Search results for: predicting models

Authors: José M Martín-Moreno, Rafaela Pérez, Jesús Ruiz

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In this paper we use a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) for the Spanish economy to search for a deeper characterization of the determinants of Spain’s macroeconomic fluctuations throughout the period 1970-2008. In order to do this, we distinguish between tradable and non-tradable goods to take into account the fact that the presence of non-tradable goods in this economy is one of the largest in the world. We estimate a DSGE model with supply and demand shocks (sectorial productivity, public spending, international real interest rate and preferences) using Kalman Filter techniques. We find the following results. First of all, our variance decomposition analysis suggests that 1) the preference shock basically accounts for private consumption volatility, 2) the idiosyncratic productivity shock accounts for non-tradable output volatility, and 3) the sectorial productivity shock along with the international interest rate both greatly account for tradable output. Secondly, the model closely replicates the time path observed in the data for the Spanish economy and finally, the model captures the main cyclical qualitative features of this economy reasonably well.

Keywords: business cycle, DSGE models, Kalman filter estimation, small open economy

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Authors: S. Aouabdi, M. Taibi

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The supervision of chemical processes is the subject of increased development because of the increasing demands on reliability and safety. An important aspect of the safe operation of chemical process is the earlier detection of (process faults or other special events) and the location and removal of the factors causing such events, than is possible by conventional limit and trend checks. With the aid of process models, estimation and decision methods it is possible to also monitor hundreds of variables in a single operating unit, and these variables may be recorded hundreds or thousands of times per day. In the absence of appropriate processing method, only limited information can be extracted from these data. Hence, a tool is required that can project the high-dimensional process space into a low-dimensional space amenable to direct visualization, and that can also identify key variables and important features of the data. Our contribution based on powerful techniques for development of a new monitoring method based on multi-scale entropy MSE in order to characterize the behaviour of the concentrations of different gases present in synthesis and soft sensor based on PCA is applied to estimate these variables.

Keywords: ammonia synthesis, concentrations of different gases, soft sensor, multi-scale entropy, multivarite statistics

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Authors: Kashif Hassan, M.A. Ahanger

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Floods have become more frequent and severe due to effects of global climate change and human alterations of the natural environment. Flood prediction/ forecasting and control is one of the greatest challenges facing the world today. The forecast of floods is achieved by the use of hydraulic models such as HEC-RAS, which are designed to simulate flow processes of the surface water. Extreme flood events in river Jhelum , lasting from a day to few are a major disaster in the State of Jammu and Kashmir, India. In the present study HEC-RAS model was applied to two different reaches of river Jhelum in order to estimate the flood levels corresponding to 25, 50 and 100 year return period flood events at important locations and to deduce flood vulnerability of important areas and structures. The flow rates for the two reaches were derived from flood-frequency analysis of 50 years of historic peak flow data. Manning's roughness coefficient n was selected using detailed analysis. Rating Curves were also generated to serve as base for determining the boundary conditions. Calibration and Validation procedures were applied in order to ensure the reliability of the model. Sensitivity analysis was also performed in order to ensure the accuracy of Manning's n in generating water surface profiles.

Keywords: flood plain, HEC-RAS, Jhelum, return period

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Authors: M. Bodner, M. Scampicchio

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Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy coupled with chemometrics was used to distinguish between butter samples and non-butter samples. Further, quantification of the content of margarine in adulterated butter samples was investigated. Fingerprinting region (1400-800 cm^–1) was used to develop unsupervised pattern recognition (Principal Component Analysis, PCA), supervised modeling (Soft Independent Modelling by Class Analogy, SIMCA), classification (Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis, PLS-DA) and regression (Partial Least Squares Regression, PLS-R) models. PCA of the fingerprinting region shows a clustering of the two sample types. All samples were classified in their rightful class by SIMCA approach; however, nine adulterated samples (between 1% and 30% w/w of margarine) were classified as belonging both at the butter class and at the non-butter one. In the two-class PLS-DA model’s (R² = 0.73, RMSEP, Root Mean Square Error of Prediction = 0.26% w/w) sensitivity was 71.4% and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) 100%. Its threshold was calculated at 7% w/w of margarine in adulterated butter samples. Finally, PLS-R model (R² = 0.84, RMSEP = 16.54%) was developed. PLS-DA was a suitable classification tool and PLS-R a proper quantification approach. Results demonstrate that FT-IR spectroscopy combined with PLS-R can be used as a rapid, simple and safe method to identify pure butter samples from adulterated ones and to determine the grade of adulteration of margarine in butter samples.

