Search results for: new prediction model

Authors: Redouane Lombarkia

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To apply a new material model developed and validated for plain weave fabric CFRP composites usually used in stanchions in sub-cargo section in aircrafts. This work deals with the development of a numerical model of the fuselage section of commercial aircraft based on the pure explicit finite element method FEM within Abaqus/Explicit commercial code. The aim of this work is the evaluation of the energy absorption capabilities of a full-scale composite fuselage section, including sub-cargo stanchions, Drop tests were carried out from a free fall height of about 5 m and impact velocity of about 6 m∕s. To asses, the prediction efficiency of the proposed numerical modeling procedure, a comparison with literature existed experimental results was performed. We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methodology to well capture crash damage mechanisms compared to experimental results

Keywords: crashworthiness, fuselage section, finite elements method (FEM), stanchions, specific energy absorption SEA

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Authors: Bharatendra Rai

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Predictive data analysis and modeling involving machine learning techniques become challenging in presence of too many explanatory variables or features. Presence of too many features in machine learning is known to not only cause algorithms to slow down, but they can also lead to decrease in model prediction accuracy. This study involves housing dataset with 79 quantitative and qualitative features that describe various aspects people consider while buying a new house. Boruta algorithm that supports feature selection using a wrapper approach build around random forest is used in this study. This feature selection process leads to 49 confirmed features which are then used for developing predictive random forest models. The study also explores five different data partitioning ratios and their impact on model accuracy are captured using coefficient of determination (r-square) and root mean square error (rsme).

Keywords: housing data, feature selection, random forest, Boruta algorithm, root mean square error

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Authors: Joonas Pääkkönen

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In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

Keywords: Fenton-Wilkinson approximation, German tank problem, log-normal distribution, order statistics, ordinal regression, orienteering, sports analytics, sports modeling

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: Tobias Strübing, Fatemeh Ziaeetabar

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Humans usually manipulate objects with their hands. To represent these actions in a simple and understandable way, we need to use a semantic framework. For this purpose, the Semantic Event Chain (SEC) method has already been presented which is done by consideration of touching and non-touching relations between manipulated objects in a scene. This method was improved by a computational model, the so-called enriched Semantic Event Chain (eSEC), which incorporates the information of static (e.g. top, bottom) and dynamic spatial relations (e.g. moving apart, getting closer) between objects in an action scene. This leads to a better action prediction as well as the ability to distinguish between more actions. Each eSEC manipulation descriptor is a huge matrix with thirty rows and a massive set of the spatial relations between each pair of manipulated objects. The current eSEC framework has so far only been used in the category of manipulation actions, which eventually involve two hands. Here, we would like to extend this approach to a whole body action descriptor and make a conjoint activity representation structure. For this purpose, we need to do a statistical analysis to modify the current eSEC by summarizing while preserving its features, and introduce a new version called Enhanced eSEC or (e2SEC). This summarization can be done from two points of the view: 1) reducing the number of rows in an eSEC matrix, 2) shrinking the set of possible semantic spatial relations. To achieve these, we computed the importance of each matrix row in an statistical way, to see if it is possible to remove a particular one while all manipulations are still distinguishable from each other. On the other hand, we examined which semantic spatial relations can be merged without compromising the unity of the predefined manipulation actions. Therefore by performing the above analyses, we made the new e2SEC framework which has 20% fewer rows, 16.7% less static spatial and 11.1% less dynamic spatial relations. This simplification, while preserving the salient features of a semantic structure in representing actions, has a tremendous impact on the recognition and prediction of complex actions, as well as the interactions between humans and robots. It also creates a comprehensive platform to integrate with the body limbs descriptors and dramatically increases system performance, especially in complex real time applications such as human-robot interaction prediction.

Keywords: enriched semantic event chain, semantic action representation, spatial relations, statistical analysis

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Authors: Ju-young Hwang, Hyo-Gyoung Kwak, Hong Jae Yim

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This paper introduces a numerical analysis method for reinforced-concrete (RC) structures exposed to fire and compares the result with experimental results. The proposed analysis method for RC structure under the high temperature consists of two procedures. First step is to decide the temperature distribution across the section through the heat transfer analysis by using the time-temperature curve. After determination of the temperature distribution, the nonlinear analysis is followed. By considering material and geometrical non-linearity with the temperature distribution, nonlinear analysis predicts the behavior of RC structure under the fire by the exposed time. The proposed method is validated by the comparison with the experimental results. Finally, Prediction model to describe the status of after-cooling concrete can also be introduced based on the results of additional experiment. The product of this study is expected to be embedded for smart structure monitoring system against fire in u-City.

