Search results for: evaluation and prediction of quality answer
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 5862

Search results for: evaluation and prediction of quality answer

5112 Technical Determinants of Success in Quality Management Systems Implementation in the Automotive Industry

Authors: Agnieszka Misztal

Abstract:

The popularity of quality management system models continues to grow despite the transitional crisis in 2008. Their development is associated with demands of the new requirements for entrepreneurs, such as risk analysis projects and more emphasis on supervision of outsourced processes. In parallel, it is appropriate to focus attention on the selection of companies aspiring to a quality management system. This is particularly important in the automotive supplier industry, where requirements transferred to the levels in the supply chain should be clear, transparent and fairly satisfied. The author has carried out a series of researches aimed at finding the factors that allow for the effective implementation of the quality management system in automotive companies. The research was focused on four groups of companies: 1) manufacturing (parts and assemblies for the purpose of sale or for vehicle manufacturers), 2) service (repair and maintenance of the car) 3) services for the transport of goods or people, 4) commercial (auto parts and vehicles). The identified determinants were divided into two types of criteria: internal and external, as well as hard and soft. The article presents the hard – technical factors that an automotive company must meet in order to achieve the goal of the quality management system implementation.

Keywords: Automotive industry, quality management system.

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5111 Development of Improved Three Dimensional Unstructured Tetrahedral Mesh Generator

Authors: Ng Yee Luon, Mohd Zamri Yusoff, Norshah Hafeez Shuaib

Abstract:

Meshing is the process of discretizing problem domain into many sub domains before the numerical calculation can be performed. One of the most popular meshes among many types of meshes is tetrahedral mesh, due to their flexibility to fit into almost any domain shape. In both 2D and 3D domains, triangular and tetrahedral meshes can be generated by using Delaunay triangulation. The quality of mesh is an important factor in performing any Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations as the results is highly affected by the mesh quality. Many efforts had been done in order to improve the quality of the mesh. The paper describes a mesh generation routine which has been developed capable of generating high quality tetrahedral cells in arbitrary complex geometry. A few test cases in CFD problems are used for testing the mesh generator. The result of the mesh is compared with the one generated by a commercial software. The results show that no sliver exists for the meshes generated, and the overall quality is acceptable since the percentage of the bad tetrahedral is relatively small. The boundary recovery was also successfully done where all the missing faces are rebuilt.

Keywords: Mesh generation, tetrahedral, CFD, Delaunay.

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5110 Efficiency Evaluation of E-Commerce Websites

Authors: A. K. Abd El-Aleem, W. F. Abd El-wahed, N. A. Ismail, F. A. Torkey

Abstract:

This study suggests a model of a new set of evaluation criteria that will be used to measure the efficiency of real-world E-commerce websites. Evaluation criteria include design, usability and performance for websites, the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique has been used to measure the websites efficiency. An efficient Web site is defined as a site that generates the most outputs, using the smallest amount of inputs. Inputs refer to measurements representing the amount of effort required to build, maintain and perform the site. Output is amount of traffic the site generates. These outputs are measured as the average number of daily hits and the average number of daily unique visitors.

Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis, E-commerce, Efficiency.

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5109 Refitting Equations for Peak Ground Acceleration in Light of the PF-L Database

Authors: M. Breška, I. Peruš, V. Stankovski

Abstract:

The number of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) used for predicting peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the number of earthquake recordings that have been used for fitting these equations has increased in the past decades. The current PF-L database contains 3550 recordings. Since the GMPEs frequently model the peak ground acceleration the goal of the present study was to refit a selection of 44 of the existing equation models for PGA in light of the latest data. The algorithm Levenberg-Marquardt was used for fitting the coefficients of the equations and the results are evaluated both quantitatively by presenting the root mean squared error (RMSE) and qualitatively by drawing graphs of the five best fitted equations. The RMSE was found to be as low as 0.08 for the best equation models. The newly estimated coefficients vary from the values published in the original works.

Keywords: Ground Motion Prediction Equations, Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, refitting PF-L database.

