Search results for: F. U. Babar

Authors: Muhammad Zafar Khan, Babar Khan, Muhammad Saeed Awan, Farida Begum

Abstract:

Livestock depredation has greater significance in pastoral societies like Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindu Kush mountain ranges. The dynamics of depredation by large predators (snow leopard and wolf) and its implications for conservation and livelihoods of local people was investigated by household surveys in Hushey valley of Central Karakoram National Park, Pakistan. We found that, during five years (2008-12) 90% of the households in the valley had lost their livestock to snow leopard and wolf, accounting for 4.3% of the total livestock holding per year. On average each household had to bear a loss of 0.8 livestock head per year, equivalent to Pak Rupees 9,853 (US$ 101), or 10% of the average annual cash income. Majority of the predation incidences occurred during late summer in alpine pastures, mostly at night when animals were not penned properly. The prey animals in most of the cases were females or young ones. Of the total predation incidences, 60% were attributed to snow leopard, 37% to wolf, while in 3% the predator was unknown. The fear of snow leopard is greater than that of wolf. As immediate response on predation, majority of the local people (64%, n=99) preferred to report the case to their village conservation committee, 32% had no response while only 1% tended to kill the predator. The perceived causes of predation were: poor guarding practices (77%); reduction in wild prey (13%) and livestock being the favourite food of predators (10%). The most preferred strategies for predator management, according to the respondents were improved and enhanced guarding of livestock (72%), followed by increasing wild prey (18%) and lethal control (10%). To strike a balance between predator populations and pastoral livelihoods, better animal husbandry practices should be promoted including: improved guarding through collective hiring of skilled shepherds; corral improvement and use of guard dogs.

Keywords: Panthera unica, Canis lupus, Karakoram, human-carnivore conflict, predation

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Authors: Chandrakant Gurav, Md. Babar

Abstract:

In the present study, an attempt is made to delineate the comparative morphometric analysis of Ambardi and Mangari watersheds of Kadvi and Kasari rivers sub-basins, Kolhapur District, Maharashtra India, using Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques. GIS is a computer assisted information method to store, analyze and display spatial data. Both the watersheds originate from Masai plateau of Jotiba- Panhala Hill range in Panhala Taluka of Kolhapur district. Ambardi watersheds cover 42.31 Sq. km. area and occur in northern hill slope, whereas Mangari watershed covers 54.63 Sq. km. area and occur on southern hill slope. Geologically, the entire study area is covered by Deccan Basaltic Province (DBP) of late Cretaceous to early Eocene age. Laterites belonging to late Pleistocene age also occur in the top of the hills. The objective of the present study is to carry out the morphometric parameters of watersheds, which occurs in differing slopes of the hill. Morphometric analysis of Ambardi watershed indicates it is of 4th order stream and Mangari watershed is of 5th order stream. Average bifurcation ratio of both watersheds is 5.4 and 4.0 showing that in both the watersheds streams flow from homogeneous nature of lithology and there is no structural controlled in development of the watersheds. Drainage density of Ambardi and Mangari watersheds is 3.45 km/km2 and 3.81 km/km2 respectively, and Stream Frequency is 4.51 streams/ km2 and 5.97 streams/ km2, it indicates that high drainage density and high stream frequency is governed by steep slope and low infiltration rate of the area for groundwater recharge. Textural ratio of both the watersheds is 6.6 km-1 and 9.6 km-1, which indicates that the drainage texture is fine to very fine. Form factor, circularity ratio and elongation ratios of the Ambardi and Mangari watersheds shows that both the watersheds are elongated in shape. The basin relief of Ambardi watershed is 447 m, while Mangari is 456 m. Relief ratio of Ambardi is 0.0428 and Mangari is 0.040. The ruggedness number of Ambardi is 1.542 and Mangari watershed is 1.737. The ruggedness number of both the watersheds is high which indicates the relief and drainage density is high.

