Search results for: forces estimation

Authors: José de Jesús Rivero Oliva, Jesús Salomón Llanes, Manuel Perdomo Ojeda, Antonio Torres Valle

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Combinatorial explosion is a common problem to both predominant methods for solving fault trees: Minimal Cut Set (MCS) approach and Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). High memory consumption impedes the complete solution of very complex fault trees. Only approximated non-conservative solutions are possible in these cases using truncation or other simplification techniques. The paper proposes a method (CSolv+) for solving complex fault trees, without any possibility of combinatorial explosion. Each individual MCS is immediately discarded after its contribution to the basic events importance measures and the Top gate Upper Bound Probability (TUBP) has been accounted. An estimation of the Top gate Exact Probability (TEP) is also provided. Therefore, running in a computer cluster, CSolv+ will guarantee the complete solution of complex fault trees. It was successfully applied to 40 fault trees from the Aralia fault trees database, performing the evaluation of the top gate probability, the 1000 Significant MCSs (SMCS), and the Fussell-Vesely, RRW and RAW importance measures for all basic events. The high complexity fault tree nus9601 was solved with truncation probabilities from 10-²¹ to 10-²⁷ just to limit the execution time. The solution corresponding to 10-²⁷ evaluated 3.530.592.796 MCSs in 3 hours and 15 minutes.

Keywords: system reliability analysis, probabilistic risk assessment, fault tree analysis, basic events importance measures

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Authors: Shimaa Mahmoud Ali Ahmed, Boshra Tawfek El-Shreef

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Sustainable development has become an important concern worldwide, and climate change has become a global threat. Some of these affect how we approach environmental issues — and how we should approach them. Environmental aspects have an important impact on the built environment, that’s why knowledge about Green Building and Green Construction become a vital dimension of urban sustainable development to face the challenges of climate change. There are several levels of green buildings, from energy-efficient lighting to 100% eco-friendly construction; the concept of green buildings in Egypt is still a rare occurrence, with the concept being relatively new to the market. There are several projects on the ground that currently employing sustainable and green solutions to some extent, some of them achieve a limit of success and others fail to employ the new solutions. The market and the cost as well, are great factors. From the last century, green architecture and environmental sustainability become a famous trend that all the researchers like to follow. Nowadays, the trend towards green has shifted to housing and real estate projects. While the environmental aspects are the key to achieve green buildings, the economic benefits, and the market forces are considered as big challenges. The paper assumes that some appropriate environmental treatments could be added to the applied prototype of the governmental social housing projects in Egypt to achieve better environmental solutions. The aim of the research is to get housing projects in Egypt closer to the track of sustainable and green buildings, through making a local future proposal to be integrated into the current policies. The proposed model is based upon adding some appropriate, cheap environmental modifications to the prototype of the Ministry of Housing, Infrastructure, and New Urban Communities. The research is based on an analytical, comparative analytical, and inductive approach to study and analyze the housing projects in Egypt and the possibilities of integrating green techniques into it.

Keywords: green buildings, urban sustainability, housing projects, sustainable development goals, Egypt 2030

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Authors: Saima Iftikhar Rida Shabbir, Zeeshan Hassan

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Water shortage, energy crisis and natural misfortunes are the glitches which reduce the efficacy of agricultural ecosystems especially in Pakistan where these are more frequent besides being intense. Accordingly, the agricultural water resources, food security and country’s economy are at risk. To address this, we have used Geospatial techniques incorporating ASTER Global DEM, Geological map, rainfall data, discharge data, Landsat 5 image of Swat valley in order to assess the viability of selected sites. The sites have been studied via GIS tools, Hydrological investigation and multiparametric analysis for their potentialities of collecting and securing the rain water; regulating floods by storing the surplus water bulks by check dams and developing them for power generation. Our results showed that Siat1-1 was very useful for low-cost dam with main objective of as Debris dam; Site-2 and Site 3 were check dams sites having adequate storing reservoir so as to arrest the inconsistent flow accompanied by catering the sedimentation effects and the debris flows; Site 4 had a huge reservoir capacity but it entails enormous edifice cost over very great flood plain. Thus, there is necessity of active Hydrological developments to estimate the flooded area using advanced and multifarious GIS and remote sensing approaches so that the sites could be developed for harnessing those sites for agricultural and energy drives.

Keywords: site suitability, check dams, SHP, terrain analysis, volume estimation

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Authors: Bruno de Almeida Vilela, Heinz Ahn, Ana Lúcia Miranda Lopes, Marcelo Azevedo Costa

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Benchmarking public utilities such as transmission system operators (TSOs) is one of the main strategies employed by regulators in order to fix monopolistic companies’ revenues. Since 2007 the Brazilian regulator has been utilizing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to benchmark TSOs. Despite the application of DEA to improve the transmission sector’s efficiency, some problems can be pointed out, such as the high price of electricity in Brazil; the limitation of the benchmarking only to operational expenses (OPEX); the absence of variables that represent the outcomes of the transmission service; and the presence of extremely low and high efficiencies. As an alternative to the current concept of benchmarking the Brazilian regulator uses, we propose a goal-oriented approach. Our proposal supports input/output selection by taking traditional organizational goals and measures as a basis for the selection of factors for benchmarking purposes. As the main advantage, it resolves the classical DEA problems of input/output selection, undesirable and dual-role factors. We also provide a demonstration of our goal-oriented concept regarding service quality. As a result, most TSOs’ efficiencies in Brazil might improve when considering quality as important in their efficiency estimation.

