Search results for: price forecast

Authors: Maruska Vizek, Josip Glaurdic, Marina Tkalec, Goran Vuksic

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We empirically explore whether and how taxation affects bilateral real exchange rates in the euro area – relative unit labor costs and relative consumer price indices. We find that employers’ social security contributions and the value added tax changes have the expected effects put forward in the fiscal devaluation literature and simulations. Increases in employers’ contributions appreciate the relative unit labor costs in the short- and the long-run, while value added tax hike appreciates the relative consumer prices. Somewhat surprisingly, for personal income tax increases, we find a short-run depreciating impact on the relative unit labor costs, while increases in employees’ contributions depreciate both measures of real exchange rates in the short-run.

Keywords: sovereign bonds, European Union, developing countries, political determinants

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Authors: O. Alaa, D. Ahmed, R. Baher, K. Matjaz

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This paper provides a study of the factors influencing the purchasing of low emission vehicles. In order to achieve the objectives of the paper, and in the light of the pool of literature and availability of data, the authors relied on qualitative methods to offers a comparison between Egypt as a developing country and Slovenia as a developed country, through analysing a survey that involves an Egyptian sample and Slovenian samples, it also studies the effect of different push and pull methods on different buyers in order to help the governments as well as the manufacturers to understand the most significant factors that affect the purchasing behaviour of LEV in the future. The results of this paper show the important vehicle performance factors, financial considerations, and environmental considerations along with the gender and age of the consumer show that consumers are more interested in the total price of the car than in different taxes.

Keywords: low emission vehicles, purchasing behavior, developed countries, developing countries

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

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Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightly-distressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models, are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the two-stage model incorporating financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors has the lowest misclassification error rate. The two-stage model is more accurate than the one-stage model as its distressed cut-off indicators are adjusted according to the macroeconomic-based credit cycle index.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy

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Authors: Osung Im, Neha Yadav, Eui Hoon Lee, Joong Hoon Kim

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Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach is commonly used in lots of fields for forecasting. In water resources engineering, forecast of water level or inflow of reservoir is useful for various kind of purposes. Due to advantages of ANN, many papers were written for inflow prediction in river networks, but in this study, ANN is used in urban sewer networks. The growth of severe rain storm in Korea has increased flood damage severely, and the precipitation distribution is getting more erratic. Therefore, effective pump operation in pump station is an essential task for the reduction in urban area. If real time inflow of pump station reservoir can be predicted, it is possible to operate pump effectively for reducing the flood damage. This study used ANN model for pump station reservoir inflow prediction using upstream sewer depth data. For this study, rainfall events, sewer depth, and inflow into Banpo pump station reservoir between years of 2013-2014 were considered. Feed – Forward Back Propagation (FFBF), Cascade – Forward Back Propagation (CFBP), Elman Back Propagation (EBP) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) were used as ANN model for prediction. A comparison of results with ANN model suggests that ANN is a powerful tool for inflow prediction using the sewer depth data.

Keywords: artificial neural network, forecasting, reservoir inflow, sewer depth

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Authors: Morteza Giti

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As online shopping is becoming increasingly popular, computing customer lifetime value for better knowing the customers is also gaining more importance. Two distinct factors that can affect the value of a customer in the context of online shopping is the number of returned orders and payment method. Returned orders are those which have been shipped but not collected by the customer and are returned to the store. Payment method refers to the way that customers choose to pay for the price of the order which are usually two: Pre-pay and Cash-on-delivery. In this paper, a novel model called RFMSP is presented to calculated the customer lifetime value, taking these two parameters into account. The RFMSP model is based on the common RFM model while adding two extra parameter. The S represents the order status and the P indicates the payment method. As a case study for this model, the purchase history of customers in an online shop is used to compute the customer lifetime value over a period of twenty months.

