Search results for: Bayesian reasoning

Authors: Hernán A. Perez, Luis J. Armando, Néstor H. García

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Background and aims Cardiovascular disease rates are very high in patients with renal failure (CRF), but the underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors do not explain the increased risk, and observational studies have observed paradoxical or absent associations between classical risk factors and mortality in dialysis patients. A large randomized controlled trial, the 4D Study, the AURORA and the ALERT study found that statin therapy in CRF do not reduce cardiovascular events. These results may be the results of ‘accelerated atherosclerosis’ observed on these patients. The objective of this study was to investigate if carotid total plaque area (TPA), a measure of carotid plaque burden growth is increased at progressively lower creatinine clearance in patients with CRF. We studied a cohort of patients with CRF not on dialysis, reasoning that risk factor associations might be more easily discerned before end stage renal disease. Methods: The Blossom DMO Argentina ethics committee approved the study and informed consent from each participant was obtained. We performed a cohort study in 412 patients with Stage 1, 2 and 3 CRF. Clinical and laboratory data were obtained. TPA was determined using bilateral carotid ultrasonography. Modification of Diet in Renal Disease estimation formula was used to determine renal function. ANOVA was used when appropriate. Results: Stage 1 CRF group (n= 16, 43±2yo) had a blood pressure of 123±2/78±2 mmHg, BMI 30±1, LDL col 145±10 mg/dl, HbA1c 5.8±0.4% and had the lowest TPA 25.8±6.9 mm2. Stage 2 CRF (n=231, 50±1 yo) had a blood pressure of 132±1/81±1 mmHg, LDL col 125±2 mg/dl, HbA1c 6±0.1% and TPA 48±10mm2 ( p< 0.05 vs CRF stage 1) while Stage 3 CRF (n=165, 59±1 yo) had a blood pressure of 134±1/81±1, LDL col 125±3 mg/dl, HbA1c 6±0.1% and TPA 71±6mm2 (p < 0.05 vs CRF stage 1 and 2). Conclusion: Our data indicate that TPA increases along the renal function deterioration, and it is not related with the LDL cholesterol and triglycerides levels. We suggest that mechanisms other than the classics are responsible for the observed excess of cardiovascular disease in CKD patients and finally, determination of total plaque area should be used to measure effects of antiatherosclerotic therapy.

Keywords: hypertension, chronic renal failure, atherosclerosis, cholesterol

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Authors: Maryam Memarian, Mahmood Naghizadeh

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Deconstruction is an approach that is entirely incompatible with the traditional prevalent architecture. Considering the fact that this approach attempts to put architecture in sharp contrast with its opposite events and transpires with attending to the neglected and missing aspects of architecture and deconstructing its stable structures. It also recklessly proceeds beyond the existing frameworks and intends to create a different and more efficient prospect for space. The aim of deconstruction architecture is to satisfy both the prospective and retrospective visions as well as takes into account all tastes of the present in order to transcend time. Likewise, it ventures to fragment the facts and symbols of the past and extract new concepts from within their heart, which coincide with today’s circumstances. Since this approach is an attempt to surpass the limits of the prevalent architecture, it can be employed to design places in which creative events occur and imagination and ambition flourish. Thought-provoking artistic events can grow and mature in such places and be represented in the best way possible to all people. The concept of event proposed in the plan grows out of the interaction between space and creation. In addition to triggering surprise and high impressions, it is also considered as a bold journey into the suspended realms of the traditional conflicts in architecture such as architecture-landscape, interior-exterior, center-margin, product-process, and stability-instability. In this project, at first, through interpretive-historical research method and examining the inputs and data collection, recognition and organizing takes place. After evaluating the obtained data using deductive reasoning, the data is eventually interpreted. Given the fact that the research topic is in its infancy and there is not a similar case in Iran with limited number of corresponding instances across the world, the selected topic helps to shed lights on the unrevealed and neglected parts in architecture. Similarly, criticizing, investigating and comparing specific and highly prized cases in other countries with the project under study can serve as an introduction into this architecture style.

Keywords: anti-architecture, creativity, deconstruction, event

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Authors: Ben Khayut, Lina Fabri, Maya Avikhana

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The models of the modern Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) cannot: a) independently and continuously function without of human intelligence, used for retraining and reprogramming the ANI’s models, and b) think, understand, be conscious, cognize, infer, and more in state of Uncertainty, and changes in situations, and environmental objects. To eliminate these shortcomings and build a new generation of Artificial Intelligence systems, the paper proposes a Conception, Model, and Method of Computational Psycholinguistic Cognitive Situational-Fuzzy Self-Controlled Brain and Mind System (CPCSFSCBMSUU) using a neural network as its computational memory, operating under uncertainty, and activating its functions by perception, identification of real objects, fuzzy situational control, forming images of these objects, modeling their psychological, linguistic, cognitive, and neural values of properties and features, the meanings of which are identified, interpreted, generated, and formed taking into account the identified subject area, using the data, information, knowledge, and images, accumulated in the Memory. The functioning of the CPCSFSCBMSUU is carried out by its subsystems of the: fuzzy situational control of all processes, computational perception, identifying of reactions and actions, Psycholinguistic Cognitive Fuzzy Logical Inference, Decision making, Reasoning, Systems Thinking, Planning, Awareness, Consciousness, Cognition, Intuition, Wisdom, analysis and processing of the psycholinguistic, subject, visual, signal, sound and other objects, accumulation and using the data, information and knowledge in the Memory, communication, and interaction with other computing systems, robots and humans in order of solving the joint tasks. To investigate the functional processes of the proposed system, the principles of Situational Control, Fuzzy Logic, Psycholinguistics, Informatics, and modern possibilities of Data Science were applied. The proposed self-controlled System of Brain and Mind is oriented on use as a plug-in in multilingual subject Applications.

Keywords: computational brain, mind, psycholinguistic, system, under uncertainty

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Authors: Ana Maria Reis D'Azevedo Breda, Catarina Maria Neto da Cruz

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The Japanese art of origami provides a rich context for designing exploratory mathematical activities for children and young people. By folding a simple sheet of paper, fascinating and surprising planar and spatial configurations emerge. Equally surprising is the unfolding process, which also produces striking patterns. The procedure of folding, unfolding, and folding again allows the exploration of interesting geometric patterns. When adequately and systematically done, we may deduce some of the mathematical rules ruling origami. As the child/youth folds the sheet of paper repeatedly, he can physically observe how the forms he obtains are transformed and how they relate to the pattern of the corresponding unfolding, creating space for the understanding/discovery of mathematical principles regulating the folding-unfolding process. As part of a 2023 Summer Academy organized by a Portuguese university, a session entitled “Folding, Thinking and Generalizing” took place. Twenty-three students attended the session, all enrolled in the 2nd cycle of Portuguese Basic Education and aged between 10 and 12 years old. The main focus of this session was to foster the development of critical cognitive and socio-emotional skills among these young learners using origami. These skills included creativity, critical analysis, mathematical reasoning, collaboration, and communication. Employing a qualitative, descriptive, and interpretative analysis of data collected during the session through field notes and students’ written productions, our findings reveal that structured origami-based activities not only promote student engagement with mathematical concepts in a playful and interactive but also facilitate the development of socio-emotional skills, which include collaboration and effective communication between participants. This research highlights the value of integrating origami into educational practices, highlighting its role in supporting comprehensive cognitive and emotional learning experiences.

