Search results for: stochastic deterioration modelling

Authors: Sayed M. Ahmed, Sawsan S. Darwish, Mahmoud A. Adam, Nagib A. Elmarzugi, Mohammad A. Al-Dosari, Nadia A. Al-Mouallimi

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Historical stone surfaces and architectural heritage especially which located in open areas may undergo unwanted changes due to the exposure to many physical and chemical deterioration factors, air pollution, soluble salts, Rh/temperature, and biodeterioration are the main causes of decay of stone building materials. The development and application of self-cleaning treatments on historical and architectural stone surfaces could be a significant improvement in conservation, protection, and maintenance of cultural heritage. In this paper, nanometric titanium dioxide has become a promising photocatalytic material owing to its ability to catalyze the complete degradation of many organic contaminants and represent an appealing way to create self-cleaning surfaces, thus limiting maintenance costs, and to promote the degradation of polluting agents. The obtained nano-TiO2 coatings were applied on travertine (Marble and limestone often used in historical and monumental buildings). The efficacy of the treatments has been evaluated after coating and artificial thermal aging, through capillary water absorption, Ultraviolet-light exposure to evaluate photo-induced and the hydrophobic effects of the coated surface, while the surface morphology before and after treatment was examined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The changes of molecular structure occurring in treated samples were spectroscopy studied by FTIR-ATR, and Colorimetric measurements have been performed to evaluate the optical appearance. All the results get together with the apparent effect that coated TiO2 nanoparticles is an innovative method, which enhanced the durability of stone surfaces toward UV aging, improved their resistance to relative humidity and temperature, self-cleaning photo-induced effects are well evident, and no alteration of the original features.

Keywords: architectural calcareous stone monuments, coating, photocatalysis TiO2, self-cleaning, thermal aging

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Authors: F. H. Abanda, B. Kamsu-Foguem, J. H. M. Tah

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Construction cost estimation is one of the most important aspects of construction project design. For generations, the process of cost estimating has been manual, time-consuming and error-prone. This has partly led to most cost estimates to be unclear and riddled with inaccuracies that at times lead to over- or under-estimation of construction cost. The development of standard set of measurement rules that are understandable by all those involved in a construction project, have not totally solved the challenges. Emerging Building Information Modelling (BIM) technologies can exploit standard measurement methods to automate cost estimation process and improves accuracies. This requires standard measurement methods to be structured in ontologically and machine readable format; so that BIM software packages can easily read them. Most standard measurement methods are still text-based in textbooks and require manual editing into tables or Spreadsheet during cost estimation. The aim of this study is to explore the development of an ontology based on New Rules of Measurement (NRM) commonly used in the UK for cost estimation. The methodology adopted is Methontology, one of the most widely used ontology engineering methodologies. The challenges in this exploratory study are also reported and recommendations for future studies proposed.

Keywords: BIM, construction projects, cost estimation, NRM, ontology

Procedia PDF Downloads 551

Authors: Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo, Jonathan Crook, Fernando Moreira

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Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation.

Keywords: operational risk, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, copulas

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Authors: Vistorina Amputu, Katja Tielboerger, Nichola Knox

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Primary productivity in dry savannahs is constraint by moisture availability and under increasing anthropogenic pressure. Thus, considering climate change and the unprecedented pace and scale of rangeland deterioration, methods for assessing the status of such rangelands should be easy to apply, yield reliable and repeatable results that can be applied over large spatial scales. Global and local scale monitoring of rangelands through satellite data and labor-intensive field measurements respectively, are limited in accurately assessing the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of vegetation dynamics to provide crucial information that detects degradation in its early stages. Fortunately, newly emerging techniques such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), associated miniaturized sensors and improving digital photogrammetric software provide an opportunity to transcend these limitations. Yet, they have not been extensively calibrated in natural systems to encompass their complexities if they are to be integrated for long-term monitoring. Limited research using drone technology has been conducted in arid savannas, for example to assess the health status of this dynamic two-layer vegetation ecosystem. In our study, we fill this gap by testing the relationship between UAV-estimated cover of rangeland functional attributes and field data collected in discrete sample plots in a Namibian dryland savannah along a degradation gradient. The first results are based on a supervised classification performed on the ultra-high resolution multispectral imagery to distinguish between rangeland functional attributes (bare, non-woody, and woody), with a relatively good match to the field observations. Integrating UAV-based observations to improve rangeland monitoring could greatly assist in climate-adapted rangeland management.

