Search results for: flood modeling

Authors: Gareth Baxter

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We use a mathematical model of language change to examine two recently observed patterns of language change: one in which most speakers change gradually, following the mean of the community change, and one in which most individuals use predominantly one variant or another, and change rapidly if they change at all. The model is based on Croft’s Utterance Selection account of language change, which views language change as an evolutionary process, in which different variants (different ‘ways of saying the same thing’) compete for usage in a population of speakers. Language change occurs when a new variant replaces an older one as the convention within a given population. The present model extends a previous simpler model to include effects related to speaker aging and interspeaker variation in behaviour. The two patterns of individual change (one more centralized and the other more polarized) were recently observed in historical language changes, and it was further observed that slower changes were more associated with the centralized pattern, while quicker changes were more polarized. Our model suggests that the two patterns of change can be explained by different balances between the preference of speakers to use one variant over another and the degree of accommodation to (propensity to adapt towards) other speakers. The correlation with the rate of change appears naturally in our model, and results from the fact that both differential weighting of variants and the degree of accommodation affect the time for change to occur, while also determining the patterns of change. This work represents part of an ongoing effort to examine phenomena in language change through the use of mathematical models. This offers another way to evaluate qualitative explanations that cannot be practically tested (or cannot be tested at all) in a real-world, large-scale speech community.

Keywords: agent based modeling, cultural evolution, language change, social behavior modeling, social influence

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Authors: Selamawit Dires, Solomon Tesfamariam, Thomas Tannert

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Modern earthquake engineering and design encompass performance-based design philosophy. The main objective in performance-based design is to achieve a system performing precisely to meet the design objectives so to reduce unintended seismic risks and associated losses. Energy-based earthquake-resistant design is one of the design methodologies that can be implemented in performance-based earthquake engineering. In energy-based design, the seismic demand is usually described as the ratio of the hysteretic to input energy. Once the hysteretic energy is known as a percentage of the input energy, it is distributed among energy-dissipating components of a structure. The hysteretic to input energy ratio is highly dependent on the inherent damping of a structural system. In numerical analysis, damping can be modeled as stiffness-proportional, mass-proportional, or a linear combination of stiffness and mass. In this study, the effect of mathematical modeling of damping on the estimation of seismic energy demands is investigated by considering elastic-perfectly-plastic single-degree-of-freedom systems representing short to long period structures. Furthermore, the seismicity of Vancouver, Canada, is used in the nonlinear time history analysis. According to the preliminary results, the input energy demand is not sensitive to the type of damping models deployed. Hence, consistent results are achieved regardless of the damping models utilized in the numerical analyses. On the other hand, the hysteretic to input energy ratios vary significantly for the different damping models.

Keywords: damping, energy-based seismic design, hysteretic energy, input energy

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Authors: Bright E. Owusu, Nittaya McNeil

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Rainfall is one of the most essential quantities in meteorology and hydrology. It has important impacts on people’s daily life and excess or inadequate of it could bring tremendous losses in economy and cause fatalities. Population increase around the globe tends to have a corresponding increase in settlement and industrialization. Some countries are affected by flood and drought occasionally due to climate change, which disrupt most of the daily activities. Knowledge of trends in spatial and temporal rainfall variability and their physical explanations would be beneficial in climate change assessment and to determine erosivity. This study describes the spatial-temporal variability of daily rainfall in Australia and their corresponding long-term trend during 1950-2013. The spatial patterns were investigated by using exploratory factor analysis and the long term trend in rainfall time series were determined by linear regression, Mann-Kendall rank statistics and the Sen’s slope test. The exploratory factor analysis explained most of the variations in the data and grouped Australia into eight distinct rainfall regions with different rainfall patterns. Significant increasing trends in annual rainfall were observed in the northern regions of Australia. However, the northeastern part was the wettest of all the eight rainfall regions.

Keywords: climate change, explanatory factor analysis, Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope test, rainfall.

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Authors: Zeinab Yazdanfar, Dilan Robert, Daniel Lester, S. Setunge

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Scour has been identified as the most common threat to bridge stability worldwide. Traditionally, scour around bridge piers is calculated using the empirical approaches that have considerable limitations and are difficult to generalize. The multi-physic nature of scouring which involves turbulent flow, soil mechanics and solid-fluid interactions cannot be captured by simple empirical equations developed based on limited laboratory data. These limitations can be overcome by direct numerical modeling of coupled hydro-mechanical scour process that provides a robust prediction of bridge scour and valuable insights into the scour process. Several numerical models have been proposed in the literature for bridge scour estimation including Eulerian flow models and coupled Euler-Lagrange models incorporating an empirical sediment transport description. However, the contact forces between particles and the flow-particle interaction haven’t been taken into consideration. Incorporating collisional and frictional forces between soil particles as well as the effect of flow-driven forces on particles will facilitate accurate modeling of the complex nature of scour. In this study, a coupled Computational Fluid Dynamics and Discrete Element Model (CFD-DEM) has been developed to simulate the scour process that directly models the hydro-mechanical interactions between the sediment particles and the flowing water. This approach obviates the need for an empirical description as the fundamental fluid-particle, and particle-particle interactions are fully resolved. The sediment bed is simulated as a dense pack of particles and the frictional and collisional forces between particles are calculated, whilst the turbulent fluid flow is modeled using a Reynolds Averaged Navier Stocks (RANS) approach. The CFD-DEM model is validated against experimental data in order to assess the reliability of the CFD-DEM model. The modeling results reveal the criticality of particle impact on the assessment of scour depth which, to the authors’ best knowledge, hasn’t been considered in previous studies. The results of this study open new perspectives to the scour depth and time assessment which is the key to manage the failure risk of bridge infrastructures.

