Search results for: vulnerability model

Authors: Joshua Harrell, Gideon Osei Bonsu, Susan Garza, Clarence Conner, Da’Neisha Harris, Emma Bukoswki, Zohreh Safari

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The Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) stands as a pivotal tool for gauging community resilience amidst diverse stressors, including pandemics like COVID-19. This paper synthesizes recent research and underscores the significance of SVI in elucidating the differential impacts of crises on communities. Drawing on studies by Fox et al. (2023) and Mah et al. (2023), we delve into the application of SVI alongside emerging data sources to uncover nuanced insights into community vulnerability. Specifically, we explore the utilization of SVI in conjunction with mobility data from platforms like SafeGraph to probe the intricate relationship between social vulnerability and mobility dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic. By leveraging 16 community variables derived from the American Community Survey, including socioeconomic status and demographic characteristics, SVI offers actionable intelligence for guiding targeted interventions and resource allocation. Building upon recent advancements, this paper contributes to the discourse on harnessing AI techniques to mitigate health disparities and fortify public health resilience in the face of pandemics and other crises.

Keywords: social vulnerability index, mobility dynamics, data analytics, health equity, pandemic preparedness, targeted interventions, data integration

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Authors: Abdelkader Hachemi, Boualem Remini

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Seawater intrusion is a significant challenge faced by coastal aquifers in the Mediterranean basin. This study aims to determine the position of the sharp interface between seawater and freshwater in the aquifer of Wadi Nador, located in the Wilaya of Tipaza, Algeria. A numerical areal sharp interface model using the finite element method is developed to investigate the spatial and temporal behavior of seawater intrusion. The aquifer is assumed to be homogeneous and isotropic. The simulation results are compared with geophysical prospection data obtained through electrical methods in 2011 to validate the model. The simulation results demonstrate a good agreement with the geophysical prospection data, confirming the accuracy of the sharp interface model. The position of the sharp interface in the aquifer is found to be approximately 1617 meters from the sea. Two scenarios are proposed to predict the interface position for the year 2024: one without pumping and the other with pumping. The results indicate a noticeable retreat of the sharp interface position in the first scenario, while a slight decline is observed in the second scenario. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the dynamics of seawater intrusion in the Wadi Nador aquifer. The predicted changes in the sharp interface position highlight the potential impact of pumping activities on the aquifer's vulnerability to seawater intrusion. This study emphasizes the importance of implementing measures to manage and mitigate seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. The sharp interface model developed in this research can serve as a valuable tool for assessing and monitoring the vulnerability of aquifers to seawater intrusion.

Keywords: seawater intrusion, sharp interface, coastal aquifer, algeria

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Authors: Mohammad Shoraka, Raulina Wojtkiewicz, Karthik Ramanathan

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Following the devastating summer 2021 floods in Germany, catastrophe modelers realized that hazard parameters, such as flow velocity, flood duration, and debris flow, play a significant role in capturing the overall damage potential of such events. Accounting for the location-specific static depth as the only hazard intensity metric may lead to a substantial underestimation of the vulnerability of building stock and, eventually, the loss potential of such catastrophic events. As the flow velocity increases, the hydrodynamic forces acting on various building components are amplified. Longer flood duration leads to water permeating porous components, incurring additional cleanup costs that contribute to an overall increase in damage. Debris flow possesses the power to erode extensive sections of buildings, thus substantially augmenting the extent of losses. This paper introduces four flow velocity classes, ranging from no flow velocity to major velocity, along with two flood duration classes: short and long, in estimating the vulnerability of the building stock. Additionally, the study examines the impact of the presence of debris flow and its role in exacerbating flood damage. The paper delves into the effects of each of these parameters on building component damageability and their collective impact on the overall building vulnerability.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, building vulnerability, hazard parameters, component damage function

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Authors: Hedyeh Gamini, Hadi Abdus

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Tsunami, as a natural disaster, is composed of waves that are usually caused by severe movements at the sea floor. Although tsunami and its consequences cannot be prevented in any way, by examining past tsunamis and extracting key points on how to deal with this incident and learning from it, a positive step can be taken to reduce the vulnerability of human settlements and reduce the risk of this phenomenon in architecture and urbanism. The method is reviewing and has examined the documents written and valid internet sites related to managing and reducing the vulnerability of human settlements in face of tsunami. This paper has explored the tsunamis in Indonesia (2004), Sri Lanka (2004) and Japan (2011), and of the study objectives has been understanding how they dealt with tsunami and extracting key points, and the lessons from them in terms of reduction of vulnerability of human settlements in dealing with the tsunami. Finally, strategies to prevent and reduce the vulnerability of communities at risk of tsunamis have been offered in terms of architecture and urban planning. According to what is obtained from the study of the recent tsunamis, the authorities' quality of dealing with them, how to manage the crisis and the manner of their construction, it can be concluded that to reduce the vulnerability of human settlements against tsunami, there are generally four ways that are: 1-Construction of tall buildings with opening on the first floor so that water can flow easily under and the direction of the building should be in a way that water passes easily from the side. 2- The construction of multi-purpose centers, which could be used as vertical evacuation during accidents. 3- Constructing buildings in core forms with diagonal orientation of the coastline, 4- Building physical barriers (natural and synthetic) such as water dams, mounds of earth, sea walls and creating forests

