Search results for: fingertip skin models

Authors: Haozhe Xiang

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With the rise of the Internet of Things era, intelligent products are gradually integrating into people's lives. Pedestrian trajectory prediction has become a key issue, which is crucial for the motion path planning of intelligent agents such as autonomous vehicles, robots, and drones. In the current technological context, deep learning technology is becoming increasingly sophisticated and gradually replacing traditional models. The pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithm combining neural networks and attention mechanisms has significantly improved prediction accuracy. Based on in-depth research on deep learning and pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithms, this article focuses on physical environment modeling and learning of historical trajectory time dependence. At the same time, social interaction between pedestrians and scene interaction between pedestrians and the environment were handled. An improved pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithm is proposed by analyzing the existing model architecture. With the help of these improvements, acceptable predicted trajectories were successfully obtained. Experiments on public datasets have demonstrated the algorithm's effectiveness and achieved acceptable results.

Keywords: deep learning, graph convolutional network, attention mechanism, LSTM

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Authors: Marta Fernández Olmos, Jorge Fleta, Talia Gómez

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This article shares the results of a temporal analysis of the literature on imports of intermediate inputs based on review techniques. The aim of this paper is to identify the main lines of research, their trends, topics, and the research agenda. The internationalization field has attracted considerable scholars and practitioners’ attention in recent years and has grown, rapidly, resulting in a large body of knowledge scattered in different areas of specialization. However, there are no studies that are entirely restricted to imports, intermediate inputs and innovation performance. The performance analysis provided an updated overview of the evolution of the importing literature from 1970 to 2022 and quantitatively identified the most productive and influential journals, articles, authors, and countries. The results show that the current topics are mainly based on modes of importing, innovation performance of importing intermediate imports and collaborations. Future lines of research are identified from topics with lower co-occurrence, such as artificial intelligence, entrepreneurship, and alternative business models such as multinational enterprises (MNEs) versus non-MNEs.

Keywords: imports, intermediate inputs, innovation performance, review

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Authors: Shidvash Vakilipour, Mehdi Habibnia, Rouzbeh Riazi, Masoud Mohammadi, Mohammad H. Sabour

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The flow field passing through a highly loaded low pressure (LP) turbine cascade is numerically investigated at design and off-design conditions. The Field Operation And Manipulation (OpenFOAM) platform is used as the computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tool. Firstly, the influences of grid resolution on the results of k-ε, k-ω, and LES turbulence models are investigated and compared with those of experimental measurements. A numerical pressure under-shoot is appeared near the end of blade pressure surface which is sensitive to grid resolution and flow turbulence modeling. The LES model is able to resolve separation on a coarse and fine grid resolutions. Secondly, the off-design flow condition is modeled by negative and positive inflow incidence angles. The numerical experiments show that a separation bubble generated on blade pressure side is predicted by LES. The total pressure drop is also been calculated at incidence angle between -20◦ and +8◦. The minimum total pressure drop is obtained by k-ω and LES at the design point.

Keywords: low pressure turbine, off-design performance, openFOAM, turbulence modeling, flow separation

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Authors: Yuan Li, Yitao Han, Zhao Zhu

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In this paper, the effect of blasting loads on steel-concrete composite bridges has been investigated considering the slope reflection effect. Reasonable values of girder size, plate thickness, stiffening rib, and other design parameters were selected according to design specifications. Modified RHT (Riedel-Hiermaier-Thoma) was used as constitutive relation in analyses. In order to simulate the slope reflection effect, the slope of the bridge was precisely built in the model. Different blasting conditions, including top, middle, and bottom explosions, were simulated. The multi-Euler domain method based on fully coupled Lagrange and Euler models was adopted for the structural analysis of the explosion process using commercial software AUTODYN. The obtained results showed that explosion overpressure was increased by 3006, 879, and 449kPa, corresponding to explosions occurring at the top, middle, and bottom of the slope, respectively. At the same time, due to energy accumulation and transmission dissipation caused by slope reflection, the corresponding yield lengths of steel beams were increased by 8, 0, and 5m, respectively.

