Search results for: population change

Authors: Sandeep J. Kumar

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Urbanisation is considered as the primary driver of land use and land cover change that has direct link to population and economic growth. In India, as well as in other developing countries, cities are urbanizing at an alarming rate. This unprecedented and uncontrolled urbanisation can result in urban sprawl. Due to a number of factors, urban sprawl is recognised to be a result of poor planning, inadequate policies, and poor governance. Urban sprawl may be seen as posing a threat to the development of sustainable cities. Hence, it is very essential to manage this. Planning for predicted future growth is critical to avoid the negative effects of urban growth at the local and regional levels. Thiruvananthapuram being the capital city of Kerala is a city of economic success, challenges, and opportunities. Urbanization trends in the city have paved way for Urban Sprawl. This thesis aims to formulate a framework to combat the emerging urban sprawl in the city of Thiruvananthapuram. For that, the first step was to quantify trends of urban growth in Thiruvananthapuram city using Geographical Information System(GIS) and remote sensing techniques. The technique and results obtained in the study are extremely valuable in analysing the land use changes. Secondly, these change in the trends were analysed through some of the critical factors that helped the study to understand the underlying issues of the existing city structure that has resulted in urban sprawl. Anticipating development trends can modify the current order. This can be productively resolved using regional and municipal planning and management strategies. Hence efficient strategies to curb the sprawl in Thiruvananthapuram city have been formulated in this study that can be considered as recommendations for future planning.

Keywords: urbanisation, urban sprawl, geographical information system(GIS), thiruvananthapuram

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Authors: Amel M. A. Osman, Roy Mahony, Lisa Dann, McKenna S.

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Background: Computed Tomography (CT) is a significant source of radiation in the pediatric population. A new head injury (HI) pathway was introduced in 2021, which altered the previous process of HI being jointly admitted with general pediatrics and surgery to admit these patients under the Emergency Medicine Team. Admitted patients included those with positive CT findings not requiring immediate neurosurgical intervention and those who did not meet current criteria for urgent CT brain as per NICE guidelines but were still symptomatic for prolonged observations. This approach aims to decrease the number of CT scans performed. The main aim is to assess the variation in CT scanning rates since the change in the admitting process. A retrospective review of patients presenting to CHI PECU with HI over 6-month period (01/01/19-31/05/19) compared to a 6-month period post introduction of the new pathway (01/06/2022-31/12/2022). Data was collected from the electronic record databases, symphony, and PACS. Results: In 2019, there were 869 presentations of HI, among which 32 (3.68%) had CT scans performed. 2 (6.25%) of those scanned had positive findings. In 2022, there were 1122 HI presentations, with 47 (4.19%) CT scans performed and positive findings in 5 (10.6%) cases. 57 patients were admitted under the new pathway for observation, with 1 having a CT scan following admission. Conclusion: Quantitative lifetime radiation risks for children are not negligible. While there was no statistically significant reduction in CTs performed amongst HIs presenting to our department, a significant group met the criteria for admission under the PECU consultant for prolonged monitoring. There was also a greater proportion of abnormalities on CT scans performed in 2022, demonstrating improved patient selection for imaging. Further data analysis is ongoing to determine if those who were admitted would have previously been scanned under the old pathway.

Keywords: head injury, CT, admission, guidline

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Authors: M. van der Bank

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This study involves a legal analysis of the case Earthlife Africa Johannesburg v Minister of Environmental Affairs and Others. The case considered the impact of the Thabametsi Power Project if it operated to the expected year 2060 on the global climate and ever-changing climate, in South Africa. This judgment highlights the significance, place and principles of climate change and where climate change impacts the South African environmental law which has its founding principles in the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996. This paper seeks to examine the advances for climate change regulation and application in terms of international law, in South Africa, through a qualitative study involving comparative national and international case law. A literature review study was conducted to compare and contrast the various aspects of law in order to support the argument undertaken. The paper presents a detailed discussion of the current legislation and the position as it currently stands with reference to international law and interpretation. The relevant protections as outlined in the National Environmental Management Act will be discussed. It then proceeds to outline the potential liability of the Minister in the interpretation and application of international law.

Keywords: climate change; environment, environmental review, international law; and principles

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Authors: Jon Gunnar Bernburg

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The present study addresses a topic that is fundamental to social movement theory, namely, the contingent link between movement support and movement participation. Usually, only a small fraction of those who agree with the cause of a social movement is mobilized into participating in it (a pattern sometimes referred to as 'the collective action problem'). However, historical moments sometimes emerge when many supporters become mobilized to participate in the movement, greatly enhancing the chance of movement success. By studying a case in point, this paper addresses the limited work on how support and participation are related at such critical moments. Specifically, the paper examines the association between supporting and participating in a huge 'pro-democracy' protest in Iceland in April 2016, in the wake of the global Panama Papers scandal. Organized via social media by only a handful of activists, but supported by a majority of Icelanders, the protest attracted about a fourth of the urban population, leading to a snap election and government change. Surveying Iceland’s urban population, this paper tests hypotheses about the processes mobilizing supporters to participate in the protest. The findings reveal how variables derived from the theories of biographical availability (males vs. females, working class vs. professionals), critical mass (expectations, prior protest success), and social embeddedness (close ties with protesters) moderate the association between protest support and participation. The study helps to account for one of the largest protests in Iceland’s history while contributing to the theory about how historical contexts shape the behavior of movement supporters.

