Search results for: rupture risk prediction

Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Huda Yasin, Madiha Yasin, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper we use data mining techniques to investigate factors that contribute significantly to enhancing the risk of acute coronary syndrome. We assume that the dependent variable is diagnosis – with dichotomous values showing presence or  absence of disease. We have applied binary regression to the factors affecting the dependent variable. The data set has been taken from two different cardiac hospitals of Karachi, Pakistan. We have total sixteen variables out of which one is assumed dependent and other 15 are independent variables. For better performance of the regression model in predicting acute coronary syndrome, data reduction techniques like principle component analysis is applied. Based on results of data reduction, we have considered only 14 out of sixteen factors.

Keywords: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS), binary logistic regression analyses, myocardial ischemia (MI), principle component analysis, unstable angina (U.A.).

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Authors: Shigeaki Sakurai, Ryohei Orihara

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This paper proposes an improvement method of classification efficiency in a classification model. The model is used in a risk search system and extracts specific labels from articles posted at bulletin board sites. The system can analyze the important discussions composed of the articles. The improvement method introduces ensemble learning methods that use multiple classification models. Also, it introduces expressions related to the specific labels into generation of word vectors. The paper applies the improvement method to articles collected from three bulletin board sites selected by users and verifies the effectiveness of the improvement method.

Keywords: Text mining, Risk search system, Corporate reputation, Bulletin board site, Ensemble learning

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Authors: Ando Leppiman, Kati Kõrbe Kaare, Ott Koppel

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Growing demand for gas has rekindled a debate on gas security of supply due to supply interruptions, increasing gas prices, cross-border bottlenecks and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances. Security of supply is defined mostly as an infrastructure package to satisfy N-1 criteria. In case of Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Lithuania all the gas infrastructure is built to supply natural gas only from one single supplier, Russia. In 2012 almost 100% of natural gas to the Eastern Baltic Region was supplied by Gazprom. Under such circumstances infrastructure N-1 criteria does not guarantee security of supply. In the Eastern Baltic Region, the assessment of risk of gas supply disruption has been worked out by applying the method of risk scenarios. There are various risks to be tackled in Eastern Baltic States in terms of improving security of supply, such as single supplier risk, physical infrastructure risk, regulatory gap, fair price and competition. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the energy security of the Eastern Baltic Region within the framework of the European Union’s policies and to make recommendations on how to better guarantee the energy security of the region.

Keywords: Security of supply, supply routes for natural gas, energy balance, diversified supply options, common regulative package.

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Authors: R. Testoni, R. Levizzari, M. De Salve

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Radioactive waste management is fundamental to safeguard population and environment by radiological risks. Environmental assessment of a site, where nuclear activities are located, allows understanding the hydro geological system and the radionuclides transport in groundwater and subsoil. Use of dedicated software is the basis of transport phenomena investigation and for dynamic scenarios prediction; this permits to understand the evolution of accidental contamination events, but at the same time the potentiality of the software itself can be verified. The aim of this paper is to perform a numerical analysis by means of HYDRUS 1D code, so as to evaluate radionuclides transport in a nuclear site in Piedmont region (Italy). In particular, the behavior in vadose zone was investigated. An iterative assessment process was performed for risk assessment of radioactive contamination. The analysis therein developed considers the following aspects: i) hydro geological site characterization; ii) individuation of the main intrinsic and external site factors influencing water flow and radionuclides transport phenomena; iii) software potential for radionuclides leakage simulation purposes.

Keywords: HYDRUS 1D, radionuclides transport phenomena, site characterization.

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Authors: M. Breška, I. Peruš, V. Stankovski

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The number of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) used for predicting peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the number of earthquake recordings that have been used for fitting these equations has increased in the past decades. The current PF-L database contains 3550 recordings. Since the GMPEs frequently model the peak ground acceleration the goal of the present study was to refit a selection of 44 of the existing equation models for PGA in light of the latest data. The algorithm Levenberg-Marquardt was used for fitting the coefficients of the equations and the results are evaluated both quantitatively by presenting the root mean squared error (RMSE) and qualitatively by drawing graphs of the five best fitted equations. The RMSE was found to be as low as 0.08 for the best equation models. The newly estimated coefficients vary from the values published in the original works.