Keywords: decision making, goal-oriented benchmarking, input/output factor determination, TSO regulation

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Authors: Spandan Sahu, Amiya Kumar Pati, Kishanjit Kumar Khatua

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River is the main source of water. It is a form of natural open channel which gives rise to many complex phenomenon of sciences that needs to be tackled such as the critical flow conditions, boundary shear stress and depth averaged velocity. The development of society more or less solely depends upon the flow of rivers. The rivers are major sources of many sediments and specific ingredients which are much essential for human beings. During floods, part of a river is carried by the simple main channel and rest is carried by flood plains. For such compound asymmetric channels, the flow structure becomes complicated due to momentum exchange between main channel and adjoining flood plains. Distribution of boundary shear in subsections provides us with the concept of momentum transfer between the interface of main channel and the flood plains. Experimentally, to get better data with accurate results are very complex because of the complexity of the problem. Hence, Conveyance Estimation System (CES) software has been used to tackle the complex processes to determine the shear stresses at different sections of an open channel having asymmetric flood plains on both sides of the main channel and the results are compared with the symmetric flood plains for various geometrical shapes and flow conditions. Error analysis is also performed to know the degree of accuracy of the model implemented.

Keywords: depth average velocity, non prismatic compound channel, relative flow depth , velocity distribution

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Authors: Loubna Hamami, Bouchaib Nassereddine

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Due to the evolution of technologies, the need to observe and manage hostile environments, and reduction in size, wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are becoming essential and implicated in the most fields of life. WSNs enable us to change the style of living, working and interacting with the physical environment. The agricultural sector is one of such sectors where WSNs are successfully used to get various benefits. For successful agricultural production, the irrigation system is one of the most important factors, and it plays a tactical role in the process of agriculture domain. However, it is considered as the largest consumer of freshwater. Besides, the scarcity of water, the drought, the waste of the limited available water resources are among the critical issues that touch the almost sectors, notably agricultural services. These facts are leading all governments around the world to rethink about saving water and reducing the volume of water used; this requires the development of irrigation practices in order to have a complete and independent system that is more efficient in the management of irrigation. Consequently, the selection of WSNs in irrigation system has been a benefit for developing the agriculture sector. In this work, we propose a prototype for a complete and intelligent irrigation system based on wireless sensor networks and we present and discuss the design of this prototype. This latter aims at saving water, energy and time. The proposed prototype controls water system for irrigation by monitoring the soil temperature, soil moisture and weather conditions for estimation of water requirements of each plant.

Keywords: precision irrigation, sensor, wireless sensor networks, water resources

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Authors: Kashif Nesar Rather, Mantu Kumar Mahalik

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The discourse surrounding climate change has gained considerable traction, with a discernible emphasis on its nuanced and consequential impact on gender inequality. Concurrently, escalating global tensions are contributing to heightened uncertainty, potentially exerting influence on gender disparities. Within this framework, this study attempts to empirically investigate the implications of climate change and world uncertainty on the gender inequality for a balanced panel of 100 economies between 1995 to 2021. The estimated models also control for the effects of globalisation, economic growth, and education expenditure. The panel cointegration tests establish a significant long-run relationship between the variables of the study. Furthermore, the PMG-ARDL (Panel mean group-Autoregressive distributed lag model) estimation technique confirms that both climate change and world uncertainty perpetuate the global gender inequalities. Additionally, the results establish that globalisation, economic growth, and education expenditure exert a mitigating influence on gender inequality, signifying their role in diminishing gender disparities. These findings are further confirmed by the FGLS (Feasible Generalized Least Squares) and DKSE (Driscoll-Kraay Standard Errors) regression methods. Potential policy implications for mitigating the detrimental gender ramifications stemming from climate change and rising world uncertainties are also discussed.

Keywords: gender inequality, world uncertainty, climate change, globalisation., ecological footprint

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Authors: M. Hussaina, K. Mahboobb, S. Z. Ilyasa, S. Shaheena

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Plume dispersion modeling is a computational procedure to establish a relationship between emissions, meteorology, atmospheric concentrations, deposition and other factors. The emission characteristics (stack height, stack diameter, release velocity, heat contents, chemical and physical properties of the gases/particle released etc.), terrain (surface roughness, local topography, nearby buildings) and meteorology (wind speed, stability, mixing height, etc.) are required for the modeling of the plume dispersion and estimation of ground and air concentration. During the early phase of Fukushima accident, plume dispersion modeling and decisions were taken for the implementation of protective measures. A difference in estimated results and decisions made by different countries for taking protective actions created a concern in local and international community regarding the exact identification of the safe zone. The current study is focused to highlight the importance of accurate and exact weather data availability, scientific approach for decision making for taking urgent protective actions, compatible and harmonized approach for plume dispersion modeling during a nuclear emergency. As a case study, the influence of meteorological data on plume dispersion modeling and decision-making process has been performed.

