Search results for: hidden Markov Models

Authors: Steven D. P Moore

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A novel method referred to asKýklos(Ky) dimensional geometry is proposed as an entity specific core geometric dimensional measurement system. Ky geometric measures can constructscaled multi-dimensionalmodels using regular and irregular sets in IRn. This entity specific-derived geometric measurement system shares similar fractal methods in which a ‘fractal transformation operator’ is applied to a set S to produce a union of N copies. The Kýklos’ inputs use 1D geometry as a core measure. One-dimensional inputs include the radius interval of a circle/sphere or the semiminor/semimajor axes intervals of an ellipse or spheroid. These geometric inputs have finite values that can be measured by SI distance units. The outputs for each interval are divided and subdivided 1D subcomponents with a union equal to the interval geometry/length. Setting a limit of subdivision iterations creates a finite value for each 1Dsubcomponent. The uniqueness of this method is captured by allowing the simplest 1D inputs to define entity specific subclass geometric core measurements that can also be used to derive length measures. Current methodologies for celestial based measurement of time, as defined within SI units, fits within this methodology, thus combining spatial and temporal features into geometric core measures. The novel Ky method discussed here offers geometric measures to construct scaled multi-dimensional structures, even models. Ky classes proposed for consideration include celestial even subatomic. The application of this offers incredible possibilities, for example, geometric architecture that can represent scaled celestial models that incorporates planets (spheroids) and celestial motion (elliptical orbits).

Keywords: Kyklos, geometry, measurement, celestial, dimension

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Authors: Amit Gill, Lalith Wijerathne, Sebastian Poledna

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This research presents the details of the implementation of high performance computing (HPC) extension of agent-based economic models (ABEMs) to simulate hundreds of millions of heterogeneous agents. ABEMs offer an alternative approach to study the economy as a dynamic system of interacting heterogeneous agents, and are gaining popularity as an alternative to standard economic models. Over the last decade, ABEMs have been increasingly applied to study various problems related to monetary policy, bank regulations, etc. When it comes to predicting the effects of local economic disruptions, like major disasters, changes in policies, exogenous shocks, etc., on the economy of the country or the region, it is pertinent to study how the disruptions cascade through every single economic entity affecting its decisions and interactions, and eventually affect the economic macro parameters. However, such simulations with hundreds of millions of agents are hindered by the lack of HPC enhanced ABEMs. In order to address this, a scalable Distributed Memory Parallel (DMP) implementation of ABEMs has been developed using message passing interface (MPI). A balanced distribution of computational load among MPI-processes (i.e. CPU cores) of computer clusters while taking all the interactions among agents into account is a major challenge for scalable DMP implementations. Economic agents interact on several random graphs, some of which are centralized (e.g. credit networks, etc.) whereas others are dense with random links (e.g. consumption markets, etc.). The agents are partitioned into mutually-exclusive subsets based on a representative employer-employee interaction graph, while the remaining graphs are made available at a minimum communication cost. To minimize the number of communications among MPI processes, real-life solutions like the introduction of recruitment agencies, sales outlets, local banks, and local branches of government in each MPI-process, are adopted. Efficient communication among MPI-processes is achieved by combining MPI derived data types with the new features of the latest MPI functions. Most of the communications are overlapped with computations, thereby significantly reducing the communication overhead. The current implementation is capable of simulating a small open economy. As an example, a single time step of a 1:1 scale model of Austria (i.e. about 9 million inhabitants and 600,000 businesses) can be simulated in 15 seconds. The implementation is further being enhanced to simulate 1:1 model of Euro-zone (i.e. 322 million agents).

Keywords: agent-based economic model, high performance computing, MPI-communication, MPI-process

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Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

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This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine-learning methods, such as random forest, are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. Random Forest showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the Random Forest method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods.

Keywords: cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: J. Fox, J. Randhawa, M. Chan, L. Campbell, A. Weakely, D. J. Harvey, S. Tomaszewski Farias

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Early identification of individuals at risk for conversion to dementia provides an opportunity for preventative treatment. Many older adults (30-60%) report specific subjective cognitive decline (SCD); however, previous research is inconsistent in terms of what types of complaints predict future cognitive decline. The purpose of this study is to identify which specific complaints from the Everyday Cognition Scales (ECog) scales, a measure of self-reported concerns for everyday abilities across six cognitive domains, are associated with: 1) conversion from a clinical diagnosis of normal to either MCI or dementia (categorical variable) and 2) progressive cognitive decline in memory and executive function (continuous variables). 415 cognitively normal older adults were monitored annually for an average of 5 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess associations between self-reported ECog items and progression to impairment (MCI or dementia). A total of 114 individuals progressed to impairment; the mean time to progression was 4.9 years (SD=3.4 years, range=0.8-13.8). Follow-up models were run controlling for depression. A subset of individuals (n=352) underwent repeat cognitive assessments for an average of 5.3 years. For those individuals, mixed effects models with random intercepts and slopes were used to assess associations between ECog items and change in neuropsychological measures of episodic memory or executive function. Prior to controlling for depression, subjective concerns on five of the eight Everyday Memory items, three of the nine Everyday Language items, one of the seven Everyday Visuospatial items, two of the five Everyday Planning items, and one of the six Everyday Organization items were associated with subsequent diagnostic conversion (HR=1.25 to 1.59, p=0.003 to 0.03). However, after controlling for depression, only two specific complaints of remembering appointments, meetings, and engagements and understanding spoken directions and instructions were associated with subsequent diagnostic conversion. Episodic memory in individuals reporting no concern on ECog items did not significantly change over time (p>0.4). More complaints on seven of the eight Everyday Memory items, three of the nine Everyday Language items, and three of the seven Everyday Visuospatial items were associated with a decline in episodic memory (Interaction estimate=-0.055 to 0.001, p=0.003 to 0.04). Executive function in those reporting no concern on ECog items declined slightly (p <0.001 to 0.06). More complaints on three of the eight Everyday Memory items and three of the nine Everyday Language items were associated with a decline in executive function (Interaction estimate=-0.021 to -0.012, p=0.002 to 0.04). These findings suggest that specific complaints across several cognitive domains are associated with diagnostic conversion. Specific complaints in the domains of Everyday Memory and Language are associated with a decline in both episodic memory and executive function. Increased monitoring and treatment of individuals with these specific SCD may be warranted.

