Search results for: temporal and spatial variation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5162

Search results for: temporal and spatial variation

332 Slope Stability and Landslides Hazard Analysis, Limitations of Existing Approaches, and a New Direction

Authors: Alisawi Alaa T., Collins P. E. F.

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The analysis and evaluation of slope stability and landslide hazards are landslide hazards are critically important in civil engineering projects and broader considerations of safety. The level of slope stability risk should be identified due to its significant and direct financial and safety effects. Slope stability hazard analysis is performed considering static and/or dynamic loading circumstances. To reduce and/or prevent the failure hazard caused by landslides, a sophisticated and practical hazard analysis method using advanced constitutive modeling should be developed and linked to an effective solution that corresponds to the specific type of slope stability and landslides failure risk. Previous studies on slope stability analysis methods identify the failure mechanism and its corresponding solution. The commonly used approaches include used approaches include limit equilibrium methods, empirical approaches for rock slopes (e.g., slope mass rating and Q-slope), finite element or finite difference methods, and district element codes. This study presents an overview and evaluation of these analysis techniques. Contemporary source materials are used to examine these various methods on the basis of hypotheses, the factor of safety estimation, soil types, load conditions, and analysis conditions and limitations. Limit equilibrium methods play a key role in assessing the level of slope stability hazard. The slope stability safety level can be defined by identifying the equilibrium of the shear stress and shear strength. The slope is considered stable when the movement resistance forces are greater than those that drive the movement with a factor of safety (ratio of the resistance of the resistance of the driving forces) that is greater than 1.00. However, popular and practical methods, including limit equilibrium approaches, are not effective when the slope experiences complex failure mechanisms, such as progressive failure, liquefaction, internal deformation, or creep. The present study represents the first episode of an ongoing project that involves the identification of the types of landslides hazards, assessment of the level of slope stability hazard, development of a sophisticated and practical hazard analysis method, linkage of the failure type of specific landslides conditions to the appropriate solution and application of an advanced computational method for mapping the slope stability properties in the United Kingdom, and elsewhere through geographical information system (GIS) and inverse distance weighted spatial interpolation(IDW) technique. This study investigates and assesses the different assesses the different analysis and solution techniques to enhance the knowledge on the mechanism of slope stability and landslides hazard analysis and determine the available solutions for each potential landslide failure risk.

Keywords: slope stability, finite element analysis, hazard analysis, landslides hazard

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331 Coastal Vulnerability Index and Its Projection for Odisha Coast, East Coast of India

Authors: Bishnupriya Sahoo, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Tropical cyclone is one among the worst natural hazards that results in a trail of destruction causing enormous damage to life, property, and coastal infrastructures. In a global perspective, the Indian Ocean is considered as one of the cyclone prone basins in the world. Specifically, the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal is higher compared to the Arabian Sea. Out of the four maritime states in the East coast of India, Odisha is highly susceptible to tropical cyclone landfall. Historical records clearly decipher the fact that the frequency of cyclones have reduced in this basin. However, in the recent decades, the intensity and size of tropical cyclones have increased. This is a matter of concern as the risk and vulnerability level of Odisha coast exposed to high wind speed and gusts during cyclone landfall have increased. In this context, there is a need to assess and evaluate the severity of coastal risk, area of exposure under risk, and associated vulnerability with a higher dimension in a multi-risk perspective. Changing climate can result in the emergence of a new hazard and vulnerability over a region with differential spatial and socio-economic impact. Hence there is a need to have coastal vulnerability projections in a changing climate scenario. With this motivation, the present study attempts to estimate the destructiveness of tropical cyclones based on Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for those cyclones that made landfall along Odisha coast that exhibits an increasing trend based on historical data. The study also covers the futuristic scenarios of integral coastal vulnerability based on the trends in PDI for the Odisha coast. This study considers 11 essential and important parameters; the cyclone intensity, storm surge, onshore inundation, mean tidal range, continental shelf slope, topo-graphic elevation onshore, rate of shoreline change, maximum wave height, relative sea level rise, rainfall distribution, and coastal geomorphology. The study signifies that over a decadal scale, the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) depends largely on the incremental change in variables such as cyclone intensity, storm surge, and associated inundation. In addition, the study also performs a critical analysis on the modulation of PDI on storm surge and inundation characteristics for the entire coastal belt of Odisha State. Interestingly, the study brings to light that a linear correlation exists between the storm-tide with PDI. The trend analysis of PDI and its projection for coastal Odisha have direct practical applications in effective coastal zone management and vulnerability assessment.

Keywords: Bay of Bengal, coastal vulnerability index, power dissipation index, tropical cyclone

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330 Origins: An Interpretive History of MMA Design Studio’s Exhibition for the 2023 Venice Biennale

Authors: Jonathan A. Noble

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‘Origins’ is an exhibition designed and installed by MMA Design Studio, at the 2023 Venice Biennale. The instillation formed part of the ‘Dangerous Liaisons’ group exhibition at the Arsenale building. An immersive experience was created for those who visited, where video projection and the bodies of visitors interacted with the scene. Designed by South African architect, Mphethi Morojele – founder and owner of MMA – the primary inspiration for ‘Origins’ was the recent discovery by Professor Karim Sadr in 2019, of a substantial Tswana settlement. Situated in present day Suikerbosrand Nature Reserve, some 45km south of Johannesburg, this precolonial city named Kweneng, has been dated back to the fifteenth century. This remarkable discovery was achieved thanks to advanced aerial, LiDAR scanning technology, which was used to capture the traces of Kweneng, spanning a terrain of some 10km long and 2km wide. Discovered by light (LiDAR) and exhibited through light, Origins presents a simulated experience of Kweneng. The presentation of Kweneng was achieved primarily though video, with a circular projection onto the floor of an animated LiDAR data sequence, and onto the walls a filmed dance sequence choreographed to embody the architectural, spatial and symbolic significance of Kweneng. This paper documents the design process that was involved in the conceptualization, development and final realization of this noteworthy exhibition, with an elucidation upon key social and cultural questions pertaining to precolonial heritage, reimagined histories and postcolonial identity. Periods of change and of social awakening sometimes spark an interest in questions of origin, of cultural lineage and belonging – and which certainly is the case for contemporary, post-Apartheid South Africa. Researching this paper has required primary study of MMA Design Studio’s project archive, including various proposals and other design related documents, conceptual design sketches, architectural drawings and photographs. This material is supported by the authors first-hand interviews with Morejele and others who were involved, especially with respect to the choreography of the interpretive dance, LiDAR visualization techniques and video production that informed the simulated, immersive experience at the exhibition. Presenting a ‘dangerous liaison’ between architecture and dance, Origins looks into the distant past to frame contemporary questions pertaining to intangible heritage, animism and embodiment through architecture and dance – considerations which are required “to survive the future”, says Morojele.

Keywords: architecture and dance, Kweneng, MMA design studio, origins, Venice Biennale

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329 An Integrated Framework for Wind-Wave Study in Lakes

Authors: Moien Mojabi, Aurelien Hospital, Daniel Potts, Chris Young, Albert Leung

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The wave analysis is an integral part of the hydrotechnical assessment carried out during the permitting and design phases for coastal structures, such as marinas. This analysis aims in quantifying: i) the Suitability of the coastal structure design against Small Craft Harbour wave tranquility safety criterion; ii) Potential environmental impacts of the structure (e.g., effect on wave, flow, and sediment transport); iii) Mooring and dock design and iv) Requirements set by regulatory agency’s (e.g., WSA section 11 application). While a complex three-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling approach can be applied on large-scale projects, the need for an efficient and reliable wave analysis method suitable for smaller scale marina projects was identified. As a result, Tetra Tech has developed and applied an integrated analysis framework (hereafter TT approach), which takes the advantage of the state-of-the-art numerical models while preserving the level of simplicity that fits smaller scale projects. The present paper aims to describe the TT approach and highlight the key advantages of using this integrated framework in lake marina projects. The core of this methodology is made by integrating wind, water level, bathymetry, and structure geometry data. To respond to the needs of specific projects, several add-on modules have been added to the core of the TT approach. The main advantages of this method over the simplified analytical approaches are i) Accounting for the proper physics of the lake through the modelling of the entire lake (capturing real lake geometry) instead of a simplified fetch approach; ii) Providing a more realistic representation of the waves by modelling random waves instead of monochromatic waves; iii) Modelling wave-structure interaction (e.g. wave transmission/reflection application for floating structures and piles amongst others); iv) Accounting for wave interaction with the lakebed (e.g. bottom friction, refraction, and breaking); v) Providing the inputs for flow and sediment transport assessment at the project site; vi) Taking in consideration historical and geographical variations of the wind field; and vii) Independence of the scale of the reservoir under study. Overall, in comparison with simplified analytical approaches, this integrated framework provides a more realistic and reliable estimation of wave parameters (and its spatial distribution) in lake marinas, leading to a realistic hydrotechnical assessment accessible to any project size, from the development of a new marina to marina expansion and pile replacement. Tetra Tech has successfully utilized this approach since many years in the Okanagan area.

