Search results for: Product modeling

Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.

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Authors: Mahdiyeh Zafaranchi, Ethan S. Cantor, William T. Riddell, Jess W. Everett

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The New Jersey Department of Military and Veteran’s Affairs (NJ DMAVA) operates over 50 facilities throughout the state of New Jersey, US. NJ DMAVA is under a mandate to move toward decarbonization, which will eventually include eliminating the use of natural gas and other fossil fuels for heating. At the same time, the organization requires increased resiliency regarding electric grid disruption. These competing goals necessitate adopting the use of on-site renewables such as photovoltaic and geothermal power, as well as implementing power control strategies through microgrids. Planning for these changes requires a detailed understanding of current and future electricity use on yearly, monthly, and shorter time scales, as well as a breakdown of consumption by heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. This paper discusses case studies of two buildings that were simulated using the QUick Energy Simulation Tool (eQUEST). Both buildings use electricity from the grid and photovoltaics. One building also uses natural gas. While electricity use data are available in hourly intervals and natural gas data are available in monthly intervals, the simulations were developed using monthly and yearly totals. This approach was chosen to reflect the information available for most NJ DMAVA facilities. Once completed, simulation results are compared to metrics recommended by several organizations to validate energy use simulations. In addition to yearly and monthly totals, the simulated peak demands are compared to actual monthly peak demand values. The simulations resulted in monthly peak demand values that were within 30% of the measured values. These benchmarks will help to assess future energy planning efforts for NJ DMAVA.

Keywords: Building Energy Modeling, eQUEST, peak demand, smart meters.

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Authors: D. O. Omondi, M. K. Walingo, G. M. Mbagaya

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Objective: This study explored the possibility of integrating Health Belief Concepts as additional predictors of intention to adopt a recommended diet-category within the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Methods: The study adopted a Sequential Exploratory Mixed Methods approach. Qualitative data were generated on attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and perceptions on predetermined diet-categories including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action. Synthesis of qualitative data was done using constant comparative approach during phase 1. A survey tool developed from qualitative results was used to collect information on the same concepts across 237 legible Type 2 diabetics. Data analysis included use of Structural Equation Modeling in Analysis of Moment Structures to explore the possibility of including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action as additional intention predictors in a single nested model. Results: Two models-one nested based on the traditional TPB model {χ2=223.3, df = 77, p = .02, χ2/df = 2.9; TLI = .93; CFI =.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .090(.039, .146)} and the newly proposed Planned Behavior Health Belief Model (PBHB) {χ2 = 743.47, df = 301, p = .019; TLI = .90; CFI=.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .079(.031, .14)} passed the goodness of fit tests based on common fit indicators used. Conclusion: The newly developed PBHB Model ranked higher than the traditional TPB model with reference made to chi-square ratios (PBHB: χ2/df = 2.47; p=0.19 against TPB: χ2/df = 2.9, p=0.02). The integrated model can be used to motivate Type 2 diabetics towards healthy eating.

Keywords: Theory, intention, predictors, mixed methods design.

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Authors: A. Golshani, M. Gharizade Varnusefaderani, S. Majidian

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Underground structures are of those structures that have uncertainty in design procedures. That is due to the complexity of soil condition around. Under passing tunnels are also such affected structures. Despite geotechnical site investigations, lots of uncertainties exist in soil properties due to unknown events. As results, it possibly causes conflicting settlements in numerical analysis with recorded values in the project. This paper aims to report a case study on a specific under passing tunnel constructed by New Austrian Tunnelling Method in Iran. The intended tunnel has an overburden of about 11.3m, the height of 12.2m and, the width of 14.4m with 2.5 traffic lane. The numerical modeling was developed by a 2D finite element program (PLAXIS Version 8). Comparing displacement histories at the ground surface during the entire installation of initial lining, the estimated surface settlement was about four times the field recorded one, which indicates that some local unknown events affect that value. Also, the displacement ratios were in a big difference between the numerical and field data. Consequently, running several numerical back analyses using laboratory and field tests data, the geotechnical parameters were accurately revised to match with the obtained monitoring data. Finally, it was found that usually the values of soil parameters are conservatively low-estimated up to 40 percent by typical engineering judgment. Additionally, it could be attributed to inappropriate constitutive models applied for the specific soil condition.

Keywords: NATM, surface displacement history, soil tests, monitoring data, numerical back-analysis, geotechnical parameters.

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Authors: Mohamed Ammar Abbassi, Kamel Guedri, Mohamed Naceur Borjini, Kamel Halouani, Belkacem Zeghmati

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The radiative heat transfer problem is investigated numerically for 2D complex geometry biomass pyrolysis reactor composed of two pyrolysis chambers and a heat recuperator. The fumes are a mixture of carbon dioxide and water vapor charged with absorbing and scattering particles and soot. In order to increase gases residence time and heat transfer, the heat recuperator is provided with many inclined, vertical, horizontal, diffuse and grey baffles of finite thickness and has a complex geometry. The Finite Volume Method (FVM) is applied to study radiative heat transfer. The blocked-off region procedure is used to treat the geometrical irregularities. Eight cases are considered in order to demonstrate the effect of adding baffles on the walls of the heat recuperator and on the walls of the pyrolysis rooms then choose the best case giving the maximum heat flux transferred to the biomass in the pyrolysis chambers. Ray effect due to the presence of baffles is studied and demonstrated to have a crucial effect on radiative heat flux on the walls of the pyrolysis rooms. Shadow effect caused by the presence of the baffles is also studied. The non grey radiative heat transfer is studied for the real existent configuration. The Weighted Sum of The Grey Gases (WSGG) Model of Kim and Song is used as non grey model. The effect of soot volumetric fraction on the non grey radiative heat flux is investigated and discussed.

Keywords: Baffles, Blocked-off region procedure, FVM, Heat recuperation, Radiative heat transfer, Shadow effect.

