Search results for: Poisson model

Authors: Atheer Al-Nuaimi, Harry Evdorides

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Every day many people die or get disabled or injured on roads around the world, which necessitates more specific treatments for transportation safety issues. International road assessment program (iRAP) model is one of the comprehensive road safety models which accounting for many factors that affect road safety in a cost-effective way in low and middle income countries. In iRAP model road safety has been divided into five star ratings from 1 star (the lowest level) to 5 star (the highest level). These star ratings are based on star rating score which is calculated by iRAP methodology depending on road attributes, traffic volumes and operating speeds. The outcome of iRAP methodology are the treatments that can be used to improve road safety and reduce fatalities and serious injuries (FSI) numbers. These countermeasures can be used separately as a single countermeasure or mix as multiple countermeasures for a location. There is general agreement that the adequacy of a countermeasure is liable to consistent losses when it is utilized as a part of mix with different countermeasures. That is, accident diminishment appraisals of individual countermeasures cannot be easily added together. The iRAP model philosophy makes utilization of a multiple countermeasure adjustment factors to predict diminishments in the effectiveness of road safety countermeasures when more than one countermeasure is chosen. A multiple countermeasure correction factors are figured for every 100-meter segment and for every accident type. However, restrictions of this methodology incorporate a presumable over-estimation in the predicted crash reduction. This study aims to adjust this correction factor by developing new models to calculate the effect of using multiple countermeasures on the number of fatalities for a location or an entire road. Regression models have been used to establish relationships between crash frequencies and the factors that affect their rates. Multiple linear regression, negative binomial regression, and Poisson regression techniques were used to develop models that can address the effectiveness of using multiple countermeasures. Analyses are conducted using The R Project for Statistical Computing showed that a model developed by negative binomial regression technique could give more reliable results of the predicted number of fatalities after the implementation of road safety multiple countermeasures than the results from iRAP model. The results also showed that the negative binomial regression approach gives more precise results in comparison with multiple linear and Poisson regression techniques because of the overdispersion and standard error issues.

Keywords: international road assessment program, negative binomial, road multiple countermeasures, road safety

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Authors: Tugba Yilmaz Aydin, Ergun Guntekin, Murat Aydin

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Effects of heat treatment on the elastic constants of cedar wood (Cedrus libani) were investigated. Specimens were exposed to heat under atmospheric pressure at four different temperatures (120, 150, 180, 210 °C) and three different time levels (2, 5, 8 hours). Three Young’s modulus (EL, ER, ET) and six Poisson ratios (μLR, μLT, μRL, μRT, μTL, μTR) were determined from compression test using bi-axial extensometer at constant moisture content (12 %). Three shear modulus were determined using ultrasound. Six shear wave velocities propagating along the principal axes of anisotropy were measured using EPOCH 650 ultrasonic flaw detector with 1 MHz transverse transducers. The properties of the samples tested were significantly affected by heat treatment by different degree. As a result, softer treatments yielded some amount of increase in Young modulus and shear modulus values, but increase of time and temperature resulted in significant decrease for both values. Poisson ratios seemed insensitive to heat treatment.

Keywords: cedar wood, elastic constants, heat treatment, ultrasound

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Authors: Keltoum Bouherine, Olivier Leroy

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The present work is dedicated to study a three–dimensional (3D) self-consistent fluid simulation of microwave discharges of argon plasma in PECVD reactor. The model solves the Maxwell’s equations, continuity equations for charged species and the electron energy balance equation, coupled with Poisson’s equation, and Navier-Stokes equations by finite element method, using COMSOL Multiphysics software. In this study, the simulations yield the profiles of plasma components as well as the charge densities and electron temperature, the electric field, the gas velocity, and gas temperature. The results show that the microwave plasma reactor is outside of local thermodynamic equilibrium.The present work is dedicated to study a three–dimensional (3D) self-consistent fluid simulation of microwave discharges of argon plasma in PECVD reactor. The model solves the Maxwell’s equations, continuity equations for charged species and the electron energy balance equation, coupled with Poisson’s equation, and Navier-Stokes equations by finite element method, using COMSOL Multiphysics software. In this study, the simulations yield the profiles of plasma components as well as the charge densities and electron temperature, the electric field, the gas velocity, and gas temperature. The results show that the microwave plasma reactor is outside of local thermodynamic equilibrium.

Keywords: electron density, electric field, microwave plasma reactor, gas velocity, non-equilibrium plasma

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Authors: Ludivine Saint-Mard, Masato Nakajima, Gloria Senfaute

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In areas with low to moderate seismicity, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis frequently uses a Poisson approach, which assumes independence in time and space of events to determine the annual probability of earthquake occurrence. Nevertheless, in countries with high seismic rate, such as Japan, it is frequently use non-poissonian model which assumes that next earthquake occurrence depends on the date of previous one. The objective of this paper is to apply a non-poissonian models in a region of low to moderate seismicity to get a feedback on the following questions: can we overcome the lack of data to determine some key parameters?, and can we deal with uncertainties to apply largely this methodology on an industrial context?. The Brownian-Passage-Time model was applied to a fault located in France and conclude that even if the lack of data can be overcome with some calculations, the amount of uncertainties and number of scenarios leads to a numerous branches in PSHA, making this method difficult to apply on a large scale of low to moderate seismicity areas and in an industrial context.

