Search results for: climatic niche modeling

Authors: Hengki Eko Putra, Dennish Ari Putro, Tri Wahyu Hadi, Edi Riawan, Junnaedhi Dewa Gede, Aditia Rojali, Fariza Dian Prasetyo, Yudhistira Satya Pribadi, Dita Fatria Andarini, Mila Khaerunisa, Raditya Hanung Prakoswa

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Catastrophe risk management can only be done if we are able to calculate the exposed risks. Jakarta is an important city economically, socially, and politically and in the same time exposed to severe floods. On the other hand, flood risk calculation is still very limited in the area. This study has calculated the risk of flooding for Jakarta using 2-Dimensional Model ANUGA. 2-Dimensional model ANUGA and 1-Dimensional Model HEC-RAS are used to calculate the risk of flooding from 13 major rivers in Jakarta. ANUGA can simulate physical and dynamical processes between the streamflow against river geometry and land cover to produce a 1-meter resolution inundation map. The value of streamflow as an input for the model obtained from hydrological analysis on rainfall data using hydrologic model HEC-HMS. The probabilistic streamflow derived from probabilistic rainfall using statistical distribution Log-Pearson III, Normal and Gumbel, through compatibility test using Chi Square and Smirnov-Kolmogorov. Flood event on 2007 is used as a comparison to evaluate the accuracy of model output. Property damage estimations were calculated based on flood depth for 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return period against housing value data from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Centre for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements, Ministry of Public Work Indonesia. The vulnerability factor was derived from flood insurance claim. Jakarta's flood loss estimation for the return period of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years, respectively are Rp 1.30 t; Rp 16.18 t; Rp 16.85 t; Rp 21.21 t; Rp 24.32 t; and Rp 24.67 t of the total value of building Rp 434.43 t.

Keywords: 2D hydrodynamic model, ANUGA, flood, flood modeling

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

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Authors: K. S. Zaytsev, Y. R. Nartsissov

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Glycine is one of the key inhibitory neurotransmitters in Central nervous system (CNS) meanwhile glycinergic transmission is highly dependable on its appropriate reuptake from synaptic cleft. Glycine transporters (GlyT) of types 1 and 2 are the enzymes providing glycine transport back to neuronal and glial cells along with Na⁺ and Cl⁻ co-transport. The distribution and stoichiometry of GlyT1 and GlyT2 differ in details, and GlyT2 is more interesting for the research as it reuptakes glycine to neuron cells, whereas GlyT1 is located in glial cells. In the process of GlyT2 activity, the translocation of the amino acid is accompanied with binding of both one chloride and three sodium ions consequently (two sodium ions for GlyT1). In the present study, we developed a computer simulator of GlyT2 and GlyT1 activity based on known experimental data for quantitative estimation of membrane glycine transport. The trait of a single protein functioning was described using the probability approach where each enzyme state was considered separately. Created scheme of transporter functioning realized as a consequence of elemental steps allowed to take into account each event of substrate association and dissociation. Computer experiments using up-to-date kinetic parameters allowed receiving the number of translocated glycine molecules, Na⁺ and Cl⁻ ions per time period. Flexibility of developed software makes it possible to evaluate glycine reuptake pattern in time under different internal characteristics of enzyme conformational transitions. We investigated the behavior of the system in a wide range of equilibrium constant (from 0.2 to 100), which is not determined experimentally. The significant influence of equilibrium constant in the range from 0.2 to 10 on the glycine transfer process is shown. The environmental conditions such as ion and glycine concentrations are decisive if the values of the constant are outside the specified range.

Keywords: glycine, inhibitory neurotransmitters, probability approach, single protein functioning

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Authors: Angshuman Raha, Abesh Kumar Sanyal, Uttaran Bandyopadhyay, Kaushik Mallick, Kamalika Bhattacharyya, Subrata Gayen, Gaurab Nandi Das, Mohd. Ali, Kailash Chandra

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Indian Himalayan Region (IHR), due to its sheer latitudinal and altitudinal expanse, acts as a mixing ground for different zoogeographic faunal elements. The innumerable unique and distributional restricted rare species of IHR are constantly being threatened with extinction by the ongoing climate change scenario. Many of which might have faced extinction without even being noticed or discovered. Monitoring the community dynamics of a suitable taxon is indispensable to assess the effect of this global perturbation at micro-habitat level. Lepidoptera, particularly moths are suitable for this purpose due to their huge diversity and strict herbivorous nature. The present study aimed to collate scattered historical records of moths from IHR and spatially disseminate the same in Geographic Information System (GIS) domain. The study also intended to identify moth species with significant altitudinal shifts which could be prioritised for monitoring programme to assess the effect of climate change on biodiversity. A robust database on moths recorded from IHR was prepared from voluminous secondary literature and museum collections. Historical sampling points were transformed into richness grids which were spatially overlaid on altitude, annual precipitation and vegetation layers separately to show moth richness patterns along major environmental gradients. Primary samplings were done by setting standard light traps at 11 Protected Areas representing five Indian Himalayan biogeographic provinces. To identify significant altitudinal shifts, past and present altitudinal records of the identified species from primary samplings were compared. A consolidated list of 4107 species belonging to 1726 genera of 62 families of moths was prepared from a total of 10,685 historical records from IHR. Family-wise assemblage revealed Erebidae to be the most speciose family with 913 species under 348 genera, followed by Geometridae with 879 species under 309 genera and Noctuidae with 525 species under 207 genera. Among biogeographic provinces, Central Himalaya represented maximum records with 2248 species, followed by Western and North-western Himalaya with 1799 and 877 species, respectively. Spatial analysis revealed species richness was more or less uniform (up to 150 species record per cell) across IHR. Throughout IHR, the middle elevation zones between 1000-2000m encompassed high species richness. Temperate coniferous forest associated with 1500-2000mm rainfall zone showed maximum species richness. Total 752 species of moths were identified representing 23 families from the present sampling. 13 genera were identified which were restricted to specialized habitats of alpine meadows over 3500m. Five historical localities with high richness of >150 species were selected which could be considered for repeat sampling to assess climate change influence on moth assemblage. Of the 7 species exhibiting significant altitudinal ascend of >2000m, Trachea auriplena, Diphtherocome fasciata (Noctuidae) and Actias winbrechlini (Saturniidae) showed maximum range shift of >2500m, indicating intensive monitoring of these species. Great Himalayan National Park harbours most diverse assemblage of high-altitude restricted species and should be a priority site for habitat conservation. Among the 13 range restricted genera, Arichanna, Opisthograptis, Photoscotosia (Geometridae), Phlogophora, Anaplectoides and Paraxestia (Noctuidae) were dominant and require rigorous monitoring, as they are most susceptible to climatic perturbations.