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Authors: A. Megalingam, M.M.Mayuram

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Evaluation of contact pressure, surface and subsurface contact stresses are essential to know the functional response of surface coatings and the contact behavior mainly depends on surface roughness, material property, thickness of layer and the manner of loading. Contact parameter evaluation of real rough surface contacts mostly relies on statistical single asperity contact approaches. In this work, a three dimensional layered solid rough surface in contact with a rigid flat is modeled and analyzed using finite element method. The rough surface of layered solid is generated by FFT approach. The generated rough surface is exported to a finite element method based ANSYS package through which the bottom up solid modeling is employed to create a deformable solid model with a layered solid rough surface on top. The discretization and contact analysis are carried by using the same ANSYS package. The elastic, elastoplastic and plastic deformations are continuous in the present finite element method unlike many other contact models. The Young-s modulus to yield strength ratio of layer is varied in the present work to observe the contact parameters effect while keeping the surface roughness and substrate material properties as constant. The contacting asperities attain elastic, elastoplastic and plastic states with their continuity and asperity interaction phenomena is inherently included. The resultant contact parameters show that neighboring asperity interaction and the Young-s modulus to yield strength ratio of layer influence the bulk deformation consequently affect the interface strength.

Keywords: Asperity interaction, finite element method, rough surface contact, single layered solid

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Authors: Alemayehu Agizew Woldeamanuel, Mekonnen Maschal Tarekegn, Raj Mohan Balakrishina

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Composting is one of the conventional techniques adopted for organic waste management but the practice is very limited in emerging cities despite that most of the waste generated is organic. This paper aims to examine the viability of composting for organic waste management in the emerging city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia by addressing the composting practice, quality of compost and application of compost in urban agriculture. The study collects data using compost laboratory testing and urban farm households’ survey and uses descriptive analysis on the state of compost production and application, physicochemical analysis of the compost samples, and regression analysis on the urban farmer’s willingness to pay for compost. The findings of the study indicated that there is composting practice at a small scale, most of the producers use unsorted feedstock materials, aerobic composting is dominantly used and the maturation period ranged from four to 10 weeks. The carbon content of the compost ranges from 30.8 to 277.1 due to the type of feedstock applied and this surpasses the ideal proportions for C:N ratio. The total nitrogen, pH, organic matter and moisture content are relatively optimal. The levels of heavy metals measured for Mn, Cu, Pb, Cd and Cr6+ in the compost samples are also insignificant. In the urban agriculture sector, chemical fertilizer is the dominant type of soil input in crop productions but vegetable producers use a combination of both fertilizer and other organic inputs including compost. The willingness to pay for compost depends on income, household size, gender, type of soil inputs, monitoring soil fertility, the main product of the farm, farming method and farm ownership. Finally, this study recommends the need for collaboration among stakeholders along the value chain of waste, awareness creation on the benefits of composting and addressing challenges faced by both compost producers and users.

Keywords: Composting, emerging city, organic waste management, urban agriculture.

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Authors: I. Székács, Á. Fejes, S. Klátyik, E. Takács, D. Patkó, J. Pomóthy, M. Mörtl, R. Horváth, E. Madarász, B. Darvas, A. Székács

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Environmental and toxicological characteristics of formulated pesticides may substantially differ from those of their active ingredients or other components alone. This phenomenon is demonstrated in the case of the herbicide active ingredient glyphosate. Due to its extensive application, this active ingredient was found in surface and ground water samples collected in Békés County, Hungary, in the concentration range of 0.54–0.98 ng/ml. The occurrence of glyphosate appeared to be somewhat higher at areas under intensive agriculture, industrial activities and public road services, but the compound was detected at areas under organic (ecological) farming or natural grasslands, indicating environmental mobility. Increased toxicity of the formulated herbicide product Roundup compared to that of glyphosate was observed on the indicator aquatic organism Daphnia magna Straus. Acute LC₅₀ values of Roundup and its formulating adjuvant polyethoxylated tallowamine (POEA) exceeded 20 and 3.1 mg/ml, respectively, while that of glyphosate (as isopropyl salt) was found to be substantially lower (690-900 mg/ml) showing good agreement with literature data. Cytotoxicity of Roundup, POEA and glyphosate has been determined on the neuroectodermal cell line, NE-4C measured both by cell viability test and holographic microscopy. Acute toxicity (LC₅₀) of Roundup, POEA and glyphosate on NE-4C cells was found to be 0.013±0.002%, 0.017±0.009% and 6.46±2.25%, respectively (in equivalents of diluted Roundup solution), corresponding to 0.022±0.003 and 53.1±18.5 mg/ml for POEA and glyphosate, respectively, indicating no statistical difference between Roundup and POEA and 2.5 orders of magnitude difference between these and glyphosate. The same order of cellular toxicity seen in average cell area has been indicated under quantitative cell visualization. The results indicate that toxicity of the formulated herbicide is caused by the formulating agent, but in some parameters toxicological synergy occurs between POEA and glyphosate.

Keywords: Glyphosate, polyethoxylated tallowamine, Roundup, combined aquatic and cellular toxicity, synergy.

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Authors: S. Sundaravalli, M. C. Majumder, G. K. Vijayaraghavan

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The study focuses to investigate the thermal response of delaminations and develop mathematical models using numerical results to obtain the optimum heat requirement and time to identify delaminations in GLARE type of Fibre Metal Laminates (FML) in both reflection mode and through-transmission (TT) mode of step pulsed active thermography (SPAT) method in the type of nondestructive testing and evaluation (NDTE) technique. The influence of applied heat flux and time on various sizes and depth of delaminations in FML is analyzed to investigate the thermal response through numerical simulations. A finite element method (FEM) is applied to simulate SPAT through ANSYS software based on 3D transient heat transfer principle with the assumption of reflection mode and TT mode of observation individually.