Keywords: probabilistic seismic hazard, non-poissonian model, earthquake occurrence, low seismicity

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Authors: Samuel Ahamefula Mba

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Fluid turbulence is a complex and nonlinear phenomenon that occurs in various natural and industrial processes. Understanding turbulence remains a challenging task due to its intricate nature. One approach to gain insights into turbulence is through the study of entropy, which quantifies the disorder or randomness of a system. This research presents a numerical investigation of entropy signatures in fluid turbulence. The work is to develop a numerical framework to describe and analyse fluid turbulence in terms of entropy. This decomposes the turbulent flow field into different scales, ranging from large energy-containing eddies to small dissipative structures, thus establishing a correlation between entropy and other turbulence statistics. This entropy-based framework provides a powerful tool for understanding the underlying mechanisms driving turbulence and its impact on various phenomena. This work necessitates the derivation of the Poisson equation for pressure transformation of Navier-Stokes equation and using Chebyshev-Finite Difference techniques to effectively resolve it. To carry out the mathematical analysis, consider bounded domains with smooth solutions and non-periodic boundary conditions. To address this, a hybrid computational approach combining direct numerical simulation (DNS) and Large Eddy Simulation with Wall Models (LES-WM) is utilized to perform extensive simulations of turbulent flows. The potential impact ranges from industrial process optimization and improved prediction of weather patterns.

Keywords: turbulence, Navier-Stokes equation, Poisson pressure equation, numerical investigation, Chebyshev-finite difference, hybrid computational approach, large Eddy simulation with wall models, direct numerical simulation

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Authors: Jiahao Tian, Michael D. Porter

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Law enforcement agencies are tasked with crime prevention and crime reduction under limited resources. Having an accurate temporal estimate of the crime rate would be valuable to achieve such a goal. However, estimation is usually complicated by the interval-censored nature of crime data. We cast the problem of intensity estimation as a Poisson regression using an EM algorithm to estimate the parameters. Two special penalties are added that provide smoothness over the time of day and day of the week. This approach presented here provides accurate intensity estimates and can also uncover day-of-week clusters that share the same intensity patterns. Anticipating where and when crimes might occur is a key element to successful policing strategies. However, this task is complicated by the presence of interval-censored data. The censored data refers to the type of data that the event time is only known to lie within an interval instead of being observed exactly. This type of data is prevailing in the field of criminology because of the absence of victims for certain types of crime. Despite its importance, the research in temporal analysis of crime has lagged behind the spatial component. Inspired by the success of solving crime-related problems with a statistical approach, we propose a statistical model for the temporal intensity estimation of crime with censored data. The model is built on Poisson regression and has special penalty terms added to the likelihood. An EM algorithm was derived to obtain maximum likelihood estimates, and the resulting model shows superior performance to the competing model. Our research is in line with the smart policing initiative (SPI) proposed by the Bureau Justice of Assistance (BJA) as an effort to support law enforcement agencies in building evidence-based, data-driven law enforcement tactics. The goal is to identify strategic approaches that are effective in crime prevention and reduction. In our case, we allow agencies to deploy their resources for a relatively short period of time to achieve the maximum level of crime reduction. By analyzing a particular area within cities where data are available, our proposed approach could not only provide an accurate estimate of intensities for the time unit considered but a time-variation crime incidence pattern. Both will be helpful in the allocation of limited resources by either improving the existing patrol plan with the understanding of the discovery of the day of week cluster or supporting extra resources available.

Keywords: cluster detection, EM algorithm, interval censoring, intensity estimation

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Authors: Sergey A. Lurie, Yury O. Solyaev, Dmitry B. Volkov-Bogorodsky, Alexander V. Volkov

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The media with voids is considered and the method of the analytical estimation of the effective mechanical properties in the theory of elastic materials with voids is proposed. The variational model of the porous media is discussed, which is based on the model of the media with fields of conserved dislocations. It is shown that this model is fully consistent with the known model of the linear elastic materials with voids. In the present work, the generalized model of the porous media is proposed in which the specific surface properties are associated with the field of defects-pores in the volume of the deformed body. Unlike typical surface elasticity model, the strain energy density of the considered model includes the special part of the surface energy with the quadratic form of the free distortion tensor. In the result, the non-classical boundary conditions take modified form of the balance equations of volume and surface stresses. The analytical approach is proposed in the present work which allows to receive the simple enough engineering estimations for effective characteristics of the media with free dilatation. In particular, the effective flexural modulus and Poisson's ratio are determined for the problem of a beam pure bending. Here, the known voids elasticity solution was expanded on the generalized model with the surface effects. Received results allow us to compare the deformed state of the porous beam with the equivalent classic beam to introduce effective bending rigidity. Obtained analytical expressions for the effective properties depend on the thickness of the beam as a parameter. It is shown that the flexural modulus of the porous beam is decreased with an increasing of its thickness and the effective Poisson's ratio of the porous beams can take negative values for the certain values of the model parameters. On the other hand, the effective shear modulus is constant under variation of all values of the non-classical model parameters. Solutions received for a beam pure bending and the hydrostatic loading of the porous media are compared. It is shown that an analytical estimation for the bulk modulus of the porous material under hydrostatic compression gives an asymptotic value for the effective bulk modulus of the porous beam in the case of beam thickness increasing. Additionally, it is shown that the scale effects appear due to the surface properties of the porous media. Obtained results allow us to offer the procedure of an experimental identification of the non-classical parameters in the theory of the linear elastic materials with voids based on the bending tests for samples with different thickness. Finally, the problem of implementation of the Saint-Venant hypothesis for the transverse stresses in the porous beam are discussed. These stresses are different from zero in the solution of the voids elasticity theory, but satisfy the integral equilibrium equations. In this work, the exact value of the introduced surface parameter was found, which provides the vanishing of the transverse stresses on the free surfaces of a beam.

