Search results for: fractional stochastic processes
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6216

Search results for: fractional stochastic processes

6096 Evaluating the Effects of a Positive Bitcoin Shock on the U.S Economy: A TVP-FAVAR Model with Stochastic Volatility

Authors: Olfa Kaabia, Ilyes Abid, Khaled Guesmi

Abstract:

This pioneer paper studies whether and how Bitcoin shocks are transmitted to the U.S economy. We employ a new methodology: TVP FAVAR model with stochastic volatility. We use a large dataset of 111 major U.S variables from 1959:m1 to 2016:m12. The results show that Bitcoin shocks significantly impact the U.S. economy. This significant impact is pronounced in a volatile and increasing U.S economy. The Bitcoin has a positive relationship on the U.S real activity, and a negative one on U.S prices and interest rates. Effects on the Monetary Policy exist via the inter-est rates and the Money, Credit and Finance transmission channels.

Keywords: bitcoin, US economy, FAVAR models, stochastic volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 244
6095 Stability Analysis of Tumor-Immune Fractional Order Model

Authors: Sadia Arshad, Yifa Tang, Dumitru Baleanu

Abstract:

A fractional order mathematical model is proposed that incorporate CD8+ cells, natural killer cells, cytokines and tumor cells. The tumor cells growth in the absence of an immune response is modeled by logistic law as it was the simplest form for which predictions also agreed with the experimental data. Natural Killer Cells are our first line of defense. NK cells directly kill tumor cells through several mechanisms, including the release of cytoplasmic granules containing perforin and granzyme, expression of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) family members. The effect of the NK cells on the tumor cell population is expressed with the product term. Rational form is used to describe interaction between CD8+ cells and tumor cells. A number of cytokines are produced by NKs, including tumor necrosis factor TNF, IFN, and interleukin (IL-10). Source term for cytokines is modeled by Michaelis-Menten form to indicate the saturated effects of the immune response. Stability of the equilibrium points is discussed for biologically significant values of bifurcation parameters. We studied the treatment of fractional order system by investigating analytical conditions of tumor eradication. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the analytical results.

Keywords: cancer model, fractional calculus, numerical simulations, stability analysis

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6094 Stability of Solutions of Semidiscrete Stochastic Systems

Authors: Ramazan Kadiev, Arkadi Ponossov

Abstract:

Semidiscrete systems contain both continuous and discrete components. This means that the dynamics is mostly continuous, but at certain instants, it is exposed to abrupt influences. Such systems naturally appear in applications, for example, in biological and ecological models as well as in the control theory. Therefore, the study of semidiscrete systems has recently attracted the attention of many specialists. Stochastic effects are an important part of any realistic approach to modeling. For example, stochasticity arises in the population dynamics, demographic and ecological due to a change in time of factors external to the system affecting the survival of the population. In control theory, random coefficients can simulate inaccuracies in measurements. It will be shown in the presentation how to incorporate such effects into semidiscrete systems. Stability analysis is an essential part of modeling real-world problems. In the presentation, it will be explained how sufficient conditions for the moment stability of solutions in terms of the coefficients for linear semidiscrete stochastic equations can be derived using non-Lyapunov technique.

Keywords: abrupt changes, exponential stability, regularization, stochastic noises

Procedia PDF Downloads 185
6093 Globally Attractive Mild Solutions for Non-Local in Time Subdiffusion Equations of Neutral Type

Authors: Jorge Gonzalez Camus, Carlos Lizama

Abstract:

In this work is proved the existence of at least one globally attractive mild solution to the Cauchy problem, for fractional evolution equation of neutral type, involving the fractional derivate in Caputo sense. An almost sectorial operator on a Banach space X and a kernel belonging to a large class appears in the equation, which covers many relevant cases from physics applications, in particular, the important case of time - fractional evolution equations of neutral type. The main tool used in this work was the Hausdorff measure of noncompactness and fixed point theorems, specifically Darbo-type. Initially, the equation is a Cauchy problem, involving a fractional derivate in Caputo sense. Then, is formulated the equivalent integral version, and defining a convenient functional, using the analytic integral resolvent operator, and verifying the hypothesis of the fixed point theorem of Darbo type, give us the existence of mild solution for the initial problem. Furthermore, each mild solution is globally attractive, a property that is desired in asymptotic behavior for that solution.