Keywords: steel-concrete composite bridge, explosion damage, slope reflection, blasting loads, RHT

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Authors: Alessandro Marzucchini, Yie Sue Chua, Andrew Lian, Richard Shonn Mills

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A unique, fast and easy installed inter-module connection named Candle-Loc was developed and applied in several high-rise steel and reinforced concrete modular buildings in Singapore and Hong Kong, China. However, its effect on the global behaviour of modular buildings in high seismic zones was not studied. Therefore, the design concept and the structural performance of each component in this connection was investigated through analytical approach. Response spectrum, linear time-history, and nonlinear time-history analyses were conducted to investigate the effects of the different joint models of the Candle-Loc in the global analysis of high-rise buildings under high seismic loads. It is found that it is important to assess the level of plasticity developed in the inter-module connection under high seismic loads. The ductility of the lateral force resisting system influences the amount of load taken by the inter-module connections.

Keywords: high-rise, inter-module connection, nonlinear, seismic, time-history analysis

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Authors: Jean Marie Tshimula, Atsushi Togashi

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We develop a data-science approach for providing an interactive visualization and predictive models to find insights into the projects' historical data in order for stakeholders understand some unseen opportunities in the African market that might escape them behind the online project portfolio of the African Development Bank. This machine learning-based web application identifies the market trend of the fastest growing economies across the continent as well skyrocketing sectors which have a significant impact on the future of business in Africa. Owing to this, the approach is tailored to predict where the investment needs are the most required. Moreover, we create a corpus that includes the descriptions of over more than 1,200 projects that approximately cover 14 sectors designed for some of 53 African countries. Then, we sift out this large amount of semi-structured data for extracting tiny details susceptible to contain some directions to follow. In the light of the foregoing, we have applied the combination of Latent Dirichlet Allocation and Random Forests at the level of the analysis module of our methodology to highlight the most relevant topics that investors may focus on for investing in Africa.

Keywords: machine learning, topic modeling, natural language processing, big data

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Bedilu A. Ejigu, Eshetu Wencheko, Kiros Berhane

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Anaemia is a condition in which the haemoglobin concentration falls below an established cut-off value due to a decrease in the number and size of red blood cells. The current study aimed to assess the spatial pattern and identify predictors related to anaemia using the third Ethiopian demographic health survey which was conducted in 2010. To achieve this objective, this study took into account the clustered nature of the data. As a result, multilevel modeling has been used in the statistical analysis. For analysis purpose, only complete cases from 15,909 females, and 13,903 males were considered. Among all subjects who agreed for haemoglobin test, 5.49 %males, and 19.86% females were anaemic. In both binary and ordinal outcome modeling approaches, educational level, age, wealth index, BMI and HIV status were identified to be significant predictors for anaemia prevalence. Furthermore, it was noted that pregnant women were more anaemic than non-pregnant women. As revealed by Moran's I test, significant spatial autocorrelation was noted across clusters. The risk of anaemia was found to vary across different regions, and higher prevalence was observed in Somali and Affar region.

Keywords: anaemia, Moran's I test, multilevel models, spatial pattern

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Authors: Mengqiu Deng, Xiao Peng, Yang Zhao

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The development of local energy systems requires the collective involvement of different actors from various levels of society. However, the stakeholder analysis of local energy systems still has been under-developed. This paper proposes an multi-agent system (MAS) framework to facilitate the development of stakeholder analysis of local energy systems. The framework takes into account the most influencing stakeholders, including prosumers/consumers, system operators, energy companies and government bodies. Different stakeholders are modeled based on agent architectures for example the belief-desire-intention (BDI) to better reflect their motivations and interests in participating in local energy systems. The agent models of different stakeholders are then integrated in one model of the whole energy system. An illustrative case study is provided to elaborate how to develop a quantitative agent model for different stakeholders, as well as to demonstrate the practicability of the proposed framework. The findings from the case study indicate that the suggested framework and agent model can serve as analytical instruments for enhancing the government’s policy-making process by offering a systematic view of stakeholder interconnections in local energy systems.

