Search results for: Tyler’s objective based model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 40268

Search results for: Tyler’s objective based model

40058 Survival Analysis Based Delivery Time Estimates for Display FAB

Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek

Abstract:

In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model

Procedia PDF Downloads 504
40057 Temperature Control Improvement of Membrane Reactor

Authors: Pornsiri Kaewpradit, Chalisa Pourneaw

Abstract:

Temperature control improvement of a membrane reactor with exothermic and reversible esterification reaction is studied in this work. It is well known that a batch membrane reactor requires different control strategies from a continuous one due to the fact that it is operated dynamically. Due to the effect of the operating temperature, the suitable control scheme has to be designed based reliable predictive model to achieve a desired objective. In the study, the optimization framework has been preliminary formulated in order to determine an optimal temperature trajectory for maximizing a desired product. In model predictive control scheme, a set of predictive models have been initially developed corresponding to the possible operating points of the system. The multiple predictive control moves have been further calculated on-line using the developed models corresponding to current operating point. It is obviously seen in the simulation results that the temperature control has been improved compared to the performance obtained by the conventional predictive controller. Further robustness tests have also been investigated in this study.

Keywords: model predictive control, batch reactor, temperature control, membrane reactor

Procedia PDF Downloads 439
40056 A Comparative Analysis of E-Government Quality Models

Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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Many quality models have been used to measure e-government portals quality. However, the absence of an international consensus for e-government portals quality models results in many differences in terms of quality attributes and measures. The aim of this paper is to compare and analyze the existing e-government quality models proposed in literature (those that are based on ISO standards and those that are not) in order to propose guidelines to build a good and useful e-government portals quality model. Our findings show that, there is no e-government portal quality model based on the new international standard ISO 25010. Besides that, the quality models are not based on a best practice model to allow agencies to both; measure e-government portals quality and identify missing best practices for those portals.

Keywords: e-government, portal, best practices, quality model, ISO, standard, ISO 25010, ISO 9126

Procedia PDF Downloads 527
40055 Model for Assessment of Quality Airport Services

Authors: Cristina da Silva Torres, José Luis Duarte Ribeiro, Maria Auxiliadora Cannarozzo Tinoco

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As a result of the rapid growth of the Brazilian Air Transport, many airports are at the limit of their capacities and have a reduction in the quality of services provided. Thus, there is a need of models for assessing the quality of airport services. Because of this, the main objective of this work is to propose a model for the evaluation of quality attributes in airport services. To this end, we used the method composed by literature review and interview. Structured a working method composed by 5 steps, which resulted in a model to evaluate the quality of airport services, consisting of 8 dimensions and 45 attributes. Was used as base for model definition the process mapping of boarding and landing processes of passengers and luggage. As a contribution of this work is the integration of management process with structuring models to assess the quality of services in airport environments.

Keywords: quality airport services, model for identification of attributes quality, air transport, passenger

Procedia PDF Downloads 502
40054 Facial Expression Recognition Using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Field

Authors: Mohammadamin Abbasnejad

Abstract:

The analysis of expression and facial Action Units (AUs) detection are very important tasks in fields of computer vision and Human Computer Interaction (HCI) due to the wide range of applications in human life. Many works have been done during the past few years which has their own advantages and disadvantages. In this work, we present a new model based on Gaussian Conditional Random Field. We solve our objective problem using ADMM and we show how well the proposed model works. We train and test our work on two facial expression datasets, CK+, and RU-FACS. Experimental evaluation shows that our proposed approach outperform state of the art expression recognition.

Keywords: Gaussian Conditional Random Field, ADMM, convergence, gradient descent

Procedia PDF Downloads 325
40053 Physical Education Teacher's Interpretation toward Teaching Games for Understanding Model

Authors: Soni Nopembri

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The objective of this research is to evaluate the implementation of teaching games for Understanding model by conducting action to physical education teacher who have got long teaching experience. The research applied Participatory Action Research. The subjects of this research were 19 physical education teachers who had got training of Teaching Games for Understanding. Data collection was conducted intensively through a questionnaire, in-depth interview, Focus Group Discussion (FGD), observation, and documentation. The collected data was analysis zed qualitatively and quantitatively. The result showed that physical education teachers had got an appropriate interpretation on TGfU model. Some indicators that were the focus of this research indicated this points; they are: (1) physical education teachers had good understanding toward TGfU model, (2) PE teachers’ competence in applying TGfU model on Physical Education at school were adequate, though some improvement were needed, (3) the influence factors in the implementation of TGfU model, in sequence, were teacher, facilities, environment, and students factors, (4) PE teachers’ perspective toward TGfU model were positively good, although some teachers were less optimistic toward the development of TGfU model in the future.