Keywords: attractive mild solutions, integral Volterra equations, neutral type equations, non-local in time equations

Procedia PDF Downloads 154
6092 Performance and Availability Analysis of 2N Redundancy Models

Authors: Yutae Lee

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the performance and availability of a redundancy model. The redundancy model is a form of resilience that ensures service availability in the event of component failure. This paper considers a 2N redundancy model. In the model there are at most one active service unit and at most one standby service unit. The active one is providing the service while the standby is prepared to take over the active role when the active fails. We design our analysis model using Stochastic Reward Nets, and then evaluate the performance and availability of 2N redundancy model using Stochastic Petri Net Package (SPNP).

Keywords: availability, performance, stochastic reward net, 2N redundancy

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6091 Optimization of Coefficients of Fractional Order Proportional-Integrator-Derivative Controller on Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors Using Particle Swarm Optimization

Authors: Ali Motalebi Saraji, Reza Zarei Lamuki

Abstract:

Speed control and behavior improvement of permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSM) that have reliable performance, low loss, and high power density, especially in industrial drives, are of great importance for researchers. Because of its importance in this paper, coefficients optimization of proportional-integrator-derivative fractional order controller is presented using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm in order to improve the behavior of PMSM in its speed control loop. This improvement is simulated in MATLAB software for the proposed optimized proportional-integrator-derivative fractional order controller with a Genetic algorithm and compared with a full order controller with a classic optimization method. Simulation results show the performance improvement of the proposed controller with respect to two other controllers in terms of rising time, overshoot, and settling time.

Keywords: speed control loop of permanent magnet synchronous motor, fractional and full order proportional-integrator-derivative controller, coefficients optimization, particle swarm optimization, improvement of behavior

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6090 A Multi-Criteria Model for Scheduling of Stochastic Single Machine Problem with Outsourcing and Solving It through Application of Chance Constrained

Authors: Homa Ghave, Parmis Shahmaleki

Abstract:

This paper presents a new multi-criteria stochastic mathematical model for a single machine scheduling with outsourcing allowed. There are multiple jobs processing in batch. For each batch, all of job or a quantity of it can be outsourced. The jobs have stochastic processing time and lead time and deterministic due dates arrive randomly. Because of the stochastic inherent of processing time and lead time, we use the chance constrained programming for modeling the problem. First, the problem is formulated in form of stochastic programming and then prepared in a form of deterministic mixed integer linear programming. The objectives are considered in the model to minimize the maximum tardiness and outsourcing cost simultaneously. Several procedures have been developed to deal with the multi-criteria problem. In this paper, we utilize the concept of satisfaction functions to increases the manager’s preference. The proposed approach is tested on instances where the random variables are normally distributed.

Keywords: single machine scheduling, multi-criteria mathematical model, outsourcing strategy, uncertain lead times and processing times, chance constrained programming, satisfaction function

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6089 Solving Stochastic Eigenvalue Problem of Wick Type

Authors: Hassan Manouzi, Taous-Meriem Laleg-Kirati

Abstract:

In this paper we study mathematically the eigenvalue problem for stochastic elliptic partial differential equation of Wick type. Using the Wick-product and the Wiener-Ito chaos expansion, the stochastic eigenvalue problem is reformulated as a system of an eigenvalue problem for a deterministic partial differential equation and elliptic partial differential equations by using the Fredholm alternative. To reduce the computational complexity of this system, we shall use a decomposition-coordination method. Once this approximation is performed, the statistics of the numerical solution can be easily evaluated.

Keywords: eigenvalue problem, Wick product, SPDEs, finite element, Wiener-Ito chaos expansion

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6088 Modelling Structural Breaks in Stock Price Time Series Using Stochastic Differential Equations

Authors: Daniil Karzanov

Abstract:

This paper studies the effect of quarterly earnings reports on the stock price. The profitability of the stock is modeled by geometric Brownian diffusion and the Constant Elasticity of Variance model. We fit several variations of stochastic differential equations to the pre-and after-report period using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Grid Search of parameters method. By examining the change in the model parameters after reports’ publication, the study reveals that the reports have enough evidence to be a structural breakpoint, meaning that all the forecast models exploited are not applicable for forecasting and should be refitted shortly.