Keywords: altitudinal shifts, climate change, historical records, Indian Himalayan region, Lepidoptera

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Authors: Darren Edwards, Thomas Pinna

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Background: Interoception and heart rate variability have been found to predict outcomes of mental health and well-being. However, these have usually been investigated independently of one another. Objectives: This review aimed to explore the associations between interoception and heart rate variability (HRV) with emotion regulation (ER) and ER strategies within the existing literature and utilizing systematic review methodology. Methods: The process of article retrieval and selection followed the preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Databases PsychINFO, Web of Science, PubMed, CINAHL, and MEDLINE were scanned for papers published. Preliminary inclusion and exclusion criteria were specified following the patient, intervention, comparison, and outcome (PICO) framework, whilst the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modeling studies (CHARMS) framework was used to help formulate the research question, and to critically assess for bias in the identified full-length articles. Results: 237 studies were identified after initial database searches. Of these, eight studies were included in the final selection. Six studies explored the associations between HRV and ER, whilst three investigated the associations between interoception and ER (one of which was included in the HRV selection too). Overall, the results seem to show that greater HRV and interoception are associated with better ER. Specifically, high parasympathetic activity largely predicted the use of adaptive ER strategies such as reappraisal, and better acceptance of emotions. High interoception, instead, was predictive of effective down-regulation of negative emotions and handling of social uncertainty, there was no association with any specific ER strategy. Conclusions: Awareness of one’s own bodily feelings and vagal activation seem to be of central importance for the effective regulation of emotional responses.

Keywords: emotional regulation, vagal tone, interoception, chronic conditions, health and well-being, psychological flexibility

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Authors: Abdulmohsen Alruwaili

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A partial differential system featuring momentum and energy balance is often used to describe simulations of flow initiation and thermal shifting in boundary layers. The buoyancy force in terms of temperature is factored in the momentum balance equation. Buoyancy force causes the flow quantity to fluctuate along the streamwise direction 𝑋; therefore, the problem can be, to our best knowledge, analyzed through nonsimilar modeling. In this analysis, a nonsimilar model is evolved for radiative mixed convection of a magnetized power-law nanoliquid flow on top of a vertical plate installed in a stationary fluid. The upward linear stretching initiated the flow in the vertical direction. Assuming nanofluids are composite of copper (Cu) and alumina (Al₂O₃) nanoparticles, the viscous dissipation in this case is negligible. The nonsimilar system is dealt with analytically by local nonsimilarity (LNS) via numerical algorithm bvp4c. Surface temperature and flow field are shown visually in relation to factors like mixed convection, magnetic field strength, nanoparticle volume fraction, radiation parameters, and Prandtl number. The repercussions of magnetic and mixed convection parameters on the rate of energy transfer and friction coefficient are represented in tabular forms. The results obtained are compared to the published literature. It is found that the existence of nanoparticles significantly improves the temperature profile of considered nanoliquid. It is also observed that when the estimates of the magnetic parameter increase, the velocity profile decreases. Enhancement in nanoparticle concentration and mixed convection parameter improves the velocity profile.

Keywords: nanofluid, power law model, mixed convection, thermal radiation

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Authors: Gozel Judakova, Markus Bause

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We present and analyze reliable numerical techniques for simulating complex flow and transport phenomena related to natural gas transportation in pipelines. Such kind of problems are of high interest in the field of petroleum and environmental engineering. Modeling and understanding natural gas flow and transformation processes during transportation is important for the sake of physical realism and the design and operation of pipeline systems. In our approach a two fluid flow model based on a system of coupled hyperbolic conservation laws is considered for describing natural gas flow undergoing hydratization. The accurate numerical approximation of two-phase gas flow remains subject of strong interest in the scientific community. Such hyperbolic problems are characterized by solutions with steep gradients or discontinuities, and their approximation by standard finite element techniques typically gives rise to spurious oscillations and numerical artefacts. Recently, stabilized and discontinuous Galerkin finite element techniques have attracted researchers’ interest. They are highly adapted to the hyperbolic nature of our two-phase flow model. In the presentation a streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin approach and a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for the numerical approximation of our flow model of two coupled systems of Euler equations are presented. Then the efficiency and reliability of stabilized continuous and discontinous finite element methods for the approximation is carefully analyzed and the potential of the either classes of numerical schemes is investigated. In particular, standard benchmark problems of two-phase flow like the shock tube problem are used for the comparative numerical study.