Keywords: skills, origami rules, active learning, hands-on activities

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Authors: Muhammad Farooq

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The present article explores the woman's consent as a paramount element in contracting a Muslim marriage. Also, whether permission of the wali (guardian) is a condition per se for a valid nikah (marriage deed) in the eye of law and Sharia. The researcher attempts to treat it through the related issues, inter alia; the marriage guardian, the women's legal capacity to give consent whether she is a virgin or nonvirgin and how that consent is to be given or may be understood. Does her laugh, tears or salience needs a legal interpretation as well as other female manifestations of emotion explained by the Muslim jurists? The silence of Muslim Family Law Ordinance 1961 (hereafter; MFLO 1961) in this regard and the likely reasons behind such silence is also inquired in brief. Germane to the theme, the various cases in which the true notion of woman's consent is interpreted by courts in Pakistan are also examined. In order to address the issue in hand, it is proposed to provide a brief overview of a few contemporary writers' opinions in which the real place of woman's consent in Muslim marriage is highlighted. Key to the idea of young Muslim woman's marriage, the doctrine of kafa'a (equality or suitability) between the man and woman is argued here to be grounded in the patriarchal and social norms. It is, therefore, concluded that such concept was the result of analogical reasoning and has less importance in the present time. As such it is not a valid factor in current scenarios to validate or invalidate marital bonds. A standard qualitative convention is used for this research. Among primary and secondary sources; for examples, Qur'an, Sunnah, Books, Scholarly articles, texts of law and case law is used to point out the researcher's view. In summation, the article is concluded with a bold statement that a young woman being a party to the contract, is absolutely entitled to 'full and free' consent for the Muslim marriage contract. It is the woman, an indispensable partaker and her consent (not the guardian' permission) that does validate or invalidate the said agreement in the eye of contemporary personal law and in Sharia.

Keywords: consent of woman, ejab (declaration), Nikah (marriage agreement), qabol (acceptance), sui juris (of age; independent), wali (guardian), wilayah (guardianship)

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Authors: Sara Tokhi Arab, Rozo Noguchi, Tofeal Ahamed

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Drought is a natural disaster that occurs in a region due to a lack of precipitation and high temperatures over a continuous period or in a single season as a consequence of climate change. Precipitation deficits and prolonged high temperatures mostly affect the agricultural sector, water resources, socioeconomics, and the environment. Consequently, it causes agricultural product loss, food shortage, famines, migration, and natural resources degradation in a region. Agriculture is the first sector affected by drought. Therefore, it is important to develop an agricultural drought risk and loss assessment to mitigate the drought impact in the agriculture sector. In this context, the main purpose of this study was to assess yield loss using composite drought indices in the drought-affected vineyards. In this study, the CDI was developed for the years 2016 to 2020 by comprising five indices: the vegetation condition index (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI), deviation of NDVI from the long-term mean (NDVI DEV), normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) and precipitation condition index (PCI). Moreover, the quantitative principal component analysis (PCA) approach was used to assign a weight for each input parameter, and then the weights of all the indices were combined into one composite drought index. Finally, Bayesian regularized artificial neural networks (BRANNs) were used to evaluate the yield variation in each affected vineyard. The composite drought index result indicated the moderate to severe droughts were observed across the Kabul Province during 2016 and 2018. Moreover, the results showed that there was no vineyard in extreme drought conditions. Therefore, we only considered the severe and moderated condition. According to the BRANNs results R=0.87 and R=0.94 in severe drought conditions for the years of 2016 and 2018 and the R= 0.85 and R=0.91 in moderate drought conditions for the years of 2016 and 2018, respectively. In the Kabul Province within the two years drought periods, there was a significate deficit in the vineyards. According to the findings, 2018 had the highest rate of loss almost -7 ton/ha. However, in 2016 the loss rates were about – 1.2 ton/ha. This research will support stakeholders to identify drought affect vineyards and support farmers during severe drought.

Keywords: grapes, composite drought index, yield loss, satellite remote sensing

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Authors: M. Shaheed Hartley

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There has been increasing pressure on education researchers and practitioners at higher education institutions to focus on the development of South Africa’s rural and peri-urban communities and improving their quality of life. Many tertiary institutions are obliged to review their outreach interventions in schools. To ensure that the support provided to schools is still relevant, a systemic evaluation of science educator needs is central to this process. These prioritised needs will serve as guide not only for the outreach projects of tertiary institutions, but also to service providers in general so that the process of addressing educators needs become coordinated, organised and delivered in a systemic manner. This paper describes one area of a broader needs assessment exercise to collect data regarding the needs of educators in a district of 45 secondary schools in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. This research focuses on the needs and challenges faced by science educators at these schools as articulated by the relevant stakeholders. The objectives of this investigation are two-fold: (1) to create a data base that will capture the needs and challenges identified by science educators of the selected secondary schools; and (2) to develop a needs profile for each of the participating secondary schools that will serve as a strategic asset to be shared with the various service providers as part of a community of practice whose core business is to support science educators and science education at large. The data was collected by a means of a needs assessment questionnaire (NAQ) which was developed in both actual and preferred versions. An open-ended questionnaire was also administered which allowed teachers to express their views. The categories of the questionnaire were predetermined by participating researchers, educators and education department officials. Group interviews were also held with the science teachers at each of the schools. An analysis of the data revealed important trends in terms of science educator needs and identified schools that can be clustered around priority needs, logistic reasoning and educator profiles. The needs database also provides opportunity for the community of practice to strategise and coordinate their interventions.

