Search results for: decision trees

Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, turkey

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Authors: Sanjivrao Katakam, Thanumoorthi I., Antony Gerald, Ratan Kulkarni, Shaju Nair

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With increasing energy costs and its impact on the business, sustainability today has evolved from a social expectation to an economic imperative. Therefore, finding methods to reduce cost has become a critical directive for Industry leaders. Effective energy management is the only way to cut costs. However, Energy Management has been a challenge because it requires a change in old habits and legacy systems followed for decades. Today exorbitant levels of energy and operational data is being captured and stored by Industries, but they are unable to convert these structured and unstructured data sets into meaningful business intelligence. It must be noted that for quick decisions, organizations must learn to cope with large volumes of operational data in different formats. Energy analytics not only helps in extracting inferences from these data sets, but also is instrumental in transformation from old approaches of energy management to new. This in turn assists in effective decision making for implementation. It is the requirement of organizations to have an established corporate strategy for reducing operational costs through visibility and optimization of energy usage. Energy analytics play a key role in optimization of operations. The paper describes how today energy data analytics is extensively used in different scenarios like reducing operational costs, predicting energy demands, optimizing network efficiency, asset maintenance, improving customer insights and device data insights. The paper also highlights how analytics helps transform insights obtained from energy data into sustainable solutions. The paper utilizes data from an array of segments such as retail, transportation, and water sectors.

Keywords: energy analytics, energy management, operational data, business intelligence, optimization

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Authors: Manavjit Singh Dhindsa, Ursula Das, Kshirasagar Naik, Marzia Zaman, Richard Purcell, Srinivas Sampalli, Abdul Mutakabbir, Chung-Horng Lung, Thambirajah Ravichandran

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These days, wildland fires, also known as forest fires, are more prevalent than ever. Wildfires have major repercussions that affect ecosystems, communities, and the environment in several ways. Wildfires lead to habitat destruction and biodiversity loss, affecting ecosystems and causing soil erosion. They also contribute to poor air quality by releasing smoke and pollutants that pose health risks, especially for individuals with respiratory conditions. Wildfires can damage infrastructure, disrupt communities, and cause economic losses. The economic impact of firefighting efforts, combined with their direct effects on forestry and agriculture, causes significant financial difficulties for the areas impacted. This research explores different forest fire spread models and presents a comprehensive review of various techniques and methodologies used in the field. A forest fire spread model is a computational or mathematical representation that is used to simulate and predict the behavior of a forest fire. By applying scientific concepts and data from empirical studies, these models attempt to capture the intricate dynamics of how a fire spreads, taking into consideration a variety of factors like weather patterns, topography, fuel types, and environmental conditions. These models assist authorities in understanding and forecasting the potential trajectory and intensity of a wildfire. Emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of wildfire dynamics, this research explores the approaches, assumptions, and findings derived from various models. By using a comparison approach, a critical analysis is provided by identifying patterns, strengths, and weaknesses among these models. The purpose of the survey is to further wildfire research and management techniques. Decision-makers, researchers, and practitioners can benefit from the useful insights that are provided by synthesizing established information. Fire spread models provide insights into potential fire behavior, facilitating authorities to make informed decisions about evacuation activities, allocating resources for fire-fighting efforts, and planning for preventive actions. Wildfire spread models are also useful in post-wildfire mitigation strategies as they help in assessing the fire's severity, determining high-risk regions for post-fire dangers, and forecasting soil erosion trends. The analysis highlights the importance of customized modeling approaches for various circumstances and promotes our understanding of the way forest fires spread. Some of the known models in this field are Rothermel’s wildland fuel model, FARSITE, WRF-SFIRE, FIRETEC, FlamMap, FSPro, cellular automata model, and others. The key characteristics that these models consider include weather (includes factors such as wind speed and direction), topography (includes factors like landscape elevation), and fuel availability (includes factors like types of vegetation) among other factors. The models discussed are physics-based, data-driven, or hybrid models, also utilizing ML techniques like attention-based neural networks to enhance the performance of the model. In order to lessen the destructive effects of forest fires, this initiative aims to promote the development of more precise prediction tools and effective management techniques. The survey expands its scope to address the practical needs of numerous stakeholders. Access to enhanced early warning systems enables decision-makers to take prompt action. Emergency responders benefit from improved resource allocation strategies, strengthening the efficacy of firefighting efforts.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, deep learning, forest fire management, fire risk assessment, fire simulation, machine learning, remote sensing, wildfire modeling

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Authors: Ha T. T. Ly, Truc B. Truc, Hai N. Truong, Mai P. T. Nguyen, Ngoc D. Ngo, Khanh V. Tran, Hai T. Le

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Beta thalassemia is one of the most common inherited blood disorders, which is characterized by decreased or absent in beta globin expression. Patients with Beta thalassemia whose anemia is not so severe as to necessitate transfusions are said to have thalassemia intermedia. Objective: The goal of this study is prenatal diagnosis for pregnancy woman with Beta thalassemia intermedia and her husband with Beta thalassemia carrier at high risk of Beta thalassemia major in Northern of Vietnam. Material and method: The family has a 6 years-old compound heterozygous thalassemia major for CD71/72(+A) and Hbb:c. -78A>G/nt-28(A>G) male child. The father was heterozygous for CD71/72(+A) mutation which is Beta plus type and the mother was compound heterozygosity of two different variants, namely, Hbb: c. -78A>G/nt-28(A>G) and CD26(A-G) HbE. Prenatal Beta thalassemia mutation detection in fetal DNA was carried out using multiplex Amplification-refractory mutation system ARMS-PCR and confirmed by direct Sanger-sequencing Hbb gene. Prenatal diagnoses were perfomed by amniotic fluid sampling from pregnant woman in the 16-18th week of pregnancy after the genotypes of parents of the probands were identified. Result: When amniotic fluid sample was analyzed for Beta globin gene (Hbb), we found that the genotype is heterozygous for CD71/72(+A) and CD26(A-G) HbE. This genotype is different from the 1st child of this family. Conclusion: Prenatal diagnosis helps the parents to know the genotype and the thalassemia status of the fetus, so they can have early decision on their pregnancy. Genetic diagnosis provided a useful method in diagnosis for familial members in pedigree, genetic counseling and prenatal diagnosis.

