Search results for: Whittle estimator

Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

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In this paper, we propose the variational EM inference algorithm for the multi-class Gaussian process classification model that can be used in the field of human behavior recognition. This algorithm can drive simultaneously both a posterior distribution of a latent function and estimators of hyper-parameters in a Gaussian process classification model with multiclass. Our algorithm is based on the Laplace approximation (LA) technique and variational EM framework. This is performed in two steps: called expectation and maximization steps. First, in the expectation step, using the Bayesian formula and LA technique, we derive approximately the posterior distribution of the latent function indicating the possibility that each observation belongs to a certain class in the Gaussian process classification model. Second, in the maximization step, using a derived posterior distribution of latent function, we compute the maximum likelihood estimator for hyper-parameters of a covariance matrix necessary to define prior distribution for latent function. These two steps iteratively repeat until a convergence condition satisfies. Moreover, we apply the proposed algorithm with human action classification problem using a public database, namely, the KTH human action data set. Experimental results reveal that the proposed algorithm shows good performance on this data set.

Keywords: Bayesian rule, Gaussian process classification model with multiclass, Gaussian process prior, human action classification, laplace approximation, variational EM algorithm.

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Authors: H K Lakshminarayana, J S Bhat, H M Mahesh

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A new estimator for evolutionary spectrum (ES) based on short time Fourier transform (STFT) and modified group delay function (MGDF) by signal decomposition (SD) is proposed. The STFT due to its built-in averaging, suppresses the cross terms and the MGDF preserves the frequency resolution of the rectangular window with the reduction in the Gibbs ripple. The present work overcomes the magnitude distortion observed in multi-component non-stationary signals with STFT and MGDF estimation of ES using SD. The SD is achieved either through discrete cosine transform based harmonic wavelet transform (DCTHWT) or perfect reconstruction filter banks (PRFB). The MGDF also improves the signal to noise ratio by removing associated noise. The performance of the present method is illustrated for cross chirp and frequency shift keying (FSK) signals, which indicates that its performance is better than STFT-MGDF (STFT-GD) alone. Further its noise immunity is better than STFT. The SD based methods, however cannot bring out the frequency transition path from band to band clearly, as there will be gap in the contour plot at the transition. The PRFB based STFT-SD shows good performance than DCTHWT decomposition method for STFT-GD.

Keywords: Evolutionary Spectrum, Modified Group Delay, Discrete Cosine Transform, Harmonic Wavelet Transform, Perfect Reconstruction Filter Banks, Short Time Fourier Transform.

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Authors: Radha Krishan, Deepak Khare, Bhaskar R. Nikam, Ayush Chandrakar

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Every irrigation project is planned considering long-term historical climatic conditions; however, the prompt climatic shift and change has come out with such circumstances which were inconceivable in the past. Considering this fact, scrutiny of rainfall and temperature trend has been carried out over the command area of Eastern Ganga Canal project for pre-climate shift period and post-climate shift periods in the present study. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s methods have been applied to study the trends in annual rainfall, seasonal rainfall, annual rainy day, monsoonal rainy days, average annual temperature and seasonal temperature. The results showed decreasing trend of 48.11 to 42.17 mm/decade in annual rainfall and 79.78 tSo 49.67 mm/decade in monsoon rainfall in pre-climate to post-climate shift periods, respectively. The decreasing trend of 1 to 4 days/decade has been observed in annual rainy days from pre-climate to post-climate shift period. Trends in temperature revealed that there were significant decreasing trends in annual (-0.03 ºC/yr), Kharif (-0.02 ºC/yr), Rabi (-0.04 ºC/yr) and summer (-0.02 ºC/yr) season temperature during pre-climate shift period, whereas the significant increasing trend (0.02 ºC/yr) has been observed in all the four parameters during post climate shift period. These results will help project managers in understanding the climate shift and lead them to develop alternative water management strategies.

Keywords: Climate shift, Rainfall trend, temperature trend, Mann-Kendall test, Sen slope estimator, Eastern Ganga Canal command.

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Authors: Joonas Pääkkönen

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In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

Keywords: Fenton-Wilkinson approximation, German tank problem, log-normal distribution, order statistics, ordinal regression, orienteering, sports analytics, sports modeling.