Keywords: wave modelling, wind-wave, extreme value analysis, marina

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328 The Development of Local-Global Perceptual Bias across Cultures: Examining the Effects of Gender, Education, and Urbanisation

Authors: Helen J. Spray, Karina J. Linnell

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Local-global bias in adulthood is strongly dependent on environmental factors and a global bias is not the universal characteristic of adult perception it was once thought to be: whilst Western adults typically demonstrate a global bias, Namibian adults living in traditional villages possess a strong local bias. Furthermore, environmental effects on local-global bias have been shown to be highly gender-specific; whereas urbanisation promoted a global bias in urbanised Namibian women but not men, education promoted a global bias in urbanised Namibian men but not women. Adult populations, however, provide only a snapshot of the gene-environment interactions which shape perceptual bias. Yet, to date, there has been little work on the development of local-global bias across environmental settings. In the current study, local-global bias was assessed using a similarity-matching task with Navon figures in children aged between 4 and 15 years from across three populations: traditional Namibians, urban Namibians, and urban British. For the two Namibian groups, measures of urbanisation and education were obtained. Data were subjected to both between-group and within-group analyses. Between-group analyses compared developmental trajectories across population and gender. These analyses revealed a global bias from even as early as 4 in the British sample, and showed that the developmental onset of a global bias is not fixed. Urbanised Namibian children ultimately developed a global bias that was indistinguishable from British children; however, a global bias did not emerge until much later in development. For all populations, the greatest developmental effects were observed directly following the onset of formal education. No overall gender effects were observed; however, there was a significant gender by age interaction which was difficult to reconcile with existing biological-level accounts of gender differences in the development of local-global bias. Within-group analyses compared the effects of urbanisation and education on local-global bias for traditional and urban Namibian boys and girls separately. For both traditional and urban boys, education mediated all effects of age and urbanisation; however, this was not the case for girls. Traditional Namibian girls retained a local bias regardless of age, education, or urbanisation, and in urbanised girls, the development of a global bias was not attributable to any one factor specifically. These results are broadly consistent with aforementioned findings that education promoted a global bias in urbanised Namibian men but not women. The development of local-global bias does not follow a fixed trajectory but is subject to environmental control. Understanding how variability in the development of local-global bias might arise, particularly in the context of gender, may have far-reaching implications. For example, a number of educationally important cognitive functions (e.g., spatial ability) are known to show consistent gender differences in childhood and local-global bias may mediate some of these effects. With education becoming an increasingly prevalent force across much of the developing world it will be important to understand the processes that underpin its effects and their implications.

Keywords: cross-cultural, development, education, gender, local-global bias, perception, urbanisation, urbanization

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327 Densities and Volumetric Properties of {Difurylmethane + [(C5 – C8) N-Alkane or an Amide]} Binary Systems at 293.15, 298.15 and 303.15 K: Modelling Excess Molar Volumes by Prigogine-Flory-Patterson Theory

Authors: Belcher Fulele, W. A. A. Ddamba

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Study of solvent systems contributes to the understanding of intermolecular interactions that occur in binary mixtures. These interactions involves among others strong dipole-dipole interactions and weak van de Waals interactions which are of significant application in pharmaceuticals, solvent extractions, design of reactors and solvent handling and storage processes. Binary mixtures of solvents can thus be used as a model to interpret thermodynamic behavior that occur in a real solution mixture. Densities of pure DFM, n-alkanes (n-pentane, n-hexane, n-heptane and n-octane) and amides (N-methylformamide, N-ethylformamide, N,N-dimethylformamide and N,N-dimethylacetamide) as well as their [DFM + ((C5-C8) n-alkane or amide)] binary mixtures over the entire composition range, have been reported at temperature 293.15, 298.15 and 303.15 K and atmospheric pressure. These data has been used to derive the thermodynamic properties: the excess molar volume of solution, apparent molar volumes, excess partial molar volumes, limiting excess partial molar volumes, limiting partial molar volumes of each component of a binary mixture. The results are discussed in terms of possible intermolecular interactions and structural effects that occur in the binary mixtures. The variation of excess molar volume with DFM composition for the [DFM + (C5-C7) n-alkane] binary mixture exhibit a sigmoidal behavior while for the [DFM + n-octane] binary system, positive deviation of excess molar volume function was observed over the entire composition range. For each of the [DFM + (C5-C8) n-alkane] binary mixture, the excess molar volume exhibited a fall with increase in temperature. The excess molar volume for each of [DFM + (NMF or NEF or DMF or DMA)] binary system was negative over the entire DFM composition at each of the three temperatures investigated. The negative deviations in excess molar volume values follow the order: DMA > DMF > NEF > NMF. Increase in temperature has a greater effect on component self-association than it has on complex formation between molecules of components in [DFM + (NMF or NEF or DMF or DMA)] binary mixture which shifts complex formation equilibrium towards complex to give a drop in excess molar volume with increase in temperature. The Prigogine-Flory-Patterson model has been applied at 298.15 K and reveals that the free volume is the most important contributing term to the excess experimental molar volume data for [DFM + (n-pentane or n-octane)] binary system. For [DFM + (NMF or DMF or DMA)] binary mixture, the interactional term and characteristic pressure term contributions are the most important contributing terms in describing the sign of experimental excess molar volume. The mixture systems contributed to the understanding of interactions of polar solvents with proteins (amides) with non-polar solvents (alkanes) in biological systems.

Keywords: alkanes, amides, excess thermodynamic parameters, Prigogine-Flory-Patterson model

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326 A Proper Continuum-Based Reformulation of Current Problems in Finite Strain Plasticity

Authors: Ladislav Écsi, Roland Jančo

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Contemporary multiplicative plasticity models assume that the body's intermediate configuration consists of an assembly of locally unloaded neighbourhoods of material particles that cannot be reassembled together to give the overall stress-free intermediate configuration since the neighbourhoods are not necessarily compatible with each other. As a result, the plastic deformation gradient, an inelastic component in the multiplicative split of the deformation gradient, cannot be integrated, and the material particle moves from the initial configuration to the intermediate configuration without a position vector and a plastic displacement field when plastic flow occurs. Such behaviour is incompatible with the continuum theory and the continuum physics of elastoplastic deformations, and the related material models can hardly be denoted as truly continuum-based. The paper presents a proper continuum-based reformulation of current problems in finite strain plasticity. It will be shown that the incompatible neighbourhoods in real material are modelled by the product of the plastic multiplier and the yield surface normal when the plastic flow is defined in the current configuration. The incompatible plastic factor can also model the neighbourhoods as the solution of the system of differential equations whose coefficient matrix is the above product when the plastic flow is defined in the intermediate configuration. The incompatible tensors replace the compatible spatial plastic velocity gradient in the former case or the compatible plastic deformation gradient in the latter case in the definition of the plastic flow rule. They act as local imperfections but have the same position vector as the compatible plastic velocity gradient or the compatible plastic deformation gradient in the definitions of the related plastic flow rules. The unstressed intermediate configuration, the unloaded configuration after the plastic flow, where the residual stresses have been removed, can always be calculated by integrating either the compatible plastic velocity gradient or the compatible plastic deformation gradient. However, the corresponding plastic displacement field becomes permanent with both elastic and plastic components. The residual strains and stresses originate from the difference between the compatible plastic/permanent displacement field gradient and the prescribed incompatible second-order tensor characterizing the plastic flow in the definition of the plastic flow rule, which becomes an assignment statement rather than an equilibrium equation. The above also means that the elastic and plastic factors in the multiplicative split of the deformation gradient are, in reality, gradients and that there is no problem with the continuum physics of elastoplastic deformations. The formulation is demonstrated in a numerical example using the regularized Mooney-Rivlin material model and modified equilibrium statements where the intermediate configuration is calculated, whose analysis results are compared with the identical material model using the current equilibrium statements. The advantages and disadvantages of each formulation, including their relationship with multiplicative plasticity, are also discussed.

Keywords: finite strain plasticity, continuum formulation, regularized Mooney-Rivlin material model, compatibility

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325 The Solid-Phase Sensor Systems for Fluorescent and SERS-Recognition of Neurotransmitters for Their Visualization and Determination in Biomaterials

Authors: Irina Veselova, Maria Makedonskaya, Olga Eremina, Alexandr Sidorov, Eugene Goodilin, Tatyana Shekhovtsova

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Such catecholamines as dopamine, norepinephrine, and epinephrine are the principal neurotransmitters in the sympathetic nervous system. Catecholamines and their metabolites are considered to be important markers of socially significant diseases such as atherosclerosis, diabetes, coronary heart disease, carcinogenesis, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. Currently, neurotransmitters can be studied via electrochemical and chromatographic techniques that allow their characterizing and quantification, although these techniques can only provide crude spatial information. Besides, the difficulty of catecholamine determination in biological materials is associated with their low normal concentrations (~ 1 nM) in biomaterials, which may become even one more order lower because of some disorders. In addition, in blood they are rapidly oxidized by monoaminooxidases from thrombocytes and, for this reason, the determination of neurotransmitter metabolism indicators in an organism should be very rapid (15—30 min), especially in critical states. Unfortunately, modern instrumental analysis does not offer a complex solution of this problem: despite its high sensitivity and selectivity, HPLC-MS cannot provide sufficiently rapid analysis, while enzymatic biosensors and immunoassays for the determination of the considered analytes lack sufficient sensitivity and reproducibility. Fluorescent and SERS-sensors remain a compelling technology for approaching the general problem of selective neurotransmitter detection. In recent years, a number of catecholamine sensors have been reported including RNA aptamers, fluorescent ribonucleopeptide (RNP) complexes, and boronic acid based synthetic receptors and the sensor operated in a turn-off mode. In this work we present the fluorescent and SERS turn-on sensor systems based on the bio- or chemorecognizing nanostructured films {chitosan/collagen-Tb/Eu/Cu-nanoparticles-indicator reagents} that provide the selective recognition, visualization, and sensing of the above mentioned catecholamines on the level of nanomolar concentrations in biomaterials (cell cultures, tissue etc.). We have (1) developed optically transparent porous films and gels of chitosan/collagen; (2) ensured functionalization of the surface by molecules-'recognizers' (by impregnation and immobilization of components of the indicator systems: biorecognizing and auxiliary reagents); (3) performed computer simulation for theoretical prediction and interpretation of some properties of the developed materials and obtained analytical signals in biomaterials. We are grateful for the financial support of this research from Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grants no. 15-03-05064 a, and 15-29-01330 ofi_m).