Keywords: beta thalassemia intermedia, Hbb gene, pedigree, prenatal diagnosis

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Authors: Evangelos Koumparoudis

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The definition of death is a deep philosophical question, and no single meaning can be ascribed to it. This essay focuses on the ontological, epistemological, and ethical aspects of death and dying in view of technological progress in information technology and biomedicine. It starts with the ad hoc 1968 Harvard committee that proposed that the criterion for the definition of death be irreversible coma and then refers to the debate over the whole brain death formula, emphasizing the integrated function of the organism and higher brain formula, taking consciousness and personality as essential human characteristics. It follows with the contribution of information technology in personalized and precision medicine and anti-aging measures aimed at life prolongation. It also touches on the possibility of the creation of human-machine hybrids and how this raises ontological and ethical issues that concern the “cyborgization” of human beings and the conception of the organism and personhood based on a post/transhumanist essence, and, furthermore, if sentient AI capable of autonomous decision-making that might even surpass human intelligence (singularity, superintelligence) deserves moral or legal personhood. Finally, there is the question as to whether death and dying should be redefined at a transcendent level, which is reinforced by already-existing technologies of “virtual after-” life and the possibility of uploading human minds. In the last section, I refer to the current (and future) applications of nanomedicine in diagnostics, therapeutics, implants, and tissue engineering as well as the aspiration to “immortality” by cryonics. The definition of death is reformulated since age and disease elimination may be realized, and the criterion of irreversibility may be challenged.

Keywords: death, posthumanism, infomedicine, nanomedicine, cryonics

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Authors: Hussain Syed Asad, Richard Kwok Kit Yuen, Gongsheng Huang

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Real-time optimization has been considered an effective approach for improving energy efficient operation of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. In model-based real-time optimization, model mismatches cannot be avoided. When model mismatches are significant, the performance of the real-time optimization will be impaired and hence the expected energy saving will be reduced. In this paper, the model mismatches for chiller plant on real-time optimization are considered. In the real-time optimization of the chiller plant, simplified semi-physical or grey box model of chiller is always used, which should be identified using available operation data. To overcome the model mismatches associated with the chiller model, hybrid Genetic Algorithms (HGAs) method is used for online real-time training of the chiller model. HGAs combines Genetic Algorithms (GAs) method (for global search) and traditional optimization method (i.e. faster and more efficient for local search) to avoid conventional hit and trial process of GAs. The identification of model parameters is synthesized as an optimization problem; and the objective function is the Least Square Error between the output from the model and the actual output from the chiller plant. A case study is used to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method. It has been shown that the proposed approach is able to provide reliability in decision making, enhance the robustness of the real-time optimization strategy and improve on energy performance.

Keywords: energy performance, hybrid adaptive modeling, hybrid genetic algorithms, real-time optimization, heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning

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Authors: Houda Kohli Kallel, Soumaya Gharsallah Falhi

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Kerkennah Islands are a group of islands lying off the eastern coast of Tunisia, 15 miles from the Sfaxian coast. This archipelago covers an area of 150 square kilometres, and it consists of two main islands : The Gharbi and The Chergui . It also covers twelve more islets. Kerkennah is endowed with an exceptional cultural, natural and ecological potential, essential for the sustainability of the island community. Hence ,the inhabitants there have mobilized the natural resources of their land for decades. However, today, and despite these heritage treasures, Kerkennian islanders are facing social, economic and environmental challenges which are currently hindering the development of the traditional activities of fishing and farming. Other than being isolated and having a non-diversified economy, we cite the erosion of the stream banks, the exodus of young people and the population aging. "This study find the solutions that are likely to allow a sustainable development of the island territory, its enhancement and the strengthening of its identity. It is also necessary to study the key factors impacting the archipelago’s cultural tourism of decision makers and citizens. First, we will present the archipelago. Second, we will describe its tangible as well as intangible heritage. Then, we will present the new modes of the site exploitation. Finally, we will identify some new projects paving the way to a sustainable tourism in Kerkennah such as Borj EL Lahssar archaeological digs and Kerkennah insular heritage museum. To conclude, the archipelago of Kerkennah needs to reintegrate all its historical, architectural and archaeological assets in order to enhance its cultural tourism based on the cultural circuits of the territorial identities and the island values.