Keywords: arid savannah, degradation gradient, field observations, narrow-band sensor, supervised classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Ailvy Faith Zamora, Serj Donn David, Michael Anderson

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There are a number of decades-old piers and wharves in Manila, Philippines, that are currently being used for container and bulk cargo handling port operations. These structures fulfill a very important role in the economy and hence have undergone rehabilitation and assessment of capacity to accommodate current and future operational requirements. The capacity assessment would include structural and pile geotechnical evaluation. Unfortunately, old marine structures in the Philippines may not have a complete set of as-built information. In certain instances, critical information, such as pile toe levels, is missing in the documentation. A combination of direct tests, geophysical tests, and numerical analysis/modelling has been performed to estimate existing pile toe levels of open-type piers and anchored quay wall wharves in Manila. These techniques were applied to both concrete and steel piles. This paper presents the tools utilized, testing setup, and techniques used for estimating toe levels of existing piles for certain structures, including the challenges encountered and applied solutions.

Keywords: geophysical testing, pile toe level, structural assessment, piers, wharves

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Hussam Alrabaiah

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Some new projects (new proposed harbor, recreational projects) are considered in the eastern coasts of Dammam city, Saudi Arabia. Dredging operations would significantly alter coast hydrological and sediment transport processes. It is important that the project areas must keep flushing the fresh sea water in and out with good water quality parameters, which are currently facing increased pressure from urbanization and navigation requirements in conjunction with industrial developments. A suspended solids or sediments are expected to affect the flora and fauna in that area. Governing advection-diffusion equations are considered to understand the consequences of such projects. A numerical modeling study is developed to study the effect of dredging and, in particular, the suspended sediments concentrations (mg/L) changed in the region. The results were obtained using finite element method using an in-house or commercial software. Results show some consistency with data observed in that region. Recommendations based on results could be formulated for decision makers to protect the environment in the long term.

Keywords: finite element, method, suspended solids transport, advection-diffusion

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Authors: Mohamed Mousa

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Sacristies in the supply of freshwater, strict regulations on discharging wastewater and the support to encourage sustainable development by water minimization techniques leads to raise the interest of water reusing, regeneration, and recycling. Water is considered a vital element in chemical industries. In this study, an optimization model will be developed to determine the optimal design of refinery’s water network system via source interceptor sink that involves several network alternatives, then a Mixed-Integer Non-Linear programming (MINLP) was used to obtain the optimal network superstructure based on flowrates, the concentration of contaminants, etc. The main objective of the model is to reduce the fixed cost of piping installation interconnections, reducing the operating cots of all streams within the refiner’s water network, and minimize the concentration of pollutants to comply with the environmental regulations. A real case study for one of the Egyptian refineries was studied by GAMS / BARON global optimization platform, and the water network had been retrofitted and optimized, leading to saving around 195 m³/ hr. of freshwater with a total reduction reaches to 26 %.

Keywords: freshwater minimization, modelling, GAMS, BARON, water network design, wastewater reudction

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Authors: Seyed Abolhasan Naeini, M. Mortezaee

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Various factors such as the method of installation, the pile type, the pile material and the pile shape, can affect the final bearing capacity of a pile executed in the soil; among them, the method of installation is of special importance. The physical modeling is among the best options in the laboratory study of the piles behavior. Therefore, the current paper first presents and reviews the frustum confining vesel (FCV) as a suitable tool for physical modeling of deep foundations. Then, by describing the loading tests of two open-ended and closed-end steel piles, each of which has been performed in two methods, “with displacement" and "without displacement", the effect of end conditions and installation method on the final bearing capacity of the pile is investigated. The soil used in the current paper is silty sand of Firoozkooh. The results of the experiments show that in general the without displacement installation method has a larger bearing capacity in both piles, and in a specific method of installation the closed ended pile shows a slightly higher bearing capacity.

