Search results for: probability weighting

Authors: Punnoose A. K.

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This paper presents an approach for identifying noisy speech recording using a multi-layer perception (MLP) trained to predict phonemes from acoustic features. Characteristics of the MLP posteriors are explored for clean speech and noisy speech at the frame level. Appropriate density functions are used to fit the softmax probability of the clean and noisy speech. A function that takes into account the ratio of the softmax probability density of noisy speech to clean speech is formulated. These phoneme independent scoring is weighted using a phoneme-specific weightage to make the scoring more robust. Simple thresholding is used to identify the noisy speech recording from the clean speech recordings. The approach is benchmarked on standard databases, with a focus on precision.

Keywords: noisy speech identification, speech pre-processing, noise robustness, feature engineering

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Authors: David de Oliveira Costa, Miguel Ângelo Lellis Moreira, Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes, Daniel Augusto de Moura Pereira, Marcos dos Santos

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Strategic management is a fundamental process for global companies that intend to remain competitive in an increasingly dynamic and complex market. To do so, it is necessary to maintain alignment with their principles and values. The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) proposes to ensure that the overall business performance is based on different perspectives (financial, customer, internal processes, and learning and growth). However, relying solely on the BSC may not be enough to ensure the success of strategic management. It is essential that companies also evaluate and prioritize strategic projects that need to be implemented to ensure they are aligned with the business vision and contribute to achieving established goals and objectives. In this context, the proposition involves the incorporation of the SAPEVO-M multicriteria method to indicate the degree of relevance between different perspectives. Thus, the strategic objectives linked to these perspectives have greater weight in the classification of structural projects. Additionally, it is proposed to apply the concept of the Impact & Probability Matrix (I&PM) to structure and ensure that strategic projects are evaluated according to their relevance and impact on the business. By structuring the business's strategic management in this way, alignment and prioritization of projects and actions related to strategic planning are ensured. This ensures that resources are directed towards the most relevant and impactful initiatives. Therefore, the objective of this article is to present the proposal for integrating the BSC methodology, the SAPEVO-M multicriteria method, and the prioritization matrix to establish a concrete weighting of strategic planning and obtain coherence in defining strategic projects aligned with the business vision. This ensures a robust decision-making support process.

Keywords: MCDA process, prioritization problematic, corporate strategy, multicriteria method

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Authors: Wook-Won Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Jin-O Kim

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This paper propose the method for optimal scheduling for battery energy storage system with reliability constraint of energy storage system in reliability aspect. The optimal scheduling problem is solved by dynamic programming with proposed transition matrix. Proposed optimal scheduling method guarantees the minimum fuel cost within specific reliability constraint. For evaluating proposed method, the timely capacity outage probability table (COPT) is used that is calculated by convolution of probability mass function of each generator. This study shows the result of optimal schedule of energy storage system.

Keywords: energy storage system (ESS), optimal scheduling, dynamic programming, reliability constraints

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Authors: Benjamin Sonnenreich

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Brittle fracture failure probability is best described using a stochastic approach which is based on the 'weakest link concept' and the connection between a microstructure and macroscopic fracture scale. A general theoretical and experimental framework is presented to predict the uniaxial strength distribution according to independent uniaxial test data. The framework takes as input the applied stresses, the geometry, the materials, the defect distributions and the relevant random variables from uniaxial test results and gives as output an overall failure probability that can be used to improve the reliability of practical designs. Additionally, the method facilitates comparisons of strength data from several sources, uniaxial tests, and sample geometries.

Keywords: brittle fracture, strength distribution, uniaxial, weakest link concept

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Authors: Samuel Ato Dadzie

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The objective of this study is to examine the influence of eclectic paradigm on motivational strategy of foreign subsidiaries in Ghana. This study uses binary regression model, and the analysis was based on 75 manufacturing investments made by MNEs from different countries in 1994–2008. The results indicated that perceived market size increases the probability of foreign firms undertaking a market seeking (MS) in Ghana, while perceived cultural distance between Ghana and foreign firm’s home countries decreased the probability of foreign firms undertaking an market seeking (MS) foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ghana. Furthermore, extensive international experience decreases the probability of foreign firms undertaking a market seeking (MS) foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ghana. Most of the studies done by earlier researchers were based on the advanced and emerging countries and offered support for the theory, which was used in generalizing the result that multinational corporations (MNCs) normally used the theory regarding investment strategy outside their home country. In using the same theory in the context of Ghana, the result does not offer strong support for the theory. This means that MNCs that come to Sub-Sahara Africa cannot rely much on eclectic paradigm for their motivational strategies because prevailing economic conditions in Ghana are different from that of the advanced and emerging economies where the institutional structures work.

