Search results for: pest forecasting

Authors: Nadeem Munawar, David Galbraith, Tariq Mahmood

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Rodenticides are often included as part of an integrated pest management approach for managing rodent species since they are relatively quick and inexpensive to apply. The current field study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of formulated baits of zinc phosphide (2%) and the second generation anticoagulant brodifacoum (0.005%) against field rats inhabiting a wheat-groundnut cropping system. Burrow baiting was initiated at the early flowering stages of the respective crops, and continued through three growth stages (tillering / peg formation, flowering, and maturity). Three treatments were done at equal time intervals, with the final baiting being about 2 weeks before harvest. Treatment efficacy of the trials was assessed through counts of active rodent burrows before and after treatments at the three growth stages of these crops. The results indicated variable degrees of reduction in burrow activities following the three bait applications. The reductions in rodent activity in wheat were: 88.8% (at tillering), 92%, (at flowering/grain formation), and 95.5% (at maturity). In groundnut, the rodent activities were reduced by 91.8%, 93.5% and 95.8% at sowing, peg formation, and maturity stages, respectively. The estimated mortality at all three growth stages of both wheat and groundnut ranged between 60-85%. We recommend that a field efficacy study should be conducted with zinc phosphide and brodifacoum bait formulations to determine their field performance in the reduction of agricultural damage by rodent pest species. It is a promising alternative approach for use of the most potent second-generation anticoagulant (brodifacoum) in resistance management, particularly with respect to reducing environmental risks and secondary poisoning.

Keywords: brodifacoum, burrow baiting, second-generation anticoagulant, synergistic effect

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Authors: Manit Pollar

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Identifying the dengue epidemic periods early would be helpful to take necessary actions to prevent the dengue outbreaks. Providing an accurate prediction on dengue epidemic seasons will allow sufficient time to take the necessary decisions and actions to safeguard the situation for local authorities. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model on number of dengue incidences in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Southern Thailand using time series analysis. We develop Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the monthly data collected between 2003-2011 and validated the models using data collected between January-September 2012. The result of this study revealed that the SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,2,1)12 model closely described the trends and seasons of dengue incidence and confirmed the existence of dengue fever cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat for the years between 2003-2011. The study showed that the one-step approach for predicting dengue incidences provided significantly more accurate predictions than the twelve-step approach. The model, even if based purely on statistical data analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for disease prevention.

Keywords: SARIMA, time series model, dengue cases, Thailand

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Authors: Farhan Nayyar, A. Batool

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The red palm weevil (RPW), being the most invasive insect pest of palm family, is considered as the most dangerous pest around the globe. As three out of four life stages of weevils are concealed inside the host plants, leaving only the adult stage for controlling it. The use of sex pheromone (Ferrugineol) for the management of red palm weevil is considered as the most rewarding technique of IPM. The current studies were conducted to find the relative potential of four different treatments including Sex pheromone, sex pheromone + date fruit + sugarcane pieces, sex pheromone + ethyl acetate and sex pheromone + jaggary water applied on the attraction behavior of weevils. The treatments were applied randomly at two different locations of Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan including Germ Plasm Unit (GPU) and fruit nursery farm having date palm plants of different ages of four varieties of date palm. The treatments were applied for three consecutive months, including February, March, and April 2022. The pheromone traps were installed at the height of two feet under shade on the western side of date palm plants. The results revealed that among the treatments, T4 consisting of Jaggary water and sex pheromone was found as the most effective treatment and attracted the maximum number of 127 weevils followed by T3 consisting of ethyl acetate and sex pheromone, attracting 53 weevils. In contrast to this, T2 consisting of sex pheromone and date fruit was found as the least effective treatment in attracting red palm weevil and attracted only 15 adult weevils. Among the two selected locations, the population of red palm weevil was found comparatively higher at GPU compared to the nursery farm, Dera Ismail Khan. In conclusion, T4 may be used for the effective and safer management of red palm weevil.

Keywords: red palm weevil, integrated management, sex pheromones, Jaggary water

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Authors: Mulue Girmay Gebreslasie

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Entomopathogenic fungi are naturally safe and eco-friendly biological agents. Their potential of host specificity and ease handling made them appealing options to substitute synthetic pesticides in pest control programs. However, they are highly delicate and unstable under field conditions. Therefore, the current experiment was held to search out persistent fungal strains by defining the relationship between invitro heat tolerance and field persistence. Current results on leaf and soil persistence assay revealed that strains of Metarhizium species, M. pingshaense (F2685), M. pingshaense (MS2) and M. brunneum (F709) exhibit maximum cumulative CFUs count, relative survival rate and least percent of CFUs reductions showed significant difference at 7 days and 28 days post inoculations (dpi) in hot seasons from sampled soils and leaves and in cold season from soil samples. Whereas relative survival of B. brongniartii (TNO6) found significantly higher in cold weather leaf treatment application as compared to hot season and found as persistent as other fungal strains, while higher deterioration of fungal conidia seen with M. pingshaense (MS2). In the current study, strains of Beauveria brongniartii (TNO6) and Cordyceps javanica (Czy-LP) were relatively vulnerable in field condition with utmost colony forming units (CFUs) reduction and least survival rates. Further, the relationship of the two parameters (heat tolerance and field persistence) was seen with strong linear positive correlations elucidated that heat test could be used in selection of field persistent fungal strains for hot season applications.