Keywords: tsunami, architecture, reducing vulnerability, human settlements, urbanism

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Authors: Bahareh Montakhabi

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Earthquake is known as one of the deadliest natural disasters, with a high potential for damage to life and property. Some of Iran's cities were completely destroyed after major earthquakes, and the people of the region suffered a lot of mental, financial and psychological damage. Tehran is one of the cities located on the fault line. According to experts, the only city that could be severely damaged by a moderate earthquake in Earthquake Engineering Intensity Scale (EEIS) (70% destruction) is Tehran because Tehran is built precisely on the fault. Seismic risk assessment (SRA) of cities in the scale of urban areas and neighborhoods is the first phase of the earthquake crisis management process, which can provide the information required to make optimal use of available resources and facilities in order to reduce the destructive effects and consequences of an earthquake. This study has investigated strategies to promote safety and reduce the vulnerability of worn-out urban textures in the District 12 of Tehran to the potential risk of earthquake aimed at prioritizing the factors affecting the vulnerability of worn-out urban textures to earthquake crises and how to reduce them, using the analytical-exploratory method, analytical hierarchy process (AHP), Expert choice and SWOT technique. The results of SWAT and AHP analysis of the vulnerability of the worn-out textures of District 12 to internal threats (1.70) and external threats (2.40) indicate weak safety of the textures of District 12 regarding internal and external factors and a high possibility of damage.

Keywords: risk management, vulnerability, worn-out textures, earthquake

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Authors: Abdelkader Hachemi & Boualem Remini

Abstract:

Seawater intrusion is a significant challenge faced by coastal aquifers in the Mediterranean basin. This study aims to determine the position of the sharp interface between seawater and freshwater in the aquifer of Wadi Nador, located in the Wilaya of Tipaza, Algeria. A numerical areal sharp interface model using the finite element method is developed to investigate the spatial and temporal behavior of seawater intrusion. The aquifer is assumed to be homogeneous and isotropic. The simulation results are compared with geophysical prospection data obtained through electrical methods in 2011 to validate the model. The simulation results demonstrate a good agreement with the geophysical prospection data, confirming the accuracy of the sharp interface model. The position of the sharp interface in the aquifer is found to be approximately 1617 meters from the sea. Two scenarios are proposed to predict the interface position for the year 2024: one without pumping and the other with pumping. The results indicate a noticeable retreat of the sharp interface position in the first scenario, while a slight decline is observed in the second scenario. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the dynamics of seawater intrusion in the Wadi Nador aquifer. The predicted changes in the sharp interface position highlight the potential impact of pumping activities on the aquifer's vulnerability to seawater intrusion. This study emphasizes the importance of implementing measures to manage and mitigate seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. The sharp interface model developed in this research can serve as a valuable tool for assessing and monitoring the vulnerability of aquifers to seawater intrusion.

Keywords: seawater, intrusion, sharp interface, Algeria

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Authors: Emhemed Shaklawoon, Ibrahim Althomali

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We propose that we identify different defense mechanisms that were used before the introduction of the cloud and compare if their protection mechanisms are still valuable and to what degree. Note that in order to defend against vulnerability, we must know how this vulnerability is abused in an attack. Only then, we will be able to recognize if it is easier or harder to defend against cyber attacks.

Keywords: cloud computing, privacy, cyber attacks, defend the cloud

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Authors: Okyu Kwon, Dongho Kang, Byungsik Kim, Seungkwon Jung

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We propose a technique to measure the impact of loss of traffic function in a particular area to surrounding areas. The proposed method is applied to the city of Seoul, which is the capital of South Korea, with a population of about ten million. Based on the actual road network in Seoul, we construct an abstract road network between 1kmx1km grid cells. The link weight of the abstract road network is re-adjusted considering traffic volume measured at several survey points. On the modified abstract road network, we evaluate the traffic vulnerability by calculating a network measure of betweenness centrality (BC) for every single grid cells. This study analyzes traffic impacts caused by road dysfunction due to heavy rainfall in urban areas. We could see the change of the BC value in all other grid cells by calculating the BC value once again when the specific grid cell lost its traffic function, that is, when the node disappeared on the grid-based road network. The results show that it is appropriate to use the sum of the BC variation of other cells as the influence index of each lattice cell on traffic. This research was supported by a grant (2017-MOIS31-004) from Fundamental Technology Development Program for Extreme Disaster Response funded by Korean Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS).

Keywords: vulnerability, road network, beweenness centrality, heavy rainfall, road impact

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Authors: Laura Micheli, Majd Hijazi, Mahmoud Faytarouni

