Search results for: conditional random fields

Authors: Mahmoud I. Syam

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Stratified double median ranked set sampling (SDMRSS) method is suggested for estimating the population mean. The SDMRSS is compared with the simple random sampling (SRS), stratified simple random sampling (SSRS), and stratified ranked set sampling (SRSS). It is shown that SDMRSS estimator is an unbiased of the population mean and more efficient than SRS, SSRS, and SRSS. Also, by SDMRSS, we can increase the efficiency of mean estimator for specific value of the sample size. SDMRSS is applied on real life examples, and the results of the example agreed the theoretical results.

Keywords: efficiency, double ranked set sampling, median ranked set sampling, ranked set sampling, stratified

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Authors: Busra Gulnihan Dascıoglu, Ozalp Vayvay, Zeynep Tugce Kalender

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Humanitarian supply chain management has gain popularity in recent years in research fields. The aim of this paper is to review the literature on humanitarian operations and crisis/disaster management from 2010 to latest researches in order to identify the current research and to provide direction for future research in this growing field. Researches are classified considering the research publication year, research fields. Articles from humanitarian supply chain management were reviewed, keywords were identified within a disaster management lifecycle framework. Research gaps are identified for future research areas.

Keywords: crisis, disaster, humanitarian supply chain management, relief operations

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Authors: Faranak Omidian

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The aim of this research was to examine the quality of education service at master's level in the Islamic Azad University of Dezful. In terms of objective, this is an applied research and in regard to methodology, it is a descriptive analytical research. The statistical population included all students of master's degree in the Islamic Azad University of Dezful. The sample size was determined using stratified random sampling method in different fields of study. The research questionnaire is the translated version of standardized Abdullah's HEdPERF 41-item scale which is based on a 5-point Likert scale. In order to determine the validity, the translated questionnaire was given to the professors of educational sciences. The correlation among all questions has been regarded at a value of 0.644. The results showed that the quality of educational service at master's level in this university, based on chi-square goodness of fit test, was equal to 73.36 and its degree of freedom was 2 at a significant level of 0.001, indicating the low desirability of the services. According to Friedman test, academic responsiveness has been reported to be in a higher status than other dimensions with an average rank of 3.94 while accessibility, with an average rank of 2.15, has been in the lowest status from master's students' viewpoint.

Keywords: educational service quality, master's level, Iranian university

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Authors: Brian H. Marsh

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Nitrogen fertility is an important component for optimum potato yield and quality. Best management practices are necessary in regards to N applications to achieve these goals without applying excess N with may contribute to ground water contamination. Eight potato fields in the Southern San Joaquin Valley were sampled for nitrogen inputs and uptake, tuber and vine dry matter and residual soil nitrate-N. The fields had substantial soil nitrate-N prior to the potato crop. Nitrogen fertilizer was applied prior to planting and in irrigation water as needed based on in-season petiole sampling in accordance with published recommendations. Average total nitrogen uptake was 237 kg ha^-1 on 63.5 Mg ha^-1 tuber yield and nitrogen use efficiency was very good at 81 percent. Sixty-nine percent of the plant nitrogen was removed in tubers. Soil nitrate-N increased 14 percent from pre-plant to post-harvest averaged across all fields and was generally situated in the upper soil profile. Irrigation timing and amount applied did not move water into the lower profile except for a single location where nitrate also moved into the lower soil profile. Pre-plant soil analysis is important information to be used. Rotation crops having deeper rooting growth would be able to utilize nitrogen that remained in the soil profile.

