Search results for: computational fluid dynamics.

Authors: Szymon Kuczynski

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Poland is characterized by the presence of numerous sedimentary basins and hydrocarbon provinces. Since 2006 exploration for hydrocarbons in Poland become gradually more focus on new unconventional targets, particularly on the shale gas potential of the Upper Ordovician and Lower Silurian in the Baltic-Podlasie-Lublin Basin. The first forecast prepared by US Energy Information Administration in 2011 indicated to 5.3 Tcm of natural gas. In 2012, Polish Geological Institute presented its own forecast which estimated maximum reserves on 1.92 Tcm. The difference in the estimates was caused by problems with calculations of the initial amount of adsorbed, as well as free, gas trapped in shale rocks (GIIP - Gas Initially in Place). This value is dependent from sorption capacity, gas saturation and mutual interactions between gas, water, and rock. Determination of the reservoir type in the initial exploration phase brings essential knowledge, which has an impact on decisions related to the production. The study of porosity impact for phase envelope shift eliminates errors and improves production profitability. Confinement phenomenon affects flow characteristics, fluid properties, and phase equilibrium. The thermodynamic behavior of confined fluids in porous media is subject to the basic considerations for industrial applications such as hydrocarbons production. In particular the knowledge of the phase equilibrium and the critical properties of the contained fluid is essential for the design and optimization of such process. In pores with a small diameter (nanopores), the effect of the wall interaction with the fluid particles becomes significant and occurs in shale formations. Nano pore size is similar to the fluid particles’ diameter and the area of particles which flow without interaction with pore wall is almost equal to the area where this phenomenon occurs. The molecular simulation studies have shown an effect of confinement to the pseudo critical properties. Therefore, the critical parameters pressure and temperature and the flow characteristics of hydrocarbons in terms of nano-scale are under the strong influence of fluid particles with the pore wall. It can be concluded that the impact of a single pore size is crucial when it comes to the nanoscale because there is possible the above-described effect. Nano- porosity makes it difficult to predict the flow of reservoir fluid. Research are conducted to explain the mechanisms of fluid flow in the nanopores and gas extraction from porous media by desorption.

Keywords: adsorption, capillary condensation, phase envelope, nanopores, unconventional natural gas

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Authors: Henrique C. C. Andrade, Ana Beatriz C. G. Silva, Fernando Luiz B. Ribeiro, Samir Maghous, Jose Claudio F. Telles, Eduardo M. R. Fairbairn

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The present paper aims at developing a parallel computational model for numerical simulation of poromechanics analyses of heterogeneous reservoirs. In the context of macroscopic poroelastoplasticity, the hydromechanical coupling between the skeleton deformation and the fluid pressure is addressed by means of two constitutive equations. The first state equation relates the stress to skeleton strain and pore pressure, while the second state equation relates the Lagrangian porosity change to skeleton volume strain and pore pressure. A specific algorithm for local plastic integration using a tangent operator is devised. A modified Cam-clay type yield surface with associated plastic flow rule is adopted to account for both contractive and dilative behavior.

Keywords: finite element method, poromechanics, poroplasticity, reservoir analysis

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Authors: Shagufta Tabassum

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The study of dielectric properties in a binary mixture of liquids is very useful to understand the liquid structure, molecular interaction, dynamics, and kinematics of the mixture. Time-domain reflectometry (TDR) is a powerful tool for studying the cooperation and molecular dynamics of the H-bonded system. In this paper, we discuss the basic calibration and normalization procedure for time-domain reflectometry measurements. Our approach is to explain the different types of error occur during TDR measurements and how these errors can be eliminated or minimized.

Keywords: time domain reflectometry measurement techinque, cable and connector loss, oscilloscope loss, and normalization technique

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Authors: Hasn Perera, Is Almeida, Hnk Perera, Mzf Mohammed, Ade Silva, H. Wijesinghe, Ajal Fernando