Keywords: foreign subsidiary, motives, Ghana, foreign direct investment

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Authors: Ali Mustafa Elshawesh, Mohamed Abdulali

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The paper presents an approach to dimension circuit switched networks and find the relationship between the parameters of the circuit switched networks on the condition of specific probability of call blocking. Our work is creating a Simulation code based on Erlang (B) formula to draw graphs which show two curves for each graph; one of simulation and the other of calculated. These curves represent the relationships between average number of calls and average call duration with the probability of call blocking. This simulation code facilitates to select the appropriate parameters for circuit switched networks.

Keywords: Erlang B formula, call blocking, telephone system dimension, Markov model, link capacity

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Parjapati, Ajai Jain

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This paper presents optimization of makespan for ‘n’ jobs and ‘m’ machines flexible job shop scheduling problem with sequence dependent setup time using genetic algorithm (GA) approach. A restart scheme has also been applied to prevent the premature convergence. Two case studies are taken into consideration. Results are obtained by considering crossover probability (pc = 0.85) and mutation probability (pm = 0.15). Five simulation runs for each case study are taken and minimum value among them is taken as optimal makespan. Results indicate that optimal makespan can be achieved with more than one sequence of jobs in a production order.

Keywords: flexible job shop, genetic algorithm, makespan, sequence dependent setup times

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Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

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Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity

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Authors: Nattabhorn Leamcharaskul

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This study aims to examine determining factors of the dynamics of poverty in Thailand by using panel data of 3,567 households in 2007-2017. Four techniques of estimation are employed to analyze the situation of poverty across households and time periods: the multinomial logit model, the sequential logit model, the quantile regression model, and the difference in difference model. Households are categorized based on their experiences into 5 groups, namely chronically poor, falling into poverty, re-entering into poverty, exiting from poverty and never poor households. Estimation results emphasize the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors as well as unexpected events on the economic status of a household. It is found that remittances have positive impact on household’s economic status in that they are likely to lower the probability of falling into poverty or trapping in poverty while they tend to increase the probability of exiting from poverty. In addition, not only receiving a secondary source of household income can raise the probability of being a never poor household, but it also significantly increases household income per capita of the chronically poor and falling into poverty households. Public work programs are recommended as an important tool to relieve household financial burden and uncertainty and thus consequently increase a chance for households to escape from poverty.

Keywords: difference in difference, dynamic, multinomial logit model, panel data, poverty, quantile regression, remittance, sequential logit model, Thailand, transfer

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Authors: Peristera Baziana

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In this paper, we present a network configuration for a WDM LANs of passive star topology that assume that the set of data WDM channels is split into two separate sets of channels, with different access rights over them. Especially, a synchronous transmission WDMA access algorithm is adopted in order to increase the probability of successful transmission over the data channels and consequently to reduce the probability of data packets transmission cancellation in order to avoid the data channels collisions. Thus, a control pre-transmission access scheme is followed over a separate control channel. An analytical Markovian model is studied and the average throughput is mathematically derived. The performance is studied for several numbers of data channels and various values of control phase duration.

Keywords: access algorithm, channels division, collisions avoidance, wavelength division multiplexing

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Authors: Gabriel Calvo, Carmen Armero, Luigi Spezia

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A basketball player is said to have a hot hand if his/her performance is better than expected in different periods of time. A way to deal with this phenomenon is to make use of latent variables, which can indicate whether the player is ‘on fire’ or not. This work aims to model the hot hand phenomenon through a Bayesian hidden Markov model (HMM) with two states (cold and hot) and two different probability of success depending on the corresponding hidden state. This task is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study. The simulated data sets emulate the field goal attempts in an NBA season from different profile players. This model can be a powerful tool to assess the ‘streakiness’ of each player, and it provides information about the general performance of the players during the match. Finally, the Bayesian HMM allows computing the posterior probability of any type of streak.

