Search results for: probability weighted moment estimation

Authors: Reza Heidari, Maryam Amiri

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In a technological world, many countries have a tendency to fortifying their companies and technological infrastructures. Also, one of the most important requirements for developing technology is innovation, and then, all companies are struggling to consider innovation as a basic principle. Since, the expansion of a product need to combine different technologies, therefore, different innovative projects would be run in the firms as a base of technology development. In such an environment, enterprise resource planning (ERP) has special significance in order to develop and strengthen of innovations. In this article, an economic-probabilistic analysis was provided to perform an implementation project of ERP in the technological innovation (TI) based firms. The used model in this article assesses simultaneously both risk and economic analysis in view of the probability of each event that is jointly between economical approach and risk investigation approach. To provide an economic-probabilistic analysis of risk of the project, activities and milestones in the cash flow were extracted. Also, probability of occurrence of each of them was assessed. Since, Resources planning in an innovative firm is the object of this project. Therefore, we extracted various risks that are in relation with innovative project and then they were evaluated in the form of cash flow. This model, by considering risks affecting the project and the probability of each of them and assign them to the project's cash flow categories, presents an adjusted cash flow based on Net Present Value (NPV) and with probabilistic simulation approach. Indeed, this model presented economic analysis of the project based on risks-adjusted. Then, it measures NPV of the project, by concerning that these risks which have the most effect on technological innovation projects, and in the following measures probability associated with the NPV for each category. As a result of application of presented model in the information and communication technology (ICT) industry, provided an appropriate analysis of feasibility of the project from the point of view of cash flow based on risk impact on the project. Obtained results can be given to decision makers until they can practically have a systematically analysis of the possibility of the project with an economic approach and as moderated.

Keywords: cash flow categorization, economic evaluation, probabilistic, risk assessment, technological innovation

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Authors: Nicanor Garcia Alvarez, Belarmino Adenso-Diaz, Laura Calzada Infante

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In recent years, researchers have shown an interest in modelling maritime traffic as a complex network. In this paper, we propose a bipartite weighted network to model maritime traffic and detect port maritime communities. The bipartite weighted network considers two different types of nodes. The first one represents Spanish ports, while the second one represents the countries with which there is major import/export activity. The flow among both types of nodes is modeled by weighting the volume of product transported. To illustrate the model, the data is segmented by each type of traffic. This will allow fine tuning and the creation of communities for each type of traffic and therefore finding similar ports for a specific type of traffic, which will provide decision-makers with tools to search for alliances or identify their competitors. The traffic with the greatest impact on the Spanish gross domestic product is selected, and the evolution of the communities formed by the most important ports and their differences between 2019 and 2009 will be analyzed. Finally, the set of communities formed by the ports of the Spanish port system will be inspected to determine global similarities between them, analyzing the sum of the membership of the different ports in communities formed for each type of traffic in particular.

Keywords: bipartite networks, competition, infomap, maritime traffic, port communities

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Authors: M. I. Youssef, A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

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This paper evaluates the bit error rate (BER) performance of MIMO-OFDM communication system. MIMO system uses multiple transmitting and receiving antennas with different coding techniques to either enhance the transmission diversity or spatial multiplexing gain. Utilizing alamouti algorithm were the same information transmitted over multiple antennas at different time intervals and then collected again at the receivers to minimize the probability of error, combat fading and thus improve the received signal to noise ratio. While utilizing V-BLAST algorithm, the transmitted signals are divided into different transmitting channels and transferred over the channel to be received by different receiving antennas to increase the transmitted data rate and achieve higher throughput. The paper provides a study of different diversity gain coding schemes and spatial multiplexing coding for MIMO systems. A comparison of various channels' estimation and equalization techniques are given. The simulation is implemented using MATLAB, and the results had shown the performance of transmission models under different channel environments.