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Introduction: Dengue is a major Public Health burden of two clinical entities, Dengue Fever & Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF). The vast majority of dengue deaths occur in DHF patients, where the diagnosis hinges on the presence of fluid leakage. Limited Ultrasound Scans (USS) of chest and abdomen are used widely at Centre for Clinical Management of Dengue & Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (CCMDDHF), as the primary method for detecting fluid leaking in DHF. This study analyses the relationship between haematological and USS findings at the onset of leaking and to further determine the usefulness of ultrasound in diagnosing DHF. Methods: A prospective analysis of 80 serologically confirmed dengue patients initially admitted to a General Medical and Paediatric wards who were subsequently transferred to the CCMDDHF from March to September 2017 were analysed. In addition to repeated blood counts and capillary haematocrits’, serial USS were done to detect the onset fluid leaking by three competent and experienced doctors at CCMDDHF. Results: 80 patients (male: female: 38:42) with a mean age of 20 years (SD ±16.8, range 3-74) were evaluated. Dropping of platelet counts below 100,000 and haematocrit rise towards 20% started 4±1.3 day of fever with a mean platelet value of 69x103(range17-98x103). Gallbladder wall thickening was the commonest (98.7%) USS finding followed by fluid in hepato-renal pouch (95%), pelvic fluid (58.7%), right-sided pleural effusion (35%), bilateral effusions (7.5%). USS evidence of plasma leakage was detected in 11.25 %( n=9) of DHF cases from 1 day before significant haematocrit rise was noted. 35 (43.7%) patients with lowering platelets and haematocrit rise showed no objective evidence of plasma leaking on ultrasound scan. Conclusion: This outbreak underscores the importance of USS as a useful, sensitive and cost-effective tool for early diagnosis of suspected DHF cases, facilitating the tracking of progress of leaking and management of epidemics.

Keywords: dengue, ultrasound, plasma leaking, South Asia

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Authors: Freddy Munzhelele

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Setting: the empirical research has shown that the life cycle theory has an impact on the firms’ financing decisions, particularly the dividend pay-outs. Accordingly, the life cycle theory posits that as a firm matures, it gets to a level and capacity where it distributes more cash as dividends. On the other hand, the young firms prioritise investment opportunities sets and their financing; thus, they pay little or no dividends. The research on firms’ financing decisions also demonstrated, among others, the adoption of trade-off and pecking order theories on the dynamics of firms capital structure. The trade-off theory talks to firms holding a favourable position regarding debt structures particularly as to the cost and benefits thereof; and pecking order is concerned with firms preferring a hierarchical order as to choosing financing sources. The case of life cycle hypothesis explaining the financial managers’ decisions as regards the firms’ capital structure dynamics appears to be an interesting link, yet this link has been neglected in corporate finance research. If this link is to be explored as an empirical research, the financial decision-making alternatives will be enhanced immensely, since no conclusive evidence has been found yet as to the dynamics of capital structure. Aim: the aim of this study is to examine the impact of life cycle theory on the capital structure dynamics trade-off and pecking order theories of firms listed in retail, industrial and mining sectors of the JSE. These sectors are among the key contributors to the GDP in the South African economy. Design and methodology: following the postpositivist research paradigm, the study is quantitative in nature and utilises secondary data obtainable from the financial statements of sampled firm for the period 2010 – 2022. The firms’ financial statements will be extracted from the IRESS database. Since the data will be in panel form, a combination of the static and dynamic panel data estimators will used to analyse data. The overall data analyses will be done using STATA program. Value add: this study directly investigates the link between the life cycle theory and the dynamics of capital structure decisions, particularly the trade-off and pecking order theories.

Keywords: life cycle theory, trade-off theory, pecking order theory, capital structure, JSE listed firms

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Authors: Shreya Thusoo, Karan Modi, Ankit Kumar Jha, Rajesh Kumar

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Since the evolution of computational tools and simulation software, there has been considerable increase in research on Soil Structure Interaction (SSI) to decrease the computational time and increase accuracy in the results. To aid the designer with a proper understanding of the response of structure in different soil types, the presented paper compares the deformation, shear stress, acceleration and other parameters of multi-storey building for a specific input ground motion using Response-spectrum Analysis (RSA) method. The response of all the models of different heights have been compared in different soil types. Finite Element Simulation software, ANSYS, has been used for all the computational purposes. Overall, higher response is observed with SSI, while it increases with decreasing stiffness of soil.

Keywords: soil-structure interaction, response spectrum, analysis, finite element method, multi-storey buildings