Keywords: biomaterials, fluorescent and SERS-recognition, neurotransmitters, solid-phase turn-on sensor system

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324 Solutions to Reduce CO2 Emissions in Autonomous Robotics

Authors: Antoni Grau, Yolanda Bolea, Alberto Sanfeliu

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Mobile robots can be used in many different applications, including mapping, search, rescue, reconnaissance, hazard detection, and carpet cleaning, exploration, etc. However, they are limited due to their reliance on traditional energy sources such as electricity and oil which cannot always provide a convenient energy source in all situations. In an ever more eco-conscious world, solar energy offers the most environmentally clean option of all energy sources. Electricity presents threats of pollution resulting from its production process, and oil poses a huge threat to the environment. Not only does it pose harm by the toxic emissions (for instance CO2 emissions), it produces the combustion process necessary to produce energy, but there is the ever present risk of oil spillages and damages to ecosystems. Solar energy can help to mitigate carbon emissions by replacing more carbon intensive sources of heat and power. The challenge of this work is to propose the design and the implementation of electric battery recharge stations. Those recharge docks are based on the use of renewable energy such as solar energy (with photovoltaic panels) with the object to reduce the CO2 emissions. In this paper, a comparative study of the CO2 emission productions (from the use of different energy sources: natural gas, gas oil, fuel and solar panels) in the charging process of the Segway PT batteries is carried out. To make the study with solar energy, a photovoltaic panel, and a Buck-Boost DC/DC block has been used. Specifically, the STP005S-12/Db solar panel has been used to carry out our experiments. This module is a 5Wp-photovoltaic (PV) module, configured with 36 monocrystalline cells serially connected. With those elements, a battery recharge station is made to recharge the robot batteries. For the energy storage DC/DC block, a series of ultracapacitors have been used. Due to the variation of the PV panel with the temperature and irradiation, and the non-integer behavior of the ultracapacitors as well as the non-linearities of the whole system, authors have been used a fractional control method to achieve that solar panels supply the maximum allowed power to recharge the robots in the lesser time. Greenhouse gas emissions for production of electricity vary due to regional differences in source fuel. The impact of an energy technology on the climate can be characterised by its carbon emission intensity, a measure of the amount of CO2, or CO2 equivalent emitted by unit of energy generated. In our work, the coal is the fossil energy more hazardous, providing a 53% more of gas emissions than natural gas and a 30% more than fuel. Moreover, it is remarkable that existing fossil fuel technologies produce high carbon emission intensity through the combustion of carbon-rich fuels, whilst renewable technologies such as solar produce little or no emissions during operation, but may incur emissions during manufacture. The solar energy thus can help to mitigate carbon emissions.

Keywords: autonomous robots, CO2 emissions, DC/DC buck-boost, solar energy

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323 Clastic Sequence Stratigraphy of Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous Formations of Jaisalmer Basin, Rajasthan

Authors: Himanshu Kumar Gupta

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The Jaisalmer Basin is one of the parts of the Rajasthan basin in northwestern India. The presence of five major unconformities/hiatuses of varying span i.e. at the top of Archean basement, Cambrian, Jurassic, Cretaceous, and Eocene have created the foundation for constructing a sequence stratigraphic framework. Based on basin formative tectonic events and their impact on sedimentation processes three first-order sequences have been identified in Rajasthan Basin. These are Proterozoic-Early Cambrian rift sequence, Permian to Middle-Late Eocene shelf sequence and Pleistocene - Recent sequence related to Himalayan Orogeny. The Permian to Middle Eocene I order sequence is further subdivided into three-second order sequences i.e. Permian to Late Jurassic II order sequence, Early to Late Cretaceous II order sequence and Paleocene to Middle-Late Eocene II order sequence. In this study, Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous sequence was identified and log-based interpretation of smaller order T-R cycles have been carried out. A log profile from eastern margin to western margin (up to Shahgarh depression) has been taken. The depositional environment penetrated by the wells interpreted from log signatures gave three major facies association. The blocky and coarsening upward (funnel shape), the blocky and fining upward (bell shape) and the erratic (zig-zag) facies representing distributary mouth bar, distributary channel and marine mud facies respectively. Late Jurassic Formation (Baisakhi-Bhadasar) and Early Cretaceous Formation (Pariwar) shows a lesser number of T-R cycles in shallower and higher number of T-R cycles in deeper bathymetry. Shallowest well has 3 T-R cycles in Baisakhi-Bhadasar and 2 T-R cycles in Pariwar, whereas deeper well has 4 T-R cycles in Baisakhi-Bhadasar and 8 T-R cycles in Pariwar Formation. The Maximum Flooding surfaces observed from the stratigraphy analysis indicate major shale break (high shale content). The study area is dominated by the alternation of shale and sand lithologies, which occurs in an approximate ratio of 70:30. A seismo-geological cross section has been prepared to understand the stratigraphic thickness variation and structural disposition of the strata. The formations are quite thick to the west, the thickness of which reduces as we traverse towards the east. The folded and the faulted strata indicated the compressional tectonics followed by the extensional tectonics. Our interpretation is supported with seismic up to second order sequence indicates - Late Jurassic sequence is a Highstand Systems Tract (Baisakhi - Bhadasar formations), and the Early Cretaceous sequence is Regressive to Lowstand System Tract (Pariwar Formation).

Keywords: Jaisalmer Basin, sequence stratigraphy, system tract, T-R cycle

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322 Teachers’ Instructional Decisions When Teaching Geometric Transformations

Authors: Lisa Kasmer

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Teachers’ instructional decisions shape the structure and content of mathematics lessons and influence the mathematics that students are given the opportunity to learn. Therefore, it is important to better understand how teachers make instructional decisions and thus find new ways to help practicing and future teachers give their students a more effective and robust learning experience. Understanding the relationship between teachers’ instructional decisions and their goals, resources, and orientations (beliefs) is important given the heightened focus on geometric transformations in the middle school mathematics curriculum. This work is significant as the development and support of current and future teachers need more effective ways to teach geometry to their students. The following research questions frame this study: (1) As middle school mathematics teachers plan and enact instruction related to teaching transformations, what thinking processes do they engage in to make decisions about teaching transformations with or without a coordinate system and (2) How do the goals, resources and orientations of these teachers impact their instructional decisions and reveal about their understanding of teaching transformations? Teachers and students alike struggle with understanding transformations; many teachers skip or hurriedly teach transformations at the end of the school year. However, transformations are an important mathematical topic as this topic supports students’ understanding of geometric and spatial reasoning. Geometric transformations are a foundational concept in mathematics, not only for understanding congruence and similarity but for proofs, algebraic functions, and calculus etc. Geometric transformations also underpin the secondary mathematics curriculum, as features of transformations transfer to other areas of mathematics. Teachers’ instructional decisions in terms of goals, orientations, and resources that support these instructional decisions were analyzed using open-coding. Open-coding is recognized as an initial first step in qualitative analysis, where comparisons are made, and preliminary categories are considered. Initial codes and categories from current research on teachers’ thinking processes that are related to the decisions they make while planning and reflecting on the lessons were also noted. Surfacing ideas and additional themes common across teachers while seeking patterns, were compared and analyzed. Finally, attributes of teachers’ goals, orientations and resources were identified in order to begin to build a picture of the reasoning behind their instructional decisions. These categories became the basis for the organization and conceptualization of the data. Preliminary results suggest that teachers often rely on their own orientations about teaching geometric transformations. These beliefs are underpinned by the teachers’ own mathematical knowledge related to teaching transformations. When a teacher does not have a robust understanding of transformations, they are limited by this lack of knowledge. These shortcomings impact students’ opportunities to learn, and thus disadvantage their own understanding of transformations. Teachers’ goals are also limited by their paucity of knowledge regarding transformations, as these goals do not fully represent the range of comprehension a teacher needs to teach this topic well.