Keywords: bridge scour, discrete element method, CFD-DEM model, multi-phase model

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Authors: Yanuar Tri Wahyu Saputra, Ramadhani Pamapta Putra

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Karimunjawa is one among Indonesian islands which is lacking of electricity supply. Despite condition above, Karimunjawa is an important tourism object in Indonesia's Central Java Province. Solar Power Plant is a potential technology to be applied in Karimunjawa, in order to fulfill the island's electrical supply need and to increase daily life and tourism quality among tourists and local population. This optimation modeling of Karimunjawa uses HOMER software program. The data we uses include wind speed data in Karimunjawa from BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics), annual weather data in Karimunjawa from NASA, electricity requirements assumption data based on number of houses and business infrastructures in Karimunjawa. This modeling aims to choose which three system categories offer the highest financial profit with the lowest total Net Present Cost (NPC). The first category uses only PV with 8000 kW of electrical power and NPC value of $6.830.701. The second category uses hybrid system which involves both 1000 kW PV and 100 kW generator which results in total NPC of $6.865.590. The last category uses only generator with 750 kW of electrical power that results in total NPC of $ 16.368.197, the highest total NPC among the three categories. Based on the analysis above, we can conclude that the most optimal way to fulfill the electricity needs in Karimunjawa is to use 8000 kW PV with lower maintenance cost.

Keywords: Karimunjawa, renewable energy, solar power plant, HOMER

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Authors: Chenyi Ma

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Background: The second costliest hurricane in U.S. history, Sandy landed in southern New Jersey on October 29, 2012, and struck the entire state with high winds and torrential rains. The disaster killed more than 100 people, left more than 8.5 million households without power, and damaged or destroyed more than 200,000 homes across the state. Immediately after the disaster, public policy support was provided in nine coastal counties that constituted 98% of the major and severely damaged housing units in NJ overall. The programs include Individuals and Households Assistance Program, Small Business Loan Program, National Flood Insurance Program, and the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) Public Assistance Grant Program. In the most severely affected counties, additional funding was provided through Community Development Block Grant: Reconstruction, Rehabilitation, Elevation, and Mitigation Program, and Homeowner Resettlement Program. How these policies individually and as a whole impacted housing recovery across communities with different socioeconomic and demographic profiles has not yet been studied, particularly in relation to damage levels. The concept of community social vulnerability has been widely used to explain many aspects of natural disasters. Nevertheless, how communities are vulnerable has been less fully examined. Community resilience has been conceptualized as a protective factor against negative impacts from disasters, however, how community resilience buffers the effects of vulnerability is not yet known. Because housing recovery is a dynamic social and economic process that varies according to context, this study examined the path from community vulnerability and resilience to housing recovery looking at both community characteristics and policy interventions. Sample/Methods: This retrospective longitudinal case study compared a literature-identified set of pre-disaster community characteristics, the effects of multiple public policy programs, and a set of time-variant community resilience indicators to changes in housing stock (operationally defined by percent of building permits to total occupied housing units/households) between 2010 and 2014, two years before and after Hurricane Sandy. The sample consisted of 51 municipalities in the nine counties in which between 4% and 58% of housing units suffered either major or severe damage. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to determine the path from vulnerability to the housing recovery, via multiple public programs, separately and as a whole, and via the community resilience indicators. The spatial analytical tool ArcGIS 10.2 was used to show the spatial relations between housing recovery patterns and community vulnerability and resilience. Findings: Holding damage levels constant, communities with higher proportions of Hispanic households had significantly lower levels of housing recovery while communities with households with an adult >age 65 had significantly higher levels of the housing recovery. The contrast was partly due to the different levels of total public support the two types of the community received. Further, while the public policy programs individually mediated the negative associations between African American and female-headed households and housing recovery, communities with larger proportions of African American, female-headed and Hispanic households were “vulnerable” to lower levels of housing recovery because they lacked sufficient public program support. Even so, higher employment rates and incomes buffered vulnerability to lower housing recovery. Because housing is the "wobbly pillar" of the welfare state, the housing needs of these particular groups should be more fully addressed by disaster policy.

Keywords: community social vulnerability, community resilience, hurricane, public policy

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Authors: Thamer Kubat, Riadh Al-Mahaidi, Ahmad Shayan

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The alkali-aggregate reaction (AAR) in concrete has a negative influence on the mechanical properties and durability of concrete. Confinement by carbon fibre-reinforced polymer (CFRP) is an effective method of treatment for some AAR-affected elements. Eighteen reinforced columns affected by different levels of expansion due to AAR were confined using CFRP to evaluate the effect of expansion level on confinement efficiency. Strength and strain capacities (axial and circumferential) were measured using photogrammetry under uniaxial compressive loading to evaluate the efficiency of CFRP wrapping for the rehabilitation of affected columns. In relation to uniaxial compression capacity, the results indicated that the confinement of AAR-affected columns by one layer of CFRP is sufficient to reach and exceed the load capacity of unaffected sound columns. Parallel to the experimental study, finite element (FE) modeling using ATENA software was employed to predict the behavior of CFRP-confined damaged concrete and determine the possibility of using the model in a parametric study by simulating the number of CFRP layers. A comparison of the experimental results with the results of the theoretical models showed that FE modeling could be used for the prediction of the behavior of confined AAR-damaged concrete.