Keywords: Iceland, crisis, protest support vs. participation, theories of mass mobilization

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Authors: Julius Niba Fon, Jean Hude E. Moudingo

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Mangrove ecosystems in Cameroon are valuable both in services and functions as they play host to carbon sinks, fishery breeding grounds and natural coastal barriers against storms. In addition to the globally important biodiversity that they contain, they also contribute to local livelihoods. Despite these appraisals, a reduction of about 30 % over a 25 years period due to anthropogenic and natural actions has been recorded. The key drivers influencing mangrove change include population growth, climate change, economic and political trends and upstream habitat use. Reversing the trend of mangrove loss and growing vulnerability of coastal peoples requires a real commitment by the government to develop and implement robust level policies. It has been observed in Cameroon that special ecosystems like mangroves are insufficiently addressed by forestry and/or environment programs. Given these facts, the Food Agriculture Organization (FAO) in partnership with the Government of Cameroon and other development actors have put in place the project for sustainable community-based management and conservation of mangrove ecosystems in Cameroon. The aim is to address two issues notably the present weak institutional and legal framework for mangrove management, and the unrestricted and unsustainable harvesting of mangrove resources. Civil society organizations like the Cameroon Wildlife Conservation Society, Cameroon Ecology and Organization for the Environment and Development have been working to reduce the deforestation and degradation trend of Cameroon mangroves and also bringing the mangrove agenda to the fore in national and international arenas. Following a desktop approach, we found out that in situ and ex situ initiatives on mangrove management and conservation exist on propagation of improved fish smoke ovens to reduce fuel wood consumption, mangrove forest regeneration, shrimps farming and mangrove protected areas management. The evidence generated from the field experiences are inputs for processes of improving the legal and institutional framework for mangrove management in Cameroon, such as the elaboration of norms for mangroves management engaged by the government.

Keywords: mangrove ecosystem, legal and institutional framework, climate change, civil society organizations

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Authors: Funmilayo Sarah Eguakun, Peter Oluremi Adesoye

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One of the major problems being faced by human society is that the global temperature is believed to be rising due to human activity that releases carbon IV oxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. Carbon IV oxide is the most important greenhouse gas influencing global warming and possible climate change. With climate change becoming alarming, reducing CO2 in our atmosphere has become a primary goal of international efforts. Forest landsare major sink and could absorb large quantities of carbon if the trees are judiciously managed. The study aims at estimating the carbon sequestration capacity of Pinus caribaea (pine)and Tectona grandis (Teak) under the prevailing environmental conditions and exploring tree growth variables that influencesthe carbon sequestration capacity in Omo Forest Reserve, Ogun State, Nigeria. Improving forest management by manipulating growth characteristics that influences carbon sequestration could be an adaptive strategy of forestry to climate change. Random sampling was used to select Temporary Sample Plots (TSPs) in the study area from where complete enumeration of growth variables was carried out within the plots. The data collected were subjected to descriptive and correlational analyses. The results showed that average carbon stored by Pine and Teak are 994.4±188.3 Kg and 1350.7±180.6 Kg respectively. The difference in carbon stored in the species is significant enough to consider choice of species relevant in climate change adaptation strategy. Tree growth variables influence the capacity of the tree to sequester carbon. Height, diameter, volume, wood density and age are positively correlated to carbon sequestration. These tree growth variables could be manipulated by the forest manager as an adaptive strategy for climate change while plantations of high wood density speciescould be relevant for management strategy to increase carbon storage.

Keywords: adaptation, carbon sequestration, climate change, growth variables, wood density

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Authors: Manuel Jose Oyson

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned in its most recent report for the entire world “to both mitigate and adapt to climate change if it is to effectively avoid harmful climate impacts.” The IPCC observed “with high confidence” a more rapid rise in total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) emissions from 2000 to 2010 than in the past three decades that “were the highest in human history”, which if left unchecked will entail a continuing process of global warming and can alter the climate system. Current efforts, however, to respond to the threat of global warming, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, have focused on states, and fail to involve Transnational Corporations (TNCs) which are responsible for a vast amount of GHG emissions. Involving TNCs in the search for solutions to climate change is consistent with an acknowledgment by contemporary international law that there is an international role for other international persons, including TNCs, and departs from the traditional “state-centric” response to climate change. Putting the focus of GHG emissions away from states recognises that the activities of TNCs “are not bound by national borders” and that the international movement of goods meets the needs of consumers worldwide. Although there is no legally-binding instrument that covers TNC activities or legal responsibilities generally, TNCs have increasingly been made legally responsible under international law for violations of human rights, exploitation of workers and environmental damage, but not for climate change damage. Imposing on TNCs a legally-binding obligation to reduce their GHG emissions or a legal liability for climate change damage is arguably formidable and unlikely in the absence a recognisable source of obligation in international law or municipal law. Instead a recourse to “soft law” and non-legally binding instruments may be a way forward for TNCs to reduce their GHG emissions and help in addressing climate change. Positive effects have been noted by various studies to voluntary approaches. TNCs have also in recent decades voluntarily committed to “soft law” international agreements. This development reflects a growing recognition among corporations in general and TNCs in particular of their corporate social responsibility (CSR). While CSR used to be the domain of “small, offbeat companies”, it has now become part of mainstream organization. The paper argues that TNCs must voluntarily commit to reducing their GHG emissions and helping address climate change as part of their CSR. One, as a serious “global commons problem”, climate change requires international cooperation from multiple actors, including TNCs. Two, TNCs are not innocent bystanders but are responsible for a large part of GHG emissions across their vast global operations. Three, TNCs have the capability to help solve the problem of climate change. Assuming arguendo that TNCs did not strongly contribute to the problem of climate change, society would have valid expectations for them to use their capabilities, knowledge-base and advanced technologies to help address the problem. It would seem unthinkable for TNCs to do nothing while the global environment fractures.

