Search results for: exchange rate risk

Authors: R. S. Dinesh Madhavan, M. Logaraj

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Background: Recent studies have documented an increase in the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and a high rate of progression to hypertension in persons with pre hypertension. The risk factors for the growing burden of cardiovascular diseases especially hypertension, diabetes, overweight or obesity and waist hip ratio are increasing. Much study has not been done on cardiovascular risk factors associated with blood pressure (BP) among college students in Indian population. Objectives: The objective of our study was to estimate the prevalence of prehypertension among male students and to assess the association between prehypertension and risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among students of a university situated in the suburban area of Chennai. A total of 403 students was studied which included 200 medical and 203 engineering students. The information on selected socio-demographic variables were collected with the help of pre tested structured questionnaire. Measurements of height, weight, blood pressure and postprandial blood glucose were carried out as per standard procedure. Results: The mean age of the participants was 19.56 ± 1.67years. The mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure were 125.80±10.03 mm of Hg and 78.96 ±11.75mm of Hg. The average intake of fruits and vegetable per week were 4.34 ±3.47days and 6.55±4.39 days respectively. Use of smoke and smokeless tobacco were 27.3% and 3% respectively. About 30.3% of the students consume alcohol. Nearly 45.9 % of them did not practice regular exercise. About 29 % were overweight and 5.7% were obese, 24.8% were with waist circumference above 90 centimeters. The prevalence of pre hypertension and hypertension was 49.6% and 19.1% among male students. The prevalence of pre hypertension was higher in medical students (51.5%) compared to engineering students (47.8%). Higher risk of being pre hypertensive were noted above the age of 20 years (OR=4.32), fruit intake less than 3 days a week (OR= 1.03), smokers (OR= 1.13), alcohol intake (OR=1.56), lack of physical exercise (OR=1.90), BMI of more than 25 kg/m2 (OR=1.99). But statistically significant difference was noted between pre hypertensive and normotensive for age (p<0.0001), lack of physical exercise (p=0.004) and BMI (p=0.015). Conclusion: In conclusion nearly half of the students were pre hypertensive. Higher prevalence of smoking, alcohol intake, lack of physical exercise, overweight and increased waist circumference and postprandial blood sugar more than 140 mg/dl was noted among pre-hypertensive compared to normotensive.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, prehypertension, risk factors, undergraduate Students

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Authors: Ghada S. Ellithy, John. W. Murphy, Maureen K. Corcoran

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Erosion rate of soils during a levee or dam overtopping event is a major component in risk assessment evaluation of breach time and downstream consequences. The mechanism and evolution of dam or levee breach caused by overtopping erosion is a complicated process and difficult to measure during overflow due to accessibility and quickly changing conditions. In this paper, the results of a flume erosion tests are presented and discussed. The tests are conducted on a coarse-grained material with a median grain size D50 of 5 mm in a 1-m (3-ft) wide flume under varying flow rates. Each test is performed by compacting the soil mix r to its near optimum moisture and dry density as determined from standard Proctor test in a box embedded in the flume floor. The box measures 0.45 m wide x 1.2 m long x 0.25 m deep. The material is tested several times at varying hydraulic loading to determine the erosion rate after equal time intervals. The water depth, velocity are measured at each hydraulic loading, and the acting bed shear is calculated. A shallow water lidar (SWL) system was utilized to record the progress of soil erodibility and water depth along the scanned profiles of the tested box. SWL is a non-contact system that transmits laser pulses from above the water and records the time-delay between top and bottom reflections. Results from the SWL scans are compared with before and after manual measurements to determine the erosion rate of the soil mix and other erosion parameters.