Keywords: needs assessment, science and mathematics education, evaluation, teaching and learning, South Africa

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Authors: Lien Gysens, Bert Vanmechelen, Maarten Haspeslagh, Piet Maes, Ann Martens

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Bovine papillomavirus (BPV) types 1 and 2 play a central role in the etiology of the most common neoplasm in horses, the equine sarcoid. The unknown mechanism behind the unique variety in a clinical presentation on the one hand and the host-dependent clinical outcome of BPV-1 infection, on the other hand, indicate the involvement of additional factors. Earlier studies have reported the potential functional significance of intratypic sequence variants, along with the existence of sarcoid-sourced BPV variants. Therefore, intratypic sequence variation seems to be an important emerging viral factor. This study aimed to give a broad insight in sarcoid-sourced BPV variation and explore its potential association with disease presentation. In order to do this, a nanopore sequencing approach was successfully optimized for screening a wide spectrum of clinical samples. Specimens of each tumour were initially screened for BPV-1/-2 by quantitative real-time PCR. A custom-designed primer set was used on BPV-positive samples to amplify the complete viral genome in two multiplex PCR reactions, resulting in a set of overlapping amplicons. For phylogenetic analysis, separate alignments were made of all available complete genome sequences for BPV-1/-2. The resulting alignments were used to infer Bayesian phylogenetic trees. We found substantial genetic variation among sarcoid-derived BPV-1, although this variation could not be linked to disease severity. Several of the BPV-1 genomes had multiple major deletions. Remarkably, the majority of the cluster within the region coding for late viral genes. Together with the extensiveness (up to 603 nucleotides) of the described deletions, this suggests an altered function of L1/L2 in disease pathogenesis. By generating a significant amount of complete-length BPV genomes, we succeeded in introducing next-generation sequencing into veterinary research focusing on the equine sarcoid, thus facilitating the first report of both nanopore-based sequencing of complete sarcoid-sourced BPV-1/-2 and the simultaneous nanopore sequencing of multiple complete genomes originating from a single clinical sample.

Keywords: Bovine papillomavirus, equine sarcoid, horse, nanopore sequencing, phylogenetic analysis

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Authors: Yosep Chong, Yejin Kim, Jingyun Choi, Hwanjo Yu, Eun Jung Lee, Chang Suk Kang

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For the past decades, immunohistochemistry (IHC) has been playing an important role in the diagnosis of human neoplasms, by helping pathologists to make a clearer decision on differential diagnosis, subtyping, personalized treatment plan, and finally prognosis prediction. However, the IHC performed in various tumors of daily practice often shows conflicting and very challenging results to interpret. Even comprehensive diagnosis synthesizing clinical, histologic and immunohistochemical findings can be helpless in some twisted cases. Another important issue is that the IHC data is increasing exponentially and more and more information have to be taken into account. For this reason, we reached an idea to develop an expert supporting system to help pathologists to make a better decision in diagnosing human neoplasms with IHC results. We gave probabilistic decision tree algorithm and tested the algorithm with real case data of lymphoid neoplasms, in which the IHC profile is more important to make a proper diagnosis than other human neoplasms. We designed probabilistic decision tree based on Bayesian theorem, program computational process using MATLAB (The MathWorks, Inc., USA) and prepared IHC profile database (about 104 disease category and 88 IHC antibodies) based on WHO classification by reviewing the literature. The initial probability of each neoplasm was set with the epidemiologic data of lymphoid neoplasm in Korea. With the IHC results of 131 patients sequentially selected, top three presumptive diagnoses for each case were made and compared with the original diagnoses. After the review of the data, 124 out of 131 were used for final analysis. As a result, the presumptive diagnoses were concordant with the original diagnoses in 118 cases (93.7%). The major reason of discordant cases was that the similarity of the IHC profile between two or three different neoplasms. The expert supporting system algorithm presented in this study is in its elementary stage and need more optimization using more advanced technology such as deep-learning with data of real cases, especially in differentiating T-cell lymphomas. Although it needs more refinement, it may be used to aid pathological decision making in future. A further application to determine IHC antibodies for a certain subset of differential diagnoses might be possible in near future.

Keywords: database, expert supporting system, immunohistochemistry, probabilistic decision tree

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Authors: Louk Aourelien Andrianos, Edward Dommen, Athena Peralta

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Greed, as epitomized by overconsumption of natural resources, is at the root of ecological destruction and unsustainability of modern societies. Presently economies rely on unrestricted structural greed which fuels unlimited economic growth, overconsumption, and individualistic competitive behavior. Structural greed undermines the life support system on earth and threatens ecological integrity, social justice and peace. The World Council of Churches (WCC) has developed a program on ecological and economic justice (EEJ) with the aim to promote an economy of life where the economy is embedded in society and society in ecology. This paper aims at analyzing and assessing the economy of life (EcoLife) by offering an empirical tool to measure and monitor the root causes and effects of unsustainability resulting from human greed on global, national, institutional and individual levels. This holistic approach is based on the integrity of ecology and economy in a society founded on justice. The paper will discuss critical questions such as ‘what is an economy of life’ and ‘how to measure and control it from the effect of greed’. A model called GLIMS, which stands for Greed Lines and Indices Measurement System is used to clarify the concept of greed and help measuring the economy of life index by fuzzy logic reasoning. The inputs of the model are from statistical indicators of natural resources consumption, financial realities, economic performance, social welfare and ethical and political facts. The outputs are concrete measures of three primary indices of ecological, economic and socio-political greed (ECOL-GI, ECON-GI, SOCI-GI) and one overall multidimensional economy of life index (EcoLife-I). EcoLife measurement aims to build awareness of an economy life and to address the effects of greed in systemic and structural aspects. It is a tool for ethical diagnosis and policy making.

Keywords: greed line, sustainability indicators, fuzzy logic, eco-justice, World Council of Churches (WCC)

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Authors: Styliani Soulioti, Helen Fiddler

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The aim of this study was to investigate the approaches used by physiotherapists in the education of patients with chronic low back pain (cLBP) and the rationale that underpins their choice of approach. Therapeutic patient education (TPE) is considered to be an important aspect of modern physiotherapy practice, as it helps patients achieve better self-management and a better understanding of their problem. Previous studies have explored this subject, but the reasoning behind the choices physiotherapists make as educators has not been widely explored, thus making it difficult to understand areas that could be addressed in order to improve the application of TPE.A qualitative study design, guided by a constructivist epistemology was used in this research project. Semi-structured interviews were used to collect data from 7 physiotherapists. Inductive coding and thematic analysis were used, which allowed key themes to emerge. Data analysis revealed two overarching themes: 1) patient-centred versus therapist-centred educational approaches, and 2) behaviourist versus constructivist educational approaches. Physiotherapists appear to use a patient-centred-approach when they explore patients’ beliefs about cLBP and treatment expectations. However, treatment planning and goal-setting were guided by a therapist-centred approach, as physiotherapists appear to take on the role of the instructor/expert, whereas patients were viewed as students. Using a constructivist approach, physiotherapists aimed to provide guidance to patients by combining their professional knowledge with the patients’ individual knowledge, to help the patient better understand their problem, reflect upon it and find a possible solution. However, educating patients about scientific facts concerning cLBP followed a behaviourist approach, as an instructor/student relationship was observed and the learning content was predetermined and transmitted in a one-way manner. The results of this study suggest that a lack of consistency appears to exist in the educational approaches used by physiotherapists. Although patient-centeredness and constructivism appear to be the aims set by physiotherapists in order to optimise the education they provide, a student-teacher relationship appears to dominate when it comes to goal-setting and delivering scientific information.

