Search results for: modelling and analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9075

Search results for: modelling and analysis

8625 Predictive Analysis for Big Data: Extension of Classification and Regression Trees Algorithm

Authors: Ameur Abdelkader, Abed Bouarfa Hafida

Abstract:

Since its inception, predictive analysis has revolutionized the IT industry through its robustness and decision-making facilities. It involves the application of a set of data processing techniques and algorithms in order to create predictive models. Its principle is based on finding relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables. Past occurrences are exploited to predict and to derive the unknown outcome. With the advent of big data, many studies have suggested the use of predictive analytics in order to process and analyze big data. Nevertheless, they have been curbed by the limits of classical methods of predictive analysis in case of a large amount of data. In fact, because of their volumes, their nature (semi or unstructured) and their variety, it is impossible to analyze efficiently big data via classical methods of predictive analysis. The authors attribute this weakness to the fact that predictive analysis algorithms do not allow the parallelization and distribution of calculation. In this paper, we propose to extend the predictive analysis algorithm, Classification And Regression Trees (CART), in order to adapt it for big data analysis. The major changes of this algorithm are presented and then a version of the extended algorithm is defined in order to make it applicable for a huge quantity of data.

Keywords: Predictive analysis, big data, predictive analysis algorithms. CART algorithm.

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8624 An Innovative Approach to the Formulation of Connection Admission Control Problem

Authors: Carlo Bruni, Francesco Delli Priscoli, Giorgio Koch, Ilaria Marchetti

Abstract:

This paper proposes an innovative approach for the Connection Admission Control (CAC) problem. Starting from an abstract network modelling, the CAC problem is formulated in a technology independent fashion allowing the proposed concepts to be applied to any wireless and wired domain. The proposed CAC is decoupled from the other Resource Management procedures, but cooperates with them in order to guarantee the desired QoS requirements. Moreover, it is based on suitable performance measurements which, by using proper predictors, allow to forecast the domain dynamics in the next future. Finally, the proposed CAC control scheme is based on a feedback loop aiming at maximizing a suitable performance index accounting for the domain throughput, whilst respecting a set of constraints accounting for the QoS requirements.

Keywords: Network Management, Quality of Service (QoS) requirements, Optimal Control.

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8623 Modelling Export Dynamics in the CSEE Countries Using GVAR Model

Authors: S. Jakšić, B. Žmuk

Abstract:

The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables obtaining important information on spillover effects in the context of globalisation and rising international linkages. The results of the study indicate that for most of the CSEE countries, exports are mainly driven by domestic shocks, both in the short run and in the long run. This study is the first application of the GVAR model to studying the export dynamics in the CSEE countries and therefore the results of the study present an important empirical contribution.

Keywords: Export, GFEVD, Global VAR, International trade, weak exogeneity.

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8622 Influence of Surface Area on Dissolution of Additively Manufactured Polyvinyl Alcohol Tablets

Authors: Seyedebrahim Afkhami, Meisam Abdi, Reza Baserinia

Abstract:

Additive manufacturing is revolutionizing production in different industries, including pharmaceuticals. This case study explores the influence of surface area on the dissolution of additively manufactured polyvinyl alcohol parts as a polymer candidate. Specimens of different geometries and constant mass were fabricated using a Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) 3D printer. The dissolution behavior of these samples was compared with respect to their surface area. Improved and accelerated dissolution was observed for samples with a larger surface area. This study highlights the capabilities of additive manufacturing to produce samples of complex geometries that cannot be manufactured otherwise to control the dissolution behavior for pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical applications.

Keywords: Additive manufacturing, polymer dissolution, fused deposition modelling, geometry optimization.