Keywords: potato, nitrogen fertilization, irrigation management, leaching potential

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Authors: M. Alkhalidi, S. Neelamani, Z. Al-Zaqah

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This paper investigates the interaction of single and twin offshore rubble mound breakwaters with regular and random water waves through physical modeling to assess their reflection, transmission and energy dissipation characteristics. Various combinations of wave heights and wave periods were utilized in a series of experiments, along with three different water depths. The single and twin permeable breakwater models were both constructed with one layer of rubbles. Both models had the same total volume; however, the single breakwater was of trapezoidal type while the twin breakwaters were of triangular type. Physical modeling experiments were carried out in the wave flume of the coastal engineering laboratory of Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR). Measurements of the six wave probes which were fixed in the two-dimensional wave flume were collected and used to determine the generated incident wave heights, as well as the reflected and transmitted wave heights resulting from the wave-breakwater interaction. The possible factors affecting the wave attenuation efficiency of the breakwater models are the relative water depth (d/L), wave steepness (H/L), relative wave height ((h-d)/Hi), relative height of the breakwater (h/d), and relative clear spacing between the twin breakwaters (S/h). The results indicated that the single and double breakwaters show different responds to the change in their relative height as well as the relative wave height which demonstrates that the effect of the relative water depth on wave reflection, transmission, and energy dissipation is highly influenced by the change in the relative breakwater height, the relative wave height and the relative breakwater spacing. In general, within the range of the relative water depth tested in this study, and under both regular and random waves, it is found that the single breakwater allows for lower wave transmission and shows higher energy dissipation effect than both of the tested twin breakwaters, and hence has the best overall performance.

Keywords: random waves, regular waves, relative water depth, relative wave height, single breakwater, twin breakwater, wave steepness

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Authors: Tetyana Baydyk, Ernst Kussul, Sandra Bonilla Meza

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There are many articles that attempt to establish the role of different facial fragments in face recognition. Various approaches are used to estimate this role. Frequently, authors calculate the entropy corresponding to the fragment. This approach can only give approximate estimation. In this paper, we propose to use a more direct measure of the importance of different fragments for face recognition. We propose to select a recognition method and a face database and experimentally investigate the recognition rate using different fragments of faces. We present two such experiments in the paper. We selected the PCNC neural classifier as a method for face recognition and parts of the LFW (Labeled Faces in the Wild) face database as training and testing sets. The recognition rate of the best experiment is comparable with the recognition rate obtained using the whole face.

Keywords: face recognition, labeled faces in the wild (LFW) database, random local descriptor (RLD), random features

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Authors: N. V. Klassen, A. A. Vasin, A. M. Likhter, K. A. Voronin, A. V. Mariasevskaya, I. M. Shmit’ko

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Regular patterning in mixtures of bio-polymers (chitosan and collagen) and nanoparticles in water suspensions has been found by means of optical microscopy. The patterning was created either by external electrical field of moderate amplitude (200–1000 v/cm) or spontaneously. Simultaneously with the patterning pushing out of water drops mixed with nanoparticles to the external regions was observed. These phenomena are explained by interactions of charged bio-polymers and nanoparticles with external and internal electrical fields as well as with the regions of decreased dielectrical permittivity surrounding nano-objects in water which possesses anomalously high dielectrical permittivity. Electrical charges of opposite signs of the nano-objects induce their mutual attraction whereas dipole moments created around these nano-objects by the electrical fields are pushing these particles to the regions with lower fields. Due to this reason, non-homogeneities of dielectrical permittivity around nano-objects immersed into water suspension induces mutual repulsion of the objects. This spatial decrease of this repulsion with the inter-particle distances is more sharp than that of the Coulomb attraction. So, at longer distances, the attractions are stronger whereas at shorter distances the repulsion prevails. At a certain distance these two forces compensate each other creating the equilibrium state of the mixture of nano-objects with opposite charges. When the groups of positive and negative nano-objects consist from identical particles, quasi-periodical pattern of the suspension is observed like mesoscopic two-dimensional super-crystal. These results can clarify the mechanisms of healing of internal organs with direct or alternative electrical fields.

Keywords: bio-polymers, chitosan, collagen, nanoparticles, Coulomb attraction, polarization repulsion, periodical patterning, electrical low frequency resonances

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Authors: Muhammet Baldan, Emel Timuçin

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Generally, absorption and bioavailability increase if solubility increases; therefore, it is crucial to predict them in drug discovery applications. Molecular descriptors and Molecular properties are traditionally used for the prediction of water solubility. There are various key descriptors that are used for this purpose, namely Drogan Descriptors, Morgan Descriptors, Maccs keys, etc., and each has different prediction capabilities with differentiating successes between different data sets. Another source for the prediction of solubility is structural features; they are commonly used for the prediction of solubility. However, there are little to no studies that combine three or more properties or descriptors for prediction to produce a more powerful prediction model. Unlike available models, we used a combination of those features in a random forest machine learning model for improved solubility prediction to better predict and, therefore, contribute to drug discovery systems.

