Search results for: maturity transformation risk

Authors: Luis Fonseca, Filipe Cabral Pinto, Susana Sargento

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The increase of the world population, especially in large urban centers, has resulted in new challenges particularly with the control and optimization of public safety. Thus, in the present work, a solution is proposed for the prediction of criminal occurrences in a city based on historical data of incidents and demographic information. The entire research and implementation will be presented start with the data collection from its original source, the treatment and transformations applied to them, choice and the evaluation and implementation of the Machine Learning model up to the application layer. Classification models will be implemented to predict criminal risk for a given time interval and location. Machine Learning algorithms such as Random Forest, Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbors and Logistic Regression will be used to predict occurrences, and their performance will be compared according to the data processing and transformation used. The results show that the use of Machine Learning techniques helps to anticipate criminal occurrences, which contributed to the reinforcement of public security. Finally, the models were implemented on a platform that will provide an API to enable other entities to make requests for predictions in real-time. An application will also be presented where it is possible to show criminal predictions visually.

Keywords: crime prediction, machine learning, public safety, smart city

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Authors: Sunarti Sinaga, Hsueh-Jung Lu, Jia-Rong Lin

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Blue mackerel (Scomber australasicus) is a crucial target species for Taiwan coastal fisheries and has maintained its status as the highest-produced species. Timely measurement of spawning status is crucial for determining the correct management strategy for this species. The objective of this study was to determine size at maturity, fecundity, batch fecundity, and spawning frequency on the basis of samples collected from Nan-Fang-Ao fishing port in Yilan during the spawning season from 2017 to 2019. Histological sections indicated that the blue mackerel are multiple spawners. A higher percentage of female fish spawned at the peak of the gonadosomatic index. The 50% sizes at maturity were 32.02, 32.13, and 29.64 cm. Mean total fecundity (batch fecundity) was 165 (103), 229 (96), and 210 (68) oocytes per ovary-free weight (g) for 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively; fecundity was determined through observation of postovulatory follicles (POFs). The spawning frequencies (spawning fraction) in 2017, 2018, and 2019 were 3–10 days (0.13), 4–14 days (0.08), and 4–12 days (0.08), respectively. The spawning frequencies determined through the 3 estimated methods, namely the sums of (a) hydrated and Day 0 POFs; (b) Day 1+ POFs, and (c) all data combined, were 1 spawning event per 8, 10, and 9 days, respectively. The reproduction of the blue mackerel was greater in 2017 than it was in 2018 or 2019, as indicated by the higher batch fecundity and shorter spawning seasons. Environmental factors should also be considered as a major factor influencing successful reproduction and the spawning season.

Keywords: scomber australasicus, spawning frequency, batch fecundity, fecundity

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Authors: Yashar Ibragimov, Nino Berishvili

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Technological, economic and other innovation-related advances of the 21st century have influenced the old, traditional business models. Presently, organizational change has become an integral part of corporate strategy for the majority of businesses. Such shifts have resulted in both new challenges and opportunities. The expansion of the use of information and communication technologies has driven fundamental shifts towards digital change. Organizations are being forced to revise processes, goals and overall mission in order to stay competitive in the marketplace. However, the implementation of digital transformation brings uncertainty, causes stress and raises concerns about future jobs. The study employs systematic literature review to fill the gap in understanding relationship between employee motivation and commitment during the transformation. A conceptual model proposes the antecedents (OCB and Leader Member Exchange) of employee motivation and investigates its impact on employee commitment to change. The utilized model elucidates how to maintain employee motivation and commitment in the context of organizational transformation and sets the ground for future research.

Keywords: employee motivation, change commitment, change management, leader member exchange, organizational citizenship behavior

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Authors: David Nantes, George Gilbert

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There are a lot of risks that might crop up as a tunneling project develops, and it's crucial to be aware of them. Due to the unexpected nature of tunneling projects and the interconnectedness of risk occurrences, the risk assessment approach presents a significant challenge. The purpose of this study is to provide a hybrid FDEMATEL-ANP model to help prioritize risks during tunnel construction projects. The ambiguity in expert judgments and the relative severity of interdependencies across risk occurrences are both taken into consideration by this model, thanks to the Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (FDEMATEL). The Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used to rank priorities and assess project risks. The authors provide a case study of a subway tunneling construction project to back up the validity of their methodology. The results showed that the proposed method successfully isolated key risk factors and elucidated their interplay in the case study. The proposed method has the potential to become a helpful resource for evaluating dangers associated with tunnel construction projects.