Keywords: coarse-grained materials, erosion rate, LIDAR system, soil erosion

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal

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In today’s world, companies are operating in dynamic, uncertain and ambiguous business environments. Globally, more companies are failing due to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors than ever. Corporate governance and risk management are intertwined in nature. For decades, corporate governance and risk management have been influenced by internal and external factors. Three schools of thought have influenced risk governance for decades: Agency theory, Contingency theory, and Institutional theory. Agency theory argues that agents have interests conflicting with principal interests and the information problem. Contingency theory suggests that risk management adoption is influenced by internal and external factors, while Institutional theory suggests that organizations legitimize risk management with regulators, competitors, and professional bodies. The conflicting objectives of theories have created problems for executives in organizations in the adoption of Risk Governance. So far, there are many studies that discussed risk culture and the role of actors in risk governance, but there are rare studies discussing the role of risk culture in the adoption of risk governance from a leadership style perspective. This study explores the adoption of risk governance in two contrasting industries, such as the Insurance and energy business, to understand whether risk governance is influenced by internal/external factors or whether risk culture is influenced by leaders. We draw empirical evidence by comparing the cases of an Indian insurance company and a renewable energy-based firm in India. We interviewed more than 20 senior executives of companies and collected annual reports, risk management policies, and more than 10 PPTs and other reports from 2017 to 2024. We visited the company for follow-up questions several times. The findings of my research revealed that both companies have used risk governance for strategic renewal of the company. Insurance companies use a transactional leadership style based on performance and reward for improving risk, while energy companies use rather symbolic management to make debt restructuring meaningful for stakeholders. Overall, both companies turned from loss-making to profitable ones in a few years. This comparative study highlights the role of different leadership styles in the adoption of risk governance. The study is also distinct as previous research rarely studied risk governance in two contrasting industries in reference to leadership styles.

Keywords: leadership style, corporate governance, risk management, risk culture, strategic renewal

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Authors: Samuel Capintero, Ole H. Petersen

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This paper examines the utilization of public-private partnerships for the building and operation of wastewater treatment plants. Our research focuses on risk allocation in this kind of projects. Our analysis builds on more than hundred wastewater treatment plants built and operated through PPP projects in Aragon (Spain). The paper illustrates the consequences of an inadequate management of construction risk and an unsuitable transfer of demand risk in wastewater treatment plants. It also shows that the involvement of many public bodies at local, regional and national level further increases the complexity of this kind of projects and make time delays more likely.

Keywords: wastewater, treatment plants, PPP, construction

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefiting companies. Usability is also the best factor that acts as a balance for both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk can be defined as a potential usability risk factor that a chosen action or activity may lead to a possible loss or an undesirable outcome. This could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible involved usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans to reduce potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: usability, usability risk, risk management, risk mitigation, delphi study

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Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

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Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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Authors: Vahdettin Sariyel, Birol Dag

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In this research, it is aimed to determine the effects of several environmental factors on adaptation and some yield parameters of Saanen goats reared under intensive conditions at a private farm in Konya province. Gestation rate, twins rate and litter size were evaluated as reproductive traits. Gestation rate was determined as 93.8% and 90.5% for 2011 and 2012 years respectively. Twins rate was determined as 59.35 % and 70.00 % for 2011 and 2012 years respectively. Litter size was 1.49 and 1.46 for 2011 and 2012 years respectively. Survival rates of kids from birth to weaning at three months of age were found as 87.74 % and 98.54 % for 2011 and 2012 years respectively.

Keywords: gestation rate, reproduction, saanen, twins rate, vitality

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Authors: Pheeraphat Ussadamongkol, Suthasinee Sinawat

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Objective: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the anatomical and visual outcomes associated with the use of heavy silicone oil (HSO) during pars plana vitrectomy (PPV) in patients with rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD). Materials and methods: A Total of 66 eyes of 66 patients with RRD patients who underwent PPV with HSO from 2018-2023 were included in this retrospective study. Risk factors of surgical outcomes were also investigated. Results: The mean age of the recruited patients was 55.26 ± 13.05 years. The most common diagnosis was recurrent RRD, with 43 patients (65.15%), and the majority of these patients (81.39%) had a history of multiple vitreoretinal surgeries. Inferior breaks and PVR grade ≧ C were present in 65.15% and 42.42% of cases, respectively. The mean duration of HSO tamponade was 7.77+5.19 months. The retinal attachment rate after surgery was 71.21%, with a final attachment rate of 87.88%. The mean final VA was 1.62 ± 1.11 logMAR. 54.54% of patients could achieve a final visual acuity (VA)  6/60. Multivariate analysis revealed that proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR) and multiple breaks were significantly associated with retinal redetachment, while initial good VA (  6/60) was associated with good visual outcome ( 6/60). The most common complications were glaucoma (30.3%) and epimacular membrane (7.58%). Conclusion: The use of heavy silicone oil in pars plana vitrectomy for rhegmatogenous retinal detachment yields favorable anatomical and visual outcomes. Factors associated with retinal redetachment are proliferative vitreoretinopathy and multiple breaks. Good initial VA can predict good visual outcomes.

