Search results for: error estimate

Authors: Fatma Mohamed Magdy Badr El Dine, Amr Mohamed Abd Allah

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Introduction: Age estimation of individuals is one of the crucial steps in forensic practice. Different traditional methods rely on the length of the diaphysis of long bones of limbs, epiphyseal-diaphyseal union, fusion of the primary ossification centers as well as dental eruption. However, there is a growing need for the development of precise and reliable methods to estimate age, especially in cases where dismembered corpses, burnt bodies, purified or fragmented parts are recovered. Teeth are the hardest and indestructible structure in the human body. In recent years, assessment of pulp/tooth area ratio, as an indirect quantification of secondary dentine deposition has received a considerable attention. However, scanty work has been done in Egypt in terms of applicability of pulp/tooth ratio for age estimation. Aim of the Work: The present work was designed to assess the Cameriere’s method for age estimation from pulp/tooth ratio of maxillary canines, central and lateral incisors among a sample from Egyptian population. In addition, to formulate regression equations to be used as population-based standards for age determination. Material and Methods: The present study was conducted on 270 peri-apical X-rays of maxillary canines, central and lateral incisors (collected from 131 males and 139 females aged between 19 and 52 years). The pulp and tooth areas were measured using the Adobe Photoshop software program and the pulp/tooth area ratio was computed. Linear regression equations were determined separately for canines, central and lateral incisors. Results: A significant correlation was recorded between the pulp/tooth area ratio and the chronological age. The linear regression analysis revealed a coefficient of determination (R² = 0.824 for canine, 0.588 for central incisor and 0.737 for lateral incisor teeth). Three regression equations were derived. Conclusion: As a conclusion, the pulp/tooth ratio is a useful technique for estimating age among Egyptians. Additionally, the regression equation derived from canines gave better result than the incisors.

Keywords: age determination, canines, central incisors, Egypt, lateral incisors, pulp/tooth ratio

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Authors: Oliver Ikechukwu Inyiama, Boniface Uche Ugwuanyi

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The aim of the research is to evaluate the key financial performance indicators that help both managers and their shareholders of Nigerian Banks to determine the appropriate dividend payout to their ordinary shareholders in an accounting year. Profitability, total asset, and earnings of commercial banks were selected as key performance indicators in Nigeria Banking Sector. They represent the independent variables of the study while dividend per share is the proxy for the dividend paid on ordinary shares which represent the dependent variable. The effect of profitability, total asset and earnings on dividend per share were evaluated through the ordinary least square method of multiple regression analysis. Test for normality of frequency distribution was conducted through descriptive statistics such as Jacque Bera Statistic, skewness and kurtosis. Rate of dividend payout was subsequently applied as an alternate dependent variable to test for robustness of the earlier results. The 64% adjusted R-squared of the pooled data indicates that profitability, total asset, and earnings explain the variation in dividend per share during the period under research while the remaining 36% variation in dividend per share could be explained by changes in other variables not captured by this study as well as the error term. The study concentrated on four leading Nigeria Commercial Banks namely; First Bank of Nigeria Plc, GTBank Plc, United Bank for Africa Plc and Zenith International Bank Plc. Dividend per share was found to be positively affected by total assets and earnings of the commercial banks. However, profitability which was proxied by profit after tax had a negative effect on dividend per share. The implication of the findings is that commercial banks in Nigeria pay more dividend when they are having a dwindling fortune in order to retain the confidence of the shareholders provided their gross earnings and size is on the increase. Therefore, the management and board of directors of Nigeria commercial banks should apply decent marketing strategies to enhance earnings through investment in profitable ventures for an improved dividend payout rate.

Keywords: assets, banks, indicators, performance, profitability, shares

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Agim Kukelii, Gevorg Sargsyan

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This study, focusing on the base regional area (county level), estimates the effect of natural disaster damages on aggregate personal income, aggregate wages, wages per worker, aggregate employment, and aggregate income transfer. The study further estimates the dynamics of personal income, employment, and wages under natural disaster shocks. Southeast Texas, located at the center of Golf Coast, is hit by meteorological and hydrological caused natural disasters yearly. On average, there are more than four natural disasters per year that cane an estimated damage average of 2.2% of real personal income. The study uses the panel data method to estimate the average effect of natural disasters on the area’s economy (personal income, wages, employment, and income transfer). It also uses Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model to study the dynamics of macroeconomic variables under natural disaster shocks. The study finds that the average effect of natural disasters is positive for personal income and income transfer and is negative for wages and employment. The PVAR and the impulse response function estimates reveal that natural disaster shocks cause a decrease in personal income, employment, and wages. However, the economy’s variables bounce back after three years. The novelty of this study rests on several aspects. First, this is the first study to investigate the effects of natural disasters on macroeconomic variables at a regional level. Second, the study uses direct measures of natural disaster damages. Third, the study estimates that the time that the local economy takes to absorb the natural disaster damages shocks is three years. This is a relatively good reaction to the local economy, therefore, adding to the “resiliency” hypothesis. The study has several implications for policymakers, businesses, and households. First, this study serves to increase the awareness of local stakeholders that natural disaster damages do worsen, macroeconomic variables, such as personal income, employment, and wages beyond the immediate damages to residential and commercial properties, physical infrastructure, and discomfort in daily lives. Second, the study estimates that these effects linger on the economy on average for three years, which would require policymakers to factor in the time area need to be on focus.

Keywords: natural disaster damages, macroeconomics effects, PVAR, panel data

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Altayeb Abdalla Ahmed

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Skeletal phenotype is a product of a balanced interaction between genetics and environmental factors throughout different life stages. Therefore, interlimb proportions are variable between populations. Although interlimb proportion indices have been used in anthropology in assessing the influence of various environmental factors on limbs, an extensive literature review revealed that there is a paucity of published research assessing interlimb part correlations and possibility of reconstruction. Hence, this study aims to assess the relationships between upper and lower limb parts and develop regression formulae to reconstruct the parts from one another. The left upper arm length, ulnar length, wrist breadth, hand length, hand breadth, tibial length, bimalleolar breadth, foot length, and foot breadth of 376 right-handed subjects, comprising 187 males and 189 females (aged 25-35 years), were measured. Initially, the data were analyzed using basic univariate analysis and independent t-tests; then sex-specific simple and multiple linear regression models were used to estimate upper limb parts from lower limb parts and vice-versa. The results of this study indicated significant sexual dimorphism for all variables. The results indicated a significant correlation between the upper and lower limbs parts (p < 0.01). Linear and multiple (stepwise) regression equations were developed to reconstruct the limb parts in the presence of a single or multiple dimension(s) from the other limb. Multiple stepwise regression equations generated better reconstructions than simple equations. These results are significant in forensics as it can aid in identification of multiple isolated limb parts particularly during mass disasters and criminal dismemberment. Although a DNA analysis is the most reliable tool for identification, its usage has multiple limitations in undeveloped countries, e.g., cost, facility availability, and trained personnel. Furthermore, it has important implication in plastic and orthopedic reconstructive surgeries. This study is the only reported study assessing the correlation and prediction capabilities between many of the upper and lower dimensions. The present study demonstrates a significant correlation between the interlimb parts in both sexes, which indicates a possibility to reconstruction using regression equations.

