Search results for: OSA calibration
238 Statistical Classification, Downscaling and Uncertainty Assessment for Global Climate Model Outputs
Authors: Queen Suraajini Rajendran, Sai Hung Cheung
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Statistical down scaling models are required to connect the global climate model outputs and the local weather variables for climate change impact prediction. For reliable climate change impact studies, the uncertainty associated with the model including natural variability, uncertainty in the climate model(s), down scaling model, model inadequacy and in the predicted results should be quantified appropriately. In this work, a new approach is developed by the authors for statistical classification, statistical down scaling and uncertainty assessment and is applied to Singapore rainfall. It is a robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis methodology and tools based on coupling dependent modeling error with classification and statistical down scaling models in a way that the dependency among modeling errors will impact the results of both classification and statistical down scaling model calibration and uncertainty analysis for future prediction. Singapore data are considered here and the uncertainty and prediction results are obtained. From the results obtained, directions of research for improvement are briefly presented.Keywords: statistical downscaling, global climate model, climate change, uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 368237 Simultaneous Determination of p-Phenylenediamine, N-Acetyl-p-phenylenediamine and N,N-Diacetyl-p-phenylenediamine in Human Urine by LC-MS/MS
Authors: Khaled M. Mohamed
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Background: P-Phenylenediamine (PPD) is used in the manufacture of hair dyes and skin decoration. In some developing countries, suicidal, homicidal and accidental cases by PPD were recorded. In this work, a sensitive LC-MS/MS method for determination of PPD and its metabolites N-acetyl-p-phenylenediamine (MAPPD) and N,N-diacetyl-p-phenylenediamine (DAPPD) in human urine has been developed and validated. Methods: PPD, MAPPD and DAPPD were extracted from urine by methylene chloride at alkaline pH. Acetanilide was used as internal standard (IS). The analytes and IS were separated on an Eclipse XDB- C18 column (150 X 4.6 mm, 5 µm) using a mobile phase of acetonitrile-1% formic acid in gradient elution. Detection was performed by LC-MS/MS using electrospray positive ionization under multiple reaction-monitoring mode. The transition ions m/z 109 → 92, m/z 151 → 92, m/z 193 → 92, and m/z 136 → 77 were selected for the quantification of PPD, MAPPD, DAPPD, and IS, respectively. Results: Calibration curves were linear in the range 10–2000 ng/mL for all analytes. The mean recoveries for PPD, MAPPD and DAPPD were 57.62, 74.19 and 50.99%, respectively. Intra-assay and inter-assay imprecisions were within 1.58–9.52% and 5.43–9.45% respectively for PPD, MAPPD and DAPPD. Inter-assay accuracies were within -7.43 and 7.36 for all compounds. PPD, MAPPD and DAPPD were stable in urine at –20 degrees for 24 hours. Conclusions: The method was successfully applied to the analysis of PPD, MAPPD and DAPPD in urine samples collected from suicidal cases.Keywords: p-Phenylenediamine, metabolites, urine, LC-MS/MS, validation
Procedia PDF Downloads 355236 Temperature Dependence of Relative Permittivity: A Measurement Technique Using Split Ring Resonators
Authors: Sreedevi P. Chakyar, Jolly Andrews, V. P. Joseph
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A compact method for measuring the relative permittivity of a dielectric material at different temperatures using a single circular Split Ring Resonator (SRR) metamaterial unit working as a test probe is presented in this paper. The dielectric constant of a material is dependent upon its temperature and the LC resonance of the SRR depends on its dielectric environment. Hence, the temperature of the dielectric material in contact with the resonator influences its resonant frequency. A single SRR placed between transmitting and receiving probes connected to a Vector Network Analyser (VNA) is used as a test probe. The dependence of temperature between 30 oC and 60 oC on resonant frequency of SRR is analysed. Relative permittivities ‘ε’ of test samples for different temperatures are extracted from a calibration graph drawn between the relative permittivity of samples of known dielectric constant and their corresponding resonant frequencies. This method is found to be an easy and efficient technique for analysing the temperature dependent permittivity of different materials.Keywords: metamaterials, negative permeability, permittivity measurement techniques, split ring resonators, temperature dependent dielectric constant
Procedia PDF Downloads 412235 Application of Flow Cytometry for Detection of Influence of Abiotic Stress on Plants
Authors: Dace Grauda, Inta Belogrudova, Alexei Katashev, Linda Lancere, Isaak Rashal
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The goal of study was the elaboration of easy applicable flow cytometry method for detection of influence of abiotic stress factors on plants, which could be useful for detection of environmental stresses in urban areas. The lime tree Tillia vulgaris H. is a popular tree species used for urban landscaping in Europe and is one of the main species of street greenery in Riga, Latvia. Tree decline and low vitality has observed in the central part of Riga. For this reason lime trees were select as a model object for the investigation. During the period of end of June and beginning of July 12 samples from different urban environment locations as well as plant material from a greenhouse were collected. BD FACSJazz® cell sorter (BD Biosciences, USA) with flow cytometer function was used to test viability of plant cells. The method was based on changes of relative fluorescence intensity of cells in blue laser (488 nm) after influence of stress factors. SpheroTM rainbow calibration particles (3.0–3.4 μm, BD Biosciences, USA) in phosphate buffered saline (PBS) were used for calibration of flow cytometer. BD PharmingenTM PBS (BD Biosciences, USA) was used for flow cytometry assays. The mean fluorescence intensity information from the purified cell suspension samples was recorded. Preliminary, multiple gate sizes and shapes were tested to find one with the lowest CV. It was found that low CV can be obtained if only the densest part of plant cells forward scatter/side scatter profile is analysed because in this case plant cells are most similar in size and shape. The young pollen cells in one nucleus stage were found as the best for detection of influence of abiotic stress. For experiments only fresh plant material was used– the buds of Tillia vulgaris with diameter 2 mm. For the cell suspension (in vitro culture) establishment modified protocol of microspore culture was applied. The cells were suspended in the MS (Murashige and Skoog) medium. For imitation of dust of urban area SiO2 nanoparticles with concentration 0.001 g/ml were dissolved in distilled water. Into 10 ml of cell suspension 1 ml of SiO2 nanoparticles suspension was added, then cells were incubated in speed shaking regime for 1 and 3 hours. As a stress factor the irradiation of cells for 20 min by UV was used (Hamamatsu light source L9566-02A, L10852 lamp, A10014-50-0110), maximum relative intensity (100%) at 365 nm and at ~310 nm (75%). Before UV irradiation the suspension of cells were placed onto a thin layer on a filter paper disk (diameter 45 mm) in a Petri dish with solid MS media. Cells without treatment were used as a control. Experiments were performed at room temperature (23-25 °C). Using flow cytometer BS FACS Software cells plot was created to determine the densest part, which was later gated using oval-shaped gate. Gate included from 95 to 99% of all cells. To determine relative fluorescence of cells logarithmic fluorescence scale in arbitrary fluorescence units were used. 3x103 gated cells were analysed from the each sample. The significant differences were found among relative fluorescence of cells from different trees after treatment with SiO2 nanoparticles and UV irradiation in comparison with the control.Keywords: flow cytometry, fluorescence, SiO2 nanoparticles, UV irradiation