Keywords: climate change law, corporate social responsibility, greenhouse gas emissions, transnational corporations

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Authors: R. H. Bustos, L. Martinez, J. García, F. Suárez

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MRP1 (Multi-drug resistance associated protein 1) and MRP2 (Multi-drug resistance associated protein 2) are two proteins belonging to the transporters of ABC (ATP-Binding Cassette). These transporter proteins are involved in the efflux of several biological drugs and xenobiotic and also in multiple physiological, pathological and pharmacological processes. Evidence has been found that there is a correlation among different polymorphisms found and their clinical implication in the resistance to antiepileptic, chemotherapy and anti-infectious drugs. In our study, exonic regions of MRP1/ABCC1 y MRP2/ABCC2 were studied in the Colombian population, specifically in the region of the central Savannah (Cundinamarca) to determinate SNP (Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms) and determinate its allele frequency and its genomics frequency. Results showed that for our population, SNP are found that have been previously reported for MRP1/ABCC1 (rs200647436, rs200624910, rs150214567) as well as for MRP2/ABCC2 (rs2273697, rs3740066, rs142573385, rs17216212). In addition, 13 new SNP were identified. Evidences show an important clinic correlation for polymorphisms rs3740066 and rs2273697. The study object population displays genetic variability as compared to the one reported in other populations.

Keywords: ATP-binding cassette (ABCC), Colombian population, multidrug-resistance protein (MRP), pharmacogenetic, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)

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Authors: Nho-Eul Song, Sang-Ho Baik

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Fermentation characteristics of black raspberry vinegar by using static cultures without any additives were has been investigated to establish of vinegar manufacturing conditions and improve the quality of vinegar by optimization the vinegar manufacturing process. The two vinegar manufacturing conditions were prepared; one-step fermentation condition only using mother vinegar that prepared naturally occurring black raspberry vinegar without starter yeast for alcohol fermentation (traditional method) and two-step fermentation condition using commercial wine yeast and mother vinegar for acetic acid fermentation. Approximately 12% ethanol was produced after 35 days fermentation with log 7.6 CFU/mL of yeast population in one-step fermentation, resulting sugar reduction from 14 to 6oBrix whereas in two-step fermentation, ethanol concentration was reached up to 8% after 27 days with continuous increasing yeast until log 7.0 CFU/mL. In addition, yeast and ethanol were decreased after day 60 accompanied with proliferation of acetic acid bacteria (log 5.8 CFU/mL) and titratable acidity; 4.4% in traditional method and 6% in two-step fermentation method. DGGE analysis showed that S. cerevisiae was detected until 77 days of traditional fermentation and gradually changed to AAB, Acetobacter pasteurianus, as dominant species and Komagataeibacter xylinus at the end of the fermentation. However, S. cerevisiae and A. pasteurianus was dominant in two-step fermentation process. The prepared two-step fermentation showed enhanced total polyphenol and flavonoid content significantly resulting in higher radical scavenging activity. Our studies firstly revealed the microbial community change with chemical change and demonstrated a suitable fermentation system for black raspberry vinegar by the static surface method.

Keywords: bacteria, black raspberry, vinegar fermentation, yeast

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Authors: Priyanka R. Oberoi, Chandra B. Maurya, Prakash A. Mahanwar

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Ionizing radiation can cause a drastic change in the physical and chemical properties of the material exposed. Numerous medical devices are sterilized by ionizing radiation. In the current research paper, an attempt was made to develop precise and inexpensive polymeric film dosimeter which can be used for controlling radiation dosage. Polymeric film containing (pH sensitive dye) indicator dye Bromophenol blue (BPB) was casted to check the effect of Gamma radiation on its optical and physical properties. The film was exposed to gamma radiation at 4 kGy/hr in the range of 0 to 300 kGy at an interval of 50 kGy. Release of vinyl acetate from an emulsion on high radiation reacts with the BPB fading the color of the film from blue to light blue and then finally colorless, indicating a change in pH from basic to acidic form. The change was characterized by using CIE l*a*b*, ultra-violet spectroscopy and FT-IR respectively.

Keywords: bromophenol blue, dosimeter, gamma radiation, polymer

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Authors: Karen Cilliers, Benedict J. Page

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Limited research focuses on the anatomy of the posterior cerebral artery (PCA) and its cortical branches, even though there can be variation in the presence, size, and origin. The PCA branching pattern has not been adequately reported, and the true division point remains unclear. Anomalies of the PCA have been described in the previous literature; however, few examples have been reported. Furthermore, possible differences between right and left, sex, population and age groups may exist. Therefore, the aim of this study was to report on these aspects from a South African population. One hundred and twenty-six hemispheres were obtained consisting of 86 males and 38 females, between the ages of 22 and 84 (average 45 years of age). This comprised of three population groups, namely coloured (n=74), black (n=38), white (n=10) and two unknown cases. The PCA was injected with an isotonic saline and a colored silicone. The external diameter was measured with a digital micrometer, and length was measured with a string and a ruler. Presence and origins of the cortical branches were similar to the literature; however, duplications, triplications, and unusual origins were observed. The diameter and lengths indicated significant differences between the right and left sides, sex, population and age groups. Branching patterns were identified and compared to the prevalence from previous studies. Two fenestrations were observed in the P2A segment. The presence, size, origin, branching pattern and anomalies of the PCA were investigated in this study. The diameter and length can be significantly different, especially between the right and left-hand side. Changes in the diameter and length can be indicative of certain neuropathological conditions and can play a role in aneurysms formation. Adequate knowledge of the normal and abnormal PCA anatomy is crucial for surgery in the vicinity of the PCA. Therefore, future studies should focus on these aspects.