Keywords: Ground Motion Prediction Equations, Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, refitting PF-L database.

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Authors: Tebogo Emma Makaba, Barnabas Ndlovu Gatsheni

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The cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria both located in the Gauteng province are separated by a distance of 58 km. The traffic queues on the Ben Schoeman freeway which connects these two cities can stretch for almost 1.5 km. Vehicle traffic congestion impacts negatively on the business and the commuter’s quality of life. The goal of this paper is to identify variables that influence the flow of traffic and to design a vehicle traffic prediction model, which will predict the traffic flow pattern in advance. The model will unable motorist to be able to make appropriate travel decisions ahead of time. The data used was collected by Mikro’s Traffic Monitoring (MTM). Multi-Layer perceptron (MLP) was used individually to construct the model and the MLP was also combined with Bagging ensemble method to training the data. The cross—validation method was used for evaluating the models. The results obtained from the techniques were compared using predictive and prediction costs. The cost was computed using combination of the loss matrix and the confusion matrix. The predicted models designed shows that the status of the traffic flow on the freeway can be predicted using the following parameters travel time, average speed, traffic volume and day of month. The implications of this work is that commuters will be able to spend less time travelling on the route and spend time with their families. The logistics industry will save more than twice what they are currently spending.

Keywords: Bagging ensemble methods, confusion matrix, multi-layer perceptron, vehicle traffic flow.

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Authors: Srinath Shetty K., Shivashankar R., Rashmi P. Shetty

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Earth reinforcing techniques have become useful and economical to solve problems related to difficult grounds and provide satisfactory foundation performance. In this context, this paper uses radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) for predicting the bearing pressure of strip footing on reinforced granular bed overlying weak soil. The inputs for the neural network models included plate width, thickness of granular bed and number of layers of reinforcements, settlement ratio, water content, dry density, cohesion and angle of friction. The results indicated that RBFNN model exhibited more than 84 % prediction accuracy, thereby demonstrating its application in a geotechnical problem.

Keywords: Bearing pressure, granular bed, radial basis function neural network, strip footing.

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Authors: J-P. Skön, M. Johansson, M. Raatikainen, K. Leiviskä, M. Kolehmainen

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The use of neural networks is popular in various building applications such as prediction of heating load, ventilation rate and indoor temperature. Significant is, that only few papers deal with indoor carbon dioxide (CO2) prediction which is a very good indicator of indoor air quality (IAQ). In this study, a data-driven modelling method based on multilayer perceptron network for indoor air carbon dioxide in an apartment building is developed. Temperature and humidity measurements are used as input variables to the network. Motivation for this study derives from the following issues. First, measuring carbon dioxide is expensive and sensors power consumptions is high and secondly, this leads to short operating times of battery-powered sensors. The results show that predicting CO2 concentration based on relative humidity and temperature measurements, is difficult. Therefore, more additional information is needed.

Keywords: Indoor air quality, Modelling, Neural networks

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Authors: Tanida Julvanichpong

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Exercise has been regarded as a necessary and important aspect to enhance physical performance and psychology health. Body weight statistics of students in junior high school students in Chonburi Province beyond a standard risk of obesity. Promoting exercise among Junior high school students in Chonburi Province, essential knowledge concerning factors influencing exercise is needed. Therefore, this study aims to (1) determine the levels of perceived exercise behavior, exercise behavior in the past, perceived barriers to exercise, perceived benefits of exercise, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, feelings associated with exercise behavior, influence of the family to exercise, influence of friends to exercise, and the perceived influence of the environment on exercise. (2) examine the predicting ability of each of the above factors while including personal factors (sex, educational level) for exercise behavior. Pender’s Health Promotion Model was used as a guide for the study. Sample included 652 students in junior high schools, Chonburi Provience. The samples were selected by Multi-Stage Random Sampling. Data Collection has been done by using self-administered questionnaires. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient, Eta, and stepwise multiple regression analysis. The research results showed that: 1. Perceived benefits of exercise, influence of teacher, influence of environmental, feelings associated with exercise behavior were at a high level. Influence of the family to exercise, exercise behavior, exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise and influence of friends were at a moderate level. Perceived barriers to exercise were at a low level. 2. Exercise behavior was positively significant related to perceived benefits of exercise, influence of the family to exercise, exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, influence of friends, influence of teacher, influence of environmental and feelings associated with exercise behavior (p < .01, respectively) and was negatively significant related to educational level and perceived barriers to exercise (p < .01, respectively). Exercise behavior was significant related to sex (Eta = 0.243, p=.000). 3. Exercise behavior in the past, influence of the family to exercise significantly contributed 60.10 percent of the variance to the prediction of exercise behavior in male students (p < .01). Exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, perceived barriers to exercise, and educational level significantly contributed 52.60 percent of the variance to the prediction of exercise behavior in female students (p < .01).

