Search results for: modeling and simulation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7935

Search results for: modeling and simulation

855 Probabilistic Building Life-Cycle Planning as a Strategy for Sustainability

Authors: Rui Calejo Rodrigues

Abstract:

Building Refurbishing and Maintenance is a major area of knowledge ultimately dispensed to user/occupant criteria. The optimization of the service life of a building needs a special background to be assessed as it is one of those concepts that needs proficiency to be implemented. ISO 15686-2 Buildings and constructed assets - Service life planning: Part 2, Service life prediction procedures, states a factorial method based on deterministic data for building components life span. Major consequences result on a deterministic approach because users/occupants are not sensible to understand the end of components life span and so simply act on deterministic periods and so costly and resources consuming solutions do not meet global targets of planet sustainability. The estimation of 2 thousand million conventional buildings in the world, if submitted to a probabilistic method for service life planning rather than a deterministic one provide an immense amount of resources savings. Since 1989 the research team nowadays stating for CEES–Center for Building in Service Studies developed a methodology based on Montecarlo method for probabilistic approach regarding life span of building components, cost and service life care time spans. The research question of this deals with the importance of probabilistic approach of buildings life planning compared with deterministic methods. It is presented the mathematic model developed for buildings probabilistic lifespan approach and experimental data is obtained to be compared with deterministic data. Assuming that buildings lifecycle depends a lot on component replacement this methodology allows to conclude on the global impact of fixed replacements methodologies such as those on result of deterministic models usage. Major conclusions based on conventional buildings estimate are presented and evaluated under a sustainable perspective.

Keywords: building components life cycle, building maintenance, building sustainability, Montecarlo Simulation

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854 Energy System Analysis Using Data-Driven Modelling and Bayesian Methods

Authors: Paul Rowley, Adam Thirkill, Nick Doylend, Philip Leicester, Becky Gough

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The dynamic performance of all energy generation technologies is impacted to varying degrees by the stochastic properties of the wider system within which the generation technology is located. This stochasticity can include the varying nature of ambient renewable energy resources such as wind or solar radiation, or unpredicted changes in energy demand which impact upon the operational behaviour of thermal generation technologies. An understanding of these stochastic impacts are especially important in contexts such as highly distributed (or embedded) generation, where an understanding of issues affecting the individual or aggregated performance of high numbers of relatively small generators is especially important, such as in ESCO projects. Probabilistic evaluation of monitored or simulated performance data is one technique which can provide an insight into the dynamic performance characteristics of generating systems, both in a prognostic sense (such as the prediction of future performance at the project’s design stage) as well as in a diagnostic sense (such as in the real-time analysis of underperforming systems). In this work, we describe the development, application and outcomes of a new approach to the acquisition of datasets suitable for use in the subsequent performance and impact analysis (including the use of Bayesian approaches) for a number of distributed generation technologies. The application of the approach is illustrated using a number of case studies involving domestic and small commercial scale photovoltaic, solar thermal and natural gas boiler installations, and the results as presented show that the methodology offers significant advantages in terms of plant efficiency prediction or diagnosis, along with allied environmental and social impacts such as greenhouse gas emission reduction or fuel affordability.

Keywords: renewable energy, dynamic performance simulation, Bayesian analysis, distributed generation

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853 Define Immersive Need Level for Optimal Adoption of Virtual Words with BIM Methodology

Authors: Simone Balin, Cecilia M. Bolognesi, Paolo Borin

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In the construction industry, there is a large amount of data and interconnected information. To manage this information effectively, a transition to the immersive digitization of information processes is required. This transition is important to improve knowledge circulation, product quality, production sustainability and user satisfaction. However, there is currently a lack of a common definition of immersion in the construction industry, leading to misunderstandings and limiting the use of advanced immersive technologies. Furthermore, the lack of guidelines and a common vocabulary causes interested actors to abandon the virtual world after the first collaborative steps. This research aims to define the optimal use of immersive technologies in the AEC sector, particularly for collaborative processes based on the BIM methodology. Additionally, the research focuses on creating classes and levels to structure and define guidelines and a vocabulary for the use of the " Immersive Need Level." This concept, matured by recent technological advancements, aims to enable a broader application of state-of-the-art immersive technologies, avoiding misunderstandings, redundancies, or paradoxes. While the concept of "Informational Need Level" has been well clarified with the recent UNI EN 17412-1:2021 standard, when it comes to immersion, current regulations and literature only provide some hints about the technology and related equipment, leaving the procedural approach and the user's free interpretation completely unexplored. Therefore, once the necessary knowledge and information are acquired (Informational Need Level), it is possible to transition to an Immersive Need Level that involves the practical application of the acquired knowledge, exploring scenarios and solutions in a more thorough and detailed manner, with user involvement, via different immersion scales, in the design, construction or management process of a building or infrastructure. The need for information constitutes the basis for acquiring relevant knowledge and information, while the immersive need can manifest itself later, once a solid information base has been solidified, using the senses and developing immersive awareness. This new approach could solve the problem of inertia among AEC industry players in adopting and experimenting with new immersive technologies, expanding collaborative iterations and the range of available options.

Keywords: AECindustry, immersive technology (IMT), virtual reality, augmented reality, building information modeling (BIM), decision making, collaborative process, information need level, immersive level of need

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852 Chemical Kinetics and Computational Fluid-Dynamics Analysis of H2/CO/CO2/CH4 Syngas Combustion and NOx Formation in a Micro-Pilot-Ignited Supercharged Dual Fuel Engine

Authors: Ulugbek Azimov, Nearchos Stylianidis, Nobuyuki Kawahara, Eiji Tomita

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A chemical kinetics and computational fluid-dynamics (CFD) analysis was performed to evaluate the combustion of syngas derived from biomass and coke-oven solid feedstock in a micro-pilot ignited supercharged dual-fuel engine under lean conditions. For this analysis, a new reduced syngas chemical kinetics mechanism was constructed and validated by comparing the ignition delay and laminar flame speed data with those obtained from experiments and other detail chemical kinetics mechanisms available in the literature. The reaction sensitivity analysis was conducted for ignition delay at elevated pressures in order to identify important chemical reactions that govern the combustion process. The chemical kinetics of NOx formation was analyzed for H2/CO/CO2/CH4 syngas mixtures by using counter flow burner and premixed laminar flame speed reactor models. The new mechanism showed a very good agreement with experimental measurements and accurately reproduced the effect of pressure, temperature and equivalence ratio on NOx formation. In order to identify the species important for NOx formation, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for pressures 4 bar, 10 bar and 16 bar and preheat temperature 300 K. The results show that the NOx formation is driven mostly by hydrogen based species while other species, such as N2, CO2 and CH4, have also important effects on combustion. Finally, the new mechanism was used in a multidimensional CFD simulation to predict the combustion of syngas in a micro-pilot-ignited supercharged dual-fuel engine and results were compared with experiments. The mechanism showed the closest prediction of the in-cylinder pressure and the rate of heat release (ROHR).