Keywords: solubility, molecular descriptors, machine learning, random forest

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Authors: Shahram Jamali, Samira Hamed

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One of the open issues in Random Early Detection (RED) algorithm is how to set its parameters to reach high performance for the dynamic conditions of the network. Although original RED uses fixed values for its parameters, this paper follows a model-based approach to upgrade performance of the RED algorithm. It models the routers queue behavior by using the Markov model and uses this model to predict future conditions of the queue. This prediction helps the proposed algorithm to make some tunings over RED's parameters and provide efficiency and better performance. Widespread packet level simulations confirm that the proposed algorithm, called Markov-RED, outperforms RED and FARED in terms of queue stability, bottleneck utilization and dropped packets count.

Keywords: active queue management, RED, Markov model, random early detection algorithm

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Authors: A. A. Vasin, N. V. Klassen, A. M. Likhter

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Water suspensions of in-organic (metals and oxides) and organic nano-objects (chitozan and collagen) were subjected to the treatment of direct and alternative electrical fields. In addition to quasi-periodical spatial patterning resonance-like performance of spatial distributions of these suspensions has been found at low frequencies of alternating electrical field. These resonances are explained as the result of creation of equilibrium states of groups of charged nano-objects with opposite signs of charges at the interparticle distances where the forces of Coulomb attraction are compensated by the repulsion forces induced by relatively negative polarization of hydrated regions surrounding the nanoparticles with respect to pure water. The low frequencies of these resonances are explained by comparatively big distances between the particles and their big masses with t\respect to masses of atoms constituting molecules with high resonance frequencies. These new resonances open a new approach to detailed modeling and understanding of mechanisms of the influence of electrical fields on the functioning of internal organs of living organisms at the level of cells and neurons.

Keywords: bio-polymers, chitosan, collagen, nanoparticles, coulomb attraction, polarization repulsion, periodical patterning, electrical low frequency resonances, transformations

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Authors: Randa M. Mostafa, Y. Moustafa

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During our daily life, we are continuously exposed to the extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields (ELF-EMFs) generated by electric appliances. The possible relation between exposure to (ELF-MFs) and adverse health effects has attracted and passed through long debate sessions. Extremely low frequency is a term used to describe radiation frequencies below 300 Hertz (Hz).It is very important for public health because of the widespread use of electrical power at 50-60 Hz in most countries. This study set out to investigate the impact of chronic exposure of male rats to 50- Hz, 1 mTesla (ELF-EMF) of over periods of 1, 2, and 4 weeks on concentration of serum FSH, LH, and testosterone hormones. 60 male albino rats were divided into 6 groups and were continuously exposed to 50-Hz, 1 m Tesla (ELF-EMF) generated by magnetic field chamber for periods of 1, 2, and 4 weeks. For each experimental point, sham treated group was used as a control. Assay of serum testosterone LH, and FSHwere performed. Serum testosterone showed no significant changes. FSH showed significant increase than sham exposed group after 1 week of field exposure. LH showed significant increase than sham exposed group only after 4 weeks of field exposure. A future detailed molecular studies must be carried out to figure out and may be able to explain the possible interactions between ELF-EMF and hypothalamic-pituitary gonadal axis.