Keywords: effective properties, scale effects, surface defects, voids elasticity

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Authors: Jerzy Smardzewski

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Structures with negative Poisson's ratios are called auxetic. They are characterized by better mechanical properties than conventional structures, especially shear strength, the ability to better absorb energy and increase strength during bending, especially in sandwich panels. Commonly used paper cores of cellular boards are made of hexagonal cells. With isotropic facings, these cells provide isotropic properties of the entire furniture board. Shelves made of such panels with a thickness similar to standard chipboards do not provide adequate stiffness and strength of the furniture. However, it is possible to transform the shape of hexagonal cells into polyhedral auxetic cells that improve the mechanical properties of the core. The work aimed to transform the hexagonal cells of the paper core into auxetic cells and determine their basic mechanical properties. Using numerical methods, it was decided to design the most favorable proportions of cells distinguished by the lowest Poisson's ratio and the highest modulus of linear elasticity. Standard cores for cellular boards commonly used to produce 34 mm thick furniture boards were used for the tests. Poisson's ratios, bending strength, and linear elasticity moduli were determined for such cores and boards. Then, the cells were transformed into auxetic structures, and analogous cellular boards were made for which mechanical properties were determined. The results of numerical simulations for which the variable parameters were the dimensions of the cell walls, wall inclination angles, and relative cell density were presented in the further part of the paper. Experimental tests and numerical simulations showed the beneficial effect of auxeticization on the mechanical quality of furniture panels. They allowed for the selection of the optimal shape of auxetic core cells.

Keywords: auxetics, honeycomb, panels, simulation, experiment

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Authors: Fouzia Khanam, Belal Hossain, Kaosar Afsana, Mahfuzar Rahman

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Aim: Although cardiovascular diseases (CVD) has already been recognized as a major cause of death in developed countries, its prevalence is rising in developing countries as well, and engendering a challenge for the health sector. Bangladesh has experienced an epidemiological transition from communicable to non-communicable diseases over the last few decades. So, the rising prevalence of CVD and its risk factors are imposing a major problem for the country. We aimed to examine the prevalence of CVDs and socioeconomic and lifestyle factors related to it from a population-based survey. Methods: The data used for this study were collected as a part of a large-scale cross-sectional study conducted to explore the overall health status of children, mothers and senior citizens of Bangladesh. Multistage cluster random sampling procedure was applied by considering unions as clusters and households as the primary sampling unit to select a total of 11,428 households for the base survey. Present analysis encompassed 12338 respondents of ≥ 35 years, selected from both rural areas and urban slums of the country. Socio-economic, demographic and lifestyle information were obtained through individual by a face-to-face interview which was noted in ODK platform. And height, weight, blood pressure and glycosuria were measured using standardized methods. Chi-square test, Univariate modified Poisson regression model, and multivariate modified Poisson regression model were done using STATA software (version 13.0) for analysis. Results: Overall, the prevalence of CVD was 4.51%, of which 1.78% had stroke and 3.17% suffered from heart diseases. Male had higher prevalence of stroke (2.20%) than their counterparts (1.37%). Notably, thirty percent of respondents had high blood pressure and 5% population had diabetes and more than half of the population was pre-hypertensive. Additionally, 20% were overweight, 77% were smoker or consumed smokeless tobacco and 28% of respondents were physically inactive. Eighty-two percent of respondents took extra salt while eating and 29% of respondents had deprived sleep. Furthermore, the prevalence of risk factor of CVD varied according to gender. Women had a higher prevalence of overweight, obesity and diabetes. Women were also less physically active compared to men and took more extra salt. Smoking was lower in women compared to men. Moreover, women slept less compared to their counterpart. After adjusting confounders in modified Poisson regression model, age, gender, occupation, wealth quintile, BMI, extra salt intake, daily sleep, tiredness, diabetes, and hypertension remained as risk factors for CVD. Conclusion: The prevalence of CVD is significant in Bangladesh, and there is an evidence of rising trend for its risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes especially in older population, women and high-income groups. Therefore, in this current epidemiological transition, immediate public health intervention is warranted to address the overwhelming CVD risk.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, hypertension, stroke

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Authors: Ana Clara Santos, Maria Manuela Portela, Bettina Schaefli

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This work assesses the performance of an analytical model framework to generate daily flow duration curves, FDCs, based on climatic characteristics of the catchments and on their streamflow recession coefficients. According to the analytical model framework, precipitation is considered to be a stochastic process, modeled as a marked Poisson process, and recession is considered to be deterministic, with parameters that can be computed based on different models. The analytical model framework was tested for three case studies with different hydrological regimes located in Switzerland: pluvial, snow-dominated and glacier. For that purpose, five time intervals were analyzed (the four meteorological seasons and the civil year) and two developments of the model were tested: one considering a linear recession model and the other adopting a nonlinear recession model. Those developments were combined with recession coefficients obtained from two different approaches: forward and inverse estimation. The performance of the analytical framework when considering forward parameter estimation is poor in comparison with the inverse estimation for both, linear and nonlinear models. For the pluvial catchment, the inverse estimation shows exceptional good results, especially for the nonlinear model, clearing suggesting that the model has the ability to describe FDCs. For the snow-dominated and glacier catchments the seasonal results are better than the annual ones suggesting that the model can describe streamflows in those conditions and that future efforts should focus on improving and combining seasonal curves instead of considering single annual ones.