Keywords: kerkennah, identity, heritage, historical architectural

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Authors: Li-Hsueh Chen

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Efficient operation is more and more important for managers of hotels. Unlike the manufacturing industry, hotels cannot store their products. In addition, many hotels provide room service, and food and beverage service simultaneously. When efficiencies of hotels are evaluated, the internal structure should be considered. Hence, based on the operational characteristics of hotels, this study proposes a DEA model to simultaneously assess the efficiencies among the room production division, food and beverage production division, room service division and food and beverage service division. However, not only the enhancement of efficiency but also the adjustment of scale can improve the performance. In terms of the adjustment of scale, scale elasticity or returns to scale can help to managers to make decisions concerning expansion or contraction. In order to construct a reasonable approach to measure the efficiencies and scale elasticities of hotels, this study builds an alternative variable-returns-to-scale-based two-stage network DEA model with the combination of parallel and series structures to explore the scale elasticities of the whole system, room production division, food and beverage production division, room service division and food and beverage service division based on the data of international tourist hotel industry in Taiwan. The results may provide valuable information on operational performance and scale for managers and decision makers.

Keywords: efficiency, scale elasticity, network data envelopment analysis, international tourist hotel

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Authors: G. Edwards, N. Dybro, L. J. Munkholm, C. G. Sørensen

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Planning agricultural operations requires an understanding of when fields are ready for operations. However determining a field’s readiness is a difficult process that can involve large amounts of data and an experienced farm manager. A consequence of this is that operations are often executed when fields are unready, or partially unready, which can compromise results incurring environmental impacts, decreased yield and increased operational costs. In order to assess timeliness of operations’ execution, a new scheme is introduced to quantify the aptitude of farm managers to plan operations. Two criteria are presented by which the execution of operations can be evaluated as to their exploitation of a field’s readiness window. A dataset containing the execution dates of spring and autumn operations on 93 fields in Iowa, USA, over two years, was considered as an example and used to demonstrate how operations’ executions can be evaluated. The execution dates were compared with simulated data to gain a measure of how disparate the actual execution was from the ideal execution. The presented tool is able to evaluate the spring operations better than the autumn operations as required data was lacking to correctly parameterise the crop model. Further work is needed on the underlying models of the decision support tool in order for its situational knowledge to emulate reality more consistently. However the assessment methods and evaluation criteria presented offer a standard by which operations' execution proficiency can be quantified and could be used to identify farm managers who require decisional support when planning operations, or as a means of incentivising and promoting the use of sustainable farming practices.

Keywords: operation management, field readiness, sustainable farming, workability

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Authors: Joanna Kochanska, Dagmara Gornicka, Anna Burduk

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The article examines the process of implementing a new assembly line in a manufacturing enterprise of the household appliances industry area. At the initial stages of the project, a decision was made that one of its foundations should be the concept of lean management. Because of that, eliminating as many errors as possible in the first phases of its functioning was emphasized. During the start-up of the line, there were identified and documented all production losses (from serious machine failures, through any unplanned downtime, to micro-stops and quality defects). During 6 weeks (line start-up period), all errors resulting from problems in various areas were analyzed. These areas were, among the others, production, logistics, quality, and organization. The aim of the work was to analyze the occurrence of production failures during the initial phase of starting up the line and to propose a method for determining their critical level during its full functionality. There was examined the repeatability of the production losses in various areas and at different levels at such an early stage of implementation, by using the methods of statistical process control. Based on the Pareto analysis, there were identified the weakest points in order to focus improvement actions on them. The next step was to examine the effectiveness of the actions undertaken to reduce the level of recorded losses. Based on the obtained results, there was proposed a method for determining the critical failures level in the studied areas. The developed coefficient can be used as an alarm in case of imbalance of the production, which is caused by the increased failures level in production and production support processes in the period of the standardized functioning of the line.

Keywords: production failures, level of production losses, new production line implementation, assembly line, statistical process control

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Authors: Lucie Jirotková, Daniel Macek, Andrea Palazzo, Veronika Malinová

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Currently, the implementation of 3D models in the construction industry is gaining popularity. Countries around the world are developing their own modelling standards and implement the use of 3D models into their individual permitting processes. Another theme that needs to be addressed are public building spaces and their subsequent maintenance, where the usage of BIM methodology is directly offered. The significant benefit of the implementation of Building Information Management is the information transfer. The 3D model contains not only the spatial representation of the item shapes but also various parameters that are assigned to the individual elements, which are easily traceable, mainly because they are all stored in one place in the BIM model. However, it is important to keep the data in the models up to date to achieve useability of the model throughout the life cycle of the building. It is now becoming standard practice to use BIM models in the construction of buildings, however, the building environment is very often neglected. Especially in large-scale development projects, the public space of buildings is often forwarded to municipalities, which obtains the ownership and are in charge of its maintenance. A 3D model of the building surroundings would include both the above-ground visible elements of the development as well as the underground parts, such as the technological facilities of water features, electricity lines for public lighting, etc. The paper shows the possibilities of a model in the field of information for the handover of premises, the following maintenance and decision making. The attributes and spatial representation of the individual elements make the model a reliable foundation for the creation of "Smart Cities". The paper analyses the current use of the BIM methodology and presents the state-of-the-art possibilities of development.