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5108 Use of Radial Basis Function Neural Network for Bearing Pressure Prediction of Strip Footing on Reinforced Granular Bed Overlying Weak Soil

Authors: Srinath Shetty K., Shivashankar R., Rashmi P. Shetty

Abstract:

Earth reinforcing techniques have become useful and economical to solve problems related to difficult grounds and provide satisfactory foundation performance. In this context, this paper uses radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) for predicting the bearing pressure of strip footing on reinforced granular bed overlying weak soil. The inputs for the neural network models included plate width, thickness of granular bed and number of layers of reinforcements, settlement ratio, water content, dry density, cohesion and angle of friction. The results indicated that RBFNN model exhibited more than 84 % prediction accuracy, thereby demonstrating its application in a geotechnical problem.

Keywords: Bearing pressure, granular bed, radial basis function neural network, strip footing.

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5107 A Large Dataset Imputation Approach Applied to Country Conflict Prediction Data

Authors: Benjamin D. Leiby, Darryl K. Ahner

Abstract:

This study demonstrates an alternative stochastic imputation approach for large datasets when preferred commercial packages struggle to iterate due to numerical problems. A large country conflict dataset motivates the search to impute missing values well over a common threshold of 20% missingness. The methodology capitalizes on correlation while using model residuals to provide the uncertainty in estimating unknown values. Examination of the methodology provides insight toward choosing linear or nonlinear modeling terms. Static tolerances common in most packages are replaced with tailorable tolerances that exploit residuals to fit each data element. The methodology evaluation includes observing computation time, model fit, and the comparison of known  values to replaced values created through imputation. Overall, the country conflict dataset illustrates promise with modeling first-order interactions, while presenting a need for further refinement that mimics predictive mean matching.

Keywords: Correlation, country conflict, imputation, stochastic regression.

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5106 Why do Clawback Provisions Affect Financial Reporting Quality? - An Analysis of Trigger Effects

Authors: Yu-Chun Lin

Abstract:

We identify clawback triggers from firms- proxy statements (Form DEF 14A) and use the likelihood of restatements to proxy for financial reporting quality. Based on a sample of 578 U.S. firms that voluntarily adopt clawback provisions during 2003-2009, when restatement-based triggers could be decomposed into two types: fraud and unintentional error, and we do observe the evidence that using fraud triggers is associated with high financial reporting quality. The findings support that fraud triggers can enhance deterrent effect of clawback provision by establishing a viable disincentive against fraud, misconduct, and otherwise harmful acts. These results are robust to controlling for the compensation components, to different sample specifications and to a number of sensitivity.

Keywords: Accruals quality, Clawback provisions, Compensation, Restatements.

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5105 The Use of Voltage Stability Indices and Proposed Instability Prediction to Coordinate with Protection Systems

Authors: R. Leelaruji, V. Knazkins

Abstract:

This paper proposes a methodology for mitigating the occurrence of cascading failure in stressed power systems. The methodology is essentially based on predicting voltage instability in the power system using a voltage stability index and then devising a corrective action in order to increase the voltage stability margin. The paper starts with a brief description of the cascading failure mechanism which is probable root cause of severe blackouts. Then, the voltage instability indices are introduced in order to evaluate stability limit. The aim of the analysis is to assure that the coordination of protection, by adopting load shedding scheme, capable of enhancing performance of the system after the major location of instability is determined. Finally, the proposed method to generate instability prediction is introduced.

Keywords: Blackouts, cascading failure, voltage stability indices, singular value decomposition, load shedding.

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5104 Evaluation of Wavelet Filters for Image Compression

Authors: G. Sadashivappa, K. V. S. AnandaBabu

Abstract:

The aim of this paper to characterize a larger set of wavelet functions for implementation in a still image compression system using SPIHT algorithm. This paper discusses important features of wavelet functions and filters used in sub band coding to convert image into wavelet coefficients in MATLAB. Image quality is measured objectively using peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR) and its variation with bit rate (bpp). The effect of different parameters is studied on different wavelet functions. Our results provide a good reference for application designers of wavelet based coder.

Keywords: Wavelet, image compression, sub band, SPIHT, PSNR.