Keywords: syngas, chemical kinetics mechanism, internal combustion engine, NOx formation

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851 Relative Importance of Different Mitochondrial Components in Maintaining the Barrier Integrity of Retinal Endothelial Cells: Implications for Vascular-associated Retinal Diseases

Authors: Shaimaa Eltanani, Thangal Yumnamcha, Ahmed S. Ibrahim

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Purpose: Mitochondria dysfunction is central to breaking the barrier integrity of retinal endothelial cells (RECs) in various blinding eye diseases such as diabetic retinopathy and retinopathy of prematurity. Therefore, we aimed to dissect the role of different mitochondrial components, specifically, those of oxidative phosphorylation (OxPhos), in maintaining the barrier function of RECs. Methods: Electric cell-substrate impedance sensing (ECIS) technology was used to assess in real-time the role of different mitochondrial components in the total impedance (Z) of human RECs (HRECs) and its components; the capacitance (C) and the total resistance (R). HRECs were treated with specific mitochondrial inhibitors that target different steps in OxPhos: Rotenone for complex I; Oligomycin for ATP synthase; and FCCP for uncoupling OxPhos. Furthermore, data were modeled to investigate the effects of these inhibitors on the three parameters that govern the total resistance of cells: cell-cell interactions (Rb), cell-matrix interactions (α), and cell membrane permeability (Cm). Results: Rotenone (1 µM) produced the greatest reduction in the Z, followed by FCCP (1 µM), whereas no reduction in the Z was observed after the treatment with Oligomycin (1 µM). Following this further, we deconvoluted the effect of these inhibitors on Rb, α, and Cm. Firstly, rotenone (1 µM) completely abolished the resistance contribution of Rb, as the Rb became zero immediately after the treatment. Secondly, FCCP (1 µM) eliminated the resistance contribution of Rb only after 2.5 hours and increased Cm without considerable effect on α. Lastly, Oligomycin had the lowest impact among these inhibitors on Rb, which became similar to the control group at the end of the experiment without noticeable effects on Cm or α. Conclusion: These results demonstrate differential roles for complex I, complex V, and coupling of OxPhos in maintaining the barrier functionality of HRECs, in which complex I being the most important component in regulating the barrier functionality and the spreading behavior of HRECs. Such differences can be used in investigating gene expression as well as for screening selective agents that improve the functionality of complex I to be used in the therapeutic approach for treating REC-related retinal diseases.

Keywords: human retinal endothelial cells (hrecs), rotenone, oligomycin, fccp, oxidative phosphorylation, oxphos, capacitance, impedance, ecis modeling, rb resistance, α resistance, and barrier integrity

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850 The Relationship between Proximity to Sources of Industrial-Related Outdoor Air Pollution and Children Emergency Department Visits for Asthma in the Census Metropolitan Area of Edmonton, Canada, 2004/2005 to 2009/2010

Authors: Laura A. Rodriguez-Villamizar, Alvaro Osornio-Vargas, Brian H. Rowe, Rhonda J. Rosychuk

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Introduction/Objectives: The Census Metropolitan Area of Edmonton (CMAE) has important industrial emissions to the air from the Industrial Heartland Alberta (IHA) at the Northeast and the coal-fired power plants (CFPP) at the West. The objective of the study was to explore the presence of clusters of children asthma ED visits in the areas around the IHA and the CFPP. Methods: Retrospective data on children asthma ED visits was collected at the dissemination area (DA) level for children between 2 and 14 years of age, living in the CMAE between April 1, 2004, and March 31, 2010. We conducted a spatial analysis of disease clusters around putative sources with count (ecological) data using descriptive, hypothesis testing, and multivariable modeling analysis. Results: The mean crude rate of asthma ED visits was 9.3/1,000 children population per year during the study period. Circular spatial scan test for cases and events identified a cluster of children asthma ED visits in the DA where the CFPP are located in the Wabamum area. No clusters were identified around the IHA area. The multivariable models suggest that there is a significant decline in risk for children asthma ED visits as distance increases around the CFPP area this effect is modified at the SE direction with mean angle 125.58 degrees, where the risk increases with distance. In contrast, the regression models for IHA suggest that there is a significant increase in risk for children asthma ED visits as distance increases around the IHA area and this effect is modified at SW direction with mean angle 216.52 degrees, where the risk increases at shorter distances. Conclusions: Different methods for detecting clusters of disease consistently suggested the existence of a cluster of children asthma ED visits around the CFPP but not around the IHA within the CMAE. These results are probably explained by the direction of the air pollutants dispersion caused by the predominant and subdominant wind direction at each point. The use of different approaches to detect clusters of disease is valuable to have a better understanding of the presence, shape, direction and size of clusters of disease around pollution sources.

Keywords: air pollution, asthma, disease cluster, industry

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849 Impact of Gold Mining on Crop Production, Livelihood and Environmental Sustainability in West Africa in the Context of Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Authors: Yusif Habib

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The Volta River Basin (VRB) is a transboundary resource shared by Six (6) the West African States. It’s utilization spans across irrigation, hydropower generation, domestic/household water use, transportation, industrial processing, among others. Simultaneously, mineral resources such as gold are mined within the VRB catchment. Typically, the extraction/mining operation is earth-surface excavation; known as Artisanal and Small-scale mining. We developed a conceptual framework in the context of Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus to delineate the trade-offs and synergies between the mineral extractive operation’s impact on Agricultural systems, specifically, cereal crops (e.g. Maize, Millet, and Rice) and the environment (water and soil quality, deforestation, etc.) on the VRB. Thus, the study examined the trade-offs and synergies through the WEF nexus lens to explore the extent of an eventual overarching mining preference for gold exploration with high economic returns as opposed to the presumably low yearly harvest and household income from food crops production to inform intervention prioritization. Field survey (household, expert, and stakeholder consultation), bibliometric analysis/literature review, scenario, and simulation models, including land-use land cover (LULC) analyses, were conducted. The selected study area(s) in Ghana was the location where the mineral extractive operation’s presence and impact are widespread co-exist with the Agricultural systems. Overall, the study proposes mechanisms of the virtuous cycle through FEW Nexus instead of the presumably existing vicious cycle to inform decision making and policy implementation.