The results conclude that the numerical approach based on SPAT in reflection mode is more suitable for analysing smaller size of near-surface delaminations located at the thermal stimulator side and TT mode is more suitable for analysing smaller size of deeper delaminations located far from thermal stimulator side or near thermal detector/Infrared camera side. The mathematical models provide the optimum q and T at the required MRTD to identify unidentified delamination 7 with 25015.0022W/m2 at 2.531sec and delamination 8 with 16663.3356 W/m2 at 1.37857sec in reflection mode. In TT mode, the delamination 1 with 34954W/m2 at 13.0399sec, delamination 2 with 20002.67W/m2 at 1.998sec and delamination 7 with 20010.87 W/m2 at 0.6171sec could be identified.

Keywords: Step pulsed active thermography (SPAT), NDTE, FML, Delaminations, Finite element method.

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Authors: U. Waqas, M. F. Ahmed, A. Mehmood, M. A. Rashid

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In geophysical exploration surveys, the quality of acquired data holds significant importance before executing the data processing and interpretation phases. In this study, 2D seismic reflection survey data of Fort Abbas area, Cholistan Desert, Pakistan was taken as test case in order to assess its quality on statistical bases by using normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Cronbach’s alpha test (α) and null hypothesis tests (t-test and F-test). The analysis challenged the quality of the acquired data and highlighted the significant errors in the acquired database. It is proven that the study area is plain, tectonically least affected and rich in oil and gas reserves. However, subsurface 3D modeling and contouring by using acquired database revealed high degrees of structural complexities and intense folding. The NRMSE had highest percentage of residuals between the estimated and predicted cases. The outcomes of hypothesis testing also proved the biasness and erraticness of the acquired database. Low estimated value of alpha (α) in Cronbach’s alpha test confirmed poor reliability of acquired database. A very low quality of acquired database needs excessive static correction or in some cases, reacquisition of data is also suggested which is most of the time not feasible on economic grounds. The outcomes of this study could be used to assess the quality of large databases and to further utilize as a guideline to establish database quality assessment models to make much more informed decisions in hydrocarbon exploration field.

Keywords: Data quality, null hypothesis, seismic lines, seismic reflection survey.

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Authors: Daisy Biswas, Samar Kanti Bose, M. Mozaffar Hossain

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The development of value added composite products from bamboo with the application of gluing technology can play a vital role in economic development and also in forest resource conservation of any country. In this study, the gluability of Bambusa balcooa and Bambusa vulgaris, two locally grown bamboo species of Bangladesh was assessed. As the culm wall thickness of bamboos decreases from bottom to top, a culm portion of up to 5.4 m and 3.6 m were used from the base of B. balcooa and B. vulgaris, respectively, to get rectangular strips of uniform thickness. The color of the B. vulgaris strips was yellowish brown and that of B. balcooa was reddish brown. The strips were treated in borax-boric, bleaching and carbonization for extending the service life of the laminates. The preservative treatments changed the color of the strips. Borax–boric acid treated strips were reddish brown. When bleached with hydrogen peroxide, the color of the strips turned into whitish yellow. Carbonization produced dark brownish strips having coffee flavor. Chemical constituents for untreated and treated strips were determined. B. vulgaris was more acidic than B. balcooa. Then the treated strips were used to develop three-layered bamboo laminated panel. Urea formaldehyde (UF) and polyvinyl acetate (PVA) were used as binder. The shear strength and abrasive resistance of the panel were evaluated. It was found that the shear strength of the UF-panel was higher than the PVA-panel for all treatments. Between the species, gluability of B. vulgaris was better and in some cases better than hardwood species. The abrasive resistance of B. balcooa is slightly higher than B. vulgaris; however, the latter was preferred as it showed well gluability. The panels could be used as structural panel, floor tiles, flat pack furniture component, and wall panel etc. However, further research on durability and creep behavior of the product in service condition is warranted.

Keywords: Bambusa balcooa, Bambusa vulgaris, polyvinyl acetate, urea formaldehyde.

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Authors: Rahma Fitriani, Eni Sumarminingsih, Suci Astutik

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In a fast growing region, conversion of agricultural lands which are surrounded by some new development sites will occur sooner than expected. This phenomenon has been experienced by many regions in Indonesia, especially the fringe of Jakarta (BoDeTaBek). Being Indonesia’s capital city, rapid conversion of land in this area is an unavoidable process. The land conversion expands spatially into the fringe regions, which were initially dominated by agricultural land or conservation sites. Without proper control or growth management, this activity will invite greater costs than benefits. The current land use is the use which maximizes its value. In order to maintain land for agricultural activity or conservation, some efforts are needed to keep the land value of this activity as high as possible. In this case, the knowledge regarding the functional relationship between land value and its driving forces is necessary. In a fast growing region, development externalities are the assumed dominant driving force. Land value is the product of the past decision of its use leading to its value. It is also affected by the local characteristics and the observed surrounded land use (externalities) from the previous period. The effect of each factor on land value has dynamic and spatial virtues; an empirical spatial dynamic land value model will be more useful to capture them. The model will be useful to test and to estimate the extent of land use externalities on land value in the short run as well as in the long run. It serves as a basis to formulate an effective urban growth management’s policy. This study will apply the model to the case of land value in the fringe of Jakarta Metropolitan. The model will be used further to predict the effect of externalities on land value, in the form of prediction map. For the case of Jakarta’s fringe, there is some evidence about the significance of neighborhood urban activity – negative externalities, the previous land value and local accessibility on land value. The effects are accumulated dynamically over years, but they will fully affect the land value after six years.

Keywords: Growth management, land use externalities, land value, spatial panel dynamic.