Keywords: coordinate plane, geometric transformations, instructional decisions, middle school mathematics

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321 Characterization of Thin Woven Composites Used in Printed Circuit Boards by Combining Numerical and Experimental Approaches

Authors: Gautier Girard, Marion Martiny, Sebastien Mercier, Mohamad Jrad, Mohamed-Slim Bahi, Laurent Bodin, Francois Lechleiter, David Nevo, Sophie Dareys

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Reliability of electronic devices has always been of highest interest for Aero-MIL and space applications. In any electronic device, Printed Circuit Board (PCB), providing interconnection between components, is a key for reliability. During the last decades, PCB technologies evolved to sustain and/or fulfill increased original equipment manufacturers requirements and specifications, higher densities and better performances, faster time to market and longer lifetime, newer material and mixed buildups. From the very beginning of the PCB industry up to recently, qualification, experiments and trials, and errors were the most popular methods to assess system (PCB) reliability. Nowadays OEM, PCB manufacturers and scientists are working together in a close relationship in order to develop predictive models for PCB reliability and lifetime. To achieve that goal, it is fundamental to characterize precisely base materials (laminates, electrolytic copper, …), in order to understand failure mechanisms and simulate PCB aging under environmental constraints by means of finite element method for example. The laminates are woven composites and have thus an orthotropic behaviour. The in-plane properties can be measured by combining classical uniaxial testing and digital image correlation. Nevertheless, the out-of-plane properties cannot be evaluated due to the thickness of the laminate (a few hundred of microns). It has to be noted that the knowledge of the out-of-plane properties is fundamental to investigate the lifetime of high density printed circuit boards. A homogenization method combining analytical and numerical approaches has been developed in order to obtain the complete elastic orthotropic behaviour of a woven composite from its precise 3D internal structure and its experimentally measured in-plane elastic properties. Since the mechanical properties of the resin surrounding the fibres are unknown, an inverse method is proposed to estimate it. The methodology has been applied to one laminate used in hyperfrequency spatial applications in order to get its elastic orthotropic behaviour at different temperatures in the range [-55°C; +125°C]. Next; numerical simulations of a plated through hole in a double sided PCB are performed. Results show the major importance of the out-of-plane properties and the temperature dependency of these properties on the lifetime of a printed circuit board. Acknowledgements—The support of the French ANR agency through the Labcom program ANR-14-LAB7-0003-01, support of CNES, Thales Alenia Space and Cimulec is acknowledged.

Keywords: homogenization, orthotropic behaviour, printed circuit board, woven composites

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320 The Impact of Speech Style on the Production of Spanish Vowels by Spanish-English Bilinguals and Spanish Monolinguals

Authors: Vivian Franco

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There has been a great deal of research about vowel production of second language learners of Spanish, vowel variation across Spanish dialects, and more recently, research related to Spanish heritage speakers’ vowel production based on speech style. However, there is little investigation reported on Spanish heritage speakers’ vowel production in regard to task modality by incorporating own comparison groups of monolinguals and late bilinguals. Thus, the present study investigates the influence of speech style on Spanish heritage speakers’ vowel production by comparing Spanish-English early and late bilinguals and Spanish monolinguals. The study was guided by the following research question: How do early bilinguals (heritage speakers) differ/relate to advanced L2 speakers of Spanish (late bilinguals) and Spanish monolinguals in their vowel quality (acoustic distribution) and quantity (duration) based on speech style? The participants were a total of 11 speakers of Spanish: 7 early Spanish-English bilinguals with a similar linguistic background (simultaneous bilinguals of the second generation); 2 advanced L2 speakers of Spanish; and 2 Spanish monolinguals from Mexico. The study consisted of two tasks. The first one adopted a semi-spontaneous style by a solicited narration of life experiences and a description of a favorite movie with the purpose to collect spontaneous speech. The second task was a reading activity in which the participants read two paragraphs of a Mexican literary essay 'La nuez.' This task aimed to obtain a more controlled speech style. From this study, it can be concluded that early bilinguals and monolinguals show a smaller formant vowel space overall compared to the late bilinguals in both speech styles. In terms of formant values by stress, the early bilinguals and the late bilinguals resembled in the semi-spontaneous speech style as their unstressed vowel space overlapped with that of the unstressed vowels different from the monolinguals who displayed a slightly reduced unstressed vowel space. For the controlled data, the early bilinguals were similar to the monolinguals as their stressed and unstressed vowel spaces overlapped in comparison to the late bilinguals who showed a more clear reduction of unstressed vowel space. In regard to stress, the monolinguals revealed longer vowel duration overall. However, findings of duration by stress showed that the early bilinguals and the monolinguals remained stable with shorter values of unstressed vowels in the semi-spontaneous data and longer duration in the controlled data when compared to the late bilinguals who displayed opposite results. These findings suggest an implication for Spanish heritage speakers and L2 Spanish vowels research as it has been frequently argued that Spanish bilinguals differ from the Spanish monolinguals by their vowel reduction and centralized vowel space influenced by English. However, some Spanish varieties are characterized by vowel reduction especially in certain phonetic contexts so that some vowels present more weakening than others. Consequently, it would not be conclusive to affirm an English influence on the Spanish of these bilinguals.

Keywords: Spanish-English bilinguals, Spanish monolinguals, spontaneous and controlled speech, vowel production.

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319 Peak Constituent Fluxes from Small Arctic Rivers Generated by Late Summer Episodic Precipitation Events

Authors: Shawn G. Gallaher, Lilli E. Hirth

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As permafrost thaws with the continued warming of the Alaskan North Slope, a progressively thicker active thaw layer is evidently releasing previously sequestered nutrients, metals, and particulate matter exposed to fluvial transport. In this study, we estimate material fluxes on the North Slope of Alaska during the 2019-2022 melt seasons. The watershed of the Alaskan North Slope can be categorized into three regions: mountains, tundra, and coastal plain. Precipitation and discharge data were collected from repeat visits to 14 sample sites for biogeochemical surface water samples, 7 point discharge measurements, 3 project deployed meteorology stations, and 2 U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) continuous discharge observation sites. The timing, intensity, and spatial distribution of precipitation determine the material flux composition in the Sagavanirktok and surrounding bodies of water, with geogenic constituents (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC)) expected from mountain flushed events and biogenic constituents (e.g., dissolved organic compound (DOC)) expected from transitional tundra precipitation events. Project goals include connecting late summer precipitation events to peak discharge to determine the responses of the watershed to localized atmospheric forcing. Field study measurements showed widespread precipitation in August 2019, generating an increase in total suspended solids, dissolved organic carbon, and iron fluxes from the tundra, shifting the main-stem mountain river biogeochemistry toward tundra source characteristics typically only observed during the spring floods. Intuitively, a large-scale precipitation event (as defined by this study as exceeding 12.5 mm of precipitation on a single observation day) would dilute a body of water; however, in this study, concentrations increased with higher discharge responses on several occasions. These large-scale precipitation events continue to produce peak constituent fluxes as the thaw layer increases in depth and late summer precipitation increases, evidenced by 6 large-scale events in July 2022 alone. This increase in late summer events is in sharp contrast to the 3 or fewer large events in July in each of the last 10 years. Changes in precipitation intensity, timing, and location have introduced late summer peak constituent flux events previously confined to the spring freshet.

Keywords: Alaska North Slope, arctic rivers, material flux, precipitation

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318 Investigating the Flow Physics within Vortex-Shockwave Interactions

Authors: Frederick Ferguson, Dehua Feng, Yang Gao

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No doubt, current CFD tools have a great many technical limitations, and active research is being done to overcome these limitations. Current areas of limitations include vortex-dominated flows, separated flows, and turbulent flows. In general, turbulent flows are unsteady solutions to the fluid dynamic equations, and instances of these solutions can be computed directly from the equations. One of the approaches commonly implemented is known as the ‘direct numerical simulation’, DNS. This approach requires a spatial grid that is fine enough to capture the smallest length scale of the turbulent fluid motion. This approach is called the ‘Kolmogorov scale’ model. It is of interest to note that the Kolmogorov scale model must be captured throughout the domain of interest and at a correspondingly small-time step. In typical problems of industrial interest, the ratio of the length scale of the domain to the Kolmogorov length scale is so great that the required grid set becomes prohibitively large. As a result, the available computational resources are usually inadequate for DNS related tasks. At this time in its development, DNS is not applicable to industrial problems. In this research, an attempt is made to develop a numerical technique that is capable of delivering DNS quality solutions at the scale required by the industry. To date, this technique has delivered preliminary results for both steady and unsteady, viscous and inviscid, compressible and incompressible, and for both high and low Reynolds number flow fields that are very accurate. Herein, it is proposed that the Integro-Differential Scheme (IDS) be applied to a set of vortex-shockwave interaction problems with the goal of investigating the nonstationary physics within the resulting interaction regions. In the proposed paper, the IDS formulation and its numerical error capability will be described. Further, the IDS will be used to solve the inviscid and viscous Burgers equation, with the goal of analyzing their solutions over a considerable length of time, thus demonstrating the unsteady capabilities of the IDS. Finally, the IDS will be used to solve a set of fluid dynamic problems related to flow that involves highly vortex interactions. Plans are to solve the following problems: the travelling wave and vortex problems over considerable lengths of time, the normal shockwave–vortex interaction problem for low supersonic conditions and the reflected oblique shock–vortex interaction problem. The IDS solutions obtained in each of these solutions will be explored further in efforts to determine the distributed density gradients and vorticity, as well as the Q-criterion. Parametric studies will be conducted to determine the effects of the Mach number on the intensity of vortex-shockwave interactions.