Keywords: decision making process, radiation doses, nuclear emergency, meteorological implications

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Authors: Golayeh Yousefi, Mehdi Homaee, Ali Akbar Norouzi

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Ongoing monitoring of soil contamination by heavy metals is critical for ecosystem stability and environmental protection, and food security. The conventional methods of determining these soil contaminants are time-consuming and costly. Spectroscopy in the visible near-infrared (VNIR) - short wave infrared (SWIR) region is a rapid, non-destructive, noninvasive, and cost-effective method for assessment of soil heavy metals concentration by studying the spectral properties of soil constituents. The aim of this study is to derive spectral bands and important ranges that are sensitive to heavy metals and can be used to estimate the concentration of these soil contaminants. In other words, the change in the spectral properties of spectrally active constituents of soil can lead to the accurate identification and estimation of the concentration of these compounds in soil. For this purpose, 325 soil samples were collected, and their spectral reflectance curves were evaluated at a range of 350-2500 nm. After spectral preprocessing operations, the partial least-squares regression (PLSR) model was fitted on spectral data to predict the concentration of Cu and Ni. Based on the results, the spectral range of Cu- sensitive spectra were 480, 580-610, 1370, 1425, 1850, 1920, 2145, and 2200 nm, and Ni-sensitive ranges were 543, 655, 761, 1003, 1271, 1415, 1903, 2199 nm. Finally, the results of this study indicated that the spectral data contains a lot of information that can be applied to identify the soil properties, such as the concentration of heavy metals, with more detail.

Keywords: heavy metals, spectroscopy, spectral bands, PLS regression

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Authors: Semayat Fanta, P.M. Mohite, C.S. Upadhyay

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Damage meso-model for laminates is one of the most widely applicable approaches for the analysis of damage induced in laminated fiber-reinforced polymeric composites. Damage meso-model for laminates has been developed over the last three decades by many researchers in experimental, theoretical, and analytical methods that have been carried out in micromechanics as well as meso-mechanics analysis approaches. It has been fundamentally developed based on the micromechanical description that aims to predict the damage initiation and evolution until the failure of structure in various loading conditions. The current damage meso-model for laminates aimed to act as a bridge between micromechanics and macro-mechanics of the laminated composite structure. This model considers two meso-constituents for the analysis of damage in ply and interface that imparted from low-velocity impact. The damages considered in this study include fiber breakage, matrix cracking, and diffused damage of the lamina, and delamination of the interface. The damage initiation and evolution in laminae can be modeled in terms of damaged strain energy density using damage parameters and the thermodynamic irreversible forces. Interface damage can be modeled with a new concept of spherical micro-void in the resin-rich zone of interface material. The damage evolution is controlled by the damage parameter (d) and the radius of micro-void (r) from the point of damage nucleation to its saturation. The constitutive martial model for meso-constituents is defined in a user material subroutine VUMAT and implemented in ABAQUS/Explicit finite element modeling tool. The model predicts the damages in the meso-constituents level very accurately and is considered the most effective technique of modeling low-velocity impact simulation for laminated composite structures.

Keywords: mesomodel, laminate, low-energy impact, micromechanics

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Authors: N. V. Klassen, A. A. Vasin, A. M. Likhter, K. A. Voronin, A. V. Mariasevskaya, I. M. Shmit’ko

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Regular patterning in mixtures of bio-polymers (chitosan and collagen) and nanoparticles in water suspensions has been found by means of optical microscopy. The patterning was created either by external electrical field of moderate amplitude (200–1000 v/cm) or spontaneously. Simultaneously with the patterning pushing out of water drops mixed with nanoparticles to the external regions was observed. These phenomena are explained by interactions of charged bio-polymers and nanoparticles with external and internal electrical fields as well as with the regions of decreased dielectrical permittivity surrounding nano-objects in water which possesses anomalously high dielectrical permittivity. Electrical charges of opposite signs of the nano-objects induce their mutual attraction whereas dipole moments created around these nano-objects by the electrical fields are pushing these particles to the regions with lower fields. Due to this reason, non-homogeneities of dielectrical permittivity around nano-objects immersed into water suspension induces mutual repulsion of the objects. This spatial decrease of this repulsion with the inter-particle distances is more sharp than that of the Coulomb attraction. So, at longer distances, the attractions are stronger whereas at shorter distances the repulsion prevails. At a certain distance these two forces compensate each other creating the equilibrium state of the mixture of nano-objects with opposite charges. When the groups of positive and negative nano-objects consist from identical particles, quasi-periodical pattern of the suspension is observed like mesoscopic two-dimensional super-crystal. These results can clarify the mechanisms of healing of internal organs with direct or alternative electrical fields.