Procedia PDF Downloads 412234 High Purity Germanium Detector Characterization by Means of Monte Carlo Simulation through Application of Geant4 Toolkit
Authors: Milos Travar, Jovana Nikolov, Andrej Vranicar, Natasa Todorovic
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Over the years, High Purity Germanium (HPGe) detectors proved to be an excellent practical tool and, as such, have established their today's wide use in low background γ-spectrometry. One of the advantages of gamma-ray spectrometry is its easy sample preparation as chemical processing and separation of the studied subject are not required. Thus, with a single measurement, one can simultaneously perform both qualitative and quantitative analysis. One of the most prominent features of HPGe detectors, besides their excellent efficiency, is their superior resolution. This feature virtually allows a researcher to perform a thorough analysis by discriminating photons of similar energies in the studied spectra where otherwise they would superimpose within a single-energy peak and, as such, could potentially scathe analysis and produce wrongly assessed results. Naturally, this feature is of great importance when the identification of radionuclides, as well as their activity concentrations, is being practiced where high precision comes as a necessity. In measurements of this nature, in order to be able to reproduce good and trustworthy results, one has to have initially performed an adequate full-energy peak (FEP) efficiency calibration of the used equipment. However, experimental determination of the response, i.e., efficiency curves for a given detector-sample configuration and its geometry, is not always easy and requires a certain set of reference calibration sources in order to account for and cover broader energy ranges of interest. With the goal of overcoming these difficulties, a lot of researches turned towards the application of different software toolkits that implement the Monte Carlo method (e.g., MCNP, FLUKA, PENELOPE, Geant4, etc.), as it has proven time and time again to be a very powerful tool. In the process of creating a reliable model, one has to have well-established and described specifications of the detector. Unfortunately, the documentation that manufacturers provide alongside the equipment is rarely sufficient enough for this purpose. Furthermore, certain parameters tend to evolve and change over time, especially with older equipment. Deterioration of these parameters consequently decreases the active volume of the crystal and can thus affect the efficiencies by a large margin if they are not properly taken into account. In this study, the optimisation method of two HPGe detectors through the implementation of the Geant4 toolkit developed by CERN is described, with the goal of further improving simulation accuracy in calculations of FEP efficiencies by investigating the influence of certain detector variables (e.g., crystal-to-window distance, dead layer thicknesses, inner crystal’s void dimensions, etc.). Detectors on which the optimisation procedures were carried out were a standard traditional co-axial extended range detector (XtRa HPGe, CANBERRA) and a broad energy range planar detector (BEGe, CANBERRA). Optimised models were verified through comparison with experimentally obtained data from measurements of a set of point-like radioactive sources. Acquired results of both detectors displayed good agreement with experimental data that falls under an average statistical uncertainty of ∼ 4.6% for XtRa and ∼ 1.8% for BEGe detector within the energy range of 59.4−1836.1 [keV] and 59.4−1212.9 [keV], respectively.Keywords: HPGe detector, γ spectrometry, efficiency, Geant4 simulation, Monte Carlo method
Procedia PDF Downloads 119233 Wind Wave Modeling Using MIKE 21 SW Spectral Model
Authors: Pouya Molana, Zeinab Alimohammadi
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Determining wind wave characteristics is essential for implementing projects related to Coastal and Marine engineering such as designing coastal and marine structures, estimating sediment transport rates and coastal erosion rates in order to predict significant wave height (H_s), this study applies the third generation spectral wave model, Mike 21 SW, along with CEM model. For SW model calibration and verification, two data sets of meteorology and wave spectroscopy are used. The model was exposed to time-varying wind power and the results showed that difference ratio mean, standard deviation of difference ratio and correlation coefficient in SW model for H_s parameter are 1.102, 0.279 and 0.983, respectively. Whereas, the difference ratio mean, standard deviation and correlation coefficient in The Choice Experiment Method (CEM) for the same parameter are 0.869, 1.317 and 0.8359, respectively. Comparing these expected results it is revealed that the Choice Experiment Method CEM has more errors in comparison to MIKE 21 SW third generation spectral wave model and higher correlation coefficient does not necessarily mean higher accuracy.Keywords: MIKE 21 SW, CEM method, significant wave height, difference ratio
Procedia PDF Downloads 401232 Rainfall–Runoff Simulation Using WetSpa Model in Golestan Dam Basin, Iran
Authors: M. R. Dahmardeh Ghaleno, M. Nohtani, S. Khaledi
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Flood simulation and prediction is one of the most active research areas in surface water management. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous, and physical model with daily or hourly time step that explains precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave equation which depends on the slope, velocity, and flow route characteristics. Golestan Dam Basin is located in Golestan province in Iran and it is passing over coordinates 55° 16´ 50" to 56° 4´ 25" E and 37° 19´ 39" to 37° 49´ 28"N. The area of the catchment is about 224 km2, and elevations in the catchment range from 414 to 2856 m at the outlet, with average slope of 29.78%. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 59% and 80.18%, respectively.Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, stream flow, flood prediction
