Search results for: web vulnerabilities

Authors: Ali Kazemi

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The digital evolution of financial services, while offering unprecedented convenience and accessibility, has also escalated the vulnerabilities to fraudulent activities. In this study, we introduce a distinct approach to real-time anomaly detection in financial transactions, aiming to fortify the defenses of banking and financial institutions against such threats. Utilizing unsupervised machine learning algorithms, specifically autoencoders and isolation forests, our research focuses on identifying irregular patterns indicative of fraud within transactional data, thus enabling immediate action to prevent financial loss. The data we used in this study included the monetary value of each transaction. This is a crucial feature as fraudulent transactions may have distributions of different amounts than legitimate ones, such as timestamps indicating when transactions occurred. Analyzing transactions' temporal patterns can reveal anomalies (e.g., unusual activity in the middle of the night). Also, the sector or category of the merchant where the transaction occurred, such as retail, groceries, online services, etc. Specific categories may be more prone to fraud. Moreover, the type of payment used (e.g., credit, debit, online payment systems). Different payment methods have varying risk levels associated with fraud. This dataset, anonymized to ensure privacy, reflects a wide array of transactions typical of a global banking institution, ranging from small-scale retail purchases to large wire transfers, embodying the diverse nature of potentially fraudulent activities. By engineering features that capture the essence of transactions, including normalized amounts and encoded categorical variables, we tailor our data to enhance model sensitivity to anomalies. The autoencoder model leverages its reconstruction error mechanism to flag transactions that deviate significantly from the learned normal pattern, while the isolation forest identifies anomalies based on their susceptibility to isolation from the dataset's majority. Our experimental results, validated through techniques such as k-fold cross-validation, are evaluated using precision, recall, and the F1 score alongside the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Our models achieved an F1 score of 0.85 and a ROC AUC of 0.93, indicating high accuracy in detecting fraudulent transactions without excessive false positives. This study contributes to the academic discourse on financial fraud detection and provides a practical framework for banking institutions seeking to implement real-time anomaly detection systems. By demonstrating the effectiveness of unsupervised learning techniques in a real-world context, our research offers a pathway to significantly reduce the incidence of financial fraud, thereby enhancing the security and trustworthiness of digital financial services.

Keywords: anomaly detection, financial fraud, machine learning, autoencoders, isolation forest, transactional data analysis

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Authors: Yuna Lee

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In the current policy process, there has been a growing interest in more open approaches that incorporate creativity and innovation based on the forecasting groups composed by the public and experts together into scientific data-driven foresight methods to implement more effective policymaking. Especially, citizen participation as collective intelligence in policymaking with design and deep scale of innovation at the global level has been developed and human-centred design thinking is considered as one of the most promising methods for strategic foresight. Yet, there is a lack of a common theoretical foundation for a comprehensive approach for the current situation of and post-COVID-19 era, and substantial changes in policymaking practice are insignificant and ongoing with trial and error. This project hypothesized that rigorously developed policy systems and tools that support strategic foresight by considering the public understanding could maximize ways to create new possibilities for a preferable future, however, it must involve a better understating of Behavioural Insights, including individual and cultural values, profit motives and needs, and psychological motivations, for implementing holistic and multilateral foresight and creating more positive possibilities. To what extent is the policymaking system theoretically possible that incorporates the holistic and comprehensive foresight and policy process implementation, assuming that theory and practice, in reality, are different and not connected? What components and environmental conditions should be included in the strategic foresight system to enhance the capacity of decision from policymakers to predict alternative futures, or detect uncertainties of the future more accurately? And, compared to the required environmental condition, what are the environmental vulnerabilities of the current policymaking system? In this light, this research contemplates the question of how effectively policymaking practices have been implemented through the synthesis of scientific, technology-oriented innovation with the strategic design for tackling complex societal challenges and devising more significant insights to make society greener and more liveable. Here, this study conceptualizes the notions of a new collaborative way of strategic foresight that aims to maximize mutual benefits between policy actors and citizens through the cooperation stemming from evolutionary game theory. This study applies mixed methodology, including interviews of policy experts, with the case in which digital transformation and strategic design provided future-oriented solutions or directions to cities’ sustainable development goals and society-wide urgent challenges such as COVID-19. As a result, artistic and sensual interpreting capabilities through strategic design promote a concrete form of ideas toward a stable connection from the present to the future and enhance the understanding and active cooperation among decision-makers, stakeholders, and citizens. Ultimately, an improved theoretical foundation proposed in this study is expected to help strategically respond to the highly interconnected future changes of the post-COVID-19 world.

