Search results for: Capital Costs
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 971

Search results for: Capital Costs

251 Urban Flood Control and Management - An Integrated Approach

Authors: Ranjan Sarukkalige, Joseph Sanjaya Ma

Abstract:

Flood management is one of the important fields in urban storm water management. Floods are influenced by the increase of huge storm event, or improper planning of the area. This study mainly provides the flood protection in four stages; planning, flood event, responses and evaluation. However it is most effective then flood protection is considered in planning/design and evaluation stages since both stages represent the land development of the area. Structural adjustments are often more reliable than nonstructural adjustments in providing flood protection, however structural adjustments are constrained by numerous factors such as political constraints and cost. Therefore it is important to balance both adjustments with the situation. The technical decisions provided will have to be approved by the higher-ups who have the power to decide on the final solution. Costs however, are the biggest factor in determining the final decision. Therefore this study recommends flood protection system should have been integrated and enforces more in the early stages (planning and design) as part of the storm water management plan. Factors influencing the technical decisions provided should be reduced as low as possible to avoid a reduction in the expected performance of the proposed adjustments.

Keywords: Urban Flood, flood protection, water management, storm water, cost,

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250 Development and Initial Validation of the Social Competency Inventory for Tertiary Level Faculty Members

Authors: Glenn M. Calaguas, Carmela S. Dizon

Abstract:

This study aimed to develop and initially validate an instrument that measures social competency among tertiary level faculty members. A review of extant literature on social competence was done. The review of extant literature led to the writing of the items in the initial instrument which was evaluated by 11 Subject Matter Experts (SMEs). The SMEs were either educators or psychologists. The results of the evaluations done by the SMEs served as bases for the creation of the pre-try-out instrument used in the first trial-run. Insights from the first trial-run participants led to the development of the main try-out instrument used in the final test administration. One Hundred Forty-one participants from five private Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in the National Capital Region (NCR) and five private HEIs in Central Luzon in the Philippines participated in the final test administration. The reliability of the instrument was evaluated using Cronbach-s Coefficient Alpha formula and had a Cronbach-s Alpha of 0.92. On the other hand, Factor Analysis was used to evaluate the validity of the instrument and six factors were identified. The development of the final instrument was based on the results of the evaluation of the instrument-s reliability and validity. For purposes of recognition, the instrument was named “Social Competency Inventory for Tertiary Level Faculty Members (SCI-TLFM)."

Keywords: development, initial validation, social competency, tertiary level faculty members

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249 Ground Motion Modelling in Bangladesh Using Stochastic Method

Authors: Mizan Ahmed, Srikanth Venkatesan

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Geological and tectonic framework indicates that Bangladesh is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. The Bengal Basin is at the junction of three major interacting plates: the Indian, Eurasian, and Burma Plates. Besides there are many active faults within the region, e.g. the large Dauki fault in the north. The country has experienced a number of destructive earthquakes due to the movement of these active faults. Current seismic provisions of Bangladesh are mostly based on earthquake data prior to the 1990. Given the record of earthquakes post 1990, there is a need to revisit the design provisions of the code. This paper compares the base shear demand of three major cities in Bangladesh: Dhaka (the capital city), Sylhet, and Chittagong for earthquake scenarios of magnitudes 7.0MW, 7.5MW, 8.0MW, and 8.5MW using a stochastic model. In particular, the stochastic model allows the flexibility to input region specific parameters such as shear wave velocity profile (that were developed from Global Crustal Model CRUST2.0) and include the effects of attenuation as individual components. Effects of soil amplification were analysed using the Extended Component Attenuation Model (ECAM). Results show that the estimated base shear demand is higher in comparison with code provisions leading to the suggestion of additional seismic design consideration in the study regions.

Keywords: Attenuation, earthquake, ground motion, stochastic, seismic hazard.

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248 Analysis of the Reasons behind the Deteriorated Standing of Engineering Companies during the Financial Crisis

Authors: Levan Sabauri

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss the deteriorated standing of engineering companies, some of the reasons behind it and the problems facing engineering enterprises during the financial crisis. We show the part that financial analysis plays in the detection of the main factors affecting the standing of a company, classify internal problems and the reasons influencing efficiency thereof. The publication contains the analysis of municipal engineering companies in post-Soviet transitional economies. In the wake of the 2008 world financial crisis the issue became even more poignant. It should be said though that even before the problem had been no less acute for some post-Soviet states caught up in a lengthy transitional period. The paper highlights shortcomings in the management of transportation companies, with new, more appropriate methods suggested. In analyzing the financial stability of a company, three elements need to be considered: current assets, investment policy and structural management of the funding sources leveraging the stability, should be focused on. Inappropriate management of the three may create certain financial problems, with timely and accurate detection thereof being an issue in terms of improved standing of an enterprise. In this connection, the publication contains a diagram reflecting the reasons behind the deteriorated financial standing of a company, as well as a flow chart thereof. The main reasons behind low profitability are also discussed.

