Search results for: casual relationship model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 21537

Search results for: casual relationship model

18417 Gas Pressure Evaluation through Radial Velocity Measurement of Fluid Flow Modeled by Drift Flux Model

Authors: Aicha Rima Cheniti, Hatem Besbes, Joseph Haggege, Christophe Sintes

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a drift flux mixture model of the blood flow. The mixture consists of gas phase which is carbon dioxide and liquid phase which is an aqueous carbon dioxide solution. This model was used to determine the distributions of the mixture velocity, the mixture pressure, and the carbon dioxide pressure. These theoretical data are used to determine a measurement method of mean gas pressure through the determination of radial velocity distribution. This method can be applicable in experimental domain.

Keywords: mean carbon dioxide pressure, mean mixture pressure, mixture velocity, radial velocity

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18416 A Predictive Model of Supply and Demand in the State of Jalisco, Mexico

Authors: M. Gil, R. Montalvo

Abstract:

Business Intelligence (BI) has become a major source of competitive advantages for firms around the world. BI has been defined as the process of data visualization and reporting for understanding what happened and what is happening. Moreover, BI has been studied for its predictive capabilities in the context of trade and financial transactions. The current literature has identified that BI permits managers to identify market trends, understand customer relations, and predict demand for their products and services. This last capability of BI has been of special concern to academics. Specifically, due to its power to build predictive models adaptable to specific time horizons and geographical regions. However, the current literature of BI focuses on predicting specific markets and industries because the impact of such predictive models was relevant to specific industries or organizations. Currently, the existing literature has not developed a predictive model of BI that takes into consideration the whole economy of a geographical area. This paper seeks to create a predictive model of BI that would show the bigger picture of a geographical area. This paper uses a data set from the Secretary of Economic Development of the state of Jalisco, Mexico. Such data set includes data from all the commercial transactions that occurred in the state in the last years. By analyzing such data set, it will be possible to generate a BI model that predicts supply and demand from specific industries around the state of Jalisco. This research has at least three contributions. Firstly, a methodological contribution to the BI literature by generating the predictive supply and demand model. Secondly, a theoretical contribution to BI current understanding. The model presented in this paper incorporates the whole picture of the economic field instead of focusing on a specific industry. Lastly, a practical contribution might be relevant to local governments that seek to improve their economic performance by implementing BI in their policy planning.

Keywords: business intelligence, predictive model, supply and demand, Mexico

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18415 Mourning through Poetry: Discovering the Lost Love object and Symbolization of Desire

Authors: Galit Harel

Abstract:

Deborah was referred for psychoanalytic psychotherapy following a suicide attempt and depression. She began a fascinating journey spanning more than 10 years. During therapy, many questions arose concerning the suicidal episode, which she could not register consciously. The author tried to understand the reasons for her depression and the attempted suicide through the unconscious process in the therapeutic relationship and through the music and poetry that she brought to sessions. In this paper, the author describes the process of listening for the signifiers of semiotic and symbolic language, both metaphoric and metonymic, as revealed in poetry and music according to the theories of Kristeva and Lacan. The poetry enabled the patient to retrieve childhood memories, experience the movement from unconscious to conscious, and mourn through the experience of transference and countertransference in the therapeutic relationship. Also illustrated is the transition from singing the music to more symbolic language, turning the patient’s sensory experience into language, and connecting her personal experience with the culture of her past. The patient’s mourning and the lost love objects are discussed through the prism of classical and object relations theories.

Keywords: depression, lost love object, psychoanalytic psychotherapy, suicide attempt, symbolization of desire

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18414 Market Integration in the ECCAS Sub-Region

Authors: Mouhamed Mbouandi Njikam

Abstract:

This work assesses the trade potential of countries in the Economic Community of Central Africa States (ECCAS). The gravity model of trade is used to evaluate the trade flows of member countries, and to compute the trade potential index of ECCAS during 1995-2010. The focus is on the removal of tariffs and non-tariff barriers in the sub-region. Estimates from the gravity model are used for the calculation of the sub-region’s commercial potential. Its three main findings are: (i) the background research shows a low level of integration in the sub-region and open economies; (ii) a low level of industrialization and diversification are the main factors reducing trade potential in the sub-region; (iii) the trade creation predominate on the deflections of trade between member countries.