Keywords: policymaking, strategic design, sustainable innovation, evolution of cooperation

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Authors: Akiko Ohta, Masahiro Minami, Yusra Qadir, Jennifer York

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The Home Instruction for Parents of Preschool Youngsters (HIPPY) is a home instruction program for mothers of children 3 to 5 years old. Using role-play as a method of teaching, the participating mothers work with their home visitors and learn how to deliver the HIPPY curriculum to their children. Applying HIPPY, Reviving Hope and Home for High-risk Refugee Mothers Program (RHH) was created to provide more personalized peer support and to respond to ongoing settlement challenges for isolated and vulnerable Government Assisted Refugee (GAR) mothers. GARs often have greater needs and vulnerabilities than other refugee groups. While the support is available, they often face various challenges and barriers in starting their new lives in Canada, such as inadequate housing, low first-language literacy levels, low competency in English or French, and social isolation. The pilot project was operated by Mothers Matter Centre (MMC) from January 2019 to March 2021 in partnership with the Immigrant Services Society of BC (ISSofBC). The formative evaluation was conducted by a research team at Simon Fraser University. In order to provide more suitable support for GAR mothers, RHH intended to offer more flexibility in HIPPY delivery, supported by a home visitor, to meet the need of refugee mothers facing various conditions and challenges; to have a pool of financial resources to be used for the RHH families when necessitated during the program period; to have another designated staff member, called a community navigator, assigned to facilitate the support system for the RHH families in their settlement; to have a portable device available for each RHH mother to navigate settlement support resources; and to provide other variations of the HIPPY curriculum as an option for the RHH mothers, including a curriculum targeting pre-HIPPY age children. Reflections on each program component was collected from RHH mothers and staff members of MMC and ISSofBC, including frontline workers and management staff, through individual interviews and focus group discussions. Each of the RHH program components was analyzed and evaluated by applying Moore’s four domains framework to identify key information and generate new knowledge (data). To capture RHH mothers’ program experience more in depth based on their own reflections, the photovoice method was used. Some photos taken by the mothers will be shared to illustrate their RHH experience as part of their life stories. Over the period of the program, this evaluation observed how RHH mothers became more confident in various domains, such as communicating with others, taking public transportations alone, and teaching their own child(ren). One of the major factors behind the success was their home visitors’ flexibility and creativity to create a more meaningful and tailored approach for each mother, depending on her background and personal situation. The role of the community navigator was tested out and improved during the program period. The community navigators took the key role to assess the needs of the RHH families and connect them with community resources. Both the home visitors and community navigators were immigrant mothers themselves and owing to their dedicated care for the RHH mothers; they were able to gain trust and work closely and efficiently with RHH mothers.