Keywords: discontinuous Galerkin method, Euler system, inviscid two-fluid model, streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin method, twophase flow

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Authors: Min Wang, Sergey Utev

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The lessons from the 2007-09 global financial crisis have driven scientific research, which considers the design of new methodologies and financial models in the global market. The quantum mechanics approach was introduced in the unpredictable stock market modeling. One famous quantum tool is Feynman path integral method, which was used to model insurance risk by Tamturk and Utev and adapted to formalize the path-dependent option pricing by Hao and Utev. The research is based on the path-dependent calculation method, which is motivated by the Feynman path integral method. The path calculation can be studied in two ways, one way is to label, and the other is computational. Labeling is a part of the representation of objects, and generating functions can provide many different ways of representing share price paths. In this paper, the recent works on graphical theoretical construction of individual share price path via matroid is presented. Firstly, a study is done on the knowledge of matroid, relationship between lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials and ways to connect points in the lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials is suggested. Secondly, It is found that a general binary tree can be validly constructed from a connected lattice path matroid rather than general lattice path matroid. Lastly, it is suggested that there is a way to represent share price paths via a general binary tree, and an algorithm is developed to construct share price paths from general binary trees. A relationship is also provided between lattice integer points and Tutte polynomials of a transversal matroid. Use this way of connection together with the algorithm, a share price path can be constructed from a given connected lattice path matroid.

Keywords: combinatorial construction, graphical representation, matroid, path calculation, share price, Tutte polynomial

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Authors: Amna J. Ghith, Khaled Abu Zid, Khairia Youssef, Nasser Saad

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Backgrounds: The multikinase and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor inhibitors interrupt the pathway by which angiogenesis becomes established and promulgated, resulting in the inadequate nourishment of metastatic disease. VEGFR-2 has been the principal target of anti-angiogenic therapies. We disclose the new thieno pyrimidines as inhibitors of VEGFR-2 designed by a molecular modeling approach with increased synergistic activity and decreased side effects. Purpose: 2-substituted thieno pyrimidines are designed and synthesized with anticipated anticancer activity based on its in silico molecular docking study that supports the initial pharmacophoric hypothesis with a same binding mode of interaction at the ATP-binding site of VEGFR-2 (PDB 2QU5) with high docking score. Methods: A series of compounds were designed using discovery studio 4.1/CDOCKER with a rational that mimic the pharmacophoric features present in the reported active compounds that targeted VEGFR-2. An in silico ADMET study was also performed to validate the bioavailability of the newly designed compounds. Results: The Compounds to be synthesized showed interaction energy comparable to or within the range of the benzimidazole inhibitor ligand when docked with VEGFR-2. ADMET study showed comparable results most of the compounds showed absorption within (95-99) zone varying according to different substitutions attached to thieno pyrimidine ring system. Conclusions: A series of 2-subsituted thienopyrimidines are to be synthesized with anticipated anticancer activity and according to docking study structure requirement for the design of VEGFR-2 inhibitors which can act as powerful anticancer agents.

Keywords: docking, discovery studio 4.1/CDOCKER, heterocycles based anticancer agents, 2-subsituted thienopyrimidines

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Authors: Pawthawala Nancy Manish, Syed Alay Hashim

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A hybrid rocket is a rocket engine which uses propellants in two different states of matter- one is in solid and the other either gas or liquid. A hybrid rocket exhibit advantages over both liquid rockets and solid rockets especially in terms of simplicity, stop-start-restart capabilities, safety and cost. This paper deals the design and development of a hybrid rocket having paraffin wax as solid fuel and liquid oxygen as oxidizer. Due to variation of pressure in combustion chamber there is significantly change in mass flow rate, burning rate and uneven regression along the length of the grain. This project describes the working model of a hybrid propellant rocket motor. We have designed a hybrid rocket thrust chamber based on the predetermined combustion chamber pressure and the properties of hybrid propellant. This project is all ready in working condition with normal oxygen injector. Now we have planned to modify the injector design to improve the combustion property. We will use spray type injector for injecting the oxidizer. This idea will increase the performance followed by the regression rate of the solid fuel. By employing mass conservation law, oxygen mass flux, oxidizer/fuel ratio and regression rate the thrust coefficient can be obtained for our current design. CATIA V5 R20 is our design software for the complete setup. This project is fully based on experimental evaluation and the collection of combustion and flow parameters. The thrust chamber is made of stainless steel and the duration of test is around 15-20 seconds (Maximum). These experiments indicates that paraffin based fuel provides the opportunity to satisfy a broad range of mission requirements for the next generation of the hybrid rocket system.

Keywords: burning rate, liquid oxygen, mass flow rate, paraffin wax and sugar

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Authors: Frederic Schenker, Jonathan J. Hendriks, Gianluca Nicchiotti

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In a product industrialization perspective, the end-product shall always be at the peak of technological advancement and developed in the shortest time possible. Thus, the constant growth of complexity and a shorter time-to-market calls for important changes on both the technical and business level. Undeniably, the common understanding of the system is beclouded by its complexity which leads to the communication gap between the engineers and the sale department. This communication link is therefore important to maintain and increase the information exchange between departments to ensure a punctual and flawless delivery to the end customer. This evolution brings engineers to reason with more hindsight and plan ahead. In this sense, they use new viewpoints to represent the data and to express the model deliverables in an understandable way that the different stakeholder may identify their needs and ideas. This article focuses on the usage of Model-Based System Engineering (MBSE) in a perspective of system industrialization and reconnect the engineering with the sales team. The modeling method used and presented in this paper concentrates on displaying as closely as possible the needs of the customer. Firstly, by providing a technical solution to the sales team to help them elaborate commercial offers without omitting technicalities. Secondly, the model simulates between a vast number of possibilities across a wide range of components. It becomes a dynamic tool for powerful analysis and optimizations. Thus, the model is no longer a technical tool for the engineers, but a way to maintain and solidify the communication between departments using different views of the model. The MBSE contribution to cost optimization during New Product Introduction (NPI) activities is made explicit through the illustration of a case study describing the support provided by system models to architectural choices during the industrialization of a novel optical sensor.

