Search results for: extended binomial model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 17203

Search results for: extended binomial model

16843 Evaluation of the Effect of Learning Disabilities and Accommodations on the Prediction of the Exam Performance: Ordinal Decision-Tree Algorithm

Authors: G. Singer, M. Golan

Abstract:

Providing students with learning disabilities (LD) with extra time to grant them equal access to the exam is a necessary but insufficient condition to compensate for their LD; there should also be a clear indication that the additional time was actually used. For example, if students with LD use more time than students without LD and yet receive lower grades, this may indicate that a different accommodation is required. If they achieve higher grades but use the same amount of time, then the effectiveness of the accommodation has not been demonstrated. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the effect of including parameters related to LD and extended exam time, along with other commonly-used characteristics (e.g., student background and ability measures such as high-school grades), on the ability of ordinal decision-tree algorithms to predict exam performance. We use naturally-occurring data collected from hundreds of undergraduate engineering students. The sub-goals are i) to examine the improvement in prediction accuracy when the indicator of exam performance includes 'actual time used' in addition to the conventional indicator (exam grade) employed in most research; ii) to explore the effectiveness of extended exam time on exam performance for different courses and for LD students with different profiles (i.e., sets of characteristics). This is achieved by using the patterns (i.e., subgroups) generated by the algorithms to identify pairs of subgroups that differ in just one characteristic (e.g., course or type of LD) but have different outcomes in terms of exam performance (grade and time used). Since grade and time used to exhibit an ordering form, we propose a method based on ordinal decision-trees, which applies a weighted information-gain ratio (WIGR) measure for selecting the classifying attributes. Unlike other known ordinal algorithms, our method does not assume monotonicity in the data. The proposed WIGR is an extension of an information-theoretic measure, in the sense that it adjusts to the case of an ordinal target and takes into account the error severity between two different target classes. Specifically, we use ordinal C4.5, random-forest, and AdaBoost algorithms, as well as an ensemble technique composed of ordinal and non-ordinal classifiers. Firstly, we find that the inclusion of LD and extended exam-time parameters improves prediction of exam performance (compared to specifications of the algorithms that do not include these variables). Secondly, when the indicator of exam performance includes 'actual time used' together with grade (as opposed to grade only), the prediction accuracy improves. Thirdly, our subgroup analyses show clear differences in the effect of extended exam time on exam performance among different courses and different student profiles. From a methodological perspective, we find that the ordinal decision-tree based algorithms outperform their conventional, non-ordinal counterparts. Further, we demonstrate that the ensemble-based approach leverages the strengths of each type of classifier (ordinal and non-ordinal) and yields better performance than each classifier individually.

Keywords: actual exam time usage, ensemble learning, learning disabilities, ordinal classification, time extension

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16842 Development of an Analytical Model for a Synchronous Permanent Magnet Generator

Authors: T. Sahbani, M. Bouteraa, R. Wamkeue

Abstract:

Wind Turbine are considered to be one of the more efficient system of energy production nowadays, a reason that leads the main industrial companies in wind turbine construction and researchers in over the world to look for better performance and one of the ways for that is the use of the synchronous permanent magnet generator. In this context, this work is about developing an analytical model that could simulate different situation in which the synchronous generator may go through, and of course this model match perfectly with the numerical and experimental model.

Keywords: MATLAB, synchronous permanent magnet generator, wind turbine, analytical model

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16841 Forecasting Materials Demand from Multi-Source Ordering

Authors: Hui Hsin Huang

Abstract:

The downstream manufactures will order their materials from different upstream suppliers to maintain a certain level of the demand. This paper proposes a bivariate model to portray this phenomenon of material demand. We use empirical data to estimate the parameters of model and evaluate the RMSD of model calibration. The results show that the model has better fitness.

Keywords: recency, ordering time, materials demand quantity, multi-source ordering

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16840 Survival Analysis Based Delivery Time Estimates for Display FAB

Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek

Abstract:

In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model

Procedia PDF Downloads 510
16839 Confidence Envelopes for Parametric Model Selection Inference and Post-Model Selection Inference

Authors: I. M. L. Nadeesha Jayaweera, Adao Alex Trindade

Abstract:

In choosing a candidate model in likelihood-based modeling via an information criterion, the practitioner is often faced with the difficult task of deciding just how far up the ranked list to look. Motivated by this pragmatic necessity, we construct an uncertainty band for a generalized (model selection) information criterion (GIC), defined as a criterion for which the limit in probability is identical to that of the normalized log-likelihood. This includes common special cases such as AIC & BIC. The method starts from the asymptotic normality of the GIC for the joint distribution of the candidate models in an independent and identically distributed (IID) data framework and proceeds by deriving the (asymptotically) exact distribution of the minimum. The calculation of an upper quantile for its distribution then involves the computation of multivariate Gaussian integrals, which is amenable to efficient implementation via the R package "mvtnorm". The performance of the methodology is tested on simulated data by checking the coverage probability of nominal upper quantiles and compared to the bootstrap. Both methods give coverages close to nominal for large samples, but the bootstrap is two orders of magnitude slower. The methodology is subsequently extended to two other commonly used model structures: regression and time series. In the regression case, we derive the corresponding asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC invoking Lindeberg-Feller type conditions for triangular arrays and are thus able to similarly calculate upper quantiles for its distribution via multivariate Gaussian integration. The bootstrap once again provides a default competing procedure, and we find that similar comparison performance metrics hold as for the IID case. The time series case is complicated by far more intricate asymptotic regime for the joint distribution of the model GIC statistics. Under a Gaussian likelihood, the default in most packages, one needs to derive the limiting distribution of a normalized quadratic form for a realization from a stationary series. Under conditions on the process satisfied by ARMA models, a multivariate normal limit is once again achieved. The bootstrap can, however, be employed for its computation, whence we are once again in the multivariate Gaussian integration paradigm for upper quantile evaluation. Comparisons of this bootstrap-aided semi-exact method with the full-blown bootstrap once again reveal a similar performance but faster computation speeds. One of the most difficult problems in contemporary statistical methodological research is to be able to account for the extra variability introduced by model selection uncertainty, the so-called post-model selection inference (PMSI). We explore ways in which the GIC uncertainty band can be inverted to make inferences on the parameters. This is being attempted in the IID case by pivoting the CDF of the asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC. For inference one parameter at a time and a small number of candidate models, this works well, whence the attained PMSI confidence intervals are wider than the MLE-based Wald, as expected.

Keywords: model selection inference, generalized information criteria, post model selection, Asymptotic Theory

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16838 A Platform to Analyze Controllers for Solar Hot Water Systems

Authors: Aziz Ahmad, Guillermo Ramirez-Prado

Abstract:

Governments around the world encourage the use of solar water heating in residential houses due to the low maintenance requirements and efficiency of the solar collector water heating systems. The aim of this work is to study a domestic solar water heating system in a residential building to develop a model of the entire solar water heating system including flat-plate solar collector and storage tank. The proposed model is adaptable to any households and location. The model can be used to test different types of controllers and can provide efficiency as well as economic analysis. The proposed model is based on the heat and mass transfer equations along with assumptions applied in the model which can be modified for a variety of different solar water heating systems and sizes. Simulation results of the model were compared with the actual system which shows similar trends.

Keywords: solar thermal systems, solar water heating, solar collector model, hot water tank model, solar controllers

Procedia PDF Downloads 241
16837 A Controlled Mathematical Model for Population Dynamics in an Infested Honeybees Colonies

Authors: Chakib Jerry, Mounir Jerry

Abstract:

In this paper, a mathematical model of infested honey bees colonies is formulated in order to investigate Colony Collapse Disorder in a honeybee colony. CCD, as it is known, is a major problem on honeybee farms because of the massive decline in colony numbers. We introduce to the model a control variable which represents forager protection. We study the controlled model to derive conditions under which the bee colony can fight off epidemic. Secondly we study the problem of minimizing prevention cost under model’s dynamics constraints.

Keywords: honey bee, disease transmission model, disease control honeybees, optimal control

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16836 Design and Test a Robust Bearing-Only Target Motion Analysis Algorithm Based on Modified Gain Extended Kalman Filter

Authors: Mohammad Tarek Al Muallim, Ozhan Duzenli, Ceyhun Ilguy

Abstract:

Passive sonar is a method for detecting acoustic signals in the ocean. It detects the acoustic signals emanating from external sources. With passive sonar, we can determine the bearing of the target only, no information about the range of the target. Target Motion Analysis (TMA) is a process to estimate the position and speed of a target using passive sonar information. Since bearing is the only available information, the TMA technique called Bearing-only TMA. Many TMA techniques have been developed. However, until now, there is not a very effective method that could be used to always track an unknown target and extract its moving trace. In this work, a design of effective Bearing-only TMA Algorithm is done. The measured bearing angles are very noisy. Moreover, for multi-beam sonar, the measurements is quantized due to the sonar beam width. To deal with this, modified gain extended Kalman filter algorithm is used. The algorithm is fine-tuned, and many modules are added to improve the performance. A special validation gate module is used to insure stability of the algorithm. Many indicators of the performance and confidence level measurement are designed and tested. A new method to detect if the target is maneuvering is proposed. Moreover, a reactive optimal observer maneuver based on bearing measurements is proposed, which insure converging to the right solution all of the times. To test the performance of the proposed TMA algorithm a simulation is done with a MATLAB program. The simulator program tries to model a discrete scenario for an observer and a target. The simulator takes into consideration all the practical aspects of the problem such as a smooth transition in the speed, a circular turn of the ship, noisy measurements, and a quantized bearing measurement come for multi-beam sonar. The tests are done for a lot of given test scenarios. For all the tests, full tracking is achieved within 10 minutes with very little error. The range estimation error was less than 5%, speed error less than 5% and heading error less than 2 degree. For the online performance estimator, it is mostly aligned with the real performance. The range estimation confidence level gives a value equal to 90% when the range error less than 10%. The experiments show that the proposed TMA algorithm is very robust and has low estimation error. However, the converging time of the algorithm is needed to be improved.

Keywords: target motion analysis, Kalman filter, passive sonar, bearing-only tracking

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16835 Hospital 4.0 Maturity Assessment Model Development: Case of Moroccan Public Hospitals

Authors: T. Benazzouz, K. Auhmani

Abstract:

This paper presents a Hospital 4.0 Maturity Assessment Model based on the Industry 4.0 concepts. The self-assessment model defines current and target states of digital transformation by considering multiple aspects of a hospital and a healthcare supply chain. The developed model was validated and evaluated on real-life cases. The resulting model consisted of 5 domains: Technology, Strategy 4.0, Human resources 4.0 & Culture 4.0, Supply chain 4.0 management, and Patient journeys management. Each domain is further divided into several sub-domains, totally 34 sub-domains are identified, that reflect different facets of a hospital 4.0 mature organization.

Keywords: hospital 4.0, Industry 4.0, maturity assessment model, supply chain 4.0, patient

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16834 Effect of Naameh Landfill (Lebanon) on Groundwater Quality of the Surrounding Area

Authors: Rana Sawaya, Jalal Halwani, Isam Bashour, Nada Nehme

Abstract:

Mismanagement of municipal solid wastes in Lebanon might lead to serious environmental problems, especially that a big portion of mixed wastes including putrescible is transferred to Naameh landfill. One of the consequences of municipal solid waste deposition is the production of landfill leachate, which if unproperly treated will threaten the main crucial matrices such as soil, water, and air. The main aim of this one of a kind study is to assess the risk posed to groundwater as a result of leachate infiltration on off-site wells especially after stoppage of Naameh landfill's operation end of the year 2016 and initiation of the capping process which is still ongoing and will be finalized in December 2019. For this purpose, nine representative points around the landfill were selected to undergo physicochemical and microbial analysis on a seasonal basis (every three months). The study extended from the year 2014 until the end of the year 2016 (closure of Naameh landfill). The preliminary data obtained are statistically analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) and was found in conformity with international and Lebanese norms. Thus, the study will be extended an additional year, especially after the finalization of capping and the results obtained, will enable us to propose new techniques and tools (treatment systems) in water resources management depending on the direction of its usage (domestic, irrigation, drinking).

Keywords: contamination, groundwater, leachate, Lebanon, solid waste

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16833 Numerical Simulations of the Transition Flow of Model Propellers for Predicting Open Water Performance

Authors: Huilan Yao, Huaixin Zhang

Abstract:

Simulations of the transition flow of model propellers are important for predicting hydrodynamic performance and studying scale effects. In this paper, the transition flow of a model propeller under different loadings are simulated using a transition model provided by STAR-CCM+, and the influence of turbulence intensity (TI) on the transition, especially friction and pressure components of propeller performance, was studied. Before that, the transition model was applied to simulate the transition flow of a flat plate and an airfoil. Predicted transitions agree well with experimental results. Then, the transition model was applied for propeller simulations in open water, and the influence of TI was studied. Under the heavy and moderate loadings, thrust and torque of the propeller predicted by the transition model (different TI) and two turbulence models are very close and agree well with measurements. However, under the light loading, only the transition model with low TI predicts the most accurate results. Above all, the friction components of propeller performance predicted by the transition model with different TI have obvious difference.