Keywords: physical modeling, frustum confining vessel, pile, bearing capacity, installation method

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Authors: Mohieddine Benghersallah, Lakhdar Boulanouar, Salim Belhadi

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Currently, higher production rate with required quality and low cost is the basic principle in the competitive manufacturing industry. This is mainly achieved by using high cutting speed and feed rates. Elevated temperatures in the cutting zone under these conditions shorten tool life and adversely affect the dimensional accuracy and surface integrity of component. Thus it is necessary to find optimum cutting conditions (cutting speed, feed rate, machining environment, tool material and geometry) that can produce components in accordance with the project and having a relatively high production rate. Response surface methodology is a collection of mathematical and statistical techniques that are useful for modelling and analysis of problems in which a response of interest is influenced by several variables and the objective is to optimize this response. The work presented in this paper examines the effects of cutting parameters (cutting speed, feed rate and depth of cut) on to the surface roughness through the mathematical model developed by using the data gathered from a series of milling experiments performed.

Keywords: Statistical analysis (RSM), Bearing steel, Coating inserts, Tool life, Surface Roughness, End milling.

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Authors: Nurudeen O. Lasisi, Sirajo Abdulrahman, Abdulkareem A. Ibrahim

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Newcastle disease is an infection of domestic poultry and other bird species with the virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV). In this paper, we study the dynamics of the modeling of the Newcastle disease virus (NDV) using a novel quarantine-adjusted incidence. The comparison of Vaccination, linear incident rate and novel quarantine-adjusted incident rate in the models are discussed. The dynamics of the models yield disease-free and endemic equilibrium states.The effective reproduction numbers of the models are computed in order to measure the relative impact of an individual bird or combined intervention for effective disease control. We showed the local and global stability of endemic equilibrium states of the models and we found that the stability of endemic equilibrium states of models are globally asymptotically stable if the effective reproduction numbers of the models equations are greater than a unit.

Keywords: effective reproduction number, Endemic state, Mathematical model, Newcastle disease virus, novel quarantine-adjusted incidence, stability analysis

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Authors: Miroslav Dumbrovsky

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The paper deals with positive impacts of land consolidation on decreasing soil degradation with the main emphasis on soil and water conservation in the landscape. The importance of land degradation is very high because of its impact on crop productivity and many other adverse effects. Soil degradation through soil erosion is causing losses in crop productivity and quality of the environment, through decreasing quality of soil and water (especially water resources). Negative effects of conventional farming practices are increased water erosion, as well as crusting and compaction of the topsoil and subsoil. Soil erosion caused by water destructs the soil’s structure, reduces crop productivity due to deterioration in soil physical and chemical properties such as infiltration rate, water holding capacity, loss of nutrients needed for crop production, and loss of soil carbon. Recently, a new process of complex land consolidation in the Czech Republic has provided a unique opportunity for improving the quality of the environment and sustainability of the crop production by means a better soil and water conservation. The present process of the complex land consolidation is not only a reallocation of plots, but this system consists of a new layout of plots within a certain territory, aimed at establishing the integrated land-use economic units, based on the needs of individual landowners and land users. On the other hand, the interests of the general public and the environmental protection have to be solved, too. From the general point of view, a large part of the Czech landscape shall be reconstructed in the course of complex land consolidation projects. These projects will be based on new integrated soil-economic units, spatially arranged in a designed multifunctional system of soil and water conservation measures, such as path network and a territorial system of ecological stability, according to structural changes in agriculture. This new approach will be the basis of a rational economic utilization of the region which will comply with the present ecological and aesthetic demands at present.

Keywords: soil degradation, land consolidation, soil erosion, soil conservation

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Authors: Hammad Majeed, Hanna Knuutila, Magne Hillestad, Hallvard F. Svendsen

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Formation of aerosols can cause serious complications in industrial exhaust gas cleaning processes. Small mist droplets and fog formed can normally not be removed in conventional demisting equipment because their submicron size allows the particles or droplets to follow the gas flow. As a consequence of this, aerosol based emissions in the order of grams per Nm³ have been identified from PCCC plants. The model predicts the droplet size, the droplet internal variable profiles, and the mass transfer fluxes as function of position in the absorber. The Matlab model is based on a subclass method of weighted residuals for boundary value problems named, orthogonal collocation method. This paper presents results describing the basic simulation tool for the characterization of aerosols formed in CO₂ absorption columns and describes how various entering droplets grow or shrink through an absorber and how their composition changes with respect to time. Below are given some preliminary simulation results for an aerosol droplet composition and temperature profiles.

