Search results for: Statistics South Africa.

Authors: L. R. Valencia Pérez, J. M. Peña Aguilar, A. Lamadrid Álvarez, A. Pastrana Palma, H. F. Valencia Pérez, M. Vivanco Vargas

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This work proposes a Cooperation-Competitive (Coopetitive) approach that allows coordinated work among the Secretary of Public Education (SEP), the Autonomous University of Querétaro (UAQ) and government funds from National Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT) or some other international organizations. To work on an overall knowledge transfer strategy with e-learning over the Cloud, where experts in junior high and high school education, working in multidisciplinary teams, perform analysis, evaluation, design, production, validation and knowledge transfer at large scale using a Cloud Computing platform. Allowing teachers and students to have all the information required to ensure a homologated nationally knowledge of topics such as mathematics, statistics, chemistry, history, ethics, civism, etc. This work will start with a pilot test in Spanish and initially in two regional dialects Otomí and Náhuatl. Otomí has more than 285,000 speaking indigenes in Queretaro and Mexico´s central region. Náhuatl is number one indigenous dialect spoken in Mexico with more than 1,550,000 indigenes. The phase one of the project takes into account negotiations with indigenous tribes from different regions, and the Information and Communication technologies to deliver the knowledge to the indigenous schools in their native dialect. The methodology includes the following main milestones: Identification of the indigenous areas where Otomí and Náhuatl are the spoken dialects, research with the SEP the location of actual indigenous schools, analysis and inventory or current schools conditions, negotiation with tribe chiefs, analysis of the technological communication requirements to reach the indigenous communities, identification and inventory of local teachers technology knowledge, selection of a pilot topic, analysis of actual student competence with traditional education system, identification of local translators, design of the e-learning platform, design of the multimedia resources and storage strategy for “Cloud Computing”, translation of the topic to both dialects, Indigenous teachers training, pilot test, course release, project follow up, analysis of student requirements for the new technological platform, definition of a new and improved proposal with greater reach in topics and regions. Importance of phase one of the project is multiple, it includes the proposal of a working technological scheme, focusing in the cultural impact in Mexico so that indigenous tribes can improve their knowledge about new forms of crop improvement, home storage technologies, proven home remedies for common diseases, ways of preparing foods containing major nutrients, disclose strengths and weaknesses of each region, communicating through cloud computing platforms offering regional products and opening communication spaces for inter-indigenous cultural exchange.

Keywords: Mexicans indigenous tribes, education, knowledge transfer, cloud computing, Otomí, Náhuatl, language.

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Authors: Ali Reza Vaezi, Ouldouz Bakhshi Rad

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Gully erosion is a widespread and often dramatic form of soil erosion caused by water during and immediately after heavy rainfall. It occurs when flowing surface water is channelled across unprotected land and washes away the soil along the drainage lines. The formation of gully is influenced by various factors, including climate, drainage surface area, slope gradient, vegetation cover, land use, and soil properties. It is a very important problem in semi-arid regions, where soils have lower organic matter and are weakly aggregated. Intensive agriculture and tillage along the slope can accelerate soil erosion by water in the region. There is little information on the development of gully erosion in agricultural rainfed areas. Therefore, this study was carried out to investigate the relationship between gully erosion and morphometric characteristics of the drainage area and the effects of soil properties and soil management factors (land use and tillage method) on gully development. A field study was done in a 900 km2 agricultural area in Hshtroud township located in the south of East Azerbaijan province, NW Iran. Toward this, 222 gullies created in rainfed lands were found in the area. Some properties of gullies, consisting of length, width, depth, height difference, cross section area, and volume, were determined. Drainage areas for each or some gullies were determined, and their boundaries were drawn. Additionally, the surface area of each drainage, land use, tillage direction, and soil properties that may affect gully formation were determined. The soil erodibility factor (K) defined in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) was estimated based on five soil properties (silt and very fine sand, coarse sand, organic matter, soil structure code, and soil permeability). Gully development in each drainage area was quantified using its volume and soil loss. The dependency of gully development on drainage area characteristics (surface area, land use, tillage direction, and soil properties) was determined using correlation matrix analysis. Based on the results, gully length was the most important morphometric characteristic indicating the development of gully erosion in the lands. Gully development in the area was related to slope gradient (r = -0.26), surface area (r = 0.71), the area of rainfed lands (r = 0.23), and the area of rainfed tilled along the slope (r = 0.24). Nevertheless, its correlation with the area of pasture and soil erodibility factor (K) was not significant. Among the characteristics of drainage area, surface area is the major factor controlling gully volume in the agricultural land. No significant correlation was found between gully erosion and soil erodibility factor (K) estimated by the USLE. It seems the estimated soil erodibility cannot describe the susceptibility of the study soils to the gully erosion process. In these soils, aggregate stability and soil permeability are the two soil physical properties that affect the actual soil erodibility and in consequence, these soil properties can control gully erosion in the rainfed lands. 

