Search results for: accelerated failure time model

Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, Jung Kyu Choi, Yong Ju Kwak, Oh Hyeon Jeon, Woo Young Jung

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In this study, we investigated the buckling performance of basalt fiber reinforced polymer (BFRP) sandwich infill panels. Fiber Reinforced Polymer (FRP) is a major evolution for energy dissipation when used as infill material of frame structure, a basic Polymer Matrix Composite (PMC) infill wall system consists of two FRP laminates surrounding an infill of foam core. Furthermore, this type of component is for retrofitting and strengthening frame structure to withstand the seismic disaster. In-plane compression was considered in the numerical analysis with ABAQUS platform to determine the buckling failure load of BFRP infill panel system. The present result shows that the sandwich BFRP infill panel system has higher resistance to buckling failure than those of glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) infill panel system, i.e. 16% increase in buckling resistance capacity.

Keywords: Basalt Fiber Reinforced Polymer (BFRP), buckling performance, FEM analysis, sandwich infill panel

Procedia PDF Downloads 441

Authors: Jie Bai, Yongsheng Gao, Shengxin Wang, Jie Zhao

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Through the establishment of the elbow biomechanical model, it can provide theoretical guide for rehabilitation therapy on the upper limb of the human body. A biomechanical model of the elbow joint can be built by the connection of muscle force model and elbow dynamics. But there are many undetermined coefficients in the model like the optimal joint angle and optimal muscle force which are usually specified as the experimental parameters of other workers. Because of the individual differences, there is a certain deviation of the final result. To this end, the RMS value of the deviation between the actual angle and calculated angle is considered. A set of coefficients which lead to the minimum RMS value will be chosen to be the optimal parameters. The direct search method and the conjugacy search method are used to get the optimal parameters, thus the model can be more accurate and mode adaptability.

Keywords: elbow biomechanical model, RMS, direct search, conjugacy search

Procedia PDF Downloads 548

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model

Procedia PDF Downloads 367

Authors: Gabriel Wainer

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Modeling and Simulation methods have been used to better analyze the behavior of complex physical systems, and it is now common to use simulation as a part of the scientific and technological discovery process. M&S advanced thanks to the improvements in computer technology, which, in many cases, resulted in the development of simulation software using ad-hoc techniques. Formal M&S appeared in order to try to improve the development task of very complex simulation systems. Some of these techniques proved to be successful in providing a sound base for the development of discrete-event simulation models, improving the ease of model definition and enhancing the application development tasks; reducing costs and favoring reuse. The DEVS formalism is one of these techniques, which proved to be successful in providing means for modeling while reducing development complexity and costs. DEVS model development is based on a sound theoretical framework. The independence of M&S tasks made possible to run DEVS models on different environments (personal computers, parallel computers, real-time equipment, and distributed simulators) and middleware. We will present a historical perspective of discrete-event M&S methodologies, showing different modeling techniques. We will introduce DEVS origins and general ideas, and compare it with some of these techniques. We will then show the current status of DEVS M&S, and we will discuss a technological perspective to solve current M&S problems (including real-time simulation, interoperability, and model-centered development techniques). We will show some examples of the current use of DEVS, including applications in different fields. We will finally show current open topics in the area, which include advanced methods for centralized, parallel or distributed simulation, the need for real-time modeling techniques, and our view in these fields.

Keywords: modeling and simulation, discrete-event simulation, hybrid systems modeling, parallel and distributed simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Mehdi Fuladipanah

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Stepped spillway includes several steps from the crest to the toe. The steps of stepped spillway could cause to decrease the energy with making energy distribution in the longitude mode and also to reduce the outcome speed. The aim of this study was to stimulate the stepped spillway combined with stilling basin-step using Fluent model and the turbulent superficial flow using RNG, K-ε. The free surface of the flow was monitored by VOF model. The velocity and the depth of the flow were measured by tail water depth by the numerical model and then the dissipated energy was calculated along the spillway. The results indicated that the stilling basin-step complex may cause energy dissipation increment in the stepped spillway. Also, the numerical model was suggested as an effective method to predict the circular and complicated flows in the stepped spillways.

