Search results for: comprehensive model

Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

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Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. However, it is difficult to find analytical solution of these complex non-linear equations. Hence, verification of the numerical model should be carried out against field data and numerical predictions. This paper presents the verification of developed finite element model applying for unsteady flow in the open channels. The results of a proposed model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29 km at both sites (15 km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400 km downstream from Sukkur barrage, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for predicting and issuing flood warnings about flood hazardous in advance.

Keywords: finite element method, Preissmann scheme, HEC-RAS, flood forecasting, Indus river

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Authors: Zongjie Wang, Zhizhong Guo

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While the regular optimal power flow model focuses on a single time scan, the optimization of power systems is typically intended for a time duration with respect to a desired objective function. In this paper, a temporal optimal power flow model for a time period is proposed. To reduce the computation burden needed for calculating temporal optimal power flow, a characteristic optimal power flow model is proposed, which employs different characteristic load patterns to represent the objective function and security constraints. A numerical method based on the interior point method is also proposed for solving the characteristic optimal power flow model. Both the temporal optimal power flow model and characteristic optimal power flow model can improve the systems’ desired objective function for the entire time period. Numerical studies are conducted on the IEEE 14 and 118-bus test systems to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed characteristic optimal power flow model.

Keywords: optimal power flow, time period, security, economy

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Authors: Li Donghong, Peng Fuyang, Yang Guanghua, Su Xiaoyan

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Using open source code is a popular method of software development. How to evaluate the quality of software becomes more important. This paper introduces an evaluation model. The model evaluates the quality from four dimensions: technology, production, management, and development. Each dimension includes many indicators. The weight of indicator can be modified according to the purpose of evaluation. The paper also introduces a method of using the model. The evaluating result can provide good advice for evaluating or purchasing the software.

Keywords: evaluation model, software quality, open source code, evaluation indicator

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Authors: A. Amar

Abstract:

The angular distributions of the nuclear systems under consideration have been analyzed in the framework of the optical model (OM), where the real part was taken in the crystal model form. A crystal model (CM) has been applied to deuteron elastically scattered by ⁶,⁷Li and ⁹Be. A crystal model (CM) + distorted-wave Born approximation (DWBA) + dynamic polarization potential (DPP) potential has been applied to deuteron elastically scattered by ⁶,⁷Li and 9Be. Also, a crystal model has been applied to ⁶Li elastically scattered by ¹⁶O and ²⁸Sn in addition to the ⁷Li+⁷Li system and the ¹²C(alpha,⁸Be) ⁸Be reaction. The continuum-discretized coupled-channels (CDCC) method has been applied to the ⁷Li+⁷Li system and agreement between the crystal model and the continuum-discretized coupled-channels (CDCC) method has been observed. In general, the models succeeded in reproducing the differential cross sections at the full angular range and for all the energies under consideration.

Keywords: optical model (OM), crystal model (CM), distorted-wave born approximation (DWBA), dynamic polarization potential (DPP), the continuum-discretized coupled-channels (CDCC) method, and deuteron elastically scattered by ⁶, ⁷Li and ⁹Be

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Authors: Michael W. Markowitz

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A central element of higher education today is the “core” or “general education” curriculum: that configuration of courses that often encompasses the essence of liberal arts education. Ensuring that such offerings reflect the mission and values of the institution is a challenge faced by most college and universities, often more than once. This paper presents an action model of program planning designed to structure the processes of developing, implementing and revising core curricula in a manner consistent with key institutional goals and objectives. Through presentation of a case study from a university in the United States, the elements of needs assessment, stakeholder investment and collaborative compromise are shown as key components of a planning strategy that can produce a general education program that is comprehensive, academically rigorous, assessable and mission consistent. The paper concludes with recommendations for both the implementation and evaluation of such programs in practice.

