Search results for: granular beds
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 352

Search results for: granular beds

142 Modeling Sediment Transports under Extreme Storm Situation along Persian Gulf North Coast

Authors: Majid Samiee Zenoozian

Abstract:

The Persian Gulf is a bordering sea with an normal depth of 35 m and a supreme depth of 100 m near its narrow appearance. Its lengthen bathymetric axis divorces two main geological shires — the steady Arabian Foreland and the unbalanced Iranian Fold Belt — which are imitated in the conflicting shore and bathymetric morphologies of Arabia and Iran. The sediments were experimented with from 72 offshore positions through an oceanographic cruise in the winter of 2018. Throughout the observation era, several storms and river discharge actions happened, as well as the major flood on record since 1982. Suspended-sediment focus at all three sites varied in reaction to both wave resuspension and advection of river-derived sediments. We used hydrological models to evaluation and associate the wave height and inundation distance required to carriage the rocks inland. Our results establish that no known or possible storm happening on the Makran coast is accomplished of detaching and transporting the boulders. The fluid mud consequently is conveyed seaward due to gravitational forcing. The measured sediment focus and velocity profiles on the shelf provide a strong indication to provision this assumption. The sediment model is joined with a 3D hydrodynamic module in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model that offers data on estuarine rotation and salinity transport under normal temperature conditions. 3-D sediment transport from model simulations specify dynamic sediment resuspension and transport near zones of highly industrious oyster beds.

Keywords: sediment transport, storm, coast, fluid dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 111
141 Palynology of the Cretaceous Deposits of the Southeast Sirt Basin, Libya

Authors: Khaled Mahmud Gaddah

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Cretaceous deposits in the southeast of the Sirt Basin of Libya occur in several grabens that formed during a major phase of rifting related to the opening of the Tethys. They include continental deposits of Early Cretaceous age that belong to the Nubian Formation and marginal to fully marine deposits of Late Cretaceous age that belong to the Lidam Formation and transitional beds. The sequence was extensively sampled from twenty-two boreholes and palynologically analysed. Much of the sequence is barren. However, subordinate shales in all formations yield diverse assemblages of poorly to well preserved and thermally middle to post mature palynomorphs. Most of the assemblages contain non-marine palynomorphs (spores, pollen, and freshwater algae), although some contain rare marine elements (dinoflagellate cysts and acritarchs). The palynofloras enabled the recognition of six assemblage zones of the late Barremian-Turonian age based on the dominant and base/top occurrences of stratigraphically useful palynomorphs: AI (Afropollisspp.-Aequitriraditesspinulosus) of late Barremian age; AIIa (Scenedesmusbifidus-S. sp.) of late Barremian?-early Aptian age; AIIb (Afropollisoperculatus-A. zonatus) of Aptian age; AIII (Crybelosporitespannuceus-Afropollisjardinus) of early Albian age; AIV (Subtilisphaera sp.-Lophosphaeridiumspp.) of Cenomanian-?Turonian age; AIV (Pediastrumbifidites-Leiosphaeridiaspp.) of Cenomanian?-Turonian age. These assemblages are comparable to others from Northern Gondwana (particularly from Libya and Egypt) and correspond to established Cretaceous palynofloral provinces. Palynofacies analysis is used to interpret the depositional environments, and five palynofacies types are recognised that reflect increasing marine influence up section.

Keywords: palynology, palynomorphs, palynofacies, tethys, sirt basin

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140 Identification of Microbial Community in an Anaerobic Reactor Treating Brewery Wastewater

Authors: Abimbola M. Enitan, John O. Odiyo, Feroz M. Swalaha

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The study of microbial ecology and their function in anaerobic digestion processes are essential to control the biological processes. This is to know the symbiotic relationship between the microorganisms that are involved in the conversion of complex organic matter in the industrial wastewater to simple molecules. In this study, diversity and quantity of bacterial community in the granular sludge taken from the different compartments of a full-scale upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor treating brewery wastewater was investigated using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR). The phylogenetic analysis showed three major eubacteria phyla that belong to Proteobacteria, Firmicutes and Chloroflexi in the full-scale UASB reactor, with different groups populating different compartment. The result of qPCR assay showed high amount of eubacteria with increase in concentration along the reactor’s compartment. This study extends our understanding on the diverse, topological distribution and shifts in concentration of microbial communities in the different compartments of a full-scale UASB reactor treating brewery wastewater. The colonization and the trophic interactions among these microbial populations in reducing and transforming complex organic matter within the UASB reactors were established.

Keywords: bacteria, brewery wastewater, real-time quantitative PCR, UASB reactor

Procedia PDF Downloads 253
139 Applying Lean Six Sigma in an Emergency Department, of a Private Hospital

Authors: Sarah Al-Lumai, Fatima Al-Attar, Nour Jamal, Badria Al-Dabbous, Manal Abdulla

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Today, many commonly used Industrial Engineering tools and techniques are being used in hospitals around the world for the goal of producing a more efficient and effective healthcare system. A common quality improvement methodology known as Lean Six-Sigma has been successful in manufacturing industries and recently in healthcare. The objective of our project is to use the Lean Six-Sigma methodology to reduce waiting time in the Emergency Department (ED), in a local private hospital. Furthermore, a comprehensive literature review was conducted to evaluate the success of Lean Six-Sigma in the ED. According to the study conducted by Ibn Sina Hospital, in Morocco, the most common problem that patients complain about is waiting time. To ensure patient satisfaction many hospitals such as North Shore University Hospital were able to reduce waiting time up to 37% by using Lean Six-Sigma. Other hospitals, such as John Hopkins’s medical center used Lean Six-Sigma successfully to enhance the overall patient flow that ultimately decreased waiting time. Furthermore, it was found that capacity constraints, such as staff shortages and lack of beds were one of the main reasons behind long waiting time. With the use of Lean Six-Sigma and bed management, hospitals like Memorial Hermann Southwest Hospital were able to reduce patient delays. Moreover, in order to successfully implement Lean Six-Sigma in our project, two common methodologies were considered, DMAIC and DMADV. After the assessment of both methodologies, it was found that DMAIC was a more suitable approach to our project because it is more concerned with improving an already existing process. With many of its successes, Lean Six-Sigma has its limitation especially in healthcare; but limitations can be minimized if properly approached.