Keywords: carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP), finite element (FE), ATENA, confinement efficiency

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Authors: Hassan M. H. Mustafa

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This piece of research addresses an interesting comparative analytical study. Which considers two concepts of diverse algorithmic computational intelligence approaches related tightly with Neural and Non-Neural Systems. The first algorithmic intelligent approach concerned with observed obtained practical results after three neural animal systems’ activities. Namely, they are Pavlov’s, and Thorndike’s experimental work. Besides a mouse’s trial during its movement inside figure of eight (8) maze, to reach an optimal solution for reconstruction problem. Conversely, second algorithmic intelligent approach originated from observed activities’ results for Non-Neural Ant Colony System (ACS). These results obtained after reaching an optimal solution while solving Traveling Sales-man Problem (TSP). Interestingly, the effect of increasing number of agents (either neurons or ants) on learning performance shown to be similar for both introduced systems. Finally, performance of both intelligent learning paradigms shown to be in agreement with learning convergence process searching for least mean square error LMS algorithm. While its application for training some Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. Accordingly, adopted ANN modeling is a relevant and realistic tool to investigate observations and analyze performance for both selected computational intelligence (biological behavioral learning) systems.

Keywords: artificial neural network modeling, animal learning, ant colony system, traveling salesman problem, computational biology

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Authors: Belal Mohamadi Kalesar, Raouf Hasanpour

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Proper placement of Distributed Generation (DG) units such as wind turbine generators in distribution system are still very challenging issue for obtaining their maximum potential benefits because inappropriate placement may increase the system losses. This paper proposes Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) technique for optimal placement of wind based DG (WDG) in the primary distribution system to reduce energy losses and voltage profile improvement with four different wind levels modeling in year duration. Also, wind turbine is modeled as a DFIG that will be operated at unity power factor and only one wind turbine tower will be considered to install at each bus of network. Finally, proposed method will be implemented on widely used 69 bus power distribution system in MATLAB software environment under four scenario (without, one, two and three WDG units) and for capability test of implemented program it is supposed that all buses of standard system can be candidate for WDG installing (large search space), though this program can consider predetermined number of candidate location in WDG placement to model financial limitation of project. Obtained results illustrate that wind speed increasing in some months will increase output power generated but this can increase / decrease power loss in some wind level, also results show that it is required about 3MW WDG capacity to install in different buses but when this is distributed in overall network (more number of WDG) it can cause better solution from point of view of power loss and voltage profile.

Keywords: wind turbine, DG placement, wind levels effect, PSO algorithm

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Authors: Ahmed Slami, Med El Amine Brixi Nigassa, Nassima Labdelli, Sofiane Soulimane, Arnaud Pothier

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Many people suffer from diabetes, a disease marked by abnormal levels of sugar in the blood; 285 million people have diabetes, 6.6% of the world adult population (in 2010), according to the International Diabetes Federation. Insulin medicament is invented to be injected into the body. Generally, the injection requires the patient to do it manually. However, in many cases he will be unable to inject the drug, saw that among the side effects of hyperglycemia is the weakness of the whole body. The researchers designed a medical device that injects insulin too autonomously by using micro-pumps. Many micro-pumps of concepts have been investigated during the last two decades for injecting molecules in blood or in the body. However, all these micro-pumps are intended for slow infusion of drug (injection of few microliters by minute). Now, the challenge is to develop micro-pumps for fast injections (1 microliter in 10 seconds) with accuracy of the order of microliter. Recently, studies have shown that only piezoelectric actuators can achieve this performance, knowing that few systems at the microscopic level were presented. These reasons lead us to design new smart microsystems injection drugs. Therefore, many technological advances are still to achieve the improvement of materials to their uses, while going through their characterization and modeling action mechanisms themselves. Moreover, it remains to study the integration of the piezoelectric micro-pump in the microfluidic platform features to explore and evaluate the performance of these new micro devices. In this work, we propose a new micro-pump model based on piezoelectric actuation with a new design. Here, we use a finite element model with Comsol software. Our device is composed of two pumping chambers, two diaphragms and two actuators (piezoelectric disks). The latter parts will apply a mechanical force on the membrane in a periodic manner. The membrane deformation allows the fluid pumping, the suction and discharge of the liquid. In this study, we present the modeling results as function as device geometry properties, films thickness, and materials properties. Here, we demonstrate that we can achieve fast injection. The results of these simulations will provide quantitative performance of our micro-pumps. Concern the spatial actuation, fluid rate and allows optimization of the fabrication process in terms of materials and integration steps.