Keywords: bio-polymers, chitosan, collagen, nanoparticles, Coulomb attraction, polarization repulsion, periodical patterning, electrical low frequency resonances

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Authors: Noor Aliza Binti Ahmad, Azra Munirah Mat Daud, Sabariah Musa, Mohamad Azhar MK

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Flooding is a common natural disaster in Malaysia triggered by heavy rainfall. Urbanization that increases the construction of paved areas, subsequently raise surface runoff and reduce time of concentration. It increases flood magnitude and so that leads to greater flood problems as what has happened at Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM) area in December 2006 and earlier 2007. Tasik Kemajuan and Tasik Inovasi were constructed as recreation ponds and have also functioned as flood ponds. Unfortunately, the flood problem still occurs persistently. Thus, the effectiveness of Tasik Kemajuan and Tasik Inovasi in reducing the flood problems need to be investigated and the causes of flood events at UTHM Campus need to be evaluated. The results from this study show that the conditions of Tasik Kemajuan and Tasik Inovasi are effective in reducing the flood water levels. It also can be concluded that increasing water level in both lakes in UTHM Campus are significantly influenced by presence of the grass and rubbish. During dry condition, the flow rates with three different days are 59.38m3/s, 60.71m3/s and 59.08m3/s and while for wet condition in two different days are 89.59 m3/s and 86.61m3/s. In conclusion, this system should be improved to prevent future flooding either widened or reduced drainage floor, and also perform maintenance on the plants that live around the lake.

Keywords: drainage system, flood detention, lakes, storm water

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Authors: Shaho Ghafur Ahmed

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The right to self-determination of peoples is a fundamental human right recognized by the principles of international law. It could be embodied in the internal level in the form of federalism. Most federal constitutions prevented the secession of constituent entities, while some remained silent, as the case of Iraq, and rare instances of them recognize it. But, after the failure of federalism, these entities seek to separate whenever the opportunity arises. In several cases, they have resort to peaceful methods in some others they resort to force. The constitutional Supreme Court, which guaranty the unity and integrity of the State, often prevent these attempts. After not a commitment of federalism in Iraq, which has been founded since 2004, the Kurdistan region, as the only federated entity, has conducted a unilateral referendum on 25 September 2017 for its independence. The Iraqi government refused it. The Iraqi Federal Supreme Court, through interpreting the constitutional provisions, decided that this referendum and it’s purposes, which was the independence of the region, was unconstitutional. Subsequently, the Iraqi government used forces and blockaded the region so as to force it to turn off this process. So, in this paper, the right to self-determination of the peoples in federated entities and its obstacles will be discussed through the comparative legal basis and analyzing the decisions of the Federal Constitutional Courts. We will compare the role that the Supreme Court of Canada played regarding the referendum that operated in Quebec in 1995, in which it refused only the unilaterally attempts for the independence of this province. While, in the case of the Kurdistan region, the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court has definitively refused this right. No measures were taken by this Court to protect the region from the Iraqi government reactions. This decision led to the questioning of the neutrality of this Court. So, from the point of view of the Kurdistan region, this Court became a political instrument to prevent it to be independent in the international community, in the absence of a clear constitutional provision, through an abstract and an incomplete interpretation of federal constitutional provisions.

Keywords: right of self-determination, federal supreme court, supremacy of federal constitution

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Mohammad Bqoor, Mohammad Hamdan, Isam Janajreh, Sufian Abedrabbo

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This extensive theoretical study on a novel Ionized Gas Thermoelectric Generator (IG-TEG) system has shown the ability of continuous energy extracting from the thermal energy of ambient air around standard room temperature and even below. This system does not need a temperature gradient in order to work, unlike the other TEGs that use the Seebeck effect, and therefore this new system can be utilized in sustainable energy systems, as well as in green cooling solutions, by extracting energy instead of wasting energy in compressing the gas for cooling. This novel system was designed based on Static Ratchet Potential (SRP), which is known as a spatially asymmetric electric potential produced by an array of positive and negative electrodes. The ratchet potential produces an electrical current from the random Brownian Motion of charged particles that are driven by thermal energy. The key parameter of the system is particle transportation, and it was studied under the condition of flashing ratchet potentials utilizing several methods and examined experimentally, ensuring its functionality. In this study, a different approach is pursued to estimate particle transportation by evaluating the charged particle distribution and applying the other conditions of the SRP, and showing continued energy harvesting potency from the particles’ transportation. Ultimately, power levels of 10 Watt proved to be achievable from a 1 m long system tube of 10 cm radius.

