Search results for: simulation techniques

Authors: Ilme Faridatul, Bo Wu

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Bangladesh is often called as a motherland of rivers. It contains about 700 rivers among all these the Padma River is one of the largest rivers of Bangladesh. The change of river bank and erosion has become a common environmental natural hazard in Bangladesh. The river banks are under intense pressure from natural processes such as erosion and accretion as well as anthropogenic processes such as urban growth and pollution. The Padma River is flowing along ten districts of Bangladesh among all these Faridpur district is most vulnerable to river bank erosion. The severity of the river erosion is so high that each year a thousand of populations become homeless and lose their agricultural lands. Though the Faridpur district is most vulnerable to river bank erosion no specific research has been conducted to identify the changing pattern of river bank along this district. The outcome of the research may serve as guidance to prepare river bank monitoring program and management. This research has utilized integrated techniques of remote sensing and geographic information system to monitor the changes from 1995 to 2015 at Faridpur district. To discriminate the land water interface Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) algorithm is applied and on screen digitization approach is used over MNDWI images of 1995, 2002 and 2015 for river bank line extraction. The extent of changes in the river bank along Faridpur district is estimated through overlaying the digitized maps of all three years. The river bank lines are highlighted to infer the erosion and accretion and the changes are calculated. The result shows that the middle of the river is gaining land through sedimentation and the both side river bank is shifting causing severe erosion that consequently resulting the loss of farmland and homestead. Over the study period from 1995 to 2015 it witnessed huge erosion and accretion that played an active role in the changes of the river bank.

Keywords: river bank, erosion and accretion, change monitoring, remote sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 310

Authors: Agata Krawczyk-Ozog, Mateusz K. Holda, Mateusz Koziej, Danuta Sorysz, Zbigniew Siudak, Wieslawa Klimek-Piotrowska, Dariusz Dudek

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Introduction: Rapid development of the surgical and less-invasive percutaneous mitral valve repair procedures greatly increase the interest of the mitral valve anatomy. The aim of this study was to characterize morphological variability of the mitral valve leaflets and to provide the size of their particular parts. Materials and Methods: In the study, we included 200 autopsied human hearts from Caucasian individuals (25% females) with mean age 47.5 (±17.9) without any valvular diseases. The morphology of the mitral valve was evaluated. The intercommissural and aorto-mural diameters of the mitral annulus were measured. All leaflets and their scallops were identified. The base and the height of the posteromedial commissure (PM-C), anterolateral commissure (AL-C), anterior leaflet (AL) and posterior leaflet (PL) with their scallops were measured. Results: The intercommissural diameter was 28.0±4.8 mm, the aorto-mural diameter 19.7±4.8 mm, circumference of the mitral annulus 89.9±12.6 mm and the area of the mitral valve 485.4±171.4 mm2. Classical mitral valves (AL+AL-C+PL(P1,P2,P3)+PM-C) were found in 141 (70.5%) specimens. In classical type, the mean AL base and height were 30.8±4.9 mm and 20.6±4.2 mm, while mean PL base and height 45.1±8.2 mm 12.9±2.8 mm respectively. The mean ratio of the AL base to PL base was 0.7±0.2. Variations in PL were found in 55 (27.5%) and in AL in 5 (2.5%) hearts. The most common variations were: valve with one accessory scallop (AcS) between P3 and PM-C (7%); AcS between P1 and AL-C (4%); connections of P2 and P3 scallops (4%); connections of P1 and P2 scallops (3%); AcS in AL (2.5%). All AcS were smaller than the main PL scallops. The mean intertrigonal distance was 21.9±3.8 mm. Conclusions: In all cases, the mitral valve is built by two main leaflets with possible variants in secondary to leaflets scallops (29.5%). The variations are largely associated with PL and are mostly related to the presence of AcS. Anatomically the AL is not divided into scallops, and it occupies 34.5% of the mitral annulus circumference. Understanding the anatomy of the mitral valve leaflets helps to planning and performing mitral valve repair procedures.

Keywords: accessory scallop, commissure, connected scallops, human heart, mitral leaflets, mitral valve

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Authors: Bergun Meric Bingul, Cigdem Bulgan, Ozlem Tore, Mensure Aydin, Erdal Bal

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The aim of the study was to compare the effects of impact forces and some kinematic parameters with two different straight punch stance positions in boxing. 9 elite boxing athletes from the Turkish National Team (mean age± SD 19.33±2.11 years, mean height 174.22±3.79 cm, mean weight 66.0±6.62 kg) participated in this study as voluntarily. Boxing athletes performed one trial in straight punch technique for each two different stance positions (orthodox and southpaw stances) at sandbag. The trials were recorded at a frequency of 120Hz using eight synchronized high-speed cameras (Oqus 7+), which were placed, approximately at right- angles to one another. The three-dimensional motion analysis was performed with a Motion Capture System (Qualisys, Sweden). Data was transferred to Windows-based data acquisition software, which was QTM (Qualisys Track Manager). 11 segment models were used for determination of the kinematic variables (Calf, leg, punch, upperarm, lowerarm, trunk). Also, the sandbag was markered for calculation of the impact forces. Wand calibration method (with T stick) was used for field calibration. The mean velocity and acceleration of the punch; mean acceleration of the sandbag and angles of the trunk, shoulder, hip and knee were calculated. Stance differences’ data were compared with Wilcoxon test for using SPSS 20.0 program. According to the results, there were statistically significant differences found in trunk angle on the sagittal plane (yz) (p<0.05). There was a significant difference also found in sandbag acceleration and impact forces between stance positions (p < 0.05). Boxing athletes achieved more impact forces and accelerations in orthodox stance position. It is recommended that to use an orthodox stance instead of southpaw stance in straight punch technique especially for creating more impact forces.