Keywords: Bernoulli trials, field goals, latent variables, posterior distribution

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Authors: A. L. Agarwal, D. A. Mahajan

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Construction industry tumbled along with other industry/sectors during recent economic crash. Construction business could not regain thereafter and still pass through slowdown phase, resulted many real estate as well as infrastructure projects not completed on schedule and within budget. There are many theories, tools, techniques with software packages available in the market to analyze construction schedule. This study focuses on the construction project schedule and uncertainties associated with construction activities. The infrastructure construction project has been considered for the analysis of uncertainty on project activities affecting project duration and analysis is done using @RISK software. Different simulation results arising from three probability distribution functions are compiled to benefit construction project managers to plan more realistic schedule of various construction activities as well as project completion to document in the contract and avoid compensations or claims arising out of missing the planned schedule.

Keywords: construction project, distributions, project schedule, uncertainty

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zonoozian

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For such important constructions as jacket type platforms, scrupulous attention in analysis, design and calculation processes is needed. The reliability assessment method has been established into an extensively used method to behavior safety calculation of jacket platforms. In the present study, a methodology for the reliability calculation of an offshore jacket platform in contradiction of the extreme wave loading state is available. Therefore, sensitivity analyses are applied to acquire the nonlinear response of jacket-type platforms against extreme waves. The jacket structure is modeled by applying a nonlinear finite-element model with regards to the tubular members' behave. The probability of a member’s failure under extreme wave loading is figured by a finite-element reliability code. The FORM and SORM approaches are applied for the calculation of safety directories and reliability indexes have been detected. A case study for a fixed jacket-type structure positioned in the Persian Gulf is studied by means of the planned method. Furthermore, to define the failure standards, equations suggested by the 21st version of the API RP 2A-WSD for The jacket-type structures’ tubular members designing by applying the mixed axial bending and axial pressure. Consequently, the effect of wave Loades in the reliability index was considered.

Keywords: Jacket-Type structure, reliability, failure probability, tubular members

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Authors: Dolly Kumari, H. Lhungdim

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Maternal health is one of the crucial health indicators for any country. 5th goal of Millennium Development Goals is also emphasising on improvement of maternal health. Soon after Independence government of India realizing the importance of maternal and child health care services, and took steps to strengthen in 1st and 2nd five year plans. In past decade the other health indicator which is life expectancy at birth has been observed remarkable improvement. But still maternal mortality is high in India and in some states it is observe much higher than national average. Government of India pour lots of fund and initiate National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) in 2005 to improve maternal health in country by providing affordable and accessible health care services. Accredited Social Heath Activist (ASHA) is one of the key components of the NRHM. Mainly ASHAs are selected female aged 25-45 years from village itself and accountable for the monitoring of maternal health care for the same village. ASHA are trained to works as an interface between the community and public health system. This study tries to assess the role of ASHA in utilizing maternal health care services and to see the level of awareness about benefits given under JSY scheme and utilization of those benefits by eligible women. For the study concurrent evaluation data from National Rural health Mission (NRHM), initiated by government of India in 2005 has been used. This study is based on 78205 currently married women from 70 different districts of India. Descriptive statistics, chi2 test and binary logistic regression have been used for analysis. The probability of institutional delivery increases by 2.03 times (p<0.001) while if ASHA arranged or helped in arranging transport facility the probability of institutional delivery is increased by 1.67 times (p<0.01) than if she is not arranging transport facility. Further if ASHA facilitated to get JSY card to the pregnant women probability of going for full ANC is increases by 1.36 times (p<0.05) than reference. However if ASHA discuses about institutional delivery and approaches to get register than probability of getting TT injection is 1.88 and 1.64 times (p<0.01) higher than that if she did not discus. Further, Probability of benefits from JSY schemes is 1.25 times (p<0.001) higher among women who get married after 18 years. The probability of benefits from JSY schemes is 1.25 times (p<0.001) higher among women who get married after 18 year of age than before 18 years, it is also 1.28 times (p<0.001) and 1.32 times (p<0.001) higher among women have 1 to 8 year of schooling and with 9 and above years of schooling respectively than the women who never attended school. Those women who are working have 1.13 times (p<0.001) higher probability of getting benefits from JSY scheme than not working women. Surprisingly women belongs to wealthiest quintile are .53times (P<0.001) less aware about JSY scheme. Results conclude that work done by ASHA has great influence on maternal health care utilization in India. But results also show that still substantial numbers of needed population are far from utilization of these services. Place of delivery is significantly influenced by referral and transport facility arranged by ASHA.