Keywords: refugee mothers, settlement support, program evaluation, Canada

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Authors: Anantha S. Babbili

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This paper analyzes the current media practices dominant in global journalistic practices within the framework of world press theories of Libertarian, Authoritarian, Communist, and Social Responsibility to evaluate their efficacy in addressing their role in the coverage of the coronavirus, also known as COVID-19. The global media flows, determinants of news coverage, and international awareness and the Western view of the world will be critically analyzed within the context of the prevalent news values that underpin free press and media coverage of the world. While evaluating the global discourse paramount to a sustained and dispassionate understanding of world events, this paper proposes an ethical framework that brings clarity devoid of sensationalism, partisanship, right-wing and left-wing interpretations to a breaking and dangerous development of a pandemic. As the world struggles to contain the coronavirus pandemic with death climbing close to 6,000 from late January to mid-March, 2020, the populations of the developed as well as the developing nations are beset with news media renditions of the crisis that are contradictory, confusing and evoking anxiety, fear and hysteria. How are we to understand differing news standards and news values? What lessons do we as journalism and mass media educators, researchers, and academics learn in order to construct a better news model and structure of media practice that addresses science, health, and media literacy among media practitioners, journalists, and news consumers? As traditional media struggles to cover the pandemic to its audience and consumers, social media from which an increasing number of consumers get their news have exerted their influence both in a positive way and in a negative manner. Even as the world struggles to grasp the full significance of the pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) has been feverishly battling an additional challenge related to the pandemic in what it termed an 'infodemic'—'an overabundance of information, some accurate and some not, that makes it hard for people to find trustworthy sources and reliable guidance when they need it.' There is, indeed, a need for journalism and news coverage in times of pandemics that reflect social responsibility and ethos of public service journalism. Social media and high-tech information corporations, collectively termed GAMAF—Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook – can team up with reliable traditional media—newspapers, magazines, book publishers, radio and television corporates—to ease public emotions and be helpful in times of a pandemic outbreak. GAMAF can, conceivably, weed out sensational and non-credible sources of coronavirus information, exotic cures offered for sale on a quick fix, and demonetize videos that exploit peoples’ vulnerabilities at the lowest ebb. Credible news of utility delivered in a sustained, calm, and reliable manner serves people in a meaningful and helpful way. The world’s consumers of news and information, indeed, deserve a healthy and trustworthy news media – at least in the time of pandemic COVID-19. Towards this end, the paper will propose a practical model for news media and journalistic coverage during times of a pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19, international news flow, social media, social responsibility

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Authors: A. G. Back

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Urban planning is a relevant tool to address, in a systemic way, several sectoral policies capable of linking the urban agenda with the reduction of socio-environmental risks. The Sao Paulo’s master plan (2014) presents innovations capable of promoting the transition to sustainability in the urban space, with a view to its regulatory instruments related to i) promotion of density in the axes of mass transport involving the mixture of commercial, residential, services, and leisure uses (principles related to the compact city); ii) vulnerabilities reduction based on housing policies including regular sources of funds for social housing and land reservation in urbanized areas; iii) reserve of green areas in the city to create parks and environmental regulations for new buildings focused on reducing the effects of heat island and improving urban drainage. However, its long-term implementation involves distributive conflicts and can undergo changes in different political, economic, and social contexts over time. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to identify and analyze the dynamics of conflicts of interest between social groups in the implementation of Sao Paulo’s urban development policy, particularly in relation to recent attempts at a (re) interpretation of the Master Plan guidelines, in view of the proposals for revision of the urban zoning law. In this sense, we seek to identify the demands, narratives of urban actors, including the real estate market, middle-class neighborhood associations ('not in my backyard' movements), and social housing rights movements. And we seek to analyze the power resources that these actors mobilize to influence the decision-making process, involving five categories: social capital, political access; discursive resource; media, juridical resource. The major findings of this research suggest that the interests and demands of the real estate market do not always prevail in urban regulation. After all, other actors also press for the definition of urban law with interests opposite to those of the real estate market. This is the case of associations of middle-class neighborhoods, which work to protect the characteristics of the locality, acting, in general, to prevent constructive and population densification in neighborhoods well located near the center, in São Paulo. One of the main demands of these “not in my backyard” movements is the delimitation of exclusively residential areas in the central region of the city, which is not only contrary to the interests of the real state market but also contrary to the principles of the compact city. On the other hand, social housing rights movements have also made progress in delimiting special areas of social interest in well-located and valued areas in the city dedicated to building social housing, also contrary to the interests of the real estate market. An urban development that follows the principles of the compact city must take into account the insertion of low-income populations in well-located regions; otherwise, such a development model may continue to push the less favored to the peripheries towards the preservation areas and/or risk areas.