Procedia PDF Downloads 244231 Open Source, Open Hardware Ground Truth for Visual Odometry and Simultaneous Localization and Mapping Applications
Authors: Janusz Bedkowski, Grzegorz Kisala, Michal Wlasiuk, Piotr Pokorski
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Ground-truth data is essential for VO (Visual Odometry) and SLAM (Simultaneous Localization and Mapping) quantitative evaluation using e.g. ATE (Absolute Trajectory Error) and RPE (Relative Pose Error). Many open-access data sets provide raw and ground-truth data for benchmark purposes. The issue appears when one would like to validate Visual Odometry and/or SLAM approaches on data captured using the device for which the algorithm is targeted for example mobile phone and disseminate data for other researchers. For this reason, we propose an open source, open hardware groundtruth system that provides an accurate and precise trajectory with a 3D point cloud. It is based on LiDAR Livox Mid-360 with a non-repetitive scanning pattern, on-board Raspberry Pi 4B computer, battery and software for off-line calculations (camera to LiDAR calibration, LiDAR odometry, SLAM, georeferencing). We show how this system can be used for the evaluation of various the state of the art algorithms (Stella SLAM, ORB SLAM3, DSO) in typical indoor monocular VO/SLAM.Keywords: SLAM, ground truth, navigation, LiDAR, visual odometry, mapping
Procedia PDF Downloads 68230 Study on Practice of Improving Water Quality in Urban Rivers by Diverting Clean Water
Authors: Manjie Li, Xiangju Cheng, Yongcan Chen
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With rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, water environmental deterioration is widespread in majority of urban rivers, which seriously affects city image and life satisfaction of residents. As an emergency measure to improve water quality, clean water diversion is introduced for water environmental management. Lubao River and Southwest River, two urban rivers in typical plain tidal river network, are identified as technically and economically feasible for the application of clean water diversion. One-dimensional hydrodynamic-water quality model is developed to simulate temporal and spatial variations of water level and water quality, with satisfactory accuracy. The mathematical model after calibration is applied to investigate hydrodynamic and water quality variations in rivers as well as determine the optimum operation scheme of water diversion. Assessment system is developed for evaluation of positive and negative effects of water diversion, demonstrating the effectiveness of clean water diversion and the necessity of pollution reduction.Keywords: assessment system, clean water diversion, hydrodynamic-water quality model, tidal river network, urban rivers, water environment improvement
Procedia PDF Downloads 276229 Numerical Modeling of Phase Change Materials Walls under Reunion Island's Tropical Weather
Authors: Lionel Trovalet, Lisa Liu, Dimitri Bigot, Nadia Hammami, Jean-Pierre Habas, Bruno Malet-Damour
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The MCP-iBAT1 project is carried out to study the behavior of Phase Change Materials (PCM) integrated in building envelopes in a tropical environment. Through the phase transitions (melting and freezing) of the material, thermal energy can be absorbed or released. This process enables the regulation of indoor temperatures and the improvement of thermal comfort for the occupants. Most of the commercially available PCMs are more suitable to temperate climates than to tropical climates. The case of Reunion Island is noteworthy as there are multiple micro-climates. This leads to our key question: developing one or multiple bio-based PCMs that cover the thermal needs of the different locations of the island. The present paper focuses on the numerical approach to select the PCM properties relevant to tropical areas. Numerical simulations have been carried out with two softwares: EnergyPlusTM and Isolab. The latter has been developed in the laboratory, with the implicit Finite Difference Method, in order to evaluate different physical models. Both are Thermal Dynamic Simulation (TDS) softwares that predict the building’s thermal behavior with one-dimensional heat transfers. The parameters used in this study are the construction’s characteristics (dimensions and materials) and the environment’s description (meteorological data and building surroundings). The building is modeled in accordance with the experimental setup. It is divided into two rooms, cells A and B, with same dimensions. Cell A is the reference, while in cell B, a layer of commercial PCM (Thermo Confort of MCI Technologies) has been applied to the inner surface of the North wall. Sensors are installed in each room to retrieve temperatures, heat flows, and humidity rates. The collected data are used for the comparison with the numerical results. Our strategy is to implement two similar buildings at different altitudes (Saint-Pierre: 70m and Le Tampon: 520m) to measure different temperature ranges. Therefore, we are able to collect data for various seasons during a condensed time period. The following methodology is used to validate the numerical models: calibration of the thermal and PCM models in EnergyPlusTM and Isolab based on experimental measures, then numerical testing with a sensitivity analysis of the parameters to reach the targeted indoor temperatures. The calibration relies on the past ten months’ measures (from September 2020 to June 2021), with a focus on one-week study on November (beginning of summer) when the effect of PCM on inner surface temperatures is more visible. A first simulation with the PCM model of EnergyPlus gave results approaching the measurements with a mean error of 5%. The studied property in this paper is the melting temperature of the PCM. By determining the representative temperature of winter, summer and inter-seasons with past annual’s weather data, it is possible to build a numerical model of multi-layered PCM. Hence, the combined properties of the materials will provide an optimal scenario for the application on PCM in tropical areas. Future works will focus on the development of bio-based PCMs with the selected properties followed by experimental and numerical validation of the materials. 1Materiaux ´ a Changement de Phase, une innovation pour le B ` ati TropicalKeywords: energyplus, multi-layer of PCM, phase changing materials, tropical area
Procedia PDF Downloads 95228 An Internet of Things-Based Weight Monitoring System for Honey
Authors: Zheng-Yan Ruan, Chien-Hao Wang, Hong-Jen Lin, Chien-Peng Huang, Ying-Hao Chen, En-Cheng Yang, Chwan-Lu Tseng, Joe-Air Jiang
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Bees play a vital role in pollination. This paper focuses on the weighing process of honey. Honey is usually stored at the comb in a hive. Bee farmers brush bees away from the comb and then collect honey, and the collected honey is weighed afterward. However, such a process brings strong negative influences on bees and even leads to the death of bees. This paper therefore presents an Internet of Things-based weight monitoring system which uses weight sensors to measure the weight of honey and simplifies the whole weighing procedure. To verify the system, the weight measured by the system is compared to the weight of standard weights used for calibration by employing a linear regression model. The R2 of the regression model is 0.9788, which suggests that the weighing system is highly reliable and is able to be applied to obtain actual weight of honey. In the future, the weight data of honey can be used to find the relationship between honey production and different ecological parameters, such as bees’ foraging behavior and weather conditions. It is expected that the findings can serve as critical information for honey production improvement.Keywords: internet of things, weight, honey, bee