Keywords: multi-agent system, BDI agent, local energy systems, stakeholders

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Authors: Yungtai Lo

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The current study follows an educational intervention on bottle-weaning to simultaneously evaluate the effect of the bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months. A shared parameter model and a random effects model are used to jointly model bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake. We show in the two joint models that the bottle-weaning intervention promotes bottleweaning, and reduces daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles and daily energy intake. We also show that the odds of drinking from a bottle were positively associated with the amount of milk intake from bottles and increased daily milk intake from bottles was associated with increased daily energy intake. The effect of bottle use on daily energy intake is through its effect on increasing daily milk intake from bottles that in turn increases daily energy intake.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, joint model, gamma regression, shared parameter model, random effects model

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Authors: Allmin Susaiyah, Aki Härmä, Milan Petković

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Automatic generation of insights from data using insight mining systems (IMS) is useful in many applications, such as personal health tracking, patient monitoring, and business process management. Existing IMS face challenges in controlling insight extraction, scaling to large databases, and generalising to unseen domains. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach consisting of rule-based and neural components for generating insights from data while overcoming the aforementioned challenges. Firstly, a rule-based data 2CNL component is used to extract statistically significant insights from data and represent them in a controlled natural language (CNL). Secondly, a BERTSum-based CNL2NL component is used to convert these CNLs into natural language texts. We improve the model using task-specific and domain-specific fine-tuning. Our approach has been evaluated using statistical techniques and standard evaluation metrics. We overcame the aforementioned challenges and observed significant improvement with domain-specific fine-tuning.

Keywords: data mining, insight mining, natural language generation, pre-trained language models

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Authors: Najah Kalifah Almazmomi

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In the time of artificial intelligence (AI), there is a need to know the determinants of success in business management, which are taking on a new dimension. This research purports to scrutinize the Critical Success Factors (CSFs) that drive and ignite the fire of success to help uncover the subtle and profound dynamics that might be operative in organizations. By means of a systematic literature review and a number of empirical methods, the paper is aimed at determining and assessing the key aspects of CSFs, putting emphasis on their role and meaning in the context of AI technology adoption. Some central features such as leadership ways, innovation models, strategic thinking methodologies, organizational culture transformations, and human resource management approaches are compared and contrasted with the AI-driven revolution. Additionally, this research will explore the interactive effects of these factors and their joint impact on the success, survival, and flexibility of a business in the current environment, which is changing due to AI development. Through the use of different qualitative and quantitative methodologies, the research concludes that the findings are significant in understanding the relative roles of individual CSFs and in studying the interactions between them in such an AI-enabled business environment.

Keywords: critical success factors, business and management, artificial intelligence, leadership strategies

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Authors: Ana Carolina Hecht, Noelia Enriz, Mariana Garcia Palacios

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The South American anthropology has been recently focused to research with children in different contexts. In our researches with children from indigenous communities in the lowlands and highlands of South America (Qom and Mbyá), we especially considered social categories that define the different ways of being a boy and a girl. In this way, we built an approach to disrupt monolithic models of childhood. The aim of this paper is to tackle the first stage of life, demarcated from their nominal references and from the upbringing and formative experiences in which children participate. So, we will focus on the network of social relations in the period of childhood, making especial focus on language develops, religion, schooling and games. The crossing of our different thematic interests allows us to consider the complexity of knowledge and skills that come into play during the development of children. Methodologically, this text is based on an ethnographic approach, with frequent visits and periods of cohabitation, for more than a decade with Mbyá and Qom people, who lives within indigenous communities in the provinces of Chaco, Buenos Aires and Misiones, in Argentina. We made participant observation and interviews with children and their families, with the objective to include children's voices in our researches about the whole community.

Keywords: chidhood, indigenous people, schooling, upbringing

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Authors: Ghaemi Reza, Abdollahi Hamid, Dashti Elham

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Cloud computing poses a diversity of challenges in data mining operation arising out of the dynamic structure of data distribution as against the use of typical database scenarios in conventional architecture. Due to immense number of users seeking data on daily basis, there is a serious security concerns to cloud providers as well as data providers who put their data on the cloud computing environment. Big data analytics use compute intensive data mining algorithms (Hidden markov, MapReduce parallel programming, Mahot Project, Hadoop distributed file system, K-Means and KMediod, Apriori) that require efficient high performance processors to produce timely results. Data mining algorithms to solve or optimize the model parameters. The challenges that operation has to encounter is the successful transactions to be established with the existing virtual machine environment and the databases to be kept under the control. Several factors have led to the distributed data mining from normal or centralized mining. The approach is as a SaaS which uses multi-agent systems for implementing the different tasks of system. There are still some problems of data mining based on cloud computing, including design and selection of data mining algorithms.