Keywords: boxing, impact force, kinematics, straight punch, orthodox, southpaw

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Authors: Fengqing Li, Petra Schneider

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Failure of tailings management facilities (TMF) of radioactive residues is an enormous challenge worldwide and can result in major catastrophes. Particularly in transboundary regions, such failure is most likely to lead to international conflict. This risk occurs in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, where the current major challenge is the quantification of impacts due to pollution from uranium legacy sites and especially the impact on river basins after natural hazards (i.e., landslides). By means of GoldSim, a probabilistic simulation model, the amount of tailing material that flows into the river networks of Mailuu Suu in Kyrgyzstan after pond failure was simulated for three scenarios, namely 10%, 20%, and 30% of material inputs. Based on Muskingum-Cunge flood routing procedure, the peak value of uranium flood wave along the river network was simulated. Among the 23 TMF, 19 ponds are close to the river networks. The spatiotemporal distributions of uranium along the river networks were then simulated for all the 19 ponds under three scenarios. Taking the TP7 which is 30 km far from the Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan border as one example, the uranium concentration decreased continuously along the longitudinal gradient of the river network, the concentration of uranium was observed at the border after 45 min of the pond failure and the highest value was detected after 69 min. The highest concentration of uranium at the border were 16.5, 33, and 47.5 mg/L under scenarios of 10%, 20%, and 30% of material inputs, respectively. In comparison to the guideline value of uranium in drinking water (i.e., 30 µg/L) provided by the World Health Organization, the observed concentrations of uranium at the border were 550‒1583 times higher. In order to mitigate the transboundary impact of a radioactive pollutant release, an integrated framework consisting of three major strategies were proposed. Among, the short-term strategy can be used in case of emergency event, the medium-term strategy allows both countries handling the TMF efficiently based on the benefit-sharing concept, and the long-term strategy intends to rehabilitate the site through the relocation of all TMF.

Keywords: Central Asia, contaminant transport modelling, radioactive residue, transboundary conflict

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Authors: Gizachew Belay Adugna

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Scalable and cost-effective device fabrication techniques are urgent to commercialize the perovskite solar cells (PSCs) for the next photovoltaic (PV) technology. Herein, large-area films of perovskite and hole-transporting materials (HTMs) were developed via a rapid and scalable thermal-assisting bar-coating process in the open air. High-quality and large crystalline grains of MAPbI₃ with homogenous morphology and thickness were obtained on a large-area (10 cm×10 cm) solution-sheared mp-TiO₂/c-TiO₂/FTO substrate. Encouraging photovoltaic performance of 19.02% was achieved for devices fabricated from the bar-coated perovskite film compared to that from the small-scale spin-coated film (17.27%) with 2,2′,7,7′-tetrakis-(N,N-di-p-methoxyphenylamine)-9,9′-spirobifluorene (spiro-OMeTAD) as an HTM whereas a higher power conversion efficiency of 19.89% with improved device stability was achieved by capping a fluorinated (HYC-2) HTM as an alternative to the traditional spiro-OMeTAD. The fluorinated exhibited better molecular packing in the HTM film and deeper HOMO level compared to the nonfluorinated counterpart; thus, improved hole mobility and overall charge extraction in the device were demonstrated. Furthermore, excellent film processability and an impressive PCE of 18.52% were achieved in the large area bar-coated HYC-2 prepared sequentially on the perovskite underlayer in the open atmosphere, compared to the bar-coated spiro-OMeTAD/perovskite (17.51%). This all-solution approach demonstrated the feasibility of high-quality films on a large-area substrate for PSCs, which is a vital step toward industrial-scale PV production.

Keywords: perovskite solar cells, hole transporting materials, up-scaling process, power conversion efficiency

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Authors: Dharshika Rajalingam, Jeffery W. Peng

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Acinetobacter baumannii is a challenging threat to global health, recognized as a multidrug-resistant pathogen. -lactamase is one of the principal resistant mechanisms developed by A. baumannii to survive against -lactam antibiotics. OXA24/40 is one of the types of -lactamases, a well-documented carbapenem hydrolyzing class D -lactamases (CHDL). It was revealed that OXA24/40 showed resistivity against doripenem, one of the carbapenems, by two different mechanisms as hydrolysis and -lactonization. Furthermore, it undergoes genetic mutations to broaden the -lactamase activity to survive against antibiotic environments. One of the crucial characterizations of prokaryotes to develop adaptation is post-translational modification (PTM), mainly phosphorylation. However, the PTM of OXA24/40 is an unknown feature, and the impact of PTM on antibiotic resistivity is yet to be explored. We approached these hypotheses using NMR and MS techniques and found that the OXA24/40 could be phosphorylated in vitro. The Ser81 at the active STFK motif of OXA24/40 of catalytic pocket was identified as the site of phosphorylation using 1D 31P NMR experiment, whereas S81 is required to form an acyl-enzyme complex between enzyme and -lactam antibiotics. The activity of completely phosphorylated OXA24/40 wild type against doripenem revealed that the phosphorylation of active Ser inactivates the -lactamases activity of OXA24/40. The 1D 1H CPMG NMR-based activity assay of phosphorylated OXA24/40 against doripenem confirmed that both deactivating mechanisms are inhibited by phosphorylation. Carbamylated Lysine at the active STFK motif is one of the critical features of CHDL required for the acylation and deacylation reactions of the enzyme. The 1D 13C NMR experiment confirmed that the K84 of phosphorylated OXA24/40 is de-carbamylated. Phosphorylation of OXA24/40 affects both active S81 and carbamylated K84 of OXA24 that are required for the resistivity of -lactamase. So, phosphorylation could be one of the reasons for the genetic mutation of OXA24/40 for the development of antibiotic resistivity. Further research can lead to an understanding of the effect of phosphorylation on the clinical mutants of the OXA24-like -lactamase family on the broadening of -lactamase activity.

Keywords: OXA24/40, phosphorylation, clinical mutants, resistivity

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Authors: Odeh Regina Comfort, Angelina Okewu Ogwuche

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The study investigated transformational leadership style of principal and conflict management in secondary schools in North Central Nigeria. A descriptive survey design was adopted. The population of the study comprised 34,473 teachers in 1949 public secondary schools in the study area. Proportionate stratified random sampling and simple random sampling techniques were used to select 39 public secondary schools and 689 respondents, respectively, for the study. The researcher utilized a self-structured questionnaire titled 'Influence of Transformational Leadership Style Questionnaire (ITLSQ)'. Face and content validity were ensured. The reliability index of 0.86 was obtained through Cronbach alpha statistics. The instrument was a modified Likert rating scale of Very High Extent (4), High Extent (3), Low Extent (2) and Very Low Extent (1). Mean, and standard deviation were used to answer 2 research questions, while chi-square goodness of fit was used to test the 2 hypotheses at 0.05 level of significance. The results among others indicate: that intellectual stimulation and individualized components of transformational leadership style of principal in public secondary schools in the study area have significant influence on conflict management in secondary schools. Based on the results, it was recommended that principals of secondary schools should be encouraged to practice the intellectual stimulation component of transformational leadership style that would help to consider teachers' levels of knowledge to decide what suits them to reach high levels of attainment thereby minimizing conflict in school settings; also transformational leadership should be taught to all people at all levels of secondary school especially that which pertains to individualized consideration to have a positive impact on the overall performance of teachers and this would help to minimize conflict in schools.

