Search results for: petrol stations

Authors: Abdullah Al Mamoon, Ataur Rahman

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Due to climate change, future rainfall will change at many locations on earth; however, the spatial and temporal patterns of this change are not easy to predict. One approach of predicting such future changes is to examine the trends in the historical rainfall data at a given region and use the identified trends to make future prediction. For this, a statistical trend test is commonly applied to the historical data. This paper examines the trends of daily extreme rainfall events from 30 rain gauges located in the State of Qatar. Rainfall data covering from 1962 to 2011 were used in the analysis. A combination of four non-parametric and parametric tests was applied to identify trends at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels. These tests are Mann-Kendall (MK), Spearman’s Rho (SR), Linear Regression (LR) and CUSUM tests. These tests showed both positive and negative trends throughout the country. Only eight stations showed positive (upward) trend, which were however not statistically significant. In contrast, significant negative (downward) trends were found at the 5% and 10% levels of significance in six stations. The MK, SR and LR tests exhibited very similar results. This finding has important implications in the derivation/upgrade of design rainfall for Qatar, which will affect design and operation of future urban drainage infrastructure in Qatar.

Keywords: trends, extreme rainfall, daily rainfall, Mann-Kendall test, climate change, Qatar

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Authors: Azadeh Golshan, Craig Evans, Phillip Geary, Abigail Morrow, Zoe Rogers, Marcel Maeder

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22 physicochemical variables have been determined in water samples collected weekly from January to December in 2013 from three sampling stations located within a major drinking water reservoir. Classical Multivariate Curve Resolution Alternating Least Squares (MCR-ALS) analysis was used to investigate the environmental factors associated with the physico-chemical variability of the water samples at each of the sampling stations. Matrix augmentation MCR-ALS (MA-MCR-ALS) was also applied, and the two sets of results were compared for interpretative clarity. Links between these factors, reservoir inflows and catchment land-uses were investigated and interpreted in relation to chemical composition of the water and their resolved geographical distribution profiles. The results suggested that the major factors affecting reservoir water quality were those associated with agricultural runoff, with evidence of influence on algal photosynthesis within the water column. Water quality variability within the reservoir was also found to be strongly linked to physical parameters such as water temperature and the occurrence of thermal stratification. The two methods applied (MCR-ALS and MA-MCR-ALS) led to similar conclusions; however, MA-MCR-ALS appeared to provide results more amenable to interpretation of temporal and geological variation than those obtained through classical MCR-ALS.

Keywords: drinking water reservoir, multivariate analysis, physico-chemical parameters, water quality

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Authors: Afifa Mohammed, Gloria Pignatta, Mattheos Santamouris, Evangelia Topriska

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Climate change is one of the global challenges that is exacerbated by the rapid growth of urbanizations. Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon can be considered as an effect of the urbanization and it is responsible together with the Climate change of the overheating of urban cities and downtowns. The purpose of this paper is to quantify and perform analysis of UHI Intensity in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), through checking the relationship between the UHI and different meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, winds speed, winds direction). Climate data were collected from three meteorological stations in Dubai (e.g., Dubai Airport - Station 1, Al-Maktoum Airport - Station 2 and Saih Al-Salem - Station 3) for a period of five years (e.g., 2014 – 2018) based upon hourly rates, and following clustering technique as one of the methodology tools of measurements. The collected data of each station were divided into six clusters upon the winds directions, either from the seaside or from the desert side, or from the coastal side which is in between both aforementioned winds sources, to investigate the relationship between temperature degrees and winds speed values through UHI measurements for Dubai Airport - Station 1 compared with the same of Al-Maktoum Airport - Station 2. In this case, the UHI value is determined by the temperature difference of both stations, where Station 1 is considered as located in an urban area and Station 2 is considered as located in a suburban area. The same UHI calculations has been applied for Al-Maktoum Airport - Station 2 and Saih Salem - Station 3 where Station 2 is considered as located in an urban area and Station 3 is considered as located in a suburban area. The performed analysis aims to investigate the relation between the two environmental parameters (e.g., Temperature and Winds Speed) and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity when the wind comes from the seaside, from the desert, and the remaining directions. The analysis shows that the correlation between the temperatures with both UHI intensity (e.g., temperature difference between Dubai Airport - Station 1 and Saih Al-Salem - Station 3 and between Al-Maktoum Airport - Station 2 and Saih Al-Salem - Station 3 (through station 1 & 2) is strong and has a negative relationship when the wind is coming from the seaside comparing between the two stations 1 and 2, while the relationship is almost zero (no relation) when the wind is coming from the desert side. The relation is independent between the two parameters, e.g., temperature and UHI, on Station 2, during the same procedures, the correlation between the urban heat island UHI phenomenon and wind speed is weak for both stations when wind direction is coming from the seaside comparing the station 1 and 2, while it was found that there’s no relationship between urban heat island phenomenon and wind speed when wind direction is coming from desert side. The conclusion could be summarized saying that the wind coming from the seaside or from the desert side have a different effect on UHI, which is strongly affected by meteorological parameters. The output of this study will enable more determination of UHI phenomenon under desert climate, which will help to inform about the UHI phenomenon and intensity and extract recommendations in two main categories such as planning of new cities and designing of buildings.

