Search results for: mountain-plain transition zones
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 2707

Search results for: mountain-plain transition zones

2227 Geographical Information System and Multi-Criteria Based Approach to Locate Suitable Sites for Industries to Minimize Agriculture Land Use Changes in Bangladesh

Authors: Nazia Muhsin, Tofael Ahamed, Ryozo Noguchi, Tomohiro Takigawa

Abstract:

One of the most challenging issues to achieve sustainable development on food security is land use changes. The crisis of lands for agricultural production mainly arises from the unplanned transformation of agricultural lands to infrastructure development i.e. urbanization and industrialization. Land use without sustainability assessment could have impact on the food security and environmental protections. Bangladesh, as the densely populated country with limited arable lands is now facing challenges to meet sustainable food security. Agricultural lands are using for economic growth by establishing industries. The industries are spreading from urban areas to the suburban areas and using the agricultural lands. To minimize the agricultural land losses for unplanned industrialization, compact economic zones should be find out in a scientific approach. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to find out suitable sites for industrial growth by land suitability analysis (LSA) by using Geographical Information System (GIS) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The goal of the study was to emphases both agricultural lands and industries for sustainable development in land use. The study also attempted to analysis the agricultural land use changes in a suburban area by statistical data of agricultural lands and primary data of the existing industries of the study place. The criteria were selected as proximity to major roads, and proximity to local roads, distant to rivers, waterbodies, settlements, flood-flow zones, agricultural lands for the LSA. The spatial dataset for the criteria were collected from the respective departments of Bangladesh. In addition, the elevation spatial dataset were used from the SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) data source. The criteria were further analyzed with factors and constraints in ArcGIS®. Expert’s opinion were applied for weighting the criteria according to the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), a multi-criteria technique. The decision rule was set by using ‘weighted overlay’ tool to aggregate the factors and constraints with the weights of the criteria. The LSA found only 5% of land was most suitable for industrial sites and few compact lands for industrial zones. The developed LSA are expected to help policy makers of land use and urban developers to ensure the sustainability of land uses and agricultural production.

Keywords: AHP (analytical hierarchy process), GIS (geographic information system), LSA (land suitability analysis), MCA (multi-criteria analysis)

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2226 Laser Paint Stripping on Large Zones on AA 2024 Based Substrates

Authors: Selen Unaldi, Emmanuel Richaud, Matthieu Gervais, Laurent Berthe

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Aircrafts are painted with several layers to guarantee their protection from external attacks. For aluminum AA 2024-T3 (metallic structural part of the plane), a protective primer is applied to ensure its corrosion protection. On top of this layer, the top coat is applied for aesthetic aspects. During the lifetime of an aircraft, top coat stripping has an essential role which should be operated as an average of every four years. However, since conventional stripping processes create hazardous disposals and need long hours of labor work, alternative methods have been investigated. Amongst them, laser stripping appears as one of the most promising techniques not only because of the reasons mentioned above but also its controllable and monitorable aspects. The application of a laser beam from the coated side provides stripping, but the depth of the process should be well controlled in order to prevent damage to a substrate and the anticorrosion primer. Apart from that, thermal effects should be taken into account on the painted layers. As an alternative, we worked on developing a process that includes the usage of shock wave propagation to create the stripping via mechanical effects with the application of the beam from the substrate side (back face) of the samples. Laser stripping was applied on thickness-specified samples with a thickness deviation of 10-20%. First, the stripping threshold is determined as a function of power density which is the first flight off of the top coats. After obtaining threshold values, the same power densities were applied to specimens to create large stripping zones with a spot overlap of 10-40%. Layer characteristics were determined on specimens in terms of physicochemical properties and thickness range both before and after laser stripping in order to validate the substrate material health and coating properties. The substrate health is monitored by measuring the roughness of the laser-impacted zones and free surface energy tests (both before and after laser stripping). Also, Hugoniot Elastic Limit (HEL) is determined from VISAR diagnostic on AA 2024-T3 substrates (for the back face surface deformations). In addition, the coating properties are investigated as a function of adhesion levels and anticorrosion properties (neutral salt spray test). The influence of polyurethane top-coat thickness is studied in order to verify the laser stripping process window for industrial aircraft applications.

Keywords: aircraft coatings, laser stripping, laser adhesion tests, epoxy, polyurethane

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2225 An Interactive Voice Response Storytelling Model for Learning Entrepreneurial Mindsets in Media Dark Zones

Authors: Vineesh Amin, Ananya Agrawal

Abstract:

In a prolonged period of uncertainty and disruptions in the pre-said normal order, non-cognitive skills, especially entrepreneurial mindsets, have become a pillar that can reform the educational models to inform the economy. Dreamverse Learning Lab’s IVR-based storytelling program -Call-a-Kahaani- is an evolving experiment with an aim to kindle entrepreneurial mindsets in the remotest locations of India in an accessible and engaging manner. At the heart of this experiment is the belief that at every phase in our life’s story, we have a choice which brings us closer to achieving our true potential. This interactive program is thus designed using real-time storytelling principles to empower learners, ages 24 and below, to make choices and take decisions as they become more self-aware, practice grit, try new things through stories, guided activities, and interactions, simply over a phone call. This research paper highlights the framework behind an ongoing scalable, data-oriented, low-tech program to kindle entrepreneurial mindsets in media dark zones supported by iterative design and prototyping to reach 13700+ unique learners who made 59000+ calls for 183900+min listening duration to listen to content pieces of around 3 to 4 min, with the last monitored (March 2022) record of 34% serious listenership, within one and a half years of its inception. The paper provides an in-depth account of the technical development, content creation, learning, and assessment frameworks, as well as mobilization models which have been leveraged to build this end-to-end system.

Keywords: non-cognitive skills, entrepreneurial mindsets, speech interface, remote learning, storytelling

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2224 A Low Order Thermal Envelope Model for Heat Transfer Characteristics of Low-Rise Residential Buildings

Authors: Nadish Anand, Richard D. Gould

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A simplistic model is introduced for determining the thermal characteristics of a Low-rise Residential (LRR) building and then predicts the energy usage by its Heating Ventilation & Air Conditioning (HVAC) system according to changes in weather conditions which are reflected in the Ambient Temperature (Outside Air Temperature). The LRR buildings are treated as a simple lump for solving the heat transfer problem and the model is derived using the lumped capacitance model of transient conduction heat transfer from bodies. Since most contemporary HVAC systems have a thermostat control which will have an offset temperature and user defined set point temperatures which define when the HVAC system will switch on and off. The aim is to predict without any error the Body Temperature (i.e. the Inside Air Temperature) which will estimate the switching on and off of the HVAC system. To validate the mathematical model derived from lumped capacitance we have used EnergyPlus simulation engine, which simulates Buildings with considerable accuracy. We have predicted through the low order model the Inside Air Temperature of a single house kept in three different climate zones (Detroit, Raleigh & Austin) and different orientations for summer and winter seasons. The prediction error from the model for the same day as that of model parameter calculation has showed an error of < 10% in winter for almost all the orientations and climate zones. Whereas the prediction error is only <10% for all the orientations in the summer season for climate zone at higher latitudes (Raleigh & Detroit). Possible factors responsible for the large variations are also noted in the work, paving way for future research.