Keywords: risk, prioritization, FDEMATEL, ANP, tunneling construction projects

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Authors: Jianghua Chen

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Sustainable urban development requires the coordination of economic growth and resource environment, and industrial transformation and upgrading is the key link. Based on the decoupling theory and the improved decoupling decomposition model, the quantitative evaluation and comprehensive analysis of the degree of decoupling between resource consumption and economic development in Jiangsu Province are conducted using the data related to the resource consumption and economic growth of the secondary and tertiary industries in Jiangsu Province from 2013 to 2018, as a way of exploring the sustainable development path of industrial transformation in Jiangsu Province. The results show that from the decoupling status, the degree of decoupling of economic development of the secondary industry to the required coke resources, water resources, and human resources is gradually deepening, and the decoupling index of economic development of the tertiary industry to the required water resources is fluctuating; from the perspective of the driving factors, the technological effect is the main driving factor to decouple the economic growth of Jiangsu Province to the resources, and the structural effect has a significant impact on the driving index of the decoupling of economic growth of the secondary and tertiary industries to the consumption of resources in Jiangsu Province. Finally, we discuss the difficulties of industrial transformation and layout faced by Jiangsu Province at present.

Keywords: resource consumption, economic growth, industrial transformation, decoupling theory

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Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

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Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

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Authors: Emma Groenewald

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In 1994, numerous policies of a democratic dispensation envisage social justice and the transformation of the South Africa society. The drive for transformation and social justice resulted in an increasing number of university students from diverse backgrounds, which in turn, lead to the establishment of Sol Plaatje University (SPU) in 2014. A re-curriculated B. Ed. programme at SPU aims to equip students with knowledge and skills to realise the aim of social justice and to enhance the transformation of the South African society. The aim of this study is to explore the experiences and perceptions of students at a diverse university campus on a curriculum that aims to promote social justice. Four education modules, with the assumption that it reflects social justice content, were selected. Four students, representative of different ethnic and language groupings found at the SPU, were chosen as participants. Data were generated by the participants through four reflective exercises on each of the modules, spread over a period of four years. The module aims, linked with the narratives of the participants' perceptions and experiences of each module, provided an overview of the enacted curriculum. A qualitative research design with an interpretivist approach informed by Vygotsky's theory of learning was used. The participants' experiences of the four modules were analysed, and their views were interpreted. The students' narratives shed light on the strengths and weaknesses of how the B.Ed. Curriculum works towards social justice and revealed student's perceptions of otherness. From the narratives it became apparent that module did promote a social justice orientation in prospective teachers trained at a university.

Keywords: student diversity, social justice, transformation, teacher education

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Authors: Kirill Neverov

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In the paper is considered issues of civic participation in context of changing political landscape of Argentina. Last two years, this South American country faced a drastic change of political course. Pro-peronist, left-oriented administration of Christina Fernandez de Kirchner were replaced by right of center Mauricio Macri's one. The study is focused on inclusive policy in conditions of political transformations. We use network analysis to figure out which actors are involved in participation and to describe connections between them. As a resuflt, we plan to receive map of transactions which form inclusive policy in Argentina.

Keywords: civic participation, Argentina, political transformation, network analysis

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

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Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cybersecurity, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005

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Authors: Prompt Udomdech, Eleni Papadonikolaki, Andrew Davies

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Building information modelling (BIM) is the major technological trend amongst built environment organisations. Digitalising businesses and operations, BIM brings forth a digital transformation in any built environment industry. The adoption of BIM presents challenges for organisations, especially small- and medium-sizes enterprises (SMEs). The main problem for built-environment SMEs is the lack of project actors with adequate BIM competences. The research highlights learning in projects as the key and explores into the learning of BIM in projects of designers and engineers within Thai design and engineering SMEs. The study uncovers three impeding attributes, which are: a) lack of English proficiency; b) unfamiliarity with digital technologies; and c) absence of public standards. This research expands on the literature on BIM competences and adoption.

Keywords: BIM competences and adoption, digital transformation, learning in projects, SMEs, and developing built environment industry

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

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Authors: Bhawat Chiamjinnawat

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The agri-food market transformation has implied market growth for the fruit industry in Thailand. This article focuses on analysis of farmer competence and farm resources which affect market strategies used by fruit farmers in Chanthaburi province of Thailand. The survey data were collected through the use of face-to-face interviews with structured questionnaires. This study identified 14 drivers related to farmer competence and farm resources of which some had significant effect on the decision to use either high-value markets or traditional markets. The results suggest that farmers who used high-value markets were better educated and they had longer experience and larger sized business. Identifying the important factors that match with the market transformation provides policy with opportunities to support the fruit farmers to increase their market power. Policies that promote business expansion of agricultural cooperatives and knowledge sharing among farmers are recommended to reduce limitations due to limited knowledge, low experience, and small business sizes.

