Search results for: decision based artificial neural network

Authors: S. Adjiri-Bailiche, S. M. Boudia, H. Daaou, S. Hadouche, A. Benzaoui

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In this work the study of changes in the wind speed depending on the altitude is calculated and described by the model of the neural networks, the use of measured data, the speed and direction of wind, temperature and the humidity at 10 m are used as input data and as data targets at 50m above sea level. Comparing predict wind speeds and extrapolated at 50 m above sea level is performed. The results show that the prediction by the method of artificial neural networks is very accurate.

Keywords: MATLAB, neural network, power low, vertical extrapolation, wind energy, wind speed

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Authors: Dimitrios Triantakonstantis, Demetris Stathakis

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Urban areas have been expanded throughout the globe. Monitoring and modeling urban growth have become a necessity for a sustainable urban planning and decision making. Urban prediction models are important tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of urban land use dynamics. The objective of this research paper is to analyze and model the urban change, which has been occurred from 1990 to 2000 using CORINE land cover maps. The model was developed using drivers of urban changes (such as road distance, slope, etc.) under an Artificial Neural Network modeling approach. Validation was achieved using a prediction map for 2006 which was compared with a real map of Urban Atlas of 2006. The accuracy produced a Kappa index of agreement of 0,639 and a value of Cramer's V of 0,648. These encouraging results indicate the importance of the developed urban growth prediction model which using a set of available common biophysical drivers could serve as a management tool for the assessment of urban change.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, CORINE, urban atlas, urban growth prediction

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Authors: Samuel Nii Tackie, Oyebade K. Oyedotun, Ebenezer O. Olaniyi, Adnan Khashman

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Artificial neural networks have been used in different fields of artificial intelligence, and more specifically in machine learning. Although, other machine learning options are feasible in most situations, but the ease with which neural networks lend themselves to different problems which include pattern recognition, image compression, classification, computer vision, regression etc. has earned it a remarkable place in the machine learning field. This research exploits neural networks as a data mining tool in predicting the number of times a student repeats a course, considering some attributes relating to the course itself, the teacher, and the particular student. Neural networks were used in this work to map the relationship between some attributes related to students’ course assessment and the number of times a student will possibly repeat a course before he passes. It is the hope that the possibility to predict students’ performance from such complex relationships can help facilitate the fine-tuning of academic systems and policies implemented in learning environments. To validate the power of neural networks in data mining, Turkish students’ performance database has been used; feedforward and radial basis function networks were trained for this task; and the performances obtained from these networks evaluated in consideration of achieved recognition rates and training time.

Keywords: artificial neural network, data mining, classification, students’ evaluation

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Authors: Endri Rama, Genci Capi, Shigenori Kawahara

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The mobile robot ability to navigate autonomously in its environment is very important. Even though the advances in technology, robot self-localization and goal directed navigation in complex environments are still challenging tasks. In this article, we propose a novel method for robot navigation based on rat’s brain signals (Local Field Potentials). It has been well known that rats accurately and rapidly navigate in a complex space by localizing themselves in reference to the surrounding environmental cues. As the first step to incorporate the rat’s navigation strategy into the robot control, we analyzed the rats’ strategies while it navigates in a multiple Y-maze, and recorded Local Field Potentials (LFPs) simultaneously from three brain regions. Next, we processed the LFPs, and the extracted features were used as an input in the artificial neural network to predict the rat’s next location, especially in the decision-making moment, in Y-junctions. We developed an algorithm by which the robot learned to imitate the rat’s decision-making by mapping the rat’s brain signals into its own actions. Finally, the robot learned to integrate the internal states as well as external sensors in order to localize and navigate in the complex environment.