Keywords: academic assessment, academic program planning, curriculum development, general education reform

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Authors: Beata Jackowska-Zduniak

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We formulate and analyze a mathematical model describing dynamics of cancer growth under the influence of radiation therapy. The effect of this type of therapy is considered as an additional equation of discussed model. Numerical simulations show that delay, which is added to ordinary differential equations and represent time needed for transformation from one type of cells to the other one, affects the behavior of the system. The validation and verification of proposed model is based on medical data. Analytical results are illustrated by numerical examples of the model dynamics. The model is able to reconstruct dynamics of treatment of cancer and may be used to determine the most effective treatment regimen based on the study of the behavior of individual treatment protocols.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, numerical simulation, ordinary differential equations, radiation therapy

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Authors: C. E. Madubueze, S. C. Madubueze, S. Ajama

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Cholera is a disease that is predominately common in developing countries due to poor sanitation and overcrowding population. In this paper, a deterministic model for the dynamics of cholera is developed and control measures such as health educational message, therapeutic treatment, and vaccination are incorporated in the model. The effective reproduction number is computed in terms of the model parameters. The existence and stability of the equilibrium states, disease free and endemic equilibrium states are established and showed to be locally and globally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1 and R0 > 1 respectively. The existence of backward bifurcation of the model is investigated. Furthermore, numerical simulation of the model developed is carried out to show the impact of the control measures and the result indicates that combined control measures will help to reduce the spread of cholera in the population

Keywords: backward bifurcation, cholera, equilibrium, dynamics, stability

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh river

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Authors: Boguslaw Schreyer

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In this paper, a general dynamical model is derived using the Lagrange formalism. The two masses: sprang and unsprang are included in a six-degree of freedom model for a sprung mass. The unsprung mass is included and shown only in a simplified model, although its equations have also been derived by an author. The simplified equations, more suitable for the computer model of robot’s dynamics are also shown.

Keywords: dynamics, mobile, robot, wheeled mobile robots

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Authors: See-Yuan Cheng, Kwang-Yhee Chin, Shuhaimi Mansor

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Rear-roof spoiler is commonly used for improving the aerodynamic performance of road vehicles. This study aims to investigate the effect of yaw angle on the effectiveness of strip-type rear-roof spoiler in providing lower drag and lift coefficients of a hatchback model. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method was used. The numerically obtained results were compared to the experimental data for validation of the CFD method. At increasing yaw angle, both the drag and lift coefficients of the model were to increase. In addition, the effectiveness of spoiler was deteriorated. These unfavorable effects were due to the formation of longitudinal vortices around the side edges of the model that had caused the surface pressure of the model to drop. Furthermore, there were significant crossflow structures developed behind the model at larger yaw angle, which were associated with the drop in the surface pressure of the rear section of the model and cause the drag coefficient to rise.

Keywords: Ahmed model, aerodynamics, spoiler, yaw angle

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Authors: Pui Yong Leo, Normy Maziah Mohd Said

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Change of global economy landscape and business environment has led to companies’ decision to go global and enter international markets. As the companies go beyond the comfort zone (i.e. investing in the home country), it is important to ensure a comprehensive risk assessment is carried out. This paper describes a standardized approach for international investment, ensuring identification of risk, risk appetite, risk rating, risk treatment and mitigation plans for respective international investment proposal. The standardized approach is divided into three (3) stages as follows: Stage 1 – Preliminary Risk profiling; with the objective to gauge exposure to countries and high level risk factors as first level assessment. Stage 2 – Risk Parameters; with the objective to define risk appetite for the international investment from the perspective of likelihood and impact. Stage 3 – Detailed Risk Assessments; with the objectives to assess in detail any triggered elements from Stage 1, and project specific risks. The final output will include the mitigation plans for the identified risks for the total investment. Example will be given in this paper to show how comprehensive risk assessment is carried out for an international investment in power energy sector.