Keywords: Predictive factors, exercise behaviors, junior high school.

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Authors: R. Leelaruji, V. Knazkins

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This paper proposes a methodology for mitigating the occurrence of cascading failure in stressed power systems. The methodology is essentially based on predicting voltage instability in the power system using a voltage stability index and then devising a corrective action in order to increase the voltage stability margin. The paper starts with a brief description of the cascading failure mechanism which is probable root cause of severe blackouts. Then, the voltage instability indices are introduced in order to evaluate stability limit. The aim of the analysis is to assure that the coordination of protection, by adopting load shedding scheme, capable of enhancing performance of the system after the major location of instability is determined. Finally, the proposed method to generate instability prediction is introduced.

Keywords: Blackouts, cascading failure, voltage stability indices, singular value decomposition, load shedding.

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Authors: Chin-Ming Hong, Chin-Teng Lin, Chao-Yen Huang, Yi-Ming Lin

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In this article, we propose an Intelligent Medical Diagnostic System (IMDS) accessible through common web-based interface, to on-line perform initial screening for osteoporosis. The fundamental approaches which construct the proposed system are mainly based on the fuzzy-neural theory, which can exhibit superiority over other conventional technologies in many fields. In diagnosis process, users simply answer a series of directed questions to the system, and then they will immediately receive a list of results which represents the risk degrees of osteoporosis. According to clinical testing results, it is shown that the proposed system can provide the general public or even health care providers with a convenient, reliable, inexpensive approach to osteoporosis risk assessment.

Keywords: BMD, osteoporosis, IMDS, fuzzy-neural theory, web interface.

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Authors: Chiu-Wen Chen, Chih-Feng Chen, Cheng-Di Dong

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The distribution, enrichment, accumulation, and potential ecological risk of copper (Cu) in the surface sediments of northern Kaohsiung Harbor, Taiwan were investigated. Sediment samples from 12 locations of northern Kaohsiung Harbor were collected and characterized for Cu, aluminum, water content, organic matter, total nitrogen, total phosphorous, total grease and grain size. Results showed that the Cu concentrations varied from 6.9–244 mg/kg with an average of 109±66 mg/kg. The spatial distribution of Cu reveals that the Cu concentration is relatively high in the river mouth region, and gradually diminishes toward the harbor entrance region. This indicates that upstream industrial and municipal wastewater discharges along the river bank are major sources of Cu pollution. Results from the enrichment factor and geo-accumulation index analyses imply that the sediments collected from the river mouth can be characterized between moderate and moderately severe degree enrichment and between none to medium and moderate accumulation of Cu, respectively. However, results of potential ecological risk index indicate that the sediment has low ecological potential risk.

Keywords: Accumulation, ecological risk, enrichment, copper, sediment.

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Authors: Bilal Alatas, Ahmet Arslan

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The main goal of data mining is to extract accurate, comprehensible and interesting knowledge from databases that may be considered as large search spaces. In this paper, a new, efficient type of Genetic Algorithm (GA) called uniform two-level GA is proposed as a search strategy to discover truly interesting, high-level prediction rules, a difficult problem and relatively little researched, rather than discovering classification knowledge as usual in the literatures. The proposed method uses the advantage of uniform population method and addresses the task of generalized rule induction that can be regarded as a generalization of the task of classification. Although the task of generalized rule induction requires a lot of computations, which is usually not satisfied with the normal algorithms, it was demonstrated that this method increased the performance of GAs and rapidly found interesting rules.

Keywords: Classification rule mining, data mining, genetic algorithms.