Keywords: transition flow, model propellers, hydrodynamic performance, numerical simulation

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16832 Strategic Model of Implementing E-Learning Using Funnel Model

Authors: Mohamed Jama Madar, Oso Wilis

Abstract:

E-learning is the application of information technology in the teaching and learning process. This paper presents the Funnel model as a solution for the problems of implementation of e-learning in tertiary education institutions. While existing models such as TAM, theory-based e-learning and pedagogical model have been used over time, they have generally been found to be inadequate because of their tendencies to treat materials development, instructional design, technology, delivery and governance as separate and isolated entities. Yet it is matching components that bring framework of e-learning strategic implementation. The Funnel model enhances all these into one and applies synchronously and asynchronously to e-learning implementation where the only difference is modalities. Such a model for e-learning implementation has been lacking. The proposed Funnel model avoids ad-ad-hoc approach which has made other systems unused or inefficient, and compromised educational quality. Therefore, the proposed Funnel model should help tertiary education institutions adopt and develop effective and efficient e-learning system which meets users’ requirements.

Keywords: e-learning, pedagogical, technology, strategy

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16831 Nonlinear Modelling of Sloshing Waves and Solitary Waves in Shallow Basins

Authors: Mohammad R. Jalali, Mohammad M. Jalali

Abstract:

The earliest theories of sloshing waves and solitary waves based on potential theory idealisations and irrotational flow have been extended to be applicable to more realistic domains. To this end, the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods are widely used. Three-dimensional CFD methods such as Navier-Stokes solvers with volume of fluid treatment of the free surface and Navier-Stokes solvers with mappings of the free surface inherently impose high computational expense; therefore, considerable effort has gone into developing depth-averaged approaches. Examples of such approaches include Green–Naghdi (GN) equations. In Cartesian system, GN velocity profile depends on horizontal directions, x-direction and y-direction. The effect of vertical direction (z-direction) is also taken into consideration by applying weighting function in approximation. GN theory considers the effect of vertical acceleration and the consequent non-hydrostatic pressure. Moreover, in GN theory, the flow is rotational. The present study illustrates the application of GN equations to propagation of sloshing waves and solitary waves. For this purpose, GN equations solver is verified for the benchmark tests of Gaussian hump sloshing and solitary wave propagation in shallow basins. Analysis of the free surface sloshing of even harmonic components of an initial Gaussian hump demonstrates that the GN model gives predictions in satisfactory agreement with the linear analytical solutions. Discrepancies between the GN predictions and the linear analytical solutions arise from the effect of wave nonlinearities arising from the wave amplitude itself and wave-wave interactions. Numerically predicted solitary wave propagation indicates that the GN model produces simulations in good agreement with the analytical solution of the linearised wave theory. Comparison between the GN model numerical prediction and the result from perturbation analysis confirms that nonlinear interaction between solitary wave and a solid wall is satisfactorilly modelled. Moreover, solitary wave propagation at an angle to the x-axis and the interaction of solitary waves with each other are conducted to validate the developed model.

Keywords: Green–Naghdi equations, nonlinearity, numerical prediction, sloshing waves, solitary waves

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16830 The Grand Unified Theory of Everything as a Generalization to the Standard Model Called as the General Standard Model

Authors: Amir Deljoo

Abstract:

The endeavor to comprehend the existence have been the center of thought for human in form of different disciplines and now basically in physics as the theory of everything. Here, after a brief review of the basic frameworks of thought, and a history of thought since ancient up to present, a logical methodology is presented based on a core axiom after which a function, a proto-field and then a coordinates are explained. Afterwards a generalization to Standard Model is proposed as General Standard Model which is believed to be the base of the Unified Theory of Everything.

Keywords: general relativity, grand unified theory, quantum mechanics, standard model, theory of everything

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16829 Definition of a Computing Independent Model and Rules for Transformation Focused on the Model-View-Controller Architecture

Authors: Vanessa Matias Leite, Jandira Guenka Palma, Flávio Henrique de Oliveira

Abstract:

This paper presents a model-oriented development approach to software development in the Model-View-Controller (MVC) architectural standard. This approach aims to expose a process of extractions of information from the models, in which through rules and syntax defined in this work, assists in the design of the initial model and its future conversions. The proposed paper presents a syntax based on the natural language, according to the rules agreed in the classic grammar of the Portuguese language, added to the rules of conversions generating models that follow the norms of the Object Management Group (OMG) and the Meta-Object Facility MOF.