Keywords: Efficiency, financial management, financial analysis funding structure, financial sustainability, investment policy, profitability, solvency, working capital.

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247 Analysis of Differences between Public and Experts’ Views Regarding Sustainable Development of Developing Cities: A Case Study in the Iraqi Capital Baghdad

Authors: Marwah Mohsin, Thomas Beach, Alan Kwan, Mahdi Ismail

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This paper describes the differences in views on sustainable development between the general public and experts in a developing country, Iraq. This paper will answer the question: How do the views of the public differ from the generally accepted view of experts in the context of sustainable urban development in Iraq? In order to answer this question, the views of both the public and the experts will be analysed. These results are taken from a public survey and a Delphi questionnaire. These will be analysed using statistical methods in order to identify the significant differences. This will enable investigation of the different perceptions between the public perceptions and the experts’ views towards urban sustainable development factors. This is important due to the fact that different viewpoints between policy-makers and the public will impact on the acceptance by the public of any future sustainable development work that is undertaken. The brief findings of the statistical analysis show that the views of both the public and the experts are considered different in most of the variables except six variables show no differences. Those variables are ‘The importance of establishing sustainable cities in Iraq’, ‘Mitigate traffic congestion’, ‘Waste recycling and separating’, ‘Use wastewater recycling’, ‘Parks and green spaces’, and ‘Promote investment’.

Keywords: Urban sustainable development, experts’ views, public views, statistical analysis.

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246 Genetic Algorithm Optimization of the Economical, Ecological and Self-Consumption Impact of the Energy Production of a Single Building

Authors: Ludovic Favre, Thibaut M. Schafer, Jean-Luc Robyr, Elena-Lavinia Niederhäuser

Abstract:

This paper presents an optimization method based on genetic algorithm for the energy management inside buildings developed in the frame of the project Smart Living Lab (SLL) in Fribourg (Switzerland). This algorithm optimizes the interaction between renewable energy production, storage systems and energy consumers. In comparison with standard algorithms, the innovative aspect of this project is the extension of the smart regulation over three simultaneous criteria: the energy self-consumption, the decrease of greenhouse gas emissions and operating costs. The genetic algorithm approach was chosen due to the large quantity of optimization variables and the non-linearity of the optimization function. The optimization process includes also real time data of the building as well as weather forecast and users habits. This information is used by a physical model of the building energy resources to predict the future energy production and needs, to select the best energetic strategy, to combine production or storage of energy in order to guarantee the demand of electrical and thermal energy. The principle of operation of the algorithm as well as typical output example of the algorithm is presented.

Keywords: Building’s energy, control system, energy management, modelling, genetic optimization algorithm, renewable energy, greenhouse gases, energy storage.

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245 Novel Trends in Manufacturing Systems with View on Implementation Possibilities of Intelligent Automation

Authors: Roman Ružarovský, Radovan Holubek, Peter Košťál

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The current trend of increasing quality and demands of the final product is affected by time analysis of the entire manufacturing process. The primary requirement of manufacturing is to produce as many products as soon as possible, at the lowest possible cost, but of course with the highest quality. Such requirements may be satisfied only if all the elements entering and affecting the production cycle are in a fully functional condition. These elements consist of sensory equipment and intelligent control elements that are essential for building intelligent manufacturing systems. The intelligent manufacturing paradigm includes a new approach to production system structure design. Intelligent behaviors are based on the monitoring of important parameters of system and its environment. The flexible reaction to changes. The realization and utilization of this design paradigm as an "intelligent manufacturing system" enables the flexible system reaction to production requirement as soon as environmental changes too. Results of these flexible reactions are a smaller layout space, be decreasing of production and investment costs and be increasing of productivity. Intelligent manufacturing system itself should be a system that can flexibly respond to changes in entering and exiting the process in interaction with the surroundings.

Keywords: Sensory equipment, intelligent manufacturing systems, manufacturing process, control system, smart automation.