Keywords: adulterated butter, margarine, PCA, PLS-DA, PLS-R, SIMCA

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Authors: Hooman Dabirmanesh, Attila M. Zsaki

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Traditionally, rock slope stability is carried out using limit equilibrium analysis when investigating toppling failure. In these equilibrium methods, internal forces exerted between columns are not clearly defined, and to the authors’ best knowledge, there is no consensus in literature with respect to the results of analysis. A discrete element method-based numerical model was developed and applied to simulate the behavior of rock layers subjected to toppling failure. Based on this calibrated numerical model, a study of the location and distribution of internal forces that result in equilibrium was carried out. The sum of side forces was applied at a point on a block which properly represents the force to determine the inter-column force distribution. In terms of the side force distribution coefficient, the result was compared to those obtained from laboratory centrifuge tests. The results of the simulation show the suitable criteria to select the correct position for the internal exerted force between rock layers. In addition, the numerical method demonstrates how a theoretical method could be reliable by considering the interaction between the rock layers.

Keywords: contact bond, discrete element, force distribution, limit equilibrium, tensile stress

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Authors: Amit Saraswat, Ruchi Tewari

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Purpose: The research paper aims at understanding the alignment of business and IT in the Indian context and the business value attached to such an alignment. Methodology: The study is conducted in two stages. Stage one: Bibliographic research was conducted to evolve the parameters for defining alignment. Stage two: Evolving a model for strategic alignment to conduct an empirical study. The model is defined in terms of four fundamental domains of strategic management choice – business strategy, information strategy, organizational structure, and information technology structure. A survey through a questionnaire was conducted across organizations from 4 different industries and Structure Equation Modelling (SEM) technique is used for validating the model. Findings: In the Indian scenario all the subscales of alignment could not be validated. It could be validated that organizational strategy impacts information strategy and information technology structure. Research Limitations: The study is limited to the Indian context. Business IT alignment may be culture dependent so further research is required to validate the model in other cultures. Originality/Value: In the western world several models of alignment of business strategy and information systems is available but they do not measure the extent of alignment which the current study in the Indian context. Findings of the study can be used by managers in strategizing and understanding their business and information systems needs holistically and cohesively leading to efficient use of resources and output.

Keywords: business strategy, information technology (IT), business IT alignment, SEM

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Authors: Pankaj Prashar, Bimlesh Kumar, Ankita Sood, Anamika Gautam

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Pharmacovigilance (PV) is a rapidly growing discipline in pharmaceutical industries as an integral part of clinical research and drug development over the past few decades. PV carries a breadth of scope from drug manufacturing to its regulation with safer utilization. The fundamental steps of PV not only includes data collection and verification, coding of drugs with adverse drug reactions, causality assessment and timely reporting to the authorities but also monitoring drug manufacturing, safety issues, product quality and conduction of due diligence. Standardization of adverse event information, collaboration of multiple departments in different companies, preparation of documents in accordance to both governmental as well as non-governmental organizations (FDA, EMA, GVP, ICH) are the advancements in discipline of PV. De-harmonization, lack of predictive drug safety models, improper funding by government, non-reporting, and non-acceptability of ADRs by developing countries and reports directly from patients to the monitoring centres respectively are the major road backs of PV. Mandatory pharmacovigilance reporting, frequent inspections, funding by government, educating and training medical students, pharmacists and nurses in this segment can bring about empowerment in PV. This area needs to be addressed with a sense of urgency for the safe utilization of pharmaceuticals.

Keywords: pharmacovigilance, regulatory, adverse event, drug safety

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Authors: Mengjie Zhou

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Under the rapid promotion of digital logistics, the old consumption space in cities is undergoing profound transformation and reconstruction. This article systematically analyzes the impact of digital logistics on existing consumer spaces in cities and how these spaces can adapt to and lead this change through distinct ‘spatial production’ models. The digital transformation of the logistics industry has significantly improved logistics efficiency and service quality while also putting forward new requirements for the form and function of consumer space. In this process, the old consumption space in cities not only faces the trend of material consumption transforming into spiritual consumption but also needs to face profound changes in consumer behavior patterns. Taking Fengying Xili in Changsha as an empirical case, this article explores in detail how it successfully transformed from a traditional consumption space to a modern cultural consumption space by introducing new business formats, optimizing spatial layout, and improving service quality while preserving its historical heritage. This case not only provides valuable practical experience for the transformation of old urban consumption spaces but also demonstrates the feasibility and potential of the new model of ‘spatial production’.