Keywords: extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields, testosterone, follicular stimulating hormone, LH

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Authors: Hui Wang

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Traditional collection building approaches are limited in breadth and scope and are not necessarily suitable for multidisciplinary fields development in the institutes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The increasing of multidisciplinary fields researches require a viable approach to collection development in these libraries. This study uses qualitative and quantitative analysis to assess collection. The quantitative analysis consists of three levels of evaluation, which including realistic demand, potential demand and trend demand analysis. For one institute, three samples were separately selected from the object institute, more than one international top institutes in highly relative research fields and future research hotspots. Each sample contains an appropriate number of papers published in recent five years. Several keywords and the organization names were reasonably combined to search in commercial databases and the institutional repositories. The publishing information and citations in the bibliographies of these papers were selected to build the dataset. One weighted evaluation model and citation analysis were used to calculate the demand intensity index of every journal and book. Principal Investigator selector and database traffic provide a qualitative evidence to describe the demand frequency. The demand intensity, demand frequency and academic committee recommendations were comprehensively considered to recommend collection development. The collection gaps or weaknesses were ascertained by comparing the current collection and the recommend collection. This approach was applied in more than 80 institutes’ libraries in Chinese Academy of Sciences in the past three years. The evaluation results provided an important evidence for collections building in the second year. The latest user survey results showed that the updated collection’s capacity to support research in a multidisciplinary subject area have increased significantly.

Keywords: citation analysis, collection assessment, collection development, quantitative analysis

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Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová

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Complex sensitivity analysis of stresses in a concrete slab of the real type of rigid pavement made from recycled materials is performed. The computational model of the pavement is designed as a spatial (3D) model, is based on a nonlinear variant of the finite element method that respects the structural nonlinearity, enables to model different arrangements of joints, and the entire model can be loaded by the thermal load. Interaction of adjacent slabs in joints and contact of the slab and the subsequent layer are modeled with the help of special contact elements. Four concrete slabs separated by transverse and longitudinal joints and the additional structural layers and soil to the depth of about 3m are modeled. The thickness of individual layers, physical and mechanical properties of materials, characteristics of joints, and the temperature of the upper and lower surface of slabs are supposed to be random variables. The modern simulation technique Updated Latin Hypercube Sampling with 20 simulations is used. For sensitivity analysis the sensitivity coefficient based on the Spearman rank correlation coefficient is utilized. As a result, the estimates of influence of random variability of individual input variables on the random variability of principal stresses s1 and s3 in 53 points on the upper and lower surface of the concrete slabs are obtained.

Keywords: concrete, FEM, pavement, sensitivity, simulation

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Authors: Habibollah Mashhady, Behruz Lotfi, Mohammad Doosti, Moslem Fatollahi

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An exploration of the related literature reveals that all instruction methods aim at training autonomous learners. After the turn of second language pedagogy toward learner-oriented strategies, learners’ needs were more focused. Yet; the historical, social and political aspects of learning were still neglected. The present study investigates the notion of autonomous learning and explains its various facets from a pedagogical point of view. Furthermore; different elements, fields and scopes of autonomous learning will be explored. After exploring different aspects of autonomy, it is postulated that liberatory autonomy is highlighted since it not only covers social autonomy but also reveals learners’ capabilities and human potentials. It is also recommended that learners consider different elements of autonomy such as motivation, knowledge, confidence, and skills.

Keywords: critical pedagogy, social autonomy, academic learning, cultural notions

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Authors: A. A. Hussen, I. N. Jleta

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Micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) accelerometers and gyroscopes are suitable for the inertial navigation system (INS) of many applications due to the low price, small dimensions and light weight. The main disadvantage in a comparison with classic sensors is a worse long term stability. The estimation accuracy is mostly affected by the time-dependent growth of inertial sensor errors, especially the stochastic errors. In order to eliminate negative effect of these random errors, they must be accurately modeled. Where the key is the successful implementation that depends on how well the noise statistics of the inertial sensors is selected. In this paper, the Allan variance technique will be used in modeling the stochastic errors of the inertial sensors. By performing a simple operation on the entire length of data, a characteristic curve is obtained whose inspection provides a systematic characterization of various random errors contained in the inertial-sensor output data.