Keywords: building energy, energy consumption, energy+, HVAC, low order model, lumped capacitance

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2223 Prevalence and Intensity of Soil Transmitted Helminth Infections among the School Children in the State of Uttar Pradesh, India

Authors: Prasanta Saini, Junaid Jibran Jawed, Subrata Majumdar

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Infections caused by soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are the major problem in all the nations of the world. The major focus of STH research is to study the prevalence of three major helminths, such as Ascaris, Trituris and hookworm. Here we are reporting the prevalence and intensity of the STH in the school children of the state of Uttar Pradesh, India. The aim of the study is to assess the prevalence and risk factors of STH infection among the school children, aged between 5-10 years in 27 districts randomly selected districts with covering nine agro-climatic zones of Uttar Pradesh, India. For this cross-sectional survey, we have selected the populations of government primary school going children in Uttar Pradesh. The sampling was performed in the nine different agro-climatic zones. Every individual of the study populations filled their daily information in the questioner's form and then the sample was collected and processed by kato-katz methods by following the guidelines of WHO. In this method, the sampling was performed in total of 6421 populations. A total of 6,421 children from 130 schools were surveyed. Infection with any soil-transmitted helminths was detected among 4,578 children with an overall prevalence of 75.6% (95% CI: 65.3-83.6). Among the 6421 population, the prevalence of Ascaris is 69.6% (95% CL 57.97-79.11), hookworm is 22.7% (95%CL 19.3-26.3) and Trichuris sp is 4.6% (95% CL 0.8-21.6), so the predicted prevalence map indicates that the STH infection was hyperendemic in this state. The findings of our survey in 130 schools covering 9 agro-climatic with one or more soil transmitted helminths. Majority of STH infections were of light intensity. STH infection was hyper-endemic in entire state, except three zones in western Uttar Pradesh. High prevalence ( > 75%) in all age groups also indicate little impact of existing deworming initiatives, including those among pre-school aged children. WHO recommends annual treatment in areas where STH prevalence is between 20% and 50%, and, a bi-annual treatment in areas with prevalence rates of over 50%. In view of high prevalence of STH infection in Uttar Pradesh, it is strongly recommended to initiate a deworming programme for school children in the state. Although our survey was among primary school children, high prevalence among children aged 4-6 years also indicates the need to strengthen the existing deworming programs for pre-school children. Extending the benefits of deworming to pre-school children through deworming in Anganwadi schools would further reduce to decrease the load of infection in community. As a long-term solution for control STH infection, it is also necessary to improve the sanitation levels in the area, as majority of the houses did not have latrines and most of the children were defecating in open fields, a factor that was found to be significantly associated with STH infection.

Keywords: prevalence, school going children, soil transmitted helminthes, Uttar Pradesh-India

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2222 Microscopic Analysis of Interfacial Transition Zone of Cementitious Composites Prepared by Various Mixing Procedures

Authors: Josef Fládr, Jiří Němeček, Veronika Koudelková, Petr Bílý

Abstract:

Mechanical parameters of cementitious composites differ quite significantly based on the composition of cement matrix. They are also influenced by mixing times and procedure. The research presented in this paper was aimed at identification of differences in microstructure of normal strength (NSC) and differently mixed high strength (HSC) cementitious composites. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) investigation together with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX) phase analysis of NSC and HSC samples was conducted. Evaluation of interfacial transition zone (ITZ) between the aggregate and cement matrix was performed. Volume share, thickness, porosity and composition of ITZ were studied. In case of HSC, samples obtained by several different mixing procedures were compared in order to find the most suitable procedure. In case of NSC, ITZ was identified around 40-50% of aggregate grains and its thickness typically ranged between 10 and 40 µm. Higher porosity and lower share of clinker was observed in this area as a result of increased water-to-cement ratio (w/c) and the lack of fine particles improving the grading curve of the aggregate. Typical ITZ with lower content of Ca was observed only in one HSC sample, where it was developed around less than 15% of aggregate grains. The typical thickness of ITZ in this sample was similar to ITZ in NSC (between 5 and 40 µm). In the remaining four HSC samples, no ITZ was observed. In general, the share of ITZ in HSC samples was found to be significantly smaller than in NSC samples. As ITZ is the weakest part of the material, this result explains to large extent the improved mechanical properties of HSC compared to NSC. Based on the comparison of characteristics of ITZ in HSC samples prepared by different mixing procedures, the most suitable mixing procedure from the point of view of properties of ITZ was identified.

Keywords: electron diffraction spectroscopy, high strength concrete, interfacial transition zone, normal strength concrete, scanning electron microscopy

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2221 Identification Algorithm of Critical Interface, Modelling Perils on Critical Infrastructure Subjects

Authors: Jiří. J. Urbánek, Hana Malachová, Josef Krahulec, Jitka Johanidisová

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The paper deals with crisis situations investigation and modelling within the organizations of critical infrastructure. Every crisis situation has an origin in the emergency event occurrence in the organizations of energetic critical infrastructure especially. Here, the emergency events can be both the expected events, then crisis scenarios can be pre-prepared by pertinent organizational crisis management authorities towards their coping or the unexpected event (Black Swan effect) – without pre-prepared scenario, but it needs operational coping of crisis situations as well. The forms, characteristics, behaviour and utilization of crisis scenarios have various qualities, depending on real critical infrastructure organization prevention and training processes. An aim is always better organizational security and continuity obtainment. This paper objective is to find and investigate critical/ crisis zones and functions in critical situations models of critical infrastructure organization. The DYVELOP (Dynamic Vector Logistics of Processes) method is able to identify problematic critical zones and functions, displaying critical interfaces among actors of crisis situations on the DYVELOP maps named Blazons. Firstly, for realization of this ability is necessary to derive and create identification algorithm of critical interfaces. The locations of critical interfaces are the flags of crisis situation in real organization of critical infrastructure. Conclusive, the model of critical interface will be displayed at real organization of Czech energetic crisis infrastructure subject in Black Out peril environment. The Blazons need live power Point presentation for better comprehension of this paper mission.