Keywords: rhegmatogenous retinal detachment, heavy silicone oil, surgical outcome, visual outcome, risk factors

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

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This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), risk factors

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Authors: Jorge M. Uribe

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We propose a methodology for setting the price of an insurance contract targeted to manage the risk associated with weather conditions that affect variable renewable energy generation. The methodology relies on conditional quantile regressions to estimate the weather risk of a solar panel. It is illustrated using real daily radiation and weather data for three cities in Spain (Valencia, Barcelona and Madrid) from February 2/2004 to January 22/2019. We also adapt the concepts of value at risk and expected short fall from finance to this context, to provide a complete panorama of what we label as weather risk. The methodology is easy to implement and can be used by insurance companies to price a contract with the aforementioned characteristics when data about similar projects and accurate cash flow projections are lacking. Our methodology assigns a higher price to an insurance product with the stated characteristics in Madrid, compared to Valencia and Barcelona. This is consistent with Madrid showing the largest interquartile range of operational deficits and it is unrelated to the average value deficit, which illustrates the importance of our proposal.

Keywords: insurance, weather, vre, risk

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Authors: Masahiro Miyaji

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When a driver happens to be involved in some traffic congestion or after traffic incidents, the driver may fall in a state of anger. State of anger may encounter decisive risk resulting in severer traffic accidents. Preventive safety function using driver’s psychosomatic state with regard to anger may be one of solutions which would avoid that kind of risks. Identifying driver’s anger state is important to create countermeasures to prevent the risk of traffic accidents. As a first step, this research figured out root cause of traffic incidents by means of using Internet survey. From statistical analysis of the survey, dominant psychosomatic states immediately before traffic incidents were haste, distraction, drowsiness and anger. Then, we replicated anger state of a driver while driving, and then, replicated it by means of using driving simulator on bench test basis. Six types of facial expressions including anger were introduced as alternative characteristics. Kohonen neural network was adopted to classify anger state. Then, we created a methodology to detect anger state of a driver in high accuracy. We presented a driving support safety function. The function adapts driver’s anger state in cooperation with an autonomous driving unit to reduce the number of traffic accidents. Consequently, e evaluated reduction rate of driver’s anger in the traffic accident. To validate the estimation results, we referred the reduction rate of Advanced Safety Vehicle (ASV) as well as Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS).

Keywords: Kohonen neural network, driver’s anger state, reduction of traffic accidents, driver’s state adaptive driving support safety

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

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In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Seung Hun Lee, Sang Yeoup Lee

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Objectives: To investigate associations between degrees of obesity using correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: BMI, waist circumference (WC), fasting insulin, fasting glucose, lipids, and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) area using computed tomographic images were measured in 113 obese female without cardiovascular disease (CVD). Correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors were analyzed in obese subgroups defined using sequential obesity indices. Results: Mean BMI and WC were 29.6 kg/m2 and 92.8 cm. BMI showed significant correlations with all five cardiometabolic risk factors until the BMI cut-off point reached 27 kg/m2, but when it exceeded 30 kg/m2, correlations no longer existed. WC was significantly correlated with all five cardiometabolic risk factors up to a value of 85 cm, but when WC exceeded 90 cm, correlations no longer existed. Conclusions: Our data suggest that moderate weight-loss goals may not be enough to ameliorate cardiometabolic markers in severely obese patients. Therefore, individualized weight-loss goals should be recommended to such patients to improve health benefits.