Keywords: institutional delivery, JSY beneficiaries, referral faculty, public health

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Authors: Rashmi Gupta

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Rewarding stimuli capture attention involuntarily as a result of an association process that develops quickly during value learning, referred to as the reward or value-driven attentional capture. It is essential to compare reward with punishment processing to get a full picture of value-based modulation in visual attention processing. Hence, the present study manipulated both valence/value (reward as well as punishment) and motivational salience (probability of an outcome: high vs. low) together. Series of experiments were conducted, and there were two phases in each experiment. In phase 1, participants were required to learn to associate specific face stimuli with a high or low probability of winning or losing points. In the second phase, these conditioned stimuli then served as a distractor or prime in a speeded letter search task. Faces with high versus low outcome probability, regardless of valence, slowed the search for targets (specifically the left visual field target) and suggesting that the costs to performance on non-emotional cognitive tasks were only driven by motivational salience (high vs. loss) associated with the stimuli rather than the valence (gain vs. loss). It also suggests that the processing of motivationally salient stimuli is right-hemisphere biased. Together, results of these studies strengthen the notion that our visual attention system is more sensitive to affected by motivational saliency rather than valence, which termed here as motivational-driven attentional capture.

Keywords: attention, distractors, motivational salience, valence

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Authors: Patarapan Odton

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This study investigates demographic and socio-economic factors of breastfeeding practice, including exclusively breastfeeding among children in Thailand using the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS3 and MICS4). Logistic regression models were used to examine the determinants of initial breastfeeding, exclusively breastfeeding, and predominant breastfeeding, using data from women and children section of the survey. For initial breastfeeding, women live in rural area were more likely to start breastfeeding within one day of birth rather than who live in urban area in both round of the surveys. In year 2012, there were significantly higher probabilities of women in rural area started breastfeeding within one hour of birth compare to urban area. Women in southern Thailand have higher probabilities of start breastfeeding within one hour and one day than women in Bangkok and central region. During the year 2005-2006, children aged less than 5 years old lived in rural area have been breastfed higher than children in urban area. Children live in the northeast region were more likely to have been breastfed than the other regions. Only the second wealth quintile group was significant higher probability of ever been breastfed than the poorest group. The findings in the second round of the survey are different from the year 2005-06. In 2012, there was no difference in probability of ever been breastfed among children live in urban and rural area, children in Bangkok and central region were less probability of ever been breastfed than the others.

Keywords: Breastfeeding, Exclusive Breastfeeding, Predominant Breastfeeding, Urban-Rural Difference

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Authors: Dib Imane, Chettah Wahid, Khedidja Abdelhamid

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The plain of Gadaïne - Ain Yaghout, located in the wilaya of Batna (Eastern Algeria), experiences intensive human activities, particularly in agricultural practices which are accompanied by an increasing use of chemical fertilizers and manure. These activities lead to a degradation of the quality of water resources. In order to protect the quality of groundwater in this plain and formulate effective strategies to mitigate or avoid any contamination of groundwater, a risk assessment using the European method known as “COSTE Action 620” was applied to the mio-. plio-quaternary aquifer of this plain. Risk assessment requires the identification of existing dangers and their potential impact on groundwater by using a system of evaluation and weighting. In addition, it also requires the integration of the hydrogeological factors that influence the movement of contaminants by means of the intrinsic vulnerability maps of groundwater, which were produced according to the modified DRASTIC method. The overall danger on the plain ranges from very low to high. Farms containing stables, houses detached from the public sewer system, and sometimes manure piles were assigned a weighting factor expressing the highest degree of harmfulness; this created a medium to high danger index. Large areas for agricultural practice and grazing are characterized, successively, by low to very low danger. Therefore, the risks present at the study site are classified according to a range from medium to very high-risk intensity. These classes successively represent 3%, 49%, and 0.2% of the surface of the plain. Cultivated land and farms present a high to very high level of risk successively. In addition, with the exception of the salt mine, which presents a very high level of risk, the gas stations and cemeteries, as well as the railway line, represent a high level of risk.