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8621 Multi-Dimensional Concerns Mining for Web Applications via Concept-Analysis

Authors: Carlo Bellettini, Alessandro Marchetto, Andrea Trentini

Abstract:

Web applications have become very complex and crucial, especially when combined with areas such as CRM (Customer Relationship Management) and BPR (Business Process Reengineering), the scientific community has focused attention to Web applications design, development, analysis, and testing, by studying and proposing methodologies and tools. This paper proposes an approach to automatic multi-dimensional concern mining for Web Applications, based on concepts analysis, impact analysis, and token-based concern identification. This approach lets the user to analyse and traverse Web software relevant to a particular concern (concept, goal, purpose, etc.) via multi-dimensional separation of concerns, to document, understand and test Web applications. This technique was developed in the context of WAAT (Web Applications Analysis and Testing) project. A semi-automatic tool to support this technique is currently under development.

Keywords: Concepts Analysis, Concerns Mining, Multi-Dimensional Separation of Concerns, Impact Analysis.

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8620 Study of the Flow Structure in a Penstock in Unsteady Regime

Authors: F. Nkontchou Ngongang, M. Tchawe Tchawe, B. Djeumako, B. Kenmeugne

Abstract:

In this work, the flow structure in the Songloulou dam, is visualized in a time interval to observe the different fluid layers in our structure. Firstly, the three-dimensional modelling of the penstock is carried out in the software Gambit, followed by calculations in Fluent that proceeds introduction of boundary conditions. After calculation, we identified four periods corresponding to four regimes. In the first, spanning from 0.00 to 1.50s, we have the non-developed hydraulically rough turbulent regime, characterized by abrupt variations with modifications of the velocity fields. The second extends from 1.50 to 3.50s, where we have the transition regime characterized by slight variations and modifications of the velocity fields but with a great difference of the values of the current lines. From 3.50 to 5.00s, we encounter the third, which is the fully developed turbulent hydraulically rough regime, characterized by fields that vary no more, but have minute differences in the streamlines. The last period is from 5.00s and more, where we have a flow that is almost stationary, hence there are no changes in the fields.

Keywords: Unsteady flow, penstock, friction coefficient, hydroelectric dam.

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8619 The Performance Analysis of Error Saturation Nonlinearity LMS in Impulsive Noise based on Weighted-Energy Conservation

Authors: T Panigrahi, G Panda, Mulgrew

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new approach for the performance analysis of adaptive filter with error saturation nonlinearity in the presence of impulsive noise. The performance analysis of adaptive filters includes both transient analysis which shows that how fast a filter learns and the steady-state analysis gives how well a filter learns. The recursive expressions for mean-square deviation(MSD) and excess mean-square error(EMSE) are derived based on weighted energy conservation arguments which provide the transient behavior of the adaptive algorithm. The steady-state analysis for co-related input regressor data is analyzed, so this approach leads to a new performance results without restricting the input regression data to be white.

Keywords: Error saturation nonlinearity, transient analysis, impulsive noise.

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8618 2D Graphical Analysis of Wastewater Influent Capacity Time Series

Authors: Monika Chuchro, Maciej Dwornik

Abstract:

The extraction of meaningful information from image could be an alternative method for time series analysis. In this paper, we propose a graphical analysis of time series grouped into table with adjusted colour scale for numerical values. The advantages of this method are also discussed. The proposed method is easy to understand and is flexible to implement the standard methods of pattern recognition and verification, especially for noisy environmental data.

Keywords: graphical analysis, time series, seasonality, noisy environmental data

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8617 Comparative Study of the Static and Dynamic Analysis of Multi-Storey Irregular Building

Authors: Bahador Bagheri, Ehsan Salimi Firoozabad, Mohammadreza Yahyaei

Abstract:

As the world move to the accomplishment of Performance Based Engineering philosophies in seismic design of Civil Engineering structures, new seismic design provisions require Structural Engineers to perform both static and dynamic analysis for the design of structures. While Linear Equivalent Static Analysis is performed for regular buildings up to 90m height in zone I and II, Dynamic Analysis should be performed for regular and irregular buildings in zone IV and V. Dynamic Analysis can take the form of a dynamic Time History Analysis or a linear Response Spectrum Analysis. In present study, Multi-storey irregular buildings with 20 stories have been modeled using software packages ETABS and SAP 2000 v.15 for seismic zone V in India. This paper also deals with the effect of the variation of the building height on the structural response of the shear wall building. Dynamic responses of building under actual earthquakes, EL-CENTRO 1949 and CHI-CHI Taiwan 1999 have been investigated. This paper highlights the accuracy and exactness of Time History analysis in comparison with the most commonly adopted Response Spectrum Analysis and Equivalent Static Analysis.

