Search results for: demand side mangement

Authors: Priyakant Vaghela, Jagdish Prajapati

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Bending stress at the root of the gear tooth is the very important criteria in gear design and it should be kept the minimum. Minimization of bending stress at the root of the gear tooth is a recent demand from industry. This paper presents an innovative approach to obtain minimum bending stress at the root of a tooth by optimizing tooth root profile and drive side pressure angle. Circular-filleted at the root of the tooth is widely used in the design. Circular fillet creates discontinuity at the root of the tooth. So, at root stress concentration occurs. In order to minimize stress concentration, an important criterion is a G2 continuity at the blending of the gear tooth. A Bezier curve is used with G2 continuity at the root of asymmetric spur gear tooth. The comparison has been done between normal and modified tooth using ANSYS simulation. Tooth root profile and drive side pressure angle are optimized to minimize bending stress at the root of the tooth of the asymmetric involute spur gear. Von Mises stress of optimized profile is analyzed and compared with normal profile symmetric gear. Von Mises stress is reducing by 31.27% by optimization of drive side pressure angle and root profile. Stress concentration of modified gear was significantly reduced.

Keywords: asymmetric spur gear tooth, G2 continuity, pressure angle, stress concentration at the root of tooth, tooth root stress

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: M. J. Shofa, A. Hidayatno, O. M. Armand

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MRP as a production control system is appropriate for the deterministic environment. Unfortunately, most production systems such as customer demands are stochastic. Demand-Driven MRP (DDMRP) is a new approach for inventory control system, and it deals with demand uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to compare the MRP and DDMRP work for a long lead time and uncertain demand in terms of on-hand inventory levels. The evaluation is conducted through a discrete event simulation using purchased part data from an automotive company. The result is MRP gives 50,759 pcs / day while DDMRP gives 34,835 pcs / day (reduce 32%), it means DDMRP is more effective inventory control than MRP in terms of on-hand inventory levels.

Keywords: Demand-Driven MRP, long lead time, MRP, uncertain demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Norzalina Othman, Nurul Na’imy Wan, Azliza Mohd Rusli, Wan Noor Syahirah Meor Idris

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Iris detection is a process where the position of the eyes is extracted from the face images. It is a current method used for many applications such as for security purpose and drowsiness detection. This paper proposes the use of eyes detection in controlling side mirror of motor vehicles. The eyes detection method aims to make driver easy to adjust the side mirrors automatically. The system will determine the midpoint coordinate of eyes detection on RGB (color) image and the input signal from y-coordinate will send it to controller in order to rotate the angle of side mirror on vehicle. The eye position was cropped and the coordinate of midpoint was successfully detected from the circle of iris detection using Viola Jones detection and circular Hough transform methods on RGB image. The coordinate of midpoint from the experiment are tested using controller to determine the angle of rotation on the side mirrors.

Keywords: iris detection, midpoint coordinates, RGB images, side mirror

Procedia PDF Downloads 392

Authors: Liu Shengnan, Sun Liping, Zhu Jianxun

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Based on three dimensional potential flow theory, hydrodynamic response analysis is carried on the multi floating bodies system composed of FPSO moored with yoke and shuttle tanker. It considered hydrodynamic interaction between FPSO and shuttle tanker, interaction between the hull and yoke mooring systems, hawsers, fenders, and then focuses on hawsers of the side-by-side offloading system. The influence of hawsers parameters on system safety is studied in respects of hawser stiffness, length and arrangement. Through analysis in different environment conditions and two typical loading conditions, it can be found that a better safety performance can be achieved through these three ways including enlarging the number of hawsers as well as the stiffness of hawsers, changing the length and arrangement of hawsers.