Keywords: RFMSP model, AHP, customer lifetime value, k-means clustering, e-commerce

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Authors: Pushkar Umaranikar, Chris Pollett

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An online advertisement system and its implementation for the Yioop open source search engine are presented. This system supports both selling advertisements and displaying them within search results. The selling of advertisements is done using a system to auction off daily impressions for keyword searches. This is an open, ascending price auction system in which all accepted bids will receive a fraction of the auctioned day’s impressions. New bids in our system are required to be at least one half of the sum of all previous bids ensuring the number of accepted bids is logarithmic in the total ad spend on a keyword for a day. The mechanics of creating an advertisement, attaching keywords to it, and adding it to an advertisement inventory are described. The algorithm used to go from accepted bids for a keyword to which ads are displayed at search time is also presented. We discuss properties of our system and compare it to existing auction systems and systems for selling online advertisements.

Keywords: online markets, online ad system, online auctions, search engines

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Authors: Kanmanas Muensak, Somphoom Saweangkun

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The objectives of this research were to study the consumer behavior that affects the customer loyalty of CP Fresh Mart in Bangkok province. The sample of the study comprised 400 consumers over 15 years old who made the purchase through CP Fresh Mart in Bangkok. The questionnaires were used as the data gathering instrument, and the data were analyzed applying Percentage, Mean, Standard Deviation, Independent Sample t-test, Two- Way ANOVA, and Least Significant Difference, and Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient also. The result of hypothesis testing showed that the respondents of different gender, age, level of education, income, marital status and occupation had differences in consumer behavior through customer loyalty of CP Fresh Mart and the factors on customer loyalty in the aspects of re-purchase, word of mouth and price sensitive, promotion, process, and personnel had positive relationship with the consumer behavior through of CP Fresh Mart in Bangkok as well as.

Keywords: consumers in Bangkok, consumer behavior, customer loyalty, CP Fresh Mart, operating budget

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Authors: Hassan Nabipour Afrouzi, Naser Mahmoudnia

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Broiler production has increased rapidly in tropical and subtropical regions in the past and sustained growth is forecast for the future. One of the greatest challenges to efficient production in these regions is reduced performance from warm and hot weather conditions. There are many ways to decrease these detrimental effects of heat on broiler chickens. One way is to supplement broiler diet with betaine added to feed or drinking water. A review of the results of this study suggest that betaine supplement was effective to significantly improve body weight and feed conversion ratio at the initial stages of growth but not in the finisher stages (P<0/05). It was also demonstrated that the use of betaine significantly reduced the percentage of abdominal meat and the percentage of breast meat (P<0/05), but had no effect on other carcass compositions. Betaine may improve the digestibility of specific nutrients. Betaine, as a methyl donor provides labile methyl groups for the synthesis of several metabolically active substances such as creatine and carnitine. Oil in a broiler diet is known to promote a response to dietary betaine supplements, that is, chicks have a higher demand for betaine with a high fat diet. This study implies that betaine supplement may stimulate protection of intestinal epithelium against osmotic disturbance, improve digestion and absorption conditions of the gastrointestinal tract and promote amended use of nutrients.

Keywords: heat stress, betaine, performance, broiler‚ growth

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Authors: Nilay Tanrıver, Birgül Benli, Nilgün Kızılcan

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Polysulfone (PSU) is a specialty engineering polymer having various industrial applications. PSU is especially used in waste water treatment membranes due to its good mechanical properties, structural and chemical stability. But it is a hydrophobic material and therefore its surface aim to pollute easily. In order to resolve this problem and extend the properties of membrane, PSU surface is rendered hydrophilic by addition of the sepiolite nanofibers. Sepiolite is one of the natural clays, which is a hydrate magnesium silicate fiber, also one of the well known layered clays of the montmorillonites where has several unique channels and pores within. It has also moisture durability, strength and low price. Sepiolite channels give great capacity of absorption and good surface properties. In this study, nanocomposites of commercial PSU and Sepiolite were prepared by solvent mixing method. Different organic solvents and their mixtures were used. Rheological characteristics of PSU-Sepiolite solvent mixtures were analyzed, the solubility of nanocomposite content in those mixtures were studied.