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244 Development of Workplace Environmental Monitoring Systems Using Ubiquitous Sensor Network

Authors: Jung-Min Yun, Jong-Hyun Baek, Byoung Ky Kang, Peom Park

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In this study, workplace environmental monitoring systems were established using USN(Ubiquitous Sensor Networks) and LabVIEW. Although existing direct sampling methods enable finding accurate values as of the time points of measurement, those methods are disadvantageous in that continuous management and supervision are difficult and costs for are high when those methods are used. Therefore, the efficiency and reliability of workplace management by supervisors are relatively low when those methods are used. In this study, systems were established so that information on workplace environmental factors such as temperatures, humidity and noises is measured and transmitted to the PC in real time to enable supervisors to monitor workplaces through LabVIEW on the PC. When any accidents have occurred in workplaces, supervisors can immediately respond through the monitoring system and this system enables integrated workplace management and the prevention of safety accidents. By introducing these monitoring systems, safety accidents due to harmful environmental factors in workplaces can be prevented and these monitoring systems will be also helpful in finding out the correlation between safety accidents and occupational diseases by comparing and linking databases established by this monitoring system with existing statistical data.

Keywords: Ubiquitous Sensor Nework, LabVIEW, Environment Monitoring.

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243 Optimization of Element Type for FE Model and Verification of Analyses with Physical Tests

Authors: M. Tufekci, C. Guven

Abstract:

In Automotive Industry, sliding door systems that are also used as body closures are safety members. Extreme product tests are realized to prevent failures in design process, but these tests realized experimentally result in high costs. Finite element analysis is an effective tool used for design process. These analyses are used before production of prototype for validation of design according to customer requirement. In result of this, substantial amount of time and cost is saved. Finite element model is created for geometries that are designed in 3D CAD programs. Different element types as bar, shell and solid, can be used for creating mesh model. Cheaper model can be created by selection of element type, but combination of element type that was used in model, number and geometry of element and degrees of freedom affects the analysis result. Sliding door system is a good example which used these methods for this study. Structural analysis was realized for sliding door mechanism by using FE models. As well, physical tests that have same boundary conditions with FE models were realized. Comparison study for these element types, were done regarding test and analyses results then optimum combination was achieved.

Keywords: Finite Element Analysis, Sliding Door Mechanism, Element Type, Structural Analysis.

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242 Modeling of Supply Chains Delocalization Problems Taking into Account the New Financial Policies: Case of Multinational Firms Established in OECD Member Countries

Authors: Mouna Benfssahi, Zoubir El Felsoufi

Abstract:

For many enterprises, the delocalization of a part or the totality of their supply chain to low cost countries is the best way to reduce costs and remain competitive against the growing globalized market. This new tendency is driven by logistics advantages, as well as, financial and tax discount offered by the host countries. The objective of this article is to examine the new financial challenges introduced by the project of base erosion and profits shifting (BEPS), published in 2015, and also their impact on the decision of delocalization. In fact, the strategy adopted by multinational firms for determining the transfer price (TP) of goods and services, as well as the shared amount of revenues and expenses have a major impact upon group profit and may contribute to divergent results. In order to get more profit, a coherent decision of delocalization should be based on an evaluation of all the operational and financial characteristics associated with such movement. Therefore, it is interesting to model these new constraints and integrate them in a more global decision model. The established model will enable to measure how much these financial constraints impact the decision of delocalization and will give new helpful directives for enterprise managers.

Keywords: Delocalization, intragroup transaction, multinational firms, optimization model, supply chain management, transfer pricing.

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241 A Markov Chain Model for Load-Balancing Based and Service Based RAT Selection Algorithms in Heterogeneous Networks

Authors: Abdallah Al Sabbagh

Abstract:

Next Generation Wireless Network (NGWN) is expected to be a heterogeneous network which integrates all different Radio Access Technologies (RATs) through a common platform. A major challenge is how to allocate users to the most suitable RAT for them. An optimized solution can lead to maximize the efficient use of radio resources, achieve better performance for service providers and provide Quality of Service (QoS) with low costs to users. Currently, Radio Resource Management (RRM) is implemented efficiently for the RAT that it was developed. However, it is not suitable for a heterogeneous network. Common RRM (CRRM) was proposed to manage radio resource utilization in the heterogeneous network. This paper presents a user level Markov model for a three co-located RAT networks. The load-balancing based and service based CRRM algorithms have been studied using the presented Markov model. A comparison for the performance of load-balancing based and service based CRRM algorithms is studied in terms of traffic distribution, new call blocking probability, vertical handover (VHO) call dropping probability and throughput.

Keywords: Heterogeneous Wireless Network, Markov chain model, load-balancing based and service based algorithm, CRRM algorithms, Beyond 3G network.