Keywords: meteorological data, subtropical desert climate, urban climate, urban heat island (UHI)

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Authors: Rachel Byrne

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Background: Due to patient and student safety concerns, combined with clinical teachers being redeployed to clinical practice, COVID-19 has resulted in a reduction in face-to-face teaching sessions for medical students. Traditionally such sessions are particularly important for final year medical students, especially in preparing for their final practical exams. A reduced student presence on the wards has also resulted in fewer opportunities for junior doctors to provide teaching sessions. This has implications for junior doctors achieving their own curriculum outcomes for teaching, as well as potentially hindering the development of a future interest in medical education. Aims: The aims of the study are 1) To create a safe face-to-face teaching environment during COVID-19 which focussed on exam preparation for final year medical students, 2) To provide a platform for doctors to gain teaching experience, 3 ) to enable doctors to gain feedback or assessments on their teaching, 4) To create beginners guide to designing a new teaching program for future junior doctors. Methods: We created a program of timed clinical stations consisting of four sessions every five weeks during the student’s medicine attachment. Each session could be attended by 6 students and consisted of 6 stations ran by junior doctors, with each station following social distancing and personal protective equipment requirements. Junior doctors were asked to design their own stations. The sessions ran out-of-hours on weekday evenings and were optional for the students. Results: 95/95 students and 20/40 doctors involved in the programme completed feedback. 100% (n=95) of students strongly agreed/agreed that sessions were aimed at an appropriate level and provided constructive feedback. 100% (n=95) of students stated they felt more confident in their abilities and would recommend the session to peers. 90% (n=18) of the teachers strongly agreed/agreed that they felt more confident in their teaching abilities and that the sessions had improved their own medical knowledge. 85% (n=17) of doctors had a teaching assessment completed, and 83% (n=16) said the program had made them consider a career in medical education. The difficulties of creating such a program were highlighted throughout, and a beginner’s guide was created with the hopes of helping future doctors who are interested in teaching address the common obstacles.

Keywords: COVID-19, education, safety, medical

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Marco Cifrodelli, Corrado Corradini

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The trend of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfalls seems to be different depending on the investigated area of the world. In this work, the impact of climate change on extreme rainfalls in Umbria, an inland region of central Italy, is examined using data recorded during the period 1921-2015 by 10 representative rain gauge stations. The study area is characterized by a complex orography, with altitude ranging from 200 to more than 2000 m asl. The climate is very different from zone to zone, with mean annual rainfall ranging from 650 to 1450 mm and mean annual air temperature from 3.3 to 14.2°C. Over the past 15 years, this region has been affected by four significant droughts as well as by six dangerous flood events, all with very large impact in economic terms. A least-squares linear trend analysis of annual maximums over 60 time series selected considering 6 different durations (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h, 48 h) showed about 50% of positive and 50% of negative cases. For the same time series the non-parametrical Mann-Kendall test with a significance level 0.05 evidenced only 3% of cases characterized by a negative trend and no positive case. Further investigations have also demonstrated that the variance and covariance of each time series can be considered almost stationary. Therefore, the analysis on the magnitude of extreme rainfalls supplies the indication that an evident trend in the change of values in the Umbria region does not exist. However, also the frequency of rainfall events, with particularly high rainfall depths values, occurred during a fixed period has also to be considered. For all selected stations the 2-day rainfall events that exceed 50 mm were counted for each year, starting from the first monitored year to the end of 2015. Also, this analysis did not show predominant trends. Specifically, for all selected rain gauge stations the annual number of 2-day rainfall events that exceed the threshold value (50 mm) was slowly decreasing in time, while the annual cumulated rainfall depths corresponding to the same events evidenced trends that were not statistically significant. Overall, by using a wide available dataset and adopting simple methods, the influence of climate change on the heavy rainfalls in the Umbria region is not detected.

Keywords: climate changes, rainfall extremes, rainfall magnitude and frequency, central Italy

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Authors: Ankur P. Sati, Manju Mohan

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The hazardous combination of smoke and pollutant gases, smog, is harmful for health. There are strong evidences that the Agricultural waste burning (AWB) in the Northern India leads to adverse air quality in Delhi and its surrounding regions. A severe smog episode was observed over Delhi, India during November 2012 which resulted in very low visibility and various respiratory problems. Very high values of pollutants (PM10 as high as 989 µg m-3, PM2.5 as high as 585 µg m-3 an NO2 as high as 540 µg m-3) were measured all over Delhi during the smog episode. Ultra Violet Aerosol Index (UVAI) from Aura satellite and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) are used in the present study along with the output trajectories from HYSPLIT model and the in-situ data. Satellite data also reveal that AOD, UVAI are always at its highest during the farmfires duration in Punjab region of India and the extent of these farmfires may be increasing. It is observed that during the smog episode all the AOD, UVAI, PM2.5 and PM10 values surpassed those of the Diwali period (one of the most polluted events in the city) by a considerable amount at all stations across Delhi. The parameters used from the remote sensing data and the ground based observations at various stations across Delhi are very well in agreement about the intensity of Smog episode. The analysis clearly shows that regional pollution can have greater contributions in deteriorating the air quality than the local under adverse meteorological conditions.