Keywords: stepped spillway, fluent model, VOF model, K-ε model, energy distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: Anastasios Charisis, Evangelos Kaisar, Steven Spana, Lili Du

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Logistics play a vital role in the prosperity of today’s cities, but current urban logistics practices are proving problematic, causing negative effects such as traffic congestion and environmental impacts. This paper proposes an alternative urban logistics system, leasing hubs inside cities for designated time intervals, and using handcarts for last-mile deliveries. A mathematical model for selecting the locations of hubs and allocating customers, while also scheduling the optimal times during the day for leasing hubs is developed. The proposed model is compared to current delivery methods requiring door-to-door truck deliveries. It is shown that truck traveled distances decrease by more than 60%. In addition, analysis shows that in certain conditions the approach can be economically competitive and successfully applied to address real problems.

Keywords: hub location, last-mile, logistics, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Kotaro Sasai, Daijiro Mizutani, Kiyoyuki Kaito

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Expressways in Japan have been built in an accelerating manner since the 1960s with the aid of rapid economic growth. About 40 percent in length of expressways in Japan is now 30 years and older and has become superannuated. Time-related deterioration has therefore reached to a degree that administrators, from a standpoint of operation and maintenance, are forced to take prompt measures on a large scale aiming at repairing inner damage deep in pavements. These measures have already been performed for bridge management in Japan and are also expected to be embodied for pavement management. Thus, planning methods for the measures are increasingly demanded. Deterioration of layers around road surface such as surface course and binder course is brought about at the early stages of whole pavement deterioration process, around 10 to 30 years after construction. These layers have been repaired primarily because inner damage usually becomes significant after outer damage, and because surveys for measuring inner damage such as Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) survey and open-cut survey are costly and time-consuming process, which has made it difficult for administrators to focus on inner damage as much as they have been supposed to. As expressways today have serious time-related deterioration within them deriving from the long time span since they started to be used, it is obvious the idea of repairing layers deep in pavements such as base course and subgrade must be taken into consideration when planning maintenance on a large scale. This sort of maintenance requires precisely predicting degrees of deterioration as well as grasping the present situations of pavements. Methods for predicting deterioration are determined to be either mechanical or statistical. While few mechanical models have been presented, as far as the authors know of, previous studies have presented statistical methods for predicting deterioration in pavements. One describes deterioration process by estimating Markov deterioration hazard model, while another study illustrates it by estimating Proportional deterioration hazard model. Both of the studies analyze deflection data obtained from FWD surveys and present statistical methods for predicting deterioration process of layers around road surface. However, layers of base course and subgrade remain unanalyzed. In this study, data collected from FWD surveys are analyzed to predict deterioration process of layers deep in pavements in addition to surface layers by a means of estimating a deterioration hazard model using continuous indexes. This model can prevent the loss of information of data when setting rating categories in Markov deterioration hazard model when evaluating degrees of deterioration in roadbeds and subgrades. As a result of portraying continuous indexes, the model can predict deterioration in each layer of pavements and evaluate it quantitatively. Additionally, as the model can also depict probability distribution of the indexes at an arbitrary point and establish a risk control level arbitrarily, it is expected that this study will provide knowledge like life cycle cost and informative content during decision making process referring to where to do maintenance on as well as when.

Keywords: deterioration hazard model, falling weight deflectometer, inner damage, load bearing capacity, pavement

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Authors: Mehdi Habibagahi, Shami Nejadi, Ata Aminfar

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A significant degradation factor that impacts the durability of concrete structures is the alkali-silica reaction. Engineers are frequently charged with the challenges of conducting a thorough safety assessment of concrete structures that have been impacted by ASR. The alkali-silica reaction has a major influence on the structural capacities of structures. In most cases, the reduction in compressive strength, tensile strength, and modulus of elasticity is expressed as a function of free expansion and crack widths. Predicting the effect of ASR on flexural strength is also relevant. In this paper, a nonlinear three-dimensional (3D) finite-element model was proposed to describe the flexural strength degradation induced byASR.Initial strains, initial stresses, initial cracks, and deterioration of material characteristics were all considered ASR factors in this model. The effects of ASR on structural performance were evaluated by focusing on initial flexural stiffness, force–deformation curve, and load-carrying capacity. Degradation of concrete mechanical properties was correlated with ASR growth using material test data conducted at Tech Lab, UTS, and implemented into the FEM for various expansions. The finite element study revealed a better understanding of the ASR-affected RC beam's failure mechanism and capacity reduction as a function of ASR expansion. Furthermore, in this study, decreasing of the residual mechanical properties due to ASRisreviewed, using as input data for the FEM model. Finally, analysis techniques and a comparison of the analysis and the experiment results are discussed. Verification is also provided through analyses of reinforced concrete beams with behavior governed by either flexural or shear mechanisms.