Keywords: absorption columns, aerosol formation, amine emissions, internal droplet profiles, monoethanolamine (MEA), post combustion CO2 capture, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 244

Authors: Wiwat Kittinaraporn, Napat Harnpornchai, Sutja Boonyachut

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This paper deals with the application of a novel neural network technique, so-called Support Vector Machine (SVM). The objective of this study is to explore the variable and parameter of forecasting factors in the construction industry to build up forecasting model for construction quantity in Thailand. The scope of the research is to study the non-residential construction quantity in Thailand. There are 44 sets of yearly data available, ranging from 1965 to 2009. The correlation between economic indicators and construction demand with the lag of one year was developed by Apichat Buakla. The selected variables are used to develop SVM models to forecast the non-residential construction quantity in Thailand. The parameters are selected by using ten-fold cross-validation method. The results are indicated in term of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE value for the non-residential construction quantity predicted by Epsilon-SVR in corporation with Radial Basis Function (RBF) of kernel function type is 5.90. Analysis of the experimental results show that the support vector machine modelling technique can be applied to forecast construction quantity time series which is useful for decision planning and management purpose.

Keywords: forecasting, non-residential, construction, support vector machines

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Authors: Tejeet Singh, Ishvneet Singh, Vinay Gupta

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The present study focussed on carrying out the creep analysis in an isotropic thick-walled composite cylindrical pressure vessel composed of aluminium matrix reinforced with silicon-carbide in particulate form. The creep behaviour of the composite material has been described by the threshold stress based creep law. The value of stress exponent appearing in the creep law was selected as 3, 5 and 8. The constitutive equations were developed using well known von-Mises yield criteria. Models were developed to find out the distributions of creep stresses and strain rate in thick-walled composite cylindrical pressure vessels under internal pressure. In order to obtain the stress distributions in the cylinder, the equilibrium equation of the continuum mechanics and the constitutive equations are solved together. It was observed that the radial stress, tangential stress and axial stress increases along with the radial distance. The cross-over was also obtained almost at the middle region of cylindrical vessel for tangential and axial stress for different values of stress exponent. The strain rates were also decreasing in nature along the entire radius.

Keywords: creep, composite, cylindrical vessel, internal pressure

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Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: Kateřina Jurdová

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Hanging to the trapezoidal sheet by decking hanger is a very widespread solution used in civil engineering to lead the distribution of energy, sanitary, air distribution system etc. under the roof or floor structure. The trapezoidal decking hanger is usually a part of the whole installation system for specific distribution medium. The leading companies offer installation systems for each specific distribution e.g. pipe rings, sprinkler systems, installation channels etc. Every specific part is connected to the base connector which is decking hanger. The own connection has three main components: decking hanger, threaded bar with nuts and web of trapezoidal sheet. The aim of this contribution is determinate the failure mechanism of each component in connection. Load bearing capacity of most components in connection could be calculated by formulas in European codes. This contribution is focused on problematic of bearing resistance of threaded bar in web of trapezoidal sheet. This issue is studied by experimental research and numerical modelling. This contribution presented the initial results of experiment which is compared with numerical model of specimen.

Keywords: decking hanger, concentrated load, connection, load bearing capacity, trapezoidal metal sheet

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Authors: Mohamad Saab, Sidi Souvi

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In a major nuclear accident, the released fission products (FPs) and the structural materials are likely to influence the transport of iodine in the reactor coolant system (RCS) of a pressurized water reactor (PWR). So far, the thermodynamic data on cesium and silver species used to estimate the magnitude of FP release show some discrepancies, data are scarce and not reliable. For this reason, it is crucial to review the thermodynamic values related to cesium and silver materials. To this end, we have used state-of-the-art quantum chemical methods to compute the formation enthalpies and entropies of AgHMoO₄, CsHMoO₄, and AgCsMoO₄ in the gas phase. Different quantum chemical methods have been investigated (DFT and CCSD(T)) in order to predict the geometrical parameters and the energetics including the correlation energy. The geometries were optimized with TPSSh-5%HF method, followed by a single point calculation of the total electronic energies using the CCSD(T) wave function method. We thus propose with a final uncertainty of about 2 kJmol⁻¹ standard enthalpies of formation of AgHMoO₄, CsHMoO₄, and AgCsMoO₄.