Keywords: anthropometry, correlation, limb, Sudanese

Procedia PDF Downloads 268

Authors: K. Tesfamariam, S. Gebreyesus, C. Lachat, P. Kolsteren, S. De Saeger, M. De Boevre, A. Argaw

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Aflatoxins are toxic secondary metabolites produced by Aspergillus fungi, which are ubiquitously present in the food supplies of low- and middle-income countries. Studies of maternal aflatoxin exposure and fetal outcomes are mainly focused on size at birth and the effect on intrauterine fetal growth has not been assessed using repeated longitudinal fetal biometry across gestation. Therefore, this study intends to assess the association between chronic aflatoxin exposure during pregnancy and fetal growth trajectories in a rural Ethiopian setting. In a prospective cohort study, we enrolled 492 pregnant women. A phlebotomist collected 5 mL of a venous blood sample from eligible women before 28 completed weeks of gestation and aflatoxin B1-lysine concentration was determined using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The mean (±SD) gestational age was 19.1 (3.71) weeks at enrollment, and 28.5 (3.51) and 34.5 (2.44) weeks of gestation at the second and third rounds of ultrasound measurements, respectively. Estimated fetal weight was expressed in centiles using the INTERGROWTH-21st reference. We fitted a multivariable linear mixed-effects model to estimate the rate of fetal growth between aflatoxin-exposed (i.e., aflatoxin B1-lysine concentration above or equal to the limit of detection) and non-exposed mothers in the study. Mothers had a mean (±SD) age of 26.0 (4.58) years. The median (P25, P75) serum AFB1-lysine concentration was 12.6 (0.93, 96.9) pg/mg albumin, and aflatoxin exposure was observed in 86.6% of maternal blood samples. Eighty-five percent of the women enrolled provided at least two ultrasound measurements for analysis. On average, the aflatoxin-exposed group had a significantly lower change over time in fetal weight-for-gestational age centile than the unexposed group (ß = -1.01 centiles/week, 95% CI: -1.87, -0.15, p = 0.02). Chronic maternal AF exposure is associated with lower fetal weight gain over time. Our findings emphasize the importance of nutrition-sensitive strategies to mitigate dietary aflatoxin exposure as well as adopting food safety measures in low-income settings, particularly during the fetal period of development.

Keywords: aflatoxin, fetal growth, low-income setting, mycotoxins

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Kwan Hee Han

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External environment of enterprise is rapidly changing majorly by global competition, cost reduction pressures, and new technology. In these situations, production scheduling function plays a critical role to meet customer requirements and to attain the goal of operational efficiency. It deals with short-term decision making in the production process of the whole supply chain. The major task of production scheduling is to seek a balance between customer orders and limited resources. In manufacturing companies, this task is so difficult because it should efficiently utilize resource capacity under the careful consideration of many interacting constraints. At present, many computerized software solutions have been utilized in many enterprises to generate a realistic production schedule to overcome the complexity of schedule generation. However, most production scheduling systems do not provide sufficient information about the validity of the generated schedule except limited statistics. Process mining only recently emerged as a sub-discipline of both data mining and business process management. Process mining techniques enable the useful analysis of a wide variety of processes such as process discovery, conformance checking, and bottleneck analysis. In this study, the performance of generated production schedule is evaluated by mining event log data of production scheduling software system by using the process mining techniques since every software system generates event logs for the further use such as security investigation, auditing and error bugging. An application of process mining approach is proposed for the validation of the goodness of production schedule generated by scheduling software systems in this study. By using process mining techniques, major evaluation criteria such as utilization of workstation, existence of bottleneck workstations, critical process route patterns, and work load balance of each machine over time are measured, and finally, the goodness of production schedule is evaluated. By using the proposed process mining approach for evaluating the performance of generated production schedule, the quality of production schedule of manufacturing enterprises can be improved.

Keywords: data mining, event log, process mining, production scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: Samaneh Poormohammadi, Farid Golkar, Vahideh Khatibi Sarabi

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Climate change and consecutive droughts have increased the importance of using rainwater harvesting methods. One of the methods of rainwater harvesting and, in other words, the management of atmospheric water resources is the use of weather modification technologies. Weather modification (also known as weather control) is the act of intentionally manipulating or altering the weather. The most common form of weather modification is cloud seeding, which increases rain or snow, usually for the purpose of increasing the local water supply. Cloud seeding operations in Iran have been married since 1999 in central Iran with the aim of harvesting rainwater and reducing the effects of drought. In this research, we analyze the results of cloud seeding operations in the Simindashtplain in northern Iran. Rainwater harvesting with the help of cloud seeding technology has been evaluated through its effects on surface water and underground water. For this purpose, two different methods have been used to estimate runoff. The first method is the US Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number method. Another method, known as the reasoning method, has also been used. In order to determine the infiltration rate of underground water, the balance reports of the comprehensive water plan of the country have been used. In this regard, the study areas located in the target area of each province have been extracted by drawing maps of the influence coefficients of each area in the GIS software. It should be mentioned that the infiltration coefficients were taken from the balance sheet reports of the country's comprehensive water plan. Then, based on the area of each study area, the weighted average of the infiltration coefficient of the study areas located in the target area of each province is considered as the infiltration coefficient of that province. Results show that the amount of water extracted from the rain with the help of cloud seeding projects in Simindasht is as follows: an increase in runoff 63.9 million cubic meters (with SCS equation) or 51.2 million cubic meters (with logical equation) and an increase in ground water resources: 40.5 million cubic meters.

Keywords: rainwater harvesting, ground water, atmospheric water resources, weather modification, cloud seeding

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Timilehin Martins Oyinloye, Won Byong Yoon

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Simulation technology is being adopted in many industries, with research focusing on the development of new ways in which technology becomes embedded within production, services, and society in general. 3D printing (3DP) technology is fast developing in the food industry. However, the limited processability of high-performance material restricts the robustness of the process in some cases. Significantly, the printability of materials becomes the foundation for extrusion-based 3DP, with residual stress being a major challenge in the printing of complex geometry. In many situations, the trial-a-error method is being used to determine the optimum printing condition, which results in time and resource wastage. In this report, the analysis of 3 moisture levels for surimi paste was investigated for an optimum 3DP material and printing conditions by probing its rheology, flow characteristics in the nozzle, and post-deposition process using the finite element method (FEM) model. Rheological tests revealed that surimi pastes with 82% moisture are suitable for 3DP. According to the FEM model, decreasing the nozzle diameter from 1.2 mm to 0.6 mm, increased the die swell from 9.8% to 14.1%. The die swell ratio increased due to an increase in the pressure gradient (1.15107 Pa to 7.80107 Pa) at the nozzle exit. The nozzle diameter influenced the fluid properties, i.e., the shear rate, velocity, and pressure in the flow field, as well as the residual stress and the deformation of the printed sample, according to FEM simulation. The post-printing stability of the model was investigated using the additive layer manufacturing (ALM) model. The ALM simulation revealed that the residual stress and total deformation of the sample were dependent on the nozzle diameter. A small nozzle diameter (0.6 mm) resulted in a greater total deformation (0.023), particularly at the top part of the model, which eventually resulted in the sample collapsing. As the nozzle diameter increased, the accuracy of the model improved until the optimum nozzle size (1.0 mm). Validation with 3D-printed surimi products confirmed that the nozzle diameter was a key parameter affecting the geometry accuracy of 3DP of surimi paste.