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5103 Evaluation of Cast-in-Situ Pile Condition Using Pile Integrity Test

Authors: Mohammad I. Hossain, Omar F. Hamim

Abstract:

This paper presents a case study on a pile integrity test for assessing the integrity of piles as well as a physical dimension (e.g., cross-sectional area, length), continuity, and consistency of the pile materials. The recent boom in the socio-economic condition of Bangladesh has given rise to the building of high-rise commercial and residential infrastructures. The advantage of the pile integrity test lies in the fact that it is possible to get an approximate indication regarding the quality of the sub-structure before commencing the construction of the super-structure. This paper aims at providing a classification of cast-in-situ piles based on characteristic reflectograms obtained using the Sonic Integrity Testing program for the sub-soil condition of Narayanganj, Bangladesh. The piles have been classified as 'Pile Type-1', 'Pile Type-2', 'Pile Type-3', 'Pile type-4', 'Pile Type-5' or 'Pile Type-6' from the visual observations of reflections from the generated stress waves by striking the pile head with a handheld hammer. With respect to construction quality and integrity, piles have been further classified into three distinct categories, i.e., satisfactory, may be satisfactory, and unsatisfactory.

Keywords: Cast-in-situ piles, characteristic reflectograms, pile integrity test, sonic integrity testing program.

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5102 Finding Pareto Optimal Front for the Multi-Mode Time, Cost Quality Trade-off in Project Scheduling

Authors: H. Iranmanesh, M. R. Skandari, M. Allahverdiloo

Abstract:

Project managers are the ultimate responsible for the overall characteristics of a project, i.e. they should deliver the project on time with minimum cost and with maximum quality. It is vital for any manager to decide a trade-off between these conflicting objectives and they will be benefited of any scientific decision support tool. Our work will try to determine optimal solutions (rather than a single optimal solution) from which the project manager will select his desirable choice to run the project. In this paper, the problem in project scheduling notated as (1,T|cpm,disc,mu|curve:quality,time,cost) will be studied. The problem is multi-objective and the purpose is finding the Pareto optimal front of time, cost and quality of a project (curve:quality,time,cost), whose activities belong to a start to finish activity relationship network (cpm) and they can be done in different possible modes (mu) which are non-continuous or discrete (disc), and each mode has a different cost, time and quality . The project is constrained to a non-renewable resource i.e. money (1,T). Because the problem is NP-Hard, to solve the problem, a meta-heuristic is developed based on a version of genetic algorithm specially adapted to solve multi-objective problems namely FastPGA. A sample project with 30 activities is generated and then solved by the proposed method.

Keywords: FastPGA, Multi-Execution Activity Mode, ParetoOptimality, Project Scheduling, Time-Cost-Quality Trade-Off.

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5101 Time Series Forecasting Using Various Deep Learning Models

Authors: Jimeng Shi, Mahek Jain, Giri Narasimhan

Abstract:

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed length window in the past as an explicit input. In this paper, we study how the performance of predictive models change as a function of different look-back window sizes and different amounts of time to predict into the future. We also consider the performance of the recent attention-based transformer models, which had good success in the image processing and natural language processing domains. In all, we compare four different deep learning methods (Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Transformer) along with a baseline method. The dataset (hourly) we used is the Beijing Air Quality Dataset from the website of University of California, Irvine (UCI), which includes a multivariate time series of many factors measured on an hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2010-14). For each model, we also report on the relationship between the performance and the look-back window sizes and the number of predicted time points into the future. Our experiments suggest that Transformer models have the best performance with the lowest Mean   Absolute Errors (MAE = 14.599, 23.273) and Root Mean Square Errors (RSME = 23.573, 38.131) for most of our single-step and multi-steps predictions. The best size for the look-back window to predict 1 hour into the future appears to be one day, while 2 or 4 days perform the best to predict 3 hours into the future.

Keywords: Air quality prediction, deep learning algorithms, time series forecasting, look-back window.

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5100 Artificial Intelligence Techniques Applications for Power Disturbances Classification

Authors: K.Manimala, Dr.K.Selvi, R.Ahila

Abstract:

Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods are increasingly being used for problem solving. This paper concerns using AI-type learning machines for power quality problem, which is a problem of general interest to power system to provide quality power to all appliances. Electrical power of good quality is essential for proper operation of electronic equipments such as computers and PLCs. Malfunction of such equipment may lead to loss of production or disruption of critical services resulting in huge financial and other losses. It is therefore necessary that critical loads be supplied with electricity of acceptable quality. Recognition of the presence of any disturbance and classifying any existing disturbance into a particular type is the first step in combating the problem. In this work two classes of AI methods for Power quality data mining are studied: Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs). We show that SVMs are superior to ANNs in two critical respects: SVMs train and run an order of magnitude faster; and SVMs give higher classification accuracy.