Keywords: smog, farmfires, AOD, remote sensing

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Authors: Djeddi Hamssa, Kherief Necereddine Saliha, Mehennaoui Fatima Zohra

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The objectives of this study are to use different parameters to assess the current pollution status of sediments in Rhumel wadi located in the North-East of Algeria (Constantine), two stations were selected in strategic points and sampled at three occasions on Sptember 2014, Junary 2015 and April 2015. Parameters used in this study were a physico-chimical analysis of water (pH, CE, Dissolved O2), sediments (pH, CE, CaCo3, MO) and contamination level of sediments by cadmium, completed by biological testing and analysis of existing benthic community. The results of the physico-chemical parameters show that the water temperature is average and seasonal, the pH value is acidic, does not exceed 6.64. The amplitude variation may be important from upstream to downstream. The generally high electrical conductivity, for the carbonate nature of the watershed increases from upstream to downstream. The waters of the Rhumel wadi are excessively mineralized, dissolved oxygen, a vital factor for benthic community wildlife downstream decreases with increasing organic loading; oxygen is consumed by the microorganisms to its degradation. Analysis of the benthic fauna and calculating the biotic index show a clear excessive pollution for both upstream and downstream stations.

Keywords: biological analysis, benthic fauna, sediments contamination, cadmium

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Authors: Abigail Gragg

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The goal of this research study was to adjudicate if implementing Howard Gardner’s multiple levels of intelligence would enhance student achievement levels in an Algebra 1 College Preparatory class. This was conducted within every class by incorporating one level of the eight levels of intelligence into small group work in stations. Every class was conducted utilizing small-group instruction. Achievement levels were measured through various forms of collected data that expressed student understandings in class through formative assessments versus student understandings on summative assessments. The data samples included: assessments (i.e. summative and formative assessments), observable data, video recordings, a daily log book, student surveys, and checklists kept during the observation periods. Formative assessments were analyzed during each class period to measure in-class understanding. Summative assessments were dissected per question per accuracy to review the effects of each intelligence implemented. The data was collated into a coding workbook for further analysis to conclude the resulting themes of the research. These themes include 1) there was no correlation to multiple levels of intelligence enhancing student achievement, 2) bodily-kinesthetic intelligence showed to be the intelligence that had the most improvement on test questions and 3) out of all of the bits of intelligence, interpersonal intelligence enhanced student understanding in class.

Keywords: stations, small group instruction, multiple levels of intelligence, Mathematics, Algebra 1, student achievement, secondary school, instructional Pedagogies

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Authors: Surinder Deswal, Vineet Verma

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Air Quality Index (AQI) is used as a tool to indicate the level of severity and disseminate the information on air pollution to enable the public to understand the health and environmental impacts of air pollutant concentration levels. The annual and seasonal variation of criteria air pollutants concentration based on the National Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Programme has been conducted for a period of nine years (2006-2014) using the AQI system. AQI was calculated using IND-AQI methodology and Maximum Operator Concept is applied. An attempt has been made to quantify the variations in AQI on an annual and seasonal basis over a period of nine years. Further, year-wise frequency of occurrence of AQI in each category for all the five stations is analysed, which presents in depth analysis of trends over the period of study. The best air quality was observed in the Noida residential area, followed by Noida industrial area during the study period; whereas, Bulandshahar industrial area and Faridabad residential area were observed to have the worst air quality. A shift in the worst air quality from winter to summer season has also been observed during the study period. Further, the level of Respirable Suspended Particulate Matter was found to be above permissible limit at all the stations. The present study helps in enhancing public awareness and calls for the need of immediate measures to be taken to counter-effect the cause of the increasing level of air pollution.

Keywords: air quality index, annual trends, criteria pollutants, seasonal variation

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Authors: Dai Yizheng, Chen-Yang Zhang

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As station-city integration has been widely accepted as a strategy for mixed-use development, a quantitative analysis of the functional characteristics of urban complexes based on station-city integration is urgently needed. Taking 15 railway stations in European, North American, and East Asian cities as the research objects, this study analyzes their functional proportion, functional positioning, and functional correlation with respect to four categories of functional facilities for both railway passenger flow and subway passenger flow. We found that (1) the functional proportion of urban complexes was mainly concentrated in three models: complementary, dominant, and equilibrium. (2) The mathematical model affected by the functional proportion was created to evaluate the functional positioning of an urban complex at three scales: station area, city, and region. (3) The strength of the correlation between the functional area and passenger flow was revealed via data analysis using Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Finally, the findings of this study provide a valuable reference for research on similar topics in other countries that are developing station-city integration.

Keywords: urban complex, station-city integration, mixed-use, function, quantitative analysis

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Authors: Samet Sen, Yalcin Alver

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Before Izmir Commuter Rail System (IZBAN), most of the respondents along the railway were making their trips by city buses, minibuses or private cars. After IZBAN was put into service, some people changed their previous trip behaviors and they started travelling by IZBAN. Therefore a big travel demand in IZBAN occurred. In this study, the characteristics of passengers and their trip behaviors are found out based on the longitudinal data conducted via two wave trip surveys. Just after one year from IZBAN's opening, the first wave of the surveys was carried out among 539 passengers at six stations during morning peak hours between 07.00 am-09.30 am. The second wave was carried out among 669 passengers at the same six stations two years after the first wave during the same morning peak hours. As a result of this study, the respondents' socio-economic specifications, the distribution of trips by region, the impact of IZBAN on transport modes, the changes in travel time and travel cost and satisfaction data were obtained. These data enabled to compare two waves and explain the changes in socio-economic factors and trip behaviors. In both waves, 10 % of the respondents stopped driving their own cars and they started to take IZBAN. This is an important development in solving traffic problems. More public transportation means less traffic congestion.