Keywords: yoke mooring, side-by-side offloading, multi floating body, hawser, safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 400

Authors: Abdulrahman Abdulrahman

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A side weir is a hydraulic structure set into the side of a channel. This structure is used for water level control in channels, to divert flow from a main channel into a side channel when the water level in the main channel exceeds a specific limit and as storm overflows from urban sewerage system. Computation of water surface over the side weirs is essential to determine the flow rate of the side weir. Analytical solutions for water surface profile along rectangular side weir are available only for the special cases of rectangular and trapezoidal channels considering constant specific energy. In this paper, a rectangular side weir located in a combined (trapezoidal with exponential) channel was considered. Expanding binominal series of integer and fraction powers and the using of reduction formula of cosine function integrals, a general analytical formula was obtained for water surface profile along a side weir in a combined (trapezoidal with exponential) channel. Since triangular, rectangular, trapezoidal and parabolic cross-sections are special cases of the combined cross section, the derived formula, is applicable to triangular, rectangular, trapezoidal cross-sections as analytical solution and semi-analytical solution to parabolic cross-section with maximum relative error smaller than 0.76%. The proposed solution should be a useful engineering tool for the evaluation and design of side weirs in open channel.

Keywords: analytical solution, combined channel, exponential channel, side weirs, trapezoidal channel, water surface profile

Procedia PDF Downloads 208

Authors: Widyani Fatwa Dewi, Subroto Athor

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In a telecommunication service provider, quantity and interval of customer demand often difficult to predict due to high dependency on customer expansion strategy and technological development. Demand arrives when a customer needs to add capacity to an existing site or build a network in a new site. Because demand is uncertain for each period, and sometimes there is a null demand for several equipments, it is categorized as intermittent. This research aims to improve demand forecast quality in Indonesia's telecommunication service providers by using Artificial Neural Network. In Artificial Neural Network, the pattern or relationship within data will be analyzed using the training process, followed by the learning process as validation stage. Historical demand data for 36 periods is used to support this research. It is found that demand forecast by using Artificial Neural Network outperforms the existing method if it is reviewed on two criteria: the forecast accuracy, using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean of the sum of the Squares of the Forecasting Error (MSE), Mean Error (ME) and service level which is shown through inventory cost. This research is expected to increase the reference for a telecommunication demand forecast, which is currently still limited.

Keywords: artificial neural network, demand forecast, forecast accuracy, intermittent, service level, telecommunication

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Kaiping Xu, Aiju You, Lei Hua

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In view of the ecological environmental problems and protection needs of mountainous rivers in Zhejiang province, a suitable ecological water demand evaluation system was established based on investigation and monitoring. Taking the Kaihua river as an example, the research on ecological water demand and the current situation evaluation were carried out. The main types of ecological water demand in Majin River are basic ecological flow and lake wetland outside the river, and instream flow and water demands for water quality in Zhongcun river. In the wet season, each ecological water demand is 18.05m3/s and 2.56m3 / s, and in the dry season is 3.00m3/s and 0.61m3/s. Three indexes of flow, duration and occurrence time are used to evaluate the ecological water demand. The degree of ecological water demand in the past three years is low level of satisfaction. Meanwhile, the existing problems are analyzed, and put forward reasonable and operable safeguards and suggestions.

Keywords: Zhejiang province, mountainous river, ecological water demand, Kaihua river, evaluation

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Shruti Kohli

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The sophistication and pervasiveness of cyber-attacks are constantly growing, driven partly by technological progress, profitable applications in organized crime and state-sponsored innovation. The modernization of rail control systems has resulted in an increasing reliance on digital technology and increased the potential for security breaches and cyber-attacks. This research track showcases the need for developing a secure reusable scalable framework for enhancing cyber security of rail assets. A cyber security framework has been proposed that is being developed to detect the tell-tale signs of cyber-attacks against industrial assets.

Keywords: cyber security, rail asset, security threat, cyber ontology

Procedia PDF Downloads 404

Authors: Nadjet Brahmia

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The evolution of urban forms, the new aspects of mobility, the ways of life and economic models make public transport conventional collective low-performing on the majority of largest Algerian cities, particularly in the west of Algeria. On the other side, the information and communication technologies (ICT) open new eventualities to develop a new mode of transport which brings together both the tenders offered by the public service collective and those of the particular vehicle, suitable for urban requirements, social and environmental. Like the concrete examples made in the international countries in terms of on-demand transport systems (ODT) more particularly in the developed countries, this article has for objective the opportunity analysis to establish a service of ODT at the level of a few towns of Oran Wilaya, such a service will be subsequently spread on the totality of the Wilaya if not on the whole of Algeria. In this context, we show the different existing means of transport in the current network whose aim to illustrate the points of insufficiency accented in the present transport system, then we discuss the solutions that may exhibit a service of ODT to the problem studied all around the transport sector, to carry at the end to highlight the capabilities of ODT replying to the transformation of mobilities, this in the light of well-defined cases.