Keywords: brain-machine interface, decision-making, mobile robot, neural network

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Authors: D. G. Badagha, C. D. Modhera, S. A. Vasanwala

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There is a great challenge for civil engineering field to contribute in environment prevention by finding out alternatives of cement and natural aggregates. There is a problem of global warming due to cement utilization in concrete, so it is necessary to give sustainable solution to produce concrete containing waste. It is very difficult to produce designated grade of concrete containing different ingredient and water cement ratio including waste to achieve desired fresh and harden properties of concrete as per requirement and specifications. To achieve the desired grade of concrete, a number of trials have to be taken, and then after evaluating the different parameters at long time performance, the concrete can be finalized to use for different purposes. This research work is carried out to solve the problem of time, cost and serviceability in the field of construction. In this research work, artificial neural network introduced to fix proportion of concrete ingredient with 50% waste replacement for M20, M25, M30, M35, M40, M45, M50, M55 and M60 grades of concrete. By using the neural network, mix design of high performance concrete was finalized, and the main basic mechanical properties were predicted at 3 days, 7 days and 28 days. The predicted strength was compared with the actual experimental mix design and concrete cube strength after 3 days, 7 days and 28 days. This experimentally and neural network based mix design can be used practically in field to give cost effective, time saving, feasible and sustainable high performance concrete for different types of structures.

Keywords: artificial neural network, high performance concrete, rebound hammer, strength prediction

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Authors: Sukhbir Singh

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This paper describes the modeling of novel solar air collector (NSAC) system by using artificial neural network (ANN) model. The objective of the study is to demonstrate the application of the ANN model to predict the performance of the NSAC with acetamide as a phase change material (PCM) storage. Input data set consist of time, solar intensity and ambient temperature wherever as outlet air temperature of NSAC was considered as output. Experiments were conducted between 9.00 and 24.00 h in June and July 2014 underneath the prevailing atmospheric condition of Kurukshetra (city of the India). After that, experimental results were utilized to train the back propagation neural network (BPNN) to predict the outlet air temperature of NSAC. The results of proposed algorithm show that the BPNN is effective tool for the prediction of responses. The BPNN predicted results are 99% in agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: Evacuated tube solar air collector, Artificial neural network, Phase change material, solar air collector

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Authors: Tsu-Wang Shen, Shan-Chun Chang, Chih-Hsien Wang, Te-Chao Fang

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For electrocardiogram (ECG) biometrics system, it is a tedious process to pre-install user’s high-intensity heart rate (HR) templates in ECG biometric systems. Based on only resting enrollment templates, it is a challenge to identify human by using ECG with the high-intensity HR caused from exercises and stress. This research provides a heartbeat segment method with slope-oriented neural networks against the ECG morphology changes due to high intensity HRs. The method has overall system accuracy at 97.73% which includes six levels of HR intensities. A cumulative match characteristic curve is also used to compare with other traditional ECG biometric methods.

Keywords: high-intensity heart rate, heart rate resistant, ECG human identification, decision based artificial neural network

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Authors: P. Singh, R. M. Banik

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Artificial neural network (ANN) was employed to optimize assay parameters viz., time, temperature, pH of reaction mixture, enzyme volume and substrate concentration of L-glutaminase from Bacillus cereus MTCC 1305. ANN model showed high value of coefficient of determination (0.9999), low value of root mean square error (0.6697) and low value of absolute average deviation. A multilayer perceptron neural network trained with an error back-propagation algorithm was incorporated for developing a predictive model and its topology was obtained as 5-3-1 after applying Levenberg Marquardt (LM) training algorithm. The predicted activity of L-glutaminase was obtained as 633.7349 U/l by considering optimum assay parameters, viz., pH of reaction mixture (7.5), reaction time (20 minutes), incubation temperature (35˚C), substrate concentration (40mM), and enzyme volume (0.5ml). The predicted data was verified by running experiment at simulated optimum assay condition and activity was obtained as 634.00 U/l. The application of ANN model for optimization of assay conditions improved the activity of L-glutaminase by 1.499 fold.