Keywords: thermoelectric generator, ratchet potential, Brownian ratchet, energy harvesting, sustainable energy, green technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Yasser Almazrua

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Terrorism is a multidimensional phenomenon that has increased recently. Many countries started combating terrorism through security forces; however, there has been relatively little attention given to rehabilitation programs for people involved in such terrorism acts. In Saudi Arabia, after facing so many terrorist attacks, they started understanding and countering terrorism differently by establishing Mohammad bin Naif Counselling and Care Center in 2006. The center now is considered one of the top experience centers in the world for terrorist rehabilitation and ideology correction. The center offers different programs such as training, educational, social, art and psychological programs. One of the approaches that have been used by psychological experts at the center is Narrative Therapy. It is a therapeutic approach that focuses on the ability of the client to identify their personal life story. The client during therapy works as a storyteller where he or she gets insight, meaning and better understanding of their own lives. Because each client at the center had a story, it can be better fit method for rehabilitation towards healing and personal development. The case describes a 34-years-old man who was involved in some terrorism activities locally by technically and financially supporting a terrorist group related to Al-Qaida. The beneficiary joined Mohammad bin Naif Counseling and Care Center after serving his sentence. Informed of consent has been given to the beneficiary before starting the therapeutic program. Both qualitative and quantitative data on the beneficiary are collected by self-reporting during the initial session, and by using a psychological measurement. The result found that the beneficiary was not insightful about himself, and he had a high level of repression which relatedly moved him to be targeted for recruitment in the terrorist group. With rehabilitation and by using the therapeutic approach, the beneficiary improved on the level of insight, specifically about himself and also about the experience. This case illustrates the importance of considering the effect of Narrative Therapy in terrorist rehabilitation programs.

Keywords: narrative therapy, rehabilitation, Saudi Arabia, terrorism

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Authors: Ajai Singh

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Simulation of hydrological processes at the watershed outlet through modelling approach is essential for proper planning and implementation of appropriate soil conservation measures in Damodar Barakar catchment, Hazaribagh, India where soil erosion is a dominant problem. This study quantifies the parametric uncertainty involved in simulation of stream flow using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed scale model and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN), an artificial neural network model. Both the models were calibrated and validated based on measured stream flow and quantification of the uncertainty in SWAT model output was assessed using ‘‘Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm’’ (SUFI-2). Though both the model predicted satisfactorily, but RBNN model performed better than SWAT with R2 and NSE values of 0.92 and 0.92 during training, and 0.71 and 0.70 during validation period, respectively. Comparison of the results of the two models also indicates a wider prediction interval for the results of the SWAT model. The values of P-factor related to each model shows that the percentage of observed stream flow values bracketed by the 95PPU in the RBNN model as 91% is higher than the P-factor in SWAT as 87%. In other words the RBNN model estimates the stream flow values more accurately and with less uncertainty. It could be stated that RBNN model based on simple input could be used for estimation of monthly stream flow, missing data, and testing the accuracy and performance of other models.

Keywords: SWAT, RBNN, SUFI 2, bootstrap technique, stream flow, simulation

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Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

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Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to preventing deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network.

Keywords: accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, k-mean, road safety

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Authors: Feng Yang

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Machine learning (ML), especially deep learning (DL), has been extensively applied to many applications in recently years and gained great success in solving different problems, including scientific problems. However, conventional ML/DL methodologies are purely data-driven which have the limitations, such as need of ample amount of labelled training data, lack of consistency to physical principles, and lack of generalizability to new problems/domains. Recently, there is a growing consensus that ML models need to further take advantage of prior knowledge to deal with these limitations. Physics-informed machine learning, aiming at integration of physics/domain knowledge into ML, has been recognized as an emerging area of research, especially in the recent 2 to 3 years. In this work, physics-informed ML, specifically physics-informed neural network (NN), is employed and implemented to estimate the displacements at x, y, z directions in a solid mechanics problem that is controlled by equilibrium equations with boundary conditions. By incorporating the physics (i.e. the equilibrium equations) into the learning process of NN, it is showed that the NN can be trained very efficiently with a small set of labelled training data. Experiments with different settings of the NN model and the amount of labelled training data were conducted, and the results show that very high accuracy can be achieved in fulfilling the equilibrium equations as well as in predicting the displacements, e.g. in setting the overall displacement of 0.1, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.09 × 10−4 was achieved.

Keywords: deep learning, neural network, physics-informed machine learning, solid mechanics

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Authors: Dinebari Akpee, Friday Aabe Gaage, Florence Fred Nwaigwu

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Natural disasters like flood affect many parts of the world including developing countries like Nigeria. As a result, many human lives are lost, properties damaged and so much money is lost in infrastructure damages. These hazards and losses can be mitigated and reduced by providing reliable spatial information to the generality of the people through about flood risks through flood inundation maps. Flood inundation maps are very crucial for emergency action plans, urban planning, ecological studies and insurance rates. Nigeria experience her worst flood in her entire history this year. Many cities were submerged and completely under water due to torrential rainfall. Poor city planning, lack of effective development control among others contributes to the problem too. Geographic information system (GIS) can be used to visualize the extent of flooding, analyze flood maps to produce flood damaged estimation maps and flood risk maps. In this research, the under listed steps were taken in preparation of flood risk maps for the study area: (1) Digitization of topographic data and preparation of digital elevation model using ArcGIS (2) Flood simulation using hydraulic model and integration and (3) Integration of the first two steps to produce flood risk maps. The results shows that GIS can play crucial role in Flood disaster control and mitigation.