Keywords: nuclear accident, ASTEC code, thermochemical database, quantum chemical methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Arash Najmaei, Jo Rhodes, Peter Lok, Zahra Sadeghinejad

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In this article, we endeavor to explore how a new business model comes into existence in the Australian cloud-computing eco-system. Findings from multiple case study methodology reveal that to develop a business model new ventures adopt a three-phase approach. In the first phase, labelled as business model ideation (BMID) various ideas for a viable business model are generated from both internal and external networks of the entrepreneurial team and the most viable one is chosen. Strategic consensus and commitment are generated in the second phase. This phase is a business modelling strategic action phase. We labelled this phase as business model strategic commitment (BMSC) because through commitment and the subsequent actions of executives resources are pooled, coordinated and allocated to the business model. Three complementary sets of resources shape the business model: managerial (MnRs), marketing (MRs) and technological resources (TRs). The third phase is the market-test phase where the business model is reified through the delivery of the intended value to customers and conversion of revenue into profit. We labelled this phase business model actualization (BMAC). Theoretical and managerial implications of these findings will be discussed and several directions for future research will be illuminated.

Keywords: entrepreneur business model, high-tech venture, resources, conversion of revenue

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Authors: C. Matasane, C. Dwarika, R. Naidoo

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The mathematical analysis on radiation obtained and the development of the solar photovoltaic (PV) array groundwater pumping is needed in the rural areas of Thohoyandou, Limpopo Province for sizing and power performance subject to the climate conditions within the area. A simple methodology approach is developed for the directed coupled solar, controller and submersible ground water pump system. The system consists of a PV array, pump controller and submerged pump, battery backup and charger controller. For this reason, the theoretical solar radiation obtained for optimal predictions and system performance in order to achieve different design and operating parameters. Here the examination of the PV schematic module in a Direct Current (DC) application is used for obtainable maximum solar power energy for water pumping. In this paper, a simple efficient photovoltaic water pumping system is presented with its theoretical studies and mathematical modeling of photovoltaics (PV) system.

Keywords: renewable energy sources, solar groundwater pumping, theoretical and mathematical analysis of photovoltaic (PV) system, theoretical solar radiation

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Authors: Sisay Wondmagegn Molla, Mulugeta Admasu Delele, Tadelle Nigusu Mekonen

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It is common to observe quality deterioration and mechanical injury of horticulture products as a result of suboptimal design and handling of the packaging systems. Society uses the old and primitive way of handling horticulture products, which is produced through trial and error This method is known to have many limitations on quality, environmental pollution, labor and cost. Ethiopia stands first in bamboo resources in Africa, which is 67 % of the African and 7 % of the world's bamboo resources. The purpose of this project was to design and develop bamboo-based ventilated horticultural produce crates using validated computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The model was used to predict the airflow and temperature distribution inside the loaded crate. The study included: sizing, collection of the thermo-physical properties, and designing and developing a CFD model of the bamboo-based ventilated horticultural crate. The designed crate (40×30×25cm) had a capacity of about 18 kg, and cold air temperature (130C) was used for cooling the fruit. Airflow in the loaded crate is far from uniform. There is a relatively high-velocity flow at the top, near inlet and near outlet sections, and a relatively low airflow near the center of the loaded crate. The predicted velocity variation within the bulk of the produce was relatively large, it was in the range of 0.04-7m/s. The vented produce package contributed the highest cooling airflow resistance. Similar to the airflow, the cooling characteristics of the product were not uniform. There was a difference in the cooling rate of the produce in the airflow direction and from the top to the bottom section of the loaded crate. The products that were located near the inlet side and top of the bulk showed a faster cooling rate than the rest of the bulk. The result showed that the produced volume average temperature was 17.9°C after a cooling period of 3 hr. It was reduced by 12.05°C. The result showed the potential of the CFD modeling approach in developing the bamboo-based design of horticultural produce crates in terms of airflow and heat transfer characteristics.