Keywords: nanocomposite, polysulfone, rheology, sepiolite, solution mixing

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Authors: Ursachi Andrei

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The Smart Grid Simulator is a computer software based on advanced algorithms which has as the main purpose to lower the energy bill in the most optimized price efficient way as possible for private households, companies or energy providers. It combines the energy provided by a number of solar modules and wind turbines with the consumption of one household or a cluster of nearby households and information regarding weather conditions and energy prices in order to predict the amount of energy that can be produced by renewable energy sources and the amount of energy that will be bought from the distributor for the following day. The user of the system will not only be able to minimize his expenditures on energy fractures, but also he will be informed about his hourly consumption, electricity prices fluctuation and money spent for energy bought as well as how much money he saved each day and since he installed the system. The paper outlines the algorithm that supports the Smart Grid Simulator idea and presents preliminary test results that support the discussion and implementation of the system.

Keywords: smart grid, sustainable energy, applied science, renewable energy sources

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Authors: Papali Maqalika

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Lesotho farmers produce significant quantities of Merino wool of a quality competitive on the global market and make a substantial impact on the economy of Lesotho. However, even with the economic contribution, the production and quality information and trends of this fibre has been recognised nor documented. This is a sombre shortcoming as Lesotho wool is unknown on international markets. The situation is worsened by the fact that Lesotho wool is auction together with South African wool, trading and benchmarking Lesotho wool are difficult not to mention attempts to advance its production and quality. Based on the information above, available data on Lesotho wool for 10 years were collected and analysed for trends to used in benchmarking where applicable. The fibre properties analysed include fibre diameter (fineness), vegetable matter and yield, application and price. These were selected because they are fundamental in determining fibre quality and price. Production of wool in Lesotho has increased slightly over the ten years covered by this study. It also became apparent that production and quality trends of Lesotho wool are greatly influenced by the farming practices, breed of sheep and climatic conditions. Greater adoption of the merino sheep breed, sheds/barns and sheep coats are suggested as ways to reduce mortality rate (due to extremely cold temperatures), to reduce the vegetable matter on the fibre thus improving the quality and increase yield per sheep and production as a whole. Some farming practices such as the lack of barns, supplementary feeding and veterinary care present constraints in wool production. The districts in the Highlands region were found to have the highest production of mostly wool, this being ascribed to better pastures, climatic, social and other conditions conducive to wool production. The production of Lesotho wool and its quality can be improved further, possibly because of the interventions the Ministry of Agriculture introduced through the Small Agricultural and Development Project (SADP) and other appropriate initiatives by the National Wool and Mohair Growers Association (NWMGA). The challenge however, remains the lack of direct involvement of the wool growers (farmers) in decisions making and policy development, this potentially influences and may lead to the reluctance to adopt the strategies. In some cases, the wool growers do not receive the benefits associated with the interventions immediately. Based on these discoveries; it is recommended that the relevant educators and researchers in wool and textile science, as well as the local wool farmers in Lesotho, be represented in policy and other decision making forums relating to these interventions. In this way, educational campaigns and training workshops will be demand driven with a better chance of adoption and success. This is because the direct beneficiaries will have been involved at inception and they will have a sense of ownership as well as intent to see them through successfully.

Keywords: lesotho wool, wool quality, wool production, lesotho economy, global market, apparel wool, database, textile science, exports, animal farming practices, intimate apparel, interventions

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Authors: Zhou Yang, Heli Sun, Jianbin Huang, Jizhong Zhao, Shaojie Qiao

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Traffic prediction is essential in a multitude of ways in modern urban life. The researchers of earlier work in this domain carry out the investigation chiefly with two major focuses: (1) the accurate forecast of future values in multiple time series and (2) knowledge extraction from spatial-temporal correlations. However, two key considerations for traffic prediction are often missed: the completeness of raw data and the full context of the prediction timestamp. Concentrating on the two drawbacks of earlier work, we devise an approach that can address these issues in a two-phase framework. First, we utilize the raw trajectories to a greater extent through building a VLA table and data compression. We obtain the intra-trajectory features with graph-based encoding and the intertrajectory ones with a grid-based model and the technique of back projection that restore their surrounding high-resolution spatial-temporal environment. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to study direct feature extraction from raw trajectories for traffic prediction and attempt the use of raw data with the least degree of reduction. In the prediction phase, we provide a broader context for the prediction timestamp by taking into account the information that are around it in the training dataset. Extensive experiments on several well-known datasets have verified the effectiveness of our solution that combines the strength of raw trajectory data and prediction context. In terms of performance, our approach surpasses several state-of-the-art methods for traffic prediction.