Keywords: Ambardi, Deccan basalt, GIS, morphometry, Mangari, watershed

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Authors: Diane Ghanem, Oscar Covarrubias, Michael Raad, Dawn LaPorte, Babar Shafiq

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Introduction: Standardized exams have long been considered a cornerstone in measuring cognitive competency and academic achievement. Their fixed nature and predetermined scoring methods offer a consistent yardstick for gauging intellectual acumen across diverse demographics. Consequently, the performance of artificial intelligence (AI) in this context presents a rich, yet unexplored terrain for quantifying AI's understanding of complex cognitive tasks and simulating human-like problem-solving skills. Publicly available AI language models such as ChatGPT have demonstrated utility in text generation and even problem-solving when provided with clear instructions. Amidst this transformative shift, the aim of this study is to assess ChatGPT’s performance on the orthopaedic surgery in-training examination (OITE). Methods: All 213 OITE 2021 web-based questions were retrieved from the AAOS-ResStudy website. Two independent reviewers copied and pasted the questions and response options into ChatGPT Plus (version 4.0) and recorded the generated answers. All media-containing questions were flagged and carefully examined. Twelve OITE media-containing questions that relied purely on images (clinical pictures, radiographs, MRIs, CT scans) and could not be rationalized from the clinical presentation were excluded. Cohen’s Kappa coefficient was used to examine the agreement of ChatGPT-generated responses between reviewers. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the performance (% correct) of ChatGPT Plus. The 2021 norm table was used to compare ChatGPT Plus’ performance on the OITE to national orthopaedic surgery residents in that same year. Results: A total of 201 were evaluated by ChatGPT Plus. Excellent agreement was observed between raters for the 201 ChatGPT-generated responses, with a Cohen’s Kappa coefficient of 0.947. 45.8% (92/201) were media-containing questions. ChatGPT had an average overall score of 61.2% (123/201). Its score was 64.2% (70/109) on non-media questions. When compared to the performance of all national orthopaedic surgery residents in 2021, ChatGPT Plus performed at the level of an average PGY3. Discussion: ChatGPT Plus is able to pass the OITE with a satisfactory overall score of 61.2%, ranking at the level of third-year orthopaedic surgery residents. More importantly, it provided logical reasoning and justifications that may help residents grasp evidence-based information and improve their understanding of OITE cases and general orthopaedic principles. With further improvements, AI language models, such as ChatGPT, may become valuable interactive learning tools in resident education, although further studies are still needed to examine their efficacy and impact on long-term learning and OITE/ABOS performance.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ChatGPT, orthopaedic in-training examination, OITE, orthopedic surgery, standardized testing

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Authors: William Elnemer, Nauman Hussain, Samir Al-Ali, Henry Shu, Diane Ghanem, Babar Shafiq

Abstract:

Introduction: The incidence of infection in open tibial shaft injuries varies depending on the severity of the injury, with rates ranging from 1.8% for Gustilo-Anderson type I to 42.9% for type IIIB fractures. The timely administration of antibiotics upon presentation to the emergency department (ED) is an essential component of fracture management, and evidence indicates that prompt delivery of antibiotics is associated with improved outcomes. The objective of this study is to identify factors that contribute to the expedient administration of antibiotics. Methods: This is a retrospective study of open tibial shaft fractures at an academic Level I trauma center. Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes identified all patients treated for open tibial shaft fractures between 2015 and 2021. Open fractures were identified by reviewing ED and provider notes, and with ballistic fractures were considered open. Chart reviews were performed to extract demographics, fracture characteristics, postoperative outcomes, time to operative room, time to antibiotic order, and delivery. Univariate statistical analysis compared patients who received early antibiotics (EA), which were delivered within one hour of ED presentation, and those who received late antibiotics (LA), which were delivered outside of one hour of ED presentation. A multivariate analysis was performed to investigate patient, fracture, and transport/ED characteristics contributing to faster delivery of antibiotics. The multivariate analysis included the dependent variables: ballistic fracture, activation of Delta Trauma, Gustilo-Andersen (Type III vs. Type I and II), AO-OTA Classification (Type C vs. Type A and B), arrival between 7 am and 11 pm, and arrival via Emergency Medical Services (EMS) or walk-in. Results: Seventy ED patients with open tibial shaft fractures were identified. Of these, 39 patients (55.7%) received EA, while 31 patients (44.3%) received LA. Univariate analysis shows that the arrival via EMS as opposed to walk-in (97.4% vs. 74.2%, respectively, p = 0.01) and activation of Delta Trauma (89.7% vs. 51.6%, respectively, p < 0.001) was significantly higher in the EA group vs. the LA group. Additionally, EA cases had significantly shorter intervals between the antibiotic order and delivery when compared to LA cases (0.02 hours vs. 0.35 hours, p = 0.007). No other significant differences were found in terms of postoperative outcomes or fracture characteristics. Multivariate analysis shows that a Delta Trauma Response, arrival via EMS, and presentation between 7 am and 11 pm were independent predictors of a shorter time to antibiotic administration (Odds Ratio = 11.9, 30.7, and 5.4, p = 0.001, 0.016, and 0.013, respectively). Discussion: Earlier antibiotic delivery is associated with arrival to the ED between 7 am and 11 pm, arrival via EMS, and a coordinated Delta Trauma activation. Our findings indicate that in cases where administering antibiotics is critical to achieving positive outcomes, it is advisable to employ a coordinated Delta Trauma response. Hospital personnel should be attentive to the rapid administration of antibiotics to patients with open fractures who arrive via walk-in or during late-night hours.

Keywords: antibiotics, emergency department, fracture management, open tibial shaft fractures, orthopaedic surgery, time to or, trauma fractures

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Authors: Diane Ghanem, Arjun Gupta, Rohan Vijayan, Ali Uneri, Babar Shafiq

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Introduction: Ankle sprains and fractures often result in syndesmosis injuries. Unstable syndesmotic injuries result from relative motion between the distal ends of the tibia and fibula, anatomic juncture which should otherwise be rigid, and warrant operative management. Clinical and radiological evaluations of intraoperative syndesmosis stability remain a challenging task as traditional 2D fluoroscopy is limited to a uniplanar translational displacement. The purpose of this pilot cadaveric study is to compare the 2D fluoroscopy and 3D cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) stress-induced syndesmosis displacements. Methods: Three fresh-frozen lower legs underwent 2D fluoroscopy and 3D CIOS CBCT to measure syndesmosis position before dissection. Syndesmotic injury was simulated by resecting the (1) anterior inferior tibiofibular ligament (AITFL), the (2) posterior inferior tibiofibular ligament (PITFL) and the inferior transverse ligament (ITL) simultaneously, followed by the (3) interosseous membrane (IOM). Manual external rotation and Cotton stress test were performed after each of the three resections and 2D and 3D images were acquired. Relevant 2D and 3D parameters included the tibiofibular overlap (TFO), tibiofibular clear space (TCS), relative rotation of the fibula, and anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) translations of the fibula relative to the tibia. Parameters were measured by two independent observers. Inter-rater reliability was assessed by intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) to determine measurement precision. Results: Significant mismatches were found in the trends between the 2D and 3D measurements when assessing for TFO, TCS and AP translation across the different resection states. Using 3D CBCT, TFO was inversely proportional to the number of resected ligaments while TCS was directly proportional to the latter across all cadavers and ‘resection + stress’ states. Using 2D fluoroscopy, this trend was not respected under the Cotton stress test. 3D AP translation did not show a reliable trend whereas 2D AP translation of the fibula was positive under the Cotton stress test and negative under the external rotation. 3D relative rotation of the fibula, assessed using the Tang et al. ratio method and Beisemann et al. angular method, suggested slight overall internal rotation with complete resection of the ligaments, with a change < 2mm - threshold which corresponds to the commonly used buffer to account for physiologic laxity as per clinical judgment of the surgeon. Excellent agreement (>0.90) was found between the two independent observers for each of the parameters in both 2D and 3D (overall ICC 0.9968, 95% CI 0.995 - 0.999). Conclusions: The 3D CIOS CBCT appears to reliably depict the trend in TFO and TCS. This might be due to the additional detection of relevant rotational malpositions of the fibula in comparison to the standard 2D fluoroscopy which is limited to a single plane translation. A better understanding of 3D imaging may help surgeons identify the precise measurements planes needed to achieve better syndesmosis repair.