Keywords: stock market, earnings reports, financial time series, structural breaks, stochastic differential equations

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6087 A New Approach for Solving Fractional Coupled Pdes

Authors: Prashant Pandey

Abstract:

In the present article, an effective Laguerre collocation method is used to obtain the approximate solution of a system of coupled fractional-order non-linear reaction-advection-diffusion equation with prescribed initial and boundary conditions. In the proposed scheme, Laguerre polynomials are used together with an operational matrix and collocation method to obtain approximate solutions of the coupled system, so that our proposed model is converted into a system of algebraic equations which can be solved employing the Newton method. The solution profiles of the coupled system are presented graphically for different particular cases. The salient feature of the present article is finding the stability analysis of the proposed method and also the demonstration of the lower variation of solute concentrations with respect to the column length in the fractional-order system compared to the integer-order system. To show the higher efficiency, reliability, and accuracy of the proposed scheme, a comparison between the numerical results of Burger’s coupled system and its existing analytical result is reported. There are high compatibility and consistency between the approximate solution and its exact solution to a higher order of accuracy. The exhibition of error analysis for each case through tables and graphs confirms the super-linearly convergence rate of the proposed method.

Keywords: fractional coupled PDE, stability and convergence analysis, diffusion equation, Laguerre polynomials, spectral method

Procedia PDF Downloads 144
6086 Fractional Integration in the West African Economic and Monetary Union

Authors: Hector Carcel Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana

Abstract:

This paper examines the time series behavior of three variables (GDP, Price level of Consumption and Population) in the eight countries that belong to the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), which are Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo. The reason for carrying out this study lies in the considerable heterogeneity that can be perceived in the data from these countries. We conduct a long memory and fractional integration modeling framework and we also identify potential breaks in the data. The aim of the study is to perceive up to which degree the eight West African countries that belong to the same monetary union follow the same economic patterns of stability. Testing for mean reversion, we only found strong evidence of it in the case of Senegal for the Price level of Consumption, and in the cases of Benin, Burkina Faso and Senegal for GDP.

Keywords: West Africa, Monetary Union, fractional integration, economic patterns

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6085 Forecasting the Volatility of Geophysical Time Series with Stochastic Volatility Models

Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar

Abstract:

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.

Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model

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6084 Targeting Mineral Resources of the Upper Benue trough, Northeastern Nigeria Using Linear Spectral Unmixing

Authors: Bello Yusuf Idi

Abstract:

The Gongola arm of the Upper Banue Trough, Northeastern Nigeria is predominantly covered by the outcrops of Limestone-bearing rocks in form of Sandstone with intercalation of carbonate clay, shale, basaltic, felsphatic and migmatide rocks at subpixel dimension. In this work, subpixel classification algorithm was used to classify the data acquired from landsat 7 Enhance Thematic Mapper (ETM+) satellite system with the aim of producing fractional distribution image for three most economically important solid minerals of the area: Limestone, Basalt and Migmatide. Linear Spectral Unmixing (LSU) algorithm was used to produce fractional distribution image of abundance of the three mineral resources within a 100Km2 portion of the area. The results show that the minerals occur at different proportion all over the area. The fractional map could therefore serve as a guide to the ongoing reconnaissance for the economic potentiality of the formation.

Keywords: linear spectral un-mixing, upper benue trough, gongola arm, geological engineering

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6083 Interactive Solutions for the Multi-Objective Capacitated Transportation Problem with Mixed Constraints under Fuzziness

Authors: Aquil Ahmed, Srikant Gupta, Irfan Ali

Abstract:

In this paper, we study a multi-objective capacitated transportation problem (MOCTP) with mixed constraints. This paper is comprised of the modelling and optimisation of an MOCTP in a fuzzy environment in which some goals are fractional and some are linear. In real life application of the fuzzy goal programming (FGP) problem with multiple objectives, it is difficult for the decision maker(s) to determine the goal value of each objective precisely as the goal values are imprecise or uncertain. Also, we developed the concept of linearization of fractional goal for solving the MOCTP. In this paper, imprecision of the parameter is handled by the concept of fuzzy set theory by considering these parameters as a trapezoidal fuzzy number. α-cut approach is used to get the crisp value of the parameters. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the method for solving MOCTP.