Keywords: traffic prediction, raw data utilization, context building, data reduction

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Authors: Wee Tong Liaw, Elaine Wong Yee Sing

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Since 2001, many companies in Singapore have voluntarily participated in the bi-annual Singapore HEALTH Award initiated by the Health Promotion Board of Singapore (HPB). The Singapore HEALTH Award (SHA), is an industry wide award and assessment process. SHA assesses and recognizes employers in Singapore for implementing a comprehensive and sustainable health promotion programme at their workplaces. The rationale for implementing a sustained health promoting workplace and participating in SHA is obvious when company management is convinced that healthier employees, business productivity, and profitability are positively correlated. However, performing research or empirical studies on the impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on stock returns are not likely to yield any interests in the absence of a systematic and independent assessment on the comprehensiveness and sustainability of a health promoting workplace in most developed economies. The principles of diversification and mean-variance efficient portfolio in Modern Portfolio Theory developed by Markowitz (1952) laid the foundation for the works of many financial economists and researchers, and among others, the development of the Capital Asset Pricing Model from the work of Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) and Mossin (1966), and the Fama-French Three-Factor Model of Fama and French (1992). This research seeks to support the rationale by studying whether there is a significant relationship or impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on the performance of companies listed on the SGX. The research shall form and test hypotheses pertaining to the impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on company’s performances, including stock returns, of companies that participated in the SHA and companies that did not participate in the SHA. In doing so, the research would be able to determine whether corporate and fund manager should consider the significance of a sustained health promoting workplace as a risk factor to explain the stock returns of companies listed on the SGX. With respect to Singapore’s stock market, this research will test the significance and relevance of a health promoting workplace using the Singapore Health Award as a proxy for non-diversifiable risk factor to explain stock returns. This study will examine the significance of a health promoting workplace on a company’s performance and study its impact on stock price performance and beta and examine if it has higher explanatory power than the traditional single factor asset pricing model CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model). To study the significance there are three key questions pertinent to the research study. I) Given a choice, would an investor be better off investing in a listed company with a sustained health promoting workplace i.e. a Singapore Health Award’s recipient? II) The Singapore Health Award has four levels of award starting from Bronze, Silver, Gold to Platinum. Would an investor be indifferent to the level of award when investing in a listed company who is a Singapore Health Award’s recipient? III) Would an asset pricing model combining FAMA-French Three Factor Model and ‘Singapore Health Award’ factor be more accurate than single factor Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Three Factor Model itself?

Keywords: asset pricing model, company's performance, stock prices, sustained health promoting workplace

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Authors: Mohammed Al-Shalabi, Alaa Obeidat

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In any food stores, some items will be expired or destroyed because the demand on these items is infrequent, so we need a system that can help the decision maker to make an offer on such items to improve the demand on the items by putting them with some other frequent item and decrease the price to avoid losses. The system generates hundreds or thousands of patterns (offers) for each low demand item, then it uses the association rules (support, confidence) to find the interesting patterns (the best offer to achieve the lowest losses). In this paper, we propose a data mining method for determining the best offer by merging the data mining techniques with the e-commerce strategy. The task is to build a model to predict the best offer. The goal is to maximize the profits of a store and avoid the loss of products. The idea in this paper is the using of the association rules in marketing with a combination with e-commerce.

Keywords: data mining, association rules, confidence, online stores

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Authors: A. Degale Desta, Cheng Jian

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Deep learning application in computer vision is rapidly advancing, giving it the ability to monitor the public and quickly identify potentially anomalous behaviour from crowd scenes. Therefore, the purpose of the current work is to improve the performance of safety of people in crowd events from panic behaviour through introducing the innovative idea of Aggregation of Ensembles (AOE), which makes use of the pre-trained ConvNets and a pool of classifiers to find anomalies in video data with packed scenes. According to the theory of algorithms that applied K-means, KNN, CNN, SVD, and Faster-CNN, YOLOv5 architectures learn different levels of semantic representation from crowd videos; the proposed approach leverages an ensemble of various fine-tuned convolutional neural networks (CNN), allowing for the extraction of enriched feature sets. In addition to the above algorithms, a long short-term memory neural network to forecast future feature values and a handmade feature that takes into consideration the peculiarities of the crowd to understand human behavior. On well-known datasets of panic situations, experiments are run to assess the effectiveness and precision of the suggested method. Results reveal that, compared to state-of-the-art methodologies, the system produces better and more promising results in terms of accuracy and processing speed.

