Search results for: causal logic

Authors: Danni Cheng

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Background: Preclinical and epidemiological studies have reported potential protective effects of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering drugs on head and neck squamous cell cancer (HNSCC) survival, but the causality was not consistent. Genetic variants associated with LDL-C lowering drug targets can predict the effects of their therapeutic inhibition on disease outcomes. Objective: We aimed to evaluate the causal association of genetically proxied cholesterol-lowering drug targets and circulating lipid traits with cancer survival in HNSCC patients stratified by human papillomavirus (HPV) status using two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. Method: Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in gene region of LDL-C lowering drug targets (HMGCR, NPC1L1, CETP, PCSK9, and LDLR) associated with LDL-C levels in genome-wide association study (GWAS) from the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium (GLGC) were used to proxy LDL-C lowering drug action. SNPs proxy circulating lipids (LDL-C, HDL-C, total cholesterol, triglycerides, apoprotein A and apoprotein B) were also derived from the GLGC data. Genetic associations of these SNPs and cancer survivals were derived from 1,120 HPV-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) and 2,570 non-HPV-driven HNSCC patients in VOYAGER program. We estimated the causal associations of LDL-C lowering drugs and circulating lipids with HNSCC survival using the inverse-variance weighted method. Results: Genetically proxied HMGCR inhibition was significantly associated with worse overall survival (OS) in non-HPV-drive HNSCC patients (inverse variance-weighted hazard ratio (HR IVW), 2.64[95%CI,1.28-5.43]; P = 0.01) but better OS in HPV-positive OPSCC patients (HR IVW,0.11[95%CI,0.02-0.56]; P = 0.01). Estimates for NPC1L1 were strongly associated with worse OS in both total HNSCC (HR IVW,4.17[95%CI,1.06-16.36]; P = 0.04) and non-HPV-driven HNSCC patients (HR IVW,7.33[95%CI,1.63-32.97]; P = 0.01). A similar result was found that genetically proxied PSCK9 inhibitors were significantly associated with poor OS in non-HPV-driven HNSCC (HR IVW,1.56[95%CI,1.02 to 2.39]). Conclusion: Genetically proxied long-term HMGCR inhibition was significantly associated with decreased OS in non-HPV-driven HNSCC and increased OS in HPV-positive OPSCC. While genetically proxied NPC1L1 and PCSK9 had associations with worse OS in total and non-HPV-driven HNSCC patients. Further research is needed to understand whether these drugs have consistent associations with head and neck tumor outcomes.

Keywords: Mendelian randomization analysis, head and neck cancer, cancer survival, cholesterol, statin

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Authors: Liubov Evstigneeva

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In this paper an attempt is made to establish causal nexuses between innovation and international trade in Russia. The topicality of this issue is determined by the necessity of choosing policy instruments for economic modernization and transition to innovative development. The vector auto regression (VAR) model and Granger test are applied for the Russian monthly data from 2005 until the second quartile of 2015. Both lagged import and export at the national level cause innovation, the latter starts to stimulate foreign trade since it is a remote lag. In comparison to aggregate data, the results by patent’s categories are more diverse. Importing technologies from foreign countries stimulates patent activity, while innovations created in Russia are only Granger causality for import to Commonwealth of Independent States.

Keywords: export, import, innovation, patents

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Authors: I. Gahlouz, A. Chellil

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The paper concerns the estimation of system components faults by using an unknown inputs observer. To reach this goal, we used the Bond Graph approach to physical modelling. We showed that this graphical tool is allowing the representation of system components faults as unknown inputs within the state representation of the considered physical system. The study of the causal and structural features of the system (controllability, observability, finite structure, and infinite structure) based on the Bond Graph approach was hence fulfilled in order to design an unknown inputs observer which is used for the system component fault estimation.

Keywords: estimation, bond graph, controllability, observability

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Authors: Hasmayadi Abdul Majid, Yuzman Yusoff, Noor Shelida Salleh

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This paper presents the development of a single-ended 38.5 kS/s 10-bit programmable reference SAR ADC which is realized in MIMOS’s 0.35 µm CMOS process. The design uses a resistive DAC, a dynamic comparator with pre-amplifier and a SAR digital logic to create 10 effective bits ADC. A programmable reference circuitry allows the ADC to operate with different input range from 0.6 V to 2.1 V. A single ended 38.5 kS/s 10-bit programmable reference SAR ADC was proposed and implemented in a 0.35 µm CMOS technology and consumed less than 7.5 mW power with a 3 V supply.