Keywords: integrated pest management, biopesticides, Insect pathology and microbial control, entomology

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Authors: Ali Heidari

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This paper presents the principles for improving flood mitigation operation in multipurpose dams and maximizing reservoir performance during flood occurrence with a focus on the real-time operation of gated spillways. The criteria of operation include the safety of dams during flood management, minimizing the downstream flood risk by decreasing the flood hazard and fulfilling water supply and other purposes of the dam operation in mid and long terms horizons. The parameters deemed to be important include flood inflow, outlet capacity restrictions, downstream flood inundation damages, economic revenue of dam operation, and environmental and sedimentation restrictions. A simulation model was used to determine the real-time release of the Dez dam located in the Dez rivers in southwest Iran, considering the gate regulation curves for the gated spillway. The results of the simulation model show that there is a possibility to improve the current procedures used in the real-time operation of the dams, particularly using gate regulation curves and early flood forecasting system results. The Dez dam operation data shows that in one of the best flood control records, % 17 of the total active volume and flood control pool of the reservoir have not been used in decreasing the downstream flood hazard despite the availability of a flood forecasting system.

Keywords: dam operation, flood control criteria, Dez dam, Iran

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Authors: Sevda Ddras, Fariba Mehrkhou, Remzi Atlihan, Maryam Fourouzan

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The greenhouse whitefly, Trialeurodes vaporariorum Westwood (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae), is one of the most important pest on vegetables and ornamental host plants. In this research, the sub-lethal concentration (LC30) of thiamethoxam-lambda cyhalothrin (TLC) on the biological properties, life table parameters and population projection of T. vaporarium and its parasitoid, Encarsia formosa Gahan, were studied at controlled condition (25 ±5 ℃, R.H. 60 ±10 % and a photoperiod of 16:8 h (L:D). Bioassays were conducted by dipping tomato leaves containing third instar nymphs of the whitefly T. vaporariorum, in the obtained LC30 concentration of eforia. The life table data were analyzed using the computer program TWOSEX–MSChart based on the age-stage, two-sex life table theory. The results showed that, usage of sublethal concentration of TLC effected the biological properties and population growth parameters of greenhouse whitefly by shortening the developmentl time, adult longevity, decreasing the fecundity and population growth paramters. Also, the LC30 concentration of TLC had negative effects on life history and life table parameters of E.formosa. The obtained results illustrated that the sublethal concentration of TLC resulted in prolonging of developmental time, decreasing of adult longevity, survival rate and population growth parameters of E.formosa. Additionally, the population projection results were accordance with the population growth rate of either greenhouse whitefly or E.formosa. We conclude that, TLC should not be used in integrated pest management programs where E. formosa exists.

Keywords: greenhouse whitefly, Encarsia formosa, thiamethoxam-lambda cyhalothrin, population projection, life table parameters

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Authors: Lim Sanny, Felix Christian

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The use of heavy equipment in Indonesia is always increasing. Cost reduction in procurement of spare parts is the aim of the company. The spare parts in this research are focused in the kind of filters. On the early step, the choosing of priority filter will be studied further by using the ABC analysis. To find out future demand of the filter, this research is using demand forecast by utilizing the QM software for windows. And to find out the best method of inventory control for each kind of filter is by comparing the total cost of Economic Order Quantity and Quick response inventory method. For the three kind of filters which are Cartridge, Engine oil – pn : 600-211-123, Element, Transmission – pn : 424-16-11140, and Element, Hydraulic – pn : 07063-01054, the best forecasting method is Linear regression. The best method for inventory control of Cartridge, Engine oil – pn : 600-211-123 and Element, Transmission – pn : 424-16-11140, is Quick Response Inventory, while the best method for Element, Hydraulic – pn : 07063-01054 is Economic Order Quantity.