Keywords: vortex dominated flows, shockwave interactions, high Reynolds number, integro-differential scheme

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317 Educational Infrastructure a Barrier for Teaching and Learning Architecture

Authors: Alejandra Torres-Landa López

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Introduction: Can architecture students be creative in spaces conformed by an educational infrastructure build with paradigms of the past?, this question and others related are answered in this paper as it presents the PhD research: An anthropic conflict in Mexican Higher Education Institutes, problems and challenges of the educational infrastructure in teaching and learning History of Architecture. This research was finished in 2013 and is one of the first studies conducted nationwide in Mexico that analysis the educational infrastructure impact in learning architecture; its objective was to identify which elements of the educational infrastructure of Mexican Higher Education Institutes where architects are formed, hinder or contribute to the teaching and learning of History of Architecture; how and why it happens. The methodology: A mixed methodology was used combining quantitative and qualitative analysis. Different resources and strategies for data collection were used, such as questionnaires for students and teachers, interviews to architecture research experts, direct observations in Architecture classes, among others; the data collected was analyses using SPSS and MAXQDA. The veracity of the quantitative data was supported by the Cronbach’s Alpha Coefficient, obtaining a 0.86, figure that gives the data enough support. All the above enabled to certify the anthropic conflict in which Mexican Universities are. Major findings of the study: Although some of findings were probably not unknown, they haven’t been systematized and analyzed with the depth to which it’s done in this research. So, it can be said, that the educational infrastructure of most of the Higher Education Institutes studied, is a barrier to the educational process, some of the reasons are: the little morphological variation of space, the inadequate control of lighting, noise, temperature, equipment and furniture, the poor or none accessibility for disable people; as well as the absence, obsolescence and / or insufficiency of information technologies are some of the issues that generate an anthropic conflict understanding it as the trouble that teachers and students have to relate between them, in order to achieve significant learning). It is clear that most of the educational infrastructure of Mexican Higher Education Institutes is anchored to paradigms of the past; it seems that they respond to the previous era of industrialization. The results confirm that the educational infrastructure of Mexican Higher Education Institutes where architects are formed, is perceived as a "closed container" of people and data; infrastructure that becomes a barrier to teaching and learning process. Conclusion: The research results show it's time to change the paradigm in which we conceive the educational infrastructure, it’s time to stop seen it just only as classrooms, workshops, laboratories and libraries, as it must be seen from a constructive, urban, architectural and human point of view, taking into account their different dimensions: physical, technological, documental, social, among others; so the educational infrastructure can become a set of elements that organize and create spaces where ideas and thoughts can be shared; to be a social catalyst where people can interact between each other and with the space itself.

Keywords: educational infrastructure, impact of space in learning architecture outcomes, learning environments, teaching architecture, learning architecture

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316 Life-Cycle Assessment of Residential Buildings: Addressing the Influence of Commuting

Authors: J. Bastos, P. Marques, S. Batterman, F. Freire

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Due to demands of a growing urban population, it is crucial to manage urban development and its associated environmental impacts. While most of the environmental analyses have addressed buildings and transportation separately, both the design and location of a building affect environmental performance and focusing on one or the other can shift impacts and overlook improvement opportunities for more sustainable urban development. Recently, several life-cycle (LC) studies of residential buildings have integrated user transportation, focusing exclusively on primary energy demand and/or greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, most papers considered only private transportation (mainly car). Although it is likely to have the largest share both in terms of use and associated impacts, exploring the variability associated with mode choice is relevant for comprehensive assessments and, eventually, for supporting decision-makers. This paper presents a life-cycle assessment (LCA) of a residential building in Lisbon (Portugal), addressing building construction, use and user transportation (commuting with private and public transportation). Five environmental indicators or categories are considered: (i) non-renewable primary energy (NRE), (ii) greenhouse gas intensity (GHG), (iii) eutrophication (EUT), (iv) acidification (ACID), and (v) ozone layer depletion (OLD). In a first stage, the analysis addresses the overall life-cycle considering the statistical model mix for commuting in the residence location. Then, a comparative analysis compares different available transportation modes to address the influence mode choice variability has on the results. The results highlight the large contribution of transportation to the overall LC results in all categories. NRE and GHG show strong correlation, as the three LC phases contribute with similar shares to both of them: building construction accounts for 6-9%, building use for 44-45%, and user transportation for 48% of the overall results. However, for other impact categories there is a large variation in the relative contribution of each phase. Transport is the most significant phase in OLD (60%); however, in EUT and ACID building use has the largest contribution to the overall LC (55% and 64%, respectively). In these categories, transportation accounts for 31-38%. A comparative analysis was also performed for four alternative transport modes for the household commuting: car, bus, motorcycle, and company/school collective transport. The car has the largest results in all impact categories. When compared to the overall LC with commuting by car, mode choice accounts for a variability of about 35% in NRE, GHG and OLD (the categories where transportation accounted for the largest share of the LC), 24% in EUT and 16% in ACID. NRE and GHG show a strong correlation because all modes have internal combustion engines. The second largest results for NRE, GHG and OLD are associated with commuting by motorcycle; however, for ACID and EUT this mode has better performance than bus and company/school transport. No single transportation mode performed best in all impact categories. Integrated assessments of buildings are needed to avoid shifts of impacts between life-cycle phases and environmental categories, and ultimately to support decision-makers.

Keywords: environmental impacts, LCA, Lisbon, transport

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315 Techno-Economic Analysis of 1,3-Butadiene and ε-Caprolactam Production from C6 Sugars

Authors: Iris Vural Gursel, Jonathan Moncada, Ernst Worrell, Andrea Ramirez

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In order to achieve the transition from a fossil to bio-based economy, biomass needs to replace fossil resources in meeting the world’s energy and chemical needs. This calls for development of biorefinery systems allowing cost-efficient conversion of biomass to chemicals. In biorefinery systems, feedstock is converted to key intermediates called platforms which are converted to wide range of marketable products. The C6 sugars platform stands out due to its unique versatility as precursor for multiple valuable products. Among the different potential routes from C6 sugars to bio-based chemicals, 1,3-butadiene and ε-caprolactam appear to be of great interest. Butadiene is an important chemical for the production of synthetic rubbers, while caprolactam is used in production of nylon-6. In this study, ex-ante techno-economic performance of 1,3-butadiene and ε-caprolactam routes from C6 sugars were assessed. The aim is to provide insight from an early stage of development into the potential of these new technologies, and the bottlenecks and key cost-drivers. Two cases for each product line were analyzed to take into consideration the effect of possible changes on the overall performance of both butadiene and caprolactam production. Conceptual process design for the processes was developed using Aspen Plus based on currently available data from laboratory experiments. Then, operating and capital costs were estimated and an economic assessment was carried out using Net Present Value (NPV) as indicator. Finally, sensitivity analyses on processing capacity and prices was done to take into account possible variations. Results indicate that both processes perform similarly from an energy intensity point of view ranging between 34-50 MJ per kg of main product. However, in terms of processing yield (kg of product per kg of C6 sugar), caprolactam shows higher yield by a factor 1.6-3.6 compared to butadiene. For butadiene production, with the economic parameters used in this study, for both cases studied, a negative NPV (-642 and -647 M€) was attained indicating economic infeasibility. For the caprolactam production, one of the cases also showed economic infeasibility (-229 M€), but the case with the higher caprolactam yield resulted in a positive NPV (67 M€). Sensitivity analysis indicated that the economic performance of caprolactam production can be improved with the increase in capacity (higher C6 sugars intake) reflecting benefits of the economies of scale. Furthermore, humins valorization for heat and power production was considered and found to have a positive effect. Butadiene production was found sensitive to the price of feedstock C6 sugars and product butadiene. However, even at 100% variation of the two parameters, butadiene production remained economically infeasible. Overall, the caprolactam production line shows higher economic potential in comparison to that of butadiene. The results are useful in guiding experimental research and providing direction for further development of bio-based chemicals.

Keywords: bio-based chemicals, biorefinery, C6 sugars, economic analysis, process modelling

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314 Predicting Long-Term Performance of Concrete under Sulfate Attack

Authors: Elakneswaran Yogarajah, Toyoharu Nawa, Eiji Owaki

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Cement-based materials have been using in various reinforced concrete structural components as well as in nuclear waste repositories. The sulfate attack has been an environmental issue for cement-based materials exposed to sulfate bearing groundwater or soils, and it plays an important role in the durability of concrete structures. The reaction between penetrating sulfate ions and cement hydrates can result in swelling, spalling and cracking of cement matrix in concrete. These processes induce a reduction of mechanical properties and a decrease of service life of an affected structure. It has been identified that the precipitation of secondary sulfate bearing phases such as ettringite, gypsum, and thaumasite can cause the damage. Furthermore, crystallization of soluble salts such as sodium sulfate crystals induces degradation due to formation and phase changes. Crystallization of mirabilite (Na₂SO₄:10H₂O) and thenardite (Na₂SO₄) or their phase changes (mirabilite to thenardite or vice versa) due to temperature or sodium sulfate concentration do not involve any chemical interaction with cement hydrates. Over the past couple of decades, an intensive work has been carried out on sulfate attack in cement-based materials. However, there are several uncertainties still exist regarding the mechanism for the damage of concrete in sulfate environments. In this study, modelling work has been conducted to investigate the chemical degradation of cementitious materials in various sulfate environments. Both internal and external sulfate attack are considered for the simulation. In the internal sulfate attack, hydrate assemblage and pore solution chemistry of co-hydrating Portland cement (PC) and slag mixing with sodium sulfate solution are calculated to determine the degradation of the PC and slag-blended cementitious materials. Pitzer interactions coefficients were used to calculate the activity coefficients of solution chemistry at high ionic strength. The deterioration mechanism of co-hydrating cementitious materials with 25% of Na₂SO₄ by weight is the formation of mirabilite crystals and ettringite. Their formation strongly depends on sodium sulfate concentration and temperature. For the external sulfate attack, the deterioration of various types of cementitious materials under external sulfate ingress is simulated through reactive transport model. The reactive transport model is verified with experimental data in terms of phase assemblage of various cementitious materials with spatial distribution for different sulfate solution. Finally, the reactive transport model is used to predict the long-term performance of cementitious materials exposed to 10% of Na₂SO₄ for 1000 years. The dissolution of cement hydrates and secondary formation of sulfate-bearing products mainly ettringite are the dominant degradation mechanisms, but not the sodium sulfate crystallization.