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Authors: Roy R. Gu, Mahesh Sahu, Xianggui Zhao

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Contour filter strips planted with perennial vegetation can be used to improve surface and ground water quality by reducing pollutant, such as NO3-N, and sediment outflow from cropland to a river or lake. Meanwhile, the filter strips of perennial grass with biofuel potentials also have economic benefits of producing ethanol. In this study, The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to the Walnut Creek Watershed to examine the effectiveness of contour strips in reducing NO3-N outflows from crop fields to the river or lake. Required input data include watershed topography, slope, soil type, land-use, management practices in the watershed and climate parameters (precipitation, maximum/minimum air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and relative humidity). Numerical experiments were conducted to identify potential subbasins in the watershed that have high water quality impact, and to examine the effects of strip size and location on NO3-N reduction in the subbasins under various meteorological conditions (dry, average and wet). Variable sizes of contour strips (10%, 20%, 30% and 50%, respectively, of a subbasin area) planted with perennial switchgrass were selected for simulating the effects of strip size and location on stream water quality. Simulation results showed that a filter strip having 10%-50% of the subbasin area could lead to 55%- 90% NO3-N reduction in the subbasin during an average rainfall year. Strips occupying 10-20% of the subbasin area were found to be more efficient in reducing NO3-N when placed along the contour than that when placed along the river. The results of this study can assist in cost-benefit analysis and decision-making in best water resources management practices for environmental protection.

Keywords: modeling, SWAT, water quality, NO3-N, watershed.

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Authors: Sevgi Özlem Bulu, Arif Furkan Mendi, Tolga Erol, İzzet Gökhan Özbilgin

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The rapid progress of technology in today's competitive conditions has also accelerated companies' technology development activities. As a result, companies are paying more attention to R&D studies and are beginning to allocate a larger share to R&D projects. A more systematic, comprehensive, target-oriented implementation of R&D studies is crucial for the company to achieve successful results. As a consequence, Technology Roadmap (TRM) is gaining importance as a management tool. It has critical prospects for achieving medium and long term success as it contains decisions about past business, future plans, technological infrastructure. When studies on TRM are examined, projects to be placed on the roadmap are selected by many different methods. Generally preferred methods are based on multi-criteria decision making methods. Management of selected projects becomes an important point after the selection phase of the projects. At this stage, TRM are used. TRM can be created in many different ways so that each institution can prepare its own Technology Roadmap according to their strategic plan. Depending on the intended use, there can be TRM with different layers at different sizes. In the evaluation phase of the R&D projects and in the creation of the TRM, HAVELSAN, Turkey's largest defense company in the software field, carries out this process with great care and diligence. At the beginning, suggested R&D projects are evaluated by the Technology Management Board (TMB) of HAVELSAN in accordance with the company's resources, objectives, and targets. These projects are presented to the TMB periodically for evaluation within the framework of certain criteria by board members. After the necessary steps have been passed, the approved projects are added to the time-based TRM, which is composed of four layers as market, product, project and technology. The use of a four-layered roadmap provides a clearer understanding and visualization of company strategy and objectives. This study demonstrates the benefits of using TRM, four-layered Technology Roadmapping and the possibilities for the institutions in the defense industry.

Keywords: Project selection, R&D in defense industry, R&D project selection, technology roadmapping.

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Authors: B. O. Diyaolu

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The globalization of football especially among youth over the decade is uprising. Nigeria youth displaying football jerseys at every opportunity is an acceptance of football globalization. The Love for English Premier League (EPL) football jersey is very strong among Nigeria fans. Football club jerseys of the EPL are a common sports product among fans in Nigeria. This study investigates the contribution of football club jerseys towards EPL fans’ loyalty in Nigeria. Descriptive survey research design was used for the study. The population consists of EPL fans in Nigeria. Simple random sampling technique (fish bowl without replacement) was used to select two states from the six geo-political zones. Purposive sampling technique was used to pick eight viewing centres while accidental sampling technique was used to pick five vendor stands from each State. An average of 250 respondents was selected from each state. A total of 3,200 respondents participated in the research. Two research instruments were used. A self-developed structured questionnaire on Football Jersey Scale (FJS): The instrument consists of 10 items. Fans Loyalty Scale (FLS): The instrument was modified from the psychological commitment to team (PCT) scale, and consists of 20 items. The Cronbach’s Alpha reliability coefficient of 0.72 and 0.75 was obtained, respectively. The hypothesis was tested at 0.05 significant levels. Data were analysed using frequency, percentages count, pie chart and multiple regressions. The result showed that the b-value of football club jersey is 0.148 also the standard regression coefficient (Beta) is 0.089. The t = 4.759 is statistically significant at p = 0.000. This signified a relative contribution of football club jersey on EPL fans loyalty in Nigeria. Club jersey, which is the most outstanding identifier of every club, was found to significantly predict loyalty. The jersey on the body of the fan has become the site for a declaration of loyalty which becomes available for social interaction and negotiation. The Nigerian local league clubs in an attempt to keep Nigerian fans loyal must borrow a leaf from their European counterparts.

Keywords: Club jersey, English Premier League, football fans, Nigeria youth.

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Authors: Vipul M. Patel, Hemantkumar B. Mehta

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Technological innovations in electronic world demand novel, compact, simple in design, less costly and effective heat transfer devices. Closed Loop Pulsating Heat Pipe (CLPHP) is a passive phase change heat transfer device and has potential to transfer heat quickly and efficiently from source to sink. Thermal performance of a CLPHP is governed by various parameters such as number of U-turns, orientations, input heat, working fluids and filling ratio. The present paper is an attempt to predict the thermal performance of a CLPHP using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Filling ratio and heat input are considered as input parameters while thermal resistance is set as target parameter. Types of neural networks considered in the present paper are radial basis, generalized regression, linear layer, cascade forward back propagation, feed forward back propagation; feed forward distributed time delay, layer recurrent and Elman back propagation. Linear, logistic sigmoid, tangent sigmoid and Radial Basis Gaussian Function are used as transfer functions. Prediction accuracy is measured based on the experimental data reported by the researchers in open literature as a function of Mean Absolute Relative Deviation (MARD). The prediction of a generalized regression ANN model with spread constant of 4.8 is found in agreement with the experimental data for MARD in the range of ±1.81%.