Keywords: alkali-silica reaction, analysis, assessment, finite element, nonlinear analysis, reinforced concrete

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Authors: Leila Rashidian, Abbas Ebrahimi

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The development of industrial activities, increase in fossil fuel consumption, vehicles, destruction of forests and grasslands, changes in land use, and population growth have caused to increase the amount of greenhouse gases especially CO₂ in the atmosphere in recent decades. This has led to global warming and climate change. In the present paper, we have investigated the trend of climate change according to the data simulation during the time interval of 2010-2030 in the Fars province. In this research, the daily climatic parameters such as maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and number of sunny hours during the 1977-2008 time interval for synoptic stations of Shiraz and Abadeh and during 1995-2008 for Lar stations and also the output of HADCM₃ model in 2010-2030 time interval have been used based on the A₂ propagation scenario. The results of the model show that the average temperature will increase by about 1 degree centigrade and the amount of precipitation will increase by 23.9% compared to the observational data. In conclusion, according to the temperature increase in this province, the amount of precipitation in the form of snow will be reduced and precipitations often will occur in the form of rain. This 1-degree centigrade increase during the season will reduce production by 6 to 10% because of shortening the growing period of wheat.

Keywords: climate change, Lars WG, HADCM3, Gillan province, climatic parameters, A2 scenario

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Authors: Omran M. Kenshel, Alan J. O'Connor

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Estimating the service life of Reinforced Concrete (RC) bridge structures located in corrosive marine environments of a great importance to their owners/engineers. Traditionally, bridge owners/engineers relied more on subjective engineering judgment, e.g. visual inspection, in their estimation approach. However, because financial resources are often limited, rational calculation methods of estimation are needed to aid in making reliable and more accurate predictions for the service life of RC structures. This is in order to direct funds to bridges found to be the most critical. Criticality of the structure can be considered either form the Structural Capacity (i.e. Ultimate Limit State) or from Serviceability viewpoint whichever is adopted. This paper considers the service life of the structure only from the Structural Capacity viewpoint. Considering the great variability associated with the parameters involved in the estimation process, the probabilistic approach is most suited. The probabilistic modelling adopted here used Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate the Reliability (i.e. Probability of Failure) of the structure under consideration. In this paper the authors used their own experimental data for the Correlation Length (CL) for the most important deterioration parameters. The CL is a parameter of the Correlation Function (CF) by which the spatial fluctuation of a certain deterioration parameter is described. The CL data used here were produced by analyzing 45 chloride profiles obtained from a 30 years old RC bridge located in a marine environment. The service life of the structure were predicted in terms of the load carrying capacity of an RC bridge beam girder. The analysis showed that the influence of SV is only evident if the reliability of the structure is governed by the Flexure failure rather than by the Shear failure.

Keywords: Chloride-induced corrosion, Monte-Carlo simulation, reinforced concrete, spatial variability

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Authors: Gustavo Rodrigues, Hans Weber, Larissa Driemeier

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The prevision of post-impact conditions and the behavior of the bodies during the impact have been object of several collision models. The formulation from Hertz’s theory is generally used dated from the 19^th century. These models consider the repulsive force as proportional to the deformation of the bodies under contact and may consider it proportional to the rate of deformation. The objective of the present work is to analyze the behavior of the bodies during impact using the Finite Element Method (FEM) with elastic and plastic material models. The main parameters to evaluate are, the contact force, the time of contact and the deformation of the bodies. An advantage of using the FEM approach is the possibility to apply a plastic deformation to the model according to the material definition: there will be used Johnson–Cook plasticity model whose parameters are obtained through empirical tests of real materials. This model allows analyzing the permanent deformation caused by impact, phenomenon observed in real world depending on the forces applied to the body. These results are compared between them and with the model-based Hertz theory.

Keywords: collision, impact models, finite element method, Hertz Theory

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Authors: S. Y. Cicekli

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In this study, tree-dimensional model of tree was created by using terrestrial close range photogrammetry. For this close range photos were taken. Photomodeler Pro 5 software was used for camera calibration and create three-dimensional model of trees. In first test, three-dimensional model of a tree was created, in the second test three-dimensional model of three trees were created. This study aim is creating three-dimensional model of trees and indicate the use of close-range photogrammetry in forestry. At the end of the study, three-dimensional model of tree and three trees were created. This study showed that usability of close-range photogrammetry for monitoring tree and forests three-dimensional model.