Keywords: alzheimer’s disease, dementia, memory complaints, mild cognitive impairment, risk factors, subjective cognitive decline

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Authors: Wade Ghribi, Abdelmoty M. Ahmed, Ahmed Said Badawy, Belgacem Bouallegue

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In higher education institutions, the most pressing priority is to improve student performance and retention. Large volumes of student data are used in Educational Data Mining techniques to find new hidden information from students' learning behavior, particularly to uncover the early symptom of at-risk pupils. On the other hand, data with noise, outliers, and irrelevant information may provide incorrect conclusions. By identifying features of students' data that have the potential to improve performance prediction results, comparing and identifying the most appropriate ensemble learning technique after preprocessing the data, and optimizing the hyperparameters, this paper aims to develop a reliable students' performance prediction model for Higher Education Institutions. Data was gathered from two different systems: a student information system and an e-learning system for undergraduate students in the College of Computer Science of a Saudi Arabian State University. The cases of 4413 students were used in this article. The process includes data collection, data integration, data preprocessing (such as cleaning, normalization, and transformation), feature selection, pattern extraction, and, finally, model optimization and assessment. Random Forest, Bagging, Stacking, Majority Vote, and two types of Boosting techniques, AdaBoost and XGBoost, are ensemble learning approaches, whereas Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network are supervised learning techniques. Hyperparameters for ensemble learning systems will be fine-tuned to provide enhanced performance and optimal output. The findings imply that combining features of students' behavior from e-learning and students' information systems using Majority Vote produced better outcomes than the other ensemble techniques.

Keywords: educational data mining, student performance prediction, e-learning, classification, ensemble learning, higher education

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Authors: Alireza Nikbakht Shahbazi

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There are various factors that affect climate changes; drought is one of those factors. Investigation of efficient methods for estimating climate change impacts on drought should be assumed. The aim of this paper is to investigate climate change impacts on drought in Karoon3 watershed located south-western Iran in the future periods. The atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) data under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios should be used for this purpose. In this study, watershed drought under climate change impacts will be simulated in future periods (2011 to 2099). Standard precipitation index (SPI) as a drought index was selected and calculated using mean monthly precipitation data in Karoon3 watershed. SPI was calculated in 6, 12 and 24 months periods. Statistical analysis on daily precipitation and minimum and maximum daily temperature was performed. LRAS-WG5 was used to determine the feasibility of future period's meteorological data production. Model calibration and verification was performed for the base year (1980-2007). Meteorological data simulation for future periods under General Circulation Models and climate change IPCC scenarios was performed and then the drought status using SPI under climate change effects analyzed. Results showed that differences between monthly maximum and minimum temperature will decrease under climate change and spring precipitation shall increase while summer and autumn rainfall shall decrease. The precipitation occurs mainly between January and May in future periods and summer or autumn precipitation decline and lead up to short term drought in the study region. Normal and wet SPI category is more frequent in B1 and A2 emissions scenarios than A1B.

Keywords: climate change impact, drought severity, drought frequency, Karoon3 watershed

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Authors: M. Eskandarighadi, C. R. McGann

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It is observed from past experiences of earthquakes that local site conditions can significantly affect the strong ground motion characteristics experience at the site. One-dimensional seismic site response analysis is the most common approach for investigating site response. This approach assumes that soil is homogeneous and infinitely extended in the horizontal direction. Therefore, tying side boundaries together is one way to model this behavior, as the wave passage is assumed to be only vertical. However, 1D analysis cannot capture the 2D nature of wave propagation, soil heterogeneity, and 2D soil profile with features such as inclined layer boundaries. In contrast, 2D seismic site response modeling can consider all of the mentioned factors to better understand local site effects on strong ground motions. 2D wave propagation and considering that the soil profile on the two sides of the model may not be identical clarifies the importance of a boundary condition on each side that can minimize the unwanted reflections from the edges of the model and input appropriate loading conditions. Ideally, the model size should be sufficiently large to minimize the wave reflection, however, due to computational limitations, increasing the model size is impractical in some cases. Another approach is to employ free-field boundary conditions that take into account the free-field motion that would exist far from the model domain and apply this to the sides of the model. This research focuses on implementing free-field boundary conditions in OpenSees for 2D site response analysisComparisons are made between 1D models and 2D models with various boundary conditions, and details and limitations of the developed free-field boundary modeling approach are discussed.

Keywords: boundary condition, free-field, opensees, site response analysis, wave propagation

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Authors: Man-Yu Wong, Siyu Zhou, Zhiqiang Cao

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In quality of life, health service utilization is an important determinant of medical resource expenditures on Colorectal cancer (CRC) care, a better understanding of the increased utilization of health services is essential for optimizing the allocation of healthcare resources to services and thus for enhancing the service quality, especially for high expenditure on CRC care like Hong Kong region. In assessing the association between the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and health service utilization in patients with colorectal neoplasm, count data models can be used, which account for over dispersion or extra zero counts. In our data, the HRQOL evaluation is a self-reported measure obtained from a questionnaire completed by the patients, misreports and variations in the data are inevitable. Besides, there are more zero counts from the observed number of clinical consultations (observed frequency of zero counts = 206) than those from a Poisson distribution with mean equal to 1.33 (expected frequency of zero counts = 156). This suggests that excess of zero counts may exist. Therefore, we study tests for detecting zero-inflation in models with measurement error in covariates. Method: Under classical measurement error model, the approximate likelihood function for zero-inflation Poisson regression model can be obtained, then Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimation(AMLE) can be derived accordingly, which is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. By calculating score function and Fisher information based on AMLE, a score test is proposed to detect zero-inflation effect in ZIP model with measurement error. The proposed test follows asymptotically standard normal distribution under H0, and it is consistent with the test proposed for zero-inflation effect when there is no measurement error. Results: Simulation results show that empirical power of our proposed test is the highest among existing tests for zero-inflation in ZIP model with measurement error. In real data analysis, with or without considering measurement error in covariates, existing tests, and our proposed test all imply H0 should be rejected with P-value less than 0.001, i.e., zero-inflation effect is very significant, ZIP model is superior to Poisson model for analyzing this data. However, if measurement error in covariates is not considered, only one covariate is significant; if measurement error in covariates is considered, only another covariate is significant. Moreover, the direction of coefficient estimations for these two covariates is different in ZIP regression model with or without considering measurement error. Conclusion: In our study, compared to Poisson model, ZIP model should be chosen when assessing the association between condition-specific HRQOL and health service utilization in patients with colorectal neoplasm. and models taking measurement error into account will result in statistically more reliable and precise information.