Keywords: bamboo, modeling, cooling, horticultural, packaging

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Authors: Hernán A. Perez, Luis J. Armando, Néstor H. García

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Background and aims Cardiovascular disease rates are very high in patients with renal failure (CRF), but the underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors do not explain the increased risk, and observational studies have observed paradoxical or absent associations between classical risk factors and mortality in dialysis patients. A large randomized controlled trial, the 4D Study, the AURORA and the ALERT study found that statin therapy in CRF do not reduce cardiovascular events. These results may be the results of ‘accelerated atherosclerosis’ observed on these patients. The objective of this study was to investigate if carotid total plaque area (TPA), a measure of carotid plaque burden growth is increased at progressively lower creatinine clearance in patients with CRF. We studied a cohort of patients with CRF not on dialysis, reasoning that risk factor associations might be more easily discerned before end stage renal disease. Methods: The Blossom DMO Argentina ethics committee approved the study and informed consent from each participant was obtained. We performed a cohort study in 412 patients with Stage 1, 2 and 3 CRF. Clinical and laboratory data were obtained. TPA was determined using bilateral carotid ultrasonography. Modification of Diet in Renal Disease estimation formula was used to determine renal function. ANOVA was used when appropriate. Results: Stage 1 CRF group (n= 16, 43±2yo) had a blood pressure of 123±2/78±2 mmHg, BMI 30±1, LDL col 145±10 mg/dl, HbA1c 5.8±0.4% and had the lowest TPA 25.8±6.9 mm2. Stage 2 CRF (n=231, 50±1 yo) had a blood pressure of 132±1/81±1 mmHg, LDL col 125±2 mg/dl, HbA1c 6±0.1% and TPA 48±10mm2 ( p< 0.05 vs CRF stage 1) while Stage 3 CRF (n=165, 59±1 yo) had a blood pressure of 134±1/81±1, LDL col 125±3 mg/dl, HbA1c 6±0.1% and TPA 71±6mm2 (p < 0.05 vs CRF stage 1 and 2). Conclusion: Our data indicate that TPA increases along the renal function deterioration, and it is not related with the LDL cholesterol and triglycerides levels. We suggest that mechanisms other than the classics are responsible for the observed excess of cardiovascular disease in CKD patients and finally, determination of total plaque area should be used to measure effects of antiatherosclerotic therapy.

Keywords: hypertension, chronic renal failure, atherosclerosis, cholesterol

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Authors: Madhu Babu Cherukuri, Tamoghna Ghosh

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Factory supply chain management spends billions of dollars every year to procure and manage equipment spare parts. Due to technology -and processes changes some of these spares become obsolete/dead inventory. Factories have huge dead inventory worth millions of dollars accumulating over time. This is due to lack of a scientific methodology to identify them and send the inventory back to the suppliers on a timely basis. The standard approach followed across industries to deal with this is: if a part is not used for a set pre-defined period of time it is declared dead. This leads to accumulation of dead parts over time and these parts cannot be sold back to the suppliers as it is too late as per contract agreement. Our main idea is the time period for identifying a part as dead cannot be a fixed pre-defined duration across all parts. Rather, it should depend on various properties of the part like historical consumption pattern, type of part, how many machines it is being used in, whether it- is a preventive maintenance part etc. We have designed a predictive algorithm which predicts part obsolescence well in advance with reasonable accuracy and which can help save millions.

Keywords: obsolete inventory, machine learning, big data, supply chain analytics, dead inventory

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Authors: M. Brockes, S. Beck, A. Sigaroudi, C. Brockes

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Over the last years, telemedicine and telemonitoring have become a popular way of treatment, especially in other chronic diseases. Therefore this type of treatment methodology was also implemented in interstitial lung disease (ILD) patients. In January 2024, a new service for patients with interstitial lung disease (ILD) treated with Nintedanib was established, which contains daily telemonitoring (home spirometry, pulse oximetry, and daily level of activity), daily evaluation of parameters as well as a telemedical availability answered by doctors and telemedical specialists throughout 365 days per year. The main motivational points of this service are the early detection of first signs of exacerbations and/or other symptoms/complications as well as easier access to healthcare professionals. The evaluation of the patient’s quality of life and the subjective feeling of safetyness was measured through patient reported experience measurements (PREMs) and patient reported outcome measurements (PROMs). Patients were introduced to the telemedical and telemonitoring service six-months ago. Within this period, every sixty days, the questionnaires were conducted by the scientific employees. Due to the unlimited time frame of the long-term service the evaluation is not completed. The first analysis of patient reported experience measurements (PREMs) and patient reported outcome measurements (PROMs) have shown an increased positive effect on the patients' quality of life as well as an increased positive effect on the subjective feeling of safety at home, plus a reduction and avoidance of secondary damages (e.g., exacerbations, deterioration of typical interstitial lung disease ILD symptoms and pharmaceutical side effects). The first results have shown a tendency that the telemedical treatment combined with telemonitoring at home and the encouragement of patients to actively participate in their healthcare has a positive effect on the patient’s overall well-being and could be implemented as a complementation of the traditional standard of care.