Keywords: commuter rail system, comparative study, longitudinal survey, public transportation

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Authors: Ons Sassi, Wahiba Ramdane Cherif-Khettaf, Ammar Oulamara

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In this paper, we consider a new real-life Heterogenous Electric Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Dependant Charging Costs and a Mixed Fleet (HEVRP-TDMF), in which a set of geographically scattered customers have to be served by a mixed fleet of vehicles composed of a heterogenous fleet of Electric Vehicles (EVs), having different battery capacities and operating costs, and Conventional Vehicles (CVs). We include the possibility of charging EVs in the available charging stations during the routes in order to serve all customers. Each charging station offers charging service with a known technology of chargers and time-dependent charging costs. Charging stations are also subject to operating time windows constraints. EVs are not necessarily compatible with all available charging technologies and a partial charging is allowed. Intermittent charging at the depot is also allowed provided that constraints related to the electricity grid are satisfied. The objective is to minimize the number of employed vehicles and then minimize the total travel and charging costs. In this study, we present a Mixed Integer Programming Model and develop a Charging Routing Heuristic and a Local Search Heuristic based on the Inject-Eject routine with three different insertion strategies. All heuristics are tested on real data instances.

Keywords: charging problem, electric vehicle, heuristics, local search, optimization, routing problem

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Authors: Ahmed N. Shmroukh, Gamal Tag Abdel-Jaber, Rashed D. Aldughpassi

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The feasibility of improving the performance of the proposed solar still unit which operated in very hot climate is investigated numerically and verified with experimental data. This solar desalination unit with proposed auxiliary device as seawater preheating system using petrol based textherm oil was used to produce pure fresh water from seawater. The effective evaporation area of basin is about 1 m². The unit was tested in two main operation modes which are normal and with seawater preheating system. The results showed that, there is good agreement between the theoretical data and the experimental data; this means that the numerical model can be accurately dependable for predicting the proposed solar still performance and design parameters. The results also showed that the fresh water productivity of the solar still in the modified preheating case which is higher than normal case, leads to an increase in productivity of 42%.

Keywords: improving productivity, seawater desalination, solar stills, theoretical model

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Authors: Evan Hajani, Ataur Rahman, Khaled Haddad

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Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in many different ways such as increase in evaporation and rainfalls. There have been growing interests among researchers to identify the nature of trends in historical rainfall data in many different parts of the world. This paper examines the trends in annual maximum rainfall data from 30 stations in New South Wales, Australia by using two non-parametric tests, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho (SR). Rainfall data were analyzed for fifteen different durations ranging from 6 min to 3 days. It is found that the sub-hourly durations (6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 48 minutes) show statistically significant positive (upward) trends whereas longer duration (sub-daily and daily) events generally show a statistically significant negative (downward) trend. It is also found that the MK test and SR test provide notably different results for some rainfall event durations considered in this study. Since shorter duration sub-hourly rainfall events show positive trends at many stations, the design rainfall data based on stationary frequency analysis for these durations need to be adjusted to account for the impact of climate change. These shorter durations are more relevant to many urban development projects based on smaller catchments having a much shorter response time.

Keywords: climate change, Mann-Kendall test, Spearman’s Rho test, trends, design rainfall

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Authors: Michael Howard

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The growing popularity of electric vehicles in the United States requires an ever-expanding infrastructure of commercial DC fast charging stations. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates 33,355 publicly available DC fast charging stations as of September 2023. In 2017, 115,370 gasoline stations were operating in the United States, much more ubiquitous than DC fast chargers. Range anxiety is an important impediment to the adoption of electric vehicles and is even more relevant in underserved regions in the country. The peer-to-peer energy marketplace helps fill the demand by allowing private home and small business owners to rent their 240 Volt, level-2 charging facilities. The existing, publicly accessible outlets are wrapped with a Cloud-connected microcontroller managing security and charging sessions. These microcontrollers act as Edge devices communicating with a Cloud message broker, while both buyer and seller users interact with the framework via a web-based user interface. The database storage used by the marketplace framework is a key component in both the cost of development and the performance that contributes to the user experience. A traditional storage solution is the SQL database. The architecture and query language have been in existence since the 1970s and are well understood and documented. The Structured Query Language supported by the query engine provides fine granularity with user query conditions. However, difficulty in scaling across multiple nodes and cost of its server-based compute have resulted in a trend in the last 20 years towards other NoSQL, serverless approaches. In this study, we evaluate the NoSQL vs. SQL solutions through a comparison of Google Cloud Firestore and Cloud SQL MySQL offerings. The comparison pits Google's serverless, document-model, non-relational, NoSQL against the server-base, table-model, relational, SQL service. The evaluation is based on query latency, flexibility/scalability, and cost criteria. Through benchmarking and analysis of the architecture, we determine whether Firestore can support the energy marketplace storage needs and if the introduction of a GraphQL middleware layer can overcome its deficiencies.

Keywords: non-relational, relational, MySQL, mitigate, Firestore, SQL, NoSQL, serverless, database, GraphQL

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Authors: Wei Wang, Yannick Liu, Lu Zhen, H. Wang