Keywords: COMSOL software, piezoelectric, micro-pump, microfluidic

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Authors: Eakarat Boonreang

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The past two decades, Thailand faced the natural disasters, for instance, Gay typhoon in 1989, tsunami in 2004, and huge flood in 2011. The disaster management in Thailand was improved both structure and mechanism for cope with the natural disaster since 2007. However, the natural disaster management in Thailand has various problems, for examples, cooperation between related an organizations have not unity, inadequate resources, the natural disaster management of public sectors not proactive, people has not awareness the risk of the natural disaster, and communities did not participate in the natural disaster management. Objective of this study is to find the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand. The concept and information about the capacity building and the natural disaster management of Thailand were reviewed and analyzed by classifying and organizing data. The result found that the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand should be consist of 1)link operation and information in the natural disaster management between nation, province, local and community levels, 2)enhance competency and resources of public sectors which relate to the natural disaster management, 3)establish proactive natural disaster management both planning and implementation, 4)decentralize the natural disaster management to local government organizations, 5)construct public awareness in the natural disaster management to community, 6)support Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) seriously, and 7)emphasis on participation in the natural disaster management of all stakeholders.

Keywords: capacity building, Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM), Natural Disaster Management, Thailand

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Authors: R. Ananthanarayanan, S. B. Nakula, D. R. Seenivasagam, J. Naua, B. Sharma

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Product packaging is a critical component of production, trade, and marketing, playing numerous vital roles that often go unnoticed by consumers. Packaging is essential for maintaining the shelf life, quality assurance, and safety of both manufactured and agricultural products. For example, harvested produce or processed foods can quickly lose quality and freshness, making secure packaging crucial for preservation and safety throughout the food supply chain. In Fiji, agricultural packaging has primarily been managed by local companies for international trade, with gradual advancements in these practices. To further enhance the industry’s performance, this study examines the challenges and constraints hindering the optimization of agricultural packaging practices in Fiji. The study utilizes Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) tools, specifically Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC). ISM analyzes the hierarchical structure of barriers, categorizing them from the least to the most influential, while MICMAC classifies barriers based on their driving and dependence power. This approach helps identify the interrelationships between barriers, providing valuable insights for policymakers and decision-makers to propose innovative solutions for sustainable development in the agricultural packaging sector, ultimately shaping the future of packaging practices in Fiji.

Keywords: agricultural packaging, barriers, ISM, MICMAC

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Authors: Shu Tao

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Based on a global fuel consumption data product (PKU-FUEL-2007) compiled recently and a series of databases for emission factors of various sources, global emission inventories of a number of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, including CO2, CO, SO2, NOx, primary particulate matter (total, PM 10, and PM 2.5), black carbon, organic carbon, mercury, volatile organic carbons, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, from combustion sources have been developed. The inventories feather high spatial and sectorial resolutions. The spatial resolution of the inventories are 0.1 by 0.1 degree, based on a sub-national disaggregation approach to reduce spatial bias due to uneven distribution of per person fuel consumption within countries. The finely resolved inventories provide critical information for chemical transport modeling and exposure modeling. Emissions from more than 60 sources in energy, industry, agriculture, residential, transportation, and wildfire sectors were quantified in this study. With the detailed sectorial information, the inventories become an important tool for policy makers. For residential sector, a set of models were developed to simulate temporal variation of fuel consumption, consequently pollutant emissions. The models can be used to characterize seasonal as well as inter-annual variations in the emissions in history and to predict future changes. The models can even be used to quantify net change of fuel consumption and pollutant emissions due to climate change. The inventories has been used for model ambient air quality, population exposure, and even health effects. A few examples of the applications are discussed.

Keywords: air pollutants, combustion, emission inventory, sectorial information

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Authors: Sina Keyhanian, Abbas Ahmadi, Behrooz Karimi

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We present a multi-objective binary programming model which considers surgical cases are scheduling among operating rooms and the configuration of surgical instruments in limited capacity hospital trays, simultaneously. Many mathematical models have been developed previously in the literature addressing different challenges in health-care logistics such as assigning operating rooms, leveling beds, etc. But what happens inside the operating rooms along with the inventory management of required instruments for various operations, and also their integration with surgical scheduling have been poorly discussed. Our model considers the minimization of movements between trays during a surgery which recalls the famous cell formation problem in group technology. This assumption can also provide a major potential contribution to robotic surgeries. The tray configuration problem which consumes surgical instruments requirement plan (SIRP) and sequence of surgical procedures based on required instruments (SIRO) is nested inside the bin packing problem. This modeling approach helps us understand that most of the same-output solutions will not be necessarily identical when it comes to the rearrangement of surgeries among rooms. A numerical example has been dealt with via a proposed nested simulated annealing (SA) optimization approach which provides insights about how various configurations inside a solution can alter the optimal condition.

Keywords: health-care logistics, hospital tray configuration, off-line bin packing, simulated annealing optimization, surgical case scheduling

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Authors: Sergio Zabala-Vargas, Miguel Jiménez-Barrera, Luz VArgas-Sánchez

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In recent years, information related to project management in organizations has been increasing exponentially. Performance data, management statistics, indicator results have forced the collection, analysis, traceability, and dissemination of project managers to be essential. In this sense, there are current trends to facilitate efficient decision-making in emerging technology projects, such as: Machine Learning, Data Analytics, Data Mining, and Big Data. The latter is the most interesting in this project. This research is part of the thematic line Construction methods and project management. Many authors present the relevance that the use of emerging technologies, such as Big Data, has taken in recent years in project management in the construction sector. The main focus is the optimization of time, scope, budget, and in general mitigating risks. This research was developed in the northeastern region of Colombia-South America. The first phase was aimed at diagnosing the use of emerging technologies (Big-Data) in the construction sector. In Colombia, the construction sector represents more than 50% of the productive system, and more than 2 million people participate in this economic segment. The quantitative approach was used. A survey was applied to a sample of 91 companies in the construction sector. Preliminary results indicate that the use of Big Data and other emerging technologies is very low and also that there is interest in modernizing project management. There is evidence of a correlation between the interest in using new data management technologies and the incorporation of Building Information Modeling BIM. The next phase of the research will allow the generation of guidelines and strategies for the incorporation of technological tools in the construction sector in Colombia.