Keywords: TGfU, physical education teacher, teaching games, FGD

Procedia PDF Downloads 516
40052 Utilization of an Object Oriented Tool to Perform Model-Based Safety Analysis According to Extended Failure System Models

Authors: Royia Soliman, Salma ElAnsary, Akram Amin Abdellatif, Florian Holzapfel

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Model-Based Safety Analysis (MBSA) is an approach in which the system and safety engineers share a common system model created using a model-based development process. The model can also be extended by the failure modes of the system components. There are two famous approaches for the addition of fault behaviors to system models. The first one is to enclose the failure into the system design directly. The second approach is to develop a fault model separately from the system model, thus combining both independent models for safety analysis. This paper introduces a hybrid approach of MBSA. The approach tries to use informal abstracted models to investigate failure behaviors. The approach will combine various concepts such as directed graph traversal, event lists and Constraint Satisfaction Problems (CSP). The approach is implemented using an Object Oriented programming language. The components are abstracted to its failure logic and relationships of connected components. The implemented approach is tested on various flight control systems, including electrical and multi-domain examples. The various tests are analyzed, and a comparison to different approaches is represented.

Keywords: flight control systems, model based safety analysis, safety assessment analysis, system modelling

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40051 Modeling Sediment Yield Using the SWAT Model: A Case Study of Upper Ankara River Basin, Turkey

Authors: Umit Duru

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The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested for prediction of water balance and sediment yield in the Ankara gauged basin, Turkey. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate the performance and applicability of the SWAT in this region of Turkey. Thirteen years of monthly stream flow, and suspended sediment, data were used for calibration and validation. This research assessed model performance based on differences between observed and predicted suspended sediment yield during calibration (1987-1996) and validation (1982-1984) periods. Statistical comparisons of suspended sediment produced values for NSE (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency), RE (relative error), and R² (coefficient of determination), of 0.81, -1.55, and 0.93, respectively, during the calibration period, and NSE, RE (%), and R² of 0.77, -2.61, and 0.87, respectively, during the validation period. Based on the analyses, SWAT satisfactorily simulated observed hydrology and sediment yields and can be used as a tool in decision making for water resources planning and management in the basin.

Keywords: calibration, GIS, sediment yield, SWAT, validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
40050 Speed Control of DC Motor Using Optimization Techniques Based PID Controller

Authors: Santosh Kumar Suman, Vinod Kumar Giri

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The goal of this paper is to outline a speed controller of a DC motor by choice of a PID parameters utilizing genetic algorithms (GAs), the DC motor is extensively utilized as a part of numerous applications such as steel plants, electric trains, cranes and a great deal more. DC motor could be represented by a nonlinear model when nonlinearities such as attractive dissemination are considered. To provide effective control, nonlinearities and uncertainties in the model must be taken into account in the control design. The DC motor is considered as third order system. Objective of this paper three type of tuning techniques for PID parameter. In this paper, an independently energized DC motor utilizing MATLAB displaying, has been outlined whose velocity might be examined utilizing the Proportional, Integral, Derivative (KP, KI , KD) addition of the PID controller. Since, established controllers PID are neglecting to control the drive when weight parameters be likewise changed. The principle point of this paper is to dissect the execution of optimization techniques viz. The Genetic Algorithm (GA) for improve PID controllers parameters for velocity control of DC motor and list their points of interest over the traditional tuning strategies. The outcomes got from GA calculations were contrasted and that got from traditional technique. It was found that the optimization techniques beat customary tuning practices of ordinary PID controllers.

Keywords: DC motor, PID controller, optimization techniques, genetic algorithm (GA), objective function, IAE

Procedia PDF Downloads 390
40049 A Stokes Optimal Control Model of Determining Cellular Interaction Forces during Gastrulation

Authors: Yuanhao Gao, Ping Lin, Kees Weijer

Abstract:

An optimal control system model is proposed for the cell flow in the process of chick embryo gastrulation in this paper. The target is to determine the cellular interaction forces which are hard to measure. This paper will take an approach to investigate the forces with the idea of the inverse problem. By choosing the forces as the control variable and regarding the cell flow as Stokes fluid, an objective functional will be established to match the numerical result of cell velocity with the experimental data. So that the forces could be determined by minimizing the objective functional. The Lagrange multiplier method is utilized to derive the state and adjoint equations consisting the optimal control system, which specifies the first-order necessary conditions. Finite element method is used to discretize and approximate equations. A conjugate gradient algorithm is given for solving the minimum solution of the system and determine the forces.