Keywords: strategy, inventory, ABC analysis, forecasting, economic order quantity, quick response inventory

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Authors: D. N. Kambrekar, S. B. Jagginavar, J. Aruna

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Grape stem borer, Celosterna scrabrator is an important production constraint in grapes in India. Hitherto this pest was a severe menace only on the aged and unmanaged fields but during the recent past it has also started damaging the newly established fields. In India, since Karnataka, Andra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra are the major grape production states, the incidence of stem borer is also restricted and severe in these states. The grubs of the beetle bore in to the main stem and even the branches, which affect the translocation of nutrients to the areal parts of the plant. Since, the grubs bore inside the stem, the chewed material along with its excreta is discharged outside the holes and the frass is found on the ground just below the bored holes. The portion of vines above the damaged part has a sticky appearance. The leaves become pale yellow which looks like a deficiency of micronutrients. The leaves ultimately dry and drop down. The status of the incidence of the grape stem borer in different grape growing districts of Northern Karnataka was carried out during three years. In each taluka five locations were surveyed for the incidence of grape stem borer. Further, the experiment on management of stem borer was carried out in the grape gardens of Vijayapur districts under farmers field during three years. Stem borer infested plants that show live holes were selected per treatments and it was replicated three times. Live and dead holes observed during pre-treatment were closely monitored and only plants with live holes were selected and tagged. Different doses of chlorantraniliprole 0.4% GR were incorporated into the soil around the vine basins near root zone surrounded to trunk region by removing soils up to 5-10 cm with a peripheral distance of 1 to 1.5 feet from the main trunk where feeder roots are present. Irrigation was followed after application of insecticide for proper incorporation of the test chemical. The results indicated that there was sever to moderate incidence of the stem borer in all the grape growing districts of northern Karnataka. Maximum incidence was recorded in Belagavi (11 holes per vine) and minimum was in Gadag district (8.5 holes per vine). The investigations carried out to study the efficacy of chlorantraniliprole on grape stem borer for successive three years under farmers field indicated that chlorantraniliprole @ 15g/vine applied just near the active root zone of the plant followed by irrigation has successfully managed the pest. The insecticide has translocated to all the parts of the plants and thereby stopped the activity of the pest which has resulted in to better growth of the plant and higher berry yield compared to other treatments under investigation. Thus, chlorantraniliprole 0.4 GR @ 15g/vine can be effective means in managing the stem borer.

Keywords: chlorantraniliprole, grape stem borer, Celosterna scrabrator, management

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Authors: Eyad Almaita

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In this paper, a novel adaptive Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFNN) algorithm is used to forecast the hour by hour electrical load demand in Jordan. A small and effective RBFNN model is used to forecast the hourly total load demand based on a small number of features. These features are; the load in the previous day, the load in the same day in the previous week, the temperature in the same hour, the hour number, the day number, and the day type. The proposed adaptive RBFNN model can enhance the reliability of the conventional RBFNN after embedding the network in the system. This is achieved by introducing an adaptive algorithm that allows the change of the weights of the RBFNN after the training process is completed, which will eliminates the need to retrain the RBFNN model again. The data used in this paper is real data measured by National Electrical Power co. (Jordan). The data for the period Jan./2012-April/2013 is used train the RBFNN models and the data for the period May/2013- Sep. /2013 is used to validate the models effectiveness.

Keywords: load forecasting, adaptive neural network, radial basis function, short-term, electricity consumption

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Authors: Shirin Ghatrehsamani

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Higher efficiency and lower environmental impact are the consequence of using advanced technology in farming. They also help to decrease yield variability by diminishing weather variability impact, optimizing nutrient and pest management as well as reducing competition from weeds. A better understanding of the pros and cons of applying technology and finding the main reason for preventing the utilization of the technology has a significant impact on developing technology adoption among farmers and producers in the digital agriculture era. The results from two surveys carried out in 2019 and 2021 were used to investigate whether the crop types had an impact on the willingness to utilize technology on the farms. The main focus of the questionnaire was on utilizing precision agriculture (PA) technologies among farmers in some parts of the united states. Collected data was analyzed to determine the practical application of various technologies. The survey results showed more similarities in the main reason not to use PA between the two crop types, but the present application of using technology in specialty crops is generally five times larger than in row crops. GPS receiver applications were reported similar for both types of crops. Lack of knowledge and high cost of data handling were cited as the main problems. The most significant difference was among using variable rate technology, which was 43% for specialty crops while was reported 0% for row crops. Pest scouting and mapping were commonly used for specialty crops, while they were rarely applied for row crops. Survey respondents found yield mapping, soil sampling map, and irrigation scheduling were more valuable for specialty crops than row crops in management decisions. About 50% of the respondents would like to share the PA data in both types of crops. Almost 50 % of respondents got their PA information from retailers in both categories, and as the second source, using extension agents were more common in specialty crops than row crops.