Keywords: interest groups, Sao Paulo, sustainable urban development, urban policies implementation

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Authors: Andrew D. Henshaw

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The research examines the influence of familial and kinship based leadership on the resilience of politically violent organizations. Organizations of this type frequently fight in the same conflicts though are called 'terrorist' or 'insurgent' depending on political foci of the time, and thus different approaches are used to combat them. The research considers them correlated phenomena with significant overlap and identifies strengths and vulnerabilities in resilience processes. The research employs paired case studies to examine resilience in organizations under significant external pressure, and achieves this by measuring three variables. 1: Organizational robustness in terms of leadership and governance. 2. Bounce-back response efficiency to external pressures and adaptation to endogenous and exogenous shock. 3. Perpetuity of operational and attack capability, and political legitimacy. The research makes three hypotheses. First, familial/kinship leadership groups have a significant effect on organizational resilience in terms of informal operations. Second, non-familial/kinship organizations suffer in terms of heightened security transaction costs and social economics surrounding recruitment, retention, and replacement. Third, resilience in non-familial organizations likely stems from critical external supports like state sponsorship or powerful patrons, rather than organic resilience dynamics. The case studies pair familial organizations with non-familial organizations. Set 1: The Haqqani Network (HQN) - Pair: Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). Set 2: Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) - Pair: The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). Case studies were selected based on three requirements, being: contrasting governance types, exposure to significant external pressures and, geographical similarity. The case study sets were examined over 24 months following periods of significantly heightened operational activities. This enabled empirical measurement of the variables as substantial external pressures came into force. The rationale for the research is obvious. Nearly all organizations have some nexus of familial interconnectedness. Examining familial leadership networks does not provide further understanding of how terrorism and insurgency originate, however, the central focus of the research does address how they persist. The sparse attention to this in existing literature presents an unexplored yet important area of security studies. Furthermore, social capital in familial systems is largely automatic and organic, given at birth or through kinship. It reduces security vetting cost for recruits, fighters and supporters which lowers liabilities and entry costs, while raising organizational efficiency and exit costs. Better understanding of these process is needed to exploit strengths into weaknesses. Outcomes and implications of the research have critical relevance to future operational policy development. Increased clarity of internal trust dynamics, social capital and power flows are essential to fracturing and manipulating kinship nexus. This is highly valuable to external pressure mechanisms such as counter-terrorism, counterinsurgency, and strategic intelligence methods to penetrate, manipulate, degrade or destroy the resilience of politically violent organizations.

Keywords: Counterinsurgency (COIN), counter-terrorism, familial influence, insurgency, intelligence, kinship, resilience, terrorism

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Authors: Richard McGregor, Carmen Reaiche, Stephen Boyle