Keywords: flood disaster, risk maps, geographic information system, hazards

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Authors: Meziane Rachid, Boufala Seddik, Hamzi Amar, Amara Mohamed

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Today’s energy industry seeks maximum benefit with maximum reliability. In order to achieve this goal, design engineers depend on reliability optimization techniques. This work uses a harmony search algorithm (HS) meta-heuristic optimization method to solve the problem of wind-Solar-Gas power systems design optimization. We consider the case where redundant electrical components are chosen to achieve a desirable level of reliability. The electrical power components of the system are characterized by their cost, capacity and reliability. The reliability is considered in this work as the ability to satisfy the consumer demand which is represented as a piecewise cumulative load curve. This definition of the reliability index is widely used for power systems. The proposed meta-heuristic seeks for the optimal design of series-parallel power systems in which a multiple choice of wind generators, transformers and lines are allowed from a list of product available in the market. Our approach has the advantage to allow electrical power components with different parameters to be allocated in electrical power systems. To allow fast reliability estimation, a universal moment generating function (UMGF) method is applied. A computer program has been developed to implement the UMGF and the HS algorithm. An illustrative example is presented.

Keywords: reliability optimization, harmony search optimization (HSA), universal generating function (UMGF)

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Authors: S. Fominow, C. Dobert

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The present article describes the research that deals with the development of equivalent geometric imperfections for the stability design of steel members considering lateral-torsional buckling. The application of these equivalent imperfections takes into account the stiffness-reducing effects due to inelasticity and residual stresses, which lead to a reduction of the load carrying capacity of slender members and structures. This allows the application of a simplified design method, that is performed in three steps. Application of equivalent geometric imperfections, determination of internal forces using geometrical non-linear analysis (GNIA) and verification of the cross-section resistance at the most unfavourable location. All three verification steps are closely related and influence the results. The derivation of the equivalent imperfections was carried out in several steps. First, reference lateral-torsional buckling resistances for various rolled I-sections, slenderness grades, load shapes and steel grades were determined. This was done either with geometric and material non-linear analysis with geometrical imperfections and residual stresses (GMNIA) or for standard cases based on the equivalent member method. With the aim of obtaining identical lateral-torsional buckling resistances as the reference resistances from the application of the design method, the required sizes for equivalent imperfections were derived. For this purpose, a program based on the FEM method has been developed. Based on these results, several proposals for the specification of equivalent geometric imperfections have been developed. These differ in the shape of the applied equivalent geometric imperfection, the model of the cross-sectional resistance and the steel grade. The proposed design methods allow a wide range of applications and a reliable calculation of the lateral-torsional buckling resistances, as comparisons between the calculated resistances and the reference resistances have shown.

Keywords: equivalent geometric imperfections, GMNIA, lateral-torsional buckling, non-linear finite element analysis

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Authors: Akram Khelaifia, Salah Guettala, Nesreddine Djafar Henni, Rachid Chebili

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Reinforced concrete shear walls are pivotal in protecting buildings from seismic forces by providing strength and stiffness. This study highlights the importance of strategically placing shear walls and optimizing the shear wall-to-floor area ratio in building design. Nonlinear analyses were conducted on an eight-story building situated in a high seismic zone, exploring various scenarios of shear wall positioning and ratios to floor area. Employing the performance-based seismic design (PBSD) approach, the study aims to meet acceptance criteria such as inter-story drift ratio and damage levels. The results indicate that concentrating shear walls in the middle of the structure during the design phase yields superior performance compared to peripheral distributions. Utilizing shear walls that fully infill the frame and adopting compound shapes (e.g., Box, U, and L) enhances reliability in terms of inter-story drift. Conversely, the absence of complete shear walls within the frame leads to decreased stiffness and degradation of shorter beams. Increasing the shear wall-to-floor area ratio in building design enhances structural rigidity and reliability regarding inter-story drift, facilitating the attainment of desired performance levels. The study suggests that a shear wall ratio of 1.0% is necessary to meet validation criteria for inter-story drift and structural damage, as exceeding this percentage leads to excessive performance levels, proving uneconomical as structural elements operate near the elastic range.

Keywords: nonlinear analyses, pushover analysis, shear wall, plastic hinge, performance level

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Authors: Karl Gerrard Tiu See

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Military bases are an indelible mark of prolonged US defense relationships in the Pacific. Bases like the Subic Naval Base in Olongapo City have irreversible consequences for their host communities, not all of which are positive. One consequence the Subic Naval Base had for Olongapo City was the rise of vibrant sex industry. While the Philippine Senate voted to remove US bases like Subic in 1991, the question remains as to why did prostitution not end after the bases pull-out? To answer this question, the study used an institutionalist lens coupled with focus group discussions from the sex industry. It found that prostitution persisted due to two main reasons. The first was that like Olongapo City; the sex industry successfully shifted its reliance from the military to foreign tourism. The second was that agreements such as the 1996 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) ensured that the sex industry continued to receive US military clientele. With the contextual factors as the backdrop, this study used the Theory of Institutional Change to study institutions pivotal in altering Olongapo City and its sex industry after Subic Naval Base. These include local government, civil society actors such as NGOs, and the city’s economic base. The study found that policy such as the VFA allowed the bases period status quo to revive (Symbionts). This led to renewed exploitation from the military presence coupled with foreign tourism (Opportunists). The local government, however, shifted focus away from base reliance which allowed a reinvigorated civil society to effect a gradual change (Subversives). Furthermore, uncertainties like rising HIV incidence, abandoned children born from US soldiers, and the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) remain to change the sex industry’s future, for better or worse.