Keywords: branching, cortical branches, fenestration, posterior cerebral artery

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Authors: Resham Lal Phuldel

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This study based on a bilateral development cooperation project funded by the governments of Nepal and Finland. The first phase of the project has been completed in August 2012 and the phase II started in September 2013 and will end September 2018. The project strengthens the capacity of local governments in 14 districts to deliver services in water supply, sanitation and hygiene in Western development region and in Mid-Western development region of Nepal. In recent days, several spring sources have been dried out or slowly decreasing its yield across the country due to changing character of rainfall, increasing evaporative losses and some other manmade causes such as land use change, infrastructure development work etc. To sustain the hilly communities, the sources have to be able to provide sufficient water to serve the population, either on its own or in conjunction with other sources. Phase III have measured all water sources in Tanahu district in 2004 and sources were located with the GPS. Phase II has repeated the exercise to see changes in the district. 3320 water sources as identified in 2004 and altogether 4223 including new water sources were identified and measured in 2014. Between 2004 and 2014, 50% flow rate (yield) deduction of point sources’ average yield in 10 years is found. Similarly, 21.6% and 34% deductions of average yield were found in spring and stream water sources respectively. The rainfall from 2002 to 2013 shows erratic rainfalls in the district. The monsoon peak month is not consistent and the trend shows the decrease of annual rainfall 16.7 mm/year. Further, the temperature trend between 2002 and 2013 shows warming of + 0.0410C/year.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall, source discharge, water sources

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Authors: Benjamin Mauck, Kevin Winter

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The city of Cape Town in South Africa, has shown consistent economic and population growth in the last few decades and that growth is expected to continue to increase into the future. These projected economic and population growth rates are set to place additional pressure on the city’s already strained water supply system. Thus, given Cape Town’s water scarcity, increasing water demands and stressed water supply system, coupled with global awareness around the issues of sustainable development, environmental protection and climate change, alternative water management strategies are required to ensure water is sustainably managed. Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) is an approach to sustainable urban water management that attempts to assign a resource value to all forms of water in the urban context, viz. stormwater, wastewater, potable water and groundwater. WSUD employs a wide range of strategies to improve the sustainable management of urban water such as the water reuse, developing alternative available supply sources, sustainable stormwater management and enhancing the aesthetic and recreational value of urban water. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is one WSUD strategy which has proven to be a successful reuse strategy in a number of places around the world. MAR is the process where an aquifer is intentionally or artificially recharged, which provides a valuable means of water storage while enhancing the aquifers supply potential. This paper investigates the feasibility of implementing MAR in the sandy, unconfined Cape Flats Aquifer (CFA) in Cape Town. The main objective of the study is to assess if MAR is a viable strategy for stormwater management on the Cape Flats, aiding the prevention or mitigation of the seasonal flooding that occurs on the Cape Flats, while also improving the supply potential of the aquifer. This involves the infiltration of stormwater into the CFA during the wet winter months and in turn, abstracting from the CFA during the dry summer months for fit-for-purpose uses in order to optimise the recharge and storage capacity of the CFA. The fully-integrated MIKE SHE model is used in this study to simulate both surface water and groundwater hydrology. This modelling approach enables the testing of various potential recharge and abstraction scenarios required for implementation of MAR on the Cape Flats. Further MIKE SHE scenario analysis under projected future climate scenarios provides insight into the performance of MAR as a stormwater management strategy under climate change conditions. The scenario analysis using an integrated model such as MIKE SHE is a valuable tool for evaluating the feasibility of the MAR as a stormwater management strategy and its potential to contribute towards improving Cape Town’s water security into the future.

Keywords: managed aquifer recharge, stormwater management, cape flats aquifer, MIKE SHE

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Authors: Alma Mendoza-Ponce, Rogelio Corona-Núñez, Florian Kraxner

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Mexico is a megadiverse country and it has nearly halved its natural vegetation in the last century due to agricultural and livestock expansion. Impacts of land use cover change and climate change are unevenly distributed and spatial prioritization to minimize the affectations on biodiversity is crucial. Global and national efforts for prioritizing biodiversity conservation show that ~33% to 45% of Mexico should be protected. The width of these targets makes difficult to lead resources. We use a framework based on vulnerability and irreplaceability to prioritize conservation efforts in Mexico. Vulnerability considered exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity under two scenarios (business as usual, BAU based, on the SSP2 and RCP 4.5 and a Green scenario, based on the SSP1 and the RCP 2.6). Exposure to land use is the magnitude of change from natural vegetation to anthropogenic covers while exposure to climate change is the difference between current and future values for both scenarios. Sensitivity was considered as the number of endemic species of terrestrial vertebrates which are critically endangered and endangered. Adaptive capacity is used as the ration between the percentage of converted area (natural to anthropogenic) and the percentage of protected area at municipality level. The results suggest that by 2050, between 11.6 and 13.9% of Mexico show vulnerability ≥ 50%, and by 2070, between 12.0 and 14.8%, in the Green and BAU scenario, respectively. From an ecosystem perspective cloud forests, followed by tropical dry forests, natural grasslands and temperate forests will be the most vulnerable (≥ 50%). Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates; 62% of the endemic amphibians are critically endangered or endangered while 39%, 12% and 9% of the mammals, birds, and reptiles, respectively. However, the distribution of these amphibians counts for only 3.3% of the country, while mammals, birds, and reptiles in these categories represent 10%, 16% and 29% of Mexico. There are 5 municipalities out of the 2,457 that Mexico has that represent 31% of the most vulnerable areas (70%).These municipalities account for 0.05% of Mexico. This multiscale approach can be used to address resources to conservation targets as ecosystems, municipalities or species considering land use cover change, climate change and biodiversity uniqueness.