Keywords: big data, building information modeling, tecnology, project manamegent

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Authors: V. Pizarro-Carmona, S. Castano-Solis, M. Cortés-Carmona, J. Fraile-Ardanuy, D. Jimenez-Bermejo

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The purpose of this article is to optimize the Equivalent Electric Circuit Model (EECM) of different orders to obtain greater precision in the modeling of Li-ion battery packs. Optimization includes considering circuits based on 1RC, 2RC and 3RC networks, with a dependent voltage source and a series resistor. The parameters are obtained experimentally using tests in the time domain and in the frequency domain. Due to the high non-linearity of the behavior of the battery pack, Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to solve and optimize the parameters of each EECM considered (1RC, 2RC and 3RC). The objective of the estimation is to minimize the mean square error between the measured impedance in the real battery pack and those generated by the simulation of different proposed circuit models. The results have been verified by comparing the Nyquist graphs of the estimation of the complex impedance of the pack. As a result of the optimization, the 2RC and 3RC circuit alternatives are considered as viable to represent the battery behavior. These battery pack models are experimentally validated using a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation platform that reproduces the well-known New York City cycle (NYCC) and Federal Test Procedure (FTP) driving cycles for electric vehicles. The results show that using GA optimization allows obtaining EECs with 2RC or 3RC networks, with high precision to represent the dynamic behavior of a battery pack in vehicular applications.

Keywords: Li-ion battery packs modeling optimized, EECM, GA, electric vehicle applications

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Authors: Muna Mohamed Omer Mirghani

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This paper responds to one of the key national development strategies and a typical challenge in the Gash Basin as well as in different parts of Sudan, namely managing water scarcity in view of climate change impacts in minor water systems sustaining over 50% of the Sudan population. While now focusing on the Gash river basin, the ultimate aim is to replicate the same approach in similar water systems in central and west Sudan. The key objective of the paper is the identification of outcome-based water governance interventions in Gash Basin, guided by the global Sustainable Development Goal six (SDG 6 on water and sanitation) and the Sudan water resource policy framework. The paper concluded that improved water resources management of the Gash Basin is a prerequisite for ensuring desired policy outcomes of groundwater use and flood risk management purposes. Analysis of various water governance dimensions in the Gash indicated that the operationalization of a Basin-level institutional reform is critically focused on informed actors and adapted practices through knowledge and technologies along with the technical data and capacity needed to make that. Adapting the devolved Institutional structure at state level is recommended to strengthen the Gash basin regulatory function and improve compliance of groundwater users.

Keywords: water governance, Gash Basin, integrated groundwater management, Sudan

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Authors: Pyi Phyo Maung

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In the study, the calculations of the permeability coefficient, values of the volume and porosity of a unit cell of a woven fabric before and after deformation based on the geometrical parameters are presented. Two types of carbon woven fabric structures were investigated: standard type, which integrated the filament, has a cross sectional shape of a cylinder and spread tow type, which has a rectangular cross sectional shape. The space antennas reflector, which distinctive feature is the presence of the surface of double curvature, is considered as the object of the research. Modeling of the kinetics of the process of impregnation of the reflector for the two types of carbon fabric’s unit cell structures was performed using software RAM-RTM. This work also investigated the influence of the grid angle between warp and welt of the unit cell on the duration of impregnation process. The results showed that decreasing the angle between warp and welt of the unit cell, the decreasing of the permeability values were occurred. Based on the results of calculation samples of the reflectors, their quality was determined. The comparisons of the theoretical and experimental results have been carried out. Comparison of the two textile structures (standard and spread tow) showed that the standard textiles with circular cross section were impregnated faster than spread tows, which have a rectangular cross section.

Keywords: vacuum assistant resin infusion, impregnation time, shear angle, reflector and modeling

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Authors: Bavneet Kaur Sidhu, Manoj Tiwari

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Global Developmental Delay (GDD) is a common pediatric condition. Etiologies of GDD might, however, differ in developing countries. In the last decade, sporadic families are being reported in various countries. As to the author’s best knowledge, many risk factors and their correlation with the prevalence of GDD have been studied but its statistical correlation has not been done. Thus we propose the present study by targeting the risk factor, prevalence and their statistical correlation with GDD. FMR1 gene was studied to confirm the disease and its penetrance. A complete questionnaire-based performance was designed for the statistical studies having a personal, past and present medical history along with their socio-economic status as well. Methods: We distributed the children’s age in 4 different age groups having 5-year intervals and applied structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques, Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, Karl Pearson correlation coefficient, and chi-square test.Result: A total of 1100 families were enrolled for this study; among them, 330 were clinically and biologically confirmed (radiological studies) for the disease, 204 were males (61.8%), 126 were females (38.18%). We found that 27.87% were genetic and 72.12 were sporadic, out of 72.12 %, 43.277% cases from urban and 56.72% from the rural locality, the mothers' literacy rate was 32.12% and working women numbers were 41.21%. Conclusions: There is a significant association between mothers' age and GDD prevalence, which is also followed by mothers' literacy rate and mothers' occupation, whereas there was no association between fathers' age and GDD.