Keywords: Philippine-USA defence relations, overseas USA basing, 1991 Philippine-USA bases pull-out, Olongapo city, Subic naval base, institutional change

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Authors: Vani Chintapally

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The expansion of modest and minimized Global Positioning System (GPS) beneficiaries has prompted most Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) frameworks today depending solely on satellite-based finding frameworks, as GPS is the most stable usage of these. This paper shows the attributes of a proposed framework for following and dissecting open transport in a run of the mill medium-sized city and complexities the qualities of such a framework to those of broadly useful AVL frameworks. Particular properties of the courses broke down by the AVL framework utilized for the examination of open transport in our study incorporate cyclic vehicle courses, the requirement for particular execution reports, and so forth. This paper particularly manages vehicle movement forecasts and the estimation of station landing time, combined with consequently produced reports on timetable conformance and other execution measures. Another side of the watched issue is proficient exchange of information from the vehicles to the control focus. The pervasiveness of GSM bundle information exchange advancements combined with decreased information exchange expenses have brought on today's AVL frameworks to depend predominantly on parcel information exchange administrations from portable administrators as the correspondences channel in the middle of vehicles and the control focus. This methodology brings numerous security issues up in this conceivably touchy application field.

Keywords: automatic vehicle location (AVL), expectation of landing times, AVL security, data administrations, wise transport frameworks (ITS), guide coordinating

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Authors: Andreas Gohs, Reinhold Kosfeld

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This study should be of interest for practitioners who want to predict precisely the sales numbers of vehicles equipped with an innovative propulsion technology as well as for researchers interested in applied (regional) time series analysis. The study is based on the numbers of new registrations of pure electric and hybrid cars. Methods of time series analysis like ARIMA are compared with the Bass Diffusion-model concerning their forecasting performances for new registrations in Germany at the national and federal state levels. Especially it is investigated if the additional information content from regional data increases the forecasting accuracy for the national level by adding predictions for the federal states. Results of parameters of the Bass Diffusion Model estimated for Germany and its sixteen federal states are reported. While the focus of this research is on the German market, estimation results are also provided for selected European and other countries. Concerning Bass-parameters and forecasting performances, we get very different results for Germany's federal states and the member states of the European Union. This corresponds to differences across the EU-member states in the adoption process of this innovative technology. Concerning the German market, the adoption is rather proceeded in southern Germany and stays behind in Eastern Germany except for Berlin.

Keywords: bass diffusion model, electric vehicles, forecasting performance, market diffusion

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Authors: Abdullahi Jibrin, Aishetu Abdulkadir

Abstract:

The development of allometric models is crucial to accurate forest biomass/carbon stock assessment. The aim of this study was to develop a set of biomass prediction models that will enable the determination of total tree aboveground biomass for savannah woodland area in Niger State, Nigeria. Based on the data collected through biometric measurements of 1816 trees and destructive sampling of 36 trees, five species specific and one site specific models were developed. The sample size was distributed equally between the five most dominant species in the study site (Vitellaria paradoxa, Irvingia gabonensis, Parkia biglobosa, Anogeissus leiocarpus, Pterocarpus erinaceous). Firstly, the equations were developed for five individual species. Secondly these five species were mixed and were used to develop an allometric equation of mixed species. Overall, there was a strong positive relationship between total tree biomass and the stem diameter. The coefficient of determination (R2 values) ranging from 0.93 to 0.99 P < 0.001 were realised for the models; with considerable low standard error of the estimates (SEE) which confirms that the total tree above ground biomass has a significant relationship with the dbh. The F-test value for the biomass prediction models were also significant at p < 0.001 which indicates that the biomass prediction models are valid. This study recommends that for improved biomass estimates in the study site, the site specific biomass models should preferably be used instead of using generic models.