Keywords: analytical model, architecture comparison, MBSE, product industrialization, SysML, system thinking

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Authors: Narges Razmjoo, Hamid Sefidari, Michael Strand

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Biomass combustion is a growing technique for heat and power production due to the increasing stringent regulations with CO2 emissions. Grate-fired systems have been regarded as a common and popular combustion technology for burning woody biomass. However, some grate furnaces are not well optimized and may emit significant amount of unwanted compounds such as dust, NOx, CO, and unburned gaseous components. The combustion characteristics inside the fuel bed are of practical interest, as they are directly related to the release of volatiles and affect the stability and the efficiency of the fuel bed combustion. Although numerous studies have been presented on the grate firing of biomass, to the author’s knowledge, none of them have conducted a detailed experimental study within the fuel bed. It is difficult to conduct measurements of temperature and gas species inside the burning bed of the fuel in full-scale boilers. Results from such inside bed measurements can also be applied by the numerical experts for modeling the fuel bed combustion. The current work presents an experimental investigation into the combustion behavior of wet woody biomass (53 %) in a 4 MW reciprocating grate boiler, by focusing on the gas species distribution along the height of the fuel bed. The local concentrations of gases (CO, CO2, CH4, NO, and O2) inside the fuel bed were measured through a glass port situated on the side wall of the furnace. The measurements were carried out at five different heights of the fuel bed, by means of a bent stainless steel probe containing a type-k thermocouple. The sample gas extracted from the fuel bed, through the probe, was filtered and dried and then was analyzed using two infrared spectrometers. Temperatures of about 200-1100 °C were measured close to the grate, indicating that char combustion is occurring at the bottom of the fuel bed and propagates upward. The CO and CO2 concentration varied in the range of 15-35 vol % and 3-16 vol %, respectively, and NO concentration varied between 10-140 ppm. The profile of the gas concentrations distribution along the bed height provided a good overview of the combustion sub-processes in the fuel bed.

Keywords: experimental, fuel bed, grate firing, wood combustion

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Authors: Ali Javaid, Rizwan Latif, Syed Adnan Qasim, Imran Shafi

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To control combustion inside a direct injection diesel engine, fuel atomization is the best tool. Controlling combustion helps in reducing emissions and improves efficiency. Cavitation is one of the most important factors that significantly affect the nature of spray before it injects into combustion chamber. Typical fuel injector nozzles are small and operate at a very high pressure, which limits the study of internal nozzle behavior especially in case of diesel engine. Simulating cavitation in a fuel injector will help in understanding the phenomenon and will assist in further development. There is a parametric variation between high speed and high torque low speed diesel engines. The objective of this study is to simulate internal spray characteristics for a low speed high torque diesel engine. In-nozzle cavitation has strong effects on the parameters e.g. mass flow rate, fuel velocity, and momentum flux of fuel that is to be injected into the combustion chamber. The external spray dynamics and subsequently the air – fuel mixing depends on a lot of the parameters of fuel injecting the nozzle. The approach used to model turbulence induced in – nozzle cavitation for high-torque low-speed diesel engine, is homogeneous equilibrium model. The governing equations were modeled using Matlab. Complete Model in question was extensively evaluated by performing 3-D time-dependent simulations on Open FOAM, which is an open source flow solver and implemented in CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics). Results thus obtained will be analyzed for better evaporation in the near-nozzle region. The proposed analyses will further help in better engine efficiency, low emission, and improved fuel economy.

Keywords: cavitation, HEM model, nozzle flow, open foam, turbulence

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Authors: Redvan Ghasemlounia, Elham Ansari, Hikmet Kerem Cigizoglu

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Hydrological modeling in arid and semi-arid regions is very important. Iran has many regions with these climate conditions such as Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province that needs lots of attention with an appropriate management. Forecasting of hydrological parameters and estimation of hydrological events of catchments, provide important information that used for design, management and operation of water resources such as river systems, and dams, widely. Discharge in rivers is one of these parameters. This study presents the application and comparison of some estimation methods such as Feed-Forward Back Propagation Neural Network (FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) to predict the daily flow discharge of the Soolegan River, located at Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, in Iran. In this study, Soolegan, station was considered. This Station is located in Soolegan River at 51° 14՜ Latitude 31° 38՜ longitude at North Karoon basin. The Soolegan station is 2086 meters higher than sea level. The data used in this study are daily discharge and daily precipitation of Soolegan station. Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Network(FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) models were developed using the same input parameters for Soolegan's daily discharge estimation. The results of estimation models were compared with observed discharge values to evaluate performance of the developed models. Results of all methods were compared and shown in tables and charts.

Keywords: ANN, multi linear regression, Bayesian network, forecasting, discharge, gene expression programming

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Authors: Hang Yang, Jichao Li, Kewei Yang, Tianyang Lei

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Multivariate time series anomaly detection is a significant research topic in the field of data mining, encompassing a wide range of applications across various industrial sectors such as traffic roads, financial logistics, and corporate production. The inherent spatial dependencies and temporal characteristics present in multivariate time series introduce challenges to the anomaly detection task. Previous studies have typically been based on the assumption that all variables belong to the same spatial hierarchy, neglecting the multi-level spatial relationships. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a multi-scale spatial and unified temporal feature fusion network, denoted as MSUT-Net, for multivariate time series anomaly detection. The proposed model employs a multi-level modeling approach, incorporating both temporal and spatial modules. The spatial module is designed to capture the spatial characteristics of multivariate time series data, utilizing an adaptive graph structure learning model to identify the multi-level spatial relationships between data variables and their attributes. The temporal module consists of a unified temporal processing module, which is tasked with capturing the temporal features of multivariate time series. This module is capable of simultaneously identifying temporal dependencies among different variables. Extensive testing on multiple publicly available datasets confirms that MSUT-Net achieves superior performance on the majority of datasets. Our method is able to model and accurately detect systems data with multi-level spatial relationships from a spatial-temporal perspective, providing a novel perspective for anomaly detection analysis.