Keywords: gravity model, ECCAS, trade flows, trade potential, regional cooperation

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18413 Development of Time Series Forecasting Model for Dengue Cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Southern Thailand

Authors: Manit Pollar

Abstract:

Identifying the dengue epidemic periods early would be helpful to take necessary actions to prevent the dengue outbreaks. Providing an accurate prediction on dengue epidemic seasons will allow sufficient time to take the necessary decisions and actions to safeguard the situation for local authorities. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model on number of dengue incidences in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Southern Thailand using time series analysis. We develop Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the monthly data collected between 2003-2011 and validated the models using data collected between January-September 2012. The result of this study revealed that the SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,2,1)12 model closely described the trends and seasons of dengue incidence and confirmed the existence of dengue fever cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat for the years between 2003-2011. The study showed that the one-step approach for predicting dengue incidences provided significantly more accurate predictions than the twelve-step approach. The model, even if based purely on statistical data analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for disease prevention.

Keywords: SARIMA, time series model, dengue cases, Thailand

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18412 Structural Analysis and Detail Design of APV Module Structure Using Topology Optimization Design

Authors: Hyun Kyu Cho, Jun Soo Kim, Young Hoon Lee, Sang Hoon Kang, Young Chul Park

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In the study, structure for one of offshore drilling system APV(Air Pressure Vessle) modules was designed by using topology optimum design and performed structural safety evaluation according to DNV rules. 3D model created base on design area and non-design area separated by using topology optimization for the environmental loads. This model separated 17 types for wind loads and dynamic loads and performed structural analysis evaluation for each model. As a result, the maximum stress occurred 181.25MPa.

Keywords: APV, topology optimum design, DNV, structural analysis, stress

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18411 Developing Integrated Model for Building Design and Evacuation Planning

Authors: Hao-Hsi Tseng, Hsin-Yun Lee

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In the process of building design, the designers have to complete the spatial design and consider the evacuation performance at the same time. It is usually difficult to combine the two planning processes and it results in the gap between spatial design and evacuation performance. Then the designers cannot complete an integrated optimal design solution. In addition, the evacuation routing models proposed by previous researchers is different from the practical evacuation decisions in the real field. On the other hand, more and more building design projects are executed by Building Information Modeling (BIM) in which the design content is formed by the object-oriented framework. Thus, the integration of BIM and evacuation simulation can make a significant contribution for designers. Therefore, this research plan will establish a model that integrates spatial design and evacuation planning. The proposed model will provide the support for the spatial design modifications and optimize the evacuation planning. The designers can complete the integrated design solution in BIM. Besides, this research plan improves the evacuation routing method to make the simulation results more practical. The proposed model will be applied in a building design project for evaluation and validation when it will provide the near-optimal design suggestion. By applying the proposed model, the integration and efficiency of the design process are improved and the evacuation plan is more useful. The quality of building spatial design will be better.

Keywords: building information modeling, evacuation, design, floor plan

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18410 An Optimization Model for Waste Management in Demolition Works

Authors: Eva Queheille, Franck Taillandier, Nadia Saiyouri

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Waste management has become a major issue in demolition works, because of its environmental impact (energy consumption, resource consumption, pollution…). However, improving waste management requires to take also into account the overall demolition process and to consider demolition main objectives (e.g. cost, delay). Establishing a strategy with these conflicting objectives (economic and environment) remains complex. In order to provide a decision-support for demolition companies, a multi-objective optimization model was developed. In this model, a demolition strategy is computed from a set of 80 decision variables (worker team composition, machines, treatment for each type of waste, choice of treatment platform…), which impacts the demolition objectives. The model has experimented on a real-case study (demolition of several buildings in France). To process the optimization, different optimization algorithms (NSGA2, MOPSO, DBEA…) were tested. Results allow the engineer in charge of this case, to build a sustainable demolition strategy without affecting cost or delay.

Keywords: deconstruction, life cycle assessment, multi-objective optimization, waste management

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18409 Application of Public Access Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic and Distributed Hydrological Models for Flood Forecasting in Ungauged Basins

Authors: Ahmad Shayeq Azizi, Yuji Toda

Abstract:

In Afghanistan, floods are the most frequent and recurrent events among other natural disasters. On the other hand, lack of monitoring data is a severe problem, which increases the difficulty of making the appropriate flood countermeasures of flood forecasting. This study is carried out to simulate the flood inundation in Harirud River Basin by application of distributed hydrological model, Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) and 2D hydrodynamic model, International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) based on satellite rainfall combined with historical peak discharge and global accessed data. The results of the simulation can predict the inundation area, depth and velocity, and the hardware countermeasures such as the impact of levee installation can be discussed by using the present method. The methodology proposed in this study is suitable for the area where hydrological and geographical data including river survey data are poorly observed.

