Search results for: scoring based risk assessment method

Authors: Vladimir A. Todiras

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Spatio-temporal models provide new possibilities for real-time action in pest risk analysis. It should be noted that estimation of the possibility and probability of introduction of a pest and of its economic consequences involves many uncertainties. We present a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk using online BioClass software. BioClass is a GIS tool designed to solve multiple-criteria classification and optimization problems based on fuzzy logic and level set methods. This research describes a method for predicting the potential establishment and spread of a plant pest into new areas using a case study: corn rootworm (Diabrotica spp.), tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta) and plum fruit moth (Grapholita funebrana). Our study demonstrated that in BioClass we can combine fuzzy logic and geographic information systems with knowledge of pest biology and environmental data to derive new information for decision making. Pests are sensitive to a warming climate, as temperature greatly affects their survival and reproductive rate and capacity. Changes have been observed in the distribution, frequency and severity of outbreaks of Helicoverpa armigera on tomato. BioClass has demonstrated to be a powerful tool for applying dynamic models and map the potential future distribution of a species, enable resource to make decisions about dangerous and invasive species management and control.

Keywords: classification, model, pest, risk

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Authors: Ryan Villafuerte Lansangan

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Assessing students’ understanding in the microscopic level of an abstract subject like chemistry poses a challenge to teachers. Literature reveals that the use of representations serves as an essential avenue of measuring the extent of understanding in the discipline as an alternative to traditional assessment methods. This undertaking explored the representational competence profile of high school students from the University of Santo Tomas High School in understanding selected chemical principles and correlate this with their academic profile in chemistry based on their performance in the academic achievement examination in chemistry administered by the Center for Education Measurement (CEM). The common misconceptions of the students on the selected chemistry principles based on their representations were taken into consideration as well as the students’ views regarding their understanding of the role of chemical representations in their learning. The students’ level of representation task instrument consisting of the main lessons in chemistry with a corresponding scoring guide was prepared and utilized in the study. The study revealed that most of the students under study are unanimously rated as Level 2 (symbolic level) in terms of their representational competence in understanding the selected chemical principles through the use of chemical representations. Alternative misrepresentations were most observed on the students’ representations on chemical bonding concepts while the concept of chemical equation appeared to be the most comprehensible topic in chemistry for the students. Data implies that teachers’ representations play an important role in helping the student understand the concept in a microscopic level. Results also showed that the academic achievement in the chemistry of the students based on the standardized CEM examination has a significant association with the students’ representational competence. In addition, the students’ responses on the students’ views in chemical representations questionnaire evidently showed a good understanding of what a chemical representation or a mental model is by drawing a negative response that these tools should be an exact replica. Moreover, the students confirmed a greater appreciation that chemical representations are explanatory tools.

Keywords: chemical representations, representational competence, academic profile in chemistry, secondary students

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Authors: Alon Cohen, Jeffrey Kantor, Shalom Levy

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Technology adoption models are extensively used in the literature to explore drivers and inhibitors affecting the adoption of Computer Assisted Audit Techniques and Tools (CAATTs). Further studies from recent years suggested additional factors that may affect technology adoption by CPA firms. However, the adoption of CAATTs by financial auditors differs from the adoption of technologies in other industries. This is a result of the unique characteristics of the auditing process, which are expressed in the audit risk elements and the risk-based auditing approach, as encoded in the auditing standards. Since these audit risk factors are not part of the existing models that are used to explain technology adoption, these models do not fully correspond to the specific needs and requirements of the auditing domain. The overarching objective of this qualitative research is to fill the gap in the literature, which exists as a result of using generic technology adoption models. Followed by a pretest and based on semi-structured in-depth interviews with 16 Israeli CPA firms of different sizes, this study aims to reveal determinants related to audit risk factors that influence the adoption of CAATTs in audits and proposes a new modeling approach for the successful adoption of CAATTs. The findings emphasize several important aspects: (1) while large CPA firms developed their own inner guidelines to assess the audit risk components, other CPA firms do not follow a formal and validated methodology to evaluate these risks; (2) large firms incorporate a variety of CAATTs, including self-developed advanced tools. On the other hand, small and mid-sized CPA firms incorporate standard CAATTs and still need to catch up to better understand what CAATTs can offer and how they can contribute to the quality of the audit; (3) the top management of mid-sized and small CPA firms should be more proactive and updated about CAATTs capabilities and contributions to audits; and (4) All CPA firms consider professionalism as a major challenge that must be constantly managed to ensure an optimal CAATTs operation. The study extends the existing knowledge of CAATTs adoption by looking at it from a risk-based auditing approach. It suggests a new model for CAATTs adoption by incorporating influencing audit risk factors that auditors should examine when considering CAATTs adoption. Since the model can be used in various audited scenarios and supports strategic, risk-based decisions, it maximizes the great potential of CAATTs on the quality of the audits. The results and insights can be useful to CPA firms, internal auditors, CAATTs developers and regulators. Moreover, it may motivate audit standard-setters to issue updated guidelines regarding CAATTs adoption in audits.