Keywords: data mining, industrial system, multivariate time series, anomaly detection

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Authors: Kyle Burke Pfeiffer, Carmella Burdi, Karen Marsh

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The evacuation and shelter-in-place planning process employed by most jurisdictions within the United States is not informed by a scientifically-derived framework that is inclusive of the behavioral and policy-related indicators of public compliance with evacuation orders. While a significant body of work exists to define these indicators, the research findings have not been well-integrated nor translated into useable planning factors for public safety officials. Additionally, refinement of the planning factors alone is insufficient to support science-based evacuation planning as the behavioral elements of evacuees—even with consideration of policy-related indicators—must be examined in the context of specific regional transportation and shelter networks. To address this problem, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and Argonne National Laboratory developed an agent-based model to support regional analysis of zone-based evacuation in southeastern Georgia. In particular, this model allows public safety officials to analyze the consequences that a range of hazards may have upon a community, assess evacuation and shelter-in-place decisions in the context of specified evacuation and response plans, and predict outcomes based on community compliance with orders and the capacity of the regional (to include extra-jurisdictional) transportation and shelter networks. The intention is to use this model to aid evacuation planning and decision-making. Applications for the model include developing a science-driven risk communication strategy and, ultimately, in the case of evacuation, the shortest possible travel distance and clearance times for evacuees within the regional boundary conditions.

Keywords: agent-based modeling for evacuation, decision-support for evacuation planning, evacuation planning, human behavior in evacuation

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Authors: Nessreen Y. Ibrahim

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Designing the future according to realistic analytical study for the futuristic market needs can be a milestone strategy to make a huge improvement in developing countries economics. In developing countries, access to high technology and latest science approaches is very limited. The financial problems in low and medium income countries have negative effects on the kind and quality of imported new technologies and application for their markets. Thus, there is a strong need for shifting paradigm thinking in the design process to improve and evolve their development strategy. This paper discusses future possibilities in developing countries, and how they can design their own future according to specific future models FDM (Future Design Models), which established to solve certain economical problems, as well as political and cultural conflicts. FDM is strategic thinking framework provides an improvement in both content and process. The content includes; beliefs, values, mission, purpose, conceptual frameworks, research, and practice, while the process includes; design methodology, design systems, and design managements tools. In this paper the main objective was building an innovative economic model to design a chosen possible futuristic scenario; by understanding the market future needs, analyze real world setting, solve the model questions by future driven design, and finally interpret the results, to discuss to what extent the results can be transferred to the real world. The paper discusses Egypt as a potential case study. Since, Egypt has highly complex economical problems, extra-dynamic political factors, and very rich cultural aspects; we considered Egypt is a very challenging example for applying FDM. The paper results recommended using FDM numerical modeling as a starting point to design the future.

Keywords: developing countries, economic models, future design, possible futures

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Authors: Nigina Toktasynova, Sholpan Sagyndykova, Zhanat Kenzhebayeva, Maksat Kalimoldayev, Mariya Ishimova, Irbulat Utepbergenov

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Any business needs a stable operation and continuous improvement, therefore it is necessary to constantly interact with the environment, to analyze the work of the enterprise in terms of employees, executives and consumers, as well as to correct any inconsistencies of certain types of processes and their aggregate. In the case of heat supply organizations, in addition to suppliers, local legislation must be considered which often is the main regulator of pricing of services. In this case, the process approach used to build a functional organizational structure in these types of businesses in Kazakhstan is a challenge not only in the implementation, but also in ways of analyzing the employee's salary. To solve these problems, we investigated the management system of heating enterprise, including strategic planning based on the balanced scorecard (BSC), quality management in accordance with the standards of the Quality Management System (QMS) ISO 9001 and analysis of the system based on expert judgment using fuzzy inference. To carry out our work we used the theory of fuzzy sets, the QMS in accordance with ISO 9001, BSC according to the method of Kaplan and Norton, method of construction of business processes according to the notation IDEF0, theory of modeling using Matlab software simulation tools and graphical programming LabVIEW. The results of the work are as follows: We determined possibilities of improving the management of heat-supply plant-based on QMS; after the justification and adaptation of software tool it has been used to automate a series of functions for the management and reduction of resources and for the maintenance of the system up to date; an application for the analysis of the QMS based on fuzzy inference has been created with novel organization of communication software with the application enabling the analysis of relevant data of enterprise management system.

Keywords: balanced scorecard, heat supply, quality management system, the theory of fuzzy sets

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Authors: N. V. Kazmiruk, Y. R. Nartsissov

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Phosphate activated glutaminase (GA, E.C. 3.5.1.2) plays a key role in glutamine/glutamate homeostasis in mammalian brain, catalyzing the hydrolytic deamidation of glutamine to glutamate and ammonium ions. GA is mainly localized in mitochondria, where it has the catalytically active form on the inner mitochondrial membrane (IMM) and the other soluble form, which is supposed to be dormant. At present time, the exact localization of the membrane glutaminase active site remains a controversial and an unresolved issue. The first hypothesis called c-side localization suggests that the catalytic site of GA faces the inter-membrane space and products of the deamidation reaction have immediate access to cytosolic metabolism. According to the alternative m-side localization hypothesis, GA orients to the matrix, making glutamate and ammonium available for the tricarboxylic acid cycle metabolism in mitochondria directly. In our study, we used a multi-compartment kinetic approach to simulate metabolism of glutamate and glutamine in the astrocytic cytosol and mitochondria. We used physiologically important ratio between the concentrations of glutamine inside the matrix of mitochondria [Glnₘᵢₜ] and glutamine in the cytosol [Glncyt] as a marker for precise functioning of the system. Since this ratio directly depends on the mitochondrial glutamine carrier (MGC) flow parameters, key observation was to investigate the dependence of the [Glnmit]/[Glncyt] ratio on the maximal velocity of MGC at different initial concentrations of mitochondrial glutamate. Another important task was to observe the similar dependence at different inhibition constants of the soluble GA. The simulation results confirmed the experimental c-side localization hypothesis, in which the glutaminase active site faces the outer surface of the IMM. Moreover, in the case of such localization of the enzyme, a 3-fold decrease in ammonium production was predicted.