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The damage reported by oil and gas industrial facilities revealed the utmost vulnerability of steel liquid storage tanks to seismic events. The failure of steel storage tanks may yield devastating and long-lasting consequences on built and natural environments, including the release of hazardous substances, uncontrolled fires, and soil contamination with hazardous materials. It is, therefore, fundamental to reliably predict the damage that steel liquid storage tanks will likely experience under future seismic hazard events. The seismic performance of steel liquid storage tanks is usually assessed using vulnerability curves obtained from the numerical simulation of a tank under different hazard scenarios. However, the computational demand of high-fidelity numerical simulation models, such as finite element models, makes the vulnerability assessment of liquid storage tanks time-consuming and often impractical. As a solution, this paper presents a surrogate model-based strategy for predicting seismic-induced damage in steel liquid storage tanks. In the proposed strategy, the surrogate model is leveraged to reduce the computational demand of time-consuming numerical simulations. To create the data set for training the surrogate model, field damage data from past earthquakes reconnaissance surveys and reports are collected. Features representative of steel liquid storage tank characteristics (e.g., diameter, height, liquid level, yielding stress) and seismic excitation parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, magnitude) are extracted from the field damage data. The collected data are then utilized to train a surrogate model that maps the relationship between tank characteristics, seismic hazard parameters, and seismic-induced damage via a data-driven surrogate model. Different types of surrogate algorithms, including naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, and random forest, are investigated, and results in terms of accuracy are reported. The model that yields the most accurate predictions is employed to predict future damage as a function of tank characteristics and seismic hazard intensity level. Results show that the proposed approach can be used to estimate the extent of damage in steel liquid storage tanks, where the use of data-driven surrogates represents a viable alternative to computationally expensive numerical simulation models.

Keywords: damage prediction , data-driven model, seismic performance, steel liquid storage tanks, surrogate model

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risks are intimately linked to human vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially insecurity, and risk. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means increasing security and decreasing risk. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risks (including threats, assaults, crisis etc.), is to understand the vulnerabilities these external phenomena evoke in humans. As is argued, the basis of risk evaluation, as well as responses, is the more or less subjective perception by the individual person, or a group of persons, exposed to the external event or phenomena in question. This will be determined primarily by the vulnerability or vulnerabilities that the external factor are perceived to evoke. In this way, risk perception is primarily an inward dynamic, rather than an outward one. Therefore, a route towards an understanding of the perception of risks, is a closer scrutiny of the vulnerabilities which they can evoke, thereby approaching an understanding of what in the paper is called the essence of risk (including threat, assault etc.), or that which a certain perceived risk means to an individual or group of individuals. As a necessary basis for gauging the wide spectrum of potential risks and their meaning, the paper proposes a model of human vulnerabilities, drawing from i.a. a long tradition of needs theory. In order to account for the subjectivity factor, which mediates between the innate vulnerabilities on the one hand, and the event or phenomenon out there on the other hand, an ensuing ontological discussion about the timespace characteristics of risk/threat/assault as perceived by humans leads to the positing of two dimensions. These two dimensions are applied on the vulnerabilities, resulting in a modelling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which are related to each other and together represent a dynamic whole. In approaching the problem of risk perception, the paper thus defines the relevant realms of vulnerabilities, depicting them as a dynamic whole. With reference to a substantial body of literature and a growing international policy trend since the 1990s, this model is put in the language of human security - a concept relevant not only for international security studies and policy, but also for other academic disciplines and spheres of human endeavor.

Keywords: human security, timespace, vulnerabilities, risk perception

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Authors: Diana Reckien

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Vulnerability assessments are increasingly used to support policy-making in complex environments, like urban areas. Usually, vulnerability studies include the construction of aggregate (sub-) indices and the subsequent mapping of indices across an area of interest. Vulnerability studies show a couple of advantages: they are great communication tools, can inform a wider general debate about environmental issues, and can help allocating and efficiently targeting scarce resources for adaptation policy and planning. However, they also have a number of challenges: Vulnerability assessments are constructed on the basis of a wide range of methodologies and there is no single framework or methodology that has proven to serve best in certain environments, indicators vary highly according to the spatial scale used, different variables and metrics produce different results, and aggregate or composite vulnerability indicators that are mapped easily distort or bias the picture of vulnerability as they hide the underlying causes of vulnerability and level out conflicting reasons of vulnerability in space. So, there is urgent need to further develop the methodology of vulnerability studies towards a common framework, which is one reason of the paper. We introduce a social vulnerability approach, which is compared with other approaches of bio-physical or sectoral vulnerability studies relatively developed in terms of a common methodology for index construction, guidelines for mapping, assessment of sensitivity, and verification of variables. Two approaches are commonly pursued in the literature. The first one is an additive approach, in which all potentially influential variables are weighted according to their importance for the vulnerability aspect, and then added to form a composite vulnerability index per unit area. The second approach includes variable reduction, mostly Principal Component Analysis (PCA) that reduces the number of variables that are interrelated into a smaller number of less correlating components, which are also added to form a composite index. We test these two approaches of constructing indices on the area of New York City as well as two different metrics of variables used as input and compare the outcome for the 5 boroughs of NY. Our analysis yields that the mapping exercise yields particularly different results in the outer regions and parts of the boroughs, such as Outer Queens and Staten Island. However, some of these parts, particularly the coastal areas receive the highest attention in the current adaptation policy. We imply from this that the current adaptation policy and practice in NY might need to be discussed, as these outer urban areas show relatively low social vulnerability as compared with the more central parts, i.e. the high dense areas of Manhattan, Central Brooklyn, Central Queens and the Southern Bronx. The inner urban parts receive lesser adaptation attention, but bear a higher risk of damage in case of hazards in those areas. This is conceivable, e.g., during large heatwaves, which would more affect more the inner and poorer parts of the city as compared with the outer urban areas. In light of the recent planning practice of NY one needs to question and discuss who in NY makes adaptation policy for whom, but the presented analyses points towards an under representation of the needs of the socially vulnerable population, such as the poor, the elderly, and ethnic minorities, in the current adaptation practice in New York City.