Keywords: semi-arid, quality of water resources, risk assessment, vulnerability, contaminants

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Authors: Reza Heidari, Maryam Amiri

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In a technological world, many countries have a tendency to fortifying their companies and technological infrastructures. Also, one of the most important requirements for developing technology is innovation, and then, all companies are struggling to consider innovation as a basic principle. Since, the expansion of a product need to combine different technologies, therefore, different innovative projects would be run in the firms as a base of technology development. In such an environment, enterprise resource planning (ERP) has special significance in order to develop and strengthen of innovations. In this article, an economic-probabilistic analysis was provided to perform an implementation project of ERP in the technological innovation (TI) based firms. The used model in this article assesses simultaneously both risk and economic analysis in view of the probability of each event that is jointly between economical approach and risk investigation approach. To provide an economic-probabilistic analysis of risk of the project, activities and milestones in the cash flow were extracted. Also, probability of occurrence of each of them was assessed. Since, Resources planning in an innovative firm is the object of this project. Therefore, we extracted various risks that are in relation with innovative project and then they were evaluated in the form of cash flow. This model, by considering risks affecting the project and the probability of each of them and assign them to the project's cash flow categories, presents an adjusted cash flow based on Net Present Value (NPV) and with probabilistic simulation approach. Indeed, this model presented economic analysis of the project based on risks-adjusted. Then, it measures NPV of the project, by concerning that these risks which have the most effect on technological innovation projects, and in the following measures probability associated with the NPV for each category. As a result of application of presented model in the information and communication technology (ICT) industry, provided an appropriate analysis of feasibility of the project from the point of view of cash flow based on risk impact on the project. Obtained results can be given to decision makers until they can practically have a systematically analysis of the possibility of the project with an economic approach and as moderated.

Keywords: cash flow categorization, economic evaluation, probabilistic, risk assessment, technological innovation

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Authors: Jason Salim, Zhouyang Lu

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Private sector involvement in Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects may raise public suspicion, as PPP is often mistaken as merely a partnership between private and government agencies without consideration for greater “public” (community). This public marginalization is crucial to be dealt with because undermining opinion of majority may cause problems such as protests and/ or low demand. Game theory approach applied in this paper shows that probability of public acceptance towards a project is affected by overall public’s perception on Private sectors’ possible profit accumulation from the project. On the contrary, goodwill of the government and private coalition alone is not enough to minimize the probability of public opposition towards a PPP project. Additionally, the threat of loss or damage raised from public opposition does not affect the profit-maximization behavior of Private sectors.

Keywords: community satisfaction, game theory, non-cooperative, PPP, public policy

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Authors: Mathinee Khongsatid, Phusit Phukamchanoad, Sakapas Saengchai

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This research aims to study the democratic political socialization of the 5th and 6th Graders under the Authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok by using stratified sampling for probability sampling and using purposive sampling for non-probability sampling to collect data toward the distribution of questionnaires to 300 respondents. This covers all of the schools under the authority of Dusit District Office. The researcher analyzed the data by using descriptive statistics which include arithmetic mean and standard deviation. The result shows that 5th and 6th graders under the authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok, have displayed some characteristics following democratic political socialization both inside and outside classroom as well as outside school. However, the democratic political socialization in classroom through grouping and class participation is much more emphasized.

Keywords: democratic, political socialization, students grades 5-6, descriptive statistics

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Authors: Salim H. Al Salmani, Kevin Tansey, Mohammed S. Ozigis