Keywords: Bacillus cereus, L-glutaminase, assay parameters, artificial neural network

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Authors: Koray U. Erbas

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Neural networks are appealing for many applications since they are able to learn complex non-linear relationships between input and output data. As the number of neurons and layers in a neural network increase, it is possible to represent more complex relationships with automatically extracted features. Nowadays Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are widely used in Computer Vision problems such as; classification, object detection, segmentation image editing etc. In this work, Facial Emotion Recognition task is performed by proposed Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based DNN architecture using FER2013 Dataset. Moreover, the effects of different hyperparameters (activation function, kernel size, initializer, batch size and network size) are investigated and ablation study results for Pooling Layer, Dropout and Batch Normalization are presented.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, deep learning, deep learning based FER, facial emotion recognition

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Authors: José Luis Carrillo-Medina, Roberto Latorre

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Experimental evidence has revealed that different living neural systems can sign their output signals with some specific neural signature. Although experimental and modeling results suggest that neural signatures can have an important role in the activity of neural networks in order to identify the source of the information or to contextualize a message, the functional meaning of these neural fingerprints is still unclear. The existence of cellular mechanisms to identify the origin of individual neural signals can be a powerful information processing strategy for the nervous system. We have recently built different models to study the ability of a neural network to process information based on the emission and recognition of specific neural fingerprints. In this paper we further analyze the features that can influence on the information processing ability of this kind of networks. In particular, we focus on the role that the duration of a refractory period in each neuron after emitting a signed message can play in the network collective dynamics.

Keywords: neural signature, neural fingerprint, processing based on signal identification, self-organizing neural network

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Authors: Khader S. Al-Aidmat, Venus W. Samawi

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Blurred vision in the misty atmosphere is essential problem which needs to be resolved. To solve this problem, we developed a technique to restore foggy degraded image from its original version using Back-propagation neural network (BP-NN). The suggested technique is based on mapping between foggy scene and its corresponding original scene. Seven different approaches are suggested based on type of features used in image restoration. Features are extracted from spatial and spatial-frequency domain (using DCT). Each of these approaches comes with its own BP-NN architecture depending on type and number of used features. The weight matrix resulted from training each BP-NN represents a fog filter. The performance of these filters are evaluated empirically (using PSNR), and perceptually. By comparing the performance of these filters, the effective features that suits BP-NN technique for restoring foggy images is recognized. This system proved its effectiveness and success in restoring moderate foggy images.

Keywords: artificial neural network, discrete cosine transform, feed forward neural network, foggy image restoration

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Authors: Javier Fernandez De Canete, Alvaro Fernandez-Quintero

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Nowadays, adaptive control schemes are being used when model based control schemes are applied in presence of uncertainty and model mismatches. Artificial neural networks have been employed both in modelling and control of non-linear dynamic systems with unknown dynamics. In fact, these are powerful tools to solve this control problem when only input-output operational data are available. A neural network controller under SIMULINK together with the ARDUINO hardware platform has been used to perform real-time speed control of a computer case fan. Comparison of performance with a PID controller has also been presented in order to show the efficacy of neural control under different command signals tracking and also when disturbance signals are present in the speed control loops.

Keywords: neural networks, ARDUINO platform, SIMULINK, adaptive speed control

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Authors: Go Woon Kwak, Siyoung Jun, Soyun Maeng, Haeyoung Lee

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Entry is an education platform used in South Korea, created to help students learn to program, in which they can learn to code while playing. Using the online version of the entry, teachers can easily assign programming homework to the student and the students can make programs simply by linking programming blocks. However, the programs may be made by others, so that the authors of the programs should be identified. In this paper, as the first step toward author identification of entry programs, we present an artificial neural network based classification approach to identify genders of authors of a program written in an entry. A neural network has been trained from labeled training data that we have collected. Our result in progress, although preliminary, shows that the proposed approach could be feasible to be applied to the online version of entry for gender identification of authors. As future work, we will first use a machine learning technique for age identification of entry programs, which would be the second step toward the author identification.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, author identification, deep neural network, gender identification, machine learning

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Authors: Lea Lenhardt, Ivana Zeković, Tatjana Dramićanin, Miroslav D. Dramićanin

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Fluorescence spectroscopy coupled with parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) and artificial neural networks (ANN) were used for characterization and classification of honey. Excitation emission spectra were obtained for 95 honey samples of different botanical origin (acacia, sunflower, linden, meadow, and fake honey) by recording emission from 270 to 640 nm with excitation in the range of 240-500 nm. Fluorescence spectra were described with a six-component PARAFAC model, and PARAFAC scores were further processed with two types of ANN’s (feed-forward network and self-organizing maps) to obtain algorithms for classification of honey on the basis of their botanical origin. Both ANN’s detected fake honey samples with 100% sensitivity and specificity.