Keywords: back propagation network, power quality, probabilistic neural network, radial basis function support vector machine

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5099 Dataset Analysis Using Membership-Deviation Graph

Authors: Itgel Bayarsaikhan, Jimin Lee, Sejong Oh

Abstract:

Classification is one of the primary themes in computational biology. The accuracy of classification strongly depends on quality of a dataset, and we need some method to evaluate this quality. In this paper, we propose a new graphical analysis method using 'Membership-Deviation Graph (MDG)' for analyzing quality of a dataset. MDG represents degree of membership and deviations for instances of a class in the dataset. The result of MDG analysis is used for understanding specific feature and for selecting best feature for classification.

Keywords: feature, classification, machine learning algorithm.

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5098 A Quality-Oriented Approach toward Strategic Positioning in Higher Education Institutions

Authors: M. M. Mashhadi, K. Mohajeri, M. D. Nayeri

Abstract:

Positioning the organization in the strategic environment of its industry is one of the first and most important phases of the organizational strategic planning and in today knowledge-based economy has its importance been duplicated for higher education institutes as the centers of education, knowledge creation and knowledge worker training. Up to now, various models with diverse approaches have been applied to investigate organizations- strategic position in different industries. Regarding the essential importance and strategic role of quality in higher education institutes, in this study, a quality-oriented approach has been suggested to positioning them in their strategic environment. Then the European Foundation of Quality Management (EFQM) model has been adopted to position the top Iranian business schools in their strategic environment. The result of this study can be used in strategic planning of these institutes as well as the other Iranian business schools.

Keywords: Strategic planning, Strategic positioning, Quality, EFQM model, Higher education institutions.

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5097 Influence of Chelators, Zn Sulphate and Silicic Acid on Productivity and Meat Quality of Fattening Pigs

Authors: A. Raceviciute-Stupeliene, V. Sasyte, V. Viliene, V. Slausgalvis, J. Al-Saifi, R. Gruzauskas

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of special additives such as chelators, zinc sulphate and silicic acid on productivity parameters, carcass characteristics and meat quality of fattening pigs. The test started with 40 days old fattening pigs (mongrel (mother) and Yorkshire (father)) and lasted up to 156 days of age. During the fattening period, 32 pigs were divided into 2 groups (control and experimental) with 4 replicates (total of 8 pens).  The pigs were fed for 16 weeks’ ad libitum with a standard wheat-barley-soybean meal compound (Control group) supplemented with chelators, zinc sulphate and silicic acid (dosage 2 kg/t of feed, Experimental group). Meat traits in live pigs were measured by ultrasonic equipment Piglog 105. The results obtained throughout the experimental period suggest that supplementation of chelators, zinc sulphate and silicic acid tend to positively affect average daily gain and feed conversion ratio of pigs for fattening (p < 0.05). Pigs’ evaluation with Piglog 105 showed that thickness of fat in the first and second point was by 4% and 3% respectively higher in comparison to the control group (p < 0.05). Carcass weight, yield, and length, also thickness of fat showed no significant difference among the groups. The water holding capacity of meat in Experimental group was lower by 5.28%, and tenderness – lower by 12% compared with that of the pigs in the Control group (p < 0.05). Regarding pigs’ meat chemical composition of the experimental group, a statistically significant difference comparing with the data of the control group was not determined. Cholesterol concentration in muscles of pigs fed diets supplemented with chelators, zinc sulphate and silicic acid was lower by 7.93 mg/100 g of muscle in comparison to that of the control group. These results suggest that supplementation of chelators, zinc sulphate and silicic acid in the feed for fattening pigs had significant effect on pigs growing performance and meat quality.

Keywords: Chelators, meat quality, pigs, silicic acid, zinc sulphate.

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5096 Quality of Service in Multioperator GPON Access Networks with Triple-Play Services

Authors: Germán Santos-Boada, Jordi Domingo-Pascual

Abstract:

Recently, in some places, optical-fibre access networks have been used with GPON technology belonging to organizations (in most cases public bodies) that act as neutral operators. These operators simultaneously provide network services to various telecommunications operators that offer integrated voice, data and television services. This situation creates new problems related to quality of service, since the interests of the users are intermingled with the interests of the operators. In this paper, we analyse this problem and consider solutions that make it possible to provide guaranteed quality of service for voice over IP, data services and interactive digital television.

Keywords: GPON networks, multioperator, quality of service, triple-play services.