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240 Mitigating the Cost of Empty Container Repositioning through the Virtual Container Yard: An Appraisal of Carriers’ Perceptions

Authors: L. Edirisinghe, Z. Jin, A. W. Wijeratne, R. Mudunkotuwa

Abstract:

Empty container repositioning is a fundamental problem faced by the shipping industry. The virtual container yard is a novel strategy underpinning the container interchange between carriers that could substantially reduce this ever-increasing shipping cost. This paper evaluates the shipping industry perception of the virtual container yard using chi-square tests. It examines if the carriers perceive that the selected independent variables, namely culture, organization, decision, marketing, attitudes, legal, independent, complexity, and stakeholders of carriers, impact the efficiency and benefits of the virtual container yard. There are two major findings of the research. Firstly, carriers view that complexity, attitudes, and stakeholders may impact the effectiveness of container interchange and may influence the perceived benefits of the virtual container yard. Secondly, the three factors of legal, organization, and decision influence only the perceived benefits of the virtual container yard. Accordingly, the implementation of the virtual container yard will be influenced by six key factors, namely complexity, attitudes, stakeholders, legal, organization and decision. Since the virtual container yard could reduce overall shipping costs, it is vital to examine the carriers’ perception of this concept.

Keywords: Virtual container yard, imbalance, management, inventory.

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239 Semisolid Structure and Parameters for A360 Aluminum Alloy Prepared by Mechanical Stirring

Authors: MM.Kaykha, A. Kamarei, M. Safari, V. Arbabi

Abstract:

Semisolid metal processing uses solid–liquid slurries containing fine and globular solid particles uniformly distributed in a liquid matrix, which can be handled as a solid and flow like a liquid. In the recent years, many methods have been introduced for the production of semisolid slurries since it is scientifically sound and industrially viable with such preferred microstructures called thixotropic microstructures as feedstock materials. One such process that needs very low equipment investment and running costs is the cooling slope. In this research by using a mechanical stirrer slurry maker constructed by the authors, the effects of mechanical stirring parameters such as: stirring time, stirring temperature and stirring Speed on micro-structure and mechanical properties of A360 aluminum alloy in semi-solid forming, are investigated. It is determined that mold temperature and holding time of part in temperature of 580ºC have a great effect on micro-structure and mechanical properties(stirring temperature of 585ºC, stirring time of 20 minutes and stirring speed of 425 RPM). By optimizing the forming parameters, dendrite microstructure changes to globular and mechanical properties improves. This is because of breaking and globularzing dendrites of primary α-AL.

Keywords: Semi-Solid Forming, Mechanical properties, Shear Rate.

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238 Influence of Environmental Temperature on Dairy Herd Performance and Behaviour

Authors: L. Krpalkova, N. O' Mahony, A. Carvalho, S. Campbell, S. Harapanahalli, J. Walsh

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The objective of this study was to determine the effects of environmental stressors on the performance of lactating dairy cows and discuss some future trends. There exists a relationship between the meteorological data and milk yield prediction accuracy in pasture-based dairy systems. New precision technologies are available and are being developed to improve the sustainability of the dairy industry. Some of these technologies focus on welfare of individual animals on dairy farms. These technologies allow the automatic identification of animal behaviour and health events, greatly increasing overall herd health and yield while reducing animal health inspection demands and long-term animal healthcare costs. The data set consisted of records from 489 dairy cows at two dairy farms and temperature measured from the nearest meteorological weather station in 2018. The effects of temperature on milk production and behaviour of animals were analyzed. The statistical results indicate different effects of temperature on milk yield and behaviour. The “comfort zone” for animals is in the range 10 °C to 20 °C. Dairy cows out of this zone had to decrease or increase their metabolic heat production, and it affected their milk production and behaviour.

Keywords: Behaviour, milk yield, temperature, precision technologies.

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237 Two Area Power Systems Economic Dispatch Problem Solving Considering Transmission Capacity Constraints

Authors: M. Zarei, A. Roozegar, R. Kazemzadeh, J.M. Kauffmann

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This paper describes an efficient and practical method for economic dispatch problem in one and two area electrical power systems with considering the constraint of the tie transmission line capacity constraint. Direct search method (DSM) is used with some equality and inequality constraints of the production units with any kind of fuel cost function. By this method, it is possible to use several inequality constraints without having difficulty for complex cost functions or in the case of unavailability of the cost function derivative. To minimize the number of total iterations in searching, process multi-level convergence is incorporated in the DSM. Enhanced direct search method (EDSM) for two area power system will be investigated. The initial calculation step size that causes less iterations and then less calculation time is presented. Effect of the transmission tie line capacity, between areas, on economic dispatch problem and on total generation cost will be studied; line compensation and active power with reactive power dispatch are proposed to overcome the high generation costs for this multi-area system.