Keywords: RC structures, heat transfer analysis, nonlinear analysis, after-cooling concrete model

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Authors: O. B. Iskender, K. V. Ling, V. Dubanchet, L. Simonini

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This paper discusses the recent advances and future prospects of spacecraft position and attitude control using Model Predictive Control (MPC). First, the challenges of the space missions are summarized, in particular, taking into account the errors, uncertainties, and constraints imposed by the mission, spacecraft and, onboard processing capabilities. The summary of space mission errors and uncertainties provided in categories; initial condition errors, unmodeled disturbances, sensor, and actuator errors. These previous constraints are classified into two categories: physical and geometric constraints. Last, real-time implementation capability is discussed regarding the required computation time and the impact of sensor and actuator errors based on the Hardware-In-The-Loop (HIL) experiments. The rationales behind the scenarios’ are also presented in the scope of space applications as formation flying, attitude control, rendezvous and docking, rover steering, and precision landing. The objectives of these missions are explained, and the generic constrained MPC problem formulations are summarized. Three key design elements used in MPC design: the prediction model, the constraints formulation and the objective cost function are discussed. The prediction models can be linear time invariant or time varying depending on the geometry of the orbit, whether it is circular or elliptic. The constraints can be given as linear inequalities for input or output constraints, which can be written in the same form. Moreover, the recent convexification techniques for the non-convex geometrical constraints (i.e., plume impingement, Field-of-View (FOV)) are presented in detail. Next, different objectives are provided in a mathematical framework and explained accordingly. Thirdly, because MPC implementation relies on finding in real-time the solution to constrained optimization problems, computational aspects are also examined. In particular, high-speed implementation capabilities and HIL challenges are presented towards representative space avionics. This covers an analysis of future space processors as well as the requirements of sensors and actuators on the HIL experiments outputs. The HIL tests are investigated for kinematic and dynamic tests where robotic arms and floating robots are used respectively. Eventually, the proposed algorithms and experimental setups are introduced and compared with the authors' previous work and future plans. The paper concludes with a conjecture that MPC paradigm is a promising framework at the crossroads of space applications while could be further advanced based on the challenges mentioned throughout the paper and the unaddressed gap.

Keywords: convex optimization, model predictive control, rendezvous and docking, spacecraft autonomy

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Authors: Benjamin Leiby, Darryl Ahner

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This study demonstrates an alternative stochastic imputation approach for large datasets when preferred commercial packages struggle to iterate due to numerical problems. A large country conflict dataset motivates the search to impute missing values well over a common threshold of 20% missingness. The methodology capitalizes on correlation while using model residuals to provide the uncertainty in estimating unknown values. Examination of the methodology provides insight toward choosing linear or nonlinear modeling terms. Static tolerances common in most packages are replaced with tailorable tolerances that exploit residuals to fit each data element. The methodology evaluation includes observing computation time, model fit, and the comparison of known values to replaced values created through imputation. Overall, the country conflict dataset illustrates promise with modeling first-order interactions while presenting a need for further refinement that mimics predictive mean matching.

Keywords: correlation, country conflict, imputation, stochastic regression

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Authors: Shauma L. Tamba

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This study examined whether morality is the most important aspect in actual behavior. The prediction was that people tend to behave in line with moral (as compared to competence) norms, especially when such norms are presented by their ingroup. The actual behavior that was tested was support for a military intervention without a mandate from the UN. In addition, this study also examined whether identification with the ingroup and religion moderated the effect of group and norm on support for the norm that was prescribed by their ingroup. The prediction was that those who identified themselves higher with the ingroup moral would show a higher support for the norm. Furthermore, the prediction was also that those who have religion would show a higher support for the norm in the ingroup moral rather than competence. In an online survey, participants were asked to read a scenario in which a military intervention without a mandate was framed as either the moral (but stupid) or smart (but immoral) thing to do by members of their own (ingroup) or another (outgroup) society. This study found that when people identified themselves with the smart (but immoral) norm, they showed a higher support for the norm. However, when people identified themselves with the moral (but stupid) norm, they tend to show a lesser support towards the norm. Most of the results in the study did not support the predictions. Possible explanations and implications are discussed.