Keywords: lean six sigma, DMAIC, hospital, methodology

Procedia PDF Downloads 489
138 Experimental Study of the Dynamics of Sediments in Natural Channels in a Non-Stationary Flow Regime

Authors: Fourar Ali, Fourar Fatima Zohra

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Knowledge of sediment characteristics is fundamental to understanding their sedimentary functioning: sedimentation, settlement, and erosion processes of cohesive sediments are controlled by complex interactions between physical, chemical, and biological factors. Sediment transport is of primary importance in river hydraulics and river engineering. Indeed, the displacement of sediments can lead to lasting modifications of the bed in terms of its elevation, slope and roughness. The protection of a bank, for example, is likely to initiate a local incision of the river bed, which, in turn, can lead to the subsidence of the bank. The flows in the natural environment occur in general with heterogeneous boundary conditions because of the distribution of the roughnesses of the fixed or mobile bottoms and of the important deformations of the free surface, especially for the flows with a weak draft considering the irregularity of the bottom. Bedforms significantly influence flow resistance. The arrangement of particles lining the bottom of the stream bed or experimental channel generates waveforms of different sizes that lead to changes in roughness and consequently spatial variability in the turbulent characteristics of the flow. The study which is focused on the laws of friction in alluvial beds, aims to analyze the characteristics of flows and materials constituting the natural channels. Experimental results were obtained by simulating these flows on a rough bottom in an experimental channel at the Hydraulics Laboratory of the University of Batna 2. The system of equations governing the problem is solved using the program named: CLIPPER.5 and ACP.

Keywords: free surface flow, heterogeneous sand, moving bottom bed, friction coefficient, bottom roughness

Procedia PDF Downloads 82
137 Tolerance of Some Warm Season Turfgrasses to Compaction under Shade and Sunlight Conditions of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Authors: Mohammed A. Al-Yafrsi, Fahed A. Al-Mana

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A study was conducted to evaluate the compaction-tolerance ability of some warm season turfgrasses under shade and sunlight conditions in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Hybrid bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon): 'Tifway' and 'Tifsport', seashore paspalum (Paspalum vaginatum) and its cultivar 'Sea Isle 2000' were used. The study area was divided into two sections where one was exposed to sunlight and the other one was maintained under shade using green plastic grille (shade 70%). Turfgrasses were planted by sods in beds containing a mixture of sand, silt, and peat moss (4: 1: 1, v/v). The soil compaction was applied using a locally-made cylindrical roll (weighing 250 kg), passing four times over the growing turfgrasses for 3 days/week. The results revealed that compaction treatment led to a decrease in grass height, and it was the lowest (4.0 cm) for paspalum 'Sea Isle 2000' in February. At the shaded area, paspalum turfgrasses retained its high quality degree (4.0) in April, May, and June. In the sunlight area, the grass quality degree was the greatest (4.0) in 'Sea Isle 2000' and the lowest (3.0) in 'Tifsport'. Paspalum turfgrasses gave higher color degree (4) than bermuda grasses (2.5) in April, May, and June. The compaction also led to a decline in leaf area, fresh and dry weights of all grown turfgrasses. The grass density was high for paspalum turfgrasses indicating that their resistance to compaction was greater than bermudagrasses. It can be concluded that the best compaction and shade tolerant turfgrasses are 'Sea Isle 2000' and seashore paspalum.

Keywords: hybrid bermudagrass, seashore paspalum, soil compaction, shade area, sunlight condition

Procedia PDF Downloads 115
136 Simulation and Experimental Study on Dual Dense Medium Fluidization Features of Air Dense Medium Fluidized Bed

Authors: Cheng Sheng, Yuemin Zhao, Chenlong Duan

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Air dense medium fluidized bed is a typical application of fluidization techniques for coal particle separation in arid areas, where it is costly to implement wet coal preparation technologies. In the last three decades, air dense medium fluidized bed, as an efficient dry coal separation technique, has been studied in many aspects, including energy and mass transfer, hydrodynamics, bubbling behaviors, etc. Despite numerous researches have been published, the fluidization features, especially dual dense medium fluidization features have been rarely reported. In dual dense medium fluidized beds, different combinations of different dense mediums play a significant role in fluidization quality variation, thus influencing coal separation efficiency. Moreover, to what extent different dense mediums mix and to what extent the two-component particulate mixture affects the fluidization performance and quality have been in suspense. The proposed work attempts to reveal underlying mechanisms of generation and evolution of two-component particulate mixture in the fluidization process. Based on computational fluid dynamics methods and discrete particle modelling, movement and evolution of dual dense mediums in air dense medium fluidized bed have been simulated. Dual dense medium fluidization experiments have been conducted. Electrical capacitance tomography was employed to investigate the distribution of two-component mixture in experiments. Underlying mechanisms involving two-component particulate fluidization are projected to be demonstrated with the analysis and comparison of simulation and experimental results.

Keywords: air dense medium fluidized bed, particle separation, computational fluid dynamics, discrete particle modelling

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135 Examination of Public Hospital Unions Technical Efficiencies Using Data Envelopment Analysis and Machine Learning Techniques

Authors: Songul Cinaroglu

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Regional planning in health has gained speed for developing countries in recent years. In Turkey, 89 different Public Hospital Unions (PHUs) were conducted based on provincial levels. In this study technical efficiencies of 89 PHUs were examined by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and machine learning techniques by dividing them into two clusters in terms of similarities of input and output indicators. Number of beds, physicians and nurses determined as input variables and number of outpatients, inpatients and surgical operations determined as output indicators. Before performing DEA, PHUs were grouped into two clusters. It is seen that the first cluster represents PHUs which have higher population, demand and service density than the others. The difference between clusters was statistically significant in terms of all study variables (p ˂ 0.001). After clustering, DEA was performed for general and for two clusters separately. It was found that 11% of PHUs were efficient in general, additionally 21% and 17% of them were efficient for the first and second clusters respectively. It is seen that PHUs, which are representing urban parts of the country and have higher population and service density, are more efficient than others. Random forest decision tree graph shows that number of inpatients is a determinative factor of efficiency of PHUs, which is a measure of service density. It is advisable for public health policy makers to use statistical learning methods in resource planning decisions to improve efficiency in health care.