Procedia PDF Downloads 458227 Improving Monitoring and Fault Detection of Solar Panels Using Arduino Mega in WSN
Authors: Ali Al-Dahoud, Mohamed Fezari, Thamer Al-Rawashdeh, Ismail Jannoud
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Monitoring and detecting faults on a set of Solar panels, using a wireless sensor network (WNS) is our contribution in this paper, This work is part of the project we are working on at Al-Zaytoonah University. The research problem has been exposed by engineers and technicians or operators dealing with PV panels maintenance, in order to monitor and detect faults within solar panels which affect considerably the energy produced by the solar panels. The proposed solution is based on installing WSN nodes with appropriate sensors for more often occurred faults on the 45 solar panels installed on the roof of IT faculty. A simulation has been done on nodes distribution and a study for the design of a node with appropriate sensors taking into account the priorities of the processing faults. Finally, a graphic user interface is designed and adapted to telemonitoring panels using WSN. The primary tests of hardware implementation gave interesting results, the sensors calibration and interference transmission problem have been solved. A friendly GUI using high level language Visial Basic was developed to carry out the monitoring process and to save data on Exel File.Keywords: Arduino Mega microcnotroller, solar panels, fault-detection, simulation, node design
Procedia PDF Downloads 465226 Optimizing the Efficiency of Measuring Instruments in Ouagadougou-Burkina Faso
Authors: Moses Emetere, Marvel Akinyemi, S. E. Sanni
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At the moment, AERONET or AMMA database shows a large volume of data loss. With only about 47% data set available to the scientist, it is evident that accurate nowcast or forecast cannot be guaranteed. The calibration constants of most radiosonde or weather stations are not compatible with the atmospheric conditions of the West African climate. A dispersion model was developed to incorporate salient mathematical representations like a Unified number. The Unified number was derived to describe the turbulence of the aerosols transport in the frictional layer of the lower atmosphere. Fourteen years data set from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) was tested using the dispersion model. A yearly estimation of the atmospheric constants over Ouagadougou using the model was obtained with about 87.5% accuracy. It further revealed that the average atmospheric constant for Ouagadougou-Niger is a_1 = 0.626, a_2 = 0.7999 and the tuning constants is n_1 = 0.09835 and n_2 = 0.266. Also, the yearly atmospheric constants affirmed the lower atmosphere of Ouagadougou is very dynamic. Hence, it is recommended that radiosonde and weather station manufacturers should constantly review the atmospheric constant over a geographical location to enable about eighty percent data retrieval.Keywords: aerosols retention, aerosols loading, statistics, analytical technique
Procedia PDF Downloads 315225 Development of Paper Based Analytical Devices for Analysis of Iron (III) in Natural Water Samples
Authors: Sakchai Satienperakul, Manoch Thanomwat, Jutiporn Seedasama
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A paper based analytical devices (PADs) for the analysis of Fe (III) ion in natural water samples is developed, using reagent from guava leaf extract. The extraction is simply performed in deionized water pH 7, where tannin extract is obtained and used as an alternative natural reagent. The PADs are fabricated by ink-jet printing using alkenyl ketene dimer (AKD) wax. The quantitation of Fe (III) is carried out using reagent from guava leaf extract prepared in acetate buffer at the ratio of 1:1. A color change to gray-purple is observed by naked eye when dropping sample contained Fe (III) ion on PADs channel. The reflective absorption measurement is performed for creating a standard curve. The linear calibration range is observed over the concentration range of 2-10 mg L-1. Detection limited of Fe (III) is observed at 2 mg L-1. In its optimum form, the PADs is stable for up to 30 days under oxygen free conditions. The small dimensions, low volume requirement and alternative natural reagent make the proposed PADs attractive for on-site environmental monitoring and analysis.Keywords: green chemical analysis, guava leaf extract, lab on a chip, paper based analytical device
Procedia PDF Downloads 240224 Detection of Total Aflatoxin in Flour of Wheat and Maize Samples in Albania Using ELISA
Authors: Aferdita Dinaku, Jonida Canaj
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Aflatoxins are potentially toxic metabolites produced by certain kinds of fungi (molds) that are found naturally all over the world; they can contaminate food crops and pose a serious health threat to humans by mutagenic and carcinogenic effects. Several types of aflatoxin (14 or more) occur in nature. In Albanian nutrition, cereals (especially wheat and corn) are common ingredients in some traditional meals. This study aimed to investigate the presence of aflatoxins in the flour of wheat and maize that are consumed in Albania’s markets. The samples were collected randomly in different markets in Albania and detected by the ELISA method, measured in 450 nm. The concentration of total aflatoxins was analyzed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and they were ranged between 0.05-1.09 ppb. However, the screened mycotoxin levels in the samples were lower than the maximum permissible limits of European Commission No 1881/2006 (4 μg/kg). The linearity of calibration curves was good for total aflatoxins (B1, B2, G1, G2, M1) (R²=0.99) in the concentration range 0.005-4.05 ppb. The samples were analyzed in two replicated measurements and for each sample, the standard deviation (statistical parameter) is calculated. The results showed that the flour samples are safe, but the necessity of performing such tests is necessary.Keywords: aflatoxins, ELISA technique, food contamination, flour
Procedia PDF Downloads 157223 A Copula-Based Approach for the Assessment of Severity of Illness and Probability of Mortality: An Exploratory Study Applied to Intensive Care Patients
Authors: Ainura Tursunalieva, Irene Hudson