Keywords: avoidance of secondary damages, interstitial lung disease, telemedicine and telemonitoring, subjective feeling of safety

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Authors: Rasikh Tariq, Fatima Z. Benarab

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Evaporative coolers has a minimum potential to reach the wet-bulb temperature of intake air which is not enough to handle a large cooling load; therefore, it is not a feasible option to overcome cooling requirement of a building. The invention of Maisotsenko (M) cycle has led evaporative cooling technology to reach the sub-wet-bulb temperature of the intake air; therefore, it brings an innovation in evaporative cooling techniques. In this work, we developed a mathematical model of the Maisotsenko based air cooler by applying energy and mass balance laws on different air channels. The governing ordinary differential equations are discretized and simulated on MATLAB. The temperature and the humidity plots are shown in the simulation results. A parametric study is conducted by varying working air inlet conditions (temperature and humidity), inlet air velocity, geometric parameters and water temperature. The influence of these aforementioned parameters on the cooling effectiveness of the HMX is reported.  Results have shown that the effectiveness of the M-Cycle is increased by increasing the ambient temperature and decreasing absolute humidity. An air velocity of 0.5 m/sec and a channel height of 6-8mm is recommended.

Keywords: HMX, maisotsenko cycle, mathematical modeling, numerical simulation, parametric study

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Authors: Bingxi Huang, Yiqing Li, Marek Morzynski, Bernd R. Noack

Abstract:

We propose a Kriging-based global optimization method for active flow control with multiple actuation parameters. This method is designed to converge quickly and avoid getting trapped into local minima. We follow the model-free explorative gradient method (EGM) to alternate between explorative and exploitive steps. This facilitates a convergence similar to a gradient-based method and the parallel exploration of potentially better minima. In contrast to EGM, both kinds of steps are performed with Kriging surrogate model from the available data. The explorative step maximizes the expected improvement, i.e., favors regions of large uncertainty. The exploitive step identifies the best location of the cost function from the Kriging surrogate model for a subsequent weight-biased linear-gradient descent search method. To verify the effectiveness and robustness of the improved Kriging-based optimization method, we have examined several comparative test problems of varying dimensions with limited evaluation budgets. The results show that the proposed algorithm significantly outperforms some model-free optimization algorithms like genetic algorithm and differential evolution algorithm with a quicker convergence for a given budget. We have also performed direct numerical simulations of the fluidic pinball (N. Deng et al. 2020 J. Fluid Mech.) on three circular cylinders in equilateral-triangular arrangement immersed in an incoming flow at Re=100. The optimal cylinder rotations lead to 44.0% net drag power saving with 85.8% drag reduction and 41.8% actuation power. The optimal results for active flow control based on this configuration have achieved boat-tailing mechanism by employing Coanda forcing and wake stabilization by delaying separation and minimizing the wake region.

Keywords: direct numerical simulations, flow control, kriging, stochastic optimization, wake stabilization

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Authors: Joaquin Navarro Perales, Ana Lidia Franzoni Velázquez, Francisco Cervantes Pérez

Abstract:

The Mexican educational system faces diverse challenges related with the quality and coverage of education. The development of Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) may help to solve some of them by helping teachers to customize their classes according to the performance of the students in online courses. In this work, we propose the adaptation of a functional ITS based on Bloom’s taxonomy called Sistema de Apoyo Generalizado para la Enseñanza Individualizada (SAGE), to measure student’s metacognition and their emotional response based on Marzano’s taxonomy. The students and the system will share the control over the advance in the course, so they can improve their metacognitive skills. The system will not allow students to get access to subjects not mastered yet. The interaction between the system and the student will be implemented through Natural Language Processing techniques, thus avoiding the use of sensors to evaluate student’s response. The teacher will evaluate student’s knowledge utilization, which is equivalent to the last cognitive level in Marzano’s taxonomy.