Keywords: public hospital unions, efficiency, data envelopment analysis, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
134 Green Technologies Developed by JSC “NIUIF”

Authors: Andrey Norov

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In the recent years, Samoilov Research Institute for Mineral Fertilizers JSC “NIUIF”, the oldest (established in September 1919) industry-oriented institute in Russia, has developed a range of sustainable, environment-friendly, zero-waste technologies that ensure minimal consumption of materials and energy resources and fully consistent with the principles of Green Chemistry that include: - Ecofriendly energy and resource saving technology of sulfuric acid from sulfur according to DC-DA scheme (double conversion - double absorption); - Improved zero-waste technology of wet phosphoric acid (WPA) by dihydrate-hemihydrate process applicable to various types of phosphate raw materials; - Flexible, efficient, zero-waste, universal technology of NP / NPS / NPK / NPKS fertilizers with maximum heat recovery from chemical processes; - Novel, zero-waste, no-analogue technology of granular PK / PKS / NPKS fertilizers with controlled dissolution rate and nutrient supply into the soil, which allows to process a number of wastes and by-products; - Innovative resource-saving joint processing of wastes from the production of phosphogypsum and fluorosilicic acid (FSA) into ammonium sulfate with simultaneous neutralization of fluoride compounds with no lime used. - New fertilizer technology of increased environmental and agrochemical efficiency (currently under development). All listed green technologies are patented with Russian and Eurasian patents. The development of ecofriendly, safe, green technologies is ongoing in JSC “NIUIF”.

Keywords: NPKS fertilizers, FSA, sulfuric acid, WPA

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133 Using Seismic Base Isolation Systems in High-Rise Hospital Buildings and a Hybrid Proposal

Authors: Elif Bakkaloglu, Necdet Torunbalci

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The fact of earthquakes in Turkiye is an inevitable natural disaster. Therefore, buildings must be prepared for this natural hazard. Especially in hospital buildings, earthquake resistance is an essential point because hospitals are one of the first places where people come after an earthquake. Although hospital buildings are more suitable for horizontal architecture, it is necessary to construct and expand multi-storey hospital buildings due to difficulties in finding suitable places as a result of excessive urbanization, difficulties in obtaining appropriate size land and decrease in suitable places and increase in land values. In Turkiye, using seismic isolators in public hospitals, which are placed in first-degree earthquake zone and have more than 100 beds, is made obligatory by general instruction. As a result of this decision, it may sometimes be necessary to construct seismic isolated multi-storey hospital buildings in cities where those problems are experienced. Although widespread use of seismic isolators in Japan, there are few multi-storey buildings in which seismic isolators are used in Turkiye. As it is known, base isolation systems are the most effective methods of earthquake resistance, as number of floors increases, center of gravity moves away from base in multi-storey buildings, increasing the overturning effect and limiting the use of these systems. In this context, it is aimed to investigate structural systems of multi-storey buildings which built using seismic isolation methods in the World. In addition to this, a working principle is suggested for disseminating seismic isolators in multi-storey hospital buildings. The results to be obtained from the study will guide architects who design multi-storey hospital buildings in their architectural designs and engineers in terms of structural system design.

Keywords: earthquake, energy absorbing systems, hospital, seismic isolation systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 140
132 An Approach to Correlate the Statistical-Based Lorenz Method, as a Way of Measuring Heterogeneity, with Kozeny-Carman Equation

Authors: H. Khanfari, M. Johari Fard

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Dealing with carbonate reservoirs can be mind-boggling for the reservoir engineers due to various digenetic processes that cause a variety of properties through the reservoir. A good estimation of the reservoir heterogeneity which is defined as the quality of variation in rock properties with location in a reservoir or formation, can better help modeling the reservoir and thus can offer better understanding of the behavior of that reservoir. Most of reservoirs are heterogeneous formations whose mineralogy, organic content, natural fractures, and other properties vary from place to place. Over years, reservoir engineers have tried to establish methods to describe the heterogeneity, because heterogeneity is important in modeling the reservoir flow and in well testing. Geological methods are used to describe the variations in the rock properties because of the similarities of environments in which different beds have deposited in. To illustrate the heterogeneity of a reservoir vertically, two methods are generally used in petroleum work: Dykstra-Parsons permeability variations (V) and Lorenz coefficient (L) that are reviewed briefly in this paper. The concept of Lorenz is based on statistics and has been used in petroleum from that point of view. In this paper, we correlated the statistical-based Lorenz method to a petroleum concept, i.e. Kozeny-Carman equation and derived the straight line plot of Lorenz graph for a homogeneous system. Finally, we applied the two methods on a heterogeneous field in South Iran and discussed each, separately, with numbers and figures. As expected, these methods show great departure from homogeneity. Therefore, for future investment, the reservoir needs to be treated carefully.

Keywords: carbonate reservoirs, heterogeneity, homogeneous system, Dykstra-Parsons permeability variations (V), Lorenz coefficient (L)

Procedia PDF Downloads 214
131 Performance the SOFA and APACHEII Scoring System to Predicate the Mortality of the ICU Cases

Authors: Yu-Chuan Huang

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Introduction: There is a higher mortality rate for unplanned transfer to intensive care units. It also needs a longer length of stay and makes the intensive care unit beds cannot be effectively used. It affects the immediate medical treatment of critically ill patients, resulting in a drop in the quality of medical care. Purpose: The purpose of this study was using SOFA and APACHEII score to analyze the mortality rate of the cases transferred from ED to ICU. According to the score that should be provide an appropriate care as early as possible. Methods: This study was a descriptive experimental design. The sample size was estimated at 220 to reach a power of 0.8 for detecting a medium effect size of 0.30, with a 0.05 significance level, using G-power. Considering an estimated follow-up loss, the required sample size was estimated as 242 participants. Data were calculated by medical system of SOFA and APACHEII score that cases transferred from ED to ICU in 2016. Results: There were 233 participants meet the study. The medical records showed 33 participants’ mortality. Age and sex with QSOFA , SOFA and sex with APACHEII showed p>0.05. Age with APCHHII in ED and ICU showed r=0.150, 0,268 (p < 0.001**). The score with mortality risk showed: ED QSOFA is r=0.235 (p < 0.001**), exp(B)=1.685(p = 0.007); ICU SOFA 0.78 (p < 0.001**), exp(B)=1.205(p < 0.001). APACHII in ED and ICU showed r= 0.253, 0.286 (p < 0.001**), exp(B) = 1.041,1.073(p = 0.017,0.001). For SOFA, a cutoff score of above 15 points was identified as a predictor of the 95% mortality risk. Conclusions: The SOFA and APACHE II were calculated based on initial laboratory data in the Emergency Department, and during the first 24 hours of ICU admission. In conclusion, the SOFA and APACHII score is significantly associated with mortality and strongly predicting mortality. Early predictors of morbidity and mortality, which we can according the predicting score, and provide patients with a detail assessment and proper care, thereby reducing mortality and length of stay.