Keywords: audit risk, CAATTs, financial auditing, information technology, technology adoption models

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Authors: Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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This paper will explore formation of HCl aerosol at atmospheric boundary layers and encourages the uptake of environmental modeling systems (EMSs) as a practice evaluation of gaseous emissions (“framework measures”) from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The conceptual model predicts greenhouse gas emissions to ecological points beyond landfill site operations. It focuses on incorporation traditional knowledge into baseline information for both measurement data and the mathematical results, regarding parameters influence model variable inputs. The paper has simplified parameters of aerosol processes based on the more complex aerosol process computations. The simple model can be implemented to both Gaussian and Eulerian rural dispersion models. Aerosol processes considered in this study were (i) the coagulation of particles, (ii) the condensation and evaporation of organic vapors, and (iii) dry deposition. The chemical transformation of gas-phase compounds is taken into account photochemical formulation with exposure effects according to HCl concentrations as starting point of risk assessment. The discussion set out distinctly aspect of sustainability in reflection inputs, outputs, and modes of impact on the environment. Thereby, models incorporate abiotic and biotic species to broaden the scope of integration for both quantification impact and assessment risks. The later environmental obligations suggest either a recommendation or a decision of what is a legislative should be achieved for mitigation measures of landfill gas (LFG) ultimately.

Keywords: air pollution, landfill emission, environmental management, monitoring/methods and impact assessment

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Authors: Alain Rousseau, Alfred Aragones, Gilles Rougier

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The study is based on lightning and surge standards mainly the EN series 62305 for facility protection, EN series 61643 for Low Voltage Surge Protective Devices, High Voltage surge arrester standard en 60099-4 and the traction arrester standards namely EN 50526-1 and 50526-1 dealing respectively with railway applications fixed installations D.C. surge arresters and voltage limiting devices. The more severe stress for tramways installations is caused by direct lightning on the catenary line. In such case, the surge current propagates towards the various poles and sparkover the insulators leading to a lower stress. If the impact point is near enough, a significant surge current will flow towards the traction surge arrester that is installed on the catenary at the location the substation is connected. Another surge arrester can be installed at the entrance of the substation or even inside the rectifier to avoid insulation damages. In addition, surge arresters can be installed between + and – to avoid damaging sensitive circuits. Based on disturbances encountered in a substation following a lighting event, the engineering department of RATP has decided to investigate the cause of such damage and more generally to question the efficiency of the various possible protection means. Based on the example of a recent tramway line the paper present the result of a lightning study based on direct lightning strikes. As a matter of fact, the induced surges on the catenary are much more frequent but much less damaging. First, a lightning risk assessment is performed for the substations that takes into account direct lightning and induced lightning both on the substation and its connected lines such as the catenary. Then the paper deals with efficiency of the various surge arresters is discussed based on field experience and calculations. The efficiency of the earthing system used at the bottom of the pole is also addressed based on high frequency earthing measurement. As a conclusion, the paper is making recommendations for an enhanced efficiency of existing protection means.

Keywords: surge arrester, traction, lightning, risk, surge protective device

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Authors: Ali Kassem

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Background: In the last few years, factors such as insulin resistance (IR) and hepatic steatosis have been linked to progression of hepatic fibrosis.Patients with chronic liver disease, and cirrhosis in particular, are known to be prone to IR. However, chronic HCV (hepatitis C) infection may induce IR, regardless of the presence of liver cirrhosis. Our aims are to study insulin resistance (IR) assessed by HOMA-IR (Homeostatic Model Assessment Insulin Resistance) as a possible risk factor in disease progression in cirrhotic patients and to evaluate the role of IR in hepatic fibrosis progression. The correlations of HOMA-IR values to laboratory, virological and histopathological parameters of chronic HCV are also examined. Methods: The study included 50 people divided into 30 adult chronic hepatitis C patients diagnosed by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) within previous 6 months and 20 healthy controls. The functional and morphological status of the liver were evaluated by ultrasonography and laboratory investigations including liver function tests and by liver biopsy. Fasting blood glucose and fasting insulin levels were measured and body mass index and insulin resistance were calculated. Patients having HOMA-IR >2.5 were labeled as insulin resistant. Results: Chronic hepatitis C patients with IR showed significantly higher mean values of BMI (body mass index) and fasting insulin than those without IR (P < 0.000). Patients with IR were more likely to have steatosis (p = 0.006), higher necroinflammatory activity (p = 0.05). No significant differences were found between the two groups regarding hepatic fibrosis. Conclusion: HOMA-IR measurement could represent a novel marker to identify the cirrhotic patients at greater risk for the progression of liver disease. As IR is a potentially modifiable risk factor, these findings may have important prognostic and therapeutic implications. Assessment of IR by HOMA-IR and improving insulin sensitivity are recommended in patients with HCV and related chronic liver disease.