Keywords: successive approximation register analog-to-digital converter, SAR ADC, resistive DAC, programmable reference

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Authors: Sanchayan Banerjee, Peter John

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Nudge plus is a modification of the toolkit of behavioural public policy. It incorporates an element of reflection¾the plus¾into the delivery of a nudge, either blended in or made proximate. Nudge plus builds on recent work combining heuristics and deliberation. It may be used to design pro-social interventions that help preserve the autonomy of the agent. The argument turns on seminal work on dual systems, which presents a subtler relationship between fast and slow thinking than commonly assumed in the classic literature in behavioural public policy. We review classic and recent work on dual processes to show that a hybrid is more plausible than the default interventionist or parallel competitive framework. We define nudge plus, set out what reflection could entail, provide examples, outline causal mechanisms, and draw testable implications.

Keywords: nudge, nudge plus, think, dual process theory

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Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

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Regression analysis is a statistical method that is able to describe and predict causal relationships between individuals. Not all relationships have a known curve shape; often, there are relationship patterns that cannot be known in the shape of the curve; besides that, a cause can have an impact on more than one effect, so that between effects can also have a close relationship in it. Regression analysis that can be done to find out the relationship can be brought closer to the semiparametric regression of truncated spline biresponse. The purpose of this study is to examine the function estimator and determine the best model of truncated spline biresponse semiparametric regression. The results of the secondary data study showed that the best model with the highest order of quadratic and a maximum of two knots with a Goodness of fit value in the form of Adjusted R2 of 88.5%.

Keywords: biresponse, farmer attachment, farmer loyalty, truncated spline

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Authors: Jihye Jeon

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This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research modeling were discussed.

Keywords: multiple regression, path analysis, structural equation models, statistical modeling, social and psychological phenomenon

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Authors: Purnima Pandit

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Malaria remains one of the world’s most deadly infectious disease and arguably, the greatest menace to modern society in terms of morbidity and mortality. To choose the right treatment and to ensure a quality of life suitable for a specific patient condition, early and accurate diagnosis of malaria is essential. It reduces transmission of disease and prevents deaths. Our work focuses on designing an efficient, accurate fuzzy inference system for malaria diagnosis.

Keywords: fuzzy inference system, fuzzy logic, malaria disease, triangular fuzzy number

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Authors: Sumohon Matilal, Neveen Abdelrehim

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The purpose of this study is to examine the way households manage the risks of civil war, using the calculative practices of accounting as a lens. As is the case with other social phenomena, accounting serves as a conduit for attributing values and rationales to crisis and in the process makes it visible and calculable. Our focus, in particular, is on the dialogue facilitated by the numerical logic of accounting between the householder and a crisis scenario, such as civil war. In other words, we seek to study how the risk of war is rationalized through household budgets, income and expenditure statements etc. and how such accounting constructs in turn shape attitudes toward earnings and spending in a wartime economy. The existing literature on war and accounting demonstrates how an accounting logic can have potentially destabilising consequences and how it is used to legitimise war. However, very few scholars have looked at the way accounting constructs are used to internalise the effects of war in an average household and the behavioural consequences that arise from such accounting. Relatedly, scholars studying household accounting have mostly focussed on the links between gender and hierarchy in relation to managing the financial affairs. Few have focused on the role of household accounts in a crisis scenario. This study intends to fill this gap. We draw upon Egypt, a country in the middle of civil war since 2011 for our purpose. We intend to carry out 15-20 semi-structured interviews with middle income households in Cairo that maintain some form of accounts to study the following issues: 1. How do people internalise the risks of civil war? What kind of accounting constructs do they use (this may take the form of simple budgets, income-expenditure notes/statements on a periodic basis, spreadsheets etc.) 2. How has civil war affected household expenditure? Are people spending more/less than before? 3. How has civil war affected household income? Are people finding it difficult/easy to survive on the pre-war income? 4. How is such accounting affecting household behaviour towards earnings and expenditure? Are families prioritising expenditure on necessities alone? Are they refraining from indulging in luxuries? Are family members doing two or three jobs to cope with difficult times? Are families increasingly turning toward borrowing? Is credit available? From whom?