Keywords: digital logistics, urban consumption space, space production, urban renewal

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Authors: John Narh

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There is high rate of deforestation in Ghana due to agricultural expansion, illegal mining and illegal logging. While it is attempting to address the illegalities, Ghana has also initiated a reforestation program known as the Modified Taungya System (MTS). Within the MTS framework, farmers are allocated degraded forestland and provided with tree seedlings to practice agroforestry until the trees form canopy. Yet, the political, ecological and economic models that inform the selection of tree species, the motivations of participating farmers as well as the factors that accounts for differential access to the land and performance of farmers engaged in the program lie underexplored. Using a sequential explanatory mixed methods approach in five forest-fringe communities in the Eastern Region of Ghana, the study reveals that economic factors and Ghana’s commitment to international conventions on the environment underpin the selection of tree species for the MTS program. Social network and access to remittances play critical roles in having access to, and enhances poor farmers’ chances in the program respectively. Farmers are more motivated by the access to degraded forestland to cultivate food crops than having a share in the trees that they plant. As such, in communities where participating farmers are not informed about their benefit in the tree that they plant, the program is largely unsuccessful.

Keywords: translocality, deforestation, forest management, social network

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Authors: Quiza Pearl Senilla, Hannah Mercado, Francis Angelo Erosa

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Underdog narratives not only provides viewers with models of determination and hard work but that inducing hope may increase the likelihood that viewers will pursue their own goals in life. Although it has been proven that underdog narratives not only create a positive motivational state to the viewers but can also induce hope, little attention has been given to know if this underdog narrative affect the health outcomes or the subjective well-being of the viewers and if their hopefulness mediates on it. To address this gap, using underdog narratives as a predictor and hope as mediator, this study determined the effect of underdog narratives to the subjective well-being of the respondents, the relationship of hope and subjective well-being and last is the mediating effect of hopefulness. This study is an experimental research that uses a between subject design. Purposeful random sampling was used wherein the respondents must meet the following criteria to be part of the study. One hundred and twenty (N=120) Local State University students were assigned to different treatment conditions— underdog narrative, comedy, nature scenes—and a no exposure control group. Results show that there is a minimal difference on the subjective well-being of the respondents when exposed to different treatment condition although it is not significant. A moderate positive correlation between hope and subjective well-being also reveals in this study. And last the result also shows that there is no mediating effect of hopefulness to the subjective well-being of the subjects through exposure to underdog narrative.

Keywords: hope, hope theory, subjective well-being, underdog narratives

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Authors: Khaled Sandjak, Boualem Tiliouine

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Structural analysis of flexible pavements has been and still is currently performed using multi-layer elastic theory. However, for thinly surfaced pavements subjected to low to medium volumes of traffics, the importance of non-linear stress-strain behaviour of unbound granular materials (UGM) requires the use of more sophisticated numerical models for structural design and performance of such pavements. In the present work, nonlinear unbound aggregates constitutive model is implemented within an axisymmetric finite element code developed to simulate the nonlinear behaviour of pavement structures including two local aggregates of different mineralogical nature, typically used in Algerian pavements. The performance of the mechanical model is examined about its capability of representing adequately, under various conditions, the granular material non-linearity in pavement analysis. In addition, deflection data collected by falling weight deflectometer (FWD) are incorporated into the analysis in order to assess the sensitivity of critical pavement design criteria and pavement design life to the constitutive model. Finally, conclusions of engineering significance are formulated.

Keywords: FWD backcalculations, finite element simulations, Nonlinear resilient behaviour, pavement response and performance, RLT test results, unbound granular materials

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Authors: Siriluk Ruangrungrote

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Analyses of available data from MFR-7 measurement were performed and discussed on the study of tropospheric aerosol and its consequence in Thailand. Since, ASSA (w) is one of the most important parameters for a determination of aerosol effect on radioactive forcing. Here the estimation of w was directly determined in terms of the ratio of aerosol scattering optical depth to aerosol extinction optical depth (ωscat/ωext) without any utilization of aerosol computer code models. This is of benefit for providing the elimination of uncertainty causing by the modeling assumptions and the estimation of actual aerosol input data. Diurnal w of 5 cloudless-days in winter and early summer at 5 distinct wavelengths of 415, 500, 615, 673 and 870 nm with the consideration of Rayleigh scattering and atmospheric column NO2 and Ozone contents were investigated, respectively. Besides, the tendency of spectral dependence of ω representing two seasons was observed. The characteristic of spectral results reveals that during wintertime the atmosphere of the inland rural vicinity for the period of measurement possibly dominated with a lesser amount of soil dust aerosols loading than one in early summer. Hence, the major aerosol loading particularly in summer was subject to a mixture of both soil dust and biomass burning aerosols.