Keywords: close- range photogrammetry, forest, tree, three-dimensional model

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Authors: Razi Khalafi

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Brain is the information processing center of the human body. Stimuli in form of information are transferred to the brain and then brain makes the decision on how to respond to them. In this research we propose a new partial differential equation which analyses the EEG signals and make a relationship between the incoming stimuli and the brain response to them. In order to test the proposed model, a set of external stimuli applied to the model and the model’s outputs were checked versus the real EEG data. The results show that this model can model the EEG signal well. The proposed model is useful not only for modeling of the EEG signal in case external stimuli but it can be used for the modeling of brain response in case of internal stimuli.

Keywords: Brain, stimuli, partial differential equation, response, eeg signal

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Authors: Alessandro Preziosi, Antonio Prioletti, Luca Castangia

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Deformable part models achieve high precision in pedestrian recognition, but all publicly available implementations are too slow for real-time applications. We implemented a deformable part model algorithm fast enough for real-time use by exploiting information about the camera position and orientation. This implementation is both faster and more precise than alternative DPM implementations. These results are obtained by computing convolutions in the frequency domain and using lookup tables to speed up feature computation. This approach is almost an order of magnitude faster than the reference DPM implementation, with no loss in precision. Knowing the position of the camera with respect to horizon it is also possible prune many hypotheses based on their size and location. The range of acceptable sizes and positions is set by looking at the statistical distribution of bounding boxes in labelled images. With this approach it is not needed to compute the entire feature pyramid: for example higher resolution features are only needed near the horizon. This results in an increase in mean average precision of 5% and an increase in speed by a factor of two. Furthermore, to reduce misdetections involving small pedestrians near the horizon, input images are supersampled near the horizon. Supersampling the image at 1.5 times the original scale, results in an increase in precision of about 4%. The implementation was tested against the public KITTI dataset, obtaining an 8% improvement in mean average precision over the best performing DPM-based method. By allowing for a small loss in precision computational time can be easily brought down to our target of 100ms per image, reaching a solution that is faster and still more precise than all publicly available DPM implementations.

Keywords: autonomous vehicles, deformable part model, dpm, pedestrian detection, real time

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Xie Xiaobin, Zhang Yan, Shi Yipeng, Sun Wenying, Chen Shuang, Cai Zhipeng, Zhang Hong, Zhang Lixia, Xie Like

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Objective: The objective of this research is to compare the efficacy of the late in-situ surgical revision augmented with continuous infusion and needle revision on failed trabeculectomy blebs. Methods From December 2018 to December 2021, a prospective randomized controlled trial was performed on 44 glaucoma patients with failed bleb ≥ 6months with medically uncontrolled in Eye Hospital, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences. They were randomly divided into two groups. 22 eyes of 22 patients underwent the late in-situ surgical revision with continuous anterior chamber infusion in the study group, and 22 of 22 patients were treated with needle revision in the control group. Main outcome measures include preoperative and postoperative intraocular pressure (IOP), the number of anti-glaucoma medicines, the operation success rate, and the postoperative complications. Results The postoperative IOP values decreased significantly from the baseline in both groups (both P<0.05). IOP was significantly lower in the study group than in the control group at one week, 1, and 3 months postoperatively (all P<0.05). IOP reductions in the study group were substantially more prominent than in the control group at all postoperative time points (all P<0.05). The complete success rate in the study group was significantly higher than in the control group (71.4% vs. 33.3%, P<0.05), while the complete failure rate was significantly lower in the study group (0% vs. 28.5%, P<0.05). According to Cox’s proportional hazards regression analysis, high IOP at baseline was independently associated with increased risks of complete failure (adjusted hazard ratio=1.141, 95% confidence interval=1.021-1.276, P<0.05). There was no significant difference in the incidence of postoperative complications between the two groups (P>0.05). Conclusion: Both in-situ surgical and needle revision have acceptable success rates and safety for the late failed trabeculectomy blebs, while the former is likely to have a higher level of efficacy over the latter. Needle revision may be insufficient for eyes with low target IOP.