Keywords: action recognition, computer vision, crowd detecting and tracking, deep learning

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Authors: Walter Bernhofer, Peter Haber, Tobias Mayer, Manfred Mayr, Markus Ziegler

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Current preventive maintenance measures are cost intensive and not efficient. With the available sensor data of state of the art internet of things devices new possibilities of automated data processing emerge. Current advances in data science and in machine learning enable new, so called predictive maintenance technologies, which empower data scientists to forecast possible system failures. The goal of this approach is to cut expenses in preventive maintenance by automating the detection of possible failures and to improve efficiency and quality of maintenance measures. Additionally, a centralization of the sensor data monitoring can be achieved by using this approach. This paper describes the approach of three students to define a reference architecture for a predictive maintenance solution in the internet of things domain with a connected smartphone app for service technicians. The reference architecture is validated by a case study. The case study is implemented with current Microsoft Azure cloud technologies. The results of the case study show that the reference architecture is valid and can be used to achieve a system for predictive maintenance execution with the cloud components of Microsoft Azure. The used concepts are technology platform agnostic and can be reused in many different cloud platforms. The reference architecture is valid and can be used in many use cases, like gas station maintenance, elevator maintenance and many more.

Keywords: case study, internet of things, predictive maintenance, reference architecture

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Authors: Xuan Tran

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The purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive dynamic model for pricing strategies in the hotel competition to find a win-win situation for the competitive set. By utilizing the Cobb-Douglas utility model, the study establishes room rates by analyzing the price elasticity of demand across a competitive set of four hotels, with a focus on occupancy rates. To further enhance the analysis, game theory is applied to identify the best response for each competitive party, which illustrates the optimal pricing strategy for each hotel in the competitive landscape. This approach offers valuable insights into how hotels can strategically adjust their room rates in response to market conditions and competitor actions. The primary contributions of this research include as follows: (1) advantages for both individual hotels and the broader competitive hotel market, (2) benefits for hotel management overseeing multiple brands, and (3) positive impacts on the local community.

Keywords: dynamic model, game theory, best response, Cobb-Douglas

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Authors: Brahim Mahfoud

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A three-dimensional (3D) numerical technique is used to investigate the possibility of reducing the price of manufacturing some silicon-based devices, particularly those in which minor temperature gradients can significantly reduce performance. The silicon melt under the magnetic field produces Lorentz force, which can effectively suppress the flow which is caused by temperature gradients. This might allow some silicon-based products, such as solar cells, to be manufactured using a less pure, and hence less expensive. The thermocapillary effect of the silicon melt flow in thin annular pools subjected to an externally induced magnetic field was observed. The results reveal that with a strong enough magnetic field, isothermal lines change form and become concentric circles. As the amplitude of the magnetic field (Ha) grows, the azimuthal velocity and temperature at the free surface reduce, and the asymmetric 3D flow becomes axisymmetric steady when Ha surpasses a threshold value.

Keywords: magnetic field, manufacturing, silicon melt, thermocapillary

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Authors: Sivilai Jayankura

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The objective is to study the behaviors, lifestyles and consumption of the student of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. This paper is survey research by using a questionnaire to collect the data with students of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University for 385 sampling, random coincidence sampling has been provide. Data analysis by descriptive statistics include the distribution, frequency, percentage, average, and standard deviation. The result found that the majority of students are female, and spend their time with their own ideas, like socializing with friends and shopping at the shopping mall, see the movie at the theaters and at the night time will enjoy with their mobile phone and found they long for the quality-price and also brand name regarding the dress. The media and promotion is a key factor impact to the decision to purchase the product and service with mobile phones will be good business to expand business channel also.