Keywords: conflict management, individualized consideration, intellectual stimulation, transformational leadership style

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Kasra Majbouri Yazdi, Adel Majbouri Yazdi, Saeid Khodayi, Jingyu Hou, Wanlei Zhou, Saeed Saedy

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Fake news and false information are big challenges of all types of media, especially social media. There is a lot of false information, fake likes, views and duplicated accounts as big social networks such as Facebook and Twitter admitted. Most information appearing on social media is doubtful and in some cases misleading. They need to be detected as soon as possible to avoid a negative impact on society. The dimensions of the fake news datasets are growing rapidly, so to obtain a better result of detecting false information with less computation time and complexity, the dimensions need to be reduced. One of the best techniques of reducing data size is using feature selection method. The aim of this technique is to choose a feature subset from the original set to improve the classification performance. In this paper, a feature selection method is proposed with the integration of K-means clustering and Support Vector Machine (SVM) approaches which work in four steps. First, the similarities between all features are calculated. Then, features are divided into several clusters. Next, the final feature set is selected from all clusters, and finally, fake news is classified based on the final feature subset using the SVM method. The proposed method was evaluated by comparing its performance with other state-of-the-art methods on several specific benchmark datasets and the outcome showed a better classification of false information for our work. The detection performance was improved in two aspects. On the one hand, the detection runtime process decreased, and on the other hand, the classification accuracy increased because of the elimination of redundant features and the reduction of datasets dimensions.

Keywords: clustering, fake news detection, feature selection, machine learning, social media, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 161

Authors: ȘercăIanu Mihai, Aldea Mihaela, Iacoboaea Cristina, Luca Oana, Nenciu Ioana

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The emergence and neutralization of illegal waste dumps represent a global concern for waste management ecosystems with a particularly pronounced impact on disadvantaged communities. All over the world, and in this particular case in Romania, a relevant number of people resided in houses lacking any legal forms such as land ownership documents or building permits. These areas are referred to as “informal settlements”. An increasing number of regions and cities in Romania are struggling to manage their waste dumps, especially in the context of increasing poverty and lack of regulation related to informal settlements. An example of such informal settlement can be found at the terminus of Bistra Street in Câlnic, which falls under the jurisdiction of the Municipality of Reșița in Caras Severin County. The article presents a case study that focuses on employing remote sensing techniques and spatial data to monitor and map illegal waste practices, with subsequent integration into a geographic information system tailored for the Reșița community. In addition, the paper outlines the steps involved in devising strategies aimed at enhancing waste management practices in disadvantaged areas, aligning with the shift toward a circular economy. Results presented in the paper contain a spatial mapping and visualization methodology calibrated with in situ data collection applicable for identifying illegal landfills. The emergence and neutralization of illegal dumps pose a challenge in the field of waste management. These approaches, which prove effective where conventional solutions have failed, need to be replicated and adopted more wisely.

Keywords: waste dumps, waste management, monitoring, GIS, informal settlements

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Ibrahim Magaji

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WhatsApp messaging platform brings about new opportunities for users to participate in unique storytelling experiences and audience engagement, particularly to Students of Mass communication who receive training to report events and issues accurately and objectively in accordance with official controls. Also, the complex nature of society today made it possible to use the WhatsApp platform that revolutionizes the means of sharing information, ideas, and experiences. This paper examined the WhatsApp messaging platform and how it influenced the academic performance of students in the Department of Mass Communication, Abdu Gusau Polytechnic, Talata Mafara. It used in-depth interview techniques and focus group discussion with students, as well as the use of published materials as well as unpublished materials to gather related and relevant data. Also, the paper used procedures involved to analyze long interview content. This procedure includes observation of a useful utterance, development of expanded observation, the examination of the interconnection of observed comments, collective scrutiny of observation for patterns and themes, and review and analysis of the themes across all interviews for development of the thesis. The result revealed that the majority of students used WhatsApp messenger for making friends and chatting. Also, the students experienced negative effects such as poor grammar and spelling, less study time, and poor academic performance because of active participation in the use of WhatsApp messaging platform. Surprisingly, there was a high addiction rate among students in the usage of WhatsApp messenger. However, other students experienced an improvement in their readings skills as a result of participation in the use of the platform. Also, students shared ideas, discussed, and shared examination questions among themselves on WhatsApp messenger.

Keywords: WhatsApp messenger, students, participation, group

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Abduladim Maitieg, Mark Johnson

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Developing a coastal oil spill management plan for the Misratah coast is the motivating factor for building a database for coastal and marine systems and energy resources. Wind direction and speed, currents, bathymetry, coastal topography and offshore dynamics influence oil spill deposition in coastal water. Therefore, oceanographic and climatological data can be used to understand oil slick movement and potential oil deposits on shoreline area and the behaviour of oil spill trajectories on the sea surface. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the coastal and marine physical factors under strong wave conditions and various bathymetric and coastal topography gradients in the western coastal area of Libya on the movement of oil slicks. The movement of oil slicks was computed using a GNOME simulation model based on current and wind speed/direction. The results in this paper show that (1) Oil slick might reach the Misratah shoreline area in two days in the summer and winter. Seasons. (2 ) The North coast of Misratah is the potential oil deposit area on the Misratah coast. (3) Tarball pollution was observed along the North coast of Misratah. (4) Two scenarios for the summer and the winter season were run, along the western coast of Libya . (5) The eastern coast is at a lower potential risk due to the influence of wind and current energy in the Gulf of Sidra. (6) The Misratah coastline is more vulnerable to oil spill movement in the summer than in winter seasons. (7) Oil slick takes from 2 to 5 days to reach the saltmarsh in the eastern Misratah coast. (8) Oil slick moves 300 km in 30 days from the spill resource location near the Libyan western border to the Misratah coast.(9) Bathymetric features have a profound effect on oil spill movement. (9)Oil dispersion simulations using GNOME are carried out taking into account high-resolution wind and current data.