Keywords: glaucoma, trabeculectomy blebs, in-situ surgical revision, needle revision

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Authors: Jongtae Rhee, Sangkwon Han, Seungbin Ji, Junhyeong Park, Byeonghun Kim, Taekyung Kim, Byeonghyeon Jeon, Jiwoo Yang

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The shared kitchen is a concept that transfers the value of the sharing economy to the kitchen. It is a type of kitchen equipped with cooking facilities that allows multiple companies or chefs to share time and space and use it jointly. These shared kitchens provide economic benefits and convenience, such as reduced investment costs and rent, but also increase the risk of safety management, such as cross-contamination of food ingredients. Therefore, to manage the safety of food ingredients and finished products in a shared kitchen where several entities jointly use the kitchen and handle various types of food ingredients, it is critical to manage followings: the freshness of food ingredients, user hygiene and safety and cross-contamination of cooking equipment and facilities. In this study, it propose a machine learning-based system for hygiene safety and cross-contamination management, which are highly difficult to manage. User clothing management and user access management, which are most relevant to the hygiene and safety of shared kitchens, are solved through machine learning-based methodology, and cutting board usage management, which is most relevant to cross-contamination management, is implemented as an integrated safety management system based on artificial intelligence. First, to prevent cross-contamination of food ingredients, we use images collected through a real-time camera to determine whether the food ingredients match a given cutting board based on a real-time object detection model, YOLO v7. To manage the hygiene of user clothing, we use a camera-based facial recognition model to recognize the user, and real-time object detection model to determine whether a sanitary hat and mask are worn. In addition, to manage access for users qualified to enter the shared kitchen, we utilize machine learning based signature recognition module. By comparing the pairwise distance between the contract signature and the signature at the time of entrance to the shared kitchen, access permission is determined through a pre-trained signature verification model. These machine learning-based safety management tasks are integrated into a single information system, and each result is managed in an integrated database. Through this, users are warned of safety dangers through the tablet PC installed in the shared kitchen, and managers can track the cause of the sanitary and safety accidents. As a result of system integration analysis, real-time safety management services can be continuously provided by artificial intelligence, and machine learning-based methodologies are used for integrated safety management of shared kitchens that allows dynamic contracts among various users. By solving this problem, we were able to secure the feasibility and safety of the shared kitchen business.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, food safety, information system, safety management, shared kitchen

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Authors: Weiping Liu

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This paper presents an equation to calculate stock prices of different growth model. This equation is mathematically derived by using discounted cash flow method. It has the advantages of being very easy to use and very accurate. It can still be used even when the first stage is lengthy. This equation is more generalized because it can be used for all the three popular stock price models. It can be programmed into financial calculator or electronic spreadsheets. In addition, it can be extended to a multistage model. It is more versatile and efficient than the traditional methods.

Keywords: stock price, multistage model, different growth model, discounted cash flow method

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Authors: Ali Abdul Kadhim, Fue Lien

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Solid particle distribution on an impingement surface has been simulated utilizing a graphical processing unit (GPU). In-house computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code has been developed to investigate a 3D turbulent impinging jet using the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) in conjunction with large eddy simulation (LES) and the multiple relaxation time (MRT) models. This paper proposed an improvement in the LBM-cellular automata (LBM-CA) probabilistic method. In the current model, the fluid flow utilizes the D3Q19 lattice, while the particle model employs the D3Q27 lattice. The particle numbers are defined at the same regular LBM nodes, and transport of particles from one node to its neighboring nodes are determined in accordance with the particle bulk density and velocity by considering all the external forces. The previous models distribute particles at each time step without considering the local velocity and the number of particles at each node. The present model overcomes the deficiencies of the previous LBM-CA models and, therefore, can better capture the dynamic interaction between particles and the surrounding turbulent flow field. Despite the increasing popularity of LBM-MRT-CA model in simulating complex multiphase fluid flows, this approach is still expensive in term of memory size and computational time required to perform 3D simulations. To improve the throughput of each simulation, a single GeForce GTX TITAN X GPU is used in the present work. The CUDA parallel programming platform and the CuRAND library are utilized to form an efficient LBM-CA algorithm. The methodology was first validated against a benchmark test case involving particle deposition on a square cylinder confined in a duct. The flow was unsteady and laminar at Re=200 (Re is the Reynolds number), and simulations were conducted for different Stokes numbers. The present LBM solutions agree well with other results available in the open literature. The GPU code was then used to simulate the particle transport and deposition in a turbulent impinging jet at Re=10,000. The simulations were conducted for L/D=2,4 and 6, where L is the nozzle-to-surface distance and D is the jet diameter. The effect of changing the Stokes number on the particle deposition profile was studied at different L/D ratios. For comparative studies, another in-house serial CPU code was also developed, coupling LBM with the classical Lagrangian particle dispersion model. Agreement between results obtained with LBM-CA and LBM-Lagrangian models and the experimental data is generally good. The present GPU approach achieves a speedup ratio of about 350 against the serial code running on a single CPU.