Keywords: thermodynamic calculations, reactive transport, radioactive waste disposal, PHREEQC

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313 Computational Investigation on Structural and Functional Impact of Oncogenes and Tumor Suppressor Genes on Cancer

Authors: Abdoulie K. Ceesay

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Within the sequence of the whole genome, it is known that 99.9% of the human genome is similar, whilst our difference lies in just 0.1%. Among these minor dissimilarities, the most common type of genetic variations that occurs in a population is SNP, which arises due to nucleotide substitution in a protein sequence that leads to protein destabilization, alteration in dynamics, and other physio-chemical properties’ distortions. While causing variations, they are equally responsible for our difference in the way we respond to a treatment or a disease, including various cancer types. There are two types of SNPs; synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (sSNP) and non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (nsSNP). sSNP occur in the gene coding region without causing a change in the encoded amino acid, while nsSNP is deleterious due to its replacement of a nucleotide residue in the gene sequence that results in a change in the encoded amino acid. Predicting the effects of cancer related nsSNPs on protein stability, function, and dynamics is important due to the significance of phenotype-genotype association of cancer. In this thesis, Data of 5 oncogenes (ONGs) (AKT1, ALK, ERBB2, KRAS, BRAF) and 5 tumor suppressor genes (TSGs) (ESR1, CASP8, TET2, PALB2, PTEN) were retrieved from ClinVar. Five common in silico tools; Polyphen, Provean, Mutation Assessor, Suspect, and FATHMM, were used to predict and categorize nsSNPs as deleterious, benign, or neutral. To understand the impact of each variation on the phenotype, Maestro, PremPS, Cupsat, and mCSM-NA in silico structural prediction tools were used. This study comprises of in-depth analysis of 10 cancer gene variants downloaded from Clinvar. Various analysis of the genes was conducted to derive a meaningful conclusion from the data. Research done indicated that pathogenic variants are more common among ONGs. Our research also shows that pathogenic and destabilizing variants are more common among ONGs than TSGs. Moreover, our data indicated that ALK(409) and BRAF(86) has higher benign count among ONGs; whilst among TSGs, PALB2(1308) and PTEN(318) genes have higher benign counts. Looking at the individual cancer genes predisposition or frequencies of causing cancer according to our research data, KRAS(76%), BRAF(55%), and ERBB2(36%) among ONGs; and PTEN(29%) and ESR1(17%) among TSGs have higher tendencies of causing cancer. Obtained results can shed light to the future research in order to pave new frontiers in cancer therapies.

Keywords: tumor suppressor genes (TSGs), oncogenes (ONGs), non synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (nsSNP), single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)

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312 Tailoring Quantum Oscillations of Excitonic Schrodinger’s Cats as Qubits

Authors: Amit Bhunia, Mohit Kumar Singh, Maryam Al Huwayz, Mohamed Henini, Shouvik Datta

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We report [https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.13518] experimental detection and control of Schrodinger’s Cat like macroscopically large, quantum coherent state of a two-component Bose-Einstein condensate of spatially indirect electron-hole pairs or excitons using a resonant tunneling diode of III-V Semiconductors. This provides access to millions of excitons as qubits to allow efficient, fault-tolerant quantum computation. In this work, we measure phase-coherent periodic oscillations in photo-generated capacitance as a function of an applied voltage bias and light intensity over a macroscopically large area. Periodic presence and absence of splitting of excitonic peaks in the optical spectra measured by photocapacitance point towards tunneling induced variations in capacitive coupling between the quantum well and quantum dots. Observation of negative ‘quantum capacitance’ due to a screening of charge carriers by the quantum well indicates Coulomb correlations of interacting excitons in the plane of the sample. We also establish that coherent resonant tunneling in this well-dot heterostructure restricts the available momentum space of the charge carriers within this quantum well. Consequently, the electric polarization vector of the associated indirect excitons collective orients along the direction of applied bias and these excitons undergo Bose-Einstein condensation below ~100 K. Generation of interference beats in photocapacitance oscillation even with incoherent white light further confirm the presence of stable, long-range spatial correlation among these indirect excitons. We finally demonstrate collective Rabi oscillations of these macroscopically large, ‘multipartite’, two-level, coupled and uncoupled quantum states of excitonic condensate as qubits. Therefore, our study not only brings the physics and technology of Bose-Einstein condensation within the reaches of semiconductor chips but also opens up experimental investigations of the fundamentals of quantum physics using similar techniques. Operational temperatures of such two-component excitonic BEC can be raised further with a more densely packed, ordered array of QDs and/or using materials having larger excitonic binding energies. However, fabrications of single crystals of 0D-2D heterostructures using 2D materials (e.g. transition metal di-chalcogenides, oxides, perovskites etc.) having higher excitonic binding energies are still an open challenge for semiconductor optoelectronics. As of now, these 0D-2D heterostructures can already be scaled up for mass production of miniaturized, portable quantum optoelectronic devices using the existing III-V and/or Nitride based semiconductor fabrication technologies.

Keywords: exciton, Bose-Einstein condensation, quantum computation, heterostructures, semiconductor Physics, quantum fluids, Schrodinger's Cat

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311 Proposed Design Principles for Low-Income Housing in South Africa

Authors: Gerald Steyn

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Despite the huge number of identical, tiny, boxy, freestanding houses built by the South African government after the advent of democracy in 1994, squatter camps continue to mushroom, and there is no evidence that the backlog is being reduced. Not only is the wasteful low-density detached-unit approach of the past being perpetuated, but the social, spatial, and economic marginalization is worse than before 1994. The situation is precarious since squatters are vulnerable to fires and flooding. At the same time, the occupants of the housing schemes are trapped far from employment opportunities or any public amenities. Despite these insecurities, the architectural, urban design, and city planning professions are puzzlingly quiet. Design projects address these issues only at the universities, albeit inevitably with somewhat Utopian notions. Geoffrey Payne, the renowned urban housing and urban development consultant and researcher focusing on issues in the Global South, once proclaimed that “we do not have a housing problem – we have a settlement problem.” This dictum was used as the guiding philosophy to conceptualize urban design and architectural principles that foreground the needs of low-income households and allow them to be fully integrated into the larger conurbation. Information was derived from intensive research over two decades, involving frequent visits to informal settlements, historic Black townships, and rural villages. Observations, measured site surveys, and interviews resulted in several scholarly articles from which a set of desirable urban and architectural criteria could be extracted. To formulate culturally appropriate design principles, existing vernacular and informal patterns were analyzed, reconciled with contemporary designs that align with the requirements for the envisaged settlement attributes, and reimagined as residential design principles. Five interrelated design principles are proposed, ranging in scale from (1) Integrating informal settlements into the city, (2) linear neighborhoods, (3) market streets as wards, (4) linear neighborhoods, and (5) typologies and densities for clustered and aggregated patios and courtyards. Each design principle is described, first in terms of its context and associated issues of concern, followed by a discussion of the patterns available to inform a possible solution, and finally, an explanation and graphic illustration of the proposed design. The approach is predominantly bottom-up since each of the five principles is unfolded from existing informal and vernacular practices studied in situ. They are, however, articulated and represented in terms of contemporary design language. Contrary to an idealized vision of housing for South Africa’s low-income urban households, this study proposes actual principles for critical assessment by peers in the tradition of architectural research in design.

Keywords: culturally appropriate design principles, informal settlements, South Africa’s housing backlog, squatter camps

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310 Modeling of Geotechnical Data Using GIS and Matlab for Eastern Ahmedabad City, Gujarat

Authors: Rahul Patel, S. P. Dave, M. V Shah

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Ahmedabad is a rapidly growing city in western India that is experiencing significant urbanization and industrialization. With projections indicating that it will become a metropolitan city in the near future, various construction activities are taking place, making soil testing a crucial requirement before construction can commence. To achieve this, construction companies and contractors need to periodically conduct soil testing. This study focuses on the process of creating a spatial database that is digitally formatted and integrated with geotechnical data and a Geographic Information System (GIS). Building a comprehensive geotechnical Geo-database involves three essential steps. Firstly, borehole data is collected from reputable sources. Secondly, the accuracy and redundancy of the data are verified. Finally, the geotechnical information is standardized and organized for integration into the database. Once the Geo-database is complete, it is integrated with GIS. This integration allows users to visualize, analyze, and interpret geotechnical information spatially. Using a Topographic to Raster interpolation process in GIS, estimated values are assigned to all locations based on sampled geotechnical data values. The study area was contoured for SPT N-Values, Soil Classification, Φ-Values, and Bearing Capacity (T/m2). Various interpolation techniques were cross-validated to ensure information accuracy. The GIS map generated by this study enables the calculation of SPT N-Values, Φ-Values, and bearing capacities for different footing widths and various depths. This approach highlights the potential of GIS in providing an efficient solution to complex phenomena that would otherwise be tedious to achieve through other means. Not only does GIS offer greater accuracy, but it also generates valuable information that can be used as input for correlation analysis. Furthermore, this system serves as a decision support tool for geotechnical engineers. The information generated by this study can be utilized by engineers to make informed decisions during construction activities. For instance, they can use the data to optimize foundation designs and improve site selection. In conclusion, the rapid growth experienced by Ahmedabad requires extensive construction activities, necessitating soil testing. This study focused on the process of creating a comprehensive geotechnical database integrated with GIS. The database was developed by collecting borehole data from reputable sources, verifying its accuracy and redundancy, and organizing the information for integration. The GIS map generated by this study is an efficient solution that offers greater accuracy and generates valuable information that can be used as input for correlation analysis. It also serves as a decision support tool for geotechnical engineers, allowing them to make informed decisions during construction activities.