Keywords: international investment, mitigation plans, risk appetite, risk assessment

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Authors: Pitak Keawbunsong, Sathaporn Promwong

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This paper presents an investigation on the efficiency of the optimized Davison path loss model in order to look for a suitable path loss model to design and planning DTTV propagation for small and medium urban areas in southern Thailand. Hadyai City in Songkla Province is chosen as the case study to collect the analytical data on the electric field strength. The optimization is conducted through the least square method while the efficiency index is through the statistical value of relative error (RE). The result of the least square method is the offset and slop of the frequency to be used in the optimized process. The statistical result shows that RE of the old Davidson model is at the least when being compared with the optimized Davison and the Hata models. Thus, the old Davison path loss model is the most accurate that further becomes the most optimized for the plan on the propagation network design.

Keywords: DTTV propagation, path loss model, Davidson model, least square method

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Authors: Wei Lu

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With the development of information technology in China, network consumption is becoming more and more popular. As a special group, college students have a high degree of education and distinct opinions and personalities. In the future, the key groups of network consumption have gradually become the focus groups of network consumption. Studying college students’ online consumption behavior has important theoretical significance and practical value. Based on the Stimulus-Organism-Response (SOR) driving model and the structural equation model, this paper establishes the influencing factors model of College students’ online consumption behavior, evaluates and amends the model by using SPSS and AMOS software, analyses and determines the positive factors of marketing college students’ consumption, and provides an effective basis for guiding and promoting college student consumption.

Keywords: college students, online consumption, stimulate-organism-reaction driving model, structural equation model

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Authors: Dina H. Gabr, Mona A. El Bannan

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With growing worldwide concern for global warming, green finance has become the fuel that pushes the world to act in combating and mitigating climate change. Coupled with adopting the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, Green finance became a vital tool in creating a pathway to sustainable development, as it connects the financial world with environmental and societal benefits. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the concepts and definitions of green finance and the importance of 'green' impact investments today. The core challenge in combating climate change is reducing and controlling Greenhouse gas emissions; therefore, this study explores the solutions green finance provides putting emphasis on the use of renewable energy, which is necessary for enhancing the transition to the green economy. With increasing attention to the concept of green finance, multiple forms of green investments and financial tools have come to fruition; the most prominent are green bonds. The rise of green bonds, a debt market to finance climate solutions, provide a promising mechanism for sustainable finance. Following the review, this paper compiles a comprehensive green bond dataset, presenting a statistical study of the evolution of the green bonds market from its first appearance in 2006 until 2021.

Keywords: climate change, GHG emissions, green bonds, green finance, sustainable finance

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Authors: Alireza Rahpeyma

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One of the most significant challenges faced by cities is inefficient and deteriorated urban fabric. Deteriorated areas bring about numerous issues, including economic, social, physical, and infrastructural problems, sewage management, environmental concerns, and security issues. One of the crucial necessities of modern urban life is the revitalization and renovation of these urban fabrics. Another important aspect is preserving a cohesive cultural and social identity during the urban renewal process. Urban renovation and upgrading are not a one-time occurrence but rather an ongoing process that ultimately needs to become ingrained in the system. This process is not swift; it involves sensitive and intricate stages that require well-designed plans within short, medium, and long-term timeframes. To revitalize dilapidated areas, a comprehensive understanding of the urban region's sustainability is essential. The goal of this study is to provide a suitable model for the upgrading and renewal of areas 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 10 in Tehran, preserving the heritage within these urban fabrics (urban assets), including the valuable morphologies of these areas, to prevent financial wastage. This study was conducted descriptively and analytically using the SWOT technique and GIS software. The research results regarding urban upgrading and renewal bring about the following points: 1) Urban upgrading and renewal ensure satisfactory efficiency, justice, environmental quality, safety and security, hygiene, sewage management, and the comfort and aesthetics of urban spaces. 2) Employing the above processes in old city centers re-establishes the historical and cultural connection between people and their past, a past that is evolving and improving and will not repeat itself. 3) Despite the expansion and growth of Iranian cities, cultural and national identity can be preserved by adhering to healthy urban revitalization principles. 4) Proper urban upgrading and renewal prevent social fragmentation, deviant behavioral patterns, psychological and occupational disorders, and financial losses. In general, preserving the identity and urban life in renovation and upgrading must be comprehensive, encompassing various dimensions, including physical, social, economic, political, and administrative aspects.