Keywords: CUDA, GPU parallel programming, LES, lattice Boltzmann method, MRT, multi-phase flow, probabilistic model

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Authors: Po-Wen Chen, Jin-Yu Wu, Md. Manirul Ali, Yang Peng, Chen-Te Chang, Der-Jun Jan

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Dynamics of cathode spot has become a major part of vacuum arc discharge with its high academic interest and wide application potential. In this article, using a three-dimensional statistical model, we simulate the distribution of the ignition probability of a new cathode spot occurring in different magnetic pressure on old cathode spot surface and at different arcing time. This model for the ignition probability of a new cathode spot was proposed in two typical situations, one by the pure isotropic random walk in the absence of an external magnetic field, other by the retrograde motion in external magnetic field, in parallel with the cathode surface. We mainly focus on developed relationship between the ignition probability density distribution of a new cathode spot and the external magnetic field.

Keywords: cathode spot, vacuum arc discharge, transverse magnetic field, random walk

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Authors: Moses Mwangi, Geert Verbeke, Geert Molenberghs

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Cross-over designs are commonly used in randomized clinical trials to estimate efficacy of a new treatment with respect to a reference treatment (placebo or standard). The main advantage of using cross-over design over conventional parallel design is its flexibility, where every subject become its own control, thereby reducing confounding effect. Jones & Kenward, discuss in detail more recent developments in the analysis of cross-over trials. We revisit the simple piecewise linear mixed-effects model, proposed by Mwangi et. al, (in press) for its first application in the analysis of cross-over trials. We compared performance of the proposed piecewise linear mixed-effects model with two commonly cited statistical models namely, (1) Grizzle model; and (2) Jones & Kenward model, used in estimation of the treatment effect, in the analysis of randomized cross-over trial. We estimate two performance measurements (mean square error (MSE) and coverage probability) for the three methods, using data simulated from the proposed piecewise linear mixed-effects model. Piecewise linear mixed-effects model yielded lowest MSE estimates compared to Grizzle and Jones & Kenward models for both small (Nobs=20) and large (Nobs=600) sample sizes. It’s coverage probability were highest compared to Grizzle and Jones & Kenward models for both small and large sample sizes. A piecewise linear mixed-effects model is a better estimator of treatment effect than its two competing estimators (Grizzle and Jones & Kenward models) in the analysis of cross-over trials. The data generating mechanism used in this paper captures two time periods for a simple 2-Treatments x 2-Periods cross-over design. Its application is extendible to more complex cross-over designs with multiple treatments and periods. In addition, it is important to note that, even for single response models, adding more random effects increases the complexity of the model and thus may be difficult or impossible to fit in some cases.

Keywords: Evaluation, Grizzle model, Jones & Kenward model, Performance measures, Simulation

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Authors: E. Ruíz, W. Aperador

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In this article evaluates the protective effect of the concrete alternative obtained from the fly ash and iron and steel slag mixed in binary form and were placed on structural steel ASTM A 706. The study was conducted comparatively with specimens exposed to natural conditions free of chloride ion. The effect of chloride ion on the specimens was generated of form accelerated under controlled conditions (3.5% NaCl and 25 ° C temperature). The Impedance data were acquired over a range of 1 mHz to 100 kHz. At frequencies high is found the response of the interface means of the exposure-concrete and to frequency low the response of the interface corresponding to concrete-steel.

Keywords: alternative concrete, corrosion, alkaline activation, impedance spectroscopy

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Authors: Sadia Arshad, Ayesha Sohail, Sana Javed, Khadija Maqbool, Salma Kanwal

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The dynamical study of the carriers play an essential role in the evolution and global transmission of infectious diseases and will be discussed in this study. To make this approach novel, we will consider the fractional order model which is generalization of integer order derivative to an arbitrary number. Since the integration involved is non local therefore this property of fractional operator is very useful to study epidemic model for infectious diseases. An extended numerical method (ODE solver) is implemented on the model equations and we will present the simulations of the model for different values of fractional order to study the effect of carriers on transmission dynamics. Global dynamics of fractional model are established by using the reproduction number.

Keywords: Fractional differential equation, Numerical simulations, epidemic model, transmission dynamics

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Authors: Christian Neunzig, Simon Fahle, Jürgen Schulz, Matthias Möller, Bernd Kuhlenkötter

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The widespread use of machine learning applications in production is significantly accelerated by improved computing power and increasing data availability. Predictive quality enables the assurance of product quality by using machine learning models as a basis for decisions on test results. The use of real Bosch production data based on geometric gauge blocks from machining, mating data from assembly and hydraulic measurement data from final testing of directional valves is a promising approach to classifying the quality characteristics of workpieces.