Keywords: Equivalent Static Analysis, Time history method, Response spectrum method, Reinforce concrete building, displacement.

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8616 Economic Factorial Analysis of CO2 Emissions: The Divisia Index with Interconnected Factors Approach

Authors: Alexander Y. Vaninsky

Abstract:

This paper presents a method of economic factorial analysis of the CO2 emissions based on the extension of the Divisia index to interconnected factors. This approach, contrary to the Kaya identity, considers three main factors of the CO2 emissions: gross domestic product, energy consumption, and population - as equally important, and allows for accounting of all of them simultaneously. The three factors are included into analysis together with their carbon intensities that allows for obtaining a comprehensive picture of the change in the CO2 emissions. A computer program in R-language that is available for free download serves automation of the calculations. A case study of the U.S. carbon dioxide emissions is used as an example. 

Keywords: CO2 emissions, Economic analysis, Factorial analysis, Divisia index, Interconnected factors.

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8615 Identification of Nonlinear Systems Using Radial Basis Function Neural Network

Authors: C. Pislaru, A. Shebani

Abstract:

This paper uses the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) for system identification of nonlinear systems. Five nonlinear systems are used to examine the activity of RBFNN in system modeling of nonlinear systems; the five nonlinear systems are dual tank system, single tank system, DC motor system, and two academic models. The feed forward method is considered in this work for modelling the non-linear dynamic models, where the KMeans clustering algorithm used in this paper to select the centers of radial basis function network, because it is reliable, offers fast convergence and can handle large data sets. The least mean square method is used to adjust the weights to the output layer, and Euclidean distance method used to measure the width of the Gaussian function.

Keywords: System identification, Nonlinear system, Neural networks, RBF neural network.

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8614 Validation of Reverse Engineered Web Application Models

Authors: Carlo Bellettini, Alessandro Marchetto, Andrea Trentini

Abstract:

Web applications have become complex and crucial for many firms, especially when combined with areas such as CRM (Customer Relationship Management) and BPR (Business Process Reengineering). The scientific community has focused attention to Web application design, development, analysis, testing, by studying and proposing methodologies and tools. Static and dynamic techniques may be used to analyze existing Web applications. The use of traditional static source code analysis may be very difficult, for the presence of dynamically generated code, and for the multi-language nature of the Web. Dynamic analysis may be useful, but it has an intrinsic limitation, the low number of program executions used to extract information. Our reverse engineering analysis, used into our WAAT (Web Applications Analysis and Testing) project, applies mutational techniques in order to exploit server side execution engines to accomplish part of the dynamic analysis. This paper studies the effects of mutation source code analysis applied to Web software to build application models. Mutation-based generated models may contain more information then necessary, so we need a pruning mechanism.

Keywords: Validation, Dynamic Analysis, MutationAnalysis, Reverse Engineering, Web Applications

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8613 Direct Design of Steel Bridge Using Nonlinear Inelastic Analysis

Authors: Boo-Sung Koh, Seung-Eock Kim

Abstract:

In this paper, a direct design using a nonlinear inelastic analysis is suggested. Also, this paper compares the load carrying capacity obtained by a nonlinear inelastic analysis with experiment results to verify the accuracy of the results. The allowable stress design results of a railroad through a plate girder bridge and the safety factor of the nonlinear inelastic analysis were compared to examine the safety performance. As a result, the load safety factor for the nonlinear inelastic analysis was twice as high as the required safety factor under the allowable stress design standard specified in the civil engineering structure design standards for urban magnetic levitation railways, which further verified the advantages of the proposed direct design method.