Keywords: ANN models, CLPHP, filling ratio, generalized regression, spread constant.

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Authors: Zainoldin, K.H., Baba, A.S.

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Yogurt is a coagulated milk product obtained from the lactic acid fermentation by the action of Lactobacillus bulgaricus and Streptococcus thermophilus. The additions of fruits into milk may enhance the taste and the therapeutical values of milk products. However fruits also may change the fermentation behaviour. In this present study, the changes in physicochemical, the peptide concentration, total phenolics content and the antioxidant potential of yogurt upon the addition of Hylocereus polyrhizus and Hylocereus undatus (white and red dragon fruit) were investigated. Fruits enriched yogurt (10%, 20%, 30% w/w) were prepared and the pH, TTA, syneresis measurement, peptide concentration, total phenolics content and DPPH antioxidant inhibition percentage were determined. Milk fermentation rate was enhanced in red dragon fruit yogurt for all doses (-0.3606 - -0.4126 pH/h) while only white dragon fruit yogurt with 20% and 30% (w/w) composition showed increment in fermentation rate (-0.3471 - -0.3609 pH/h) compared to plain yogurt (-0.3369pH/h). All dragon fruit enriched yogurts generally showed lower pH readings (pH 3.95 - 4.03) compared to plain yogurt (pH 4.05). Both fruit yogurts showed a higher lactic acid percentage (1.14-1.23%) compared to plain yogurt (1.08%). Significantly higher syneresis percentage (57.19 - 70.32%) compared to plain yogurt (52.93%) were seen in all fruit enriched yogurts. The antioxidant activity of plain yogurt (19.16%) was enhanced by the presence of white and red dragon fruit (24.97- 45.74%). All fruit enriched yogurt showed an increment in total phenolic content (36.44 - 64.43mg/ml) compared to plain yogurt (20.25mg/ml). However, the addition of white and red dragon fruit did not enhance the proteolysis of milk during fermentation. Therefore, it could be concluded that the addition of white and red dragon fruit into yogurt enhanced the milk fermentation rate, lactic acid content, syneresis percentage, antioxidant activity, and total phenolics content in yogurt.

Keywords: Antioxidant activity, Hylocereus polyrhizus, Hylocereus undatus, yogurt

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Authors: Kiriaki-Maria Fameli, Vasiliki D. Assimakopoulos, Vasiliki Kotroni

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The Greater Athens Area (GAA) faces photochemical and particulate pollution episodes as a result of the combined effects of local pollutant emissions, regional pollution transport, synoptic circulation and topographic characteristics. The area has undergone significant changes since the Athens 2004 Olympic Games because of large scale infrastructure works that lead to the shift of population to areas previously characterized as rural, the increase of the traffic fleet and the operation of highways. However, few recent modelling studies have been performed due to the lack of an accurate, updated emission inventory. The photochemical modelling system MM5/CAMx was applied in order to study the photochemical and particulate pollution characteristics above the GAA for two distinct ten-day periods in the summer of 2006 and 2010, where air pollution episodes occurred. A new updated emission inventory was used based on official data. Comparison of modeled results with measurements revealed the importance and accuracy of the new Athens emission inventory as compared to previous modeling studies. The model managed to reproduce the local meteorological conditions, the daily ozone and particulates fluctuations at different locations across the GAA. Higher ozone levels were found at suburban and rural areas as well as over the sea at the south of the basin. Concerning PM10, high concentrations were computed at the city centre and the southeastern suburbs in agreement with measured data. Source apportionment analysis showed that different sources contribute to the ozone levels, the local sources (traffic, port activities) affecting its formation.

Keywords: Photochemical modelling, urban pollution, greater Athens area, MM5/CAMx.

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Authors: Wahyu Widowati, Hana Ratnawati, Tjandrawati Mozefis, Dwiyati Pujimulyani, Yelliantty Yelliantty

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Background: Atherosclerosis is the main cause of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with complex and multifactorial process including atherogenic lipoprotein, oxidized low density lipoprotein (LDL), endothelial dysfunction, plaque stability, vascular inflammation, thrombotic and fibrinolytic disorder, exercises and genetic factor Epidemiological studies have shown tea consumption inversely associated with the development and progression of atherosclerosis. The research objectives: to elucidate hypolipidemic, antioxidant effects, as well as ability to improve coronary artery’s histopathologyof black tea extract (BTE) and quercetin in atherosclerotic rats. Methods: The antioxidant activity was determined by using Superoxide Dismutase activity (SOD) of serum and lipid peroxidation product (Malondialdehyde) of plasma and lipid profile including cholesterol total, LDL, triglyceride (TG), High Density Lipoprotein (HDL) of atherosclerotic rats. Inducing atherosclerotic, rats were given cholesterol and cholic acid in feed during ten weeks until rats indicated atherosclerotic symptom with narrowed artery and foamy cells in the artery’s wall. After rats suffered atherosclerotic, the high cholesterol feed and cholic acid were stopped and rats were given BTE 450; 300; 150 mg/kg body weight (BW) daily, quercetin 15; 10; 5 mg/kg BW daily, compared to rats were given vitamin E 60 mg/kg/BW; simvastatin 2.7 mg/kg BW, probucol 30 mg/kg BW daily for 21 days (first treatment) and 42 days (second treatment), negative control (normal feed), positive control (atherosclerotic rats). Results: BTE and quercetin could lower cholesterol total, triglyceride, LDL MDA and increase HDL, SOD were comparable with simvastatin, probucol both for 21 days and 42 days treatment, as well to improve coronary arteries histopathology. Conclusions: BTE andquercetin have hypolipidemic and antioxidant effects, as well as improve coronary arteries histopathology in atherosclerotic rats.