Keywords: analytical streamflow distribution, stochastic process, linear and non-linear recession, hydrological modelling, daily discharges

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Authors: Lichung Jen, Yi Chun Liu, Kuan-Wei Lee

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Fruitful data has been accumulated in database nowadays and is commonly used as support for decision-making. In the healthcare industry, hospital, for instance, ordering pharmacy inventory is one of the key decision. With large drug inventory, the current cost increases and its expiration dates might lead to future issue, such as drug disposal and recycle. In contrast, underestimating demand of the pharmacy inventory, particularly standing drugs, affects the medical treatment and possibly hospital reputation. Prescription behaviour of hospital physicians is one of the critical factor influencing this decision, particularly irregular prescription behaviour. If a drug’s usage amount in the month is irregular and less than the regular usage, it may cause the trend of subsequent stockpiling. On the contrary, if a drug has been prescribed often than expected, it may result in insufficient inventory. We proposed a hierarchical Bayesian mixture model with two components to identify physicians’ regular/irregular prescription patterns with probabilities. Heterogeneity of hospital is considered in our proposed hierarchical Bayes model. The result suggested that modeling the prescription patterns of physician is beneficial for estimating the order quantity of medication and pharmacy inventory management of the hospital. Managerial implication and future research are discussed.

Keywords: hierarchical Bayesian model, poission mixture model, medicines prescription behavior, irregular behavior

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Authors: Yehya Rasool, Mohit Agrawal

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The site characterization and site response analysis are the crucial steps for reliable seismic microzonation of an area. So, the basic parameters involved in these fundamental steps are required to be chosen properly in order to efficiently characterize the vulnerable sites of the study region. In this study, efforts are made to delineate the variations in the physical parameter of the soil for the summer and monsoon seasons of the year (2021) by using Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratios (HVSRs) recorded at five sites of the Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines), Dhanbad, Jharkhand, India. The data recording at each site was done in such a way that less amount of anthropogenic noise was recorded at each site. The analysis has been done for five seismic parameters like predominant frequency, H/V ratio, the phase velocity of Rayleigh waves, shear wave velocity (Vs), compressional wave velocity (Vp), and Poisson’s ratio for both the seasons of the year. From the results, it is observed that these parameters majorly vary drastically for the upper layers of soil, which in turn may affect the amplification ratios and probability of exceedance obtained from seismic hazard studies. The HVSR peak comes out to be higher in monsoon, with a shift in predominant frequency as compared to the summer season of the year 2021. Also, the drastic reduction in shear wave velocity (up to ~10 m) of approximately 7%-15% is also perceived during the monsoon period with a slight decrease in compressional wave velocity. Generally, the increase in the Poisson ratios is found to have higher values during monsoon in comparison to the summer period. Our study may be very beneficial to various agricultural and geotechnical engineering projects.

Keywords: HVSR, shear wave velocity profile, Poisson ratio, microtremor data

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Authors: Abdelmadjid Mammeri, Fatima Zohra Mahi, Luca Varani, H. Marinchoi

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We propose an analytical model for the admittance and the noise calculations of the InGaAs transistor and diode. The development of the small-signal admittance takes into account the longitudinal and transverse electric fields through a pseudo two-dimensional approximation of the Poisson equation. The frequency-dependent of the small-signal admittance response is determined by the total currents and the potentials matrix relation between the gate and the drain terminals. The noise is evaluated by using the real part of the transistor/diode admittance under a small-signal perturbation. The analytical results show that the admittance spectrum exhibits a series of resonant peaks corresponding to the excitation of plasma waves. The appearance of the resonance is discussed and analyzed as functions of the channel length and the temperature. The model can be used, on one hand; to control the appearance of the plasma resonances, and on other hand; can give significant information about the noise frequency dependence in the InGaAs transistor and diode.

Keywords: InGaAs transistors, InGaAs diode, admittance, resonant peaks, plasma waves, analytical model

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Authors: Ergun Guntekin

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Effects of heat treatment on elastic constants of Black pine (Pinus nigra) wood were investigated. Specimens were exposed to heat under atmospheric pressure at two different temperatures (180 and 210 °C) and three different time levels (2, 5, 8 hours). Three Young’s modulus in three anatomical directions, six Poisson’s ratios and three Shear modulus values associated with the main directions were evaluated by compression tests. Compression strength of the samples in three principal directions was also determined. All of the properties of the specimens tested were altered by heat treatment. The degree of alteration depends on the temperature as well as duration applied. Results indicate that EL and compression strength in L direction were not significantly influenced, compression strength in R direction significantly decreased, ER, ET and compression strength in T direction were increased for shorter periods, then dropped for 8-hour application of 180 ºC. ER was not significantly affected, compression strength in R direction and EL was significantly decreased, ET and compression strength in T direction were increased for shorter periods, then decreased for 8-hour application of 210 ºC. The shear modulus of the samples was decreased with application of treatment combinations. Most of the Poisson’s ratios were not affected by heat treatment.