Keywords: MIMO communication, BER, space codes, channels, alamouti, V-BLAST

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Authors: Akash Verma, Sujit Kumar Samanta

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This study examines a discrete-time Geo/G/1 queueing-inventory system attached with (s, Q) inventory policy. Assume that the customers follow the Bernoulli process on arrival. Each customer demands a single item with arbitrarily distributed service time. The inventory is replenished by an outside supplier, and the lead time for the replenishment is determined by a geometric distribution. There is a single server and infinite waiting space in this facility. Demands must wait in the specified waiting area during a stock-out period. The customers are served on a first-come-first-served basis. With the help of the embedded Markov chain technique, we determine the joint probability distributions of the number of customers in the system and the number of items in stock at the post-departure epoch using the Matrix Analytic approach. We relate the system length distribution at post-departure and outside observer's epochs to determine the joint probability distribution at the outside observer's epoch. We use probability distributions at random epochs to determine the waiting time distribution. We obtain the performance measures to construct the cost function. The optimum values of the order quantity and reordering point are found numerically for the variety of model parameters.

Keywords: discrete-time queueing inventory model, matrix analytic method, waiting-time analysis, cost optimization

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Authors: David A. Padilla, Rodolfo Villamizar

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In recent years, closed loop control strategies have been developed in order to establish a healthy glucose profile in type 1 diabetic mellitus (T1DM) patients. However, the controller itself is unable to define a suitable reference trajectory for glucose. In this paper, a control strategy Is proposed where the shape of the reference trajectory is generated bases in the amount of carbohydrates present during the digestive process, due to the effect of carbohydrate intake. Since there no exists a sensor to measure the amount of carbohydrates consumed, an estimator is proposed. Thus this paper presents the entire process of designing a carbohydrate estimator, which allows estimate disturbance for a predictive controller (MPC) in a T1MD patient, the estimation will be used to establish a profile of reference and improve the response of the controller by providing the estimated information of ingested carbohydrates. The dynamics of the diabetic model used are due to the equations described by the UVA/Padova model of the T1DMS simulator, the system was developed and simulated in Simulink, taking into account the noise and limitations of the glucose control system actuators.

Keywords: estimation, glucose control, predictive controller, MPC, UVA/Padova

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Authors: Ana Luiza Da Gama E Souza

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This article aims to discuss the problem of food insecurity in Brazil in what it refers to contamination of food by chemical substances such as herbicides, pesticides, and other contaminants. The issue will be faced by analyzing, on the one hand, the standards that guide the food system in the world and, on the other hand, human rights indicators whose purpose is to provide an effective monitoring of the State's obligations to guarantee food security, analyzing the implications of the former for the success of the latter. The methodology adopted in this article was bibliographic-documentary and consists of three moments of analysis. The first moment consists in the analysis of the reports of the Commission on Human Rights of the Organization of American States to identify the set of progress indicators developed by the Commission. This analysis will involve the new methodology used to evaluate the efficiency in monitoring food security in Brazil the case of using pesticides in the production of food at levels of toxicity not admitted by the inspection bodies. The second moment consists in evaluating the mechanism for monitoring food security in Brazil, which was initially established by the National Food Security Plan (PLANSAN) for 2012-2015 and improved by the II National Food Security Plan for 2016-2019. Those mechanisms were prepared by the Chamber (CAISAN), and have the function to compare the monitoring proposals with the results presented by CAISAN on the Indicators and Results Report of the National Plan for Food and Nutrition Security 2012-2015. The third moment was intended to understand, analyze and evaluate the standardization process of the agri-food system, especially regarding the level of toxicity standards, that is related to food safety monitoring as a guarantee of pesticide-free food. The results show the dependence between private standards of toxicity and the indicators of food safety that leads to inefficiency on monitoring that mechanism in Brazil.

Keywords: standards, indicators, human rights, food security

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Authors: Renu Gupta, Ashim K. Pramanik

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We report the evolution of structure and magnetic properties in perovskite ruthenates Sr1-xPrxRuO3 (x = 0.0 and 0.1). Our main expectations, to induce the structural modification and change the Ru charge state by Pr doping at Sr site. By the Pr doping on Sr site retains orthorhombic structure while we find a minor change in structural parameters. The SrRuO3 have itinerant type of ferromagnetism with ordering temperature ~160 K. By Pr doping, the magnetic moment decrease and ZFC show three distinct peaks (three transition temperature; TM1, TM2 and TM3). Further analysis of magnetization of both samples, at high temperature follow modified CWL and Pr doping gives Curie temperature ~ 129 K which is close to TM2. Above TM2 to TM3, the inverse susceptibility shows upward deviation from CW behavior, indicating the existence AFM like clustered in this regime. The low-temperature isothermal magnetization M (H) shows moment decreases by Pr doping. The Arrott plot gives spontaneous magnetization (Ms) which also decreases by Pr doping. The evolution of Rhodes-Wohlfarth ratio increases which suggests the FM in this system evolves toward the itinerant type by Pr doping.