Keywords: chronic low back pain, educational approaches, health education, patient education

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Authors: Bar Shapira-Youngster, Sima Amram-Vaknin, Yuliya Lipshits-Braziler

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The study examined how 811 Israelis experienced and coped with the COVID-19 lockdown. Stress, uncertainty, and loss of control were reported as common emotional experiences. Two main difficulties were reported: Loneliness and health and emotional concerns. Frequent explanations for the virus's emergence were: scientific or faith reasoning. The most prevalent coping strategies were distraction activities and acceptance. Reducing the use of maladaptive coping strategies has important implications for mental health outcomes. Objectives: COVID-19 has been recognized as a collective, continuous traumatic stressor. The present study examined how individuals experienced, perceived, and coped with this traumatic event during the lockdown in Israel in April 2020. Method: 811 Israelis (71.3% were women; mean age 43.7, SD=13.3)completed an online semi-structured questionnaire consisting two sections: In the first section, participants were asked to report background information. In the second section, they were asked to answer 8 open-ended questions about their experience, perception, and coping with the covid-19 lockdown. Participation was voluntary, and anonymity was assured, they were not offered compensation of any kind. The data were subjected to qualitative content analysis that seeks to classify the participants` answers into an effective number of categories that represent similar meanings. Our content analysis of participants’ answers extended far beyond simple word counts; our objective was to try to identify recurrent categories that characterized participants’ responses to each question. We sought to ensure that the categories regarding the different questions are as mutually exclusive and exhaustive as possible. To ensure robust analysis, the data were initially analyzed by the first author, and a second opinion was then sought from research colleagues. Contribution: The present research expands our knowledge of individuals' experiences, perceptions, and coping mechanisms with continuous traumatic events. Reducing the use of maladaptive coping strategies has important implications for mental health outcomes.

Keywords: Covid-19, emotional distress, coping, continuous traumatic event

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Authors: Per Blomqvist

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This study is part of a larger research project on creativity and writing cultures in upper secondary schools in Sweden, with the purpose of exploring how formative assessment practices can be developed to better support students' writing of subject-specific texts. The purpose of the study is to shed light on how writing has changed over time in the subjects of Social Studies and Swedish, especially regarding changes in the formative assessment practice in relation to students opportunities to take part in creative writing processes that can develop their subject specific-writing. Theoretically, the study is based on concepts and models concerning creativity, writing instructions and formative assessment, especially regarding scaffolding in relation to the development of students' subject-specific writing. The empirical data consists of video recordings of teacher groups' conversations from five upper secondary schools in Sweden, compromising a total of twenty teachers. The conversations were conducted as so-called collective remembering interviews, a method to stimulate the participants' memory through social interaction, and focused on addressing issues on how writing assessment has changed over time. Topic analysis was used to analyze the conversations in order to identify common descriptions and expressions among the teachers in each group. The result highlights two different assessment practices that are described as giving students different opportunities to take part in creative writing processes to develop their writing of subject-specific texts. One of the assessment practices is characterized by teachers focusing on explaining to the students what the grading criteria mean and showing sample texts that correspond to a certain grade. The teachers describe that this assessment practice has led to a formalized, instrumental and product-oriented writing culture that has negative consequences for the student's development of their subject-specific writing, which often lacks independent reasoning, own conclusions and understanding of concepts. The other assessment practice is characterized by students examining text qualities and discussing a variety of sample texts to understand what different texts require. These teachers describe the assessment practice as an exploratory work that leads to more creative writing processes where the students gradually deepen their understanding of subject-specific texts and develop their writing.

Keywords: teaching for creativity, writing processes, formative assessment, subject-specific writing

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Authors: Samaneh Poormohammadi, Farid Golkar, Vahideh Khatibi Sarabi

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Climate change and consecutive droughts have increased the importance of using rainwater harvesting methods. One of the methods of rainwater harvesting and, in other words, the management of atmospheric water resources is the use of weather modification technologies. Weather modification (also known as weather control) is the act of intentionally manipulating or altering the weather. The most common form of weather modification is cloud seeding, which increases rain or snow, usually for the purpose of increasing the local water supply. Cloud seeding operations in Iran have been married since 1999 in central Iran with the aim of harvesting rainwater and reducing the effects of drought. In this research, we analyze the results of cloud seeding operations in the Simindashtplain in northern Iran. Rainwater harvesting with the help of cloud seeding technology has been evaluated through its effects on surface water and underground water. For this purpose, two different methods have been used to estimate runoff. The first method is the US Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number method. Another method, known as the reasoning method, has also been used. In order to determine the infiltration rate of underground water, the balance reports of the comprehensive water plan of the country have been used. In this regard, the study areas located in the target area of each province have been extracted by drawing maps of the influence coefficients of each area in the GIS software. It should be mentioned that the infiltration coefficients were taken from the balance sheet reports of the country's comprehensive water plan. Then, based on the area of each study area, the weighted average of the infiltration coefficient of the study areas located in the target area of each province is considered as the infiltration coefficient of that province. Results show that the amount of water extracted from the rain with the help of cloud seeding projects in Simindasht is as follows: an increase in runoff 63.9 million cubic meters (with SCS equation) or 51.2 million cubic meters (with logical equation) and an increase in ground water resources: 40.5 million cubic meters.

Keywords: rainwater harvesting, ground water, atmospheric water resources, weather modification, cloud seeding

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Authors: Fatemeh Jannesarvatan, Ghazaal Parastooei, Jimmy frerejan, Saedeh Mokhtari, Peter Van Rosmalen

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Medical and dental education increasingly emphasizes the acquisition, integration, and coordination of complex knowledge, skills, and attitudes that can be applied in practical situations. Instructional design approaches have focused on using real-life tasks in order to facilitate complex learning in both real and simulated environments. The Four component instructional design (4C/ID) model has become a useful guideline for designing instructional materials that improve learning transfer, especially in health profession education. The objective of this study was to apply the 4C/ID model in the creation of virtual patients (VPs) that dental students can use to practice their clinical management and clinical reasoning skills. The study first explored the context and concept of complication factors and common errors for novices and how they can affect the design of a virtual patient program. The study then selected key dental information and considered the content needs of dental students. The design of virtual patients was based on the 4C/ID model's fundamental principles, which included: Designing learning tasks that reflect real patient scenarios and applying different levels of task complexity to challenge students to apply their knowledge and skills in different contexts. Creating varied learning materials that support students during the VP program and are closely integrated with the learning tasks and students' curricula. Cognitive feedback was provided at different levels of the program. Providing procedural information where students followed a step-by-step process from history taking to writing a comprehensive treatment plan. Four virtual patients were designed using the 4C/ID model's principles, and an experimental design was used to test the effectiveness of the principles in achieving the intended educational outcomes. The 4C/ID model provides an effective framework for designing engaging and successful virtual patients that support the transfer of knowledge and skills for dental students. However, there are some challenges and pitfalls that instructional designers should take into account when developing these educational tools.