Keywords: glutamate metabolism, glutaminase, kinetic approach, mitochondrial membrane, multi-compartment modeling

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Authors: Dong Wu, Michael Grenn

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Managing software projects effectively is crucial for meeting deadlines, ensuring quality, and managing resources well. Traditional methods often struggle with predicting project timelines accurately due to uncertain schedules and complex data. This study addresses these challenges by combining time prediction algorithms with Large Language Models (LLMs). It makes use of real-world software project data to construct and validate a model. The model takes detailed project progress data such as task completion dynamic, team Interaction and development metrics as its input and outputs predictions of project timelines. To evaluate the effectiveness of this model, a comprehensive methodology is employed, involving simulations and practical applications in a variety of real-world software project scenarios. This multifaceted evaluation strategy is designed to validate the model's significant role in enhancing forecast accuracy and elevating overall management efficiency, particularly in complex software project environments. The results indicate that the integration of time prediction algorithms with LLMs has the potential to optimize software project progress management. These quantitative results suggest the effectiveness of the method in practical applications. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that integrating time prediction algorithms with LLMs can significantly improve the predictive accuracy and efficiency of software project management. This offers an advanced project management tool for the industry, with the potential to improve operational efficiency, optimize resource allocation, and ensure timely project completion.

Keywords: software project management, time prediction algorithms, large language models (LLMS), forecast accuracy, project progress prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Mahzabin Afroz, Indubhushan Patnaikuni, Srikanth Venkatesan

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It is well-known that fly ash can be used in high volume as a partial replacement of cement to get beneficial effects on concrete. High volume fly ash (HVFA) concrete is currently emerging as a popular option to strengthen by fiber. Although studies have supported the use of fibers with fly ash, a unified model along with the incorporation into finite element software package to estimate the maximum flexural loads need to be developed. In this study, nonlinear finite element analysis of steel fiber reinforced high strength HVFA concrete beam under static loadings was conducted to investigate their failure modes in terms of ultimate load. First of all, the experimental investigation of mechanical properties of high strength HVFA concrete was done and validates with developed numerical model with the appropriate modeling of element size and mesh by ANSYS 16.2. To model the fiber within the concrete, three-dimensional random fiber distribution was simulated by spherical coordinate system. Three types of high strength HVFA concrete beams were analyzed reinforced with 0.5, 1 and 1.5% volume fractions of steel fibers with specific mechanical and physical properties. The result reveals that the use of nonlinear finite element analysis technique and three-dimensional random fiber orientation exhibited fairly good agreement with the experimental results of flexural strength, load deflection and crack propagation mechanism. By utilizing this improved model, it is possible to determine the flexural behavior of different types and proportions of steel fiber reinforced HVFA concrete beam under static load. So, this paper has the originality to predict the flexural properties of steel fiber reinforced high strength HVFA concrete by numerical simulations.

Keywords: finite element analysis, high volume fly ash, steel fibers, spherical coordinate system

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Muhd. Barzani Gasim, Mohd. Ekhwan Toriman, Mohd. Khairul Amri Kamarudin, Azman Azid, Siti Humaira Haron, Muhammad Hafiz Md. Saad

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Malaysia is a country in Southeast Asia that constantly exposed to flooding and landslide. The disaster has caused some troubles such loss of property, loss of life and discomfort of people involved. This problem occurs as a result of climate change leading to increased stream flow rate as a result of disruption to regional hydrological cycles. The aim of the study is to determine hydrologic processes in the east coasts of Peninsular Malaysia, especially in Kelantan Basin. Parameterized to account for the spatial and temporal variability of basin characteristics and their responses to climate variability. For hydrological modeling of the basin, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model such as relief, soil type, and its use, and historical daily time series of climate and river flow rates are studied. The interpretation of Landsat map/land uses will be applied in this study. The combined of SWAT and climate models, the system will be predicted an increase in future scenario climate precipitation, increase in surface runoff, increase in recharge and increase in the total water yield. As a result, this model has successfully developed the basin analysis by demonstrating analyzing hydrographs visually, good estimates of minimum and maximum flows and severe floods observed during calibration and validation periods.

Keywords: east coasts of Peninsular Malaysia, Kelantan river basin, minimum and maximum flows, severe floods, SWAT model

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Syed Toqueer, Omer Younus

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Terrorism, today, has emerged as a global menace with Pakistan being the most adversely affected state. Therefore, the motive behind this study is to empirically establish the linkage of terrorism with socio-economic (uneven income distribution, poverty and unemployment) and political nexuses so that a policy recommendation can be put forth to better approach this issue in Pakistan. For this purpose, the study employs two competing models, namely, the distributed lag model and OLS, so that findings of the model may be consolidated comprehensively, over the reference period of 1984-2012. The findings of both models are indicative of the fact that uneven income distribution of Pakistan is rather a contributing factor towards terrorism when measured through GDP per capita. This supports the hypothesis that immiserizing modernization theory is applicable for the state of Pakistan where the underprivileged are marginalized. Results also suggest that other socio-economic variables (poverty, unemployment and consumer confidence) can condense the brutality of terrorism once these conditions are catered to and improved. The rational of opportunity cost is at the base of this argument. Poor conditions of employment and poverty reduces the opportunity cost for individuals to be recruited by terrorist organizations as economic returns are considerably low and thus increasing the supply of volunteers and subsequently increasing the intensity of terrorism. The argument of political freedom as a means of lowering terrorism stands true. The more the people are politically repressed the more alternative and illegal means they will find to make their voice heard. Also, the argument that politically transitioning economy faces more terrorism is found applicable for Pakistan. Finally, the study contributes to an ongoing debate on which of the two set of factors are more significant with relation to terrorism by suggesting that socio-economic factors are found to be the primary causes of terrorism for Pakistan.