Keywords: itinerant ferromagnet, Perovskite structure, Ruthenates, Rhodes-Wohlfarth ratio

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Authors: Amitha Puranik, V. S. Binu, Seena Biju

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Missing data is a common problem in spatial analysis especially at the aggregate level. Missing can either occur in covariate or in response variable or in both in a given location. Many missing data techniques are available to estimate the missing data values but not all of these methods can be applied on spatial data since the data are autocorrelated. Hence there is a need to develop a method that estimates the missing values in both response variable and covariates in spatial data by taking account of the spatial autocorrelation. The present study aims to develop a model to estimate the missing data points at the aggregate level in spatial data by accounting for (a) Spatial autocorrelation of the response variable (b) Spatial autocorrelation of covariates and (c) Correlation between covariates and the response variable. Estimating the missing values of spatial data requires a model that explicitly account for the spatial autocorrelation. The proposed model not only accounts for spatial autocorrelation but also utilizes the correlation that exists between covariates, within covariates and between a response variable and covariates. The precise estimation of the missing data points in spatial data will result in an increased precision of the estimated effects of independent variables on the response variable in spatial regression analysis.

Keywords: spatial regression, missing data estimation, spatial autocorrelation, simulation analysis

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Authors: Somayeh Sadat Hashemi Kamangar, Fatemeh Bakouie, Shahriar Gharibzadeh

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In this study, we target to exploit Maximum Spanning Trees (MST) of children's semantic networks to investigate their language development. To do so, we examine the graph-theoretic properties of word-embedding networks. The networks are made of words children learn prior to the age of 30 months as the nodes and the links which are built from the cosine vector similarity of words normatively acquired by children prior to two and a half years of age. These networks are weighted graphs and the strength of each link is determined by the numerical similarities of the two words (nodes) on the sides of the link. To avoid changing the weighted networks to the binaries by setting a threshold, constructing MSTs might present a solution. MST is a unique sub-graph that connects all the nodes in such a way that the sum of all the link weights is maximized without forming cycles. MSTs as the backbone of the semantic networks are suitable to examine developmental changes in semantic network topology in children. From these trees, several parameters were calculated to characterize the developmental change in network organization. We showed that MSTs provides an elegant method sensitive to capture subtle developmental changes in semantic network organization.

Keywords: maximum spanning trees, word-embedding, semantic networks, language development

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Authors: Herbert W. Corley

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A scalar equilibrium (SE) is an alternative type of equilibrium in pure strategies for an n-person normal-form game G. It is defined using optimization techniques to obtain a pure strategy for each player of G by maximizing an appropriate utility function over the acceptable joint actions. The players’ actions are determined by the choice of the utility function. Such a utility function could be agreed upon by the players or chosen by an arbitrator. An SE is an equilibrium since no players of G can increase the value of this utility function by changing their strategies. SEs are formally defined, and examples are given. In a greedy SE, the goal is to assign actions to the players giving them the largest individual payoffs jointly possible. In a weighted SE, each player is assigned weights modeling the degree to which he helps every player, including himself, achieve as large a payoff as jointly possible. In a compromise SE, each player wants a fair payoff for a reasonable interpretation of fairness. In a parity SE, the players want their payoffs to be as nearly equal as jointly possible. Finally, a satisficing SE achieves a personal target payoff value for each player. The vector payoffs associated with each of these SEs are shown to be Pareto optimal among all such acceptable vectors, as well as computationally tractable.