Keywords: consumption of teenager, internet, lifestyle behavior, Suan Sunundha Rajabhat University

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Authors: Patraporn Kaewkhanitarak, Suchada Srichuar, Narawat Kanjanapan

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This research is the survey research. The purpose of this research is to study information uses behavior and problem of tourists in Songkhla Province. The tool used in this study include structure questioner standardize in 5 levels rating scale. The 400 participants selected by convenience sampling (allowable error 5%) by Taro Yamane method. The collecting data period is 6 months from January-June 2014. The result of this study found that the type of information that the tourists often use to plan their trip is internet (x̅ = 3.81) and the most popular text is restaurant (x̅ = 3.77). The tourists found that booking or buying service from internet provided more affordable price and they could select appropriate plan by themselves. The most convenience source of information that the tourists often use is internet and website (x̅ = 3.69). Nevertheless, they explained that most of tourist information source in Songkhla province are lack and insufficient of tourist organization that provide information and service related to tourism.

Keywords: information, behavior, tourists, Thailand

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Authors: Marasovic Branka, Aljinovic Zdravka, Poklepovic Tea

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Numerical methods like binomial and trinomial trees and finite difference methods can be used to price a wide range of options contracts for which there are no known analytical solutions. American options are the most famous of that kind of options. Besides numerical methods, American options can be valued with the approximation formulas, like Bjerksund-Stensland formulas from 1993 and 2002. When the value of American option is approximated by Bjerksund-Stensland formulas, the computer time spent to carry out that calculation is very short. The computer time spent using numerical methods can vary from less than one second to several minutes or even hours. However to be able to conduct a comparative analysis of numerical methods and Bjerksund-Stensland formulas, we will limit computer calculation time of numerical method to less than one second. Therefore, we ask the question: Which method will be most accurate at nearly the same computer calculation time?

Keywords: Bjerksund and Stensland approximations, computational analysis, finance, options pricing, numerical methods

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Authors: Mike Tsionas

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The paper develops new indices of financial stability based on an explicit model of expected utility maximization by financial institutions subject to the classical technology restrictions of neoclassical production theory. The model can be estimated using standard econometric techniques, like GMM for dynamic panel data and latent factor analysis for the estimation of co-variance matrices. An explicit functional form for the utility function is not needed and we show how measures of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion) can be derived and estimated from the model. The model is estimated using data for Eurozone countries and we focus particularly on (i) the use of the modeling approach as an “early warning mechanism”, (ii) the bank- and country-specific estimates of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion), and (iii) the derivation of a generalized measure of risk that relies on loan-price uncertainty.

Keywords: financial stability, banking, expected utility maximization, sub-prime crisis, financial crisis, eurozone, PIIGS

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Authors: Boris G. German, Edward Jiménez, Sebastián Espinoza, Andrés G. Chico, Ricardo A. Narváez

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The unique flora and fauna of The Galapagos Islands has leveraged a tourism-driven growth in the islands. Nonetheless, such development is energy-intensive and requires thousands of gallons of diesel each year for thermoelectric electricity generation. The needed transport of fossil fuels from the continent has generated oil spillages and affectations to the fragile ecosystem of the islands. The Zero Fossil Fuels initiative for The Galapagos proposed by the Ecuadorian government as an alternative to reduce the use of fossil fuels in the islands, considers the replacement of diesel in thermoelectric generators, by Jatropha curcas vegetable oil. However, the Jatropha oil supply cannot entirely cover yet the demand for electricity generation in Galapagos. Within this context, the present work aims to provide an optimization model that can be used as a selection criterion for approving new Jatropha Curcas collection points in rural areas of Manabi-Ecuador. For this purpose, existing Jatropha collection points in Manabi were grouped under three regions: north (7 collection points), center (4 collection points) and south (9 collection points). Field work was carried out in every region in order to characterize the collection points, to establish local Jatropha supply and to determine transportation costs. Data collection was complemented using GIS software and an objective function was defined in order to determine the profit associated to Jatropha oil production. The market price of both Jatropha oil and residual cake, were considered for the total revenue; whereas Jatropha price, transportation and oil extraction costs were considered for the total cost. The tonnes of Jatropha fruit and seed, transported from collection points to the extraction plant, were considered as variables. The maximum and minimum amount of the collected Jatropha from each region constrained the optimization problem. The supply chain was optimized using linear programming in order to maximize the profits. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to find a profit-based criterion for the acceptance of future collection points in Manabi. The maximum profit reached a value of $ 4,616.93 per year, which represented a total Jatropha collection of 62.3 tonnes Jatropha per year. The northern region of Manabi had the biggest collection share (69%), followed by the southern region (17%). The criteria for accepting new Jatropha collection points in the rural areas of Manabi can be defined by the current maximum profit of the zone and by the variation in the profit when collection points are removed one at a time. The definition of new feasible collection points plays a key role in the supply chain associated to Jatropha oil production. Therefore, a mathematical model that assists decision makers in establishing new collection points while assuring profitability, contributes to guarantee a continued Jatropha oil supply for Galapagos and a sustained economic growth in the rural areas of Ecuador.