Keywords: oil spill movement, coastal and marine physical factors, coast area, Libyan

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Authors: Kevin A. Droguett, Edwin G. Pérez, Denis Fuentealba, Margarita E. Aliaga, Angélica M. Fierro

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Supramolecular chemistry is a field of growing interest. Moreover, studying the formation of host-guest complexes between macrocycles and dyes is highly attractive due to their potential applications. Examples of the above are drug delivery, catalytic process, and sensing, among others. There are different dyes of interest in the literature; one example is the quinolinone derivatives. Those molecules have good optical properties and chemical and thermal stability, making them suitable for developing fluorescent probes. Secondly, several macrocycles can be seen in the literature. One example is the cucurbiturils. This water-soluble macromolecule family has a hydrophobic cavity and two identical carbonyl portals. Additionally, the thermodynamic analysis of those supramolecular systems could help understand the affinity between the host and guest, their interaction, and the main stabilization energy of the complex. In this work, two 7-(diethylamino) quinoline-2 (1H)-one derivative (QD1-2) and their interaction with cucurbit[7]uril (CB[7]) were studied from an experimental and in-silico point of view. For the experimental section, the complexes showed a 1:1 stoichiometry by HRMS-ESI and isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC). The inclusion of the derivatives on the macrocycle lends to an upward shift in the fluorescence intensity, and the pKa value of QD1-2 exhibits almost no variation after the formation of the complex. The thermodynamics of the inclusion complexes was investigated using ITC; the results demonstrate a non-classical hydrophobic effect with a minimum contribution from the entropy term and a constant binding on the order of 106 for both ligands. Additionally, dynamic molecular studies were carried out during 300 ns in an explicit solvent at NTP conditions. Our finding shows that the complex remains stable during the simulation (RMSD ~1 Å), and hydrogen bonds contribute to the stabilization of the systems. Finally, thermodynamic parameters from MMPBSA calculations were obtained to generate new computational insights to compare with experimental results.

Keywords: host-guest complexes, molecular dynamics, quinolin-2(1H)-one derivatives dyes, thermodynamics

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Authors: Teklay Tesfay, Gebreyesus Brhane Tesfahunegn, Abadi Berhane, Selemawit Girmay

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Adjusting the proper sowing date of a crop at a particular location with a changing climate is an essential management option to maximize crop yield. However, determining the optimum sowing date for rainfed maize production through field experimentation requires repeated trials for many years in different weather conditions and crop management. To avoid such long-term experimentation to determine the optimum sowing date, crop models such as AquaCrop are useful. Therefore, the overall objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of AquaCrop model in simulating maize productivity under varying sowing dates. A field experiment was conducted for two consecutive cropping seasons by deploying four maize seed sowing dates in a randomized complete block design with three replications. Input data required to run this model are stored as climate, crop, soil, and management files in the AquaCrop database and adjusted through the user interface. Observed data from separate field experiments was used to calibrate and validate the model. AquaCrop model was validated for its performance in simulating the green canopy and aboveground biomass of maize for the varying sowing dates based on the calibrated parameters. Results of the present study showed that there was a good agreement (an overall R2 =, Ef= d= RMSE =) between measured and simulated values of the canopy cover and biomass yields. Considering the overall values of the statistical test indicators, the performance of the model to predict maize growth and biomass yield was successful, and so this is a valuable tool help for decision-making. Hence, this calibrated and validated model is suggested to use for determining optimum maize crop sowing date for similar climate and soil conditions to the study area, instead of conducting long-term experimentation.

Keywords: AquaCrop model, calibration, validation, simulation

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Authors: M. M. Hefnawy, A. M. A. Homoda, M. A. Abounassif, A. M. Alanazia, A. Al-Majed, Gamal A. E. Mostafa

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PVC membrane sensors using different approach e.g. ion-pair, ionophore, and Schiff-base has been used as testing membrane sensor. Analytical applications of membrane sensors for direct measurement of variety of different ions in complex biological and environmental sample are reported. The most important step of such PVC membrane sensor is the sensing active material. The potentiometric sensors have some outstanding advantages including simple design, operation, wide linear dynamic range, relative fast response time, and rotational selectivity. The analytical applications of these techniques to pharmaceutical compounds in dosage forms are also discussed. The construction and electrochemical response characteristics of Poly (vinyl chloride) membrane sensors for moxifloxacin HCl (MOX) are described. The sensing membranes incorporate ion association complexes of moxifloxacin cation and sodium tetraphenyl borate (NaTPB) (sensor 1), phosphomolybdic acid (PMA) (sensor 2) or phosphotungstic acid (PTA) (sensor 3) as electroactive materials. The sensors display a fast, stable and near-Nernstian response over a relative wide moxifloxacin concentration range (1 ×10-2-4.0×10-6, 1 × 10-2-5.0×10-6, 1 × 10-2-5.0×10-6 M), with detection limits of 3×10-6, 4×10-6 and 4.0×10-6 M for sensor 1, 2 and 3, respectively over a pH range of 6.0-9.0. The sensors show good discrimination of moxifloxacin from several inorganic and organic compounds. The direct determination of 400 µg/ml of moxifloxacin show an average recovery of 98.5, 99.1 and 98.6 % and a mean relative standard deviation of 1.8, 1.6 and 1.8% for sensors 1, 2, and 3 respectively. The proposed sensors have been applied for direct determination of moxifloxacin in some pharmaceutical preparations. The results obtained by determination of moxifloxacin in tablets using the proposed sensors are comparable favorably with those obtained using the US Pharmacopeia method. The sensors have been used as indicator electrodes for potentiometric titration of moxifloxacin.