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Continuous improvement of both the quality and safety of health care is an important goal in Australia and internationally. The intensive care unit (ICU) receives patients with a wide variety of and severity of illnesses. Accurately identifying patients at risk of developing complications or dying is crucial to increasing healthcare efficiency. Thus, it is essential for clinicians and researchers to have a robust framework capable of evaluating the risk profile of a patient. ICU scoring systems provide such a framework. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II are ICU scoring systems frequently used for assessing the severity of acute illness. These scoring systems collect multiple risk factors for each patient including physiological measurements then render the assessment outcomes of individual risk factors into a single numerical value. A higher score is related to a more severe patient condition. Furthermore, the Mortality Probability Model II uses logistic regression based on independent risk factors to predict a patient’s probability of mortality. An important overlooked limitation of SAPS II and MPM II is that they do not, to date, include interaction terms between a patient’s vital signs. This is a prominent oversight as it is likely there is an interplay among vital signs. The co-existence of certain conditions may pose a greater health risk than when these conditions exist independently. One barrier to including such interaction terms in predictive models is the dimensionality issue as it becomes difficult to use variable selection. We propose an innovative scoring system which takes into account a dependence structure among patient’s vital signs, such as systolic and diastolic blood pressures, heart rate, pulse interval, and peripheral oxygen saturation. Copulas will capture the dependence among normally distributed and skewed variables as some of the vital sign distributions are skewed. The estimated dependence parameter will then be incorporated into the traditional scoring systems to adjust the points allocated for the individual vital sign measurements. The same dependence parameter will also be used to create an alternative copula-based model for predicting a patient’s probability of mortality. The new copula-based approach will accommodate not only a patient’s trajectories of vital signs but also the joint dependence probabilities among the vital signs. We hypothesise that this approach will produce more stable assessments and lead to more time efficient and accurate predictions. We will use two data sets: (1) 250 ICU patients admitted once to the Chui Regional Hospital (Kyrgyzstan) and (2) 37 ICU patients’ agitation-sedation profiles collected by the Hunter Medical Research Institute (Australia). Both the traditional scoring approach and our copula-based approach will be evaluated using the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic to indicate the discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration. We will also report discrimination and calibration values and establish visualization of the copulas and high dimensional regions of risk interrelating two or three vital signs in so-called higher dimensional ROCs.Keywords: copula, intensive unit scoring system, ROC curves, vital sign dependence
Procedia PDF Downloads 152222 Multiscale Syntheses of Knee Collateral Ligament Stresses: Aggregate Mechanics as a Function of Molecular Properties
Authors: Raouf Mbarki, Fadi Al Khatib, Malek Adouni
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Knee collateral ligaments play a significant role in restraining excessive frontal motion (varus/valgus rotations). In this investigation, a multiscale frame was developed based on structural hierarchies of the collateral ligaments starting from the bottom (tropocollagen molecule) to up where the fibred reinforced structure established. Experimental data of failure tensile test were considered as the principal driver of the developed model. This model was calibrated statistically using Bayesian calibration due to the high number of unknown parameters. Then the model is scaled up to fit the real structure of the collateral ligaments and simulated under realistic boundary conditions. Predications have been successful in describing the observed transient response of the collateral ligaments during tensile test under pre- and post-damage loading conditions. Collateral ligaments maximum stresses and strengths were observed near to the femoral insertions, a results that is in good agreement with experimental investigations. Also for the first time, damage initiation and propagation were documented with this model as a function of the cross-link density between tropocollagen molecules.Keywords: multiscale model, tropocollagen, fibrils, ligaments commas
Procedia PDF Downloads 159221 Effect of Installation Method on the Ratio of Tensile to Compressive Shaft Capacity of Piles in Dense Sand
Authors: A. C. Galvis-Castro, R. D. Tovar, R. Salgado, M. Prezzi
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It is generally accepted that the shaft capacity of piles in the sand is lower for tensile loading that for compressive loading. So far, very little attention has been paid to the role of the influence of the installation method on the tensile to compressive shaft capacity ratio. The objective of this paper is to analyze the effect of installation method on the tensile to compressive shaft capacity of piles in dense sand as observed in tests on half-circular model pile tests in a half-circular calibration chamber with digital image correlation (DIC) capability. Model piles are either monotonically jacked, jacked with multiple strokes or pre-installed into the dense sand samples. Digital images of the model pile and sand are taken during both the installation and loading stages of each test and processed using the DIC technique to obtain the soil displacement and strain fields. The study provides key insights into the mobilization of shaft resistance in tensile and compressive loading for both displacement and non-displacement piles.Keywords: digital image correlation, piles, sand, shaft resistance
Procedia PDF Downloads 272220 The Ductile Fracture of Armor Steel Targets Subjected to Ballistic Impact and Perforation: Calibration of Four Damage Criteria
Authors: Imen Asma Mbarek, Alexis Rusinek, Etienne Petit, Guy Sutter, Gautier List
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Over the past two decades, the automotive, aerospace and army industries have been paying an increasing attention to Finite Elements (FE) numerical simulations of the fracture process of their structures. Thanks to the numerical simulations, it is nowadays possible to analyze several problems involving costly and dangerous extreme loadings safely and at a reduced cost such as blast or ballistic impact problems. The present paper is concerned with ballistic impact and perforation problems involving ductile fracture of thin armor steel targets. The target fracture process depends usually on various parameters: the projectile nose shape, the target thickness and its mechanical properties as well as the impact conditions (friction, oblique/normal impact...). In this work, the investigations are concerned with the normal impact of a conical head-shaped projectile on thin armor steel targets. The main aim is to establish a comparative study of four fracture criteria that are commonly used in the fracture process simulations of structures subjected to extreme loadings such as ballistic impact and perforation. Usually, the damage