Search results for: Cox regression model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 18424

Search results for: Cox regression model

14434 Flexible Mixed Model Assembly Line Design: A Strategy to Respond for Demand Uncertainty at Automotive Part Manufacturer in Indonesia

Authors: T. Yuri, M. Zagloel, Inaki M. Hakim, Tegu Bintang Nugraha

Abstract:

In an era of customer centricity, automotive parts manufacturer in Indonesia must be able to keep up with the uncertainty and fluctuation of consumer demand. Flexible Manufacturing System (FMS) is a strategy to react to predicted and unpredicted changes of demand in automotive industry. This research is about flexible mixed model assembly line design through Value Stream Mapping (VSM) and Line Balancing in mixed model assembly line prior to simulation. It uses value stream mapping to identify and reduce waste while finding the best position to add or reduce manpower. Line balancing is conducted to minimize or maximize production rate while increasing assembly line productivity and efficiency. Results of this research is a recommendation of standard work combination for specifics demand scenario which can enhance assembly line efficiency and productivity.

Keywords: automotive industry, demand uncertainty, flexible assembly system, line balancing, value stream mapping

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14433 Attention Problems among Adolescents: Examining Educational Environments

Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang, Georgianna Duarte

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This study investigated the attention problems with the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). Two thousand eight hundred and ninety-four adolescents were surveyed by using a stratified sampling method. We examined the relationships between relevant background variables and attention problems. Multiple regression models were applied to analyze the data. Relevant variables such as sports activities, hobbies, age, grade and the number of close friends were included in this study as predictive variables. The analysis results indicated that educational environments and extracurricular activities are important factors which influence students’ attention problems.

Keywords: adolescents, ASEBA, attention problems, educational environments, stratified sampling

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14432 Community Benefitting through Tourism: DASTA-Thailand Model

Authors: Jutamas Wisansing, Thanakarn Vongvisitsin, Udom Hongchatikul

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Designated Areas for Sustainable Tourism Administration (DASTA) is a public organization, dedicating to sustainable tourism development in 6 designated areas in Thailand. This paper provides rich reflections from a decade of DASTA, formulating an advanced model to deepen our understanding of 2 key intertwining issues; 1) what are the new landscapes of actors for community based tourism and 2) who are the benefactors and beneficiaries of tourism development within the community? An action research approach was used, enabling the process and evidence-based cases to be better captured. The aim is to build theoretical foundation through 13 communities/cases, which have engaged in community based tourism pilot projects. Drawing from emic and qualitative research, specific and contextual phenomenon provides succinct patterns of ‘Community Benefitting through Tourism (CbtT)’ model. The re-definition of the 2 key issues helps shape the interlinking of actors; practicalities of inclusive tourism and inter-sectoral framework and its value chain will also be set forth. In tourism sector, community members could be active primarily on the supply side as employees, entrepreneurs and local heritage experts. CbtT when well defined stimulates the entire value chain of local economy while promoting social innovation through positive dialogue with wider actors. Collaboration with a new set of actors who are from the tourism-related businesses and non-tourism related businesses create better impacts on mutual benefits.

Keywords: community based tourism, community benefitting through tourism -CbtT DASTA model, sustainable tourism in thailand, value chain and inclusive business

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14431 Reconstructability Analysis for Landslide Prediction

Authors: David Percy

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Landslides are a geologic phenomenon that affects a large number of inhabited places and are constantly being monitored and studied for the prediction of future occurrences. Reconstructability analysis (RA) is a methodology for extracting informative models from large volumes of data that work exclusively with discrete data. While RA has been used in medical applications and social science extensively, we are introducing it to the spatial sciences through applications like landslide prediction. Since RA works exclusively with discrete data, such as soil classification or bedrock type, working with continuous data, such as porosity, requires that these data are binned for inclusion in the model. RA constructs models of the data which pick out the most informative elements, independent variables (IVs), from each layer that predict the dependent variable (DV), landslide occurrence. Each layer included in the model retains its classification data as a primary encoding of the data. Unlike other machine learning algorithms that force the data into one-hot encoding type of schemes, RA works directly with the data as it is encoded, with the exception of continuous data, which must be binned. The usual physical and derived layers are included in the model, and testing our results against other published methodologies, such as neural networks, yields accuracy that is similar but with the advantage of a completely transparent model. The results of an RA session with a data set are a report on every combination of variables and their probability of landslide events occurring. In this way, every combination of informative state combinations can be examined.

Keywords: reconstructability analysis, machine learning, landslides, raster analysis

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14430 The Determinants of Financing to Deposit Ratio of Islamic Bank in Malaysia

Authors: Achsania Hendratmi, Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum, Fatin Fadhilah Hasib, Nisful Laila

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The research aimed to know the influence of Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Return on Assets (ROA) and Size of the Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR) Islamic Banks in Malaysia by using eleven Islamic Banks in Indonesia and fifteen Islamic Banks in Malaysia in the period 2012 to 2016 as samples. The research used a quantitative approach method, and the analysis technique used multiple linear regression. Based on the result of t-test (partial), CAR, ROA and size significantly affect of FDR. While the results of f-test (simultaneous) showed that CAR, ROA and Size significant effect on FDR.