Keywords: SOFA, APACHEII, mortality, ICU

Procedia PDF Downloads 143
130 Case Study; Drilled Shafts Installation in Difficult Site Conditions; Loose Sand and High Water Table

Authors: Anthony El Hachem, Hosam Salman

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Selecting the most effective construction method for drilled shafts under the high phreatic surface can be a challenging task that requires effective communication between the design and construction teams. Slurry placement, temporary casing, and permanent casing are the three most commonly used installation techniques to ensure the stability of the drilled hole before casting the concrete. Each one of these methods has its implications on the installation and performance of the drilled piers. Drilled shafts were designed to support a fire wall for an Energy project in Central Texas. The subsurface consisted of interlayers of sands and clays of varying shear strengths. The design recommended that the shafts be installed with temporary casing or slurry displacement due to the anticipated groundwater seepage through granular soils. During the foundation construction, it was very difficult to maintain the stability of the hole, and the contractor requested to install the shafts using permanent casings. Therefore, the foundation design was modified to ensure that the cased shafts achieve the required load capacity. Effective and continuous communications between the owner, contractor and design team during field shaft installations to mitigate the unforeseen challenges helped the team to successfully complete the project.

Keywords: construction challenges, deep foundations, drilled shafts, loose sands underwater table, permanent casing

Procedia PDF Downloads 186
129 Palliative Performance Scale Differences between Patients Referred by Specialized Cancer Center and General Hospitals to the Palliative Care Center in Kuwait

Authors: Khalid Al Saleh, Najlaa AlSayed

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Background: Palliative care is changing from just ‘end of life care’ to care delivered earlier in the disease course. Metanalysis showed that Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) is associated with increased length of survival. The Palliative Care Center (PCC) in Kuwait is the only stand-alone center in Eastern Mediterranean Region with a capacity of 92 beds. We compared clinical characteristics between patients referred from the Specialized Cancer Center and general hospitals in Kuwait to PCC. Method: A cross Sectional survey was conducted since the opening of PCC in January 2011 to June 2013. Patients’ data on demographics, type of the cancer, PPS score and referring hospital were collected and analyzed. Results: Total number of the patients was 142. Mean age was 61.05±14.79 years, 66 patients (47.1%) were males and 74 (52.9%) were females. The most common cancers in males were lung (n=18, 27.3%) followed by head and neck cancers (n=8, 12.1%) and brain tumors (n=7, 10.6%) while in females, the most common cancers were breast cancer (n=12, 16.7%) followed by ovarian cancer (n=10, 13.9%) and Cancer Colon (n=8, 11.1%). Patients with PPS score 30% were 27.9% (n=39), 40% in 40.7% (n=57), and 50% in 17.1% (n=24) respectively. Patients referred from the Specialized Cancer Center had significantly higher portion of patients with PPS score > 30% (73.4%, n=94), compared to patients coming from general hospitals (33.3%, n=4), P value= 0.007. Conclusion: There is significant difference in PPS scores between patients referred from the Specialized Cancer Center compared to patients referred from general hospitals. We encourage that all cancer patients should be treated in Specialized Cancer Centers and earlier involvement of Palliative Care Centers to achieve better survival. Training workshops are needed for health care professionals working in general hospitals to raise awareness about earlier referral of patients to palliative care services.

Keywords: palliative care, kuwait, performance scale differences, pps score, specialized hospitals

Procedia PDF Downloads 298
128 Effect of Segregation on the Reaction Rate of Sewage Sludge Pyrolysis in a Bubbling Fluidized Bed

Authors: A. Soria-Verdugo, A. Morato-Godino, L. M. García-Gutiérrez, N. García-Hernando

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The evolution of the pyrolysis of sewage sludge in a fixed and a fluidized bed was analyzed using a novel measuring technique. This original measuring technique consists of installing the whole reactor over a precision scale, capable of measuring the mass of the complete reactor with enough precision to detect the mass released by the sewage sludge sample during its pyrolysis. The inert conditions required for the pyrolysis process were obtained supplying the bed with a nitrogen flowrate, and the bed temperature was adjusted to either 500 ºC or 600 ºC using a group of three electric resistors. The sewage sludge sample was supplied through the top of the bed in a batch of 10 g. The measurement of the mass released by the sewage sludge sample was employed to determine the evolution of the reaction rate during the pyrolysis, the total amount of volatile matter released, and the pyrolysis time. The pyrolysis tests of sewage sludge in the fluidized bed were conducted using two different bed materials of the same size but different densities: silica sand and sepiolite particles. The higher density of silica sand particles induces a flotsam behavior for the sewage sludge particles which move close to the bed surface. In contrast, the lower density of sepiolite produces a neutrally-buoyant behavior for the sewage sludge particles, which shows a proper circulation throughout the whole bed in this case. The analysis of the evolution of the pyrolysis process in both fluidized beds show that the pyrolysis is faster when buoyancy effects are negligible, i.e. in the bed conformed by sepiolite particles. Moreover, sepiolite was found to show an absorbent capability for the volatile matter released during the pyrolysis of sewage sludge.