Keywords: morality, competence, ingroup identification, religion, group norm

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Authors: Nima Dastanboo, Xiao-Qing Li, Hamed Gharibdoost

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The purpose of this study is to investigate about the geological properties ahead of a tunnel face with using Electrical Resistivity Tomography ERT and Tunnel Seismic Prediction TSP303 methods. In deep tunnels with hydro-geological conditions, it is important to study the geological structures of the region before excavating tunnels. Otherwise, it would lead to unexpected accidents that impose serious damage to the project. For constructing Nosoud tunnel in west of Iran, the ERT and TSP303 methods are employed to predict the geological conditions dynamically during the excavation. In this paper, based on the engineering background of Nosoud tunnel, the important results of applying these methods are discussed. This work demonstrates seismic method and electrical tomography as two geophysical techniques that are able to detect a tunnel. The results of these two methods were being in agreement with each other but the results of TSP303 are more accurate and quality. In this case, the TSP 303 method was a useful tool for predicting unstable geological structures ahead of the tunnel face during excavation. Thus, using another geophysical method together with TSP303 could be helpful as a decision support in excavating, especially in complicated geological conditions.

Keywords: tunnel seismic prediction (TSP303), electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), seismic wave, velocity analysis, low-velocity zones

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Authors: Go Bong Choi, Shin Je Lee, Sung Jin Yoo, Gibaek Lee, Jong Min Lee

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In South Korea, it is difficult to obtain data for statistical pipe assessment. In this paper, to address these issues, we find that various statistical model presented before is how data mixed with noise and are whether apply in South Korea. Three major type of model is studied and if data is presented in the paper, we add noise to data, which affects how model response changes. Moreover, we generate data from model in paper and analyse effect of noise. From this we can find robustness and applicability in Korea of each model.

Keywords: proportional hazard model, survival model, water main deterioration, ecological sciences

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Authors: Debesh R. Roy

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The fundamental issue in understanding the origin and growth mechanism of nanomaterials, from a fundamental unit is a big challenging problem to the scientists. Recently, an immense attention is generated to the researchers for prediction of exceptionally stable atomic cluster units as the building units for future smart materials. The present study is a systematic investigation on the stability and electronic properties of a series of bimetallic (semiconductor-alkaline earth) clusters, viz., BxMg3 (x=1-5) is performed, in search for exceptional and/ or unusual stable motifs. A very popular hybrid exchange-correlation functional, B3LYP as proposed by A. D. Becke along with a higher basis set, viz., 6-31+G[d,p] is employed for this purpose under the density functional formalism. The magic stability among the concerned clusters is explained using the jellium model. It is evident from the present study that the magic stability of B4Mg3 cluster arises due to the jellium shell closure.

Keywords: atomic clusters, density functional theory, jellium model, magic clusters, smart nanomaterials

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Authors: Tugba Bayoglu

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Aerodynamic parameter estimation is very crucial in missile design phase, since accurate high fidelity aerodynamic model is required for designing high performance and robust control system, developing high fidelity flight simulations and verification of computational and wind tunnel test results. However, in literature, there is not enough missile aerodynamic parameter identification study for three main reasons: (1) most air to air missiles cannot fly with constant speed, (2) missile flight test number and flight duration are much less than that of fixed wing aircraft, (3) variation of the missile aerodynamic parameters with respect to Mach number is higher than that of fixed wing aircraft. In addition to these challenges, identification of aerodynamic parameters for high wind angles by using classical estimation techniques brings another difficulty in the estimation process. The reason for this, most of the estimation techniques require employing polynomials or splines to model the behavior of the aerodynamics. However, for the missiles with a large variation of aerodynamic parameters with respect to flight variables, the order of the proposed model increases, which brings computational burden and complexity. Therefore, in this study, it is aimed to solve nonlinear aerodynamic parameter identification problem for a supersonic air to air missile by using Artificial Neural Networks. The method proposed will be tested by using simulated data which will be generated with a six degree of freedom missile model, involving a nonlinear aerodynamic database. The data will be corrupted by adding noise to the measurement model. Then, by using the flight variables and measurements, the parameters will be estimated. Finally, the prediction accuracy will be investigated.