Keywords: honey, fluorescence, PARAFAC, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Neil Erick Q. Madariaga, Noel B. Linsangan

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Body Mass Index (BMI) is one of the different ways to monitor the health of a person. It is based on the height and weight of the person. This study aims to compute for the BMI using an Android tablet by obtaining the height of the person by using a camera and measuring the weight of the person by using a weighing scale or load cell. The height of the person was estimated by applying background subtraction to the image captured and applying different processes such as getting the vanishing point and applying Artificial Neural Network. The weight was measured by using Wheatstone bridge load cell configuration and sending the value to the computer by using Gizduino microcontroller and Bluetooth technology after the amplification using AD620 instrumentation amplifier. The application will process the images and read the measured values and show the BMI of the person. The study met all the objectives needed and further studies will be needed to improve the design project.

Keywords: body mass index, artificial neural network, vanishing point, bluetooth, wheatstone bridge load cell

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Authors: Waleed A. Basuliman, Khalid S. AlSaleh, Mohamed Z. Ramadan

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Applying the anthropometric dimensions is considered one of the important factors when designing any human-machine system. In this study, the estimation of anthropometric dimensions has been improved by developing artificial neural network that aims to predict the anthropometric measurements of the male in Saudi Arabia. A total of 1427 Saudi males from age 6 to 60 participated in measuring twenty anthropometric dimensions. These anthropometric measurements are important for designing the majority of work and life applications in Saudi Arabia. The data were collected during 8 months from different locations in Riyadh City. Five of these dimensions were used as predictors variables (inputs) of the model, and the remaining fifteen dimensions were set to be the measured variables (outcomes). The hidden layers have been varied during the structuring stage, and the best performance was achieved with the network structure 6-25-15. The results showed that the developed Neural Network model was significantly able to predict the body dimensions for the population of Saudi Arabia. The network mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were found 0.0348 and 3.225 respectively. The accuracy of the developed neural network was evaluated by compare the predicted outcomes with a multiple regression model. The ANN model performed better and resulted excellent correlation coefficients between the predicted and actual dimensions.

Keywords: artificial neural network, anthropometric measurements, backpropagation, real anthropometric database

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Authors: Oluwaponmile David Alao

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Misdiagnosis has been the major problem in health sector. Heart attack has been one of diseases that have high level of misdiagnosis recorded on the part of physicians. In this paper, an intelligent system has been developed for diagnosis of heart attack in the health sector. Dataset of heart attack obtained from UCI repository has been used. This dataset is made up of thirteen attributes which are very vital in diagnosis of heart disease. The system is developed on the multilayer perceptron trained with back propagation neural network then simulated with feed forward neural network and a recognition rate of 87% was obtained which is a good result for diagnosis of heart attack in medical field.

Keywords: heart attack, artificial neural network, diagnosis, intelligent system

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Authors: Dalia Rimawi, Walid Salameh, Amal Al-Omari, Hadeel AbdelKhaleq

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Predication of Survival time of patients with cancer, is a core factor that influences oncologist decisions in different aspects; such as offered treatment plans, patients’ quality of life and medications development. For a long time proportional hazards Cox regression (ph. Cox) was and still the most well-known statistical method to predict survival outcome. But due to the revolution of data sciences; new predication models were employed and proved to be more flexible and provided higher accuracy in that type of studies. Artificial neural network is one of those models that is suitable to handle time to event predication. In this study we aim to compare ph Cox regression with artificial neural network method according to data handling and Accuracy of each model.

Keywords: Cox regression, neural networks, survival, cancer.