Keywords: dilapidated areas, renovation, sustainable reconstruction, Tehran-Iran

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Authors: Hasibe Caballero-Gomez, Richard Pepino

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Childhood lead poisoning is an issue that continues to plague major U.S. cities. Lead poisoning has been linked to decreases in academic achievement and IQ at levels as low as 5 ug/dL. Despite efforts from the Philadelphia Health Department to curtail systemic childhood lead poisoning, children continue to be identified with elevated blood lead levels (EBLLs) above the CDC reference level for diagnosis. This problem disproportionately affects low-income Black communities. At the moment, remediation is costly, and with the current policies in place, comprehensive remediation seems unrealistic. This research investigates community engagement policy and the ways pre-exisiting resources in target communities can be adjusted to decrease childhood lead poisoning. The study was done with two methods: content analysis and case studies. The content analysis includes 12 interviews from stakeholders and five published policy recommendations. The case studies focus on Baltimore, Chicago, Rochester, and St. Louis, four cities with significant childhood lead poisoning. Target communities were identified by mapping five factors that indicate a higher risk for lead poisoning. Seven priority zipcodes were identified for the model developed in this study. For these urban centers, 28 policy solutions and suggestions were identified, with three being identified at least four times in the content analysis and case studies. These three solutions create an interdependent model that offers increased community awareness and engagement with the issue that could potentially improve health and social outcomes for at-risk children.

Keywords: at-risk populations, community engagement, environmental justice, policy translation

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Authors: Masoud Nasiri Sarvi, Yunhua Luo

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Low-trauma hip fracture, usually caused by fall from standing height, has become a main source of morbidity and mortality for the elderly. Factors affecting hip fracture include sex, race, age, body weight, height, body mass distribution, etc., and thus, hip fracture risk in fall differs widely from subject to subject. It is therefore necessary to develop a subject-specific biomechanical model to predict hip fracture risk. The objective of this study is to develop a two-level, image-based, subject-specific biomechanical model consisting of a whole-body dynamics model and a proximal-femur finite element (FE) model for more accurately assessing the risk of hip fracture in lateral falls. Required information for constructing the model is extracted from a whole-body and a hip DXA (Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry) image of the subject. The proposed model considers all parameters subject-specifically, which will provide a fast, accurate, and non-expensive method for predicting hip fracture risk.

Keywords: bone mineral density, hip fracture risk, impact force, sideways falls

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Authors: Zeinab Haji Abolhasani, Romeo Marian, Lee Luong

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This paper and its companions (Part II, Part III) will concentrate on optimizing a class of supply chain problems known as Multi- Commodities Consumer Supply Chain (MCCSC) problem. MCCSC problem belongs to production-distribution (P-D) planning category. It aims to determine facilities location, consumers’ allocation, and facilities configuration to minimize total cost (CT) of the entire network. These facilities can be manufacturer units (MUs), distribution centres (DCs), and retailers/end-users (REs) but not limited to them. To address this problem, three major tasks should be undertaken. At the first place, a mixed integer non-linear programming (MINP) mathematical model is developed. Then, system’s behaviors under different conditions will be observed using a simulation modeling tool. Finally, the most optimum solution (minimum CT) of the system will be obtained using a multi-objective optimization technique. Due to the large size of the problem, and the uncertainties in finding the most optimum solution, integration of modeling and simulation methodologies is proposed followed by developing new approach known as GASG. It is a genetic algorithm on the basis of granular simulation which is the subject of the methodology of this research. In part II, MCCSC is simulated using discrete-event simulation (DES) device within an integrated environment of SimEvents and Simulink of MATLAB® software package followed by a comprehensive case study to examine the given strategy. Also, the effect of genetic operators on the obtained optimal/near optimal solution by the simulation model will be discussed in part III.