Keywords: farmer competence, farm resources, fruit industry, high-value markets, Thailand

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

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Authors: Magid Maatallah

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The problem is, investment management in modern conditions boils down to risk management which is very underdeveloped in Islamic financial theory and practice. Add to this the fact that, in Islamic perception, this is one of the areas of conventional finance in need of drastic reforms. This need was recently underlined by the story of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM ), ( told by Roger Lowenstein in his book, When Genius Failed, Random House, 2000 ). So we face a double challenge, to develop Islamic techniques of risk management and to see that these new techniques are free from the ills with which conventional methods are suffering. This is different from the challenge faced in the middle of twentieth century, to develop a method of financial intermediation free of interest.Risk was always there, especially in business. But industrialization brought risks unknown in trade and agriculture. Industrial production often involves long periods of time .The longer the period of production the more the uncertainty. The scope of the market has expanded to cover the whole world, introducing new kinds of risk. More than a thousand years ago, when Islamic laws were being written, the nature and scope of risk and uncertainty was different. However, something can still be learnt which, in combination with the modern experience, should enable us to realize the Shariah objectives of justice, fairness and efficiency.

Keywords: financial markets, Islamic framework, risk management, investment

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Authors: Hotlan Siagian, Han Tae Hee

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This study aims to examine the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement on the supply chain risk management through buyer-supplier relationship. The population of the research is 44 Korean companies domiciled in East and Central Java of Indonesia. The respondent consists of a top management level from each company. Data collection used a questionnaire designed with five-item Likert scale. Collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique with SmartPLS software version 3.0 to examine the hypotheses. The result revealed that supplier trust has an effect on supply chain risk management, top management involvement affects supply chain risk management, supplier trust influences buyer-supplier relationship, top management involvement affects the buyer-supplier relationship, and buyer-supplier relationship affects supply chain risk management. The last finding is that buyer-supplier relationship empirically mediates the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement.

Keywords: buyer supplier relationship, supplier trust, supply chain risk management, top management involvement

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Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

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The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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Authors: P. Joongsiri, K. Pattanapisuth, P. Siwatintuko, S. Vasupongayya

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This paper presents a case study of developing a four-year plan for the information technology department at the Faculty of Engineering, Prince of Songkla University, Thailand. This work can be used as a case study for other in-house information technology department in a higher educational environment. The result of this paper is the guideline of the four year plan creation process which is generated by analyzing the related theories and several best practices.

Keywords: strategic plan, management information system, information technology department governance, best practices, organization transformation

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Authors: J. Gonzalez, P. Jimenez, C. Isaza

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Palms have different characteristics that make them vulnerable; that is the case of the Chamaedorea linearis, with the presence of solitary stems of small diameter and medium leaves, culturally harvested, and in religious festivities used. Additionally, they present a weak apical meristem as the only emergency point, slow development and growth, and an affectation due to the high rate of deforestation in Colombia. Propagation of this species can improve the pressure on wild populations and help their survival in the environment. In this study was used in 177 plants biosolids humus from the Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP), located at the UMNG Campus Cajica (Cundinamarca, Colombia). The experiment used a control and two treatments with 10% and 20% of humus. During the process, the variables evaluated were number of leaves, percentage of chlorophyll, stem length, and estimated leaf area. The data set were taking during 14 weeks before the reproductive maturity, evidencing that the most representative development of the palms was in the treatment of 20%, plants in this treatment presented major number of leaves, larger stems, a high quantity of chlorophyll, and was a first treatment that present pinnate leaves them represent an important point in maturity process. The research gives an opportunity to improve times of growth in another species of palms and plants (Product result from INV ING 2986 UMNG).