Keywords: terrorism, socioeconomic conditions, political freedom, distributed lag model, ordinary least square

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Nesreddine Djafar Henni, Akram Khelaifia, Salah Guettala, Rachid Chebili

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Reinforced concrete shear walls and vertical plate-like elements play a pivotal role in efficiently managing a building's response to seismic forces. This study investigates how the performance of reinforced concrete buildings equipped with shear walls featuring different shear wall-to-frame stiffness ratios aligns with the requirements stipulated in the Algerian seismic code RPA99v2003, particularly in high-seismicity regions. Seven distinct 3D finite element models are developed and evaluated through nonlinear static analysis. Engineering Demand Parameters (EDPs) such as lateral displacement, inter-story drift ratio, shear force, and bending moment along the building height are analyzed. The findings reveal two predominant categories of induced responses: force-based and displacement-based EDPs. Furthermore, as the shear wall-to-frame ratio increases, there is a concurrent increase in force-based EDPs and a decrease in displacement-based ones. Examining the distribution of shear walls from both force and displacement perspectives, model G with the highest stiffness ratio, concentrating stiffness at the building's center, intensifies induced forces. This configuration necessitates additional reinforcements, leading to a conservative design approach. Conversely, model C, with the lowest stiffness ratio, distributes stiffness towards the periphery, resulting in minimized induced shear forces and bending moments, representing an optimal scenario with maximal performance and minimal strength requirements.

Keywords: dual RC buildings, RC shear walls, modeling, static nonlinear pushover analysis, optimization, seismic performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Meng H. Lean, Wei-Ping L. Chu

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The effects of ferroelectric nanofiller size, shape, loading, and polarization, on bipolar charge injection, transport, and recombination through amorphous and semicrystalline polymers are studied. A 3D particle-in-cell model extends the classical electrical double layer representation to treat ferroelectric nanoparticles. Metal-polymer charge injection assumes Schottky emission and Fowler-Nordheim tunneling, migration through field-dependent Poole-Frenkel mobility, and recombination with Monte Carlo selection based on collision probability. A boundary integral equation method is used for solution of the Poisson equation coupled with a second-order predictor-corrector scheme for robust time integration of the equations of motion. The stability criterion of the explicit algorithm conforms to the Courant-Friedrichs-Levy limit. Trajectories for charge that make it through the film are curvilinear paths that meander through the interspaces. Results indicate that charge transport behavior depends on nanoparticle polarization with anti-parallel orientation showing the highest leakage conduction and lowest level of charge trapping in the interaction zone. Simulation prediction of a size range of 80 to 100 nm to minimize attachment and maximize conduction is validated by theory. Attached charge fractions go from 2.2% to 97% as nanofiller size is decreased from 150 nm to 60 nm. Computed conductivity of 0.4 x 1014 S/cm is in agreement with published data for plastics. Charge attachment is increased with spheroids due to the increase in surface area, and especially so for oblate spheroids showing the influence of larger cross-sections. Charge attachment to nanofillers and nanocrystallites increase with vol.% loading or degree of crystallinity, and saturate at about 40 vol.%.

Keywords: nanocomposites, nanofillers, electrical double layer, bipolar charge transport

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Mudassir Ghafoor, Irsalan Arif, Shuaib Salamat

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This paper presents modeling and analysis of different intake bump (compression surface) configurations and comparison with an existing supersonic aircraft having bump intake configuration. Many successful aircraft models have shown that Diverter less Supersonic Inlet (DSI) as compared to conventional intake can reduce weight, complexity and also maintenance cost. The research is divided into two parts. In the first part, four different intake bumps are modeled for comparative analysis keeping in view the consistency of outer perimeter dimensions of fighter aircraft and various characteristics such as flow behavior, boundary layer diversion and pressure recovery are analyzed. In the second part, modeled bumps are integrated with intake duct for performance analysis and comparison with existing supersonic aircraft data is carried out. The bumps are named as uniform large (Config 1), uniform small (Config 2), uniform sharp (Config 3), non-uniform (Config 4) based on their geometric features. Analysis is carried out at different Mach Numbers to analyze flow behavior in subsonic and supersonic regime. Flow behavior, boundary layer diversion and Pressure recovery are examined for each bump characteristics, and comparative study is carried out. The analysis reveals that at subsonic speed, Config 1 and Config 2 give similar pressure recoveries as diverterless supersonic intake, but difference in pressure recoveries becomes significant at supersonic speed. It was concluded from research that Config 1 gives better results as compared to Config 3. Also, higher amplitude (Config 1) is preferred over lower (Config 2 and 4). It was observed that maximum height of bump is preferred to be placed near cowl lip of intake duct.

Keywords: bump intake, boundary layer, computational fluid dynamics, diverter-less supersonic inlet

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: Paula Paulino, Alzira Matias, Ana Margarida Veiga Simão

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Self-regulated learning (SRL) directs students in analyzing proposed tasks, setting goals and designing plans to achieve those goals. The literature has suggested a metacognitive strategy for goal attainment known as Mental Contrasting with Implementation Intentions (MCII). This strategy involves Mental Contrasting (MC), in which a significant goal and an obstacle are identified, and Implementation Intentions (II), in which an "if... then…" plan is conceived and operationalized to overcome that obstacle. The present study proposes to assess the MCII process and whether it promotes students’ commitment towards learning goals during school tasks in sciences subjects. In this investigation, we intended to study the MCII strategy in a systemic context of the classroom. Fifty-six students from middle school and secondary education attending a public school in Lisbon (Portugal) participated in the study. The MCII strategy was explicitly taught in a procedure that included metacognitive modeling, guided practice and autonomous practice of strategy. A mental contrast between a goal they wanted to achieve and a possible obstacle to achieving that desire was instructed, and then the formulation of plans in order to overcome the obstacle identified previously. The preliminary results suggest that the MCII metacognitive strategy, applied to the school context, leads to more sophisticated reflections, the promotion of learning goals and the elaboration of more complex and specific self-regulated plans. Further, students achieve better results on school tests and worksheets after strategy practice. This study presents important implications since the MCII has been related to improved outcomes and increased attendance. Additionally, MCII seems to be an innovative process that captures students’ efforts to learn and enhances self-efficacy beliefs during learning tasks.