Keywords: agriculture, environmental sustainability, gold Mining, synergies, trade-off, water-energy-food nexus

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848 DFT and SCAPS Analysis of an Efficient Lead-Free Inorganic CsSnI₃ Based Perovskite Solar Cell by Modification of Hole Transporting Layer

Authors: Seyedeh Mozhgan Seyed Talebi, Chih -Hao Lee

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With an abrupt rise in the power conservation efficiency (PCE) of perovskite solar cells (PSCs) within a short span of time, the toxicity of lead was raised as a major hurdle in the path toward their commercialization. In the present research, a systematic investigation of the electrical and optical characteristics of the all-inorganic CsSnI₃ perovskite absorber layer was performed with the Vienna Ab Initio Simulation Package (VASP) using the projector-augmented wave method. The presence of inorganic halide perovskite offers the advantages of enhancing the degradation resistance of the device, reducing the cost of cells, and minimizing the recombination of generated carriers. The simulated standard device using a 1D simulator like solar cell capacitance simulator (SCAPS) version 3308 involves FTO/n-TiO₂/CsSnI₃ Perovskite absorber/Spiro OmeTAD HTL/Au contact layer. The variation in the device design key parameters such as the thickness and defect density of perovskite absorber, hole transport layer and electron transport layer and interfacial defects are examined with their impact on the photovoltaic characteristic parameters. The effect of an increase in operating temperature from 300 K to 400 K on the performance of CsSnI3-based perovskite devices is also investigated. The optimized standard device at room temperature shows the highest PCE of 25.18 % with FF of 75.71 %, Voc of 0.96 V, and Jsc of 34.67 mA/cm². The outcomes and interpretation of different inorganic Cu-based HTLs presence, such as CuSCN, Cu₂O, CuO, CuI, SrCu₂O₂, and CuSbS₂, here represent a critical avenue for the possibility of fabricating high PCE perovskite devices made of stable, low-cost, efficient, safe, and eco-friendly all-inorganic materials like CsSnI₃ perovskite light absorber.

Keywords: CsSnI₃, hole transporting layer (HTL), lead-free perovskite solar cell, SCAPS-1D software

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847 Sedimentary Response to Coastal Defense Works in São Vicente Bay, São Paulo

Authors: L. C. Ansanelli, P. Alfredini

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The article presents the evaluation of the effectiveness of two groins located at Gonzaguinha and Milionários Beaches, situated on the southeast coast of Brazil. The effectiveness of these coastal defense structures is evaluated in terms of sedimentary dynamics, which is one of the most important environmental processes to be assessed in coastal engineering studies. The applied method is based on the implementation of the Delft3D numerical model system tools. Delft3D-WAVE module was used for waves modelling, Delft3D-FLOW for hydrodynamic modelling and Delft3D-SED for sediment transport modelling. The calibration of the models was carried out in a way that the simulations adequately represent the region studied, evaluating improvements in the model elements with the use of statistical comparisons of similarity between the results and waves, currents and tides data recorded in the study area. Analysis of the maximum wave heights was carried to select the months with higher accumulated energy to implement these conditions in the engineering scenarios. The engineering studies were performed for two scenarios: 1) numerical simulation of the area considering only the two existing groins; 2) conception of breakwaters coupled at the ends of the existing groins, resulting in two “T” shaped structures. The sediment model showed that, for the simulated period, the area is affected by erosive processes and that the existing groins have little effectiveness in defending the coast in question. The implemented T structures showed some effectiveness in protecting the beaches against erosion and provided the recovery of the portion directly covered by it on the Milionários Beach. In order to complement this study, it is suggested the conception of further engineering scenarios that might recover other areas of the studied region.

Keywords: coastal engineering, coastal erosion, Sao Vicente bay, Delft3D, coastal engineering works

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846 A Leader-Follower Kinematic-Based Control System for a Cable-Driven Hyper-Redundant Manipulator

Authors: Abolfazl Zaraki, Yoshikatsu Hayashi, Harry Thorpe, Vincent Strong, Gisle-Andre Larsen, William Holderbaum

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Thanks to the high maneuverability of the cable-driven hyper-redundant manipulators (HRMs), this class of robots has shown a superior capability in highly confined and unstructured space applications. Although the large number of degrees of freedom (DOF) of HRMs enhances the motion flexibility and the robot’s reachability range, it highly increases the complexity of the kinematic configuration which makes the kinematic control problem very challenging or even impossible to solve. This paper presents our current progress achieved on the development of a kinematic-based leader-follower control system which is designed to control not only the robot’s body posture but also to control the trajectory of the robot’s movement in a semi-autonomous manner (the human operator is retained in the robot’s control loop). To obtain the forward kinematic model, the coordinate frames are established by the classical Denavit–Hartenburg (D-H) convention for a hyper-redundant serial manipulator which has a controlled cables-driven mechanism. To solve the inverse kinematics of the robot, unlike the conventional methods, a leader-follower mechanism, based on the sequential inverse kinematic, is followed. Using this mechanism, the inverse kinematic problem is solved for all sequential joints starting from the head joint to the base joint of the robot. To verify the kinematic design and simulate the robot motion, the MATLAB robotic toolbox is used. The simulation result demonstrated the promising capability of the proposed leader-follower control system in controlling the robot motion and trajectory in our confined space application.

Keywords: hyper-redundant robots, kinematic analysis, semi-autonomous control, serial manipulators

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845 Numerical Validation of Liquid Nitrogen Phase Change in a Star-Shaped Ambient Vaporizer

Authors: Yusuf Yilmaz, Gamze Gediz Ilis

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Gas Nitrogen where has a boiling point of -189.52oC at atmospheric pressure widely used in the industry. Nitrogen that used in the industry should be transported in liquid form to the plant area. Ambient air vaporizer (AAV) generally used for vaporization of cryogenic gases such as liquid nitrogen (LN2), liquid oxygen (LOX), liquid natural gas (LNG), and liquid argon (LAR) etc. AAV is a group of star-shaped fin vaporizer. The design and the effect of the shape of fins of the vaporizer is one of the most important criteria for the performance of the vaporizer. In this study, the performance of AAV working with liquid nitrogen was analyzed numerically in a star-shaped aluminum finned pipe. The numerical analysis is performed in order to investigate the heat capacity of the vaporizer per meter pipe length. By this way, the vaporizer capacity can be predicted for the industrial applications. In order to achieve the validation of the numerical solution, the experimental setup is constructed. The setup includes a liquid nitrogen tank with a pressure of 9 bar. The star-shaped aluminum finned tube vaporizer is connected to the LN2 tank. The inlet and the outlet pressure and temperatures of the LN2 of the vaporizer are measured. The mass flow rate of the LN2 is also measured and collected. The comparison of the numerical solution is performed by these measured data. The ambient conditions of the experiment are given as boundary conditions to the numerical model. The surface tension and contact angle have a significant effect on the boiling of liquid nitrogen. Average heat transfer coefficient including convective and nucleated boiling components should be obtained for liquid nitrogen saturated flow boiling in the finned tube. Fluent CFD module is used to simulate the numerical solution. The turbulent k-ε model is taken to simulate the liquid nitrogen flow. The phase change is simulated by using the evaporation-condensation approach used with user-defined functions (UDF). The comparison of the numerical and experimental results will be shared in this study. Besides, the performance capacity of the star-shaped finned pipe vaporizer will be calculated in this study. Based on this numerical analysis, the performance of the vaporizer per unit length can be predicted for the industrial applications and the suitable pipe length of the vaporizer can be found for the special cases.