Keywords: capital adequacy ratio, financing to deposit ratio, return on assets, size

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14429 Technical Evaluation of Upgrading a Simple Gas Turbine Fired by Diesel to a Combined Cycle Power Plant in Kingdom of Suadi Arabistan Using WinSim Design II Software

Authors: Salman Obaidoon, Mohamed Hassan, Omer Bakather

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As environmental regulations increase, the need for a clean and inexpensive energy is becoming necessary these days using an available raw material with high efficiency and low emissions of toxic gases. This paper presents a study on modifying a gas turbine power plant fired by diesel, which is located in Saudi Arabia in order to increase the efficiency and capacity of the station as well as decrease the rate of emissions. The studied power plant consists of 30 units with different capacities and total net power is 1470 MW. The study was conducted on unit number 25 (GT-25) which produces 72.3 MW with 29.5% efficiency. In the beginning, the unit was modeled and simulated by using WinSim Design II software. In this step, actual unit data were used in order to test the validity of the model. The net power and efficiency obtained from software were 76.4 MW and 32.2% respectively. A difference of about 6% was found in the simulated power plant compared to the actual station which means that the model is valid. After the validation of the model, the simple gas turbine power plant was converted to a combined cycle power plant (CCPP). In this case, the exhausted gas released from the gas turbine was introduced to a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG), which consists of three heat exchangers: an economizer, an evaporator and a superheater. In this proposed model, many scenarios were conducted in order to get the optimal operating conditions. The net power of CCPP was increased to 116.4 MW while the overall efficiency of the unit was reached to 49.02%, consuming the same amount of fuel for the gas turbine power plant. For the purpose of comparing the rate of emissions of carbon dioxide on each model. It was found that the rate of CO₂ emissions was decreased from 15.94 kg/s to 9.22 kg/s by using the combined cycle power model as a result of reducing of the amount of diesel from 5.08 kg/s to 2.94 kg/s needed to produce 76.5 MW. The results indicate that the rate of emissions of carbon dioxide was decreased by 42.133% in CCPP compared to the simple gas turbine power plant.

Keywords: combined cycle power plant, efficiency, heat recovery steam generator, simulation, validation, WinSim design II software

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14428 The Impact of Treatment of Latent Tuberculosis on the Incidence: The Case of Algeria

Authors: Schehrazad Selmane

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We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended.

Keywords: deterministic model, reproduction number, stability, tuberculosis

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14427 Optimization of Air Pollution Control Model for Mining

Authors: Zunaira Asif, Zhi Chen

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The sustainable measures on air quality management are recognized as one of the most serious environmental concerns in the mining region. The mining operations emit various types of pollutants which have significant impacts on the environment. This study presents a stochastic control strategy by developing the air pollution control model to achieve a cost-effective solution. The optimization method is formulated to predict the cost of treatment using linear programming with an objective function and multi-constraints. The constraints mainly focus on two factors which are: production of metal should not exceed the available resources, and air quality should meet the standard criteria of the pollutant. The applicability of this model is explored through a case study of an open pit metal mine, Utah, USA. This method simultaneously uses meteorological data as a dispersion transfer function to support the practical local conditions. The probabilistic analysis and the uncertainties in the meteorological conditions are accomplished by Monte Carlo simulation. Reasonable results have been obtained to select the optimized treatment technology for PM2.5, PM10, NOx, and SO2. Additional comparison analysis shows that baghouse is the least cost option as compared to electrostatic precipitator and wet scrubbers for particulate matter, whereas non-selective catalytical reduction and dry-flue gas desulfurization are suitable for NOx and SO2 reduction respectively. Thus, this model can aid planners to reduce these pollutants at a marginal cost by suggesting control pollution devices, while accounting for dynamic meteorological conditions and mining activities.

Keywords: air pollution, linear programming, mining, optimization, treatment technologies

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14426 Preliminary Conceptions of 3D Prototyping Model to Experimental Investigation in Hypersonic Shock Tunnels

Authors: Thiago Victor Cordeiro Marcos, Joao Felipe de Araujo Martos, Ronaldo de Lima Cardoso, David Romanelli Pinto, Paulo Gilberto de Paula Toro, Israel da Silveira Rego, Antonio Carlos de Oliveira

Abstract:

Currently, the use of 3D rapid prototyping, also known as 3D printing, has been investigated by some universities around the world as an innovative technique, fast, flexible and cheap for a direct plastic models manufacturing that are lighter and with complex geometries to be tested for hypersonic shock tunnel. Initially, the purpose is integrated prototyped parts with metal models that actually are manufactured through of the conventional machining and hereafter replace them with completely prototyped models. The mechanical design models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel are based on conventional manufacturing processes, therefore are limited forms and standard geometries. The use of 3D rapid prototyping offers a range of options that enables geometries innovation and ways to be used for the design new models. The conception and project of a prototyped model for hypersonic shock tunnel should be rethought and adapted when comparing the conventional manufacturing processes, in order to fully exploit the creativity and flexibility that are allowed by the 3D prototyping process. The objective of this paper is to compare the conception and project of a 3D rapid prototyping model and a conventional machining model, while showing the advantages and disadvantages of each process and the benefits that 3D prototyping can bring to the manufacture of models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel.