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Authors: Venkatesh Kumar, Kasun Hewage, Rehan Sadiq

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Residential buildings consume significant amounts of energy and produce large amount of emissions and waste. However, there is a substantial potential for energy savings in this sector which needs to be evaluated over the life cycle of residential buildings. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology has been employed to study the primary energy uses and associated environmental impacts of different phases (i.e., product, construction, use, end of life, and beyond building life) for residential buildings. Four different alternatives of residential buildings in Vancouver (BC, Canada) with a 50-year lifespan have been evaluated, including High Rise Apartment (HRA), Low Rise Apartment (LRA), Single family Attached House (SAH), and Single family Detached House (SDH). Life cycle performance of the buildings is evaluated for embodied energy, embodied environmental impacts, operational energy, operational environmental impacts, total life-cycle energy, and total life cycle environmental impacts. Estimation of operational energy and LCA are performed using DesignBuilder software and Athena Impact estimator software respectively. The study results revealed that over the life span of the buildings, the relationship between the energy use and the environmental impacts are identical. LRA is found to be the best alternative in terms of embodied energy use and embodied environmental impacts; while, HRA showed the best life-cycle performance in terms of minimum energy use and environmental impacts. Sensitivity analysis has also been carried out to study the influence of building service lifespan over 50, 75, and 100 years on the relative significance of embodied energy and total life cycle energy. The life-cycle energy requirements for SDH are found to be a significant component among the four types of residential buildings. The overall disclose that the primary operations of these buildings accounts for 90% of the total life cycle energy which far outweighs minor differences in embodied effects between the buildings.

Keywords: Building simulation, environmental impacts, life cycle assessment, life cycle energy analysis, residential buildings.

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

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Hydroclimatic observation values ​​are used in the planning of the project of water resources. Climate variables are the first of the values ​​used in planning projects. At the same time, the climate system is a complex and interactive system involving the atmosphere, land surfaces, snow and bubbles, the oceans and other water structures. The amount and distribution of precipitation, which is an important climate parameter, is a limiting environmental factor for dispersed living things. Trend analysis is applied to the detection of the presence of a pattern or trend in the data set. Many trends work in different parts of the world are usually made for the determination of climate change. The detection and attribution of past trends and variability in climatic variables is essential for explaining potential future alteration resulting from anthropogenic activities. Parametric and non-parametric tests are used for determining the trends in climatic variables. In this study, trend tests were applied to annual total precipitation data obtained in period of 1972 and 2012, in the Konya Basin. Non-parametric trend tests, (Sen’s T, Spearman’s Rho, Mann-Kendal, Sen’s T trend, Wald-Wolfowitz) and parametric test (mean square) were applied to annual total precipitations of 15 stations for trend analysis. The linear slopes (change per unit time) of trends are calculated by using a non-parametric estimator developed by Sen. The beginning of trends is determined by using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test. In addition, homogeneities in precipitation trends are tested by using a method developed by Van Belle and Hughes. As a result of tests, negative linear slopes were found in annual total precipitations in Konya.

Keywords: Trend analysis, precipitation, hydroclimatology, Konya, Turkey.

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Authors: Hijun Kim, Jungkeun Sung, Seungwoo Kim

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In this paper, a Smart Home Service Robot, McBot II, which performs mess-cleanup function etc. in house, is designed much more optimally than other service robots. It is newly developed in much more practical system than McBot I which we had developed two years ago. One characteristic attribute of mobile platforms equipped with a set of dependent wheels is their omni- directionality and the ability to realize complex translational and rotational trajectories for agile navigation in door. An accurate coordination of steering angle and spinning rate of each wheel is necessary for a consistent motion. This paper develops trajectory controller of 3-wheels omni-directional mobile robot using fuzzy azimuth estimator. A specialized anthropomorphic robot manipulator which can be attached to the housemaid robot McBot II, is developed in this paper. This built-in type manipulator consists of both arms with 3 DOF (Degree of Freedom) each and both hands with 3 DOF each. The robotic arm is optimally designed to satisfy both the minimum mechanical size and the maximum workspace. Minimum mass and length are required for the built-in cooperated-arms system. But that makes the workspace so small. This paper proposes optimal design method to overcome the problem by using neck joint to move the arms horizontally forward/backward and waist joint to move them vertically up/down. The robotic hand, which has two fingers and a thumb, is also optimally designed in task-based concept. Finally, the good performance of the developed McBot II is confirmed through live tests of the mess-cleanup task.