Keywords: BIM model, urban space, BIM methodology, facility management

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Authors: Muhammad Abdullah, Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq, Faraz Ul Haq

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In developed countries, sustainability measures are widely accepted and acknowledged as crucial for addressing environmental concerns. Hydroponics, a soilless cultivation technique, has emerged as a potentially sustainable solution as it can reduce water consumption, land use, and environmental impacts. However, hydroponics may not be economically viable, especially when using reclaimed water, which may entail additional costs and risks. This study aims to address the critical question of whether hydroponics using reclaimed water can achieve a balance between sustainability and financial viability. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Cost (LCC) will be integrated to assess the potential of hydroponics whether it is environmentally sustainable and economically viable. Life cycle assessment, or LCA, is a methodology for assessing environmental impacts associated with all the stages of the life cycle of a commercial product, process, or service. While Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is an approach that assesses the total cost of an asset over its life cycle, including initial capital costs and maintenance costs. The expected benefits of this study include supporting evidence-based decision-making for policymakers, farmers, and stakeholders involved in agriculture. By quantifying environmental impacts and economic costs, this research will facilitate informed choices regarding the adoption of hydroponics with reclaimed water. It is believed that the outcomes of this research work will help to achieve a sustainable approach to agricultural production, aligning with sustainability goals while considering economic factors by adopting hydroponic technique.

Keywords: hydroponic, life cycle assessment, life cycle cost, sustainability

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Authors: Louis Nyahunda, Frans Koketso Matlakala, Jabulani Calvin Makhubele

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Climate change is among the most vital environmental aspects that the human community is endowed with. Climate as a factor of life is particularly strong to low income rural communities whose livelihoods heavily depend on rain-fed subsistence agriculture like Makonde communal lands. The purpose of social work within the context of climate change is to enhance community expertise and empower members for participation in the decision-making process through all stages of risk assessment, rescue, planning and intervention for recovery and preparedness. This paper sought to explore the role of social workers in mitigating the effects of climate change in Makonde communal lands of Zimbabwe. The objectives of the study were to identify what roles if any are social workers playing in mitigating the effects of climate change and if not, what are the impediments in that sphere. A qualitative research approach was followed within the traditional framework of descriptive and exploratory designs. Simple random, purposive and snowballing sampling techniques were used to gather twenty-five participants in the study. The Thematic Content Analysis was followed to analyse data inductively. The study found that Social Workers are not directly involved in climate change interventions in the Makonde area owing it to lack of training on climate change issues. The study recommends that climate change falls within the purview of the social work practice therefore social workers must take the lead in supporting families and communities affected by climate change following the values, knowledge base, skills and principles of the profession.

Keywords: role, social workers, mitigation, climate change, Makonde communal lands

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Authors: Tamar Trop, Ido Izhaki

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Small natural freshwater bodies (SNFWBs), which are vital for many waterbird species, are considered endangered habitats due to their progressive loss and extensive degradation. While SNFWBs are becoming extinct, studies have indicated that many waterbird species may greatly benefit from various types of small artificial waterbodies (SAWBs), such as floodwater and treated water reservoirs. If designed and managed with care, SAWBs hold significant potential to serve as alternative or complementary habitats for birds, and thus mitigate the adverse effects of SNFWBs loss. Currently, most reservoirs are built as infrastructural facilities and designed according to engineering best practices and site-specific considerations, which do not include catering for waterbirds' needs. Furthermore, as things stand, there is still a lack of clear and comprehensive knowledge regarding the additional factors that should be considered in tackling the challenge of attracting waterbirds' to reservoirs, without compromising on the reservoirs' original functions. This study attempts to narrow this knowledge gap by performing a systematic review of the various factors (e.g., bird attributes; physical, structural, spatial, climatic, chemical, and biological characteristics of the waterbody; and anthropogenic activities) affecting the occurrence, abundance, richness, and diversity of waterbirds in SNFWBs. The methodical review provides a concise and relatively unbiased synthesis of the knowledge in the field, which can inform decision-making and practice regarding the planning, design, and management of reservoirs with birds in mind. Such knowledge is especially beneficial for arid and semiarid areas, where natural water sources are deteriorating and becoming extinct even faster due to climate change.

Keywords: artificial waterbodies, reservoirs, small waterbodies, waterbirds

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Authors: Sahar S. Tabrizi, Dogan Ibrahim

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Cloud Computing is a convenient model for on-demand networks that uses shared pools of virtual configurable computing resources, such as servers, networks, storage devices, applications, etc. The cloud serves as an environment for companies and organizations to use infrastructure resources without making any purchases and they can access such resources wherever and whenever they need. Cloud computing is useful to overcome a number of problems in various Information Technology (IT) domains such as Geographical Information Systems (GIS), Scientific Research, e-Governance Systems, Decision Support Systems, ERP, Web Application Development, Mobile Technology, etc. Companies can use Cloud Computing services to store large amounts of data that can be accessed from anywhere on Earth and also at any time. Such services are rented by the client companies where the actual rent depends upon the amount of data stored on the cloud and also the amount of processing power used in a given time period. The resources offered by the cloud service companies are flexible in the sense that the user companies can increase or decrease their storage requirements or the processing power requirements at any time, thus minimizing the overall rental cost of the service they receive. In addition, the Cloud Computing service providers offer fast processors and applications software that can be shared by their clients. This is especially important for small companies with limited budgets which cannot afford to purchase their own expensive hardware and software. This paper is an overview of the Cloud Computing, giving its types, principles, advantages, and disadvantages. In addition, the paper gives some example engineering applications of Cloud Computing and makes suggestions for possible future applications in the field of engineering.