Keywords: correlation, cardiovascular disease, risk factors, obesity

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Authors: Mohsin Sadaqat, Hilal Anwar Butt

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Following the stock selection guidelines provided by the Sharia Board (SB), we segregate the firms listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) into Sharia Compliant (SC) and Non-Sharia Compliant (NSC) stocks. Subsequently, we form portfolios within each group based on market capitalization and volatility. The purpose is to analyze and compare the performance of these two groups as the SC stocks have lesser diversification opportunities due to SB restrictions. Using data ranging from January 2004 until June 2016, our results indicate that in most of the cases the risk-adjusted returns (alphas) for the returns differential between SC and NCS firms are positive. In addition, the SC firms in comparison to their counterparts in PSX provides excess returns that are hedged against the market, size, and value-based systematic risks factors. Overall, these results reconcile with one prevailing notion that the SC stocks that have lower financial leverage and higher investment in real assets are lesser exposed to market-based risks. Further, the SC firms that are more capitalized and less volatile, perform better than lower capitalized and higher volatile SC and NSC firms. To sum up our results, we do not find any substantial evidence for opportunity loss due to limited diversification opportunities in case of SC firms. To optimally utilize scarce resources, investors should consider SC firms as a candidate in portfolio construction.

Keywords: diversification, performance, sharia compliant stocks, risk adjusted returns

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Authors: Giovana Nunes Inocêncio

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The professional and technological education (EPT) plays a pivotal role in equipping students for specialized careers, and it is imperative to establish a framework for efficient data exchange among educational institutions. The primary focus of this article is to address the pressing need for document interoperability within the context of EPT. The challenges, motivations, and benefits of implementing interoperability standards for digital educational documents are thoroughly explored. These documents include EPT completion certificates, academic records, and curricula. In conjunction with the prior abstract, it is evident that the intersection of IT governance and interoperability standards holds the key to transforming the landscape of technical education in Brazil. IT governance provides the strategic framework for effective data management, aligning with educational objectives, ensuring compliance, and managing risks. By adopting interoperability standards, the technical education sector in Brazil can facilitate data exchange, enhance data security, and promote international recognition of qualifications. The utilization of the XML (Extensible Markup Language) standard further strengthens the foundation for structured data exchange, fostering efficient communication, standardization of curricula, and enhancing educational materials. The IT governance, interoperability standards, and data management critical role in driving the quality, efficiency, and security of technical education. The adoption of these standards fosters transparency, stakeholder coordination, and regulatory compliance, ultimately empowering the technical education sector to meet the dynamic demands of the 21st century.

Keywords: interoperability, education, standards, governance

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Authors: Wei-Neng Wang, Jhy-Yuan Shieh, Jhy-Hwa Chen, Juin-Jen Chang

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This paper incorporate tax evasion into a one-sector real business cycle (RBC) model to explores the quantitative interrelations between income tax rate and equilibrium (in)determinacy, and income tax rate is endogenously determined in order to balance the government budget. We find that the level of the effective income tax rate is key factor for equilibrium (in)determinacy, instead of the level of income tax rate in a tax evasion economy. Under an economy with tax evasion, the higher income tax rate is not sufficiently to lead to equilibrium indeterminate, it must combine with a necessary condition which is the lower fraction of tax evasion and that can result in agents' optimistic expectations to become self-fulfilling and sunspot fluctuation more likely to occur. On the other hand, an economy with tax evasion can see its macroeconomy become more stabilize, and a higher fraction of income tax evasion may has a stronger stabilizing effect.

Keywords: tax evasion, balanced-budget rule, equlibirium (in)determinacy, effective income tax rate

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Authors: Cristina Domínguez, Steven N. Cuadra