Keywords: algorithm, crisis, DYVELOP, infrastructure

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2220 Modelling Water Usage for Farming

Authors: Ozgu Turgut

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Water scarcity is a problem for many regions which requires immediate action, and solutions cannot be postponed for a long time. It is known that farming consumes a significant portion of usable water. Although in recent years, the efforts to make the transition to dripping or spring watering systems instead of using surface watering started to pay off. It is also known that this transition is not necessarily translated into an increase in the capacity dedicated to other water consumption channels such as city water or power usage. In order to control and allocate the water resource more purposefully, new watering systems have to be used with monitoring abilities that can limit the usage capacity for each farm. In this study, a decision support model which relies on a bi-objective stochastic linear optimization is proposed, which takes crop yield and price volatility into account. The model generates annual planting plans as well as water usage limits for each farmer in the region while taking the total value (i.e., profit) of the overall harvest. The mathematical model is solved using the L-shaped method optimally. The decision support model can be especially useful for regional administrations to plan next year's planting and water incomes and expenses. That is why not only a single optimum but also a set of representative solutions from the Pareto set is generated with the proposed approach.

Keywords: decision support, farming, water, tactical planning, optimization, stochastic, pareto

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2219 The Influence of Salt Body of J. Ech Cheid on the Maturity History of the Cenomanian: Turonian Source Rock

Authors: Mohamed Malek Khenissi, Mohamed Montassar Ben Slama, Anis Belhaj Mohamed, Moncef Saidi

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Northern Tunisia is well known by its different and complex structural and geological zones that have been the result of a geodynamic history that extends from the early Mesozoic era to the actual period. One of these zones is the salt province, where the Halokinesis process is manifested by a number of NE/SW salt structures such as Jebel Ech-Cheid which represents masses of materials characterized by a high plasticity and low density. The salt masses extrusions that have been developed due to an extension that started from the late Triassic to late Cretaceous. The evolution of salt bodies within sedimentary basins have not only contributed to modify the architecture of the basin, but it also has certain geochemical effects which touch mainly source rocks that surround it. It has been demonstrated that the presence of salt structures within sedimentary basins can influence its temperature distribution and thermal history. Moreover, it has been creating heat flux anomalies that may affect the maturity of organic matter and the timing of hydrocarbon generation. Field samples of the Bahloul source rock (Cenomanan-Tunonian) were collected from different sights from all around Ech Cheid salt structure and evaluated using Rock-eval pyrolysis and GC/MS techniques in order to assess the degree of maturity evolution and the heat flux anomalies in the different zones analyze. The Total organic Carbon (TOC) values range between 1 to 9% and the (Tmax) ranges between 424 and 445°C, also the distribution of the source rock biomarkers both saturated and aromatic changes in a regular fashions with increasing maturity and this are shown in the chromatography results such as Ts/(Ts+Tm) ratios, 22S/(22S+22R) values for C31 homohopanes, ββ/(ββ+αα)20R and 20S/(20S+20R) ratios for C29 steranes which gives a consistent maturity indications and assessment of the field samples. These analyses are carried to interpret the maturity evolution and the heat flux around Ech Cheid salt structure through the geological history. These analyses also aim to demonstrate that the salt structure can have a direct effect on the geothermal gradient of the basin and on the maturity of the Bahloul Formation source rock. The organic matter has reached different stages of thermal maturity, but delineate a general increasing maturity trend. Our study confirms that the J. Ech Cheid salt body have on the first hand: a huge influence on the local distribution of anoxic depocentre at least within Cenomanian-Turonian time. In the second hand, the thermal anomaly near the salt mass has affected the maturity of Bahloul Formation.

Keywords: Bahloul formation, depocentre, GC/MS, rock-eval

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2218 Calculation of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and the Spectral Signature of Coffee Crops: Benefits of Image Filtering on Mixed Crops

Authors: Catalina Albornoz, Giacomo Barbieri

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Crop monitoring has shown to reduce vulnerability to spreading plagues and pathologies in crops. Remote sensing with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has made crop monitoring more precise, cost-efficient and accessible. Nowadays, remote monitoring involves calculating maps of vegetation indices by using different software that takes either Truecolor (RGB) or multispectral images as an input. These maps are then used to segment the crop into management zones. Finally, knowing the spectral signature of a crop (the reflected radiation as a function of wavelength) can be used as an input for decision-making and crop characterization. The calculation of vegetation indices using software such as Pix4D has high precision for monoculture plantations. However, this paper shows that using this software on mixed crops may lead to errors resulting in an incorrect segmentation of the field. Within this work, authors propose to filter all the elements different from the main crop before the calculation of vegetation indices and the spectral signature. A filter based on the Sobel method for border detection is used for filtering a coffee crop. Results show that segmentation into management zones changes with respect to the traditional situation in which a filter is not applied. In particular, it is shown how the values of the spectral signature change in up to 17% per spectral band. Future work will quantify the benefits of filtering through the comparison between in situ measurements and the calculated vegetation indices obtained through remote sensing.

Keywords: coffee, filtering, mixed crop, precision agriculture, remote sensing, spectral signature

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2217 A Comprehensive Review of Electronic Health Records Implementation in Healthcare

Authors: Lateefat Amao, Misagh Faezipour

Abstract:

Implementing electronic health records (EHR) in healthcare is a pivotal transition aimed at digitizing and optimizing patient health information management. The expectations associated with this transition are high, even towards other health information systems (HIS) and health technology. This multifaceted process involves careful planning and execution to improve the quality and efficiency of patient care, especially as healthcare technology is a sensitive niche. Key considerations include a thorough needs assessment, judicious vendor selection, robust infrastructure development, and training and adaptation of healthcare professionals. Comprehensive training programs, data migration from legacy systems and models, interoperability, as well as security and regulatory compliance are imperative for healthcare staff to navigate EHR systems adeptly. The purpose of this work is to offer a comprehensive review of the literature on EHR implementation. It explores the impact of this health technology on health practices, highlights challenges and barriers to its successful utility, and offers practical strategies that can impact its success in healthcare. This paper provides a thorough review of studies on the adoption of EHRs, emphasizing the wide range of experiences and results connected to EHR use in the medical field, especially across different types of healthcare organizations.