Keywords: 3D printing, deformation analysis, die swell, numerical simulation, surimi paste

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Authors: Punit Gandhi, J. C. Brezet, Tim Gorter, Uchechi Obinna

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This paper introduces how weather forecasting could help in more efficient energy management for smart homes with the use of Home Energy Management Systems (HEMS). The paper also focuses on educating consumers and helping them make more informed decisions while using the HEMS. A combined approach of technical and user perspective has been selected to develop a novel HEMS-product-service combination in a more comprehensive manner. The current HEMS switches on/off the energy intensive appliances based on the fluctuating electricity tariffs, but with weather forecasting, it is possible to shift the time of use of energy intensive appliances to maximum electricity production from the renewable energy system installed in the house. Also, it is possible to estimate the heating/cooling load of the house for the day ahead demand. Hence, relevant insight is gained in the expected energy production and consumption load for the next day, facilitating better (more efficient, peak shaved, cheaper, etc.) energy management practices for smart homes. In literature, on the user perspective, it has been observed that consumers lose interest in using HEMS after three to four months. Therefore, to further help in better energy management practices, the new system had to be designed in a way that consumers would sustain their interaction with the system on a structural basis. It is hypothesized that, if consumers feel more comfortable with using such system, it would lead to a prolonged usage, including more energy savings and hence financial savings. To test the hypothesis, a survey for the HEMS is conducted, to which 59 valid responses were recorded. Analysis of the survey helped in designing a system which imparts better information about the energy production and consumption to the consumers. It is also found from the survey that, consumers like a variety of options and they do not like a constant reminder of what they should do. Hence, the final system is designed to encourage consumers to make an informed decision about their energy usage with a wide variety of behavioral options available. It is envisaged that the new system will be tested in several pioneering smart energy grid projects in both the Netherlands and India, with a continued ‘design thinking’ approach, combining the technical and user perspective, as the basis for further improvements.

Keywords: weather forecasting, smart grid, renewable energy forecasting, user defined HEMS

Procedia PDF Downloads 206

Authors: Zdzislaw Kaminski, Zbigniew Czyz, Tytus Tulwin

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This paper describes the geometrical model, algorithm and CFD simulation of an airflow around a Vertical Axis Wind Turbine rotor. A solver, ANSYS Fluent, was applied for the numerical simulation. Numerical simulation, unlike experiments, enables us to validate project assumptions when it is designed to avoid a costly preparation of a model or a prototype for a bench test. This research focuses on the rotor designed according to patent no PL 219985 with its blades capable of modifying their working surfaces, i.e. absorbing wind kinetic energy. The operation of this rotor is based on a regulation of blade angle α between the top and bottom parts of blades mounted on an axis. If angle α increases, the working surface which absorbs wind kinetic energy also increases. CFD calculations enable us to compare aerodynamic characteristics of forces acting on rotor working surfaces and specify rotor operation parameters like torque or turbine assembly power output. This paper is part of the research to improve an efficiency of a rotor assembly and it contains investigation of the impact of a blade angle of wind turbine working blades on the power output as a function of rotor torque, specific rotational speed and wind speed. The simulation was made for wind speeds ranging from 3.4 m/s to 6.2 m/s and blade angles of 30°, 60°, 90°. The simulation enables us to create a mathematical model to describe how aerodynamic forces acting each of the blade of the studied rotor are generated. Also, the simulation results are compared with the wind tunnel ones. This investigation enables us to estimate the growth in turbine power output if a blade angle changes. The regulation of blade angle α enables a smooth change in turbine rotor power, which is a kind of safety measures if the wind is strong. Decreasing blade angle α reduces the risk of damaging or destroying a turbine that is still in operation and there is no complete rotor braking as it is in other Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines. This work has been financed by the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, mathematical model, numerical analysis, power, renewable energy, wind turbine

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Pouneh Soleimaninejadian, Chengyu Yang

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In this paper, we use data on Household Income and Expenditure survey of Statistics Centre of Iran, conducted from 2005-2014, to calculate several inequality measures and to estimate the effects of Iran’s targeted subsidy reform act on consumption and income inequality. We first calculate Gini coefficients for income and consumption in order to study the relation between the two and also the effects of subsidy reform. Results show that consumption inequality has not been always mirroring changes in income inequality. However, both Gini coefficients indicate that subsidy reform caused improvement in inequality. Then we calculate Generalized Entropy Index based on consumption and income for years before and after the Subsidy Reform Act of 2010 in order to have a closer look into the changes in internal structure of inequality after subsidy reforms. We find that the improvement in income inequality is mostly caused by the decrease in inequality of lower income individuals. At the same time consumption inequality has been decreased as a result of more equal consumption in both lower and higher income groups. Moreover, the increase in Engle coefficient after the subsidy reform shows that a bigger portion of income is allocated to consumption on food which is a sign of lower living standard in general. This increase in Engle coefficient is due to rise in inflation rate and relative increase in price of food which partially is another consequence of subsidy reform. We have conducted some experiments on effect of subsidy payments and possible effects of change on distribution pattern and amount of cash subsidy payments on income inequality. Result of the effect of cash payments on income inequality shows that it leads to a definite decrease in income inequality and had a bigger share in improvement of rural areas compared to those of urban households. We also examine the possible effect of constant payments on the increasing income inequality for years after 2011. We conclude that reduction in value of payments as a result of inflation plays an important role regardless of the fact that there may be other reasons. We finally experiment with alternative allocations of transfers while keeping the total amount of cash transfers constant or make it smaller through eliminating three higher deciles from the cash payment program, the result shows that income equality would be improved significantly.