Keywords: global developmental delay, FMR1 gene, spearman’ rank correlation coefficient, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Stephanie Chen, Mitja Echim, Christof Büskens

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To describe and propagate the behavior of a system mathematical models are formulated. Parameter identification is used to adapt the coefficients of the underlying laws of science. For complex systems this approach can be incomplete and hence imprecise and moreover too slow to be computed efficiently. Therefore, these models might be not applicable for the numerical optimization of real systems, since these techniques require numerous evaluations of the models. Moreover not all quantities necessary for the identification might be available and hence the system must be adapted manually. Therefore, an approach is described that generates models that overcome the before mentioned limitations by not focusing on physical laws, but on measured (sensor) data of real systems. The approach is more general since it generates models for every system detached from the scientific background. Additionally, this approach can be used in a more general sense, since it is able to automatically identify correlations in the data. The method can be classified as a multivariate data regression analysis. In contrast to many other data regression methods this variant is also able to identify correlations of products of variables and not only of single variables. This enables a far more precise and better representation of causal correlations. The basis and the explanation of this method come from an analytical background: the series expansion. Another advantage of this technique is the possibility of real-time adaptation of the generated models during operation. Herewith system changes due to aging, wear or perturbations from the environment can be taken into account, which is indispensable for realistic scenarios. Since these data driven models can be evaluated very efficiently and with high precision, they can be used in mathematical optimization algorithms that minimize a cost function, e.g. time, energy consumption, operational costs or a mixture of them, subject to additional constraints. The proposed method has successfully been tested in several complex applications and with strong industrial requirements. The generated models were able to simulate the given systems with an error in precision less than one percent. Moreover the automatic identification of the correlations was able to discover so far unknown relationships. To summarize the above mentioned approach is able to efficiently compute high precise and real-time-adaptive data-based models in different fields of industry. Combined with an effective mathematical optimization algorithm like WORHP (We Optimize Really Huge Problems) several complex systems can now be represented by a high precision model to be optimized within the user wishes. The proposed methods will be illustrated with different examples.

Keywords: adaptive modeling, automatic identification of correlations, data based modeling, optimization

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Authors: Hyang Lim, Sungwon Choi

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Many previous studies in area of adolescents' depression have used a longitudinal design. The previous studies have found that the developmental trajectory of them is only one. But it needs to be examined whether the trajectory is applied to all adolescents. Some factors in their home and/or school have an effect on adolescents' depression and more likely to be specific groups. The present study was a longitudinal study aimed to identify the trajectories and to explore the predictors of adolescents' depression. The study used Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey (KCYPS) data. In this study, 2,351 second and third-year of middle school and first of high school students' data was analyzed by using semi-parametric group modeling (SGM). There were 5 trajectory groups for adolescents; low depressed stables, low depressed risers, moderately depressed decreases, moderately depressed stables, severe depressed decreases. The predictors of adolescents' depression were parental abuse, parental neglect, annual family income, parental academic background, friendship at school, and teacher-student relationship at school. All predictors had the significant difference across trajectory group profile for adolescents. The findings of the present study recommend to promote the socioeconomic status and to train social skill for the interpersonal relationship at the home and school. And the results suggest that the proper prevention programs for each group in the middle adolescents that target selected factors may be helpful in reducing the level of depression.

Keywords: adolescent, depression, KCYPS, school life, semi-parametric group-based modeling

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Authors: Sifriyani Sifriyani, I Nyoman Budiantara, Sri Haryatmi, Gunardi Gunardi

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East Java Province has a first rank as a province that has the most counties and cities in Indonesia and has the largest population. In 2015, the population reached 38.847.561 million, this figure showed a very high population growth. High population growth is feared to lead to increase the levels of unemployment. In this study, the researchers mapped and modeled the unemployment rate with 6 variables that were supposed to influence. Modeling was done by nonparametric geographically weighted regression methods with truncated spline approach. This method was chosen because spline method is a flexible method, these models tend to look for its own estimation. In this modeling, there were point knots, the point that showed the changes of data. The selection of the optimum point knots was done by selecting the most minimun value of Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). Based on the research, 6 variables were declared to affect the level of unemployment in eastern Java. They were the percentage of population that is educated above high school, the rate of economic growth, the population density, the investment ratio of total labor force, the regional minimum wage and the ratio of the number of big industry and medium scale industry from the work force. The nonparametric geographically weighted regression models with truncated spline approach had a coefficient of determination 98.95% and the value of MSE equal to 0.0047.