Keywords: allometriy, biomass, carbon stock , model, regression equation, woodland, inventory

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Authors: Xiuguo Zhao, He Li, Alireza Yazdani, Xiaoning Zheng, Xinxi Xu

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Wound infected poses a serious threat to the surgery on the patient during the process of surgery. Understanding the bacteria-carrying particles (BCPs) transportation and deposition in the open surgical wound model play essential role in protecting wound against being infected. Therefore BCPs transportation and deposition in the surgical wound model were investigated using force-coupling method (FCM) based computational fluid dynamics. The BCPs deposition in the wound was strongly associated with BCPs diameter and concentration. The results showed that the rise on the BCPs deposition was increasing not only with the increase of BCPs diameters but also with the increase of the BCPs concentration. BCPs deposition morphology was impacted by the combination of size distribution, airflow patterns and model geometry. The deposition morphology exhibited the characteristic with BCPs deposition on the sidewall in wound model and no BCPs deposition on the bottom of the wound model mainly because the airflow movement in one direction from up to down and then side created by laminar system constructing airflow patterns and then made BCPs hard deposit in the bottom of the wound model due to wound geometry limit. It was also observed that inertial impact becomes a main mechanism of the BCPs deposition. This work may contribute to next study in BCPs deposition limit, as well as wound infected estimation in surgical-site infections.

Keywords: BCPs deposition, computational fluid dynamics, force-coupling method (FCM), numerical simulation, open surgical wound model

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Authors: Yosra Ben Mhamed

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Most previous research that investigates the importance of earnings volatility for a firm’s value has focused on the effects of earnings volatility on the cost of capital. Many study illustrate that earnings volatility can reduce the firm’s value by enhancing the cost of capital. However, a few recent studies directly examine the relation between earnings volatility and subsequent earnings levels. In our study, we further explore the role of volatility in forecasting. Our study makes two primary contributions to the literature. First, taking into account the level of current firm’s performance, we provide causal theory to the link between volatility and earnings predictability. Nevertheless, previous studies testing the linearity of this relationship have not mentioned any underlying theory. Secondly, our study contributes to the vast body of fundamental analysis research that identifies a set of variables that improve valuation, by showing that earnings volatility affects the estimation of future earnings. Projections of earnings are used by valuation research and practice to derive estimates of firm value. Since we want to examine the impact of volatility on earnings predictability, we sort the sample into three portfolios according to the level of their earnings volatility in ascending order. For each quintile, we present the predictability coefficient. In a second test, each of these portfolios is, then, sorted into three further quintiles based on their level of current earnings. These yield nine quintiles. So we can observe whether volatility strongly predicts decreases on earnings predictability only for highest quintile of earnings. In general, we find that earnings volatility has an inverse relationship with earnings predictability. Our results also show that the sensibility of earnings predictability to ex-ante volatility is more pronounced among profitability firms. The findings are most consistent with overinvestment and persistence explanations.

Keywords: earnings volatility, earnings predictability, earnings persistence, current profitability

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Authors: Faisal Alsaaq

Abstract:

Hydrographic surveys have traditionally relied on the availability of tide information for the reduction of sounding observations to a common datum. In most cases, tide information is obtained from tide gauge observations and/or tide predictions over space and time using local, regional or global tide models. While the latter often provides a rather crude approximation, the former relies on tide gauge stations that are spatially restricted, and often have sparse and limited distribution. A more recent method that is increasingly being used is Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positioning which can be utilised to monitor height variations of a vessel or buoy, thus providing information on sea level variations during the time of a hydrographic survey. However, GNSS heights obtained under the dynamic environment of a survey vessel are affected by “non-tidal” processes such as wave activity and the attitude of the vessel (roll, pitch, heave and dynamic draft). This research seeks to examine techniques that separate the tide signal from other non-tidal signals that may be contained in GNSS heights. This requires an investigation of the processes involved and their temporal, spectral and stochastic properties in order to apply suitable recovery techniques of tide information. In addition, different post-mission and near real-time GNSS positioning techniques will be investigated with focus on estimation of height at ocean. Furthermore, the study will investigate the possibility to transfer the chart datums at the location of tide gauges.

Keywords: hydrography, GNSS, datum, tide gauge

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Authors: Suchitra Sivakumar, Hajime Shingyouchi, Toshinori Okajima, Kyohei Yamaguchi, Jin Kusaka

Abstract:

The progressing need for powertrain electrification calls for more accurate and reliable simulation models. A battery pack serves as the most vital component for energy storage in an electrified powertrain. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) do not behave the same way as they age, and there are several environmental factors that account for the degradation of the battery on a system level. Therefore, in this work, a battery model was proposed to study the state of charge (SOC) variation and the internal dynamic changes that contribute to aging and performance degradation in HEV batteries. An equivalent circuit battery model (ECM) is built using MATLAB Simulink to investigate the output characteristics of the lithium-ion battery. The ECM comprises of circuit elements like a voltage source, a series resistor and a parallel RC network connected in series. A parameter estimation study is conducted on the ECM to study the dependencies of the circuit elements with the state of charge (SOC) and the terminal voltage of the battery. The battery model is extended to simulate the temperature dependence of the individual battery cell and the battery pack with the environment. The temperature dependence model accounts for the heat loss due to internal resistance build up in the battery pack during charging, discharging, and due to atmospheric temperature. The model was validated for a lithium-ion battery pack with an independent drive cycle showing a voltage accuracy of 4% and SOC accuracy of about 2%.

Keywords: battery model, hybrid electric vehicle, lithium-ion battery, thermal model

Procedia PDF Downloads 296