Keywords: Black tea, quercetin, atherosclerosis, antioxidant, hypolipidemic, cardiovascular disease.

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Authors: Md. Maksudur Rahman Khan, M. Rahim Uddin, Hamidah Abdullah, Kaykobad Md. Rezaul Karim, Abu Yousuf, Chin Kui Cheng, Huei Ruey Ong

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A systematic study was conducted to explore the photocatalytic reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) into methanol on TiO₂ loaded copper ferrite (CuFe₂O₄) photocatalyst under visible light irradiation. The phases and crystallite size of the photocatalysts were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and it indicates CuFe₂O₄ as tetragonal phase incorporation with anatase TiO₂ in CuFe₂O₄/TiO₂ hetero-structure. The XRD results confirmed the formation of spinel type tetragonal CuFe₂O₄ phases along with predominantly anatase phase of TiO₂ in the CuFe₂O₄/TiO₂ hetero-structure. UV-Vis absorption spectrum suggested the formation of the hetero-junction with relatively lower band gap than that of TiO₂. Photoluminescence (PL) technique was used to study the electron–hole (e⁻/h⁺) recombination process. PL spectra analysis confirmed the slow-down of the recombination of electron–hole (e⁻/h⁺) pairs in the CuFe₂O₄/TiO₂ hetero-structure. The photocatalytic performance of CuFe₂O₄/TiO₂ was evaluated based on the methanol yield with varying amount of TiO₂ over CuFe₂O₄ (0.5:1, 1:1, and 2:1) and changing light intensity. The mechanism of the photocatalysis was proposed based on the fact that the predominant species of CO₂ in aqueous phase were dissolved CO₂ and HCO₃^- at pH ~5.9. It was evident that the CuFe₂O₄ could harvest the electrons under visible light irradiation, which could further be injected to the conduction band of TiO₂ to increase the life time of the electron and facilitating the reactions of CO₂ to methanol. The developed catalyst showed good recycle ability up to four cycles where the loss of activity was ~25%. Methanol was observed as the main product over CuFe₂O₄, but loading with TiO₂ remarkably increased the methanol yield. Methanol yield over CuFe₂O₄/TiO₂ was found to be about three times higher (651 μmol/g_cat L) than that of CuFe₂O₄ photocatalyst. This occurs because the energy of the band excited electrons lies above the redox potentials of the reaction products CO₂/CH₃OH.

Keywords: Photocatalysis, CuFe2O4/TiO2, band-gap energy, methanol.

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Authors: Gozel Judakova, Markus Bause

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We present and analyze reliable numerical techniques for simulating complex flow and transport phenomena related to natural gas transportation in pipelines. Such kind of problems are of high interest in the field of petroleum and environmental engineering. Modeling and understanding natural gas flow and transformation processes during transportation is important for the sake of physical realism and the design and operation of pipeline systems. In our approach a two fluid flow model based on a system of coupled hyperbolic conservation laws is considered for describing natural gas flow undergoing hydratization. The accurate numerical approximation of two-phase gas flow remains subject of strong interest in the scientific community. Such hyperbolic problems are characterized by solutions with steep gradients or discontinuities, and their approximation by standard finite element techniques typically gives rise to spurious oscillations and numerical artefacts. Recently, stabilized and discontinuous Galerkin finite element techniques have attracted researchers’ interest. They are highly adapted to the hyperbolic nature of our two-phase flow model. In the presentation a streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin approach and a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for the numerical approximation of our flow model of two coupled systems of Euler equations are presented. Then the efficiency and reliability of stabilized continuous and discontinous finite element methods for the approximation is carefully analyzed and the potential of the either classes of numerical schemes is investigated. In particular, standard benchmark problems of two-phase flow like the shock tube problem are used for the comparative numerical study.

Keywords: Discontinuous Galerkin method, Euler system, inviscid two-fluid model, streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin method, two-phase flow.

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Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

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Traditional service channel is losing its edge due to emerging service technology. To establish interaction with the clients, the service industry is using effective mechanism to give clients direct access to services with emerging technologies. Thus, as service science receives attention, special and unique consumption pattern evolves; henceforth, leading to new market mechanism and influencing attitudes toward life and consumption patterns. The market demand for customized services is thus valued due to the emphasis of personal value, and is gradually changing the demand and supply relationship in the traditional industry. In respect of interior design service, in the process of traditional interior design, a designer converts to a concrete form the concept generated from the ideas and needs dictated by a user (client), by using his/her professional knowledge and drawing tool. The final product is generated through iterations of communication and modification, which is a very time-consuming process. Although this process has been accelerated with the help of computer graphics software today, repeated discussions and confirmations with users are still required to complete the task. In consideration of what is addressed above a space user’s life model is analyzed with visualization technique to create an interaction system modeled after interior design knowledge. The space user document intuitively personal life experience in a model requirement chart, allowing a researcher to analyze interrelation between analysis documents, identify the logic and the substance of data conversion. The repeated data which is documented are then transformed into design information for reuse and sharing. A professional interior designer may sort out the correlation among user’s preference, life pattern and design specification, thus deciding the critical design elements in the process of service design.

Keywords: Information Design, Life Model-Based, Aesthetic Computing, Communication.

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Authors: Arash Parehkar, S. Jamshid Mousavi, Shoubo Bayazidi, Vahid Karami, Laleh Shahidi, Arash Azaranfar, Ali Moridi, M. Shabakhti, Tayebeh Ariyan, Mitra Tofigh, Kaveh Masoumi, Alireza Motahari

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Water resource systems modeling has constantly been a challenge through history for human beings. As the innovative methodological development is evolving alongside computer sciences on one hand, researches are likely to confront more complex and larger water resources systems due to new challenges regarding increased water demands, climate change and human interventions, socio-economic concerns, and environment protection and sustainability. In this research, an automatic calibration scheme has been applied on the Gilan’s large-scale water resource model using mathematical programming. The water resource model’s calibration is developed in order to attune unknown water return flows from demand sites in the complex Sefidroud irrigation network and other related areas. The calibration procedure is validated by comparing several gauged river outflows from the system in the past with model results. The calibration results are pleasantly reasonable presenting a rational insight of the system. Subsequently, the unknown optimized parameters were used in a basin-scale linear optimization model with the ability to evaluate the system’s performance against a reduced inflow scenario in future. Results showed an acceptable match between predicted and observed outflows from the system at selected hydrometric stations. Moreover, an efficient operating policy was determined for Sefidroud dam leading to a minimum water shortage in the reduced inflow scenario.