Keywords: Direct design, nonlinear inelastic analysis, residual stress, initial geometric imperfection.

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8612 Correlational Analysis between Brain Dominances and Multiple Intelligences

Authors: Lakshmi Dhandabani, Rajeev Sukumaran

Abstract:

Aim of this research study is to investigate and establish the characteristics of brain dominances (BD) and multiple intelligences (MI). This experimentation has been conducted for the sample size of 552 undergraduate computer-engineering students. In addition, mathematical formulation has been established to exhibit the relation between thinking and intelligence, and its correlation has been analyzed. Correlation analysis has been statistically measured using Pearson’s coefficient. Analysis of the results proves that there is a strong relational existence between thinking and intelligence. This research is carried to improve the didactic methods in engineering learning and also to improve e-learning strategies.

Keywords: Thinking style assessment, correlational analysis, mathematical model, data analysis, dynamic equilibrium.

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8611 EML-Estimation of Multivariate t Copulas with Heuristic Optimization

Authors: Jin Zhang, Wing Lon Ng

Abstract:

In recent years, copulas have become very popular in financial research and actuarial science as they are more flexible in modelling the co-movements and relationships of risk factors as compared to the conventional linear correlation coefficient by Pearson. However, a precise estimation of the copula parameters is vital in order to correctly capture the (possibly nonlinear) dependence structure and joint tail events. In this study, we employ two optimization heuristics, namely Differential Evolution and Threshold Accepting to tackle the parameter estimation of multivariate t distribution models in the EML approach. Since the evolutionary optimizer does not rely on gradient search, the EML approach can be applied to estimation of more complicated copula models such as high-dimensional copulas. Our experimental study shows that the proposed method provides more robust and more accurate estimates as compared to the IFM approach.

Keywords: Copula Models, Student t Copula, Parameter Inference, Differential Evolution, Threshold Accepting.

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8610 Exploring the Relationships between Job Satisfaction, Work Engagement and Loyalty of Academic Staff

Authors: I. Ludviga, A. Kalvina

Abstract:

This paper aims to link together the concepts of job satisfaction, work engagement, trust, job meaningfulness and loyalty to the organisation focusing on specific type of employment – academic jobs. The research investigates the relationships between job satisfaction, work engagement and loyalty as well as the impact of trust and job meaningfulness on the work engagement and loyalty. The survey was conducted in one of the largest Latvian higher education institutions and the sample was drawn from academic staff (n=326). Structured questionnaire with 44 reflective type questions was developed to measure the constructs. Data was analysed using SPSS and Smart-PLS software. Variance based structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) technique was used to test the model and to predict the most important factors relevant to employee engagement and loyalty. The first order model included two endogenous constructs (loyalty and intention to stay and recommend to work in this organisation, and employee engagement), as well as six exogenous constructs (feeling of fair treatment and trust in management; career growth opportunities; compensation, pay and benefits; management; colleagues and teamwork; and finally job meaningfulness). Job satisfaction was developed as second order construct and both: first and second order models were designed for data analysis. It was found that academics are more engaged than satisfied with their work and main reason for that was found to be job meaningfulness, which is significant predictor for work engagement, but not for job satisfaction. Compensation is not significantly related to work engagement, but only to job satisfaction. Trust was not significantly related neither to engagement, nor to satisfaction, however, it appeared to be significant predictor of loyalty and intentions to stay with the University. Paper revealed academic jobs as specific kind of employment where employees can be more engaged than satisfied and highlighted the specific role of job meaningfulness in the University settings.

Keywords: Job satisfaction, job meaningfulness, higher education, work engagement.