Keywords: risk, accounting, war, crisis

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Authors: Izadi Banafsheh, Sedaghat Reza

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Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) of machinery are a key recent issue concerning the automotive industry. It has always been a debated question what order or priority should be adopted for the MRO of machinery. This study attempts to examine several criteria including process sensitivity, average time between machine failures, average duration of repair, availability of parts, availability of maintenance personnel and workload through a literature review and experts survey so as to determine the condition of the machine. According to the mentioned criteria, the machinery were ranked in four modes below: A) Need for inspection, B) Need for minor repair, C) Need for part replacement, and D) Need for major repair. The Fuzzy AHP was employed to determine the weighting of criteria. At the end, the obtained weights were ranked through the AHP for each criterion, three groups were specified: shaving machines, assembly and painting in four modes. The statistical population comprises the elite in the Iranian automotive industry at IKCO covering operation managers, CEOs and maintenance professionals who are highly specialized in MRO and perfectly knowledgeable in how the machinery function. The information required for this study were collected from both desk research and field review, which eventually led to construction of a questionnaire handed out to the sample respondents in order to collect information on the subject matter. The results of the AHP for weighting the criteria revealed that the availability of maintenance personnel was the top priority at coefficient of 0.206, while the process sensitivity took the last priority at coefficient of 0.066. Furthermore, the results of TOPSIS for prioritizing the IKCO machinery suggested that at the mode where there is need for inspection, the assembly machines took the top priority while paining machines took the third priority. As for the mode where there is need for minor repairs, the assembly machines took the top priority while the third priority belonged to the shaving machines. As for the mode where there is need for parts replacement, the assembly machines took the top priority while the third belonged to the paining machinery. Finally, as for the mode where there is need for major repair, the assembly machines took the top priority while the third belonged to the paining machinery.

Keywords: maintenance, repair, overhaul, MRO, prioritization of machinery, fuzzy logic, AHP, TOPSIS

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Authors: Mosses E. Lufuke

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This paper attempted to investigate whether there is Granger-causality running from trade to environment as evidenced in the changing climatic condition and land degradation. Using Tanzania as the reference, VAR-Granger-causality test was employed to rationalize the conundrum of causal-effect relationship between trade and environment. The changing climatic condition, as the proxy of both nitrous oxide emissions (in thousand metric tons of CO₂ equivalent) and land degradation measured by the size of arable land were tested against trade using both exports and imports variables. The result indicated that neither of the trade variables Granger-cause the variability on gas emissions and arable land size. This suggests the possibility that all trade concerns in relation to environment to have been internalized in domestic policies to offset any likely negative consequence.

Keywords: environment, growth, impact, trade

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Authors: Laura Southgate

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The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as well as much of the scholarship on the organisation, celebrates its ability to uphold the principle of regional autonomy, understood as upholding the norm of non-intervention by external powers in regional affairs. Yet, in practice, this has been repeatedly violated. This dichotomy between rhetoric and practice suggests an interesting avenue for further study. The East Timor crisis (1975-1999) has been selected as a case-study to test the dynamics of ASEAN state resistance to sovereignty violation in two distinct timeframes: Indonesia’s initial invasion of the territory in 1975, and the ensuing humanitarian crisis in 1999 which resulted in a UN-mandated, Australian-led peacekeeping intervention force. These time-periods demonstrate variation on the dependent variable. It is necessary to observe covariation in order to derive observations in support of a causal theory. To establish covariation, my independent variable is therefore a continuous variable characterised by variation in convergence of interest. Change of this variable should change the value of the dependent variable, thus establishing causal direction. This paper investigates the history of ASEAN’s relationship to the norm of non-intervention. It offers an alternative understanding of ASEAN’s history, written in terms of the relationship between a key ASEAN state, which I call a ‘vanguard state’, and selected external powers. This paper will consider when ASEAN resistance to sovereignty violation has succeeded, and when it has failed. It will contend that variation in outcomes associated with vanguard state resistance to sovereignty violation can be best explained by levels of interest convergence between the ASEAN vanguard state and designated external actors. Evidence will be provided to support the hypothesis that in 1999, ASEAN’s failure to resist violations to the sovereignty of Indonesia was a consequence of low interest convergence between Indonesia and the external powers. Conversely, in 1975, ASEAN’s ability to resist violations to the sovereignty of Indonesia was a consequence of high interest convergence between Indonesia and the external powers. As the vanguard state, Indonesia was able to apply pressure on the ASEAN states and obtain unanimous support for Indonesia’s East Timor policy in 1975 and 1999. However, the key factor explaining the variance in outcomes in both time periods resides in the critical role played by external actors. This view represents a serious challenge to much of the existing scholarship that emphasises ASEAN’s ability to defend regional autonomy. As these cases attempt to show, ASEAN autonomy is much more contingent than portrayed in the existing literature.

