Search results for: dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9646

Search results for: dynamic stochastic general equilibrium

9556 Modeling the Road Pavement Dynamic Response Due to Heavy Vehicles Loadings and Kinematic Excitations General Asymmetries

Authors: Josua K. Junias, Fillemon N. Nangolo, Petrina T. Johaness

Abstract:

The deterioration of pavement can lead to the formation of potholes, which cause the wheels of a vehicle to experience unusual and uneven movement. In addition, improper loading practices of heavy vehicles can result in dynamic loading of the pavement due to the vehicle's response to the irregular movement caused by the potholes. Previous studies have only focused on the effects of either the road's uneven surface or the asymmetrical loading of the vehicle, but not both. This study aimed to model the pavement's dynamic response to heavy vehicles under different loading configurations and wheel movements. A sample of 225 cases with symmetrical and asymmetrical loading and kinematic movements was used, and 27 validated 3D pavement-vehicle interactive models were developed using SIMWISE 4D. The study found that the type of kinematic movement experienced by the heavy vehicle affects the pavement's dynamic loading, with eccentrically loaded, asymmetrically kinematic heavy vehicles having a statistically significant impact. The study also suggests that the mass of the vehicle's suspension system plays a role in the pavement's dynamic loading.

Keywords: eccentricities, pavement dynamic loading, vertical displacement dynamic response, heavy vehicles

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9555 Solving Stochastic Eigenvalue Problem of Wick Type

Authors: Hassan Manouzi, Taous-Meriem Laleg-Kirati

Abstract:

In this paper we study mathematically the eigenvalue problem for stochastic elliptic partial differential equation of Wick type. Using the Wick-product and the Wiener-Ito chaos expansion, the stochastic eigenvalue problem is reformulated as a system of an eigenvalue problem for a deterministic partial differential equation and elliptic partial differential equations by using the Fredholm alternative. To reduce the computational complexity of this system, we shall use a decomposition-coordination method. Once this approximation is performed, the statistics of the numerical solution can be easily evaluated.

Keywords: eigenvalue problem, Wick product, SPDEs, finite element, Wiener-Ito chaos expansion

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9554 Some Basic Problems for the Elastic Material with Voids in the Case of Approximation N=1 of Vekua's Theory

Authors: Bakur Gulua

Abstract:

In this work, we consider some boundary value problems for the plate. The plate is the elastic material with voids. The state of plate equilibrium is described by the system of differential equations that is derived from three-dimensional equations of equilibrium of an elastic material with voids (Cowin-Nunziato model) by Vekua's reduction method. Its general solution is represented by means of analytic functions of a complex variable and solutions of Helmholtz equations. The problem is solved analytically by the method of the theory of functions of a complex variable.

Keywords: the elastic material with voids, boundary value problems, Vekua's reduction method, a complex variable

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9553 Theoretical Modeling of Self-Healing Polymers Crosslinked by Dynamic Bonds

Authors: Qiming Wang

Abstract:

Dynamic polymer networks (DPNs) crosslinked by dynamic bonds have received intensive attention because of their special crack-healing capability. Diverse DPNs have been synthesized using a number of dynamic bonds, including dynamic covalent bond, hydrogen bond, ionic bond, metal-ligand coordination, hydrophobic interaction, and others. Despite the promising success in the polymer synthesis, the fundamental understanding of their self-healing mechanics is still at the very beginning. Especially, a general analytical model to understand the interfacial self-healing behaviors of DPNs has not been established. Here, we develop polymer-network based analytical theories that can mechanistically model the constitutive behaviors and interfacial self-healing behaviors of DPNs. We consider that the DPN is composed of interpenetrating networks crosslinked by dynamic bonds. bonds obey a force-dependent chemical kinetics. During the self-healing process, we consider the The network chains follow inhomogeneous chain-length distributions and the dynamic polymer chains diffuse across the interface to reform the dynamic bonds, being modeled by a diffusion-reaction theory. The theories can predict the stress-stretch behaviors of original and self-healed DPNs, as well as the healing strength in a function of healing time. We show that the theoretically predicted healing behaviors can consistently match the documented experimental results of DPNs with various dynamic bonds, including dynamic covalent bonds (diarylbibenzofuranone and olefin metathesis), hydrogen bonds, and ionic bonds. We expect our model to be a powerful tool for the self-healing community to invent, design, understand, and optimize self-healing DPNs with various dynamic bonds.