Keywords: supply chain, genetic algorithm, optimization, simulation, discrete event system

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Authors: Saeid Doaei

Abstract:

Background: Obesity in adolescence is a primary risk factor for obesity in adulthood. The objective of this study was the assessment of the effect of a comprehensive lifestyle intervention on different anthropometric indices in 12 to 16 years old boy adolescents. Methods: 96 adolescent boys of two schools of District 5 of Tehran have participated in this study. The schools were randomly assigned as intervention school (n=53) and control school (n=43). The height and weight of students were measured with a calibrated tape line and digital scale respectively and their BMI were calculated. The amounts of body fat percent (BF) and body muscle (BM) percent were determined by Bio Impedance Analyzer (BIA) considering the age, gender and height of students at baseline and after intervention. The intervention was implemented in the intervention school, according to the Ottawa charter principles. Results: 12 weeks of intervention decreased body fat percent in the intervention group in comparison with the control group (decreased by 1.81 % in the intervention group and increased by .39 % in the control group, P < .01). However, weight, BMI and BM did not change significantly. Conclusion: The result of this study showed that the implementation of comprehensive intervention in obese adolescents may improve the body composition, although these changes may not be reflected in BMI. It is possible that BMI is not a good indicator in assessment of the success of obesity management intervention.

Keywords: obesity, childhood, BMI, nutrition

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Authors: Soni Nopembri

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The objective of this research is to evaluate the implementation of teaching games for Understanding model by conducting action to physical education teacher who have got long teaching experience. The research applied Participatory Action Research. The subjects of this research were 19 physical education teachers who had got training of Teaching Games for Understanding. Data collection was conducted intensively through a questionnaire, in-depth interview, Focus Group Discussion (FGD), observation, and documentation. The collected data was analysis zed qualitatively and quantitatively. The result showed that physical education teachers had got an appropriate interpretation on TGfU model. Some indicators that were the focus of this research indicated this points; they are: (1) physical education teachers had good understanding toward TGfU model, (2) PE teachers’ competence in applying TGfU model on Physical Education at school were adequate, though some improvement were needed, (3) the influence factors in the implementation of TGfU model, in sequence, were teacher, facilities, environment, and students factors, (4) PE teachers’ perspective toward TGfU model were positively good, although some teachers were less optimistic toward the development of TGfU model in the future.

Keywords: TGfU, physical education teacher, teaching games, FGD

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Authors: Marzieh Zarei

Abstract:

Well instability is one of the most fundamental challenges faced by the oil and gas industry. Well wall stability analysis is a gap to be filled in the oil industry. The collection of static data such as well logging leads to the construction of a geomechanical numerical model, which will help in assessing the probable risks in future drilling. In this paper, geomechanical model was designed, and mechanical properties of the rock was determined at all points of the model. It was found the safe mud window was determined and the minimum and maximum mud pressures were determined in the ranges of 70-60 MPa and 110-100 MPa, respectively.

Keywords: geomechanics, numerical model, well stability, in-situ stress, underbalanced drilling

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Authors: Bencheikh Abdellah

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In this paper, we present a mathematical model dedicated to the simulation breaks bars in a three-phase cage induction motor. This model is based on a mesh circuit representing the rotor cage. The tested simulation allowed us to demonstrate the effectiveness of this model to describe the behavior of the machine in a healthy state, failure.

Keywords: AC motors, squirrel cage, diagnostics, MATLAB, SIMULINK

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Authors: Oleg Oborin

Abstract:

This paper is dedicated to the development of the model, which can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of long-term corporate strategies and identify the best strategies. The theoretical model of the relatively homogenous product market (such as iron and steel industry, mobile services or road transport) has been developed. In the model, the market consists of a large number of companies with different internal characteristics and objectives. The companies can perform mergers and acquisitions in order to increase their market share. The model allows the simulation of long-time dynamics of the market (for a period longer than 20 years). Therefore, a large number of simulations on random input data was conducted in the framework of the model. After that, the results of the model were compared with the dynamics of real markets, such as the US steel industry from the beginning of the XX century to the present day, and the market of mobile services in Germany for the period between 1990 and 2015.