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8609 Model Solutions for Performance-Based Seismic Analysis of an Anchored Sheet Pile Quay Wall

Authors: C. J. W. Habets, D. J. Peters, J. G. de Gijt, A. V. Metrikine, S. N. Jonkman

Abstract:

Conventional seismic designs of quay walls in ports are mostly based on pseudo-static analysis. A more advanced alternative is the Performance-Based Design (PBD) method, which evaluates permanent deformations and amounts of (repairable) damage under seismic loading. The aim of this study is to investigate the suitability of this method for anchored sheet pile quay walls that were not purposely designed for seismic loads. A research methodology is developed in which pseudo-static, permanent-displacement and finite element analysis are employed, calibrated with an experimental reference case that considers a typical anchored sheet pile wall. A reduction factor that accounts for deformation behaviour is determined for pseudo-static analysis. A model to apply traditional permanent displacement analysis on anchored sheet pile walls is proposed. Dynamic analysis is successfully carried out. From the research it is concluded that PBD evaluation can effectively be used for seismic analysis and design of this type of structure.

Keywords: Anchored sheet pile quay wall, simplified dynamic analysis, performance-based design, pseudo-static analysis.

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8608 A Post Keynesian Environmental Macroeconomic Model for Agricultural Water Sustainability under Climate Change in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

Authors: Ke Zhao, Ballarat Colin Richardson, Jerry Courvisanos, John Crawford

Abstract:

Climate change has profound consequences for the agriculture of south-eastern Australia and its climate-induced water shortage in the Murray-Darling Basin. Post Keynesian Economics (PKE) macro-dynamics, along with Kaleckian investment and growth theory, are used to develop an ecological-economic system dynamics model of this complex nonlinear river basin system. The Murray- Darling Basin Simulation Model (MDB-SM) uses the principles of PKE to incorporate the fundamental uncertainty of economic behaviors of farmers regarding the investments they make and the climate change they face, particularly as regards water ecosystem services. MDB-SM provides a framework for macroeconomic policies, especially for long-term fiscal policy and for policy directed at the sustainability of agricultural water, as measured by socio-economic well-being considerations, which include sustainable consumption and investment in the river basin. The model can also reproduce other ecological and economic aspects and, for certain parameters and initial values, exhibit endogenous business cycles and ecological sustainability with realistic characteristics. Most importantly, MDBSM provides a platform for the analysis of alternative economic policy scenarios. These results reveal the importance of understanding water ecosystem adaptation under climate change by integrating a PKE macroeconomic analytical framework with the system dynamics modelling approach. Once parameterised and supplied with historical initial values, MDB-SM should prove to be a practical tool to provide alternative long-term policy simulations of agricultural water and socio-economic well-being.

Keywords: Agricultural water, Macroeconomic dynamics, Modeling, Investment dynamics, Sustainability, Unemployment, Economics, Keynesian, Kaleckian.

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8607 A Large-Eddy Simulation of Vortex Cell flow with Incoming Turbulent Boundary Layer

Authors: Arpiruk Hokpunna, Michael Manhart

Abstract:

We present a Large-Eddy simulation of a vortex cell with circular shaped. The results show that the flow field can be sub divided into four important zones, the shear layer above the cavity, the stagnation zone, the vortex core in the cavity and the boundary layer along the wall of the cavity. It is shown that the vortex core consits of solid body rotation without much turbulence activity. The vortex is mainly driven by high energy packets that are driven into the cavity from the stagnation point region and by entrainment of fluid from the cavity into the shear layer. The physics in the boundary layer along the cavity-s wall seems to be far from that of a canonical boundary layer which might be a crucial point for modelling this flow.

Keywords: Turbulent flow, Large eddy simulations, boundary layer and cavity flow, vortex cell flow.

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8606 Analysis of Medical Data using Data Mining and Formal Concept Analysis

Authors: Anamika Gupta, Naveen Kumar, Vasudha Bhatnagar

Abstract:

This paper focuses on analyzing medical diagnostic data using classification rules in data mining and context reduction in formal concept analysis. It helps in finding redundancies among the various medical examination tests used in diagnosis of a disease. Classification rules have been derived from positive and negative association rules using the Concept lattice structure of the Formal Concept Analysis. Context reduction technique given in Formal Concept Analysis along with classification rules has been used to find redundancies among the various medical examination tests. Also it finds out whether expensive medical tests can be replaced by some cheaper tests.