Keywords: black pine, elastic constants, heat treatment, wood

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Authors: Tippawan Nasawan

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The objective of this study is to find the replenishment policy in Assembly-to-Order manufacturing (ATO) which some of the major components have lead-time longer than customer lead-time. The variety of products, independent component demand, and long component lead-time are the difficulty that has resulted in the overstock problem. In addition, the ordering cost is trivial when compared to the cost of material of the major component. A conceptual design of the Decision Supporting System (DSS) has introduced to assist the replenishment policy. Component replenishment by using the variable which calls Available to Promise (ATP) for making the decision is one of the keys. The Poisson distribution is adopted to realize demand patterns in order to calculate Safety Stock (SS) at the specified Customer Service Level (CSL). When distribution cannot identify, nonparametric will be applied instead. The test result after comparing the ending inventory between the new policy and the old policy, the overstock has significantly reduced by 46.9 percent or about 469,891.51 US-Dollars for the cost of the major component (material cost only). Besides, the number of the major component inventory is also reduced by about 41 percent which helps to mitigate the chance of damage and keeping stock.

Keywords: Assembly-to-Order, Decision Supporting System, Component replenishment , Poisson distribution

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Authors: Darius Diogo Barreto, Ajeet Kumar, Sushma Santapuri

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We present an axisymmetric variational formulation for coupled extension-torsion-inflation deformation in magnetoelastomeric thin tubes when both azimuthal and axial magnetic fields are applied. The tube's material is assumed to have a preferred magnetization direction which imparts helical magnetic anisotropy to the tube. We have also derived the expressions of the first derivative of free energy per unit tube's undeformed length with respect to various imposed strain parameters. On applying the thin tube limit, the two nonlinear ordinary differential equations to obtain the in-plane radial displacement and radial component of the Lagrangian magnetic field get converted into a set of three simple algebraic equations. This allows us to obtain simple analytical expressions in terms of the applied magnetic field, magnetization direction, and magnetoelastic constants, which tell us how these parameters can be tuned to generate positive/negative Poisson's effect in such tubes. We consider both torsionally constrained and torsionally relaxed stretching of the tube. The study can be useful in designing magnetoelastic tubular actuators.

Keywords: nonlinear magnetoelasticity, extension-torsion coupling, negative Poisson's effect, helical anisotropy, thin tube

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Authors: Kais Ben-Ahmed, Mhamed Ali-El-Aroui

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This paper develops a Local Generalized Linear Spatial Model (LGLSM) to describe the spatial variation of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) infection risk in northern and central Tunisia. The response from each region is a number of affected children less than five years of age recorded from 1996 through 2006 from Tunisian pediatric departments and treated as a poison county level data. The model includes climatic factors, namely averages of annual rainfall, extreme values of low temperatures in winter and high temperatures in summer to characterize the climate of each region according to each continentality index, the pluviometric quotient of Emberger (Q2) to characterize bioclimatic regions and component for residual extra-poison variation. The statistical results show the progressive increase in the number of affected children in regions with high continentality index and low mean yearly rainfull. On the other hand, an increase in pluviometric quotient of Emberger contributed to a significant increase in VL incidence rate. When compared with the original GLSM, Bayesian locally modeling is improvement and gives a better approximation of the Tunisian VL risk estimation. According to the Bayesian approach inference, we use vague priors for all parameters model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

Keywords: generalized linear spatial model, local model, extra-poisson variation, continentality index, visceral leishmaniasis, Tunisia

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Authors: W. Sriwattanapongse, S. Prasitwattanaseree, S. Wongtrangan

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The transportation accidents mortality is a major problem that leads to loss of human lives, and economic. The objective was to identify patterns of statistical modeling for estimating mortality rates due to transportation accidents in Thailand by using data from 2000 to 2009. The data was taken from the death certificate, vital registration database. The number of deaths and mortality rates were computed classifying by gender, age, year and region. There were 114,790 cases of transportation accidents deaths. The highest average age-specific transport accident mortality rate is 3.11 per 100,000 per year in males, Southern region and the lowest average age-specific transport accident mortality rate is 1.79 per 100,000 per year in females, North-East region. Linear, poisson and negative binomial models were chosen for fitting statistical model. Among the models fitted, the best was chosen based on the analysis of deviance and AIC. The negative binomial model was clearly appropriate fitted.

Keywords: transportation accidents, mortality, modeling, analysis of deviance

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Authors: Seok-In Bae, Young-Hoon Lee, Ji-Hwan Kim

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Due to the asymmetry of the material properties of the Functionally Graded Materials(FGMs) in the thickness direction, neutral surface of the model is not the same as the mid-plane of the symmetric structure. In order to investigate the thermal bucking behavior of FGMs, neutral surface is chosen as a reference plane. In the model, material properties are assumed to be temperature dependent, and varied continuously in the thickness direction of the plate. Further, the effective material properties such as Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio are homogenized using Mori-Tanaka scheme which considers the interaction among adjacent inclusions. In this work, the finite element methods are used, and the first-order shear deformation theory of plate are accounted. The thermal loads are assumed to be uniform, linear and non-linear distribution through the thickness directions, respectively. Also, the effects of various parameters for thermal buckling behavior of FGM panel are discussed in detail.