Keywords: biosolids, humus, growth, palms, wastewater treatment plant, WWTP

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal

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In today’s world, companies are operating in dynamic, uncertain and ambiguous business environments. Globally, more companies are failing due to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors than ever. Corporate governance and risk management are intertwined in nature. For decades, corporate governance and risk management have been influenced by internal and external factors. Three schools of thought have influenced risk governance for decades: Agency theory, Contingency theory, and Institutional theory. Agency theory argues that agents have interests conflicting with principal interests and the information problem. Contingency theory suggests that risk management adoption is influenced by internal and external factors, while Institutional theory suggests that organizations legitimize risk management with regulators, competitors, and professional bodies. The conflicting objectives of theories have created problems for executives in organizations in the adoption of Risk Governance. So far, there are many studies that discussed risk culture and the role of actors in risk governance, but there are rare studies discussing the role of risk culture in the adoption of risk governance from a leadership style perspective. This study explores the adoption of risk governance in two contrasting industries, such as the Insurance and energy business, to understand whether risk governance is influenced by internal/external factors or whether risk culture is influenced by leaders. We draw empirical evidence by comparing the cases of an Indian insurance company and a renewable energy-based firm in India. We interviewed more than 20 senior executives of companies and collected annual reports, risk management policies, and more than 10 PPTs and other reports from 2017 to 2024. We visited the company for follow-up questions several times. The findings of my research revealed that both companies have used risk governance for strategic renewal of the company. Insurance companies use a transactional leadership style based on performance and reward for improving risk, while energy companies use rather symbolic management to make debt restructuring meaningful for stakeholders. Overall, both companies turned from loss-making to profitable ones in a few years. This comparative study highlights the role of different leadership styles in the adoption of risk governance. The study is also distinct as previous research rarely studied risk governance in two contrasting industries in reference to leadership styles.

Keywords: leadership style, corporate governance, risk management, risk culture, strategic renewal

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Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

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In biomedical researches and randomized clinical trials, the most commonly interested outcomes are time-to-event so-called survival data. The importance of robust models in this context is to compare the effect of randomly controlled experimental groups that have a sense of causality. Causal estimation is the scientific concept of comparing the pragmatic effect of treatments conditional to the given covariates rather than assessing the simple association of response and predictors. Hence, the causal effect based semiparametric transformation model was proposed to estimate the effect of treatment with the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Due to its high flexibility and robustness, the semiparametric transformation model which shall be applied in this paper has been given much more attention for estimation of a causal effect in modeling left-truncated and right censored survival data. Despite its wide applications and popularity in estimating unknown parameters, the maximum likelihood estimation technique is quite complex and burdensome in estimating unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function in the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Thus, to ease the complexity we proposed the modified estimating equations. After intuitive estimation procedures, the consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators were derived and the characteristics of the estimators in the finite sample performance of the proposed model were illustrated via simulation studies and Stanford heart transplant real data example. To sum up the study, the bias of covariates was adjusted via estimating the density function for truncation variable which was also incorporated in the model as a covariate in order to relax the independence assumption of failure time and truncation time. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm was described for the estimation of iterative unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function. In addition, the causal effect was derived by the ratio of the cumulative hazard function of active and passive experiments after adjusting for bias raised in the model due to the truncation variable.

Keywords: causal estimation, EM algorithm, semiparametric transformation models, time-to-event outcomes, time-varying covariate

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Authors: Hassan Sher

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God has made this world with all of his essences and beautified it with his countless blessings. In Islam, no doubt, beauty is a very important characteristic but also an aspect of the body and the heart. In a world where the standards of beauty seem to change from year to year according to trends and norms. Moreover, in this world, many people want to look good and feel satisfied and will be willing to go through many ways for their ideal look. likewise, several products came into use for beautifying, cleansing, and promoting attractiveness. These products include components of cosmetics, they are utilized for health and beauty purposes. There are concerns regarding the existence of harmful or ḥarām chemicals, but With the advancement in (technology), it results in the transformation of unlawful and forbidden cosmetic products into permissible several new ingredients and products. The process of transforming certain items or products from one form to another, Muslim jurists tend to use terms like Istiḥālah (transformation).Istiḥālah is an Islamic principle unknown to many Muslims. LinguisticallyIstiḥālah carries the meaning of a transformation or a change in the nature of a thing into something else.According to the religious contact, Istiḥālah signifies a turning of a matter from a state of impurity or inedibility into a matter of different nature, name, properties, and characteristics (colour, taste, and smell) (Zuhayli, 1997). This principle, which is unanimously accepted by Muslim scholars, are breaths of fresh air to Muslims suffering from the suffocation of excessive prohibition. This will allow the invention to be utilized fully. This research tends to highlight the different ideological concepts of Istiḥālah from the perspective of Islamic Shariah and jurisprudence and its application in cosmetic products. However, the study focuses on the issues related to alcohol and pig ingredients in beauty products.