Keywords: Auto-calibration, Gilan, Large-Scale Water Resources, Simulation.

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Authors: Ramin Mirzada, Takuya Maruyama

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Kabul is the heart of political, commercial, cultural, educational and social life in Afghanistan and the fifth fastest growing city in the world. Minimum income inclined most of Kabul residents to use public transport, especially buses, although there is no proper bus system, beside that there is no proper fare exist in Kabul city Due to wars. From 1992 to 2001 during civil wars, Kabul suffered damage and destruction of its transportation facilities including pavements, sidewalks, traffic circles, drainage systems, traffic signs and signals, trolleybuses and almost all of the public transport system (e.g. Millie bus). This research is mainly focused on Kabul city’s transportation system. In this research, the data used have been gathered by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in 2008 and this data will be used to find demand and fare structure, additionally a survey was done in 2016 to find satisfaction level of Kabul residents for fare structure. Aim of this research is to observe the demand for Large Buses, compare to the actual supply from the government, analyze the current fare structure and compare it with the proposed fare (distance based fare) structure which has already been analyzed. Outcome of this research shows that the demand of Kabul city residents for the public transport (Large Buses) exceeds from the current supply, so that current public transportation (Large Buses) is not sufficient to serve public transport in Kabul city, worth to be mentioned, that in order to overcome this problem, there is no need to build new roads or exclusive way for buses. This research proposes government to change the fare from fixed fare to distance based fare, invest on public transportation and increase the number of large buses so that the current demand for public transport is met.

Keywords: Transportation, planning, public transport, large buses, fixed fare, distance based fare, Kabul, Afghanistan.

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Authors: Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen, Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi, Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O. K. Rahmat

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In the planning point of view, it is essential to have mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models, for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya. Multinomial Logit Model for all the intercity trips has been formulated to examine the national-level intercity transportation in Libya. The Multinomial logit model was calibrated using nationwide revealed preferences (RP) and stated preferences (SP) survey. The model was developed for deference purpose of intercity trips (work, social and recreational). The variables of the model have been predicted based on maximum likelihood method. The data needed for model development were obtained from all major intercity corridors in Libya. The final sample size consisted of 1300 interviews. About two-thirds of these data were used for model calibration, and the remaining parts were used for model validation. This study, which is the first of its kind in Libya, investigates the intercity traveler’s mode-choice behavior. The intercity travel mode-choice model was successfully calibrated and validated. The outcomes indicate that, the overall model is effective and yields higher precision of estimation. The proposed model is beneficial, due to the fact that, it is receptive to a lot of variables, and can be employed to determine the impact of modifications in the numerous characteristics on the need for various travel modes. Estimations of the model might also be of valuable to planners, who can estimate possibilities for various modes and determine the impact of unique policy modifications on the need for intercity travel.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, improved intercity transport, intercity mode-choice behavior, disaggregate analysis.

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Authors: Ali Ghaffari, Mansour Nikkhah Bahrami, Hesam Parsa

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In this paper a comprehensive model of a fossil fueled power plant (FFPP) is developed in order to evaluate the performance of a newly designed turbine follower controller. Considering the drawbacks of previous works, an overall model is developed to minimize the error between each subsystem model output and the experimental data obtained at the actual power plant. The developed model is organized in two main subsystems namely; Boiler and Turbine. Considering each FFPP subsystem characteristics, different modeling approaches are developed. For economizer, evaporator, superheater and reheater, first order models are determined based on principles of mass and energy conservation. Simulations verify the accuracy of the developed models. Due to the nonlinear characteristics of attemperator, a new model, based on a genetic-fuzzy systems utilizing Pittsburgh approach is developed showing a promising performance vis-à-vis those derived with other methods like ANFIS. The optimization constraints are handled utilizing penalty functions. The effect of increasing the number of rules and membership functions on the performance of the proposed model is also studied and evaluated. The turbine model is developed based on the equation of adiabatic expansion. Parameters of all evaluated models are tuned by means of evolutionary algorithms. Based on the developed model a fuzzy PI controller is developed. It is then successfully implemented in the turbine follower control strategy of the plant. In this control strategy instead of keeping control parameters constant, they are adjusted on-line with regard to the error and the error rate. It is shown that the response of the system improves significantly. It is also shown that fuel consumption decreases considerably.

Keywords: Attemperator, Evolutionary algorithms, Fossil fuelled power plant (FFPP), Fuzzy set theory, Gain scheduling

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Authors: Ke Zhao, Ballarat Colin Richardson, Jerry Courvisanos, John Crawford

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Climate change has profound consequences for the agriculture of south-eastern Australia and its climate-induced water shortage in the Murray-Darling Basin. Post Keynesian Economics (PKE) macro-dynamics, along with Kaleckian investment and growth theory, are used to develop an ecological-economic system dynamics model of this complex nonlinear river basin system. The Murray- Darling Basin Simulation Model (MDB-SM) uses the principles of PKE to incorporate the fundamental uncertainty of economic behaviors of farmers regarding the investments they make and the climate change they face, particularly as regards water ecosystem services. MDB-SM provides a framework for macroeconomic policies, especially for long-term fiscal policy and for policy directed at the sustainability of agricultural water, as measured by socio-economic well-being considerations, which include sustainable consumption and investment in the river basin. The model can also reproduce other ecological and economic aspects and, for certain parameters and initial values, exhibit endogenous business cycles and ecological sustainability with realistic characteristics. Most importantly, MDBSM provides a platform for the analysis of alternative economic policy scenarios. These results reveal the importance of understanding water ecosystem adaptation under climate change by integrating a PKE macroeconomic analytical framework with the system dynamics modelling approach. Once parameterised and supplied with historical initial values, MDB-SM should prove to be a practical tool to provide alternative long-term policy simulations of agricultural water and socio-economic well-being.