Keywords: healthcare, electronic health records, EHR implementation, patient care, interoperability

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2216 The Role of Txnrd2 Deficiency in Epithelial-to-Mesenchymal-Transition (EMT) and Tumor Formation in Pancreatic Cancer

Authors: Chao Wu

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Thioredoxin reductase 2 is a mitochondrial enzyme that belongs to the cellular defense against oxidative stress. We deleted mitochondrial Txnrd2 in a KrasG12D-driven pancreatic tumor model. Despite an initial increase in precursor lesions, tumor incidence decreased significantly. We isolated cancer cell lines from these genetically engineered mice and observed an impaired proliferation and colony formation. Reactive Oxygen Species, as determined by DCF fluorescence, were increased. We detected a higher mitochondrial copy number in Txnrd2-deficient cells (KTP). However, measurement of mitochondrial bioenergetics showed no impairment of mitochondrial function and comparable O₂-consumption and extracellular acidification rates. In addition, the mitochondrial complex composition was affected in Txnrd2 deleted cell lines. To gain better insight into the role of Txnrd2, we deleted Txnrd2 in clones from parental KrasG12D cell lines using Crispr/Cas9 technology. The deletion was confirmed by western blot and activity assay. Interestingly, and in line with previous RNA expression analysis, we saw changes in EMT markers in Txnrd2 deleted cell lines and control cell lines. This might help us explain the reduced tumor incidence in KrasG12D; Txnrd2∆panc mice.

Keywords: PDAC, TXNRD2, epithelial-to-mesenchymal-transition, ROS

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2215 Survey of Hawke's Bay Tourism Based Businesses: Tsunami Understanding and Preparation

Authors: V. A. Ritchie

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The loss of life and livelihood experienced after the magnitude 9.3 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami on 26 December 2004 and magnitude 9 earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan on 11 March 2011, has raised global awareness and brought tsunami phenomenology, nomenclature, and representation into sharp focus. At the same time, travel and tourism continue to increase, contributing around 1 in 11 jobs worldwide. This increase in tourism is especially true for coastal zones, placing pressure on decision-makers to downplay tsunami risks and at the same time provide adequate tsunami warning so that holidaymakers will feel confident enough to visit places of high tsunami risk. This study investigates how well tsunami preparedness messages are getting through for tourist-based businesses in Hawke’s Bay New Zealand, a region of frequent seismic activity and a high probability of experiencing a nearshore tsunami. The aim of this study is to investigate whether tourists based businesses are well informed about tsunamis, how well they understand that information and to what extent their clients are included in awareness raising and evacuation processes. In high-risk tsunami zones, such as Hawke’s Bay, tourism based businesses face competitive tension between short term business profitability and longer term reputational issues related to preventable loss of life from natural hazards, such as tsunamis. This study will address ways to accommodate culturally and linguistically relevant tourist awareness measures without discouraging tourists or being too costly to implement.

Keywords: tsunami risk and response, travel and tourism, business preparedness, cross cultural knowledge transfer

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2214 Synthesis of 2-Aminoisocoumarinoselenazoles via Transition Metal-Free Alkylation and Ru(II)-Catalyzed [4+2] Alkyne Annulation

Authors: Sunil Kumar, Sandip Dhole, Deepak Salunke, Chung-ming Sun

Abstract:

Heterocycles bearing nitrogen, oxygen, and selenium are present in innumerable biologically active compounds. For instance, coumarin containing dicoumarol acts as naturally occurring anticoagulant. 2-Acylamido selenazole works as Store-Operated Calcium (SOC) channel regulator. Therefore, due to biologically significance of selenazole and coumarin and our quest to develop efficient methodologies for the synthesis of complex heterocycles, the trisubstituted angular isocoumarinoselenazole synthesis was proposed and achieved by starting from nitrobenzoic acid derivative, available commercially. Synthetic procedure involves three steps: i) the construction of 2-aminobenzoselenazoles, ii) their regioselective N-alkylation at position-2 and iii) alkyne insertion via Ru catalyzed C-H activation. Transition metal free synthesis of benzoselenazoles was successfully brought about by the addition/elimination reaction via intramolecular C-Se bond formation. In the next step, N-alkylation of selenazole furnished two regioisomers. Both the isomers exhibited different reactivity towards [4+2] alkyne annulation reaction. The fusion of α-pyrone ring on the benzo[1,3-d]selenazole skeleton was achieved via Ru(II)-catalyzed C-H activation and alkyne insertion. As evident from mechanism, the selenazole 'N' plays an important role for the experiential selectivity.

Keywords: alkylation, alkyne insertion, coumarin, selenazole

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2213 Effects of Effort and Water Quality on Productivity (CPUE) of Hampal (Hampala macrolepidota) Resources in Jatiluhur Dam, West Java

Authors: Ririn Marinasari, S. Pi

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Hampal (Hampala macrolepidota) is one of Citarum river indigenous fishes that still find in Jatiluhur dam. IUCN at 2013 said that hampal listed on redlist species category, this species was rare in Jatiluhur dam. This species more and more decreasing because change of habitats characteristic such as water quality and fishing effort. This study aims to determine and identify the influence of fishing effort and the quality of water on the productivity of fish resources hampal (Hampala macrolepidota) in Jatiluhur. The study was conducted from October to November 2013. Zones of research include lacustrine zone, transition and Riverin. Hampal fish productivity value computed by Hampal’s CPUE values. The results showed that fish MSY hampal obtained from surplus production model of Schaefer is equal to 0.2045 tons / quarterly. In the years 2011-2012 have occurred over fishing in 2013 while still under fishing. Total catches have exceeded the MSY during the year 2011 and the third quarterly of 2012 tons of fish that exceed 0.2045 hampal. The rate of utilization of fish resources hampal is equal to 80% of MSY or equal to the allowable catch (Total Allowable Catch) for fish in Jatiluhur hampal based Schaefer surplus production theory. Fishing effort, water quality parameters such as DO, turbidity and negatively correlated sulfide as H2S, while the temperature and pH positively correlated to productivity or unit catches fish hampal efforts in quarterly time series in the period 2011-2013. Shows that the higher fishing effort, DO, turbidity and sulfide in H2S and diminishing the temperature and pH of the productivity decreases. Variables that affect the productivity of fishing hampal only H2S only factor beta coefficient -0.834 which indicates a negative effect. It can be caused by H2S levels are toxic and have already exceeded the quality standard, while for other water quality parameters are still below the maximum standards allowed in the waters. Result of the study can be a reference of fishing regulation for hampal conservation in Jatiluhur dam.