Keywords: Agricultural area, gully properties, soil structure, USLE, Universal Soil Loss Equation.

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Authors: Karishma Kashyap, Subha D. Parida

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Rapid population growth and urbanization is creating pressure throughout the world. This has a dramatic effect on a lot of elements which include water, food, transportation, energy, infrastructure etc. as few of the key services. Built environment sector is growing concurrently to meet the needs of urbanization. Due to such large scale development of buildings, there is a need for them to be monitored and managed efficiently. Along with appropriate management, climate adaptation is highly crucial as well because buildings are one of the major sources of greenhouse gas emission in their operation phase. Buildings to be adaptive need to provide a triple bottom approach to sustainability i.e., being socially, environmentally and economically sustainable. Hence, in order to deliver these sustainability outcomes, there is a growing understanding and thrive towards switching to green buildings or renovating new ones as per green standards wherever possible. Academic institutions in particular have been following this trend globally. This is highly significant as universities usually have high occupancy rates because they manage a large building portfolio. Also, as universities accommodate the future generation of architects, policy makers etc., they have the potential of setting themselves as a best industry practice model for research and innovation for the rest to follow. Hence their climate adaptation, sustainable growth and performance management becomes highly crucial in order to provide the best services to users. With the objective of evaluating appropriate management mechanisms within academic institutions, a feasibility study was carried out in a recent 5-Star Green Star rated university building (housing the School of Construction) in Victoria (south-eastern state of Australia). The key aim was to understand the behavioral and social aspect of the building users, management and the impact of their relationship on overall building sustainability. A survey was used to understand the building occupant’s response and reactions in terms of their work environment and management. A report was generated based on the survey results complemented with utility and performance data which were then used to evaluate the management structure of the university. Followed by the report, interviews were scheduled with the facility and asset managers in order to understand the approach they use to manage the different buildings in their university campuses (old, new, refurbished), respective building and parameters incorporated in maintaining the Green Star performance. The results aimed at closing the communication and feedback loop within the respective institutions and assist the facility managers to deliver appropriate stakeholder engagement. For the wider design community, analysis of the data highlights the applicability and significance of prioritizing key stakeholders, integrating desired engagement policies within an institution’s management structures and frameworks and their effect on building performance

Keywords: Building Optimization, Green Building, Post Occupancy Evaluation, Stakeholder Engagement.

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Authors: A. J. Al-Graitti, G. A. Khalid, P. Berthelson, A. Mason-Jones, R. Prabhu, M. D. Jones

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Motor vehicle related pedestrian road traffic collisions are a major road safety challenge, since they are a leading cause of death and serious injury worldwide, contributing to a third of the global disease burden. The auto rickshaw, which is a common form of urban transport in many developing countries, plays a major transport role, both as a vehicle for hire and for private use. The most common auto rickshaws are quite unlike ‘typical’ four-wheel motor vehicle, being typically characterised by three wheels, a non-tilting sheet-metal body or open frame construction, a canvas roof and side curtains, a small drivers’ cabin, handlebar controls and a passenger space at the rear. Given the propensity, in developing countries, for auto rickshaws to be used in mixed cityscapes, where pedestrians and vehicles share the roadway, the potential for auto rickshaw impacts with pedestrians is relatively high. Whilst auto rickshaws are used in some Western countries, their limited number and spatial separation from pedestrian walkways, as a result of city planning, has not resulted in significant accident statistics. Thus, auto rickshaws have not been subject to the vehicle impact related pedestrian crash kinematic analyses and/or injury mechanics assessment, typically associated with motor vehicle development in Western Europe, North America and Japan. This study presents a parametric analysis of auto rickshaw related pedestrian impacts by computational simulation, using a Finite Element model of an auto rickshaw and an LS-DYNA 50^th percentile male Hybrid III Anthropometric Test Device (dummy). Parametric variables include auto rickshaw impact velocity, auto rickshaw impact region (front, centre or offset) and relative pedestrian impact position (front, side and rear). The output data of each impact simulation was correlated against reported injury metrics, Head Injury Criterion (front, side and rear), Neck injury Criterion (front, side and rear), Abbreviated Injury Scale and reported risk level and adds greater understanding to the issue of auto rickshaw related pedestrian injury risk. The parametric analyses suggest that pedestrians are subject to a relatively high risk of injury during impacts with an auto rickshaw at velocities of 20 km/h or greater, which during some of the impact simulations may even risk fatalities. The present study provides valuable evidence for informing a series of recommendations and guidelines for making the auto rickshaw safer during collisions with pedestrians. Whilst it is acknowledged that the present research findings are based in the field of safety engineering and may over represent injury risk, compared to “Real World” accidents, many of the simulated interactions produced injury response values significantly greater than current threshold curves and thus, justify their inclusion in the study. To reduce the injury risk level and increase the safety of the auto rickshaw, there should be a reduction in the velocity of the auto rickshaw and, or, consideration of engineering solutions, such as retro fitting injury mitigation technologies to those auto rickshaw contact regions which are the subject of the greatest risk of producing pedestrian injury.