Keywords: self-healing polymers, dynamic covalent bonds, hydrogen bonds, ionic bonds

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9552 Numerical Simulation of Wishart Diffusion Processes

Authors: Raphael Naryongo, Philip Ngare, Anthony Waititu

Abstract:

This paper deals with numerical simulation of Wishart processes for a single asset risky pricing model whose volatility is described by Wishart affine diffusion processes. The multi-factor specification of volatility will make the model more flexible enough to fit the stock market data for short or long maturities for better returns. The Wishart process is a stochastic process which is a positive semi-definite matrix-valued generalization of the square root process. The aim of the study is to model the log asset stock returns under the double Wishart stochastic volatility model. The solution of the log-asset return dynamics for Bi-Wishart processes will be obtained through Euler-Maruyama discretization schemes. The numerical results on the asset returns are compared to the existing models returns such as Heston stochastic volatility model and double Heston stochastic volatility model

Keywords: euler schemes, log-asset return, infinitesimal generator, wishart diffusion affine processes

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9551 Dynamical Relation of Poisson Spike Trains in Hodkin-Huxley Neural Ion Current Model and Formation of Non-Canonical Bases, Islands, and Analog Bases in DNA, mRNA, and RNA at or near the Transcription

Authors: Michael Fundator

Abstract:

Groundbreaking application of biomathematical and biochemical research in neural networks processes to formation of non-canonical bases, islands, and analog bases in DNA and mRNA at or near the transcription that contradicts the long anticipated statistical assumptions for the distribution of bases and analog bases compounds is implemented through statistical and stochastic methods apparatus with addition of quantum principles, where the usual transience of Poisson spike train becomes very instrumental tool for finding even almost periodical type of solutions to Fokker-Plank stochastic differential equation. Present article develops new multidimensional methods of finding solutions to stochastic differential equations based on more rigorous approach to mathematical apparatus through Kolmogorov-Chentsov continuity theorem that allows the stochastic processes with jumps under certain conditions to have γ-Holder continuous modification that is used as basis for finding analogous parallels in dynamics of neutral networks and formation of analog bases and transcription in DNA.

Keywords: Fokker-Plank stochastic differential equation, Kolmogorov-Chentsov continuity theorem, neural networks, translation and transcription

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9550 Modelling Structural Breaks in Stock Price Time Series Using Stochastic Differential Equations

Authors: Daniil Karzanov

Abstract:

This paper studies the effect of quarterly earnings reports on the stock price. The profitability of the stock is modeled by geometric Brownian diffusion and the Constant Elasticity of Variance model. We fit several variations of stochastic differential equations to the pre-and after-report period using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Grid Search of parameters method. By examining the change in the model parameters after reports’ publication, the study reveals that the reports have enough evidence to be a structural breakpoint, meaning that all the forecast models exploited are not applicable for forecasting and should be refitted shortly.

Keywords: stock market, earnings reports, financial time series, structural breaks, stochastic differential equations

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9549 Efficient Bargaining versus Right to Manage in the Era of Liberalization

Authors: Panagiota Koliousi, Natasha Miaouli

Abstract:

We compare product and labour market liberalization under the two trade union bargaining models: the Right-to-Manage (RTM) model and the Efficient Bargaining (EB) model. The vehicle is a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model that incorporates two types of agents (capitalists and workers), imperfectly competitive product and labour markets. The model is solved numerically employing common parameter values and data from the euro area. A key message is that product market deregulation is favourable under any labour market structure while opting for labour market deregulation one should provide special attention to the structure of the labour market such as the bargaining system of unions. If the prevailing way of bargaining is the RTM model then restructuring both markets is beneficial for all agents.