Keywords: distributed hydrological model, flood inundation, hydrodynamic model, ungauged basins

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18408 Numerical Modeling of Flow in USBR II Stilling Basin with End Adverse Slope

Authors: Hamidreza Babaali, Alireza Mojtahedi, Nasim Soori, Saba Soori

Abstract:

Hydraulic jump is one of the effective ways of energy dissipation in stilling basins that the ‎energy is highly dissipated by jumping. Adverse slope surface at the end stilling basin is ‎caused to increase energy dissipation and stability of the hydraulic jump. In this study, the adverse slope ‎has been added to end of United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) II stilling basin in hydraulic model of Nazloochay dam with scale 1:40, and flow simulated into stilling basin using Flow-3D ‎software. The numerical model is verified by experimental data of water depth in ‎stilling basin. Then, the parameters of water level profile, Froude Number, pressure, air ‎entrainment and turbulent dissipation investigated for discharging 300 m3/s using K-Ɛ and Re-Normalization Group (RNG) turbulence ‎models. The results showed a good agreement between numerical and experimental model‎ as ‎numerical model can be used to optimize of stilling basins.‎

Keywords: experimental and numerical modelling, end adverse slope, flow ‎parameters, USBR II stilling basin

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18407 Developing the Collaboration Model of Physical Education and Sport Sciences Faculties with Service Section of Sport Industrial

Authors: Vahid Saatchian, Seyyed Farideh Hadavi

Abstract:

The main aim of this study was developing the collaboration model of physical education and sport sciences faculties with service section of sport industrial.The research methods of this study was a qualitative. So researcher with of identifying the priority list of collaboration between colleges and service section of sport industry and according to sampling based of subjective and snowball approach, conducted deep interviews with 22 elites that study around the field of research topic. indeed interviews were analyzed through qualitative coding (open, axial and selective) with 5 category such as causal condition, basic condition, intervening conditions, action/ interaction and strategy. Findings exposed that in causal condition 10 labels appeared. So because of heterogeneity of labes, researcher categorized in total subject. In basic condition 59 labels in open coding identified this categorized in 14 general concepts. Furthermore with composition of the declared category and relationship between them, 5 final and internal categories (culture, intelligence, marketing, environment and ultra-powers) were appeared. Also an intervening condition in the study includes 5 overall scopes of social factors, economic, cultural factors, and the management of the legal and political factors that totally named macro environment. Indeed for identifying strategies, 8 areas that covered with internal and external challenges relationship management were appeared. These are including, understanding, outside awareness, manpower, culture, integrated management, the rules and regulations and marketing. Findings exposed 8 labels in open coding which covered the internal and external of challenges of relation management of two sides and these concepts were knowledge and awareness, external view, human source, madding organizational culture, parties’ thoughts, unit responsible for/integrated management, laws and regulations and marketing. Eventually the consequences categorized in line of strategies and were at scope of the cultural development, general development, educational development, scientific development, under development, international development, social development, economic development, technology development and political development that consistent with strategies. The research findings could help the sport managers witch use to scientific collaboration management and the consequences of this in those sport institutions. Finally, the consequences that identified as a result of the devopmental strategies include: cultural, governmental, educational, scientific, infrastructure, international, social, economic, technological and political that is largely consistent with strategies. With regard to the above results, enduring and systematic relation with long term cooperation between the two sides requires strategic planning were based on cooperation of all stakeholders. Through this, in the turbulent constantly changing current sustainable environment, competitive advantage for university and industry obtained. No doubt that lack of vision and strategic thinking for cooperation in the planning of the university and industry from its capability and instead of using the opportunity, lead the opportunities to problems.

Keywords: university and industry collaboration, sport industry, physical education and sport science college, service section of sport industry

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18406 A Novel Machining Method and Tool-Path Generation for Bent Mandrel

Authors: Hong Lu, Yongquan Zhang, Wei Fan, Xiangang Su

Abstract:

Bent mandrel has been widely used as precise mould in automobile industry, shipping industry and aviation industry. To improve the versatility and efficiency of turning method of bent mandrel with fixed rotational center, an instantaneous machining model based on cutting parameters and machine dimension is prospered in this paper. The spiral-like tool path generation approach in non-axisymmetric turning process of bent mandrel is developed as well to deal with the error of part-to-part repeatability in existed turning model. The actual cutter-location points are calculated by cutter-contact points, which are obtained from the approach of spiral sweep process using equal-arc-length segment principle in polar coordinate system. The tool offset is set to avoid the interference between tool and work piece is also considered in the machining model. Depend on the spindle rotational angle, synchronization control of X-axis, Z-axis and C-axis is adopted to generate the tool-path of the turning process. The simulation method is developed to generate NC program according to the presented model, which includes calculation of cutter-location points and generation of tool-path of cutting process. With the approach of a bent mandrel taken as an example, the maximum offset of center axis is 4mm in the 3D space. Experiment results verify that the machining model and turning method are appropriate for the characteristics of bent mandrel.