Keywords: air to air missile, artificial neural networks, open loop simulation, parameter identification

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Authors: Aneta Oblouková, Eva Vítková

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The article deals with the issue of water and sewerage charge rate prices in the Czech Republic. The research is specifically focused on the analysis of the development of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rate in the Czech Republic in the years 1994-2021 and on the validation of the chosen methodology relevant for the prediction of the development of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rate in the Czech Republic. The research is based on data collection. The data for this research was obtained from the Czech Statistical Office. The aim of the paper is to validate the relevance of the mathematical linear trend estimate technique for the calculation of the predicted average prices of water and sewerage charge rates. The real values of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rates in the Czech Republic in the years 1994-2018 were obtained from the Czech Statistical Office and were converted into a mathematical equation. The same type of real data was obtained from the Czech Statistical Office for the years 2019-2021. Prediction of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rates in the Czech Republic in the years 2019-2021 were also calculated using a chosen method -a linear trend estimation technique. The values obtained from the Czech Statistical Office and the values calculated using the chosen methodology were subsequently compared. The research result is a validation of the chosen mathematical technique to be a suitable technique for this research.

Keywords: Czech Republic, linear trend estimation, price prediction, water and sewerage charge rate

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Authors: Nikolaos Simantiris, Markos Avlonitis

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This work builds a simulation platform, modeling the spatial diffusion of the invasive species Callinectes sapidus (blue crab) as a random walk, incorporating also generation, fatality, and fishing rates modeling the time evolution of its population. Antinioti lagoon in West Greece was used as a testbed for applying the simulation model. Field measurements from June 2020 to June 2021 on the lagoon’s setting, bathymetry, and blue crab juveniles provided the initial population simulation of blue crabs, as well as biological parameters from the current literature were used to calibrate simulation parameters. The scope of this study is to render the authors able to predict the evolution of the blue crab population in confined environments of the Ionian Islands region in West Greece. The first result of the simulation experiments shows the possibility for a robust prediction for blue crab population evolution in the Antinioti lagoon.

Keywords: antinioti lagoon, blue crab, stochastic simulation, random walk

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Authors: Umit Duru

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The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested for prediction of water balance and sediment yield in the Ankara gauged basin, Turkey. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate the performance and applicability of the SWAT in this region of Turkey. Thirteen years of monthly stream flow, and suspended sediment, data were used for calibration and validation. This research assessed model performance based on differences between observed and predicted suspended sediment yield during calibration (1987-1996) and validation (1982-1984) periods. Statistical comparisons of suspended sediment produced values for NSE (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency), RE (relative error), and R² (coefficient of determination), of 0.81, -1.55, and 0.93, respectively, during the calibration period, and NSE, RE (%), and R² of 0.77, -2.61, and 0.87, respectively, during the validation period. Based on the analyses, SWAT satisfactorily simulated observed hydrology and sediment yields and can be used as a tool in decision making for water resources planning and management in the basin.

Keywords: calibration, GIS, sediment yield, SWAT, validation

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Authors: Baladitya Swaika, Rahul Khatry

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Computer Adaptive Tests (CATs) is one of the most efficient ways for testing the cognitive abilities of students. CATs are based on Item Response Theory (IRT) which is based on item selection and ability estimation using statistical methods of maximum information selection/selection from posterior and maximum-likelihood (ML)/maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimators respectively. This study aims at combining both classical and Bayesian approaches to IRT to create a dataset which is then fed to a neural network which automates the process of ability estimation and then comparing it to traditional CAT models designed using IRT. This study uses python as the base coding language, pymc for statistical modelling of the IRT and scikit-learn for neural network implementations. On creation of the model and on comparison, it is found that the Neural Network based model performs 7-10% worse than the IRT model for score estimations. Although performing poorly, compared to the IRT model, the neural network model can be beneficially used in back-ends for reducing time complexity as the IRT model would have to re-calculate the ability every-time it gets a request whereas the prediction from a neural network could be done in a single step for an existing trained Regressor. This study also proposes a new kind of framework whereby the neural network model could be used to incorporate feature sets, other than the normal IRT feature set and use a neural network’s capacity of learning unknown functions to give rise to better CAT models. Categorical features like test type, etc. could be learnt and incorporated in IRT functions with the help of techniques like logistic regression and can be used to learn functions and expressed as models which may not be trivial to be expressed via equations. This kind of a framework, when implemented would be highly advantageous in psychometrics and cognitive assessments. This study gives a brief overview as to how neural networks can be used in adaptive testing, not only by reducing time-complexity but also by being able to incorporate newer and better datasets which would eventually lead to higher quality testing.