Keywords: mobility, on-demand transport, public transport collective, transport system

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: Peter Schnell, Phillip Haag

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In the course of the structural transformation of the construction industry, the integration of industrialization and digitization has led to the development of construction methods with an increased degree of prefabrication, such as system or modular construction. Compared to conventional construction, these innovative construction methods are characterized by modified structural and procedural properties and expand the range of construction services. Faced with the supply side, it is possible to identify construction-specific customer types with different characteristics and certain preferences as far as the choice of construction method is concerned. The basis for this finding was qualitative expert interviews. By evaluating the stereotypical customer needs, a corresponding segmentation of the demand side can be made along with the basic orientation and decision behavior. This demarcation supports the target- and needs-oriented customer approach and contributes to cooperative and successful project management.

Keywords: differentiation of customer types, modular construction methods, conventional construction methods, stereotypical customer types

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Xuguang Leng

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The crater pattern on the Moon indicates the Moon was captured by Earth in the more recent years, disproves the theory that the Moon was born as a satellite to the Earth. The Moon was tidal locked since it became the satellite of the Earth. Moon’s near side is shielded by Earth from asteroid/comet collisions, with the center of the near side most protected. Yet the crater pattern on the Moon is fairly random, with no distinguishable empty spot/strip, no distinguishable difference near side vs. far side. Were the Moon born as Earth’s satellite, there would be a clear crater free spot, or strip should the tial lock shifts over time, on the near side; and far more craters on the far side. The nonexistence of even a vague crater free spot on the near side of the Moon indicates the capture was a more recent event. Given Earth’s much larger mass and sphere size over the Moon, Earth should have collided with asteroids and comets in much higher frequency, resulting in significant mass gain over the lifespan. Earth’s larger mass and magnetic field are better at retaining water and gas from solar wind’s stripping effect, thus accelerating the mass gain. A dwarf planet Moon can be pulled closer and closer to the Earth over time as Earth’s gravity grows stronger, eventually being captured as a satellite. Given enough time, it is possible Earth’s mass would be large enough to cause the Moon to collide with Earth.

Keywords: moon, origin, crater, pattern

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Shailender Kumar

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Current health policy pronouncements in India advocate for insurance-based financing mechanism to achieve universal health coverage (UHC), while undermine the role of comprehensive healthcare provision system. UHC is achieved when all people receive the health services they need without suffering financial hardship. This study, using 68th & 71st NSS rounds data, examines their relative and combined strength in achieving the above objective. Health-insurance has been unsuccessful in reducing prevalence and catastrophic effects of out-of-pocket payment and even dismantle the effectiveness of traditional way of health financing system. Healthcare provision is the best way forward to enhance health and well-being of households in condition if India removes existing inadequacies and inequalities in service provision across districts/states and ensure free/low cost medicines/diagnostics to the citizens.

Keywords: health policy, demand-side financing, supply-side financing, incidence of health payment

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Shabnam Najafi, Metin Turkay