Keywords: bent mandrel, instantaneous machining model, simulation method, tool-path generation

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18405 Assessing Effects of an Intervention on Bottle-Weaning and Reducing Daily Milk Intake from Bottles in Toddlers Using Two-Part Random Effects Models

Authors: Yungtai Lo

Abstract:

Two-part random effects models have been used to fit semi-continuous longitudinal data where the response variable has a point mass at 0 and a continuous right-skewed distribution for positive values. We review methods proposed in the literature for analyzing data with excess zeros. A two-part logit-log-normal random effects model, a two-part logit-truncated normal random effects model, a two-part logit-gamma random effects model, and a two-part logit-skew normal random effects model were used to examine effects of a bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use and daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months in a randomized controlled trial. We show in all four two-part models that the intervention promoted bottle-weaning and reduced daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers drinking from a bottle. We also show that there are no differences in model fit using either the logit link function or the probit link function for modeling the probability of bottle-weaning in all four models. Furthermore, prediction accuracy of the logit or probit link function is not sensitive to the distribution assumption on daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, truncated normal, gamma regression, skew normal, Pearson residual, receiver operating characteristic curve

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18404 Environmental Refugees in Africa: A Case Study of Sahel Region

Authors: Ahlem Setrallah

Abstract:

Environment has become a phenomenon directly linked to security in recent decades. This security aspect of environment is justified by the challenges that environment problems can have on human life and thus security especially within the scope of human security that is based mainly on the individual rather than on the state. Because Africa is not safe from the global warming and all its consequences on environment, this continent has witnessed many crises related to environment and that have had direct impact on security in Africa. One of those crises is environmental displacement or immigration which was caused by natural disasters like draught, desertification and food shortage to name but a few. This paper aims at shedding light at some important cases in the Africa focusing mainly on the Sahel region. The main research questions that we are trying to answer are the following: 1-What is the relationship between environment and forced immigration in the Sahel region? 2-What is the impact of environmental immigration on Security in the region? 3-How have the states in this region reacted to this crisis? 4-Is the measures taken by those states adequate or not? 5- How to remedy for the limitations of those measures? The paper is based on case study methodology as a way to better understand the relationship between security and environment using library research for data collection and analysis. This paper aims also at presenting some suggesting regarding possible ways of reducing the negative impact of environmental immigration.

Keywords: environment, refugees, Sahel region, security

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18403 DenseNet and Autoencoder Architecture for COVID-19 Chest X-Ray Image Classification and Improved U-Net Lung X-Ray Segmentation

Authors: Jonathan Gong

Abstract:

Purpose AI-driven solutions are at the forefront of many pathology and medical imaging methods. Using algorithms designed to better the experience of medical professionals within their respective fields, the efficiency and accuracy of diagnosis can improve. In particular, X-rays are a fast and relatively inexpensive test that can diagnose diseases. In recent years, X-rays have not been widely used to detect and diagnose COVID-19. The under use of Xrays is mainly due to the low diagnostic accuracy and confounding with pneumonia, another respiratory disease. However, research in this field has expressed a possibility that artificial neural networks can successfully diagnose COVID-19 with high accuracy. Models and Data The dataset used is the COVID-19 Radiography Database. This dataset includes images and masks of chest X-rays under the labels of COVID-19, normal, and pneumonia. The classification model developed uses an autoencoder and a pre-trained convolutional neural network (DenseNet201) to provide transfer learning to the model. The model then uses a deep neural network to finalize the feature extraction and predict the diagnosis for the input image. This model was trained on 4035 images and validated on 807 separate images from the ones used for training. The images used to train the classification model include an important feature: the pictures are cropped beforehand to eliminate distractions when training the model. The image segmentation model uses an improved U-Net architecture. This model is used to extract the lung mask from the chest X-ray image. The model is trained on 8577 images and validated on a validation split of 20%. These models are calculated using the external dataset for validation. The models’ accuracy, precision, recall, f1-score, IOU, and loss are calculated. Results The classification model achieved an accuracy of 97.65% and a loss of 0.1234 when differentiating COVID19-infected, pneumonia-infected, and normal lung X-rays. The segmentation model achieved an accuracy of 97.31% and an IOU of 0.928. Conclusion The models proposed can detect COVID-19, pneumonia, and normal lungs with high accuracy and derive the lung mask from a chest X-ray with similarly high accuracy. The hope is for these models to elevate the experience of medical professionals and provide insight into the future of the methods used.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, convolutional neural networks, deep learning, image processing, machine learning