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar

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Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a holistic documentation process for operational visualization, design coordination, estimation and project scheduling. BIM software defines objects parametrically and it is a tool for virtual reality. Primary advantage of implementing BIM is the visual coordination of the building structure and systems such as Mechanical, Electrical and Plumbing (MEP) and it also identifies the possible conflicts between the building systems. This paper is an attempt to develop a risk based BIM model which would highlight the primary advantages of application of BIM pertaining to urban infrastructure transportation project. It has been observed that about 40% of the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) companies use BIM but primarily for their outsourced projects. Also, 65% of the respondents agree that BIM would be used quiet strongly for future construction projects in India. The 3D models developed with Revit 2015 software would reduce co-ordination problems amongst the architects, structural engineers, contractors and building service providers (MEP). Integration of risk management along with BIM would provide enhanced co-ordination, collaboration and high probability of successful completion of the complex infrastructure transportation project within stipulated time and cost frame.

Keywords: Building information modeling (BIM), infrastructure transportation, project risk management, underground metro rail.

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Authors: D. A. Farinde

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One of the most significant threats to the economy of a nation is the bankruptcy of its banks. This study evaluates the susceptibility of Nigerian banks to failure with a view to identifying ratios and financial data that are sensitive to solvency of the bank. Further, a predictive model is generated to guide all stakeholders in the industry. Thirty quoted banks that had published Annual Reports for the year preceding the consolidation i.e. year 2004 were selected. They were examined for distress using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Analysis. The model was used to analyze further reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria using published Annual Reports of twenty quoted banks for the year 2008 and 2011. The model can thus be used for future prediction of failure in the Nigerian banking system.

Keywords: Bank, Bankruptcy, Financial Ratios, Neural Network, Multilayer Perceptron, Predictive Model

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Authors: Ahmed Kayad Abdourazak, Abderafi Souad, Zejli Driss, Idriss Abdoulkader Ibrahim

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In this paper Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the solar irradiation in Djibouti for the first Time that is useful to the integration of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and sites selections for new or future solar plants as part of solar energy development. An ANN algorithm was developed to establish a forward/reverse correspondence between the latitude, longitude, altitude and monthly solar irradiation. For this purpose the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) data of eight Djibouti sites were used as training and testing in a standard three layers network with the back propagation algorithm of Lavenber-Marquardt. Results have shown a very good agreement for the solar irradiation prediction in Djibouti and proves that the proposed approach can be well used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar irradiation by providing so helpful information concerning sites selection, design and planning of solar plants.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, solar irradiation, concentrated solar power, Lavenberg-Marquardt.

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Authors: Mohsen Mohammadi, Toshio Fujimi

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High population and irregular urban development in Kabul city, Afghanistan's capital, are among factors that increase its vulnerability to earthquake disasters (on top of its location in a high seismic region); this can lead to widespread economic loss and casualties. This study aims to evaluate earthquake risks in Kabul's 13th district based on scientific data. The research data, which include hazard curves of Kabul, vulnerability curves, and a questionnaire survey through sampling in district 13, have been incorporated to develop risk curves. To estimate potential casualties, we used a set of M parameters in a model developed by Coburn and Spence. The results indicate that in the worst case scenario, more than 90% of district 13, which comprises mostly residential buildings, is exposed to high risk; this may lead to nearly 1000 million USD economic loss and 120 thousand casualties (equal to 25.88% of the 13th district's population) for a nighttime earthquake. To reduce risks, we present the reconstruction of the most vulnerable buildings, which are primarily adobe and masonry buildings. A comparison of risk reduction between reconstructing adobe and masonry buildings indicates that rebuilding adobe buildings would be more effective.

Keywords: Earthquake risk evaluation, Kabul, mitigation, vulnerability.

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Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

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In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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Authors: Gabriele Bedon, Marco Raciti Castelli, Ernesto Benini

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A dynamic stall-corrected Blade Element-Momentum algorithm based on a hybrid polar is validated through the comparison with Sandia experimental measurements on a 5-m diameter wind turbine of Troposkien shape. Different dynamic stall models are evaluated. The numerical predictions obtained using the extended aerodynamic coefficients provided by both Sheldal and Klimas and Raciti Castelli et al. are compared to experimental data, determining the potential of the hybrid database for the numerical prediction of vertical-axis wind turbine performances.