Keywords: consumption inequality, generalized entropy index, income inequality, Irans subsidy reform

Procedia PDF Downloads 203

Authors: Abram Zoltan

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Over the past hundred years, human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, have released enough carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to dissipate additional heat into the lower atmosphere and affect the global climate. Climate change affects many social and environmental determinants of health: clean air, safe drinking water, and adequate food. Our aim is to draw attention to the effects of climate change on the health and health care system. Improving climate awareness and the knowledge related to climate change's health impacts are essential among medical students and practicing medical doctors. Therefore, in their everyday practice, they also need some assistance and up-to-date knowledge of how climate change can endanger human health and deal with these novel health problems. Our activity, based on the cooperation of more universities, aims to develop new curriculum outlines and learning materials on climate change's health impacts for medical schools. Special attention is intended to pay to the possible preventative measures against these impacts. For all of this, the project plans to create new curriculum outlines and learning materials for medical students, elaborate methodological guidelines and create training materials for medical doctors' postgraduate learning programs. The target groups of the project are medical students, educational staff of medical schools and universities, practicing medical doctors with special attention to the general practitioners and family doctors. We had searched various surveys, domestic and international studies about the effects of climate change and statistical estimation of the possible consequences. The health effects of climate change can be measured only approximately by considering only a fraction of the potential health effects and assuming continued economic growth and health progress. We can estimate that climate change is expected to cause about 250,000 more deaths. We conclude that climate change is one of the most serious problems of the 21st century, affecting all populations. In the short- to medium-term, the health effects of climate change will be determined mainly by human vulnerability. In the longer term, the effects depend increasingly on the extent to which transformational action is taken now to reduce emissions. We can contribute to reducing environmental pollution by raising awareness and by educating the population.

Keywords: climate change, health impacts, medical students, education

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Nilima Barman, M. Atiqul Haque, Debabrata Ghosh

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Background: Zinc, one of the vital micronutrients, has an incredible role in the immune system. Hypozincemia affects host defense by reducing the number of circulating T cells and phagocytosis activity of other cells which ultimately impair cell-mediated immunity 1, 2. The immune system is detrimentally suppressed in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) 3, 4, a major threat of TB control worldwide5. As zinc deficiency causes immune suppression, we assume that it might have a role in the development of MDR-TB. Objectives: To estimate the serum zinc level in newly diagnosed multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in comparison with that of newly diagnosed pulmonary TB (NdPTB) and healthy individuals. Materials and Methods: This study was carried out in the department of Public Health and Informatics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University, Dhaka in collaboration with National Institute of Diseases of the Chest Hospital (NIDCH), Bangladesh from March’ 2012 to February 2013. A total of 337 respondents, of them 107 were MDR TB patients enrolled from NIDCH, 69 were NdPTB and 161 were healthy adults. All NdPTB patients and healthy adults were randomly selected from Sirajdikhan subdistrict of Munshiganj District. It is a rural community 22 kilometer south from capital city Dhaka. Serum zinc level was estimated by atomic absorption spectrophotometry method from early morning fasting blood sample. The evaluation of serum zinc level was done according to normal range from 70 to120 µgm/dL6. Results: Males were predominant in study groups (p>0.05). Mean (sd) serum zinc levels in MDR-TB, NdPTB and healthy adult group were 65.14 (12.52), 75.22(15.89), and 87.98 (21.80) μgm/dL respectively and differences were statistically significant (F=52.08, P value<0.001). After multiple comparison test (Bonferroni test) significantly lower level of serum zinc was found in MDRTB group than NdPTB and healthy adults (p<.001). Point biserial correlation showed a negative association of having MDR TB and serum zinc level (r= -.578; p value <0.001). Conclusion: The significant low level of serum zinc in MDR-TB patients suggested impaired immune status. We recommended for further exploration of low level of serum zinc as risk factor of MDR TB.

Keywords: Bangladesh, immune status, multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, serum zinc

Procedia PDF Downloads 559

Authors: Caglayan Hizal, Kutay Yuceturk, Ertugrul Turker Uzun, Hasan Ceylan, Engin Aktas, Gursoy Turan

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Monitoring concepts for structural systems have been investigated by researchers for decades since such tools are quite convenient to determine intervention planning of structures. Despite the considerable development in this regard, the efficient use of monitoring data in reliability assessment, and prediction models are still in need of improvement in their efficiency. More specifically, reliability-based seismic risk assessment of engineering structures may play a crucial role in the post-earthquake decision-making process for the structures. After an earthquake, professionals could identify heavily damaged structures based on visual observations. Among these, it is hard to identify the ones with minimum signs of damages, even if they would experience considerable structural degradation. Besides, visual observations are open to human interpretations, which make the decision process controversial, and thus, less reliable. In this context, when a continuous monitoring system has been previously installed on the corresponding structure, this decision process might be completed rapidly and with higher confidence by means of the observed data. At this stage, the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) procedure has an important role since it can make it possible to estimate the system reliability based on a recursively updated mathematical model. Therefore, integrating an SHM procedure into the reliability assessment process comes forward as an important challenge due to the arising uncertainties for the updated model in case of the environmental, material and earthquake induced changes. In this context, this study presents a case study on SHM-integrated reliability assessment of the continuously monitored progressively damaged systems. The objective of this study is to get instant feedback on the current state of the structure after an extreme event, such as earthquakes, by involving the observed data rather than the visual inspections. Thus, the decision-making process after such an event can be carried out on a rational basis. In the near future, this can give wing to the design of self-reported structures which can warn about its current situation after an extreme event.

Keywords: condition assessment, vibration-based SHM, reliability analysis, seismic risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Jonghyuk Yoon, Hyoungwoon Song

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Recently, there are lots of increasing interest in a smart farming that represents application of modern Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) into agriculture since it provides a methodology to optimize production efficiencies by managing growing conditions of crops automatically. In order to obtain high performance and stability for smart greenhouse, it is important to identify the effect of various working parameters such as capacity of ventilation fan, vent opening area and etc. In the present study, a 3-dimensional CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) simulation for single-span greenhouse was conducted using the commercial program, Ansys CFX 18.0. The numerical simulation for single-span greenhouse was implemented to figure out the internal thermal and flow characteristics. In order to numerically model solar radiation that spread over a wide range of wavelengths, the multiband model that discretizes the spectrum into finite bands of wavelength based on Wien’s law is applied to the simulation. In addition, absorption coefficient of vinyl varied with the wavelength bands is also applied based on Beer-Lambert Law. To validate the numerical method applied herein, the numerical results of the temperature at specific monitoring points were compared with the experimental data. The average error rates (12.2~14.2%) between them was shown and numerical results of temperature distribution are in good agreement with the experimental data. The results of the present study can be useful information for the design of various greenhouses. This work was supported by Korea Institute of Planning and Evaluation for Technology in Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (IPET) through Advanced Production Technology Development Program, funded by Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA)(315093-03).