Keywords: precision agriculture, smart farming, digital agriculture, technology adoption

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Authors: Nato Kutaladze, George Mikuchadze, Giorgi Sokhadze

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Precipitation forecasts are one of the most demanding applications in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Georgia, as the whole Caucasian region, is characterized by very complex topography. The country territory is prone to flash floods and mudflows, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at any leading time are very important for Georgia. In this study, advanced research weather forecasting model’s skill in QPF is investigated over Georgia’s territory. We have analyzed several convection parameterization and microphysical scheme combinations for different rainy episodes and heavy rainy phenomena. We estimate errors and biases in accumulated 6 h precipitation using different spatial resolution during model performance verification for 12-hour and 24-hour lead time against corresponding rain gouge observations and satellite data. Various statistical parameters have been calculated for the 8-month comparison period, and some skills of model simulation have been evaluated. Our focus is on the formation and organization of convective precipitation systems in a low-mountain region. Several problems in connection with QPF have been identified for mountain regions, which include the overestimation and underestimation of precipitation on the windward and lee side of the mountains, respectively, and a phase error in the diurnal cycle of precipitation leading to the onset of convective precipitation in model forecasts several hours too early.

Keywords: extremal dependence index, false alarm, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting

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Authors: V. Karuppaiah, J. C. Padaria, C. Srivastava

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The tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura Fab (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is a polyphagous pest various field and horticulture crops in India. Pest had virtually developed resistance to all commonly used insecticides. Enhanced detoxification is the prime mechanism that is dictated by detoxification different enzymes and carboxylesterase is one of the major enzyme responsible development of resistance. In India, insecticide resistance studies on S. litura are mainly deployed on detoxification enzymes activity and investigation at gene level alteration i.e. at nucleotide level is very merger. In the present study, we collected the S. litura larvae from three different cauliflower growing belt viz., IARI, New Delhi (Delhi), Palari, Sonepat (Haryana) and Varanasi (Uttar Pradesh) to study the role of carboxylesterase activity and its gene level variation The CarE activity was measured using UV-VIS spectrophotometer with 3rd instar larvae of S. litura. The elevated activity of CarE was observed in Sonepat strain (28.09 ± 0.09 µmol/min/mg of protein) followed by Delhi (26.72 ± 0.04 µmol/min/mg of protein) and Varanasi strain (10.00 ± 0.44 µmol/min/mg of protein) of S. litura. The genomic DNA was isolated from 3rd instar larvae and CarE gene was amplified using a primer sequence, F:5’tccagagttccttgtcaggcac3’; R:5’ctgcatcaagcatgtctc3. CarE gene, about 500bp was partially amplified, sequenced and submitted to NCBI (Accession No. KF835886, KF835887 and KF835888). The sequence data revealed polymorphism at nucleotide level in all the three strains and gene found to have 88 to 97% similarity with previous available nucleotide sequences of S. litura, S. littoralis and S. exiqua. The polymorphism at the nucleotide level could be a reason for differential activity of carboxylesterase enzymes among the strains. However, investigation at gene expression level would be useful to analyze the overproduction of carboxylesterase enzyme.

Keywords: carboxylesterase, CarE gene, nucleotide polymorphism, insecticide resistance, spodoptera litura

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Authors: Kien-Trinh Thi Bui, Cuong Manh Nguyen

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In order to simulate and reproduce the operational characteristics of a dam visually, it is necessary to capture the displacement at different measurement points and analyze the observed movement data promptly to forecast the dam safety. The accuracy of forecasts is further improved by applying machine learning methods to data analysis progress. In this study, the horizontal displacement monitoring data of the Ialy hydroelectric dam was applied to machine learning algorithms: Gaussian processes, multi-layer perceptron neural networks, and the M5-rules algorithm for modelling and forecasting of horizontal displacement of the Ialy hydropower dam (Vietnam), respectively, for analysing. The database which used in this research was built by collecting time series of data from 2006 to 2021 and divided into two parts: training dataset and validating dataset. The final results show all three algorithms have high performance for both training and model validation, but the MLPs is the best model. The usability of them are further investigated by comparison with a benchmark models created by multi-linear regression. The result show the performance which obtained from all the GP model, the MLPs model and the M5-Rules model are much better, therefore these three models should be used to analyze and predict the horizontal displacement of the dam.