Keywords: liquid nitrogen, numerical modeling, two-phase flow, cryogenics

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844 Modelling, Simulation, and Experimental Validation of the Influence of Golf-Ball-Inspired Dimpled Design in Drag Reduction and Improved Fuel Efficiency of Super-Mileage Vehicle

Authors: Bibin Sagaram, Ronith Stanly, S. S. Suneesh

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Due to the dwindling supply of fuel reserves, engineers and designers now focus on fuel efficient designs for the solution of any problem; the transportation industry is not new to this kind of approach. Though the aerodynamic benefits of the dimples on a Golf-ball are known, it has never been scientifically tested on how such a design philosophy can improve the fuel efficiency of a real-life vehicle by imparting better aerodynamic performance. The main purpose of the paper is to establish the aerodynamic benefits of the Golf-ball-Inspired Dimpled Design in improving the fuel efficiency of a Super-mileage vehicle, constructed by Team Go Viridis for ‘Shell Eco Marathon Asia 2015’, and to predict the extent to which the results can be held valid for a road car. The body design was modeled in Autodesk Inventor and the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were carried out using Ansys Fluent software. The aerodynamic parameters of designs (with and without the Golf-ball-Inspired Dimples) have been studied and the results are experimentally validated against those obtained from wind tunnel tests carried out on a 1:10 scaled-down 3D printed model. Test drives of the Super-mileage vehicle were carried out, under various conditions, to compare the variation in fuel efficiency with and without the Golf-ball-Inspired design. Primary investigations reveal an aerodynamic advantage of 25% for the vehicle with the Golf Ball Inspired Dimpled Design as opposed to the normal design. Initial tests conducted by ‘Mythbusters’ on Discovery Network using a modified road car has shown positive results which has motivated us to conduct such a research work using a custom-built experimental Super-Mileage vehicle. The content of the paper becomes relevant to the present Automotive and Energy industry where improving the fuel efficiency is of the top most priority.

Keywords: aerodynamics, CFD, fuel efficiency, golf ball

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843 Enhancing Residential Architecture through Generative Design: Balancing Aesthetics, Legal Constraints, and Environmental Considerations

Authors: Milena Nanova, Radul Shishkov, Damyan Damov, Martin Georgiev

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This research paper presents an in-depth exploration of the use of generative design in urban residential architecture, with a dual focus on aligning aesthetic values with legal and environmental constraints. The study aims to demonstrate how generative design methodologies can innovate residential building designs that are not only legally compliant and environmentally conscious but also aesthetically compelling. At the core of our research is a specially developed generative design framework tailored for urban residential settings. This framework employs computational algorithms to produce diverse design solutions, meticulously balancing aesthetic appeal with practical considerations. By integrating site-specific features, urban legal restrictions, and environmental factors, our approach generates designs that resonate with the unique character of urban landscapes while adhering to regulatory frameworks. The paper places emphasis on algorithmic implementation of the logical constraint and intricacies in residential architecture by exploring the potential of generative design to create visually engaging and contextually harmonious structures. This exploration also contains an analysis of how these designs align with legal building parameters, showcasing the potential for creative solutions within the confines of urban building regulations. Concurrently, our methodology integrates functional, economic, and environmental factors. We investigate how generative design can be utilized to optimize buildings' performance, considering them, aiming to achieve a symbiotic relationship between the built environment and its natural surroundings. Through a blend of theoretical research and practical case studies, this research highlights the multifaceted capabilities of generative design and demonstrates practical applications of our framework. Our findings illustrate the rich possibilities that arise from an algorithmic design approach in the context of a vibrant urban landscape. This study contributes an alternative perspective to residential architecture, suggesting that the future of urban development lies in embracing the complex interplay between computational design innovation, regulatory adherence, and environmental responsibility.

Keywords: generative design, computational design, parametric design, algorithmic modeling

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842 Comparing Stability Index MAPping (SINMAP) Landslide Susceptibility Models in the Río La Carbonera, Southeast Flank of Pico de Orizaba Volcano, Mexico

Authors: Gabriel Legorreta Paulin, Marcus I. Bursik, Lilia Arana Salinas, Fernando Aceves Quesada

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In volcanic environments, landslides and debris flows occur continually along stream systems of large stratovolcanoes. This is the case on Pico de Orizaba volcano, the highest mountain in Mexico. The volcano has a great potential to impact and damage human settlements and economic activities by landslides. People living along the lower valleys of Pico de Orizaba volcano are in continuous hazard by the coalescence of upstream landslide sediments that increased the destructive power of debris flows. These debris flows not only produce floods, but also cause the loss of lives and property. Although the importance of assessing such process, there is few landslide inventory maps and landslide susceptibility assessment. As a result in México, no landslide susceptibility models assessment has been conducted to evaluate advantage and disadvantage of models. In this study, a comprehensive study of landslide susceptibility models assessment using GIS technology is carried out on the SE flank of Pico de Orizaba volcano. A detailed multi-temporal landslide inventory map in the watershed is used as framework for the quantitative comparison of two landslide susceptibility maps. The maps are created based on 1) the Stability Index MAPping (SINMAP) model by using default geotechnical parameters and 2) by using findings of volcanic soils geotechnical proprieties obtained in the field. SINMAP combines the factor of safety derived from the infinite slope stability model with the theory of a hydrologic model to produce the susceptibility map. It has been claimed that SINMAP analysis is reasonably successful in defining areas that intuitively appear to be susceptible to landsliding in regions with sparse information. The validations of the resulting susceptibility maps are performed by comparing them with the inventory map under LOGISNET system which provides tools to compare by using a histogram and a contingency table. Results of the experiment allow for establishing how the individual models predict the landslide location, advantages, and limitations. The results also show that although the model tends to improve with the use of calibrated field data, the landslide susceptibility map does not perfectly represent existing landslides.

Keywords: GIS, landslide, modeling, LOGISNET, SINMAP

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841 A Neural Network for the Prediction of Contraction after Burn Injuries

Authors: Ginger Egberts, Marianne Schaaphok, Fred Vermolen, Paul van Zuijlen

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A few years ago, a promising morphoelastic model was developed for the simulation of contraction formation after burn injuries. Contraction can lead to a serious reduction in physical mobility, like a reduction in the range-of-motion of joints. If this is the case in a healing burn wound, then this is referred to as a contracture that needs medical intervention. The morphoelastic model consists of a set of partial differential equations describing both a chemical part and a mechanical part in dermal wound healing. These equations are solved with the numerical finite element method (FEM). In this method, many calculations are required on each of the chosen elements. In general, the more elements, the more accurate the solution. However, the number of elements increases rapidly if simulations are performed in 2D and 3D. In that case, it not only takes longer before a prediction is available, the computation also becomes more expensive. It is therefore important to investigate alternative possibilities to generate the same results, based on the input parameters only. In this study, a surrogate neural network has been designed to mimic the results of the one-dimensional morphoelastic model. The neural network generates predictions quickly, is easy to implement, and there is freedom in the choice of input and output. Because a neural network requires extensive training and a data set, it is ideal that the one-dimensional FEM code generates output quickly. These feed-forward-type neural network results are very promising. Not only can the network give faster predictions, but it also has a performance of over 99%. It reports on the relative surface area of the wound/scar, the total strain energy density, and the evolutions of the densities of the chemicals and mechanics. It is, therefore, interesting to investigate the applicability of a neural network for the two- and three-dimensional morphoelastic model for contraction after burn injuries.