Keywords: count data, measurement error, score test, zero inflation

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Authors: P. Hooshangitabrizi, I. Contreras, N. Bhuiyan

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This work presents an online scheduling problem which accommodates multiple requests of patients for chemotherapy treatments in a cancer center of a major metropolitan hospital in Canada. To solve the problem, an adaptive flexible approach is proposed which systematically combines two optimization models. The first model is intended to dynamically schedule arriving requests in the form of waiting lists whereas the second model is used to reschedule the already booked patients with the goal of finding better resource allocations when new information becomes available. Both models are created as mixed integer programming formulations. Various controllable and flexible parameters such as deviating the prescribed target dates by a pre-determined threshold, changing the start time of already booked appointments and the maximum number of appointments to move in the schedule are included in the proposed approach to have sufficient degrees of flexibility in handling arrival requests and unexpected changes. Several computational experiments are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach using historical data provided by the oncology clinic. Our approach achieves outstandingly better results as compared to those of the scheduling system being used in practice. Moreover, several analyses are conducted to evaluate the effect of considering different levels of flexibility on the obtained results and to assess the performance of the proposed approach in dealing with last-minute changes. We strongly believe that the proposed flexible adaptive approach is very well-suited for implementation at the clinic to provide better patient-care services and to utilize available resource more efficiently.

Keywords: chemotherapy scheduling, multi-appointment modeling, optimization of resources, satisfaction of patients, mixed integer programming

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Authors: Deyadeen Ali Alshibani

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In the literature, the multi-armed bandit problem as a statistical decision model of an agent trying to optimize his decisions while improving his information at the same time. There are several different algorithms models and their applications on this problem. In this paper, we evaluate the Regret-regression through comparing with Q-learning method. A simulation on determination of optimal treatment regime is presented in detail.

Keywords: optimal, bandit problem, optimization, dynamic programming

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Authors: Hu Zhenxing, Gao Jianxin

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Stereo-based digital image correlation (also referred to as three-dimensional (3D) digital image correlation (DIC)) is a technique for both 3D shape and surface deformation measurement of a component, which has found increasing applications in academia and industries. The accuracy of the reconstructed coordinate depends on many factors such as configuration of the setup, stereo-matching, distortion, etc. Most of these factors have been investigated in literature. For instance, the configuration of a binocular vision system determines the systematic errors. The stereo-matching errors depend on the speckle quality and the matching algorithm, which can only be controlled in a limited range. And the distortion is non-linear particularly in a complex imaging acquisition system. Thus, the distortion correction should be carefully considered. Moreover, the distortion function is difficult to formulate in a complex imaging acquisition system using conventional models in such cases where microscopes and other complex lenses are involved. The errors of the distortion correction will propagate to the reconstructed 3D coordinates. To address the problem, an accurate mapping method based on 2D B-spline functions is proposed in this study. The mapping functions are used to convert the distorted coordinates into an ideal plane without distortions. This approach is suitable for any image acquisition distortion models. It is used as a prior process to convert the distorted coordinate to an ideal position, which enables the camera to conform to the pin-hole model. A procedure of this approach is presented for stereo-based DIC. Using 3D speckle image generation, numerical simulations were carried out to compare the accuracy of both the conventional method and the proposed approach.

Keywords: distortion, stereo-based digital image correlation, b-spline, 3D, 2D

Procedia PDF Downloads 489

Authors: Mohammad Zamani, Ramin Mansouri

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Spillways are one of the most important hydraulic structures of dams that provide the stability of the dam and downstream areas at the time of flood. A circular vertical spillway with various inlet forms is very effective when there is not enough space for the other spillway. Hydraulic flow in a vertical circular spillway is divided into three groups: free, orifice, and under pressure (submerged). In this research, the hydraulic flow characteristics of a Circular Vertical Spillway are investigated with the CFD model. Two-dimensional unsteady RANS equations were solved numerically using Finite Volume Method. The PISO scheme was applied for the velocity-pressure coupling. The mostly used two-equation turbulence models, k-ε and k-ω, were chosen to model Reynolds shear stress term. The power law scheme was used for the discretization of momentum, k, ε, and ω equations. The VOF method (geometrically reconstruction algorithm) was adopted for interface simulation. In this study, three types of computational grids (coarse, intermediate, and fine) were used to discriminate the simulation environment. In order to simulate the flow, the k-ε (Standard, RNG, Realizable) and k-ω (standard and SST) models were used. Also, in order to find the best wall function, two types, standard wall, and non-equilibrium wall function, were investigated. The laminar model did not produce satisfactory flow depth and velocity along the Morning-Glory spillway. The results of the most commonly used two-equation turbulence models (k-ε and k-ω) were identical. Furthermore, the standard wall function produced better results compared to the non-equilibrium wall function. Thus, for other simulations, the standard k-ε with the standard wall function was preferred. The comparison criterion in this study is also the trajectory profile of jet water. The results show that the fine computational grid, the input speed condition for the flow input boundary, and the output pressure for the boundaries that are in contact with the air provide the best possible results. Also, the standard wall function is chosen for the effect of the wall function, and the turbulent model k-ε (Standard) has the most consistent results with experimental results. When the jet gets closer to the end of the basin, the computational results increase with the numerical results of their differences. The mesh with 10602 nodes, turbulent model k-ε standard and the standard wall function, provide the best results for modeling the flow in a vertical circular Spillway. There was a good agreement between numerical and experimental results in the upper and lower nappe profiles. In the study of water level over crest and discharge, in low water levels, the results of numerical modeling are good agreement with the experimental, but with the increasing water level, the difference between the numerical and experimental discharge is more. In the study of the flow coefficient, by decreasing in P/R ratio, the difference between the numerical and experimental result increases.