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The study of the growth of built-up areas and settlement expansion is a major exercise that city managers seek to undertake to establish previous and current developmental trends. This is to ensure that there is an equal match of settlement expansion needs to the appropriate levels of services and infrastructure required. This research aims at demonstrating the potential of satellite image processing technique, harnessing the utility of single feature probability-object based image analysis technique in assessing the urban growth dynamics of the Muscat Governorate in Oman for the period 1990, 2002 and 2013. This need is fueled by the continuous expansion of the Muscat Governorate beyond predicted levels of infrastructural provision. Landsat Images of the years 1990, 2002 and 2013 were downloaded and preprocessed to forestall appropriate radiometric and geometric standards. A novel approach of probability filtering of the target feature segment was implemented to derive the spatial extent of the final Built-Up Area of the Muscat governorate for the three years period. This however proved to be a useful technique as high accuracy assessment results of 55%, 70%, and 71% were recorded for the Urban Landcover of 1990, 2002 and 2013 respectively. Furthermore, the Normalized Differential Built – Up Index for the various images were derived and used to consolidate the results of the SFP-OBIA through a linear regression model and visual comparison. The result obtained showed various hotspots where urbanization have sporadically taken place. Specifically, settlement in the districts (Wilayat) of AL-Amarat, Muscat, and Qurayyat experienced tremendous change between 1990 and 2002, while the districts (Wilayat) of AL-Seeb, Bawshar, and Muttrah experienced more sporadic changes between 2002 and 2013.

Keywords: urban growth, single feature probability, object based image analysis, landcover change

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

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Authors: Filippo Portera

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Usually standard algorithms employ a loss where each error is the mere absolute difference between the true value and the prediction, in case of a regression task. In the present, we present several error weighting schemes that are a generalization of the consolidated routine. We study both a binary classification model for Support Vextor Classification and a regression net for Multylayer Perceptron. Results proves that the error is never worse than the standard procedure and several times it is better.

Keywords: loss, binary-classification, MLP, weights, regression

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Authors: Jian-Heng Wu, Bor-Shen Lin

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The temperature-salinity relationship is one of the most important characteristics used for identifying water masses in marine research. Temperature-salinity characteristics, however, may change dynamically with respect to the geographic location and is quite sensitive to the depth at the same location. When depth is taken into consideration, however, it is not easy to compare the characteristics of different water masses efficiently for a wide range of areas of the ocean. In this paper, the Gaussian mixture model was proposed to analyze the temperature-salinity-depth characteristics of water masses, based on which comparison between water masses may be conducted. Gaussian mixture model could model the distribution of a random vector and is formulated as the weighting sum for a set of multivariate normal distributions. The temperature-salinity-depth data for different locations are first used to train a set of Gaussian mixture models individually. The distance between two Gaussian mixture models can then be defined as the weighting sum of pairwise Bhattacharyya distances among the Gaussian distributions. Consequently, the distance between two water masses may be measured fast, which allows the automatic and efficient comparison of the water masses for a wide range area. The proposed approach not only can approximate the distribution of temperature, salinity, and depth directly without the prior knowledge for assuming the regression family, but may restrict the complexity by controlling the number of mixtures when the amounts of samples are unevenly distributed. In addition, it is critical for knowledge discovery in marine research to represent, manage and share the temperature-salinity-depth characteristics flexibly and responsively. The proposed approach has been applied to a real-time visualization system of ocean data, which may facilitate the comparison of water masses by aggregating the data without degrading the discriminating capabilities. This system provides an interface for querying geographic locations with similar temperature-salinity-depth characteristics interactively and for tracking specific patterns of water masses, such as the Kuroshio near Taiwan or those in the South China Sea.

Keywords: water mass, Gaussian mixture model, data visualization, system framework

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Authors: Eglal Y. Ali, Smita Rao, Anat Lubetzky, Wen Ling