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Authors: Yusuf Jundi Sado

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Changes in land use are mostly credited to human actions that result in negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functions. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of land use and land cover changes for sustainable natural resources planning and management. Chilalo-Galama Mountain Range, Ethiopia. This study used Thematic Mapper 05 (TM) for 1986, 2001 and Landsat 8 (OLI) data 2017. Additionally, data from the Central Statistics Agency on human population growth were analyzed. Semi-Automatic classification plugin (SCP) in QGIS 3.2.3 software was used for image classification. Global positioning system, field observations and focus group discussions were used for ground verification. Land Use Land Cover (LU/LC) change analysis was using maximum likelihood supervised classification and changes were calculated for the 1986–2001 and the 2001–2017 and 1986-2017 periods. The results show that agricultural land increased from 27.85% (1986) to 44.43% and 51.32% in 2001 and 2017, respectively with the overall accuracies of 92% (1986), 90.36% (2001), and 88% (2017). On the other hand, forests decreased from 8.51% (1986) to 7.64 (2001) and 4.46% (2017), and grassland decreased from 37.47% (1986) to 15.22%, and 15.01% in 2001 and 2017, respectively. It indicates for the years 1986–2017 the largest area cover gain of agricultural land was obtained from grassland. The matrix also shows that shrubland gained land from agricultural land, afro-alpine, and forest land. Population dynamics is found to be one of the major driving forces for the LU/LU changes in the study area.

Keywords: Landsat, LU/LC change, Semi-Automatic classification plugin, population dynamics, Ethiopia

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Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

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Model predictive control is a kind of optimal feedback control in which control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial time and a moving terminal time. This paper examines the stability of model predictive control for linear discrete-time systems with additive stochastic disturbances. A sufficient condition for the stability of the closed-loop system with model predictive control is derived by means of a linear matrix inequality. The objective of this paper is to show the results of computational simulations in order to verify the validity of the obtained stability condition.

Keywords: computational simulations, optimal control, predictive control, stochastic systems, discrete-time systems

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Authors: Benedictus Asriparusa, Lathifah Al Hakimi, Aulia Husada

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A large amount of energy is being wasted by the release of natural gas associated with the oil industry. This release interrupts the environment particularly atmosphere layer condition globally which contributes to global warming impact. This research presents an overview of the methods employed by researchers in PT. Chevron Pacific Indonesia in the Minas area to determine a new prediction method of measuring and reducing gas flaring and its emission. The method emphasizes advanced research which involved analytical studies, numerical studies, modeling, and computer simulations, amongst other techniques. A flaring system is the controlled burning of natural gas in the course of routine oil and gas production operations. This burning occurs at the end of a flare stack or boom. The combustion process releases emissions of greenhouse gases such as NO2, CO2, SO2, etc. This condition will affect the chemical composition of air and environment around the boundary layer mainly during transition season. Transition season in Indonesia is absolutely very difficult condition to predict its pattern caused by the difference of two air mass conditions. This paper research focused on transition season in 2013. A simulation to create the new pattern of the pollutants distribution is needed. This paper has outlines trends in gas flaring modeling and current developments to predict the dominant variables in the pollutants distribution. A Fluent model is used to simulate the distribution of pollutants gas coming out of the stack, whereas WRF model output is used to overcome the limitations of the analysis of meteorological data and atmospheric conditions in the study area. Based on the running model, the most influence factor was wind speed. The goal of the simulation is to predict the new pattern based on the time of fastest wind and slowest wind occurs for pollutants distribution. According to the simulation results, it can be seen that the fastest wind (last of March) moves pollutants in a horizontal direction and the slowest wind (middle of May) moves pollutants vertically. Besides, the design of flare stack in compliance according to EPA Oil and Gas Facility Stack Parameters likely shows pollutants concentration remains on the under threshold NAAQS (National Ambient Air Quality Standards).

Keywords: flare motion, new prediction, pollutants distribution, transition season, WRF model

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Authors: Mutaz Dwairy

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Solid tumors have high interstitial fluid pressure (IFP), high mechanical stress, and low oxygen levels. Solid stresses may induce apoptosis, stimulate the invasiveness and metastasis of cancer cells, and lower their proliferation rate, while oxygen concentration may affect the response of cancer cells to treatment. Although tumors grow in a nonhomogeneous environment, many existing theoretical models assume homogeneous growth and tissue has uniform mechanical properties. For example, the brain consists of three primary materials: white matter, gray matter, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Therefore, tissue inhomogeneity should be considered in the analysis. This study established a physical model based on convection-diffusion equations and continuum mechanics principles. The model considers the geometrical inhomogeneity of the brain by including the three different matters in the analysis: white matter, gray matter, and CSF. The model also considers fluid-solid interaction and explicitly describes the effect of mechanical factors, e.g., solid stresses and IFP, chemical factors, e.g., oxygen concentration, and biological factors, e.g., cancer cell concentration, on growing tumors. In this article, we applied the model on a brain tumor positioned within the white matter, considering the brain inhomogeneity to estimate solid stresses, IFP, the cancer cell concentration, oxygen concentration, and the deformation of the tissues within the neoplasm and the surrounding. Tumor size was estimated at different time points. This model might be clinically crucial for cancer detection and treatment planning by measuring mechanical stresses, IFP, and oxygen levels in the tissue.