Keywords: BNF Syntax, model driven architecture, model-view-controller, transformation, UML

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16828 1D Velocity Model for the Gobi-Altai Region from Local Earthquakes

Authors: Dolgormaa Munkhbaatar, Munkhsaikhan Adiya, Tseedulam Khuut

Abstract:

We performed an inversion method to determine the 1D-velocity model with station corrections of the Gobi-Altai area in the southern part of Mongolia using earthquake data collected in the National Data Center during the last 10 years. In this study, the concept of the new 1D model has been employed to minimize the average RMS of a set of well-located earthquakes, recorded at permanent (between 2006 and 2016) and temporary seismic stations (between 2014 and 2016), compute solutions for the coupled hypocenter and 1D velocity model. We selected 4800 events with RMS less than 0.5 seconds and with a maximum GAP of 170 degrees and determined velocity structures. Also, we relocated all possible events located in the Gobi-Altai area using the new 1D velocity model and achieved constrained hypocentral determinations for events within this area. We concluded that the estimated new 1D velocity model is a relatively low range compared to the previous velocity model in a significant improvement intend to, and the quality of the information basis for future research center locations to determine the earthquake epicenter area with this new transmission model.

Keywords: 1D velocity model, earthquake, relocation, Velest

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16827 An Elbow Biomechanical Model and Its Coefficients Adjustment

Authors: Jie Bai, Yongsheng Gao, Shengxin Wang, Jie Zhao

Abstract:

Through the establishment of the elbow biomechanical model, it can provide theoretical guide for rehabilitation therapy on the upper limb of the human body. A biomechanical model of the elbow joint can be built by the connection of muscle force model and elbow dynamics. But there are many undetermined coefficients in the model like the optimal joint angle and optimal muscle force which are usually specified as the experimental parameters of other workers. Because of the individual differences, there is a certain deviation of the final result. To this end, the RMS value of the deviation between the actual angle and calculated angle is considered. A set of coefficients which lead to the minimum RMS value will be chosen to be the optimal parameters. The direct search method and the conjugacy search method are used to get the optimal parameters, thus the model can be more accurate and mode adaptability.

Keywords: elbow biomechanical model, RMS, direct search, conjugacy search

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16826 Forecasting for Financial Stock Returns Using a Quantile Function Model

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model

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16825 Surveying Energy Dissipation in Stepped Spillway Using Finite Element Modeling

Authors: Mehdi Fuladipanah

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Stepped spillway includes several steps from the crest to the toe. The steps of stepped spillway could cause to decrease the energy with making energy distribution in the longitude mode and also to reduce the outcome speed. The aim of this study was to stimulate the stepped spillway combined with stilling basin-step using Fluent model and the turbulent superficial flow using RNG, K-ε. The free surface of the flow was monitored by VOF model. The velocity and the depth of the flow were measured by tail water depth by the numerical model and then the dissipated energy was calculated along the spillway. The results indicated that the stilling basin-step complex may cause energy dissipation increment in the stepped spillway. Also, the numerical model was suggested as an effective method to predict the circular and complicated flows in the stepped spillways.

Keywords: stepped spillway, fluent model, VOF model, K-ε model, energy distribution

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16824 Majority through the Eyes of Minority: The Role of Social Norms in the Link between Intergroup Contact and Attitudes of the Roma toward Majority Society

Authors: Roman Koky, Sylvie Graf

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The relationship between the Roma and members of the majority is tense across Europe due to the fact that the Roma people are the most stigmatized minorities. Studies show that Roma is discriminated against on all levels of society. Improving intergroup relations between the Roma and members of the majority (i.e., non-Roma) is thus one of the most pressing issues of social psychological research. Intergroup contact theory is one of the most effective strategies for improving intergroup relations. However, current research has some limitations, such as the fact that most researchers focus primarily on the perspective of the majority, while the perspective of minorities (e.g., the Roma) is largely missing. Due to the persisting segregation of Roma, and thus the lack of opportunities for direct intergroup contact between the Roma and the majority, using direct intergroup contact as an intervention to reduce prejudice is difficult. In this research, we, therefore, focused on the effect of indirect forms of intergroup contact, particularly extended contact (i.e., experiences with outgroup members shared by fellow ingroup members such as friends or family). Extended contact functions as a descriptive social norm that informs about the actual amount of contact in one’s environment. In a group of Czech Roma (N = 226), the descriptive social norm was associated with ingroup injunctive social norm (e.g., the perceived support of intergroup contact with non-Roma by fellow ingroup members) and lower amount of prejudice toward the non-Roma. We discuss the findings with respect to possibilities to improve the relations between Roma and members of the majority across Europe.