Keywords: Economic dispatch, Power System Operation, Direct Search Method, Transmission Capacity Constraint.

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236 Proposing of an Adaptable Land Readjustment Model for Developing of the Informal Settlements in Kabul City

Authors: Habibi Said Mustafa, Hiroko Ono

Abstract:

Since 2006, Afghanistan is dealing with one of the most dramatic trend of urban movement in its history, cities and towns are expanding in size and number. Kabul is the capital of Afghanistan and as well as the fast-growing city in the Asia. The influx of the returnees from neighbor countries and other provinces of Afghanistan caused high rate of artificial growth which slums increased. As an unwanted consequence of this growth, today informal settlements have covered a vast portion of the city. Land Readjustment (LR) has proved to be an important tool for developing informal settlements and reorganizing urban areas but its implementation always varies from country to country and region to region within the countries. Consequently, to successfully develop the informal settlements in Kabul, we need to define an Afghan model of LR specifically for Afghanistan which needs to incorporate all those factors related to the socio-economic condition of the country. For this purpose, a part of the old city of Kabul has selected as a study area which is located near the Central Business District (CBD). After the further analysis and incorporating all needed factors, the result shows a positive potential for the implementation of an adaptable Land Readjustment model for Kabul city which is more sustainable and socio-economically friendly. It will enhance quality of life and provide better urban services for the residents. Moreover, it will set a vision and criteria by which sustainable developments shall proceed in other similar informal settlements of Kabul.

Keywords: Adaptation, informal settlements, Kabul, land readjustment, preservation.

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235 A Hybrid Algorithm for Collaborative Transportation Planning among Carriers

Authors: Elham Jelodari Mamaghani, Christian Prins, Haoxun Chen

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In this paper, there is concentration on collaborative transportation planning (CTP) among multiple carriers with pickup and delivery requests and time windows. This problem is a vehicle routing problem with constraints from standard vehicle routing problems and new constraints from a real-world application. In the problem, each carrier has a finite number of vehicles, and each request is a pickup and delivery request with time window. Moreover, each carrier has reserved requests, which must be served by itself, whereas its exchangeable requests can be outsourced to and served by other carriers. This collaboration among carriers can help them to reduce total transportation costs. A mixed integer programming model is proposed to the problem. To solve the model, a hybrid algorithm that combines Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing (GASA) is proposed. This algorithm takes advantages of GASA at the same time. After tuning the parameters of the algorithm with the Taguchi method, the experiments are conducted and experimental results are provided for the hybrid algorithm. The results are compared with those obtained by a commercial solver. The comparison indicates that the GASA significantly outperforms the commercial solver.

Keywords: Centralized collaborative transportation, collaborative transportation with pickup and delivery, collaborative transportation with time windows, hybrid algorithm of GA and SA.

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234 Customer Satisfaction and Effective HRM Policies: Customer and Employee Satisfaction

Authors: S. Anastasiou, C. Nathanailides

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The purpose of this study is to examine the possible link between employee and customer satisfaction. The service provided by employees, help to build a good relationship with customers and can help at increasing their loyalty. Published data for job satisfaction and indicators of customer services of banks were gathered from relevant published works which included data from five different countries. The scores of customers and employees satisfaction of the different published works were transformed and normalized to the scale of 1 to 100. The data were analyzed and a regression analysis of the two parameters was used to describe the link between employee’s satisfaction and customer’s satisfaction. Assuming that employee satisfaction has a significant influence on customer’s service and the resulting customer satisfaction, the reviewed data indicate that employee’s satisfaction contributes significantly on the level of customer satisfaction in the Banking sector. There was a significant correlation between the two parameters (Pearson correlation R2=0.52 P<0.05). The reviewed data indicate that published data support the hypothesis that practical evidence link these two parameters. During the recent global economic crisis, the financial services sector was affected severely and job security, remuneration and recruitment of personnel of banks was in many countries, including Greece, significantly reduced. Nevertheless, modern organizations should always consider their personnel as a capital, which is the driving force for success in the future. Appropriate human resource management policies can increase the level of job satisfaction of the personnel with positive consequences for the level of customer’s satisfaction.

Keywords: Job satisfaction, job performance, customer service, banks, human resources management.