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Background: Postural abnormalities, rigidity, clumsiness, and frequent falls are common among children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). The central nervous system’s ability to process all reliable sensory inputs (weighting) and disregard potentially perturbing sensory input (reweighting) is critical for successfully maintaining standing postural control. This study examined how sensory inputs (visual and somatosensory) are weighted and reweighted to maintain standing postural control in children with ASD compared with typically developing (TD) children. Subjects: Forty (20 (TD) and 20 ASD) children and adolescents participated in this study. The groups were matched for age, weight, and height. Participants had normal somatosensory (no somatosensory hypersensitivity), visual, and vestibular perception. Participants with ASD were categorized with severity level 1 according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-V) and Social Responsiveness Scale. Methods: Using one force platform, the center of pressure (COP) was measured during quiet standing for 30 seconds, 3 times first standing on stable surface with eyes open (Condition 1), followed by randomization of the following 3 conditions: Condition 2 standing on stable surface with eyes closed, (visual input perturbed); Condition 3 standing on a compliant foam surface with eyes open, (somatosensory input perturbed); and Condition 4 standing on a compliant foam surface with eyes closed, (both visual and somatosensory inputs perturbed). Standing postural control was measured by three outcome measures: COP sway area, COP anterior-posterior (AP), and mediolateral (ML) path length (PL). A repeated measure mixed model analysis of variance was conducted to determine whether there was a significant difference between the two groups in the mean of the three outcome measures across the four conditions. Results: According to all three outcome measures, both groups showed a gradual increase in postural sway from condition 1 to condition 4. However, TD participants showed a larger postural sway than those with ASD. There was a significant main effect of the condition on three outcome measures (p< 0.05). Only the COP AP PL showed a significant main effect of the group (p<0.05) and a significant group by condition interaction (p<0.05). In COP AP PL, TD participants showed a significant difference between condition 2 and the baseline (p<0.05), whereas the ASD group did not. This suggests that the ASD group did not weigh visual input as much as the TD group. A significant difference between conditions for the ASD group was seen only when participants stood on foam regardless of the visual condition, suggesting that the ASD group relied more on the somatosensory inputs to maintain the standing postural control. Furthermore, the ASD group exhibited significantly smaller postural sway compared with TD participants during standing on a stable surface, whereas the postural sway of the ASD group was close to that of the TD group on foam. Conclusion: These results suggest that participants with high-functioning ASD (level 1, no somatosensory hypersensitivity in ankles and feet) over-rely on somatosensory inputs and use a stiffening strategy for standing postural control. This deviation in the reweighting mechanism might explain the postural abnormalities mentioned above among children with ASD.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorders, postural sway, sensory weighting and reweighting, standing postural control

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Authors: Ansoné Human, Nantes Kirsten, Tanja Verster, Willem D. Schutte

Abstract:

Every year the telecommunications industry suffers huge losses due to fraud. Mobile fraud, or generally, telecommunications fraud is the utilisation of telecommunication products or services to acquire money illegally from or failing to pay a telecommunication company. A South African telecommunication operator developed two internal fraud scorecards to mitigate future risks of application fraud events. The scorecards aim to predict the likelihood of an application being fraudulent and surprise fraudsters before they surprise the telecommunication operator by identifying fraud at the time of application. The scorecards are utilised in the vetting process to evaluate the applicant in terms of the fraud risk the applicant would present to the telecommunication operator. Telecommunication providers can utilise these scorecards to profile customers, as well as isolate fraudulent and/or high-risk applicants. We provide the complete methodology utilised in the development of the scorecards. Furthermore, a Determination and Discrimination (DD) ratio is provided in the methodology to select the most influential variables from a group of related variables. Throughout the development of these scorecards, the following was revealed regarding fraudulent cases and fraudster behaviour within the telecommunications industry: Fraudsters typically target high-value handsets. Furthermore, debit order dates scheduled for the end of the month have the highest fraud probability. The fraudsters target specific stores. Applicants who acquire an expensive package and receive a medium-income, as well as applicants who obtain an expensive package and receive a high income, have higher fraud percentages. If one month prior to application, the status of an account is already in arrears (two months or more), the applicant has a high probability of fraud. The applicants with the highest average spend on calls have a higher probability of fraud. If the amount collected changes from month to month, the likelihood of fraud is higher. Lastly, young and middle-aged applicants have an increased probability of being targeted by fraudsters than other ages.

Keywords: application fraud scorecard, predictive modeling, regression, telecommunications

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Authors: Izadi Banafsheh, Sedaghat Reza

Abstract:

Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) of machinery are a key recent issue concerning the automotive industry. It has always been a debated question what order or priority should be adopted for the MRO of machinery. This study attempts to examine several criteria including process sensitivity, average time between machine failures, average duration of repair, availability of parts, availability of maintenance personnel and workload through a literature review and experts survey so as to determine the condition of the machine. According to the mentioned criteria, the machinery were ranked in four modes below: A) Need for inspection, B) Need for minor repair, C) Need for part replacement, and D) Need for major repair. The Fuzzy AHP was employed to determine the weighting of criteria. At the end, the obtained weights were ranked through the AHP for each criterion, three groups were specified: shaving machines, assembly and painting in four modes. The statistical population comprises the elite in the Iranian automotive industry at IKCO covering operation managers, CEOs and maintenance professionals who are highly specialized in MRO and perfectly knowledgeable in how the machinery function. The information required for this study were collected from both desk research and field review, which eventually led to construction of a questionnaire handed out to the sample respondents in order to collect information on the subject matter. The results of the AHP for weighting the criteria revealed that the availability of maintenance personnel was the top priority at coefficient of 0.206, while the process sensitivity took the last priority at coefficient of 0.066. Furthermore, the results of TOPSIS for prioritizing the IKCO machinery suggested that at the mode where there is need for inspection, the assembly machines took the top priority while paining machines took the third priority. As for the mode where there is need for minor repairs, the assembly machines took the top priority while the third priority belonged to the shaving machines. As for the mode where there is need for parts replacement, the assembly machines took the top priority while the third belonged to the paining machinery. Finally, as for the mode where there is need for major repair, the assembly machines took the top priority while the third belonged to the paining machinery.

Keywords: maintenance, repair, overhaul, MRO, prioritization of machinery, fuzzy logic, AHP, TOPSIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Kannapha Amaruchkul

Abstract:

We formulate a dynamic overbooking model for a tour operator, in which most reservations contain at least two people. The cancellation rate and the timing of the cancellation may depend on the group size. We propose two overbooking policies, namely economic- and service-based. In an economic-based policy, we want to minimize the expected oversold and underused cost, whereas, in a service-based policy, we ensure that the probability of an oversold situation does not exceed the pre-specified threshold. To illustrate the applicability of our approach, we use tour package data in 2016-2018 from a tour operator in Thailand to build a data-driven robust optimization model, and we tested the proposed overbooking policy in 2019. We also compare the data-driven approach to the conventional approach of fitting data into a probability distribution.

Keywords: applied stochastic model, data-driven robust optimization, overbooking, revenue management, tour operator

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Authors: Shiwei Deng, Yang Bao

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a model-based regression test suite reducing approach that uses EFSM model dependence analysis and probability-driven greedy algorithm to reduce software regression test suites. The approach automatically identifies the difference between the original model and the modified model as a set of elementary model modifications. The EFSM dependence analysis is performed for each elementary modification to reduce the regression test suite, and then the probability-driven greedy algorithm is adopted to select the minimum set of test cases from the reduced regression test suite that cover all interaction patterns. Our initial experience shows that the approach may significantly reduce the size of regression test suites.

Keywords: dependence analysis, EFSM model, greedy algorithm, regression test

Procedia PDF Downloads 404

Authors: Xiaobin Liang, Wei Liang, Laibin Zhang, Xiaoyan Guo

Abstract:

Pipelines pass through coal mined gobs inevitably in the mining area, the stability of which has great influence on the safety of pipelines. After extensive literature study and field research, it was found that there are a few risk assessment methods for coal mined gob pipelines, and there is a lack of data on the gob sites. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is widely used based on expert opinions. However, the subjective opinions or lack of experience of individual experts may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Hence the accuracy of the results needs to be further improved. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to achieve this purpose by combining bow-tie model and cloud inference. The specific evaluation process is as follows: First, a bow-tie model composed of a fault tree and an event tree is established to graphically illustrate the probability and consequence indicators of pipeline failure. Second, the interval estimation method can be scored in the form of intervals to improve the accuracy of the results, and the censored mean algorithm is used to remove the maximum and minimum values of the score to improve the stability of the results. The golden section method is used to determine the weight of the indicators and reduce the subjectivity of index weights. Third, the failure probability and failure consequence scores of the pipeline are converted into three numerical features by using cloud inference. The cloud inference can better describe the ambiguity and volatility of the results which can better describe the volatility of the risk level. Finally, the cloud drop graphs of failure probability and failure consequences can be expressed, which intuitively and accurately illustrate the ambiguity and randomness of the results. A case study of a coal mine gob pipeline carrying natural gas has been investigated to validate the utility of the proposed method. The evaluation results of this case show that the probability of failure of the pipeline is very low, the consequences of failure are more serious, which is consistent with the reality.

Keywords: bow-tie model, natural gas pipeline, coal mine gob, cloud inference

Procedia PDF Downloads 223