Keywords: vulnerability mapping, social vulnerability, additive approach, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), New York City, United States, adaptation, social sensitivity

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Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: James Hilton Williams

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Recent tsunami events, including the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel Tsunami, Chile, have highlighted the potential for tsunami impacts on the built environment. International research in the tsunami impacts domain has been largely focused toward impacts on buildings and casualty estimations, while only limited attention has been placed on the impacts on infrastructure which is critical for the recovery of impacted communities. New Zealand, with 75% of the population within 10 km of the coast, has a large amount of coastal infrastructure exposed to local, regional and distant tsunami sources. To effectively manage tsunami risk for New Zealand critical infrastructure, including energy, transportation, and communications, the vulnerability of infrastructure networks and components must first be determined. This research develops infrastructure asset vulnerability, functionality and repair- cost functions based on international post-event tsunami impact assessment data from technologically similar countries, including Japan and Chile, and adapts these to New Zealand. These functions are then utilized within a New Zealand based impact framework, allowing for cost benefit analyses, effective tsunami risk management strategies and mitigation options for exposed critical infrastructure to be determined, which can also be applied internationally.

Keywords: impact assessment, infrastructure, tsunami impacts, vulnerability functions

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Authors: Azzouzi Fadoua

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This study focuses on the diagnosis of the dynamics of natural resources in a semi-arid mountainous weakened by natural vulnerability and anthropogenic action. This is evident in the forms of hydraulic erosion and degradation of agricultural land. The rate of this damaged land is 53%, with a strong presence of concentrated erosion; this shows that balanced and semi-balanced environments are less apparent to the Watershed, representing 47%. The results revealed the crucial role of the slopes and the density of the hydraulic networks to facilitate the transport of fine elements, at the level of the slopes with low vegetation intensity, to the lake of the dam. Something that endangers the siltation of the latter. After the study of natural and anthropogenic elements, it turned out that natural vulnerability is an integral part of the current dynamic, especially when it coincides with the overexploitation of natural resources, in this case, the exploitation of steep slopes for the cultivation of cereals and overgrazing. This causes the soil to pile up and increase the rate of runoff.

Keywords: watershed, erosion, natural vulnerability, anthropogenic

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Authors: Yi-Chun Kuo, Jo-Chieh Lin

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The objective of a supply chain strategy is to reduce waste and increase efficiency to attain cost benefits, and to guarantee supply chain flexibility when facing the ever-changing market environment in order to meet customer requirements. Strategy implementation aims to fulfill common goals and attain benefits by integrating upstream and downstream enterprises, sharing information, conducting common planning, and taking part in decision making, so as to enhance the overall performance of the supply chain. With the rise of outsourcing and globalization, the increasing dependence on suppliers and customers and the rapid development of information technology, the complexity and uncertainty of the supply chain have intensified, and supply chain vulnerability has surged, resulting in adverse effects on supply chain performance. Thus, this study aims to use supply chain vulnerability as a moderating variable and apply structural equation modeling (SEM) to determine the relationships among supply chain strategy, supply chain integration, and supply chain performance, as well as the moderating effect of supply chain vulnerability on supply chain performance. The data investigation of this study was questionnaires which were collected from the management level of enterprises in Taiwan and China, 149 questionnaires were received. The result of confirmatory factor analysis shows that the path coefficients of supply chain strategy on supply chain integration and supply chain performance are positive (0.497, t= 4.914; 0.748, t= 5.919), having a significantly positive effect. Supply chain integration is also significantly positively correlated to supply chain performance (0.192, t = 2.273). The moderating effects of supply chain vulnerability on supply chain strategy and supply chain integration to supply chain performance are significant (7.407; 4.687). In Taiwan, 97.73% of enterprises are small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) focusing on receiving original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and original design manufacturer (ODM) orders. In order to meet the needs of customers and to respond to market changes, these enterprises especially focus on supply chain flexibility and their integration with the upstream and downstream enterprises. According to the observation of this research, the effect of supply chain vulnerability on supply chain performance is significant, and so enterprises need to attach great importance to the management of supply chain risk and conduct risk analysis on their suppliers in order to formulate response strategies when facing emergency situations. At the same time, risk management is incorporated into the supply chain so as to reduce the effect of supply chain vulnerability on the overall supply chain performance.

Keywords: supply chain integration, supply chain performance, supply chain vulnerability, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Maryam Solgi, Behzad Shahmohammadi, Morteza Raissi Dehkordi

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One of the main steps for seismic retrofitting of buildings is to determine the vulnerability of structures. While current procedures for evaluating existing buildings are complicated, and there is no limitation between short, middle-high, and tall buildings. This research utilizes a simplified method for assessing structures, which is adequate for existing reinforced concrete buildings. To approach this aim, Simple Lateral Mechanisms Analysis (SLaMA) procedure proposed by NZSEE (New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering) has been carried out. In this study, three RC moment-resisting frame buildings are determined. First, these buildings have been evaluated by inelastic static procedure (Pushover) based on acceptance criteria. Then, Park-Ang Damage Index is determined for the whole members of each building by Inelastic Time History Analysis. Next, the Simple Lateral Mechanisms Analysis procedure, a hand method, is carried out to define the capacity of structures. Ultimately, existing procedures are compared with Peak Ground Acceleration caused to fail (PGAfail). The results of this comparison emphasize that the Pushover procedure and SLaMA method define a greater value of PGAfail than the Park-Ang Damage model.