Keywords: machine learning, classification, predictive quality, hydraulics, supervised learning

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Authors: Jignasha Derasari, Patel Krishna M, Modi Jignasa G.

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Chemical stability of pharmaceutical molecules is a matter of great concern as it affects the safety and efficacy of the drug product.Stability testing data provides the basis to understand how the quality of a drug substance and drug product changes with time under the influence of various environmental factors. Besides this, it also helps in selecting proper formulation and package as well as providing proper storage conditions and shelf life, which is essential for regulatory documentation. The ICH guideline states that stress testing is intended to identify the likely degradation products which further help in determination of the intrinsic stability of the molecule and establishing degradation pathways, and to validate the stability indicating procedures. A simple, accurate and precise stability indicating RP- HPLC method was developed and validated for simultaneous estimation of Amiloride Hydrochloride and Furosemide in tablet dosage form. Separation was achieved on an Phenomenexluna ODS C18 (250 mm × 4.6 mm i.d., 5 µm particle size) by using a mobile phase consisting of Ortho phosphoric acid: Acetonitrile (50:50 %v/v) at a flow rate of 1.0 ml/min (pH 3.5 adjusted with 0.1 % TEA in Water) isocratic pump mode, Injection volume 20 µl and wavelength of detection was kept at 283 nm. Retention time for Amiloride Hydrochloride and Furosemide was 1.810 min and 4.269 min respectively. Linearity of the proposed method was obtained in the range of 40-60 µg/ml and 320-480 µg/ml and Correlation coefficient was 0.999 and 0.998 for Amiloride hydrochloride and Furosemide, respectively. Forced degradation study was carried out on combined dosage form with various stress conditions like hydrolysis (acid and base hydrolysis), oxidative and thermal conditions as per ICH guideline Q2 (R1). The RP- HPLC method has shown an adequate separation for Amiloride hydrochloride and Furosemide from its degradation products. Proposed method was validated as per ICH guidelines for specificity, linearity, accuracy; precision and robustness for estimation of Amiloride hydrochloride and Furosemide in commercially available tablet dosage form and results were found to be satisfactory and significant. The developed and validated stability indicating RP-HPLC method can be used successfully for marketed formulations. Forced degradation studies help in generating degradants in much shorter span of time, mostly a few weeks can be used to develop the stability indicating method which can be applied later for the analysis of samples generated from accelerated and long term stability studies. Further, kinetic study was also performed for different forced degradation parameters of the same combination, which help in determining order of reaction.

Keywords: amiloride hydrochloride, furosemide, kinetic study, stability indicating RP-HPLC method validation

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Authors: Frederick Otite Ighovojah

Abstract:

Corrosion in the oil and gas industries is one of the most common causes of failure. Such failure includes leaks in above-ground storage tanks (AGST). The involvement of microorganisms in the corrosion process in AGST systems is often ignored, and this outlines the need to investigate the effect of microbial corrosion in oil and gas facilities. This study's methodology comprised gathering generated water samples from a nearby AGST oil facility that was operating, which were then equally divided into two batch reactors, 1 and 2. Each batch reactor was filled with five prepared X60 coupons using sterilized forceps. To provide nutrients for the microorganisms in batch reactor 1 during the test period, 2g of NPK 15- 15-15 fertilizer was added on a weekly basis. To kill the microorganisms and significantly lower their concentration in the generated water, 5ml of dissolved ozone (a biocide) with a 0.5ppm concentration was added to batch reactor 2. The weight loss measurement (WLM) was used to evaluate for corrosion. Coupons were removed from each batch reactor, and weight loss was measured at every interval of 336 hrs for 2016 hrs. The overall results obtained indicated that coupons from the batch 1 reactor showed a higher corrosion rate and higher mass loss, and this was due to the metabolic production of an aggressive compound in the medium.

Keywords: AGST, microbial corrosion, reactor, X60 steel

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Authors: Modupe O. Jimoh

Abstract:

During manhole overflows, its contents pollute the immediate environment. Understanding the pollutant transfer characteristics between manhole’s incoming sewer and the overflow is therefore of great importance. A square manhole with sides 388 mm by 388 mm and height 700 mm with an overflow facility was used in the laboratory to carry out overflow concentration measurements. Two scenarios were investigated using three flow rates. The first scenario corresponded to when the exit of the pipe becomes blocked and the only exit for the flow is the manhole. The second scenario is when there is an overflow in combination with a pipe exit. The temporal concentration measurements showed that the peak concentration of pollutants in the flow was attenuated between the inlet and the overflow. A deconvolution software was used to predict the Residence time distribution (RTD) and consequently the Cumulative Residence time distribution (CRTD). The CRTDs suggest that complete mixing is occurring between the pipe inlet and the overflow, like what is obtained in a low surcharged manhole. The results also suggest that an instantaneous stirred tank reactor model can describe the mixing characteristics.