Keywords: hepatic fibrosis, hepatitis C virus infection, hepatic steatosis, insulin resistance

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Authors: A. Bhatt, C. Bassi, H. Farragher, J. Musk

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Background: All medicines placed on the EU market are legally required to be accompanied by labeling and package leaflet, which provide comprehensive information, enabling its safe and appropriate use. Mock-ups with results of assessments using a target patient group must be submitted for a marketing authorisation application. Consumers need confidence in non-prescription, OTC medicines in order to manage their minor ailments and umbrella brands assist purchasing decisions by assisting easy identification within a particular therapeutic area. A number of regulatory agencies have risk management tools and guidelines to assist in developing umbrella brands for OTC medicines, however assessment and decision making is subjective and inconsistent. This study presents an evaluation in the UK following the US FDA warning concerning methaemoglobinaemia following 21 reported cases (11 children under 2 years) caused by OTC oral analgesics containing benzocaine. METHODS: A standard face to face, 25 structured task based user interview testing methodology using a standard questionnaire and rating scale in consumers aged 15-91 years, was conducted independently between June and October 2015 in their homes. Whether individuals could discriminate between the labelling, safety information and warnings on cartons and PILs between 3 different OTC medicines packs with the same umbrella name was evaluated. Each pack was presented with differing information hierarchy using, different coloured cartons, containing the 3 different active ingredients, benzocaine (oromucosal spray) and two lozenges containing 2, 4, dichlorobenzyl alcohol, amylmetacresol and hexylresorcinol respectively (for the symptomatic relief of sore throat pain). The test was designed to determine whether warnings on the carton and leaflet were prominent, accessible to alert users that one product contained benzocaine, risk of methaemoglobinaemia, and refer to the leaflet for the signs of the condition and what to do should this occur. Results: Two consumers did not locate the warnings on the side of the pack, eventually found them on the back and two suggestions to further improve accessibility of the methaemoglobinaemia warning. Using a gold pack design for the oromucosal spray, all consumers could differentiate between the 3 drugs, minimum age particulars, pharmaceutical form and the risk factor methaemoglobinaemia. The warnings for benzocaine were deemed to be clear or very clear; appearance of the 3 packs were either very well differentiated or quite well differentiated. The PIL test passed on all criteria. All consumers could use the product correctly, identify risk factors ensuring the critical information necessary for the safe use was legible and easily accessible so that confusion and errors were minimised. Conclusion: Patients with known methaemoglobinaemia are likely to be vigilant in checking for benzocaine containing products, despite similar umbrella brand names across a range of active ingredients. Despite these findings, the package design and spray format were not deemed to be sufficient to mitigate potential safety risks associated with differences in target populations and contraindications when submitted to the Regulatory Agency. Although risk management tools are increasingly being used by agencies to assist in providing objective assurance of package safety, further transparency, reduction in subjectivity and proportionate risk should be demonstrated.

Keywords: labelling, OTC, risk, user testing

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Authors: Akshay B. Pawar, Rohit Y. Parasnis

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Heart Rate Variability (HRV) is a widely used indicator of the regulation between the autonomic nervous system (ANS) and the cardiovascular system. Besides being non-invasive, it also has the potential to predict mortality in cases involving critical injuries. The gold standard method for determining HRV is based on the analysis of RR interval time series extracted from ECG signals. However, because it is much more convenient to obtain photoplethysmogramic (PPG) signals as compared to ECG signals (which require the attachment of several electrodes to the body), many researchers have used pulse cycle intervals instead of RR intervals to estimate HRV. They have also compared this method with the gold standard technique. Though most of their observations indicate a strong correlation between the two methods, recent studies show that in healthy subjects, except for a few parameters, the pulse-based method cannot be a surrogate for the standard RR interval- based method. Moreover, the former tends to overestimate short-term variability in heart rate. This calls for improvements in or alternatives to the pulse-cycle interval method. In this study, besides the systolic peak-peak interval method (PP method) that has been studied several times, four recent PPG-based techniques, namely the first derivative peak-peak interval method (P1D method), the second derivative peak-peak interval method (P2D method), the valley-valley interval method (VV method) and the tangent-intersection interval method (TI method) were compared with the gold standard technique. ECG and PPG signals were obtained from 10 young and healthy adults (consisting of both males and females) seated in the armchair position. In order to de-noise these signals and eliminate baseline drift, they were passed through certain digital filters. After filtering, the following HRV parameters were computed from PPG using each of the five methods and also from ECG using the gold standard method: time domain parameters (SDNN, pNN50 and RMSSD), frequency domain parameters (Very low-frequency power (VLF), Low-frequency power (LF), High-frequency power (HF) and Total power or “TP”). Besides, Poincaré plots were also plotted and their SD1/SD2 ratios determined. The resulting sets of parameters were compared with those yielded by the standard method using measures of statistical correlation (correlation coefficient) as well as statistical agreement (Bland-Altman plots). From the viewpoint of correlation, our results show that the best PPG-based methods for the determination of most parameters and Poincaré plots are the P2D method (shows more than 93% correlation with the standard method) and the PP method (mean correlation: 88%) whereas the TI, VV and P1D methods perform poorly (<70% correlation in most cases). However, our evaluation of statistical agreement using Bland-Altman plots shows that none of the five techniques agrees satisfactorily well with the gold standard method as far as time-domain parameters are concerned. In conclusion, excellent statistical correlation implies that certain PPG-based methods provide a good amount of information on the pattern of heart rate variation, whereas poor statistical agreement implies that PPG cannot completely replace ECG in the determination of HRV.