Keywords: compromise equilibrium, greedy equilibrium, normal-form game, parity equilibrium, pure strategies, satisficing equilibrium, scalar equilibria, utility function, weighted equilibrium

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Authors: Yuta Moriyama, Tsuyoshi Yamazaki, Etsuo Morishita

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Several aerodynamic devices currently attract engineers and research students. The plasma actuator is one of them, and it is very effective to control the flow. The actuator recovers a separated flow to an attached one. The actuator is also inversely applied to a spoiler. The model aircraft might be controlled by this actuator. We develop a model aircraft with the plasma actuator. Another interesting device is the Wells turbine which rotates in one direction. The present authors propose a bicycle with the Wells turbine in the wheels. Power reduction is measured when the turbine is driven by an electric motor at the exit of a wind tunnel. Several Watts power reduction might be possible. This means that the torque of the bike can be augmented by the turbine in the cross wind. These devices are tested in the wind tunnel with a three-component balance and the aerodynamic forces and moment are obtained. In this paper, we introduce these devices and their aerodynamic characteristics. The control force and moment of the plasma actuator are clarified and the power reduction of the bicycle is quantified.

Keywords: aerodynamics, model aircraft, plasma actuator, Wells turbine

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Authors: Wedad Albalawi

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The mathematical inequalities have been the core of mathematical study and used in almost all branches of mathematics as well in various areas of science and engineering. The inequalities by Hardy, Littlewood and Polya were the first significant composition of several science. This work presents fundamental ideas, results and techniques, and it has had much influence on research in various branches of analysis. Since 1934, various inequalities have been produced and studied in the literature. Furthermore, some inequalities have been formulated by some operators; in 1989, weighted Hardy inequalities have been obtained for integration operators. Then, they obtained weighted estimates for Steklov operators that were used in the solution of the Cauchy problem for the wave equation. They were improved upon in 2011 to include the boundedness of integral operators from the weighted Sobolev space to the weighted Lebesgue space. Some inequalities have been demonstrated and improved using the Hardy–Steklov operator. Recently, a lot of integral inequalities have been improved by differential operators. Hardy inequality has been one of the tools that is used to consider integrity solutions of differential equations. Then, dynamic inequalities of Hardy and Coposon have been extended and improved by various integral operators. These inequalities would be interesting to apply in different fields of mathematics (functional spaces, partial differential equations, mathematical modeling). Some inequalities have been appeared involving Copson and Hardy inequalities on time scales to obtain new special version of them. A time scale is an arbitrary nonempty closed subset of the real numbers. Then, the dynamic inequalities on time scales have received a lot of attention in the literature and has become a major field in pure and applied mathematics. There are many applications of dynamic equations on time scales to quantum mechanics, electrical engineering, neural networks, heat transfer, combinatorics, and population dynamics. This study focuses on Hardy and Coposon inequalities, using Steklov operator on time scale in double integrals to obtain special cases of time-scale inequalities of Hardy and Copson on high dimensions. The advantage of this study is that it uses the one-dimensional classical Hardy inequality to obtain higher dimensional on time scale versions that will be applied in the solution of the Cauchy problem for the wave equation. In addition, the obtained inequalities have various applications involving discontinuous domains such as bug populations, phytoremediation of metals, wound healing, maximization problems. The proof can be done by introducing restriction on the operator in several cases. The concepts in time scale version such as time scales calculus will be used that allows to unify and extend many problems from the theories of differential and of difference equations. In addition, using chain rule, and some properties of multiple integrals on time scales, some theorems of Fubini and the inequality of H¨older.

Keywords: time scales, inequality of hardy, inequality of coposon, steklov operator

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Authors: Mircea Pastrav, Horia Constantinescu

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The construction industry is currently trying to develop sustainable reinforced concrete structures. In trying to aid in the effort, the research presented in this paper aims to prove the efficiency of modified special hybrid moment frames composed of discretely jointed precast and post-tensioned concrete members. This aim is due to the fact that current design standards do not cover the spatial design of moment frame structures assembled by post-tensioning with special hybrid joints. This lack of standardization is coupled with the fact that previous experimental programs, available in scientific literature, deal mainly with plane structures and offer little information regarding spatial behavior. A spatial model of a modified hybrid moment frame is experimentally analyzed. The experimental results of a natural scale model test of a corner column-beams sub-structure, cut from an actual multilevel building tested to seismic type loading are presented in order to highlight the behavior of this type of structure. The test is performed under alternative cycles of imposed lateral displacements, up to a storey drift ratio of 0.035. Seismic response of the spatial model is discussed considering the acceptance criteria for reinforced concrete frame structures designed based on experimental tests, as well as some of its major sustainability features. The results obtained show an overall excellent behavior of the system. The joint detailing allows for quick and cheap repairs after an accidental event and a self-balancing behavior of the system that ensures it can be used almost immediately after an accidental event it.