Keywords: Holonomic Omni-wheeled Mobile Robot, Special-purpose, Manipulation, Home Service Robot

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Authors: Rafael Muñoz, Juan Melchor, Alicia Valera, Laura Peralta, Guillermo Rus

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A torsional piezoelectric ultrasonic transducer design is proposed to measure shear moduli in soft tissue with direct access availability, using shear wave elastography technique. The measurement of shear moduli of tissues is a challenging problem, mainly derived from a) the difficulty of isolating a pure shear wave, given the interference of multiple waves of different types (P, S, even guided) emitted by the transducers and reflected in geometric boundaries, and b) the highly attenuating nature of soft tissular materials. An immediate application, overcoming these drawbacks, is the measurement of changes in cervix stiffness to estimate the gestational age at delivery. The design has been optimized using a finite element model (FEM) and a semi-analytical estimator of the probability of detection (POD) to determine a suitable geometry, materials and generated waves. The technique is based on the time of flight measurement between emitter and receiver, to infer shear wave velocity. Current research is centered in prototype testing and validation. The geometric optimization of the transducer was able to annihilate the compressional wave emission, generating a quite pure shear torsional wave. Currently, mechanical and electromagnetic coupling between emitter and receiver signals are being the research focus. Conclusions: the design overcomes the main described problems. The almost pure shear torsional wave along with the short time of flight avoids the possibility of multiple wave interference. This short propagation distance reduce the effect of attenuation, and allow the emission of very low energies assuring a good biological security for human use.

Keywords: Cervix ripening, preterm birth, shear modulus, shear wave elastography, soft tissue, torsional wave.

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Authors: O. S. Ebrahim, K. O. Shawky, M. O. Ebrahim, P. K. Jain

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Induction Motor (IM) driving pump is the main consumer of electricity in a typical fluid transportation system (FTS). Changing the connection of the stator windings from delta to star at no load can achieve noticeable active and reactive energy savings. This paper proposes a supervisory hysteresis liquid-level control with three-state energy saving mode (ESM) for IM in FTS including storage tank. The IM pump drive comprises modified star/delta switch and hydromantic coupler. Three-state ESM is defined, along with the normal running, and named analog to computer ESMs as follows: Sleeping mode in which the motor runs at no load with delta stator connection, hibernate mode in which the motor runs at no load with a star connection, and motor shutdown is the third energy saver mode. A logic flow-chart is synthesized to select the motor state at no-load for best energetic cost reduction, considering the motor thermal capacity used. An artificial neural network (ANN) state estimator, based on the recurrent architecture, is constructed and learned in order to provide fault-tolerant capability for the supervisory controller. Sequential test of Wald is used for sensor fault detection. Theoretical analysis, preliminary experimental testing and, computer simulations are performed to show the effectiveness of the proposed control in terms of reliability, power quality and energy/coenergy cost reduction with the suggestion of power factor correction.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, ANN, Energy Saving Mode, ESM, Induction Motor, IM, star/delta switch, supervisory control, fluid transportation, reliability, power quality.

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Authors: O. S. Ebrahim, K. O. Shawky, M. A. Badr, P. K. Jain

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This paper proposes an intelligent, supervisory, hysteresis liquid-level control with three-state energy saving mode (ESM) for induction motor (IM) in fluid transportation system (FTS) including storage tank. The IM pump drive comprises a modified star/delta switch and hydromantic coupler. Three-state ESM is defined, along with the normal running, and named analog to the computer’s ESMs as follows: Sleeping mode in which the motor runs at no load with delta stator connection, hibernate mode in which the motor runs at no load with a star connection, and motor shutdown is the third energy saver mode. Considering the motor’s thermal capacity used (TCU) and grid-compatible tariff structure, a logic flow-chart is synthesized to select the motor state at no-load for best energetic cost reduction. Fuzzy-logic (FL) based availability assessment is designed and deployed on cloud, in order to provide mobilized service for the star/delta switch and highly reliable contactors. Moreover, an artificial neural network (ANN) state estimator, based on the recurrent architecture, is constructed and learned in order to provide fault-tolerant capability for the supervisory controller. Sequential test of Wald is used for sensor fault detection. Theoretical analysis, preliminary experimental testing and computer simulations are performed to demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed control system in terms of reliability, power quality and operational cost reduction with a motivation of power factor correction.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, ANN, Contactor Health Assessment, Energy Saving Mode, Induction Machine, IM, Supervisory Control, Fluid Transportation, Fuzzy Logic, FL, cloud computing, pumped storage.