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Cyber threats are a relatively recent phenomenon and offer cyber insurers a dynamic and intelligent peril. As individuals en mass become increasingly digitally dependent, Personal Cyber Insurance (PCI) offers an attractive option to mitigate cyber risk at a personal level. This abstract proposes a literature review that conceptualises a framework for siting Personal Cyber Insurance (PCI) within the context of cyberspace. The lack of empirical research within this domain demonstrates an immediate need to define the scope of PCI to allow cyber insurers to understand personal cyber risk threats and vectors, customer awareness, capabilities, and their associated needs. Additionally, this will allow cyber insurers to conceptualise appropriate frameworks allowing effective management and distribution of PCI products and services within a landscape often in-congruent with risk attributes commonly associated with traditional personal line insurance products. Cyberspace has provided significant improvement to the quality of social connectivity and productivity during past decades and allowed enormous capability uplift of information sharing and communication between people and communities. Conversely, personal digital dependency furnish ample opportunities for adverse cyber events such as data breaches and cyber-attacksthus introducing a continuous and insidious threat of omnipresent cyber risk–particularly since the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic and wide-spread adoption of ‘work-from-home’ practices. Recognition of escalating inter-dependencies, vulnerabilities and inadequate personal cyber behaviours have prompted efforts by businesses and individuals alike to investigate strategies and tactics to mitigate cyber risk – of which cyber insurance is a viable, cost-effective option. It is argued that, ceteris parabus, the nature of cyberspace intrinsically provides characteristic peculiarities that pose significant and bespoke challenges to cyber insurers, often in-congruent with risk attributes commonly associated with traditional personal line insurance products. These challenges include (inter alia) a paucity of historical claim/loss data for underwriting and pricing purposes, interdependencies of cyber architecture promoting high correlation of cyber risk, difficulties in evaluating cyber risk, intangibility of risk assets (such as data, reputation), lack of standardisation across the industry, high and undetermined tail risks, and moral hazard among others. This study proposes a thematic overview of the literature deemed necessary to conceptualise the challenges to issuing personal cyber coverage. There is an evident absence of empirical research appertaining to PCI and the design of operational business models for this business domain, especially qualitative initiatives that (1) attempt to define the scope of the peril, (2) secure an understanding of the needs of both cyber insurer and customer, and (3) to identify elements pivotal to effective management and profitable distribution of PCI - leading to an argument proposed by the author that postulates that the traditional general insurance customer journey and business model are ill-suited for the lineaments of cyberspace. The findings of the review confirm significant gaps in contemporary research within the domain of personal cyber insurance.

Keywords: cyberspace, personal cyber risk, personal cyber insurance, customer journey, business model

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Authors: Lewis Mehl-Madrona, Barbara Mainguy, Patrick McFarlane

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Introduction: There are many risk factors for attempting suicide, including young age, “minority stress,” which would include Transgender and Gender Diverse orientations (TGD). The rate of TGD youths for suicide attempts is 3 times higher than heterosexual cis-gender youth. Half of TGD youth have seriously contemplated taking their own lives; of those, about half attempted suicide; and 18% of the TGD teenagers reported suicidal thoughts linked to their gender identity. Native American TGD have a six times higher suicide attempt rate. Conventional mental health has not generally helped these individuals. Stigma and discrimination contribute to healthcare disparities. Storytelling plays a crucial role in the development of human culture and individual identities. Sharing narrative artwork, creative writing, and personal stories allow people to build trust and to share their vulnerabilities. This helps people become aware of themselves in relation to others and gain a sense of comfort that their stories are similar; they may also be transformed in the process. Art provides a means to reach people who are otherwise difficult to engage in services. Methods: TGD individuals are recruited through a snowballing procedure. Following a life story interview, participants complete a scale of gender dysphoria, identification with conventional masculinity, patient-reported anxiety, and depression measure, and a quality-of-life scale. The interview completes the Columbia Suicide Scale. Following this, an artist and a therapist works with the participant to create a story related to their gender identity using the six-part story method. This story is then rendered to an artists’ book, which combines narrative with art (drawings, collage, computer images, etc.) and can take the form of a graphic novella, a zine, or a comic book. The pages can range from plain to ornate, as can the covers. Participants describe their process of making the books as the work unfolds and then participate in an exit interview at the completion of their book, remarking on what has changed for them and how the process affected them. Results: Preliminary results show high levels of suicidal thoughts among this population, as expected. Participants participate enthusiastically in the life story interview process and in the construction of a story related to gender identity. They enthusiastically participate in the studio process of putting their story into the form of a graphic novel, zine, or comic book. Participants reported feeling more comfortable with their TGD identity after the process and more able to resist negative judgments of family members and society. Suicidal thoughts diminish, and participants reported improved emotional wellbeing. Quantitative analysis of questionnaire data is underway Conclusions: A process in which narrative therapy is combined with art therapy shows promise for attracting and helping TGD individuals to reduce their risk for suicide without the stigma of going for mental health treatment. This process can be done outside of conventional mental health settings, on college and University campuses. This can provide an exciting alternative pathway for minority stressed and stigmatized individuals to engage in reflective, psychotherapeutic work without the trappings of psychotherapy or mental health treatment.