Keywords: aerosol scattering optical depth, aerosol extinction optical depth, biomass burning aerosol, soil dust aerosol

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Authors: Mehrnoosh Askarizadeh

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People, process and IT are the most important assets of any organization. Optimal utilization of these resources has been the question of research in business for many decades. The business world have responded by inventing various methodologies that can be used for addressing problems of quality improvement, efficiency of processes, continuous improvement, reduction of waste, automation, strategy alignments etc. Some of these methodologies can be commonly called as Business Process Quality Management methodologies (BPQM). In essence, the first references to the process management can be traced back to Frederick Taylor and scientific management. Time and motion study was addressed to improvement of manufacturing process efficiency. The ideas of scientific management were in use for quite a long period until more advanced quality management techniques were developed in Japan and USA. One of the first prominent methods had been Total Quality Management (TQM) which evolved during 1980’s. About the same time, Six Sigma (SS) originated at Motorola as a separate method. SS spread and evolved; and later joined with ideas of Lean manufacturing to form Lean Six Sigma. In 1990’s due to emerging IT technologies, beginning of globalization, and strengthening of competition, companies recognized the need for better process and quality management. Business Process Management (BPM) emerged as a novel methodology that has taken all this into account and helped to align IT technologies with business processes and quality management. In this article we will study various aspects of above mentioned methods and identified their relations.

Keywords: e-process, quality, TQM, BPM, lean, six sigma, CPI, information technology, management

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Authors: Jia H. Wong, Jingli Zhang, Habsah Mohamad, Iswatun H. Abdullah Ripain, Muhammad Bilal, Amelia J. Lloyd, Abdul A. Mohamed Yusoff, Jafri M. Abdullah

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Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological diseases affecting more than 50 million of people worldwide. Epilepsy is a state of recurrent, spontaneous seizures with multiple syndromes and symptoms of different causes of brain dysfunction, prognosis, and treatments; characterized by transient, occasional and stereotyped interruptions of behavior whereby the excitatory-inhibitory activities within the central nervous system (CNS) are thrown out of balance due to various kinds of interferences. The goal of antiepileptic treatment is to enable patients to be free from seizures or to achieve control of seizures through surgical treatment and/or pharmacotherapy. Pharmacotherapy through AED plays an important role especially in countries with epilepsy treatment gap due to costs and availability of health facilities, skills and resources, yet there are about one-third of the people with epilepsy have drug-resistant seizures. Hence, this poses considerable challenges to the healthcare system and the effort in providing cost-effective treatment as well as the search for alternatives to treatment and management of epilepsy. Enhancement of γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA)-mediated inhibitory neurotransmission is one of the key mechanisms of actions of antiepileptic drugs. GABA type > a receptors (GABAAR) are ligand-gated ion channels that mediate rapid inhibitory neurotransmission upon the binding of GABA with a heteropentameric structure forming a central pore that is permeable to the influx of chloride ions in its activated state. The major isoform of GABAA receptors consists of two α1, two β2, and one γ2 subunit. It is the most abundantly expressed combinations in the brain and the most commonly researched through Xenopus laevis oocytes. With the advancing studies on ethnomedicine and traditional treatments using medicinal plants, increasing evidence reveal that spice and herb plants with medicinal properties play an important role in the treatment of ailments within communities across different cultures. Capsaicin is the primary natural capsaicinoid in hot peppers of plant genus Capsicum, consist of an aromatic ring, an amide linkage and a hydrophobic side chain. The study showed that capsaicins conferred neuroprotection in status epilepticus mouse models through anti-ictogenic, hypothermic, antioxidative, anti-inflammatory, and anti-apoptotic actions in a dose-dependent manner. In this study, five capsaicin derivatives were tested for their ability to increase the GABA-induced chloride current on α1β2γ2S of GABAAR expressed on Xenopus laevis oocytes using the method of two-microelectrode voltage clamp. Two of the capsaicin derivatives, IS5 (N-(4-hydroxy-3-methoxybenzyl)-3-methylbutyramide) and IS10 (N-(4-hydroxy-3-methoxybenzyl)-decanamide) at a concentration of 30µM were able to significantly increase the GABA-induced chloride current with p=0.002 and p=0.026 respectively. This study were able to show the enhancement effect of two capsaicin derivatives with moderate length of hydrocarbon chain on this receptor subtype, revealing the promising inhibitory activity of capsaicin derivatives through enhancement of GABA-induced chloride current and further investigations should be carried out to verify its antiepileptic effects in animal models.