Keywords: cloud computing, cloud systems, cloud services, IaaS, PaaS, SaaS

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Authors: Udeh Nneka Evelyn

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The shortcomings of traditional costing system, in terms of validity, accuracy, consistency and relevance increased the need for modern management accounting system. ABC (Activity-Based Costing) can be used as a modern tool for planning, control and decision making for management. Past studies on activity-based costing (ABC) system have focused on manufacturing firms thereby making the studies on service firms scanty to some extent. This paper reviewed the application and relevance of activity-based costing techniques in service oriented business organisations by employing a qualitative research method which relied heavily on literature review of past and current relevant articles focusing on activity-based costing (ABC). Findings suggest that ABC is not only appropriate for use in a manufacturing environment; it is also most appropriate for service organizations such as financial institutions, the healthcare industry, and government organizations. In fact, some banking and financial institutions have been applying the concept for years under other names. One of them is unit costing, which is used to calculate the cost of banking services by determining the cost and consumption of each unit of output of functions required to deliver the service. ABC in very basic terms may provide very good payback for businesses. Some of the benefits that relate directly to the financial services industry are: Identification of the most profitable customers; more accurate product and service pricing; increase product profitability; well-organized process costs.

Keywords: profitability, activity-based costing (ABC), management accounting, manufacture

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Authors: Višnjica Vučetić, Mislav Anić, Jelena Bašić, Petra Sviličić, Ivana Tomašević

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The Agroclimatic Atlas of Croatia (Atlas) for the periods 1981–2010 and 1991–2020 is monograph of six chapters in digital form. Detailed descriptions of particular agroclimatological data are given in separate chapters as follows: agroclimatic indices based on air temperature (degree days, Huglin heliothermal index), soil temperature, water balance components (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, runoff, recharge and soil moisture loss) and fire weather indices. The last chapter is a description of the digital methods for the spatial interpolations (R and GIS). The Atlas comprises textual description of the relevant climate characteristic, maps of the spatial distribution of climatological elements at 109 stations (26 stations for soil temperature) and tables of the 30-year mean monthly, seasonal and annual values of climatological parameters at 24 stations. The Atlas was published in 2021, on the seventieth anniversary of the agrometeorology development at the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia. It is intended to support improvement of sustainable system of agricultural production and forest protection from fire and as a rich source of information for agronomic and forestry experts, but also for the decision-making bodies to use it for the development of strategic plans.

Keywords: agrometeorology, agroclimatic indices, soil temperature, water balance components, fire weather index, meteorological and hydrological service of Croatia

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Authors: Hui Min Kong, Rajalakshmi A/P Ganesan

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The present study was conducted to investigate the effect of gender differences in mate selection in a private university. Mate selection is an important process and decision to the people around the world, especially for single people. The future partner we have chosen could be our lifetime friend, supporter, and lover. Mate selection is important to us, but we have never fully understood the evolution of gender differences in mate selection. Besides, there was an insufficient empirical finding of gender differences in mate selection in Malaysia. Hence, the research would allow us to understand our feelings and thoughts about our future partners. The research null hypotheses have stated that there was no significant difference on 18 mate selections characteristics between males and females. A quantitative method was performed to test the hypotheses through independent t-test. There was a total of 373 heterosexual participants with the age range of 18 to 35 in the study. The instrument used was Factors in choosing a mate developed by Buss and Barnes (1986). Results indicated that females (M= 26.69) were found to be highly valued on refinement and neatness, good financial prospect, dependable character, emotional stability and maturity, desire for home and children, favorable social status or rating, similar religious background, ambition and industriousness, mutual attraction, good health and education and intelligence than males (M= 23.25). These results demonstrated that there were 61.11% significant gender differences in mate selections characteristics. Findings of this research have highlighted the importance of human mate selections in Malaysia. Further research is needed to identify the factors that could have a possible moderating effect of gender differences in mate selection.

Keywords: gender differences, mate selections, evolution, future partner

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Authors: Evangelos Tsakalos, Maria Kazantzaki, Eleni Filippaki, Yannis Bassiakos

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The coastal areas of the Mediterranean have been extensively affected by the transgressive event that followed the Last Glacial Maximum, with many studies conducted regarding the stratigraphic configuration of coastal sediments around the Mediterranean. The coastal zone of the Messologi area, western Greece, consists of low relief beaches containing low cliffs and eroded dunes, a fact which, in combination with the rising sea level and tectonic subsidence of the area, has led to substantial coastal. Coastal vulnerability assessment is a useful means of identifying areas of coastline that are vulnerable to impacts of climate change and coastal processes, highlighting potential problem areas. Commonly, coastal vulnerability assessment takes the form of an ‘index’ that quantifies the relative vulnerability along a coastline. Here we make use of the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) methodology by Thieler and Hammar-Klose, by considering geological features, coastal slope, relative sea-level change, shoreline erosion/accretion rates, and mean significant wave height as well as mean tide range to assess the present-day vulnerability of the coastal zone of Messologi area. In light of this, an impact assessment is performed under three different sea level rise scenarios, and adaptation measures to control climate change events are proposed. This study contributes toward coastal zone management practices in low-lying areas that have little data information, assisting decision-makers in adopting best adaptations options to overcome sea level rise impact on vulnerable areas similar to the coastal zone of Messologi.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, coastal erosion, sea level rise, GIS

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Authors: Rafael Alvarenga, Hubert Herbaux, Laurent Linguet

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The uncertainty concerning the power production of intermittent renewable energy is one of the main barriers to the integration of such assets into the power grid. Efforts have thus been made to develop methods to quantify this uncertainty, allowing producers to ensure more reliable and profitable engagements related to their future power delivery. Even though a diversity of probabilistic approaches was proposed in the literature giving promising results, the added value of adopting such methods for scheduling intermittent power plants is still unclear. In this study, the profits obtained by a decision-making model used to optimally schedule an existing PV power plant connected to batteries are compared when the model is fed with deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated with two of the most recent methods proposed in the literature. Moreover, deterministic forecasts with different accuracy levels were used in the experiments, testing the utility and the capability of probabilistic methods of modeling the progressively increasing uncertainty. Even though probabilistic approaches are unquestionably developed in the recent literature, the results obtained through a study case show that deterministic forecasts still provide the best performance if accurate, ensuring a gain of 14% on final profits compared to the average performance of probabilistic models conditioned to the same forecasts. When the accuracy of deterministic forecasts progressively decreases, probabilistic approaches start to become competitive options until they completely outperform deterministic forecasts when these are very inaccurate, generating 73% more profits in the case considered compared to the deterministic approach.