Keywords: circular vertical, spillway, numerical model, boundary conditions

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Authors: Hamdi Beji, Toufik Kanit, Tanguy Messager

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This study aims to construct a predictive model proficient in foreseeing the linear elastic and thermal characteristics of composite materials, drawing on a multitude of influencing parameters. These parameters encompass the shape of inclusions (circular, elliptical, square, triangle), their spatial coordinates within the matrix, orientation, volume fraction (ranging from 0.05 to 0.4), and variations in contrast (spanning from 10 to 200). A variety of machine learning techniques are deployed, including decision trees, random forests, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, and an artificial neural network (ANN), to facilitate this predictive model. Moreover, this research goes beyond the predictive aspect by delving into an inverse analysis using genetic algorithms. The intent is to unveil the intrinsic characteristics of composite materials by evaluating their thermomechanical responses. The foundation of this research lies in the establishment of a comprehensive database that accounts for the array of input parameters mentioned earlier. This database, enriched with this diversity of input variables, serves as a bedrock for the creation of machine learning and genetic algorithm-based models. These models are meticulously trained to not only predict but also elucidate the mechanical and thermal conduct of composite materials. Remarkably, the coupling of machine learning and genetic algorithms has proven highly effective, yielding predictions with remarkable accuracy, boasting scores ranging between 0.97 and 0.99. This achievement marks a significant breakthrough, demonstrating the potential of this innovative approach in the field of materials engineering.

Keywords: machine learning, composite materials, genetic algorithms, mechanical and thermal proprieties

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Authors: Anuruddha Jayasuriya, Thanakorn Pheeraphan

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In this paper, a review of different mathematical models which can be used as prediction tools to assess the time to crack reinforced concrete (RC) due to corrosion is investigated. This investigation leads to an experimental study to validate a selected prediction model. Most of these mathematical models depend upon the mechanical behaviors, chemical behaviors, electrochemical behaviors or geometric aspects of the RC members during a corrosion process. The experimental program is designed to verify the accuracy of a well-selected mathematical model from a rigorous literature study. Fundamentally, the experimental program exemplifies both one-dimensional chloride diffusion using RC squared slab elements of 500 mm by 500 mm and two-dimensional chloride diffusion using RC squared column elements of 225 mm by 225 mm by 500 mm. Each set consists of three water-to-cement ratios (w/c); 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 and two cover depths; 25 mm and 50 mm. 12 mm bars are used for column elements and 16 mm bars are used for slab elements. All the samples are subjected to accelerated chloride corrosion in a chloride bath of 5% (w/w) sodium chloride (NaCl) solution. Based on a pre-screening of different models, it is clear that the well-selected mathematical model had included mechanical properties, chemical and electrochemical properties, nature of corrosion whether it is accelerated or natural, and the amount of porous area that rust products can accommodate before exerting expansive pressure on the surrounding concrete. The experimental results have shown that the selected model for both one-dimensional and two-dimensional chloride diffusion had ±20% and ±10% respective accuracies compared to the experimental output. The half-cell potential readings are also used to see the corrosion probability, and experimental results have shown that the mass loss is proportional to the negative half-cell potential readings that are obtained. Additionally, a statistical analysis is carried out in order to determine the most influential factor that affects the time to corrode the reinforcement in the concrete due to chloride diffusion. The factors considered for this analysis are w/c, bar diameter, and cover depth. The analysis is accomplished by using Minitab statistical software, and it showed that cover depth is the significant effect on the time to crack the concrete from chloride induced corrosion than other factors considered. Thus, the time predictions can be illustrated through the selected mathematical model as it covers a wide range of factors affecting the corrosion process, and it can be used to predetermine the durability concern of RC structures that are vulnerable to chloride exposure. And eventually, it is further concluded that cover thickness plays a vital role in durability in terms of chloride diffusion.

Keywords: accelerated corrosion, chloride diffusion, corrosion cracks, passivation layer, reinforcement corrosion

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Authors: Segen Asayehegn

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Introduction: In Tigray, Ethiopia, next to cervical cancer, breast cancer is one of the most common cancer health problems for women. Objectives: This article is proposed to identify the prospective and potential risk factors affecting the time-to-first-recurrence of breast cancer patients in Tigray, Ethiopia. Methods: The data were taken from the patient’s medical record that registered from January 2010 to January 2020. The study considered a sample size of 1842 breast cancer patients. Powerful non-parametric and parametric shared frailty survival regression models (FSRM) were applied, and model comparisons were performed. Results: Out of 1842 breast cancer patients, about 1290 (70.02%) recovered/cured the disease. The median cure time from breast cancer is found at 12.8 months. The model comparison suggested that the lognormal parametric shared a frailty survival regression model predicted that treatment, stage of breast cancer, smoking habit, and marital status significantly affects the first recurrence of breast cancer. Conclusion: Factors like treatment, stages of cancer, and marital status were improved while smoking habits worsened the time to cure breast cancer. Recommendation: Thus, the authors recommend reducing breast cancer health problems, the regional health sector facilities need to be improved. More importantly, concerned bodies and medical doctors should emphasize the identified factors during treatment. Furthermore, general awareness programs should be given to the community on the identified factors.