Keywords: CRTDs, instantaneous stirred tank reactor model, overflow, square manholes, surcharge, temporal concentration profiles

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Elham Vojoudi, Marzieh Mehrafza, Ahmad Hosseini, Azadeh Raofi, Maryam Najafi

Abstract:

Premature ovarian failure (POF) has become one of the main causes of infertility in women of childbearing age and the incidence of this disorder is increasing year by year. In these patients, poor ovarian response (POR) to gonadotropins reflects a diminished ovarian reserve (DOR) that gives place to few follicles despite aggressive stimulation. Up to now, egg donation is the only way to resolve infertility problems in POF patients. Therefore, some novel aspects such as activating (Akt signaling pathway) and inhibiting (Hippo-signaling) elements have been identified as IVA procedure that promotes primordial follicle activation. In this study, we used the newly developed technique (combination of in vitro activation of dormant follicles (IVA) and stem cell therapy) to promote ovarian follicle growth much more efficiently than the natural, in vivo process for women with POF. Transplantation of Warton Jelly-MSCs to the ovaries of POF patients rescued overall ovarian function. Participants (10 patients) were followed up monthly for a period of six months by hormonal (AMH, FSH, LH and E2), clinical (resuming menstruation), and US (folliculometry) outcomes after a laparoscopic operation. In summary, IVA/WJ-MSC transplantation may provide an effective treatment for POF.

Keywords: POF, in vitro activation, stem cell therapy, infertility

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Rusne Kregzdaite, Erika Godlevska, Morta Vidunaite

Abstract:

The main aim of this research is to explore existing methodologies for artists’ labour force and create artists’ socio-economic and creative conditions in an assessment model. Artists have dual aims in their creative working process: 1) income and 2) artistic self-expression. The valuation of their conditions takes into consideration both sides: the factors related to income and the satisfaction of the creative process and its result. The problem addressed in the study: tangible and intangible artists' criteria used for assessments creativity conditions. The proposed model includes objective factors (working time, income, etc.) and subjective factors (salary covering essential needs, self-satisfaction). Other intangible indicators are taken into account: the impact on the common culture, social values, and the possibility to receive awards, to represent the country in the international market. The empirical model consists of 59 separate indicators, grouped into eight categories. The deviation of each indicator from the general evaluation allows for identifying the strongest and the weakest components of artists’ conditions.

Keywords: artist conditions, artistic labour force, cultural policy, indicator, assessment model

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Fujio Akagi, Hiroaki Ito, Shin-Ichi Inage

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to develop a combustion model that can be applied uniformly to laminar and turbulent premixed flames while considering the effect of the Lewis number (Le). The model considers the effect of Le on the transport equations of the reaction progress, which varies with the chemical species and temperature. The distribution of the reaction progress variable is approximated by a hyperbolic tangent function, while the other distribution of the reaction progress variable is estimated using the approximated distribution and transport equation of the reaction progress variable considering the Le. The validity of the model was evaluated under the conditions of propane with Le > 1 and methane with Le = 1 (equivalence ratios of 0.5 and 1). The estimated results were found to be in good agreement with those of previous studies under all conditions. A method of introducing a turbulence model into this model is also described. It was confirmed that conventional turbulence models can be expressed as an approximate theory of this model in a unified manner.

Keywords: combustion model, laminar flame, Lewis number, turbulent flame

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: S. W. Chen, W. K. Lin, J. R. Wang, C. Shih, H. T. Lin, H. C. Chang, W. Y. Li

Abstract:

Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) is a BWR/6 type NPP and located on the northern coast of Taiwan. First, Kuosheng NPP TRACE model were developed in this research. In order to assess the system response of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model, startup tests data were used to evaluate Kuosheng NPP TRACE model. Second, the over pressurization transient analysis of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model was performed. Besides, in order to confirm the mechanical property and integrity of fuel rods, FRAPTRAN analysis was also performed in this study.

Keywords: TRACE, safety analysis, BWR/6, FRAPTRA

Procedia PDF Downloads 563