Keywords: market structure, structural reforms, trade unions, unemployment

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9548 Comparison of Allowable Stress Method and Time History Response Analysis for Seismic Design of Buildings

Authors: Sayuri Inoue, Naohiro Nakamura, Tsubasa Hamada

Abstract:

The seismic design method of buildings is classified into two types: static design and dynamic design. The static design is a design method that exerts static force as seismic force and is a relatively simple design method created based on the experience of seismic motion in the past 100 years. At present, static design is used for most of the Japanese buildings. Dynamic design mainly refers to the time history response analysis. It is a comparatively difficult design method that input the earthquake motion assumed in the building model and examine the response. Currently, it is only used for skyscrapers and specific buildings. In the present design standard in Japan, it is good to use either the design method of the static design and the dynamic design in the medium and high-rise buildings. However, when actually designing middle and high-rise buildings by two kinds of design methods, the relatively simple static design method satisfies the criteria, but in the case of a little difficult dynamic design method, the criterion isn't often satisfied. This is because the dynamic design method was built with the intention of designing super high-rise buildings. In short, higher safety is required as compared with general buildings, and criteria become stricter. The authors consider applying the dynamic design method to general buildings designed by the static design method so far. The reason is that application of the dynamic design method is reasonable for buildings that are out of the conventional standard structural form such as emphasizing design. For the purpose, it is important to compare the design results when the criteria of both design methods are arranged side by side. In this study, we performed time history response analysis to medium-rise buildings that were actually designed with allowable stress method. Quantitative comparison between static design and dynamic design was conducted, and characteristics of both design methods were examined.

Keywords: buildings, seismic design, allowable stress design, time history response analysis, Japanese seismic code

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9547 Applicability of Linearized Model of Synchronous Generator for Power System Stability Analysis

Authors: J. Ritonja, B. Grcar

Abstract:

For the synchronous generator simulation and analysis and for the power system stabilizer design and synthesis a mathematical model of synchronous generator is needed. The model has to accurately describe dynamics of oscillations, while at the same time has to be transparent enough for an analysis and sufficiently simplified for design of control system. To study the oscillations of the synchronous generator against to the rest of the power system, the model of the synchronous machine connected to an infinite bus through a transmission line having resistance and inductance is needed. In this paper, the linearized reduced order dynamic model of the synchronous generator connected to the infinite bus is presented and analysed in details. This model accurately describes dynamics of the synchronous generator only in a small vicinity of an equilibrium state. With the digression from the selected equilibrium point the accuracy of this model is decreasing considerably. In this paper, the equations’ descriptions and the parameters’ determinations for the linearized reduced order mathematical model of the synchronous generator are explained and summarized and represent the useful origin for works in the areas of synchronous generators’ dynamic behaviour analysis and synchronous generator’s control systems design and synthesis. The main contribution of this paper represents the detailed analysis of the accuracy of the linearized reduced order dynamic model in the entire synchronous generator’s operating range. Borders of the areas where the linearized reduced order mathematical model represents accurate description of the synchronous generator’s dynamics are determined with the systemic numerical analysis. The thorough eigenvalue analysis of the linearized models in the entire operating range is performed. In the paper, the parameters of the linearized reduced order dynamic model of the laboratory salient poles synchronous generator were determined and used for the analysis. The theoretical conclusions were confirmed with the agreement of experimental and simulation results.

Keywords: eigenvalue analysis, mathematical model, power system stability, synchronous generator

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9546 Using Axiomatic Design for Developing a Framework of Manufacturing Cloud Service Composition in the Equilibrium State

Authors: Ehsan Vaziri Goodarzi, Mahmood Houshmand, Omid Fatahi Valilai, Vahidreza Ghezavati, Shahrooz Bamdad

Abstract:

One important paradigm of industry 4.0 is Cloud Manufacturing (CM). In CM everything is considered as a service, therefore, the CM platform should consider all service provider's capabilities and tries to integrate services in an equilibrium state. This research develops a framework for implementing manufacturing cloud service composition in the equilibrium state. The developed framework using well-known tools called axiomatic design (AD) and game theory. The research has investigated the factors for forming equilibrium for measures of the manufacturing cloud service composition. Functional requirements (FRs) represent the measures of manufacturing cloud service composition in the equilibrium state. These FRs satisfied by related Design Parameters (DPs). The FRs and DPs are defined by considering the game theory, QoS, consumer needs, parallel and cooperative services. Ultimately, four FRs and DPs represent the framework. To insure the validity of the framework, the authors have used the first AD’s independent axiom.