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Network design problem (NDP) is used to determine the set of optimal values for certain pre-specified decision variables such as capacity expansion of nodes and links by optimizing various system performance measures including safety, congestion, and accessibility. The designed transportation network should improve objective functions defined for the system by considering the route choice behaviors of network users at the same time. The NDP studies mostly investigated the random demand and route selection constraints separately due to computational challenges. In this work, we consider both random demand and route selection constraints simultaneously. This work presents a nonlinear stochastic model for land use and road network design problem to address the development of different functional zones in urban areas by considering both cost function and air pollution. This model minimizes cost function and air pollution simultaneously with random demand and stochastic route selection constraint that aims to optimize network performance via road capacity expansion. The Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) link impedance function is used to determine the travel time function in each link. We consider a city with origin and destination nodes which can be residential or employment or both. There are set of existing paths between origin-destination (O-D) pairs. Case of increasing employed population is analyzed to determine amount of roads and origin zones simultaneously. Minimizing travel and expansion cost of routes and origin zones in one side and minimizing CO emission in the other side is considered in this analysis at the same time. In this work demand between O-D pairs is random and also the network flow pattern is subject to stochastic user equilibrium, specifically logit route choice model. Considering both demand and route choice, random is more applicable to design urban network programs. Epsilon-constraint is one of the methods to solve both linear and nonlinear multi-objective problems. In this work epsilon-constraint method is used to solve the problem. The problem was solved by keeping first objective (cost function) as the objective function of the problem and second objective as a constraint that should be less than an epsilon, where epsilon is an upper bound of the emission function. The value of epsilon should change from the worst to the best value of the emission function to generate the family of solutions representing Pareto set. A numerical example with 2 origin zones and 2 destination zones and 7 links is solved by GAMS and the set of Pareto points is obtained. There are 15 efficient solutions. According to these solutions as cost function value increases, emission function value decreases and vice versa.

Keywords: epsilon-constraint, multi-objective, network design, stochastic

Procedia PDF Downloads 616

Authors: Erwin, Cheng-Cheng Chen, Charles J. Salim

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One of the method to solve the lateral torsional buckling (LTB) problem is by using side plates to increased the buckling resistance of the beam. Some modifications in designing the side plates are made in this study to simplify the construction in the field and reduce the cost. At certain region, side plates are not added: (1) At the beam end to preserve some spaces for bolt installation, but the beam is strengthened by adding cover plate at both flanges and (2) at the middle span of the beam where the moment is smaller. Three small scale full span beam specimens are tested under cyclic loading to investigate the LTB resistant and the ductility of the proposed design method. Test results show that the LTB deformation can be effectively suppressed and very high ductility level can be achieved. Following the test, a finite element analysis (FEA) model is established and is verified using the test results. An intensive parametric study is conducted using the established FEA model. The analysis reveals that the length of side plates is the most important parameter determining the performance of the beam and the required side plates length is determined by some parameters which are (1) beam depth to flange width ratio, (2) beam slenderness ratio (3) strength and thickness of the side plates, (4) compactness of beam web and flange, and (5) beam yield strength. At the end of the paper, a design formula to calculate the required side plate length is suggested.

Keywords: cover plate, earthquake resistant design, lateral torsional buckling, side plate, steel structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Usman A. Usman

Abstract:

Undeniably, unlike the Classical side, the Keynesian perspective of the aggregate demand side indeed has a significant position in the policy, growth, and welfare of Nigeria due to government involvement and ineffective demand of the population living with poor per capita income. This study seeks to investigate the effect of Government Final Consumption Expenditure, Financial Deepening on Households, and NPISHs Final consumption expenditure using data on Nigeria from 1981 to 2019. This study employed the ADF stationarity test, Johansen Cointegration test, and Vector Error Correction Model. The results of the study revealed that the coefficient of Government final consumption expenditure has a positive effect on household consumption expenditure in the long run. There is a long-run and short-run relationship between gross fixed capital formation and household consumption expenditure. The coefficients cpsgdp (financial deepening and gross fixed capital formation posit a negative impact on household final consumption expenditure. The coefficients money supply lm2gdp, which is another proxy for financial deepening, and the coefficient FDI have a positive effect on household final consumption expenditure in the long run. Therefore, this study recommends that Gross fixed capital formation stimulates household consumption expenditure; a legal framework to support investment is a panacea to increasing hoodmold income and consumption and reducing poverty in Nigeria. Therefore, this should be a key central component of policy.