Keywords: 4C/ID model, virtual patients, education, dental, instructional design

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Authors: Mohaammad Ahmadpanah, Amineh Akhondi, Mohammad Haghighi, Ali Ghaleiha, Leila Jahangard, Elham Salari

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Background: Working memory includes the capability to keep and manipulate information in a short period of time. This capability is the basis of complicated judgments and has been attended to as the specific and constant character of individuals. Children with attention deficit and hyperactivity are among the people suffering from deficiency in the active memory, and this deficiency has been attributed to the problem of frontal lobe. This study utilizes a new approach with suitable tasks and methods for training active memory and assessment of the effects of the trainings. Participants: The children participating in this study were of 7-15 year age, who were diagnosed by the psychiatrist and psychologist as hyperactive and attention deficit based on DSM-IV criteria. The intervention group was consisted of 8 boys and 6 girls with the average age of 11 years and standard deviation of 2, and the control group was consisted of 2 girls and 5 boys with an average age of 11.4 and standard deviation of 3. Three children in the test group and two in the control group were under medicinal therapy. Results: Working memory training meaningfully improved the performance in not-trained areas as visual-spatial working memory as well as the performance in Raven progressive tests which are a perfect example of non-verbal, complicated reasoning tasks. In addition, motional activities – measured based on the number of head movements during computerized measuring program – was meaningfully reduced in the medication group. The results of the second test showed that training similar exercise to teenagers and adults results in the improvement of cognition functions, as in hyperactive people. Discussion: The results of this study showed that the performance of working memory is improved through training, and these trainings are extended and generalized in other areas of cognition functions not receiving any training. Trainings resulted in the improvement of performance in the tasks related to prefrontal. They had also a positive and meaningful impact on the moving activities of hyperactive children.

Keywords: attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, working memory, non-medical treatment, children

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Authors: Scott Andersen

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Perhaps simply and rather unadornedly, consciousness is having multiple goals for action and the continuously adjudication of such goals to implement action, referred to as the Maps of Meaning (MoM) Consciousness Theory. The MoM theory triangulates through three parallel corollaries, action (behavior), mechanism (morphology/pathophysiology), and goals (teleology). (1) An organism’s consciousness contains a fluid, nested goals. These goals are not intentionality, but intersectionality, embodiment meeting the world. i.e., Darwinian inclusive fitness or randomization, then survival of the fittest. These goals form via gradual descent under inclusive fitness, the goals being the abstraction of a ‘match’ between the evolutionary environment and organism. Human consciousness implements the brain efficiency hypothesis, genetics, epigenetics, and experience crystallize efficiencies, not necessitating best or objective but fitness, i.e., perceived efficiency based on one’s adaptive environment. These efficiencies are objectively arbitrary, but determine the operation and level of one’s consciousness, termed extreme thrownness. Since inclusive fitness drives efficiencies in physiologic mechanism, morphology and behavior (action) and originates one’s goals, embodiment is necessarily entangled to human consciousness as its the intersection of mechanism or action (both necessitating embodiment) occurring in the world that determines fitness. Perception is the operant process of consciousness and is the consciousness’ de facto goal adjudication process. Goal operationalization is fundamentally efficiency-based via one’s unique neuronal mapping as a byproduct of genetics, epigenetics, and experience. Perception involves information intake and information discrimination, equally underpinned by efficiencies of inclusive fitness via extreme thrownness. Perception isn’t a ‘frame rate,’ but Bayesian priors of efficiency based on one’s extreme thrownness. Consciousness and human consciousness is a modular (i.e., a scalar level of richness, which builds up like building blocks) and dimensionalized (i.e., cognitive abilities become possibilities as emergent phenomena at various modularities, like stratified factors in factor analysis). The meta dimensions of human consciousness seemingly include intelligence quotient, personality (five-factor model), richness of perception intake, and richness of perception discrimination, among other potentialities. Future consciousness research should utilize factor analysis to parse modularities and dimensions of human consciousness and animal models.

Keywords: consciousness, perception, prospection, embodiment

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Authors: Md. Khayrul Bashar, Md. Saiful Islam, Kimiko Yamashita, Yano Midori

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Despite having some progress in human authentication, conventional biometrics (e.g., facial features, fingerprints, retinal scans, gait, voice patterns) are not robust against falsification because they are neither confidential nor secret to an individual. As a non-invasive tool, electrocardiogram (ECG) has recently shown a great potential in human recognition due to its unique rhythms characterizing the variability of human heart structures (chest geometry, sizes, and positions). Moreover, ECG has a real-time vitality characteristic that signifies the live signs, which ensure legitimate individual to be identified. However, the detection accuracy of the current ECG-based methods is not sufficient due to a high variability of the individual’s heartbeats at a different instance of time. These variations may occur due to muscle flexure, the change of mental or emotional states, and the change of sensor positions or long-term baseline shift during the recording of ECG signal. In this study, a new method is proposed for human identification, which is based on the extraction of the local roughness of ECG heartbeat signals. First ECG signal is preprocessed using a second order band-pass Butterworth filter having cut-off frequencies of 0.00025 and 0.04. A number of local binary patterns are then extracted by applying a moving neighborhood window along the ECG signal. At each instant of the ECG signal, the pattern is formed by comparing the ECG intensities at neighboring time points with the central intensity in the moving window. Then, binary weights are multiplied with the pattern to come up with the local roughness description of the signal. Finally, histograms are constructed that describe the heartbeat signals of individual subjects in the database. One advantage of the proposed feature is that it does not depend on the accuracy of detecting QRS complex, unlike the conventional methods. Supervised recognition methods are then designed using minimum distance to mean and Bayesian classifiers to identify authentic human subjects. An experiment with sixty (60) ECG signals from sixty adult subjects from National Metrology Institute of Germany (NMIG) - PTB database, showed that the proposed new method is promising compared to a conventional interval and amplitude feature-based method.

Keywords: human identification, ECG biometrics, local roughness patterns, supervised classification

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Authors: Anita Bela, Marta Juhasz

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Adapting to the always-changing environment comes with complex determinants. The authors are zooming into one aspect only when the current workforce comes with obstacles by being less keen to stay engaged, even short or mid-term, resulting in additional challenges impacting the business performance. Seeing these occurring in practice made the researchers eager to gain a better understanding of the reasons behind. The paper aims to provide an overview of the theoretical background and research methods planned for the different stages of the research. The theoretical part takes the leadership behaviors under lens while the focus is on finding ways to attract and retain those who prefer working under more flexible employment conditions (e.g. contractor, contingent worker, etc.). These are considered as the organizational values and along with the power of people management are having their engaging relevance. The organizational culture (visible or invisible level) is clearly the mirror of the set of shared values guiding all members of the companies towards acceptable behavior. The applied research method, inductive reasoning was selected since the focus and questions raised in this research are results of specific observations made on the employees (various employment types) and leaders of start-ups and corporates. By comparing the similarities and differences, the researchers are hoping to prove the readiness and agility of the start-up culture for the desired leadership behaviours of the current and future workforce against the corporate culture. While exploring the preferences and engaging factors of the 21st-century workforce the data gathering would happen through website analysis – using ATLAS.ti qualitative software – followed by interview sessions where demographics will be collected and preferred leadership behaviors - using the Critical Incident Technique. Moreover, a short engagement survey will be administered to understand the linkage between the organizational culture type and engagement level. To conclude, after gaining theoretical understanding, we will zoom back to the employees to reveal the behaviors to be followed to achieve engagement in an environment where nothing is stable and where the companies always must keep their agile eyes and reactions vivid.