Keywords: istiḥālah. harām, jurisprudence, cosmetic, pig

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Authors: Samuel Capintero, Ole H. Petersen

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This paper examines the utilization of public-private partnerships for the building and operation of wastewater treatment plants. Our research focuses on risk allocation in this kind of projects. Our analysis builds on more than hundred wastewater treatment plants built and operated through PPP projects in Aragon (Spain). The paper illustrates the consequences of an inadequate management of construction risk and an unsuitable transfer of demand risk in wastewater treatment plants. It also shows that the involvement of many public bodies at local, regional and national level further increases the complexity of this kind of projects and make time delays more likely.

Keywords: wastewater, treatment plants, PPP, construction

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefiting companies. Usability is also the best factor that acts as a balance for both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk can be defined as a potential usability risk factor that a chosen action or activity may lead to a possible loss or an undesirable outcome. This could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible involved usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans to reduce potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: usability, usability risk, risk management, risk mitigation, delphi study

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Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

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Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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Authors: Stavros Palavouzis, Alexandra Triantafyllopoulou, Aliki Tzima, Epaminondas Paplomatas

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Mating-type genes are present in most filamentous fungi, even though teleomorphs for all species have not been recorded. Our study tries to explore the effect of different growth conditions on the expression of MAT genes in Neofusicoccum mediterraneum. As such, selected isolates were grown in potato dextrose broth or in water agar supplemented with pine needles under a 12 h photoperiod, as well as in constant darkness. Mycelia and spores were collected at different time points, and RNA extraction was performed, with the extracted product being used for cDNA synthesis. New primers for MAT gene expression were designed while qPCR results are underway. The second part of the study involved the isolation and cloning in a selected pGEM-T vector of the Botryosphaeria dothidea MAT1 1 1 and MAT1 2 1 mating genes, including flanking regions. As a next step, the genes were amplified using newly designed primers with engineered restriction sites. Amplicons were excised and subsequently sub-cloned in appropriate binary vectors. The constructs were afterward inserted into Agrobacterium tumefaciens and utilized for Agrobacterium-mediated transformation (ATMT) of Neofusicoccum mediterraneum. At the same time, the transformation of a Verticillium dahliae tomato race 1 strain (70V) was performed as a control. While the procedure was successful in regards to V. dahliae, transformed strains of N. mediterraneum could not be obtained. At present, a new transformation protocol, which utilizes a combination of protoplast and Agro transformation, is being evaluated.

Keywords: anamorph, heterothallism, perithecia, pycnidia, sexual stage

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

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This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), risk factors

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Authors: R. Bouhennache, T. Bouden, A. A. Taleb, A. Chaddad

Abstract:

In this paper we propose a method to map the urban areas. The method uses an arithmetic calculation processed from the land features indexes and Tasseled cap transformation TC of multi spectral Thematic Mapper Landsat TM image. For this purpose the derived indexes image from the original image such SAVI the soil adjusted vegetation index, UI the urban Index, and EBBI the enhanced built up and bareness index were staked to form a new image and the bands were uncorrelated, also the Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) and Spectral Information Divergence (SID) supervised classification approaches were first applied on the new image TM data using the reference spectra of the spectral library and subsequently the four urban, vegetation, water and soil land cover categories were extracted with their accuracy assessment.The urban features were represented using a logic calculation applied to the brightness, UI-SAVI, NDBI-greenness and EBBI- brightness data sets. The study applied to Blida and mentioned that the urban features can be mapped with an accuracy ranging from 92 % to 95%.

Keywords: EBBI, SAVI, Tasseled Cap Transformation, UI

Procedia PDF Downloads 484

Authors: Jorge M. Uribe

Abstract:

We propose a methodology for setting the price of an insurance contract targeted to manage the risk associated with weather conditions that affect variable renewable energy generation. The methodology relies on conditional quantile regressions to estimate the weather risk of a solar panel. It is illustrated using real daily radiation and weather data for three cities in Spain (Valencia, Barcelona and Madrid) from February 2/2004 to January 22/2019. We also adapt the concepts of value at risk and expected short fall from finance to this context, to provide a complete panorama of what we label as weather risk. The methodology is easy to implement and can be used by insurance companies to price a contract with the aforementioned characteristics when data about similar projects and accurate cash flow projections are lacking. Our methodology assigns a higher price to an insurance product with the stated characteristics in Madrid, compared to Valencia and Barcelona. This is consistent with Madrid showing the largest interquartile range of operational deficits and it is unrelated to the average value deficit, which illustrates the importance of our proposal.

Keywords: insurance, weather, vre, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

Abstract:

In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

Procedia PDF Downloads 592