Keywords: capacitated transportation problem, multi objective linear programming, multi-objective fractional programming, fuzzy goal programming, fuzzy sets, trapezoidal fuzzy number

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6082 Numerical Simulations on Feasibility of Stochastic Model Predictive Control for Linear Discrete-Time Systems with Random Dither Quantization

Authors: Taiki Baba, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

The random dither quantization method enables us to achieve much better performance than the simple uniform quantization method for the design of quantized control systems. Motivated by this fact, the stochastic model predictive control method in which a performance index is minimized subject to probabilistic constraints imposed on the state variables of systems has been proposed for linear feedback control systems with random dither quantization. In other words, a method for solving optimal control problems subject to probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time control systems with random dither quantization has been already established. To our best knowledge, however, the feasibility of such a kind of optimal control problems has not yet been studied. Our objective in this paper is to investigate the feasibility of stochastic model predictive control problems for linear discrete-time control systems with random dither quantization. To this end, we provide the results of numerical simulations that verify the feasibility of stochastic model predictive control problems for linear discrete-time control systems with random dither quantization.

Keywords: model predictive control, stochastic systems, probabilistic constraints, random dither quantization

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6081 Digital Watermarking Using Fractional Transform and (k,n) Halftone Visual Cryptography (HVC)

Authors: R. Rama Kishore, Sunesh Malik

Abstract:

Development in the usage of internet for different purposes in recent times creates great threat for the copy right protection of the digital images. Digital watermarking is the best way to rescue from the said problem. This paper presents detailed review of the different watermarking techniques, latest trends in the field and categorized like spatial and transform domain, blind and non-blind methods, visible and non visible techniques etc. It also discusses the different optimization techniques used in the field of watermarking in order to improve the robustness and imperceptibility of the method. Different measures are discussed to evaluate the performance of the watermarking algorithm. At the end, this paper proposes a watermarking algorithm using (k.n) shares of halftone visual cryptography (HVC) instead of (2, 2) share cryptography. (k,n) shares visual cryptography improves the security of the watermark. As halftone is a method of reprographic, it helps in improving the visual quality of watermark image. The proposed method uses fractional transformation to improve the robustness of the copyright protection of the method.

Keywords: digital watermarking, fractional transform, halftone, visual cryptography

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6080 Using Gaussian Process in Wind Power Forecasting

Authors: Hacene Benkhoula, Mohamed Badreddine Benabdella, Hamid Bouzeboudja, Abderrahmane Asraoui

Abstract:

The wind is a random variable difficult to master, for this, we developed a mathematical and statistical methods enable to modeling and forecast wind power. Gaussian Processes (GP) is one of the most widely used families of stochastic processes for modeling dependent data observed over time, or space or time and space. GP is an underlying process formed by unrecognized operator’s uses to solve a problem. The purpose of this paper is to present how to forecast wind power by using the GP. The Gaussian process method for forecasting are presented. To validate the presented approach, a simulation under the MATLAB environment has been given.

Keywords: wind power, Gaussien process, modelling, forecasting

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6079 Solid State Fermentation Process Development for Trichoderma asperellum Using Inert Support in a Fixed Bed Fermenter

Authors: Mauricio Cruz, Andrés Díaz García, Martha Isabel Gómez, Juan Carlos Serrato Bermúdez

Abstract:

The disadvantages of using natural substrates in SSF processes have been well recognized and mainly are associated to gradual decomposition of the substrate, formation of agglomerates and decrease of porosity bed generating limitations in the mass and heat transfer. Additionally, in several cases, materials with a high agricultural value such as sour milk, beets, rice, beans and corn have been used. Thus, the use of economic inert supports (natural or synthetic) in combination with a nutrient suspension for the production of biocontrol microorganisms is a good alternative in SSF processes, but requires further studies in the fields of modeling and optimization. Therefore, the aim of this work is to compare the performance of two inert supports, a synthetic (polyurethane foam) and a natural one (rice husk), identifying the factors that have the major effects on the productivity of T. asperellum Th204 and the maximum specific growth rate in a PROPHYTA L05® fixed bed bioreactor. For this, the six factors C:N ratio, temperature, inoculation rate, bed height, air moisture content and airflow were evaluated using a fractional design. The factors C:N and air flow were identified as significant on the productivity (expressed as conidia/dry substrate•h). The polyurethane foam showed higher maximum specific growth rate (0.1631 h-1) and productivities of 3.89 x107 conidia/dry substrate•h compared to rice husk (2.83x106) and natural substrate based on rice (8.87x106) used as control. Finally, a quadratic model was generated and validated, obtaining productivities higher than 3.0x107 conidia/dry substrate•h with air flow at 0.9 m3/h and C:N ratio at 18.1.

Keywords: bioprocess, scale up, fractional design, C:N ratio, air flow

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6078 Stochastic Simulation of Random Numbers Using Linear Congruential Method

Authors: Melvin Ballera, Aldrich Olivar, Mary Soriano

Abstract:

Digital computers nowadays must be able to have a utility that is capable of generating random numbers. Usually, computer-generated random numbers are not random given predefined values such as starting point and end points, making the sequence almost predictable. There are many applications of random numbers such business simulation, manufacturing, services domain, entertainment sector and other equally areas making worthwhile to design a unique method and to allow unpredictable random numbers. Applying stochastic simulation using linear congruential algorithm, it shows that as it increases the numbers of the seed and range the number randomly produced or selected by the computer becomes unique. If this implemented in an environment where random numbers are very much needed, the reliability of the random number is guaranteed.

Keywords: stochastic simulation, random numbers, linear congruential algorithm, pseudorandomness

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6077 Statistical Modeling of Mobile Fading Channels Based on Triply Stochastic Filtered Marked Poisson Point Processes

Authors: Jihad S. Daba, J. P. Dubois

Abstract:

Understanding the statistics of non-isotropic scattering multipath channels that fade randomly with respect to time, frequency, and space in a mobile environment is very crucial for the accurate detection of received signals in wireless and cellular communication systems. In this paper, we derive stochastic models for the probability density function (PDF) of the shift in the carrier frequency caused by the Doppler Effect on the received illuminating signal in the presence of a dominant line of sight. Our derivation is based on a generalized Clarke’s and a two-wave partially developed scattering models, where the statistical distribution of the frequency shift is shown to be consistent with the power spectral density of the Doppler shifted signal.

Keywords: Doppler shift, filtered Poisson process, generalized Clark’s model, non-isotropic scattering, partially developed scattering, Rician distribution

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6076 Increasing Performance of Autopilot Guided Small Unmanned Helicopter

Authors: Tugrul Oktay, Mehmet Konar, Mustafa Soylak, Firat Sal, Murat Onay, Orhan Kizilkaya

Abstract:

In this paper, autonomous performance of a small manufactured unmanned helicopter is tried to be increased. For this purpose, a small unmanned helicopter is manufactured in Erciyes University, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics. It is called as ZANKA-Heli-I. For performance maximization, autopilot parameters are determined via minimizing a cost function consisting of flight performance parameters such as settling time, rise time, overshoot during trajectory tracking. For this purpose, a stochastic optimization method named as simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation is benefited. Using this approach, considerable autonomous performance increase (around %23) is obtained.

Keywords: small helicopters, hierarchical control, stochastic optimization, autonomous performance maximization, autopilots

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6075 A Stochastic Approach to Extreme Wind Speeds Conditions on a Small Axial Wind Turbine

Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

Abstract:

In this paper, to model a real life wind turbine, a probabilistic approach is proposed to model the dynamics of the blade elements of a small axial wind turbine under extreme stochastic wind speeds conditions. It was found that the power and the torque probability density functions even though decreases at these extreme wind speeds but are not infinite. Moreover, we also found that it is possible to stabilize the power coefficient (stabilizing the output power) above rated wind speeds by turning some control parameters. This method helps to explain the effect of turbulence on the quality and quantity of the harness power and aerodynamic torque.