Keywords: leadership behaviours, organizational culture, qualitative analysis, workforce engagement

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Authors: Risheka Suthantirakumar, Eilish Pearson, Jacqueline Woodman

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Background: Previous research has found a variety of rates and reasons for choosing medically unindicated elective repeat cesarean section (ERCS). Understanding the frequency and reasoning of ERCS, especially when unwarranted, could help healthcare professionals better tailor their advice and service. Therefore, our study conducted meta-analyses and qualitative analyses to identify the reasons and rates worldwide for choosing this procedure over the trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC), also referred to in published literature as vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC). Methods: We conducted a systematic review of published literature available on PubMed, EMBASE, and science.gov and conducted a blinded peer review process to assess eligibility. Search terms were created in collaboration with experts in the field. An inclusion and exclusion criteria were established prior to reviewing the articles. Included studies were limited to those published in English due to author constraints, although no international boundaries were used in the search. No time limit for the search was used in order to portray changes over time. Results: Our qualitative analyses found five consistent themes across international studies, which were socioeconomic and cultural differences, previous cesarean experience, perceptions of risk with vaginal birth, patients’ perceptions of future benefits, and medical advice and information. Our meta-analyses found variable rates of ERCS across international borders and within national populations. The average rate across all studies was 44% (CI 95% 36-51). Discussion: The studies included in our qualitative analysis demonstrated similar repetitive themes, which give validity to the findings across the studies included. We consider the rate variation across and within national populations to be partially a result of differing inclusion and eligibility assessment between different studies and argue that a proforma be utilized for future research to be comparable.

Keywords: elective cesarean section, VBAC, TOLAC, maternal choice

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Authors: Ipek Kivanc, Demet Ozgur-Unluakin

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Over the past years, technological innovations and advancements have played an important role in the industrial world. Due to technological improvements, the degree of complexity of the systems has increased. Hence, all systems are getting more uncertain that emerges from increased complexity, resulting in more cost. It is challenging to cope with this situation. So, implementing efficient planning of maintenance activities in such systems are getting more essential. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are powerful tools for stochastic sequential decision problems under uncertainty. Although maintenance optimization in a dynamic environment can be modeled as such a sequential decision problem, POMDPs are not widely used for tackling maintenance problems. However, they can be well-suited frameworks for obtaining optimal maintenance policies. In the classical representation of the POMDP framework, the system is denoted by a single node which has multiple states. The main drawback of this classical approach is that the state space grows exponentially with the number of state variables. On the other side, factored representation of POMDPs enables to simplify the complexity of the states by taking advantage of the factored structure already available in the nature of the problem. The main idea of factored POMDPs is that they can be compactly modeled through dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), which are graphical representations for stochastic processes, by exploiting the structure of this representation. This study aims to demonstrate how maintenance planning of dynamic systems can be modeled with factored POMDPs. An empirical maintenance planning problem of a dynamic system consisting of four partially observable components deteriorating in time is designed. To solve the empirical model, we resort to Symbolic Perseus solver which is one of the state-of-the-art factored POMDP solvers enabling approximate solutions. We generate some more predefined policies based on corrective or proactive maintenance strategies. We execute the policies on the empirical problem for many replications and compare their performances under various scenarios. The results show that the computed policies from the POMDP model are superior to the others. Acknowledgment: This work is supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK) under grant no: 117M587.

Keywords: factored representation, maintenance, multi-component system, partially observable Markov decision processes

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Authors: Mojtaba Eshraghi Arani

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According to the international conventions for the carriage of goods by sea, the consignee is the person who is entitled to take delivery of the cargo from the carrier. Such a person is usually named in the relevant box of the bill of lading unless the latter is issued “To Order” or “To Bearer”. However, there are some cases in which the apparent consignee, as above, was not intended to take delivery of cargo, like the L/C issuing bank or the freight forwarder who are named as consignee only for the purpose of security or acceleration of transit process. In such cases as well as the BL which is issued “To Order”, the so-called “real consignee” can be found out in the “Notify Party” box. The dispute revolves around the choice between apparent consignee and real consignee for being entitled not only to take delivery of the cargo but also to sue the carrier for any damages or loss. While it is a generally accepted rule that only the apparent consignee shall be vested with such rights, some courts like France’s Cour de Cassation have declared that the “Notify Party”, as the real consignee, was entitled to sue the carrier and in some cases, the same court went far beyond and permitted the real consignee to take suit even where he was not mentioned on the BL as a “Notify Party”. The main argument behind such reasoning is that the real consignee is the person who suffered the loss and thus had a legitimate interest in bringing action; of course, the real consignee must prove that he incurred a loss. It is undeniable that the above-mentioned approach is contrary to the position of the international conventions on the express definition of consignee. However, international practice has permitted the use of BL in a different way to meet the business requirements of banks, freight forwarders, etc. Thus, the issue is one of striking a balance between the international conventions on the one hand and existing practices on the other hand. While the latest convention applicable for sea transportation, i.e., the Rotterdam Rules, dealt with the comparable issue of “shipper” and “documentary shipper”, it failed to cope with the matter being discussed. So a new study is required to propose the best solution for amending the current conventions for carriage of goods by sea. A qualitative method with the concept of interpretation of data collection has been used in this article. The source of the data is the analysis of domestic and international regulations and cases. It is argued in this manuscript that the judge is not allowed to recognize any one as real consignee, other than the person who is mentioned in the “Consingee” box unless the BL is issued “To Order” or “To Bearer”. Moreover, the contract of carriage is independent of the sale contract and thus, the consignee must be determined solely based on the facts of the BL itself, like “Notify Party” and not any other contract or document.