Keywords: minority stress, narrative process, artists' books, life story interview

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Authors: Jose L. Diego, Antonio Berlanga, Gregorio López, Diana López

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The Rayuela method is a success story, as it is part of a project selected by the European Commission to face the challenge launched by itself for achieving a better understanding of human factors, as well as social and organisational aspects that are able to solve issues in fighting against crime. Rayuela's method specifically focuses on the drivers of cyber criminality, including approaches to prevent, investigate, and mitigate cybercriminal behavior. As the internet has become an integral part of young people’s lives, they are the key target of the Rayuela method because they (as a victim or as a perpetrator) are the most vulnerable link of the chain. Considering the increased time spent online and the control of their internet usage and the low level of awareness of cyber threats and their potential impact, it is understandable the proliferation of incidents due to human mistakes. 51% of Europeans feel not well informed about cyber threats, and 86% believe that the risk of becoming a victim of cybercrime is rapidly increasing. On the other hand, Law enforcement has noted that more and more young people are increasingly committing cybercrimes. This is an international problem that has considerable cost implications; it is estimated that crimes in cyberspace will cost the global economy $445B annually. Understanding all these phenomena drives to the necessity of a shift in focus from sanctions to deterrence and prevention. As a research project, Rayuela aims to bring together law enforcement agencies (LEAs), sociologists, psychologists, anthropologists, legal experts, computer scientists, and engineers, to develop novel methodologies that allow better understanding the factors affecting online behavior related to new ways of cyber criminality, as well as promoting the potential of these young talents for cybersecurity and technologies. Rayuela’s main goal is to better understand the drivers and human factors affecting certain relevant ways of cyber criminality, as well as empower and educate young people in the benefits, risks, and threats intrinsically linked to the use of the Internet by playing, thus preventing and mitigating cybercriminal behavior. In order to reach that goal it´s necessary an interdisciplinary consortium (formed by 17 international partners) carries out researches and actions like Profiling and case studies of cybercriminals and victims, risk assessments, studies on Internet of Things and its vulnerabilities, development of a serious gaming environment, training activities, data analysis and interpretation using Artificial intelligence, testing and piloting, etc. For facilitating the real implementation of the Rayuela method, as a community policing strategy, is crucial to count on a Police Force with a solid background in trust-building and community policing in order to do the piloting, specifically with young people. In this sense, Valencia Local Police is a pioneer Police Force working with young people in conflict solving, through providing police mediation and peer mediation services and advice. As an example, it is an official mediation institution, so agreements signed by their police mediators have once signed by the parties, the value of a judicial decision.

Keywords: fight against crime and insecurity, avert and prepare young people against aggression, ICT, serious gaming and artificial intelligence against cybercrime, conflict solving and mediation with young people

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Authors: Antonis Skouloudis, Konstantinos Evangelinos, Walter Leal-Filho, Panagiotis Vouros, Ioannis Nikolaou