Keywords: 3D printing, 3D prototyping, experimental research, hypersonic shock tunnel

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14425 Reliability-Based Life-Cycle Cost Model for Engineering Systems

Authors: Reza Lotfalian, Sudarshan Martins, Peter Radziszewski

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The effect of reliability on life-cycle cost, including initial and maintenance cost of a system is studied. The failure probability of a component is used to calculate the average maintenance cost during the operation cycle of the component. The standard deviation of the life-cycle cost is also calculated as an error measure for the average life-cycle cost. As a numerical example, the model is used to study the average life cycle cost of an electric motor.

Keywords: initial cost, life-cycle cost, maintenance cost, reliability

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14424 Modeling and Simulation of a Hybrid System Solar Panel and Wind Turbine in the Quingeo Heritage Center in Ecuador

Authors: Juan Portoviejo Brito, Daniel Icaza Alvarez, Christian Castro Samaniego

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In this article, we present the modeling, simulations, and energy conversion analysis of the solar-wind system for the Quingeo Heritage Center in Ecuador. A numerical model was constructed based on the 19 equations, it was coded in MATLAB R2017a, and the results were compared with the experimental data of the site. The model is built with the purpose of using it as a computer development for the optimization of resources and designs of hybrid systems in the Parish of Quingeo and its surroundings. The model obtained a fairly similar pattern compared to the data and curves obtained in the field experimentally and detailed in manuscript. It is important to indicate that this analysis has been carried out so that in the near future one or two of these power generation systems can be exploited in a massive way according to the budget assigned by the Parish GAD of Quingeo or other national or international organizations with the purpose of preserving this unique colonial helmet in Ecuador.

Keywords: hybrid system, wind turbine, modeling, simulation, Smart Grid, Quingeo Azuay Ecuador

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14423 Deliberation of Daily Evapotranspiration and Evaporative Fraction Based on Remote Sensing Data

Authors: J. Bahrawi, M. Elhag

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Estimation of evapotranspiration is always a major component in water resources management. Traditional techniques of calculating daily evapotranspiration based on field measurements are valid only for local scales. Earth observation satellite sensors are thus used to overcome difficulties in obtaining daily evapotranspiration measurements on regional scale. The Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model was adopted to estimate daily evapotranspiration and relative evaporation along with other land surface energy fluxes. The model requires agro-climatic data that improve the model outputs. Advance Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and Medium Spectral Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) imageries were used to estimate the daily evapotranspiration and relative evaporation over the entire Nile Delta region in Egypt supported by meteorological data collected from six different weather stations located within the study area. Daily evapotranspiration maps derived from SEBS model show a strong agreement with actual ground-truth data taken from 92 points uniformly distributed all over the study area. Moreover, daily evapotranspiration and relative evaporation are strongly correlated. The reliable estimation of daily evapotranspiration supports the decision makers to review the current land use practices in terms of water management, while enabling them to propose proper land use changes.

Keywords: daily evapotranspiration, relative evaporation, SEBS, AATSR, MERIS, Nile Delta

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14422 Finite Element Modeling of the Mechanical Behavior of Municipal Solid Waste Incineration Bottom Ash with the Mohr-Coulomb Model

Authors: Le Ngoc Hung, Abriak Nor Edine, Binetruy Christophe, Benzerzour Mahfoud, Shahrour Isam, Patrice Rivard

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Bottom ash from Municipal Solid Waste Incineration (MSWI) can be viewed as a typical granular material because these industrial by-products result from the incineration of various domestic wastes. MSWI bottom ashes are mainly used in road engineering in substitution of the traditional natural aggregates. As the characterization of their mechanical behavior is essential in order to use them, specific studies have been led over the past few years. In the first part of this paper, the mechanical behavior of MSWI bottom ash is studied with triaxial tests. After analysis of the experiment results, the simulation of triaxial tests is carried out by using the software package CESAR-LCPC. As the first approach in modeling of this new class material, the Mohr-Coulomb model was chosen to describe the evolution of material under the influence of external mechanical actions.