Keywords: Darrieus wind turbine, Blade Element-Momentum Theory, extended airfoil database, hybrid database, Sandia 5-m wind turbine.

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Authors: Perumal Nallagownden, Ravindra N. Mukerjee, Syafrudin Masri

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In a competitive energy market, system reliability should be maintained at all times. Power system operation being of online in nature, the energy balance requirements must be satisfied to ensure reliable operation the system. To achieve this, information regarding the expected status of the system, the scheduled transactions and the relevant inputs necessary to make either a transaction contract or a transmission contract operational, have to be made available in real time. The real time procedure proposed, facilitates this. This paper proposes a quadratic curve learning procedure, which enables a generator-s contribution to the retailer demand, power loss of transaction in a line at the retail end and its associated losses for an oncoming operating scenario to be predicted. Matlab program was used to test in on a 24-bus IEE Reliability Test System, and the results are found to be acceptable.

Keywords: Deregulation, learning coefficients, reliability, prediction, competitive energy market.

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Authors: Latha Parthiban, R. Subramanian

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Heart disease (HD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the modern society. Medical diagnosis is an important but complicated task that should be performed accurately and efficiently and its automation would be very useful. All doctors are unfortunately not equally skilled in every sub specialty and they are in many places a scarce resource. A system for automated medical diagnosis would enhance medical care and reduce costs. In this paper, a new approach based on coactive neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) was presented for prediction of heart disease. The proposed CANFIS model combined the neural network adaptive capabilities and the fuzzy logic qualitative approach which is then integrated with genetic algorithm to diagnose the presence of the disease. The performances of the CANFIS model were evaluated in terms of training performances and classification accuracies and the results showed that the proposed CANFIS model has great potential in predicting the heart disease.

Keywords: CANFIS, genetic algorithms, heart disease, membership function.

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Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

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Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.

Keywords: Wind energy project; uncertain resources; risks; Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: S. J. Matlan, M. Mukhlisin, M. R. Taha

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Characterization of the engineering behavior of unsaturated soil is dependent on the soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), a graphical representation of the relationship between water content or degree of saturation and soil suction. A reasonable description of the SWCC is thus important for the accurate prediction of unsaturated soil parameters. The measurement procedures for determining the SWCC, however, are difficult, expensive, and timeconsuming. During the past few decades, researchers have laid a major focus on developing empirical equations for predicting the SWCC, with a large number of empirical models suggested. One of the most crucial questions is how precisely existing equations can represent the SWCC. As different models have different ranges of capability, it is essential to evaluate the precision of the SWCC models used for each particular soil type for better SWCC estimation. It is expected that better estimation of SWCC would be achieved via a thorough statistical analysis of its distribution within a particular soil class. With this in view, a statistical analysis was conducted in order to evaluate the reliability of the SWCC prediction models against laboratory measurement. Optimization techniques were used to obtain the best-fit of the model parameters in four forms of SWCC equation, using laboratory data for relatively coarse-textured (i.e., sandy) soil. The four most prominent SWCCs were evaluated and computed for each sample. The result shows that the Brooks and Corey model is the most consistent in describing the SWCC for sand soil type. The Brooks and Corey model prediction also exhibit compatibility with samples ranging from low to high soil water content in which subjected to the samples that evaluated in this study.

Keywords: Soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), statistical analysis, unsaturated soil.

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Authors: Chiao-Chen Chang, Yang-Chieh Chin

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This study examines the issue of recommendation sources from the perspectives of gender and consumers- perceived risk, and validates a model for the antecedents of consumer online purchases. The method of obtaining quantitative data was that of the instrument of a survey questionnaire. Data were collected via questionnaires from 396 undergraduate students aged 18-24, and a multiple regression analysis was conducted to identify causal relationships. Empirical findings established the link between recommendation sources (word-of-mouth, advertising, and recommendation systems) and the likelihood of making online purchases and demonstrated the role of gender and perceived risk as moderators in this context. The results showed that the effects of word-of-mouth on online purchase intentions were stronger than those of advertising and recommendation systems. In addition, female consumers have less experience with online purchases, so they may be more likely than males to refer to recommendations during the decision-making process. The findings of the study will help marketers to address the recommendation factor which influences consumers- intention to purchase and to improve firm performances to meet consumer needs.