Keywords: biomechanics, burns, feasibility, feed-forward NN, morphoelasticity, neural network, relative surface area wound

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840 House Price Index Predicts a Larger Impact of Habitat Loss than Primary Productivity on the Biodiversity of North American Avian Communities

Authors: Marlen Acosta Alamo, Lisa Manne, Richard Veit

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Habitat loss due to land use change is one of the leading causes of biodiversity loss worldwide. This form of habitat loss is a non-random phenomenon since the same environmental factors that make an area suitable for supporting high local biodiversity overlap with those that make it attractive for urban development. We aimed to compare the effect of two non-random habitat loss predictors on the richness, abundance, and rarity of nature-affiliated and human-affiliated North American breeding birds. For each group of birds, we simulated the non-random habitat loss using two predictors: the House Price Index as a measure of the attractiveness of an area for humans and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a proxy for primary productivity. We compared the results of the two non-random simulation sets and one set of random habitat loss simulations using an analysis of variance and followed up with a Tukey-Kramer test when appropriate. The attractiveness of an area for humans predicted estimates of richness loss and increase of rarity higher than primary productivity and random habitat loss for nature-affiliated and human-affiliated birds. For example, at 50% of habitat loss, the attractiveness of an area for humans produced estimates of richness at least 5% lower and of a rarity at least 40% higher than primary productivity and random habitat loss for both groups of birds. Only for the species abundance of nature-affiliated birds, the attractiveness of an area for humans did not outperform primary productivity as a predictor of biodiversity following habitat loss. We demonstrated the value of the House Price Index, which can be used in conservation assessments as an index of the risks of habitat loss for natural communities. Thus, our results have relevant implications for sustainable urban land-use planning practices and can guide stakeholders and developers in their efforts to conserve local biodiversity.

Keywords: biodiversity loss, bird biodiversity, house price index, non-random habitat loss

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839 Pilot Study of Determining the Impact of Surface Subsidence at The Intersection of Cave Mining with the Surface Using an Electrical Impedance Tomography

Authors: Ariungerel Jargal

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: Cave mining is a bulk underground mining method, which allows large low-grade deposits to be mined underground. This method involves undermining the orebody to make it collapse under its own weight into a series of chambers from which the ore extracted. It is a useful technique to extend the life of large deposits previously mined by open pits, and it is a method increasingly proposed for new mines around the world. We plan to conduct a feasibility study using Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) technology to show how much subsidence there is at the intersection with the cave mining surface. EIT is an imaging technique which uses electrical measurements at electrodes attached on the body surface to yield a cross-sectional image of conductivity changes within the object. EIT has been developed in several different applications areas as a simpler, cheaper alternative to many other imaging methods. A low frequency current is injected between pairs of electrodes while voltage measurements are collected at all other electrode pairs. In the difference EIT, images are reconstructed of the change in conductivity distribution (σ) between the acquisition of the two sets of measurements. Image reconstruction in EIT requires the solution of an ill-conditioned nonlinear inverse problem on noisy data, typically requiring make simpler assumptions or regularization. It is noted that the ratio of current to voltage represents a complex value according to Ohm’s law, and that it is theoretically possible to re-express EIT. The results of the experiment were presented on the simulation, and it was concluded that it is possible to conduct further real experiments. Drill a certain number of holes in the top wall of the cave to attach the electrodes, flow a current through them, and measure and acquire the potential through these electrodes. Appropriate values should be selected depending on the distance between the holes, the frequency and duration of the measurements, the surface characteristics and the size of the study area using an EIT device.

Keywords: impedance tomography, cave mining, soil, EIT device

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838 Erosion Influencing Factors Analysis: Case of Isser Watershed (North-West Algeria)

Authors: Chahrazed Salhi, Ayoub Zeroual, Yasmina Hamitouche

Abstract:

Soil water erosion poses a significant threat to the watersheds in Algeria today. The degradation of storage capacity in large dams over the past two decades, primarily due to erosion, necessitates a comprehensive understanding of the factors that contribute to soil erosion. The Isser watershed, located in the Northwestern region of Algeria, faces additional challenges such as recurrent droughts and the presence of delicate marl and clay outcrops, which amplify its susceptibility to water erosion. This study aims to employ advanced techniques such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS), in conjunction with the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) method and Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, to predict specific erosion patterns and analyze the key factors influencing erosion in the Isser basin. To accomplish this, an array of data sources including rainfall, climatic, hydrometric, land use, soil, digital elevation, and satellite data were utilized. The application of the SWAT model to the Isser basin yielded an average annual soil loss of approximately 16 t/ha/year. Particularly high erosion rates, exceeding 12 T/ha/year, were observed in the central and southern parts of the basin, encompassing 41% of the total basin area. Through Canonical Correlation Analysis, it was determined that vegetation cover and topography exerted the most substantial influence on erosion. Consequently, the study identified significant and spatially heterogeneous erosion throughout the study area. The impact of land topography on soil loss was found to be directly proportional, while vegetation cover exhibited an inverse proportional relationship. Modeling specific erosion for the Ladrat dam sub-basin estimated a rate of around 39 T/ha/year, thus accounting for the recorded capacity loss of 17.80% compared to the bathymetric survey conducted in 2019. The findings of this research provide valuable decision-support tools for soil conservation managers, empowering them to make informed decisions regarding soil conservation measures.