Keywords: α1β2γ2 GABAA receptors, α1β2γ2S, antiepileptic, capsaicin derivatives, two-microelectrode voltage clamp, Xenopus laevis oocytes

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Authors: Zebider Asire Munyelet, Yibeltal Chanie Manie

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In the modern digital landscape, the increase of social media platforms has become identical to the evolution of online consumer behavior. This study investigates the complicated relationship between social media and the purchasing decisions of online buyers. Through an extensive review of existing literature and empirical research, the aim is to comprehensively analyze the multidimensional impact that social media exerts on the various stages of the online buyer's journey. The investigation encompasses the exploration of how social media platforms serve as influential channels for information dissemination, product discovery, and consumer engagement. Additionally, the study investigates the psychological aspects underlying the role of social media in shaping buyer preferences, perceptions, and trust in online transactions. The methodologies employed include both quantitative and qualitative analyses, incorporating surveys, interviews, and data analytics to derive meaningful insights. Statistical models are applied to distinguish patterns in online buyer behavior concerning product awareness, brand loyalty, and decision-making processes. The expected outcomes of this research contribute not only to the academic understanding of the dynamic interplay between social media and online buyer behavior but also offer practical implications for marketers, e-commerce platforms, and policymakers.

Keywords: social platforms, buyer behavior, consumer behavior, digital era

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Authors: Danish Farooq, Janos Juhasz

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Car-motorcycle accidents have been observed higher in recent years, which caused mainly riders’ fatalities and serious injuries. In-depth crash investigation methods aim to investigate the main factors which are likely involved in fatal road accidents and injury outcomes. The main objective of this study is to investigate the involved factors in car-motorcycle accidents in Budapest city. The procedure included statistical analysis and data sampling to identify car-motorcycle accidents by dominant accident types based on collision configurations. The police report was used as a data source for specified accidents, and simulation models were plotted according to scale (M 1:200). Car-motorcycle accidents were simulated in Virtual Crash software for 5 seconds before the collision. The simulation results showed that the main involved factors to car-motorcycle accidents were human behavior and view obstructions. The comprehensive, in-depth analysis also found that most of the car drivers and riders were unable to perform collision avoidance manoeuvres before the collision. This study can help the traffic safety authorities to focus on simulated involved factors to solve road safety issues in car-motorcycle accidents. The study also proposes safety measures to improve safe movements among road users.

Keywords: car motorcycle accidents, in-depth analysis, microscopic simulation, safety measures

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Authors: Marouen Hamdi, Johannes A. Poulis

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This study investigates the impact of UV/ozone treatment on the adhesion of ethylene propylene diene methylene (EPDM) rubber, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) materials. The experimental tests consist of contact angle measurements, standardized adhesion tests, and spectroscopic and microscopic observations. Also, commonly-used surface free energy models were applied to characterize the wettability of the materials. Preliminary results show that the treatment enhances the wettability of the examined polymers. Also, it considerably improved the adhesion strength of PVC and ABS and shifted their failure modes from adhesive to cohesive, without a significant effect on EPDM. Spectroscopic characterization showed significant oxidation-induced changes in the chemical structures of treated PVC and ABS surfaces. Also, new morphological changes (microcracks, micro-holes, and wrinkles) were observed on these two materials using the SEM. These chemical and morphological changes on treated PVC and ABS promote more reactivity and mechanical interlocking with the adhesive, which explains the improvement in their adhesion strength. After characterizing the adhesion strength of the systems, accelerated ageing tests in controlled environment chambers will be conducted to determine the effect of temperature, moisture, and UV radiation on the performance of the polymeric bonded joints.

Keywords: accelerated tests, adhesion strength, ageing of polymers, UV/ozone treatment

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Authors: A. Alao Olumuyiwa

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Health hazards reported to be associated with exposure to electromagnetic radiations which include brain tumors, genotoxic effects, neurological effects, immune system deregulation, allergic responses and some cardiovascular effects are discussed under a closed tabular model in this study. This review however showed that there is strong and robust evidence that chronic exposures to electromagnetic frequency across the spectrum, through strength, consistency, biological plausibility and many dose-response relationships, may result in brain cancer and other carcinogenic disease symptoms. There is therefore no safe threshold because of the genotoxic nature of the mechanism that may however be involved. The discussed study explains that the cell phone has induced effects upon the blood –brain barrier permeability and the cerebellum exposure to continuous long hours RF radiation may result in significant increase in albumin extravasations. A physical Biomodeling approach is however employed to review this health effects using Specific Absorption Rate (SAR) of different GSM machines to critically examine the symptoms such as a decreased loco motor activity, increased grooming and reduced memory functions in a variety of animal spices in classified grouped and sub grouped models.