Keywords: Economic Modelling, Long-Time Strategy, Mergers and Acquisitions, Simulation

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Authors: Liuhui Zhu, Peng Zeng

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With the rapid development in China, the urbanization has entered the transformation and promotion stage, and its direction of development has shifted to overall regional synergy. China has a large number of towns and villages, with comparative small scale and scattered distribution, which always support and provide resources to cities leading to urban-rural opposition, so it is difficult to achieve common development in a single town or village. In this context, the regional development should focus more on towns and villages to form a synergetic system, joining the regional association with cities. Thus, the paper raises the question about how to effectively organize towns and villages system to regulate the resource allocation and improve the comprehensive value of the regional area. To answer the question, it is necessary to find a suitable research unit and analysis of its present situation of towns and villages system for optimal development. By combing relevant researches and theoretical models, the county is the most basic administrative unit in China, which can directly guide and regulate the development of towns and villages, so the paper takes county as the research unit. Following the theoretical concept of ‘three structures and one network’, the paper concludes the research framework to analyse the present situation of towns and villages system, including scale structure, functional structure, spatial structure, and organization network. The analytical methods refer to the fractal theory and gravity model, using statistics and spatial data. The scale structure analyzes rank-size dimensions and uses the principal component method to calculate the comprehensive scale of towns and villages. The functional structure analyzes the functional types and industrial development of towns and villages. The spatial structure analyzes the aggregation dimension, network dimension, and correlation dimension of spatial elements to represent the overall spatial relationships. In terms of organization network, from the perspective of entity and ono-entity, the paper analyzes the transportation network and gravitational network. Based on the present situation analysis, the optimization strategies are proposed in order to achieve a synergetic relationship between towns and villages in the county area. The paper uses Suning county in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as a case study to apply the research framework and methods and then proposes the optimization orientations. The analysis results indicate that: (1) The Suning county is lack of medium-scale towns to transfer effect from towns to villages. (2) The distribution of gravitational centers is uneven, and the effect of gravity is limited only for nearby towns and villages. The gravitational network is not complete, leading to economic activities scattered and isolated. (3) The overall development of towns and villages system is immature, staying at ‘single heart and multi-core’ stage, and some specific optimization strategies are proposed. This study provides a regional view for the development of towns and villages and concludes the research framework and methods of towns and villages system for forming an effective synergetic relationship between them, contributing to organize resources and stimulate endogenous motivation, and form counter magnets to join the urban-rural integration.

Keywords: towns and villages system, organization structure, county area, fractal theory, gravity model

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Authors: Xiaogang Li, Jieqiong Miao

Abstract:

As for the problem of the grey forecasting model prediction accuracy is low, an improved grey prediction model is put forward. Firstly, use trigonometric function transform the original data sequence in order to improve the smoothness of data , this model called SGM( smoothness of grey prediction model), then combine the improved grey model with support vector machine , and put forward the grey support vector machine model (SGM - SVM).Before the establishment of the model, we use trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation preprocessing data in order to enhance the smoothness of the data and weaken the randomness of the data, then use support vector machine (SVM) to establish a prediction model for pre-processed data and select model parameters using genetic algorithms to obtain the optimum value of the global search. Finally, restore data through the "regressive generate" operation to get forecasting data. In order to prove that the SGM-SVM model is superior to other models, we select the battery life data from calce. The presented model is used to predict life of battery and the predicted result was compared with that of grey model and support vector machines．For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this paper presents root mean square error of this three different models .The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine (SGM-SVM) to predict life is optimal, and the root mean square error is only 3.18%. Keywords: grey forecasting model, trigonometric function, support vector machine, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

Keywords: Grey prediction model, trigonometric functions, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

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Authors: S. Jakšić, B. Žmuk

Abstract:

The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables obtaining important information on spill-over effects in the context of globalization and rising international linkages. The results of the study indicate that for most of the CSEE countries, exports are mainly driven by domestic shocks, both in the short run and in the long run. This study is the first application of the GVAR model to studying the export dynamics in the CSEE countries and therefore the results of the study present an important empirical contribution.