Keywords: acceleration factor, breast cancer, Ethiopia, shared frailty survival models, Tigray

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Seyyed Mohammad Amin Mousavi Sagharchi, Elham Javanroudi

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Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) is a known disease with hidden features caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB). This disease, which is one of the 10 deadliest in the world, has caused millions of deaths in recent decades. Furthermore, TB is responsible for infecting about 30% population of world. Like any infection, TB can activate the immune system by locating and colonization in the human body, especially in the alveoli. TB is granulomatosis, so MTB can absorb the host’s immune cells and other cells to form granuloma. Method: Different databases (e.g., PubMed) were recruited to prepare this paper and fulfill our goals to search and find effective papers and investigations. Results: Immune response to MTB is related to T cell killers and contains CD1, CD4, and CD8 T lymphocytes. CD1 lymphocytes can recognize glycolipids, which highly exist in the Mycobacterial fatty cell wall. CD4 lymphocytes and macrophages form granuloma, and it is the main line of immune response to Mycobacteria. On the other hand, CD8 cells have cytolytic function for directly killing MTB by secretion of granulysin. Other functions and secretion to the deal are interleukin-12 (IL-12) by induction of expression interferon-γ (INF-γ) for macrophages activation and creating a granuloma, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF) by promoting macrophage phagolysosomal fusion. Conclusion: Immune cells in battle with MTB are macrophages, dendritic cells (DCs), neutrophils, and natural killer (NK) cells. These immune cells can recognize the Mycobacterium by various receptors, including Toll-like receptors (TLRs), Nod-like receptors (NLRs), and C-type lectin receptors (CLRs) located in the cell surface. In human alveoli exist about 50 dendritic macrophages, which have close communication with other immune cells in the circulating system and epithelial cells to deal with Mycobacteria. Against immune cells, MTB handles some factors (e.g., cordfactor, O-Ag, lipoarabinomannan, sulfatides, and adenylate cyclase) and practical functions (e.g., inhibition of macrophages).

Keywords: mycobacterium tuberculosis, immune responses, immunological mechanisms, respiratory tuberculosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Tahani Aljohani, Jialin Yu, Alexandra. I. Cristea

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The more an educational system knows about a learner, the more personalised interaction it can provide, which leads to better learning. However, asking a learner directly is potentially disruptive, and often ignored by learners. Especially in the booming realm of MOOC Massive Online Learning platforms, only a very low percentage of users disclose demographic information about themselves. Thus, in this paper, we aim to predict learners’ demographic characteristics, by proposing an approach using linguistically motivated Deep Learning Architectures for Learner Profiling, particularly targeting gender prediction on a FutureLearn MOOC platform. Additionally, we tackle here the difficult problem of predicting the gender of learners based on their comments only – which are often available across MOOCs. The most common current approaches to text classification use the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, considering sentences as sequences. However, human language also has structures. In this research, rather than considering sentences as plain sequences, we hypothesise that higher semantic - and syntactic level sentence processing based on linguistics will render a richer representation. We thus evaluate, the traditional LSTM versus other bleeding edge models, which take into account syntactic structure, such as tree-structured LSTM, Stack-augmented Parser-Interpreter Neural Network (SPINN) and the Structure-Aware Tag Augmented model (SATA). Additionally, we explore using different word-level encoding functions. We have implemented these methods on Our MOOC dataset, which is the most performant one comparing with a public dataset on sentiment analysis that is further used as a cross-examining for the models' results.

Keywords: deep learning, data mining, gender predication, MOOCs

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Authors: Tholokuhle T. Ntshakala, Seraphin D. Eyono Obono

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Nations are still finding it quite difficult to win mega sport competitions despite the major contribution of sport to society in terms of social and economic development, personal health, and in education. Even though the world of sports has been transformed into a huge global economy, it is important to note that the first step of sport is usually its introduction to children at school through physical education or PE. In other words, nations who do not win mega sport competitions also suffer from a weak and neglected PE system. This problem of the neglect of PE systems is the main motivation of this research aimed at examining the factors affecting the perceived awareness of physical education teachers on the ICT's that are adoptable for the teaching and learning of physical education. Two types of research objectives will materialize this aim: relevant theories will be identified in relation to the analysis of the perceived ICT awareness of PE teachers and subsequent models will be compiled and designed from existing literature; the empirical testing of such theories and models will also be achieved through the survey of PE teachers from the Camperdown magisterial district of the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. The main hypothesis at the heart of this study is the relationship between the demographics of PE teachers, their behavior both as individuals and as social entities, and their perceived awareness of the ICTs that are adoptable for PE, as postulated by existing literature; except that this study categorizes human behavior under performance expectancy, computer attitude, and social influence. This hypothesis was partially confirmed by the survey conducted by this research in the sense that performance expectancy and teachers’ age, gender, computer usage, and class size were found to be the only factors affecting their awareness of ICT's for physical education.

Keywords: human behavior, ICT Awareness, physical education, teachers

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Sara Przetocka, Krzysztof Żak, Grzegorz Dubin, Tadeusz Holak

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Toll-like receptors (TLRs) play central role in the innate immune response and inflammation by recognizing pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs). A fundamental basis of TLR signalling is dependent upon the recruitment and association of adaptor molecules that contain the structurally conserved Toll/interleukin-1 receptor (TIR) domain. MyD88 (myeloid differentiation primary response gene 88) is the universal adaptor for TLRs and cooperates with Mal (MyD88 adapter-like protein, also known as TIRAP) in TLR4 response which is predominantly used in inflammation, host defence and carcinogenesis. Up to date two possible models of MyD88, Mal and TLR4 interactions have been proposed. The aim of our studies is to confirm or abolish presented models and accomplish the full structural characterisation of TIR domains interaction. Using molecular cloning methods we obtained several construct of MyD88 and Mal TIR domain with GST or 6xHis tag. Gel filtration method as well as pull-down analysis confirmed that recombinant TIR domains from MyD88 and Mal are binding in complexes. To examine whether obtained complexes are homo- or heterodimers we carried out cross-linking reaction of TIR domains with BS3 compound combined with mass spectrometry. To investigate which amino acid residues are involved in this interaction the NMR titration experiments were performed. 15N MyD88-TIR solution was complemented with non-labelled Mal-TIR. The results undoubtedly indicate that MyD88-TIR interact with Mal-TIR. Moreover 2D spectra demonstrated that simultaneously Mal-TIR self-dimerization occurs which is necessary to create proper scaffold for Mal-TIR and MyD88-TIR interaction. Final step of this study will be crystallization of MyD88 and Mal TIR domains complex. This crystal structure and characterisation of its interface will have an impact in understanding the TLR signalling pathway and possibly will be used in development of new anti-cancer treatment.