Keywords: biodiversity, climate change, land use change, Mexico, vulnerability

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Authors: Paulo José Sigaúque, Paulo Rosman

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The Itajurú channel, located in the Eastern side of the Araruama lagoon, Rio de Janeiro state, is the one who makes the connection between Araruama lagoon and the sea. It is important to understand the hydrodynamic circulation of the location and effects of the sedimentological processes, and also estimate of the hydrodynamic and sedimentological processes in the future after the sea level change due to effects of climate change. This work presents results of a study about sediments dynamics in the Araruama lagoon focusing on the Itajurú channel region considering the present mean sea level and a foreseen sea level rise of 0.5 meters due to climate changes. The study was conducted with the aid of computer modeling for hydrodynamic and morphodynamic in SisBaHiA®. The results indicate that Araruama lagoon is composed by two hydrodynamics compartments; one is dominated by the action of the tide between the entrance of the channel and the strait of Perynas, and another one by the action of wind in narrow region between strait of Perynas and western extreme of the lagoon. With sea level rise, the magnitude of current velocities and flow rates is increased and consequently flow of sediment transport from upstream to downstream of Itajurú channel is increased and has more effect in the bridge Feliciano Sodré.

Keywords: hydrodinamic, superelevation, sea level, climate change

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Authors: Khalil Aryanfar, Shahrzad Sanjari, Elmira Hafez, Pariya Gholipor

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The aim of this study was to Evaluate and compare the male and female students’ life skills of theoretical, technical-vocational and Job and Knowledge branches of secondary high school period. The research method is descriptive - survey Research population was 5892 students from three high schools in Tehran, sample size was determined 342 patients according to Morgan’s table and by stratified random sampling. The data collection tool was a questionnaire designed by the researchers that the reliability was more than 85/0 respectively. Data was anglicized by Kryskal Wallis and Mann-Whitney U-test. In three branches of theoretical, technical-vocational and Job and Knowledge The variables of academic achievement, the importance of organization, problem solving, seeking knowledge, good habits, mental and physical self-concept, family orientation and future orientation was not significant differences, in the variables of cooperative behavior, and ready for change was but significant differences. Variables such as academic achievement, seek knowledge, good habits, mental and physical, seeking direction to future cooperative behavior between boys and girls with the confidence of at least 95/0 and the variable ready for change among boys and girls by ensuring 0932 / There was an However, the importance of variables, problem solving, self-concept and family orientation was not significantly different.

Keywords: life skills, high school, theoretical, technical-vocational, job and knowledge

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Authors: Xia Fang

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Arid and semiarid areas of China (ASAC) have experienced significant land-use/cover changes (LUCC), along with intensified climate change. However, LUCC and climate changes and their individual and interactive effects on carbon stocks have not yet been fully understood in the ASAC. This study analyses the carbon stocks in the ASAC during 1980 - 2020 using the specific arid ecosystem model (AEM), and investigates the effects of LUCC and climate change on carbon stock trends. The results indicate that in the past 41 years, the ASAC carbon pool experienced an overall growth trend, with an increase of 182.03 g C/m2. Climatic factors (+291.99 g C/m2), especially the increase in precipitation, were the main drivers of the carbon pool increase. LUCC decreased the carbon pool (-112.27 g C/m2), mainly due to the decrease in grassland area (-2.77%). The climate-induced carbon sinks were distributed in northern Xinjiang, on the Ordos Plateau, and in Northeast China, while the LUCC-induced carbon sinks mainly occurred on the Ordos Plateau and the North China Plain, resulting in a net decrease in carbon sequestration in these regions according to carbon pool measurements. The study revealed that the combination of climate variability, LUCC, and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration resulted in an increase of approximately 182.03 g C/m2, which was mainly distributed in eastern Inner Mongolia and the western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our findings are essential for improving theoretical guidance to protect the ecological environment, rationally plan land use, and understand the sustainable development of arid and semiarid zones.

Keywords: AEM, climate change, LUCC, carbon stocks

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Authors: A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

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The change in orbit evolution between collocated satellites (X, Y) inside +/-0.09 ° E/W and +/- 0.07 ° N/S cluster, after one of these satellites is placed in an inclined orbit (satellite X) and the effect of this change in the collocation safety inside the cluster window has been studied and evaluated. Several collocation scenarios had been studied in order to adjust the location of both satellites inside their cluster to maximize the separation between them and safe the mission.

Keywords: satellite, GEO, collocation, risk assessment

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Authors: Niamh Herlihy, Helen Fischer, Rainer Sauerborn, Anneliese Depoux, Avner Bar-Hen, Antoine Flauhault, Stefanie Schütte

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In the recent decades, there has been an increase in the number of publications both in the scientific and grey literature on the potential health risks associated with climate change. Though interest in climate change and health is growing, there are still many gaps to adequately assess our future health needs in a warmer world. Generating a greater understanding of the health impacts of climate change could be a key step in inciting the changes necessary to decelerate global warming and to target new strategies to mitigate the consequences on health systems. A long term and broad overview of existing scientific literature in the field of climate change and health is currently missing in order to ensure that all priority areas are being adequately addressed. We conducted a scoping review of published peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health from two large databases, PubMed and Web of Science, between 1990 and 2015. A scoping review allowed for a broad analysis of this complex topic on a meta-level as opposed to a thematically refined literature review. A detailed search strategy including specific climate and health terminology was used to search the two databases. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied in order to capture the most relevant literature on the human health impact of climate change within the chosen timeframe. Two reviewers screened the papers independently and any differences arising were resolved by a third party. Data was extracted, categorized and coded both manually and using R software. Analytics and infographics were developed from results. There were 7269 articles identified between the two databases following the removal of duplicates. After screening of the articles by both reviewers 3751 were included. As expected, preliminary results indicate that the number of publications on the topic has increased over time. Geographically, the majority of publications address the impact of climate change and health in Europe and North America, This is particularly alarming given that countries in the Global South will bear the greatest health burden. Concerning health outcomes, infectious diseases, particularly dengue fever and other mosquito transmitted infections are the most frequently cited. We highlight research gaps in certain areas e.g climate migration and mental health issues. We are developing a database of the identified climate change and health publications and are compiling a report for publication and dissemination of the findings. As health is a major co-beneficiary to climate change mitigation strategies, our results may serve as a useful source of information for research funders and investors when considering future research needs as well as the cost-effectiveness of climate change strategies. This study is part of an interdisciplinary project called 4CHealth that confronts results of the research done on scientific, political and press literature to better understand how the knowledge on climate change and health circulates within those different fields and whether and how it is translated to real world change.