Keywords: probability, probability density function, stochastic, turbulence

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6074 A Two Stage Stochastic Mathematical Model for the Tramp Ship Routing with Time Windows Problem

Authors: Amin Jamili

Abstract:

Nowadays, the majority of international trade in goods is carried by sea, and especially by ships deployed in the industrial and tramp segments. This paper addresses routing the tramp ships and determining the schedules including the arrival times to the ports, berthing times at the ports, and the departure times in an operational planning level. In the operational planning level, the weather can be almost exactly forecasted, however in some routes some uncertainties may remain. In this paper, the voyaging times between some of the ports are considered to be uncertain. To that end, a two-stage stochastic mathematical model is proposed. Moreover, a case study is tested with the presented model. The computational results show that this mathematical model is promising and can represent acceptable solutions.

Keywords: routing, scheduling, tram ships, two stage stochastic model, uncertainty

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6073 A Stochastic Diffusion Process Based on the Two-Parameters Weibull Density Function

Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

Abstract:

Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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6072 A Hierarchical Bayesian Calibration of Data-Driven Models for Composite Laminate Consolidation

Authors: Nikolaos Papadimas, Joanna Bennett, Amir Sakhaei, Timothy Dodwell

Abstract:

Composite modeling of consolidation processes is playing an important role in the process and part design by indicating the formation of possible unwanted prior to expensive experimental iterative trial and development programs. Composite materials in their uncured state display complex constitutive behavior, which has received much academic interest, and this with different models proposed. Errors from modeling and statistical which arise from this fitting will propagate through any simulation in which the material model is used. A general hyperelastic polynomial representation was proposed, which can be readily implemented in various nonlinear finite element packages. In our case, FEniCS was chosen. The coefficients are assumed uncertain, and therefore the distribution of parameters learned using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In engineering, the approach often followed is to select a single set of model parameters, which on average, best fits a set of experiments. There are good statistical reasons why this is not a rigorous approach to take. To overcome these challenges, A hierarchical Bayesian framework was proposed in which population distribution of model parameters is inferred from an ensemble of experiments tests. The resulting sampled distribution of hyperparameters is approximated using Maximum Entropy methods so that the distribution of samples can be readily sampled when embedded within a stochastic finite element simulation. The methodology is validated and demonstrated on a set of consolidation experiments of AS4/8852 with various stacking sequences. The resulting distributions are then applied to stochastic finite element simulations of the consolidation of curved parts, leading to a distribution of possible model outputs. With this, the paper, as far as the authors are aware, represents the first stochastic finite element implementation in composite process modelling.

Keywords: data-driven , material consolidation, stochastic finite elements, surrogate models

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6071 Effects of the Fractional Order on Nanoparticles in Blood Flow through the Stenosed Artery

Authors: Mohammed Abdulhameed, Sagir M. Abdullahi

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the applications of nanoparticle, the blood flow along with nanoparticles through stenosed artery is studied. The blood is acted by periodic body acceleration, an oscillating pressure gradient and an external magnetic field. The mathematical formulation is based on Caputo-Fabrizio fractional derivative without singular kernel. The model of ordinary blood, corresponding to time-derivatives of integer order, is obtained as a limiting case. Analytical solutions of the blood velocity and temperature distribution are obtained by means of the Hankel and Laplace transforms. Effects of the order of Caputo-Fabrizio time-fractional derivatives and three different nanoparticles i.e. Fe3O4, TiO4 and Cu are studied. The results highlights that, models with fractional derivatives bring significant differences compared to the ordinary model. It is observed that the addition of Fe3O4 nanoparticle reduced the resistance impedance of the blood flow and temperature distribution through bell shape stenosed arteries as compared to TiO4 and Cu nanoparticles. On entering in the stenosed area, blood temperature increases slightly, but, increases considerably and reaches its maximum value in the stenosis throat. The shears stress has variation from a constant in the area without stenosis and higher in the layers located far to the longitudinal axis of the artery. This fact can be an important for some clinical applications in therapeutic procedures.