Keywords: Gaussian processes, horizontal displacement, hydropower dam, Ialy dam, M5-Rules, multi-layer perception neural networks

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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Authors: Essam A. Makky, Chan Cai Wen, Muna Jalal, Mashitah M. Yusoff

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Termites are considered as important pests that could cause severe wood damage and economic losses in urban, agriculture and forest of Malaysia. The ability of termites to degrade cellulose depends on association of gut cellulolytic microflora or better known as mutual symbionts. With the idea of disrupting the mutual symbiotic association, better pest control practices can be attained. This study is aimed to isolate cellulolytic bacteria from the gut of termites and carry out antibacterial studies for the termite. Confirmation of cellulase activity is done by qualitative and quantitative methods. Impacts of antibiotics and their combinations, as well as heavy metals and disinfectants, are conducted by using disc diffusion method. Effective antibacterial agents are then subjected for termite treatment to study the effectiveness of the agents as termiticides. 24 cellulolytic bacteria are isolated, purified and screened from the gut of termites. All isolates were identified as Gram-negative with either rod or cocci in shape. For antibacterial studies result, isolates were found to be 100% sensitive to 4 antibiotics (rifampicin, tetracycline, gentamycin, and neomycin), 2 heavy metals (cadmium and mercury) and 3 disinfectants (lactic acid, formalin, and hydrogen peroxide). 22 out of 36 antibiotic combinations showed synergistic effect while 15 antibiotic combinations showed an antagonistic effect on isolates. The 2 heavy metals and 3 disinfectants that showed 100% effectiveness, as well as 22 antibiotic combinations, that showed synergistic effect were used for termite control. Among the 27 selected antibacterial agents, 12 of them were found to be effective to kill all the termites within 1 to 6 days. Mercury, lactic acid, formalin and hydrogen peroxide were found to be the most effective termiticides in which all termites were killed within 1 day only. These effective antibacterial agents possess a great potential to be a new application to control the termite pest species in the future.

Keywords: antibacterial, cellulase, termicide, termites

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Authors: Qais H. Alsafasfeh

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The aim of this paper is to provide a forecast of the peak demand for the next 15 years for electrical distribution companies. The proposed methodology provides both the peak demand and its location for the next 15 years. This paper describes the Spatial Load Forecasting model used, the information provided by electrical distribution company in Jordan, the workflow followed, the parameters used and the assumptions made to run the model. The aim of this paper is to provide a forecast of the peak demand for the next 15 years for electrical distribution companies. The proposed methodology provides both the peak demand and its location for the next 15 years. This paper describes the Spatial Load Forecasting model used, the information provided by electrical distribution company in Jordan, the workflow followed, the parameters used and the assumptions made to run the model.

Keywords: load forecast, peak demand, spatial load, electrical distribution

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Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

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Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

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Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

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The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

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Authors: Yiseyon Hosu, Joseph Akande

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Wheat is one of the most important staple food grains of human for centuries and is largely consumed in South Africa. It has a special place in the South African economy because of its significance in food security, trade, and industry. This paper modelled and forecast the production and consumption of wheat in South Africa in the time covid-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by using annual time series data from 1940–2021 based on the ARIMA models. Both the averaging forecast and selected models forecast indicate that there is the possibility of an increase with respect to production. The minimum and maximum growth in production is projected to be between 3million and 10 million tons, respectively. However, the model also forecast a possibility of depression with respect to consumption in South Africa. Although Covid-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia, two major producers and exporters of global wheat, are having an effect on the volatility of the prices currently, the wheat production in South African is expected to increase and meat the consumption demand and provided an opportunity for increase export with respect to domestic consumption. The forecasting of production and consumption behaviours of major crops play an important role towards food and nutrition security, these findings can assist policymakers and will provide them with insights into the production and pricing policy of wheat in South Africa.

Keywords: ARIMA, food security, price volatility, staple food, South Africa

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Authors: Akanji Kayode Ayanwusi., Akanji Elizabeth Nike, Bidmos Fuad Adetunji, Oladapo Olufemi Stephen

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This experiment was conducted in Igboora, southwest Nigeria during the year 2022 planting season to determine the bio-efficacy of plant extracts (Jatropha curcas and Petiveria alliacea) and synthetic (Cypermethrin) insecticides against the insect pest of cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) and to determine its effect on the growth and yield of cowpea in the study area. Cowpea is one of the most important food and forage legumes in the semi-arid tropics. It is grown in 45 countries worldwide, including parts of Africa, Asia, Southern Europe, the Southern United States, and Central and South America. Cowpea production is considered too risky an enterprise by many growers because of its numerous pest problems. The treatments for the experiment consisted of two aqueous plant extracts (J.curcas and P. alliacea) at 50 /0 w/v and Cypermethrin 400 EC replicated three times including control in a randomized complete block design. Each plot measured 2.0 m by 2.0 m with 1.0 m inter-spaced per adjacent plot. The results from the study showed that different insect pests attack cowpea at different stages of growth. The insects observed were Bemisa tabaci, Callosobruchus maculatus, Megalurothrips sjostedti, and Maruca vitrata. High yields were obtained from plots treated with P. alliacea and synthetic insecticide (cypermethrin). J. curcas also produced optimum yield but lower than P. alliacea also P. alliacea treated plots had the least damaged pods while the untreated plots had the highest damaged pods, the plants extracts exhibited high insecticidal activities in this study, therefore P. alliacea leaves formulated as an insecticide is recommended for the control of insect pests of cowpea in the study area.