Keywords: export, GFEVD, global VAR, international trade, weak exogeneity

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Authors: Wei Xu, Abdo S. Haidar, Jianxin Gao

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Prosthetic socket is a component that connects the residual limb of an amputee with an artificial prosthesis. It is widely recognized as the most critical component that determines the comfort of a patient when wearing the prosthesis in his/her daily activities. Through the socket, the body weight and its associated dynamic load are distributed and transmitted to the prosthesis during walking, running or climbing. In order to achieve a good-fit socket for an individual amputee, it is essential to obtain the biomechanical properties of the residual limb. In current clinical practices, this is achieved by a touch-and-feel approach which is highly subjective. Although there have been significant advancements in prosthetic technologies such as microprocessor controlled knee and ankle joints in the last decade, the progress in designing a comfortable socket has been rather limited. This means that the current process of socket design is still very time-consuming, and highly dependent on the expertise of the prosthetist. Supported by the state-of-the-art sensor technologies and numerical simulations, a new socket design system is being developed to help prosthetists achieve rapid design of comfortable sockets for above knee amputees. This paper reports the research work related to establishing biomechanical models for socket design. Through numerical simulation using finite element method, comprehensive relationships between pressure on residual limb and socket geometry were established. This allowed local topological adjustment for the socket so as to optimize the pressure distributions across the residual limb. When the full body weight of a patient is exerted on the residual limb, high pressures and shear forces between the residual limb and the socket occur. During numerical simulations, various hyperplastic models, namely Ogden, Yeoh and Mooney-Rivlin, were used, and their effectiveness in representing the biomechanical properties of soft tissues of the residual limb was evaluated. This also involved reverse engineering, which resulted in an optimal representative model under compression test. To validate the simulation results, a range of silicone models were fabricated. They were tested by an indentation device which yielded the force-displacement relationships. Comparisons of results obtained from FEA simulations and experimental tests showed that the Ogden model did not fit well the soft tissue material indentation data, while the Yeoh model gave the best representation of the soft tissue mechanical behavior under indentation. Compared with hyperplastic model, the result showed that elastic model also had significant errors. In addition, normal and shear stress distributions on the surface of the soft tissue model were obtained. The effect of friction in compression testing and the influence of soft tissue stiffness and testing boundary conditions were also analyzed. All these have contributed to the overall goal of designing a good-fit socket for individual above knee amputees.

Keywords: above knee amputee, finite element simulation, hyperplastic model, prosthetic socket

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Authors: S. M. Mahbobur Rahman

Abstract:

Whole building energy simulation models are widely used for predicting future energy consumption, performance diagnosis and optimum control.  Black box building energy modeling approach has been heavily studied in the past decade. The thermal response of a building can also be modeled using a network of interconnected resistors (R) and capacitors (C) at each node called R-C network. In this study, a model building, Case 600, as described in the “Standard Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Program”, ASHRAE standard 140, is studied along with a 3R2C thermal network model and the ASHRAE clear sky solar radiation model. Although building an energy model involves two important parts of building component i.e., the envelope and internal mass, the effect of building internal mass is not considered in this study. All the characteristic parameters of the building envelope are evaluated as on Case 600. Finally, monthly building energy consumption from the thermal network model is compared with a simple-box energy model within reasonable accuracy. From the results, 0.6-9.4% variation of monthly energy consumption is observed because of the south-facing windows.