Keywords: cancer, MyD88, TIR domains, Toll-like receptors

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Authors: Navneet Singh Deora, Aastha Deswal, H. N. Mishra

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Pasta is one of the most widely consumed food products around the world. Rapid determination of the moisture content in pasta will assist food processors to provide online quality control of pasta during large scale production. Rapid Fourier transform near-infrared method (FT-NIR) was developed for determining moisture content in pasta. A calibration set of 150 samples, a validation set of 30 samples and a prediction set of 25 samples of pasta were used. The diffuse reflection spectra of different types of pastas were measured by FT-NIR analyzer in the 4,000-12,000 cm-1 spectral range. Calibration and validation sets were designed for the conception and evaluation of the method adequacy in the range of moisture content 10 to 15 percent (w.b) of the pasta. The prediction models based on partial least squares (PLS) regression, were developed in the near-infrared. Conventional criteria such as the R2, the root mean square errors of cross validation (RMSECV), root mean square errors of estimation (RMSEE) as well as the number of PLS factors were considered for the selection of three pre-processing (vector normalization, minimum-maximum normalization and multiplicative scatter correction) methods. Spectra of pasta sample were treated with different mathematic pre-treatments before being used to build models between the spectral information and moisture content. The moisture content in pasta predicted by FT-NIR methods had very good correlation with their values determined via traditional methods (R2 = 0.983), which clearly indicated that FT-NIR methods could be used as an effective tool for rapid determination of moisture content in pasta. The best calibration model was developed with min-max normalization (MMN) spectral pre-processing (R2 = 0.9775). The MMN pre-processing method was found most suitable and the maximum coefficient of determination (R2) value of 0.9875 was obtained for the calibration model developed.

Keywords: FT-NIR, pasta, moisture determination, food engineering

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Authors: Sara atibi, Azzeddine Atibi, Salim Ahmed, Khadija El Kababi

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The concept of chemical bonding is fundamental in chemistry education, ubiquitous in school curricula, and essential to numerous topics in the field. Mastery of this concept enables students to predict and explain the physical and chemical properties of substances. However, chemical bonding is often regarded as one of the most complex concepts for secondary and higher education students to comprehend, due to the underlying complex theory and the use of abstract models. Teachers also encounter significant challenges in conveying this concept effectively. This study aims to identify the difficulties and alternative conceptions faced by Moroccan secondary school students in learning about chemical bonding, as well as the pedagogical strategies employed by teachers to overcome these obstacles. A survey was conducted involving 150 Moroccan secondary school physical science teachers, using a structured questionnaire comprising closed, open-ended, and multiple-choice questions. The results reveal frequent student misconceptions, such as the octet rule, molecular geometry, and molecular polarity. Contributing factors to these misconceptions include the abstract nature of the concepts, the use of models, and teachers' difficulties in explaining certain aspects of chemical bonding. The study proposes improvements for teaching chemical bonding, such as integrating information and communication technologies (ICT), diversifying pedagogical tools, and considering students' pre-existing conceptions. These recommendations aim to assist teachers, curriculum developers, and textbook authors in making chemistry more accessible and in addressing students' misconceptions.

Keywords: chemical bonding, alternative conceptions, chemistry education, pedagogical strategies

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Authors: Ada Yurman

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Using the case of Israeli Atomic Spy Mordechai Vanunu as an example, this study sought to examine social response to political deviance whereby social response can be mobilized in order to achieve social control. Mordechai Vanunu, a junior technician in the Dimona Atomic Research Center, played a normative role in the militaristic discourse while working in the “holy shrine” of the Israeli defense system for many years. At a certain stage, however, Vanunu decided to detach himself from this collective and launched an assault on this top-secret circle. Israeli society in general and the security establishment in particular found this attack intolerable and unforgivable. They presented Vanunu as a ticking time bomb, delegitimized him and portrayed him as “other”. In addition, Israeli enforcement authorities imposed myriad prohibitions and sanctions on Vanunu even after his release from prison – “as will be done to he who desecrates holiness.” Social response to Vanunu at the time of his capture and trial was studied by conducting a content analysis of six contemporary daily newspapers. The analysis focused on use of language and forms of expression. In contrast with traditional content analysis methodology, this study did not just look at frequency of expressions of ideas and terms in the text and covert content; rather, the text was analyzed as a structural whole, and included examination of style, tone and unusual use of imagery, and more, in order to uncover hidden messages within the text. The social response to this case was extraordinarily intense, not only because in this case of political deviance, involving espionage and treason, Vanunu’s actions comprised a real potential threat to the country, but also because of the threat his behavior posed to the symbolic universe of society. Therefore, the response to this instance of political deviance can be seen as being part of a mechanism of social control aiming to protect world view of society as a whole, as well as to punish the criminal.