Keywords: intergroup contact, prejudice, majority, minority, social norms

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16823 Transport Mode Selection under Lead Time Variability and Emissions Constraint

Authors: Chiranjit Das, Sanjay Jharkharia

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This study is focused on transport mode selection under lead time variability and emissions constraint. In order to reduce the carbon emissions generation due to transportation, organization has often faced a dilemmatic choice of transport mode selection since logistic cost and emissions reduction are complementary with each other. Another important aspect of transportation decision is lead-time variability which is least considered in transport mode selection problem. Thus, in this study, we provide a comprehensive mathematical based analytical model to decide transport mode selection under emissions constraint. We also extend our work through analysing the effect of lead time variability in the transport mode selection by a sensitivity analysis. In order to account lead time variability into the model, two identically normally distributed random variables are incorporated in this study including unit lead time variability and lead time demand variability. Therefore, in this study, we are addressing following questions: How the decisions of transport mode selection will be affected by lead time variability? How lead time variability will impact on total supply chain cost under carbon emissions? To accomplish these objectives, a total transportation cost function is developed including unit purchasing cost, unit transportation cost, emissions cost, holding cost during lead time, and penalty cost for stock out due to lead time variability. A set of modes is available to transport each node, in this paper, we consider only four transport modes such as air, road, rail, and water. Transportation cost, distance, emissions level for each transport mode is considered as deterministic and static in this paper. Each mode is having different emissions level depending on the distance and product characteristics. Emissions cost is indirectly affected by the lead time variability if there is any switching of transport mode from lower emissions prone transport mode to higher emissions prone transport mode in order to reduce penalty cost. We provide a numerical analysis in order to study the effectiveness of the mathematical model. We found that chances of stock out during lead time will be higher due to the higher variability of lead time and lad time demand. Numerical results show that penalty cost of air transport mode is negative that means chances of stock out zero, but, having higher holding and emissions cost. Therefore, air transport mode is only selected when there is any emergency order to reduce penalty cost, otherwise, rail and road transport is the most preferred mode of transportation. Thus, this paper is contributing to the literature by a novel approach to decide transport mode under emissions cost and lead time variability. This model can be extended by studying the effect of lead time variability under some other strategic transportation issues such as modal split option, full truck load strategy, and demand consolidation strategy etc.

Keywords: carbon emissions, inventory theoretic model, lead time variability, transport mode selection

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16822 Fluid–Structure Interaction Modeling of Wind Turbines

Authors: Andre F. A. Cyrino

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Knowing that the technological advance is the focus on the efficient extraction of energy from wind, and therefore in the design of wind turbine structures, this work aims the study of the fluid-structure interaction of an idealized wind turbine. The blade was studied as a beam attached to a cylindrical Hub with rotation axis pointing the air flow that passes through the rotor. Using the calculus of variations and the finite difference method the blade will be simulated by a discrete number of nodes and the aerodynamic forces were evaluated. The study presented here was written on Matlab and performs a numeric simulation of a simplified model of windmill containing a Hub and three blades modeled as Euler-Bernoulli beams for small strains and under the constant and uniform wind. The mathematical approach is done by Hamilton’s Extended Principle with the aerodynamic loads applied on the nodes considering the local relative wind speed, angle of attack and aerodynamic lift and drag coefficients. Due to the wide range of angles of attack, a wind turbine blade operates, the airfoil used on the model was NREL SERI S809 which allowed obtaining equations for Cl and Cd as functions of the angle of attack, based on a NASA study. Tridimensional flow effects were no taken in part, as well as torsion of the beam, which only bends. The results showed the dynamic response of the system in terms of displacement and rotational speed as the turbine reached the final speed. Although the results were not compared to real windmills or more complete models, the resulting values were consistent with the size of the system and wind speed.