Keywords: Auto Rickshaw, finite element analysis, injury risk level, LS-DYNA, pedestrian impact.

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Authors: Natalia Podkhodova, Olga Sheremeteva, Mariia Soldaeva

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Creating favourable conditions for students’ comprehension of mathematical content is one of the primary problems in teaching mathematics in secondary school. The fact of comprehension includes the ability to build a working situational model and thus becomes an important means of solving mathematical problems. This paper describes a holistic approach to teaching mathematics designed to address the primary challenges of such teaching; specifically, the challenge of students’ comprehension. Essentially, this approach consists of (1) establishing links between the attributes of the notion: the sense, the meaning, and the term; (2) taking into account the components of student’s subjective experience—value-based emotions, contextual, procedural and communicative—during the educational process; (3) linking together different ways to present mathematical information; (4) identifying and leveraging the relationships between real, perceptual and conceptual (scientific) mathematical spaces by applying real-life situational modelling. The article describes approaches to the practical use of these foundational concepts. Identifying how proposed methods and techniques influence understanding of material used in teaching mathematics was the primary goal. The study included an experiment in which 256 secondary school students took part: 142 in the study group and 114 in the control group. All students in these groups had similar levels of achievement in math and studied math under the same curriculum. In the course of the experiment, comprehension of two topics — “Derivative” and “Trigonometric functions”—was evaluated. Control group participants were taught using traditional methods. Students in the study group were taught using the holistic method: under teacher’s guidance, they carried out assignments designed to establish linkages between notion’s characteristics, to convert information from one mode of presentation to another, as well as assignments that required the ability to operate with all modes of presentation. Identification, accounting for and transformation of subjective experience were associated with methods of stimulating the emotional value component of the studied mathematical content (discussions of lesson titles, assignments aimed to create study dominants, performing theme-related physical exercise ...) The use of techniques that forms inter-subject notions based on linkages between, perceptual real and mathematical conceptual spaces proved to be of special interest to the students. Results of the experiment were analysed by presenting students in each of the groups with a final test in each of the studied topics. The test included assignments that required building real situational models. Statistical analysis was used to aggregate test results. Pierson criterion x2 was used to reveal statistics significance of results (pass-fail the modelling test). Significant difference of results was revealed (p < 0.001), which allowed to conclude that students in the study group showed better comprehension of mathematical information than those in the control group. The total number of completed assignments of each student was analysed as well, with average results calculated for each group. Statistical significance of result differences against the quantitative criterion (number of completed assignments) was determined using Student’s t-test, which showed that students in the study group completed significantly more assignments than those in the control group (p = 0.0001). Authors thus come to the conclusion that suggested increase in the level of comprehension of study material took place as a result of applying implemented methods and techniques.

Keywords: Comprehension of mathematical content, holistic approach to teaching mathematics in secondary school, subjective experience, technology of the formation of inter-subject notions.