Keywords: biomechanical model, interstitial fluid pressure, solid stress, tumor microenvironment

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Authors: N. K. Thakur

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A major proportion of the formations drilled for the production of hydrocarbons consists of clay containing shales. The petroleum industry has hugely investigated the role of clay minerals and their subsequent effect on wellbore stability during the drilling and production of hydrocarbons. It has been found that when the shale formation comes in contact with water-based drilling fluid, the interaction of clay minerals like montmorillonite with infiltrated water leads to hydration of the clay minerals, which causes shale swelling. When shale swelling proceeds further, it may lead to major drilling complications like caving, pipe sticking, which invariably influences wellbore stability, wellbore diameter, the mechanical strength of shale, stress distribution in the wellbore, etc. These problems ultimately lead to an increase in nonproductive time and additional costs during drilling. Several additives are used to prevent shale instability. Among the popular additives used for shale inhibition in drilling muds, ionic liquids and nanoparticles are emerging to be the best additives. The efficiency of the proposed additives will be studied and compared with conventional clay inhibitors like KCl. The main objective is to develop a highly efficient water-based mud for mitigating shale instability and reducing fluid loss which is environmentally friendly and does not alter the formation permeability. The use of nanoparticles has been exploited to enhance the rheological and fluid loss properties in water-based drilling fluid ionic liquid have attracted significant research interest due to its unique thermal stability. It is referred to as ‘green chemical’. The preliminary experimental studies performed are promising. The application of more effective mud additives is always desirable to make the drilling process techno-economically proficient.

Keywords: ionic liquid, shale inhibitor, wellbore stability, unconventional

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Authors: Md. Fazlul Karim, Ashik Sharfaraz, Aysha Ferdoushi

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Background: Computational medicinal chemistry approaches are used for designing and identifying new drug-like molecules, predicting properties and pharmacological activities, and optimizing lead compounds in drug development. SIRT7, a nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+)-dependent deacylase which regulates aging, is an emerging target for cancer therapy with mounting evidence that SIRT7 downregulation plays important roles in reversing cancer phenotypes and suppressing tumor growth. Activation or altered expression of SIRT7 is associated with the progression and invasion of various cancers, including liver, breast, gastric, prostate, and non-small cell lung cancer. Objectives: The goal of this work was to identify potent and selective bioactive candidate inhibitors of SIRT7 by in silico screening of small molecule compounds obtained from Nigella sativa (N. sativa). Methods: SIRT7 structure was retrieved from The Research Collaboratory for Structural Bioinformatics Protein Data Bank (RCSB PDB), and its active site was identified using CASTp and metaPocket. Molecular docking simulation was performed with PyRx 0.8 virtual screening software. Drug-likeness properties were tested using SwissADME and pkCSM. In silico toxicity was evaluated by Osiris Property Explorer. Bioactivity was predicted by Molinspiration software. Antitumor activity was screened for Prediction of Activity Spectra for Substances (PASS) using Way2Drug web server. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation was carried out by Desmond v3.6 package. Results: A total of 159 bioactive compounds from the N. Sativa were screened against the SIRT7 enzyme. Five bioactive compounds: chrysin (CID:5281607), pinocembrin (CID:68071), nigellidine (CID:136828302), nigellicine (CID:11402337), and epicatechin (CID:72276) were identified as potent SIRT7 anti-cancer candidates after docking score evaluation and applying Lipinski's Rule of Five. Finally, MD simulation identified Chrysin as the top SIRT7 anti-cancer candidate molecule. Conclusion: Chrysin, which shows a potential inhibitory effect against SIRT7, can act as a possible anti-cancer drug candidate. This inhibitor warrants further evaluation to check its pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics properties both in vitro and in vivo.

Keywords: SIRT7, antitumor, molecular docking, molecular dynamics simulation

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Authors: Maor Farid, Oleg Gendelman

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The following study deals with fluid vibration of a liquid in a partially filled vessel under periodic ground excitation. This external excitation might lead to hidraulic impact applied on the vessel inner walls. In order to model these sloshing dynamic regimes, several equivalent mechanical models were suggested in the literature, such as series of pendula or mass-spring systems that are able to impact the inner tank walls. In the following study, we use the latter methodology, use parameter values documented in literature corresponding to cylindrical tanks and consider structural elasticity of the tank. The hydraulic impulses are modeled by the high-exponent potential function. Additional system parameters are found with the help of Finite-Element (FE) analysis. Model-driven stress assessment method is developed. Finally, vibration mitigation performances of both tuned mass damper (TMD) and nonlinear energy sink (NES) are examined.