Keywords: militarism, political deviance, social construction, social control

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Authors: Mukunda Upadhyay, Rakesh Mishra, Rajni Singh

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This paper is an attempt to understand the abstract concept of space, citizenship and migration in the north-eastern region. In the twentieth century, researchers and thinkers related citizenship and migration on national models. The national models of jus sulis and jus sangunis provide scope of space and rights to only those who are either born in the territory or either share the common descent. Space ensures rights and citizenship ensures space and for many migrants, citizenship is the ultimate goal in the host country. Migrants with the intention of settling down in the destination region, begin to adapt and assimilate in their new homes. In many cases, migrants may also retain the culture and values of the place of origin. In such cases the difference in the degree of retention and assimilation may determine the chances of conflict between the host society and migrants. Such conflicts are fueled by political aspirations of few individuals on both the sides. The North-Eastern part of India is a mixed community with many linguistic and religious groups sharing a common Geo-political space. Every community has its own unique history, culture and identity. Since the last half of the nineteenth century, this region has been experiencing both internal migration from other states and immigration from the neighboring countries which has resulted in the interactions of various cultures and ethnicities. With the span of time, migration has taken bitter form with problems concentrated around acquiring rights through space and citizenship. Political tensions resulted by host hostility and migrants resistance has ruined the social order in few areas. In order to resolve these issues in this area proper intervention has to be carried out by the involvement of the National and International community.

Keywords: space, citizenship, assimilation, migration, rights

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Authors: Gong Zhilin, Jing Yang, Jian Yin

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The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel system for credit card fraud detection based on sequential modeling of data using hybrid deep learning models. The projected model encapsulates five major phases are pre-processing, imbalance-data handling, feature extraction, optimal feature selection, and fraud detection with an ensemble classifier. The collected raw data (input) is pre-processed to enhance the quality of the data through alleviation of the missing data, noisy data as well as null values. The pre-processed data are class imbalanced in nature, and therefore they are handled effectively with the K-means clustering-based SMOTE model. From the balanced class data, the most relevant features like improved Principal Component Analysis (PCA), statistical features (mean, median, standard deviation) and higher-order statistical features (skewness and kurtosis). Among the extracted features, the most optimal features are selected with the Self-improved Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm (SI-AOA). This SI-AOA model is the conceptual improvement of the standard Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm. The deep learning models like Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and optimized Quantum Deep Neural Network (QDNN). The LSTM and CNN are trained with the extracted optimal features. The outcomes from LSTM and CNN will enter as input to optimized QDNN that provides the final detection outcome. Since the QDNN is the ultimate detector, its weight function is fine-tuned with the Self-improved Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm (SI-AOA).

Keywords: credit card, data mining, fraud detection, money transactions

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Authors: Merve Sagiroglu

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The earthquake-resistant steel structure design is required taking into account the behavior of beam-column connections besides the basic properties of the structure such as material and geometry. Beam-column connections play an important role in the behavior of frame systems. Taking into account the behaviour of connection in analysis and design of steel frames is important due to presenting the actual behavior of frames. So, the behavior of the connections should be well known. The most important force which transmitted by connections in the structural system is the moment. The rotational deformation is customarily expressed as a function of the moment in the connection. So, the moment-rotation curves are the best expression of behaviour of the beam-to-column connections. The designed connections form various moment-rotation curves according to the elements of connection and the shape of placement. The only way to achieve this curve is with real-scale experiments. The experiments of some connections have been carried out partially and are formed in the databank. It has been formed the models using this databank to express the behavior of connection. In this study, theoretical studies have been carried out to model a real behavior of the top and seat angles connections with angles. Two stiffeners in the top and seat angle to increase the stiffness of the connection, and two stiffeners in the beam web to prevent local buckling are used in this beam-to-column connection. Mathematical models have been performed using the database of the beam-to-column connection experiments previously by authors. Using the data of the tests, it has been aimed that analytical expressions have been developed to obtain the moment-rotation curve for the connection details whose test data are not available. The connection has been dimensioned in various shapes and the effect of the dimensions of the connection elements on the behavior has been examined.

Keywords: top and seat angle connection, stiffener, moment-rotation curves, analytical study

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Authors: Nicolás Clavijo Buriticá, Laura Viviana Triana Sanchez

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This research develops a productive context associated with the aquaculture industry in northern Tolima-Colombia, specifically in the town of Lerida. Strategic aspects of chain of fish Production-Distribution, especially those related to supply network design of an association devoted to cultivating, farming, processing and marketing of fish are addressed. This research is addressed from a special approach of Supply Chain Management (SCM) which guides management objectives to the system sustainability; this approach is called Sustainable Supply Chain Management (SSCM). The network design of fish production-distribution system is obtained for the case study by two mathematical programming models that aims to maximize the economic benefits of the chain and minimize total supply chain costs, taking into account restrictions to protect the environment and its implications on system productivity. The results of the mathematical models validated in the productive situation of the partnership under study, called Asopiscinorte shows the variation in the number of open or closed locations in the supply network that determines the final network configuration. This proposed result generates for the case study an increase of 31.5% in the partial productivity of storage and processing, in addition to possible favorable long-term implications, such as attending an agile or not a consumer area, increase or not the level of sales in several areas, to meet in quantity, time and cost of work in progress and finished goods to various actors in the chain.

Keywords: Sustainable Supply Chain, mathematical programming, aquaculture industry, Supply Chain Design, Supply Chain Configuration

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Authors: Alessandro Preziosi, Antonio Prioletti, Luca Castangia

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Deformable part models achieve high precision in pedestrian recognition, but all publicly available implementations are too slow for real-time applications. We implemented a deformable part model algorithm fast enough for real-time use by exploiting information about the camera position and orientation. This implementation is both faster and more precise than alternative DPM implementations. These results are obtained by computing convolutions in the frequency domain and using lookup tables to speed up feature computation. This approach is almost an order of magnitude faster than the reference DPM implementation, with no loss in precision. Knowing the position of the camera with respect to horizon it is also possible prune many hypotheses based on their size and location. The range of acceptable sizes and positions is set by looking at the statistical distribution of bounding boxes in labelled images. With this approach it is not needed to compute the entire feature pyramid: for example higher resolution features are only needed near the horizon. This results in an increase in mean average precision of 5% and an increase in speed by a factor of two. Furthermore, to reduce misdetections involving small pedestrians near the horizon, input images are supersampled near the horizon. Supersampling the image at 1.5 times the original scale, results in an increase in precision of about 4%. The implementation was tested against the public KITTI dataset, obtaining an 8% improvement in mean average precision over the best performing DPM-based method. By allowing for a small loss in precision computational time can be easily brought down to our target of 100ms per image, reaching a solution that is faster and still more precise than all publicly available DPM implementations.