Keywords: bubbling fluidized bed, pyrolysis, reaction rate, segregation effects, sewage sludge

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127 Comparison of Regime Transition between Ellipsoidal and Spherical Particle Assemblies in a Model Shear Cell

Authors: M. Hossain, H. P. Zhu, A. B. Yu

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This paper presents a numerical investigation of regime transition of flow of ellipsoidal particles and a comparison with that of spherical particle assembly. Particle assemblies constituting spherical and ellipsoidal particle of 2.5:1 aspect ratio are examined at separate instances in similar flow conditions in a shear cell model that is numerically developed based on the discrete element method. Correlations among elastically scaled stress, kinetically scaled stress, coordination number and volume fraction are investigated, and show important similarities and differences for the spherical and ellipsoidal particle assemblies. In particular, volume fractions at points of regime transition are identified for both types of particles. It is found that compared with spherical particle assembly, ellipsoidal particle assembly has higher volume fraction for the quasistatic to intermediate regime transition and lower volume fraction for the intermediate to inertial regime transition. Finally, the relationship between coordination number and volume fraction shows strikingly distinct features for the two cases, suggesting that different from spherical particles, the effect of the shear rate on the coordination number is not significant for ellipsoidal particles. This work provides a glimpse of currently running work on one of the most attractive scopes of research in this field and has a wide prospect in understanding rheology of more complex shaped particles in light of the strong basis of simpler spherical particle rheology.

Keywords: DEM, granular rheology, non-spherical particles, regime transition

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126 Effects of Clinical Practice Guidelines for Central Venous Catheter to Infection Rate and Nurse’s Satisfaction in Medicine Intensive Care Unit 240 Hat Yai Hospital, Thailand

Authors: Jiranun Sreecharit, Anongnat Boonrut, Kunvadee Munvaradee, Phechnoy Singchungchai

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Hatyai Hospital as center of hospital with a capacity of 670 beds. Medicine intensive care units (MICU240) provide care for critically ill patients who are at high risk need to be monitored closely. Intravenous catheter is vital to help assess the level of water in the body fluids and medications. Potential complications such as infection. We need to have guidelines for the care of patients who received intravenous catheter used to achieve good results. The operations research in this study was intended 1) To study the effects of practice for nurses in caring for patients with central venous catheter to infection rate and 2) To assess the satisfaction of nurses and patient care practices in central venous catheterization patients in the MICU 240. The sample of the patient's central venous catheter crisis that everyone who admitted in MICU 240 during the period from October 2013 to May 2014. Samples prior to practice and 148 samples with 249 case of practice. A systematic review of the research NSWHealth Statewide Guideline for Intensive Care. Data were analyzed by statistics, percentages and frequency NON-PARAMETRICS with Mann-Whitney U. The finding revealed that: 1. Results of the practice patient care central venous catheter infection rates were found to be reduced from 35.14 percent to 25.3 percent. 2. The results of the evaluation of nurses and patients in the patient care practices central venous catheter found to be satisfied and happy to work 85 percent.

Keywords: clinical practice guidelines, central venous catheter, infection satisfaction

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125 From Core to Hydrocarbon: Reservoir Sedimentology, Facies Analysis and Depositional Model of Early Oligocene Mahuva Formation in Tapti Daman Block, Western Offshore Basin, India

Authors: Almas Rajguru

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The Oligocene succession of the Tapti- Daman area is one of the established petroleum plays in Tapti-Daman block of the Mumbai Offshore Basin. Despite good control and production history, the sand geometry and continuity of reservoir character of these sediments are less understood as most reservoirs are thin and fall below seismic resolution. The present work focuses on a detailed analysis of the Early Oligocene Mahuva Formation at the reservoir scale through laboratory studies (sedimentology and biostratigraphy) of core and sidewall cores in integration with electro logs for firming up facies’ distribution, micro-depositional environment and sequence stratigraphy, diagenesis and reservoir characterization from seventeen wells from North Tapti-C-37 area in Tapti Daman Block, WOB. The thick shale/claystone with thin interbeds of sandstone and siltstones of deeper marine in the lower part of Mahuva Fm represents deposition in a transgressive regime. The overlying interbedded sandstone, glauconitic-siltstone/fine-grained sandstone, and thin beds of packstone/grainstone within highly fissile shale were deposited in a prograding tide-dominated delta during late-rise normal regression. Nine litho facies (F1-F9) representing deposition in various microenvironments of the tide-dominated delta are identified based on their characteristic sediment texture, structure and microfacies. Massive, gritty sandstone (F1) with poorly sorted sands lithic fragments with calcareous and Fe-rich matrix represents channel fill sediments. High-angle cross-stratified sandstone (F2) deposited in rapidly shifting/migrating bars under strong tidal currents. F3 records the laterally accreted tidal-channel point bars. F3 (low-angle cross-stratified to parallel bedded sandstone) and F4 (Clean sandstone) are often associated with F2 in a tidal bar complex. F5 (interbedded thin sand and mud) and F6 (bioturbated sandstone) represent tidal flat deposits. High energy open marine carbonate shoals (F8) and fossiliferous sandstone in offshore bars (F7) represent deepening up facies. Shallow marine standstill conditions facilitated the deposition of thick shale (F9) beds. The reservoir facies (F1-F6) are commonly poorly to moderately sorted; bimodal, immature sandstone represented by quartz-wacke. The framework grains are sub-angular to sub-rounded, medium to coarse-grained (occasionally gritty) embedded within argillaceous (kaolinite/chlorite/chamosite) to highly Fe-rich matrix (sideritic). The facies F7 and F8, representing the sandy packstone and grainstone facies, respectively, exhibit poor reservoir characteristics due to sanitization, diagenetic compaction and matrix-filled intergranular spaces. The various diagenetic features such as the presence of authigenic clays (kaolinite/dickite/smectite); ferruginous minerals like siderite, pyrite, hematite and other iron oxides; bioturbations; glauconite; calcite and quartz cementation, precipitation of gypsum, pressure solution and other compaction effects are identified. These diagenetic features, wherever present, have reduced porosity and permeability thereby adversely affecting reservoir quality. Tidal bar sandstones possess good reservoir characteristics such as moderate to good sorting, fair to good porosity and geometry that facilitates efficient lateral extension and vertical thickness of reservoir. The sand bodies of F2, F3 and F4 facies of Well L, M and Q deposited in a tidal bar complex exhibit good reservoir quality represented by relatively cleaner, poorly burrowed, loose, friable sandstone with good porosity. Sandstone facies around these wells could prove a potential hydrocarbon reservoir and could be considered for further exploration.