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5095 Efficient Tools for Managing Uncertainties in Design and Operation of Engineering Structures

Authors: J. Menčík

Abstract:

Actual load, material characteristics and other quantities often differ from the design values. This can cause worse function, shorter life or failure of a civil engineering structure, a machine, vehicle or another appliance. The paper shows main causes of the uncertainties and deviations and presents a systematic approach and efficient tools for their elimination or mitigation of consequences. Emphasis is put on the design stage, which is most important for reliability ensuring. Principles of robust design and important tools are explained, including FMEA, sensitivity analysis and probabilistic simulation methods. The lifetime prediction of long-life objects can be improved by long-term monitoring of the load response and damage accumulation in operation. The condition evaluation of engineering structures, such as bridges, is often based on visual inspection and verbal description. Here, methods based on fuzzy logic can reduce the subjective influences.

Keywords: Design, fuzzy methods, Monte Carlo, reliability, robust design, sensitivity analysis, simulation, uncertainties.

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5094 Finding Pareto Optimal Front for the Multi- Mode Time, Cost Quality Trade-off in Project Scheduling

Authors: H. Iranmanesh, M. R. Skandari, M. Allahverdiloo

Abstract:

Project managers are the ultimate responsible for the overall characteristics of a project, i.e. they should deliver the project on time with minimum cost and with maximum quality. It is vital for any manager to decide a trade-off between these conflicting objectives and they will be benefited of any scientific decision support tool. Our work will try to determine optimal solutions (rather than a single optimal solution) from which the project manager will select his desirable choice to run the project. In this paper, the problem in project scheduling notated as (1,T|cpm,disc,mu|curve:quality,time,cost) will be studied. The problem is multi-objective and the purpose is finding the Pareto optimal front of time, cost and quality of a project (curve:quality,time,cost), whose activities belong to a start to finish activity relationship network (cpm) and they can be done in different possible modes (mu) which are non-continuous or discrete (disc), and each mode has a different cost, time and quality . The project is constrained to a non-renewable resource i.e. money (1,T). Because the problem is NP-Hard, to solve the problem, a meta-heuristic is developed based on a version of genetic algorithm specially adapted to solve multi-objective problems namely FastPGA. A sample project with 30 activities is generated and then solved by the proposed method.

Keywords: FastPGA, Multi-Execution Activity Mode, Pareto Optimality, Project Scheduling, Time-Cost-Quality Trade-Off.

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5093 Baking Quality of Hulled Wheat Species in Organic Farming

Authors: P. Konvalina, I. Capouchová, Z. Stehno

Abstract:

The organic farmers use wider range of crop varieties than the conventional farming. Bread wheat is the most favorite and the most common food crop. The organic bread wheat is usually of worse technological quality. Therefore, it is supposed to be an attractive alternative to the hulled wheat species (einkorn, emmer wheat and spelt). Twenty-five hulled bread wheat varieties and control bread wheat ones were grown on the certified organic parcel in České Budějovice (the Czech Republic) between 2009 and 2012. Their baking quality was measured and evaluated with standard methods, and in accordance with ICC. The results have shown that the grain of hulled wheat varieties contain a lot of proteins in grains (up to 18 percent); even the organic hulled bread wheat varieties are characterized by such good baking quality. Einkorn and emmer wheat are of worse technological quality of proteins (low values of gluten index and Zeleny test), which is a disadvantage of these two wheat species. On the other hand, spelt wheat is of better technological quality and is similar to the control bread wheat varieties. Mixtures consisting of bread wheat, among others, are considered good alternatives; they may contribute to wider range of use of the hulled wheat species. It is one of the possibilities which may increase the proportion of proteins in bread wheat grains; the nutrition-rich hulled wheat grains may be also used in such way at the same time.

Keywords: Baking quality, organic farming, einkorn, emmer wheat, spelt.

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5092 Mining of Interesting Prediction Rules with Uniform Two-Level Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Bilal Alatas, Ahmet Arslan

Abstract:

The main goal of data mining is to extract accurate, comprehensible and interesting knowledge from databases that may be considered as large search spaces. In this paper, a new, efficient type of Genetic Algorithm (GA) called uniform two-level GA is proposed as a search strategy to discover truly interesting, high-level prediction rules, a difficult problem and relatively little researched, rather than discovering classification knowledge as usual in the literatures. The proposed method uses the advantage of uniform population method and addresses the task of generalized rule induction that can be regarded as a generalization of the task of classification. Although the task of generalized rule induction requires a lot of computations, which is usually not satisfied with the normal algorithms, it was demonstrated that this method increased the performance of GAs and rapidly found interesting rules.