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233 CFD Prediction of the Round Elbow Fitting Loss Coefficient

Authors: Ana Paula P. dos Santos, Claudia R. Andrade, Edson L. Zaparoli

Abstract:

Pressure loss in ductworks is an important factor to be considered in design of engineering systems such as power-plants, refineries, HVAC systems to reduce energy costs. Ductwork can be composed by straight ducts and different types of fittings (elbows, transitions, converging and diverging tees and wyes). Duct fittings are significant sources of pressure loss in fluid distribution systems. Fitting losses can be even more significant than equipment components such as coils, filters, and dampers. At the present work, a conventional 90o round elbow under turbulent incompressible airflow is studied. Mass, momentum, and k-e turbulence model equations are solved employing the finite volume method. The SIMPLE algorithm is used for the pressure-velocity coupling. In order to validate the numerical tool, the elbow pressure loss coefficient is determined using the same conditions to compare with ASHRAE database. Furthermore, the effect of Reynolds number variation on the elbow pressure loss coefficient is investigated. These results can be useful to perform better preliminary design of air distribution ductworks in air conditioning systems.

Keywords: Duct fitting, Pressure loss, Elbow.

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232 Land Layout and Urban Design of New Cities in Underdeveloped Areas of China: A Case Study of Xixian New Area

Authors: Libin Ouyang

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China has experienced a very fast urbanization process in the past two decades. Due to the uncoordinated characteristics of regional development in China, a large number of people from rural areas or small towns have flooded into regional central cities, which are building new cities around them due to the shortage of construction land or the need for urban development. However, the construction of some new cities has not achieved the expected effect, the absorption capacity of industry and population is limited, and the phenomenon of capital and land waste is obvious. This paper takes Xixian New Area in Shaanxi Province, an inland area in Northwest China, as an example, and tries to analyze the reasons for the lack of vitality in Xixian New Area from the perspectives of land use layout and urban design. This paper will also select the Energy-Finance-Trade Start-up Area in Xixian New Area as an important research site, and study how to optimize the land use layout and urban design to ease the population of big cities, effectively solve the problems of big cities, improve the vitality and attractiveness of the new city, and promote the sustainable development of the new city. The study can provide reference for urban planning practitioners and policy makers, provide theoretical help for the construction of new cities in other underdeveloped regions of China, and provide certain case references for the construction of cities in other developing countries in the process of rapid urbanization.

Keywords: New city, land use layout, urban design, urban planning.

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231 Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models

Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.

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230 Evaluation of Urban Land Development Direction in Kabul City, Afghanistan

Authors: Ahmad Sharif Ahmadi, Yoshitaka Kajita

Abstract:

Kabul, the capital and largest city in Afghanistan has been experiencing a massive population expansion and fast economic development in last decade, in which urban land has increasingly expanded and formed a high informal development territory in the city. This paper investigates the urban land development direction based on the integrated urbanization trends in Kabul city since the last and the fastest ever urban land growth period (1999-2008), which is parallel with the establishment of the new government in Afghanistan. Considering the existing challenges in terms of informal settlements, squatter settlements, the population expansion of the city, and fast economic development, as well as the huge influx of returning refugees from neighboring countries, and the sprawl direction of urbanization of the Kabul city urban fringes, this research focuses on the possible urban land development direction and trends for the city. The paper studies the feasible future land development direction of Kabul city in the northern part called Shamali basin, in which district 17 is the gateway for future development. The area has much developable area including eight districts of Kabul province, and the vast area of Parwan and Kapisa provinces. The northern area of the Kabul city generally has favorable conditions for further urbanization from the city. It is a large and relatively flat area of area in the northern part of Kabul city, with ample water resources available from the Panjshir basin as a base principle of land development direction in the area.

Keywords: Kabul city, land development trends, urban land development, urbanization.

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229 Automatic Adjustment of Thresholds via Closed-Loop Feedback Mechanism for Solder Paste Inspection

Authors: Chia-Chen Wei, Pack Hsieh, Jeffrey Chen

Abstract:

Surface Mount Technology (SMT) is widely used in the area of the electronic assembly in which the electronic components are mounted to the surface of the printed circuit board (PCB). Most of the defects in the SMT process are mainly related to the quality of solder paste printing. These defects lead to considerable manufacturing costs in the electronics assembly industry. Therefore, the solder paste inspection (SPI) machine for controlling and monitoring the amount of solder paste printing has become an important part of the production process. So far, the setting of the SPI threshold is based on statistical analysis and experts’ experiences to determine the appropriate threshold settings. Because the production data are not normal distribution and there are various variations in the production processes, defects related to solder paste printing still occur. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes an online machine learning algorithm, called the automatic threshold adjustment (ATA) algorithm, and closed-loop architecture in the SMT process to determine the best threshold settings. Simulation experiments prove that our proposed threshold settings improve the accuracy from 99.85% to 100%.