Keywords: computer adaptive tests, item response theory, machine learning, neural networks

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Authors: Goodness Onwuka, Khaled Abou-El-Hossein

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Borosilicate-crown (BK7) glass has found broad application in the optic and automotive industries and the growing demands for nanometric surface finishes is becoming a necessity in such applications. Thus, it has become paramount to optimize the parameters influencing the surface roughness of this precision lens. The research was carried out on a 4-axes Nanoform 250 precision lathe machine with an ultra-high precision grinding spindle. The experiment varied the machining parameters of feed rate, wheel speed and depth of cut at three levels for different combinations using Box Behnken design of experiment and the resulting surface roughness values were measured using a Taylor Hobson Dimension XL optical profiler. Acoustic emission monitoring technique was applied at a high sampling rate to monitor the machining process while further signal processing and feature extraction methods were implemented to generate the input to a neural network algorithm. This paper highlights the training and development of a back propagation neural network prediction algorithm through careful selection of parameters and the result show a better classification accuracy when compared to a previously developed response surface model with very similar machining parameters. Hence artificial neural network algorithms provide better surface roughness prediction accuracy in the ultra-high precision grinding of BK7 glass.

Keywords: acoustic emission technique, artificial neural network, surface roughness, ultra-high precision grinding

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Authors: Naduni Ranasinghe

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E-learning environments are getting more popular than any other due to the impact of COVID19. Even though e-learning is one of the best solutions for the teaching-learning process in the academic process, it’s not without major challenges. Nowadays, machine learning approaches are utilized in the analysis of how behavioral factors lead to better adoption and how they related to better performance of the students in eLearning environments. During the pandemic, we realized the academic process in the eLearning approach had a major issue, especially for the performance of the students. Therefore, an approach that investigates student behaviors in eLearning environments using a data-intensive machine learning approach is appreciated. A hybrid approach was used to understand how each previously told variables are related to the other. A more quantitative approach was used referred to literature to understand the weights of each factor for adoption and in terms of performance. The data set was collected from previously done research to help the training and testing process in ML. Special attention was made to incorporating different dimensionality of the data to understand the dependency levels of each. Five independent variables out of twelve variables were chosen based on their impact on the dependent variable, and by considering the descriptive statistics, out of three models developed (Random Forest classifier, SVM, and Decision tree classifier), random forest Classifier (Accuracy – 0.8542) gave the highest value for accuracy. Overall, this work met its goals of improving student performance by identifying students who are at-risk and dropout, emphasizing the necessity of using both static and dynamic data.

Keywords: academic performance prediction, e learning, learning analytics, machine learning, predictive model

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Authors: ShuJiang Jiang

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The interaction of turbulence with airfoil is an important noise source in many engineering fields, including helicopters, turbofan, and contra-rotating open rotor engines, where turbulence generated in the wake of upstream blades interacts with the leading edge of downstream blades and produces aerodynamic noise. One approach to study turbulence-airfoil interaction noise is to model the oncoming turbulence as harmonic gusts. A compact noise source produces a dipole-like sound directivity pattern. However, when the acoustic wavelength is much smaller than the airfoil chord length, the airfoil needs to be treated as a non-compact source, and the gust-airfoil interaction becomes more complicated and results in multiple lobes generated in the radiated sound directivity. Capturing the short acoustic wavelength is a challenge for numerical simulations. In this work, simulations are performed for gust-airfoil interaction at different Mach numbers, using a high-fidelity direct Computational AeroAcoustic (CAA) approach based on a spectral/hp element method, verified by a CAA benchmark case. It is found that the squared sound pressure varies approximately as the 5th power of Mach number, which changes slightly with the observer location. This scaling law can give a better sound prediction than the flat-plate theory for thicker airfoils. Besides, another prediction method, based on the flat-plate theory and CAA simulation, has been proposed to give better predictions than the scaling law for thicker airfoils.