Keywords: collection points, Jatropha curcas, linear programming, supply chain

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Authors: Dinmukhamed T., Vassiliy S.

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This article suggests the idea of fitting clothes and accessories based on augmented reality. A logical data model has been developed, taking into account the decision-making module (colors, style, type, material, popularity, etc.) based on personal data (age, gender, weight, height, leg size, hoist length, geolocation, photogrammetry, number of purchases of certain types of clothing, etc.) and statistical data of the purchase history (number of items, price, size, color, style, etc.). Also, in order to provide information to the user, it is planned to develop an augmented reality system using a QR code. This system of selection and fitting of clothing and accessories based on augmented reality will be used in stores to reduce the time for the buyer to make a decision on the choice of clothes.

Keywords: augmented reality, online store, decision-making module, like QR code, clothing store, queue

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Authors: Akinbo Razak Yinka, Adesanya Kehinde Kazeem, Oladokun Oluwagbenga Peter

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Time series data are sequences of observations collected over a period of time. Such data can be used to predict health outcomes, such as disease progression, mortality, hospitalization, etc. The Statistical approach is based on mathematical models that capture the patterns and trends of the data, such as autocorrelation, seasonality, and noise, while Neural methods are based on artificial neural networks, which are computational models that mimic the structure and function of biological neurons. This paper compared both parametric and non-parametric time series models of patients treated for malaria in Maternal and Child Health Centres in Lagos State, Nigeria. The forecast methods considered linear regression, Integrated Moving Average, ARIMA and SARIMA Modeling for the parametric approach, while Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Network were used for the non-parametric model. The performance of each method is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R-squared (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as criteria to determine the accuracy of each model. The study revealed that the best performance in terms of error was found in MLP, followed by the LSTM and ARIMA models. In addition, the Bootstrap Aggregating technique was used to make robust forecasts when there are uncertainties in the data.

Keywords: ARIMA, bootstrap aggregation, MLP, LSTM, SARIMA, time-series analysis

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Authors: P. Priyanka, S. Shruthi, N. Guruprasad

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Health is a common theme in most cultures. In fact all communities have their concepts of health, as part of their culture. Health continues to be a neglected entity. Planning of Human diet should be done very careful by selecting the food items or groups of food items also the composition involved. Low price and good taste of foods are regarded as two major factors for optimal human nutrition. Linear programming techniques have been extensively used for human diet formulation for quiet good number of years. Through the process, we mainly apply “The Simplex Method” which is a very useful statistical tool based on the theorem of Elementary Row Operation from Linear Algebra and also incorporate some other necessary rules set by the Simplex Method to help solve the problem. The study done by us is an attempt to develop a programming model for optimal planning and best use of nutrient ingredients.