Keywords: reservoir sedimentology, facies analysis, HST, tide dominated delta, tidal bars

Procedia PDF Downloads 83
124 Modeling Depth Averaged Velocity and Boundary Shear Stress Distributions

Authors: Ebissa Gadissa Kedir, C. S. P. Ojha, K. S. Hari Prasad

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In the present study, the depth-averaged velocity and boundary shear stress in non-prismatic compound channels with three different converging floodplain angles ranging from 1.43ᶱ to 7.59ᶱ have been studied. The analytical solutions were derived by considering acting forces on the channel beds and walls. In the present study, five key parameters, i.e., non-dimensional coefficient, secondary flow term, secondary flow coefficient, friction factor, and dimensionless eddy viscosity, were considered and discussed. An expression for non-dimensional coefficient and integration constants was derived based on the boundary conditions. The model was applied to different data sets of the present experiments and experiments from other sources, respectively, to examine and analyse the influence of floodplain converging angles on depth-averaged velocity and boundary shear stress distributions. The results show that the non-dimensional parameter plays important in portraying the variation of depth-averaged velocity and boundary shear stress distributions with different floodplain converging angles. Thus, the variation of the non-dimensional coefficient needs attention since it affects the secondary flow term and secondary flow coefficient in both the main channel and floodplains. The analysis shows that the depth-averaged velocities are sensitive to a shear stress-dependent model parameter non-dimensional coefficient, and the analytical solutions are well agreed with experimental data when five parameters are included. It is inferred that the developed model may facilitate the interest of others in complex flow modeling.

Keywords: depth-average velocity, converging floodplain angles, non-dimensional coefficient, non-prismatic compound channels

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123 Strength of Soft Clay Reinforced with Polypropylene Column

Authors: Muzamir Hasan, Anas Bazirgan

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Granular columns is a technique that has the properties of improving bearing capacity, accelerating the dissipation of excess pore water pressure and reducing settlement in a weak soft soil. This research aims to investigate the role of Polypropylene column in improving the shear strength and compressibility of soft reconstituted kaolin clay by determining the effects of area replacement ratio, height penetrating ratio and volume replacement ratio of a singular Polypropylene column on the strength characteristics. Reinforced kaolin samples were subjected to Unconfined Compression (UCT) and Unconsolidated Undrained (UU) triaxial tests. The kaolin samples were 50 mm in diameter and 100 mm in height. Using the PP column reinforcement, with an area replacement ratio of 0.8, 0.5 and 0.3, shear strength increased approximately 5.27%, 26.22% and 64.28%, and 37.14%, 42.33% and 51.17%, for area replacement ratios of 25% and 10.24%. Meanwhile, UU testing showed an increase in shear strength of 24.01%, 23.17% and 23.49% and 28.79%, 27.29 and 30.81% for the same ratios. Based on the UCT results, the undrained shear strength generally increased with the decrease in height penetration ratio. However, based on the UU test results Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria, the installation of Polypropylene columns did not show any significant difference in effective friction angle. However, there was an increase in the apparent cohesion and undrained shear strength of the kaolin clay. In conclusion, Polypropylene column greatly improved the shear strength; and could therefore be implemented in reducing the cost of soil improvement as a replacement for non-renewable materials.

Keywords: polypropylene, UCT, UU test, Kaolin S300, ground improvement

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122 Morphological, Mechanical, and Tribological Properties Investigations of CMTed Parts of Al-5356 Alloy

Authors: Antar Bouhank, Youcef Beellal, Samir Adjel, Abdelmadjid Ababsa

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This paper investigates the impact of 3D printing parameters using the cold metal transfer (CMT) technique on the morphological, mechanical, and tribological properties of walls and massive parts made from aluminum alloy. The parameters studied include current intensity, torch movement speed, printing increment, and the flow rate of shielding gas. The manufactured parts, using the technique mentioned above, are walls and massive parts with different filling strategies, using grid and zigzag patterns and at different current intensities. The main goal of the article is to find out the welding parameters suitable for having parts with low defects and improved properties from the previously mentioned properties point of view. It has been observed from the results thus obtained that the high current intensity causes rapid solidification, resulting in high porosity and low hardness values. However, the high current intensity can cause very rapid solidification, which increases the melting point, and the part remains in the most stable shape. Furthermore, the results show that there is an evident relationship between hardness, coefficient of friction and wear test where the high intensity is, the low hardness is. The same note is for the coefficient of friction. The micrography of the walls shows a random granular structure with fine grain boundaries with a different grain size. Some interesting results are presented in this paper.

Keywords: aluminum alloy, porosity, microstructures, hardness

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121 Development of an Aerosol Protection Capsule for Patients with COVID-19

Authors: Isomar Lima da Silva, Aristeu Jonatas Leite de Oliveira, Roberto Maia Augusto

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Biological isolation capsules are equipment commonly used in the control and prevention of infectious diseases in the hospital environment. This type of equipment, combined with pre-established medical protocols, contributes significantly to the containment of highly transmissible pathogens such as COVID-19. Due to its hermetic isolation, it allows more excellent patient safety, protecting companions and the health team. In this context, this work presents the development, testing, and validation of a medical capsule to treat patients affected by COVID-19. To this end, requirements such as low cost and easy handling were considered to meet the demand of people infected with the virus in remote locations in the Amazon region and/or where there are no ICU beds and mechanical ventilators for orotracheal intubation. Conceived and developed in a partnership between SAMEL Planos de Saúde and Instituto Conecthus, the device entitled "Vanessa Capsule" was designed to be used together with the NIV protocol (non-invasive ventilation), has an automatic exhaust system and filters performing the CO2 exchange, in addition to having BiPaps ventilatory support equipment (mechanical fans) in the Cabin Kit. The results show that the degree of effectiveness in protecting against infection by aerosols, with the protection cabin, is satisfactory, implying the consideration of the Vanessa capsule as an auxiliary method to be evaluated by the health team. It should also be noted that the medical observation of the evaluated patients found that the treatment against the COVID-19 virus started earlier with non-invasive mechanical ventilation reduces the patient's suffering and contributes positively to their recovery, in association with isolation through the Vanessa capsule.