Keywords: autonomous vehicles, deformable part model, dpm, pedestrian detection, real time

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Authors: Kateryna Zharan, Jan C. Bongaerts

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Mining operations are energy intensive, and the share of energy costs in total costs is often quoted in the range of 40 %. Saving on energy costs is, therefore, a key element of any mine operator. With the improving reliability and security of renewable energy (RE) sources, and requirements to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, perspectives for using RE in mining operations emerge. These aspects are stimulating the mining companies to search for ways to substitute fossil energy with RE. Hereby, the main purpose of this study is to present the survey research assessment in matter of finding out the key issues related to the integration of RE into mining activities, based on the mining and renewable energy experts’ opinion. The purpose of the paper is to present the outcomes of a survey conducted among mining and renewable energy experts about the feasibility of RE in mining operations. The survey research has been developed taking into consideration the following categories: first of all, the mining and renewable energy experts were chosen based on the specific criteria. Secondly, they were offered a questionnaire to gather their knowledge and opinions on incentives for mining operators to turn to RE, barriers and challenges to be expected, environmental effects, appropriate business models and the overall impact of RE on mining operations. The outcomes of the survey allow for the identification of factors which favor and disfavor decision-making on the use of RE in mining operations. It concludes with a set of recommendations for further study. One of them relates to a deeper analysis of benefits for mining operators when using RE, and another one suggests that appropriate business models considering economic and environmental issues need to be studied and developed. The results of the paper will be used for developing a hybrid optimized model which might be adopted at mines according to their operation processes as well as economic and environmental perspectives.

Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions, mining industry, photovoltaic, renewable energy, survey research, wind generation

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Authors: Maria Lazari, Lorenzo Sanavia

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Mechanics of unsaturated soils has been an active field of research in the last decades. Efficient constitutive models that take into account the partial saturation of soil are necessary to solve a number of engineering problems e.g. instability of slopes and cuts due to heavy rainfalls. A large number of constitutive models can now be found in the literature that considers fundamental issues associated with the unsaturated soil behaviour, like the volume change and shear strength behaviour with suction or saturation changes. Partially saturated soils may either expand or collapse upon wetting depending on the stress level, and it is also possible that a soil might experience a reversal in the volumetric behaviour during wetting. Shear strength of soils also changes dramatically with changes in the degree of saturation, and a related engineering problem is slope failures caused by rainfall. There are several states of the art reviews over the last years for studying the topic, usually providing a thorough discussion of the stress state, the advantages, and disadvantages of specific constitutive models as well as the latest developments in the area of unsaturated soil modelling. However, only a few studies focused on the coupling between partial saturation states and time effects on the behaviour of geomaterials. Rate dependency is experimentally observed in the mechanical response of granular materials, and a viscoplastic constitutive model is capable of reproducing creep and relaxation processes. Therefore, in this work an elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model for unsaturated soils is proposed and validated on the basis of experimental data. The model constitutes an extension of an existing elastoplastic strain-hardening constitutive model capable of capturing the behaviour of variably saturated soils, based on energy conjugated stress variables in the framework of superposed continua. The purpose was to develop a model able to deal with possible mechanical instabilities within a consistent energy framework. The model shares the same conceptual structure of the elastoplastic laws proposed to deal with bonded geomaterials subject to weathering or diagenesis and is capable of modelling several kinds of instabilities induced by the loss of hydraulic bonding contributions. The novelty of the proposed formulation is enhanced with the incorporation of density dependent stiffness and hardening coefficients in order to allow the modeling of the pycnotropy behaviour of granular materials with a single set of material constants. The model has been implemented in the commercial FE platform PLAXIS, widely used in Europe for advanced geotechnical design. The algorithmic strategies adopted for the stress-point algorithm had to be revised to take into account the different approach adopted by PLAXIS developers in the solution of the discrete non-linear equilibrium equations. An extensive comparison between models with a series of experimental data reported by different authors is presented to validate the model and illustrate the capability of the newly developed model. After the validation, the effectiveness of the viscoplastic model is displayed by numerical simulations of a partially saturated slope failure of the laboratory scale and the effect of viscosity and degree of saturation on slope’s stability is discussed.

Keywords: PLAXIS software, slope, unsaturated soils, Viscoplasticity

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Authors: Juan de Ona, Esperanza Estevez, Rocío de Ona

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Urban traffic levels can be reduced by drawing travelers away from private vehicles over to using public transport. This modal change can be achieved by either introducing restrictions on private vehicles or by introducing measures which increase people’s satisfaction with public transport. For public transport users, quality of service affects customer satisfaction, which, in turn, influences the behavioral intentions towards the service. This paper intends to identify the main attributes which influence the perception private vehicle users have about the public transport services provided in five European cities: Berlin, Lisbon, London, Madrid and Rome. Ordinal logit models have been applied to an online panel survey with a sample size of 2,500 regular private vehicle users (approximately 500 inhabitants per city). To achieve a comprehensive analysis and to deal with heterogeneity in perceptions, 15 models have been developed for the entire sample and 14 user segments. The results show differences between the cities and among the segments. Madrid was taken as reference city and results indicate that the inhabitants are satisfied with public transport in Madrid and that the most important public transport service attributes for private vehicle users are frequency, speed and intermodality. Frequency is an important attribute for all the segments, while speed and intermodality are important for most of the segments. An analysis by segments has identified attributes which, although not important in most cases, are relevant for specific segments. This study also points out important differences between the five cities. Findings from this study can be used to develop policies and recommendations for persuading.

Keywords: service quality, satisfaction, public transportation, private vehicle users, car users, segmentation, ordered logit

Procedia PDF Downloads 103