Keywords: Isser watershed, RS, CCA, SWAT, vegetation cover, topography

Procedia PDF Downloads 51
837 Application of Mathematical Models for Conducting Long-Term Metal Fume Exposure Assessments for Workers in a Shipbuilding Factory

Authors: Shu-Yu Chung, Ying-Fang Wang, Shih-Min Wang

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To conduct long-term exposure assessments are important for workers exposed to chemicals with chronic effects. However, it usually encounters with several constrains, including cost, workers' willingness, and interference to work practice, etc., leading to inadequate long-term exposure data in the real world. In this study, an integrated approach was developed for conducting long-term exposure assessment for welding workers in a shipbuilding factory. A laboratory study was conducted to yield the fume generation rates under various operating conditions. The results and the measured environmental conditions were applied to the near field/far field (NF/FF) model for predicting long term fume exposures via the Monte Carlo simulation. Then, the predicted long-term concentrations were used to determine the prior distribution in Bayesian decision analysis (BDA). Finally, the resultant posterior distributions were used to assess the long-term exposure and serve as basis for initiating control strategies for shipbuilding workers. Results show that the NF/FF model was a suitable for predicting the exposures of metal contents containing in welding fume. The resultant posterior distributions could effectively assess the long-term exposures of shipbuilding welders. Welders' long-term Fe, Mn and Pb exposures were found with high possibilities to exceed the action level indicating preventive measures should be taken for reducing welders' exposures immediately. Though the resultant posterior distribution can only be regarded as the best solution based on the currently available predicting and monitoring data, the proposed integrated approach can be regarded as a possible solution for conducting long term exposure assessment in the field.

Keywords: Bayesian decision analysis, exposure assessment, near field and far field model, shipbuilding industry, welding fume

Procedia PDF Downloads 122
836 A Method Development for Improving the Efficiency of Solid Waste Collection System Using Network Analyst

Authors: Dhvanidevi N. Jadeja, Daya S. Kaul, Anurag A. Kandya

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Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) collection in a city is performed in less effective manner which results in the poor management of the environment and natural resources. Municipal corporation does not possess efficient waste management and recycling programs because of the complex task involving many factors. Solid waste collection system depends upon various factors such as manpower, number and size of vehicles, transfer station size, dustbin size and weight, on-road traffic, and many others. These factors affect the collection cost, energy and overall municipal tax for the city. Generally, different types of waste are scattered throughout the city in a heterogeneous way that poses changes for efficient collection of solid waste. Efficient waste collection and transportation strategy must be effectively undertaken which will include optimization of routes, volume of waste, and manpower. Being these optimized, the overall cost can be reduced as the fuel and energy requirements would be less and also the municipal waste taxes levied will be less. To carry out the optimization study of collection system various data needs to be collected from the Ahmedabad municipal corporation such as amount of waste generated per day, number of workers, collection schedule, road maps, number of transfer station, location of transfer station, number of equipment (tractors, machineries), number of zones, route of collection etc. The ArcGis Network Analyst is introduced for the best routing identification applied in municipal waste collection. The simulation consists of scenarios of visiting loading spots in the municipality of Ahmedabad, considering dynamic factors like network traffic changes, closed roads due to natural or technical causes. Different routes were selected in a particular area of Ahmedabad city, and present routes were optimized to reduce the length of the routes, by using ArcGis Network Analyst. The result indicates up to 35% length minimization in the routes.

Keywords: collection routes, efficiency, municipal solid waste, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
835 Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Forest Ecosystem in Mediterranean Region

Authors: Orkan Ozcan, Nebiye Musaoglu, Murat Turkes

Abstract:

Climate change is largely recognized as one of the real, pressing and significant global problems. The concept of ‘climate change vulnerability’ helps us to better comprehend the cause/effect relationships behind climate change and its impact on human societies, socioeconomic sectors, physiographical and ecological systems. In this study, multifactorial spatial modeling was applied to evaluate the vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest ecosystem to climate change. As a result, the geographical distribution of the final Environmental Vulnerability Areas (EVAs) of the forest ecosystem is based on the estimated final Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) values. This revealed that at current levels of environmental degradation, physical, geographical, policy enforcement and socioeconomic conditions, the area with a ‘very low’ vulnerability degree covered mainly the town, its surrounding settlements and the agricultural lands found mainly over the low and flat travertine plateau and the plains at the east and southeast of the district. The spatial magnitude of the EVAs over the forest ecosystem under the current environmental degradation was also determined. This revealed that the EVAs classed as ‘very low’ account for 21% of the total area of the forest ecosystem, those classed as ‘low’ account for 36%, those classed as ‘medium’ account for 20%, and those classed as ‘high’ account for 24%. Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected future climate indicators, both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier, hotter, more continental and more water-deficient climate. This analysis holds true for all future scenarios, with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030. However, the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become a semiarid climate in the period between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. All the observed and estimated results and assessments summarized in the study show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site, which is characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and the maquis vegetation, will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation, climate change and variability.

Keywords: forest ecosystem, Mediterranean climate, RCP scenarios, vulnerability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 338
834 Modeling Acceptability of a Personalized and Contextualized Radio Embedded in Vehicles

Authors: Ludivine Gueho, Sylvain Fleury, Eric Jamet

Abstract:

Driver distraction is known to be a major contributing factor of car accidents. Since many years, constructors have been designing embedded technologies to face this problem and reduce distraction. Being able to predict user acceptance would further be helpful in the development process to build appropriate systems. The present research aims at modelling the acceptability of a specific system, an innovative personalized and contextualized embedded radio, through an online survey of 202 people in France that assessed the psychological variables determining intentions to use the system. The questionnaire instantiated the dimensions of the extended version of the UTAUT acceptability model. Because of the specific features of the system assessed, we added 4 dimensions: perceived security, anxiety, trust and privacy concerns. Results showed that hedonic motivation, i.e., the fun or pleasure derived from using a technology, and performance expectancy, i.e., the degree to which individuals believe that the characteristics of the system meet their needs, are the most important dimensions in determining behavioral intentions about the innovative radio. To a lesser extent, social influence, i.e., the degree to which individuals think they can use the system while respecting their social group’s norms and while giving a positive image of themselves, had an effect on behavioral intentions. Moreover, trust, that is, the positive belief about the perceived reliability of, dependability of, and confidence in a person, object or process, had a significant effect, mediated by performance expectancy. In an applicative way, the present research reveals that, to be accepted, in-car embedded new technology has to address individual needs, for instance by facilitating the driving activity or by providing useful information. If it shows hedonic qualities by being entertaining, pretty or comfortable, this may improve the intentions to use it. Therefore, it is clearly important to include reflection about user experience in the design process. Finally, the users have to be reassured on the system’s reliability. For example, improving the transparency of the system by providing information about the system functioning, could improve trust. These results bring some highlights on determinant of acceptance of an in-vehicle technology and are useful for constructors to design acceptable systems.