Keywords: climate change, health, review, mapping

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Authors: Zhoucheng Bao, Haiyan Zhu, Tingting Pang, Zuling Wang

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This paper proposes a multi-population DE with adaptive mutation and local search for global optimization, named AMMADE. In order to better coordinate the cooperation between the populations and the rational use of resources. In AMMADE, the population is divided based on the Euclidean distance sorting method at each generation to appropriately coordinate the cooperation between subpopulations and the usage of resources, such that the best-performed subpopulation will get more computing resources in the next generation. Further, an adaptive local search strategy is employed on the best-performed subpopulation to achieve a balanced search. The proposed algorithm has been tested by solving optimization problems taken from CEC2014 benchmark problems. Experimental results show that our algorithm can achieve a competitive or better than related methods. The results also confirm the significance of devised strategies in the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: differential evolution, multi-mutation strategies, memetic algorithm, adaptive local search

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Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

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Climate change is continuously affecting the ecosystem, species distribution as well as global biodiversity. The assessment of the species potential distribution and the spatial changes under various climate change scenarios is a significant step towards the conservation and mitigation of habitat shifts, and species' loss and vulnerability. In this context, the present study aimed to predict the influence of current and future climate on an ecologically vulnerable medicinal species, Garcinia gummi-gutta, of the southern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. The future projections were made for the period of 2050 and 2070 with RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario of 4.5 and 8.5 using 84 species occurrence data, and climatic variables from three different models of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment. Climatic variables contributions were assessed using jackknife test and AOC value 0.888 indicates the model perform with high accuracy. The major influencing variables will be annual precipitation, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of driest quarter. The model result shows that the current high potential distribution of the species is around 1.90% of the study area, 7.78% is good potential; about 90.32% is moderate to very low potential for species suitability. Finally, the results of all model represented that there will be a drastic decline in the suitable habitat distribution by 2050 and 2070 for all the RCP scenarios. The study signifies that MaxEnt model might be an efficient tool for ecosystem management, biodiversity protection, and species re-habitation planning under climate change.

Keywords: Garcinia gummi gutta, maximum entropy modeling, medicinal plants, climate change, western ghats, MaxEnt

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Authors: Nada Basset

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Problem Statement: The study examines the important role of leading change inside start-ups and highlights the challenges faced by an entrepreneur during the startup phase of the business. Research Methods/Procedures/Approaches: A qualitative research approach is taken, using the case study analysis method. A comparative study was made between two day care nurseries in Greater Cairo. Non-probability purposive sampling was used and a triangulation of semi-structured interviews, document analysis and participant-observation were applied simultaneously. The in-depth case study analysis took place over a longitudinal study of four calendar months. Results/Findings: Findings demonstrated that leading change in an entrepreneurial setup must be initiated by the entrepreneur, who must also be the owner of the change process. Another important finding showed that the culture of change, although created by the entrepreneur, needs the support and engagement of followers, who should be sharing the same value system and vision of the entrepreneur. Conclusions and Implications: An important implication suggests that during the first year of a start-up lifecycle, special emphasis must be made to the recruitment and selection of personnel, who should play a role into setting the new start-up culture and help it grow or shrink. Another drawn conclusion is that the success of the change must be measured in both quantitative and qualitative terms. Increasing revenues and customer attrition rates -as quantitative KPIs- must be aligned with other qualitative KPIs like customer satisfaction, employee satisfaction, and organizational commitment and business reputation. Originality of Paper: The paper addresses change management in an entrepreneurial concept, with an empirical application on an Egyptian start-up model providing a service to both adults and children. This privileges the research as the constructs measured merged together the level of satisfaction of employees, decision-makers (parents of children), and the users (children).

Keywords: leadership, change management, entrepreneurship, startup business

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Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Bierhals, Francisco Pereira, José Leandro Néris, Matheus Rippel, Luciane Salvi

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The global concern about climate change has been increasing, since the emission of gases from human activities contributes to the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, indicating significant impacts to the planet in the coming years. The study of precipitation regime is fundamental for the development of research in several areas. Among them are hydrology, agriculture, and electric sector. Using the climatic projections of the models belonging to the CMIP5, the main objective of the paper was to present an analysis of the impacts of climate change without rainfall in the Uruguay River basin. After an analysis of the results, it can be observed that for the future climate, there is a tendency, in relation to the present climate, for larger numbers of dry events, mainly in the winter months, changing the pluviometric regime for wet summers and drier winters. Given this projected framework, it is important to note the importance of adequate management of the existing water sources in the river basin, since the value of rainfall is reduced for the next years, it may compromise the dynamics of the ecosystems in the region. Facing climate change is fundamental issue for regions and cities all around the world. Society must improve its resilience to phenomenon impacts, and spreading the knowledge among decision makers and citizens is also essential. So, these research results can be subsidies for the decision-making in planning and management of mitigation measures and/or adaptation in south Brazil.