Keywords: PV power forecasting, uncertainty quantification, optimal scheduling, power systems

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Authors: Ernesto A. Lagarda-Leyva, Manuel A. Valenzuela L., José G. Oshima C., Arnulfo A. Naranjo-Flores

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From August to December of 2016, a diagnostic and strategic planning study was carried out on the supply chain of the company Agropecuaria GABO S.A. de C.V. The final product of the study was the development of the strategic plan and a project portfolio to meet the demands of the three links in the supply chain of the Roma tomato exported annually to the United States of America. In this project, the strategic objective of ensuring the proper handling of the product was selected and one of the goals associated with this was the employment of quantitative methods to support decision making. Considering the antecedents, the objective of this case study was to develop a model to analyze the behavioral dynamics in the distribution chain, from the logistics of storage and shipment of Roma tomato in 81-case pallets (11.5 kg per case), to the two pre-cooling rooms and eventual loading onto transports, seeking to reduce the bottleneck and the associated costs by means of a dynamic interface. The methodology used was that of system dynamics, considering four phases that were adapted to the purpose of the study: 1) the conceptualization phase; 2) the formulation phase; 3) the evaluation phase; and 4) the communication phase. The main practical conclusions lead to the possibility of reducing both the bottlenecks in the cooling rooms and the costs by simulating scenarios and modifying certain policies. Furthermore, the creation of the dynamic interface between the model and the stakeholders was achieved by generating interaction with buttons and simple instructions that allow making modifications and observing diverse behaviors.

Keywords: agrilogistics, distribution, scenarios, system dynamics

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Authors: S. Mamoucha, N.Tsafantakis, T. Ioannidis, S. Chatzipanagiotou, C. Nikolaou, L. Skaltsounis, N. Fokialakis, N. Christodoulakis

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Introduction: Pistacia lentiscus L. (well known as Mastic tree) is an evergreen sclerophyllous shrub that extensively thrives in the eastern Mediterranean area yet only the trees cultivated in the southern region of the Greek island Chios produces mastic resin. Different parts of P. lentiscus L. var. chia have been used in folk medicine for various purposes, such as tonic, aphrodisiac, antiseptic, antihypertensive and management of dental, gastrointestinal, liver, urinary, and respiratory tract disorders. Several studies have focused on the antibacterial activity of its resin (gum) and its essential oil. However, there is no study combining anatomy of the plant organs, phytochemical profile, and antibacterial screening of the plant. In our attempt to discover novel bioactive metabolites from the mastic tree, we screened its antibacterial activity not only against ATCC strains but also against clinical, resistant strains. Materials-methods: Leaves were investigated using Transmission (ΤΕΜ) and Scanning Εlectron Microscopy (SEM). Histochemical tests were performed on fresh and fixed tissue. Extracts prepared from dried, powdered leaves using 3 different solvents (DCM, MeOH and H2O) the waste water obtained after a hydrodistillation process for essential oil production were screened for their phytochemical content and antibacterial activity. Μetabolite profiling of polar and non-polar extracts was recorded by GC-MS and LC-HRMS techniques and analyzed using in-house and commercial libraries. The antibacterial screening was performed against Staphylococcus aureus ATCC25923, Escherichia coli ATCC25922, Pseudomonas aeruginosa ATCC27853 and against clinical, resistant strains Methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA), Carbapenem-Resistant Metallo-β-Lactamase (carbapenemase) P. aeruginosa (VIM), Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemases (KPCs) and Acinetobacter baumanii resistant strains. The antibacterial activity was tested by the Kirby Bauer and the Agar Well Diffusion method. The zone of inhibition (ZI) of each extract was measured and compared with those of common antibiotics. Results: Leaf is compact with inosclereids and numerous idioblasts containing a globular, spiny crystal. The major nerves of the leaf contain a resin duct. Mesophyll cells showed accumulation of osmiophillic metabolites. Histochemical treatments defined secondary metabolites in subcellular localization. The phytochemical investigation revealed the presence of a large number of secondary metabolites, belonging to different chemical groups, such as terpenoids, phenolic compounds (mainly myricetin, kaempferol and quercetin glycosides), phenolic, and fatty acids. Among the extracts, the hydrostillation wastewater achieved the best results against most of the bacteria tested. MRSA, VIM and A. baumanii were inhibited. Conclusion: Extracts from plants have recently been of great interest with respect to their antimicrobial activity. Their use emerged from a growing tendency to replace synthetic antimicrobial agents with natural ones. Leaves of P. lentiscus L. var. chia showed a high antimicrobial activity even against drug - resistant bacteria. Future prospects concern the better understanding of mode of action of the antibacterial activity, the isolation of the most bioactive constituents and the clarification if the activity is related to a single compound or to the synergistic effect of several ones.