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Organizational resilience capacity to extreme weather events (EWEs) has sparked a growth in scholarly attention over the past decade as an essential aspect in business continuity management, with supporting evidence for this claim to suggest that it retains a key role in successful responses to adverse situations, crises and shocks. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more vulnerable to face floods compared to their larger counterparts, so they are disproportionately affected by such extreme weather events. The limited resources at their disposal, the lack of time and skills all conduce to inadequate preparedness to challenges posed by floods. SMEs tend to plan in the short-term, reacting to circumstances as they arise and focussing on their very survival. Likewise, they share less formalised structures and codified policies while they are most usually owner-managed, resulting in a command-and-control management culture. Such characteristics result in them having limited opportunities to recover from flooding and quickly turnaround their operation from a loss making to a profit making one. Scholars frame the capacity of business entities to be resilient upon an EWE disturbance (such as flash floods) as the rate of recovery and restoration of organizational performance to pre-disturbance conditions, the amount of disturbance (i.e. threshold level) a business can absorb before losing structural and/or functional components that will alter or cease operation, as well as the extent to which the organization maintains its function (i.e. impact resistance) before performance levels are driven to zero. Nevertheless, while it seems to be accepted as an essential trait of firms effectively transcending uncertain conditions, research deconstructing the enabling conditions and/or inhibitory factors of SMEs resilience capacity to natural hazards is still sparse, fragmentary and mostly fuelled by anecdotal evidence or normative assumptions. Focusing on the individual level of analysis, i.e. the individual enterprise and its endeavours to succeed, the emergent picture from this relatively new research strand delineates the specification of variables, conceptual relationships or dynamic boundaries of resilience capacity components in an attempt to provide prescriptions for policy-making as well as business management. This study will present the development of a flood resilience capacity index (FRCI) and its application to Greek SMEs. The proposed composite indicator pertains to cognitive, behavioral/managerial and contextual factors that influence an enterprise’s ability to shape effective responses to meet flood challenges. Through the proposed indicator-based approach, an analytical framework is set forth that will help standardize such assessments with the overarching aim of reducing the vulnerability of SMEs to flooding. This will be achieved by identifying major internal and external attributes explaining resilience capacity which is particularly important given the limited resources these enterprises have and that they tend to be primary sources of vulnerabilities in supply chain networks, generating Single Points of Failure (SPOF).

Keywords: Floods, Small & Medium-Sized enterprises, organizational resilience capacity, index development

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Authors: Yiqi Zhu, Jean Francois Trani, Rameez Ulhassan

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Extreme weather phenomena increased by 46% between 2007 and 2017 and have become more intense with the rise in global average temperatures. This increased intensity of climate variations often induces humanitarian crises and particularly affects vulnerable populations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Expectant and lactating mothers are among the most vulnerable groups. Pakistan ranks 10th among the most affected countries by climate disasters. In 2022, monsoon floods submerged a third of the country, causing the loss of 1,500 lives. Approximately 650,000 expectant and lactating mothers faced systematic stress from climatic disasters. Our study used participatory methods to investigate the systematic impact of climatic disasters on maternal health. In March 2023, we conducted six Group Model Building (GMB) workshops with healthcare workers, fathers, and mothers separately in two of the most affected areas in Pakistan. This study was approved by the Islamic Relief Research Review Board. GMB workshops consist of three sessions. In the first session, participants discussed the factors that impact maternal health. After identifying the factors, they discussed the connections among them and explored the system structures that collectively impact maternal health. Based on the discussion, a causal loop diagram (CLD) was created. Finally, participants discussed action ideas that could improve the system to enhance maternal health. Based on our discussions and the causal loop diagram, we identified interconnected factors at the family, community, and policy levels. Mothers and children are directly impacted by three interrelated factors: food insecurity, unstable housing, and lack of income. These factors create a reinforcing cycle that negatively affects both mothers and newborns. After the flood, many mothers were unable to produce sufficient breastmilk due to their health status. Without breastmilk and sufficient food for complementary feeding, babies tend to get sick in damp and unhygienic environments resulting from temporary or unstable housing. When parents take care of sick children, they miss out on income-generating opportunities. At the community level, the lack of access to clean water and sanitation (WASH) and maternal healthcare further worsens the situation. Structural failures such as a lack of safety nets and programs associated with flood preparedness make families increasingly vulnerable with each disaster. Several families reported that they had not fully recovered from a flood that occurred ten years ago, and this latest disaster destroyed their lives again. Although over twenty non-profit organizations are working in these villages, few of them provide sustainable support. Therefore, participants called for systemic changes in response to the increasing frequency of climate disasters. The study reveals the systematic vulnerabilities of mothers and children after climatic disasters. The most vulnerable populations are often affected the most by climate change. Collaborative efforts are required to improve water and forest management, strengthen public infrastructure, increase access to WASH, and gradually build climate-resilient communities. Governments, non-governmental organizations, and the community should work together to develop and implement effective strategies to prevent, mitigate, and adapt to climate change and its impacts.