Keywords: Allan variance, accelerometer, gyroscope, stochastic errors

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Authors: Khobaib Khobaib, Alexander Mikkelsen, Zbigniew Rozynek

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Electric fields have proven useful for inducing droplet deformation and to structure particles adsorbed at droplet interfaces. In this experimental research, direct current electric fields were applied to deform particle-covered droplets made out of silicone oil and immersed in castor oil. The viscosity of the drop and surrounding fluid were changed by external heating. We designed an experimental system in such a way that electric field-induced electrohydrodynamic (EHD) flows were asymmetric and only present on one side of the drop, i.e., the droplet adjoined a washer and adhered to one of the electrodes constituting the sample cell. The study investigated the influence of viscosity on the steady-state deformation magnitude of particle-laden droplets, droplet compression, and relaxation, as well as particle arrangements at drop interfaces. Initially, before the application of an electric field, we changed the viscosity of the fluids by heating the sample cell at different temperatures. The viscosity of the fluids was varied by changing the temperature of the fluids from 25 to 50°C. Under the application of a uniform electric field of strength 290 Vmm⁻¹, electric stress was induced at the drop interface, yielding drop deformation. In our study, we found that by lowering the fluid viscosity, the velocity of the EHD flows was increased, which also increases the deformation of the drop.

Keywords: drop deformation and relaxation, electric field, electrohydrodynamic flow, particle assembly, viscosity

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Authors: Amr Mansour Mohsen, Hesham Ahmed Hassan, Amira M. Idrees

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Document Analysis is an important research field that aims to gather the information by analyzing the data in documents. As one of the important targets for many fields is to understand what people actually want, sentimental analysis field has been one of the vital fields that are tightly related to the document analysis. This research focuses on analyzing text documents to classify each document according to its opinion. The aim of this research is to detect the emotions from text documents based on enriching the lexicon with adapting their content based on semantic patterns extraction. The proposed approach has been presented, and different experiments are applied by different perspectives to reveal the positive impact of the proposed approach on the classification results.

Keywords: document analysis, sentimental analysis, emotion detection, WEKA tool, NRC lexicon

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Authors: Nazakat Ismailzada, Carol Jones

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Tomato drilling moth Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is the main pest of tomato plants in many countries. The larvae of tomato leaves, the stems inside, in the end buds, they opened the gallery in green and ripe fruit. In this way the harmful products can be fed with all parts of the tomato plant can cause damage to 80-100%. Pest harms all above ground parts of the tomato plant. After the seedlings are planted in areas and during blossoming holder traps with tomato moth’s rubber capsule inside should be placed in the area by using five-tomato moth’s feremon per ha. Then there should be carried out observations in the fields in every three days regularly. During the researches, it was showed that in field condition Carogen 20 SC besides high-level biological efficiency also has low ecological load for environment, and should be used against tomato moth in farms. Therefore it was showed that in field condition Carogen 20 SC besides high-level biological efficiency also has low ecological load for environment, and should be used against tomato moth in farms with insecticide expenditure norm 320 qr\ha. In farms should be used plant rotation, plant fields should be plowed on the 25-30 sm depth, before sowing seeds should be proceeded by insecticides. As element of integrated plant protection activities, should be used pheromones trap. In tomato plant fields as an insecticide should be used AGROSAN 240 SC and Carogen 20 SP.

Keywords: lepidoptera, Tuta absoluta, chemical control, integrated pest management

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Authors: Shabnam Najafi, Metin Turkay