Keywords: aeroacoustics, gust-airfoil interaction, CFD, CAA

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Authors: Sadia Ilyas, Hyunjung Kim, Rajiv R. Srivastava

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Current work has attempted to establish the linkages between circular bio-economy and recycling of copper and gold from urban mine by applying microbial activities instead of the smelter and chemical technologies. Thereafter, based on the potential of microbial approaches and research hypothesis, the structural model has been tested for a significance level of 99%, which is supported by the corresponding standardization co-efficient values. A prediction model applied to determine the recycling impact on circular bio-economy indicates to re-circulate 51,833 tons of copper and 58 tons of gold by 2030 for the production of virgin metals/raw-materials, while recycling rate of the accumulated e-waste remains to be 20%. This restoration volume of copper and gold through the microbial activities corresponds to mitigate 174 million kg CO₂ emissions and 24 million m³ water consumption if compared with the primary production activities. The study potentially opens a new window for environmentally-friendly biotechnological recycling of e-waste urban mine under the umbrella concept of circular bio-economy.

Keywords: urban mining, biobleaching, circular bio-economy, environmental impact

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Authors: Hesham Abd Elkhalek, Sherif M. Hafez, Yasser M. El Fahham

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Allocating limited budget to maintain bridge networks and selecting effective maintenance strategies for each bridge represent challenging tasks for maintenance managers and decision makers. In Egypt, bridges are continuously deteriorating. In many cases, maintenance works are performed due to user complaints. The objective of this paper is to develop a practical and reliable framework to manage the maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MR&R) activities of Bridges network considering performance and budget limits. The model solves an optimization problem that maximizes the average condition of the entire network given the limited available budget using Genetic Algorithm (GA). The framework contains bridge inventory, condition assessment, repair cost calculation, deterioration prediction, and maintenance optimization. The developed model takes into account multiple parameters including serviceability requirements, budget allocation, element importance on structural safety and serviceability, bridge impact on network, and traffic. A questionnaire is conducted to complete the research scope. The proposed model is implemented in software, which provides a friendly user interface. The framework provides a multi-year maintenance plan for the entire network for up to five years. A case study of ten bridges is presented to validate and test the proposed model with data collected from Transportation Authorities in Egypt. Different scenarios are presented. The results are reasonable, feasible and within acceptable domain.

Keywords: bridge management systems (BMS), cost optimization condition assessment, fund allocation, Markov chain

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Authors: Mikiyas Adugna

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Effort estimation is among the activities carried out in software development processes. An accurate model of estimation leads to project success. The method of agile effort estimation is a complex task because of the dynamic nature of software development. Researchers are still conducting studies on agile effort estimation to enhance prediction accuracy. Due to these reasons, we investigated and proposed a model on LASSO and Elastic Net regression to enhance estimation accuracy. The proposed model has major components: preprocessing, train-test split, training with default parameters, and cross-validation. During the preprocessing phase, the entire dataset is normalized. After normalization, a train-test split is performed on the dataset, setting training at 80% and testing set to 20%. We chose two different phases for training the two algorithms (Elastic Net and LASSO) regression following the train-test-split. In the first phase, the two algorithms are trained using their default parameters and evaluated on the testing data. In the second phase, the grid search technique (the grid is used to search for tuning and select optimum parameters) and 5-fold cross-validation to get the final trained model. Finally, the final trained model is evaluated using the testing set. The experimental work is applied to the agile story point dataset of 21 software projects collected from six firms. The results show that both Elastic Net and LASSO regression outperformed the compared ones. Compared to the proposed algorithms, LASSO regression achieved better predictive performance and has acquired PRED (8%) and PRED (25%) results of 100.0, MMRE of 0.0491, MMER of 0.0551, MdMRE of 0.0593, MdMER of 0.063, and MSE of 0.0007. The result implies LASSO regression algorithm trained model is the most acceptable, and higher estimation performance exists in the literature.