Keywords: cloud computing, data mining, computing models, cloud services

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Authors: Vishnu Asokan, Zaid M. Paloba

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Flow over cavities is an important area of research due to the significant change in flow physics caused by cavity aspect ratio, free stream Mach number and the nature of upstream boundary layer approaching the cavity leading edge. Cavity flow finds application in aircraft wheel well, weapons bay, combustion chamber of scramjet engines, etc. These flows are highly unsteady, compressible and turbulent and it involves mass entrainment coupled with acoustics phenomenon. Variation of flow dynamics in an angled cavity with a heated and cooled pylon upstream to the cavity with spatial combinations of heat flux addition and removal to the wall studied numerically. The goal of study is to investigate the effect of energy addition, removal to the cavity walls and pylon cavity flow dynamics. Preliminary steady state numerical simulations on inclined cavities with heat addition have shown that wall pressure profiles, as well as the recirculation, are influenced by heat transfer to the compressible fluid medium. Such a hybrid control of cavity flow dynamics in the form of heat transfer and pylon geometry can open out greater opportunities in enhancement of mixing and flame holding requirements of supersonic combustors. Addition of pylon upstream to the cavity reduces the acoustic oscillations emanating from the geometry. A numerical unsteady analysis of supersonic flow past cavities exposed to cavity wall heating and cooling with heated and cooled pylon helps to get a clear idea about the oscillation suppression in the cavity. A Cavity of L/D 4 and aft wall angle 22 degree with an upstream pylon of h/D=1.5 mm with a wall angle 29 degree exposed to supersonic flow of Mach number 2 and heat flux of 40 W/cm² and -40 W/cm² modeled for the above study. In the preliminary study, the domain is modeled and validated numerically with a turbulence model of SST k-ω using an HLLC implicit scheme. Both qualitative and quantitative flow data extracted and analyzed using advanced CFD tools. Flow visualization is done using numerical Schlieren method as the fluid medium gives the density variation. The heat flux addition to the wall increases the secondary vortex size of the cavity and removal of energy leads to the reduction in vortex size. The flow field turbulence seems to be increasing at higher heat flux. The shear layer thickness increases as heat flux increases. The steady state analysis of wall pressure shows that there is variation on wall pressure as heat flux increases. Shift in frequency of unsteady wall pressure analysis is an interesting observation for the above study. The time averaged skin friction seems to be reducing at higher heat flux due to the variation in viscosity of fluid inside the cavity.

Keywords: energy addition, frequency shift, Numerical Schlieren, shear layer, vortex evolution

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Authors: E. A. Tkachenko, E. M. Rogova, V. V. Klimov

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One of the basic issues of development management is connected with performance measurement as a prerequisite for identifying the achievement of development objectives. The aim of our research is to develop an improved model of assessing a company’s development results. The model should take into account the cyclical nature of development and the high degree of uncertainty in dealing with numerous management tasks. Our hypotheses may be formulated as follows: Hypothesis 1. The cycle of a company’s development may be studied from the standpoint of a project cycle. To do that, methods and tools of project analysis are to be used. Hypothesis 2. The problem of the uncertainty when justifying managerial decisions within the framework of a company’s development cycle can be solved through the use of the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy logic. The reasoned justification of the validity of the hypotheses made is given in the suggested article. The fuzzy logic toolkit applies to the case of technology shift within an enterprise. It is proven that some restrictions in performance measurement that are incurred to conventional methods could be eliminated by implementation of the fuzzy logic apparatus in performance measurement models.

Keywords: logic, fuzzy sets, performance measurement, project analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Khaled M. Alhawiti

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Reading capability is a major segment of language competency. On the other hand, discovering topical writings at a fitting level for outside and second language learners is a test for educators. We address this issue utilizing natural language preparing innovation to survey reading level and streamline content. In the connection of outside and second-language learning, existing measures of reading level are not appropriate to this errand. Related work has demonstrated the profit of utilizing measurable language preparing procedures; we expand these thoughts and incorporate other potential peculiarities to measure intelligibility. In the first piece of this examination, we join characteristics from measurable language models, customary reading level measures and other language preparing apparatuses to deliver a finer technique for recognizing reading level. We examine the execution of human annotators and assess results for our finders concerning human appraisals. A key commitment is that our identifiers are trainable; with preparing and test information from the same space, our finders beat more general reading level instruments (Flesch-Kincaid and Lexile). Trainability will permit execution to be tuned to address the needs of specific gatherings or understudies.