Keywords: Data Mining, Formal Concept Analysis, Medical Data, Negative Classification Rules.

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8605 Speed Control of a Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machine (PMSM) Fed by an Inverter Voltage Fuzzy Control Approach

Authors: Jamel Khedri, Mohamed Chaabane, Mansour Souissi, Driss Mehdi

Abstract:

This paper deals with the synthesis of fuzzy controller applied to a permanent magnet synchronous machine (PMSM) with a guaranteed H∞ performance. To design this fuzzy controller, nonlinear model of the PMSM is approximated by Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model (T-S fuzzy model), then the so-called parallel distributed compensation (PDC) is employed. Next, we derive the property of the H∞ norm. The latter is cast in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMI-s) while minimizing the H∞ norm of the transfer function between the disturbance and the error ( ) ev T . The experimental and simulations results were conducted on a permanent magnet synchronous machine to illustrate the effects of the fuzzy modelling and the controller design via the PDC.

Keywords: Feedback controller, Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model, Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI), PMSM, H∞ performance.

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8604 Continuum-Based Modelling Approaches for Cell Mechanics

Authors: Yogesh D. Bansod, Jiri Bursa

Abstract:

The quantitative study of cell mechanics is of paramount interest, since it regulates the behaviour of the living cells in response to the myriad of extracellular and intracellular mechanical stimuli. The novel experimental techniques together with robust computational approaches have given rise to new theories and models, which describe cell mechanics as combination of biomechanical and biochemical processes. This review paper encapsulates the existing continuum-based computational approaches that have been developed for interpreting the mechanical responses of living cells under different loading and boundary conditions. The salient features and drawbacks of each model are discussed from both structural and biological points of view. This discussion can contribute to the development of even more precise and realistic computational models of cell mechanics based on continuum approaches or on their combination with microstructural approaches, which in turn may provide a better understanding of mechanotransduction in living cells.

Keywords: Cell mechanics, computational models, continuum approach, mechanical models.

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8603 The Relation between Social Capital and Trust with Social Network Analysis

Authors: Safak Baykal

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is analyzing the relationship between trust and social capital of people with using Social Network Analysis. In this study, two aspects of social capital will be focused: Bonding, homophilous social capital (BoSC), and Bridging, heterophilous social capital (BrSC). These two aspects diverge each other regarding to the social theories. The other concept of the study is Trust (Tr), namely interpersonal trust, willing to ascribe good intentions to and have confidence in the words and actions of other people. In this study, the sample group, 61 people, was selected from a private firm from the defense industry. The relation between BoSC/BrSC and Tr is shown by using Social Network Analysis (SNA) and statistical analysis with Likert type-questionnaire. The results of the analysis show the Cronbach’s alpha value is 0.756 and social capital values (BoSC/BrSC) is not correlated with Tr values of the people.

Keywords: Social capital, interpersonal trust, social network analysis (SNA).

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8602 Analytical Crack Propagation Scenario for Gear Teeth and Time-Varying Gear Mesh Stiffness

Authors: Omar D. Mohammed, Matti Rantatalo, Uday Kumar

Abstract:

In this paper an analytical crack propagation scenario is proposed which assumes that a crack propagates in the tooth root in both the crack depth direction and the tooth width direction, and which is more reasonable and realistic for non-uniform load distribution cases than the other presented scenarios. An analytical approach is used for quantifying the loss of time-varying gear mesh stiffness with the presence of crack propagation in the gear tooth root. The proposed crack propagation scenario can be applied for crack propagation modelling and monitoring simulation, but further research is required for comparison and evaluation of all the presented crack propagation scenarios from the condition monitoring point of view.

Keywords: Crack propagation, Gear tooth crack, Time varying gear mesh stiffness.