Keywords: plant extracts, yield, cypermethrin., cowpea

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Authors: Osung Im, Neha Yadav, Eui Hoon Lee, Joong Hoon Kim

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Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach is commonly used in lots of fields for forecasting. In water resources engineering, forecast of water level or inflow of reservoir is useful for various kind of purposes. Due to advantages of ANN, many papers were written for inflow prediction in river networks, but in this study, ANN is used in urban sewer networks. The growth of severe rain storm in Korea has increased flood damage severely, and the precipitation distribution is getting more erratic. Therefore, effective pump operation in pump station is an essential task for the reduction in urban area. If real time inflow of pump station reservoir can be predicted, it is possible to operate pump effectively for reducing the flood damage. This study used ANN model for pump station reservoir inflow prediction using upstream sewer depth data. For this study, rainfall events, sewer depth, and inflow into Banpo pump station reservoir between years of 2013-2014 were considered. Feed – Forward Back Propagation (FFBF), Cascade – Forward Back Propagation (CFBP), Elman Back Propagation (EBP) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) were used as ANN model for prediction. A comparison of results with ANN model suggests that ANN is a powerful tool for inflow prediction using the sewer depth data.

Keywords: artificial neural network, forecasting, reservoir inflow, sewer depth

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Authors: AbdelRahman A. Faragalla, Mohamed H. Alqhtani, Mohamed M. M.Ahmed

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Saudi Arabia has currently been beset by a barrage of bizarre assemblages of subterranean termite fauna, inflicting heavy catastrophic havocs on human valued properties in various homes, storage facilities, warehouses, agricultural and horticultural crops including okra, sweet pepper, tomatoes, sorghum, date palm trees, citruses and many forest domains and green lush desert oases. The most pressing urgent priority is to use modern technologies to alleviate the painstaking obstacle of taxonomic identification of these injurious noxious pests that might lead to effective pest control in both infested agricultural commodities and field crops. Our study has indicated the use of DNA fingerprinting technologies, in order to generate basic information of the genetic similarity between 3 predominant families containing the most destructive termite species. The methodologies included extraction and DNA isolation from members of the major families and the use of randomly selected primers and PCR amplifications with the nucleotide sequences. GC content and annealing temperatures for all primers, PCR amplifications and agarose gel electrophoresis were also conducted in addition to the scoring and analysis of Random Amplification Polymorphic DNA-PCR (RAPDs). A phylogenetic analysis for different species using statistical computer program on the basis of RAPD-DNA results, represented as a dendrogram based on the average of band sharing ratio between different species. Our study aims to shed more light on this intriguing subject, which may lead to an expedited display of the kinship and relatedness of species in an ambitious undertaking to arrive at correct taxonomic classification of termite species, discover sibling species, so that a logistic rational pest management strategy could be delineated.

Keywords: DNA fingerprinting, Western Saudi Arabia, DNA primers, RAPD

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Authors: Jacky Hau

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The prevalence of emerging technologies disrupts various industries as well as consumer behavior. Data collection has been in the fingertip and inherited through enabled Internet-of-things (IOT) devices. Big data analytics (BDA) becomes possible and allows real-time demand network management (DNM) through leagile supply chain. To enhance further on its resilience and predictability, governance is going to be examined to promote supply chain transparency and trust in an efficient manner. Leagility combines lean thinking and agile techniques in supply chain management. It aims at reducing costs and waste, as well as maintaining responsiveness to any volatile consumer demand by means of adjusting the decoupling point where the product flow changes from push to pull. Leagility would only be successful when collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR) process or alike is in place throughout the supply chain business entities. Governance and procurement of the supply chain, however, is crucial and challenging for the execution of CPFR as every entity has to walk-the-talk generously for the sake of overall benefits of supply chain performance, not to mention the complexity of exercising the polices at both of within across various supply chain business entities on account of organizational behavior and mutual trust. Empirical survey results showed that the effective timespan on demand forecasting had been drastically shortening in the magnitude of months to weeks planning horizon, thus agility shall come first and preferably following by lean approach in a timely manner.