Keywords: optimal control model, Stokes equation, conjugate gradient method, finite element method, chick embryo gastrulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 225
40048 A Theoretical Hypothesis on Ferris Wheel Model of University Social Responsibility

Authors: Le Kang

Abstract:

According to the nature of the university, as a free and responsible academic community, USR is based on a different foundation —academic responsibility, so the Pyramid and the IC Model of CSR could not fully explain the most distinguished feature of USR. This paper sought to put forward a new model— Ferris Wheel Model, to illustrate the nature of USR and the process of achievement. The Ferris Wheel Model of USR shows the university creates a balanced, fairness and neutrality systemic structure to afford social responsibilities; that makes the organization could obtain a synergistic effect to achieve more extensive interests of stakeholders and wider social responsibilities.

Keywords: USR, achievement model, ferris wheel model, social responsibilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 687
40047 A Study on the Waiting Time for the First Employment of Arts Graduates in Sri Lanka

Authors: Imali T. Jayamanne, K. P. Asoka Ramanayake

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Transition from tertiary level education to employment is one of the challenges that many fresh university graduates face after graduation. The transition period or the waiting time to obtain the first employment varies with the socio-economic factors and the general characteristics of a graduate. Compared to other fields of study, Arts graduates in Sri Lanka, have to wait a long time to find their first employment. The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the transition from higher education to employment of these graduates using survival models. The study is based on a survey that was conducted in the year 2016 on a stratified random sample of Arts graduates from Sri Lankan universities who had graduated in 2012. Among the 469 responses, 36 (8%) waiting times were interval censored and 13 (3%) were right censored. Waiting time for the first employment varied between zero to 51 months. Initially, the log-rank and the Gehan-Wilcoxon tests were performed to identify the significant factors. Gender, ethnicity, GCE Advanced level English grade, civil status, university, class received, degree type, sector of first employment, type of first employment and the educational qualifications required for the first employment were significant at 10%. The Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to model the waiting time for first employment with these significant factors. All factors, except ethnicity and type of employment were significant at 5%. However, since the proportional hazard assumption was violated, the lognormal Accelerated failure time (AFT) model was fitted to model the waiting time for the first employment. The same factors were significant in the AFT model as in Cox proportional model.

Keywords: AFT model, first employment, proportional hazard, survey design, waiting time

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40046 Developing Cucurbitacin a Minimum Inhibition Concentration of Meloidogyne Incognita Using a Computer-Based Model

Authors: Zakheleni P. Dube, Phatu W. Mashela

Abstract:

Minimum inhibition concentration (MIC) is the lowest concentration of a chemical that brings about significant inhibition of target organism. The conventional method for establishing the MIC for phytonematicides is tedious. The objective of this study was to use the Curve-fitting Allelochemical Response Data (CARD) to determine the MIC for pure cucurbitacin A on Meloidogyne incognita second-stage juveniles (J2) hatch, immobility and mortality. Meloidogyne incognita eggs and freshly hatched J2 were separately exposed to a series of pure cucurbitacin A concentrations of 0.00, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 1.00, 1.25, 1.50, 1.75, 2.00, 2.25 and 2.50 μg.mL⁻¹for 12, 24, 48 and 72 h in an incubator set at 25 ± 2°C. Meloidogyne incognita J2 hatch, immobility and mortality counts were determined using a stereomicroscope and the significant means were subjected to the CARD model. The model exhibited density-dependent growth (DDG) patterns of J2 hatch, immobility and mortality to increasing concentrations of cucurbitacin A. The average MIC for cucurbitacin A on M. incognita J2 hatch, immobility and mortality were 2.2, 0.58 and 0.63 µg.mL⁻¹, respectively. Meloidogyne incognita J2 hatch had the highest average MIC value followed by mortality and immobility had the least. In conclusion, the CARD model was able to generate MIC for cucurbitacin A, hence it could serve as a valuable tool in the chemical-nematode bioassay studies.