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Maritime transport plays an important role in global economic development but also inevitably faces increasing pressures from all sides, such as ship operating cost reduction and environmental protection. An ideal innovation to address these pressures is electric ships. The electric ship is in the early stage. Considering the special characteristics of electric ships, i.e., travel range limit, to guarantee the efficient operation of electric ships, the service network needs to be re-designed carefully. This research designs a cost-efficient and environmentally friendly service network for electric ships, including the location of charging stations, charging plan, route planning, ship scheduling, and ship deployment. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model with the objective of minimizing total cost comprised of charging cost, the construction cost of charging stations, and fixed cost of ships. A case study using data of the shipping network along the Yangtze River is conducted to evaluate the performance of the model. Two operating scenarios are used: an electric ship scenario where all the transportation tasks are fulfilled by electric ships and a conventional ship scenario where all the transportation tasks are fulfilled by fuel oil ships. Results unveil that the total cost of using electric ships is only 42.8% of using conventional ships. Using electric ships can reduce 80% SOx, 93.47% NOx, 89.47% PM, and 42.62% CO2, but will consume 2.78% more time to fulfill all the transportation tasks. Extensive sensitivity analyses are also conducted for key operating factors, including battery capacity, charging speed, volume capacity, and a service time limit of transportation task. Implications from the results are as follows: 1) it is necessary to equip the ship with a large capacity battery when the number of charging stations is low; 2) battery capacity will influence the number of ships deployed on each route; 3) increasing battery capacity will make the electric ship more cost-effective; 4) charging speed does not affect charging amount and location of charging station, but will influence the schedule of ships on each route; 5) there exists an optimal volume capacity, at which all costs and total delivery time are lowest; 6) service time limit will influence ship schedule and ship cost.

Keywords: cost reduction, electric ship, environmental protection, sustainable shipping

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Authors: Ngo Xuan Quang, Tran Thanh Thai, Ann Vanreusel

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The Ba Lai dam construction was created in 2000 in the Ba Lai estuarine river, Ben Tre province, Vietnam to prevent marine water infiltration, drainage and de-acidification, and to build a reservoir of freshwater for land reclamation in the Ba Lai tributary. However, this dam is considered as an environmental failure for the originally connected estuarine and river ecosystem, especially to bad effect to benthic fauna distribution. This research aims to study applying free living nematode communities’ distribution in disturbance of dam construction as bioindicator to detect environmental impact. Nematode samples were collected together measuring physical–chemical environmental parameters such as chlorophyll, CPE, coliform, nutrient, grain size, salinity, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, conductivity, temperature in three stations within three replicates. Results showed that free living nematode communities at the dam construction was significantly low densities, low diversity (Hurlbert’s index, Hill diversity indices) and very low maturity index in comparison with two remaining stations. Strong correlation of nematode feeding types and communities’ structure was found in relation with sediment grain size and nutrient enrichment such nitrite, nitrate, phosphate and pigment concentration. Moreover, greatly negative link between nematode maturity index with nutrient parameters can serve as warning organic pollution of the Ba Lai river due to dam construction.

Keywords: Ba Lai, dam impact, nematode, environment

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Authors: Leila Rashidian, Abbas Ebrahimi

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The development of industrial activities, increase in fossil fuel consumption, vehicles, destruction of forests and grasslands, changes in land use, and population growth have caused to increase the amount of greenhouse gases especially CO₂ in the atmosphere in recent decades. This has led to global warming and climate change. In the present paper, we have investigated the trend of climate change according to the data simulation during the time interval of 2010-2030 in the Fars province. In this research, the daily climatic parameters such as maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and number of sunny hours during the 1977-2008 time interval for synoptic stations of Shiraz and Abadeh and during 1995-2008 for Lar stations and also the output of HADCM₃ model in 2010-2030 time interval have been used based on the A₂ propagation scenario. The results of the model show that the average temperature will increase by about 1 degree centigrade and the amount of precipitation will increase by 23.9% compared to the observational data. In conclusion, according to the temperature increase in this province, the amount of precipitation in the form of snow will be reduced and precipitations often will occur in the form of rain. This 1-degree centigrade increase during the season will reduce production by 6 to 10% because of shortening the growing period of wheat.

Keywords: climate change, Lars WG, HADCM3, Gillan province, climatic parameters, A2 scenario

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Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hosuk Shin, Eun-Hak Lee, Seung-Young Kho

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This study analyzed and visualized the rental and return data of the public bike sharing system in Seoul, Ttareungyi, from September 2015 to October 2017. With the surge of system users, the number of times of collection and distribution in 2017 increased by three times compared to 2016. The city plans to deploy about 20,000 public bicycles by the end of 2017 to expand the system. Based on about 3.3 million historical data, we calculated the average trip time and the number of trips from one station to another station. The mobility patterns between stations are graphically displayed using R and Tableau. Demand for public bike sharing system is heavily influenced by day and weather. As a result of plotting the number of rentals and returns of some stations on weekdays and weekends at intervals of one hour, there was a difference in rental patterns. As a result of analysis of the rental and return patterns by time of day, there were a lot of returns at the morning peak and more rentals at the afternoon peak at the center of the city. It means that stock of bikes varies largely in the time zone and public bikes should be rebalanced timely. The result of this study can be applied as a primary data to construct the demand forecasting function of the station when establishing the rebalancing strategy of the public bicycle.

Keywords: demand forecasting, mobility patterns, public bike sharing system, visualization

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Authors: F.I. Adeosun, A.A. Idowu, D.O. Odulate,

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The aims of carrying out this experiment were to determine the water quality and to investigate if the various human and ecological activities around the river have any effect on the physico-chemical parameters of the river’s resources with a view to effectively utilizing these resources. Water samples were collected from two stations on the surface water of Lower Ogun River Akomoje biweekly for a period of 5 months (January to May, 2011). Results showed that temperature ranged between 24.0-30.7oC, transparency (0.53-1.00 m), depth (1.0-3.88 m), alkalinity (4.5-14.5 mg/l), nitrates (0.235-5.445 mg/l), electrical conductivity (140-190µS/cm), dissolved oxygen (4.12-5.32 mg/l), phosphates (0.02 mg/l-0.7 5 mg/l) and total dissolved solids (70-95).The parameters at the deep end (station A) accounted for the bulk of the highest values; there was however no significant differences between the stations at P˂0.05 with the exception of transparency, depth, total dissolved solids and electrical conductivity. The phosphate value was relatively low which accounted for the low productivity and high transparency. The results obtained from the physico-chemical parameters agreed with the limits set by both national and international bodies for drinking and fish growth. It was however observed that during the period of data collection, catch was low and this could be attributed to low level of primary productivity due to the quality of physico-chemical parameters of the water. It is recommended that the agencies involved in the management of the river should put the right policies in place that will effectively enhance proper exploitation of the water resources. More research should also be carried out on the physico-chemical parameters since this work only studied the water for five months.