Keywords: Recommendation sources, Online purchaseintentions, Gender differences, Perceived risk.

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Authors: Dhahri Maher, Aouinet Hana

Abstract:

The presence of bubbles in the boundary layer introduces corrections into the log law, which must be taken into account. In this work, a logarithmic wall law was presented for bubbly two phase flows. The wall law presented in this work was based on the postulation of additional turbulent viscosity associated with bubble wakes in the boundary layer. The presented wall law contained empirical constant accounting both for shear induced turbulence interaction and for non-linearity of bubble. This constant was deduced from experimental data. The wall friction prediction achieved with the wall law was compared to the experimental data, in the case of a turbulent boundary layer developing on a vertical flat plate in the presence of millimetric bubbles. A very good agreement between experimental and numerical wall friction prediction was verified. The agreement was especially noticeable for the low void fraction when bubble induced turbulence plays a significant role.

Keywords: Bubbly flows, log law, boundary layer.

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Authors: Anjan Kumar Kakati, M. Chandrasekaran, Amitava Mandal, Amit Kumar Singh

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End milling process is one of the common metal cutting operations used for machining parts in manufacturing industry. It is usually performed at the final stage in manufacturing a product and surface roughness of the produced job plays an important role. In general, the surface roughness affects wear resistance, ductility, tensile, fatigue strength, etc., for machined parts and cannot be neglected in design. In the present work an experimental investigation of end milling of aluminium alloy with carbide tool is carried out and the effect of different cutting parameters on the response are studied with three-dimensional surface plots. An artificial neural network (ANN) is used to establish the relationship between the surface roughness and the input cutting parameters (i.e., spindle speed, feed, and depth of cut). The Matlab ANN toolbox works on feed forward back propagation algorithm is used for modeling purpose. 3-12-1 network structure having minimum average prediction error found as best network architecture for predicting surface roughness value. The network predicts surface roughness for unseen data and found that the result/prediction is better. For desired surface finish of the component to be produced there are many different combination of cutting parameters are available. The optimum cutting parameter for obtaining desired surface finish, to maximize tool life is predicted. The methodology is demonstrated, number of problems are solved and algorithm is coded in Matlab®.

Keywords: End milling, Surface roughness, Neural networks.

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Authors: S. Niksarlioglu, F. Kulahci

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Earthquakes are natural phenomena that occur with influence of a lot of parameters such as seismic activity, changing in the ground waters' motion, changing in the water-s temperature, etc. On the other hand, the radon gas concentrations in soil vary as nonlinear generally with earthquakes. Continuous measurement of the soil radon gas is very important for determination of characteristic of the seismic activity. The radon gas changes as continuous with strain occurring within the Earth-s surface during an earthquake and effects from the physical and the chemical processes such as soil structure, soil permeability, soil temperature, the barometric pressure, etc. Therefore, at the modeling researches are notsufficient to knowthe concentration ofradon gas. In this research, we determined relationships between radon emissions based on the environmental parameters and earthquakes occurring along the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), Turkiye and predicted magnitudes of some earthquakes with the artificial neural network (ANN) model.

Keywords: Earthquake, Modeling, Prediction, Radon.

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Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.

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Authors: Mai S. Mabrouk, Nahed H. Solouma, Abou-Bakr M. Youssef, Yasser M. Kadah

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Many digital signal processing, techniques have been used to automatically distinguish protein coding regions (exons) from non-coding regions (introns) in DNA sequences. In this work, we have characterized these sequences according to their nonlinear dynamical features such as moment invariants, correlation dimension, and largest Lyapunov exponent estimates. We have applied our model to a number of real sequences encoded into a time series using EIIP sequence indicators. In order to discriminate between coding and non coding DNA regions, the phase space trajectory was first reconstructed for coding and non-coding regions. Nonlinear dynamical features are extracted from those regions and used to investigate a difference between them. Our results indicate that the nonlinear dynamical characteristics have yielded significant differences between coding (CR) and non-coding regions (NCR) in DNA sequences. Finally, the classifier is tested on real genes where coding and non-coding regions are well known.

Keywords: Gene prediction, nonlinear dynamics, correlation dimension, Lyapunov exponent.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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