Keywords: photoplethysmography, heart rate variability, correlation coefficient, Bland-Altman plot

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Authors: Abeer K. Jameel, Harry Evdorides

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The Assessment of the road safety performance is a challengeable issue. This is not only because of the ineffective and unreliability of road and traffic crash data system but also because of its systematic character. Recent strategic plans and interventions implemented in some of the developed countries where a significant decline in the rate of traffic and road crashes considers that the road safety is a system. This system consists of four main elements which are: road user, road infrastructure, vehicles and speed in addition to other supporting elements such as the institutional framework and post-crash care system. To assess the performance of a system, it is required to assess all its elements. To present an understandable results of the assessment, it is required to present a unique term representing the performance of the overall system. This paper aims to develop an overall performance indicator which may be used to assess the road safety system. The variables of this indicators are the main elements of the road safety system. The data regarding these variables will be collected from the World Health Organization report. Multi-criteria analysis method is used to aggregate the four sub-indicators for the four variables. Two weighting methods will be assumed, equal weights and different weights. For the different weights method, the factor analysis method is used. The weights then will be converting to scores. The total score will be the overall indicator for the road safety performance in a national scale. This indicator will be used to compare and rank countries according to their road safety performance indicator. The country with the higher score is the country which provides most sustainable and effective interventions for successful road safety system. These indicator will be tested by comparing them with the aggregate real crash rate for each country.

Keywords: factor analysis, Multi-criteria analysis, road safety assessment, safe system indicator

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Authors: Anshu Radha Aggarwal

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As per the Right to Education Act (RTE), 2009, every child in the age group of 6-14 years shall be admitted in a neighborhood school. All the Out of School Children identified have to be enrolled / mainstreamed in to age appropriate class and there-after be provided special training. This paper addresses issues emerging from provisions in the RTE Act that specifically refer to the enrolment of out-of school children into age appropriate classes and the requirement to provide special trainings that will enable this to take place. In the context of RTE Act, the Out-of-School Children are first enrolled in the formal school and then they are provided with Special Training through NRSTCs (Long Term / Short term basis). These centers are functioning in formal school campus itself. This paper specifies the role of special training centers (STC). It presents a re-envisioning of assessment that recognizes two principal functions of assessment, assessment for learning and assessment of learning, instead of the more familiar categories of formative, diagnostic, summative, and evaluative assessment. The use of these two functions of assessment highlights and emphasizes the role of special training centers (STC) to assess their level for giving them appropriate special training and to evaluate their improvement in learning level. Challenge of problem faced by teachers to do diagnostic assessment, including its place in the sequence of assessment procedures appropriate in identifying and addressing individual children’s learning difficulties are solved by special training centers (STC). It is important that assessment is used to identify children with learning difficulties at the earliest possible stage so that appropriate support and intervention can be put in place. So appropriate challenges with tools are presented here for their assessment at entry level and at completion level of primary children by special training centers (STC).

Keywords: right to education, assessment, challenges, out of school children

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Authors: Armana Huq, Wahidur Rahman, Sanwar Kader

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Inland waterways in Bangladesh play an important role in providing comfortable and low-cost transportation. However, a maritime accident takes away many lives and creates unwanted hazards every year. This article deals with a comprehensive review of inland waterway accidents in Bangladesh. Additionally, it includes a comparative study between international and local inland research studies based on maritime accidents. Articles from inland waterway areas are analyzed in-depth to make a comprehensive overview of the nature of the academic work, accident and risk management process and different statistical analyses. It is found that empirical analysis based on the available statistical data dominates the research domain. For this study, major maritime accident-related works in the last four decades in Bangladesh (1981-2020) are being analyzed for preparing a bibliometric analysis. A study of maritime accidents of passenger's vessels during (1995-2005) indicates that the predominant causes of accidents in the inland waterways of Bangladesh are collision and adverse weather (77%), out of which collision due to human error alone stands (56%) of all accidents. Another study refers that the major causes of waterway accidents are the collision (60.3%) during 2005-2015. About 92% of this collision occurs due to direct contact with another vessel during this period. Rest 8% of the collision occurs by contact with permanent obstruction on waterway roots. The overall analysis of another study from the last 25 years (1995-2019) shows that one of the main types of accidents is collisions, with about 50.3% of accidents being caused by collisions. The other accident types are cyclone or storm (17%), overload (11.3%), physical failure (10.3%), excessive waves (5.1%), and others (6%). Very few notable works are available in testing or comparing the methods, proposing new methods for risk management, modeling, uncertainty treatment. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the evolution of marine accident-related research domain regarding inland waterway of Bangladesh and attempts to introduce new ideas and methods to abridge the gap between international and national inland maritime-related work domain which can be a catalyst for a safer and sustainable water transportation system in Bangladesh. Another fundamental objective of this paper is to navigate various national maritime authorities and international organizations to implement risk management processes for shipping accident prevention in waterway areas.

Keywords: inland waterways, safety, bibliometric analysis, risk management, accidents

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Authors: Imad Zeyad Ramadan

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In this paper a genetic algorithm was developed to construct the optimal portfolio based on the Treynor method. The GA maximizes the Treynor ratio under budget constraint to select the best allocation of the budget for the companies in the portfolio. The results show that the GA was able to construct a conservative portfolio which includes companies from the three sectors. This indicates that the GA reduced the risk on the investor as it choose some companies with positive risks (goes with the market) and some with negative risks (goes against the market).