Keywords: natural language processing, trainability, syntactic simplification tools, education

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Authors: Pham Quang Huy

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State budget is considered as an effective tool for controlling, adjusting and regulating the market economy of any countries. To ensure that the activities of the state in the fields of politics, economy and society has been efficiency, it requires major sources of certain budget. These financial funds are formed from tax revenues and tax revenues beyond. Therefore, the Governments need to have an accounting regime to manage the receipt, expenditure which are suitable for recording a full range of items. From that, it can help to increase the transparency and accountability in budget system. One of the main requirements in Vietnamese policies is to improve that accounting system of revenues and expenditures which can provide many reports to meet the information required of government and users, as well as directions to the trends of international standards requirements. By using quantitative research methods and analytical models to exploring factors, the main purpose of this article is to identify the factors affecting budget accounting and providing some direction for Vietnamese public sector in the future. The results indicated that Vietnam budget accounting has been impacted by seven factors and aims to implement three main orientations in the public sector units.

Keywords: state budget, accounting, IPSAS, budget management, government, public sector

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Authors: K.Narasimhulu, Y. Pydi Setty

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The objective of this present study is the optimization of process parameters in biosorption of Ni(II) and Cd(II) ions by Pseudomonas putida using Response Surface Methodology in a Packed bed bioreactor. The experimental data were also tested with theoretical models to find the best fit model. The present paper elucidates RSM as an efficient approach for predictive model building and optimization of Ni(II) and Cd(II) ions using Pseudomonas putida. In packed bed biosorption studies, comparison of the breakthrough curves of Ni(II) and Cd(II) for Agar immobilized and PAA immobilized Pseudomonas putida at optimum conditions of flow rate of 300 mL/h, initial metal ion concentration of 100 mg/L and bed height of 20 cm with weight of biosorbent of 12 g, it was found that the Agar immobilized Pseudomonas putida showed maximum percent biosorption and bed saturation occurred at 20 minutes. Optimization results of Ni(II) and Cd(II) by Pseudomonas putida from the Design Expert software were obtained as bed height of 19.93 cm, initial metal ion concentration of 103.85 mg/L, and flow rate of 310.57 mL/h. The percent biosorption of Ni(II) and Cd(II) is 87.2% and 88.2% respectively. The predicted optimized parameters are in agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: packed bed bioreactor, response surface mthodology, pseudomonas putida, biosorption, waste water

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Authors: Carlos Gonzalez, Neil Slatcher, Marcus Properzi, Kan Seah

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In many underground mining operations, shotcrete is used for permanent rock support. Shotcrete thickness is a critical measure of the success of this process. 3D Laser Mapping, in conjunction with Jetcrete, has developed a 3D laser scanning system specifically for measuring the thickness of shotcrete. The system is mounted on the shotcrete spraying machine and measures the rock faces before and after spraying. The calculated difference between the two 3D surface models is measured as the thickness of the sprayed concrete. Typical work patterns for the shotcrete process required a rapid and automatic system. The scanning takes place immediately before and after the application of the shotcrete so no convergence takes place in the interval between scans. Automatic alignment of scans without targets was implemented which allows for the possibility of movement of the spraying machine between scans. Case studies are presented where accuracy tests are undertaken and automatic audit reports are calculated. The use of 3D imaging data for the calculation of shotcrete thickness is an important tool for geotechnical engineers and contract managers, and this could become the new state-of-the-art methodology for the mining industry.

Keywords: 3D imaging, shotcrete, surface model, tunnel stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Wiwat Kittinaraporn, Napat Harnpornchai, Sutja Boonyachut

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This paper deals with the application of a novel neural network technique, so-called Support Vector Machine (SVM). The objective of this study is to explore the variable and parameter of forecasting factors in the construction industry to build up forecasting model for construction quantity in Thailand. The scope of the research is to study the non-residential construction quantity in Thailand. There are 44 sets of yearly data available, ranging from 1965 to 2009. The correlation between economic indicators and construction demand with the lag of one year was developed by Apichat Buakla. The selected variables are used to develop SVM models to forecast the non-residential construction quantity in Thailand. The parameters are selected by using ten-fold cross-validation method. The results are indicated in term of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE value for the non-residential construction quantity predicted by Epsilon-SVR in corporation with Radial Basis Function (RBF) of kernel function type is 5.90. Analysis of the experimental results show that the support vector machine modelling technique can be applied to forecast construction quantity time series which is useful for decision planning and management purpose.