Keywords: ASEAN, east timor, intervention, sovereignty

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Authors: Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

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Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis tool for causal inference in observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned. Thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables, the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect utilizing the stratification of the PS method. In this study, we will develop a new methodology to improve the efficiency of the PS analysis through stratification and simulation study. We will also explore the property of empirical distribution of average treatment effect theoretically, including asymptotic distribution, variance estimation and 95% confident Intervals.

Keywords: propensity score, stratification, emprical distribution, average treatment effect

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Authors: Ayu Diar Sari, Sidharta Utama

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The main objective of this study is to examine the empirical association among strategic corporate social responsibility (Strategic CSR), corporate governance (CG), and firm performance by investigating their causal effects. In order to get the comprehensive result, this study uses CSR variables which consist of Strategic CSR, Non-Strategic CSR and CSR as a whole. Exerting the two stage least square (2SLS) method, the result showed that CG mechanism positively influences CSR, Non-Strategic CSR, and firm performance (both ROA and PBV). CSR and Non-Strategic CSR positively influence ROA. Meanwhile CSR, Strategic and Non-Strategic CSR positively influence PBV. Firm’s Strategic CSR engagement plays a significantly positive role in enhancing PBV. The results supported the social impact hypothesis, agency theory, and conflict resolution theory.

Keywords: corporate financial performance, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, strategic corporate social responsibility

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Authors: Nathan Garcia

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The polarizing dialogue of contemporary political America results from core philosophical differences. But these differences are beyond ideological and reach metaphysical distinction. Good intellectual historians have theorized that fundamental concepts such as freedom, God, and nature have been sterilized of their intellectual vigor. They are partially correct. 19th-century pragmatist Charles Sanders Peirce offers a penetrating philosophy which can yield greater insight into the contemporary political divide. Peirce argues that metaphysical and ethical issues are derivative of operational logic. His triadic logical structure and ensuing metaphysical principles constructed therefrom is contemporaneously applicable for three reasons. First, Peirce’s logic aptly scrutinizes the logical processes of liberal and conservative mindsets. Each group arrives at a cosmological root metaphor (abduction), resulting in a contemporary assessment (deduction), ultimately prompting attempts to verify the original abduction (induction). Peirce’s system demonstrates that liberal citizens develop a cosmological root metaphor in the concept of fairness (abduction), resulting in a contemporary assessment of, for example, underrepresented communities being unfairly preyed upon (deduction), thereby inciting anger toward traditional socio-political structures suspected of purposefully destabilizing minority communities (induction). Similarly, conservative citizens develop a cosmological root metaphor in the concept of freedom (abduction), resulting in a contemporary assessment of, for example, liberal citizens advocating an expansion of governmental powers (deduction), thereby inciting anger towards liberal communities suspected of attacking freedoms of ordinary Americans in a bid to empower their interests through the government (induction). The value of this triadic assessment is the categorization of distinct types of inferential logic by their purpose and boundaries. Only deductive claims can be concretely proven, while abductive claims are merely preliminary hypotheses, and inductive claims are accountable to interdisciplinary oversight. Liberals and conservative logical processes preclude constructive dialogue because of (a) an unshared abductive framework, and (b) misunderstanding the rules and responsibilities of their types of claims. Second, Peircean metaphysical principles offer a greater summary of the contemporaneously divisive political climate. His insights can weed through the partisan theorizing to unravel the underlying philosophical problems. Corrosive nominalistic and essentialistic presuppositions weaken the ability to share experiences and communicate effectively, both requisite for any promising constructive dialogue. Peirce’s pragmatist system can expose and evade fallacious thinking in pursuit of a refreshing alternative framework. Finally, Peirce’s metaphysical foundation enables a logically coherent, scientifically informed orthopraxis well-suited for American dialogue. His logical structure necessitates radically different anthropology conducive to shared experiences and dialogue within a dynamic, cultural continuum. Pierce’s fallibilism and sensitivity to religious sentiment successfully navigate between liberal and conservative values. In sum, he provides a normative paradigm for intranational dialogue that privileges individual experience and values morally defensible notions of freedom, God, and nature. Utilizing Peirce’s thought will yield fruitful analysis and offers a promising philosophical alternative for framing and engaging in contemporary American political discourse.