Keywords: oOptimization, genetic algorithm, portfolio selection, Treynor method

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Authors: Deokho Kim, Wonwoo Lee, Jaewoong Lee, Teresa Ng, Gun-Ill Lee, Jiwon Jeong

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This paper presents a method for improving object search accuracy using a deep learning model. A major limitation to provide accurate similarity with deep learning is the requirement of huge amount of data for training pairwise similarity scores (metrics), which is impractical to collect. Thus, similarity scores are usually trained with a relatively small dataset, which comes from a different domain, causing limited accuracy on measuring similarity. For this reason, this paper proposes a deep learning model that can be trained with a significantly small amount of data, a clustered data which of each cluster contains a set of visually similar images. In order to measure similarity distance with the proposed method, visual features of two images are extracted from intermediate layers of a convolutional neural network with various pooling methods, and the network is trained with pairwise similarity scores which is defined zero for images in identical cluster. The proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art object similarity scoring techniques on evaluation for finding exact items. The proposed method achieves 86.5% of accuracy compared to the accuracy of the state-of-the-art technique, which is 59.9%. That is, an exact item can be found among four retrieved images with an accuracy of 86.5%, and the rest can possibly be similar products more than the accuracy. Therefore, the proposed method can greatly reduce the amount of training data with an order of magnitude as well as providing a reliable similarity metric.

Keywords: visual search, deep learning, convolutional neural network, machine learning

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Authors: Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Masoud Ferdosi, Abbas Haghshenas, Fatemeh Rezaei

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Surgical procedures aim at preserving human life and improving quality of their life. However, there are many potential risk sources that can cause serious harm to patients. For centuries, managers believed that technical competence of a surgeon is the only key to a successful surgery. But over the past decade, risks are considered in terms of process-based safety procedures, teamwork and inter departmental communication. Aims: This study aims to determine how the process- biased surgical risk management should be done in terms of project management tool named ABS (Activity Breakdown Structure). Settings and Design: This study was conducted in two stages. First, literature review and meeting with professors was done to determine principles and framework of surgical risk management. Next, responsible teams for surgical patient journey were involved in following meeting to develop the process- biased surgical risk management. Methods and Material: This study is a qualitative research in which focus groups with the inductive approach is used. Sampling was performed to achieve representativeness through intensity sampling biased on experience and seniority. Analysis Method used: context analysis of interviews and consensus themes extracted from FDG meetings discussion was the analysis tool. Results: we developed the patient journey process in 5 main phases, 24 activities and 108 tasks. Then, responsible teams, transposition and allocated places for performing determined. Some activities and tasks themes were repeated in each phases like patient identification and records review because of their importance. Conclusions: Risk management of surgical departments is significant as this facility is the hospital’s largest cost and revenue center. Good communication between surgical team and other clinical teams outside surgery department through process- biased perspective could improve safety of patient under this procedure.

Keywords: risk management, activity breakdown structure (ABS), surgical department, medical sciences

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Authors: Rochelle Elva

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Faculty in Higher Education today are faced with the challenge of convincing their students of the importance of learning and mastery of skills. This is because most students often have a single motivation -to get high grades. If it appears that this goal will not be met, they lose their motivation, and their academic efforts wane. This is true even for students in the competitive fields of STEM, including Computer Science majors. As educators, we have to understand our students and leverage what motivates them to achieve our learning outcomes. This paper presents a case study that utilizes cognitive psychology’s Expectancy Value Theory and Motivation Theory to investigate the effect of sustained expectancy for success on students’ learning outcomes. In our case study, we explore how students’ motivation and persistence in their academic efforts are impacted by providing them with an unexpected possible path to success that continues to the end of the semester. The approach was tested in an undergraduate computer science course with n = 56. The results of the study indicate that when presented with the real possibility of success, despite existing low grades, both low and high-scoring students persisted in their efforts to improve their performance. Their final grades were, on average, one place higher on the +/-letter grade scale, with some students scoring as high as three places above their predicted grade.

Keywords: expectancy for success and persistence, motivation and performance, computer science education, motivation and performance in computer science

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Authors: Beatriz González-rodrigo, Diego Hidalgo-leiva, Omar Flores, Claudia Germoso, Maribel Jiménez-martínez, Laura Navas-sánchez, Belén Orta, Nicola Tarque, Orlando Hernández- Rubio, Miguel Marchamalo, Juan Gregorio Rejas, Belén Benito-oterino

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Cities facing seismic hazard necessitate detailed risk assessments for effective urban planning and vulnerability identification, ensuring the safety and sustainability of urban infrastructure. Comprehensive studies involving seismic hazard, vulnerability, and exposure evaluations are pivotal for estimating potential losses and guiding proactive measures against seismic events. However, broad-scale traditional risk studies limit consideration of specific local threats and identify vulnerable housing within a structural typology. Achieving precise results at neighbourhood levels demands higher resolution seismic hazard exposure, and vulnerability studies. This research aims to bolster sustainability and safety against seismic disasters in three Central American and Caribbean capitals. It integrates geospatial techniques and artificial intelligence into seismic risk studies, proposing cost-effective methods for exposure data collection and damage prediction. The methodology relies on prior seismic threat studies in pilot zones, utilizing existing exposure and vulnerability data in the region. Emphasizing detailed building attributes enables the consideration of behaviour modifiers affecting seismic response. The approach aims to generate detailed risk scenarios, facilitating prioritization of preventive actions pre-, during, and post-seismic events, enhancing decision-making certainty. Detailed risk scenarios necessitate substantial investment in fieldwork, training, research, and methodology development. Regional cooperation becomes crucial given similar seismic threats, urban planning, and construction systems among involved countries. The outcomes hold significance for emergency planning and national and regional construction regulations. The success of this methodology depends on cooperation, investment, and innovative approaches, offering insights and lessons applicable to regions facing moderate seismic threats with vulnerable constructions. Thus, this framework aims to fortify resilience in seismic-prone areas and serves as a reference for global urban planning and disaster management strategies. In conclusion, this research proposes a comprehensive framework for seismic risk assessment in high-risk urban areas, emphasizing detailed studies at finer resolutions for precise vulnerability evaluations. The approach integrates regional cooperation, geospatial technologies, and adaptive fragility curve adjustments to enhance risk assessment accuracy, guiding effective mitigation strategies and emergency management plans.