Keywords: axiomatic design, manufacturing cloud service composition, cloud manufacturing, industry 4.0

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9545 Forecasting the Volatility of Geophysical Time Series with Stochastic Volatility Models

Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar

Abstract:

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.

Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model

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9544 Energy System Analysis Using Data-Driven Modelling and Bayesian Methods

Authors: Paul Rowley, Adam Thirkill, Nick Doylend, Philip Leicester, Becky Gough

Abstract:

The dynamic performance of all energy generation technologies is impacted to varying degrees by the stochastic properties of the wider system within which the generation technology is located. This stochasticity can include the varying nature of ambient renewable energy resources such as wind or solar radiation, or unpredicted changes in energy demand which impact upon the operational behaviour of thermal generation technologies. An understanding of these stochastic impacts are especially important in contexts such as highly distributed (or embedded) generation, where an understanding of issues affecting the individual or aggregated performance of high numbers of relatively small generators is especially important, such as in ESCO projects. Probabilistic evaluation of monitored or simulated performance data is one technique which can provide an insight into the dynamic performance characteristics of generating systems, both in a prognostic sense (such as the prediction of future performance at the project’s design stage) as well as in a diagnostic sense (such as in the real-time analysis of underperforming systems). In this work, we describe the development, application and outcomes of a new approach to the acquisition of datasets suitable for use in the subsequent performance and impact analysis (including the use of Bayesian approaches) for a number of distributed generation technologies. The application of the approach is illustrated using a number of case studies involving domestic and small commercial scale photovoltaic, solar thermal and natural gas boiler installations, and the results as presented show that the methodology offers significant advantages in terms of plant efficiency prediction or diagnosis, along with allied environmental and social impacts such as greenhouse gas emission reduction or fuel affordability.

Keywords: renewable energy, dynamic performance simulation, Bayesian analysis, distributed generation

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9543 Modeling and Simulation of Ship Structures Using Finite Element Method

Authors: Javid Iqbal, Zhu Shifan

Abstract:

The development in the construction of unconventional ships and the implementation of lightweight materials have shown a large impulse towards finite element (FE) method, making it a general tool for ship design. This paper briefly presents the modeling and analysis techniques of ship structures using FE method for complex boundary conditions which are difficult to analyze by existing Ship Classification Societies rules. During operation, all ships experience complex loading conditions. These loads are general categories into thermal loads, linear static, dynamic and non-linear loads. General strength of the ship structure is analyzed using static FE analysis. FE method is also suitable to consider the local loads generated by ballast tanks and cargo in addition to hydrostatic and hydrodynamic loads. Vibration analysis of a ship structure and its components can be performed using FE method which helps in obtaining the dynamic stability of the ship. FE method has developed better techniques for calculation of natural frequencies and different mode shapes of ship structure to avoid resonance both globally and locally. There is a lot of development towards the ideal design in ship industry over the past few years for solving complex engineering problems by employing the data stored in the FE model. This paper provides an overview of ship modeling methodology for FE analysis and its general application. Historical background, the basic concept of FE, advantages, and disadvantages of FE analysis are also reported along with examples related to hull strength and structural components.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, finite element methods, ship structure, vibration analysis

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9542 Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting Method with Dynamic Normal Inverse Gaussian Mortality Index

Authors: Funda Kul, İsmail Gür

Abstract:

Pension scheme providers have to price mortality risk by accurate mortality forecasting method. There are many mortality-forecasting methods constructed and used in literature. The Lee-Carter model is the first model to consider stochastic improvement trends in life expectancy. It is still precisely used. Mortality forecasting is done by mortality index in the Lee-Carter model. It is assumed that mortality index fits ARIMA time series model. In this paper, we propose and use dynamic normal inverse gaussian distribution to modeling mortality indes in the Lee-Carter model. Using population mortality data for Italy, France, and Turkey, the model is forecasting capability is investigated, and a comparative analysis with other models is ensured by some well-known benchmarking criterions.