Keywords: effort, hampal, productivity, water quality

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2212 Multi-Stakeholder Involvement in Construction and Challenges of Building Information Modeling Implementation

Authors: Zeynep Yazicioglu

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Project development is a complex process where many stakeholders work together. Employers and main contractors are the base stakeholders, whereas designers, engineers, sub-contractors, suppliers, supervisors, and consultants are other stakeholders. A combination of the complexity of the building process with a large number of stakeholders often leads to time and cost overruns and irregular resource utilization. Failure to comply with the work schedule and inefficient use of resources in the construction processes indicate that it is necessary to accelerate production and increase productivity. The development of computer software called Building Information Modeling, abbreviated as BIM, is a major technological breakthrough in this area. The use of BIM enables architectural, structural, mechanical, and electrical projects to be drawn in coordination. BIM is a tool that should be considered by every stakeholder with the opportunities it offers, such as minimizing construction errors, reducing construction time, forecasting, and determination of the final construction cost. It is a process spreading over the years, enabling all stakeholders associated with the project and construction to use it. The main goal of this paper is to explore the problems associated with the adoption of BIM in multi-stakeholder projects. The paper is a conceptual study, summarizing the author’s practical experience with design offices and construction firms working with BIM. In the transition period to BIM, three of the challenges will be examined in this paper: 1. The compatibility of supplier companies with BIM, 2. The need for two-dimensional drawings, 3. Contractual issues related to BIM. The paper reviews the literature on BIM usage and reviews the challenges in the transition stage to BIM. Even on an international scale, the supplier that can work in harmony with BIM is not very common, which means that BIM's transition is continuing. In parallel, employers, local approval authorities, and material suppliers still need a 2-D drawing. In the BIM environment, different stakeholders can work on the same project simultaneously, giving rise to design ownership issues. Practical applications and problems encountered are also discussed, providing a number of suggestions for the future.

Keywords: BIM opportunities, collaboration, contract issues about BIM, stakeholders of project

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2211 Comparison of Physical and Chemical Properties of Micro-Silica and Locally Produced Metakaolin and Effect on the Properties of Concrete

Authors: S. U. Khan, T. Ayub, N. Shafiq

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The properties of locally produced metakaolin (MK) as cement replacing material and the comparison of reactivity with commercially available micro-silica have been investigated. Compressive strength, splitting tensile strength, and load-deflection behaviour under bending are the properties that have been studied. The amorphous phase of MK with micro-silica was compared through X-ray diffraction (XRD) pattern. Further, interfacial transition zone of concrete with micro-silica and MK was observed through Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM). Three mixes of concrete were prepared. One of the mix is without cement replacement as control mix, and the remaining two mixes are 10% cement replacement with micro-silica and MK. It has been found that MK, due to its irregular structure and amorphous phase, has high reactivity with portlandite in concrete. The compressive strength at early age is higher with MK as compared to micro-silica. MK concrete showed higher splitting tensile strength and higher load carrying capacity as compared to control and micro-silica concrete at all ages respectively.

Keywords: metakaolin, compressive strength, splitting tensile strength, load deflection, interfacial transition zone

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2210 Litho-Structural Variations and Gold Mineralization around Wonaka Schist Belt, North West Nigeria

Authors: Umar Sambo Umar, Ahmad Isah Haruna, Abubakar Sadik Maigari, Muhammad Bello Abubakar

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Schist belts in Nigeria occur prominently west of longitude 80 E and sporadic to the east, they are upper Proterozioc low-medium grade deformed metasediments and metavolcanics that were intruded by Pan-African granitoids. The Wonaka schist belt, though reportedly distinctive in composition and metamorphism, is the least understood; the host for primary gold were not defined, structures which may control primary enrichment have not been delineated. The aim of this work is to determine the relationship between litho-structures and the gold around Wonaka schist belt through geological field mapping, petrographic studies and structural data analysis via ArcGis 10.2, Surfer 11.0 and Stereopro 2.0. The results show that the major rock types are mica schist and migmatites, muscovites detected during microstructural analysis suggests low-grade metamorphism in the metapelites. The shear zones identified were trending North Northeast – South Southwest (NNE-SSW), fractures trend mostly Northeast-Southwest (NE-SW) perpendicular to planes of gneissic foliations, these conform to the late Pan-African deformational episode. Pegmatite lodes, net self-cross cutting quartz veins as well as the quartz stringers hosted by both migmatites and schist are delineated as targets for primary gold mineralization, while major confluences of the streams serve as zones for secondary (placer) gold targets since the streams are dendritic and intermittent.

Keywords: gold mineralization, Nigeria, migmatites, Wonaka schist belt

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2209 Controlling the Release of Cyt C and L- Dopa from pNIPAM-AAc Nanogel Based Systems

Authors: Sulalit Bandyopadhyay, Muhammad Awais Ashfaq Alvi, Anuvansh Sharma, Wilhelm R. Glomm

Abstract:

Release of drugs from nanogels and nanogel-based systems can occur under the influence of external stimuli like temperature, pH, magnetic fields and so on. pNIPAm-AAc nanogels respond to the combined action of both temperature and pH, the former being mostly determined by hydrophilic-to-hydrophobic transitions above the volume phase transition temperature (VPTT), while the latter is controlled by the degree of protonation of the carboxylic acid groups. These nanogels based systems are promising candidates in the field of drug delivery. Combining nanogels with magneto-plasmonic nanoparticles (NPs) introduce imaging and targeting modalities along with stimuli-response in one hybrid system, thereby incorporating multifunctionality. Fe@Au core-shell NPs possess optical signature in the visible spectrum owing to localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) of the Au shell, and superparamagnetic properties stemming from the Fe core. Although there exist several synthesis methods to control the size and physico-chemical properties of pNIPAm-AAc nanogels, yet, there is no comprehensive study that highlights the dependence of incorporation of one or more layers of NPs to these nanogels. In addition, effective determination of volume phase transition temperature (VPTT) of the nanogels is a challenge which complicates their uses in biological applications. Here, we have modified the swelling-collapse properties of pNIPAm-AAc nanogels, by combining with Fe@Au NPs using different solution based methods. The hydrophilic-hydrophobic transition of the nanogels above the VPTT has been confirmed to be reversible. Further, an analytical method has been developed to deduce the average VPTT which is found to be 37.3°C for the nanogels and 39.3°C for nanogel coated Fe@Au NPs. An opposite swelling –collapse behaviour is observed for the latter where the Fe@Au NPs act as bridge molecules pulling together the gelling units. Thereafter, Cyt C, a model protein drug and L-Dopa, a drug used in the clinical treatment of Parkinson’s disease were loaded separately into the nanogels and nanogel coated Fe@Au NPs, using a modified breathing-in mechanism. This gave high loading and encapsulation efficiencies (L Dopa: ~9% and 70µg/mg of nanogels, Cyt C: ~30% and 10µg/mg of nanogels respectively for both the drugs. The release kinetics of L-Dopa, monitored using UV-vis spectrophotometry was observed to be rather slow (over several hours) with highest release happening under a combination of high temperature (above VPTT) and acidic conditions. However, the release of L-Dopa from nanogel coated Fe@Au NPs was the fastest, accounting for release of almost 87% of the initially loaded drug in ~30 hours. The chemical structure of the drug, drug incorporation method, location of the drug and presence of Fe@Au NPs largely alter the drug release mechanism and the kinetics of these nanogels and Fe@Au NPs coated with nanogels.