Keywords: government final consumption expenditure, household consumption expenditure, vector error correction model, cointegration

Procedia PDF Downloads 21

Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

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To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Brahmia Nadjet

Abstract:

The growing needs of displacements led advanced countries in this field install new specific transport systems, able to palliate any deficiencies, especially when regular public transport does not adequately meet the requests of users. In this context, on-demand transport systems (ODT) are very efficient; they rely on techniques based on the location of trip generators which should be assured effectively with the use of operators responsible of the advance reservation, planning and organization, and studying the different ODT criteria (organizational, technical, geographical, etc.). As the advanced countries in the field of transport, some developing countries are involved in the adaptation of the new technologies to reduce the deficit in their communication system. This communication presents the study of an ODT implementation in the west of Algeria, by developing the Geomatics side of the study. This part requires the use of specific systems (such as GIS, RDBMS), so we developed the process through an application in an environment of mobility by using the computer tools dedicated to the management of the entities related to the transport field.

Keywords: ODT, geomatics, GIS, transport systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 472

Authors: Usman A. Usman

Abstract:

Undeniably, unlike the Classical side, the Keynesian perspective of the aggregate demand side indeed has a significant position in the policy, growth, and welfare of Nigeria due to government involvement and ineffective demand of the population living with poor per capita income. This study seeks to investigate the effect of Government Final Consumption Expenditure, Financial Deepening on Households, and NPISHs Final consumption expenditure using data on Nigeria from 1981 to 2019. This study employed the ADF stationarity test, Johansen Cointegration test, and Vector Error Correction Model. The results of the study revealed that the coefficient of Government final consumption expenditure has a positive effect on household consumption expenditure in the long run. There is a long-run and short-run relationship between gross fixed capital formation and household consumption expenditure. The coefficients cpsgdp financial deepening and gross fixed capital formation posit a negative impact on household final consumption expenditure. The coefficients money supply lm2gdp, which is another proxy for financial deepening, and the coefficient FDI have a positive effect on household final consumption expenditure in the long run. Therefore, this study recommends that Gross fixed capital formation stimulates household consumption expenditure; a legal framework to support investment is a panacea to increasing hoodmold income and consumption and reducing poverty in Nigeria. Therefore, this should be a key central component of policy.

Keywords: household, government expenditures, vector error correction model, johansen test

Procedia PDF Downloads 26

Authors: Mekdelawit Teferi Alamirew

Abstract:

As a practical tool, the Geographical information system (GIS) was used for data integration, collection, management, analysis, and output presentation in pavement mangement systems . There are many GIS techniques to improve the maintenance activities like Dynamic segmentation and weighted overlay analysis which considers Multi Criteria Decision Making process. The results indicated that the developed MPI model works sufficiently and yields adequate output for providing accurate decisions. Hence considering multi criteria to prioritize the pavement sections for maintenance, as a result of the fact that GIS maps can express position, extent, and severity of pavement distress features more effectively than manual approaches, lastly the paper also offers digitized distress maps that can help agencies in their decision-making processes.

Keywords: pavement, flexible, maintenance, index

Procedia PDF Downloads 27

Authors: Nadjet Brahmia

Abstract:

The growing needs of displacements led advanced countries in this field install new specific transport systems, able to palliate any deficiencies, especially when regular public transport does not adequately meet the requests of users. In this context, on-demand transportation (ODT) are very efficient; they rely on techniques based on the location of trip generators which should be assured effectively with the use of operators responsible of the advance reservation, planning and organization, and studying the different ODT criteria (organizational, technical, geographical, etc.). As the advanced countries in the field of transport, some developing countries are involved in the adaptation of the new technologies to reduce the deficit in their communication system. This communication presents the study of an ODT implementation in the west of Algeria, by developing the Geomatics side of the study. This part requires the use of specific systems (such as GIS, RDBMS…), so we developed the process through an application in an environment of mobility by using the computer tools dedicated to the management of the entities related to the transport field.

Keywords: ODT, geomatics, GIS, transport systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 526

Authors: Isha Rathore, Peeyush Jain, Elangovan Rajasekar

Abstract:

The thermal capacity of the envelope impacts the cooling and heating demand of a building and modulates the peak electricity demand. This paper presents the thermal capacity tuning of a building envelope to minimize peak electricity demand for space cooling. We consider a 40 m² residential testbed located in Hyderabad, India (Composite Climate). An EnergyPlus model is validated using real-time data. A Parametric simulation framework for thermal capacity tuning is created using the Honeybee plugin. Diffusivity, Thickness, layer position, orientation and fenestration size of the exterior envelope are parametrized considering a five-layered wall system. A total of 1824 parametric runs are performed and the optimum wall configuration leading to minimum peak cooling demand is presented.