Keywords: nonlinear energy sink (NES), reduced-order modelling, liquid sloshing, vibration mitigation, vibro-impact dynamics

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Authors: Piotr J. Skusiewicz, Johnathan Saul, Ijhar Rusli, Svetlana Aleksandrova, Stephen. F. Benjamin, Miroslaw Gall, Steve Pierson, Carol A. Roberts

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The application of turbocharging in automotive engines leads to swirling flow entering the catalyst. The behaviour of this type of flow within the catalyst has yet to be adequately documented. This work discusses the effect of swirling flow on the flow distribution in automotive exhaust catalysts. Compressed air supplied to a moving-block swirl generator allowed for swirling flow with variable intensities to be generated. Swirl intensities were measured at the swirl generator outlet using single-sensor hot-wire probes. The swirling flow was fed into diffusers with total angles of 10°, 30° and 180°. Downstream of the diffusers, a wash-coated diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC) of length 143.8 mm, diameter 76.2 mm and nominal cell density of 400 cpsi was fitted. Velocity profiles were measured at the outlet sleeve about 30 mm downstream of the monolith outlet using single-sensor hot-wire probes. Wall static pressure was recorded using a multi-tube manometer connected to pressure taps positioned along the diffuser walls. The results show that as swirl is increased, more of the flow is directed towards the diffuser walls. The velocity decreases around the centre-line and maximum velocities are observed close to the outer radius of the monolith for all flow rates. At the maximum swirl intensity, reversed flow was recorded near the centre of the monolith. Wall static pressure measurements in the 180° diffuser indicated no pressure recovery as the flow enters the diffuser. This is indicative of flow separation at the inlet to the diffuser. To gain insight into the flow structure, CFD simulations have been performed for the 180° diffuser for a flow rate of 63 g/s. The geometry of the model consists of the complete assembly from the upstream swirl generator to the outlet sleeve. Modelling of the flow in the monolith was achieved using the porous medium approach, where the monolith with parallel flow channels is modelled as a porous medium that resists the flow. A reasonably good agreement was achieved between the experimental and CFD results downstream of the monolith. The CFD simulations allowed visualisation of the separation zones and central toroidal recirculation zones that occur within the expansion region at certain swirl intensities which are highlighted.

Keywords: catalyst, computational fluid dynamics, diffuser, hot-wire anemometry, swirling flow

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Authors: Sunita Gakkhar, Arti Mishra

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In this paper, a nonlinear host vector model has been proposed and analyzed for the two strain dengue dynamics incorporating ADE effect. The model considers that the asymptomatic infected people are more responsible for secondary infection than that of symptomatic ones and differentiates between them. The existence conditions are obtained for various equilibrium points. Basic reproduction number has been computed and analyzed to explore the effect of secondary infection enhancement parameter on dengue infection. Stability analyses of various equilibrium states have been performed. Numerical simulation has been done for the stability of endemic state.

Keywords: dengue, ade, stability, threshold, asymptomatic, infection

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Authors: M. Sumida, S. Morita

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In this research, the effect of unsteady flows acting on road vehicles was experimentally investigated, using an advanced and recently introduced wind tunnel. The aims of this study were to extract the characteristics of fluid forces acting on road vehicles under unsteady wind conditions and obtain new information on drag forces in a practical on-road test. We applied pulsating wind as a representative example of the atmospheric fluctuations that vehicles encounter on the road. That is, we considered the case where the vehicles are moving at constant speed in the air, with large wind oscillations. The experimental tests were performed on the Ahmed-type test model, which is a simplified vehicle model. This model was chosen because of its simplicity and the data accumulated under steady wind conditions. The experiments were carried out with a time-averaged Reynolds number of Re = 4.16x10⁵ and a pulsation period of T = 1.5 s, with amplitude of η = 0.235. Unsteady fluid forces of drag and lift were obtained utilizing a multi-component load cell. It was observed that the unsteady aerodynamic forces differ significantly from those under steady wind conditions. They exhibit a phase shift and an enhanced response to the wind oscillations. Furthermore, their behavior depends on the slant angle of the rear shape of the model.