Keywords: governance, leagility, procure-to-pay, source-to-contract

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hosuk Shin, Eun-Hak Lee, Seung-Young Kho

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This study analyzed and visualized the rental and return data of the public bike sharing system in Seoul, Ttareungyi, from September 2015 to October 2017. With the surge of system users, the number of times of collection and distribution in 2017 increased by three times compared to 2016. The city plans to deploy about 20,000 public bicycles by the end of 2017 to expand the system. Based on about 3.3 million historical data, we calculated the average trip time and the number of trips from one station to another station. The mobility patterns between stations are graphically displayed using R and Tableau. Demand for public bike sharing system is heavily influenced by day and weather. As a result of plotting the number of rentals and returns of some stations on weekdays and weekends at intervals of one hour, there was a difference in rental patterns. As a result of analysis of the rental and return patterns by time of day, there were a lot of returns at the morning peak and more rentals at the afternoon peak at the center of the city. It means that stock of bikes varies largely in the time zone and public bikes should be rebalanced timely. The result of this study can be applied as a primary data to construct the demand forecasting function of the station when establishing the rebalancing strategy of the public bicycle.

Keywords: demand forecasting, mobility patterns, public bike sharing system, visualization

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Kostas Kouvaris, Anastasia Eleftheriou, Georgios A. Sarantitis, Apostolos Chondronasios

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To achieve the objective of almost zero carbon energy solutions by 2050, the EU needs to accelerate the development of integrated, highly efficient and environmentally friendly solutions. In this direction, district heating and cooling (DHC) emerges as a viable and more efficient alternative to conventional, decentralized heating and cooling systems, enabling a combination of more efficient renewable and competitive energy supplies. In this paper, we develop a forecasting tool for near real-time local weather and thermal energy demand predictions for an entire DHC network. In this fashion, we are able to extend the functionality and to improve the energy efficiency of the DHC network by predicting and adjusting the heat load that is distributed from the heat generation plant to the connected buildings by the heat pipe network. Two case-studies are considered; one for Vransko, Slovenia and one for Montpellier, France. The data consists of i) local weather data, such as humidity, temperature, and precipitation, ii) weather forecast data, such as the outdoor temperature and iii) DHC operational parameters, such as the mass flow rate, supply and return temperature. The external temperature is found to be the most important energy-related variable for space conditioning, and thus it is used as an external parameter for the energy demand models. For the development of the forecasting tool, we use state-of-the-art deep neural networks and more specifically, recurrent networks with long-short-term memory cells, which are able to capture complex non-linear relations among temporal variables. Firstly, we develop models to forecast outdoor temperatures for the next 24 hours using local weather data for each case-study. Subsequently, we develop models to forecast thermal demand for the same period, taking under consideration past energy demand values as well as the predicted temperature values from the weather forecasting models. The contributions to the scientific and industrial community are three-fold, and the empirical results are highly encouraging. First, we are able to predict future thermal demand levels for the two locations under consideration with minimal errors. Second, we examine the impact of the outdoor temperature on the predictive ability of the models and how the accuracy of the energy demand forecasts decreases with the forecast horizon. Third, we extend the relevant literature with a new dataset of thermal demand and examine the performance and applicability of machine learning techniques to solve real-world problems. Overall, the solution proposed in this paper is in accordance with EU targets, providing an automated smart energy management system, decreasing human errors and reducing excessive energy production.

Keywords: machine learning, LSTMs, district heating and cooling system, thermal demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

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This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson innovations, conditional maximum likelihood, CML

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Thamer Alshuwaili, Yonglin Ren, Bob Du, Manjree Agarwal

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The warehouse beetle, Trogoderma variabile Ballion (Coleoptera: Dermestidae), is a major pest of packaged and processed stored products. Warehouse beetle is the common name which was given by Okumura (1972). This pest has been reported to infest 119 different commodities, and it is distributed throughout the tropical and subtropical parts of the world. Also, it is difficult to control because of the insect's ability to stay without food for long times, and it can survive for years under dry conditions and low-moisture food, and it has also developed resistance to many insecticides. The young larvae of these insects can cause damage to seeds, but older larvae prefer to feed on whole grains. The percentage of damage caused by these insects range between 30-70% in the storage. T. variabile is the species most responsible for causing significant damage in grain stores worldwide. Trogoderma spp. is a huge problem for cereal grains, and there are many countries, such as the USA, Australia, China, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania who have specific quarantine regulations against possible importation. Also, grain stocks can be almost completely destroyed because of the massive populations the insect may develop. However, the purpose of the current research was to optimize conditions to collect volatile organic compound from Trogoderma variabile at different life stages by using headspace solid phase microextraction (SPME) coupled with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and flame ionization detection (FID). Using SPME technique to extract volatile from insects is an efficient, straightforward and nondestructive method. Result of the study shows that 15 insects were optimal number for larvae and adults. Selection of the number of insects depend on the height of the peak area and the number of peaks. Sixteen hours were optimized as the best extraction time for larvae and 8 hours was the optimal number of adults.