Keywords: single-span greenhouse, CFD (computational fluid dynamics), solar radiation, multiband model, absorption coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Carmen Silvia Gabriel, Dsniele Bernardi da Costa, Andrea Bernardes, Sabrina Elias Mikael, Daniele da Silva Ramos

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The goal of this quantitative study is to investigate patient safety culture from the perspective of professional from the hospital nursing team.It was conducted in two Brazilian hospitals,.The sample included 282 nurses Data collection occurred in 2013, through the questionnaire Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture.Based on the assessment of the dimensions is stressed that, in the dimension teamwork across hospital units, 69.4% of professionals agree that when a lot of work needs to be done quickly, they work together as a team; about the dimension supervisor/ manager expectations and actions promoting safety, 70.2% agree that their supervisor overlooks patient safety problems.Related to organizational learning and continuous improvement, 56.5% agree that there is evaluation of the effectiveness of the changes after its implementation.On hospital management support for patient safety, 52.8% refer that the actions of hospital management show that patient safety is a top priority.On the overall perception of patient safety, 57.2% disagree that patient safety is never compromised due to higher amount of work to be completed.In what refers to feedback and communication about error, 57.7% refer that always and usually receive such information. Relative to communication openness, 42.9% said they never or rarely feel free to question the decisions / actions of their superiors.On frequency of event reporting, 64.7% said often and always notify events with no damages to patients..About teamwork across hospital units is noted similarity between the percentages of agreement and disagreement, as on the item there is a good cooperation among hospital units that need to work together, that indicates 41.4% and 40.5% respectively.Related to adequacy of professionals, 77.8 % disagree on the existence of sufficient amount of employees to do the job, 52.4% agree that shift changes are problematic for patients. On nonpunitive response to errors, 71.7% indicate that when an event is reported it seems that the focus is on the person.On the patient safety grade of the institution, 41.6 % classified it as very good. it is concluded that there are positive points in the safety culture, and some weaknesses as a punitive culture and impaired patient safety due to work overload .

Keywords: quality of health care, health services evaluation, safety culture, patient safety, nursing team

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Yaghoubi N., Moore Z., Van Der Veen S. M., Pidcoe P. E., Thomas J. S., Dexheimer B.

Abstract:

Optoelectronic 3D motion capture systems, such as the Vicon kinematic system, are widely utilized in biomedical research to track joint motion. These systems are considered powerful and accurate measurement tools with <2 mm average error. However, these systems are costly and may be difficult to implement and utilize in a clinical setting. 3D virtual reality (VR) is gaining popularity as an affordable and accessible tool to investigate motor control and perception in a controlled, immersive environment. The HTC Vive VR system includes puck-style trackers that seamlessly integrate into its VR environments. These affordable, wireless, lightweight trackers may be more feasible for clinical kinematic data collection. However, the accuracy of HTC Vive Trackers (3.0), when compared to optoelectronic 3D motion capture systems, remains unclear. In this preliminary study, we compared the HTC Vive Tracker system to a Vicon kinematic system in a simulated lumbar flexion task. A 6-DOF robot arm (SCORBOT ER VII, Eshed Robotec/RoboGroup, Rosh Ha’Ayin, Israel) completed various reaching movements to mimic increasing levels of hip flexion (15°, 30°, 45°). Light reflective markers, along with one HTC Vive Tracker (3.0), were placed on the rigid segment separating the elbow and shoulder of the robot. We compared position measures simultaneously collected from both systems. Our preliminary analysis shows no significant differences between the Vicon motion capture system and the HTC Vive tracker in the Z axis, regardless of hip flexion. In the X axis, we found no significant differences between the two systems at 15 degrees of hip flexion but minimal differences at 30 and 45 degrees, ranging from .047 cm ± .02 SE (p = .03) at 30 degrees hip flexion to .194 cm ± .024 SE (p < .0001) at 45 degrees of hip flexion. In the Y axis, we found a minimal difference for 15 degrees of hip flexion only (.743 cm ± .275 SE; p = .007). This preliminary analysis shows that the HTC Vive Tracker may be an appropriate, affordable option for gross motor motion capture when the Vicon system is not available, such as in clinical settings. Further research is needed to compare these two motion capture systems in different body poses and for different body segments.

Keywords: lumbar, vivetracker, viconsystem, 3dmotion, ROM

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Ubon Asuquo Essien, Okwudili Bismark Ibeagwa, Daberechi Peace Ubabuko

Abstract:

The Broiler Poultry subsector is dominated by small scale production with low aggregate output. The high cost of inputs currently experienced in Nigeria tends to aggravate the situation; hence many broiler farmers struggle to break-even. This study was designed to examine income and input factors in small scale deep liter broiler production in Imo state, Nigeria. Specifically, the study examined; socio-economic characteristics of small scale deep liter broiler producing Poultry farmers; estimate cost and returns of broiler production in the area; analyze input factors in broiler production in the area and examined marketability, age and profitability of the enterprise. A multi-stage sampling technique was adopted in selecting 60 small scale broiler farmers who use deep liter system from 6 communities through the use of structured questionnaire. The socioeconomic characteristics of the broiler farmers and the profitability/ marketability age of the birds were described using descriptive statistical tools such as frequencies, means and percentages. Gross margin analysis was used to analyze the cost and returns to broiler production, while Cobb Douglas production function was employed to analyze input factors in broiler production. The result of the study revealed that the cost of feed (P<0.1), deep liter material (P<0.05) and medication (P<0.05) had a significant positive relationship with the gross return of broiler farmers in the study area, while cost of labour, fuel and day old chicks were not significant. Furthermore, Gross profit margin of the farmers who market their broiler at the 8th week of rearing was 80.7%; and 78.7% and 60.8% for farmers who market at the 10th week and 12th week of rearing, respectively. The business is, therefore, profitable but at varying degree. Government and Development partners should make deliberate efforts to curb the current rise in the prices of poultry feeds, drugs and timber materials used as bedding so as to widen the profit margin and encourage more farmers to go into the business. The farmers equally need more technical assistance from extension agents with regards to timely and profitable marketing.

Keywords: broilers, factor analysis, income, small scale

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Khashayar Nasrifar

Abstract:

Ionic liquids (ILs) exhibit particular properties exemplified by extremely low vapor pressure and high thermal stability. The properties of ILs can be tailored by proper selection of cations and anions. As such, ILs are appealing as potential solvents to substitute traditional solvents with high vapor pressure. One of the IL properties required in chemical and process design is density. In developing corresponding state liquid density correlations, scaling hypothesis is often used. The hypothesis expresses the temperature dependence of saturated liquid densities near the vapor-liquid critical point as a function of reduced temperature. Extending the temperature dependence, several successful correlations were developed to accurately correlate the densities of normal liquids from the triple point to a critical point. Applying mixing rules, the liquid density correlations are extended to liquid mixtures as well. ILs are not molecular liquids, and they are not classified among normal liquids either. Also, ILs are often used where the condition is far from equilibrium. Nevertheless, in calculating the properties of ILs, the use of corresponding state correlations would be useful if no experimental data were available. With well-known generalized saturated liquid density correlations, the accuracy in predicting the density of ILs is not that good. An average error of 4-5% should be expected. In this work, a data bank was compiled. A simplified and concise corresponding state saturated liquid density correlation is proposed by phenomena-logically modifying reduced temperature using the temperature-dependence for an interacting parameter of the Soave-Redlich-Kwong equation of state. This modification improves the temperature dependence of the developed correlation. Parametrization was next performed to optimize the three global parameters of the correlation. The correlation was then applied to the ILs in our data bank with satisfactory predictions. The correlation of IL density applied at 0.1 MPa and was tested with an average uncertainty of around 2%. No adjustable parameter was used. The critical temperature, critical volume, and acentric factor were all required. Methods to extend the predictions to higher pressures (200 MPa) were also devised. Compared to other methods, this correlation was found more accurate. This work also presents the chronological order of developing such correlations dealing with ILs. The pros and cons are also expressed.