initiation results from a complex physical process that occurs at the micromechanical scale. On a macro scale and according to the following fracture models, the variables on which the fracture depends are mainly the stress triaxiality ƞ, the strain rate, temperature T, and eventually the Lode angle parameter Ɵ. The four failure criteria are: the critical strain to failure model, the Johnson-Cook model, the Wierzbicki model and the Modified Hosford-Coulomb model MHC. Using the SEM, the observations of the fracture facies of tension specimen and of armor steel targets impacted at low and high incident velocities show that the fracture of the specimens is a ductile fracture. The failure mode of the targets is petalling with crack propagation and the fracture facies are covered with micro-cavities. The parameters of each ductile fracture model have been identified for three armor steels and the applicability of each criterion was evaluated using experimental investigations coupled to numerical simulations. Two loading paths were investigated in this study, under a wide range of strain rates. Namely, quasi-static and intermediate uniaxial tension and quasi-static and dynamic double shear testing allow covering various values of stress triaxiality ƞ and of the Lode angle parameter Ɵ. All experiments were conducted on three different armor steel specimen under quasi-static strain rates ranging from 10-4 to 10-1 1/s and at three different temperatures ranging from 297K to 500K, allowing drawing the influence of temperature on the fracture process. Intermediate tension testing was coupled to dynamic double shear experiments conducted on the Hopkinson tube device, allowing to spot the effect of high strain rate on the damage evolution and the crack propagation. The aforementioned fracture criteria are implemented into the FE code ABAQUS via VUMAT subroutine and they were coupled to suitable constitutive relations allow having reliable results of ballistic impact problems simulation. The calibration of the four damage criteria as well as a concise evaluation of the applicability of each criterion are detailed in this work.Keywords: armor steels, ballistic impact, damage criteria, ductile fracture, SEM
Procedia PDF Downloads 313219 Presenting the Mathematical Model to Determine Retention in the Watersheds
Authors: S. Shamohammadi, L. Razavi
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This paper based on the principle concepts of SCS-CN model, a new mathematical model for computation of retention potential (S) presented. In the mathematical model, not only precipitation-runoff concepts in SCS-CN model are precisely represented in a mathematical form, but also new concepts, called “maximum retention” and “total retention” is introduced, and concepts of potential retention capacity, maximum retention, and total retention have been separated from each other. In the proposed model, actual retention (F), maximum actual retention (Fmax), total retention (S), maximum retention (Smax), and potential retention (Sp), for the first time clearly defined, so that Sp is not variable, but a function of morphological characteristics of the watershed. Indeed, based on the mathematical relation of the conceptual curve of SCS-CN model, the proposed model provides a new method for the computation of actual retention in watershed and it simply determined runoff based on. In the corresponding relations, in addition to Precipitation (P), Initial retention (Ia), cumulative values of actual retention capacity (F), total retention (S), runoff (Q), antecedent moisture (M), potential retention (Sp), total retention (S), we introduced Fmax and Fmin referring to maximum and minimum actual retention, respectively. As well as, ksh is a coefficient which depends on morphological characteristics of the watershed. Advantages of the modified version versus the original model include a better precision, higher performance, easier calibration and speed computing.Keywords: model, mathematical, retention, watershed, SCS
Procedia PDF Downloads 456218 Adaptive Anchor Weighting for Improved Localization with Levenberg-Marquardt Optimization
Authors: Basak Can
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This paper introduces an iterative and weighted localization method that utilizes a unique cost function formulation to significantly enhance the performance of positioning systems. The system employs locators, such as Gateways (GWs), to estimate and track the position of an End Node (EN). Performance is evaluated relative to the number of locators, with known locations determined through calibration. Performance evaluation is presented utilizing low cost single-antenna Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) devices. The proposed approach can be applied to alternative Internet of Things (IoT) modulation schemes, as well as Ultra WideBand (UWB) or millimeter-wave (mmWave) based devices. In non-line-of-sight (NLOS) scenarios, using four or eight locators yields a 95th percentile localization performance of 2.2 meters and 1.5 meters, respectively, in a 4,305 square feet indoor area with BLE 5.1 devices. This method outperforms conventional RSSI-based techniques, achieving a 51% improvement with four locators and a 52 % improvement with eight locators. Future work involves modeling interference impact and implementing data curation across multiple channels to mitigate such effects.Keywords: lateration, least squares, Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, localization, path-loss, RMS error, RSSI, sensors, shadow fading, weighted localization
Procedia PDF Downloads 24217 Status Report of the GERDA Phase II Startup
Authors: Valerio D’Andrea
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The GERmanium Detector Array (GERDA) experiment, located at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (LNGS) of INFN, searches for 0νββ of 76Ge. Germanium diodes enriched to ∼ 86 % in the double beta emitter 76Ge(enrGe) are exposed being both source and detectors of 0νββ decay. Neutrinoless double beta decay is considered a powerful probe to address still open issues in the neutrino sector of the (beyond) Standard Model of particle Physics. Since 2013, just after the completion of the first part of its experimental program (Phase I), the GERDA setup has been upgraded to perform its next step in the 0νββ searches (Phase II). Phase II aims to reach a sensitivity to the 0νββ decay half-life larger than 1026 yr in about 3 years of physics data taking. This exposing a detector mass of about 35 kg of enrGe and with a background index of about 10^−3 cts/(keV·kg·yr). One of the main new implementations is the liquid argon scintillation light read-out, to veto those events that only partially deposit their energy both in Ge and in the surrounding LAr. In this paper, the GERDA Phase II expected goals, the upgrade work and few selected features from the 2015 commissioning and 2016 calibration runs will be presented. The main Phase I achievements will be also reviewed.Keywords: gerda, double beta decay, LNGS, germanium
Procedia PDF Downloads 368216 Use of Fabric Phase Sorptive Extraction with Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry for the Determination of Organochlorine Pesticides in Various Aqueous and Juice Samples