Keywords: ASHRAE case study, clear sky solar radiation model, energy modeling, thermal network model

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Authors: Erika Tatiana Ruiz, Wilson Adarme Jaimes

Abstract:

This abstract presents the methodology for improving the logistics processes of agricultural production units belonging to the coffee, cocoa, and fruit sectors, starting from the fundamental concepts and detailing each of the phases to carry out the diagnosis, which will be the basis for the formulation of its action plan and implementation of the maturity model. As a result of this work, the maturity model is formulated to improve logistics processes. This model seeks to: generate a progressive model that is useful for all productive units belonging to these sectors at the national level, regardless of their initial conditions, focus on the improvement of logistics processes as a strategy that contributes to improving the competitiveness of the agricultural sector in Colombia and spread the implementation of good logistics practices in postharvest in all departments of the country through autonomous tools. This model has been built through a series of steps that allow the evaluation and improvement of the logistics dimensions or indicators. The potential improvements for each dimension provide the foundation on which to advance to the next level. Within the maturity model, a methodology is indicated for the design and execution of strategies to improve its logistics processes, taking into account the current state of each production unit.

Keywords: agroindustrial, characterization, logistics, maturity model, processes

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Authors: Sachin Jain, Daniel Perez-Astudillo, Dunia A. Bachour, Antonio P. Sanfilippo

Abstract:

The future of solar energy in Qatar is evolving steadily. Hence, high-quality spatial solar radiation data is of the uttermost requirement for any planning and commissioning of solar technology. Generally, two types of solar radiation data are available: satellite data and ground observations. Satellite solar radiation data is developed by the physical and statistical model. Ground data is collected by solar radiation measurement stations. The ground data is of high quality. However, they are limited to distributed point locations with the high cost of installation and maintenance for the ground stations. On the other hand, satellite solar radiation data is continuous and available throughout geographical locations, but they are relatively less accurate than ground data. To utilize the advantage of both data, a product has been developed here which provides spatial continuity and higher accuracy than any of the data alone. The popular satellite databases: National Solar radiation Data Base, NSRDB (PSM V3 model, spatial resolution: 4 km) is chosen here for merging with ground-measured solar radiation measurement in Qatar. The spatial distribution of ground solar radiation measurement stations is comprehensive in Qatar, with a network of 13 ground stations. The monthly average of the daily total Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) component from ground and satellite data is used for error analysis. The normalized root means square error (NRMSE) values of 3.31%, 6.53%, and 6.63% for October, November, and December 2019 were observed respectively when comparing in-situ and NSRDB data. The method is based on the Empirical Bayesian Kriging Regression Prediction model available in ArcGIS, ESRI. The workflow of the algorithm is based on the combination of regression and kriging methods. A regression model (OLS, ordinary least square) is fitted between the ground and NSBRD data points. A semi-variogram is fitted into the experimental semi-variogram obtained from the residuals. The kriging residuals obtained after fitting the semi-variogram model were added to NSRBD data predicted values obtained from the regression model to obtain the final predicted values. The NRMSE values obtained after merging are respectively 1.84%, 1.28%, and 1.81% for October, November, and December 2019. One more explanatory variable, that is the ground elevation, has been incorporated in the regression and kriging methods to reduce the error and to provide higher spatial resolution (30 m). The final GHI maps have been created after merging, and NRMSE values of 1.24%, 1.28%, and 1.28% have been observed for October, November, and December 2019, respectively. The proposed merging method has proven as a highly accurate method. An additional method is also proposed here to generate calibrated maps by using regression and kriging model and further to use the calibrated model to generate solar radiation maps from the explanatory variable only when not enough historical ground data is available for long-term analysis. The NRMSE values obtained after the comparison of the calibrated maps with ground data are 5.60% and 5.31% for November and December 2019 month respectively.

Keywords: global horizontal irradiation, GIS, empirical bayesian kriging regression prediction, NSRDB

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