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Network design problem (NDP) is used to determine the set of optimal values for certain pre-specified decision variables such as capacity expansion of nodes and links by optimizing various system performance measures including safety, congestion, and accessibility. The designed transportation network should improve objective functions defined for the system by considering the route choice behaviors of network users at the same time. The NDP studies mostly investigated the random demand and route selection constraints separately due to computational challenges. In this work, we consider both random demand and route selection constraints simultaneously. This work presents a nonlinear stochastic model for land use and road network design problem to address the development of different functional zones in urban areas by considering both cost function and air pollution. This model minimizes cost function and air pollution simultaneously with random demand and stochastic route selection constraint that aims to optimize network performance via road capacity expansion. The Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) link impedance function is used to determine the travel time function in each link. We consider a city with origin and destination nodes which can be residential or employment or both. There are set of existing paths between origin-destination (O-D) pairs. Case of increasing employed population is analyzed to determine amount of roads and origin zones simultaneously. Minimizing travel and expansion cost of routes and origin zones in one side and minimizing CO emission in the other side is considered in this analysis at the same time. In this work demand between O-D pairs is random and also the network flow pattern is subject to stochastic user equilibrium, specifically logit route choice model. Considering both demand and route choice, random is more applicable to design urban network programs. Epsilon-constraint is one of the methods to solve both linear and nonlinear multi-objective problems. In this work epsilon-constraint method is used to solve the problem. The problem was solved by keeping first objective (cost function) as the objective function of the problem and second objective as a constraint that should be less than an epsilon, where epsilon is an upper bound of the emission function. The value of epsilon should change from the worst to the best value of the emission function to generate the family of solutions representing Pareto set. A numerical example with 2 origin zones and 2 destination zones and 7 links is solved by GAMS and the set of Pareto points is obtained. There are 15 efficient solutions. According to these solutions as cost function value increases, emission function value decreases and vice versa.

Keywords: epsilon-constraint, multi-objective, network design, stochastic

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Authors: Felicity Aphiwe Mkhongi, Walter Musakwa

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Smallholder crop production is a defining factor in achieving food security, particularly at the household level. However, the number of abandoned arable fields is increasing in communal areas of South Africa. While substantial efforts have been devoted to addressing food insecurity in the country, ownership of arable land has not been supplemented with sustainable food production for households. This paper analyses household food security in the context of deagrarianization in two villages, Ambros (Eastern Cape) and Maramanzhi (Limpopo). Semi-structured questionnaires were administered to acquire both qualitative and quantitative data from 106 heads of households. The IBM SPSS Statistics 28.0 computer program was applied to complete data analysis. From the findings of the study, it was evident that compared to arable fields, a greater proportion of households own home-gardens with an average size of 2100m in Ambros and 3400m in Maramanzhi village. The majority of arable fields were abandoned, particularly in Ambros village. Household food access challenges were measured using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS). This food security indicator revealed that the majority of households were mildly food insecure owing to food shortages emanating from insufficient monthly income and waning household crop production. Food was rated as a very important reason for engaging in cultivation in both villages of the study, but deagrarianization has eroded opportunities for increasing household crop production. Among other possible solutions, this study recommends that the government invest more in agriculture to allow for sustainable strategies that revive abandoned arable land, such as arable fields in communal areas of South Africa, as this could increase food production for households.

Keywords: cultivation, deagrarianization, food security, rural households, smallholder farmers

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Authors: Wenjie Qin, Kewei Lv

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In 1996, Boneh and Venkatesan proposed the Hidden Number Problem (HNP) and proved the most significant bits (MSB) of computational Diffie-Hellman key exchange scheme and related schemes are unpredictable bits. They also gave a method which is a lattice rounding technique to solve HNP in non-uniform model. In this paper, we put forward a new concept that is Schnorr-MSB-HNP. We also reduce the problem of solving Schnorr signature private key with a few consecutive most significant bits of random nonce (used at each signature generation) to Schnorr-MSB-HNP, then we use the rounding technique to solve the Schnorr-MSB-HNP. We have come to the conclusion that if there is a ‘miraculous box’ which inputs the random nonce and outputs 2loglogq (q is a prime number) most significant bits of nonce, the signature private key will be obtained by choosing 2logq signature messages randomly. Thus we get an attack on the Schnorr signature private key.

Keywords: rounding technique, most significant bits, Schnorr signature algorithm, nonce, Schnorr-MSB-HNP

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Authors: Mohammed El-Arbi Khalfallah, Mohamed Lakhdar Hadji

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Managing and controlling risk is a topic research in the world of finance. Before a risky situation, the stakeholders need to do comparison according to the positions and actions, and financial institutions must take measures of a particular market risk and credit. In this work, we study a model of risk measure in finance: Value at Risk (VaR), which is a new tool for measuring an entity's exposure risk. We explain the concept of value at risk, your average, tail, and describe the three methods for computing: Parametric method, Historical method, and numerical method of Monte Carlo. Finally, we briefly describe advantages and disadvantages of the three methods for computing value at risk.