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Authors: Yiorgos Hadjichristou

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The paper will focus on the strategic development deriving from the evolution of the traditional courtyard spatial organization towards a new, contemporary sustainable way of living. New sustainable approaches that engulf the social issues, the notion of place, the understanding of weather architecture blended together with the bioclimatic behavior will be seen through a series of experimental case studies in the island of Cyprus, inspired and originated from its traditional wisdom, ranging from small scale of living to urban interventions. Weather and nature will be seen as co-architectural authors with architects. Furthermore, the building will be seen not as an object but rather as a vessel of human activities. This will further enhance the notion of merging the material and immaterial, the built and unbuilt, subject-human, and the object-building. This eventually will enable to generate the discussion of the understanding of the building in relation to the place and its inhabitants, where the human topography is more important than the material topography. The specificities of the divided island and the dealing with sites that are in vicinity with the diving Green Line will further trigger explorations dealing with the regeneration issues and the social sustainability offering unprecedented opportunities for innovative sustainable ways of living. Opening up a discourse with premises of weather-nature, materialimmaterial, human-material topographies in relation to the contested sites of the borders will lead us to develop innovative strategies for a profound, both technical and social sustainability, which fruitfully yields to innovative living built environments, responding to the ever changing environmental and social needs. As a starting point, a case study in Kaimakli in Nicosia, a refurbishment with an extension of a traditional house, already engulfs all the traditional/ vernacular wisdom of the bioclimatic architecture. The project focusses on the direct and quite obvious bioclimatic features such as south orientation and cross ventilation. Furthermore, it tries to reinvent the adaptation of these parameters in order to turn the whole house to a contemporary living environment. In order to succeed this, evolutions of traditional architectural elements and spatial conditions are integrated in a way that does not only respond to some certain weather conditions, but they integrate and blend the weather within the built environment. A series of innovations aiming at maximum flexibility is proposed. The house can finally be transformed into a winter enclosure, while for the most part of the year it turns into a ‘camping’ living environment. Parallel to experimental interventions in existing traditional units, we will proceed examining the implementation of the same developed methodology in designing living units and complexes. Malleable courtyard organizations that attempt to blend the traditional wisdom with the contemporary needs for living, the weather and nature with the built environment will be seen tested in both horizontal and vertical developments. Social activities are seen as directly affected and forged by the weather conditions thus generating a new social identity of people where people are directly involved and interacting with the weather. The human actions and interaction with the built, material environment in order to respond to weather will be seen as the result of balancing the social with the technological sustainability, the immaterial, and the material aspects of the living environment.

Keywords: Building as a verb, contemporary living, traditional bioclimatic wisdom, weather architecture.

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Authors: Grace E. Santella, Shawn G. Gallaher, Joseph P. Smith

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In order to determine the importance of small-system riverine heat flux on regional landfast sea ice breakup, our study explores the annual spring freshet of the Sagavanirktok River from 2014-2019. Seasonal heat cycling ultimately serves as the driving mechanism behind the freshet; however, as an emerging area of study, the extent to which inland thermodynamics influence coastal tundra geomorphology and connected landfast sea ice has not been extensively investigated in relation to small-scale Arctic river systems. The Sagavanirktok River is a small-to-midsized river system that flows south-to-north on the Alaskan North Slope from the Brooks mountain range to the Beaufort Sea at Prudhoe Bay. Seasonal warming in the spring rapidly melts snow and ice in a northwards progression from the Brooks Range and transitional tundra highlands towards the coast and when coupled with seasonal precipitation, results in a pulsed freshet that propagates through the Sagavanirktok River. The concentrated presence of newly exposed vegetation in the transitional tundra region due to spring melting results in higher absorption of solar radiation due to a lower albedo relative to snow-covered tundra and/or landfast sea ice. This results in spring flood runoff that advances over impermeable early-season permafrost soils with elevated temperatures relative to landfast sea ice and sub-ice flow. We examine the extent to which interannual temporal variability influences the onset and magnitude of river discharge by analyzing field measurements from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) river and meteorological observation sites. Rapid influx of heat to the Arctic Ocean via riverine systems results in a noticeable decay of landfast sea ice independent of ice breakup seaward of the shear zone. Utilizing MODIS imagery from NASA’s Terra satellite, interannual variability of river discharge is visualized, allowing for optical validation that the discharge flow is interacting with landfast sea ice. Thermal erosion experienced by sediment fast ice at the arrival of warm overflow preconditions the ice regime for rapid thawing. We investigate the extent to which interannual heat flux from the Sagavanirktok River’s freshet significantly influences the onset of local landfast sea ice breakup. The early-season warming of atmospheric temperatures is evidenced by the presence of storms which introduce liquid, rather than frozen, precipitation into the system. The resultant decreased albedo of the transitional tundra supports the positive relationship between early-season precipitation events, inland thermodynamic cycling, and degradation of landfast sea ice. Early removal of landfast sea ice increases coastal erosion in these regions and has implications for coastline geomorphology which stress industrial, ecological, and humanitarian infrastructure.

Keywords: Albedo, freshet, landfast sea ice, riverine heat flux, seasonal heat cycling.