Keywords: Agricultural water, Macroeconomic dynamics, Modeling, Investment dynamics, Sustainability, Unemployment, Economics, Keynesian, Kaleckian.

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Authors: Guarry Montrose, Ted Soubdhan

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In the context of sustainable development and climate change, the adaptation of buildings to the climatic context in hot climates is a necessity if we want to improve living conditions in housing and reduce the risks to the health and productivity of occupants due to thermal discomfort in buildings. One can find a wide variety of efficient solutions but with high costs. In developing countries, especially tropical countries, we need to appreciate a technology with a very limited cost that is affordable for everyone, energy efficient and protects the environment. Biosourced insulation is a product based on plant fibers, animal products or products from recyclable paper or clothing. Their development meets the objectives of maintaining biodiversity, reducing waste and protecting the environment. In tropical or hot countries, the aim is to protect the building from solar thermal radiation, a source of discomfort. The aim of this work is in line with the logic of energy control and environmental protection, the approach is to make the occupants of buildings comfortable, reduce their carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂) and decrease their energy consumption (energy efficiency). We have chosen to study the thermo-physical properties of banana leaves and sawdust, especially their thermal conductivities, direct measurements were made using the flash method and the hot plate method. We also measured the heat flow on both sides of each sample by the hot box method. The results from these different experiences show that these materials are very efficient used as insulation. We have also conducted a building thermal simulation using banana leaves as one of the materials under Design Builder software. Air-conditioning load as well as CO₂ release was used as performance indicator. When the air-conditioned building cell is protected on the roof by banana leaves and integrated into the walls with solar protection of the glazing, it saves up to 64.3% of energy and avoids 57% of CO₂ emissions.

Keywords: Plant fibers, tropical climates, sustainable development, waste reduction.

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Authors: V. P. Muhamed Shajudheen, K. Viswanathan, K. Anitha Rani, A. Uma Maheswari, S. Saravana Kumar

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In this paper, a simple chemical precipitation route for the preparation of titanium dioxide nanoparticles, synthesized by using titanium tetra isopropoxide as a precursor and polyvinyl pyrrolidone (PVP) as a capping agent, is reported. The Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and Thermo Gravimetric Analysis (TGA) of the samples were recorded and the phase transformation temperature of titanium hydroxide, Ti(OH)₄ to titanium oxide, TiO₂ was investigated. The as-prepared Ti(OH)₄ precipitate was annealed at 800°C to obtain TiO₂ nanoparticles. The thermal, structural, morphological and textural characterizations of the TiO₂ nanoparticle samples were carried out by different techniques such as DSC-TGA, X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), Fourier Transform Infra-Red spectroscopy (FTIR), Micro Raman spectroscopy, UV-Visible absorption spectroscopy (UV-Vis), Photoluminescence spectroscopy (PL) and Field Effect Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM) techniques. The as-prepared precipitate was characterized using DSC-TGA and confirmed the mass loss of around 30%. XRD results exhibited no diffraction peaks attributable to anatase phase, for the reaction products, after the solvent removal. The results indicate that the product is purely rutile. The vibrational frequencies of two main absorption bands of prepared samples are discussed from the results of the FTIR analysis. The formation of nanosphere of diameter of the order of 10 nm, has been confirmed by FESEM. The optical band gap was found by using UV-Visible spectrum. From photoluminescence spectra, a strong emission was observed. The obtained results suggest that this method provides a simple, efficient and versatile technique for preparing TiO₂ nanoparticles and it has the potential to be applied to other systems for photocatalytic activity.

Keywords: TiO2 nanoparticles, chemical precipitation route, phase transition, Fourier Transform Infra-Red spectroscopy, micro Raman spectroscopy, UV-Visible absorption spectroscopy, Photoluminescence spectroscopy, Field Effect Scanning Electron Microscopy.

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Authors: Chang, Wei-Chen

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The purpose of this study is to research on thoughts transmitted from virtual fitting-room and to deduce discussion in an auxiliary narrative way. The research structure is based on 3D virtual fitting-room as the research subject. Initially, we will discuss the principles of narrate study, User Demand and so on by using a narrative design pattern to transmit their objective indications of “people-situation-reason-object", etc, and then to analyze the virtual fitting-room examples that are able to provide a new thinking for designers who engaged in clothing related industry – which comes in “story telling" and “user-centered design" forms. Clothing designs are not just to cover up the body to keep warm but to draw closer to people-s demand physiologically and psychologically through interactive designs so as to achieve cognition between people and environment. In the “outside" goal of clothing-s functional designs, we use tribal group-s behavior characteristics to “transform" the existing personal cultural stories, and “reform" them to design appropriate interactive products. Synthesizing the above matters, apart from being able to regard “narrate" as a kind of functional thinking process, we are also able to regard it as a kind of choice, arrangement and an activity of story expression, allowing interactive design-s spirit, product characteristics and experience ideas be transmitted to target tribal group in a visual image performance method. It is a far more confident and innovative attempt, and meanwhile, able to achieve entertainment, joyful and so forth fundamental interactive transmissions. Therefore, this study takes “user-centered design" thinking as a basis to establish a set of clothing designs with interactive experience patterns and to assist designers to examine the five sensual feeling of interactive demands in order to initiate a new value in textile industry.

Keywords: Virtual Fitting-room, Interactive Design, User Demand Evaluation, Intelligent Systems.

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