Keywords: arcGIS, borehole data, geographic information system (GIS), geo-database, interpolation, SPT N-value, soil classification, φ-value, bearing capacity

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309 Acquisition of Murcian Lexicon and Morphology by L2 Spanish Immigrants: The Role of Social Networks

Authors: Andrea Hernandez Hurtado

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Research on social networks (SNs) -- the interactions individuals share with others has shed important light in helping to explain differential use of variable linguistic forms, both in L1s and L2s. Nevertheless, the acquisition of nonstandard L2 Spanish in the Region of Murcia, Spain, and how learners interact with other speakers while sojourning there have received little attention. Murcian Spanish (MuSp) was widely influenced by Panocho, a divergent evolution of Hispanic Latin, and differs from the more standard Peninsular Spanish (StSp) in phonology, morphology, and lexicon. For instance, speakers from this area will most likely palatalize diminutive endings, producing animalico [̩a.ni.ma.ˈli.ko] instead of animalito [̩a.ni.ma.ˈli.to] ‘little animal’. Because L1 speakers of the area produce and prefer salient regional lexicon and morphology (particularly the palatalized diminutive -ico) in their speech, the current research focuses on how international residents in the Region of Murcia use Spanish: (1) whether or not they acquire (perceptively and/or productively) any of the salient regional features of MuSp, and (2) how their SNs explain such acquisition. This study triangulates across three tasks -recognition, production, and preference- addressing both lexicon and morphology, with each task specifically created for the investigation of MuSp features. Among other variables, the effects of L1, residence, and identity are considered. As an ongoing dissertation research, data are currently being gathered through an online questionnaire. So far, 7 participants from multiple nationalities have completed the survey, although a minimum of 25 are expected to be included in the coming months. Preliminary results revealed that MuSp lexicon and morphology were successfully recognized by participants (p<.001). In terms of regional lexicon production (10.0%) and preference (47.5%), although participants showed higher percentages of StSp, results showed that international residents become aware of stigmatized lexicon and may incorporate it into their language use. Similarly, palatalized diminutives (production 14.2%, preference 19.0%) were present in their responses. The Social Network Analysis provided information about participants’ relationships with their interactants, as well as among them. Results indicated that, generally, when residents were more immersed in the culture (i.e., had more Murcian alters) they produced and preferred more regional features. This project contributes to the knowledge of language variation acquisition in L2 speakers, focusing on a stigmatized Spanish dialect and exploring how stigmatized varieties may affect L2 development. Results will show how L2 Spanish speakers’ language is affected by their stay in Murcia. This, in turn, will shed light on the role of SNs in language acquisition, the acquisition of understudied and marginalized varieties, and the role of immersion on language acquisition. As the first systematic account on the acquisition of L2 Spanish lexicon and morphology in the Region of Murcia, it lays important groundwork for further research on the connection between SNs and the acquisition of regional variants, applicable to Murcia and beyond.

Keywords: international residents, L2 Spanish, lexicon, morphology, nonstandard language acquisition, social networks

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308 MBES-CARIS Data Validation for the Bathymetric Mapping of Shallow Water in the Kingdom of Bahrain on the Arabian Gulf

Authors: Abderrazak Bannari, Ghadeer Kadhem

Abstract:

The objectives of this paper are the validation and the evaluation of MBES-CARIS BASE surface data performance for bathymetric mapping of shallow water in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The latter is an archipelago with a total land area of about 765.30 km², approximately 126 km of coastline and 8,000 km² of marine area, located in the Arabian Gulf, east of Saudi Arabia and west of Qatar (26° 00’ N, 50° 33’ E). To achieve our objectives, bathymetric attributed grid files (X, Y, and depth) generated from the coverage of ship-track MBSE data with 300 x 300 m cells, processed with CARIS-HIPS, were downloaded from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO). Then, brought into ArcGIS and converted into a raster format following five steps: Exportation of GEBCO BASE surface data to the ASCII file; conversion of ASCII file to a points shape file; extraction of the area points covering the water boundary of the Kingdom of Bahrain and multiplying the depth values by -1 to get the negative values. Then, the simple Kriging method was used in ArcMap environment to generate a new raster bathymetric grid surface of 30×30 m cells, which was the basis of the subsequent analysis. Finally, for validation purposes, 2200 bathymetric points were extracted from a medium scale nautical map (1:100 000) considering different depths over the Bahrain national water boundary. The nautical map was scanned, georeferenced and overlaid on the MBES-CARIS generated raster bathymetric grid surface (step 5 above), and then homologous depth points were selected. Statistical analysis, expressed as a linear error at the 95% confidence level, showed a strong correlation coefficient (R² = 0.96) and a low RMSE (± 0.57 m) between the nautical map and derived MBSE-CARIS depths if we consider only the shallow areas with depths of less than 10 m (about 800 validation points). When we consider only deeper areas (> 10 m) the correlation coefficient is equal to 0.73 and the RMSE is equal to ± 2.43 m while if we consider the totality of 2200 validation points including all depths, the correlation coefficient is still significant (R² = 0.81) with satisfactory RMSE (± 1.57 m). Certainly, this significant variation can be caused by the MBSE that did not completely cover the bottom in several of the deeper pockmarks because of the rapid change in depth. In addition, steep slopes and the rough seafloor probably affect the acquired MBSE raw data. In addition, the interpolation of missed area values between MBSE acquisition swaths-lines (ship-tracked sounding data) may not reflect the true depths of these missed areas. However, globally the results of the MBES-CARIS data are very appropriate for bathymetric mapping of shallow water areas.

Keywords: bathymetry mapping, multibeam echosounder systems, CARIS-HIPS, shallow water

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307 Association of Body Composition Parameters with Lower Limb Strength and Upper Limb Functional Capacity in Quilombola Remnants

Authors: Leonardo Costa Pereira, Frederico Santos Santana, Mauro Karnikowski, Luís Sinésio Silva Neto, Aline Oliveira Gomes, Marisete Peralta Safons, Margô Gomes De Oliveira Karnikowski

Abstract:

In Brazil, projections of population aging follow all world projections, the birth rate tends to be surpassed by the mortality rate around the year 2045. Historically, the population of Brazilian blacks suffered for several centuries from the oppression of dominant classes. A group, especially of blacks, stands out in relation to territorial, historical and social aspects, and for centuries they have isolated themselves in small communities, in order to maintain their freedom and culture. The isolation of the Quilombola communities generated socioeconomic effects as well as the health of these blacks. Thus, the objective of the present study is to verify the association of body composition parameters with lower and upper limb strength and functional capacity in Quilombola remnants. The research was approved by ethics committee (1,771,159). Anthropometric evaluations of hip and waist circumference, body mass and height were performed. In order to verify the body composition, the relationship between stature and body mass (BM) was performed, generating the body mass index (BMI), as well as the dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) test. The Time Up and Go (TUG) test was used to evaluate the functional capacity, and a maximum repetition test (1MR) for knee extension and handgrip (HG) was applied for strength magnitude analysis. Statistical analysis was performed using the statistical package SPSS 22.0. Shapiro Wilk's normality test was performed. For the possible correlations, the suggestions of the Pearson or Spearman tests were adopted. The results obtained after the interpretation identified that the sample (n = 18) was composed of 66.7% of female individuals with mean age of 66.07 ± 8.95 years. The sample’s body fat percentage (%BF) (35.65 ± 10.73) exceeds the recommendations for age group, as well as the anthropometric parameters of hip (90.91 ± 8.44cm) and waist circumference (80.37 ± 17.5cm). The relationship between height (1.55 ± 0.1m) and body mass (63.44 ± 11.25Kg) generated a BMI of 24.16 ± 7.09Kg/m2, that was considered normal. The TUG performance was 10.71 ± 1.85s. In the 1MR test, 46.67 ± 13.06Kg and in the HG 23.93±7.96Kgf were obtained, respectively. Correlation analyzes were characterized by the high frequency of significant correlations for height, dominant arm mass (DAM), %BF, 1MR and HG variables. In addition, correlations between HG and BM (r = 0.67, p = 0.005), height (r = 0.51, p = 0.004) and DAM (r = 0.55, p = 0.026) were also observed. The strength of the lower limbs correlates with BM (r = 0.69, p = 0.003), height (r = 0.62, p = 0.01) and DAM (r = 0.772, p = 0.001). In this way, we can conclude that not only the simple spatial relationship of mass and height can influence in predictive parameters of strength or functionality, being important the verification of the conditions of the corporal composition. For this population, height seems to be a good predictor of strength and body composition.