Keywords: East Java, nonparametric geographically weighted regression, spatial, spline approach, unemployed rate

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Authors: B. Vadiraj, S. N. Omkar, B. Kapil Bharadwaj, Yash Vardhan Gupta

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During manned exploration of space, missions will require astronaut crewmembers to perform Extra Vehicular Activities (EVAs) for a variety of tasks. These EVAs take place after long periods of operations in space, and in and around unique vehicles, space structures and systems. Considering the remoteness and time spans in which these vehicles will operate, EVA system operations should utilize common worksites, tools and procedures as much as possible to increase the efficiency of training and proficiency in operations. All of the preparations need to be carried out based on studies of astronaut motions. Until now, development and training activities associated with the planned EVAs in Russian and U.S. space programs have relied almost exclusively on physical simulators. These experimental tests are expensive and time consuming. During the past few years a strong increase has been observed in the use of computer simulations due to the fast developments in computer hardware and simulation software. Based on this idea, an effort to develop a computational simulation system to model human dynamic motion for EVA is initiated. This study focuses on the simulation of an astronaut moving the orbital replaceable units into the worksites or removing them from the worksites. Our physics-based methodology helps fill the gap in quantitative analysis of astronaut EVA by providing a multisegment human arm model. Simulation work described in the study improves on the realism of previous efforts, incorporating joint stops to account for the physiological limits of range of motion. To demonstrate the utility of this approach human arm model is simulated virtually using ADAMS/LifeMOD® software. Kinematic mechanism for the astronaut’s task is studied from joint angles and torques. Simulation results obtained is validated with numerical simulation based on the principles of Newton-Euler method. Torques determined using mathematical model are compared among the subjects to know the grace and consistency of the task performed. We conclude that due to uncertain nature of exploration-class EVA, a virtual model developed using multibody dynamics approach offers significant advantages over traditional human modeling approaches.

Keywords: extra vehicular activity, biomechanics, inverse kinematics, human body modeling

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Authors: J. P. Panda, K. Sasmal, H. V. Warrior

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Eddy viscosity models in turbulence modeling can be mainly classified as linear and nonlinear models. Linear formulations are simple and require less computational resources but have the disadvantage that they cannot predict actual flow pattern in complex geophysical flows where streamline curvature and swirling motion are predominant. A constitutive equation of Reynolds stress anisotropy is adopted for the formulation of eddy viscosity including all the possible higher order terms quadratic in the mean velocity gradients, and a simplified model is developed for actual oceanic flows where only the vertical velocity gradients are important. The new model is incorporated into the one dimensional General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Two realistic oceanic test cases (OWS Papa and FLEX' 76) have been investigated. The new model predictions match well with the observational data and are better in comparison to the predictions of the two equation k-epsilon model. The proposed model can be easily incorporated in the three dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to simulate a wide range of oceanic processes. Practically, this model can be implemented in the coastal regions where trasverse shear induces higher vorticity, and for prediction of flow in estuaries and lakes, where depth is comparatively less. The model predictions of marine turbulence and other related data (e.g. Sea surface temperature, Surface heat flux and vertical temperature profile) can be utilized in short term ocean and climate forecasting and warning systems.

Keywords: Eddy viscosity, turbulence modeling, GOTM, CFD

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Authors: Mostafa Aminzadeh, Min Deng

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Modeling loss data is an important part of actuarial science. Actuaries use models to predict future losses and manage financial risk, which can be beneficial for marketing purposes. In the insurance industry, small claims happen frequently while large claims are rare. Traditional distributions such as Normal, Exponential, and inverse-Gaussian are not suitable for describing insurance data, which often show skewness and fat tails. Several authors have studied classical and Bayesian inference for parameters of composite distributions, such as Exponential-Pareto, Weibull-Pareto, and Inverse Gamma-Pareto. These models separate small to moderate losses from large losses using a threshold parameter. This research introduces a computational approach using a nonlinear regression model for loss data that relies on multiple predictors. Simulation studies were conducted to assess the accuracy of the proposed estimation method. The simulations confirmed that the proposed method provides precise estimates for regression parameters. It's important to note that this approach can be applied to datasets if goodness-of-fit tests confirm that the composite distribution under study fits the data well. To demonstrate the computations, a real data set from the insurance industry is analyzed. A Mathematica code uses the Fisher information algorithm as an iteration method to obtain the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of regression parameters.

Keywords: maximum likelihood estimation, fisher scoring method, non-linear regression models, composite distributions

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Authors: M. G. Shilina

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The prospects for political and economic development of the Eurasian space are currently discussed at both governmental and expert levels. New concepts actively proposed by the Eurasian governments require the analysis and search for effective implementation options. In the paper, an attempt to identify effective solutions to the problems surrounding the current economic integration of the Eurasian states is given on the basis of an interdisciplinary, comprehensive, structured analysis. The phenomenon is considered through the prism of the international law, world economy and politics, combined with the study of existing intergovernmental practice. The modeling method was taken as the basis for the research and is supplemented by legal and empirical methods. The detailed multi-level model of practical construction the 'Great Eurasia' (the GE) concept is proposed, the option for building a phased interaction in Eurasia is given through the prism of construction by the Eurasian Economic Union (the EAEU) as the main tool. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (the SCO) is seen as the most promising element of the model. The SCO is capable of streamlining the formation of the GE and determine the transformation of Eurasia into a common economic space. Effective development of the economic integration between Eurasian states on the framework of the SCO is optimal. The SCO+ could be used as a platform for integration-integration processes formation. The creation of stable financial ties could become the basis for the possible formation of an expanded transregional integration platform. The paper concludes that the implementation of the proposed model could entail a gradual economic rapprochement of Eurasia and beyond.