Keywords: COVID-19, mechanical ventilators, medical capsule, non-invasive ventilation

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120 A Study on the Reinforced Earth Walls Using Sandwich Backfills under Seismic Loads

Authors: Kavitha A.S., L.Govindaraju

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Reinforced earth walls offer excellent solution to many problems associated with earth retaining structures especially under seismic conditions. Use of cohesive soils as backfill material reduces the cost of reinforced soil walls if proper drainage measures are taken. This paper presents a numerical study on the application of a new technique called sandwich technique in reinforced earth walls. In this technique, a thin layer of granular soil is placed above and below the reinforcement layer to initiate interface friction and the remaining portion of the backfill is filled up using the existing insitu cohesive soil. A 6 m high reinforced earth wall has been analysed as a two-dimensional plane strain finite element model. Three types of reinforcing elements such as geotextile, geogrid and metallic strips were used. The horizontal wall displacements and the tensile loads in the reinforcement were used as the criteria to evaluate the results at the end of construction and dynamic excitation phases. Also to verify the effectiveness of sandwich layer on the performance of the wall, the thickness of sand fill surrounding the reinforcement was varied. At the end of construction stage it is found that the wall with sandwich type backfill yielded lower displacements when compared to the wall with cohesive soil as backfill. Also with sandwich backfill, the reinforcement loads reduced substantially when compared to the wall with cohesive soil as backfill. Further, it is found that sandwich technique as backfill and geogrid as reinforcement is a good combination to reduce the deformations of geosynthetic reinforced walls during seismic loading.

Keywords: geogrid, geotextile, reinforced earth, sandwich technique

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119 Psychiatric Risk Assessment in the Emergency Department: The Impact of NEAT on the Management of Mental Health Patients

Authors: Euan Donley

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Emergency Departments (EDs) are heavily burdened as presentation rates continue to rise. To improve patient flow National Emergency Access Targets (NEAT) were introduced. NEAT implements timelines for ED presentations, such as discharging patients within four hours of arrival. Mental health patients use EDs more than the general population and are generally more complex in their presentations. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of NEAT on psychiatric risk assessment of mental health patients in the ED. Seventy-eight mental health clinicians from 7 Victoria, Australia, hospital EDs participated in a mixed method analysis via anonymous online survey. NEAT was considered helpful as mental health patients were seen quicker, were less likely to abscond, could improve teamwork amongst ED staff, and in some cases administrative processes were better streamlined. However, clinicians felt that NEAT was also responsible for less time with patients and relatives’, resulted in rushed assessments, placed undue pressure on mental health clinicians, was not conducive to training, and the emphasis on time was the wrong focus for patient treatment. The profile of a patient typically likely to be treated within NEAT timelines showed a perfect storm of luck and compliance. If a patient was sober, medically stable, referred early, did not require much collateral information and did not have distressed relatives, NEAT was more likely to be met. Organisationally participants reported no organisational change or training to meet NEAT. Poor mental health staffing, multiple ED presentations and a shortage of mental health beds also hamper meeting NEAT. Findings suggest participants were supportive of NEAT in principle, but a demanding workload and organisational barriers meant NEAT had an overall negative effect on psychiatric risk assessment of mental health patients in ED.

Keywords: assessment, emergency, risk, psychiatric

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118 Simulation and Synoptic Investigation of a Severe Dust Storm in Urmia Lake in the Middle East

Authors: Nasim Hossein Hamzeh, Karim Shukurov, Abbas Ranjbar Saadat Abadi, Alaa Mhawish, Christian Opp

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Deserts are the main dust sources in the world. Also, recently driedLake beds have caused environmental problems inthe surrounding areas in the world. In this study, the Urmia Lake was the source of dustfromApril 24 to April 25, 2017.The local dust storm was combined with another large-scale dust storm that originated from Saudi Arabia and Iraq 1-2 days earlier. Synoptic investigation revealed that the severe dust storm was made by a strong Black Sea cyclone and a low-pressure system over the Middle East and Central Iraq in conjunction a high-pressure system and associated with a high gradient contour and a quasi-stationary long-wave trough over the east and south of the Mediterranean Sea. Based on HYSPLIT 72 hours backward and forward trajectories, the most probable dust transport routes to and from the Urmia Lake region are estimated. Using the concentration weighted trajectory (CWT) method based on 24 hours backward and 24 hours forward trajectories, the spatial distributions of potential sources of PM10 observed in the Urmia Lake region on April 23-26, 2017. Also, the vertical profile of dust particles using the WRF-Chem model with two dust schemes showed dust ascending up to 5 km from the lake. Also, the dust schemes outputs shows that the PM10 fluctuating changes are 12 hours earlier than the measured surface PM10 at five air pollution monitoring stations around the Urmia Lake in 23-26 April 2017.

Keywords: dust storm, synoptic investigation, WRF-chem model, urmia lake, lagrangian trajectory

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117 Load Carrying Capacity of Soils Reinforced with Encased Stone Columns

Authors: S. Chandrakaran, G. Govind

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Stone columns are effectively used to improve bearing strength of soils and also for many geotechnical applications. In soft soils when stone columns are loaded they undergo large settlements due to insufficient lateral confinement. Use of geosynthetics encasement has proved to be a solution for this problem. In this paper, results of a laboratory experimental study carried out with model stone columns with and without encasement. Sand was used for making test beds, and grain size of soil varies from 0.075mm to 4.75mm. Woven geotextiles produced by Gareware ropes India with mass per unit area of 240gm/M2 and having tensile strength of 52KN/m is used for the present investigation. Tests were performed with large scale direct shear box and also using scaled laboratory plate load tests. Stone column of 50mm and 75mm is used for the present investigation. Diameter of stone column, size of stones used for making stone columns is varied in making stone column in the present study. Two types of stone were used namely small and bigger in size. Results indicate that there is an increase in angle of internal friction and also an increase in the shear strength of soil when stone columns are encased. With stone columns with 50mm dia, an average increase of 7% in shear strength and 4.6 % in angle of internal friction was achieved. When large stones were used increase in the shear strength was 12.2%, and angle of internal friction was increased to 5.4%. When the stone column diameter has increased to 75mm increase in shear strength and angle of internal friction was increased with smaller size of stones to 7.9 and 7.5%, and with large size stones, it was 7.7 and 5.48% respectively. Similar results are obtained in plate load tests, also.