Keywords: physical, chemical, parameters, water quality, Ogunriver

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Authors: Andrzej Wałęga, Marta Cebulska, Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek, Wojciech Młocek, Agnieszka Wałęga, Tommaso Caloiero

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Drought is one of the natural phenomena influencing many aspects of human activities like food production, agriculture, industry, and the ecological conditions of the environment. In the area of the Polish Carpathians, there are periods with a deficit of rainwater and an increasing frequency in dry months, especially in the cold half of the year. The aim of this work is a spatial and temporal analysis of drought, expressed as SPI in a heterogenous area of the Polish Carpathian and of the highland Region in the Central part of Europe based on long-term precipitation data. Also, to our best knowledge, for the first time in this work, drought characteristics analyzed via the SPI were discussed based on the atmospheric circulation calendar. The study region is the Upper Vistula Basin, located in the southern and south-eastern part of Poland. In this work, monthly precipitation from 56 rainfall stations was analysed from 1961 to 2022. The 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used as indicators of meteorological drought. For the 3-month SPI, the main climatic mechanisms determining extreme droughts were defined based on the calendar of synoptic circulations. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect the trend of extreme droughts. Statistically significant trends of SPI were observed on 52.7% of all analyzed stations, and in most cases, a positive trend was observed. Statistically significant trends were more frequently observed in stations located in the western part of the analyzed region. Long-term droughts, represented by the 12-month SPI, occurred in all stations but not in all years. Short-term droughts (3-month SPI) were most frequent in the winter season, 6 and 9-month SPI in winter and spring, and 12-month SPI in winter and autumn, respectively. The spatial distribution of drought was highly diverse. The most intensive drought occurred in 1984, with the 6-month SPI covering 98% of the analyzed region and the 9 and 12-month SPI covering 90% of the entire region. Droughts exhibit a seasonal pattern, with a dominant 10-year periodicity for all analyzed variants of SPI. Additionally, Fourier analysis revealed a 2-year periodicity for the 3-, 6-, and 9-month SPI and a 31-year periodicity for the 12-month SPI. The results provide insights into the typical climatic conditions in Poland, with strong seasonality in precipitation. The study highlighted that short-term extreme droughts, represented by the 3-month SPI, are often caused by anticyclonic situations with high-pressure wedges Ka and Wa, and anticyclonic West as observed in 52.3% of cases. These findings are crucial for understanding the spatial and temporal variability of short and long-term extreme droughts in Central Europe, particularly for the agriculture sector dominant in the northern part of the analyzed region, where drought frequency is highest.

Keywords: atmospheric circulation, drought, precipitation, SPI, the Upper Vistula Basin

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Authors: Teresa Azevedo PerdicoúLis, Paulo Lopes Dos Santos

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The conceptualisation of the problem of network optimisation as a noncooperative game sets up a holistic interactive approach that brings together different network features (e.g., com-pressor stations, sources, and pipelines, in the gas context) where the optimisation objectives are different, and a single optimisation procedure becomes possible without having to feed results from diverse software packages into each other. A mathematical model of this type, where independent entities take action, offers the ideal modularity and subsequent problem decomposition in view to design a decentralised algorithm to optimise the operation and management of the network. In a game framework, compressor stations and sources are under-stood as players which communicate through network connectivity constraints–the pipeline model. That is, in a scheme similar to tatonnementˆ, the players appoint their best settings and then interact to check for network feasibility. The devolved degree of network unfeasibility informs the players about the ’quality’ of their settings, and this two-phase iterative scheme is repeated until a global optimum is obtained. Due to network transients, its optimisation needs to be assessed at different points of the control interval. For this reason, the proposed approach to optimisation has two stages: (i) the first stage computes along the period of optimisation in order to fulfil the requirement just mentioned; (ii) the second stage is initialised with the solution found by the problem computed at the first stage, and computes in the end of the period of optimisation to rectify the solution found at the first stage. The liability of the proposed scheme is proven correct on an abstract prototype and three example networks.

Keywords: connectivity matrix, gas network optimisation, large-scale, noncooperative game, system decomposition

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Authors: Radhika Ramanchi

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The oil market during 2014-2015 in India with large price fluctuations is very confusing to individual investor. The drop in oil prices supported stocks of some oil marketing companies (OMCs) like Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation etc their shares rose 84.74%, 128.63% and 59.16%, respectively. Lower oil prices, and lower current account, a smaller subsidy burden are the reasons for outperformance. On the other hand, lower crude prices giving downward pressure on upstream companies like Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd (ONGC) and Reliance Petroleum (RIL) Oil India Ltd (OIL). Not having clarity on a subsidy sharing mechanism is the reason for downward trend on these stocks. Shares of ONGC and RIL have underperformed so far in 2015. When the oil price fall profits of the companies will effect, generate less money and may cut their dividends in Long run. In this situation this paper objective is to study investment strategies in oil marketing companies, by applying CAPM and Security Market Line.