Keywords: Big data analytics, Industry 4.0, SPI threshold setting, surface mount technology.

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228 Design and Fabrication of a Parabolic Trough Collector and Experimental Investigation of Wind Impact on Direct Steam Production in Tehran

Authors: H. Akhbari, M. Bidi, A. Bakhtiari, S. Eslami

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The present paper aims to the techno-economic feasibility of enhancing low-cost parabolic trough collectors in the light of developing the use of solar energy in under-developed regions where expensive high-tech solar devices cannot be afforded. Moreover, the collector is aimed to produce steam so that its performance is based on heat which can be discovered. In this regard, the manufacturing process and the detailed design models in Solidworks software are elaborated. Furthermore, the colletor’s material is chosen in a way to minimize the costs. Finally, to assess the performance of the built collector, it is installed in the site of Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, and the values of the effective peripheral parameters, such as temperature, wind speed, and most importantly, solar irradiance, are recorded simultaneously in June. According to the results obtained, the manufactured collector with the aperture area of 2 m2 (1×2 m) is capable of producing 350 ml.h-1 steam. Also, the wind influence is comprehensively investigated in this paper. As a case in point, it was measured that as the wind speed maximized to 9.77 km/h, the amount of steam outlet is minimized to 580 ml.

Keywords: Direct steam production, design and fabrication parabolic trough collector, solar water heater, wind impact, experimental investigation.

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227 Reverse Logistics in Clothing Recycling: A Case Study in Chengdu

Authors: Guo Yan

Abstract:

Clothing recycling bin is a traditional way to collect textile waste in many areas. In the clothing recycling business, the transportation cost normally takes over 50% of total costs. This case gives a good way to reduce transportation cost by reverse logistics system. In this reverse logistics system, there are offline strategic alliance partners, such as transport firms, convenience stores, laundries, and post office which are integrated onto the mobile APP. Offline strategic alliance partners provide the service of textile waste collection, and transportation by their vacant vehicles return journey from convenience stores, laundries and post offices to sorting centers. The results of the case study provide the strategic alliance with a valuable and light - asset business model by using the logistics of offline memberships. The company in this case just focuses on textile waste sorting, reuse, recycling etc. The research method of this paper is a case study of a clothing recycling company in Chengdu by field research and interview; the analysis is based on the theory of the reverse logistics system.

Keywords: Closed-loop recycles system, clothing recycling, end-of-life clothing, sharing economy, strategic alliance, reverse logistics.

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226 Optimal Green Facility Planning - Implementation of Organic Rankine Cycle System for Factory Waste Heat Recovery

Authors: Chun-Wei Lin, Yu-Lin Chen

Abstract:

As global industry developed rapidly, the energy demand also rises simultaneously. In the production process, there’s a lot of energy consumed in the process. Formally, the energy used in generating the heat in the production process. In the total energy consumption, 40% of the heat was used in process heat, mechanical work, chemical energy and electricity. The remaining 50% were released into the environment. It will cause energy waste and environment pollution. There are many ways for recovering the waste heat in factory. Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) system can produce electricity and reduce energy costs by recovering the waste of low temperature heat in the factory. In addition, ORC is the technology with the highest power generating efficiency in low-temperature heat recycling. However, most of factories executives are still hesitated because of the high implementation cost of the ORC system, even a lot of heat are wasted. Therefore, this study constructs a nonlinear mathematical model of waste heat recovery equipment configuration to maximize profits. A particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed to generate the optimal facility installation plan for the ORC system.

Keywords: Green facility planning, organic rankine cycle, particle swarm optimization, waste heat recovery.

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225 Financing Decision and Productivity Growth for the Venture Capital Industry Using High-Order Fuzzy Time Series

Authors: Shang-En Yu

Abstract:

Human society, there are many uncertainties, such as economic growth rate forecast of the financial crisis, many scholars have, since the the Song Chissom two scholars in 1993 the concept of the so-called fuzzy time series (Fuzzy Time Series)different mode to deal with these problems, a previous study, however, usually does not consider the relevant variables selected and fuzzy process based solely on subjective opinions the fuzzy semantic discrete, so can not objectively reflect the characteristics of the data set, in addition to carrying outforecasts are often fuzzy rules as equally important, failed to consider the importance of each fuzzy rule. For these reasons, the variable selection (Factor Selection) through self-organizing map (Self-Organizing Map, SOM) and proposed high-end weighted multivariate fuzzy time series model based on fuzzy neural network (Fuzzy-BPN), and using the the sequential weighted average operator (Ordered Weighted Averaging operator, OWA) weighted prediction. Therefore, in order to verify the proposed method, the Taiwan stock exchange (Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation) Taiwan Weighted Stock Index (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, TAIEX) as experimental forecast target, in order to filter the appropriate variables in the experiment Finally, included in other studies in recent years mode in conjunction with this study, the results showed that the predictive ability of this study further improve.