Keywords: functionally graded plate, thermal buckling analysis, neutral surface

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Authors: Berkay Ergene, Çağın Bolat

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In this study, we mainly focused on a simulation study regarding composite footbed in order to contribute to shoe industry. As a footbed, e-glass fiber reinforced polyurethane was determined since polyurethane based materials are already used for footbed in shoe manufacturing frequently. Flat, elliptical and rectangular grooved shoe soles were modeled and analyzed separately as TPU, 10% glass fiber reinforced, 30% glass fiber reinforced and 50% glass fiber reinforced materials according to their properties under three point bending and compression situations to determine the relationship between model, material type and mechanical behaviours of composite model. ANSYS 14.0 APDL mechanical structural module is utilized in all simulations and analyzed stress and strain distributions for different footbed models and materials. Furthermore, materials constants like young modulus, shear modulus, Poisson ratio and density of the composites were calculated theoretically by using composite mixture rule and interpreted for mechanical aspects.

Keywords: composite, elastic behaviour, footbed, simulation

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Authors: Mizam Dogan, Hande Gökdemir

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In reinforced concrete elements, reinforcement steel bars are placed in concrete both longitudinal and lateral directions. The lateral reinforcement (called as confinement) which is used for confining circular RC elements is in a spiral shape. If the cross section of RC element is rectangular, stirrups should be rectangular too. At very high compressive stresses concrete will reach its limit strain value and therefore concrete outside the lateral reinforcement, which is not confined, will crush and start to spell. At this stage, concrete core of the RC element tries to expand laterally as a reason of high Poisson’s ratio value of concrete. Such a deformation is prevented by the lateral reinforcement which applies lateral passive pressure on concrete. At very high compressive stresses, the strength of reinforced column member rises to four times σ 2. This increase in strength of member is related to the properties of rectangular stirrups. In this paper, effect of stirrup step spacing to column behavior is calculated and presented confined concrete model is proved by numerical solutions.

Keywords: confined concrete, concrete column, stress-strain, stirrup, solid, frame

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Authors: Golnaz Shahtahmassebi, Jose Maria Sarabia

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In this talk, we introduce a new class of conjugate prior distributions obtained from conditional specification methodology. We illustrate the application of such distribution in Bayesian change point detection in Poisson processes. We obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters using a general bivariate distribution with gamma conditionals. Simulation from the posterior is readily implemented using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. The Gibbs sampling is implemented even when using conditional densities that are incompatible or only compatible with an improper joint density. The application of such methods will be demonstrated using examples of simulated and real data.

Keywords: change point, bayesian inference, Gibbs sampler, conditional specification, gamma conditional distributions

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Authors: Kayijuka Idrissa

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This work investigates a mathematical study for traffic flow and traffic density in Kigali city roads and the data collected from the national police of Rwanda in 2012. While working on this topic, some mathematical models were used in order to analyze and compare traffic variables. This work has been carried out on Kigali roads specifically at roundabouts from Kigali Business Center (KBC) to Prince House as our study sites. In this project, we used some mathematical tools to analyze the data collected and to understand the relationship between traffic variables. We applied the Poisson distribution method to analyze and to know the number of accidents occurred in this section of the road which is from KBC to Prince House. The results show that the accidents that occurred in 2012 were at very high rates due to the fact that this section has a very narrow single lane on each side which leads to high congestion of vehicles, and consequently, accidents occur very frequently. Using the data of speeds and densities collected from this section of road, we found that the increment of the density results in a decrement of the speed of the vehicle. At the point where the density is equal to the jam density the speed becomes zero. The approach is promising in capturing sudden changes on flow patterns and is open to be utilized in a series of intelligent management strategies and especially in noncurrent congestion effect detection and control.

Keywords: statistical methods, traffic flow, Poisson distribution, car moving technics

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Authors: Abdelaziz Rabhi, Mohamed Amrani, Abderrazek Ziane, Nabil Belkadi, Abdelraouf Hocini

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In this paper, a bedimensional simulation program of the electric characteristics of reverse biased lateral polysilicon PIN diode is presented. In this case we have numerically solved the system of partial differential equations formed by Poisson's equation and both continuity equations that take into account the effect of impact ionization. Therefore we will obtain the current-voltage characteristics (I-V) of the reverse-biased structure which may include the effect of breakdown.The geometrical model assumes that the polysilicon layer is composed by a succession of defined mean grain size crystallites, separated by lateral grain boundaries which are parallel to the metallurgic junction.