Keywords: diet formulation, linear programming, nutrient ingredients, optimization, simplex method

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Authors: Adel A. Ghobbar, Ahmad Bakkar

Abstract:

Although special care is given to maintenance, aircraft systems fail, and these failures cause delays and cancellations. The occurrence of Delays and Cancellations affects operators and manufacturers negatively. To reduce technical delays and cancellations, one should be able to determine the important systems causing them. The goal of this research is to find a method to define the most expensive delays and cancellations systems for Airline operators. A predictive model was introduced to forecast the failure and their impact after carrying out research that identifies relevant information to tackle the problems faced while answering the questions of this paper. Data were obtained from the manufacturers’ services reliability team database. Subsequently, delays and cancellations evaluation methods were identified. No cost estimation methods were used due to their complexity. The model was developed, and it takes into account the frequency of delays and cancellations and uses weighting factors to give an indication of the severity of their duration. The weighting factors are based on customer experience. The data Analysis approach has shown that delays and cancellations events are not seasonal and do not follow any specific trends. The use of weighting factor does have an influence on the shortlist over short periods (Monthly) but not the analyzed period of three years. Landing gear and the navigation system are among the top 3 factors causing delays and cancellations for all three aircraft types. The results did confirm that the cooperation between certain operators and manufacture reduce the impact of delays and cancellations.

Keywords: reliability, availability, delays & cancellations, aircraft maintenance

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Authors: John Knight, Fuchun Li, Yan Xu

Abstract:

Based on a new method of the nonparametric estimator of the drift function, we propose a consistent test for the parametric specification of the drift function in the short rate diffusion process using observations from a panel of yields. The test statistic is shown to follow an asymptotic normal distribution under the null hypothesis that the parametric drift function is correctly specified, and converges to infinity under the alternative. Taking the daily 7-day European rates as a proxy of the short rate, we use our test to examine whether the drift of the short rate diffusion process is linear or nonlinear, which is an unresolved important issue in the short rate modeling literature. The testing results indicate that none of the drift functions in this literature adequately captures the dynamics of the drift, but nonlinear specification performs better than the linear specification.

Keywords: diffusion process, nonparametric estimation, derivative security price, drift function and volatility function

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Authors: Veronica Sri Lestari, Asmuddin Natsir, Hasmida Karim, Ian Patrick

Abstract:

The research aimed at investigating the factors affecting consumers’ willingness to pay for chicken meat from biosecure farms. The research was conducted in Makassar City, South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. Samples were taken using random sampling technique in two supermarkets namely Lotte Mart and Gelael. Total samples were 50 respondents which comprised the chicken meat consumers. To find out the consumers’ willingness to pay for chicken meat from the biosecure farms, the contingent valuation method was utilized. Data were collected through interviews and questionnaires. Probit Logistic was estimated to examine the factors affecting the consumers’ willingness to pay for at the premium price for chicken meat from the biosecure farms. The research indicates that the education and income affect significantly the consumers’ willingness to pay for chicken meat from the biosecure farms (P < 0.05). The results of the study will be beneficial for the policy makers, producers, consumers and those conducting research.

Keywords: biosecure, chicken, farms, consumer, willingness-to-pay

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Ji-Seok Koo, Hee‑Yong Kwon, Hui-Young Yun, Kyung-Hui Wang, Youn-Seo Koo

Abstract:

This paper presents a forecasting system for PM2.5 levels in Seoul, South Korea, leveraging a combination of chemical transport modeling and ConvLSTM-DNN machine learning technology. Exposure to PM2.5 has known detrimental impacts on public health, making its prediction crucial for establishing preventive measures. Existing forecasting models, like the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), are hindered by their reliance on uncertain input data, such as anthropogenic emissions and meteorological patterns, as well as certain intrinsic model limitations. The system we've developed specifically addresses these issues by integrating machine learning and using carefully selected input features that account for local and distant sources of PM2.5. In South Korea, the PM2.5 concentration is greatly influenced by both local emissions and long-range transport from China, and our model effectively captures these spatial and temporal dynamics. Our PM2.5 prediction system combines the strengths of advanced hybrid machine learning algorithms, convLSTM and DNN, to improve upon the limitations of the traditional CMAQ model. Data used in the system include forecasted information from CMAQ and WRF models, along with actual PM2.5 concentration and weather variable data from monitoring stations in China and South Korea. The system was implemented specifically for Seoul's PM2.5 forecasting.

Keywords: PM2.5 forecast, machine learning, convLSTM, DNN

Procedia PDF Downloads 50