Keywords: climate change, hydrological potential, precipitation, mitigation

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Authors: Rudra Prasad Khanal

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Introduction: Non-communicable disease, such as cancer, has spread all over the world for some last decades. However, every nation has experienced a burden from the development of technology. In the context of Nepal, 10 to 15 thousand new cancer incidences are being registered in different hospitals for treatment. Since the date of starting nuclear medicine at Bir Hospital in 1998, cancer patients have been getting treatment regularly. According to the data of the population-based cancer registry, approximately 60% of the population having a middle-class income is being affected by cancer in Nepal. Methods and Materials: The study is aimed to find out the particular place where the population density of new cancer incidence is highest in Nepal and to inform the concerned regulatory body that is working on cancer screening and early detection for the proper treatment from the beginning. In order to identify the areas with the highest population density of new cancer incidence, all the data of cancer patients were collected from five different renowned hospitals and also from the population-based cancer registry center and then analyzed the data. The history of cancer patients was studied from 2003 to 2020, but here the data are analyzed from 2015 to 2020 only to find the latest trend in cancer incidence. Results: In the five major hospitals in Nepal, the total new cancer incidence was 61783 from 2015 to 2020. Out of those, 34617 were female, and 27176 were male. This research shows that female cancer patients were more every year. In the male, lung cancer patients more than cancer of other organs, but in females, the number of breast cancer patients was greatest. The age-adjusted mortality rate for males in Kathmandu valley was 36.3, and for females was 27.0 per 100,000 population. The cancer incidence and mortality rate were slightly lesser in other districts of Nepal. This rate increased with the increase in the age of people. Over 60 years, cancer incidence and mortality rates have been found to increase rapidly. Conclusion: This research supports conducting the program of cancer screening and early detection at Kathmandu valley with high priority and then Morang, Rukum, SSDM, etc., to control cancer.

Keywords: cancer incidence, research scholar, Tribhuvan University, Bhaktapur Cancer Hospital, Nepal

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Authors: Mónica Arroyo

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South America shows increasing decline in regional export values in the last years, after a strong growth of trade flows especially with China up to 2013. This change is due to the end of the commodity price boom, the slowing of the Chinese economy and the effects of the 2008 economic crisis. This paper examines the integration of regional economies in this context, particularly the situation in Brazil and Argentina. Based on transformations over the last two decades, the analysis is focused on the spatial circuits of production linked to foreign markets, contributing to the understanding of the different uses of territory and the within-country inequality. The South American regional exports, consisting basically of raw materials, are concentrated in a few companies. Large areas are intended for the production of agriculture and mining commodities, under the command of major economic groups, both domestic and foreign, relegating the local population to less productive places or, in most cases, forcing them to change their activity and to migrate to other regions in search of some source of income. On the other hand, the dynamics of these commodities’ spatial circuits of production print requirements in territories in terms of infrastructure and regulation. Capturing this movement requires understanding businesses and government’s role in territorial regulation, and consequently how regional systems are changing – for instance, economic specialisation, growing role of services, investment in roads, railways, ports, and airports. This paper aims to highlight topics for discussion on regional economic dynamics and their different degrees of internationalisation. The intention is to contribute to the debate about the relations between trade, globalization, and development.

Keywords: regional inequality, international trade, developing world, South America

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Authors: Meng-Hao Chen, Jeng-Der Huang, Chia-Ray Chen

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With the new space mission need of high power dissipation, low thermal inertia and cyclical operation unit, such as high power amplifier (HPA) for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite, the development of phase change material (PCM) technology seems to be a proper solution. Generally, the expected benefit of PCM solution is to eliminate temperature variation and maintain the stability of electronic units by using the latent heat during phase change process. It can also result in advantages of decreased radiator area and heater power. However, the PCMs have a drawback of low thermal conductivity that leads to large temperature gradient between the heat source and PCM. This paper thus presents both experimental and simplified numerical investigations on configuration design of PCM’s container. A comparison was carried out between the container with and without internal pin-fins structure. The results showed the benefit of pin-fins that act as the heat transfer enhancer to improve the temperature uniformity during phase transition. Furthermore, thermal testing and measurements were presented for four PCM candidates (i.e. n-octadecane, n-eicosane, glycerin and gallium). The solidification and supercooling behaviors on different PCMs were compared with available literature data and discussed in this study

Keywords: phase change material (PCM), thermal control, solidification, supercooling

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Authors: Waseem Akram, Hafiz Azhar Ali Khan

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Unplanned urbanization together with change in life from simple to more technologically advanced style with flow of rural masses to urban areas has played a vital role in pilling loads of solid wastes in our environment. The cities and towns have expanded beyond boundaries. Even the uncontrolled population expansion has caused the overall environmental burden. Thus, today the indifference remains as one of the biggest trash that has come up due to the non-responsive behavior of the people. Everyday huge amount of solid waste is thrown in the streets, on the roads, parks, and in all those places that are frequently and often visited by the human beings. This behavior based response in many countries of the world has led to serious health concerns and environmental issues. Over 80% of our products that are sold in the market are packed in plastic bags. None of the bags are later recycled but simply become a permanent environment concern that flies, choke lines or are burnt and release toxic gases in the environment or form dumps of heaps. Lack of classification of the daily waste generated from houses and other places lead to worst clogging of the sewerage lines and formation of ponding areas which ultimately favor vector borne disease and sometimes become a cause of transmission of polio virus. Solid waste heaps were checked at different places of the cities. All of the wastes on visual assessments were classified into plastic bags, papers, broken plastic pots, clay pots, steel boxes, wrappers etc. All solid waste dumping sites in the cities and wastes that were thrown outside of the trash containers usually contained wrappers, plastic bags, and unconsumed food products. Insect populations seen in these sites included the house flies, bugs, cockroaches and mosquito larvae breeding in water filled wrappers, containers or plastic bags. The population of the mosquitoes, cockroaches and houseflies were relatively very high in dumping sites close to human population. This population has been associated with cases like dengue, malaria, dysentery, gastro and also to skin allergies during the monsoon and summer season. Thus, dumping of the huge amount of solid wastes in and near the residential areas results into serious environmental concerns, bad smell circulation, and health related issues. In some places, the same waste is burnt to get rid of mosquitoes through smoke which ultimately releases toxic material in the atmosphere. Therefore, a proper environmental strategy is needed to minimize environmental burden and promote concepts of recycled products and thus, reduce the disease burden.