Keywords: assessment, behaviour modifiers, emergency management, mitigation strategies, resilience, vulnerability

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Authors: Nnadi Ezekiel Ejiofor

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The construction industry plays a decisive role in the healthy development of any nation. Not only large but even small construction projects contribute to a country’s economic growth. There is a need for good management to ensure successful delivery and sustainability because of the plethora of risks that have resulted in low-profit margins for contractors, cost and schedule overruns, poor quality delivery, and abandoned projects. This research reviewed Capitalization on Sustainable Risk Management. Questionnaires and oral interviews conducted were utilized as means of data collection. One hundred and ninety-eight (198) large construction firms in Nigeria form the population of this study. 15 (fifteen) companies that emanated from merger and acquisition were used for the study. The instruments used for data collection were a researcher-developed structured questionnaire based on a five-point rating scale, interviews, focus group discussion, and secondary sources (bill of quantities and stock and exchange commission). The instrument was validated by two experts in the field. The reliability of the instrument was established by applying the split-half method. Kendall’s coefficient of concordance was used to test the data, and a degree of agreement was obtained. Data were subjected to descriptive statistics and analyzed using analysis of variance, t-test, and SPSS. The identified impacts of capitalization were an increase in turnover (24.5%), improvement in the image (24.5%), risk reduction (20%), business expansion (17.3%), and geographical spread (13.6%). The study strongly advocates the inclusion of risk management evaluation as part of the construction procurement process.

Keywords: capitalization, project delivery, risks, risk management, sustainability

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Authors: Mario M. J. Musonda

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Access to health care is a human right, which includes having timely access to affordable and quality essential medicines at the right place and in sufficient quantity. However, inefficient public sector supply chain management contributes to constant shortages of essential medicines at health facilities. Literature review involved a desktop study of published research studies and reports on risk management, supply chain management of essential medicines and their integration to increase the efficiency of the latter. The research was conducted on a sample population of offices under Ministry of Health Headquarters, Lusaka Provincial and District Offices, selected health facilities in Lusaka, Medical Stores Limited, Zambia Medicines Regulatory Authority and Cooperating Partners. Individuals involved in study were selected judgmentally by their functions under selection and quantification, regulation, procurement, storage, distribution, quality assurance, and dispensing of essential medicines. Structured interviews and discussions were held with selected experts and self-administered questionnaires were distributed. Collected and analysed data of 35 returned and usable questionnaires from the 50 distributed. The highest prioritised risks were; inadequate and inconsistent fund disbursements, weak information management systems, weak quality management systems and insufficient resources (HR and infrastructure) among others. The results for this research can be used to increase the efficiency of the public sector supply chain of essential medicines and other pharmaceuticals. The results of the study showed that there is need to implement effective risk management systems by participating institutions and organisations to increase the efficiency of the entire supply chain in order to avoid and/or reduce shortages of essential medicines at health facilities.

Keywords: essential medicine, risk assessment, risk management, supply chain, supply chain risk management

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Authors: Nguyen Van Loi, Le Thanh Son, Tran Trung Kien

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The paper deals with the problem of the formation of range profiles (RPs) for an X-band coastal surveillance radar. Two popular methods, the difference operator method, and the window-based method, are reviewed and analyzed via two tests with different datasets. The test results show that although the original window-based method achieves a better performance than the difference operator method, it has three main drawbacks that are the use of 3 or 4 peaks of an RP for creating the windows, the extension of the window size using the power sum of three adjacent cells in the left and the right sides of the windows and the same threshold applied for all types of vessels to finish the formation process of RPs. These drawbacks lead to inaccurate RPs due to the low signal-to-clutter ratio. Therefore, some suggestions are proposed to improve the original window-based method.