Authors: Ramandeep Kaur, Ashok Kumar Malik
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Fabric Phase Sorptive Extraction (FPSE) combined with Gas chromatography Mass Spectrometry (GCMS) has been developed for the determination of nineteen organochlorine pesticides in various aqueous samples. The method consolidates the features of sol-gel derived microextraction sorbents with rich surface chemistry of cellulose fabric substrate which could directly extract sample from complex sample matrices and incredibly improve the operation with decreased pretreatment time. Some vital parameters such as kind and volume of extraction solvent and extraction time were examinedand optimized. Calibration curves were obtained in the concentration range 0.5-500 ng/mL. Under the optimum conditions, the limits of detection (LODs) were in the range 0.033 ng/mL to 0.136 ng/mL. The relative standard deviations (RSDs) for extraction of 10 ng/mL 0f OCPs were less than 10%. The developed method has been applied for the quantification of these compounds in aqueous and fruit juice samples. The results obtained proved the present method to be rapid and feasible for the determination of organochlorine pesticides in aqueous samples.Keywords: fabric phase sorptive extraction, gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, organochlorine pesticides, sample pretreatment
Procedia PDF Downloads 484215 Structural Behavior of Subsoil Depending on Constitutive Model in Calculation Model of Pavement Structure-Subsoil System
Authors: M. Kadela
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The load caused by the traffic movement should be transferred in the road constructions in a harmless way to the pavement as follows: − on the stiff upper layers of the structure (e.g. layers of asphalt: abrading and binding), and − through the layers of principal and secondary substructure, − on the subsoil, directly or through an improved subsoil layer. Reliable description of the interaction proceeding in a system “road construction – subsoil” should be in such case one of the basic requirements of the assessment of the size of internal forces of structure and its durability. Analyses of road constructions are based on: − elements of mechanics, which allows to create computational models, and − results of the experiments included in the criteria of fatigue life analyses. Above approach is a fundamental feature of commonly used mechanistic methods. They allow to use in the conducted evaluations of the fatigue life of structures arbitrarily complex numerical computational models. Considering the work of the system “road construction – subsoil”, it is commonly accepted that, as a result of repetitive loads on the subsoil under pavement, the growth of relatively small deformation in the initial phase is recognized, then this increase disappears, and the deformation takes the character completely reversible. The reliability of calculation model is combined with appropriate use (for a given type of analysis) of constitutive relationships. Phenomena occurring in the initial stage of the system “road construction – subsoil” is unfortunately difficult to interpret in the modeling process. The classic interpretation of the behavior of the material in the elastic-plastic model (e-p) is that elastic phase of the work (e) is undergoing to phase (e-p) by increasing the load (or growth of deformation in the damaging structure). The paper presents the essence of the calibration process of cooperating subsystem in the calculation model of the system “road construction – subsoil”, created for the mechanistic analysis. Calibration process was directed to show the impact of applied constitutive models on its deformation and stress response. The proper comparative base for assessing the reliability of created. This work was supported by the on-going research project “Stabilization of weak soil by application of layer of foamed concrete used in contact with subsoil” (LIDER/022/537/L-4/NCBR/2013) financed by The National Centre for Research and Development within the LIDER Programme. M. Kadela is with the Department of Building Construction Elements and Building Structures on Mining Areas, Building Research Institute, Silesian Branch, Katowice, Poland (phone: +48 32 730 29 47; fax: +48 32 730 25 22; e-mail: m.kadela@ itb.pl). models should be, however, the actual, monitored system “road construction – subsoil”. The paper presents too behavior of subsoil under cyclic load transmitted by pavement layers. The response of subsoil to cyclic load is recorded in situ by the observation system (sensors) installed on the testing ground prepared for this purpose, being a part of the test road near Katowice, in Poland. A different behavior of the homogeneous subsoil under pavement is observed for different seasons of the year, when pavement construction works as a flexible structure in summer, and as a rigid plate in winter. Albeit the observed character of subsoil response is the same regardless of the applied load and area values, this response can be divided into: - zone of indirect action of the applied load; this zone extends to the depth of 1,0 m under the pavement, - zone of a small strain, extending to about 2,0 m.Keywords: road structure, constitutive model, calculation model, pavement, soil, FEA, response of soil, monitored system
Procedia PDF Downloads 354214 Smart Side View Mirror Camera for Real Time System
Authors: Nunziata Ivana Guarneri, Arcangelo Bruna, Giuseppe Spampinato, Antonio Buemi
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In the last decade, automotive companies have invested a lot in terms of innovation about many aspects regarding the automatic driver assistance systems. One innovation regards the usage of a smart camera placed on the car’s side mirror for monitoring the back and lateral road situation. A common road scenario is the overtaking of the preceding car and, in this case, a brief distraction or a loss of concentration can lead the driver to undertake this action, even if there is an already overtaking vehicle, leading to serious accidents. A valid support for a secure drive can be a smart camera system, which is able to automatically analyze the road scenario and consequentially to warn the driver when another vehicle is overtaking. This paper describes a method for monitoring the side view of a vehicle by using camera optical flow motion vectors. The proposed solution detects the presence of incoming vehicles, assesses their distance from the host car, and warns the driver through different levels of alert according to the estimated distance. Due to the low complexity and computational cost, the proposed system ensures real time performances.Keywords: camera calibration, ego-motion, Kalman filters, object tracking, real time systems
Procedia PDF Downloads 228213 Calibrating Risk Factors for Road Safety in Low Income Countries
Authors: Atheer Al-Nuaimi, Harry Evdorides