Keywords: intelligent tutoring systems, student modelling, metacognition, affective computing, natural language processing

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Authors: Wael M Albadri, Hassnen M Jafer, Ehab H Sfoog

Abstract:

Relationship between undrained shear strength (Su) and over consolidation ratio (OCR) of clay soil (marine clay) is very important in the field of geotechnical engineering to estimate the settlement behaviour of clay and to prepare a small scale physical modelling test. In this study, a relationship between shear strength and OCR parameters was determined using the laboratory vane shear apparatus and the fully automatic consolidated apparatus. The main objective was to establish non-linear correlation formula between shear strength and OCR and comparing it with previous studies. Therefore, in order to achieve this objective, three points were chosen to obtain 18 undisturbed samples which were collected with an increasing depth of 1.0 m to 3.5 m each 0.5 m. Clay samples were prepared under undrained condition for both tests. It was found that the OCR and shear strength are inversely proportional at similar depth and at same undrained conditions. However, a good correlation was obtained from the relationships where the R2 values were very close to 1.0 using polynomial equations. The comparison between the experimental result and previous equation from other researchers produced a non-linear correlation which has a similar pattern with this study.

Keywords: shear strength, over-consolidation ratio, vane shear test, clayey soil

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar, Lillie Dewan

Abstract:

The study of complex dynamic systems has advanced through various scientific approaches with the help of computer modeling. The common design trends in aerospace system design can be applied to quadcopter design. A quadcopter is a nonlinear, under-actuated system with complex aerodynamics parameters and creates challenges that demand new, robust, and effective control approaches. The flight control stability can be improved by planning and tracking the trajectory and reducing the effect of sensors and the operational environment. This paper presents a modern design Simmechanics visual modeling approach for a mechanical model of a quadcopter with three degrees of freedom. The Simmechanics model, considering inertia, mass, and geometric properties of a dynamic system, produces multiple translation and rotation maneuvers. The proportional, integral, and derivative (PID) controller is integrated with the Simmechanics model to follow a predefined quadcopter rotational trajectory for a fixed time interval. The results presented are satisfying. The simulation of the quadcopter control performed operations successfully.

Keywords: nonlinear system, quadcopter model, simscape modelling, proportional-integral-derivative controller

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Authors: B. SahaRoy, T. Medhi, S. C. Saha

Abstract:

To understand the friction stir welding process, it is very important to know the nature of the material flow in and around the tool. The process is a combination of both thermal as well as mechanical work i.e it is a coupled thermo-mechanical process. Numerical simulations are very much essential in order to obtain a complete knowledge of the process as well as the physics underlying it. In the present work a model based approach is adopted in order to study material flow. A thermo-mechanical based CFD model is developed using a Finite Element package, Comsol Multiphysics. The fluid flow analysis is done. The model simultaneously predicts shear strain fields, shear strain rates and shear stress over the entire workpiece for the given conditions. The flow fields generated by the streamline plot give an idea of the material flow. The variation of dynamic viscosity, velocity field and shear strain fields with various welding parameters is studied. Finally the result obtained from the above mentioned conditions is discussed elaborately and concluded.

Keywords: AA6061-T6, CFD modelling, friction stir welding, material flow

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Authors: Pablo Zoghbi-Manrique-de-Lara, Miguel A. Suárez-Acosta

Abstract:

The goal of the present paper is to model two classic lines of research in which employees starred, organizational justice and citizenship behaviour (OCB), but that have never been studied together when targeting customers. The suggestion is made that a hotel’s fair treatment (in terms of distributive, procedural, and interactional justice) toward customers will be appreciated by the employees, who will reciprocate in kind by favouring the hotel with increased customer-oriented behaviours (COBs). Data were collected from 204 employees at eight upscale hotels in the Canary Islands (Spain). Unlike in the case of perceptions of distributive justice, results of structural equation modelling demonstrate that employees substantively react to interactional and procedural justice toward guests by engaging in customer-oriented behaviours (COBs). The findings offer new reasons why employees decide to engage in COBs, and they highlight potentially beneficial effects of fair treatment toward guests bring to hospitality through promoting COBs.

Keywords: hotel guests’ (mis) treatment, customer-oriented behaviours, employee citizenship, organizational justice, third-party observers, third-party intervention

Procedia PDF Downloads 273