Keywords: peak ground acceleration caused to fail, reinforced concrete moment-frame buildings, seismic vulnerability analysis, simple lateral mechanisms analysis

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Authors: Eleni Stefania Kalapoda

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Recurring heat waves due to the global climate change emergency pose continuous risks to human health and urban resources. Local and state decision-makers incorporate Heat Vulnerability Indices (HVIs) to quantify and map the relative impact on human health in emergencies. These maps enable government officials to identify the highest-risk districts and to concentrate emergency planning efforts and available resources accordingly (e.g., to reevaluate the location and the number of heat-relief centers). Even though the framework of conducting an HVI is unique per municipality, its accuracy in assessing the heat risk is limited. To resolve this issue, varied housing-related metrics should be included. This paper quantifies and classifies NYC’s single detached housing typology within high-vulnerable NYC districts using detailed energy simulations and post-processing calculations. The results show that the variation in indoor heat risk depends significantly on the dwelling’s design/operation characteristics, concluding that low-ventilated dwellings are the most vulnerable ones. Also, it confirmed that when building-level determinants of exposure are excluded from the assessment, HVI fails to capture important components of heat vulnerability. Lastly, the overall vulnerability ratio of the housing units was calculated between 0.11 to 1.6 indoor heat degrees in terms of ventilation and shading capacity, insulation degree, and other building attributes.

Keywords: heat vulnerability index, energy efficiency, urban heat, resiliency to heat, climate adaptation, climate mitigation, building energy

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Authors: Rifaldy, Misbahudin, Khalid Rizky, Ricky Aryanto, M. Alfiyan Bagus, Fahri Septianto, Firman Najib Wibisana, Excobar Arman

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Indonesia is a country that has a high level of disaster because it is on the ring of fire, and there are several regions with three major plates meeting in the world. So that disaster analysis must always be done to see the potential disasters that might always occur, especially in this research are landslides and liquefaction. This research was conducted to analyze areas that are vulnerable to landslides and liquefaction hazards and their relationship with the assessment of the issue of moving the new capital of the Republic of Indonesia to the island of Kalimantan with a total area of 612,267.22 km². The method in this analysis uses the Analytical Hierarchy Process and consistency ratio testing as a complex and unstructured problem-solving process into several parameters by providing values. The parameters used in this analysis are the slope, land cover, lithology distribution, wetness index, earthquake data, peak ground acceleration. Weighted overlay was carried out from all these parameters using the percentage value obtained from the Analytical Hierarchy Process and confirmed its accuracy with a consistency ratio so that a percentage of the area obtained with different vulnerability classification values was obtained. Based on the analysis results obtained vulnerability classification from very high to low vulnerability. There are (0.15%) 918.40083 km² of highly vulnerable, medium (20.75%) 127,045,44815 km², low (56.54%) 346,175.886188 km², very low (22.56%) 138,127.484832 km². This research is expected to be able to map landslides and liquefaction disasters on the island of Kalimantan and provide consideration of the suitability of regional development of the new capital of the Republic of Indonesia. Also, this research is expected to provide input or can be applied to all regions that are analyzing the vulnerability of landslides and liquefaction or the suitability of the development of certain regions.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, Borneo Island, landslide and liquefaction, vulnerability analysis

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Authors: Nasiru Medugu Idris

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This research is aimed at assessing the vulnerability of climate change to rural communities (farmers, herdsmen and fishermen) in Nigeria with the view to study the underlying causes and degree of vulnerability to climate change and examine the conflict between farmers and herdsmen as a result of climate change. This research employed the use of quantitative and qualitative means of data gathering techniques as well as physical observations. Six states (Kebbi, Adamawa, Nasarawa, Osun, Ebonyi, and Akwa Ibom) have been selected on the ground that they are key food production areas in the country and are therefore essential to continual food security in the country. So also, they also double as fishing communities in order to aid the comprehensive study of all the effects on climate on farmers and fishermen alike. Community focus group discussions were carried out in the various states for an interactive session and also to have firsthand information on their level of awareness on climate change. Climate data from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency over the past decade were collected for the purpose of analyzing trends in climate. The study observed that the level of vulnerability of rural dwellers most especially farmers, herdsmen and fishermen to climate change is very high due to their socioeconomic, ethnic and historical perspective of their trend. The study, therefore, recommends that urgent step needs to be put in place to help control natural hazards and man-made disasters and serious measures are also needed in order to minimize severe societal, economic and political crises; some of which may either escalate to violent conflicts or could be avoided by efforts of conflict resolution and prevention by the initiation of a process of de-escalation. So this study has recommended the best-fit adaptive and mitigation measures to climate change vulnerability in rural communities of Nigeria.