Keywords: forecasting, non-residential, construction, support vector machines

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Authors: Tejeet Singh, Ishvneet Singh, Vinay Gupta

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The present study focussed on carrying out the creep analysis in an isotropic thick-walled composite cylindrical pressure vessel composed of aluminium matrix reinforced with silicon-carbide in particulate form. The creep behaviour of the composite material has been described by the threshold stress based creep law. The value of stress exponent appearing in the creep law was selected as 3, 5 and 8. The constitutive equations were developed using well known von-Mises yield criteria. Models were developed to find out the distributions of creep stresses and strain rate in thick-walled composite cylindrical pressure vessels under internal pressure. In order to obtain the stress distributions in the cylinder, the equilibrium equation of the continuum mechanics and the constitutive equations are solved together. It was observed that the radial stress, tangential stress and axial stress increases along with the radial distance. The cross-over was also obtained almost at the middle region of cylindrical vessel for tangential and axial stress for different values of stress exponent. The strain rates were also decreasing in nature along the entire radius.

Keywords: creep, composite, cylindrical vessel, internal pressure

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Authors: Tamás Hartványi, Ferenc Tóth

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European telecommunication distribution center performance is measured by service lead time and quality. Operation model is CTO (customized to order) namely, a high mix customization of telecommunication network equipment and parts. CTO operation contains material receiving, warehousing, network and server assembly to order and configure based on customer specifications. Variety of the product and orders does not support mass production structure. One of the success factors to satisfy customer is to have a proper aggregated planning method for the operation in order to have optimized human resources and highly efficient asset utilization. Research will investigate several methods and find proper way to have an order book simulation where practical optimization problem may contain thousands of variables and the simulation running times of developed algorithms were taken into account with high importance. There are two operation research models that were developed, customer demand is given in orders, no change over time, customer demands are given for product types, and changeover time is constant.

Keywords: CTO, aggregated planning, demand simulation, changeover time

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: Nicola Colaninno, Eugenio Morello

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The urban environment affects local-to-global climate and, in turn, suffers global warming phenomena, with worrying impacts on human well-being, health, social and economic activities. Physic-morphological features of the built-up space affect urban air temperature, locally, causing the urban environment to be warmer compared to surrounding rural. This occurrence, typically known as the Urban Heat Island (UHI), is normally assessed by means of air temperature from fixed weather stations and/or traverse observations or based on remotely sensed Land Surface Temperatures (LST). The information provided by ground weather stations is key for assessing local air temperature. However, the spatial coverage is normally limited due to low density and uneven distribution of the stations. Although different interpolation techniques such as Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Ordinary Kriging (OK), or Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) are used to estimate air temperature from observed points, such an approach may not effectively reflect the real climatic conditions of an interpolated point. Quantifying local UHI for extensive areas based on weather stations’ observations only is not practicable. Alternatively, the use of thermal remote sensing has been widely investigated based on LST. Data from Landsat, ASTER, or MODIS have been extensively used. Indeed, LST has an indirect but significant influence on air temperatures. However, high-resolution near-surface air temperature (NSAT) is currently difficult to retrieve. Here we have experimented Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) as an effective approach to enable NSAT estimation by accounting for spatial non-stationarity of the phenomenon. The model combines on-site measurements of air temperature, from fixed weather stations and satellite-derived LST. The approach is structured upon two main steps. First, a GWR model has been set to estimate NSAT at low resolution, by combining air temperature from discrete observations retrieved by weather stations (dependent variable) and the LST from satellite observations (predictor). At this step, MODIS data, from Terra satellite, at 1 kilometer of spatial resolution have been employed. Two time periods are considered according to satellite revisit period, i.e. 10:30 am and 9:30 pm. Afterward, the results have been downscaled at 30 meters of spatial resolution by setting a GWR model between the previously retrieved near-surface air temperature (dependent variable), the multispectral information as provided by the Landsat mission, in particular the albedo, and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), both at 30 meters. Albedo and DEM are now the predictors. The area under investigation is the Metropolitan City of Milan, which covers an area of approximately 1,575 km2 and encompasses a population of over 3 million inhabitants. Both models, low- (1 km) and high-resolution (30 meters), have been validated according to a cross-validation that relies on indicators such as R2, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). All the employed indicators give evidence of highly efficient models. In addition, an alternative network of weather stations, available for the City of Milano only, has been employed for testing the accuracy of the predicted temperatures, giving and RMSE of 0.6 and 0.7 for daytime and night-time, respectively.