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18402 Action Research for School Development

Authors: Beate Weyland

Abstract:

The interdisciplinary laboratory EDEN, Educational Environments with Nature, born in 2020 at the Faculty of Education of the Free University of Bolzano, is working on a research path initiated in 2012 on the relationship between pedagogy and architecture in the design process of school buildings. Between 2016 and 2018, advisory support activity for schools was born, which combined the need to qualify the physical spaces of the school with the need to update teaching practices and develop school organization with the aim of improving pupils' and teachers' sense of well-being. The goal of accompanying the development of school communities through research-training paths concerns the process of designing together pedagogical-didactic and architectural environments in which to stage the educational relationship, involving professionals from education, educational research, architecture and design, and local administration. Between 2019 and 2024, more than 30 schools and educational communities throughout Italy have entered into research-training agreements with the university, focusing increasingly on the need to create new spaces and teaching methods capable of imagining educational spaces as places of well-being and where cultural development can be presided over. The paper will focus on the presentation of the research path and on the mixed methods used to support schools and educational communities: identification of the research question, development of the research objective, experimentation, and data collection for analysis and reflection. School and educational communities are involved in a participative and active manner. The quality of the action-research work is enriched by a special focus on the relationship with plants and nature in general. Plants are seen as mediators of processes that unhinge traditional didactics and invite teachers, students, parents, and administrators to think about the quality of learning spaces and relationships based on well-being. The contribution is characterized by a particular focus on research methodologies and tools developed together with teachers to answer the issues raised and to measure the impact of the actions undertaken.

Keywords: school development, learning space, wellbeing, plants and nature

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18401 The Impact of the Composite Expanded Graphite PCM on the PV Panel Whole Year Electric Output: Case Study Milan

Authors: Hasan A Al-Asadi, Ali Samir, Afrah Turki Awad, Ali Basem

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Integrating the phase change material (PCM) with photovoltaic (PV) panels is one of the effective techniques to minimize the PV panel temperature and increase their electric output. In order to investigate the impact of the PCM on the electric output of the PV panels for a whole year, a lumped-distributed parameter model for the PV-PCM module has been developed. This development has considered the impact of the PCM density variation between the solid phase and liquid phase. This contribution will increase the assessment accuracy of the electric output of the PV-PCM module. The second contribution is to assess the impact of the expanded composite graphite-PCM on the PV electric output in Milan for a whole year. The novel one-dimensional model has been solved using MATLAB software. The results of this model have been validated against literature experiment work. The weather and the solar radiation data have been collected. The impact of expanded graphite-PCM on the electric output of the PV panel for a whole year has been investigated. The results indicate this impact has an enhancement rate of 2.39% for the electric output of the PV panel in Milan for a whole year.

Keywords: PV panel efficiency, PCM, numerical model, solar energy

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18400 Knowledge Audit Model for Requirement Elicitation Process

Authors: Laleh Taheri, Noraini C. Pa, Rusli Abdullah, Salfarina Abdullah

Abstract:

Knowledge plays an important role to the success of any organization. Software development organizations are highly knowledge-intensive organizations especially in their Requirement Elicitation Process (REP). There are several problems regarding communicating and using the knowledge in REP such as misunderstanding, being out of scope, conflicting information and changes of requirements. All of these problems occurred in transmitting the requirements knowledge during REP. Several researches have been done in REP in order to solve the problem towards requirements. Knowledge Audit (KA) approaches were proposed in order to solve managing knowledge in human resources, financial, and manufacturing. There is lack of study applying the KA in requirements elicitation process. Therefore, this paper proposes a KA model for REP in supporting to acquire good requirements.

Keywords: knowledge audit, requirement elicitation process, KA model, knowledge in requirement elicitation

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18399 Preference for Housing Services and Rational House Price Bubbles

Authors: Stefanie Jeanette Huber

Abstract:

This paper explores the relevance and implications of preferences for housing services on house price fluctuations through the lens of an overlapping generation’s model. The model implies that an economy whose agents have lower preferences for housing services is characterized with lower expenditure shares on housing services and will tend to experience more frequent and more volatile housing bubbles. These model predictions are tested empirically in the companion paper Housing Booms and Busts - Convergences and Divergences across OECD countries. Between 1970 - 2013, countries who spend less on housing services as a share of total income experienced significantly more housing cycles and the associated housing boom-bust cycles were more violent. Finally, the model is used to study the impact of rental subsidies and help-to-buy schemes on rational housing bubbles. Rental subsidies are found to contribute to the control of housing bubbles, whereas help-to- buy scheme makes the economy more bubble-prone.