Keywords: bottom ash, granular material, triaxial test, mechanical behavior, simulation, Mohr-Coulomb model, CESAR-LCPC

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14421 Modeling and Optimal Control of Pneumonia Disease with Cost Effective Strategies

Authors: Getachew Tilahun, Oluwole Makinde, David Malonza

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We propose and analyze a non-linear mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of pneumonia disease in a population of varying size. The deterministic compartmental model is studied using stability theory of differential equations. The effective reproduction number is obtained and also the local and global asymptotically stability conditions for the disease free and as well as for the endemic equilibria are established. The model exhibit a backward bifurcation and the sensitivity indices of the basic reproduction number to the key parameters are determined. Using Pontryagin’s maximum principle, the optimal control problem is formulated with three control strategies; namely disease prevention through education, treatment and screening. The cost effectiveness analysis of the adopted control strategies revealed that the combination of prevention and treatment is the most cost effective intervention strategies to combat the pneumonia pandemic. Numerical simulation is performed and pertinent results are displayed graphically.

Keywords: cost effectiveness analysis, optimal control, pneumonia dynamics, stability analysis, numerical simulation

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14420 BIASS in the Estimation of Covariance Matrices and Optimality Criteria

Authors: Juan M. Rodriguez-Diaz

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The precision of parameter estimators in the Gaussian linear model is traditionally accounted by the variance-covariance matrix of the asymptotic distribution. However, this measure can underestimate the true variance, specially for small samples. Traditionally, optimal design theory pays attention to this variance through its relationship with the model's information matrix. For this reason it seems convenient, at least in some cases, adapt the optimality criteria in order to get the best designs for the actual variance structure, otherwise the loss in efficiency of the designs obtained with the traditional approach may be very important.

Keywords: correlated observations, information matrix, optimality criteria, variance-covariance matrix

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14419 Administration Model for the College of Film, Television, Multimedia and Performing Arts, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University

Authors: Somdech Rungsrisawat

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The objective of this research was to investigate how to develop an appropriate management and administration model for the College of Film, Television, Multimedia and Performing Arts at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. A combination of qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis methods was employed. The data collection was from the 8 experts who were the academic staff and entrepreneurs in films, television, multimedia and performing arts, and from 471 students studying in the communication arts field. The findings of this research paper presented the appropriate management and administration model for the College of Film, Television, Multimedia and Performing Arts, which depended on 3 factors: [i] the marketing management and the supporting facilities such as buildings, equipments and accessibility for students to the college; [ii] the competency of academic staff or lecturers and supporting staff; and [iii] career opportunities after graduation.

Keywords: educational institution management, educational management, learning resources, non-formal education, Thai qualifications framework for higher education

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14418 Adding Business Value in Enterprise Applications through Quality Matrices Using Agile

Authors: Afshan Saad, Muhammad Saad, Shah Muhammad Emaduddin

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Nowadays the business condition is so quick paced that enhancing ourselves consistently has turned into a huge factor for the presence of an undertaking. We can check this for structural building and significantly more so in the quick-paced universe of data innovation and programming designing. The lithe philosophies, similar to Scrum, have a devoted advance in the process that objectives the enhancement of the improvement procedure and programming items. Pivotal to process enhancement is to pick up data that grants you to assess the condition of the procedure and its items. From the status data, you can design activities for the upgrade and furthermore assess the accomplishment of those activities. This investigation builds a model that measures the product nature of the improvement procedure. The product quality is dependent on the useful and auxiliary nature of the product items, besides the nature of the advancement procedure is likewise vital to enhance programming quality. Utilitarian quality covers the adherence to client prerequisites, while the auxiliary quality tends to the structure of the product item's source code with reference to its practicality. The procedure quality is identified with the consistency and expectedness of the improvement procedure. The product quality model is connected in a business setting by social occasion the information for the product measurements in the model. To assess the product quality model, we investigate the information and present it to the general population engaged with the light-footed programming improvement process. The outcomes from the application and the client input recommend that the model empowers a reasonable evaluation of the product quality and that it very well may be utilized to help the persistent enhancement of the advancement procedure and programming items.

Keywords: Agile SDLC Tools, Agile Software development, business value, enterprise applications, IBM, IBM Rational Team Concert, RTC, software quality, software metrics

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14417 The Role of Parental Stress and Emotion Regulation in Responding to Children’s Expression of Negative Emotion