Keywords: Ahmed body, automotive aerodynamics, unsteady wind, wind tunnel test

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Authors: Giulio Mangano, Alberto De Marco, Giovanni Zenezini

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The concept of City Logistics (CL) has emerged to improve the impacts of last mile freight distribution in urban areas. In this paper, a System Dynamics (SD) model exploring the dynamics of the diffusion of a ICT platform for CL management across different populations is proposed. For the development of the model two sources have been used. On the one hand, the major diffusion variables and feedback loops are derived from a literature review of existing diffusion models. On the other hand, the parameters are represented by the value propositions delivered by the platform as a response to some of the users’ needs. To extract the most important value propositions the Business Model Canvas approach has been used. Such approach in fact focuses on understanding how a company can create value for her target customers. These variables and parameters are thus translated into a SD diffusion model with three different populations namely municipalities, logistics service providers, and own account carriers. Results show that, the three populations under analysis fully adopt the platform within the simulation time frame, highlighting a strong demand by different stakeholders for CL projects aiming at carrying out more efficient urban logistics operations.

Keywords: city logistics, simulation, system dynamics, business model

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Authors: Lee Derk Huan, Nur Irmawati

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This paper aims to investigate the heat transfer and fluid flow characteristics of nanofluids used in spray cooling systems. The effect of spray height, type of nanofluids and concentration of nanofluids are numerically investigated. Five different nanofluids such as AgH2O, Al2O3, CuO, SiO2 and TiO2 with volume fraction range of 0.5% to 2.5% are used. The results revealed that the heat transfer performance decreases as spray height increases. It is found that TiO2 has the highest transfer coefficient among other nanofluids. In dilute spray conditions, low concentration of nanofluids is observed to be more effective in heat removal in a spray cooling system.

Keywords: numerical investigation, spray cooling, heat transfer, nanofluids

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Authors: Y. Yang, Dian Ming Xing, Qiu Hua Du

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Based on the Motorized Momentum Exchange Tether (MMET), with the principle of momentum exchange, the three dimension flexible dynamics of continuous cislunar payloads transferring system (CCPTS) is built by Lagrange method and its numerical solution is solved by Mathematica software. In the derivation precession of potential energy, this paper uses the Tylor expansion method to simplify the Lagrange equation. Furthermore, the tension coming from the centripetal load is considered in the elastic potential energy. The comparison simulation results between the 3D rigid model and 3D flexible model of CCPTS shows that the tether flexibility has important influence on CCPTS’s orbital parameters (such as radius of CCPTS’s COM and the true anomaly) and the tether’s rotational movement, the relative deviation of radius and the true anomaly between the two dynamic models is about 0.00678% and 0.00259%, the relative deviation of the angle of tether-span and local gravity gradient is about 3.55%. Additionally, the external torque has an apparent influence on the tether’s axial vibration.

Keywords: cislunar transfer, dynamics, momentum exchange, tether

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Authors: Janne Engblom, Elias Oikarinen

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The understanding of housing price dynamics is of importance to a great number of agents: to portfolio investors, banks, real estate brokers and construction companies as well as to policy makers and households. A panel dataset is one that follows a given sample of individuals over time, and thus provides multiple observations on each individual in the sample. Panel data models include a variety of fixed and random effects models which form a wide range of linear models. A special case of panel data models is dynamic in nature. A complication regarding a dynamic panel data model that includes the lagged dependent variable is endogeneity bias of estimates. Several approaches have been developed to account for this problem. In this paper, the panel models were estimated using the Common Correlated Effects estimator (CCE) of dynamic panel data which also accounts for cross-sectional dependence which is caused by common structures of the economy. In presence of cross-sectional dependence standard OLS gives biased estimates. In this study, U.S housing price dynamics were examined empirically using the dynamic CCE estimator with first-difference of housing price as the dependent and first-differences of per capita income, interest rate, housing stock and lagged price together with deviation of housing prices from their long-run equilibrium level as independents. These deviations were also estimated from the data. The aim of the analysis was to provide estimates with comparisons of estimates between 1980-1999 and 2000-2012. Based on data of 50 U.S cities over 1980-2012 differences of short-run housing price dynamics estimates were mostly significant when two time periods were compared. Significance tests of differences were provided by the model containing interaction terms of independents and time dummy variable. Residual analysis showed very low cross-sectional correlation of the model residuals compared with the standard OLS approach. This means a good fit of CCE estimator model. Estimates of the dynamic panel data model were in line with the theory of housing price dynamics. Results also suggest that dynamics of a housing market is evolving over time.