Keywords: housing bubbles, housing booms and busts, preference for housing services, expenditure shares for housing services, rental and purchase subsidies

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18398 Autonomous Quantum Competitive Learning

Authors: Mohammed A. Zidan, Alaa Sagheer, Nasser Metwally

Abstract:

Real-time learning is an important goal that most of artificial intelligence researches try to achieve it. There are a lot of problems and applications which require low cost learning such as learn a robot to be able to classify and recognize patterns in real time and real-time recall. In this contribution, we suggest a model of quantum competitive learning based on a series of quantum gates and additional operator. The proposed model enables to recognize any incomplete patterns, where we can increase the probability of recognizing the pattern at the expense of the undesired ones. Moreover, these undesired ones could be utilized as new patterns for the system. The proposed model is much better compared with classical approaches and more powerful than the current quantum competitive learning approaches.

Keywords: competitive learning, quantum gates, quantum gates, winner-take-all

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18397 Non-Monogamy as Rebellion against Tradition in Jhumpa Lahiri’s The Namesake

Authors: Jingya Huang

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This paper argues that Moushumi Mazoomdar has non-monogamous relationships with different men before and after her marriage as a form of rebellion against the traditional Indian culture deeply ingrained in her. Written by Jhumpa Lahiri, The Namesake (2004) features an Indian couple migrating to America who gives birth to two children, including the main character Gogol. Moushumi, like Gogol, is also a second-generation Indian American. Because of the influence of American culture, Moushumi prefers to marry for love, disdaining any thought of an arranged marriage. This paper is divided into two parts: before and after marriage which can also be seen in the light of polyamory and infidelity. First, according to Anapol (2010), polyamory is a newly created word from Greek and Latin which means “loving more than one person at a time when it comes to romantic or erotic love.” The discussion of polyamory mainly focuses on the most basic heterosexual relationship without mentioning of homosexual and bisexual love relationships. By adopting Anapol’s concept of polyamory, this paper examines the nature of the relationships between Moushumi and other men before her marriage. Afterwards, the concept of infidelity is discussed to analyze the interaction between Moushumi and Dimitri. How Moushumi rebels against tradition is shown through these two main discussions.

Keywords: Indian American, non-monogamous relationship, rebellion, polyamory, infidelity

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18396 Predicting Indonesia External Debt Crisis: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

Authors: Riznaldi Akbar

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In this study, we compared the performance of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with back-propagation algorithm in correctly predicting in-sample and out-of-sample external debt crisis in Indonesia. We found that exchange rate, foreign reserves, and exports are the major determinants to experiencing external debt crisis. The ANN in-sample performance provides relatively superior results. The ANN model is able to classify correctly crisis of 89.12 per cent with reasonably low false alarms of 7.01 per cent. In out-of-sample, the prediction performance fairly deteriorates compared to their in-sample performances. It could be explained as the ANN model tends to over-fit the data in the in-sample, but it could not fit the out-of-sample very well. The 10-fold cross-validation has been used to improve the out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results also offer policy implications. The out-of-sample performance could be very sensitive to the size of the samples, as it could yield a higher total misclassification error and lower prediction accuracy. The ANN model could be used to identify past crisis episodes with some accuracy, but predicting crisis outside the estimation sample is much more challenging because of the presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: debt crisis, external debt, artificial neural network, ANN

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18395 Failure Inference and Optimization for Step Stress Model Based on Bivariate Wiener Model

Authors: Soudabeh Shemehsavar

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In this paper, we consider the situation under a life test, in which the failure time of the test units are not related deterministically to an observable stochastic time varying covariate. In such a case, the joint distribution of failure time and a marker value would be useful for modeling the step stress life test. The problem of accelerating such an experiment is considered as the main aim of this paper. We present a step stress accelerated model based on a bivariate Wiener process with one component as the latent (unobservable) degradation process, which determines the failure times and the other as a marker process, the degradation values of which are recorded at times of failure. Parametric inference based on the proposed model is discussed and the optimization procedure for obtaining the optimal time for changing the stress level is presented. The optimization criterion is to minimize the approximate variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of a percentile of the products’ lifetime distribution.