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Authors: Z. Nurzaireena, K. Azalea, T. Azirawaty, S. Jameela, G. Muralitharan

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The aim of this study is the review of the management practices of sickle cell disease patients during pregnancy, as well as the maternal and neonatal outcome at Ampang Hospital, Selangor. The study consisted of a review of pregnant patients with sickle cell disease under follow up at the Hematology Clinic, Ampang Hospital over the last seven years to assess their management and maternal-fetal outcome. The results of the review show that Ampang Hospital is considered the public hematology centre for sickle cell disease and had successfully managed three pregnancies throughout the last seven years. Patients’ presentations, managements and maternal-fetal outcome were compared and reviewed for academic improvements. All three patients were seen very early in their pregnancy and had been given a regime of folic acid, antibiotics and thrombo-prophylactic drugs. Close monitoring of maternal and fetal well being was done by the hematologists and obstetricians. Among the patients, there were multiple admissions during the pregnancy for either a painful sickle cell bone crisis, haemolysis following an infection and anemia requiring phenotype- matched blood and exchange transfusions. Broad spectrum antibiotics coverage during and infection, hydration, pain management and venous-thrombolism prophylaxis were mandatory. The pregnancies managed to reach near term in the third trimester but all required emergency caesarean section for obstetric indications. All pregnancies resulted in live births with good fetal outcome. During post partum all were nursed closely in the high dependency units for further complications and were discharged well. Post partum follow up and contraception counseling was comprehensively given for future pregnancies. Sickle cell disease is uncommonly seen in the East, especially in the South East Asian region, yet more cases are seen in the current decade due to improved medical expertise and advance medical laboratory technologies. Pregnancy itself is a risk factor for sickle cell patients as increased thrombosis event and risk of infections can lead to multiple crisis, haemolysis, anemia and vaso-occlusive complications including eclampsia, cerebrovasular accidents and acute bone pain. Patients mostly require multiple blood product transfusions thus phenotype-matched blood is required to reduce the risk of alloimmunozation. Emphasizing the risks and complications in preconception counseling and establishing an ultimate pregnancy plan would probably reduce the risk of morbidity and mortality to the mother and unborn child. Early management for risk of infection, thromboembolic events and adequate hydration is mandatory. A holistic approach involving multidisciplinary team care between the hematologist, obstetricians, anesthetist, neonatologist and close nursing care for both mother and baby would ensure the best outcome. In conclusion, sickle cell disease by itself is a high risk medical condition and pregnancy would further amplify the risk. Thus, close monitoring with combine multidisciplinary care, counseling and educating the patients are crucial in achieving the safe outcome.

Keywords: Anemia, haemoglobinopathies, pregnancy, sickle cell disease.

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Authors: Climstein Mike, Walsh Joe, John Best, Heazlewood Ian Timothy, Burke Stephen, Kettunen Jyrki, Adams Kent, DeBeliso Mark