Keywords: average value at risk, conditional value at risk, tail value at risk, value at risk

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Authors: Neha Ahirwar

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In the contemporary digital era, the rise of credit card fraud poses a significant threat to both financial institutions and consumers. As fraudulent activities become more sophisticated, there is an escalating demand for robust and effective fraud detection mechanisms. Advanced machine learning algorithms have become crucial tools in addressing this challenge. This paper conducts a thorough examination of the design and evaluation of a credit card fraud detection system, utilizing four prominent machine learning algorithms: random forest, logistic regression, decision tree, and XGBoost. The surge in digital transactions has opened avenues for fraudsters to exploit vulnerabilities within payment systems. Consequently, there is an urgent need for proactive and adaptable fraud detection systems. This study addresses this imperative by exploring the efficacy of machine learning algorithms in identifying fraudulent credit card transactions. The selection of random forest, logistic regression, decision tree, and XGBoost for scrutiny in this study is based on their documented effectiveness in diverse domains, particularly in credit card fraud detection. These algorithms are renowned for their capability to model intricate patterns and provide accurate predictions. Each algorithm is implemented and evaluated for its performance in a controlled environment, utilizing a diverse dataset comprising both genuine and fraudulent credit card transactions.

Keywords: efficient credit card fraud detection, random forest, logistic regression, XGBoost, decision tree

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

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Recurrent infant diarrhea is studied using daily data collected in Salvador, Brazil over one year and three months. A logistic regression model is fitted instead of Aalen's additive model using the same covariates that were used in the analysis with the additive model. The model gives reasonably similar results to that using additive regression model. In addition, the problem with the estimated conditional probabilities not being constrained between zero and one in additive model is solved here. Also martingale residuals that have been used to judge the goodness of fit for the additive model are shown to be useful for judging the goodness of fit of the logistic model.

Keywords: additive model, cumulative probabilities, infant diarrhoea, recurrent event

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Authors: Kailash C. Madan

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We study the steady state behaviour of a batch arrival single server queue in which the first service with general service times is compulsory and the second service with general service times is optional. We term such a two phase service as generalized Coxian-2 service. Just after completion of a service the server must take a vacation of random length of time with general vacation times. We obtain steady state probability generating functions for the queue size as well as the steady state mean queue size at a random epoch of time in explicit and closed forms. Some particular cases of interest including some known results have been derived.

Keywords: batch arrivals, compound Poisson process, generalized Coxian-2 service, steady state

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Authors: Aya Salama

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Digital Twin is an emerging research topic that attracted researchers in the last decade. It is used in many fields, such as smart manufacturing and smart healthcare because it saves time and money. It is usually related to other technologies such as Data Mining, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning. However, Human digital twin (HDT), in specific, is still a novel idea that still needs to prove its feasibility. HDT expands the idea of Digital Twin to human beings, which are living beings and different from the inanimate physical entities. The goal of this research was to create a Human digital twin that is responsible for real-time human replies automation by simulating human behavior. For this reason, clustering, supervised classification, topic extraction, and sentiment analysis were studied in this paper. The feasibility of the HDT for personal replies generation on social messaging applications was proved in this work. The overall accuracy of the proposed approach in this paper was 63% which is a very promising result that can open the way for researchers to expand the idea of HDT. This was achieved by using Random Forest for clustering the question data base and matching new questions. K-nearest neighbor was also applied for sentiment analysis.

Keywords: human digital twin, sentiment analysis, topic extraction, supervised machine learning, unsupervised machine learning, classification, clustering

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Authors: Yaping Zhao, Yimin Zhang

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In the present paper, the stationary random vibration of a uniform cantilever beam is investigated. Two types of damping mechanism, i.e. the external and internal viscous dampings, are taken into account simultaneously. The excitation form is the support motion, and it is ideal white. Because two type of damping mechanism are considered concurrently, the product of the modal damping ratio and the natural frequency is not a constant anymore. As a result, the infinite definite integral encountered in the process of computing the mean square response is more complex than that in the existing literature. One signal progress of this work is to have calculated these definite integrals accurately. The precise solution of the mean square response is thus obtained in the infinite series form finally. Numerical examples are supplied and the numerical outcomes acquired confirm the validity of the theoretical analyses.