Keywords: breakdown, polycrystalline silicon, PIN, grain, impact ionization

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Authors: Akalu Banbeta, Emmanuel Lesaffre, Reynaldo Martina, Joost Van Rosmalen

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Including data from previous studies (historical data) in the analysis of the current study may reduce the sample size requirement and/or increase the power of analysis. The most common example is incorporating historical control data in the analysis of a current clinical trial. However, this only applies when the historical control dataare similar enough to the current control data. Recently, several Bayesian approaches for incorporating historical data have been proposed, such as the meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) prior and the modified power prior (MPP) both for single control as well as for multiple historical control arms. Here, we examine the performance of the MAP and the MPP approaches for the analysis of (over-dispersed) count data. To this end, we propose a computational method for the MPP approach for the Poisson and the negative binomial models. We conducted an extensive simulation study to assess the performance of Bayesian approaches. Additionally, we illustrate our approaches on an overactive bladder data set. For similar data across the control arms, the MPP approach outperformed the MAP approach with respect to thestatistical power. When the means across the control arms are different, the MPP yielded a slightly inflated type I error (TIE) rate, whereas the MAP did not. In contrast, when the dispersion parameters are different, the MAP gave an inflated TIE rate, whereas the MPP did not.We conclude that the MPP approach is more promising than the MAP approach for incorporating historical count data.

Keywords: count data, meta-analytic prior, negative binomial, poisson

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Authors: Somnath Bhattacharyya

Abstract:

The mobile adsorbed surface charge on hydrophobic surfaces can modify the velocity slip condition as well as create a Marangoni stress at the interface. The functionalized hydrophobic walls of micro/nanopores, e.g., graphene nanochannels, may possess physio-sorbed ions. The lateral mobility of the physisorbed absorbed ions creates a friction force as well as an electric force, leading to a modification in the velocity slip condition at the hydrophobic surface. In addition, the non-uniform distribution of these surface ions creates a surface tension gradient, leading to a Marangoni stress. The impact of the mobile surface charge on streaming potential and electrochemical energy conversion efficiency in a pressure-driven flow of ionized liquid through the nanopore is addressed. Also, enhanced electro-osmotic flow through the hydrophobic nanochannel is also analyzed. The mean-filed electrokinetic model is modified to take into account the short-range non-electrostatic steric interactions and the long-range Coulomb correlations. The steric interaction is modeled by considering the ions as charged hard spheres of finite radius suspended in the electrolyte medium. The electrochemical potential is modified by including the volume exclusion effect, which is modeled based on the BMCSL equation of state. The electrostatic correlation is accounted for in the ionic self-energy. The extremal of the self-energy leads to a fourth-order Poisson equation for the electric field. The ion transport is governed by the modified Nernst-Planck equation, which includes the ion steric interactions; born force arises due to the spatial variation of the dielectric permittivity and the dielectrophoretic force on the hydrated ions. This ion transport equation is coupled with the Navier-Stokes equation describing the flow of the ionized fluid and the 3fourth-order Poisson equation for the electric field. We numerically solve the coupled set of nonlinear governing equations along with the prescribed boundary conditions by adopting a control volume approach over a staggered grid arrangement. In the staggered grid arrangements, velocity components are stored on the midpoint of the cell faces to which they are normal, whereas the remaining scalar variables are stored at the center of each cell. The convection and electromigration terms are discretized at each interface of the control volumes using the total variation diminishing (TVD) approach to capture the strong convection resulting from the highly enhanced fluid flow due to the modified model. In order to link pressure to the continuity equation, we adopt a pressure correction-based iterative SIMPLE (Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure-Linked Equations) algorithm, in which the discretized continuity equation is converted to a Poisson equation involving pressure correction terms. Our results show that the physisorbed ions on a hydrophobic surface create an enhanced slip velocity when streaming potential, which enhances the convection current. However, the electroosmotic flow attenuates due to the mobile surface ions.

Keywords: microfluidics, electroosmosis, streaming potential, electrostatic correlation, finite sized ions

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Authors: Adeel Zulifqar, Hong Hu

Abstract:

Auxetic fabrics are a special kind of textile materials which possess negative Poisson’s ratio. Opposite to most of the conventional fabrics, auxetic fabrics get bigger in the transversal direction when stretched or get smaller when compressed. Auxetic fabrics are superior to conventional fabrics because of their counterintuitive properties, such as enhanced porosity under the extension, excellent formability to a curved surface and high energy absorption ability. Up till today, auxetic fabrics have been produced based on two approaches. The first approach involves using auxetic fibre or yarn and weaving technology to fabricate auxetic fabrics. The other method to fabricate the auxetic fabrics is by using non-auxetic yarns. This method has gained extraordinary curiosity of researcher in recent years. This method is based on realizing auxetic geometries into the fabric structure. In the woven fabric structure auxetic geometries can be realized by creating a differential shrinkage phenomenon into the fabric structural unit cell. This phenomenon can be created by using loose and tight weave combinations within the unit cell of interlacement pattern along with elastic and non-elastic yarns. Upon relaxation, the unit cell of interlacement pattern acquires a non-uniform shrinkage profile due to different shrinkage properties of loose and tight weaves in designed pattern, and the auxetic geometry is realized. The development of uni-stretch auxetic woven fabrics and bi-stretch auxetic woven fabrics by using this method has already been reported. This study reports the development of another kind of bi-stretch auxetic woven fabric. The fabric is first designed by transforming the auxetic geometry into interlacement pattern and then fabricated, using the available conventional weaving technology and non-auxetic elastic and non-elastic yarns. The tensile tests confirmed that the developed bi-stretch auxetic woven fabrics exhibit negative Poisson’s ratio over a wide range of tensile strain. Therefore, it can be concluded that the auxetic geometry can be realized into the woven fabric structure by creating the phenomenon of differential shrinkage and bi-stretch woven fabrics made of non-auxetic yarns having auxetic behavior and stretchability are possible can be obtained. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government (grant number 15205514).