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Recently, the health of retired National Football League players, particularly lineman has been investigated. A number of studies have reported increased cardiometabolic risk, premature ardiovascular disease and incidence of type 2 diabetes. Rugby union players have somatotypes very similar to National Football league players which suggest that rugby players may have similar health risks. The International Golden Oldies World Rugby Festival (GORF) provided a unique opportunity to investigate the demographics of veteran rugby players. METHODOLOGIES: A cross-sectional, observational study was completed using an online web-based questionnaire that consisted of medical history and physiological measures. Data analysis was completed using a one sample t-test (<50yrs versus >50yrs) and Chi-square test. RESULTS: A total of 216 veteran rugby competitors (response rate = 6.8%) representing 10 countries, aged 35-72 yrs (mean 51.2, S.D. ±8.0), participated in the online survey. As a group, the incidence of current smokers was low at 8.8% (avg 72.4 cigs/wk) whilst the percentage consuming alcohol was high (93.1% (avg 11.2 drinks/wk). Competitors reported the following top six chronic diseases/disorders; hypertension (18.6%), arthritis (OA/RA, 11.5%), asthma (9.3%), hyperlipidemia (8.2%), diabetes (all types, 7.5%) and gout (6%), there were significant differences between groups with regard to cancer (all types) and migraines. When compared to the Australian general population (Australian Bureau of Statistics data, n=18,000), GORF competitors had a Climstein Mike, Walsh Joe (corresponding author) and Burke Stephen School of Exercise Science, Australian Catholic University, 25A Barker Road, Strathfield, Sydney, NSW, 2016, Australia (e-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]). John Best is with Orthosports, 160 Belmore Rd., Randwick, Sydney,NSW 2031, Australia (e-mail: [email protected]). Heazlewood, Ian Timothy is with School of Environmental and Life Sciences, Faculty Education, Health and Science, Charles Darwin University, Precinct Yellow Building 2, Charles Darwin University, NT 0909, Australia (e-mail: [email protected]). Kettunen Jyrki Arcada University of Applied Sciences, Jan-Magnus Janssonin aukio 1, FI-00550, Helsinki, Finland (e-mail: [email protected]). Adams Kent is with California State University Monterey Bay, Kinesiology Department, 100 Campus Center, Seaside, CA., 93955, USA (email: [email protected]). DeBeliso Mark is with Department of Physical Education and Human Performance, Southern Utah University, 351 West University Blvd, Cedar City, Utah, USA (e-mail: [email protected]). significantly lower incidence of anxiety (p<0.01), arthritis (p<0.06), depression (p<.01) however, a significantly higher incidence of diabetes (p<0.03) and hypertension (p<0.01). The GORF competitors also reported taking the following prescribed medications; antihypertensive (13%), hypolipidemics (8%), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory (6%), and anticoagulants (4%). Significant differences between groups were observed in antihypertensives, anticoagulants and hypolipidemics. There were significant (p<0.05) differences between groups (<50yrs versus >50yrs) with regard to height (180 vs 177cm), weight (97.6 vs 93.1Kg-s), BMI (30 vs 29.7kg/m2) and waist circumference (85.7 vs 93.1cm) however, there were no differences in subsequent parameters of systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C, triglycerides-C or fasting plasma glucose. CONCLUSIONS: This represents the first collection of demographics on this cohort. GORF participants demonstrated increased cardiometabolic risk with regard to the incidence of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension and type 2 diabetes. Preventative strategies should be developed to reduce this risk with education of these risks for future participants.

Keywords: Masters athlete, rugby union, risk factors, chronic disease.

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Authors: Sujana Dhar, Asis Mazumdar

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The effects of global warming on India vary from the submergence of low-lying islands and coastal lands to the melting of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, threatening the volumetric flow rate of many of the most important rivers of India and South Asia. In India, such effects are projected to impact millions of lives. As a result of ongoing climate change, the climate of India has become increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is expected to continue. Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and global level. The climate change issue is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development. As a result, climate policies can be more effective when consistently embedded within broader strategies designed to make national and regional development paths more sustainable. The impact of climate variability and change, climate policy responses, and associated socio-economic development will affect the ability of countries to achieve sustainable development goals. A very well calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (R2 = 0.9968, NSE = 0.91) was exercised over the Khatra sub basin of the Kangsabati River watershed in Bankura district of West Bengal, India, in order to evaluate projected parameters for agricultural activities. Evapotranspiration, Transmission Losses, Potential Evapotranspiration and Lateral Flow to reach are evaluated from the years 2041-2050 in order to generate a picture for sustainable development of the river basin and its inhabitants. India has a significant stake in scientific advancement as well as an international understanding to promote mitigation and adaptation. This requires improved scientific understanding, capacity building, networking and broad consultation processes. This paper is a commitment towards the planning, management and development of the water resources of the Kangsabati River by presenting detailed future scenarios of the Kangsabati river basin, Khatra sub basin, over the mentioned time period. India-s economy and societal infrastructures are finely tuned to the remarkable stability of the Indian monsoon, with the consequence that vulnerability to small changes in monsoon rainfall is very high. In 2002 the monsoon rains failed during July, causing profound loss of agricultural production with a drop of over 3% in India-s GDP. Neither the prolonged break in the monsoon nor the seasonal rainfall deficit was predicted. While the general features of monsoon variability and change are fairly well-documented, the causal mechanisms and the role of regional ecosystems in modulating the changes are still not clear. Current climate models are very poor at modelling the Asian monsoon: this is a challenging and critical region where the ocean, atmosphere, land surface and mountains all interact. The impact of climate change on regional ecosystems is likewise unknown. The potential for the monsoon to become more volatile has major implications for India itself and for economies worldwide. Knowledge of future variability of the monsoon system, particularly in the context of global climate change, is of great concern for regional water and food security. The major findings of this paper were that of all the chosen projected parameters, transmission losses, soil water content, potential evapotranspiration, evapotranspiration and lateral flow to reach, display an increasing trend over the time period of years 2041- 2050.

Keywords: Change, future water availability scenario, modeling, SWAT, global warming, sustainability.

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