Keywords: Charles s. Peirce, american politics, logic, pragmatism

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang

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This study focuses on early adolescent externalizing behavioral problems which specifically concentrate on rule breaking behavior and aggressive behavior using the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). The purpose was to analyze the relationships between the externalizing behavioral problems and relevant background variables such as sports activities, hobbies, chores and the number of close friends. The stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 1975 participants. The results indicated that several background variables as predictors could significantly predict rule breaking behavior and aggressive behavior. Further, a hierarchical modeling method was used to explore the causal relations among background variables, breaking behavior variables and aggressive behavior variables.

Keywords: aggressive behavior, breaking behavior, early adolescence, externalizing problem

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Authors: Ankur Chauhan, Amol Singh

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The increasing human resource has led to the rapid increment in the generation of healthcare waste across the world. Since, this waste consists of the infectious and hazardous components emerged from the patient care activities in different healthcare facilities; therefore, its proper management becomes vital for mitigating its negative impact on society and environment. The present research work focuses on the identification of the key success factors for developing a successful healthcare waste management plan. In addition, the key success factors have been studied by developing a causal diagram with the help of a decision making trial and evaluation (DEMATEL) approach. The findings of the study would help in the filtration of dominant key success factors which would further help in making a comparative assessment of the waste management plan of different hospitals.

Keywords: healthcare waste disposal, environment and society, multi-criteria decision making, DEMATEL

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: Nicolas M. Beleski, Gustavo A. G. Lugo

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Robotic agents are taking more and increasingly important roles in society. In order to make these robots and agents more autonomous and efficient, their systems have grown to be considerably complex and convoluted. This growth in complexity has led recent researchers to investigate forms to explain the AI behavior behind these systems in search for more trustworthy interactions. A current problem in explainable AI is the inner workings with the logic inference process and how to conduct a sensibility analysis of the process of valuation and alteration of beliefs. In a social HRI (human-robot interaction) setup, theory of mind is crucial to ease the intentionality gap and to achieve that we should be able to infer over observed human behaviors, such as cases of cognitive dissonance. One specific case inspired in human cognition is the role emotions play on our belief system and the effects caused when observed behavior does not match the expected outcome. In such scenarios emotions can make a person wrongly assume the antecedent P for an observed consequent Q, and as a result, incorrectly assert that P is true. This form of cognitive dissonance where an unproven cause is taken as truth induces changes in the belief base which can directly affect future decisions and actions. If we aim to be inspired by human thoughts in order to apply levels of theory of mind to these artificial agents, we must find the conditions to replicate these observable cognitive mechanisms. To achieve this, a computational architecture is proposed to model the modulation effect emotions have on the belief system and how it affects logic inference process and consequently the decision making of an agent. To validate the model, an experiment based on the prisoner's dilemma is currently under development. The hypothesis to be tested involves two main points: how emotions, modeled as internal argument strength modulators, can alter inference outcomes, and how can explainable outcomes be produced under specific forms of cognitive dissonance.

Keywords: cognitive architecture, cognitive dissonance, explainable ai, sensitivity analysis, theory of mind

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Authors: Abdulmalek Ahmed

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Formation pressure is the main function that affects drilling operation economically and efficiently. Knowing the pore pressure and the parameters that affect it will help to reduce the cost of drilling process. Many empirical models reported in the literature were used to calculate the formation pressure based on different parameters. Some of these models used only drilling parameters to estimate pore pressure. Other models predicted the formation pressure based on log data. All of these models required different trends such as normal or abnormal to predict the pore pressure. Few researchers applied artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to predict the formation pressure by only one method or a maximum of two methods of AI. The objective of this research is to predict the pore pressure based on both drilling parameters and log data namely; weight on bit, rotary speed, rate of penetration, mud weight, bulk density, porosity and delta sonic time. A real field data is used to predict the formation pressure using five different artificial intelligence (AI) methods such as; artificial neural networks (ANN), radial basis function (RBF), fuzzy logic (FL), support vector machine (SVM) and functional networks (FN). All AI tools were compared with different empirical models. AI methods estimated the formation pressure by a high accuracy (high correlation coefficient and low average absolute percentage error) and outperformed all previous. The advantage of the new technique is its simplicity, which represented from its estimation of pore pressure without the need of different trends as compared to other models which require a two different trend (normal or abnormal pressure). Moreover, by comparing the AI tools with each other, the results indicate that SVM has the advantage of pore pressure prediction by its fast processing speed and high performance (a high correlation coefficient of 0.997 and a low average absolute percentage error of 0.14%). In the end, a new empirical correlation for formation pressure was developed using ANN method that can estimate pore pressure with a high precision (correlation coefficient of 0.998 and average absolute percentage error of 0.17%).