Keywords: adaptation, farmers, fishermen, herdsmen

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Authors: Melese Wondatir

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Flooding ranks among the most destructive natural disasters, impacting millions of individuals globally and resulting in substantial economic, social, and environmental repercussions. This study's objective was to create a comprehensive model that assesses the Nile River basin's susceptibility to flood damage and improves existing flood risk management strategies. Authorities responsible for enacting policies and implementing measures may benefit from this research to acquire essential information about the flood, including its scope and susceptible areas. The identification of severe flood damage locations and efficient mitigation techniques were made possible by the use of geospatial data. Slope, elevation, distance from the river, drainage density, topographic witness index, rainfall intensity, distance from road, NDVI, soil type, and land use type were all used throughout the study to determine the vulnerability of flood damage. Ranking elements according to their significance in predicting flood damage risk was done using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and geospatial approaches. The analysis finds that the most important parameters determining the region's vulnerability are distance from the river, topographic witness index, rainfall, and elevation, respectively. The consistency ratio (CR) value obtained in this case is 0.000866 (<0.1), which signifies the acceptance of the derived weights. Furthermore, 10.84m2, 83331.14m2, 476987.15m2, 24247.29m2, and 15.83m2 of the region show varying degrees of vulnerability to flooding—very low, low, medium, high, and very high, respectively. Due to their close proximity to the river, the northern-western regions of the Nile River basin—especially those that are close to Sudanese cities like Khartoum—are more vulnerable to flood damage, according to the research findings. Furthermore, the AUC ROC curve demonstrates that the categorized vulnerability map achieves an accuracy rate of 91.0% based on 117 sample points. By putting into practice strategies to address the topographic witness index, rainfall patterns, elevation fluctuations, and distance from the river, vulnerable settlements in the area can be protected, and the impact of future flood occurrences can be greatly reduced. Furthermore, the research findings highlight the urgent requirement for infrastructure development and effective flood management strategies in the northern and western regions of the Nile River basin, particularly in proximity to major towns such as Khartoum. Overall, the study recommends prioritizing high-risk locations and developing a complete flood risk management plan based on the vulnerability map.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, Blue Nile Basin, geospatial techniques, flood vulnerability, multi-criteria decision making

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Authors: Ojetunde Ojewola, Mark Morgan, Sonja Wilhelm-Stanis

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State parks and historic sites are vulnerable to extreme weather events which can affect visitor experiences, management priorities, and legislative requests for disaster relief funds. Recently, global attention has been focused on the perceptions of global warming and how the presence of extreme weather events might impact protected areas, both now and in the future. The effects of climate change are not equally distributed across the United States, leading to varied perceptions based on personal experience with extreme weather events. This study describes employee perceptions of vulnerability and resilience in Missouri State Parks & Historic Sites due to extreme weather events that occur across the state but grouped according to physiographic provinces. Using a four-point rating scale, perceptions of vulnerability and resilience were divided into high and low sub-groups, thus allowing researchers to construct a two by two typology of employee responses. Subsequently, this data was used to develop a three-point continuum of environmental concern (higher scores meant more concern). Employee scores were then compared against a statewide assessment which combined social, economic, infrastructural and environmental indicators of vulnerability and resilience. State park employees thought the system was less vulnerable and more resilient to climate change than data found in statewide assessment This result was also consistent in three out of five physiographic regions across Missouri. Implications suggest that Missouri state park should develop a climate change adaptation strategy for emergency preparedness.

Keywords: extreme weather events, resilience, state parks, vulnerability

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Authors: Cesar Vazquez-Gonzalez, Sophie Avila-Foucat, Leonardo Ortiz-Lozano, Patricia Moreno-Casasola, Alejandro Granados-Barba

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In the last twenty years, academic and scientific literature has been focused on understanding the processes and factors of coastal social-ecological systems vulnerability and resilience. Some scholars argue that resilience and vulnerability are isolated concepts due to their epistemological origin, while others note the existence of a strong resilience-vulnerability relationship. Here we present an ordinal logistic regression model based on the analytical framework about dynamic resilience-vulnerability interaction along adaptive cycle of complex systems and disasters process phases (during, recovery and learning). In this way, we demonstrate that 1) during the disturbance, absorptive capacity (resilience as a core of attributes) and external response capacity explain the probability of households capitals to diminish the damage, and exposure sets the thresholds about the amount of disturbance that households can absorb, 2) at recovery, absorptive capacity and external response capacity explain the probability of households capitals to recovery faster (resilience as an outcome) from damage, and 3) at learning, adaptive capacity (resilience as a core of attributes) explains the probability of households adaptation measures based on the enhancement of physical capital. As a result, during the disturbance phase, exposure has the greatest weight in the probability of capital’s damage, and households with absorptive and external response capacity elements absorbed the impact of floods in comparison with households without these elements. At the recovery phase, households with absorptive and external response capacity showed a faster recovery on their capital; however, the damage sets the thresholds of recovery time. More importantly, diversity in financial capital increases the probability of recovering other capital, but it becomes a liability so that the probability of recovering the household finances in a longer time increases. At learning-reorganizing phase, adaptation (modifications to the house) increases the probability of having less damage on physical capital; however, it is not very relevant. As conclusion, resilience is an outcome but also core of attributes that interacts with vulnerability along the adaptive cycle and disaster process phases. Absorptive capacity can diminish the damage experienced by floods; however, when exposure overcomes thresholds, both absorptive and external response capacity are not enough. In the same way, absorptive and external response capacity diminish the recovery time of capital, but the damage sets the thresholds in where households are not capable of recovering their capital.