Keywords: Classification rule mining, data mining, genetic algorithms.

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5091 A Reusability Evaluation Model for OO-Based Software Components

Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Hardeep Singh

Abstract:

The requirement to improve software productivity has promoted the research on software metric technology. There are metrics for identifying the quality of reusable components but the function that makes use of these metrics to find reusability of software components is still not clear. These metrics if identified in the design phase or even in the coding phase can help us to reduce the rework by improving quality of reuse of the component and hence improve the productivity due to probabilistic increase in the reuse level. CK metric suit is most widely used metrics for the objectoriented (OO) software; we critically analyzed the CK metrics, tried to remove the inconsistencies and devised the framework of metrics to obtain the structural analysis of OO-based software components. Neural network can learn new relationships with new input data and can be used to refine fuzzy rules to create fuzzy adaptive system. Hence, Neuro-fuzzy inference engine can be used to evaluate the reusability of OO-based component using its structural attributes as inputs. In this paper, an algorithm has been proposed in which the inputs can be given to Neuro-fuzzy system in form of tuned WMC, DIT, NOC, CBO , LCOM values of the OO software component and output can be obtained in terms of reusability. The developed reusability model has produced high precision results as expected by the human experts.

Keywords: CK-Metric, ID3, Neuro-fuzzy, Reusability.

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5090 A Statistical Prediction of Likely Distress in Nigeria Banking Sector Using a Neural Network Approach

Authors: D. A. Farinde

Abstract:

One of the most significant threats to the economy of a nation is the bankruptcy of its banks. This study evaluates the susceptibility of Nigerian banks to failure with a view to identifying ratios and financial data that are sensitive to solvency of the bank. Further, a predictive model is generated to guide all stakeholders in the industry. Thirty quoted banks that had published Annual Reports for the year preceding the consolidation i.e. year 2004 were selected. They were examined for distress using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Analysis. The model was used to analyze further reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria using published Annual Reports of twenty quoted banks for the year 2008 and 2011. The model can thus be used for future prediction of failure in the Nigerian banking system.

Keywords: Bank, Bankruptcy, Financial Ratios, Neural Network, Multilayer Perceptron, Predictive Model

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5089 Analysis of Differences between Public and Experts’ Views Regarding Sustainable Development of Developing Cities: A Case Study in the Iraqi Capital Baghdad

Authors: Marwah Mohsin, Thomas Beach, Alan Kwan, Mahdi Ismail

Abstract:

This paper describes the differences in views on sustainable development between the general public and experts in a developing country, Iraq. This paper will answer the question: How do the views of the public differ from the generally accepted view of experts in the context of sustainable urban development in Iraq? In order to answer this question, the views of both the public and the experts will be analysed. These results are taken from a public survey and a Delphi questionnaire. These will be analysed using statistical methods in order to identify the significant differences. This will enable investigation of the different perceptions between the public perceptions and the experts’ views towards urban sustainable development factors. This is important due to the fact that different viewpoints between policy-makers and the public will impact on the acceptance by the public of any future sustainable development work that is undertaken. The brief findings of the statistical analysis show that the views of both the public and the experts are considered different in most of the variables except six variables show no differences. Those variables are ‘The importance of establishing sustainable cities in Iraq’, ‘Mitigate traffic congestion’, ‘Waste recycling and separating’, ‘Use wastewater recycling’, ‘Parks and green spaces’, and ‘Promote investment’.

Keywords: Urban sustainable development, experts’ views, public views, statistical analysis.

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5088 Forecasting Direct Normal Irradiation at Djibouti Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Ahmed Kayad Abdourazak, Abderafi Souad, Zejli Driss, Idriss Abdoulkader Ibrahim

Abstract:

In this paper Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the solar irradiation in Djibouti for the first Time that is useful to the integration of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and sites selections for new or future solar plants as part of solar energy development. An ANN algorithm was developed to establish a forward/reverse correspondence between the latitude, longitude, altitude and monthly solar irradiation. For this purpose the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) data of eight Djibouti sites were used as training and testing in a standard three layers network with the back propagation algorithm of Lavenber-Marquardt. Results have shown a very good agreement for the solar irradiation prediction in Djibouti and proves that the proposed approach can be well used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar irradiation by providing so helpful information concerning sites selection, design and planning of solar plants.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, solar irradiation, concentrated solar power, Lavenberg-Marquardt.