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Formation pressure, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Fuzzy Logic (FL), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Functional Networks (FN), Radial Basis Function (RBF)

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Authors: Louk Aourelien Andrianos, Edward Dommen, Athena Peralta

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Greed, as epitomized by overconsumption of natural resources, is at the root of ecological destruction and unsustainability of modern societies. Presently economies rely on unrestricted structural greed which fuels unlimited economic growth, overconsumption, and individualistic competitive behavior. Structural greed undermines the life support system on earth and threatens ecological integrity, social justice and peace. The World Council of Churches (WCC) has developed a program on ecological and economic justice (EEJ) with the aim to promote an economy of life where the economy is embedded in society and society in ecology. This paper aims at analyzing and assessing the economy of life (EcoLife) by offering an empirical tool to measure and monitor the root causes and effects of unsustainability resulting from human greed on global, national, institutional and individual levels. This holistic approach is based on the integrity of ecology and economy in a society founded on justice. The paper will discuss critical questions such as ‘what is an economy of life’ and ‘how to measure and control it from the effect of greed’. A model called GLIMS, which stands for Greed Lines and Indices Measurement System is used to clarify the concept of greed and help measuring the economy of life index by fuzzy logic reasoning. The inputs of the model are from statistical indicators of natural resources consumption, financial realities, economic performance, social welfare and ethical and political facts. The outputs are concrete measures of three primary indices of ecological, economic and socio-political greed (ECOL-GI, ECON-GI, SOCI-GI) and one overall multidimensional economy of life index (EcoLife-I). EcoLife measurement aims to build awareness of an economy life and to address the effects of greed in systemic and structural aspects. It is a tool for ethical diagnosis and policy making.

Keywords: greed line, sustainability indicators, fuzzy logic, eco-justice, World Council of Churches (WCC)

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Authors: Chiung-Ju Huang

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This study utilizes a frequency domain approach over the period of 1996 to 2013 to examine the causal relationship between governance and economic growth in ten Asian countries, which have different levels of democracy; classified as “Free”, “Partly Free”, and “Not Free” countries. The empirical results show that there is no Granger causality running from governance to economic growth in “Not Free” countries and “Partly Free” countries with the exception of Singapore. As for “Free” countries such as South Korea and Taiwan, there is a one-way causality running from governance to economic growth. The findings of this study indicate that policy makers in South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore could use governance index to improve their predictions of the future economic growth.

Keywords: economic growth, frequency domain, governance, granger causality

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Authors: Valentin P. Velikov

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Automatic program generation saves time, human resources, and allows receiving syntactically clear and logically correct modules. The 4-th generation programming languages are related to drawing the data and the processes of the subject area, as well as, to obtain a frame of the respective information system. The application can be separated in interface and business logic. That means, for an interactive generation of the needed system to be used an already existing toolkit or to be created a new one.

Keywords: computer science, graphical user interface, user dialog interface, dialog frames, data modeling, subject area modeling

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Authors: Jaime E. Fernandez, Pablo J. Valverde

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This paper presents a methodological approach that aims to contrast/validate theoretical results from a corruption network game through probabilistic analysis of simulated microdata using Bayesian Networks (BNs). The research develops a public corruption model in a game theory framework. Theoretical results suggest a series of 'optimal settings' of model's exogenous parameters that boost the emergence of corruption. The paper contrasts these outcomes with probabilistic inference results based on BNs adjusted over simulated microdata. Principal findings indicate that probabilistic reasoning based on BNs significantly improves parameter specification and causal analysis in a public corruption game.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, probabilistic reasoning, public corruption, theoretical games