Keywords: petrol industry, price fluctuations, sharp single index model, SML, Markowitz model

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Authors: Yu-Wen Chen, Szu-Wei Huang, Chung-Hsiang Mu, Kelvin Cheng

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This paper developed a data-driven based model to deal with the causality between the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS, by Environmental Protection Administration, Taiwan) in industrial factories, and the air quality around environment. Compared to the heavy burden of traditional numerical models of regional weather and air pollution simulation, the lightweight burden of the proposed model can provide forecasting hourly with current observations of weather, air pollution and emissions from factories. The observation data are included wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, temperature and others. The observations can be collected real time from Open APIs of civil IoT Taiwan, which are sourced from 439 weather stations, 10,193 qualitative air stations, 77 national quantitative stations and 140 CEMS quantitative industrial factories. This study completed a causal inference engine and gave an air pollution forecasting for the next 12 hours related to local industrial factories. The outcomes of the pollution forecasting are produced hourly with a grid resolution of 1km*1km on IIoTC (Industrial Internet of Things Cloud) and saved in netCDF4 format. The elaborated procedures to generate forecasts comprise data recalibrating, outlier elimination, Kriging Interpolation and particle tracking and random walk techniques for the mechanisms of diffusion and advection. The solution of these equations reveals the causality between factories emission and the associated air pollution. Further, with the aid of installed real-time flue emission (Total Suspension Emission, TSP) sensors and the mentioned forecasted air pollution map, this study also disclosed the converting mechanism between the TSP and PM2.5/PM10 for different region and industrial characteristics, according to the long-term data observation and calibration. These different time-series qualitative and quantitative data which successfully achieved a causal inference engine in cloud for factory management control in practicable. Once the forecasted air quality for a region is marked as harmful, the correlated factories are notified and asked to suppress its operation and reduces emission in advance.

Keywords: continuous emission monitoring system, total suspension particulates, causal inference, air pollution forecast, IoT

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Authors: Iyagbaye O. Rich, Omoigberale O. Michael, Iyagbaye A. Louis

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The physical, chemical parameters and some trace contents of Ugbogui in Edo State, Nigeria were investigated from August 2015 to April 2016. Four stations were studied from upstream to downstream using standard methods. A total of thirty-three (33) physical and chemical characteristics and trace metal contents were examined; Air and water temperatures, depth, transparency, colour, turbidity, flow velocity, pH, total alkalinity, conductivity and dissolved solids etc. Other includes dissolved oxygen, oxygen saturation, biochemical oxygen demand, chloride, phosphate, sodium, nitrate, sulphate, potassium, calcium, magnesium, iron, lead, copper, zinc, nickel, cadmium, vanadium and chromium. Eleven (11) parameters exhibited clear seasonal variations. However, there were high significant differences (p < 0.01) in the values of depth, colour, total suspended solid, biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, chloride, bicarbonate, phosphate, sulphate, iron, manganese, zinc, copper, chromium and cadmium among the stations. The anthropogenic activities had negatively impacted at station 3 of the river, although most of the recorded values were still within permissible limits.

Keywords: anthropogenic activities, Nigeria, permissible limits, physical and chemical parameters, trace metal, water quality

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Authors: Ina Nasto, Denada Sota, Kerol Sacaj, Brunilda Veshaj, Hajdar Kicaj

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Rocky shores are often used as models to describe the dynamics of biodiversity around the world, making them one of the most studied marine habitats and their communities. The variability in the number of species and the abundance of hard-bottom benthic animal communities on the coast of Triporti, north of the Bay of Vlora, Albania is described in relation to environmental variables using multivariate analysis. The purpose of this study is to monitor the species composition, quantitative characteristics, and seasonal variations of the benthic macroinvertebrate populations of the shallow rocky shores of the Triportit-Vlora area, as well as the assessment of the ecological condition of these populations. The rocky coast of Triport, with a length of 7 km, was divided into three sampling stations, with three transects each of 50m. The monitoring of benthic macroinvertebrates in these areas was carried out in two seasons, spring and summer (June and August 2021). In each station and sampling season, estimates of the total and average density for each species, the presence constant, and the assessment of biodiversity were calculated using the Shannon–Wiener and the Simpson index. The species composition, the quantitative characteristics of the populations, and the indicators mentioned above were analyzed in a comparative way, both between the seasons within one station and between the three stations with each other. Statistical processing of the data was carried out to analyze the changes between the seasons and between the sampling stations for the species composition, population density, as well as correlation between them. A total of 105 benthic macroinvertebrate taxa were found, dominated by Molluscs, Annelids, and Arthropods. The small density of species and the low degree of stability of the macrozoobenthic community are indicators of the poor ecological condition and environmental impact in the studied areas. Algal cover, the diversity of coastal microhabitats, and the degree of coastal exposure to waves play an important role in the characteristics of macrozoobenthos populations in the studied areas. Also, the rocky shores are of special interest because, in the infralittoral of these areas, there are dense kelp forests with Gongolaria barbata, Ericaria crinita as well as fragmented areas with Posidonia oceanica that reach the coast, priority habitats of special conservation importance in the Mediterranean.