Keywords: Trogoderma variabile, warehouse beetle , GC-MS, Solid phase microextraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Halefom Kidane

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This study aims to assess the wind resource potential and characterize the urban area wind patterns in Hawassa City, Ethiopia. The estimation and characterization of wind resources are crucial for sustainable urban planning, renewable energy development, and climate change mitigation strategies. A secondary data collection method was used to carry out the study. The collected data at 2 meters was analyzed statistically and extrapolated to the standard heights of 10-meter and 30-meter heights using the power law equation. The standard deviation method was used to calculate the value of scale and shape factors. From the analysis presented, the maximum and minimum mean daily wind speed at 2 meters in 2016 was 1.33 m/s and 0.05 m/s in 2017, 1.67 m/s and 0.14 m/s in 2018, 1.61m and 0.07 m/s, respectively. The maximum monthly average wind speed of Hawassa City in 2016 at 2 meters was noticed in the month of December, which is around 0.78 m/s, while in 2017, the maximum wind speed was recorded in the month of January with a wind speed magnitude of 0.80 m/s and in 2018 June was maximum speed which is 0.76 m/s. On the other hand, October was the month with the minimum mean wind speed in all years, with a value of 0.47 m/s in 2016,0.47 in 2017 and 0.34 in 2018. The annual mean wind speed was 0.61 m/s in 2016,0.64, m/s in 2017 and 0.57 m/s in 2018 at a height of 2 meters. From extrapolation, the annual mean wind speeds for the years 2016,2017 and 2018 at 10 heights were 1.17 m/s,1.22 m/s, and 1.11 m/s, and at the height of 30 meters, were 3.34m/s,3.78 m/s, and 3.01 m/s respectively/Thus, the site consists mainly primarily classes-I of wind speed even at the extrapolated heights.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, forecasting, min-max normalization, wind speed

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Authors: Yu-Wen Chen, Szu-Wei Huang, Chung-Hsiang Mu, Kelvin Cheng

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This paper developed a data-driven based model to deal with the causality between the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS, by Environmental Protection Administration, Taiwan) in industrial factories, and the air quality around environment. Compared to the heavy burden of traditional numerical models of regional weather and air pollution simulation, the lightweight burden of the proposed model can provide forecasting hourly with current observations of weather, air pollution and emissions from factories. The observation data are included wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, temperature and others. The observations can be collected real time from Open APIs of civil IoT Taiwan, which are sourced from 439 weather stations, 10,193 qualitative air stations, 77 national quantitative stations and 140 CEMS quantitative industrial factories. This study completed a causal inference engine and gave an air pollution forecasting for the next 12 hours related to local industrial factories. The outcomes of the pollution forecasting are produced hourly with a grid resolution of 1km*1km on IIoTC (Industrial Internet of Things Cloud) and saved in netCDF4 format. The elaborated procedures to generate forecasts comprise data recalibrating, outlier elimination, Kriging Interpolation and particle tracking and random walk techniques for the mechanisms of diffusion and advection. The solution of these equations reveals the causality between factories emission and the associated air pollution. Further, with the aid of installed real-time flue emission (Total Suspension Emission, TSP) sensors and the mentioned forecasted air pollution map, this study also disclosed the converting mechanism between the TSP and PM2.5/PM10 for different region and industrial characteristics, according to the long-term data observation and calibration. These different time-series qualitative and quantitative data which successfully achieved a causal inference engine in cloud for factory management control in practicable. Once the forecasted air quality for a region is marked as harmful, the correlated factories are notified and asked to suppress its operation and reduces emission in advance.

Keywords: continuous emission monitoring system, total suspension particulates, causal inference, air pollution forecast, IoT

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Stephane Laussac, Jacques Piazzola, Gilles Tedeschi

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Estimation of the impact of atmospheric aerosols on the climate evolution is an important scientific challenge. One of a major source of particles is constituted by the oceans through the generation of sea-spray aerosols. In coastal areas, marine aerosols can affect air quality through their ability to interact chemically and physically with other aerosol species and gases. The integration of accurate sea-spray emission terms in modeling studies is then required. However, it was found that sea-spray concentrations are not represented with the necessary accuracy in some situations, more particularly at short fetch. In this study, the WRF-Chem model was implemented on a North-Western Mediterranean coastal region. WRF-Chem is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model online-coupled with chemistry for investigation of regional-scale air quality which simulates the emission, transport, mixing, and chemical transformation of trace gases and aerosols simultaneously with the meteorology. One of the objectives was to test the ability of the WRF-Chem model to represent the fine details of the coastal geography to provide accurate predictions of sea spray evolution for different fetches and the anthropogenic aerosols. To assess the performance of the model, a comparison between the model predictions using a local emission inventory and the physicochemical analysis of aerosol concentrations measured for different wind direction on the island of Porquerolles located 10 km south of the French Riviera is proposed.

Keywords: sea-spray aerosols, coastal areas, sea-spray concentrations, short fetch, WRF-Chem model

Procedia PDF Downloads 175