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Authors: Katarina Rogulj, Ivana Racetin, Jelena Kilic

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In this study, the fuzzy logic approach (FLA) was developed for construction project management (CPM) under uncertainty and duality. The focus was on decision making in selecting the type of the glass facade for a residential-commercial building in the main design. The adoption of fuzzy sets was capable of reflecting construction managers’ reliability level over subjective judgments, and thus the robustness of the system can be achieved. An α-cuts method was utilized for discretizing the fuzzy sets in FLA. This method can communicate all uncertain information in the optimization process, taking into account the values of this information. Furthermore, FLA provides in-depth analyses of diverse policy scenarios that are related to various levels of economic aspects when it comes to the construction projects' valid decision making. The developed approach is applied to CPM to demonstrate its applicability. Analyzing the materials of glass facades, variants were defined. The development of the FLA for the CPM included relevant construction projec'ts stakeholders that were involved in the criteria definition to evaluate each variant. Using fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Method (DEMATEL) comparison of the glass facade was conducted. This way, a rank, according to the priorities for inclusion into the main design, of variants is obtained. The concept was tested on a residential-commercial building in the city of Rijeka, Croatia. The newly developed methodology was then compared with the existing one. The aim of the research was to define an approach that will improve current judgments and decisions when it comes to the material selection of buildings facade as one of the most important architectural and engineering tasks in the main design. The advantage of the new methodology compared to the old one is that it includes the subjective side of the managers’ decisions, as an inevitable factor in each decision making. The proposed approach can help construction projects managers to identify the desired type of glass facade according to their preference and practical conditions, as well as facilitate in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between economic efficiency and architectural design.

Keywords: construction projects management, DEMATEL, fuzzy logic approach, glass façade selection

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Authors: Klaus Peter Scherer, Daniel Knöll, Constantin Rieder

Abstract:

Problem and Purpose: Intelligent systems are available and helpful to support the human being decision process, especially when complex surgical eye interventions are necessary and must be performed. Normally, such a decision support system consists of a knowledge-based module, which is responsible for the real assistance power, given by an explanation and logical reasoning processes. The interview based acquisition and generation of the complex knowledge itself is very crucial, because there are different correlations between the complex parameters. So, in this project (semi)automated self-learning methods are researched and developed for an enhancement of the quality of such a decision support system. Methods: For ophthalmic data sets of real patients in a hospital, advanced data mining procedures seem to be very helpful. Especially subgroup analysis methods are developed, extended and used to analyze and find out the correlations and conditional dependencies between the structured patient data. After finding causal dependencies, a ranking must be performed for the generation of rule-based representations. For this, anonymous patient data are transformed into a special machine language format. The imported data are used as input for algorithms of conditioned probability methods to calculate the parameter distributions concerning a special given goal parameter. Results: In the field of knowledge discovery advanced methods and applications could be performed to produce operation and patient related correlations. So, new knowledge was generated by finding causal relations between the operational equipment, the medical instances and patient specific history by a dependency ranking process. After transformation in association rules logically based representations were available for the clinical experts to evaluate the new knowledge. The structured data sets take account of about 80 parameters as special characteristic features per patient. For different extended patient groups (100, 300, 500), as well one target value as well multi-target values were set for the subgroup analysis. So the newly generated hypotheses could be interpreted regarding the dependency or independency of patient number. Conclusions: The aim and the advantage of such a semi-automatically self-learning process are the extensions of the knowledge base by finding new parameter correlations. The discovered knowledge is transformed into association rules and serves as rule-based representation of the knowledge in the knowledge base. Even more, than one goal parameter of interest can be considered by the semi-automated learning process. With ranking procedures, the most strong premises and also conjunctive associated conditions can be found to conclude the interested goal parameter. So the knowledge, hidden in structured tables or lists can be extracted as rule-based representation. This is a real assistance power for the communication with the clinical experts.

Keywords: an expert system, knowledge-based support, ophthalmic decision support, self-learning methods

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Authors: M. Lloret-Climent, J. Nescolarde-Selva

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model to determine invariant sets, set covering, orbits and, in particular, attractors in the set of tourism variables. Analysis was carried out based on a pre-designed algorithm and applying our interpretation of chaos theory developed in the context of General Systems Theory. This article sets out the causal relationships associated with tourist flows in order to enable the formulation of appropriate strategies. Our results can be applied to numerous cases. For example, in the analysis of tourist flows, these findings can be used to determine whether the behaviour of certain groups affects that of other groups and to analyse tourist behaviour in terms of the most relevant variables. Unlike statistical analyses that merely provide information on current data, our method uses orbit analysis to forecast, if attractors are found, the behaviour of tourist variables in the immediate future.