Keywords: real consignee, cargo, delivery, to order, notify the party

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Xiaoyuan Chen

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Background: This study aimed to characterize the epidemiological and clinical features of five rare subtypes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to create a competing risk nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival. Methods: This study used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database to analyze the clinicopathological data of 50,218 patients with classic HCC and five rare subtypes (ICD-O-3 Histology Code=8170/3-8175/3) between 2004 and 2018. The annual percent change (APC) was calculated using Joinpoint regression, and a nomogram was developed based on multivariable competing risk survival analyses. The prognostic performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, C-index, calibration curve, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Decision curve analysis was used to assess the clinical value of the models. Results: The incidence of scirrhous carcinoma showed a decreasing trend (APC=-6.8%, P=0.025), while the morbidity of other rare subtypes remained stable from 2004 to 2018. The incidence-based mortality plateau in all subtypes during the period. Clear cell carcinoma was the most common subtype (n=551, 1.1%), followed by fibrolamellar (n=241, 0.5%), scirrhous (n=82, 0.2%), spindle cell (n=61, 0.1%), and pleomorphic (n=17, ~0%) carcinomas. Patients with fibrolamellar carcinoma were younger and more likely to have non-cirrhotic liver and better prognoses. Scirrhous carcinoma shared almost the same macro clinical characteristics and outcomes as classic HCC. Clear cell carcinoma tended to occur in the Asia-Pacific elderly male population, and more than half of them were large HCC (Size>5cm). Sarcomatoid (including spindle cell and pleomorphic) carcinoma was associated with larger tumor size, poorer differentiation, and more dismal prognoses. The pathological subtype, T stage, M stage, surgery, alpha-fetoprotein, and cancer history were identified as independent predictors in patients with rare subtypes. The nomogram showed good calibration, discrimination, and net benefits in clinical practice. Conclusion: The rare subtypes of HCC had distinct clinicopathological features and biological behaviors compared with classic HCC. Our findings could provide a valuable reference for clinicians. The constructed nomogram could accurately predict prognoses, which is beneficial for individualized management.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, pathological subtype, fibrolamellar carcinoma, scirrhous carcinoma, clear cell carcinoma, spindle cell carcinoma, pleomorphic carcinoma

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Authors: Tzu-Ting Hu, Jung-Der Wang, Ming-Yeng Lin, Jin-Luh Chen, Perng-Jy Tsai

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The vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) has been classified as group 1 (human) carcinogen by the IARC. Workers exposed to VCM are known associated with the development of the liver cancer and hence might cause economical and health losses. Particularly, for those work for the petrochemical industry have been seriously concerned in the environmental and occupational health field. Considering assessing workers’ health risks and their resultant economical and health losses requires the establishment of long-term VCM exposure data for any similar exposure group (SEG) of interest, the development of suitable technologies has become an urgent and important issue. In the present study, VCM exposures for petrochemical industry workers were determined firstly based on the database of the 'Workplace Environmental Monitoring Information Systems (WEMIS)' provided by Taiwan OSHA. Considering the existence of miss data, the reconstruction of historical exposure techniques were then used for completing the long-term exposure data for SEGs with routine operations. For SEGs with non-routine operations, exposure modeling techniques, together with their time/activity records, were adopted for determining their long-term exposure concentrations. The Bayesian decision analysis (BDA) was adopted for conducting exposure and health risk assessments for any given SEG in the petrochemical industry. The resultant excessive cancer risk was then used to determine the corresponding loss of quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE). Results show that low average concentrations can be found for SEGs with routine operations (e.g., VCM rectification 0.0973 ppm, polymerization 0.306 ppm, reaction tank 0.33 ppm, VCM recovery 1.4 ppm, control room 0.14 ppm, VCM storage tanks 0.095 ppm and wastewater treatment 0.390 ppm), and the above values were much lower than that of the permissible exposure limit (PEL; 3 ppm) of VCM promulgated in Taiwan. For non-routine workers, though their high exposure concentrations, their low exposure time and frequencies result in low corresponding health risks. Through the consideration of exposure assessment results, health risk assessment results, and QALE results simultaneously, it is concluded that the proposed method was useful for prioritizing SEGs for conducting exposure abatement measurements. Particularly, the obtained QALE results further indicate the importance of reducing workers’ VCM exposures, though their exposures were low as in comparison with the PEL and the acceptable health risk.

Keywords: exposure assessment, health risk assessment, petrochemical industry, quality-adjusted life years, vinyl chloride monomer

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Authors: Nadia Soledad Peralta

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Within the framework of socio-cognitive interaction, argumentation is understood as a psychological process that supports and induces reasoning and learning. Most authors emphasize the great potential of argumentation to negotiate with contradictions and complex decisions. So argumentation is a target for researchers who highlight the importance of social and cognitive processes in learning. In the context of social interaction among university students, different types of arguments are analyzed according to group size (dyads and triads) and the type of task (reading of frequency tables, causal explanation of physical phenomena, the decision regarding moral dilemma situations, and causal explanation of social phenomena). Eighty-nine first-year social sciences students of the National University of Rosario participated. Two groups were formed from the results of a pre-test that ensured the heterogeneity of points of view between participants. Group 1 consisted of 56 participants (performance in dyads, total: 28), and group 2 was formed of 33 participants (performance in triads, total: 11). A quasi-experimental design was performed in which effects of the two variables (group size and type of task) on the argumentation were analyzed. Three types of argumentation are described: authentic dialogical argumentative resolutions, individualistic argumentative resolutions, and non-argumentative resolutions. The results indicate that individualistic arguments prevail in dyads. That is, although people express their own arguments, there is no authentic argumentative interaction. Given that, there are few reciprocal evaluations and counter-arguments in dyads. By contrast, the authentically dialogical argument prevails in triads, showing constant feedback between participants’ points of view. It was observed that, in general, the type of task generates specific types of argumentative interactions. However, it is possible to emphasize that the authentically dialogic arguments predominate in the logical tasks, whereas the individualists or pseudo-dialogical are more frequent in opinion tasks. Nerveless, these relationships between task type and argumentative mode are best clarified in an interactive analysis based on group size. Finally, it is important to stress the value of dialogical argumentation in educational domains. Argumentative function not only allows a metacognitive reflection about their own point of view but also allows people to benefit from exchanging points of view in interactive contexts.

Keywords: sociocognitive interaction, argumentation, university students, size of the grup

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Authors: Alena Kulikova, Tatjana Kanonire

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Intelligence research is one of the oldest fields of psychology. Many factors have made a research on intelligence, defined as reasoning and problem solving [1, 2], a very acute and urgent problem. Thus, it has been repeatedly shown that intelligence is a predictor of academic, professional, and social achievement in adulthood (for example, [3]); Moreover, intelligence predicts these achievements better than any other trait or ability [4]. The individual level, a comprehensive assessment of intelligence is a necessary criterion for the diagnosis of various mental conditions. For example, it is a necessary condition for psychological, medical and pedagogical commissions when deciding on educational needs and the most appropriate educational programs for school children. Assessment of intelligence is crucial in clinical psychodiagnostic and needs high-quality intelligence measurement tools. Therefore, it is not surprising that the development of intelligence tests is an essential part of psychological science and practice. Many modern intelligence tests have a long history and have been used for decades, for example, the Stanford-Binet test or the Wechsler test. However, the vast majority of these tests are based on the classic linear test structure, in which all respondents receive all tasks (see, for example, a critical review by [5]). This understanding of the testing procedure is a legacy of the pre-computer era, in which blank testing was the only diagnostic procedure available [6] and has some significant limitations that affect the reliability of the data obtained [7] and increased time costs. Another problem with measuring IQ is that classical line-structured tests do not fully allow to measure respondent's intellectual progress [8], which is undoubtedly a critical limitation. Advances in modern psychometrics allow for avoiding the limitations of existing tools. However, as in any rapidly developing industry, at the moment, psychometrics does not offer ready-made and straightforward solutions and requires additional research. In our presentation we would like to discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the current approaches to intelligence measurement and highlight “points of growth” for creating a test in accordance with modern psychometrics. Whether it is possible to create the instrument that will use all achievements of modern psychometric and remain valid and practically oriented. What would be the possible limitations for such an instrument? The theoretical framework and study design to create and validate the original Russian comprehensive computer test for measuring the intellectual development in school-age children will be presented.