Keywords: 2D fluoroscopy, 3D computed tomography, image processing, syndesmosis injury

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Authors: Saeed Abbas, Rahilla Tabassum, Haider Abbas, Babar Khan, Shahid Hussain, Muhammad Zafar Khan, Fazal Karim, Yawar Abbas, Rizwan Karim

Abstract:

Human–carnivore conflict is considered to be a major conservation and rural livelihood concern because many carnivore species have been heavily victimized due to elevated conflict levels with communities. Like other snow leopard range countries, this situation prevails in Pakistan, where WWF is currently working under Asia High Mountain Project (AHMP) in Gilgit-Baltistan of Pakistan. To mitigate such conflicts requires a firm understanding of grazing and predation pattern including human-carnivore interaction. For this purpose we conducted a survey in Hoper valley (one of the AHMP project sites in Pakistan), during August, 2013 through a questionnaire based survey and unstructured interviews covering 647 households, permanently residing in the project area out of the total 900 households. The valley, spread over 409 km2 between 36°7'46" N and 74°49'2"E, at 2900m asl in Karakoram ranges is considered to be one of an important habitat of snow leopard and associated prey species such as Himalayan ibex. The valley is home of 8100 Brusho people (ancient tribe of Northern Pakistan) dependent on agro-pastoral livelihoods including farming and livestock rearing. The total number of livestock reported were (N=15,481) out of which 8346 (53.91%) were sheep, 3546 (22.91%) goats, 2193 (14.16%) cows, 903 (5.83%) yaks, 508 (3.28%) bulls, 28 (0.18%) donkeys, 27 (0.17%) zo/zomo (cross breed of yak and cow), and 4 (0.03%) horses. 83 percent respondent (n=542 households) confirmed loss of their livestock during the last one year July, 2012 to June, 2013 which account for 2246 (14.51%) animals. The major reason of livestock loss include predation by large carnivores such as snow leopards and wolf (1710, 76.14%) followed by diseases (536, 23.86%). Of the total predation cases snow leopard is suspected to kill 1478 animals (86.43%). Among livestock sheep were found to be the major prey of snow leopard (810, 55%) followed by goats (484, 32.7%) cows (151, 10.21%), yaks (15, 1.015%), zo/zomo (7, 0.5%) and donkey (1, 0.07%). The reason for the mass depredation of sheep and goats is that they tend to browse on twigs of bushes and graze on soft grass near cliffs. They are also considered to be very active as compared to other species in moving quickly and covering more grazing area. This makes them more vulnerable to snow leopard attack. The majority (1283, 75%) of livestock killed by predators occurred during the warm season (May-September) in alpine and sub-alpine pastures and remaining (427, 25%) occurred in the winter season near settlements in valley. It was evident from the recent study that Snow leopard kills outside the pen were (1351, 79.76%) as compared to inside pen (359, 20.24%). Assessing the economic loss of livestock predation we found that the total loss of livestock predation in the study area is equal to PKR 11,230,000 (USD 105,797), which is about PRK 17, 357 (USD 163.51) per household per year. Economic loss incurred by the locals due to predation is quite significant where the average cash income per household per year is PKR 85,000 (USD 800.75).

Keywords: carnivores, conflict, predation, livelihood, conservation, rural, snow leopard, livestock

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