Keywords: controlled release, nanogels, volume phase transition temperature, l-dopa

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2208 Contribution of Foraminifers in Biostratigraphy and Paleoecology Interpretations of the Basal Eocene from the Phosphatic Sra Ouertaine Basin, in the Southern Tethys(Tunisia)

Authors: Oum Elkhir Mahmoudi, Nebiha Ben Haj Ali

Abstract:

Micropaleontological, sedimentological and statistical studies were carried out on the late Paleocene-early Eocene succession of Sra Ouertaine and Dyr El Kef in Northern open phosphatic Basin of Tunisia. Based on the abundance and stratigraphic distribution of planktic foraminiferal species, five planktic zones have been recognized from the base to the top of the phosphatic layers. The El Acarinina sibaiyaensis Zone, the E2 Pseudohastigerina wilcoxensis Zone, the E3 Morozovella marginodentata Zone, the E4 Morozovella formosa Zones and the E5 Morozovella subbotinae Zone. The placement of Paleocene-Eocene boundary (PETM) is just below the base of the phosphatic interval. The ETM-2 event may be detectable in the analyzed biotic record of Sra Ouertaine. Based on benthic assemblages, abundances, cluster and multivariate statistical analyses, two biofacies were recognized for each section. The recognized ecozones are typical of warm and shallow water inner neritic setting (dominance of epifaunal fauna Anomalinoides, Dentalina and Cibicidoides associated with Frondicularia phosphatica, Trochamminoides globigeriniformis and Eponides elevatus). The paleoenvironment is eutrophic (presence of several bolivinitids and verneuilinids). For the Dyr El Kef section and P5 and E2 of Sra Ouertaine section, our records indicate that paleoenvironment is influenced by coastal upwelling without oxygen-deficiency, the paleodepth is estimated to be around 50 m. The paleoecosystem is diversified and balanced with a general tendency to stressed condition. While the upper part of Sra Ouertaine section is more eutrophic, influenced by coastal upwelling with oxygen-deficiency, the paleodepth is estimated to be less than 50 m and the ecosystem is unsettled.

Keywords: Tunisia, Sra ouertaine Dyr el kef, early Eocene, foraminifera, chronostratigraphy, paleoecology, paleoenvironment

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2207 Environmental Controls on the Distribution of Intertidal Foraminifers in Sabkha Al-Kharrar, Saudi Arabia: Implications for Sea-Level Changes

Authors: Talha A. Al-Dubai, Rashad A. Bantan, Ramadan H. Abu-Zied, Brian G. Jones, Aaid G. Al-Zubieri

Abstract:

Contemporary foraminiferal samples sediments were collected from the intertidal sabkha of Al-Kharrar Lagoon, Saudi Arabia, to study the vertical distribution of Foraminifera and, based on a modern training set, their potential to develop a predictor of former sea-level changes in the area. Based on hierarchical cluster analysis, the intertidal sabkha is divided into three vertical zones (A, B & C) represented by three foraminiferal assemblages, where agglutinated species occupied Zone A and calcareous species occupied the other two zones. In Zone A (high intertidal), Agglutinella compressa, Clavulina angularis and C. multicamerata are dominant species with a minor presence of Peneroplis planatus, Coscinospira hemprichii, Sorites orbiculus, Quinqueloculina lamarckiana, Q. seminula, Ammonia convexa and A. tepida. In contrast, in Zone B (middle intertidal) the most abundant species are P. planatus, C. hemprichii, S. orbiculus, Q. lamarckiana, Q. seminula and Q. laevigata, while Zone C (low intertidal) is characterised by C. hemprichii, Q. costata, S. orbiculus, P. planatus, A. convexa, A. tepida, Spiroloculina communis and S. costigera. A transfer function for sea-level reconstruction was developed using a modern dataset of 75 contemporary sediment samples and 99 species collected from several transects across the sabkha. The model provided an error of 0.12m, suggesting that intertidal foraminifers are able to predict the past sea-level changes with high precision in Al-Kharrar Lagoon, and thus the future prediction of those changes in the area.

Keywords: Lagoonal foraminifers, intertidal sabkha, vertical zonation, transfer function, sea level

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2206 Into Composer’s Mind: Understanding the Process of Translating Emotions into Music

Authors: Sanam Preet Singh

Abstract:

Music in comparison to any other art form is more reactive and alive. It has the capacity to directly interact with the listener's mind and generate an emotional response. All the major research conducted in the area majorly relied on the listener’s perspective to draw an understanding of music and its effects. There is a very small number of studies which focused on the source from which music originates, the music composers. This study aims to understand the process of how music composers understand and perceive emotions and how they translate them into music, in simpler terms how music composers encode their compositions to express determining emotions. One-to-one in-depth semi structured interviews were conducted, with 8 individuals both male and female, who were professional to intermediate-level music composers and Thematic analysis was conducted to derive the themes. The analysis showed that there is no single process on which music composers rely, rather there are combinations of multiple micro processes, which constitute the understanding and translation of emotions into music. In terms of perception of emotions, the role of processes such as Rumination, mood influence and escapism was discovered in the analysis. Unique themes about the understanding of their top down and bottom up perceptions were also discovered. Further analysis also revealed the role of imagination and emotional trigger explaining how music composers make sense of emotions. The translation process of emotions revealed the role of articulation and instrumentalization, in encoding or translating emotions to a composition. Further, applications of the trial and error method, nature influences and flow in the translation process are also discussed. In the end themes such as parallels between musical patterns and emotions, comfort zones and relatability also emerged during the analysis.