Keywords: range profile, difference operator method, window-based method, automatic target recognition

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Authors: Charles Chijioke Dike, Hugh Clifford Chima Maduka, Chinwe A. Isibor

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Fish is among the products consumed at a very high rate. In most countries of the world, fish are used as part of the daily meal. The high cost of commercial fish feeds in Africa has made it necessary the development of an alternative source of fish feed processing from organic waste. The objective of this research is to investigate the efficacy of fish feeds processed from various animal wastes in order to know whether those feeds shall be alternatives to commercial feeds. This work shall be carried out at the Research Laboratory Unit of the Department of Human Biochemistry, Faculty of Basic Medical Sciences, College of Health Sciences, Nnamdi Azikiwe University (NAU), Nnewi Campus, Anambra State. The fingerlings to be used shall be gotten from the Agricultural Department of NAU, Awka, Anambra State, and allowed to acclimatize for 14 d. Animal and food wastes shall be gotten from Nnewi. The fish shall be grouped into 1-13 (Chicken manure only, cow dung only, pig manure only, chicken manure + yeast, cow dung + yeast, pig manure + yeast, chicken manure + other wastes + yeast, cow dung + other wastes + yeast, and pig manure + other wastes + yeast. Feed assessment shall be carried out by determining bulk density, feed water absorption, feed hardness, feed oil absorption, and feed water stability. The nutritional analysis shall be carried out on the feeds processed. The risk assessment shall be done on the fish by determining methylmercury (MeHg), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) in the fish. The results from this study shall be analyzed statistically using SPSS statistical software, version 25. The hypothesis is that fish feeds processed from animal wastes are efficient in raising catfish. The outcome of this study shall provide the basis for the formulation of fish feeds from organic wastes.

Keywords: assessment, feeds, health risk, wastes

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Authors: Joseph Uche Azubike, Evelyn Ngozi Agbasi, M. I. Ogbonna

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The audit committee of the board of directors could no longer handle the enterprise's risks. Therefore, a risk management committee was created to control them. Thus, this study examined how enterprise risk management committee characteristics affected Nigerian exchange-listed banks' financial performance from 2013 to 2022. The study's hypotheses and three objectives were to determine how enterprise risk management committee size, composition, and gender diversity affect Nigerian banks' performance. An ex-post facto study design collected secondary data from bank annual reports. We used descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and Ordinary least square regression to analyze panel data. Enterprise risk management committee size and composition had both negative and no significant effect on bank financial performance in Nigeria, whereas enterprise risk committee gender diversity has a 10% favorable effect. The report advises that adding more women with relevant knowledge to the risk committee to boost performance and allowing women to be at the lead of such risk management could improve bank performance in Nigeria since they are noted to be thorough in their tasks.

Keywords: bank, committee, enterprise, management, performance, risk

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Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

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Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA

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Authors: Duygu Dere, Mert Ergeneci, Kaan Gokcesu

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Google Trends data has gained increasing popularity in the applications of behavioral finance, decision science and risk management. Because of Google’s wide range of use, the Trends statistics provide significant information about the investor sentiment and intention, which can be used as decisive factors for corporate and risk management fields. However, an anomaly, a significant increase or decrease, in a certain query cannot be detected by the state of the art applications of computation due to the random baseline noise of the Trends data, which is modelled as an Additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN). Since through time, the baseline noise power shows a gradual change an adaptive thresholding method is required to track and learn the baseline noise for a correct classification. To this end, we introduce an online method to classify meaningful deviations in Google Trends data. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our method can successfully classify various anomalies for plenty of different data.

Keywords: adaptive data processing, behavioral finance , convex optimization, online learning, soft minimum thresholding

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Authors: K. Umbleja, M. Ichino, H. Yaguchi

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In this paper, we propose a coloring method for multivariate data visualization by using parallel coordinates based on dissimilarity and tree structure information gathered during hierarchical clustering. The proposed method is an extension for proximity-based coloring that suffers from a few undesired side effects if hierarchical tree structure is not balanced tree. We describe the algorithm by assigning colors based on dissimilarity information, show the application of proposed method on three commonly used datasets, and compare the results with proximity-based coloring. We found our proposed method to be especially beneficial for symbolic data visualization where many individual objects have already been aggregated into a single symbolic object.

Keywords: data visualization, dissimilarity-based coloring, proximity-based coloring, symbolic data

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Authors: Odd Ivar Haugen

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This paper explores the relationship between assurance, risk, and risk management in the context of complex safety-related systems. It introduces a nuanced understanding of assurance and argues that the foundation for grounds for justified confidence in claims made about a complex system is related to the system behaviour. It emphasises the importance of knowledge as the cornerstone of assurance. The paper addresses the challenges of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties inherent in safety-critical systems. A systems approach is proposed to model emergent properties and complexity using the composition, environment, structure, mechanisms (CESM) metamodel, offering a structured framework for analysing system behaviour. The interplay between assurance and risk management is conceptualised through two models: the domain model and the control model. Assurance and risk management are mutually dependent on each other to reduce uncertainty and control risk levels. This work highlights the dual roles of assurance in risk management, acting as an epistemic actuator on the one side and providing feedback about the strength of the justification on the other. Assurance and risk management have inseparable roles in ensuring safety in complex systems.