Keywords: brain cancer, electromagnetic radiations, physical biomodeling, specific absorption rate (SAR)

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Authors: Hui-Qin Xu, Xing Lv, Yu-Han Tao

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The depth study aimed on the mechanism of morroniside in protecting diabetic nephropathy. The diabetic mice models with blood glucose above 15mmol/L were divided into model, aminoguanidine, metformin, captopril, morroniside low-dose, and morroniside high-dose groups. And normal group was set simultaneously. All groups were fed with high AGEs food except normal group. Each group was intragastric administration of the corresponding medicine except model and normal groups. After 12 weeks, all the indictors were measured. It showed that the morroniside could reduce blood glucose significantly, urinary protein, serum urea nitrogen, creatine, pathological changes, AGEs levels, renal cortex RAGE mRNA and RAGE protein expression levels; increase food consumption, water intake, urine volume, insulin secretion. As a conclusion, morroniside from cornus officinalis can protect renal in diabetic mice, its mechanism may be related to the proliferation of islet cells, rectify glycometabolism, reduce serum and kidney AGEs content, and descend renal RAGEmRNA and RAGE protein expression levels.

Keywords: cornus officinalis, diabetic nephropathy, morroniside, RAGE protein

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Authors: Thuan Nguyen

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In the present time, data to a data-driven knowledge-based economy is the same as oil to the industrial age hundreds of years ago. Data is everywhere in vast volumes! Big data analytics is expected to help firms not only efficiently improve performance but also completely transform how they should run their business. However, employing the emergent technology successfully is not easy, and assessing the roles of big data in improving firm performance is even much harder. There was a lack of studies that have examined the impacts of big data analytics on organizational performance. This study aimed to fill the gap. The present study suggested using firms’ intellectual capital as a proxy for big data in evaluating its impact on organizational performance. The present study employed the Value Added Intellectual Coefficient method to measure firm intellectual capital, via its three main components: human capital efficiency, structural capital efficiency, and capital employed efficiency, and then used the structural equation modeling technique to model the data and test the models. The financial fundamental and market data of 100 randomly selected publicly listed firms were collected. The results of the tests showed that only human capital efficiency had a significant positive impact on firm profitability, which highlighted the prominent human role in the impact of big data technology.

Keywords: big data, big data analytics, intellectual capital, organizational performance, value added intellectual coefficient

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Authors: Munoz A. Tatiana, Solano R. Brandon, Montes C. Juan, Cierco G. Javier

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The hydrodynamic cavitation is a process in which the energy that the fluids have in the phase changes is used. From this energy, local temperatures greater than 5000 °C are obtained where thermal cracking of the fluid molecules takes place. The process applied to heavy oil affects variables such as viscosity, density, and composition, which constitutes an important improvement in the quality of crude oil. In this study, the need to design a software through mathematical integration models of mixing, cavitation, kinetics, and reactor, allows modeling changes in density, viscosity, and composition of a heavy oil crude, when the fluid passes through a hydrodynamic cavitation reactor. In order to evaluate the viability of this technique in the industry, a heavy oil of 18° API gravity, was simulated using naphtha as a hydrogen donor at concentrations of 1, 2 and 5% vol, where the simulation results showed an API gravity increase to 0.77, 1.21 and 1.93° respectively and a reduction viscosity by 9.9, 12.9 and 15.8%. The obtained results allow to have a favorable panorama on this technological development, an appropriate visualization on the generation of innovative knowledge of this technique and the technical-economic opportunity that benefits the development of the hydrocarbon sector related to heavy crude oil that includes the largest world oil production.

Keywords: hydrodynamic cavitation, thermal cracking, hydrogen donor, heavy oil upgrading, simulator

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Authors: Maria Krambia-Kapardis, Andreas Kapardis

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The relevant literature has been inundated with arguments for ethics, moral values, honesty, resilience, trust in leadership as well as responsible leadership. In many countries around the globe, and as shown by some recent reports, many political leaders are not role models and do not show best practices by being ethical, responsible, compassionate, and resilient. Journalists, whistleblowers, WikiLeaks, Al Jazeera, and the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) have been brought out from the shadow of political leaders who lack the virtues/attributes outlined above by the UN Global Compact. A number of political leaders who lack ethical and responsible leadership skills will continue to find loopholes to enrich themselves and their close friends and relatives. Some researchers use the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic; however, this test, while it provides helpful and useful insights into the personality of a person who leads or inspire his/her people but does not show if that person is ethical, motivating, and empowers his people with trust and honesty. Thus, it is recommended that political leaders ought to undergo training that encompasses Aristotelian Ethics by embedding the appropriate values and behaviours in their strategies, policies, and decisions, enhancing the change factors that will help in the implementation of a more sustainable development model. Finally, there is a need to develop a pedagogy and a curriculum which enables the development of responsible political leaders.