Keywords: blade aerodynamics, fluid–structure interaction, wind turbine aerodynamics, wind turbine blade

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16821 Monitoring Three-Dimensional Models of Tree and Forest by Using Digital Close-Range Photogrammetry

Authors: S. Y. Cicekli

Abstract:

In this study, tree-dimensional model of tree was created by using terrestrial close range photogrammetry. For this close range photos were taken. Photomodeler Pro 5 software was used for camera calibration and create three-dimensional model of trees. In first test, three-dimensional model of a tree was created, in the second test three-dimensional model of three trees were created. This study aim is creating three-dimensional model of trees and indicate the use of close-range photogrammetry in forestry. At the end of the study, three-dimensional model of tree and three trees were created. This study showed that usability of close-range photogrammetry for monitoring tree and forests three-dimensional model.

Keywords: close- range photogrammetry, forest, tree, three-dimensional model

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16820 A Mathematical-Based Formulation of EEG Fluctuations

Authors: Razi Khalafi

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Brain is the information processing center of the human body. Stimuli in form of information are transferred to the brain and then brain makes the decision on how to respond to them. In this research we propose a new partial differential equation which analyses the EEG signals and make a relationship between the incoming stimuli and the brain response to them. In order to test the proposed model, a set of external stimuli applied to the model and the model’s outputs were checked versus the real EEG data. The results show that this model can model the EEG signal well. The proposed model is useful not only for modeling of the EEG signal in case external stimuli but it can be used for the modeling of brain response in case of internal stimuli.

Keywords: Brain, stimuli, partial differential equation, response, eeg signal

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16819 Performance and Availability Analysis of 2N Redundancy Models

Authors: Yutae Lee

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In this paper, we consider the performance and availability of a redundancy model. The redundancy model is a form of resilience that ensures service availability in the event of component failure. This paper considers a 2N redundancy model. In the model there are at most one active service unit and at most one standby service unit. The active one is providing the service while the standby is prepared to take over the active role when the active fails. We design our analysis model using Stochastic Reward Nets, and then evaluate the performance and availability of 2N redundancy model using Stochastic Petri Net Package (SPNP).

Keywords: availability, performance, stochastic reward net, 2N redundancy

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16818 Use of Extended Conversation to Boost Vocabulary Knowledge and Soft Skills in English for Employment Classes

Authors: James G. Matthew, Seonmin Huh, Frank X. Bennett

Abstract:

English for Specific Purposes, ESP, aims to equip learners with necessary English language skills. Many ESP programs address language skills for job performance, including reading job related documents and oral proficiency. Within ESP is English for occupational purposes, EOP, which centers around developing communicative competence for the globalized workplace. Many ESP and EOP courses lack the content needed to assist students to progress at work, resulting in the need to create lexical compilation for different professions. It is important to teach communicative competence and soft skills for real job-related problem situations and address the complexities of the real world to help students to be successful in their professions. ESP and EOP research is therefore trying to balance both profession-specific educational contents as well as international multi-disciplinary language skills for the globalized workforce. The current study will build upon the existing discussion by developing pedagogy to assist students in their career through developing a strong practical command of relevant English vocabulary. Our research question focuses on the pedagogy two professors incorporated in their English for employment courses. The current study is a qualitative case study on the modes of teaching delivery for EOP in South Korea. Two foreign professors teaching at two different universities in South Korea volunteered for the study to explore their teaching practices. Both professors’ curriculums included the components of employment-related concept vocabulary, business presentations, CV/resume and cover letter preparation, and job interview preparation. All the pre-made recorded video lectures, live online class sessions with students, teachers’ lesson plans, teachers’ class materials, students’ assignments, and midterm and finals video conferences were collected for data analysis. The study then focused on unpacking representative patterns in their teaching methods. The professors used their strengths as native speakers to extend the class discussion from narrow and restricted conversations to giving students broader opportunities to practice authentic English conversation. The methods of teaching utilized three main steps to extend the conversation. Firstly, students were taught concept vocabulary. Secondly, the vocabulary was then combined in speaking activities where students had to solve scenarios, and the students were required to expand on the given forms of words and language expressions. Lastly, the students had conversations in English, using the language learnt. The conversations observed in both classes were those of authentic, expanded English communication and this way of expanding concept vocabulary lessons into extended conversation is one representative pedagogical approach that both professors took. Extended English conversation, therefore, is crucial for EOP education.