Keywords: dynamic model, panel data, cross-sectional dependence, interaction model

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Authors: Edip Kemal, Sheshov Vlatko, Bojadjieva Julijana, Bogdanovic ALeksandra, Gjorgjeska Irena

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The wave propagation phenomenon in porous domains is of great importance in the field of geotechnical earthquake engineering. In these kinds of problems, the elastic waves propagate from the interior to the exterior domain and require special treatment at the computational level since apart from displacement in the solid-state there is a p-wave that takes place in the pore water phase. In this paper, a study on the implementation of multiphase finite elements is presented. The proposed algorithm is implemented in the ANSYS finite element software and tested on one-dimensional wave propagation considering both pore pressure wave propagation and displacement fields. In the simulation of porous media such as soils, the behavior is governed largely by the interaction of the solid skeleton with water and/or air in the pores. Therefore, coupled problems of fluid flow and deformation of the solid skeleton are considered in a detailed way.

Keywords: wave propagation, multiphase model, numerical methods, finite element method

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Authors: Bin Liu

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Prokaryotic promoter, consisted of two short DNA sequences located at in -35 and -10 positions, is responsible for controlling the initiation and expression of gene expression. Different types of promoters have different functions, and their consensus sequences are similar. In addition, their consensus sequences may be different for the same type of promoter, which poses difficulties for promoter identification. Unfortunately, all existing computational methods treat promoter identification as a binary classification task and can only identify whether a query sequence belongs to a specific promoter type. It is desired to develop computational methods for effectively identifying promoters and their types. Here, a two-layer predictor is proposed to try to deal with the problem. The first layer is designed to predict whether a given sequence is a promoter and the second layer predicts the type of promoter that is judged as a promoter. Meanwhile, we also analyze the importance of feature and sequence conversation in two aspects: promoter identification and promoter type identification. To the best knowledge of ours, it is the first computational predictor to detect promoters and their types.

Keywords: promoter, promoter type, random forest, sequence information

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Authors: Xue Xiao, Sun Hao, Liu Donghua

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E-commerce is experiencing rapid development and evolution, but traditional research methods are difficult to fully demonstrate the relationship between micro factors and macro evolution in the development process of e-commerce, which cannot provide accurate assessment for the existing strategies and predict the future evolution trends. To solve these problems, this paper presents the concept of e-commerce service ecosystem based on the characteristics of e-commerce and business ecosystem theory, describes e-commerce environment as a complex adaptive system from the perspective of ecology, constructs a e-commerce service ecosystem model by using Agent-based modeling method and Java language in RePast simulation platform and conduct experiment through the way of computational experiment, attempt to provide a suitable and effective researching method for the research on e-commerce evolution. By two experiments, it can be found that system model built in this paper is able to show the evolution process of e-commerce service ecosystem and the relationship between micro factors and macro emergence. Therefore, the system model constructed by Agent-based method and computational experiment provides proper means to study the evolution of e-commerce ecosystem.

Keywords: e-commerce service ecosystem, complex system, agent-based modeling, computational experiment

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Authors: Xinyi Xu

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This study conducts a detailed examination of Asian stock markets over the period from 2008 to 2023, with a focus on the dynamics of cointegration and their relevance for long-term investment strategies. Specifically, we assess the co-movement and potential for pairs trading—a strategy where investors take opposing positions on two stocks, indices, or financial instruments that historically move together. For example, we explore the relationship between the Nikkei 225 (N225), Japan’s benchmark stock index, and the Straits Times Index (STI) of Singapore, as well as the relationship between the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KS11) and the STI. The methodology includes tests for normality, stationarity, cointegration, and the application of Vector Error Correction Modeling (VECM). Our findings reveal significant long-term relationships between these pairs, indicating opportunities for pairs trading strategies. Furthermore, the research underscores the challenges posed by model instability and the influence of major global incidents, which are identified as structural breaks. These findings pave the way for further exploration into the intricacies of financial market dynamics.

Keywords: normality tests, stationarity, cointegration, VECM, pairs trading

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Authors: Miroslava Marković, Renata Gagić, Serdar, Aleksandar Lučić, Ljubinko Rakonjac

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Forest dieback that comes in waves since the early 20th century has lately grown into an epidemic, in particular in oak stands. For this reason, research was conducted of the population dynamics of early oak defoliators, which represent a grave danger in oak stands due to their gradogenic attributes. The research was carried out over a 5-year period in oak forests in the area of forest administrations Kragujevac and Gornji Milanovac. The samples used in the research were collected from bottom branches, where Geometridae were found in the largest numbers, as well as from the mid and upper parts of the crowns, where other species were found. Population levels of these pests were presented in laboratory conditions on winter branch samples and in newly foliated stands on site, depending on the basic parameters of the climatic conditions. The greatest deviation of the population level of early oak defoliators was noted in 2018 on all 6 presented localities through the analysis of winter branches and the analysis of their presence in newly foliated stands on site, and it was followed by the highest average air temperature.