Authors: Lizel Bertie, Kim Johnston

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Parental emotion regulation plays a central role in the socialisation of emotion, especially when teaching young children to cope with negative emotions. Despite evidence which shows non-supportive parental responses to children’s expression of negative emotions has implications for the social and emotional development of the child, few studies have investigated risk factors which impact parental emotion socialisation processes. The current study aimed to explore the extent to which parental stress contributes to both difficulties in parental emotion regulation and non-supportive parental responses to children’s expression of negative emotions. In addition, the study examined whether parental use of expressive suppression as an emotion regulation strategy facilitates the influence of parental stress on non-supportive responses by testing the relations in a mediation model. A sample of 140 Australian adults, who identified as parents with children aged 5 to 10 years, completed an online questionnaire. The measures explored recent symptoms of depression, anxiety, and stress, the use of expressive suppression as an emotion regulation strategy, and hypothetical parental responses to scenarios related to children’s expression of negative emotions. A mediated regression indicated that parents who reported higher levels of stress also reported higher levels of expressive suppression as an emotion regulation strategy and increased use of non-supportive responses in relation to young children’s expression of negative emotions. These findings suggest that parents who experience heightened symptoms of stress are more likely to both suppress their emotions in parent-child interaction and engage in non-supportive responses. Furthermore, higher use of expressive suppression strongly predicted the use of non-supportive responses, despite the presence of parental stress. Contrary to expectation, no indirect effect of stress on non-supportive responses was observed via expressive suppression. The findings from the study suggest that parental stress may become a more salient manifestation of psychological distress in a sub-clinical population of parents while contributing to impaired parental responses. As such, the study offers support for targeting overarching factors such as difficulties in parental emotion regulation and stress management, not only as an intervention for parental psychological distress, but also the detection and prevention of maladaptive parenting practices.

Keywords: emotion regulation, emotion socialisation, expressive suppression, non-supportive responses, parental stress

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14416 Modeling and Optimization of Performance of Four Stroke Spark Ignition Injector Engine

Authors: A. A. Okafor, C. H. Achebe, J. L. Chukwuneke, C. G. Ozoegwu

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The performance of an engine whose basic design parameters are known can be predicted with the assistance of simulation programs into the less time, cost and near value of actual. This paper presents a comprehensive mathematical model of the performance parameters of four stroke spark ignition engine. The essence of this research work is to develop a mathematical model for the analysis of engine performance parameters of four stroke spark ignition engine before embarking on full scale construction, this will ensure that only optimal parameters are in the design and development of an engine and also allow to check and develop the design of the engine and it’s operation alternatives in an inexpensive way and less time, instead of using experimental method which requires costly research test beds. To achieve this, equations were derived which describe the performance parameters (sfc, thermal efficiency, mep and A/F). The equations were used to simulate and optimize the engine performance of the model for various engine speeds. The optimal values obtained for the developed bivariate mathematical models are: sfc is 0.2833kg/kwh, efficiency is 28.77% and a/f is 20.75.

Keywords: bivariate models, engine performance, injector engine, optimization, performance parameters, simulation, spark ignition

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14415 Clustering-Based Threshold Model for Condition Rating of Concrete Bridge Decks

Authors: M. Alsharqawi, T. Zayed, S. Abu Dabous

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To ensure safety and serviceability of bridge infrastructure, accurate condition assessment and rating methods are needed to provide basis for bridge Maintenance, Repair and Replacement (MRR) decisions. In North America, the common practices to assess condition of bridges are through visual inspection. These practices are limited to detect surface defects and external flaws. Further, the thresholds that define the severity of bridge deterioration are selected arbitrarily. The current research discusses the main deteriorations and defects identified during visual inspection and Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE). NDE techniques are becoming popular in augmenting the visual examination during inspection to detect subsurface defects. Quality inspection data and accurate condition assessment and rating are the basis for determining appropriate MRR decisions. Thus, in this paper, a novel method for bridge condition assessment using the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) theory is utilized. The QFD model is designed to provide an integrated condition by evaluating both the surface and subsurface defects for concrete bridges. Moreover, an integrated condition rating index with four thresholds is developed based on the QFD condition assessment model and using K-means clustering technique. Twenty case studies are analyzed by applying the QFD model and implementing the developed rating index. The results from the analyzed case studies show that the proposed threshold model produces robust MRR recommendations consistent with decisions and recommendations made by bridge managers on these projects. The proposed method is expected to advance the state of the art of bridges condition assessment and rating.

Keywords: concrete bridge decks, condition assessment and rating, quality function deployment, k-means clustering technique

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14414 Syllogistic Reasoning with 108 Inference Rules While Case Quantities Change

Authors: Mikhail Zarechnev, Bora I. Kumova

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A syllogism is a deductive inference scheme used to derive a conclusion from a set of premises. In a categorical syllogisms, there are only two premises and every premise and conclusion is given in form of a quantified relationship between two objects. The different order of objects in premises give classification known as figures. We have shown that the ordered combinations of 3 generalized quantifiers with certain figure provide in total of 108 syllogistic moods which can be considered as different inference rules. The classical syllogistic system allows to model human thought and reasoning with syllogistic structures always attracted the attention of cognitive scientists. Since automated reasoning is considered as part of learning subsystem of AI agents, syllogistic system can be applied for this approach. Another application of syllogistic system is related to inference mechanisms on the Semantic Web applications. In this paper we proposed the mathematical model and algorithm for syllogistic reasoning. Also the model of iterative syllogistic reasoning in case of continuous flows of incoming data based on case–based reasoning and possible applications of proposed system were discussed.