Keywords: inhibition concentration, phytonematicide, sensitivity index, threshold stimulation, triterpenoids.

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40045 Elastic and Plastic Collision Comparison Using Finite Element Method

Authors: Gustavo Rodrigues, Hans Weber, Larissa Driemeier

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The prevision of post-impact conditions and the behavior of the bodies during the impact have been object of several collision models. The formulation from Hertz’s theory is generally used dated from the 19th century. These models consider the repulsive force as proportional to the deformation of the bodies under contact and may consider it proportional to the rate of deformation. The objective of the present work is to analyze the behavior of the bodies during impact using the Finite Element Method (FEM) with elastic and plastic material models. The main parameters to evaluate are, the contact force, the time of contact and the deformation of the bodies. An advantage of using the FEM approach is the possibility to apply a plastic deformation to the model according to the material definition: there will be used Johnson–Cook plasticity model whose parameters are obtained through empirical tests of real materials. This model allows analyzing the permanent deformation caused by impact, phenomenon observed in real world depending on the forces applied to the body. These results are compared between them and with the model-based Hertz theory.

Keywords: collision, impact models, finite element method, Hertz Theory

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40044 Model-Based Software Regression Test Suite Reduction

Authors: Shiwei Deng, Yang Bao

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In this paper, we present a model-based regression test suite reducing approach that uses EFSM model dependence analysis and probability-driven greedy algorithm to reduce software regression test suites. The approach automatically identifies the difference between the original model and the modified model as a set of elementary model modifications. The EFSM dependence analysis is performed for each elementary modification to reduce the regression test suite, and then the probability-driven greedy algorithm is adopted to select the minimum set of test cases from the reduced regression test suite that cover all interaction patterns. Our initial experience shows that the approach may significantly reduce the size of regression test suites.

Keywords: dependence analysis, EFSM model, greedy algorithm, regression test

Procedia PDF Downloads 398
40043 Optimization of Hybrid off Grid Energy Station

Authors: Yehya Abdellatif, Iyad M. Muslih, Azzah Alkhalailah, Abdallah Muslih

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Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable (HOMER) software was utilized to find the optimum design of a hybrid off-Grid system, by choosing the optimal solution depending on the cost analysis of energy based on different capacity shortage percentages. A complete study for the site conditions and load profile was done to optimize the design and implementation of a hybrid off-grid power station. In addition, the solution takes into consecration the ambient temperature effect on the efficiency of the power generation and the economical aspects of selection depending on real market price. From the analysis of the HOMER model results, the optimum hybrid power station was suggested, based on wind speed, and solar conditions. The optimization function objective is to minimize the Net Price Cost (NPC) and the Cost of Energy (COE) with zero and 10 percentage of capacity shortage.

Keywords: energy modeling, HOMER, off-grid system, optimization

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40042 Analysis of Brain Signals Using Neural Networks Optimized by Co-Evolution Algorithms

Authors: Zahra Abdolkarimi, Naser Zourikalatehsamad,

Abstract:

Up to 40 years ago, after recognition of epilepsy, it was generally believed that these attacks occurred randomly and suddenly. However, thanks to the advance of mathematics and engineering, such attacks can be predicted within a few minutes or hours. In this way, various algorithms for long-term prediction of the time and frequency of the first attack are presented. In this paper, by considering the nonlinear nature of brain signals and dynamic recorded brain signals, ANFIS model is presented to predict the brain signals, since according to physiologic structure of the onset of attacks, more complex neural structures can better model the signal during attacks. Contribution of this work is the co-evolution algorithm for optimization of ANFIS network parameters. Our objective is to predict brain signals based on time series obtained from brain signals of the people suffering from epilepsy using ANFIS. Results reveal that compared to other methods, this method has less sensitivity to uncertainties such as presence of noise and interruption in recorded signals of the brain as well as more accuracy. Long-term prediction capacity of the model illustrates the usage of planted systems for warning medication and preventing brain signals.