Keywords: Intelligence, psychometrics, psychological measurement, computerized adaptive testing, multistage testing

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Authors: Rose Mini Agoes Salim, Shahnaz Safitri

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The aim of this study is to test the effectiveness of teaching kindness in preschool children by using several techniques. Kindness is a physical act or emotional support aimed to build or maintain relationships with others. Kindness is known to be essential in the development of moral reasoning to distinguish between the good and bad things. In this study, kindness is operationalized as several acts including helping friends, comforting sad friends, inviting friends to play, protecting others, sharing, saying hello, saying thank you, encouraging others, and apologizing. It is mentioned that kindness is crucial to be developed in preschool children because this is the time the children begin to interact with their social environment through play. Furthermore, preschool children's cognitive development makes them begin to represent the world with words, which then allows them to interact with others. On the other hand, preschool children egocentric thinking makes them still need to learn to consider another person's perspective. In relation to social interaction, preschool children need to be stimulated and assisted by adult to be able to pay attention to other and act with kindness toward them. On teaching kindness to children, the quality of interaction between children and their significant others is the key factor. It is known that preschool children learn about kindness by imitating adults on their two way interaction. Specifically, this study examines two types of teaching techniques that can be done by parents as a way to teach kindness, namely the picture-storybook reading and hand-puppet storytelling. These techniques were examined because both activities are easy to do and both also provide a model of behavior for the child based on the character in the story. To specifically examine those techniques effectiveness in teaching kindness, two studies were conducted. Study I involves 31 children aged 5-6 years old with picture-storybook reading technique, where the intervention is done by reading 8 picture books for 8 days. In study II, hand-puppet storytelling technique is examined to 32 children aged 3-5 years old. The treatments effectiveness are measured using an instrument in the form of nine colored cards that describe the behavior of kindness. Data analysis using Wilcoxon Signed-rank test shows a significant difference on the average score of kindness (p < 0.05) before and after the intervention has been held. For daily observation, a ‘kindness tree’ and observation sheets are used which are filled out by the teacher. Two weeks after interventions, an improvement on all kindness behaviors measured is intact. The same result is also gained from both ‘kindness tree’ and observational sheets.

Keywords: kindness, moral teaching, storytelling, hand puppet

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Authors: Venere Ferraro, Silvia Ferraris

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We live in a world pervaded by new advanced technologies that have been changing the way we live and experience the surrounded. Besides, new technologies enable product innovation at different levels. Nevertheless, innovation does not lie just in the technological development and in its hard aspects but also in the meaningful use of it for the final user. In order to generate innovative products, a new perspective is needed: The shift from an instrument-oriented view of the technology towards a broader view that includes aspects like aesthetics, acceptance, comfort, and sociability. In many businesses, the user experience of the product is considered the key battlefield to achieve product innovation. (Holland 2011) The use of new technologies is indeed useless without paying attention to the user experience. This paper presents a workshop activity conducted at Design School of Politecnico di Milano in collaboration with Chiba University and aimed at generating innovative design concepts of high-tech mask. The students were asked to design the user experience of a new mask by exploiting emerging technologies such as wearable sensors and information communication technology (ICT) for a chosen field of application: safety or sport. When it comes to the user experience, the mask is a very challenging design product, because it covers aspects of product interaction and, most important, psychological and cultural aspects related to the impact on the facial expression. Furthermore, since the mask affects the face expression quite a lot, it could be a barrier to hide with, or it could be a mean to enhance user’s communication to others. The main request for the students was to take on a user-centered approach: To go beyond the instrumental aspects of product use and usability and focus on the user experience by shaping the technology in a desirable and meaningful way for the user reasoning on the metaphorical and cultural level of the product. During the one-week workshop students were asked to face the design process through (i) the research phase: an in-deep analysis of the user and field of application (safety or sport) to set design spaces (brief) and user scenario; (ii) the idea generation, (iii) the idea development. This text will shortly go through the meaning of the product innovation, the use and application of wearable technologies and will then focus on the user experience design in contrast with the technology-driven approach in the field of product innovation. Finally authors will describe the workshop activity and the concepts developed by the students stressing the important role of the user experience design in new product development.

Keywords: product innovation, user experience, technological exploitation, wearable technologies

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Authors: Hesam Gholami

Abstract:

Elevated suspended sediment loads in riverine systems resulting from accelerated erosion due to human activities are a serious threat to the sustainable management of watersheds and ecosystem services therein worldwide. Therefore, mitigation of deleterious sediment effects as a distributed or non-point pollution source in the catchments requires reliable provenance information. Sediment tracing or sediment fingerprinting, as a combined process consisting of sampling, laboratory measurements, different statistical tests, and the application of mixing or unmixing models, is a useful technique for discriminating the sources of sediments. From 1996 to the present, different aspects of this technique, such as grouping the sources (spatial and individual sources), discriminating the potential sources by different statistical techniques, and modification of mixing and unmixing models, have been introduced and modified by many researchers worldwide, and have been applied to identify the provenance of fine materials in agricultural, rural, mountainous, and coastal catchments, and in large catchments with numerous lakes and reservoirs. In the last two decades, efforts exploring the uncertainties associated with sediment fingerprinting results have attracted increasing attention. The frameworks used to quantify the uncertainty associated with fingerprinting estimates can be divided into three groups comprising Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian approaches and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). Given the above background, the primary goal of this study was to apply geochemical fingerprinting within the GLUE framework in the estimation of sub-basin spatial sediment source contributions in the arid Mehran River catchment in southern Iran, which drains into the Persian Gulf. The accuracy of GLUE predictions generated using four different sets of statistical tests for discriminating three sub-basin spatial sources was evaluated using 10 virtual sediments (VS) samples with known source contributions using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Based on the results, the contributions modeled by GLUE for the western, central and eastern sub-basins are 1-42% (overall mean 20%), 0.5-30% (overall mean 12%) and 55-84% (overall mean 68%), respectively. According to the mean absolute fit (MAF; ≥ 95% for all target sediment samples) and goodness-of-fit (GOF; ≥ 99% for all samples), our suggested modeling approach is an accurate technique to quantify the source of sediments in the catchments. Overall, the estimated source proportions can help watershed engineers plan the targeting of conservation programs for soil and water resources.

Keywords: sediment source tracing, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation, virtual sediment mixtures, Iran

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