Keywords: urban climate, urban heat island, geographically weighted regression, remote sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: J.Zambrano Nájera, M.Gómez Valentín

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Increases in urbanization during XX century, have brought as one major problem the increased of sediment production. Hydraulic erosion is one of the major causes of increasing of sediments in small urban catchments. Such increments in sediment yielding in header urban catchments can caused obstruction of drainage systems, making impossible to capture urban runoff, increasing runoff volumes and thus exacerbating problems of urban flooding. For these reasons, it is more and more important to study of sediment production in urban watershed for properly analyze and solve problems associated to sediments. The study of sediments production has improved with the use of mathematical modeling. For that reason, it is proposed a new physically based model applicable to small header urban watersheds that includes the advantages of distributed physically base models, but with more realistic data requirements. Additionally, in this paper the model proposed is compared with a lumped model, reviewing the results, the advantages and disadvantages between the both of them.

Keywords: erosion, hydrologic modeling, urban runoff, sediment modeling, sediment yielding, urban planning

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Authors: Medan Isaeva, Anna Degtyareva

Abstract:

Context: Biliary atresia is a common reason for liver transplants in children, and the Kasai procedure can potentially be successful in avoiding the need for transplantation. However, it is important to identify factors that influence surgical outcomes in order to optimize treatment and improve patient outcomes. Research aim: The aim of this study was to develop prognostic models to assess the outcomes of the Kasai procedure in children with biliary atresia. Methodology: This retrospective study analyzed data from 166 children with biliary atresia who underwent the Kasai procedure between 2002 and 2021. The effectiveness of the operation was assessed based on specific criteria, including post-operative stool color, jaundice reduction, and bilirubin levels. The study involved a comparative analysis of various parameters, such as gestational age, birth weight, age at operation, physical development, liver and spleen sizes, and laboratory values including bilirubin, ALT, AST, and others, measured pre- and post-operation. Ultrasonographic evaluations were also conducted pre-operation, assessing the hepatobiliary system and related quantitative parameters. The study was carried out by two experienced specialists in pediatric hepatology. Comparative analysis and multifactorial logistic regression were used as the primary statistical methods. Findings: The study identified several statistically significant predictors of a successful Kasai procedure, including the presence of the gallbladder and levels of cholesterol and direct bilirubin post-operation. A detectable gallbladder was associated with a higher probability of surgical success, while elevated post-operative cholesterol and direct bilirubin levels were indicative of a reduced chance of positive outcomes. Theoretical importance: The findings of this study contribute to the optimization of treatment strategies for children with biliary atresia undergoing the Kasai procedure. By identifying early predictive signs of success, clinicians can modify treatment plans and manage patient care more effectively and proactively. Data collection and analysis procedures: Data for this analysis were obtained from the health records of patients who received the Kasai procedure. Comparative analysis and multifactorial logistic regression were employed to analyze the data and identify significant predictors. Question addressed: The study addressed the question of identifying predictive factors for the success of the Kasai procedure in children with biliary atresia. Conclusion: The developed prognostic models serve as valuable tools for early detection of patients who are less likely to benefit from the Kasai procedure. This enables clinicians to modify treatment plans and manage patient care more effectively and proactively. Potential limitations of the study: The study has several limitations. Its retrospective nature may introduce biases and inconsistencies in data collection. Being single centered, the results might not be generalizable to wider populations due to variations in surgical and postoperative practices. Also, other potential influencing factors beyond the clinical, laboratory, and ultrasonographic parameters considered in this study were not explored, which could affect the outcomes of the Kasai operation. Future studies could benefit from including a broader range of factors.