Keywords: co-evolution algorithms, brain signals, time series, neural networks, ANFIS model, physiologic structure, time prediction, epilepsy suffering, illustrates model

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
40041 Compare the Effectiveness of Web Based and Blended Learning on Paediatric Basic Life Support

Authors: Maria Janet, Anita David, P. Vijayasamundeeswarimaria

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Introduction: The main purpose of this study is to compare the effectiveness of web-based and blended learning on Paediatric Basic Life Support on competency among undergraduate nursing students in selected nursing colleges in Chennai. Materials and methods: A descriptive pre-test and post-test study design were used for this study. Samples of 100 Fourth year B.Sc., nursing students at Sri Ramachandra Faculty of Nursing SRIHER, Chennai, 100 Fourth year B.Sc., nursing students at Apollo College of Nursing, Chennai, were selected by purposive sampling technique. The instrument used for data collection was Knowledge Questionnaire on Paediatric Basic Life Support (PBLS). It consists of 29 questions on the general expansion of Basic Life Support and Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation, Prerequisites of Basic Life Support, and Knowledge on Paediatric Basic Life Support in which each question has four multiple choices answers, each right answer carrying one mark and no negative scoring. This questionnaire was formed with reference to AHA 2020 (American Heart Association) revised guidelines. Results: After the post-test, in the web-based learning group, 58.8% of the students had an inadequate level of objective performance score, while 41.1% of them had an adequate level of objective performance score. In the blended learning group, 26.5% of the students had an inadequate level of an objective performance score, and 73.4% of the students had an adequate level of an objective performance score. There was an association between the post-test level of knowledge and the demographic variables of undergraduate nursing students undergoing blended learning. The age was significant at a p-value of 0.01, and the performance of BLS before was significant at a p-value of 0.05. The results show that there was a significant positive correlation between knowledge and objective performance score of undergraduate nursing students undergoing web-based learning on paediatric basic life support.

Keywords: basic life support, paediatric basic life support, web-based learning, blended learning

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40040 Spherical Harmonic Based Monostatic Anisotropic Point Scatterer Model for RADAR Applications

Authors: Eric Huang, Coleman DeLude, Justin Romberg, Saibal Mukhopadhyay, Madhavan Swaminathan

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High performance computing (HPC) based emulators can be used to model the scattering from multiple stationary and moving targets for RADAR applications. These emulators rely on the RADAR Cross Section (RCS) of the targets being available in complex scenarios. Representing the RCS using tables generated from electromagnetic (EM) simulations is often times cumbersome leading to large storage requirement. This paper proposed a spherical harmonic based anisotropic scatterer model to represent the RCS of complex targets. The problem of finding the locations and reflection profiles of all scatterers can be formulated as a linear least square problem with a special sparsity constraint. This paper solves this problem using a modified Orthogonal Matching Pursuit algorithm. The results show that the spherical harmonic based scatterer model can effectively represent the RCS data of complex targets.

Keywords: RADAR, RCS, high performance computing, point scatterer model

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40039 Using Speech Emotion Recognition as a Longitudinal Biomarker for Alzheimer’s Diseases

Authors: Yishu Gong, Liangliang Yang, Jianyu Zhang, Zhengyu Chen, Sihong He, Xusheng Zhang, Wei Zhang

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Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that affects millions of people worldwide and is characterized by cognitive decline and behavioral changes. People living with Alzheimer’s disease often find it hard to complete routine tasks. However, there are limited objective assessments that aim to quantify the difficulty of certain tasks for AD patients compared to non-AD people. In this study, we propose to use speech emotion recognition (SER), especially the frustration level, as a potential biomarker for quantifying the difficulty patients experience when describing a picture. We build an SER model using data from the IEMOCAP dataset and apply the model to the DementiaBank data to detect the AD/non-AD group difference and perform longitudinal analysis to track the AD disease progression. Our results show that the frustration level detected from the SER model can possibly be used as a cost-effective tool for objective tracking of AD progression in addition to the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, speech emotion recognition, longitudinal biomarker, machine learning

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40038 Mathematical Model of Cancer Growth under the Influence of Radiation Therapy

Authors: Beata Jackowska-Zduniak

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We formulate and analyze a mathematical model describing dynamics of cancer growth under the influence of radiation therapy. The effect of this type of therapy is considered as an additional equation of discussed model. Numerical simulations show that delay, which is added to ordinary differential equations and represent time needed for transformation from one type of cells to the other one, affects the behavior of the system. The validation and verification of proposed model is based on medical data. Analytical results are illustrated by numerical examples of the model dynamics. The model is able to reconstruct dynamics of treatment of cancer and may be used to determine the most effective treatment regimen based on the study of the behavior of individual treatment protocols.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, numerical simulation, ordinary differential equations, radiation therapy