Keywords: acceptability, innovative embedded radio, structural equation, user-centric evaluation, UTAUT

Procedia PDF Downloads 256
833 Reasons to Redesign: Teacher Education for a Brighter Tomorrow

Authors: Deborah L. Smith

Abstract:

To review our program and determine the best redesign options, department members gathered feedback and input through focus groups, analysis of data, and a review of the current research to ensure that the changes proposed were not based solely on the state’s new professional standards. In designing course assignments and assessments, we listened to a variety of constituents, including students, other institutions of higher learning, MDE webinars, host teachers, literacy clinic personnel, and other disciplinary experts. As a result, we are designing a program that is more inclusive of a variety of field experiences for growth. We have determined ways to improve our program by connecting academic disciplinary knowledge, educational psychology, and community building both inside and outside the classroom for professional learning communities. The state’s release of new professional standards led my department members to question what is working and what needs improvement in our program. One aspect of our program that continues to be supported by research and data analysis is the function of supervised field experiences with meaningful feedback. We seek to expand in this area. Other data indicate that we have strengths in modeling a variety of approaches such as cooperative learning, discussions, literacy strategies, and workshops. In the new program, field assignments will be connected to multiple courses, and efforts to scaffold student learning to guide them toward best evidence-based practices will be continuous. Despite running a program that meets multiple sets of standards, there are areas of need that we directly address in our redesign proposal. Technology is ever-changing, so it’s inevitable that improving digital skills is a focus. In addition, scaffolding procedures for English Language Learners (ELL) or other students who struggle is imperative. Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) has been an integral part of our curriculum, but the research indicates that more self-reflection and a deeper understanding of culturally relevant practices would help the program improve. Connections with professional learning communities will be expanded, as will leadership components, so that teacher candidates understand their role in changing the face of education. A pilot program will run in academic year 22/23, and additional data will be collected each semester through evaluations and continued program review.

Keywords: DEI, field experiences, program redesign, teacher preparation

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
832 Biorefinery Annexed to South African Sugar Mill: Energy Sufficiency Analysis

Authors: S. Farzad, M. Ali Mandegari, J. F. Görgens

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The South African Sugar Industry, which has a significant impact on the national economy, is currently facing problems due to increasing energy price and low global sugar price. The available bagasse is already combusted in low-efficiency boilers of the sugar mills while bagasse is generally recognized as a promising feedstock for second generation bioethanol production. Establishment of biorefinery annexed to the existing sugar mills, as an alternative for the revitalization of sugar industry producing biofuel and electricity has been proposed and considered in this study. Since the scale is an important issue in the feasibility of the technology, this study has taken into account a typical sugar mill with 300 ton/hr sugar cane capacity. The biorefinery simulation is carried out using Aspen PlusTM V8.6, in which the sugar mill’s power and steam demand has been considered. Hence, sugar mills in South Africa can be categorized as highly efficient, efficient, and not efficient with steam consumption of 33, 40, and 60 tons of steam per ton of cane and electric power demand of 10 MW; three different scenarios are studied. The sugar cane bagasse and tops/trash are supplied to the biorefinery process and the wastes/residues (mostly lignin) from the process are burnt in the CHP plant in order to produce steam and electricity for the biorefinery and sugar mill as well. Considering the efficient sugar mill, the CHP plant has generated 5 MW surplus electric powers, but the obtained energy is not enough for self-sufficiency of the plant (Biorefinery and Sugar mill) due to lack of 34 MW heat. One of the advantages of second generation biorefinery is its low impact on the environment and carbon footprint, thus the plant should be self-sufficient in energy without using fossil fuels. For this reason, a portion of fresh bagasse should be sent to the CHP plant to meet the energy requirements. An optimization procedure was carried out to find out the appropriate portion to be burnt in the combustor. As a result, 20% of the bagasse is re-routed to the combustor which leads to 5 tons of LP Steam and 8.6 MW electric power surpluses.

Keywords: biorefinery, sugarcane bagasse, sugar mill, energy analysis, bioethanol

Procedia PDF Downloads 461
831 The Design of Multiple Detection Parallel Combined Spread Spectrum Communication System

Authors: Lixin Tian, Wei Xue

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Many jobs in society go underground, such as mine mining, tunnel construction and subways, which are vital to the development of society. Once accidents occur in these places, the interruption of traditional wired communication is not conducive to the development of rescue work. In order to realize the positioning, early warning and command functions of underground personnel and improve rescue efficiency, it is necessary to develop and design an emergency ground communication system. It is easy to be subjected to narrowband interference when performing conventional underground communication. Spreading communication can be used for this problem. However, general spread spectrum methods such as direct spread communication are inefficient, so it is proposed to use parallel combined spread spectrum (PCSS) communication to improve efficiency. The PCSS communication not only has the anti-interference ability and the good concealment of the traditional spread spectrum system, but also has a relatively high frequency band utilization rate and a strong information transmission capability. So, this technology has been widely used in practice. This paper presents a PCSS communication model-multiple detection parallel combined spread spectrum (MDPCSS) communication system. In this paper, the principle of MDPCSS communication system is described, that is, the sequence at the transmitting end is processed in blocks and cyclically shifted to facilitate multiple detection at the receiving end. The block diagrams of the transmitter and receiver of the MDPCSS communication system are introduced. At the same time, the calculation formula of the system bit error rate (BER) is introduced, and the simulation and analysis of the BER of the system are completed. By comparing with the common parallel PCSS communication, we can draw a conclusion that it is indeed possible to reduce the BER and improve the system performance. Furthermore, the influence of different pseudo-code lengths selected on the system BER is simulated and analyzed, and the conclusion is that the larger the pseudo-code length is, the smaller the system error rate is.

Keywords: cyclic shift, multiple detection, parallel combined spread spectrum, PN code

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
830 Understanding Hydrodynamic in Lake Victoria Basin in a Catchment Scale: A Literature Review

Authors: Seema Paul, John Mango Magero, Prosun Bhattacharya, Zahra Kalantari, Steve W. Lyon

Abstract:

The purpose of this review paper is to develop an understanding of lake hydrodynamics and the potential climate impact on the Lake Victoria (LV) catchment scale. This paper briefly discusses the main problems of lake hydrodynamics and its’ solutions that are related to quality assessment and climate effect. An empirical methodology in modeling and mapping have considered for understanding lake hydrodynamic and visualizing the long-term observational daily, monthly, and yearly mean dataset results by using geographical information system (GIS) and Comsol techniques. Data were obtained for the whole lake and five different meteorological stations, and several geoprocessing tools with spatial analysis are considered to produce results. The linear regression analyses were developed to build climate scenarios and a linear trend on lake rainfall data for a long period. A potential evapotranspiration rate has been described by the MODIS and the Thornthwaite method. The rainfall effect on lake water level observed by Partial Differential Equations (PDE), and water quality has manifested by a few nutrients parameters. The study revealed monthly and yearly rainfall varies with monthly and yearly maximum and minimum temperatures, and the rainfall is high during cool years and the temperature is high associated with below and average rainfall patterns. Rising temperatures are likely to accelerate evapotranspiration rates and more evapotranspiration is likely to lead to more rainfall, drought is more correlated with temperature and cloud is more correlated with rainfall. There is a trend in lake rainfall and long-time rainfall on the lake water surface has affected the lake level. The onshore and offshore have been concentrated by initial literature nutrients data. The study recommended that further studies should consider fully lake bathymetry development with flow analysis and its’ water balance, hydro-meteorological processes, solute transport, wind hydrodynamics, pollution and eutrophication these are crucial for lake water quality, climate impact assessment, and water sustainability.