Keywords: absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, capital, floods, recovery-learning, social-ecological systems

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Authors: Umesh Kumar Singh, Abhishek Raghuvanshi, Suyash Kumar Singh

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As IoT networks gain popularity, they are more susceptible to security breaches. As a result, it is crucial to analyze the IoT platform as a whole from the standpoint of core security concepts. The Internet of Things relies heavily on wireless networks, which are well-known for being susceptible to a wide variety of attacks. This article provides an analysis of many techniques that may be used to identify vulnerabilities in the software and hardware associated with the Internet of Things (IoT). In the current investigation, an experimental setup is built with the assistance of server computers, client PCs, Internet of Things development boards, sensors, and cloud subscriptions. Through the use of network host scanning methods and vulnerability scanning tools, raw data relating to IoT-based applications and devices may be collected. Shodan is a tool that is used for scanning, and it is also used for effective vulnerability discovery in IoT devices as well as penetration testing. This article presents an efficient mitigation plan for encountering vulnerabilities in the Internet of Things.

Keywords: internet of things, security, privacy, vulnerability identification, mitigation plan

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Authors: Se-Han Lee, Kwang-Woo Go, Gwang-Hyun Ahn, Hee-Sung Park, Cheol-Kyu Han, Jun-Bo Shim, Geun-Chul Kang, Hyun-Jung Lee

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In recent years, with the advent of smart cars and the expansion of the market, the announcement of 'Adventures in Automotive Networks and Control Units' at the DEFCON21 conference in 2013 revealed that cars are not safe from hacking. As a result, the HEAVENS model considering not only the functional safety of the vehicle but also the security has been suggested. However, the HEAVENS model only presents a simple process, and there are no detailed procedures and activities for each process, making it difficult to apply it to the actual vehicle security vulnerability check. In this paper, we propose an automated attack database that systematically summarizes attack vectors, attack types, and vulnerable vehicle models to prepare for various car hacking attacks, and data flow diagrams that can detect various vulnerabilities and suggest a way to materialize the HEAVENS model.

Keywords: automotive security, HEAVENS, car hacking, security model, information security

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Florim Grajcevci, Flamur Grajcevci, Fatos Tahiri, Hamdi Kurteshi

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The territory of Kosova is actually included in one of the most seismic-prone regions in Europe. Therefore, the earthquakes are not so rare in Kosova; and when they occurred, the consequences have been rather destructive. The importance of assessing the seismic resistance of existing masonry structures has drawn strong and growing interest in the recent years. Engineering included those of Vulnerability, Loss of Buildings and Risk assessment, are also of a particular interest. This is due to the fact that this rapidly developing field is related to great impact of earthquakes on the socioeconomic life in seismic-prone areas, as Kosova and Prishtina are, too. Such work paper for Prishtina city may serve as a real basis for possible interventions in historic buildings as are museums, mosques, old residential buildings, in order to adequately strengthen and/or repair them, by reducing the seismic risk within acceptable limits. The procedures of the vulnerability assessment of building structures have concentrated on structural system, capacity, and the shape of layout and response parameters. These parameters will provide expected performance of the very important existing building structures on the vulnerability and the overall behavior during the earthquake excitations. The structural systems of existing historical buildings in Pristina, Kosovo, are dominantly unreinforced brick or stone masonry with very high risk potential from the expected earthquakes in the region. Therefore, statistical analysis based on the observed damage-deformation, cracks, deflections and critical building elements, would provide more reliable and accurate results for the regional assessments. The analytical technique was used to develop a preliminary evaluation methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability of the respective structures. One of the main objectives is also to identify the buildings that are highly vulnerable to damage caused from inadequate seismic performance-response. Hence, the damage scores obtained from the derived vulnerability functions will be used to categorize the evaluated buildings as “stabile”, “intermediate”, and “unstable”. The vulnerability functions are generated based on the basic damage inducing parameters, namely number of stories (S), lateral stiffness (LS), capacity curve of total building structure (CCBS), interstory drift (IS) and overhang ratio (OR).

Keywords: vulnerability, ductility, seismic microzone, ductility, energy efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Adam Gorine, Faten Spondon

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Python is considered the most popular programming language and offers its own ecosystem for archiving and maintaining open-source software packages. This system is called the python package index (PyPI), the repository of this programming language. Unfortunately, one-third of these software packages have vulnerabilities that allow attackers to execute code automatically when a vulnerable or malicious package is installed. This paper contributes to large-scale empirical studies investigating security issues in the python ecosystem by evaluating package vulnerabilities. These provide a series of implications that can help the security of software ecosystems by improving the process of discovering, fixing, and managing package vulnerabilities. The vulnerable dataset is generated using the NVD, the national vulnerability database, and the Snyk vulnerability dataset. In addition, we evaluated 807 vulnerability reports in the NVD and 3900 publicly known security vulnerabilities in Python Package Manager (pip) from the Snyk database from 2002 to 2022. As a result, many Python vulnerabilities appear in high severity, followed by medium severity. The most problematic areas have been improper input validation and denial of service attacks. A hybrid scanning tool that combines the three scanners bandit, snyk and dlint, which provide a clear report of the code vulnerability, is also described.