Keywords: mortality, forecasting, lee-carter model, normal inverse gaussian distribution

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9541 Numerical Simulations on Feasibility of Stochastic Model Predictive Control for Linear Discrete-Time Systems with Random Dither Quantization

Authors: Taiki Baba, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

The random dither quantization method enables us to achieve much better performance than the simple uniform quantization method for the design of quantized control systems. Motivated by this fact, the stochastic model predictive control method in which a performance index is minimized subject to probabilistic constraints imposed on the state variables of systems has been proposed for linear feedback control systems with random dither quantization. In other words, a method for solving optimal control problems subject to probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time control systems with random dither quantization has been already established. To our best knowledge, however, the feasibility of such a kind of optimal control problems has not yet been studied. Our objective in this paper is to investigate the feasibility of stochastic model predictive control problems for linear discrete-time control systems with random dither quantization. To this end, we provide the results of numerical simulations that verify the feasibility of stochastic model predictive control problems for linear discrete-time control systems with random dither quantization.

Keywords: model predictive control, stochastic systems, probabilistic constraints, random dither quantization

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9540 Global Analysis in a Growth Economic Model with Perfect-Substitution Technologies

Authors: Paolo Russu

Abstract:

The purpose of the present paper is to highlight some features of an economic growth model with environmental negative externalities, giving rise to a three-dimensional dynamic system. In particular, we show that the economy, which is based on a Perfect-Substitution Technologies function of production, has no neither indeterminacy nor poverty trap. This implies that equilibrium select by economy depends on the history (initial values of state variable) of the economy rather than on expectations of economies agents. Moreover, by contrast, we prove that the basin of attraction of locally equilibrium points may be very large, as they can extend up to the boundary of the system phase space. The infinite-horizon optimal control problem has the purpose of maximizing the representative agent’s instantaneous utility function depending on leisure and consumption.

Keywords: Hopf bifurcation, open-access natural resources, optimal control, perfect-substitution technologies, Poincarè compactification

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9539 Stochastic Simulation of Random Numbers Using Linear Congruential Method

Authors: Melvin Ballera, Aldrich Olivar, Mary Soriano

Abstract:

Digital computers nowadays must be able to have a utility that is capable of generating random numbers. Usually, computer-generated random numbers are not random given predefined values such as starting point and end points, making the sequence almost predictable. There are many applications of random numbers such business simulation, manufacturing, services domain, entertainment sector and other equally areas making worthwhile to design a unique method and to allow unpredictable random numbers. Applying stochastic simulation using linear congruential algorithm, it shows that as it increases the numbers of the seed and range the number randomly produced or selected by the computer becomes unique. If this implemented in an environment where random numbers are very much needed, the reliability of the random number is guaranteed.

Keywords: stochastic simulation, random numbers, linear congruential algorithm, pseudorandomness

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9538 Numerical Simulation of Aeroelastic Influence Exerted by Kinematic and Geometrical Parameters on Oscillations' Frequencies and Phase Shift Angles in a Simulated Compressor of Gas Transmittal Unit

Authors: Liliia N. Butymova, Vladimir Y. Modorsky, Nikolai A. Shevelev

Abstract:

Prediction of vibration processes in gas transmittal units (GTU) is an urgent problem. Despite numerous scientific publications on the problem of vibrations in general, there are not enough works concerning FSI-modeling interaction processes between several deformable blades in gas-dynamic flow. Since it is very difficult to solve the problem in full scope, with all factors considered, a unidirectional dynamic coupled 1FSI model is suggested for use at the first stage, which would include, from symmetry considerations, two blades, which might be considered as the first stage of solving more general bidirectional problem. ANSYS CFX programmed multi-processor was chosen as a numerical computation tool. The problem was solved on PNRPU high-capacity computer complex. At the first stage of the study, blades were believed oscillating with the same frequency, although oscillation phases could be equal and could be different. At that non-stationary gas-dynamic forces distribution over the blades surfaces is calculated in run of simulation experiment. Oscillations in the “gas — structure” dynamic system are assumed to increase if the resultant of these gas-dynamic forces is in-phase with blade oscillation, and phase shift (φ=0). Provided these oscillation occur with phase shift, then oscillations might increase or decrease, depending on the phase shift value. The most important results are as follows: the angle of phase shift in inter-blade oscillation and the gas-dynamic force depends on the flow velocity, the specific inter-blade gap, and the shaft rotation speed; a phase shift in oscillation of adjacent blades does not always correspond to phase shift of gas-dynamic forces affecting the blades. Thus, it was discovered, that asynchronous oscillation of blades might cause either attenuation or intensification of oscillation. It was revealed that clocking effect might depend not only on the mutual circumferential displacement of blade rows and the gap between the blades, but also on the blade dynamic deformation nature.

Keywords: aeroelasticity, ANSYS CFX, oscillation, phase shift, clocking effect, vibrations

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9537 Static and Dynamic Analysis on a Buddhism Goddess Guanyin in Shuangyashan

Authors: Gong Kangming, Zhao Caiqi

Abstract:

High-rise special-shaped structure, such as main frame structure of the statues, is one of the structure forms in irregular structure widely used. Due to the complex shape of the statue structure, with a large aspect ratio, its wind load value and the overall mechanical properties are very different from the high-rise buildings with the general rules. The paper taking a certain 48 meters high main frame structure of the statue located in Shuangyashan City, Heilongjiang Province, static and dynamic properties are analyzed by the finite element software. Through static and dynamic analysis, it got a number of useful conclusions that have a certain reference value for the analysis and design of the future similar structure.

Keywords: a Buddhism goddess Guanyin body, wind load, dynamic analysis, bolster, node design

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9536 Increasing Performance of Autopilot Guided Small Unmanned Helicopter

Authors: Tugrul Oktay, Mehmet Konar, Mustafa Soylak, Firat Sal, Murat Onay, Orhan Kizilkaya

Abstract:

In this paper, autonomous performance of a small manufactured unmanned helicopter is tried to be increased. For this purpose, a small unmanned helicopter is manufactured in Erciyes University, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics. It is called as ZANKA-Heli-I. For performance maximization, autopilot parameters are determined via minimizing a cost function consisting of flight performance parameters such as settling time, rise time, overshoot during trajectory tracking. For this purpose, a stochastic optimization method named as simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation is benefited. Using this approach, considerable autonomous performance increase (around %23) is obtained.

Keywords: small helicopters, hierarchical control, stochastic optimization, autonomous performance maximization, autopilots

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9535 A Hierarchical Bayesian Calibration of Data-Driven Models for Composite Laminate Consolidation

Authors: Nikolaos Papadimas, Joanna Bennett, Amir Sakhaei, Timothy Dodwell

Abstract:

Composite modeling of consolidation processes is playing an important role in the process and part design by indicating the formation of possible unwanted prior to expensive experimental iterative trial and development programs. Composite materials in their uncured state display complex constitutive behavior, which has received much academic interest, and this with different models proposed. Errors from modeling and statistical which arise from this fitting will propagate through any simulation in which the material model is used. A general hyperelastic polynomial representation was proposed, which can be readily implemented in various nonlinear finite element packages. In our case, FEniCS was chosen. The coefficients are assumed uncertain, and therefore the distribution of parameters learned using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In engineering, the approach often followed is to select a single set of model parameters, which on average, best fits a set of experiments. There are good statistical reasons why this is not a rigorous approach to take. To overcome these challenges, A hierarchical Bayesian framework was proposed in which population distribution of model parameters is inferred from an ensemble of experiments tests. The resulting sampled distribution of hyperparameters is approximated using Maximum Entropy methods so that the distribution of samples can be readily sampled when embedded within a stochastic finite element simulation. The methodology is validated and demonstrated on a set of consolidation experiments of AS4/8852 with various stacking sequences. The resulting distributions are then applied to stochastic finite element simulations of the consolidation of curved parts, leading to a distribution of possible model outputs. With this, the paper, as far as the authors are aware, represents the first stochastic finite element implementation in composite process modelling.