Keywords: antibacterial screening, leaf anatomy, phytochemical profile, Pistacia lentiscus var. chia

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Authors: Catalina Albornoz, Giacomo Barbieri

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Crop monitoring has shown to reduce vulnerability to spreading plagues and pathologies in crops. Remote sensing with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has made crop monitoring more precise, cost-efficient and accessible. Nowadays, remote monitoring involves calculating maps of vegetation indices by using different software that takes either Truecolor (RGB) or multispectral images as an input. These maps are then used to segment the crop into management zones. Finally, knowing the spectral signature of a crop (the reflected radiation as a function of wavelength) can be used as an input for decision-making and crop characterization. The calculation of vegetation indices using software such as Pix4D has high precision for monoculture plantations. However, this paper shows that using this software on mixed crops may lead to errors resulting in an incorrect segmentation of the field. Within this work, authors propose to filter all the elements different from the main crop before the calculation of vegetation indices and the spectral signature. A filter based on the Sobel method for border detection is used for filtering a coffee crop. Results show that segmentation into management zones changes with respect to the traditional situation in which a filter is not applied. In particular, it is shown how the values of the spectral signature change in up to 17% per spectral band. Future work will quantify the benefits of filtering through the comparison between in situ measurements and the calculated vegetation indices obtained through remote sensing.

Keywords: coffee, filtering, mixed crop, precision agriculture, remote sensing, spectral signature

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Authors: Chinonso Jude Ugwu

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This study examines education as a global business, primarily focusing on the boom of college students worldwide. It adopts a mixed-technique approach, using primary and secondary data sources. Primary data was obtained using questionnaires and interviews focusing on international college students, academic staff, and recruitment corporations from pre-determined universities in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. The secondary information was collected from relevant literature, professional reports, and databases. The study ascertained that the boom in worldwide college students is a huge trend within the training enterprise, arising primarily from the growing call for better education worldwide. The studies additionally found that different factors are responsible for the decision of international students to consider studying abroad, such as high schooling satisfaction, cultural exposure, professional opportunities, and the popularity of universities. Furthermore, the study highlights the challenges college students face worldwide, including economic difficulties, social and cultural adjustments, and visa regulations. Based on the findings, the study concludes that Education as a Global Business is a profitable enterprise with substantial potential. However, universities and governments should handle global college students’ demanding situations by creating welcoming surroundings promoting diversity and inclusivity. The study recommends that universities put money into programs and offerings that assist worldwide college students’ welfare. Governments should ease visa regulations to inspire more extraordinary worldwide college students to observe abroad.

Keywords: education, business, profitability, global students

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: M. Aghili, S. Tabarestani, C. Freytes, M. Shojaie, M. Cabrerizo, A. Barreto, N. Rishe, R. E. Curiel, D. Loewenstein, R. Duara, M. Adjouadi

Abstract:

A major challenge in medical studies, especially those that are longitudinal, is the problem of missing measurements which hinders the effective application of many machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, recent Alzheimer's Disease studies have focused on the delineation of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment (EMCI) and Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI) from cognitively normal controls (CN) which is essential for developing effective and early treatment methods. To address the aforementioned challenges, this paper explores the potential of using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm in handling missing values in multiclass classification. We seek a generalized classification scheme where all prodromal stages of the disease are considered simultaneously in the classification and decision-making processes. Given the large number of subjects (1631) included in this study and in the presence of almost 28% missing values, we investigated the performance of XGBoost on the classification of the four classes of AD, NC, EMCI, and LMCI. Using 10-fold cross validation technique, XGBoost is shown to outperform other state-of-the-art classification algorithms by 3% in terms of accuracy and F-score. Our model achieved an accuracy of 80.52%, a precision of 80.62% and recall of 80.51%, supporting the more natural and promising multiclass classification.

Keywords: eXtreme gradient boosting, missing data, Alzheimer disease, early mild cognitive impairment, late mild cognitive impair, multiclass classification, ADNI, support vector machine, random forest

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Authors: Feng Li, Qian Peng

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The mass start speed skating (MSSS) is a new event for the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics and will be an official race for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. Considering that the event rankings were based on points gained on laps, it is worthwhile to investigate the pacing behavior on each lap that directly influences the ranking of the race. The aim of this study was to detect the pacing behavior and performance on MSSS regarding skaters’ level (SL), competition stage (semi-final/final) (CS) and gender (G). All the men's and women's races in the World Cup and World Championships were analyzed in the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 seasons. As a result, a total of 601 skaters from 36 games were observed. ANOVA for repeated measures was applied to compare the pacing behavior on each lap, and the three-way ANOVA for repeated measures was used to identify the influence of SL, CS, and G on pacing behavior and total time spent. In general, the results showed that the pacing behavior from fast to slow were cluster 1—laps 4, 8, 12, 15, 16, cluster 2—laps 5, 9, 13, 14, cluster 3—laps 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, and cluster 4—laps 1 and 2 (p=0.000). For CS, the total time spent in the final was less than the semi-final (p=0.000). For SL, top-level skaters spent less total time than the middle-level and low-level (p≤0.002), while there was no significant difference between the middle-level and low-level (p=0.214). For G, the men’s skaters spent less total time than women on all laps (p≤0.048). This study could help to coach staff better understand the pacing behavior regarding SL, CS, and G, further providing references concerning promoting the pacing strategy and decision making before and during the race.