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Daily, many individuals die or get harmed on streets around the globe, which requires more particular solutions for transport safety issues. International road assessment program (iRAP) is one of the models that are considering many variables which influence road user’s safety. In iRAP, roads have been partitioned into five-star ratings from 1 star (the most reduced level) to 5 star (the most noteworthy level). These levels are calculated from risk factors which represent the effect of the geometric and traffic conditions on rod safety. The result of iRAP philosophy are the countermeasures that can be utilized to enhance safety levels and lessen fatalities numbers. These countermeasures can be utilized independently as a single treatment or in combination with other countermeasures for a section or an entire road. There is a general understanding that the efficiency of a countermeasure is liable to reduction when it is used in combination with various countermeasures. That is, crash diminishment estimations of single countermeasures cannot be summed easily. In the iRAP model, the fatalities estimations are calculated using a specific methodology. However, this methodology suffers overestimations. Therefore, this study has developed a calibration method to estimate fatalities numbers more accurately.Keywords: crash risk factors, international road assessment program, low-income countries, road safety
Procedia PDF Downloads 146212 Study on Construction of 3D Topography by UAV-Based Images
Authors: Yun-Yao Chi, Chieh-Kai Tsai, Dai-Ling Li
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In this paper, a method of fast 3D topography modeling using the high-resolution camera images is studied based on the characteristics of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) system for low altitude aerial photogrammetry and the need of three dimensional (3D) urban landscape modeling. Firstly, the existing high-resolution digital camera with special design of overlap images is designed by reconstructing and analyzing the auto-flying paths of UAVs, which improves the self-calibration function to achieve the high precision imaging by software, and further increased the resolution of the imaging system. Secondly, several-angle images including vertical images and oblique images gotten by the UAV system are used for the detail measure of urban land surfaces and the texture extraction. Finally, the aerial photography and 3D topography construction are both developed in campus of Chang-Jung University and in Guerin district area in Tainan, Taiwan, provide authentication model for construction of 3D topography based on combined UAV-based camera images from system. The results demonstrated that the UAV system for low altitude aerial photogrammetry can be used in the construction of 3D topography production, and the technology solution in this paper offers a new, fast, and technical plan for the 3D expression of the city landscape, fine modeling and visualization.Keywords: 3D, topography, UAV, images
Procedia PDF Downloads 303211 A Stochastic Volatility Model for Optimal Market-Making
Authors: Zubier Arfan, Paul Johnson
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The electronification of financial markets and the rise of algorithmic trading has sparked a lot of interest from the mathematical community, for the market making-problem in particular. The research presented in this short paper solves the classic stochastic control problem in order to derive the strategy for a market-maker. It also shows how to calibrate and simulate the strategy with real limit order book data for back-testing. The ambiguity of limit-order priority in back-testing is dealt with by considering optimistic and pessimistic priority scenarios. The model, although it does outperform a naive strategy, assumes constant volatility, therefore, is not best suited to the LOB data. The Heston model is introduced to describe the price and variance process of the asset. The Trader's constant absolute risk aversion utility function is optimised by numerically solving a 3-dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial differential equation to find the optimal limit order quotes. The results show that the stochastic volatility market-making model is more suitable for a risk-averse trader and is also less sensitive to calibration error than the constant volatility model.Keywords: market-making, market-microsctrucure, stochastic volatility, quantitative trading
Procedia PDF Downloads 150210 Enhancing a Recidivism Prediction Tool with Machine Learning: Effectiveness and Algorithmic Fairness
Authors: Marzieh Karimihaghighi, Carlos Castillo
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This work studies how Machine Learning (ML) may be used to increase the effectiveness of a criminal recidivism risk assessment tool, RisCanvi. The two key dimensions of this analysis are predictive accuracy and algorithmic fairness. ML-based prediction models obtained in this study are more accurate at predicting criminal recidivism than the manually-created formula used in RisCanvi, achieving an AUC of 0.76 and 0.73 in predicting violent and general recidivism respectively. However, the improvements are small, and it is noticed that algorithmic discrimination can easily be introduced between groups such as national vs foreigner, or young vs old. It is described how effectiveness and algorithmic fairness objectives can be balanced, applying a method in which a single error disparity in terms of generalized false positive rate is minimized, while calibration is maintained across groups. Obtained results show that this bias mitigation procedure can substantially reduce generalized false positive rate disparities across multiple groups. Based on these results, it is proposed that ML-based criminal recidivism risk prediction should not be introduced without applying algorithmic bias mitigation procedures.Keywords: algorithmic fairness, criminal risk assessment, equalized odds, recidivism
Procedia PDF Downloads 152209 Modular Probe for Basic Monitoring of Water and Air Quality
Authors: Andrés Calvillo Téllez, Marianne Martínez Zanzarric, José Cruz Núñez Pérez
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A modular system that performs basic monitoring of both water and air quality is presented. Monitoring is essential for environmental, aquaculture, and agricultural disciplines, where this type of instrumentation is necessary for data collection. The system uses low-cost components, which allows readings close to those with high-cost probes. The probe collects readings such as the coordinates of the geographical position, as well as the time it records the target parameters of the monitored. The modules or subsystems that make up the probe are the global positioning (GPS), which shows the altitude, latitude, and longitude data of the point where the reading will be recorded, a real-time clock stage, the date marking the time, the module SD memory continuously stores data, data acquisition system, central processing unit, and energy. The system acquires parameters to measure water quality, conductivity, pressure, and temperature, and for air, three types of ammonia, dioxide, and carbon monoxide gases were censored. The information obtained allowed us to identify the schedule of modification of the parameters and the identification of the ideal conditions for the growth of microorganisms in the water.Keywords: calibration, conductivity, datalogger, monitoring, real time clock, water quality
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