Keywords: thermal capacity, tuning, peak demand reduction, parametric analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Yan Pang, Xiang Wang, Zhaomiao Liu

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Droplet microfluidics, in which nanoliter to picoliter droplets acted as individual compartments, are common to a diverse array of applications such as analytical chemistry, tissue engineering, microbiology and drug discovery. The droplet generation in a simplified two dimension T-shape microchannel with the main channel width of 50 μm and the side channel width of 25 μm, is simulated to investigate effects of the forced fluctuation of the side wall on the droplet generation and flow. The periodic fluctuations are applied on a length of the side wall in the main channel of the T-junction with the deformation shape of the double-clamped beam acted by the uniform force, which varies with the flow time and fluctuation periods, forms and positions. The fluctuations under most of the conditions expand the distribution range of the droplet size but have a little effect on the average size, while the shape of the fixed side wall changes the average droplet size chiefly. Droplet sizes show a periodic pattern along the relative time when the fluctuation is forced on the side wall near the T-junction. The droplet emerging frequency is not varied by the fluctuation of the side wall under the same flow rate and geometry conditions. When the fluctuation period is similar with the droplet emerging period, the droplet size shows a nice stability as the no fluctuation case.

Keywords: droplet generation, droplet size, flow flied, forced fluctuation

Procedia PDF Downloads 255

Authors: M. Al-Roumi, A. Al-Yaqout, A. Al-Baz

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Recently, sea cucumbers have shown to be significant to global trade and incomes due to their high commercial value for the pharmaceutical and cosmetics industry. This rising demand for sea cucumber products has created increasing harvest stress on the natural populations and led to the depletion of sea cucumbers stocks worldwide and accordingly there is a big concern on the marine environment's health worldwide. Few species have been reported and identified via morophlogical features only. Several sea cucumber species were collected from the North West side reefs at Qaruh Island, and the north side of Umm Al-Maradem Island in Kuwait waters, in the north-western Arabian Gulf, in order to identify the sea cucumber species available in the Kuwaiti waters. The identified species were Holothuria atra, Holothuria arenicola, Holothuria hilla and Holothuria impatiens. Species identification was made using morphological keys and review of their ossicles. This paper reports the species Stichopus hermanni from Kuwait.

Keywords: Stichopus hermanni, Kuwait waters, Arabian Gulf, ossicles

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: Qaisar Fraz, H. M. Jafar, Mojeeb Bin Ihsan

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This paper presents simulation and experimen-tal results for wide band U-shaped side slots loaded linearly polarized rectangular microstrip antenna with broad side radiation characteristics suitable for onboard applications. The structure has been evolved in rugged and compact form to make it suitable for on-board applications. In addition to U-shaped central slot, pair of parallel narrow slots has been embedded close to non-radiating edges. The size and shape of these side slots have been optimized to improve the matching at upper frequency of the band. The impedance bandwidth of 34.8% as compared to 2-5% bandwidth of conventional microstrip antenna has been achieved. The frequency ratio of the two well-matched operating sections is found to be f2 / f1=1.33. The experimental results are in good agreement with the numerical results.

Keywords: low profile antennas, u-slot antennas, broad band antennas, broad-side radiation pattern, high gain antennas

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: Xian Li, Qing-Guo Wang, Jiangshuai Huang, Jidong Liu, Ming Yu, Tan Kok Poh

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In power industry, accurate electricity demand forecasting for a certain leading time is important for system operation and control, etc. In this paper, we investigate the modeling and forecasting of Singapore’s electricity demand. Several standard models, such as HWT exponential smoothing model, the ARMA model and the ANNs model have been proposed based on historical demand data. We applied them to Singapore electricity market and proposed three refinements based on simulation to improve the modeling accuracy. Compared with existing models, our refined model can produce better forecasting accuracy. It is demonstrated in the simulation that by adding forecasting error into the forecasting equation, the modeling accuracy could be improved greatly.