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Aims: The aims of this study are: 1) to describe the occurrence and estimate the risk of suffering injuries of any kind, especially work-related injuries, in rural children working in agricultural activities and in urban children working on the street 2) to explore factors that might be associated with the occurrence of work-related injuries among child workers such as gender, school attendance, and performance of household chore. Method: We performed a crossectional study among working children in agricultural activities (120) and on the street (108) and in non-working referents (140) in 2019. We investigated self-reported injuries during the last 12 months, with focus on work-related injuries. Incidence rate, rate ratios, and 95% CI were calculated by Poisson regression. Results: Agricultural workers have a higher incidence of work-related injuries (2.1 per 1000 person-days) than children working on the street (1.8 per 1000 person-days). However, when considering girl’s unpaid work at home, girls had higher occurrence. Girls had a 30% increase on the risk of suffering work related injuries compared to boys. Performing household chore and attending school were the major predictors of injury occurrence. Discussion: Our data suggest If such partial and full-time girl’s housework is taken into account, there would be little or no variation between the sexes with regard to injuries occurrence, and the incidence rate of work related injuries among girls could even exceed that of boys A greater understanding of the interaction of factors related to how child workers spend their time, and its impact on children’s health, is needed in order to identify feasible and appropriate strategies to reduce the negative effect of work on children when elimination of child labor is not reachable in the short term. Clearly, gender aspects on child labor may allow for more effective targeting of prevention efforts.

Keywords: injuries, child labor, agricultural work, gender

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Authors: Havva Tutar Kahraman, Erol Pehlivan

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In recent years, environmental pollution by wastewater rises very critically. Effluents discharged from various industries cause this challenge. Different type of pollutants such as organic compounds, oxyanions, and heavy metal ions create this threat for human bodies and all other living things. However, heavy metals are considered one of the main pollutant groups of wastewater. Therefore, this case creates a great need to apply and enhance the water treatment technologies. Among adopted treatment technologies, adsorption process is one of the methods, which is gaining more and more attention because of its easy operations, the simplicity of design and versatility. Ion exchange process is one of the preferred methods for removal of heavy metal ions from aqueous solutions. It has found widespread application in water remediation technologies, during the past several decades. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to the removal of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), from aqueous solutions. Cr(VI) is considered as a well-known highly toxic metal which modifies the DNA transcription process and causes important chromosomic aberrations. The treatment and removal of this heavy metal have received great attention to maintaining its allowed legal standards. The purpose of the present paper is an attempt to investigate some aspects of the use of three anion exchange resins: Eichrom 1-X4, Lewatit Monoplus M800 and Lewatit A8071. Batch adsorption experiments were carried out to evaluate the adsorption capacity of these three commercial resins in the removal of Cr(VI) from aqueous solutions. The chromium solutions used in the experiments were synthetic solutions. The parameters that affect the adsorption, solution pH, adsorbent concentration, contact time, and initial Cr(VI) concentration, were performed at room temperature. High adsorption rates of metal ions for the three resins were reported at the onset, and then plateau values were gradually reached within 60 min. The optimum pH for Cr(VI) adsorption was found as 3.0 for these three resins. The adsorption decreases with the increase in pH for three anion exchangers. The suitability of Freundlich, Langmuir and Scatchard models were investigated for Cr(VI)-resin equilibrium. Results, obtained in this study, demonstrate excellent comparability between three anion exchange resins indicating that Eichrom 1-X4 is more effective and showing highest adsorption capacity for the removal of Cr(VI) ions. Investigated anion exchange resins in this study can be used for the efficient removal of chromium from water and wastewater.

Keywords: adsorption, anion exchange resin, chromium, kinetics

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Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

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This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

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The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

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Authors: Yu-Jen Chang, Yun Chen, Hei-Lam Wong

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The Economic Lot Scheduling Problem (ELSP) is a valuable mathematical model that can support decision-makers to make scheduling decisions. The basic period approach is effective for solving the ELSP. The assumption for applying the basic period approach is that a product must use its maximum production rate to be produced. However, a product can lower its production rate to reduce the average total cost when a facility has extra idle time. The past researches discussed how a product adjusts its production rate under the common cycle approach. To the best of our knowledge, no studies have addressed how a product lowers its production rate under the basic period approach. This research is the first paper to discuss this topic. The research develops a simple fixed rate approach that adjusts the production rate of a product under the basic period approach to solve the ELSP. Our numerical example shows our approach can find a better solution than the traditional basic period approach. Our mathematical model that applies the fixed rate approach under the basic period approach can serve as a reference for other related researches.