Keywords: performance analysis, pacing strategy, winning strategy, winter Olympics

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Authors: Sumra Siddique Abbasi, Cheng Shikun

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Biogas technology has rapidly developed in agriculture sector to upgrade and improve the life of farmers by providing them alternative and cost-effective energy source. Main purpose of this study is to understand the advantages of biogas plants by livestock owners either they are household-based livestock owners or may own farms for livestock. Similarly, a pertinent and major purpose of this research is to examine the factors affecting the decision to adopt biogas technologies at the household level. Based on the result, both public and private sector organization can make decisions related to the installation of biogas projects. Biogas is major energy source which can be used as an alternative and renewable energy source. This energy production technology can contribute in uplifting the lifestyle of farmers and can contribute into sustainable development of rural communities in Pakistan. People with livestock in any community in Pakistan can get benefit from biogas plants and it will contribute in sustainable development program which generates socio economic benefits, heath upgradation, cost effective energy source and positive impact on climate change or environmental issues. This study was conductive using survey method and descriptive analysis. One hundred fifty (150) farmers were the respondents who participated in survey. These farmers were from Layyah district of Punjab and were selected using snowball sampling technique. To generate the results, SPSS tool was used for data analysis.

Keywords: biogas plant, animal dunk, renewable energy, pakistan

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Authors: Omar Alzeley, Sergey Utev

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Minimizing a constrained multivariate function is the fundamental of Machine learning, and these algorithms are at the core of data mining and data visualization techniques. The decision function that maps input points to output points is based on the result of optimization. This optimization is the central of learning theory. One approach to complex systems where the dynamics of the system is inferred by a statistical analysis of the fluctuations in time of some associated observable is time series analysis. The purpose of this paper is a mathematical transition from the autoregressive model of classical time series to the matrix formalization of quantum theory. Firstly, we have proposed a quantum time series model (QTS). Although Hamiltonian technique becomes an established tool to detect a deterministic chaos, other approaches emerge. The quantum probabilistic technique is used to motivate the construction of our QTS model. The QTS model resembles the quantum dynamic model which was applied to financial data. Secondly, various statistical methods, including machine learning algorithms such as the Kalman filter algorithm, are applied to estimate and analyses the unknown parameters of the model. Finally, simulation techniques such as Markov chain Monte Carlo have been used to support our investigations. The proposed model has been examined by using real and simulated data. We establish the relation between quantum statistical machine and quantum time series via random matrix theory. It is interesting to note that the primary focus of the application of QTS in the field of quantum chaos was to find a model that explain chaotic behaviour. Maybe this model will reveal another insight into quantum chaos.

Keywords: machine learning, simulation techniques, quantum probability, tensor product, time series

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Authors: Novie Nuraini, Sari Hanifa, Yetty Ramli

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Chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH) is a common condition after head trauma. Although the size of the thickness of cSDH has an important role in the decision to perform surgery, but the size limit of the thickness is not absolute. In this serial case report, we evaluate three case report of cSDH that indicated to get the surgical procedure because of deficit neurologic and neuroimaging finding with subfalcine herniation more than 0.5 cm and hematoma thickness more than one cm. On the first case, the patient got evacuation hematoma procedure, but the second and third case, we did nonsurgical treatment because the patient and family refused to do the operation. We did the conservative treatment with bed rest and mannitol. Serial radiologic evaluation is done when we found worsening condition. We also reevaluated radiologic examination two weeks after the treatment. The results in this serial case report, the first and second case have a good outcome. On the third case, there was a worsening condition, which in this patient there was a comorbid with type two diabetic mellitus, pneumonie and chronic kidney disease. Some conservative treatment such as bed rest, corticosteroid, mannitol or the other hyperosmolar has a good outcome in patient without neurologic deficits, small hematoma, and or patient without comorbid disease. Evacuate hematome is the best choice in cSDH treatment with deficit neurologic finding. Afterall, there is some condition that we can not do the surgical procedure. Serial radiologic examination needed after two weeks to evaluate the treatment or if there is any worsening condition.

Keywords: chronic subdural hematoma, traumatic brain injury, surgical treatment, nonsurgical treatment, outcome

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Authors: Malay Kumar Pramanik

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Climate change induced sea level rise increases storm surge, erosion, and inundation, which are stirred by an intricate interplay of physical environmental components at the coastal region. The Mumbai coast is much vulnerable to accelerated regional sea level change due to its highly dense population, highly developed economy, and low topography. To determine the significant causes behind coastal vulnerability, this study analyzes four different iterations of CVI by incorporating the pixel-based differentially weighted rank values of the selected five geological (CVI5), three physical (CVI8 with including geological variables), and four socio-economic variables (CVI4). However, CVI5 and CVI8 results yielded broadly similar natures, but after including socio-economic variables (CVI4), the results CVI (CVI12) has been changed at Mumbai and Kurla coastal portion that indicates the study coastal areas are mostly sensible with socio-economic variables. Therefore, the results of CVI12 show that out of 274.1 km of coastline analyzed, 55.83 % of the coast is very low vulnerable, 60.91 % of the coast is moderately vulnerable while 50.75 % is very high vulnerable. Finding also admits that in the context of growing urban population and the increasing rate of economic activities, socio-economic variables are most important variable to use for validating and testing the CVI. Finally, some recommendations are presented for concerned decision makers and stakeholders to develop appropriate coastal management plans, nourishment projects and mitigation measures considering socio-economic variables.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, sea level change, Mumbai coast, geospatial approach, coastal management, climate change

Procedia PDF Downloads 110