Keywords: bivariate normal, Fisher information matrix, inverse Gaussian distribution, Wiener process

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18394 The Effects of Different Parameters of Wood Floating Debris on Scour Rate Around Bridge Piers

Authors: Muhanad Al-Jubouri

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A local scour is the most important of the several scours impacting bridge performance and security. Even though scour is widespread in bridges, especially during flood seasons, the experimental tests could not be applied to many standard highway bridges. A computational fluid dynamics numerical model was used to solve the problem of calculating local scouring and deposition for non-cohesive silt and clear water conditions near single and double cylindrical piers with the effect of floating debris. When FLOW-3D software is employed with the Rang turbulence model, the Nilsson bed-load transfer equation and fine mesh size are considered. The numerical findings of single cylindrical piers correspond pretty well with the physical model's results. Furthermore, after parameter effectiveness investigates the range of outcomes based on predicted user inputs such as the bed-load equation, mesh cell size, and turbulence model, the final numerical predictions are compared to experimental data. When the findings are compared, the error rate for the deepest point of the scour is equivalent to 3.8% for the single pier example.

Keywords: local scouring, non-cohesive, clear water, computational fluid dynamics, turbulence model, bed-load equation, debris

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18393 Forward Speed and Draught Requirement of a Semi-Automatic Cassava Planter under Different Wheel Usage

Authors: Ale M. O., Manuwa S. I., Olukunle O. J., Ewetumo T.

Abstract:

Five varying speeds of 1.5, 1.8, 2.1, 2.3, and 2.6 km/h were used at a constant soil depth of 100 mm to determine the effects of forward speed on the draught requirement of a semi-automatic cassava planter under the pneumatic wheel and rigid wheel usage on a well prepared sandy clay loam soil. The soil draught was electronically measured using an on-the-go soil draught measuring instrumentation system developed for the purpose of this research. The results showed an exponential relationship between forward speed and draught, in which draught ranging between 24.91 and 744.44N increased with an increase in forward speed in the rigid wheel experiment. This is contrary to the polynomial relationship observed in the pneumatic wheel experiment in which the draught varied between 96.09 and 343.53 N. It was observed in the experiments that the optimum speed of 1.5 km/h had the least values of draught in both the pneumatic wheel and rigid wheel experiments, with higher values in the pneumatic experiment. It was generally noted that the rigid wheel planter with less value of draught requires less energy required for operation. It is therefore concluded that operating the semi-automatic cassava planter with rigid wheels will be more economical for cassava farmers than operating the planter with pneumatic wheels.

Keywords: Cassava planter, planting, forward speed, draught, wheel type

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18392 An Investigation of Pain and Life Satisfaction in Elderly Individuals in Turkey

Authors: Senay Karadag Arli, Ayse Berivan Bakan, Ela Varol, Gulpinar Aslan

Abstract:

Objective: This study aims to investigate pain and life satisfaction in elderly individuals. Methods: This study, which is descriptive in nature, utilized relational screening model. It was conducted between September 2016 and March 2017, with 387 people aged 65 and over who were registered in Family Health Centers in Ağrı, a city located in eastern Turkey. Results: The Geriatric Pain Measure mean score of the participants was 53.23 ± 29.40, indicating moderate pain. The Life Satisfaction Scale mean score was found 8.50 ± 5.34, indicating moderate life satisfaction level. The study also found a statistically significant, negative relationship between life satisfaction and geriatric pain. Conclusion: Increase in elderly population brings along various health problems. Results of this study show that the rate of chronic diseases is very high in elderly individuals. Therefore, pain is one of the most frequently encountered health problems, and it has negative effects on life satisfaction. In conclusion, it is considered that elderly people’s life satisfaction could increase if their pain is identified and reduced effectively.

Keywords: geriatric pain measure, life satisfaction, pain, Turkey

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18391 Evaluating the Suitability and Performance of Dynamic Modulus Predictive Models for North Dakota’s Asphalt Mixtures

Authors: Duncan Oteki, Andebut Yeneneh, Daba Gedafa, Nabil Suleiman

Abstract:

Most agencies lack the equipment required to measure the dynamic modulus (|E*|) of asphalt mixtures, necessitating the need to use predictive models. This study compared measured |E*| values for nine North Dakota asphalt mixes using the original Witczak, modified Witczak, and Hirsch models. The influence of temperature on the |E*| models was investigated, and Pavement ME simulations were conducted using measured |E*| and predictions from the most accurate |E*| model. The results revealed that the original Witczak model yielded the lowest Se/Sy and highest R² values, indicating the lowest bias and highest accuracy, while the poorest overall performance was exhibited by the Hirsch model. Using predicted |E*| as inputs in the Pavement ME generated conservative distress predictions compared to using measured |E*|. The original Witczak model was recommended for predicting |E*| for low-reliability pavements in North Dakota.