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Authors: Xiaohan Bookman, Xiaoyan Zhu

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Margin-Based Principle has been proposed for a long time, it has been proved that this principle could reduce the structural risk and improve the performance in both theoretical and practical aspects. Meanwhile, feed-forward neural network is a traditional classifier, which is very hot at present with a deeper architecture. However, the training algorithm of feed-forward neural network is developed and generated from Widrow-Hoff Principle that means to minimize the squared error. In this paper, we propose a new training algorithm for feed-forward neural networks based on Margin-Based Principle, which could effectively promote the accuracy and generalization ability of neural network classifiers with less labeled samples and flexible network. We have conducted experiments on four UCI open data sets and achieved good results as expected. In conclusion, our model could handle more sparse labeled and more high-dimension data set in a high accuracy while modification from old ANN method to our method is easy and almost free of work.

Keywords: Max-Margin Principle, Feed-Forward Neural Network, classifier, structural risk

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Authors: Safayat Ali Shaikh

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Software has been developed for optimal cropping pattern in an irrigation project considering land constraint, water availability constraint and pick up flow constraint using modified Simplex Algorithm. Artificial Neural Network Models (ANN) have been developed to predict rainfall. AR (1) model used to generate 1000 years rainfall data to train the ANN. Simulation has been done with expected rainfall data. Eight number crops and three types of soil class have been considered for optimization model. Area under each crop and each soil class have been quantified using Modified Simplex Algorithm to get optimum net return. Efficacy of the software has been tested using data of large irrigation project in India.

Keywords: artificial neural network, large irrigation project, modified simplex algorithm, optimal cropping pattern

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Authors: Raquel M. De sousa, Sofiane Labidi, Allan Kardec D. Barros, Alex O. Barradas Filho, Aldalea L. B. Marques

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Several parameters are established in order to measure biodiesel quality. One of them is the iodine value, which is an important parameter that measures the total unsaturation within a mixture of fatty acids. Limitation of unsaturated fatty acids is necessary since warming of a higher quantity of these ones ends in either formation of deposits inside the motor or damage of lubricant. Determination of iodine value by official procedure tends to be very laborious, with high costs and toxicity of the reagents, this study uses an artificial neural network (ANN) in order to predict the iodine value property as an alternative to these problems. The methodology of development of networks used 13 esters of fatty acids in the input with convergence algorithms of backpropagation type were optimized in order to get an architecture of prediction of iodine value. This study allowed us to demonstrate the neural networks’ ability to learn the correlation between biodiesel quality properties, in this case iodine value, and the molecular structures that make it up. The model developed in the study reached a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.99 for both network validation and network simulation, with Levenberg-Maquardt algorithm.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, biodiesel, iodine value, prediction

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Authors: Cedric Leong, Parth Desai, Parth Patel

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The purpose of this project was to develop a neural network based on qualitative team data to predict alliance scores to determine winners of matches in the FIRST Robotics Competition (FRC). The game for the competition changes every year with different objectives and game objects, however the idea was to create a prediction system which can be reused year by year using some of the statistics that are constant through different games, making our system adaptable to future games as well. Aerial Assist is the FRC game for 2014, and is played in alliances of 3 teams going against one another, namely the Red and Blue alliances. This application takes any 6 teams paired into 2 alliances of 3 teams and generates the prediction for the final score between them.

Keywords: artifical neural network, prediction system, qualitative team data, FIRST Robotics Competition (FRC)

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Authors: Svitov David, Alyamkin Sergey

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The usage of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in conjunction with the margin-based softmax approach demonstrates the state-of-the-art performance for the face recognition problem. Recently, lightweight neural network models trained with the margin-based softmax have been introduced for the face identification task for edge devices. In this paper, we propose a distillation method for lightweight neural network architectures that outperforms other known methods for the face recognition task on LFW, AgeDB-30 and Megaface datasets. The idea of the proposed method is to use class centers from the teacher network for the student network. Then the student network is trained to get the same angles between the class centers and face embeddings predicted by the teacher network.

Keywords: ArcFace, distillation, face recognition, margin-based softmax

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Authors: Ali Isapour, Ramin Nateghi

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— Markov parameters are unique parameters of the system and remain unchanged under similarity transformations. Markov parameters from a power series that is convergent only if the system matrix’s eigenvalues are inside the unity circle. Therefore, Markov parameters of a stable discrete-time system are convergent. In this study, we aim to realize the system based on Markov parameters by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and this end, we use Flexible Neural Networks. Realization means determining the elements of matrices A, B, C, and D.