Keywords: climograph, climate scenarios, evapotranspiration, linear trend flow, rainfall event on LV, concentration

Procedia PDF Downloads 76
829 Experimental and Numerical Analysis of Wood Pellet Breakage during Pneumatic Transport

Authors: Julian Jaegers, Siegmar Wirtz, Viktor Scherer

Abstract:

Wood pellets belong to the most established trade formats of wood-based fuels. Especially, because of the transportability and the storage properties, but also due to low moisture content, high energy density, and the homogeneous particle size and shape, wood pellets are well suited for power generation in power plants and for the use in automated domestic firing systems. Before they are thermally converted, wood pellets pass various transport and storage procedures. There they undergo different mechanical impacts, which leads to pellet breakage and abrasion and to an increase in fines. The fines lead to operational problems during storage, charging, and discharging of pellets, they can increase the risk of dust explosions and can lead to pollutant emissions during combustion. In the current work, the dependence of the formation of fines caused by breakage during pneumatic transport is analyzed experimentally and numerically. The focus lies on the influence of conveying velocity, pellet loading, pipe diameter, and the shape of pipe components like bends or couplings. A test rig has been built, which allows the experimental evaluation of the pneumatic transport varying the above-mentioned parameters. Two high-speed cameras are installed for the quantitative optical access to the particle-particle and particle-wall contacts. The particle size distribution of the bulk before and after a transport process is measured as well as the amount of fines produced. The experiments will be compared with results of corresponding DEM/CFD simulations to provide information on contact frequencies and forces. The contribution proposed will present experimental results and report on the status of the DEM/CFD simulations. The final goal of the project is to provide a better insight into pellet breakage during pneumatic transport and to develop guidelines ensuring a more gentle transport.

Keywords: DEM/CFD-simulation of pneumatic conveying, mechanical impact on wood pellets during transportation, pellet breakage, pneumatic transport of wood pellets

Procedia PDF Downloads 132
828 Numerical Method for Productivity Prediction of Water-Producing Gas Well with Complex 3D Fractures: Case Study of Xujiahe Gas Well in Sichuan Basin

Authors: Hong Li, Haiyang Yu, Shiqing Cheng, Nai Cao, Zhiliang Shi

Abstract:

Unconventional resources have gradually become the main direction for oil and gas exploration and development. However, the productivity of gas wells, the level of water production, and the seepage law in tight fractured gas reservoirs are very different. These are the reasons why production prediction is so difficult. Firstly, a three-dimensional multi-scale fracture and multiphase mathematical model based on an embedded discrete fracture model (EDFM) is established. And the material balance method is used to calculate the water body multiple according to the production performance characteristics of water-producing gas well. This will help construct a 'virtual water body'. Based on these, this paper presents a numerical simulation process that can adapt to different production modes of gas wells. The research results show that fractures have a double-sided effect. The positive side is that it can increase the initial production capacity, but the negative side is that it can connect to the water body, which will lead to the gas production drop and the water production rise both rapidly, showing a 'scissor-like' characteristic. It is worth noting that fractures with different angles have different abilities to connect with the water body. The higher the angle of gas well development, the earlier the water maybe break through. When the reservoir is a single layer, there may be a stable production period without water before the fractures connect with the water body. Once connected, a 'scissors shape' will appear. If the reservoir has multiple layers, the gas and water will produce at the same time. The above gas-water relationship can be matched with the gas well production date of the Xujiahe gas reservoir in the Sichuan Basin. This method is used to predict the productivity of a well with hydraulic fractures in this gas reservoir, and the prediction results are in agreement with on-site production data by more than 90%. It shows that this research idea has great potential in the productivity prediction of water-producing gas wells. Early prediction results are of great significance to guide the design of development plans.

Keywords: EDFM, multiphase, multilayer, water body

Procedia PDF Downloads 181
827 VeriFy: A Solution to Implement Autonomy Safely and According to the Rules

Authors: Michael Naderhirn, Marco Pavone

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Problem statement, motivation, and aim of work: So far, the development of control algorithms was done by control engineers in a way that the controller would fit a specification by testing. When it comes to the certification of an autonomous car in highly complex scenarios, the challenge is much higher since such a controller must mathematically guarantee to implement the rules of the road while on the other side guarantee aspects like safety and real time executability. What if it becomes reality to solve this demanding problem by combining Formal Verification and System Theory? The aim of this work is to present a workflow to solve the above mentioned problem. Summary of the presented results / main outcomes: We show the usage of an English like language to transform the rules of the road into system specification for an autonomous car. The language based specifications are used to define system functions and interfaces. Based on that a formal model is developed which formally correctly models the specifications. On the other side, a mathematical model describing the systems dynamics is used to calculate the systems reachability set which is further used to determine the system input boundaries. Then a motion planning algorithm is applied inside the system boundaries to find an optimized trajectory in combination with the formal specification model while satisfying the specifications. The result is a control strategy which can be applied in real time independent of the scenario with a mathematical guarantee to satisfy a predefined specification. We demonstrate the applicability of the method in simulation driving scenarios and a potential certification. Originality, significance, and benefit: To the authors’ best knowledge, it is the first time that it is possible to show an automated workflow which combines a specification in an English like language and a mathematical model in a mathematical formal verified way to synthesizes a controller for potential real time applications like autonomous driving.

Keywords: formal system verification, reachability, real time controller, hybrid system

Procedia PDF Downloads 225
826 Influence of Shading on a BIPV System’s Performance in an Urban Context: Case Study of BIPV Systems of the Science Center of Complexity Building of the National and Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City

Authors: Viridiana Edith Ardura Perea, José Luis Bermúdez Alcocer

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to establish the influence of shading on a Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) system´s performance in an urban context. The PV systems of the Science Center of Complexity (Centro de Ciencias de la Complejidad) Building based in the Main Campus of the National and Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) in Mexico City was taken as case study.  The PV systems are placed on the rooftop and on the south façade of the building.  The south-façade PV system, operating as sunshades, consists of two strings:  one at the ground floor and the other one at the first floor.  According to the building’s facility manager, the south-façade PV system generates 42% less electricity per kilowatt peak (kWp) installed than the one on the roof.  The methods applied in this study were Solar Radiation Analysis (SRA) simulations performed with the Insight 360 Plug-in from Revit 2018® and an on-site measurement using specialized tools.  The results of the SRA simulations showed that the shading casted by the PV system placed on the first floor on top of the PV system of the ground floor decreases its solar incident radiation over 50%.  The simulation outcome was compared and validated to the measured data obtained from the on-site measurement.  In conclusion, the loss factor achieved from the shading of the PVs is due to the surroundings and the PV system´s own design.  The south-façade BIPV system’s deficient design generates critical losses on its performance and decreases its profitability.

Keywords: building integrated photovoltaics design, energy analysis software, shading losses, solar radiation analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 158