Keywords: power industry, electricity demand, modeling, forecasting

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Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

Abstract:

The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: Ilma Robo, Saimir Heta, Emela Dalloshi, Nevila Alliu, Vera Ostreni

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The dental whitening process, beyond the fact that it is a mini-invasive dental treatment, has effects on the dental structure, or on the pulp of the tooth, where it is applied. The electronic search was performed using keywords to find articles published within the last 10 years about side effects, assessed as such, of minimally invasive dental bleaching treatment. Methodology: In selected articles, the other aim of the study was to evaluate the side effects of bleaching based on the percentage and type of solution used, where the latter was evaluated on the basic solution used for bleaching. Results: The side effects of bleaching are evaluated in selected articles depending on the method of bleaching application, which means it is carried out with recommended solutions, or with mixtures of alternative solutions or substances based on Internet information. Short conclusion: The dental bleaching process has side effects which have not yet been definitively evaluated, experimentally in large samples of individuals or animals (mice or cattle) to arrive at accurate numerical conclusions. The trend of publications about this topic is increasing in recent years, as long as the trend for aesthetic facial treatments, including dental ones, is increasing.

Keywords: teeth whitening, side effects, permanent teeth, formed dental apex

Procedia PDF Downloads 26

Authors: Yongfang Deng, Dunwen Zuo

Abstract:

An attempt is made here to join 2024 aluminum alloy plate by friction stir joining (FSJ) using different types of tools. Joint surface morphology was observed, and both arc line spacing and flash were measured. Study is carried out on the effect of pin, shoulder and eccentricity of the tool on the surface topography of the joint and the formation of the joint surface topography is analyzed. It is found that, eccentric squeezing action of the tool is the mainly motive power to form arc lines contour and flash structure. Little flash appears in the advancing side but with severe deformation, while the flash in the retreating side is heavy but with soft deformation. The pin of tool has a deep impact on the flash on the advancing side of the joints. Shoulder can widen the arc lines, refine arcs structure, reduce flash in the retreat side, but will increase the flash in the advancing side. Increasing the amount of eccentricity, it has litter effect on the arc line spacing but will destroy the arc lines morphology in the joint surface and promote the formation of filamentous flash structure in the joint.

Keywords: FSJ, surface morphology, tool, joint

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: Esma Birisci, Ronald McGarvey

Abstract:

One of the common problems in food service industry is demand uncertainty. This research presents a multi-criteria optimization approach to identify the efficient frontier of points lying between the minimum-waste and minimum-shortfall solutions within uncertain demand environment. It also addresses correlation across demands for items (e.g., hamburgers are often demanded with french fries). Reducing overproduction food waste (and its corresponding environmental impacts) and an aversion to shortfalls (leave some customer hungry) need to consider as two contradictory objectives in an all-you-care-to-eat environment food service operation. We identify optimal production adjustments relative to demand forecasts, demand thresholds for utilization of leftovers, and percentages of demand to be satisfied by leftovers, considering two alternative metrics for overproduction waste: mass; and greenhouse gas emissions. Demand uncertainty and demand correlations are addressed using a kernel density estimation approach. A statistical analysis of the changes in decision variable values across each of the efficient frontiers can then be performed to identify the key variables that could be modified to reduce the amount of wasted food at minimal increase in shortfalls. We illustrate our approach with an application to empirical data from Campus Dining Services operations at the University of Missouri.

Keywords: environmental studies, food waste, production planning, uncertain and correlated demand

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Authors: Huey-Kuo Chen

Abstract:

Travel demand forecasting including four travel choices, i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and traffic assignment constructs the core of transportation planning. In its current application, travel demand forecasting has associated with three important issues, i.e., interface inconsistencies among four travel choices, inefficiency of commonly used solution algorithms, and undesirable multiple path solutions. In this paper, each of the three issues is extensively elaborated. An ideal unified framework for the combined model consisting of the four travel choices and variable demand functions is also suggested. Then, a few remarks are provided in the end of the paper.

Keywords: travel choices, B algorithm, entropy maximization, dynamic traffic assignment

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