Keywords: asphalt mixture, binder, dynamic modulus, MEPDG, pavement ME, performance, prediction

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18390 Efficiency of Secondary Schools by ICT Intervention in Sylhet Division of Bangladesh

Authors: Azizul Baten, Kamrul Hossain, Abdullah-Al-Zabir

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to develop an appropriate stochastic frontier secondary schools efficiency model by ICT Intervention and to examine the impact of ICT challenges on secondary schools efficiency in the Sylhet division in Bangladesh using stochastic frontier analysis. The Translog stochastic frontier model was found an appropriate than the Cobb-Douglas model in secondary schools efficiency by ICT Intervention. Based on the results of the Cobb-Douglas model, it is found that the coefficient of the number of teachers, the number of students, and teaching ability had a positive effect on increasing the level of efficiency. It indicated that these are related to technical efficiency. In the case of inefficiency effects for both Cobb-Douglas and Translog models, the coefficient of the ICT lab decreased secondary school inefficiency, but the online class in school was found to increase the level of inefficiency. The coefficients of teacher’s preference for ICT tools like multimedia projectors played a contributor role in decreasing the secondary school inefficiency in the Sylhet division of Bangladesh. The interaction effects of the number of teachers and the classrooms, and the number of students and the number of classrooms, the number of students and teaching ability, and the classrooms and teaching ability of the teachers were recorded with the positive values and these have a positive impact on increasing the secondary school efficiency. The overall mean efficiency of urban secondary schools was found at 84.66% for the Translog model, while it was 83.63% for the Cobb-Douglas model. The overall mean efficiency of rural secondary schools was found at 80.98% for the Translog model, while it was 81.24% for the Cobb-Douglas model. So, the urban secondary schools performed better than the rural secondary schools in the Sylhet division. It is observed from the results of the Tobit model that the teacher-student ratio had a positive influence on secondary school efficiency. The teaching experiences of those who have 1 to 5 years and 10 years above, MPO type school, conventional teaching method have had a negative and significant influence on secondary school efficiency. The estimated value of σ-square (0.0625) was different from Zero, indicating a good fit. The value of γ (0.9872) was recorded as positive and it can be interpreted as follows: 98.72 percent of random variation around in secondary school outcomes due to inefficiency.

Keywords: efficiency, secondary schools, ICT, stochastic frontier analysis

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18389 Distangling Biological Noise in Cellular Images with a Focus on Explainability

Authors: Manik Sharma, Ganapathy Krishnamurthi

Abstract:

The cost of some drugs and medical treatments has risen in recent years, that many patients are having to go without. A classification project could make researchers more efficient. One of the more surprising reasons behind the cost is how long it takes to bring new treatments to market. Despite improvements in technology and science, research and development continues to lag. In fact, finding new treatment takes, on average, more than 10 years and costs hundreds of millions of dollars. If successful, we could dramatically improve the industry's ability to model cellular images according to their relevant biology. In turn, greatly decreasing the cost of treatments and ensure these treatments get to patients faster. This work aims at solving a part of this problem by creating a cellular image classification model which can decipher the genetic perturbations in cell (occurring naturally or artificially). Another interesting question addressed is what makes the deep-learning model decide in a particular fashion, which can further help in demystifying the mechanism of action of certain perturbations and paves a way towards the explainability of the deep-learning model.

Keywords: cellular images, genetic perturbations, deep-learning, explainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
18388 Statistical Shape Analysis of the Human Upper Airway

Authors: Ramkumar Gunasekaran, John Cater, Vinod Suresh, Haribalan Kumar

Abstract:

The main objective of this project is to develop a statistical shape model using principal component analysis that could be used for analyzing the shape of the human airway. The ultimate goal of this project is to identify geometric risk factors for diagnosis and management of Obstructive Sleep Apnoea (OSA). Anonymous CBCT scans of 25 individuals were obtained from the Otago Radiology Group. The airways were segmented between the hard-palate and the aryepiglottic fold using snake active contour segmentation. The point data cloud of the segmented images was then fitted with a bi-cubic mesh, and pseudo landmarks were placed to perform PCA on the segmented airway to analyze the shape of the airway and to find the relationship between the shape and OSA risk factors. From the PCA results, the first four modes of variation were found to be significant. Mode 1 was interpreted to be the overall length of the airway, Mode 2 was related to the anterior-posterior width of the retroglossal region, Mode 3 was related to the lateral dimension of the oropharyngeal region and Mode 4 was related to the anterior-posterior width of the oropharyngeal region. All these regions are subjected to the risk factors of OSA.

Keywords: medical imaging, image processing, FEM/BEM, statistical modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 503