Keywords: Heterogeneity, residential mortgage loans, foreclosure.

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224 Value Engineering and Its Effect in Reduction of Industrial Organization Energy Expenses

Authors: Habibollah Najafi, Amir Abbas Yazdani, Hosseinali Nahavandi

Abstract:

The review performed on the condition of energy consumption & rate in Iran, shows that unfortunately the subject of optimization and conservation of energy in active industries of country lacks a practical & effective method and in most factories, the energy consumption and rate is more than in similar industries of industrial countries. The increasing demand of electrical energy and the overheads which it imposes on the organization, forces companies to search for suitable approaches to optimize energy consumption and demand management. Application of value engineering techniques is among these approaches. Value engineering is considered a powerful tool for improving profitability. These tools are used for reduction of expenses, increasing profits, quality improvement, increasing market share, performing works in shorter durations, more efficient utilization of sources & etc. In this article, we shall review the subject of value engineering and its capabilities for creating effective transformations in industrial organizations, in order to reduce energy costs & the results have been investigated and described during a case study in Mazandaran wood and paper industries, the biggest consumer of energy in north of Iran, for the purpose of presenting the effects of performed tasks in optimization of energy consumption by utilizing value engineering techniques in one case study.

Keywords: Value Engineering (VE), Expense, Energy, Industrial

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223 Impact of Solar Energy Based Power Grid for Future Prospective of Pakistan

Authors: Muhammd Usman Sardar, Mazhar Hussain Baloch, Muhammad Shahbaz Ahmad, Zahir Javed Paracha

Abstract:

Shortfall of electrical energy in Pakistan is a challenge adversely affecting its industrial output and social growth. As elsewhere, Pakistan derives its electrical energy from a number of conventional sources. The exhaustion of petroleum and conventional resources, the rising costs coupled with extremely adverse climatic effects are taking its toll especially on the under-developed countries like Pakistan. As alternate, renewable energy sources like hydropower, solar, wind, even bio-energy and a mix of some or all of them could provide a credible alternative to the conventional energy resources that would not only be cleaner but sustainable as well. As a model, solar energy-based power grid for the near future has been attempted to offset the energy shortfalls as a mix with our existing sustainable natural energy resources. An assessment of solar energy potential for electricity generation is being presented for fulfilling the energy demands with higher level of reliability and sustainability. This model is based on the premise that solar energy potential of Pakistan is not only reliable but also sustainable. This research estimates the present & future approaching renewable energy resource specially the impact of solar energy based power grid for mitigating energy shortage in Pakistan.

Keywords: Powergrid network, solar photovoltaic (SPV) setups, solar power generation, solar energy technology (SET).

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222 Thermal and Morphological Evaluation of Chemically Pretreated Sugarcane Bagasse

Authors: Glauber Cruz, Patrícia A. S. Monteiro, Carlos E. M. Braz, Paulo Seleghin Jr., Igor Polikarpov, Paula M.Crnkovic

Abstract:

Enzymatic hydrolysis is one of the major steps involved in the conversion from sugarcane bagasse to yield ethanol. This process offers potential for yields and selectivity higher, lower energy costs and milder operating conditions than chemical processes. However, the presence of some factors such as lignin content, crystallinity degree of the cellulose, and particle sizes, limits the digestibility of the cellulose present in the lignocellulosic biomasses. Pretreatment aims to improve the access of the enzyme to the substrate. In this study sugarcane bagasse was submitted chemical pretreatment that consisted of two consecutive steps, the first with dilute sulfuric acid (1 % (v/v) H2SO4), and the second with alkaline solutions with different concentrations of NaOH (1, 2, 3 and 4 % (w/v)). Thermal Analysis (TG/ DTG and DTA) was used to evaluate hemicellulose, cellulose and lignin contents in the samples. Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) was used to evaluate the morphological structures of the in natura and chemically treated samples. Results showed that pretreatments were effective in chemical degradation of lignocellulosic materials of the samples, and also was possible to observe the morphological changes occurring in the biomasses after pretreatments.

Keywords: Alkaline solutions, bioethanol production, dilute acid, enzymatic hydrolysis, lignocellulosic biomass.

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