Keywords: correlation, corresponding state principle, ionic liquid, density

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: M. Amparo Nunez-Andres, Nieves Lantada

Abstract:

One of the most harmful geological risks is rockfalls. They cause both economic lost, damaged in buildings and infrastructures, and personal ones. Therefore, in order to estimate the risk of the exposed elements, it is necessary to know the mechanism of this kind of events, since the characteristics of the rock walls, to the propagation of fragments generated by the initial detached rock mass. In the framework of the research RockModels project, several inventories of rockfalls were carried out along the northeast of the Spanish peninsula and the Mallorca island. These inventories have general information about the events, although the important fact is that they contained detailed information about fragmentation. Specifically, the IBSD (Insitu Block Size Distribution) is obtained by photogrammetry from drone or TLS (Terrestrial Laser Scanner) and the RBSD (Rock Block Size Distribution) from the volume of the fragment in the deposit measured by hand. In order to share all this information with other scientists, engineers, members of civil protection, and stakeholders, it is necessary a platform accessible from the internet and following interoperable standards. In all the process, open-software have been used: PostGIS 2.1., Geoserver, and OpenLayers library. In the first step, a spatial database was implemented to manage all the information. We have used the data specifications of INSPIRE for natural risks adding specific and detailed data about fragmentation distribution. The next step was to develop a WMS with Geoserver. A previous phase was the creation of several views in PostGIS to show the information at different scales of visualization and with different degrees of detail. In the first view, the sites are identified with a point, and basic information about the rockfall event is facilitated. In the next level of zoom, at medium scale, the convex hull of the rockfall appears with its real shape and the source of the event and fragments are represented by symbols. The queries at this level offer a major detail about the movement. Eventually, the third level shows all elements: deposit, source, and blocks, in their real size, if it is possible, and in their real localization. The last task was the publication of all information in a web mapping site (www.rockdb.upc.edu) with data classified by levels using libraries in JavaScript as OpenLayers.

Keywords: geological risk, web mapping, WMS, rockfalls

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Mane Darbinyan, Lusine Hayrapetyan, Elen Matevosyan

Abstract:

Artificial Intelligence in Education (AIED) has been created to help students get ready for the workforce, and over the past 25 years, it has grown significantly, offering a variety of technologies to support academic, institutional, and administrative services. However, this is still challenging, especially considering the labor market's rapid change. While choosing a career, people face various obstacles because they do not take into consideration their own preferences, which might lead to many other problems like shifting jobs, work stress, occupational infirmity, reduced productivity, and manual error. Besides preferences, people should properly evaluate their technical and non-technical skills, as well as their personalities. Professional counseling has become a difficult undertaking for counselors due to the wide range of career choices brought on by changing technological trends. It is necessary to close this gap by utilizing technology that makes sophisticated predictions about a person's career goals based on their personality. Hence, there is a need to create an automated model that would help in decision-making based on user inputs. Improving career guidance can be achieved by embedding machine learning into the career consulting ecosystem. There are various systems of career guidance that work based on the same logic, such as the classification of applicants, matching applications with appropriate departments or jobs, making predictions, and providing suitable recommendations. Methodologies like KNN, Neural Networks, K-means clustering, D-Tree, and many other advanced algorithms are applied in the fields of data and compute some data, which is helpful to predict the right careers. Besides helping users with their career choice, these systems provide numerous opportunities which are very useful while making this hard decision. They help the candidate to recognize where he/she specifically lacks sufficient skills so that the candidate can improve those skills. They are also capable to offer an e-learning platform, taking into account the user's lack of knowledge. Furthermore, users can be provided with details on a particular job, such as the abilities required to excel in that industry.

Keywords: career guidance system, machine learning, career prediction, predictive decision, data mining, technical and non-technical skills

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Atefeh Bagherianziarat, Dana Hamplova

Abstract:

The inverse social gradient in life satisfaction (LS) is a well-established research finding. To estimate the influence of inequality on LS, most of the studies have explored the effect of the objective aspects of inequality or individuals’ socioeconomic status (SES). However, relatively fewer studies have confirmed recently the significant effect of the subjective aspect of inequality or subjective socioeconomic status (SSS) on life satisfaction over and above SES. In other words, it is confirmed by some studies that individuals’ perception of their unequal status in society or SSS can moderate the impact of their absolute unequal status on their life satisfaction. Nevertheless, this newly confirmed moderating link has not been affirmed to work likewise in societies with different levels of social inequality and also for people who believe in the value of equality, at different levels. In this study, we compared the moderative influence of subjective inequality on the link between objective inequality and life satisfaction. In particular, we focus on differences across welfare state regimes based on Esping-Andersen's theory. Also, we explored the moderative role of believing in the value of equality on the link between objective and subjective inequality on LS in the given societies. Since our studied variables were measured at both individual and country levels, we applied a multilevel analysis to the European Social Survey data (round 9). The results showed that people in deferent regimes reported statistically meaningful different levels of life satisfaction that is explained to different extends by their household income and their perception of their income inequality. The findings of the study supported the previous findings of the moderator influence of perceived inequality on the link between objective inequality and LS. However, this link is different in various welfare state regimes. The results of the multilevel modeling showed that country-level subjective equality is a positive predictor for individuals’ life satisfaction, while the GINI coefficient that was considered as the indicator of absolute inequality has a smaller effect on life satisfaction. Also, country-level subjective equality moderates the confirmed link between individuals’ income and their life satisfaction. It can be concluded that both individual and country-level subjective inequality slightly moderate the effect of individuals’ income on their life satisfaction.

Keywords: individual values, life satisfaction, multilevel analysis, objective inequality, subjective inequality, welfare regimes status

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Mahmoud Mourad, Ahmad Hamza H. Ali, S.Ookawara, Ali Kamel Abdel-Rahman, Nady M. Abdelkariem

Abstract:

The energy consumption of a house can be affected simultaneously by many building design factors related to its main architectural features, building elements and materials. This study focuses on the impact of passive design factors on the annual energy consumption of a suggested prototype house for single-family detached houses of 240 m2 in two floors, each floor of 120 m2 in new Egyptian cities located in (Alexandria - Cairo - Siwa - Assuit – Aswan) which resemble five different climatic zones (Northern coast – Northern upper Egypt - dessert region- Southern upper Egypt – South Egypt) respectively. This study present the effect of the passive design factors affecting the building energy consumption as building orientation, building material (walls, roof and slabs), building type (residential, educational, commercial), building occupancy (type of occupant, no. of occupant, age), building landscape and site selection, building envelope and fenestration (glazing material, shading), and building plan form. This information can be used to estimate the approximate saving in energy consumption, which would result on a change in the design datum for the future houses development, and to identify the major design problems for energy efficiency. To achieve the above objective, this paper presents a study for the factors affecting on the building energy consumption in the hot arid area in new Egyptian cities in five different climatic zones , followed by defining the energy needs for different utilization in this suggested prototype house. Consequently, a detailed analysis of the available Renewable Energy utilizations technologies used in the suggested home, and a calculation of the energy as a function of yearly distribution that required for this home will presented. The results obtained from building annual energy analyses show that architecture passive design factors saves about 35% of the annual energy consumption. It shows also passive cooling techniques saves about 45%, and renewable energy systems saves about 40% of the annual energy needs for this proposed home depending on the cities location on the climatic zones.