Keywords: African Continental Ancestry Group, body composition, functional capacity, strength

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306 Finite Element Analysis of the Anaconda Device: Efficiently Predicting the Location and Shape of a Deployed Stent

Authors: Faidon Kyriakou, William Dempster, David Nash

Abstract:

Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) is a major life-threatening pathology for which modern approaches reduce the need for open surgery through the use of stenting. The success of stenting though is sometimes jeopardized by the final position of the stent graft inside the human artery which may result in migration, endoleaks or blood flow occlusion. Herein, a finite element (FE) model of the commercial medical device AnacondaTM (Vascutek, Terumo) has been developed and validated in order to create a numerical tool able to provide useful clinical insight before the surgical procedure takes place. The AnacondaTM device consists of a series of NiTi rings sewn onto woven polyester fabric, a structure that despite its column stiffness is flexible enough to be used in very tortuous geometries. For the purposes of this study, a FE model of the device was built in Abaqus® (version 6.13-2) with the combination of beam, shell and surface elements; the choice of these building blocks was made to keep the computational cost to a minimum. The validation of the numerical model was performed by comparing the deployed position of a full stent graft device inside a constructed AAA with a duplicate set-up in Abaqus®. Specifically, an AAA geometry was built in CAD software and included regions of both high and low tortuosity. Subsequently, the CAD model was 3D printed into a transparent aneurysm, and a stent was deployed in the lab following the steps of the clinical procedure. Images on the frontal and sagittal planes of the experiment allowed the comparison with the results of the numerical model. By overlapping the experimental and computational images, the mean and maximum distances between the rings of the two models were measured in the longitudinal, and the transverse direction and, a 5mm upper bound was set as a limit commonly used by clinicians when working with simulations. The two models showed very good agreement of their spatial positioning, especially in the less tortuous regions. As a result, and despite the inherent uncertainties of a surgical procedure, the FE model allows confidence that the final position of the stent graft, when deployed in vivo, can also be predicted with significant accuracy. Moreover, the numerical model run in just a few hours, an encouraging result for applications in the clinical routine. In conclusion, the efficient modelling of a complicated structure which combines thin scaffolding and fabric has been demonstrated to be feasible. Furthermore, the prediction capabilities of the location of each stent ring, as well as the global shape of the graft, has been shown. This can allow surgeons to better plan their procedures and medical device manufacturers to optimize their designs. The current model can further be used as a starting point for patient specific CFD analysis.

Keywords: AAA, efficiency, finite element analysis, stent deployment

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305 A New Perspective in Cervical Dystonia: Neurocognitive Impairment

Authors: Yesim Sucullu Karadag, Pinar Kurt, Sule Bilen, Nese Subutay Oztekin, Fikri Ak

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Background: Primary cervical dystonia is thought to be a purely motor disorder. But recent studies revealed that patients with dystonia had additional non-motor features. Sensory and psychiatric disturbances could be included into the non-motor spectrum of dystonia. The Basal Ganglia receive inputs from all cortical areas and throughout the thalamus project to several cortical areas, thus participating to circuits that have been linked to motor as well as sensory, emotional and cognitive functions. However, there are limited studies indicating cognitive impairment in patients with cervical dystonia. More evidence is required regarding neurocognitive functioning in these patients. Objective: This study is aimed to investigate neurocognitive profile of cervical dystonia patients in comparison to healthy controls (HC) by employing a detailed set of neuropsychological tests in addition to self-reported instruments. Methods: Totally 29 (M/F: 7/22) cervical dystonia patients and 30 HC (M/F: 10/20) were included into the study. Exclusion criteria were depression and not given informed consent. Standard demographic, educational data and clinical reports (disease duration, disability index) were recorded for all patients. After a careful neurological evaluation, all subjects were given a comprehensive battery of neuropsychological tests: Self report of neuropsychological condition (by visual analogue scale-VAS, 0-100), RAVLT, STROOP, PASAT, TMT, SDMT, JLOT, DST, COWAT, ACTT, and FST. Patients and HC were compared regarding demographic, clinical features and neurocognitive tests. Also correlation between disease duration, disability index and self report -VAS were assessed. Results: There was no difference between patients and HCs regarding socio-demographic variables such as age, gender and years of education (p levels were 0.36, 0.436, 0.869; respectively). All of the patients were assessed at the peak of botulinum toxine effect and they were not taking an anticholinergic agent or benzodiazepine. Dystonia patients had significantly impaired verbal learning and memory (RAVLT, p<0.001), divided attention and working memory (ACTT, p<0.001), attention speed (TMT-A and B, p=0.008, 0.050), executive functions (PASAT, p<0.001; SDMT, p= 0.001; FST, p<0.001), verbal attention (DST, p=0.001), verbal fluency (COWAT, p<0.001), visio-spatial processing (JLOT, p<0.001) in comparison to healthy controls. But focused attention (STROOP-spontaneous correction) was not different between two groups (p>0.05). No relationship was found regarding disease duration and disability index with any neurocognitive tests. Conclusions: Our study showed that neurocognitive functions of dystonia patients were worse than control group with the similar age, sex, and education independently clinical expression like disease duration and disability index. This situation may be the result of possible cortical and subcortical changes in dystonia patients. Advanced neuroimaging techniques might be helpful to explain these changes in cervical dystonia patients.

Keywords: cervical dystonia, neurocognitive impairment, neuropsychological test, dystonia disability index

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304 Analysis of Differentially Expressed Genes in Spontaneously Occurring Canine Melanoma

Authors: Simona Perga, Chiara Beltramo, Floriana Fruscione, Isabella Martini, Federica Cavallo, Federica Riccardo, Paolo Buracco, Selina Iussich, Elisabetta Razzuoli, Katia Varello, Lorella Maniscalco, Elena Bozzetta, Angelo Ferrari, Paola Modesto

Abstract:

Introduction: Human and canine melanoma have common clinical, histologic characteristics making dogs a good model for comparative oncology. The identification of specific genes and a better understanding of the genetic landscape, signaling pathways, and tumor–microenvironmental interactions involved in the cancer onset and progression is essential for the development of therapeutic strategies against this tumor in both species. In the present study, the differential expression of genes in spontaneously occurring canine melanoma and in paired normal tissue was investigated by targeted RNAseq. Material and Methods: Total RNA was extracted from 17 canine malignant melanoma (CMM) samples and from five paired normal tissues stored in RNA-later. In order to capture the greater genetic variability, gene expression analysis was carried out using two panels (Qiagen): Human Immuno-Oncology (HIO) and Mouse-Immuno-Oncology (MIO) and the miSeq platform (Illumina). These kits allow the detection of the expression profile of 990 genes involved in the immune response against tumors in humans and mice. The data were analyzed through the CLCbio Genomics Workbench (Qiagen) software using the Canis lupus familiaris genome as a reference. Data analysis were carried out both comparing the biologic group (tumoral vs. healthy tissues) and comparing neoplastic tissue vs. paired healthy tissue; a Fold Change greater than two and a p-value less than 0.05 were set as the threshold to select interesting genes. Results and Discussion: Using HIO 63, down-regulated genes were detected; 13 of those were also down-regulated comparing neoplastic sample vs. paired healthy tissue. Eighteen genes were up-regulated, 14 of those were also down-regulated comparing neoplastic sample vs. paired healthy tissue. Using the MIO, 35 down regulated-genes were detected; only four of these were down-regulated, also comparing neoplastic sample vs. paired healthy tissue. Twelve genes were up-regulated in both types of analysis. Considering the two kits, the greatest variation in Fold Change was in up-regulated genes. Dogs displayed a greater genetic homology with humans than mice; moreover, the results have shown that the two kits are able to detect different genes. Most of these genes have specific cellular functions or belong to some enzymatic categories; some have already been described to be correlated to human melanoma and confirm the validity of the dog as a model for the study of molecular aspects of human melanoma.

Keywords: animal model, canine melanoma, gene expression, spontaneous tumors, targeted RNAseq

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303 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Droughts in the Limpopo River Basin

Authors: Nokwethaba Makhanya, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Piotr Wolski

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Climate change possibly intensifies hydrological droughts and reduces water availability in river basins. Despite this, most research on climate change effects in southern Africa has focused exclusively on meteorological droughts. This thesis projects the potential impact of climate change on the future characteristics of hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). The study uses regional climate model (RCM) measurements (from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, CORDEX) and a combination of hydrological simulations (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model, SWAT+) to predict the impacts at four global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃, and 3.0℃) under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated with a streamflow dataset observed over the basin, and the sensitivity of model parameters was investigated. The performance of the SWAT+LRB model was verified using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have been used to detect meteorological droughts. The Soil Water Index (SSI) has been used to define agricultural drought, while the Water Yield Drought Index (WYLDI), the Surface Run-off Index (SRI), and the Streamflow Index (SFI) have been used to characterise hydrological drought. The performance of the SWAT+ model simulations over LRB is sensitive to the parameters CN2 (initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II) and ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor). The best simulation generally performed better during the calibration period than the validation period. In calibration and validation periods, NSE is ≤ 0.8, while PBIAS is ≥ ﹣80.3%, RMSE ≥ 11.2 m³/s, and R² ≤ 0.9. The simulations project a future increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration over the basin, but they do not project a significant future trend in precipitation and hydrological variables. However, the spatial distribution of precipitation reveals a projected increase in precipitation in the southern part of the basin and a decline in the northern part of the basin, with the region of reduced precipitation projected to increase with GWLs. A decrease in all hydrological variables is projected over most parts of the basin, especially over the eastern part of the basin. The simulations predict meteorological droughts (i.e., SPEI and SPI), agricultural droughts (i.e., SSI), and hydrological droughts (i.e., WYLDI, SRI) would become more intense and severe across the basin. SPEI-drought has a greater magnitude of increase than SPI-drought, and agricultural and hydrological droughts have a magnitude of increase between the two. As a result, this research suggests that future hydrological droughts over the LRB could be more severe than the SPI-drought projection predicts but less severe than the SPEI-drought projection. This research can be used to mitigate the effects of potential climate change on basin hydrological drought.

Keywords: climate change, CORDEX, drought, hydrological modelling, Limpopo River Basin

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