Procedia PDF Downloads 378
40037 Artificial Neural Network Based Approach for Estimation of Individual Vehicle Speed under Mixed Traffic Condition

Authors: Subhadip Biswas, Shivendra Maurya, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

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Developing speed model is a challenging task particularly under mixed traffic condition where the traffic composition plays a significant role in determining vehicular speed. The present research has been conducted to model individual vehicular speed in the context of mixed traffic on an urban arterial. Traffic speed and volume data have been collected from three midblock arterial road sections in New Delhi. Using the field data, a volume based speed prediction model has been developed adopting the methodology of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The model developed in this work is capable of estimating speed for individual vehicle category. Validation results show a great deal of agreement between the observed speeds and the predicted values by the model developed. Also, it has been observed that the ANN based model performs better compared to other existing models in terms of accuracy. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has been performed utilizing the model in order to examine the effects of traffic volume and its composition on individual speeds.

Keywords: speed model, artificial neural network, arterial, mixed traffic

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40036 Comparison of Accumulated Stress Based Pore Pressure Model and Plasticity Model in 1D Site Response Analysis

Authors: Saeedullah J. Mandokhail, Shamsher Sadiq, Meer H. Khan

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This paper presents the comparison of excess pore water pressure ratio (ru) predicted by using accumulated stress based pore pressure model and plasticity model. One dimensional effective stress site response analyses were performed on a 30 m deep sand column (consists of a liquefiable layer in between non-liquefiable layers) using accumulated stress based pore pressure model in Deepsoil and PDMY2 (PressureDependentMultiYield02) model in Opensees. Three Input motions with different peak ground acceleration (PGA) levels of 0.357 g, 0.124 g, and 0.11 g were used in this study. The developed excess pore pressure ratio predicted by the above two models were compared and analyzed along the depth. The time history of the ru at mid of the liquefiable layer and non-liquefiable layer were also compared. The comparisons show that the two models predict mostly similar ru values. The predicted ru is also consistent with the PGA level of the input motions.

Keywords: effective stress, excess pore pressure ratio, pore pressure model, site response analysis

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40035 The Ability of Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Based on Nelson-Siegel and Svensson Model

Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

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Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector auto-regressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel Model, neural networks, Svensson Model, vector autoregressive model, yield curve

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40034 Production Optimization under Geological Uncertainty Using Distance-Based Clustering

Authors: Byeongcheol Kang, Junyi Kim, Hyungsik Jung, Hyungjun Yang, Jaewoo An, Jonggeun Choe

Abstract:

It is important to figure out reservoir properties for better production management. Due to the limited information, there are geological uncertainties on very heterogeneous or channel reservoir. One of the solutions is to generate multiple equi-probable realizations using geostatistical methods. However, some models have wrong properties, which need to be excluded for simulation efficiency and reliability. We propose a novel method of model selection scheme, based on distance-based clustering for reliable application of production optimization algorithm. Distance is defined as a degree of dissimilarity between the data. We calculate Hausdorff distance to classify the models based on their similarity. Hausdorff distance is useful for shape matching of the reservoir models. We use multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) to describe the models on two dimensional space and group them by K-means clustering. Rather than simulating all models, we choose one representative model from each cluster and find out the best model, which has the similar production rates with the true values. From the process, we can select good reservoir models near the best model with high confidence. We make 100 channel reservoir models using single normal equation simulation (SNESIM). Since oil and gas prefer to flow through the sand facies, it is critical to characterize pattern and connectivity of the channels in the reservoir. After calculating Hausdorff distances and projecting the models by MDS, we can see that the models assemble depending on their channel patterns. These channel distributions affect operation controls of each production well so that the model selection scheme improves management optimization process. We use one of useful global search algorithms, particle swarm optimization (PSO), for our production optimization. PSO is good to find global optimum of objective function, but it takes too much time due to its usage of many particles and iterations. In addition, if we use multiple reservoir models, the simulation time for PSO will be soared. By using the proposed method, we can select good and reliable models that already matches production data. Considering geological uncertainty of the reservoir, we can get well-optimized production controls for maximum net present value. The proposed method shows one of novel solutions to select good cases among the various probabilities. The model selection schemes can be applied to not only production optimization but also history matching or other ensemble-based methods for efficient simulations.