Keywords: potentiometry, PVC, membrane sensors, ion-pair, ionophore, schiff-base, moxifloxacin HCl, sodium tetraphenyl borate, phosphomolybdic acid, phosphotungstic acid

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Authors: Musse Mohamud Ahmed, Tina Linda Achilles, Mohammad Kamrul Hasan

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Deterioration of the mother nature is evident these day with clear danger of human catastrophe emanating from greenhouses (GHG) with increasing CO2 emissions to the environment. PV technology can help to reduce the dependency on fossil fuel, decreasing air pollution and slowing down the rate of global warming. The objective of this paper is to propose, develop and design the production of clean water supply to rural communities using an appropriate technology such as Internet of Things (IOT) that does not create any CO2 emissions. Additionally, maximization of solar energy power output and reciprocally minimizing the natural characteristics of solar sources intermittences during less presence of the sun itself is another goal to achieve in this work. The paper presents the development of critical automated control system for solar energy power output optimization using several new techniques. water pumping system is developed to supply clean water with the application of IOT-renewable energy. This system is effective to provide clean water supply to remote and off-grid areas using Photovoltaics (PV) technology that collects energy generated from the sunlight. The focus of this work is to design and develop a submersible solar water pumping system that applies an IOT implementation. Thus, this system has been executed and programmed using Arduino Software (IDE), proteus, Maltab and C++ programming language. The mechanism of this system is that it pumps water from water reservoir that is powered up by solar energy and clean water production was also incorporated using filtration system through the submersible solar water pumping system. The filtering system is an additional application platform which is intended to provide a clean water supply to any households in Sarawak State, Malaysia.

Keywords: IOT, automated production and control system, water filtration, automated submersible water pump, solar energy

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Authors: Mehdi Habibagahi, Shami Nejadi, Ata Aminfar

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A significant degradation factor that impacts the durability of concrete structures is the alkali-silica reaction. Engineers are frequently charged with the challenges of conducting a thorough safety assessment of concrete structures that have been impacted by ASR. The alkali-silica reaction has a major influence on the structural capacities of structures. In most cases, the reduction in compressive strength, tensile strength, and modulus of elasticity is expressed as a function of free expansion and crack widths. Predicting the effect of ASR on flexural strength is also relevant. In this paper, a nonlinear three-dimensional (3D) finite-element model was proposed to describe the flexural strength degradation induced byASR.Initial strains, initial stresses, initial cracks, and deterioration of material characteristics were all considered ASR factors in this model. The effects of ASR on structural performance were evaluated by focusing on initial flexural stiffness, force–deformation curve, and load-carrying capacity. Degradation of concrete mechanical properties was correlated with ASR growth using material test data conducted at Tech Lab, UTS, and implemented into the FEM for various expansions. The finite element study revealed a better understanding of the ASR-affected RC beam's failure mechanism and capacity reduction as a function of ASR expansion. Furthermore, in this study, decreasing of the residual mechanical properties due to ASRisreviewed, using as input data for the FEM model. Finally, analysis techniques and a comparison of the analysis and the experiment results are discussed. Verification is also provided through analyses of reinforced concrete beams with behavior governed by either flexural or shear mechanisms.

Keywords: alkali-silica reaction, analysis, assessment, finite element, nonlinear analysis, reinforced concrete

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Authors: Emily Rabe, Stephanie Candelaria, Rachel Malone, Olivia Lenz, Greg Newbloom

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Electrodialysis (ED) is a well-developed technology for ion removal in a variety of applications. However, many industries generate harsh wastewater streams that are incompatible with traditional ion exchange membranes. Membrion® has developed novel ceramic-based ion exchange membranes (IEMs) offering several advantages over traditional polymer membranes: high performance in low pH, chemical resistance to oxidizers, and a rigid structure that minimizes swelling. These membranes are synthesized with our patented silane-based sol-gel techniques. The pore size, shape, and network structure are engineered through a molecular self-assembly process where thermodynamic driving forces are used to direct where and how pores form. Either cationic or anionic groups can be added within the membrane nanopore structure to create cation- and anion-exchange membranes. The ceramic IEMs are produced on a roll-to-roll manufacturing line with low-temperature processing. Membrane performance testing is conducted using in-house permselectivity, area-specific resistance, and ED stack testing setups. Ceramic-based IEMs show comparable performance to traditional IEMs and offer some unique advantages. Long exposure to highly acidic solutions has a negligible impact on ED performance. Additionally, we have observed stable performance in the presence of strong oxidizing agents such as hydrogen peroxide. This stability is expected, as the ceramic backbone of these materials is already in a fully oxidized state. This data suggests ceramic membranes, made using sol-gel chemistry, could be an ideal solution for acidic and/or oxidizing wastewater streams from processes such as semiconductor manufacturing and mining.

Keywords: ion exchange, membrane, silane chemistry, nanostructure, wastewater

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Authors: Namratha Pai, K. Vasantharaj, K. Haribabu

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Our Team is developing an innovative cost effective biological technique to desulfurize crude oil. ’Sulphur’ is found to be present in crude oil samples from .05% - 13.95% and its elimination by industrial methods is expensive currently. Materials required :- Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestrius, potato dextrose agar, oxygen, Pyragallol and inert gas(nitrogen). Method adapted and proposed:- 1) Growth of bacteria studied, energy needs. 2) Compatibility with crude-oil. 3) Reaction rate of bacteria studied and optimized. 4) Reaction development by computer simulation. 5) Simulated work tested by building the reactor. The method being developed requires the use of bacteria Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestrius - an acidothermophilic heterotrophic, soil dwelling aerobic, Sulfur bacteria. The bacteria are fed to crude oil in a unique manner. Its coated onto potato dextrose agar beads, cultured for 24 hours (growth time coincides with time when it begins reacting) and fed into the reactor. The beads are to be replenished with O2 by passing them through a jacket around the reactor which has O2 supply. The O2 can’t be supplied directly as crude oil is inflammable, hence the process. Beads are made to move around based on the concept of fluidized bed reactor. By controlling the velocity of inert gas pumped , the beads are made to settle down when exhausted of O2. It is recycled through the jacket where O2 is re-fed and beads which were inside the ring substitute the exhausted ones. Crude-oil is maintained between 1 atm-270 M Pa pressure and 45°C treated with tartaric acid (Ph reason for bacteria growth) for optimum output. Bacteria being of oxidising type react with Sulphur in crude-oil and liberate out SO4^2- and no gas. SO4^2- is absorbed into H2O. NaOH is fed once reaction is complete and beads separated. Crude-oil is thus separated of SO4^2-, thereby Sulphur, tartaric acid and other acids which are separated out. Bio-corrosion is taken care of by internal wall painting (phenolepoxy paints). Earlier methods used included use of Pseudomonas and Rhodococcus species. They were found to be inefficient, time and energy consuming and reduce the fuel value as they fed on skeleton.