Keywords: modified hybrid joint, seismic type loading response, self-balancing structure, acceptance criteria

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Authors: Ghada Badr, Arwa Alturki

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The biological function of an RNA molecule depends on its structure. The objective of the alignment is finding the homology between two or more RNA secondary structures. Knowing the common functionalities between two RNA structures allows a better understanding and a discovery of other relationships between them. Besides, identifying non-coding RNAs -that is not translated into a protein- is a popular application in which RNA structural alignment is the first step A few methods for RNA structure-to-structure alignment have been developed. Most of these methods are partial structure-to-structure, sequence-to-structure, or structure-to-sequence alignment. Less attention is given in the literature to the use of efficient RNA structure representation and the structure-to-structure alignment methods are lacking. In this paper, we introduce an O(N2) Component-based Pairwise RNA Structure Alignment (CompPSA) algorithm, where structures are given as a component-based representation and where N is the maximum number of components in the two structures. The proposed algorithm compares the two RNA secondary structures based on their weighted component features rather than on their base-pair details. Extensive experiments are conducted illustrating the efficiency of the CompPSA algorithm when compared to other approaches and on different real and simulated datasets. The CompPSA algorithm shows an accurate similarity measure between components. The algorithm gives the flexibility for the user to align the two RNA structures based on their weighted features (position, full length, and/or stem length). Moreover, the algorithm proves scalability and efficiency in time and memory performance.

Keywords: alignment, RNA secondary structure, pairwise, component-based, data mining

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Authors: A. B. Bolkhir, A. Elshafie, T. K. Yousif

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This paper highlights the methods of error estimation in finite element analysis (FEA) results. It indicates that the modeling error could be eliminated by performing finite element analysis with successively finer meshes or by extrapolating response predictions from an orderly sequence of relatively low degree of freedom analysis results. In addition, the paper eliminates the round-off error by running the code at a higher precision. The paper provides application in finite element analysis results. It draws a conclusion based on results of application of methods of error estimation.

Keywords: finite element analysis (FEA), discretization error, round-off error, mesh refinement, richardson extrapolation, monotonic convergence

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Authors: Jason Salim, Zhouyang Lu

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Private sector involvement in Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects may raise public suspicion, as PPP is often mistaken as merely a partnership between private and government agencies without consideration for greater “public” (community). This public marginalization is crucial to be dealt with because undermining opinion of majority may cause problems such as protests and/ or low demand. Game theory approach applied in this paper shows that probability of public acceptance towards a project is affected by overall public’s perception on Private sectors’ possible profit accumulation from the project. On the contrary, goodwill of the government and private coalition alone is not enough to minimize the probability of public opposition towards a PPP project. Additionally, the threat of loss or damage raised from public opposition does not affect the profit-maximization behavior of Private sectors.

Keywords: community satisfaction, game theory, non-cooperative, PPP, public policy

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Authors: A. Chouaih, N. Benhalima, N. Boukabcha, R. Rahmani, F. Hamzaoui

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Zwitterionic compounds have received the interest of chemists and physicists due to their applications as nonlinear optical materials. Recently, zwitterionic compounds exhibiting high nonlinear optical activity have been investigated. In this context, the molecular electron charge density distribution of the title compound is described accurately using the multipolar model of Hansen and Coppens. The net atomic charge and the molecular dipole moment have been determined in order to understand the nature of inter- and intramolecular charge transfer. The study reveals the nature of intermolecular interactions including charge transfer and hydrogen bonds in the title compound. In this crystal, the molecules form dimers via intermolecular hydrogen bonds. The dimers are further linked by C–H...O hydrogen bonds into chains along the c crystallographic axis. This study has also allowed us to determine various nonlinear optical properties such as molecular electrostatic potential, polarizability, and hyperpolarizability of the title compound.