Keywords: agile software development, effort estimation, elastic net regression, LASSO

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Authors: Amir Hossein Hejazi, Nima Amjady

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In recent years, due to environmental issues traditional energy sources had been replaced by renewable ones. Wind energy as the fastest growing renewable energy shares a considerable percent of energy in power electricity markets. With this fast growth of wind energy worldwide, owners and operators of wind farms, transmission system operators, and energy traders need reliable and secure forecasts of wind energy production. In this paper, a new forecasting strategy is proposed for short-term wind power prediction based on Echo State Networks (ESN). The forecast engine utilizes state-of-the-art training process including dynamical reservoir with high capability to learn complex dynamics of wind power or wind vector signals. The study becomes more interesting by incorporating prediction of wind direction into forecast strategy. The Big Bang-Big Crunch (BB-BC) evolutionary optimization algorithm is adopted for adjusting free parameters of ESN-based forecaster. The proposed method is tested by real-world hourly data to show the efficiency of the forecasting engine for prediction of both wind vector and wind power output of aggregated wind power production.

Keywords: wind power forecasting, echo state network, big bang-big crunch, evolutionary optimization algorithm

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Authors: Aadityaa Singla

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The big five personality traits are as follows: openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism. In order to get an insight into their personality, many flocks to these categories, which each have different meanings/characteristics. This information is important not only to individuals but also to career professionals and psychologists who can use this information for candidate assessment or job recruitment. The links between AI and psychology have been well studied in cognitive science, but it is still a rather novel development. It is possible for various AI classification models to accurately predict a personality question via ten input questions. This would contrast with the hundred questions that normal humans have to answer to gain a complete picture of their five personality traits. In order to approach this problem, various AI classification models were used on a dataset to predict what a user may answer. From there, the model's prediction was compared to its actual response. Normally, there are five answer choices (a 20% chance of correct guess), and the models exceed that value to different degrees, proving their significance. By utilizing an MLP classifier, decision tree, linear model, and K-nearest neighbors, they were able to obtain a test accuracy of 86.643, 54.625, 47.875, and 52.125, respectively. These approaches display that there is potential in the future for more nuanced predictions to be made regarding personality.

Keywords: machine learning, personally, big five personality traits, cognitive science

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Authors: Çiğdem Bakır, Mecit Yüzkat

Abstract:

With the increasing emphasis on water quality worldwide, the search for and expanding the market for new and intelligent monitoring systems has increased. The current method is the laboratory process, where samples are taken from bodies of water, and tests are carried out in laboratories. This method is time-consuming, a waste of manpower, and uneconomical. To solve this problem, we used machine learning methods to detect water pollution in our study. We created decision trees with the Orange3 software we used in our study and tried to determine all the factors that cause water pollution. An automatic prediction model based on water quality was developed by taking many model inputs such as water temperature, pH, transparency, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, and ammonia nitrogen with machine learning methods. The proposed approach consists of three stages: preprocessing of the data used, feature detection, and classification. We tried to determine the success of our study with different accuracy metrics and the results. We presented it comparatively. In addition, we achieved approximately 98% success with the decision tree.

Keywords: decision tree, water quality, water pollution, machine learning

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Authors: Farhad Alizadeh, Alireza Faregh Gharamaleki, Mojtaba Jalilzadeh, Houshang Gholami, Ali Akhoundzadeh

Abstract:

This study presented hybrid pre-processing approach along with a conceptual model to enhance the accuracy of river discharge prediction. In order to achieve this goal, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm (EEMD), Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Mutual Information (MI) were employed as a hybrid pre-processing approach conjugated to Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM). A conceptual strategy namely multi-station model was developed to forecast the Souris River discharge more accurately. The strategy used herein was capable of covering uncertainties and complexities of river discharge modeling. DWT and EEMD was coupled, and the feature selection was performed for decomposed sub-series using MI to be employed in multi-station model. In the proposed feature selection method, some useless sub-series were omitted to achieve better performance. Results approved efficiency of the proposed DWT-EEMD-MI approach to improve accuracy of multi-station modeling strategies.