Keywords: political leaders, corruption, anti-corruption, political corruption

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Authors: Nur Sarma, Paul M. Tuohy, Siniša Djurović

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This paper presents an in-depth investigation of the effects of several grid supply harmonic voltages on the stator currents of an example wound rotor induction machine. The observed effects of higher order grid supply harmonics are identified using a finite element time stepping transient model, as well as a time-stepping electromagnetic model. In addition, a number of analytical equations to calculate the spectral content of the stator currents are presented in the paper. The presented equations are validated through comparison with the obtained spectra predicted using the finite element and electromagnetic models. The presented study provides a better understanding of the origin of supply harmonic effects identified in the stator currents of the example wound rotor induction machine. Furthermore, the study helps to understand the effects of higher order supply harmonics on the harmonic emissions of the wound rotor induction machine.  

Keywords: wound rotor induction machine, supply harmonics, current spectrum, power spectrum, power quality, harmonic emmisions, finite element analysis

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Authors: Ebru Turgal, Beyza Doganay Erdogan

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Machine learning aims to model the relationship between the response and features. Medical decision-making researchers would like to make decisions about patients’ course and treatment, by examining the repeated measurements over time. Boosting approach is now being used in machine learning area for these aims as an influential tool. The aim of this study is to show the usage of multivariate tree boosting in this field. The main reason for utilizing this approach in the field of decision-making is the ease solutions of complex relationships. To show how multivariate tree boosting method can be used to identify important features and feature-time interaction, we used the data, which was collected retrospectively from Ankara University Chest Diseases Department records. Dataset includes repeated PF ratio measurements. The follow-up time is planned for 120 hours. A set of different models is tested. In conclusion, main idea of classification with weighed combination of classifiers is a reliable method which was shown with simulations several times. Furthermore, time varying variables will be taken into consideration within this concept and it could be possible to make accurate decisions about regression and survival problems.

Keywords: boosted multivariate trees, longitudinal data, multivariate regression tree, panel data

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Authors: Kritiyaporn Kunsook

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Machine learning algorithms (MLAs) such us artificial neural networks (ANNs), decision tree, support vector machines (SVMs), Naïve Bayes, and ensemble classifier by voting are powerful data driven methods that are relatively less widely used in the mapping of technique of system, and thus have not been comparatively evaluated together thoroughly in this field. The performances of a series of MLAs, ANNs, decision tree, SVMs, Naïve Bayes, and ensemble classifier by voting in technique of hydroponic systems prospectively modeling are compared based on the accuracy of each model. Classification of hydroponic systems only covers the test samples from vegetables grown with Nutrient film technique (NFT) and Deep flow technique (DFT). The feature, which are the characteristics of vegetables compose harvesting height width, temperature, require light and color. The results indicate that the classification performance of the ANNs is 98%, decision tree is 98%, SVMs is 97.33%, Naïve Bayes is 96.67%, and ensemble classifier by voting is 98.96% algorithm respectively.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, decision tree, support vector machines, naïve Bayes, ensemble classifier by voting

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Authors: Amany A. Ragheb, Ghada Ragheb, Abd ElRahman A.

Abstract:

Egypt has a countless heritage of mansions, castles, cities, towns, villages, industrial and manufacturing sites. This richness of heritage provides endless and matchless prospects for culture. Despite being famous worldwide, Egypt’s heritage still is in constant need of protection. Political conflicts and religious revolutions form a direct threat to buildings in various areas, historic, archaeological sites, and religious monuments. Egypt has witnessed two revolutions in less than 60 years; both had an impact on its architectural heritage. In this paper, the authors aim to review legal and policy framework to protect the cultural heritage and present the risk management strategy for cultural heritage in conflict. Through a review of selected international models of devastated architectural heritage in conflict zones and highlighting some of their changes, we can learn from the experiences of other countries to assist towards the development of a methodology to halt the plundering of architectural heritage. Finally, the paper makes an effort to enhance the formulation of a risk management strategy for protection and conservation of cultural heritage, through which to end the plundering of Egypt’s architectural legacy in the Egyptian community (revolutions, 1952 and 2011); and by presenting to its surrounding community the benefits derived from maintaining it.