Keywords: organic compounds, polarizability, hyperpolarizability, dipole moment

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Authors: Mathinee Khongsatid, Phusit Phukamchanoad, Sakapas Saengchai

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This research aims to study the democratic political socialization of the 5th and 6th Graders under the Authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok by using stratified sampling for probability sampling and using purposive sampling for non-probability sampling to collect data toward the distribution of questionnaires to 300 respondents. This covers all of the schools under the authority of Dusit District Office. The researcher analyzed the data by using descriptive statistics which include arithmetic mean and standard deviation. The result shows that 5th and 6th graders under the authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok, have displayed some characteristics following democratic political socialization both inside and outside classroom as well as outside school. However, the democratic political socialization in classroom through grouping and class participation is much more emphasized.

Keywords: democratic, political socialization, students grades 5-6, descriptive statistics

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Authors: Jun Su Park, Byung Kwan Oh, Jin Woo Hwang, Yousok Kim, Hyo Seon Park

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For the structural safety, the maximum stress calculated from the stress distribution of a structure is widely used. The stress distribution can be estimated by deformed shape of the structure obtained from measurement. Although the estimation of stress is strongly affected by the location and number of sensing points, most studies have conducted the stress estimation without reasonable basis on sensing plan such as the location and number of sensors. In this paper, an optimal sensing technique for estimating the stress distribution is proposed. This technique proposes the optimal location and number of sensing points for a 2-D frame structure while minimizing the error of stress distribution between analytical model and estimation by cubic smoothing splines using genetic algorithm. To verify the proposed method, the optimal sensor measurement technique is applied to simulation tests on 2-D steel frame structure. The simulation tests are performed under various loading scenarios. Through those tests, the optimal sensing plan for the structure is suggested and verified.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, optimal sensing, optimizing sensor placements, steel frame structure

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Authors: Juan F. Muñoz-Rosas, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Encarnación Álvarez-Verdejo, Pablo J. Moya-Fernández

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Poverty measurement is a very important topic in many studies in social sciences. One of the most important indicators when measuring poverty is the low income proportion. This indicator gives the proportion of people of a population classified as poor. This indicator is generally unknown, and for this reason, it is estimated by using survey data, which are obtained by official surveys carried out by many statistical agencies such as Eurostat. The main feature of the mentioned survey data is the fact that they contain several variables. The variable used to estimate the low income proportion is called as the variable of interest. The survey data may contain several additional variables, also named as the auxiliary variables, related to the variable of interest, and if this is the situation, they could be used to improve the estimation of the low income proportion. In this paper, we use Monte Carlo simulation studies to analyze numerically the performance of estimators based on several auxiliary variables. In this simulation study, we considered real data sets obtained from the 2011 European Union Survey on Income and Living Condition. Results derived from this study indicate that the estimators based on auxiliary variables are more accurate than the naive estimator.

Keywords: inclusion probability, poverty, poverty line, survey sampling

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Authors: Zhenming Wang, Jun Zhu, Yuchen Yang, Ning Zhao

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In the present paper, an alternative framework is proposed to construct a class of finite difference multi-resolution nested weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO) schemes with an increasingly higher order of accuracy for solving inviscid Euler equations. These WENO schemes firstly obtain a set of reconstruction polynomials by a hierarchy of nested central spatial stencils, and then recursively achieve a higher order approximation through the lower-order precision WENO schemes. The linear weights of such WENO schemes can be set as any positive numbers with a requirement that their sum equals one and they will not pollute the optimal order of accuracy in smooth regions and could simultaneously suppress spurious oscillations near discontinuities. Numerical results obtained indicate that these alternative finite-difference multi-resolution nested WENO schemes with different accuracies are very robust with low dissipation and use as few reconstruction stencils as possible while maintaining the same efficiency, achieving the high-resolution property without any equivalent multi-resolution representation. Besides, its finite volume form is easier to implement in unstructured grids.