Keywords: Python vulnerabilities, bandit, Snyk, Dlint, Python package index, ecosystem, static analysis, malicious attacks

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Charuvan Kasemsap

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This research was studied in Bangnampriao District, Chachernsao Province, Thailand. The primary data relating to flooding, drought, and saline intrusion problem on agriculture were collected by surveying, focus group, and in-depth interview with agricultural officers, technical officers of irrigation department, and local government leader of Bangnampriao District. The likelihood and consequence of risk were determined the risk index by risk assessment matrix. In addition, the risk index and the total coping capacity scores were investigated the vulnerability index by vulnerability matrix. It was found that the high-risk drought and saline intrusion was dramatically along Bang Pakong River owing to the end destination of Chao Phraya Irrigation system of Central Thailand. This leads yearly the damage of rice paddy, mango tree, orchard, and fish pond. Therefore, some agriculture avoids rice growing during January to May, and also pumps fresh water from a canal into individual storage pond. However, Bangnampriao District will be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change. Monthly precipitations are expected to decrease in number; dry seasons are expected to be more in number and longer in duration. Thus, the risk and vulnerability of agriculture are also increasing. Adaptation strategies need to be put in place in order to enhance the resilience of the agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, bangnampriao, climate change, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 394

Authors: Mediha B. Sılaydın Aydın, Emine D. Kahraman

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One of the important impacts of climate change is the sea level rise. Turkey is a peninsula, so the coastal areas of the country are threatened by the problem of sea level rise. Therefore, the urbanized coastal areas are highly vulnerable to climate change. At the aim of enhancing spatial resilience of urbanized areas, this question arises: What should be the priority intervention subject in the urban planning process for a given city. To answer this question, by focusing on the problem of sea level rise, this study aims to determine spatial vulnerability typologies and levels of Turkey coastal cities based on morphological, physical and social characteristics. As a method, spatial vulnerability of coastal cities is determined by two steps as level and type. Firstly, physical structure, morphological structure and social structure were examined in determining spatial vulnerability levels. By determining these levels, most vulnerable areas were revealed as a priority in adaptation studies. Secondly, all parameters are also used to determine spatial typologies. Typologies are determined for coastal cities in order to use as a base for urban planning studies. Adaptation to climate change is crucial for developing countries like Turkey so, this methodology and created typologies could be a guide for urban planners as spatial directors and an example for other developing countries in the context of adaptation to climate change. The results demonstrate that the urban settlements located on the coasts of the Marmara Sea, the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean respectively, are more vulnerable than the cities located on the Black Sea’s coasts to sea level rise.

Keywords: climate change, coastal cities, vulnerability, urban land use planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 283

Authors: Mst Shapna Akter, Hossain Shahriar

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One of the most important challenges in the field of software code audit is the presence of vulnerabilities in software source code. Every year, more and more software flaws are found, either internally in proprietary code or revealed publicly. These flaws are highly likely exploited and lead to system compromise, data leakage, or denial of service. C and C++ open-source code are now available in order to create a largescale, machine-learning system for function-level vulnerability identification. We assembled a sizable dataset of millions of opensource functions that point to potential exploits. We developed an efficient and scalable vulnerability detection method based on deep neural network models that learn features extracted from the source codes. The source code is first converted into a minimal intermediate representation to remove the pointless components and shorten the dependency. Moreover, we keep the semantic and syntactic information using state-of-the-art word embedding algorithms such as glove and fastText. The embedded vectors are subsequently fed into deep learning networks such as LSTM, BilSTM, LSTM-Autoencoder, word2vec, BERT, and GPT-2 to classify the possible vulnerabilities. Furthermore, we proposed a neural network model which can overcome issues associated with traditional neural networks. Evaluation metrics such as f1 score, precision, recall, accuracy, and total execution time have been used to measure the performance. We made a comparative analysis between results derived from features containing a minimal text representation and semantic and syntactic information. We found that all of the deep learning models provide comparatively higher accuracy when we use semantic and syntactic information as the features but require higher execution time as the word embedding the algorithm puts on a bit of complexity to the overall system.

Keywords: cyber security, vulnerability detection, neural networks, feature extraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: Xinghang Lv, Tao Peng, Jia Chen, Junping Liu, Xinrong Hu, Ruhan He, Minghua Jiang, Wenli Cao

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As one of the most dangerous vulnerabilities, effective detection of buffer overflow vulnerabilities is extremely necessary. Traditional detection methods are not accurate enough and consume more resources to meet complex and enormous code environment at present. In order to resolve the above problems, we propose the method for Buffer overflow detection based on Abstract syntax tree, Control flow graph, and Data dependency graph (BodeACD) in C/C++ programs with source code. Firstly, BodeACD constructs the function samples of buffer overflow that are available on Github, then represents them as code representation sequences, which fuse control flow, data dependency, and syntax structure of source code to reduce information loss during code representation. Finally, BodeACD learns vulnerability patterns for vulnerability detection through deep learning. The results of the experiments show that BodeACD has increased the precision and recall by 6.3% and 8.5% respectively compared with the latest methods, which can effectively improve vulnerability detection and reduce False-positive rate and False-negative rate.

Keywords: vulnerability detection, abstract syntax tree, control flow graph, data dependency graph, code representation, deep learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 141