Keywords: categorical syllogism, case-based reasoning, cognitive architecture, inference on the semantic web, syllogistic reasoning

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14413 The Origins of Inflation in Tunisia

Authors: Narimen Rdhaounia Mohamed Kouni

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Our aim in this paper is to identify the origins of inflation in Tunisia on the period from 1988 to 2018. In order to estimate the model, an ARDL methodology is used. We studied also the effect of informal economy on inflation. Indeed, we estimated the size of the informal economy in Tunisia based on Gutmann method. The results showed that there are three main origins of inflation. In fact, the first origin is the fiscal policy adopted by Tunisia, particularly after revolution. The second origin is the increase of monetary variables. Finally, informal economy played an important role in inflation.

Keywords: inflation, consumer price index, informal, gutmann method, ARDL model

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14412 The Dynamics of Planktonic Crustacean Populations in an Open Access Lagoon, Bordered by Heavy Industry, Southwest, Nigeria

Authors: E. O. Clarke, O. J. Aderinola, O. A. Adeboyejo, M. A. Anetekhai

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Aims: The study is aimed at establishing the influence of some physical and chemical parameters on the abundance, distribution pattern and seasonal variations of the planktonic crustacean populations. Place and Duration of Study: A premier investigation into the dynamics of planktonic crustacean populations in Ologe lagoon was carried out from January 2011 to December 2012. Study Design: The study covered identification, temporal abundance, spatial distribution and diversity of the planktonic crustacea. Methodology: Standard techniques were used to collect samples from eleven stations covering five proximal satellite towns (Idoluwo, Oto, Ibiye, Obele, and Gbanko) bordering the lagoon. Data obtained were statistically analyzed using linear regression and hierarchical clustering. Results:Thirteen (13) planktonic crustacean populations were identified. Total percentage abundance was highest for Bosmina species (20%) and lowest for Polyphemus species (0.8%). The Pearson’s correlation coefficient (“r” values) between total planktonic crustacean population and some physical and chemical parameters showed that positive correlations having low level of significance occurred with salinity (r = 0.042) (sig = 0.184) and with surface water dissolved oxygen (r = 0.299) (sig = 0.155). Linear regression plots indicated that, the total population of planktonic crustacea were mainly influenced and only increased with an increase in value of surface water temperature (Rsq = 0.791) and conductivity (Rsq = 0.589). The total population of planktonic crustacea had a near neutral (zero correlation) with the surface water dissolved oxygen and thus, does not significantly change with the level of the surface water dissolved oxygen. The correlations were positive with NO3-N (midstream) at Ibiye (Rsq =0.022) and (downstream) Gbanko (Rsq =0.013), PO4-P at Ibiye (Rsq =0.258), K at Idoluwo (Rsq =0.295) and SO4-S at Oto (Rsq = 0.094) and Gbanko (Rsq = 0.457). The Berger-Parker Dominance Index (BPDI) showed that the most dominant species was Bosmina species (BPDI = 1.000), followed by Calanus species (BPDI = 1.254). Clusters by squared Euclidan distances using average linkage between groups showed proximities, transcending the borders of genera. Conclusion: The results revealed that planktonic crustacean population in Ologe lagoon undergo seasonal perturbations, were highly influenced by nutrient, metal and organic matter inputs from river Owoh, Agbara industrial estate and surrounding farmlands and were patchy in spatial distribution.

Keywords: diversity, dominance, perturbations, richness, crustacea, lagoon

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14411 A Method to Identify the Critical Delay Factors for Building Maintenance Projects of Institutional Buildings: Case Study of Eastern India

Authors: Shankha Pratim Bhattacharya

Abstract:

In general building repair and renovation projects are minor in nature. It requires less attention as the primary cost involvement is relatively small. Although the building repair and maintenance projects look simple, it involves much complexity during execution. Many of the present research indicate that few uncertain situations are usually linked with maintenance projects. Those may not be read properly in the planning stage of the projects, and finally, lead to time overrun. Building repair and maintenance become essential and periodical after commissioning of the building. In Institutional buildings, the regular maintenance projects also include addition –alteration, modification activities. Increase in the student admission, new departments, and sections, new laboratories and workshops, up gradation of existing laboratories are very common in the institutional buildings in the developing nations like India. The project becomes very critical because it undergoes space problem, architectural design issues, structural modification, etc. One of the prime factors in the institutional building maintenance and modification project is the time constraint. Mostly it required being executed a specific non-work time period. The present research considered only the institutional buildings of the Eastern part of India to analyse the repair and maintenance project delay. A general survey was conducted among the technical institutes to find the causes and corresponding nature of construction delay factors. Five technical institutes are considered in the present study with repair, renovation, modification and extension type of projects. Construction delay factors are categorically subdivided into four groups namely, material, manpower (works), Contract and Site. The survey data are collected for the nature of delay responsible for a specific project and the absolute amount of delay through proposed and actual duration of work. In the first stage of the paper, a relative importance index (RII) is proposed for the delay factors. The occurrence of the delay factors is also judged by its frequency-severity nature. Finally, the delay factors are then rated and linked with the type of work. In the second stage, a regression analysis is executed to establish an empirical relationship between the actual time of a project and the percentage of delay. It also indicates the impact of the factors for delay responsibility. Ultimately, the present paper makes an effort to identify the critical delay factors for the repair and renovation type project in the Eastern Indian Institutional building.