Keywords: attractor, invariant set, tourist flows, orbits, social responsibility, tourism, tourist variables

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Authors: Mohsen Varzande

Abstract:

Translators’ professional and academic characteristics may directly influence their translation quality. The present study aimed at investigating whether translators’ degree in translation and years of professional experience predict their translation quality. Following a causal-comparative study, a sample of one hundred professional translators was selected using purposive sampling method. The participants were divided into two groups each containing individuals with and without a degree in translation, respectively. The participants were asked to translate a paragraph to assess their translation quality. For data analysis, appropriate statistical procedures including correlation and regression were used. Results showed that both degree in translation and years of professional experience significantly predict translation quality. Also, the interaction of translators’ years of professional experience and degree in translation significantly affect their translation quality. An implication could be that besides providing translators with academic knowledge and theories, practical training in translation is necessary as a prerequisite for a competent translator.

Keywords: translation, degree in translation, translation quality, professional experience

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Authors: Samuel John, S. Sharanya

Abstract:

Automation has become an important part of our life. It has been used to control home entertainment systems, changing the ambience of rooms for different events etc. One of the main parameters to control in a smart home is the atmospheric comfort. Atmospheric comfort mainly includes temperature and relative humidity. In homes, the desired temperature of different rooms varies from 20 °C to 25 °C and relative humidity is around 50%. However, it varies widely. Hence, automated measurement of these parameters to ensure comfort assumes significance. To achieve this, a fuzzy logic controller using Arduino was developed using MATLAB. Arduino is an open source hardware consisting of a 24 pin ATMEGA chip (atmega328), 14 digital input /output pins and an inbuilt ADC. It runs on 5v and 3.3v power supported by a board voltage regulator. Some of the digital pins in Aruduino provide PWM (pulse width modulation) signals, which can be used in different applications. The Arduino platform provides an integrated development environment, which includes support for c, c++ and java programming languages. In the present work, soft sensor was introduced in this system that can indirectly measure temperature and humidity and can be used for processing several measurements these to ensure comfort. The Sugeno method (output variables are functions or singleton/constant, more suitable for implementing on microcontrollers) was used in the soft sensor in MATLAB and then interfaced to the Arduino, which is again interfaced to the temperature and humidity sensor DHT11. The temperature-humidity sensor DHT11 acts as the sensing element in this system. Further, a capacitive humidity sensor and a thermistor were also used to support the measurement of temperature and relative humidity of the surrounding to provide a digital signal on the data pin. The comfort sensor developed was able to measure temperature and relative humidity correctly. The comfort percentage was calculated and accordingly the temperature in the room was controlled. This system was placed in different rooms of the house to ensure that it modifies the comfort values depending on temperature and relative humidity of the environment. Compared to the existing comfort control sensors, this system was found to provide an accurate comfort percentage. Depending on the comfort percentage, the air conditioners and the coolers in the room were controlled. The main highlight of the project is its cost efficiency.

Keywords: arduino, DHT11, soft sensor, sugeno

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Authors: Khalid Sekkat, Fredj Fhima, Ridha Nouira

Abstract:

This paper focuses on three main limitations of the literature regarding the impact of corruption on democracy. These limitations relate to the distinction between causality and correlation, the components of democracy underlying the impact and the shape of the relationship between corruption and democracy. The study uses recent developments in panel data causality econometrics, breaks democracy down into different components, and examines the types of the relationship. The results show that Control of Corruption leads to a higher quality of democracy. Regarding the estimated coefficients of the components of democracy, they are significant at the 1% level, and their signs and levels are in accordance with expectations except in a few cases. Overall, the results add to the literature in three respects: i). corruption has a causal effect on democracy and, hence, single equation estimation may pose a problem, ii) the assumption of the linearity of the relationships between control of corruption and democracy is also possibly problematic, and iii) the channels of transmission of the effects of corruption on democracy can be diverse. Disentangling them is useful from a policy perspective.

Keywords: corruption, governance, causality, threshold models

Procedia PDF Downloads 46