Keywords: implementation intentions, learning goals, mental contrasting, metacognitive strategy, self-regulated learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Florina Magdalena Anichitoae, Anca Dobrean, Ionut Stelian Florean

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Due to the fact that cyberbullying victimization is an increasing problem nowadays, affecting more and more children and adolescents around the world, we wanted to take a step forward analyzing this phenomenon. So, we took a look at some variables which haven't been studied together before, trying to develop another way to view cyberbullying victimization. We wanted to test the effects of the mother, father, and peer attachment on adolescent involvement in cyberbullying as victims through unconditional self acceptance. Furthermore, we analyzed each subscale of the IPPA-R, the instrument we have used for parents and peer attachment measurement, in regards to cyberbullying victimization through unconditional self acceptance. We have also analyzed if gender and age could be taken into consideration as moderators in this model. The analysis has been performed on 653 adolescents aged 11-17 years old from Romania. We used structural equation modeling, working in R program. For the fidelity analysis of the IPPA-R subscales, USAQ, and Cyberbullying Test, we have calculated the internal consistency index, which varies between .68-.91. We have created 2 models: the first model including peer alienation, peer trust, peer communication, self acceptance and cyberbullying victimization, having CFI=0.97, RMSEA=0.02, 90%CI [0.02, 0.03] and SRMR=0.07, and the second model including parental alienation, parental trust, parental communication, self acceptance and cyberbullying victimization and had CFI=0.97, RMSEA=0.02, 90%CI [0.02, 0.03] and SRMR=0.07. Our results were interesting: on one hand, cyberbullying victimization is predicted by peer alienation and peer communication through unconditional self acceptance. Peer trust directly, significantly, and negatively predicted the implication in cyberbullying. In this regard, considering gender and age as moderators, we found that the relationship between unconditional self acceptance and cyberbullying victimization is stronger in girls, but age does not moderate the relationship between unconditional self acceptance and cyberbullying victimization. On the other hand, regarding the degree of cyberbullying victimization as being predicted through unconditional self acceptance by parental alienation, parental communication, and parental trust, this hypothesis was not supported. Still, we could identify a direct path to positively predict victimization through parental alienation and negatively through parental trust. There are also some limitations to this study, which we've discussed in the end.

Keywords: adolescent, attachment, cyberbullying victimization, parents, peers, unconditional self-acceptance

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: Arwin Malabanan, Carl Chester Ragudo, Jerome Tadiosa, John Dee Mangoba, Eric Augustus Tingatinga, Romeo Eliezer Longalong

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Concrete hollow blocks (CHB) are the most commonly used masonry block for walls in residential houses, school buildings and public buildings in the Philippines. During the recent 2013 Bohol earthquake (Mw 7.2), it has been proven that CHB walls are very vulnerable to severe external action like strong ground motion. In this paper, a numerical model of CHB structures is proposed, and seismic behavior of CHB houses is presented. In modeling, the Rigid Body Spring-Discrete Element method (RBS-DEM)) is used wherein masonry blocks are discretized into rigid elements and connected by nonlinear springs at preselected contact points. The shear and normal stiffness of springs are derived from the material properties of CHB unit incorporating the grout and mortar fillings through the volumetric transformation of the dimension using material ratio. Numerical models of reinforced and unreinforced walls are first subjected to linearly-increasing in plane loading to observe the different failure mechanisms. These wall models are then assembled to form typical model masonry houses and then subjected to the El Centro and Pacoima earthquake records. Numerical simulations show that the elastic, failure and collapse behavior of the model houses agree well with shaking table tests results. The effectiveness of the method in replicating failure patterns will serve as a basis for the improvement of the design and provides a good basis of strengthening the structure.

Keywords: concrete hollow blocks, discrete element method, earthquake, rigid body spring model

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: Addisu H. Addis, Hugh T. Blair, Paul R. Kenyon, Stephen T. Morris, Nicola M. Schreurs, Dorian J. Garrick

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Agent-based modeling (ABM) enables an in silico representation of complex systems and cap-tures agent behavior resulting from interaction with other agents and their environment. This study developed an ABM to represent a pasture-based beef cattle finishing systems in New Zea-land (NZ) using attributes of the rearer, finisher, and processor, as well as specific attributes of dairy-origin beef cattle. The model was parameterized using values representing 1% of NZ dairy-origin cattle, and 10% of rearers and finishers in NZ. The cattle agent consisted of 32% Holstein-Friesian, 50% Holstein-Friesian–Jersey crossbred, and 8% Jersey, with the remainder being other breeds. Rearers and finishers repetitively and simultaneously interacted to determine the type and number of cattle populating the finishing system. Rearers brought in four-day-old spring-born calves and reared them until 60 calves (representing a full truck load) on average had a live weight of 100 kg before selling them on to finishers. Finishers mainly attained weaners from rearers, or directly from dairy farmers when weaner demand was higher than the supply from rearers. Fast-growing cattle were sent for slaughter before the second winter, and the re-mainder were sent before their third winter. The model finished a higher number of bulls than heifers and steers, although it was 4% lower than the industry reported value. Holstein-Friesian and Holstein-Friesian–Jersey-crossbred cattle dominated the dairy-origin beef finishing system. Jersey cattle account for less than 5% of total processed beef cattle. Further studies to include re-tailer and consumer perspectives and other decision alternatives for finishing farms would im-prove the applicability of the model for decision-making processes.

Keywords: agent-based modelling, dairy cattle, beef finishing, rearers, finishers

Procedia PDF Downloads 99