Keywords: finite-difference, WENO schemes, high order, inviscid Euler equations, multi-resolution

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Authors: Mohamed Khalifa Zayet, Salma Belal Eiid, Mushira Mohamed Dahaba

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Introduction: Malignant tumors may not be easily detected by traditional radiographic techniques especially in an anatomically complex area like maxillofacial region. At the same time, the advent of biological functional MRI was a significant footstep in the diagnostic imaging field. Objective: The purpose of this study was to define the malignant metabolic profile of maxillofacial lesions using diffusion MRI and magnetic resonance spectroscopy, as adjunctive aids for diagnosing of such lesions. Subjects and Methods: Twenty-one patients with twenty-two lesions were enrolled in this study. Both morphological and functional MRI scans were performed, where T1, T2 weighted images, diffusion-weighted MRI with four apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps were constructed for analysis, and magnetic resonance spectroscopy with qualitative and semi-quantitative analyses of choline and lactate peaks were applied. Then, all patients underwent incisional or excisional biopsies within two weeks from MR scans. Results: Statistical analysis revealed that not all the parameters had the same diagnostic performance, where lactate had the highest areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.9 and choline was the lowest with insignificant diagnostic value. The best cut-off value suggested for lactate was 0.125, where any lesion above this value is supposed to be malignant with 90 % sensitivity and 83.3 % specificity. Despite that ADC maps had comparable AUCs still, the statistical measure that had the final say was the interpretation of likelihood ratio. As expected, lactate again showed the best combination of positive and negative likelihood ratios, whereas for the maps, ADC map with 500 and 1000 b-values showed the best realistic combination of likelihood ratios, however, with lower sensitivity and specificity than lactate. Conclusion: Diffusion weighted imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy are state-of-art in the diagnostic arena and they manifested themselves as key players in the differentiation process of orofacial tumors. The complete biological profile of malignancy can be decoded as low ADC values, high choline and/or high lactate, whereas that of benign entities can be translated as high ADC values, low choline and no lactate.

Keywords: diffusion magnetic resonance imaging, magnetic resonance spectroscopy, malignant tumors, maxillofacial

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Authors: Citra Pertiwi, Muhammad Fikruzzaman Rahawarin

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Government of Indonesia had committed to increasing its national defense the budget up to 1,5 percent of GDP. However, the budget increase does not necessarily allocate efficiently and effectively. Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the operational units of Indonesian Armed Forces are considered as a proxy to measure those two aspects. The bootstrap technique is being used as well to reduce uncertainty in the estimation. Additionally, technological change is being measured as a nonstationary component. Nearly half of the units are being estimated as fully efficient, with less than a third is considered as effective. Longer and larger sets of data might increase the robustness of the estimation in the future.

Keywords: bootstrap, effectiveness, efficiency, DEA, military, Malmquist, technological change

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar

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Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a holistic documentation process for operational visualization, design coordination, estimation and project scheduling. BIM software defines objects parametrically and it is a tool for virtual reality. Primary advantage of implementing BIM is the visual coordination of the building structure and systems such as Mechanical, Electrical and Plumbing (MEP) and it also identifies the possible conflicts between the building systems. This paper is an attempt to develop a risk based BIM model which would highlight the primary advantages of application of BIM pertaining to urban infrastructure transportation project. It has been observed that about 40% of the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) companies use BIM but primarily for their outsourced projects. Also, 65% of the respondents agree that BIM would be used quiet strongly for future construction projects in India. The 3D models developed with Revit 2015 software would reduce co-ordination problems amongst the architects, structural engineers, contractors and building service providers (MEP). Integration of risk management along with BIM would provide enhanced co-ordination, collaboration and high probability of successful completion of the complex infrastructure transportation project within stipulated time and cost frame.

Keywords: building information modeling (BIM), infrastructure transportation, project risk management, underground metro rail

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Authors: Wenting Zhang, Shishi Liu, Peihong Fu

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As an indicator of air quality and directly related to concentration of ground PM2.5, the spatial-temporal variation and impact factor analysis of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) have been a hot spot in air pollution. This paper concerns the non-stationarity and the autocorrelation (with Moran’s I index of 0.75) of the AOD in Wuhan agglomeration (WHA), in central China, uses the geographically weighted regression (GRW) to identify the spatial relationship of AOD and its impact factors. The 3 km AOD product of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) is used in this study. Beyond the economic-social factor, land use density factors, vegetable cover, and elevation, the landscape metric is also considered as one factor. The results suggest that the GWR model is capable of dealing with spatial varying relationship, with R square, corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) and standard residual better than that of ordinary least square (OLS) model. The results of GWR suggest that the urban developing, forest, landscape metric, and elevation are the major driving factors of AOD. Generally, the higher AOD trends to located in the place with higher urban developing, less forest, and flat area.