Keywords: architecture passive design factors, energy efficient homes, Egypt new cites, renewable energy technologies

Procedia PDF Downloads 370

Authors: Nabil A. A. Mohamed, Alaa A. A. Balbaa, Khaled E. Ayad

Abstract:

Osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee is the most common form of arthritis and leads to more activity limitations (e.g., disability in walking and stair climbing) than any other disease, especially in the elderly. Recently, impaired proprioceptive accuracy of the knee has been proposed as a local factor in the onset and progression of radiographic knee OA (ROA). Purpose: To compare the clinical and radiological findings in healthy with that of knee OA. Also, to determine if there is a correlation between the clinical and radiological findings in patients with knee OA. Subjects: Fifty one patients diagnosed as unilateral or bilateral knee OA with age ranged between 35-70 years, from both gender without any previous history of knee trauma or surgery, and twenty one normal subjects with age ranged from 35 - 68 years. METHODS: peak torque/body weight (PT/BW) was recorded from knee extensors at isokinetic isometric mode at angle of 45 degree. Also, the Absolute Angular Error was recorded at 45O and 30O to measure joint position sense (JPS). They made anteroposterior (AP) plain X-rays from standing semiflexed knee position and their average score of Timed Up and Go test(TUG) and WOMAC were recorded as a measure of knee pain, stiffness and function. Comparison between the mean values of different variables in the two groups was performed using unpaired student t test. The P value less or equal to 0.05 was considered significant. Results: There were significant differences between the studied variables between the experimental and control groups except the values of AAE at 30O. Also, there were no significant correlation between the clinical findings (pain, function, muscle strength and proprioception) and the severity of arthritic changes in X-rays. CONCLUSION: From the finding of the current study we can conclude that there were a significant difference between the both groups in all studied parameters (the WOMAC, functional level, quadriceps muscle strength and the joint proprioception). Also this study did not support the dependency on radiological findings in management of knee OA as the radiological features did not necessarily indicate the level of structural damage of patients with knee OA and we should consider the clinical features in our treatment plan.

Keywords: joint position sense, peak torque, proprioception, radiological knee osteoarthritis

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Ikram Elsiddig, Yacouba Djamila, Amna Hamad

Abstract:

Abstract—The worldwide increasing of using herbs in form of medicine with or without prescription medications potentiates the interactions between herbal products and conventional medicines; due to more research for herb-drug interactions are needed. for a long time hyperglycemia had been treated with several medicinal plants. A. sativum, belonging to the Liliaceae family is well known for its medicinal uses in African traditional medicine, it used for treating of many human diseases mainly diabetes, high cholesterol and high blood pressure. The purpose of this study is to determine the interaction effect between A. sativum bulb extracts and metformin drug used in diabetes treatment. The in vitro and in vivo evaluation were conducted by glucose reuptake using isolated rats hemidiaphgrams tissue and by estimate glucose tolerance in glucose-loaded wistar albino rats. The results showed that, petroleum ether, chloroform and ethyl acetate extracts were found to have activity of glucose uptake in isolated rats hemidiaphgrams of 24.11 mg/g, 19.07 mg/g and 15.66 mg/g compared to metformin drug of 17 mg/g. These activity were reducded to 17.8 mg/g, 13.59 mg/g and 14.46 mg/g after combination with metformin, metformin itself reduced to 13.59 mg/g, 14.46 mg/g and 12.71 mg/g in comination with chloroform and ethyl acetate. These decrease in activity could be due to herbal–drug interaction between the extracts of A. sativum bulb and metformin drug. The interaction between A. sativum extract and metformin was also shown by in vivo study on the induced hyperglycemic rats. The glucose level after administered of 200 mg/kg was found to be increase with 47.2 % and 17.7% at first and second hour compared to the increase of blood glucose in the control group of 82.6% and76.7%.. At fourth hour the glucose level was became less than normal with 3.4% compared to control which continue to increase with 68.2%. Dose of 400 mg/kg at first hour showed increase in blood glucose of 31.5 %, at second and fourth hours the glucose level was became less than normal with decrease of 3.2 % and 30.4%. After combination the activity was found to be less than that of extract at both high and low dose, whereas, at first and second hour, the glucose level was found to be increase with 50.4% and 21.2%, at fourth hour the glucose level was became less than normal with 14%. Therefore A. sativum could be a potential source for anti-diabetic when it used alone, and it is significant important to use the garlic extract alone instead of combined with Metformin drug in diabetes- treatment.

Keywords: Antagonistic, Garlic, Metformin, Synergistic

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Mane Darbinyan, Lusine Hayrapetyan, Elen Matevosyan

Abstract:

Artificial Intelligence in Education (AIED) has been created to help students get ready for the workforce, and over the past 25 years, it has grown significantly, offering a variety of technologies to support academic, institutional, and administrative services. However, this is still challenging, especially considering the labor market's rapid change. While choosing a career, people face various obstacles because they do not take into consideration their own preferences, which might lead to many other problems like shifting jobs, work stress, occupational infirmity, reduced productivity, and manual error. Besides preferences, people should evaluate properly their technical and non-technical skills, as well as their personalities. Professional counseling has become a difficult undertaking for counselors due to the wide range of career choices brought on by changing technological trends. It is necessary to close this gap by utilizing technology that makes sophisticated predictions about a person's career goals based on their personality. Hence, there is a need to create an automated model that would help in decision-making based on user inputs. Improving career guidance can be achieved by embedding machine learning into the career consulting ecosystem. There are various systems of career guidance that work based on the same logic, such as the classification of applicants, matching applications with appropriate departments or jobs, making predictions, and providing suitable recommendations. Methodologies like KNN, neural networks, K-means clustering, D-Tree, and many other advanced algorithms are applied in the fields of data and compute some data, which is helpful to predict the right careers. Besides helping users with their career choice, these systems provide numerous opportunities which are very useful while making this hard decision. They help the candidate to recognize where he/she specifically lacks sufficient skills so that the candidate can improve those skills. They are also capable of offering an e-learning platform, taking into account the user's lack of knowledge. Furthermore, users can be provided with details on a particular job, such as the abilities required to excel in that industry.