Keywords: alicyclobacillus acidoterrestrius, potato dextrose agar, fluidized bed reactor principle, reaction time for bacteria, compatibility with crude oil

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Authors: Alafara A. Baba, Kuranga I. Ayinla, Folahan A. Adekola, Rafiu B. Bale

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Due to increasing demands and diverse applications of copper oxide as pigment in ceramics, cuprammonium hydroxide solution for rayon, p-type semi-conductor, dry cell batteries production and as safety disposal of hazardous materials, a study on the hydrometallurgical operations involving leaching, solvent extraction and precipitation for the recovery of copper for producing high grade copper oxide from a Nigerian chalcopyrite ore in chloride media has been examined. At a particular set of experimental parameter with respect to acid concentration, reaction temperature and particle size, the leaching investigation showed that the ore dissolution increases with increasing acid concentration, temperature and decreasing particle diameter at a moderate stirring. The kinetics data has been analyzed and was found to follow diffusion control mechanism. At optimal conditions, the extent of ore dissolution reached 94.3%. The recovery of the total copper from the hydrochloric acid-leached chalcopyrite ore was undertaken by solvent extraction and precipitation techniques, prior to the beneficiation of the purified solution as copper oxide. The purification of the leach liquor was firstly done by precipitation of total iron and manganese using Ca(OH)2 and H2O2 as oxidizer at pH 3.5 and 4.25, respectively. An extraction efficiency of 97.3% total copper was obtained by 0.2 mol/L Dithizone in kerosene at 25±2ºC within 40 minutes, from which ≈98% Cu from loaded organic phase was successfully stripped by 0.1 mol/L HCl solution. The beneficiation of the recovered pure copper solution was carried out by crystallization through alkali addition followed by calcination at 600ºC to obtain high grade copper oxide (Tenorite, CuO: 05-0661). Finally, a simple hydrometallurgical scheme for the operational extraction procedure amenable for industrial utilization and economic sustainability was provided.

Keywords: chalcopyrite ore, Nigeria, copper, copper oxide, solvent extraction

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Authors: Ben Haines, Li Bai

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Patch based reconstruction methods have been and still are one of the top performing approaches to 3D reconstruction to date. Their local approach to refining the position and orientation of a patch, free of global minimisation and independent of surface smoothness, make patch based methods extremely powerful in recovering fine grained detail of an objects surface. However, patch based approaches still fail to faithfully reconstruct textureless or highly occluded surface regions thus though performing well under lab conditions, deteriorate in industrial or real world situations. They are also computationally expensive. Current patch based methods generate point clouds with holes in texturesless or occluded regions that require expensive energy minimisation techniques to fill and interpolate a high fidelity reconstruction. Such shortcomings hinder the adaptation of the methods for industrial applications where object surfaces are often highly textureless and the speed of reconstruction is an important factor. This paper presents on-going work towards a multi-resolution approach to address the problems, utilizing particle swarm optimisation to reconstruct high fidelity geometry, and increasing robustness to textureless features through an adapted approach to the normalised cross correlation. The work also aims to speed up the reconstruction using advances in GPU technologies and remove the need for costly initialization and expansion. Through the combination of these enhancements, it is the intention of this work to create denser patch clouds even in textureless regions within a reasonable time. Initial results show the potential of such an approach to construct denser point clouds with a comparable accuracy to that of the current top-performing algorithms.

Keywords: 3D reconstruction, multiview stereo, particle swarm optimisation, photo consistency

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Authors: Raghavi Janaswamy, Saraswathi K. Vasudev

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Music is ubiquitous in human lives. Ever since the fetus hears the sound inside the mother’s womb and later upon birth, the baby experiences alluring sounds, the curiosity of learning emanates and evokes exploration. Music is an education than mere entertainment. The intricate balance between music, education, and entertainment has well been recognized by the scientific community and is being explored as a viable tool to understand and improve human cognition. There are seven basic swaras (notes) Sa, Ri, Ga, Ma, Pa, Da, and Ni in the Carnatic music system that are analogous to C, D, E, F, G, A, and B of the western system. The Carnatic music builds on the conscious use of microtones, gamakams (oscillation), and rendering styles that evolved over centuries and established its stance. The complex but erudite raga system has been designed with elaborate experiments on srutis (musical sounds) and human perception abilities. In parallel, ‘rasa’- the emotions evoked by certain srutis and hence the ragas been solidified along with the power of language in combination with the musical sounds. The Carnatic music branches out as Kalpita sangeetam (pre-composed music) and Manodharma sangeetam (improvised music). This article explores the Manodharma sangeetam and its subdivisions such as raga alapana, swara kalpana, neraval, and ragam-tanam-pallavi (RTP). The intrinsic mathematical strategies in it’s practice methods toward improvising the music have been explored in detail with concert examples. The techniques on swara weaving for swara kalpana rendering and methods on the alapana development are also discussed at length with an emphasis on the impact on the human cognitive abilities. The articulation of the outlined conscious practice methods not only helps to leave a long-lasting melodic impression on the listeners but also onsets cognitive developments.

Keywords: Carnatic, Manodharmam, music cognition, Alapana

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Authors: Oluwafemi Samuel Oyamakin

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The forest in Nigeria is currently estimated to extend to around 9.6 million hectares, but used to expand over central and southern Nigeria decades ago. The forest estate is shrinking due to long-term human exploitation for agricultural development, fuel wood demand, uncontrolled forest harvesting and urbanization, amongst other factors, compounded by population growth in rural areas. Nigeria has lost more than 50% of its forest cover since 1990 and currently less than 10% of the country is forested. The current deforestation rate is estimated at 3.7%, which is one of the highest in the world. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation plus conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks constituted what is referred to as REDD+. This study evaluated some of the existing way of computing carbon stocks using eight indigenous tree species like Mansonia, Shorea, Bombax, Terminalia superba, Khaya grandifolia, Khaya senegalenses, Pines and Gmelina arborea. While these components are the essential elements of REDD+ programme, they can be brought under a broader framework of systems analysis designed to arrive at optimal solutions for future predictions through statistical distribution pattern of carbon sequestrated by various species of tree. Available data on height and diameter of trees in Ibadan were studied and their respective potentials of carbon sequestration level were assessed and subjected to tests so as to determine the best statistical distribution that would describe the carbon sequestration pattern of trees. The result of this study suggests a reasonable statistical distribution for carbons sequestered in simulation studies and hence, allow planners and government in determining resources forecast for sustainable development especially where experiments with real-life systems are infeasible. Sustainable management of forest can then be achieved by projecting future condition of forests under different management regimes thereby supporting conservation and REDD+ programmes in Nigeria.