Keywords: defoliators, oak, population level, population dynamics

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Authors: Muleya Nqobile, Winston Garira

Abstract:

We presented a compartmental deterministic multi-scale model which encompass internal plant defensive mechanism and pathogen interaction, then we consider nesting the model into the epidemiological model. The objective was to improve our understanding of the transmission dynamics of within host and between host of Guignardia citricapa Kiely. The inflow of infected class was scaled down to individual level while the outflow was scaled up to average population level. Conceptual model and mathematical model were constructed to display a theoretical framework which can be used for predicting or identify disease pattern.

Keywords: epidemiological model, mathematical modelling, multi-scale modelling, immunological model

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Authors: Driss Kettani

Abstract:

In this paper, we shed light on “Digital Divide 2.0,” which we see as COVID-19’s Version of the Digital Divide! We believe that “Fighting” against Digital Divide 2.0 necessitates for a Country to be seriously advanced in the Global Digital Transformation that is, naturally, a complex, delicate, costly and long-term Process. We build an argument supporting our assumption and, from there, we present the foundations of a computational framework to guide and streamline Digital Transformation at all levels.

Keywords: digital divide 2.0, digital transformation, ICTs for development, computational outcomes assessment

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Authors: Yagya Sharma, Basanta K. Rana, Arup K. Das

Abstract:

Rotary entrainment is a phenomenon in which the interfaces of two immiscible fluids are subjected to external flux in the form of rotation. Present work reports the experimental study on rotary motion of a horizontal cylinder between the interface of air and water to observe the penetration of gas inside the liquid. Experiments have been performed to establish entrainment of air mass in water alongside the cylindrical surface. The movement of tracer and seeded particles have been tracked to calculate the speed and path of the entrained air inside water. Simplified particle image velocimetry technique has been used to trace the movement of particles/tracers at the moment they are injected inside the entrainment zone and suspended beads have been used to replicate the particle movement with respect to time in order to determine the flow dynamics of the fluid along the cylinder. Present paper establishes a thorough experimental analysis of the rotary entrainment phenomenon between air and water keeping in interest the extent to which we can intermix the two and also to study its entrainment trajectories.

Keywords: entrainment, gas-liquid flow, particle image velocimetry, stratified layer mixing

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Authors: Mohamed El-Sayed Mosaad

Abstract:

An analytic approach is obtained for the steady heat transfer problem of two fluid systems, in thermal communication via heat conduction across a solid wall separating them. The two free convection layers created on wall sides are assumed to be in parallel flow. Fluid-solid interface temperature on wall sides is not prescribed in analysis in advance; rather, determined from conjugate solution among other unknown parameters. The analysis highlights the main conjugation parameters controlling thermal interaction process of involved heat transfer modes. Heat transfer results of engineering importance are obtained.

Keywords: conjugate heat transfer, boundary layer, convection, thermal systems

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Authors: Anindita Sen

Abstract:

Oral fluid is a promising diagnostic matrix for drugs of abuse compared to urine and serum. Detection of methamphetamine in oral fluid would pave way for the easy evaluation of impairment in drivers during roadside drug testing as well as ensure safe working environments by facilitating evaluation of impairment in employees at workplaces. A membrane-based point-of-care (POC) friendly pre-treatment technique has been developed which aided elimination of interferences caused by salivary proteins and facilitated the demonstration of methamphetamine detection in saliva using a gold nanoparticle based colorimetric aptasensor platform. It was found that the colorimetric response in saliva was always suppressed owing to the matrix effects. By navigating the challenging interfering issues in saliva, we were successfully able to detect methamphetamine at nanomolar levels in saliva offering immense promise for the translation of these platforms for on-site diagnostic systems. This subsequently motivated the development of a handheld portable light meter device that can reliably transduce the aptasensors colorimetric response into absorbance, facilitating quantitative detection of analyte concentrations on-site. This is crucial due to the prevalent unreliability and sensitivity problems of the conventional drug testing kits. The fabricated light meter device response was validated against a standard UV-Vis spectrometer to confirm reliability. The portable and cost-effective handheld detector device features sensitivity comparable to the well-established UV-Vis benchtop instrument and the easy-to-use device could potentially serve as a prototype for a commercial device in the future.

Keywords: aptasensors, colorimetric gold nanoparticle assay, point-of-care, oral fluid

Procedia PDF Downloads 59