Keywords: delay factor, institutional building, maintenance, relative importance index, regression analysis, repair

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14410 Integrative Biology Teaching and Learning Model Based on STEM Education

Authors: Narupot Putwattana

Abstract:

Changes in global situation such as environmental and economic crisis brought the new perspective for science education called integrative biology. STEM has been increasingly mentioned for several educational researches as the approach which combines the concept in Science (S), Technology (T), Engineering (E) and Mathematics (M) to apply in teaching and learning process so as to strengthen the 21st-century skills such as creativity and critical thinking. Recent studies demonstrated STEM as the pedagogy which described the engineering process along with the science classroom activities. So far, pedagogical contents for STEM explaining the content in biology have been scarce. A qualitative literature review was conducted so as to gather the articles based on electronic databases (google scholar). STEM education, engineering design, teaching and learning of biology were used as main keywords to find out researches involving with the application of STEM in biology teaching and learning process. All articles were analyzed to obtain appropriate teaching and learning model that unify the core concept of biology. The synthesized model comprised of engineering design, inquiry-based learning, biological prototype and biologically-inspired design (BID). STEM content and context integration were used as the theoretical framework to create the integrative biology instructional model for STEM education. Several disciplines contents such as biology, engineering, and technology were regarded for inquiry-based learning to build biological prototype. Direct and indirect integrations were used to provide the knowledge into the biology related STEM strategy. Meanwhile, engineering design and BID showed the occupational context for engineer and biologist. Technological and mathematical aspects were required to be inspected in terms of co-teaching method. Lastly, other variables such as critical thinking and problem-solving skills should be more considered in the further researches.

Keywords: biomimicry, engineering approach, STEM education, teaching and learning model

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14409 Numerical Simulation of Air Pollutant Using Coupled AERMOD-WRF Modeling System over Visakhapatnam: A Case Study

Authors: Amit Kumar

Abstract:

Accurate identification of deteriorated air quality regions is very helpful in devising better environmental practices and mitigation efforts. In the present study, an attempt has been made to identify the air pollutant dispersion patterns especially NOX due to vehicular and industrial sources over a rapidly developing urban city, Visakhapatnam (17°42’ N, 83°20’ E), India, during April 2009. Using the emission factors of different vehicles as well as the industry, a high resolution 1 km x 1 km gridded emission inventory has been developed for Visakhapatnam city. A dispersion model AERMOD with explicit representation of planetary boundary layer (PBL) dynamics and offline coupled through a developed coupler mechanism with a high resolution mesoscale model WRF-ARW resolution for simulating the dispersion patterns of NOX is used in the work. The meteorological as well as PBL parameters obtained by employing two PBL schemes viz., non-local Yonsei University (YSU) and local Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) of WRF-ARW model, which are reasonably representing the boundary layer parameters are considered for integrating AERMOD. Significantly different dispersion patterns of NOX have been noticed between summer and winter months. The simulated NOX concentration is validated with available six monitoring stations of Central Pollution Control Board, India. Statistical analysis of model evaluated concentrations with the observations reveals that WRF-ARW of YSU scheme with AERMOD has shown better performance. The deteriorated air quality locations are identified over Visakhapatnam based on the validated model simulations of NOX concentrations. The present study advocates the utility of tNumerical Simulation of Air Pollutant Using Coupled AERMOD-WRF Modeling System over Visakhapatnam: A Case Studyhe developed gridded emission inventory of NOX with coupled WRF-AERMOD modeling system for air quality assessment over the study region.

Keywords: WRF-ARW, AERMOD, planetary boundary layer, air quality

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14408 Simulation of Photocatalytic Degradation of Rhodamine B in Annular Photocatalytic Reactor

Authors: Jatinder Kumar, Ajay Bansal

Abstract:

Simulation of a photocatalytic reactor helps in understanding the complex behavior of the photocatalytic degradation. Simulation also aids the designing and optimization of the photocatalytic reactor. Lack of simulation strategies is a huge hindrance in the commercialization of the photocatalytic technology. With the increased performance of computational resources, and development of simulation software, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is becoming an affordable engineering tool to simulate and optimize reactor designs. In the present paper, a CFD (Computational fluid dynamics) model for simulating the performance of an immobilized-titanium dioxide based annular photocatalytic reactor was developed. The computational model integrates hydrodynamics, species mass transport, and chemical reaction kinetics using a commercial CFD code Fluent 6.3.26. The CFD model was based on the intrinsic kinetic parameters determined experimentally in a perfectly mixed batch reactor. Rhodamine B, a complex organic compound, was selected as a test pollutant for photocatalytic degradation. It was observed that CFD could become a valuable tool to understand and improve the photocatalytic systems.