Keywords: cultural heritage, legal regulation, risk management, preservation

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Authors: Fahad Al Beyahi, Justin Thomas, Md Mamunur Rashid

Abstract:

Various definitions of digital well-being have emerged in recent years, most of which center on the impacts -beneficial and detrimental- of digital technology on health and well-being (psychological, social, and financial). Other definitions go further, emphasizing the attainment of balance, viewing digital well-being as wholly subjective, the individual’s perception of optimal balance between the benefits and ills associated with online connectivity. Based on this broad conceptualization of digital well-being, we undertook a global survey measuring various dimensions of this emerging construct. The survey was administered across 35 nations and 7 world regions, with 1000 participants within each territory (N= 35000). Along with attitudinal, behavioral, and sociodemographic variables, the survey included measures of depression, anxiety, problematic social media use, gaming disorder, and other relevant metrics. Coupled with nation-level policy audits, these data were used to create a multinational (global) digital well-being index. Nations are ranked based on various dimensions of digital well-being, and predictive models are used to identify resilience and risk factors for problem technology use. In this paper, we will discuss key findings from the survey and the index. This work can inform public policy and shape our responses to the emerging implications of lives increasingly lived online and interconnected with digital technology.

Keywords: technology, health, behavioral addiction, digital wellbeing

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Authors: Saima Nasreen, Uzaira Rafique, Shery Ehrman, Muhammad Aqeel Ashraf

Abstract:

The release of heavy metals into the environment is a potential threat to water and soil quality as well as to plant, animal and human health. In current research work, organically functionalized mesoporous silicates (MSU-H) were prepared by the co-condensation between sodium silicate and oregano alkoxysilanes in the presence of the nonionic surfactant triblock copolymer P104. The surfactant was used as a template for improving the porosity of the hybrid gels. Synthesized materials were characterized by TEM, FT-IR, SEM/EDX, TG, surface area analysis. The surface morphology and textural properties of such materials varied with various kinds of groups in the channels. In this study, removal of some heavy metals ions from aqueous solution by adsorption process was investigated. Batch adsorption studies show that the adsorption capacity of metal ions on the functionalized silicates is more than that on pure MSU-H. Data shows adsorption on synthesized materials is a time efficient process, suggesting adsorption on external surface as well as the mesoporous process. Adsorption models of Langmuir, Freundlich, and Temkin depicted equal goodness for all adsorbents, whereas pseudo 2nd order kinetics is in best agreement with experimental data.

Keywords: heavy metals, mesoporous silica, hybrid, adsorption, freundlich, langmuir, temkin

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Authors: Arias Fernando, Juan Bojórquez, Edén Bojórquez, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar, Fernando de J. Velarde, Robespierre Chávez, J. Martin Leal, Victor Baca

Abstract:

The present study focuses on the optimization of different structural systems employed in tall steel buildings, with a specific focus on the city of Acapulco, Guerrero, a region known for its high seismic activity. Using the spectral modal method, analyses were conducted to assess the ability of these buildings to withstand seismic forces and other external loads. After performing a detailed analysis of various models, the results were compared based on various engineering parameters, including maximum interstory drift, base shear, displacements, and the total weight of the structures, the latter being considered as an estimate of the cost of the proposed systems. The findings of this study indicate that steel frames stand out as a viable option for tall buildings in question. However, areas of potential improvement were identified, suggesting opportunities for further optimization of the design and seismic resistance of these structures. This study provides a deep and insightful perspective on the optimization of structural systems in tall steel buildings, offering valuable information for engineers and professionals in the field involved in similar projects.

Keywords: high seismic zone, irregular buildings, optimization design, steel buildings

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Authors: S. Kamil Akin, Turgut Acikara

Abstract:

In recent years the world and our country has experienced several explosion events occurred due to terrorist attacks and accidents. In these explosion events many people have lost their lives and many buildings have been damaged. If structures were designed taking the blast loads into account, these results may not have happened or the casualties would have been less. In this thesis analysis of the protection walls have been conducted to prevent the building damage from blast loads. These analyzes was carried out for two different types of wall, concrete and reinforced concrete. Analyses were carried out on four different thicknesses of each wall element. In each wall element the stresses and displacements of the exposed surface due to the detonation charge has been calculated. The limit shear stress and displacement of the wall element according to their material properties has been taken into account. As the result of the analyses the standoff distances and TNT equivalent amount has been determined. According to equivalent TNT amounts and standoff distances the structural response of the protective wall elements has been observed. These structural responses have been observed by ABAQUS finite element package. Explosion loads were brought into effect to the protective wall element models by using the ABAQUS / CONWEP.

Keywords: blast loading, blast wave, TNT equivalent method, CONWEP, finite element analysis, detonation

Procedia PDF Downloads 439