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8601 A Study of Quality Assurance and Unit Verification Methods in Safety Critical Environment

Authors: Miklos Taliga

Abstract:

In the present case study we examined the development and testing methods of systems that contain safety-critical elements in different industrial fields. Consequentially, we observed the classical object-oriented development and testing environment, as both medical technology and automobile industry approaches the development of safety critical elements that way. Subsequently, we examined model-based development. We introduce the quality parameters that define development and testing. While taking modern agile methodology (scrum) into consideration, we examined whether and to what extent the methodologies we found fit into this environment.

Keywords: Safety-critical elements, quality management, unit verification, model base testing, agile methods, scrum, metamodel, object-oriented programming, field specific modelling, sprint, user story, UML Standard.

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8600 Analyzing the Factors Effecting the Passenger Car Breakdowns using Com-Poisson GLM

Authors: N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

Number of breakdowns experienced by a machinery is a highly under-dispersed count random variable and its value can be attributed to the factors related to the mechanical input and output of that machinery. Analyzing such under-dispersed count observations as a function of the explanatory factors has been a challenging problem. In this paper, we aim at estimating the effects of various factors on the number of breakdowns experienced by a passenger car based on a study performed in Mauritius over a year. We remark that the number of passenger car breakdowns is highly under-dispersed. These data are therefore modelled and analyzed using Com-Poisson regression model. We use quasi-likelihood estimation approach to estimate the parameters of the model. Under-dispersion parameter is estimated to be 2.14 justifying the appropriateness of Com-Poisson distribution in modelling under-dispersed count responses recorded in this study.

Keywords: Breakdowns, under-dispersion, com-poisson, generalized linear model, quasi-likelihood estimation

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8599 Technological Analysis Questionnaire for Preliminary Feasibility Study on R&D Program

Authors: Seongmin Yim

Abstract:

The Korean government has applied preliminary feasibility study for a new R&D program over about $50 Million since 2008 as a part of official process in budget planning. The investigations of technology, policy, and economics are carried out separately to arrive at a definite result: whether a program is feasible or unfeasible. This paper describes the concept and check-points related to technological analysis from a preliminary evaluation’s stand-point. First of all, the fundamental concept of technological analysis in evaluation systems such as Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART) by Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and Evaluation Methods by Department of Energy (DOE) in the United States, the Green Book in the United Kingdom are reviewed. After the review, customized questionnaire for technological analysis are developed. Conclusively, limitations and further research directions are provided.

Keywords: Preliminary Feasibility Study, R&D Program, Evaluation System, Technological analysis, R&D Logic Analysis.

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8598 Classification and Analysis of Risks in Software Engineering

Authors: Hooman Hoodat, Hassan Rashidi

Abstract:

Despite various methods that exist in software risk management, software projects have a high rate of failure. When complexity and size of the projects are increased, managing software development becomes more difficult. In these projects the need for more analysis and risk assessment is vital. In this paper, a classification for software risks is specified. Then relations between these risks using risk tree structure are presented. Analysis and assessment of these risks are done using probabilistic calculations. This analysis helps qualitative and quantitative assessment of risk of failure. Moreover it can help software risk management process. This classification and risk tree structure can apply to some software tools.

Keywords: Risk analysis, risk assessment, risk classification, risk tree.

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8597 Forecasting Issues in Energy Markets within a Reg-ARIMA Framework

Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: Forecasting problem, interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-plus-SARMA methods.

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8596 Experimental and Computational Analysis of Hygrothermal Performance of an Interior Thermal Insulation System

Authors: Z. Pavlík, J. Kočí, M. Pavlíková, R. Černý

Abstract:

Combined experimental and computational analysis of hygrothermal performance of an interior thermal insulation system applied on a brick wall is presented in the paper. In the experimental part, the functionality of the insulation system is tested at simulated difference climate conditions using a semi-scale device. The measured temperature and relative humidity profiles are used for the calibration of computer code HEMOT that is finally applied for a long-term hygrothermal analysis of the investigated structure.

Keywords: Additional thermal insulation, hygrothermal analysis, semi-scale testing, long-term computational analysis

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