Keywords: economic lot, basic period, genetic algorithm, fixed rate

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Authors: Wlodzimierz Ogryczak, Michal Przyluski, Tomasz Sliwinski

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In problems of portfolio selection, the reward-risk ratio criterion is optimized to search for a risky portfolio with the maximum increase of the mean return in proportion to the risk measure increase when compared to the risk-free investments. In the classical model, following Markowitz, the risk is measured by the variance thus representing the Sharpe ratio optimization and leading to the quadratic optimization problems. Several Linear Programming (LP) computable risk measures have been introduced and applied in portfolio optimization. In particular, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure has been widely recognized. The reward-risk ratio optimization with the MAD measure can be transformed into the LP formulation with the number of constraints proportional to the number of scenarios and the number of variables proportional to the total of the number of scenarios and the number of instruments. This may lead to the LP models with huge number of variables and constraints in the case of real-life financial decisions based on several thousands scenarios, thus decreasing their computational efficiency and making them hardly solvable by general LP tools. We show that the computational efficiency can be then dramatically improved by an alternative model based on the inverse risk-reward ratio minimization and by taking advantages of the LP duality. In the introduced LP model the number of structural constraints is proportional to the number of instruments thus not affecting seriously the simplex method efficiency by the number of scenarios and therefore guaranteeing easy solvability. Moreover, we show that under natural restriction on the target value the MAD risk-reward ratio optimization is consistent with the second order stochastic dominance rules.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, reward-risk ratio, mean absolute deviation, linear programming

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Authors: Andrea Leon, J. M. Florez, P. Vargas

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The effect of hydrogen adsorption on the magnetic properties of fcc Ni has been calculated using the linear-muffin-tin-orbital formalism and using the local-density approximation for the exchange y correlation. The calculations for the ground state show that the sequential addition of hydrogen atoms is found to monotonically reduce the total magnetic moment of the Ni fcc structure, as a result of changes in the exchange-splitting parameter and in the Fermi energy. In order to physically explain the effect of magnetization reduction as the Hydrogen concentration increases, we propose a Stoner impurity model to describe the influence of H impurity on the magnetic properties of Nickel.

Keywords: electronic structure, magnetic properties, Nickel hydride, stoner model

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Authors: Ljiljana Seric, Vladimir Divic, Marin Bugaric

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This paper presents methodology for spatial analysis of GIS data that is used for assessing the microlocation risk index from potential damages of high winds. The analysis is performed on freely available GIS data comprising information about wind load, terrain cover and topography of the area. The methodology utilizes the legislation of Eurocode norms for determination of wind load of buildings and constructions. The core of the methodology is adoption of the wind load parameters related to location on geographical spatial grid. Presented work is a part of the Wind Risk Project, supported by the European Commission under the Civil Protection Financial Instrument of the European Union (ECHO). The partners involved in Wind Risk project performed Wind Risk assessment and proposed action plan for three European countries – Slovenia, Croatia and Germany. The proposed method is implemented in GRASS GIS open source GIS software and demonstrated for Case study area of wider area of Split, Croatia. Obtained Wind Risk Index is visualized and correlated with critical infrastructures like buildings, roads and power lines. The results show good correlation between high Wind Risk Index with recent incidents related to wind.

Keywords: Eurocode norms, GIS, spatial analysis, wind distribution, wind risk

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity

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Authors: George Mariano Soriano

Abstract:

In this study, a Rapid Earthquake Risk Ranking Criteria was formulated by integrating various existing maps and databases by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Utilizing Geographic Information System (GIS) software, the above-mentioned maps and databases were used in extracting seismic hazard parameters and bridge vulnerability characteristics in order to rank the seismic damage risk rating of bridges in the National Capital Region.

Keywords: bridge, earthquake, GIS, hazard, risk, vulnerability

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Authors: James Kinyua Gitonga, Toshio Fujimi

Abstract:

Vulnerability assessment and analysis is essential to solving the degree of damage and loss as a result of natural disasters. Urban flooding causes a major economic loss and casualties, at Mathare residential area in Nairobi, Kenya. High population caused by rural-urban migration, Unemployment, and unplanned urban development are among factors that increase flood vulnerability in Mathare area. This study aims to analyse flood risk physical vulnerabilities in Mathare based on scientific data, research data that includes the Rainfall data, River Mathare discharge rate data, Water runoff data, field survey data and questionnaire survey through sampling of the study area have been used to develop the risk curves. Three structural types of building were identified in the study area, vulnerability and risk curves were made for these three structural types by plotting the relationship between flood depth and damage for each structural type. The results indicate that the structural type with mud wall and mud floor is the most vulnerable building to flooding while the structural type with stone walls and concrete floor is least vulnerable. The vulnerability of building contents is mainly determined by the number of floors, where households with two floors are least vulnerable, and households with a one floor are most vulnerable. Therefore more than 80% of the residential buildings including the property in the building are highly vulnerable to floods consequently exposed to high risk. When estimating the potential casualties/injuries we discovered that the structural types of houses were major determinants where the mud/adobe structural type had casualties of 83.7% while the Masonry structural type had casualties of 10.71% of the people living in these houses. This research concludes that flood awareness, warnings and observing the building codes will enable reduce damage to the structural types of building, deaths and reduce damage to the building contents.

Keywords: flood loss, Mathare Nairobi, risk curve analysis, vulnerability

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Authors: Karuna Sutthibenjakul, Sunisa Chatmongkolchart

Abstract:

Background: Postinduction hypotension is common and occurs more often in elderly patients. We aimed to determine risk factors for hypotension after induction among elderly patients (aged 65 years and older) who underwent elective non-cardiac surgery under general anesthesia. Methods: This cohort study analyzed from 580 data between December 2017 and July 2018 at a tertiary university hospital in south of Thailand. Hypotension is defined as more than 30% decrease mean arterial pressure from baseline after induction within 20 minutes or the use of vasopressive agent to treat low blood pressure. Intraoperative parameters were blood pressure and heart rate at T0, TEI, T5, T10, T15 and T20 (immediately after arrival at operating room, time after intubation, 5, 10, 15 and 20 minutes after intubation) respectively. Results: The median age was 72.5 (68, 78) years. A prevalence of post-induction hypotension was 64.8%. The highest prevalence (39.7%) was at 15 minutes after intubation. The association of post-induction hypotension is rising with diuretic drug as preoperative medication (P-value=0.016), hematocrit level (P-value=0.031) and the degree of hypertension immediately after arrival at operating room (P-value<0.001). Increasing fentanyl dosage during induction was associated with hypotension at intubation time (P-value<0.01) and 5 minutes after intubation (P-value<0.001). There was no statistically significant difference in the increasing propofol dosage. Conclusion: The degree of hypertension immediately after arrival at operating room and increasing fentanyl dosage were a significant risk factors for postinduction hypotension in elderly patients.

Keywords: risk factors, post-induction, hypotension, elderly

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Authors: Lutfi Abosrra, Alseddeq Alabaoub, Nuri Elhaloudi

Abstract:

Corrosion processes in the Oil & Gas industry can lead to failures that are usually costly to repair, costly in terms of loss of contaminated product, in terms of environmental damage and possibly costly in terms of human safety. This article describes the results of the corrosion review and criticality assessment done at Mellitah Gas (SRU unit) for pressure equipment and piping system. The information gathered through the review was intended for developing a qualitative RBI study. The corrosion criticality assessment has been carried out by applying company procedures and industrial recommended practices such as API 571, API 580/581, ASME PCC 3, which provides a guideline for establishing corrosion integrity assessment. The corrosion review is intimately related to the probability of failure (POF). During the corrosion study, the process units are reviewed by following the applicable process flow diagrams (PFDs) in the presence of Mellitah’s personnel from process engineering, inspection, and corrosion/materials and reliability engineers. The expected corrosion damage mechanism (internal and external) was identified, and the corrosion rate was estimated for every piece of equipment and corrosion loop in the process units. A combination of both Consequence and Likelihood of failure was used for determining the corrosion risk. A qualitative consequence of failure (COF) for each individual item was assigned based on the characteristics of the fluid as per its flammability, toxicity, and pollution into three levels (High, Medium, and Low). A qualitative probability of failure (POF)was applied to evaluate the internal and external degradation mechanism, a high-level point-based (0 to 10) for the purpose of risk prioritizing in the range of Low, Medium, and High.

Keywords: corrosion, criticality assessment, RBI, POF, COF

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