Keywords: solid waste accumulation, disease burden, mosquitoes, vector borne diseases

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Authors: Saima Akbar, Tahseen Ullah Khan

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The analysis of the climate change impact on flood frequency represents an important issue for water resource management and flood risk mitigation. This research was conducted to address the effects of climate change on flood incidents of Pakistan and find out gaps in existing policies to reducing the environmental aspects on floods and effects of global warming. The main objective of this research was to critically analyses the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and Vision 2025, as an effective policy document which is not only hitting the target of a climate resilient Pakistan but provides room for efficient and flexible policy implementation. The methodology integrates projected changes in monsoon patterns (since last 20 years and overall change in rainfall pattern since 1901 to 2015 from Pakistan Metrological Department), glacier melting, decreasing dam capacity and lacks in existing policies by using SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats) model in order to explore the relative impacts of global warming on the system performance. Results indicate the impacts of climate change are significant, but probably not large enough to justify a major effort for adapting the physical infrastructure to expected climatic conditions in Vision 2025 which is our shared destination to progress, ultimate aspiration to see Pakistan among the ten largest economies of the world by 2047– the centennial year of our independence. The conclusion of this research was to adapt sustainable measures to reduce flood impacts and make policies as neighboring countries are adapting for their sustainability.

Keywords: climatic factors, monsoon, Pakistan, sustainability

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Authors: Sehba Saleem

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A country with a spread of only 2.4 percent of the total land surface area of the world, India is home to 17.5 percent of the world population. This fact is sufficient enough to delineate as well as simultaneously bringing to fore the paradox which exists between land and human population. It is evident that the relation which exists between both is an unequal one where the latter has the ability to multiply self, but the former remains constant. This unequal relation that exists has very significantly contributed to the depletion in the quality of land. This is because construction of every kind and nature has been forced on the land to assimilate the ever increasing population which has altered the not only the land but the environment which existed on the land. To get behind this alteration, it becomes imperative to delve into concepts like urbanization, ecology and their amalgam viz. urban ecology. The concept of urban ecology does not only involve study of buildings, flora, and fauna which exists in a given land space. It goes further into establishing a relation between construction on land and the consequent harm, which the same is causing to the environmental resources like air, water etc. This paper shall try cerebrating concepts of urbanization, ecology and urban ecology in the light of relation which exists between man and nature.

Keywords: asymmetrical growth, environment, urbanisation, urban space

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Authors: Zohra Mhedhbi, Meheret Gaston, Sinda Haoues-Jouve, Julia Hidalgo, Pierre Mazzega

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In the current context of climate change, supporting national and local stakeholders to make climate-smart decisions is necessary but still underdeveloped in many countries. To overcome this problem, the Global Frameworks for Climate Services (GFCS), implemented under the aegis of the United Nations in 2012, has initiated many programs in different countries. The GFCS contributes to the development of Climate Services, an instrument based on the production and transfer of scientific climate knowledge for specific users such as citizens, urban planning actors, or agricultural professionals. As cities concentrate on economic, social and environmental issues that make them more vulnerable to climate change, the New Urban Agenda (NUA), adopted at Habitat III in October 2016, highlights the importance of paying particular attention to disaster risk management, climate and environmental sustainability and urban resilience. In order to support the implementation of the NUA, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has identified the urban dimension as one of its priorities and has proposed a new tool, the Integrated Urban Services (IUS), for more sustainable and resilient cities. In the southern countries, there’s a lack of development of climate services, which can be partially explained by problems related to their economic financing. In addition, it is often difficult to make climate change a priority in urban planning, given the more traditional urban challenges these countries face, such as massive poverty, high population growth, etc. Climate services and Integrated Urban Services, particularly in African cities, are expected to contribute to the sustainable development of cities. These tools will help promoting the acquisition of meteorological and socio-ecological data on their transformations, encouraging coordination between national or local institutions providing various sectoral urban services, and should contribute to the achievement of the objectives defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the Paris Agreement, and the Sustainable Development Goals. To assess the state of the art on these various points, the Web of Science metadatabase is queried. With a query combining the keywords "climate*" and "urban*", more than 24,000 articles are identified, source of more than 40,000 distinct keywords (but including synonyms and acronyms) which finely mesh the conceptual field of research. The occurrence of one or more names of the 514 African cities of more than 100,000 inhabitants or countries, reduces this base to a smaller corpus of about 1410 articles (2990 keywords). 41 countries and 136 African cities are cited. The lexicometric analysis of the metadata of the articles and the analysis of the structural indicators (various centralities) of the networks induced by the co-occurrence of expressions related more specifically to climate services show the development potential of these services, identify the gaps which remain to be filled for their implementation and allow to compare the diversity of national and regional situations with regard to these services.

Keywords: African cities, climate change, climate services, integrated urban services, lexicometry, networks, urban planning, web of science

Procedia PDF Downloads 190