Keywords: aerosol optical depth, geographically weighted regression, land use change, Wuhan agglomeration

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Authors: M. Budakoglu, M. Karaman, A. Abdelnasser, M. Kumral

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The spatial interpolation and spatial correlation of the rare earth elements (REE) of lake surface sediments of Lake Acıgöl and its surrounding lithological units is carried out by using GIS techniques like Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) techniques. IDW technique which makes the spatial interpolation shows that the lithological units like Hayrettin Formation at north of Lake Acigol have high REE contents than lake sediments as well as ∑LREE and ∑HREE contents. However, Eu/Eu* values (based on chondrite-normalized REE pattern) show high value in some lake surface sediments than in lithological units and that refers to negative Eu-anomaly. Also, the spatial interpolation of the V/Cr ratio indicated that Acıgöl lithological units and lake sediments deposited in in oxic and dysoxic conditions. But, the spatial correlation is carried out by GWR technique. This technique shows high spatial correlation coefficient between ∑LREE and ∑HREE which is higher in the lithological units (Hayrettin Formation and Cameli Formation) than in the other lithological units and lake surface sediments. Also, the matching between REEs and Sc and Al refers to REE abundances of Lake Acıgöl sediments weathered from local bedrock around the lake.

Keywords: spatial geochemical modeling, IDW, GWR techniques, REE, lake sediments, Lake Acıgöl, Turkey

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Authors: V. Polenta, S. D. Garvey, D. Chronopoulos, A. C. Long, H. P. Morvan

Abstract:

A parametric study on circular thin-walled pipes subjected to pure bending is performed. Both straight and curved pipes are considered. Ratio D/t, initial pipe curvature and internal pressure are the parameters varying in the analyses. The study is mainly FEA-based. It is found that negative curvatures (opposite to bending moment) considerably increase stiffness and buckling limit of the pipe when no internal pressure is acting and, similarly, positive curvatures decrease the stiffness and buckling limit. For internal pressurised pipes the effects of initial pipe curvature are less relevant. Results show that this phenomenon is in relationship with the cross-section deformation due to bending moment, which undergoes relevant ovalisation for no pressurised pipes and little ovalisation for pressurised pipes.

Keywords: buckling, curved pipes, internal pressure, ovalisation, pure bending, thin-walled pipes

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Authors: Salim H. Al Salmani, Kevin Tansey, Mohammed S. Ozigis

Abstract:

The study of the growth of built-up areas and settlement expansion is a major exercise that city managers seek to undertake to establish previous and current developmental trends. This is to ensure that there is an equal match of settlement expansion needs to the appropriate levels of services and infrastructure required. This research aims at demonstrating the potential of satellite image processing technique, harnessing the utility of single feature probability-object based image analysis technique in assessing the urban growth dynamics of the Muscat Governorate in Oman for the period 1990, 2002 and 2013. This need is fueled by the continuous expansion of the Muscat Governorate beyond predicted levels of infrastructural provision. Landsat Images of the years 1990, 2002 and 2013 were downloaded and preprocessed to forestall appropriate radiometric and geometric standards. A novel approach of probability filtering of the target feature segment was implemented to derive the spatial extent of the final Built-Up Area of the Muscat governorate for the three years period. This however proved to be a useful technique as high accuracy assessment results of 55%, 70%, and 71% were recorded for the Urban Landcover of 1990, 2002 and 2013 respectively. Furthermore, the Normalized Differential Built – Up Index for the various images were derived and used to consolidate the results of the SFP-OBIA through a linear regression model and visual comparison. The result obtained showed various hotspots where urbanization have sporadically taken place. Specifically, settlement in the districts (Wilayat) of AL-Amarat, Muscat, and Qurayyat experienced tremendous change between 1990 and 2002, while the districts (Wilayat) of AL-Seeb, Bawshar, and Muttrah experienced more sporadic changes between 2002 and 2013.

Keywords: urban growth, single feature probability, object based image analysis, landcover change

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Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

Abstract:

Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.

Keywords: wind energy project, uncertain resources, risks, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

Abstract:

Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

Procedia PDF Downloads 60