Keywords: concept vocabulary, english as a foreign language, english for employment, extended conversation

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16817 Flashsonar or Echolocation Education: Expanding the Function of Hearing and Changing the Meaning of Blindness

Authors: Thomas, Daniel Tajo, Kish

Abstract:

Sight is primarily associated with the function of gathering and processing near and extended spatial information which is largely used to support self-determined interaction with the environment through self-directed movement and navigation. By contrast, hearing is primarily associated with the function of gathering and processing sequential information which may typically be used to support self-determined communication through the self-directed use of music and language. Blindness or the lack of vision is traditionally characterized by a lack of capacity to access spatial information which, in turn, is presumed to result in a lack of capacity for self-determined interaction with the environment due to limitations in self-directed movement and navigation. However, through a specific protocol of FlashSonar education developed by World Access for the Blind, the function of hearing can be expanded in blind people to carry out some of the functions normally associated with sight, that is to access and process near and extended spatial information to construct three-dimensional acoustic images of the environment. This perceptual education protocol results in a significant restoration in blind people of self-determined environmental interaction, movement, and navigational capacities normally attributed to vision - a new way to see. Thus, by expanding the function of hearing to process spatial information to restore self-determined movement, we are not only changing the meaning of blindness, and what it means to be blind, but we are also recasting the meaning of vision and what it is to see.

Keywords: echolocation, changing, sensory, function

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16816 Numerical Simulation of Phase Transfer during Cryosurgery for an Irregular Tumor Using Hybrid Approach

Authors: Rama Bhargava, Surabhi Nishad

Abstract:

The infusion of nanofluids has dramatically enhanced the heat-carrying capacity of the fluids, applicable to many engineering and medical process where the temperature below freezing is required. Cryosurgery is an efficient therapy for the treatment of cancer, but sometimes the excessive cooling may harm the nearby healthy cells. Efforts are therefore done to develop a model which can cause to generate the low temperature as required. In the present study, a mathematical model is developed based on the bioheat transfer equation to simulate the heat transfer from the probe on a tumor (with irregular domain) using the hybrid technique consisting of element free Galerkin method with αα-family of approximation. The probe is loaded will nano-particles. The effects of different nanoparticles, namely Al₂O₃, Fe₃O₄, Au on the heat-producing rate, is obtained. It is observed that the temperature can be brought to (60°C)-(-30°C) at a faster freezing rate on the infusion of different nanoparticles. Besides increasing the freezing rate, the volume of the nanoparticle can also control the size and growth of ice crystals formed during the freezing process. The study is also made to find the time required to achieve the desired temperature. The problem is further extended for multi tumors of different shapes and sizes. The irregular shape of the frozen domain and the direction of ice growth are very sensitive issues, posing a challenge for simulation. The Meshfree method has been one of the accurate methods in such problems as a domain is naturally irregular. The discretization is done using the nodes only. MLS approximation is taken in order to generate the shape functions. Sufficiently accurate results are obtained.

Keywords: cryosurgery, EFGM, hybrid, nanoparticles

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16815 A Proposal for a Combustion Model Considering the Lewis Number and Its Evaluation

Authors: Fujio Akagi, Hiroaki Ito, Shin-Ichi Inage

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to develop a combustion model that can be applied uniformly to laminar and turbulent premixed flames while considering the effect of the Lewis number (Le). The model considers the effect of Le on the transport equations of the reaction progress, which varies with the chemical species and temperature. The distribution of the reaction progress variable is approximated by a hyperbolic tangent function, while the other distribution of the reaction progress variable is estimated using the approximated distribution and transport equation of the reaction progress variable considering the Le. The validity of the model was evaluated under the conditions of propane with Le > 1 and methane with Le = 1 (equivalence ratios of 0.5 and 1). The estimated results were found to be in good agreement with those of previous studies under all conditions. A method of introducing a turbulence model into this model is also described. It was confirmed that conventional turbulence models can be expressed as an approximate theory of this model in a unified manner.

Keywords: combustion model, laminar flame, Lewis number, turbulent flame

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16814 The Establishment and Application of TRACE/FRAPTRAN Model for Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant

Authors: S. W. Chen, W. K. Lin, J. R. Wang, C. Shih, H. T. Lin, H. C. Chang, W. Y. Li

Abstract:

Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) is a BWR/6 type NPP and located on the northern coast of Taiwan. First, Kuosheng NPP TRACE model were developed in this research. In order to assess the system response of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model, startup tests data were used to evaluate Kuosheng NPP TRACE model. Second, the over pressurization transient analysis of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model was performed. Besides, in order to confirm the mechanical property and integrity of fuel rods, FRAPTRAN analysis was also performed in this study.

Keywords: TRACE, safety analysis, BWR/6, FRAPTRA

Procedia PDF Downloads 537