Keywords: river stage-discharge process, LSSVM, discrete wavelet transform, Ensemble Empirical Decomposition Mode, multi-station modeling

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Authors: Quentin C.P. Bourgogne, Vanessa Bouchart, Pierre Chevrier, Emmanuel Dattoli

Abstract:

This study presents an experimental and theoretical work conducted on a PolyPhenylene Sulfide reinforced with 40%wt of short glass fibers (PPS GF40) and its matrix. Thermoplastics are widely used in the automotive industry to lightweight automotive parts. The replacement of metallic parts by thermoplastics is reaching under-the-hood parts, near the engine. In this area, the parts are subjected to high temperatures and are immersed in cooling liquid. This liquid is composed of water and glycol and can affect the mechanical properties of the composite. The aim of this work was thus to quantify the evolution of mechanical properties of the thermoplastic composite, as a function of temperature and liquid aging effects, in order to develop a reliable design of parts. An experimental campaign in the tensile mode was carried out at different temperatures and for various glycol proportions in the cooling liquid, for monotonic and cyclic loadings on a neat and a reinforced PPS. The results of these tests allowed to highlight some of the main physical phenomena occurring during these solicitations under tough hydro-thermal conditions. Indeed, the performed tests showed that temperature and liquid cooling aging can affect the mechanical behavior of the material in several ways. The more the cooling liquid contains water, the more the mechanical behavior is affected. It was observed that PPS showed a higher sensitivity to absorption than to chemical aggressiveness of the cooling liquid, explaining this dominant sensitivity. Two kinds of behaviors were noted: an elasto-plastic type under the glass transition temperature and a visco-pseudo-plastic one above it. It was also shown that viscosity is the leading phenomenon above the glass transition temperature for the PPS and could also be important under this temperature, mostly under cyclic conditions and when the stress rate is low. Finally, it was observed that soliciting this composite at high temperatures is decreasing the advantages of the presence of fibers. A new phenomenological model was then built to take into account these experimental observations. This new model allowed the prediction of the evolution of mechanical properties as a function of the loading environment, with a reduced number of parameters compared to precedent studies. It was also shown that the presented approach enables the description and the prediction of the mechanical response with very good accuracy (2% of average error at worst), over a wide range of hydrothermal conditions. A temperature-humidity equivalence principle was underlined for the PPS, allowing the consideration of aging effects within the proposed model. Then, a limit of improvement of the reachable accuracy was determinate for all models using this set of data by the application of an artificial intelligence-based model allowing a comparison between artificial intelligence-based models and phenomenological based ones.

Keywords: aging, analytical modeling, mechanical testing, polymer matrix composites, sequential model, thermomechanical

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Authors: José Leandro Melgar Néris, Claudinéia Brazil, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Isabel Cristina Damin

Abstract:

The impact the climate change is not recent, the main variable in the hydrological cycle is the sequence and shortage of a drought, which has a significant impact on the socioeconomic, agricultural and environmental spheres. This study aims to characterize and quantify, based on precipitation climatic projections, the rainy and dry events in the region of the Uruguay River Basin, through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The database is the image that is part of the Intercomparison of Model Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which provides condition prediction models, organized according to the Representative Routes of Concentration (CPR). Compared to the normal set of climates in the Uruguay River Watershed through precipitation projections, seasonal precipitation increases for all proposed scenarios, with a low climate trend. From the data of this research, the idea is that this article can be used to support research and the responsible bodies can use it as a subsidy for mitigation measures in other hydrographic basins.

Keywords: climate change, climatic model, dry events, precipitation projections

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Authors: Moustafa Osman Mohammed

Abstract:

This paper will explore formation of HCl aerosol at atmospheric boundary layers and encourages the uptake of environmental modeling systems (EMSs) as a practice evaluation of gaseous emissions (“framework measures”) from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The conceptual model predicts greenhouse gas emissions to ecological points beyond landfill site operations. It focuses on incorporation traditional knowledge into baseline information for both measurement data and the mathematical results, regarding parameters influence model variable inputs. The paper has simplified parameters of aerosol processes based on the more complex aerosol process computations. The simple model can be implemented to both Gaussian and Eulerian rural dispersion models. Aerosol processes considered in this study were (i) the coagulation of particles, (ii) the condensation and evaporation of organic vapors, and (iii) dry deposition. The chemical transformation of gas-phase compounds is taken into account photochemical formulation with exposure effects according to HCl concentrations as starting point of risk assessment. The discussion set out distinctly aspect of sustainability in reflection inputs, outputs, and modes of impact on the environment. Thereby, models incorporate abiotic and biotic species to broaden the scope of integration for both quantification impact and assessment risks. The later environmental obligations suggest either a recommendation or a decision of what is a legislative should be achieved for mitigation measures of landfill gas (LFG) ultimately.

Keywords: air pollution, landfill emission, environmental management, monitoring/methods and impact assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 304