Keywords: Markov parameters, realization, activation function, flexible neural network

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Authors: Danilo López, Johana Hernández, Edwin Rivas

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The use of the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLPNN) technique is presented to estimate the future state of use of a licensed channel by primary users (PUs); this will be useful at the spectral decision stage in cognitive radio networks (CRN) to determine approximately in which time instants of future may secondary users (SUs) opportunistically use the spectral bandwidth to send data through the primary wireless network. To validate the results, sequences of occupancy data of channel were generated by simulation. The results show that the prediction percentage is greater than 60% in some of the tests carried out.

Keywords: cognitive radio, neural network, prediction, primary user

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Authors: Rania Jradi, Christophe Marvillet, Mohamed Razak Jeday

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One of the most frequently encountered problems in industrial heat exchangers is fouling, which degrades the thermal and hydraulic performances of these types of equipment, leading thus to failure if undetected. And it occurs due to the accumulation of undesired material on the heat transfer surface. So, it is necessary to know about the heat exchanger fouling dynamics to plan mitigation strategies, ensuring a sustainable and safe operation. This paper proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to estimate the fouling resistance in a cross-flow heat exchanger by the collection of the operating data of the phosphoric acid concentration loop. The operating data of 361 was used to validate the proposed model. The ANN attains AARD= 0.048%, MSE= 1.811x10⁻¹¹, RMSE= 4.256x 10⁻⁶ and r²=99.5 % of accuracy which confirms that it is a credible and valuable approach for industrialists and technologists who are faced with the drawbacks of fouling in heat exchangers.

Keywords: cross-flow heat exchanger, fouling, estimation, phosphoric acid concentration loop, artificial neural network approach

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Authors: Oluwaponmile David Alao

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Due to an increase in the death rate as a result of heart attack. There is need to develop a system that can be useful in the diagnosis of the disease at the medical centre. This system will help in preventing misdiagnosis that may occur from the medical practitioner or the physicians. In this research work, heart disease dataset obtained from UCI repository has been used to develop an intelligent prediction diagnosis system. The system is modeled on a feedforwad neural network and trained with back propagation neural network. A recognition rate of 86% is obtained from the testing of the network.

Keywords: heart disease, artificial neural network, diagnosis, prediction system

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Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

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Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to preventing deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network.

Keywords: accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, k-mean, road safety

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Authors: Seunghee Park, Junkyeong Kim, Eun-Seok Shin, Sang-Hun Han

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In this study, two kinds of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques (rebound hardness and ultrasonic pulse velocity methods) are investigated for the effective maintenance of underwater concrete structures. A new methodology to estimate the underwater concrete strengths more effectively, named “artificial neural network (ANN) – based concrete strength estimation with the combination of rebound hardness and ultrasonic pulse velocity methods” is proposed and verified throughout a series of experimental works.

Keywords: underwater concrete, rebound hardness, Schmidt hammer, ultrasonic pulse velocity, ultrasonic sensor, artificial neural networks, ANN

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Authors: Riznaldi Akbar

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In this study, we compared the performance of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with back-propagation algorithm in correctly predicting in-sample and out-of-sample external debt crisis in Indonesia. We found that exchange rate, foreign reserves, and exports are the major determinants to experiencing external debt crisis. The ANN in-sample performance provides relatively superior results. The ANN model is able to classify correctly crisis of 89.12 per cent with reasonably low false alarms of 7.01 per cent. In out-of-sample, the prediction performance fairly deteriorates compared to their in-sample performances. It could be explained as the ANN model tends to over-fit the data in the in-sample, but it could not fit the out-of-sample very well. The 10-fold cross-validation has been used to improve the out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results also offer policy implications. The out-of-sample performance could be very sensitive to the size of the samples, as it could yield a higher total misclassification error and lower prediction accuracy. The ANN model could be used to identify past crisis episodes with some accuracy, but predicting crisis outside the estimation sample is much more challenging because of the presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: debt crisis, external debt, artificial neural network, ANN

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