Keywords: data-driven , material consolidation, stochastic finite elements, surrogate models

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9534 A Stochastic Approach to Extreme Wind Speeds Conditions on a Small Axial Wind Turbine

Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

Abstract:

In this paper, to model a real life wind turbine, a probabilistic approach is proposed to model the dynamics of the blade elements of a small axial wind turbine under extreme stochastic wind speeds conditions. It was found that the power and the torque probability density functions even though decreases at these extreme wind speeds but are not infinite. Moreover, we also found that it is possible to stabilize the power coefficient (stabilizing the output power) above rated wind speeds by turning some control parameters. This method helps to explain the effect of turbulence on the quality and quantity of the harness power and aerodynamic torque.

Keywords: probability, probability density function, stochastic, turbulence

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9533 A Two Stage Stochastic Mathematical Model for the Tramp Ship Routing with Time Windows Problem

Authors: Amin Jamili

Abstract:

Nowadays, the majority of international trade in goods is carried by sea, and especially by ships deployed in the industrial and tramp segments. This paper addresses routing the tramp ships and determining the schedules including the arrival times to the ports, berthing times at the ports, and the departure times in an operational planning level. In the operational planning level, the weather can be almost exactly forecasted, however in some routes some uncertainties may remain. In this paper, the voyaging times between some of the ports are considered to be uncertain. To that end, a two-stage stochastic mathematical model is proposed. Moreover, a case study is tested with the presented model. The computational results show that this mathematical model is promising and can represent acceptable solutions.

Keywords: routing, scheduling, tram ships, two stage stochastic model, uncertainty

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9532 Legal Interpretation of the Transplanted Law

Authors: Wahyu Kurniawan

Abstract:

Indonesia developed the legal system radically since 1999. Several laws have been established and mostly the result of transplantation. Laws were made general but legal problems have been growing. In the legal enforcement, the judges have authority to interpret the laws. Authority and freedom are the source of corruption by the courts in Indonesia. Therefore, it should be built the conceptual framework to interpret the transplanted laws as the legal basis in deciding the cases. This article describes legal development based on interpretation of transplanted law in Indonesia by using the Indonesian Supervisory Commission for Business Competition (KPPU) decisions between 2000 and 2010 as the object of the research. The study was using law as a system theory and theories of legal interpretation especially the static and dynamic interpretations. The research showed that the KPPU interpreted the concept that exists in the Competition Law by using static and dynamic interpretation. Static interpretation was used to interpret the legal concepts based on two grounds, minute of meeting during law making process and the definitions that have been recognized in the Indonesian legal system. Dynamic interpretation was used when the KPPU developing the definition of the legal concepts. The general purpose of the law and the theories of the basis of the law were the conceptual framework in using dynamic interpretation. There are two recommendations in this article. Firstly, interpreting the laws by the judges should be based on the correct conceptual framework. Secondly, the technique of interpreting the laws would be the method of controlling the judges.

Keywords: legal interpretation, legal transplant, competition law, KPPU

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9531 A Computational Study on Solvent Effects on the Keto-Enol Tautomeric Equilibrium of Dimedone and Acetylacetone 1,3- Dicabonyls

Authors: Imad Eddine Charif, Sidi Mohamed Mekelleche, Didier Villemin

Abstract:

The solvent effects on the keto-enol tautomeric equilibriums of acetylacetone and dimedone are theoretically investigated at the correlated Becke-3-parameter-Lee-Yang-Parr (B3LYP) and second-order Møller-Plesset (MP2) computational levels. The present study shows that the most stable keto tautomer of acetylacetone corresponds to the trans-diketo, E,Z form; while the most stable enol tautomer corresponds to the closed cis-enol,Z,Z form. The keto tautomer of dimedone prefers the trans diketo, E, E form; while the most stable enol tautomer corresponds to trans-enol form. The calculated free Gibbs enthalpies indicate that, in polar solvents, the keto-enol equilibrium of acetylacetone is shifted toward the keto tautomer; whereas the keto-enol equilibrium of dimedone is shifted towards the enol tautomer. The experimental trends of the change of equilibrium constants with respect to the change of solvent polarity are well reproduced by both B3LYP and MP2 calculations.