Keywords: REDD+, carbon, climate change, height and diameter

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Tekle Olbamo, Tegegn Tesfaye, Dikaso Unbushe, Belete Jorga

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Bovine trypanosomosis is a haemoprotozoan parasitic disease, mostly transmitted by the tsetse fly (Glossina species) and poses significant losses to the livestock industry in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas. Therefore, the current study was aimed to determine the prevalence of bovine trypanosomosis and its vectorial density in some selected tsetse suppression and non-tsetse suppression areas of South Omo Zonefrom December 2018- November 2019. Dark phase contrast buffy coat, hematocrit techniques, and thin blood smear method were used for determination of prevalence and packed cell volume of trypanosomosis infection, respectively. For entomological investigation, 96 NGU traps were deployed (64 traps in tsetse suppression areas, 32 traps in tsetse non-suppression areas) in vector breeding areas. The overall prevalence of bovine trypanosomosis was 11.05% (142/1284), and overall seasonal prevalence of disease was 14.33% (92/642) and 7.78% (50/642) for dry and wet seasons, respectively. There was a statistically significant difference (P <0.05) in disease prevalence between the two seasons. Trypanosomacongolensewas the dominant parasite species; 80% and 71.64%, followed by Trypanosomavivax. Overall mean packed cell volume indicated parasitaemic animals (23.57±3.13) had significantly lower PCV than aparasitaemic animals (27.80±4.95), and animals examined during dry season (26.22±4.37) had lower mean PCV than animals examined during wet season with the significant association. Entomological study result revealed a total of 2.64 F/T/D and 2.03 F/T/D respectively from tsetse suppression areas and tsetse non-suppression areas during dry season and 0.42 F/T/D and 0.56 F/T/D during the wet season. Glossinapallidipes was the only cyclical vectors collected and identified from current study areas along with numerous mechanical vectors of genus Tabanus, Stomoxys, and Haematopota. Therefore integrated and safe control and prevention effort should be engaged to uphold cattle production and productivity in the area.

Keywords: bovine trypanosomiasis, South Omo, tsetse fly density, epidemiological study

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Abdulsalam A. Al-Tamimi, Chris Peach, Paulo Rui Fernandes, Paulo J. Bartolo

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Bone fixation implants currently used to treat traumatic fractured bones and to promote fracture healing are built with biocompatible metallic materials such as stainless steel, cobalt chromium and titanium and its alloys (e.g., CoCrMo and Ti6Al4V). The noticeable stiffness mismatch between current metallic implants and host bone associates with negative outcomes such as stress shielding which causes bone loss and implant loosening leading to deficient fracture treatment. This paper, part of a major research program to design the next generation of bone fixation implants, describes the combined use of three-dimensional (3D) topology optimization (TO) and additive manufacturing powder bed technology (Electron Beam Melting) to redesign and fabricate the plates based on the current standard one (i.e., locking compression plate). Topology optimization is applied with an objective function to maximize the stiffness and constraint by volume reductions (i.e., 25-75%) in order to obtain optimized implant designs with reduced stress shielding phenomenon, under different boundary conditions (i.e., tension, bending, torsion and combined loads). The stiffness of the original and optimised plates are assessed through a finite-element study. The TO results showed actual reduction in the stiffness for most of the plates due to the critical values of volume reduction. Additionally, the optimized plates fabricated using powder bed techniques proved that the integration between the TO and additive manufacturing presents the capability of producing stiff reduced plates with acceptable tolerances.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, locking compression plate, finite element, topology optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: D. Sigirli

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The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a commonly used statistical tool for evaluating the diagnostic performance of screening and diagnostic test with continuous or ordinal scale results which aims to predict the presence or absence probability of a condition, usually a disease. When the test results were measured as numeric values, sensitivity and specificity can be computed across all possible threshold values which discriminate the subjects as diseased and non-diseased. There are infinite numbers of possible decision thresholds along the continuum of the test results. The ROC curve presents the trade-off between sensitivity and the 1-specificity as the threshold changes. The empirical ROC curve which is a non-parametric estimator of the ROC curve is robust and it represents data accurately. However, especially for small sample sizes, it has a problem of variability and as it is a step function there can be different false positive rates for a true positive rate value and vice versa. Besides, the estimated ROC curve being in a jagged form, since the true ROC curve is a smooth curve, it underestimates the true ROC curve. Since the true ROC curve is assumed to be smooth, several smoothing methods have been explored to smooth a ROC curve. These include using kernel estimates, using log-concave densities, to fit parameters for the specified density function to the data with the maximum-likelihood fitting of univariate distributions or to create a probability distribution by fitting the specified distribution to the data nd using smooth versions of the empirical distribution functions. In the present paper, we aimed to propose a smooth ROC curve estimation based on the boundary corrected kernel function and to compare the performances of ROC curve smoothing methods for the diagnostic test results coming from different distributions in different sample sizes. We performed simulation study to compare the performances of different methods for different scenarios with 1000 repetitions. It is seen that the performance of the proposed method was typically better than that of the empirical ROC curve and only slightly worse compared to the binormal model when in fact the underlying samples were generated from the normal distribution.