Keywords: career guidance system, machine learning, career prediction, predictive decision, data mining, technical and non-technical skills

Procedia PDF Downloads 44

Authors: R. Stoyanova, R. Dimova, M. Tarnovska, T. Boeva, R. Dimov, I. Doykov

Abstract:

Patient safety culture (PSC) is an essential component of quality of healthcare. Improving PSC is considered a priority in many developed countries. Specialized software platform for registration and evaluation of hospital patient safety culture has been developed with the support of the Medical University Plovdiv Project №11/2017. The aim of the study is to assess the status of PSC in Bulgarian hospitals and to compare it to that in USA and Croatian hospitals. Methods: The study was conducted from June 01 to July 31, 2018 using the web-based Bulgarian Version of the Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture Questionnaire (B-HSOPSC). Two hundred and forty-eight medical professionals from different hospitals in Bulgaria participated in the study. To quantify the differences of positive scores distributions for each of the 42 HSOPSC items between Bulgarian, Croatian and USA samples, the x²-test was applied. The research hypothesis assumed that there are no significant differences between the Bulgarian, Croatian and US PSCs. Results: The results revealed 14 significant differences in the positive scores between the Bulgarian and Croatian PSCs and 15 between the Bulgarian and the USA PSC, respectively. Bulgarian medical professionals provided less positive responses to 12 items compared with Croatian and USA respondents. The Bulgarian respondents were more positive compared to Croatians on the feedback and communication of medical errors (Items - C1, C4, C5) as well as on the employment of locum staff (A7) and the frequency of reported mistakes (D1). Bulgarian medical professionals were more positive compared with their USA colleagues on the communication of information at shift handover and across hospital units (F5, F7). The distribution of positive scores on items: ‘Staff worries that their mistakes are kept in their personnel file’ (RA16), ‘Things ‘fall between the cracks’ when transferring patients from one unit to another’ (RF3) and ‘Shift handovers are problematic for patients in this hospital’ (RF11) were significantly higher among Bulgarian respondents compared with Croatian and US respondents. Conclusions: Significant differences of positive scores distribution were found between Bulgarian and USA PSC on one hand and between Bulgarian and Croatian on the other. The study reveals that distribution of positive responses could be explained by the cultural, organizational and healthcare system differences.

Keywords: patient safety culture, healthcare, HSOPSC, medical error

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Dávid Kovács, Bálint Csanády, Dániel Boros, Iván Ivkovic, Lóránt Nagy, Dalma Tóth-Lakits, László Márkus, András Lukács

Abstract:

The modeling practice of financial instruments has seen significant change over the last decade due to the recognition of time-dependent and stochastically changing correlations among the market prices or the prices and market characteristics. To represent this phenomenon, the Stochastic Correlation Process (SCP) has come to the fore in the joint modeling of prices, offering a more nuanced description of their interdependence. This approach has allowed for the attainment of realistic tail dependencies, highlighting that prices tend to synchronize more during intense or volatile trading periods, resulting in stronger correlations. Evidence in statistical literature suggests that, similarly to the volatility, the SCP of certain stock prices follows rough paths, which can be described using fractional differential equations. However, estimating parameters for these equations often involves complex and computation-intensive algorithms, creating a necessity for alternative solutions. In this regard, the Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fOU) process from the family of fractional processes offers a promising path. We can effectively describe the rough SCP by utilizing certain transformations of the fOU. We employed neural networks to understand the behavior of these processes. We had to develop a fast algorithm to generate a valid and suitably large sample from the appropriate process to train the network. With an extensive training set, the neural network can estimate the process parameters accurately and efficiently. Although the initial focus was the fOU, the resulting model displayed broader applicability, thus paving the way for further investigation of other processes in the realm of financial mathematics. The utility of SCP extends beyond its immediate application. It also serves as a springboard for a deeper exploration of fractional processes and for extending existing models that use ordinary Wiener processes to fractional scenarios. In essence, deploying both SCP and fractional processes in financial models provides new, more accurate ways to depict market dynamics.

Keywords: fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, fractional stochastic processes, Heston model, neural networks, stochastic correlation, stochastic differential equations, stochastic volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: B. Arzhanov, A. Correia, P. Delgado, J. Meireles

Abstract:

Quad Flat No-Lead (QFN) packages have become very popular for turners, converters and audio amplifiers, among others applications, needing efficient power dissipation in small footprints. Since semiconductor junction temperature (TJ) is a critical parameter in the product quality. And to ensure that die temperature does not exceed the maximum allowable TJ, a thermal analysis conducted in an earlier development phase is essential to avoid repeated re-designs process with huge losses in cost and time. A simulation tool capable to estimate die temperature of components with QFN package was developed. Allow establish a non-empirical way to define an acceptance criterion for amount of voids in solder interface between its exposed pad and Printed Circuit Board (PCB) to be applied during industrialization process, and evaluate the impact of PCB designs parameters. Targeting PCB layout designer as an end user for the application, a user-friendly interface (GUI) was implemented allowing user to introduce design parameters in a convenient and secure way and hiding all the complexity of finite element simulation process. This cost effective tool turns transparent a simulating process and provides useful outputs after acceptable time, which can be adopted by PCB designers, preventing potential risks during the design stage and make product economically efficient by not oversizing it. This article gathers relevant information related to the design and implementation of the developed tool, presenting a parametric study conducted with it. The simulation tool was experimentally validated using a Thermal-Test-Chip (TTC) in a QFN open-cavity, in order to measure junction temperature (TJ) directly on the die under controlled and knowing conditions. Providing a short overview about standard thermal solutions and impacts in exposed pad packages (i.e. QFN), accurately describe the methods and techniques that the system designer should use to achieve optimum thermal performance, and demonstrate the effect of system-level constraints on the thermal performance of the design.

Keywords: QFN packages, exposed pads, junction temperature, thermal management and measurements

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Diogo Prosdocimi, Don Ross, Matthew Townshend

Abstract:

Road authorities are mandated within limited budgets to both deliver improved access to basic services and facilitate economic growth. This responsibility is further complicated if maintenance backlogs and funding shortfalls exist, as evident in many countries including South Africa. These conditions require authorities to make difficult prioritisation decisions, with the effect that Road Asset Management Systems with a one-dimensional focus on traffic volumes may overlook the maintenance of low-volume roads that provide isolated communities with vital access to basic services. Given these challenges, this paper overlays the full South African road network with geo-referenced information for population, primary and secondary schools, and healthcare facilities to identify the network of connective roads between communities and basic service centres. This connective network is then rationalised according to the Gross Value Added and number of jobs per mesozone, administrative and functional road classifications, speed limit, and road length, location, and name to estimate the Basic Access Road Network. A two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method, capturing a weighted assessment of drive-time to service centres and the ratio of people within a catchment area to teachers and healthcare workers, is subsequently applied to generate a Multivariate Road Index. This Index is used to assign higher maintenance priority to roads within the Basic Access Road Network that provide more people with better access to services. The relatively limited incidence of Basic Access Roads indicates that authorities could maintain the entire estimated network without exhausting the available road budget before practical economic considerations get any purchase. Despite this fact, a final case study modelling exercise is performed for the Namakwa District Municipality to demonstrate the extent to which optimal relocation of schools and healthcare facilities could minimise the Basic Access Road Network and thereby release budget for investment in roads that best promote GDP growth.

Keywords: basic access roads, multivariate road index, road prioritisation, two-step floating catchment area method

Procedia PDF Downloads 199