Keywords: distance-based clustering, geological uncertainty, particle swarm optimization (PSO), production optimization

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40033 Design of an Electric Vehicle Model with a Dynamo Drive Setup Using Model-Based Development (MBD) (EV Using MBD)

Authors: Gondu Vykunta Rao, Madhuri Bayya, Aruna Bharathi M., Paramesw Chidamparam, B. Murali

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The increase in software content in today’s electric vehicles is increasing attention to having vast, unique topographies from low emission to high efficiency, whereas the chemical batteries have huge short comes, such as limited cycle life, power density, and cost. As for understanding and visualization, the companies are turning toward the virtual vehicle to test their design in software which is known as a simulation in the loop (SIL). In this project, in addition to the electric vehicle (EV) technology, we are adding a dynamo with the vehicle for regenerative braking. Traditionally the principle of dynamos is used in lighting the purpose of the bicycle. Here by using the same mechanism, we are running the vehicle as well as charging the vehicle from system-level simulation to the model in the loop and then to the Hardware in Loop (HIL) by using model-based development.

Keywords: electric vehicle, simulation in the loop (SIL), model in loop (MIL), hardware in loop (HIL), dynamos, model-based development (MBD), permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM), current control (CC), field-oriented control (FOC), regenerative braking

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40032 A Stochastic Analytic Hierarchy Process Based Weighting Model for Sustainability Measurement in an Organization

Authors: Faramarz Khosravi, Gokhan Izbirak

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A weighted statistical stochastic based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model for modeling the potential barriers and enablers of sustainability for measuring and assessing the sustainability level is proposed. For context-dependent potential barriers and enablers, the proposed model takes the basis of the properties of the variables describing the sustainability functions and was developed into a realistic analytical model for the sustainable behavior of an organization. This thus serves as a means for measuring the sustainability of the organization. The main focus of this paper was the application of the AHP tool in a statistically-based model for measuring sustainability. Hence a strong weighted stochastic AHP based procedure was achieved. A case study scenario of a widely reported major Canadian electric utility was adopted to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model and comparatively examined its results with those of an equal-weighted model method. Variations in the sustainability of a company, as fluctuations, were figured out during the time. In the results obtained, sustainability index for successive years changed form 73.12%, 79.02%, 74.31%, 76.65%, 80.49%, 79.81%, 79.83% to more exact values 73.32%, 77.72%, 76.76%, 79.41%, 81.93%, 79.72%, and 80,45% according to priorities of factors that have found by expert views, respectively. By obtaining relatively necessary informative measurement indicators, the model can practically and effectively evaluate the sustainability extent of any organization and also to determine fluctuations in the organization over time.

Keywords: AHP, sustainability fluctuation, environmental indicators, performance measurement

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40031 A New Nonlinear State-Space Model and Its Application

Authors: Abdullah Eqal Al Mazrooei

Abstract:

In this work, a new nonlinear model will be introduced. The model is in the state-space form. The nonlinearity of this model is in the state equation where the state vector is multiplied by its self. This technique makes our model generalizes many famous models as Lotka-Volterra model and Lorenz model which have many applications in the real life. We will apply our new model to estimate the wind speed by using a new nonlinear estimator which suitable to work with our model.

Keywords: nonlinear systems, state-space model, Kronecker product, nonlinear estimator

Procedia PDF Downloads 657
40030 Classifying Students for E-Learning in Information Technology Course Using ANN

Authors: Sirilak Areerachakul, Nat Ployong, Supayothin Na Songkla

Abstract:

This research’s objective is to select the model with most accurate value by using Neural Network Technique as a way to filter potential students who enroll in IT course by electronic learning at Suan Suanadha Rajabhat University. It is designed to help students selecting the appropriate courses by themselves. The result showed that the most accurate model was 100 Folds Cross-validation which had 73.58% points of accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural network, classification, students, e-learning

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40029 Application of Nonlinear Model to Optimize the Coagulant Dose in Drinking Water Treatment

Authors: M. Derraz, M.Farhaoui

Abstract:

In the water treatment processes, the determination of the optimal dose of the coagulant is an issue of particular concern. Coagulant dosing is correlated to raw water quality which depends on some parameters (turbidity, ph, temperature, conductivity…). The objective of this study is to provide water treatment operators with a tool that enables to predict and replace, sometimes, the manual method (jar testing) used in this plant to predict the optimum coagulant dose. The model is constructed using actual process data for a water treatment plant located in the middle of Morocco (Meknes).

Keywords: coagulation process, aluminum sulfate, model, coagulant dose

Procedia PDF Downloads 245