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Authors: Carolina B. Baguio

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One of the purposes of the robust method of estimation is to reduce the influence of outliers in the data, on the estimates. The outliers arise from gross errors or contamination from distributions with long tails. The trimmed mean is a robust estimate. This means that it is not sensitive to violation of distributional assumptions of the data. It is called an adaptive estimate when the trimming proportion is determined from the data rather than being fixed a “priori-. The main objective of this study is to find out the robustness properties of the adaptive trimmed means in terms of efficiency, high breakdown point and influence function. Specifically, it seeks to find out the magnitude of the trimming proportion of the adaptive trimmed mean which will yield efficient and robust estimates of the parameter for data which follow a modified Weibull distribution with parameter λ = 1/2 , where the trimming proportion is determined by a ratio of two trimmed means defined as the tail length. Secondly, the asymptotic properties of the tail length and the trimmed means are also investigated. Finally, a comparison is made on the efficiency of the adaptive trimmed means in terms of the standard deviation for the trimming proportions and when these were fixed a “priori". The asymptotic tail lengths defined as the ratio of two trimmed means and the asymptotic variances were computed by using the formulas derived. While the values of the standard deviations for the derived tail lengths for data of size 40 simulated from a Weibull distribution were computed for 100 iterations using a computer program written in Pascal language. The findings of the study revealed that the tail lengths of the Weibull distribution increase in magnitudes as the trimming proportions increase, the measure of the tail length and the adaptive trimmed mean are asymptotically independent as the number of observations n becomes very large or approaching infinity, the tail length is asymptotically distributed as the ratio of two independent normal random variables, and the asymptotic variances decrease as the trimming proportions increase. The simulation study revealed empirically that the standard error of the adaptive trimmed mean using the ratio of tail lengths is relatively smaller for different values of trimming proportions than its counterpart when the trimming proportions were fixed a 'priori'.

Keywords: Adaptive robust estimate, asymptotic efficiency, breakdown point, influence function, L-estimates, location parameter, tail length, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: O. S. Ebrahim, K. O. Shawky, M. A. Badr, P. K. Jain

Abstract:

This paper describes an efficient; low-cost; high-availability; induction motor (IM) drive system with intelligent supervisory control for water distribution networks including storage tank. To increase the operational efficiency and reduce cost, the IM drive system includes main pumping unit and an auxiliary voltage source inverter (VSI) fed unit. The main unit comprises smart star/delta starter, regenerative fluid clutch, switched VAR compensator, and hysteresis liquid-level controller. Three-state energy saving mode (ESM) is defined at no-load and a logic algorithm is developed for best energetic cost reduction. To reduce voltage sag, the supervisory controller operates the switched VAR compensator upon motor starting. To provide smart star/delta starter at low cost, a method based on current sensing is developed for interlocking, malfunction detection, and life–cycles counting and used to synthesize an improved fuzzy logic (FL) based availability assessment scheme. Furthermore, a recurrent neural network (RNN) full state estimator is proposed to provide sensor fault-tolerant algorithm for the feedback control. The auxiliary unit is working at low flow rates and improves the system efficiency and flexibility for distributed generation during islanding mode. Compared with doubly-fed IM, the proposed one ensures 30% working throughput under main motor/pump fault conditions, higher efficiency, and marginal cost difference. This is critically important in case of water networks. Theoretical analysis, computer simulations, cost study, as well as efficiency evaluation, using timely cascaded energy-conservative systems, are performed on IM experimental setup to demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed drive and control.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, ANN, Availability Assessment, Cloud Computing, Energy Saving, Induction Machine, IM, Supervisory Control, Fuzzy Logic, FL, Pumped Storage.

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