Keywords: acetylacetone, dimedone, solvent effects, keto-enol equilibrium, theoretical calculations

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9530 A Reactive Flexible Job Shop Scheduling Model in a Stochastic Environment

Authors: Majid Khalili, Hamed Tayebi

Abstract:

This paper considers a stochastic flexible job-shop scheduling (SFJSS) problem in the presence of production disruptions, and reactive scheduling is implemented in order to find the optimal solution under uncertainty. In this problem, there are two main disruptions including machine failure which influences operation time, and modification or cancellation of the order delivery date during production. In order to decrease the negative effects of these difficulties, two derived strategies from reactive scheduling are used; the first one is relevant to being able to allocate multiple machine to each job, and the other one is related to being able to select the best alternative process from other job while some disruptions would be created in the processes of a job. For this purpose, a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model is proposed.

Keywords: flexible job-shop scheduling, reactive scheduling, stochastic environment, mixed integer linear programming

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9529 On the System of Split Equilibrium and Fixed Point Problems in Real Hilbert Spaces

Authors: Francis O. Nwawuru, Jeremiah N. Ezeora

Abstract:

In this paper, a new algorithm for solving the system of split equilibrium and fixed point problems in real Hilbert spaces is considered. The equilibrium bifunction involves a nite family of pseudo-monotone mappings, which is an improvement over monotone operators. More so, it turns out that the solution of the finite family of nonexpansive mappings. The regularized parameters do not depend on Lipschitz constants. Also, the computations of the stepsize, which plays a crucial role in the convergence analysis of the proposed method, do require prior knowledge of the norm of the involved bounded linear map. Furthermore, to speed up the rate of convergence, an inertial term technique is introduced in the proposed method. Under standard assumptions on the operators and the control sequences, using a modified Halpern iteration method, we establish strong convergence, a desired result in applications. Finally, the proposed scheme is applied to solve some optimization problems. The result obtained improves numerous results announced earlier in this direction.

Keywords: equilibrium, Hilbert spaces, fixed point, nonexpansive mapping, extragradient method, regularized equilibrium

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9528 Regularization of Gene Regulatory Networks Perturbed by White Noise

Authors: Ramazan I. Kadiev, Arcady Ponosov

Abstract:

Mathematical models of gene regulatory networks can in many cases be described by ordinary differential equations with switching nonlinearities, where the initial value problem is ill-posed. Several regularization methods are known in the case of deterministic networks, but the presence of stochastic noise leads to several technical difficulties. In the presentation, it is proposed to apply the methods of the stochastic singular perturbation theory going back to Yu. Kabanov and Yu. Pergamentshchikov. This approach is used to regularize the above ill-posed problem, which, e.g., makes it possible to design stable numerical schemes. Several examples are provided in the presentation, which support the efficiency of the suggested analysis. The method can also be of interest in other fields of biomathematics, where differential equations contain switchings, e.g., in neural field models.

Keywords: ill-posed problems, singular perturbation analysis, stochastic differential equations, switching nonlinearities

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9527 Low Cost Inertial Sensors Modeling Using Allan Variance

Authors: A. A. Hussen, I. N. Jleta

Abstract:

Micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) accelerometers and gyroscopes are suitable for the inertial navigation system (INS) of many applications due to the low price, small dimensions and light weight. The main disadvantage in a comparison with classic sensors is a worse long term stability. The estimation accuracy is mostly affected by the time-dependent growth of inertial sensor errors, especially the stochastic errors. In order to eliminate negative effect of these random errors, they must be accurately modeled. Where the key is the successful implementation that depends on how well the noise statistics of the inertial sensors is selected. In this paper, the Allan variance technique will be used in modeling the stochastic errors of the inertial sensors. By performing a simple operation on the entire length of data, a characteristic curve is obtained whose inspection provides a systematic characterization of various random errors contained in the inertial-sensor output data.

Keywords: Allan variance, accelerometer, gyroscope, stochastic errors

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