Keywords: biliary atresia, kasai operation, prognostic model, native liver survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 34

Authors: Arash Najmaei, Jo Rhodes, Peter Lok, Zahra Sadeghinejad

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In this article, we endeavor to explore how a new business model comes into existence in the Australian cloud-computing eco-system. Findings from multiple case study methodology reveal that to develop a business model new ventures adopt a three-phase approach. In the first phase, labelled as business model ideation (BMID) various ideas for a viable business model are generated from both internal and external networks of the entrepreneurial team and the most viable one is chosen. Strategic consensus and commitment are generated in the second phase. This phase is a business modelling strategic action phase. We labelled this phase as business model strategic commitment (BMSC) because through commitment and the subsequent actions of executives resources are pooled, coordinated and allocated to the business model. Three complementary sets of resources shape the business model: managerial (MnRs), marketing (MRs) and technological resources (TRs). The third phase is the market-test phase where the business model is reified through the delivery of the intended value to customers and conversion of revenue into profit. We labelled this phase business model actualization (BMAC). Theoretical and managerial implications of these findings will be discussed and several directions for future research will be illuminated.

Keywords: entrepreneur business model, high-tech venture, resources, conversion of revenue

Procedia PDF Downloads 421

Authors: Giulio Mangano, Alberto De Marco, Giovanni Zenezini

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The concept of City Logistics (CL) has emerged to improve the impacts of last mile freight distribution in urban areas. In this paper, a System Dynamics (SD) model exploring the dynamics of the diffusion of a ICT platform for CL management across different populations is proposed. For the development of the model two sources have been used. On the one hand, the major diffusion variables and feedback loops are derived from a literature review of existing diffusion models. On the other hand, the parameters are represented by the value propositions delivered by the platform as a response to some of the users’ needs. To extract the most important value propositions the Business Model Canvas approach has been used. Such approach in fact focuses on understanding how a company can create value for her target customers. These variables and parameters are thus translated into a SD diffusion model with three different populations namely municipalities, logistics service providers, and own account carriers. Results show that, the three populations under analysis fully adopt the platform within the simulation time frame, highlighting a strong demand by different stakeholders for CL projects aiming at carrying out more efficient urban logistics operations.

Keywords: city logistics, simulation, system dynamics, business model

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Chun-Qing Li, Hassan Baji, Wei Yang

Abstract:

Corrosion of steel in reinforced concrete structures is a major problem worldwide. The volume expansion of corrosion products causes concrete cover cracking, which could lead to delamination of concrete cover. The time to cover cracking plays a key role to the assessment of serviceability of reinforced concrete structures subjected to corrosion. Many analytical, numerical, and empirical models have been developed to predict the time to cracking initiation due to corrosion. In this study, a numerical model based on finite element modeling of corrosion-induced cracking process is used. In order to predict the service life based on time to cover initiation, the numerical approach is coupled with a probabilistic procedure. In this procedure, all the influential factors affecting time to cover cracking are modeled as random variables. The results show that the time to cover cracking is highly variables. It is also shown that rust product expansion ratio and the size of more porous concrete zone around the rebar are the most influential factors in predicting service life of corrosion-affected structures.

Keywords: corrosion, crack width, probabilistic, service life

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Dongkwon Han, Sangho Kim, Sunil Kwon

Abstract:

Unconventional gas resources have dramatically changed the future energy landscape. Unlike conventional gas resources, the key challenges in unconventional gas have been the requirement that applies to advanced approaches for production forecasting due to uncertainty and complexity of fluid flow. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) model which integrates machine learning and data-driven approach was developed to predict productivity in shale gas. The database of 129 wells of Eagle Ford shale basin used for testing and training of the ANN model. The Input data related to hydraulic fracturing, well completion and productivity of shale gas were selected and the output data is a cumulative production. The performance of the ANN using all data sets, clustering and variables importance (VI) models were compared in the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). ANN model using all data sets, clustering, and VI were obtained as 44.22%, 10.08% (cluster 1), 5.26% (cluster 2), 6.35%(cluster 3), and 32.23% (ANN VI), 23.19% (SVM VI), respectively. The results showed that the pre-trained ANN model provides more accurate results than the ANN model using all data sets.

Keywords: unconventional gas, artificial neural network, machine learning, clustering, variables importance

Procedia PDF Downloads 177