Keywords: stone columns, encasement, shear strength, plate load test

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116 Comparison of Several Diagnostic Methods for Detecting Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus Infection in Cattle

Authors: Azizollah Khodakaram- Tafti, Ali Mohammadi, Ghasem Farjanikish

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Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is one of the most important viral pathogens of cattle worldwide caused by Pestivirus genus, Flaviviridae family.The aim of the present study was to comparison several diagnostic methods and determine the prevalence of BVDV infection for the first time in dairy herds of Fars province, Iran. For initial screening, a total of 400 blood samples were randomly collected from 12 industrial dairy herds and analyzed using reverse transcription (RT)-PCR on the buffy coat. In the second step, blood samples and also ear notch biopsies were collected from 100 cattle of infected farms and tested by antigen capture ELISA (ACE), RT-PCR and immunohistochemistry (IHC). The results of nested RT-PCR (outer primers 0I100/1400R and inner primers BD1/BD2) was successful in 16 out of 400 buffy coat samples (4%) as acute infection in initial screening. Also, 8 out of 100 samples (2%) were positive as persistent infection (PI) by all of the diagnostic tests similarly including RT-PCR, ACE and IHC on buffy coat, serum and skin samples, respectively. Immunoreactivity for bovine BVDV antigen as brown, coarsely to finely granular was observed within the cytoplasm of epithelial cells of epidermis and hair follicles and also subcutaneous stromal cells. These findings confirm the importance of monitoring BVDV infection in cattle of this region and suggest detection and elimination of PI calves for controlling and eradication of this disease.

Keywords: antigen capture ELISA, bovine viral diarrhea virus, immunohistochemistry, RT-PCR, cattle

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115 The Impact Of Sedimentary Heterogeneity On Oil Recovery In Basin-plain Turbidite: An Outcrop Analogue Simulation Case Study

Authors: Bayonle Abiola Omoniyi

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In turbidite reservoirs with volumetrically significant thin-bedded turbidites (TBTs), thin-pay intervals may be underestimated during calculation of reserve volume due to poor vertical resolution of conventional well logs. This paper demonstrates the strong control of bed-scale sedimentary heterogeneity on oil recovery using six facies distribution scenarios that were generated from outcrop data from the Eocene Itzurun Formation, Basque Basin (northern Spain). The variable net sand volume in these scenarios serves as a primary source of sedimentary heterogeneity impacting sandstone-mudstone ratio, sand and shale geometry and dimensions, lateral and vertical variations in bed thickness, and attribute indices. The attributes provided input parameters for modeling the scenarios. The models are 20-m (65.6 ft) thick. Simulation of the scenarios reveals that oil production is markedly enhanced where degree of sedimentary heterogeneity and resultant permeability contrast are low, as exemplified by Scenarios 1, 2, and 3. In these scenarios, bed architecture encourages better apparent vertical connectivity across intervals of laterally continuous beds. By contrast, low net-to-gross Scenarios 4, 5, and 6, have rapidly declining oil production rates and higher water cut with more oil effectively trapped in low-permeability layers. These scenarios may possess enough lateral connectivity to enable injected water to sweep oil to production well; such sweep is achieved at a cost of high-water production. It is therefore imperative to consider not only net-to-gross threshold but also facies stack pattern and related attribute indices to better understand how to effectively manage water production for optimum oil recovery from basin-plain reservoirs.

Keywords: architecture, connectivity, modeling, turbidites

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114 Hydrogeological Factors of the Ore Genesis in the Sedimentary Basins

Authors: O. Abramova, L. Abukova, A. Goreva, G. Isaeva

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The present work was made for the purpose of evaluating the interstitial water’s role in the mobilization of metal elements of clay deposits and occurrences in sedimentary formation in the hydro-geological basins. The experiments were performed by using a special facility, which allows adjusting the pressure, temperature, and the frequency of the acoustic vibrations. The dates for study were samples of the oil shales (Baltic career, O2kk) and clay rocks, mainly montmorillonite composition (Borehole SG-12000, the depth of selection 1000–3600 m, the Azov-Kuban trough, N1). After interstitial water squeezing from the rock samples, decrease in the original content of the rock forming components including trace metals V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Zr, Mo, Pb, W, Ti, and others was recorded. The experiments made it possible to evaluate the ore elements output and organic matters with the interstitial waters. Calculations have shown that, in standard conditions, from each ton of the oil shales, 5-6 kg of ore elements and 9-10 kg of organic matter can be escaped. A quantity of matter, migrating from clays in the process of solidification, is changed depending on the lithogenesis stage: more recent unrealized deposits lose more ore and organic materials than the clay rocks, selected from depth over 3000 m. Each ton of clays in the depth interval 1000-1500 m is able to generate 3-5 kg of the ore elements and 6-8 kg of the organic matters. The interstitial waters are a freight forwarder over transferring these matters in the reservoir beds. It was concluded that the interstitial waters which escaped from the study samples are solutions with abnormal high concentrations of the metals and organic matters. In the discharge zones of the sediment basins, such fluids can create paragenetic associations of the sedimentary-catagenetic ore and hydrocarbon mineral resources accumulations.

Keywords: hydrocarbons, ore genesis, paragenesis, pore water

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113 Objective-Based System Dynamics Modeling to Forecast the Number of Health Professionals in Pudong New Area of Shanghai

Authors: Jie Ji, Jing Xu, Yuehong Zhuang, Xiangqing Kang, Ying Qian, Ping Zhou, Di Xue

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Background: In 2014, there were 28,341 health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai and the number per 1000 population was 5.199, 55.55% higher than that in 2006. But it was always less than the average number of health professionals per 1000 population in Shanghai from 2006 to 2014. Therefore, allocation planning for the health professionals in Pudong new area has become a high priority task in order to meet the future demands of health care. In this study, we constructed an objective-based system dynamics model to forecast the number of health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai in 2020. Methods: We collected the data from health statistics reports and previous survey of human resources in Pudong new area of Shanghai. Nine experts, who were from health administrative departments, public hospitals and community health service centers, were consulted to estimate the current and future status of nine variables used in the system dynamics model. Based on the objective of the number of health professionals per 1000 population (8.0) in Shanghai for 2020, the system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed to forecast the number of health professionals needed in Pudong new area in 2020. Results: The system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed. The model forecasted that there will be 37,330 health professionals (6.433 per 1000 population) in 2020. If the success rate of health professional recruitment changed from 20% to 70%, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.919. If this rate changed from 20% to 70% and the success rate of building new beds changed from 5% to 30% at the same time, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.923. Conclusions: The system dynamics model could be used to simulate and forecast the health professionals. But, if there were no significant changes in health policies and management system, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would not reach the objectives in Pudong new area in 2020.

Keywords: allocation planning, forecast, health professional, system dynamics

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