Keywords: auxetic, differential shrinkage, negative Poisson's ratio, weaving, stretchable

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Matthias Walluch, José Alberto Rodríguez, Christopher Giehl, Gunther Arnold, Daniela Ehgartner

Abstract:

Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) is a powerful method to characterize viscoelastic properties and phase transitions for a wide range of materials. It is often used to characterize polymers and their temperature-dependent behavior, including thermal transitions like the glass transition temperature Tg, via determination of storage and loss moduli in tension (Young’s modulus, E) and shear or torsion (shear modulus, G) or other testing modes. While production and application temperatures for polymers are often limited to several hundred degrees, material properties of glasses usually require characterization at temperatures exceeding 600 °C. This contribution highlights a high temperature setup for rotational and oscillatory rheometry as well as for DMA in different modes. The implemented standard convection oven enables the characterization of glass in different loading modes at temperatures up to 950 °C. Three-point bending, tension and torsional measurements on different glasses, with E and G moduli as a function of frequency and temperature, are presented. Additional tests include superimposing several frequencies in a single temperature sweep (“multiwave”). This type of test results in a considerable reduction of the experiment time and allows to evaluate structural changes of the material and their frequency dependence. Furthermore, DMA in torsion and tension was performed to determine the complex Poisson’s ratio as a function of frequency and temperature within a single test definition. Tests were performed in a frequency range from 0.1 to 10 Hz and temperatures up to the glass transition. While variations in the frequency did not reveal significant changes of the complex Poisson’s ratio of the glass, a monotonic increase of this parameter was observed when increasing the temperature. This contribution outlines the possibilities of DMA in bending, tension and torsion for an extended temperature range. It allows the precise mechanical characterization of material behavior from room temperature up to the glass transition and the softening temperature interval. Compared to other thermo-analytical methods, like Dynamic Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) where mechanical stress is neglected, the frequency-dependence links measurement results (e.g. relaxation times) to real applications

Keywords: dynamic mechanical analysis, oscillatory rheometry, Poisson's ratio, solid glass, viscoelasticity

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Authors: Simran Kaur, Paul J. Van Geel

Abstract:

A coupled Thermal-Mechanical-Biological (TMB) model was developed for the analysis of impacts of temperatures on waste stabilization at a Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) landfill in Quebec, Canada using COMSOL Multiphysics, a finite element-based software. For waste placed in landfills in Northern climates during winter months, it can take months or even years before the waste approaches ideal temperatures for biodegradation to occur. Therefore, the proposed model links biodegradation induced strain in MSW to waste temperatures and corresponding heat generation rates as a result of anaerobic degradation. This provides a link between the thermal-biological and mechanical behavior of MSW. The thermal properties of MSW are further linked to density which is tracked and updated in the mechanical component of the model, providing a mechanical-thermal link. The settlement of MSW is modelled based on the concept of viscoelasticity. The specific viscoelastic model used is a single Kelvin – Voight viscoelastic body in which the finite element response is controlled by the elastic material parameters – Young’s Modulus and Poisson’s ratio. The numerical model was validated with 10 years of temperature and settlement data collected from a landfill in Ste. Sophie, Quebec. The coupled TMB modelling framework, which simulates placement of waste lifts as they are placed progressively in the landfill, allows for optimization of several thermal and mechanical parameters throughout the depth of the waste profile and helps in better understanding of temperature dependence of MSW stabilization. The model is able to illustrate how waste placed in the winter months can delay biodegradation-induced settlement and generation of landfill gas. A delay in waste stabilization will impact the utilization of the approved airspace prior to the placement of a final cover and impact post-closure maintenance. The model provides a valuable tool to assess different waste placement strategies in order to increase airspace utilization within landfills operating under different climates, in addition to understanding conditions for increased gas generation for recovery as a green and renewable energy source.

Keywords: coupled model, finite element modeling, landfill, municipal solid waste, waste stabilization

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Authors: Naren Bag, S. Bhattacharyya, Partha P. Gopmandal

Abstract:

In this study, we have analyzed the transport of analytes under a two dimensional steady incompressible flow of power-law fluids through rectangular nanochannel. A mathematical model based on the Cauchy momentum-Nernst-Planck-Poisson equations is considered to study the combined effect of mixed electroosmotic (EO) and pressure driven (PD) flow. The coupled governing equations are solved numerically by finite volume method. We have studied extensively the effect of key parameters, e.g., flow behavior index, concentration of the electrolyte, surface potential, imposed pressure gradient and imposed electric field strength on the net average flow across the channel. In addition to study the effect of mixed EOF and PD on the analyte distribution across the channel, we consider a nonlinear model based on general convective-diffusion-electromigration equation. We have also presented the retention factor for various values of electrolyte concentration and flow behavior index.

Keywords: electric double layer, finite volume method, flow behavior index, mixed electroosmotic/pressure driven flow, non-Newtonian power-law fluids, numerical simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 311