Keywords: economic integration, The Eurasian Economic Union, The European Union, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the silk road economic belt

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Sebastian Kohlstädt, Michael Vynnycky, Stephan Goeke, Jan Jäckel, Andreas Gebauer-Teichmann

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This paper summarizes the progress in the latest computational fluid dynamics research towards the modeling in of lost core viability in high-pressure die casting. High-pressure die casting is a process that is widely employed in the automotive and neighboring industries due to its advantages in casting quality and cost efficiency. The degrees of freedom are however somewhat limited as it has been so far difficult to use lost cores in the process. This is right now changing and the deployment of lost cores is considered a future growth potential for high-pressure die casting companies. The use of this technology itself is difficult though. The strength of the core material, as chiefly salt is used, is limited and experiments have shown that the cores will not hold under all circumstances and process designs. For this purpose, the publicly available CFD library foam-extend (OpenFOAM) is used, and two additional fluid models for incompressible and compressible two-phase flow are implemented as fluid solver models into the FSI library. For this purpose, the volume-of-fluid (VOF) methodology is used. The necessity for the fluid-structure interaction (FSI) approach is shown by a simple CFD model geometry. The model is benchmarked against analytical models and experimental data. Sufficient agreement is found with the analytical models and good agreement with the experimental data. An outlook on future developments concludes the paper.

Keywords: CFD, fluid-structure interaction, high-pressure die casting, multiphase flow

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Authors: Raz Flieshman, Adam Michael Altenbuchner, Jörg Krüger

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This paper presents an approach to optimizing the Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) 3D printing process through a preprocess calibration routine of printing parameters. The core of this method involves the use of a low-cost thermal sensor capable of measuring tempera-tures within the range of -20 to 500 degrees Celsius for detailed process observation. The calibration process is conducted by printing a predetermined path while varying the process parameters through machine instructions (g-code). This enables the extraction of critical thermal, dimensional, and surface properties along the printed path. The calibration routine utilizes computer vision models to extract features and metrics from the thermal images, in-cluding temperature distribution, layer adhesion quality, surface roughness, and dimension-al accuracy and consistency. These extracted properties are then analyzed to optimize the process parameters to achieve the desired qualities of the printed material. A significant benefit of this calibration method is its potential to create printing parameter profiles for new polymer and composite materials, thereby enhancing the versatility and application range of FDM 3D printing. The proposed method demonstrates significant potential in enhancing the precision and reliability of FDM 3D printing, making it a valuable contribution to the field of additive manufacturing.

Keywords: FDM 3D printing, preprocess calibration, thermal sensor, process optimization, additive manufacturing, computer vision, material profiles

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Authors: Hounyèmè Romuald, Maxime Logez, Mama Daouda, Argillier Christine

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In view of the very strong degradation of aquatic ecosystems, it is urgent to set up monitoring systems that are best able to report on the effects of the stresses they undergo. This is particularly true in developing countries, where specific and relevant quality standards and funding for monitoring programs are lacking. The objective of this study was to make a relevant and objective choice of physicochemical parameters informative of the main stressors occurring on African lakes and to identify their alteration thresholds. Based on statistical analyses of the relationship between several driving forces and the physicochemical parameters of the Nokoué lagoon, relevant Physico-chemical parameters were selected for its monitoring. An innovative method based on Bayesian statistical modeling was used. Eleven Physico-chemical parameters were selected for their response to at least one stressor and their threshold quality standards were also established: Total Phosphorus (<4.5mg/L), Orthophosphates (<0.2mg/L), Nitrates (<0.5 mg/L), TKN (<1.85 mg/L), Dry Organic Matter (<5 mg/L), Dissolved Oxygen (>4 mg/L), BOD (<11.6 mg/L), Salinity (7.6 .), Water Temperature (<28.7 °C), pH (>6.2), and Transparency (>0.9 m). According to the System for the Evaluation of Coastal Water Quality, these thresholds correspond to” good to medium” suitability classes, except for total phosphorus. One of the original features of this study is the use of the bounds of the credibility interval of the fixed-effect coefficients as local weathering standards for the characterization of the Physico-chemical status of this anthropized African ecosystem.

Keywords: driving forces, alteration thresholds, acadjas, monitoring, modeling, human activities

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Authors: Anaissia Franca, Julian Fernandez, Curran Crawford, Ned Djilali

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A methodology to estimate the state-of-charge (SOC) of battery electric buses, including degradation effects, for a given driving cycle is presented to support long-term techno-economic analysis integrating electric buses and charging infrastructure. The degradation mechanisms, characterized by both capacity and power fade with time, have been modeled using an electrochemical model for Li-ion batteries. Iterative changes in the negative electrode film resistance and decrease in available lithium as a function of utilization is simulated for every cycle. The cycles are formulated to follow typical transit bus driving patterns. The power and capacity decay resulting from the degradation model are introduced as inputs to a longitudinal chassis dynamic analysis that calculates the power consumption of the bus for a given driving cycle to find the state-of-charge of the battery as a function of time. The method is applied to an in-depot charging scenario, for which the bus is charged exclusively at the depot, overnight and to its full capacity. This scenario is run both with and without including degradation effects over time to illustrate the significant impact of degradation mechanisms on bus performance when doing feasibility studies for a fleet of electric buses. The impact of battery degradation on battery lifetime is also assessed. The modeling tool can be further used to optimize component sizing and charging locations for electric bus deployment projects.

Keywords: battery electric bus, E-bus, in-depot charging, lithium-ion battery, battery degradation, capacity fade, power fade, electric vehicle, SEI, electrochemical models

Procedia PDF Downloads 319