Keywords: comfort zones, escapism, flow, rumination

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2205 Perception of Hazards and Risks in Road Utilization as Space for Social Ceremonies in Indigenous Residential Area of Ogbomoso, Nigeria

Authors: Okanlawon Simon Ayorinde, Odunjo Oluronke Omolola, Fadamiro Joseph Akinlabi, Adedibu Afolabi Adebgite

Abstract:

A road is a path established over land, especially prepared way between places for the use of pedestrian, riders, and vehicles: a hard surface built for vehicles to travel on. The social, economic and health importance of roads in any community and nation cannot be underestimated. Roads provide access to properties and they also provide mobility which is ability to transport goods and services from one place to another. In the residential zones of many indigenous cities in Nigeria, roads are usually blocked for social ceremonies. Road blocked for ceremonies as used in this study are a temporary barrier across a road, used to stop or hinder traffic from passing through to the other side. Social ceremonies that could warrant road blockage include marriage, child naming, funeral, celebration of life’s achievement, birthday anniversary etc. These activities are likely to generate environmental hazards and their attendant risks. The assessment of these hazards and risks in residential zones of indigenous cities in Nigeria becomes imperative. The study is focused on Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria. The town has two local government councils namely Ogbomoso North and Ogbomoso South. Urban tracts that are easy to identify are political wards in the absence of land use segregation, houses numbering and street naming. The wards that had residential having a minimum of 60% of their land use components were surveyed and fifteen out of twenty wards identified in the town were surveyed. The study utilized primary data collected through questionnaire administration The three major road categories (Trunk A-Federal; Trunk B- State; Trunk C-Local) were identified and trunk C-Local roads were purposively selected being the concern of this study because they are the ones often blocked for social activities. The major stakeholders interviewed and the respective sampling methods are residents (random and systematic), social ceremony organizers (purposive), government officials (purposive) and road users namely commercial motorists and commercial motor cyclists (random and incidental). Data analysis was mainly descriptive. Two indices to measure respondents’ perception were developed. These are ‘Hazard Severity Index’ (HSI) and ‘Relative Awareness Index’ (RAI).Thereafter, policy implications and recommendations were provided.

Keywords: road, residential zones, indigenous cities, blocked, social ceremonies

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2204 Accounting for Rice Productivity Heterogeneity in Ghana: The Two-Step Stochastic Metafrontier Approach

Authors: Franklin Nantui Mabe, Samuel A. Donkoh, Seidu Al-Hassan

Abstract:

Rice yields among agro-ecological zones are heterogeneous. Farmers, researchers and policy makers are making frantic efforts to bridge rice yield gaps between agro-ecological zones through the promotion of improved agricultural technologies (IATs). Farmers are also modifying these IATs and blending them with indigenous farming practices (IFPs) to form farmer innovation systems (FISs). Also, different metafrontier models have been used in estimating productivity performances and their drivers. This study used the two-step stochastic metafrontier model to estimate the productivity performances of rice farmers and their determining factors in GSZ, FSTZ and CSZ. The study used both primary and secondary data. Farmers in CSZ are the most technically efficient. Technical inefficiencies of farmers are negatively influenced by age, sex, household size, education years, extension visits, contract farming, access to improved seeds, access to irrigation, high rainfall amount, less lodging of rice, and well-coordinated and synergized adoption of technologies. Albeit farmers in CSZ are doing well in terms of rice yield, they still have the highest potential of increasing rice yield since they had the lowest TGR. It is recommended that government through the ministry of food and agriculture, development partners and individual private companies promote the adoption of IATs as well as educate farmers on how to coordinate and synergize the adoption of the whole package. Contract farming concept and agricultural extension intensification should be vigorously pursued to the latter.

Keywords: efficiency, farmer innovation systems, improved agricultural technologies, two-step stochastic metafrontier approach

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2203 Effective Governance through Mobile Phones: Cases Supporting the Introduction and Implementation

Authors: Mohd Mudasir Shafi, Zafrul Hasan, Talat Saleem

Abstract:

Information and communication Technology (ICT) services have been defined as a route to good governance. Introduction of ICT into Governance has given rise to the idea of e-governance which helps in enhancing transparency, generating accountability and responsiveness in the system in order to provide faster and quality service to the citizen. Advancement in ICT has provided governments all over the world to speed up the delivery of information and services to citizens and businesses and increase their participation in governance. There has been varying degree of success over the past decade into providing services to the citizens using internet and different web services. These e-government initiatives have been extensively researched. Our research is aimed at the transition from electronic government to mobile government (m-government) initiatives implementing the mobile services and concerned to understand the major factors which will aid to adoption and distribution of these services. There must be some amount of research done in the integration process between e-government and m-government. There must also be enough amount of investigation done all the factors that could affect the transition process. Such factors differ between different places and the advancement in information and technology available there. In this paper, we have discussed why mobile communication system can be used for effective e-governance and the areas where m-governance can be implemented. The paper will examine some of the reasons as well as the main opportunities for improving effective governance through mobile phones.

Keywords: e-governance, mobile phones, information technology, m-government

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2202 Vacancy-Driven Magnetism of GdMnO₃

Authors: Matúš Mihalik, Martin Vavra, Kornel Csach, Marián Mihalik

Abstract:

GdMnO₃ belongs to orthorhombically distorted, GdFeO₃-type family of perovskite compounds. These compounds are naturally vacant and the amount of vacancies depend on the sample preparation conditions. Our GdMnO₃ samples were prepared by float zone method and the vacancies were controlled using an air, Ar and O₂ preparation atmosphere. The highest amount of vacancies was found for sample prepared in Ar atmosphere, while the sample prepared in O₂ was observed to be almost vacancy-free. The magnetic measurements indicate that the preparation atmosphere has no impact on Néel temperature (TN ~ 42 K), however, it has strong impact on the incommensurate antiferromagnetic (IC) to canted A-type weak ferromagnetic (AWF) phase transition at T1: T1 = 23.4 K; 18 K and 6.7 K for samples prepared in Ar; air and O₂ atmosphere; respectively. The hysteresis loop measured at 2 K has a butterfly-type shape with the remnant magnetization (Mr) of 0.6 µB/f.u. for Ar and air sample, while Mr = 0.3 µB/f.u. for O₂ sample. The shape of the hysteresis loop depends on the preparation atmosphere in magnetic fields up to 1.5 T, but is independent for higher magnetic fields. The coercive field of less than 0.06 T and the maximum magnetic moment of 6 µB/f.u. at magnetic field µ0H = 7 T do not depend on the preparation atmosphere. All these findings indicate that only AWF phase of GdMnO₃ compound is directly affected by the vacancies in the system, while IC phase and the field induced ferroelectric phase are not affected.