Keywords: Macrozoobenthic communities, Shannon–Wiener, Triporti, Vlore, rocky shore

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Authors: S. Chuenchooklin

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This research was conducted in the Lower Ping River Basin downstream of the Bhumibol Dam and the Lower Wang River Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. Most of the tributary streams of the Ping can be considered as ungauged catchments. There are 10- pumping station installation at both river banks of the Ping in Tak Province. Recently, most of them could not fully operate due to the water amount in the river below the level that would be pumping, even though included water from the natural river and released flow from the Bhumibol Dam. The aim of this research was to increase the performance of those pumping stations using weir projects in the Ping. Therefore, the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) was applied to study the hydraulic behavior of water surface profiles in the Ping River with both cases of existing conditions and proposed weirs during the violent flood in 2011 and severe drought in 2013. Moreover, the hydrologic modeling system (HMS) was applied to simulate lateral streamflow hydrograph from ungauged catchments of the Ping. The results of HEC-RAS model calibration with existing conditions in 2011 showed best trial roughness coefficient for the main channel of 0.026. The simulated water surface levels fitted to observation data with R2 of 0.8175. The model was applied to 3 proposed cascade weirs with 2.35 m in height and found surcharge water level only 0.27 m higher than the existing condition in 2011. Moreover, those weirs could maintain river water levels and increase of those pumping performances during less river flow in 2013.

Keywords: HEC-RAS, HMS, pumping stations, cascade weirs

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Authors: Jin-Qu Chen, Jie Liu, Yong Yin, Zi-Qi Ju, Yu-Yao Wu

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Increase in travel fare and station’s failure will have huge impact on passengers’ travel. The Urban Rail Transit (URT) station’s accessibility reliability under increasing travel fare and station failure are analyzed in this paper. Firstly, the passenger’s travel path is resumed based on stochastic user equilibrium and Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data. Secondly, calculating station’s importance by combining LeaderRank algorithm and Ratio of Station Affected Passenger Volume (RSAPV), and then the station’s accessibility evaluation indicators are proposed based on the analysis of passenger’s travel characteristic. Thirdly, station’s accessibility under different scenarios are measured and rate of accessibility change is proposed as station’s accessibility reliability indicator. Finally, the accessibility of Hangzhou metro stations is analyzed by the formulated models. The result shows that Jinjiang station and Liangzhu station are the most important and convenient station in the Hangzhou metro, respectively. Station failure and increase in travel fare and station failure have huge impact on station’s accessibility, except for increase in travel fare. Stations in Hangzhou metro Line 1 have relatively worse accessibility reliability and Fengqi Road station’s accessibility reliability is weakest. For Hangzhou metro operational department, constructing new metro line around Line 1 and protecting Line 1’s station preferentially can effective improve the accessibility reliability of Hangzhou metro.

Keywords: automatic fare collection data, AFC, station’s accessibility reliability, stochastic user equilibrium, urban rail transit, URT

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Authors: Maryam Hajibaba, Mohsen Soltanpour, Mehrnoosh Abbasian, S. Abbas Haghshenas

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This paper aims to evaluate the main role of mangroves forests on the unique hydrodynamic characteristics of the Khuran Strait (KS) in the Persian Gulf. Investigation of hydrodynamic conditions of KS is vital to predict and estimate sedimentation and erosion all over the protected areas north of Qeshm Island. KS (or Tang-e-Khuran) is located between Qeshm Island and the Iranian mother land and has a minimum width of approximately two kilometers. Hydrodynamics of the strait is dominated by strong tidal currents of up to 2 m/s. The bathymetry of the area is dynamic and complicated as 1) strong currents do exist in the area which lead to seemingly sand dune movements in the middle and southern parts of the strait, and 2) existence a vast area with mangrove coverage next to the narrowest part of the strait. This is why ordinary modeling schemes with normal mesh resolutions are not capable for high accuracy estimations of current fields in the KS. A comprehensive set of measurements were carried out with several components, to investigate the hydrodynamics and morpho-dynamics of the study area, including 1) vertical current profiling at six stations, 2) directional wave measurements at four stations, 3) water level measurements at six stations, 4) wind measurements at one station, and 5) sediment grab sampling at 100 locations. Additionally, a set of periodic hydrographic surveys was included in the program. The numerical simulation was carried out by using Delft3D – Flow Module. Model calibration was done by comparing water levels and depth averaged velocity of currents against available observational data. The results clearly indicate that observed data and simulations only fit together if a realistic perspective of the mangrove area is well captured by the model bathymetry data. Generating unstructured grid by using RGFGRID and QUICKIN, the flow model was driven with water level time-series at open boundaries. Adopting the available field data, the key role of mangrove area on the hydrodynamics of the study area can be studied. The results show that including the accurate geometry of the mangrove area and consideration of its sponge-like behavior are the key aspects through which a realistic current field can be simulated in the KS.

Keywords: Khuran Strait, Persian Gulf, tide, current, Delft3D

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Authors: Watchareeporn Chaimongkol

Abstract:

In this paper, we compare the statistical measures accuracy of composite forecasting model to estimate automobile customer demand in Thailand. A modified simple exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model is built to estimate customer demand of passenger cars, instead of using information of historical sales data. Our model takes into account special characteristic of the Thai automobile market such as sales promotion, advertising and publicity, petrol price, and interest rate for loan. We evaluate our forecasting model by comparing forecasts with actual data using six accuracy measurements, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), geometric mean absolute error (GMAE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE), median relative absolute error (MdRAE), and geometric mean relative absolute error (GMRAE).

Keywords: composite forecasting, simple exponential smoothing model, autoregressive integrate moving average model selection, accuracy measurements

Procedia PDF Downloads 355