Keywords: nanoparticles, blood flow, stenosed artery, mathematical models

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6070 Regularization of Gene Regulatory Networks Perturbed by White Noise

Authors: Ramazan I. Kadiev, Arcady Ponosov

Abstract:

Mathematical models of gene regulatory networks can in many cases be described by ordinary differential equations with switching nonlinearities, where the initial value problem is ill-posed. Several regularization methods are known in the case of deterministic networks, but the presence of stochastic noise leads to several technical difficulties. In the presentation, it is proposed to apply the methods of the stochastic singular perturbation theory going back to Yu. Kabanov and Yu. Pergamentshchikov. This approach is used to regularize the above ill-posed problem, which, e.g., makes it possible to design stable numerical schemes. Several examples are provided in the presentation, which support the efficiency of the suggested analysis. The method can also be of interest in other fields of biomathematics, where differential equations contain switchings, e.g., in neural field models.

Keywords: ill-posed problems, singular perturbation analysis, stochastic differential equations, switching nonlinearities

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6069 Fractional-Order Modeling of GaN High Electron Mobility Transistors for Switching Applications

Authors: Anwar H. Jarndal, Ahmed S. Elwakil

Abstract:

In this paper, a fraction-order model for pad parasitic effect of GaN HEMT on Si substrate is developed and validated. Open de-embedding structure is used to characterize and de-embed substrate loading parasitic effects. Unbiased device measurements are implemented to extract parasitic inductances and resistances. The model shows very good simulation for S-parameter measurements under different bias conditions. It has been found that this approach can improve the simulation of intrinsic part of the transistor, which is very important for small- and large-signal modeling process.

Keywords: fractional-order modeling, GaNHEMT, si-substrate, open de-embedding structure

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6068 Scheduling Jobs with Stochastic Processing Times or Due Dates on a Server to Minimize the Number of Tardy Jobs

Authors: H. M. Soroush

Abstract:

The problem of scheduling products and services for on-time deliveries is of paramount importance in today’s competitive environments. It arises in many manufacturing and service organizations where it is desirable to complete jobs (products or services) with different weights (penalties) on or before their due dates. In such environments, schedules should frequently decide whether to schedule a job based on its processing time, due-date, and the penalty for tardy delivery to improve the system performance. For example, it is common to measure the weighted number of late jobs or the percentage of on-time shipments to evaluate the performance of a semiconductor production facility or an automobile assembly line. In this paper, we address the problem of scheduling a set of jobs on a server where processing times or due-dates of jobs are random variables and fixed weights (penalties) are imposed on the jobs’ late deliveries. The goal is to find the schedule that minimizes the expected weighted number of tardy jobs. The problem is NP-hard to solve; however, we explore three scenarios of the problem wherein: (i) both processing times and due-dates are stochastic; (ii) processing times are stochastic and due-dates are deterministic; and (iii) processing times are deterministic and due-dates are stochastic. We prove that special cases of these scenarios are solvable optimally in polynomial time, and introduce efficient heuristic methods for the general cases. Our computational results show that the heuristics perform well in yielding either optimal or near optimal sequences. The results also demonstrate that the stochasticity of processing times or due-dates can affect scheduling decisions. Moreover, the proposed problem is general in the sense that its special cases reduce to some new and some classical stochastic single machine models.

Keywords: number of late jobs, scheduling, single server, stochastic

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6067 Low Cost Inertial Sensors Modeling Using Allan Variance

Authors: A. A. Hussen, I. N. Jleta

Abstract:

Micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) accelerometers and gyroscopes are suitable for the inertial navigation system (INS) of many applications due to the low price, small dimensions and light weight. The main disadvantage in a comparison with classic sensors is a worse long term stability. The estimation accuracy is mostly affected by the time-dependent growth of inertial sensor errors, especially the stochastic errors. In order to eliminate negative effect of these random errors, they must be accurately modeled. Where the key is the successful implementation that depends on how well the noise statistics of the inertial sensors is selected. In this paper, the Allan variance technique will be used in modeling the stochastic errors of the inertial sensors. By performing a simple operation on the entire length of data, a characteristic curve is obtained whose inspection provides a systematic characterization of various random errors contained in the inertial-sensor output data.

Keywords: Allan variance, accelerometer, gyroscope, stochastic errors

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