Keywords: magnetism, perovskites, sample preparation, magnetic phase transition

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2201 Geophysical Methods of Mapping Groundwater Aquifer System: Perspectives and Inferences From Lisana Area, Western Margin of the Central Main Ethiopian Rift

Authors: Esubalew Yehualaw Melaku, Tigistu Haile Eritro

Abstract:

In this study, two basic geophysical methods are applied for mapping the groundwater aquifer system in the Lisana area along the Guder River, northeast of Hosanna town, near the western margin of the Central Main Ethiopian Rift. The main target of the study is to map the potential aquifer zone and investigate the groundwater potential for current and future development of the resource in the Gode area. The geophysical methods employed in this study include, Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) and magnetic survey techniques. Electrical sounding was used to examine and map the depth to the potential aquifer zone of the groundwater and its distribution over the area. On the other hand, a magnetic survey was used to delineate contact between lithologic units and geological structures. The 2D magnetic modeling and the geoelectric sections are used for the identification of weak zones, which control the groundwater flow and storage system. The geophysical survey comprises of twelve VES readings collected by using a Schlumberger array along six profile lines and more than four hundred (400) magnetic readings at about 10m station intervals along four profiles and 20m along three random profiles. The study result revealed that the potential aquifer in the area is obtained at a depth range from 45m to 92m. This is the response of the highly weathered/ fractured ignimbrite and pumice layer with sandy soil, which is the main water-bearing horizon. Overall, in the neighborhood of four VES points, VES- 2, VES- 3, VES-10, and VES-11, shows good water-bearing zones in the study area.

Keywords: vertical electrical sounding, magnetic survey, aquifer, groundwater potential

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2200 Ultrasonic Spectroscopy of Polymer Based PVDF-TrFE Composites with CNT Fillers

Authors: J. Belovickis, V. Samulionis, J. Banys, M. V. Silibin, A. V. Solnyshkin, A. V. Sysa

Abstract:

Ferroelectric polymers exhibit good flexibility, processability and low cost of production. Doping of ferroelectric polymers with nanofillers may modify its dielectric, elastic or piezoelectric properties. Carbon nanotubes are one of the ingredients that can improve the mechanical properties of polymer based composites. In this work, we report on both the ultrasonic and the dielectric properties of the copolymer polyvinylidene fluoride/tetrafluoroethylene (P(VDF-TrFE)) of the composition 70/30 mol% with various concentrations of carbon nanotubes (CNT). Experimental study of ultrasonic wave attenuation and velocity in these composites has been performed over wide temperature range (100 K – 410 K) using an ultrasonic automatic pulse-echo tecnique. The temperature dependences of ultrasonic velocity and attenuation showed anomalies attributed to the glass transition and paraelectric-ferroelectric phase transition. Our investigations showed mechanical losses to be dependent on the volume fraction of the CNTs within the composites. The existence of broad hysteresis of the ultrasonic wave attenuation and velocity within the nanocomposites is presented between cooling and heating cycles. By the means of dielectric spectroscopy, it is shown that the dielectric properties may be tuned by varying the volume fraction of the CNT fillers.

Keywords: carbon nanotubes, polymer composites, PVDF-TrFE, ultrasonic spectroscopy

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2199 A Markov Model for the Elderly Disability Transition and Related Factors in China

Authors: Huimin Liu, Li Xiang, Yue Liu, Jing Wang

Abstract:

Background: As one of typical case for the developing countries who are stepping into the aging times globally, more and more older people in China might face the problem of which they could not maintain normal life due to the functional disability. While the government take efforts to build long-term care system and further carry out related policies for the core concept, there is still lack of strong evidence to evaluating the profile of disability states in the elderly population and its transition rate. It has been proved that disability is a dynamic condition of the person rather than irreversible so it means possible to intervene timely on them who might be in a risk of severe disability. Objective: The aim of this study was to depict the picture of the disability transferring status of the older people in China, and then find out individual characteristics that change the state of disability to provide theory basis for disability prevention and early intervention among elderly people. Methods: Data for this study came from the 2011 baseline survey and the 2013 follow-up survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Normal ADL function, 1~2 ADLs disability,3 or above ADLs disability and death were defined from state 1 to state 4. Multi-state Markov model was applied and the four-state homogeneous model with discrete states and discrete times from two visits follow-up data was constructed to explore factors for various progressive stages. We modeled the effect of explanatory variables on the rates of transition by using a proportional intensities model with covariate, such as gender. Result: In the total sample, state 2 constituent ratio is nearly about 17.0%, while state 3 proportion is blow the former, accounting for 8.5%. Moreover, ADL disability statistics difference is not obvious between two years. About half of the state 2 in 2011 improved to become normal in 2013 even though they get elder. However, state 3 transferred into the proportion of death increased obviously, closed to the proportion back to state 2 or normal functions. From the estimated intensities, we see the older people are eleven times as likely to develop at 1~2 ADLs disability than dying. After disability onset (state 2), progression to state 3 is 30% more likely than recovery. Once in state 3, a mean of 0.76 years is spent before death or recovery. In this model, a typical person in state 2 has a probability of 0.5 of disability-free one year from now while the moderate disabled or above has a probability of 0.14 being dead. Conclusion: On the long-term care cost considerations, preventive programs for delay the disability progression of the elderly could be adopted based on the current disabled state and main factors of each stage. And in general terms, those focusing elderly individuals who are moderate or above disabled should go first.

Keywords: Markov model, elderly people, disability, transition intensity

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2198 The Heating Prosumer: Optimal Simultaneous Use of Heat-Pumps and Solar Panels

Authors: Youssef El Makhrout, Aude Pommeret, Tunç Durmaz

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This paper analyses the consequences of a heat pump on the optimal behavior of a prosumer. A theoretical microeconomic model is developed for household heating and electricity consumption to analyze the profitability of installing a solar PV system with a heat pump, battery storage, and grid use. The aim is to present the optimal scenario of investment in renewable energy equipment to cover domestic and heating needs. Simulation data of a French house of 170m² in Chambery are used in this paper. The house is divided into 5 zones with 3 heated zones of 89.4 m² occupied by two people. The analysis is based on hourly data for one year, from 00:00 01/01/2021 to 23:00 31/12/2021. Results indicate that without taking the cost of materials and no financial aid, the most profitable scenario for a household is when he owns solar panels, a heat pump, and battery storage. However, with the costs and financial aid of the French government for energy renovation, the net economic surplus change and the profitability during 20 years are important when the household decides to add a heat pump to existing solar panels. In this scenario, the household can realize 35.84% as a surplus change improvement, but this cannot cover all installation costs. The household can get benefits and cover all installation costs after exploiting financial support in the case of adopting a heat pump. The investment in a battery is still not profitable because of its high cost and the lack of financial aid. Some public policy recommendations are proposed, especially for solar panels and battery storage.

Keywords: household’s heating, prosumer, electricity consumption, renewable energy, welfare gain, comfort, solar PV, heat pumps, storage

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