Keywords: empirical estimator, kernel function, smoothing, receiver operating characteristic curve

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Authors: Shimaa Mahmoud Ali Ahmed, Boshra Tawfek El-Shreef

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Sustainable development has become an important concern worldwide, and climate change has become a global threat. Some of these affect how we approach environmental issues — and how we should approach them. Environmental aspects have an important impact on the built environment, that’s why knowledge about Green Building and Green Construction become a vital dimension of urban sustainable development to face the challenges of climate change. There are several levels of green buildings, from energy-efficient lighting to 100% eco-friendly construction; the concept of green buildings in Egypt is still a rare occurrence, with the concept being relatively new to the market. There are several projects on the ground that currently employing sustainable and green solutions to some extent, some of them achieve a limit of success and others fail to employ the new solutions. The market and the cost as well, are great factors. From the last century, green architecture and environmental sustainability become a famous trend that all the researchers like to follow. Nowadays, the trend towards green has shifted to housing and real estate projects. While the environmental aspects are the key to achieve green buildings, the economic benefits, and the market forces are considered as big challenges. The paper assumes that some appropriate environmental treatments could be added to the applied prototype of the governmental social housing projects in Egypt to achieve better environmental solutions. The aim of the research is to get housing projects in Egypt closer to the track of sustainable and green buildings, through making a local future proposal to be integrated into the current policies. The proposed model is based upon adding some appropriate, cheap environmental modifications to the prototype of the Ministry of Housing, Infrastructure, and New Urban Communities. The research is based on an analytical, comparative analytical, and inductive approach to study and analyze the housing projects in Egypt and the possibilities of integrating green techniques into it.

Keywords: green buildings, urban sustainability, housing projects, sustainable development goals, Egypt 2030

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: K. Swapna

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A Series of Alkali-Earth Boro Tellurite (AEBT) glasses doped with different concentrations of Dy³⁺ ions have been prepared by using melt quenching technique and characterized through spectroscopic techniques such as optical absorption, excitation, emission and photoluminescence decay to understand their utility in optoelectronic devices such as lasers and white light emitting diodes (w-LEDs). Raman spectrum recorded for an undoped glass is used to measure the phonon energy of the host glass and various functional groups present in the host glass (AEBT). The intensities of the electronic transitions and the ligand environment around the Dy³⁺ ions were studied by applying Judd-Ofelt (J-O) theory to the recorded absorption spectra of the glasses. The evaluated J-O parameters are subsequently used to measure various radiative parameters such as transition probability (AR), radiative branching ratio (βR) and radiative lifetimes (τR) for the prominent fluorescent levels of Dy³⁺ ions in the as-prepared glasses. The luminescence spectra recorded at 387 nm excitation show three emission transitions (⁴F9/2→⁶H15/2 (blue), ⁴F9/2→⁶H13/2 (yellow) and ⁴F9/2 → ⁶H11/2 (red)) of which the yellow transition observed at 575 nm is found to be highly intense. The experimental branching ratio (βexp) and stimulated emission crosssection (σse) were measured from luminescence spectra. The experimental lifetimes (τexp) measured from the decay spectral profiles are combined with radiative lifetimes to measure quantum efficiencies of the as-prepared glasses. The yellow to blue intensity ratios and chromaticity color coordinates are found to vary with Dy³⁺ ion concentrations. The aforementioned results reveal that these glasses are aptly suitable for w-LEDs and laser devices.

Keywords: glasses, J-O parameters, photoluminescence, I-H model

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Authors: Linda Boussaid, Farid Brahim Belaribi

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The physico-chemical properties of liquid materials in the industrial field, in general, and in that of the chemical industries, in particular, constitutes a prerequisite for the design of equipment, for the resolution of specific problems (related to the techniques of purification and separation, at risk in the transport of certain materials, etc.) and, therefore, at the production stage. Chloroalkanes, ethers constitute three chemical families having an industrial, theoretical and environmental interest. For example, these compounds are used in various applications in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, they contribute to the particular thermodynamic behavior (deviation from ideality, association, etc.) of certain mixtures which constitute a severe test for predictive theoretical models. Finally, due to the degradation of the environment in the world, a renewed interest is observed for ethers, because some of their physicochemical properties could contribute to lower pollution (ethers would be used as additives in aqueous fuels.). This work is a thermodynamic, experimental and theoretical study of the volumetric properties of liquid binary systems formed from compounds belonging to the chemical families of chloroalkanes, ethers, having an industrial, theoretical and environmental interest. Experimental determination of the densities and excess volumes of the systems studied, at different temperatures in the interval [278.15-333.15] K and at atmospheric pressure, using an AntonPaar vibrating tube densitometer of the DMA5000 type. This contribution of experimental data, on the volumetric properties of the binary liquid mixtures of 1,2-dichloroethane with an ether, supplemented by an application of the theoretical model of Prigogine-Flory-Patterson PFP, will probably contribute to the enrichment of the thermodynamic database and the further development of the theory of Flory in its Prigogine-Flory-Patterson (PFP) version, for a better understanding of the thermodynamic behavior of these liquid binary mixtures

Keywords: prigogine-flory-patterson (pfp), propriétés volumétrique , volume d’excés, ethers

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Authors: Olajumoke Adetoun Ojeleye

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The study assessed the safety culture, mindfulness and safe behaviors of students residing in the halls of residence of Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile Ife, Nigeria. The objectives of the study were to assess the level of safety mindfulness of students residing in the halls of residence of OAU, examine their safety culture and establish whether these students are involved in unsafe practices. The study employed a cross-sectional research design and instrument used for data collection was a self-structured, self-administered questionnaire. The questionnaire was tested for validity and reliability with its reliability coefficient at 0.71 before being used for data collection. Respondents were selected by multi-stage sampling technique and the sample size was 530. Data collection took 2 weeks and analysed using descriptive statistical techniques. Results showed that about half of the respondents’ population (49.8%) was between the ages of 20-24 years. There were more males (56.2%) than females (43.8%). Although data demonstrated that majority (91.7%) of the respondents are highly safety minded and the safety culture of an equally high proportion (83.4%) was adjudged fair, a lot of improvement is needed in the area of alerting or informing management of impending dangers and studying the hall handbook to internalize its contents. The study further showed that only 43.6% of respondents had good safety practices and behaviors and majority (56.4%) had fair safety practices and behaviors. One accidental discovery of the study is the finding that not a few of the students squat their counterparts. The study recommended the establishment of clearly written out complaint procedure that is accessible and available to all hall residents, building more hostels with adequate facilities to address the issue of overcrowding and also putting systems in place in order to encourage residents to report incidences/accidents.

Keywords: safe behaviours, safety culture, safety mindfulness, student

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

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Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: average run length (ARL), bernoulli cusum (BC) chart, beta binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution, clinical indicator (CI), healthcare organization (HCO), highest posterior density (HPD) interval

Procedia PDF Downloads 194