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5087 A New Technique for Solar Activity Forecasting Using Recurrent Elman Networks

Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

Abstract:

In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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5086 A Comparison between Hybrid and Experimental Extended Polars for the Numerical Prediction of Vertical-Axis Wind Turbine Performance using Blade Element-Momentum Algorithm

Authors: Gabriele Bedon, Marco Raciti Castelli, Ernesto Benini

Abstract:

A dynamic stall-corrected Blade Element-Momentum algorithm based on a hybrid polar is validated through the comparison with Sandia experimental measurements on a 5-m diameter wind turbine of Troposkien shape. Different dynamic stall models are evaluated. The numerical predictions obtained using the extended aerodynamic coefficients provided by both Sheldal and Klimas and Raciti Castelli et al. are compared to experimental data, determining the potential of the hybrid database for the numerical prediction of vertical-axis wind turbine performances.

Keywords: Darrieus wind turbine, Blade Element-Momentum Theory, extended airfoil database, hybrid database, Sandia 5-m wind turbine.

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5085 System Reliability by Prediction of Generator Output and Losses in a Competitive Energy Market

Authors: Perumal Nallagownden, Ravindra N. Mukerjee, Syafrudin Masri

Abstract:

In a competitive energy market, system reliability should be maintained at all times. Power system operation being of online in nature, the energy balance requirements must be satisfied to ensure reliable operation the system. To achieve this, information regarding the expected status of the system, the scheduled transactions and the relevant inputs necessary to make either a transaction contract or a transmission contract operational, have to be made available in real time. The real time procedure proposed, facilitates this. This paper proposes a quadratic curve learning procedure, which enables a generator-s contribution to the retailer demand, power loss of transaction in a line at the retail end and its associated losses for an oncoming operating scenario to be predicted. Matlab program was used to test in on a 24-bus IEE Reliability Test System, and the results are found to be acceptable.

Keywords: Deregulation, learning coefficients, reliability, prediction, competitive energy market.

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5084 Intelligent Heart Disease Prediction System Using CANFIS and Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Latha Parthiban, R. Subramanian

Abstract:

Heart disease (HD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the modern society. Medical diagnosis is an important but complicated task that should be performed accurately and efficiently and its automation would be very useful. All doctors are unfortunately not equally skilled in every sub specialty and they are in many places a scarce resource. A system for automated medical diagnosis would enhance medical care and reduce costs. In this paper, a new approach based on coactive neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) was presented for prediction of heart disease. The proposed CANFIS model combined the neural network adaptive capabilities and the fuzzy logic qualitative approach which is then integrated with genetic algorithm to diagnose the presence of the disease. The performances of the CANFIS model were evaluated in terms of training performances and classification accuracies and the results showed that the proposed CANFIS model has great potential in predicting the heart disease.

Keywords: CANFIS, genetic algorithms, heart disease, membership function.

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5083 Reliability Verification of the Performance Evaluation of Multiphase Pump

Authors: Joon-Hyung Kim, Him-Chan Lee, Jin-Hyuk Kim, Yong-Kab Lee, Young-Seok Choi

Abstract:

The crude oil in an oil well exists in various phases such as gas, seawater, and sand, as well as oil. Therefore, a phase separator is needed at the front of a single-phase pump for pressurization and transfer. On the other hand, the application of a multiphase pump can provide such advantages as simplification of the equipment structure and cost savings, because there is no need for a phase separation process. Therefore, the crude oil transfer method using a multiphase pump is being applied to recently developed oil wells. Due to this increase in demand, technical demands for the development of multiphase pumps are sharply increasing, but the progress of research into related technologies is insufficient, due to the nature of multiphase pumps that require high levels of skills. This study was conducted to verify the reliability of pump performance evaluation using numerical analysis, which is the basis of the development of a multiphase pump. For this study, a model was designed by selecting the specifications of this study. The performance of the designed model was evaluated through numerical analysis and experiment. The results of the performance evaluation were compared to verify the reliability of the result using numerical analysis.

Keywords: Multiphase pump, Numerical analysis, Experiment, Performance evaluation, Reliability verification.

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