Keywords: assurance, CESM metamodel, confidence, emergent properties, knowledge, objectivity, risk, system behaviour, system safety

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Authors: Mahmoud Reza Tahamtan, Mohammad Saleh Bahreini

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Background and Purpose: Cystic echinococcosis, caused by the larval stage of Echinococcus granulosus, is a common parasitic infection of humans and is endemic in many parts of the world, including Iran. So that, one percent of those admitted to surgery departments are hydatid cyst patients, and using the ELISA method, the infection rate has been reported in different regions of Iran from 1.2% to 21.4%. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the seroepidemiology of human hydatid cysts in Fars province, southern Iran, by ELISA method. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 600 serum samples of persons who were referred to the laboratory of Nemazi Hospital in Shiraz for normal tests were examined for the presence of specific Anti-IgG antibodies to hydatid cysts by ELISA method. During the sampling, a structured questionnaire was used to obtain social data of individuals with determinants of risk factors for Cystic echinococcosis. Finally, the results of the ELISA test, along with demographic information completed by individuals, were analyzed using SPSS software. Results: The average age of the subjects in this study was 40.01 ± 9.166. The prevalence of hydatidosis was reported as 5.66% (34/600). The disease was more in the age group of 21-30, people living in villages, working in rural areas, and people with a history of other parasitic diseases. Statistically, a significant difference was observed between the prevalence of the disease and two risk factors, contact with dogs (OR= 0.042; 95%CI: 0.014-0.12; P= 0.001) and washing vegetables with water (OR= 0.08; 95%CI: 0.011-0.56; P= 0.012). Conclusion: The present study showed that hydatid cyst disease has a significant prevalence in this area. Also, based on the results, contact with dogs and not properly washing vegetables are two important factors of disease transmission.

Keywords: Echinococcus granulosus, Cystic echinococcosis, hydatid cyst, Fars province

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Abraham Addo-Bediako

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Many freshwater ecosystems are facing immense pressure from anthropogenic activities, such as agricultural, industrial and mining. Trace metal pollution in freshwater ecosystems has become an issue of public health concern due to its toxicity and persistence in the environment. Trace elements pose a serious risk not only to the environment and aquatic biota but also humans. Chromium is one of such trace elements and its pollution in surface waters and groundwaters represents a serious environmental problem. In South Africa, agriculture, mining, industrial and domestic wastes are the main contributors to chromium discharge in rivers. The common forms of chromium are chromium (III) and chromium (VI). The latter is the most toxic because it can cause damage to human health. The aim of the study was to assess the contamination of chromium in the water and sediments of two rivers in the Steelpoort River sub-catchment of the Olifants River Basin, South Africa and human health risk. The concentration of Cr was analyzed using inductively coupled plasma–optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). The concentration of the metal was found to exceed the threshold limit, mainly in areas of high human activities. The hazard quotient through ingestion exposure did not exceed the threshold limit of 1 for adults and children and cancer risk for adults and children computed did not exceed the threshold limit of 10-4. Thus, there is no potential health risk from chromium through ingestion of drinking water for now. However, with increasing human activities, especially mining, the concentration could increase and become harmful to humans who depend on rivers for drinking water. It is recommended that proper management strategies should be taken to minimize the impact of chromium on the rivers and water from the rivers should properly be treated before domestic use.

Keywords: land use, health risk, metal pollution, water quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: E. Channol, O. Collet, N. Kostyuchyk, T. Mesbah, Quoc Hoang Long Nguyen

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In this paper, a pricing model is proposed for co-integrated commodities extending Larsson model. The futures formulae have been derived and tests have been performed with non-constant volatility. The model has been applied to energy commodities (gas, CO2, energy) and soft commodities (corn, wheat). Results show that non-constant volatility leads to more accurate short term prices, which provides better evaluation of value-at-risk and more generally improve the risk management.

Keywords: co-integration, soft commodities, risk management, value-at-risk

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Authors: Zenab Naseem, Sadia Imran

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One of the key solutions to the climate change crisis is to develop renewable energy resources, such as solar and wind power and biogas. This paper explores the socioeconomic and environmental viability of solar energy, based on a case study of the Soan Valley Development Program. Under this project, local farmers were provided solar water pumps at subsidized rates. These have been functional for the last seven years and have gained popularity among the local communities. The study measures the economic viability of using solar energy in agriculture, based on data from 36 households, of which 12 households each use diesel, electric and solar water pumps. Our findings are based on the net present value of each technology type. We also carry out a qualitative assessment of the social impact of solar water pumps relative to diesel and electric pumps. Finally, we conduct an environmental impact assessment, using the lifecycle assessment approach. All three analyses indicate that solar energy is a viable alternative to diesel and electricity.

Keywords: alternative energy sources, pollution control adoption and costs, solar energy pumps, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: R. Berglund, T. Backström, M. Bellgran

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This study explores how management addresses psychosocial risks in seven teams of engineers and technicians in the midst of the fourth industrial revolution. The sample is from an ongoing quasi-experiment about psychosocial risk management in a manufacturing company in Sweden. Each of the seven teams belongs to one of two clusters: a positive cluster or a negative cluster. The positive cluster reports a significantly positive change in psychosocial risk levels between two time-points and the negative cluster reports a significantly negative change. The data are collected using semi-structured interviews. The results of the computer aided thematic analysis show that there are more differences than similarities when comparing the risk treatment actions taken between the two clusters. Findings show that the managers in the positive cluster use more enabling actions that foster and support formal and informal relationship building. In contrast, managers that use less enabling actions hinder the development of positive group processes and contribute negative changes in psychosocial risk levels. This exploratory study sheds some light on how management can influence significant positive and negative changes in psychosocial risk levels during a risk management process.

Keywords: group process model, risk treatment, risk management, psychosocial

Procedia PDF Downloads 162