Keywords: climatic disasters, maternal health, Pakistan, systematic impact, flood, disaster relief.

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Authors: H. M. El-Askary, S. A. Abd El-Mawla, M. Allali, M. M. El-Hattab, M. El-Raey, A. M. Farahat, M. Kafatos, S. Nickovic, S. K. Park, A. K. Prasad, C. Rakovski, W. Sprigg, D. Struppa, A. Vukovic

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A clear distinction between weather and climate is a necessity because while they are closely related, there are still important differences. Climate change is identified when we compute the statistics of the observed changes in weather over space and time. In this work we will show how the changing climate contribute to the frequency, magnitude and extent of different extreme events using a multi sensor approach with some synergistic modeling activities. We are exploring satellite observations of dust over North Africa, Gulf Region and the Indo Gangetic basin as well as dust versus anthropogenic pollution events over the Delta region in Egypt and Seoul through remote sensing and utilize the behavior of the dust and haze on the aerosol optical properties. Dust impact on the retreat of the glaciers in the Himalayas is also presented. In this study we also focus on the identification and monitoring of a massive dust plume that blew off the western coast of Africa towards the Atlantic on October 8th, 2012 right before the development of Hurricane Sandy. There is evidence that dust aerosols played a non-trivial role in the cyclogenesis process of Sandy. Moreover, a special dust event "An American Haboob" in Arizona is discussed as it was predicted hours in advance because of the great improvement we have in numerical, land–atmosphere modeling, computing power and remote sensing of dust events. Therefore we performed a full numerical simulation to that event using the coupled atmospheric-dust model NMME–DREAM after generating a mask of the potentially dust productive regions using land cover and vegetation data obtained from satellites. Climate change also contributes to the deterioration of different marine habitats. In that regard we are also presenting some work dealing with change detection analysis of Marine Habitats over the city of Hurghada, Red Sea, Egypt. The motivation for this work came from the fact that coral reefs at Hurghada have undergone significant decline. They are damaged, displaced, polluted, stepped on, and blasted off, in addition to the effects of climate change on the reefs. One of the most pressing issues affecting reef health is mass coral bleaching that result from an interaction between human activities and climatic changes. Over another location, namely California, we have observed that it exhibits highly-variable amounts of precipitation across many timescales, from the hourly to the climate timescale. Frequently, heavy precipitation occurs, causing damage to property and life (floods, landslides, etc.). These extreme events, variability, and the lack of good, medium to long-range predictability of precipitation are already a challenge to those who manage wetlands, coastal infrastructure, agriculture and fresh water supply. Adding on to the current challenges for long-range planning is climate change issue. It is known that La Niña and El Niño affect precipitation patterns, which in turn are entwined with global climate patterns. We have studied ENSO impact on precipitation variability over different climate divisions in California. On the other hand the Nile Delta has experienced lately an increase in the underground water table as well as water logging, bogging and soil salinization. Those impacts would pose a major threat to the Delta region inheritance and existing communities. There has been an undergoing effort to address those vulnerabilities by looking into many adaptation strategies.

Keywords: remote sensing, modeling, long range transport, dust storms, North Africa, Gulf Region, India, California, climate extremes, sea level rise, coral reefs

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