Keywords: random vibration, cantilever beam, mean square response, white noise

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Authors: Basma Yassa

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Evidence on cash transfers’ effectiveness in mitigating macro and idiosyncratic shocks’ impacts has been mixed and is mostly concentrated in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia with very limited evidence from the MENA region. Yet conditional cash transfers schemes have been continually used, especially in Egypt, as the main social protection tool in response to the recent socioeconomic crises and macro shocks. We use 2 panel datasets and 1 cross-sectional dataset to estimate the effectiveness of cash transfers as a shock-mitigative mechanism in the Egyptian context. In this paper, the results from the different models (Panel Fixed Effects model and the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) model) confirm that micro and macro shocks lead to significant decline in several household-level welfare outcomes and that Takaful cash transfers have a significant positive impact in mitigating the negative shock impacts, especially on households’ debt incidence, debt levels, and asset ownership, but not necessarily on food, and non-food expenditure levels. The results indicate large positive significant effects on decreasing household incidence of debt by up to 12.4 percent and lowered the debt size by approximately 18 percent among Takaful beneficiaries compared to non-beneficiaries’. Similar evidence is found on asset ownership levels, as the RDD model shows significant positive effects on total asset ownership and productive asset ownership, but the model failed to detect positive impacts on per capita food and non-food expenditures. Further extensions are still in progress to compare the models’ results with the DID model results when using a nationally representative ELMPS panel data (2018/2024) rounds. Finally, our initial analysis suggests that conditional cash transfers are effective in buffering the negative shock impacts on certain welfare indicators even after successive macro-economic shocks in 2022 and 2023 in the Egyptian Context.

Keywords: cash transfers, fixed effects, household welfare, household debt, micro shocks, regression discontinuity design

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Authors: Silvia Faroni, Olivier Le Courtois, Krzysztof Ostaszewski

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While a lot of research concentrates on the merits of VaR and TCE, which are the two most classic risk indicators used by financial institutions, little has been written on explaining why regulators favor the choice of VaR or TCE in their set of rules. In this paper, we investigate the preferences of regulators with the aim of understanding why, for instance, a VaR with a given confidence level is ultimately retained. Further, this paper provides equivalence rules that explain how a given choice of VaR can be equivalent to a given choice of TCE. Then, we introduce a new risk indicator that extends TCE by providing a more versatile weighting of the constituents of probability distribution tails. All of our results are illustrated using the generalized Pareto distribution.

Keywords: generalized pareto distribution, generalized tail conditional expectation, regulator preferences, risk measure

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Authors: S. Joseph Antony, Z. K. Jahanger

Abstract:

Soils are subjected to cyclic loading in situ in situations such as during earthquakes and in the compaction of pavements. Investigations on the local scale measurement of the displacements of the grain and failure patterns within the soil bed under the cyclic loading conditions are rather limited. In this paper, using the digital particle image velocimetry (DPIV), local scale displacement fields of a dense sand medium interacting with a rigid footing are measured under the plane-strain condition for two commonly used types of cyclic loading, and the quasi-static loading condition for the purposes of comparison. From the displacement measurements of the grains, the failure envelopes of the sand media are also presented. The results show that, the ultimate cyclic bearing capacity (qultcyc) occurred corresponding to a relatively higher settlement value when compared with that of under the quasi-static loading. For the sand media under the cyclic loading conditions considered here, the displacement fields in the soil media occurred more widely in the horizontal direction and less deeper along the vertical direction when compared with that of under the quasi-static loading. The 'dead zone' in the sand grains beneath the footing is identified for all types of the loading conditions studied here. These grain-scale characteristics have implications on the resulting bulk bearing capacity of the sand media in footing-sand interaction problems.

Keywords: cyclic loading, DPIV, settlement, soil-structure interactions, strip footing

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