Keywords: simulation, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), annular photocatalytic reactor, titanium dioxide

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14407 The Effect of Soil Surface Slope on Splash Distribution under Water Drop Impact

Authors: H. Aissa, L. Mouzai, M. Bouhadef

Abstract:

The effects of down slope steepness on soil splash distribution under a water drop impact have been investigated in this study. The equipment used are the burette to simulate a water drop, a splash cup filled with sandy soil which forms the source area and a splash board to collect the ejected particles. The results found in this study have shown that the apparent mass increased with increasing downslope angle following a linear regression equation with high coefficient of determination. In the same way, the radial soil splash distribution over the distance has been analyzed statistically, and an exponential function was the best fit of the relationship for the different slope angles. The curves and the regressions equations validate the well known FSDF and extend the theory of Van Dijk.

Keywords: splash distribution, water drop, slope steepness, soil detachment

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14406 Economic Valuation of Forest Landscape Function Using a Conditional Logit Model

Authors: A. J. Julius, E. Imoagene, O. A. Ganiyu

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of the services and functions rendered by the forest landscape using a conditional logit model. For this study, attributes and levels of forest landscape were chosen; specifically, attributes include topographical forest type, forest type, forest density, recreational factor (side trip, accessibility of valley), and willingness to participate (WTP). Based on these factors, 48 choices sets with balanced and orthogonal form using statistical analysis system (SAS) 9.1 was adopted. The efficiency of the questionnaire was 6.02 (D-Error. 0.1), and choice set and socio-economic variables were analyzed. To reduce the cognitive load of respondents, the 48 choice sets were divided into 4 types in the questionnaire, so that respondents could respond to 12 choice sets, respectively. The study populations were citizens from seven metropolitan cities including Ibadan, Ilorin, Osogbo, etc. and annual WTP per household was asked by using the interview questionnaire, a total of 267 copies were recovered. As a result, Oshogbo had 0.45, and the statistical similarities could not be found except for urban forests, forest density, recreational factor, and level of WTP. Average annual WTP per household for forest landscape was 104,758 Naira (Nigerian currency) based on the outcome from this model, total economic value of the services and functions enjoyed from Nigerian forest landscape has reached approximately 1.6 trillion Naira.

Keywords: economic valuation, urban cities, services, forest landscape, logit model, nigeria

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14405 Psycho-Social Predictors of Health-Related Quality of Life among Persons Living with Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia in Ibadan, Nigeria

Authors: A. C. Obosi, H. O. Osinowo, L. I. Okeke

Abstract:

Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is one among other prostate diseases with an increasing public health concern. The prevalence and increased psychological distress of BPH among men negatively impact on their health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Although several biomedical factors have been implicated in poor HRQoL among people with BPH, there is a dearth of research on the psychosocial factors predicting HRQoL among them especially in developing climes. This study, therefore, examined the psychosocial (knowledge, perceived stigma, depression, anxiety, perceived social support and illness acceptance) predictors of health-related quality of life among persons living with BPH in Ibadan, Nigeria. Biopsychosocial model and Health-related Quality of life guided this study which utilized ex-post facto design. Eighty-seven males living with BPH were purposively selected and actively participated in the study. Participants’ mean age was 61.77 ± 15.80 years. A standardized questionnaire comprising Socio-demographics and measures of health-related quality of life (α = 0.47); knowledge (α = 0.72); psychological distress (α = 0.95); perceived social support (α = 0.96) and Illness acceptance (α = 0.89) scales was utilized in the study. Data were content analysed, while bivariate correlation, hierarchical multiple regression and t-test for independent samples were computed at p < 0.05. Results revealed that 42.5% of the respondents reported poor HRQoL. Furthermore, age, length of illness, perceived stigma, depression, anxiety, knowledge, perceived social support and illness acceptance jointly predicted HRQoL significantly (R2=0.33, F(9,75)=4.05) and accounted for 33% variance in the total observed variance on HRQoL, while Illness acceptance (β=0.43), anxiety (β=-0.54), and perceived social support (β=0.16) had significant independent contributions to the observed variance on HRQoL. Illness acceptance, knowledge, perceived social support and psychological distress such as anxiety, depression and perceived stigma are important predictors of HRQoL. Therefore, it was recommended that urgent psychological intervention targeted at improving the quality of life of these persons be undertaken.

Keywords: benign prostatic hyperplasia, Health-related quality of life, prostate disorders, psychosocial factors

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